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1959 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Helsingfors

27 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1937

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Helsingfors

7.36 points above expected

27 points · 19.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

HJK

4.58 points below expected

13 points · 17.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Helsingfors Champion 18 11 5 2 27 43 26 +17 19.64 +7.36
2 RU-38 18 10 5 3 25 40 28 +12 18.38 +6.62
3 Haka 18 8 5 5 21 35 25 +10 19.00 +2.00
4 KuPS 18 9 3 6 21 37 30 +7 20.93 +0.07
5 HPS Helsinki 18 7 3 8 17 38 32 +6 19.53 -2.53
6 TPS Turku 18 6 4 8 16 50 51 -1 18.89 -2.89
7 VIFK 18 5 5 8 15 29 35 -6 17.80 -2.80
8 HJK 18 4 5 9 13 28 39 -11 17.58 -4.58
9 PPJ 18 4 5 9 13 26 39 -13 14.47 -1.47
10 GBK Kokkola 18 4 4 10 12 29 50 -21 13.78 -1.78

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Helsingfors 27 19.64 +7.36
2 RU-38 25 18.38 +6.62
3 Haka 21 19.00 +2.00
4 KuPS 21 20.93 +0.07
5 PPJ 13 14.47 -1.47

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 HJK 13 17.58 -4.58
2 TPS Turku 16 18.89 -2.89
3 VIFK 15 17.80 -2.80
4 HPS Helsinki 17 19.53 -2.53
5 GBK Kokkola 12 13.78 -1.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 GBK Kokkola 3 Sep 20 – Oct 11 1 in 109
2 PPJ 2 Aug 8 – Aug 16 1 in 29
3 Helsingfors 3 May 3 – May 20 1 in 19
4 RU-38 2 May 3 – May 10 1 in 13
5 Haka 3 May 24 – Jun 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 GBK Kokkola 6 Jun 21 – Aug 29 1 in 64
2 HPS Helsinki 3 Jun 15 – Jul 19 1 in 51
3 KuPS 2 Sep 27 – Oct 11 1 in 41
4 HJK 3 May 3 – May 20 1 in 24
5 PPJ 4 May 22 – Jun 12 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingfors 10 May 3 – Aug 9 1 in 93
2 RU-38 10 May 24 – Aug 30 1 in 77
3 Haka 9 May 24 – Aug 23 1 in 45
4 PPJ 4 Sep 2 – Sep 26 1 in 25
5 GBK Kokkola 3 Sep 20 – Oct 11 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 GBK Kokkola 13 May 3 – Aug 29 1 in 88
2 VIFK 6 Jun 7 – Aug 16 1 in 24
3 HJK 6 May 3 – Jun 5 1 in 13
4 TPS Turku 4 May 18 – Jun 7 1 in 12
5 Helsingfors 4 Jun 22 – Aug 16 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Helsingfors 1236 27 +37 8 6.1 +1.9
RU-38 1178 25 -15 5 5.0 +0.0
Haka 1187 21 -3 5 6.1 -1.1
KuPS 1189 21 -29 4 5.5 -1.5
HPS Helsinki 1187 17 +5 4 5.0 -1.0
TPS Turku 1141 16 -29 3 5.8 -2.8
VIFK 1133 15 +11 5 4.8 +0.2
PPJ 1023 13 +7 5 3.6 +1.4
HJK 1104 13 -14 3 4.3 -1.3
GBK Kokkola 1020 12 +31 8 3.9 +4.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GK HJK HH HAK HEL KUP PPJ RU- TT VIF
GBK Kokkola —
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
1.64
1-1-0
1.75
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
2.00
0-1-1
2.21
HJK
1-1-0
3.25
 —
0-1-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.51
1-0-1
2.07
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.72
HPS Helsinki
1-1-0
3.35
1-1-0
3.16
 —
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.72
0-0-2
2.70
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.02
Haka
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.66
 —
0-1-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
3.73
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
3.02
Helsingfors
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.90
 —
1-0-1
2.59
1-1-0
3.59
1-1-0
2.93
1-1-0
2.96
1-1-0
2.89
KuPS
0-1-1
3.77
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.89
 —
1-0-1
3.85
1-1-0
3.01
2-0-0
2.91
0-1-1
3.22
PPJ
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.03
0-1-1
1.78
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
1.66
 —
0-1-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.39
RU-38
2-0-0
3.28
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.48
 —
2-0-0
2.60
2-0-0
2.81
TPS Turku
1-0-1
3.51
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.59
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.91
 —
1-1-0
2.91
VIFK
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.47
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
2.69
0-1-1
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.35 +4.1
Allowed 0.58 -4.3
Differential 0.87 +4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%2.22%8.33%2.22%2.22%1.67%18.89%
12.22%10.00%4.44%3.89%2.22%2.22%25.00%
28.33%4.44%7.78%2.78%—2.22%25.56%
32.22%3.89%2.78%3.33%1.11%1.67%15.00%
42.22%2.22%—1.11%—0.56%6.11%
5+1.67%2.22%2.22%1.67%0.56%1.11%9.44%
Total18.89%25.00%25.56%15.00%6.11%9.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 1.97 +0.00
SD 1.61 1.61 2.37
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
1—11.11%—11.11%5.56%11.11%38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.78 -1.17
SD 1.24 1.77 1.86
CV 0.77 0.64 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%—5.56%11.11%38.89%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—11.11%———16.67%
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.17 -0.61
SD 2.06 1.58 2.97
CV 1.33 0.73 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
15.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%——11.11%——16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total27.78%11.11%22.22%33.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.78 +0.33
SD 1.71 1.35 2.35
CV 0.81 0.76 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
2——11.11%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.39 +0.56
SD 1.47 0.98 1.85
CV 0.76 0.70 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.44 +0.94
SD 1.33 1.29 1.55
CV 0.56 0.90 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
222.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
35.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.67 +0.39
SD 1.59 1.68 2.57
CV 0.77 1.01 —
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
1—11.11%——5.56%11.11%27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3———11.11%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.17 -0.72
SD 1.50 1.86 2.56
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
1—22.22%————22.22%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
Total11.11%50.00%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.56 +0.67
SD 1.77 1.10 2.11
CV 0.80 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—11.11%44.44%
3———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
Total16.67%11.11%16.67%16.67%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 2.83 -0.06
SD 1.83 2.01 2.86
CV 0.66 0.71 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%———22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
211.11%5.56%16.67%——5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%16.67%44.44%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.94 -0.33
SD 1.29 1.80 2.22
CV 0.80 0.92 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Helsingfors 1236 27 19.64 +7.36 100.0% 10 14 17 20 22 24 27
KuPS 1189 21 20.93 +0.07 53.0% 13 15 18 21 23 25 27
HPS Helsinki 1187 17 19.53 -2.53 27.0% 12 14 17 19 22 24 27
Haka 1187 21 19.00 +2.00 80.0% 11 14 17 19 21 24 26
RU-38 1178 25 18.38 +6.62 99.0% 11 14 16 18 20 23 27
TPS Turku 1141 16 18.89 -2.89 21.0% 11 14 17 19 21 24 25
VIFK 1133 15 17.80 -2.80 21.0% 9 12 16 18 20 23 24
HJK 1104 13 17.58 -4.58 11.0% 10 12 16 17 19 22 26
PPJ 1023 13 14.47 -1.47 40.0% 8 9 12 14 17 19 24
GBK Kokkola 1020 12 13.78 -1.78 35.0% 6 9 12 14 16 19 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
51.11%24.44%24.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
179 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
094.94500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.66 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.8
Wide Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Helsingfors, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Comfortable
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.46 * Some Luck: 2.46 to 3.7 * Lucky: 3.7 to 4.93 * Wild Swing: 4.93 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.71 * Close: 1.71 to 2.56 * Off: 2.56 to 3.41 * Way Off: 3.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.88 points
Lucky
03.088
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.135
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Helsingfors
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
HJK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.12
1.42
Moderate Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
78%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Few
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.64
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.17
Weak Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.63
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.59
Overconfident
0.4716421.001.52836
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Helsingfors21.00%18.00%12.00%13.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%
RU-388.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%16.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%
Haka13.00%14.00%10.00%16.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%8.00%4.00%6.00%
KuPS28.00%18.00%20.00%8.00%10.00%7.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%
HPS Helsinki14.00%17.00%8.00%12.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%10.00%6.00%—
TPS Turku6.00%10.00%14.00%14.00%17.00%8.00%11.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%
VIFK4.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%16.00%11.00%8.00%8.00%
HJK5.00%2.00%10.00%7.00%16.00%11.00%15.00%15.00%13.00%6.00%
PPJ1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%3.00%7.00%10.00%15.00%21.00%35.00%
GBK Kokkola——1.00%5.00%1.00%3.00%11.00%12.00%31.00%36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
HPS Helsinki 100% —
RU-38 99.00% 1.00%
Helsingfors 98.00% 2.00%
KuPS 98.00% 2.00%
TPS Turku 96.00% 4.00%
HJK 94.00% 6.00%
Haka 94.00% 6.00%
VIFK 92.00% 8.00%
PPJ 65.00% 35.00%
GBK Kokkola 64.00% 36.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1959-05-03 HPS Helsinki D 1-151.0 1087 1178 45.14% 25.92% 28.95%+0.02 -0.7 1
1959-05-03 @ GBK Kokkola D 1-151.0 1178 1087 28.95% 25.92% 45.14%-0.02 +0.7 1
1959-05-03 RU-38 L 0-246.0 1165 1087 62.55% 24.44% 13.01%+0.97 -22.6 0
1959-05-03 @ HJK W 2-046.0 1087 1165 13.01% 24.44% 62.55%-0.97 +22.6 2
1959-05-03 PPJ W 2-030.4 1198 1087 65.09% 23.87% 11.04%+1.16 +5.2 2
1959-05-03 @ KuPS L 0-230.4 1087 1198 11.04% 23.87% 65.09%-1.16 -5.2 0
1959-05-03 Haka W 2-032.8 1165 1151 56.90% 25.30% 17.80%+0.61 +8.0 2
1959-05-03 @ TPS Turku L 0-232.8 1151 1165 17.80% 25.30% 56.90%-0.61 -8.0 0
1959-05-03 Helsingfors L 0-244.6 1149 1134 57.02% 25.29% 17.69%+0.62 -20.7 0
1959-05-03 @ VIFK W 2-044.6 1134 1149 17.69% 25.29% 57.02%-0.62 +20.7 2
1959-05-07 VIFK L 0-242.7 1081 1129 50.48% 25.79% 23.73%+0.27 -18.5 0
1959-05-07 @ PPJ W 2-042.7 1129 1081 23.73% 25.79% 50.48%-0.27 +18.5 2
1959-05-09 TPS Turku L 1-251.2 1178 1173 56.11% 25.39% 18.50%+0.56 -10.2 1
1959-05-09 @ HPS Helsinki W 2-151.2 1173 1178 18.50% 25.39% 56.11%-0.56 +10.2 4
1959-05-10 HJK W 3-137.5 1143 1142 55.65% 25.43% 18.91%+0.54 +7.3 2
1959-05-10 @ Haka L 1-337.5 1142 1143 18.91% 25.43% 55.65%-0.54 -7.3 0
1959-05-10 KuPS W 4-349.9 1155 1203 50.33% 25.79% 23.88%+0.26 +4.7 4
1959-05-10 @ Helsingfors L 3-449.9 1203 1155 23.88% 25.79% 50.33%-0.26 -4.7 2
1959-05-10 GBK Kokkola W 5-344.0 1109 1086 57.81% 25.20% 16.99%+0.66 +5.6 4
1959-05-10 @ RU-38 L 3-544.0 1086 1109 16.99% 25.20% 57.81%-0.66 -5.6 1
1959-05-18 Haka W 1-035.8 1168 1150 57.30% 25.26% 17.44%+0.63 +4.2 3
1959-05-18 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-135.8 1150 1168 17.44% 25.26% 57.30%-0.63 -4.2 2
1959-05-18 RU-38 W 2-031.0 1199 1115 63.00% 24.35% 12.65%+1.00 +5.9 4
1959-05-18 @ KuPS L 0-231.0 1115 1199 12.65% 24.35% 63.00%-1.00 -5.9 4
1959-05-18 PPJ D 3-360.2 1183 1063 65.70% 23.71% 10.60%+1.20 -1.6 5
1959-05-18 @ TPS Turku D 3-360.2 1063 1183 10.60% 23.71% 65.70%-1.20 +1.6 1
1959-05-18 GBK Kokkola D 0-048.3 1147 1080 61.63% 24.62% 13.75%+0.90 -2.4 3
1959-05-18 @ VIFK D 0-048.3 1080 1147 13.75% 24.62% 61.63%-0.90 +2.4 2
1959-05-20 HJK W 1-035.6 1160 1135 57.97% 25.18% 16.85%+0.67 +4.1 6
1959-05-20 @ Helsingfors L 0-135.6 1135 1160 16.85% 25.18% 57.97%-0.67 -4.1 0
1959-05-22 HPS Helsinki L 0-338.0 1065 1172 42.96% 25.92% 31.13%-0.07 -23.3 1
1959-05-22 @ PPJ W 3-038.0 1172 1065 31.13% 25.92% 42.96%+0.07 +23.4 5
1959-05-24 Haka L 1-444.1 1083 1146 48.56% 25.86% 25.58%+0.18 -21.9 2
1959-05-24 @ GBK Kokkola W 4-144.1 1146 1083 25.58% 25.86% 48.56%-0.18 +21.8 4
1959-05-24 TPS Turku D 2-255.4 1131 1181 50.07% 25.80% 24.13%+0.25 -0.8 1
1959-05-24 @ HJK D 2-255.4 1181 1131 24.13% 25.80% 50.07%-0.25 +0.8 6
1959-05-24 VIFK D 1-151.4 1205 1145 61.08% 24.72% 14.21%+0.87 -2.1 5
1959-05-24 @ KuPS D 1-151.4 1145 1205 14.21% 24.72% 61.08%-0.87 +2.1 4
1959-05-24 Helsingfors D 1-151.0 1109 1164 49.58% 25.82% 24.59%+0.22 -1.0 5
1959-05-24 @ RU-38 D 1-151.0 1164 1109 24.59% 25.82% 49.58%-0.22 +1.1 7
1959-05-31 HJK D 1-151.0 1061 1130 47.89% 25.87% 26.23%+0.15 -0.9 3
1959-05-31 @ GBK Kokkola D 1-151.0 1130 1061 26.23% 25.87% 47.89%-0.15 +0.9 2
1959-05-31 KuPS W 1-037.5 1168 1202 51.92% 25.71% 22.37%+0.34 +5.2 6
1959-05-31 @ Haka L 0-137.5 1202 1168 22.37% 25.71% 51.92%-0.34 -5.2 5
1959-05-31 Helsingfors L 1-441.8 1041 1165 40.83% 25.90% 33.28%-0.16 -18.9 1
1959-05-31 @ PPJ W 4-141.8 1165 1041 33.28% 25.90% 40.83%+0.16 +18.9 9
1959-05-31 RU-38 L 1-350.2 1182 1108 62.25% 24.50% 13.25%+0.95 -19.5 6
1959-05-31 @ TPS Turku W 3-150.2 1108 1182 13.25% 24.50% 62.25%-0.95 +19.5 7
1959-05-31 HPS Helsinki W 2-034.9 1147 1196 50.26% 25.80% 23.95%+0.26 +10.3 6
1959-05-31 @ VIFK L 0-234.9 1196 1147 23.95% 25.80% 50.26%-0.26 -10.3 5
1959-06-05 HJK W 4-027.8 1185 1131 60.63% 24.79% 14.58%+0.84 +12.8 7
1959-06-05 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-427.8 1131 1185 14.58% 24.79% 60.63%-0.84 -12.8 2
1959-06-07 PPJ W 3-240.8 1173 1022 67.79% 23.09% 9.11%+1.38 +2.0 8
1959-06-07 @ Haka L 2-340.8 1022 1173 9.11% 23.09% 67.79%-1.38 -2.0 1
1959-06-07 GBK Kokkola W 3-134.4 1184 1060 65.96% 23.64% 10.40%+1.22 +4.2 11
1959-06-07 @ Helsingfors L 1-334.4 1060 1184 10.40% 23.64% 65.96%-1.22 -4.2 3
1959-06-07 TPS Turku W 7-234.0 1197 1163 58.86% 25.06% 16.08%+0.73 +11.9 7
1959-06-07 @ KuPS L 2-734.0 1163 1197 16.08% 25.06% 58.86%-0.73 -11.9 6
1959-06-07 RU-38 L 1-251.8 1157 1127 58.40% 25.12% 16.48%+0.70 -10.6 6
1959-06-07 @ VIFK W 2-151.8 1127 1157 16.48% 25.12% 58.40%-0.70 +10.6 9
1959-06-12 PPJ W 1-033.7 1118 1020 64.07% 24.11% 11.81%+1.08 +2.9 4
1959-06-12 @ HJK L 0-133.7 1020 1118 11.81% 24.11% 64.07%-1.08 -2.9 1
1959-06-14 KuPS D 2-255.3 1056 1209 36.68% 25.79% 37.53%-0.33 +0.0 4
1959-06-14 @ GBK Kokkola D 2-255.3 1209 1056 37.53% 25.79% 36.68%+0.33 -0.0 8
1959-06-14 Haka D 1-151.1 1138 1175 51.59% 25.73% 22.67%+0.32 -1.2 10
1959-06-14 @ RU-38 D 1-151.1 1175 1138 22.67% 25.73% 51.59%-0.32 +1.2 9
1959-06-14 VIFK W 2-033.1 1151 1146 56.00% 25.40% 18.60%+0.56 +8.3 8
1959-06-14 @ TPS Turku L 0-233.1 1146 1151 18.60% 25.40% 56.00%-0.56 -8.3 6
1959-06-15 Helsingfors L 2-355.9 1198 1188 56.57% 25.34% 18.09%+0.59 -9.7 7
1959-06-15 @ HPS Helsinki W 3-255.9 1188 1198 18.09% 25.34% 56.57%-0.59 +9.7 13
1959-06-21 HJK W 2-137.8 1209 1121 63.35% 24.28% 12.37%+1.03 +2.9 10
1959-06-21 @ KuPS L 1-237.8 1121 1209 12.37% 24.28% 63.35%-1.03 -2.9 4
1959-06-21 GBK Kokkola W 5-134.7 1017 1056 51.46% 25.74% 22.80%+0.32 +15.6 3
1959-06-21 @ PPJ L 1-534.7 1056 1017 22.80% 25.74% 51.46%-0.32 -15.6 4
1959-06-21 HPS Helsinki W 3-246.3 1137 1188 49.94% 25.81% 24.25%+0.24 +4.9 12
1959-06-21 @ RU-38 L 2-346.3 1188 1137 24.25% 25.81% 49.94%-0.24 -4.9 7
1959-06-21 Haka D 2-255.4 1138 1176 51.46% 25.74% 22.80%+0.32 -0.9 7
1959-06-21 @ VIFK D 2-255.4 1176 1138 22.80% 25.74% 51.46%-0.32 +0.9 10
1959-06-22 TPS Turku D 5-564.3 1198 1159 59.22% 25.01% 15.77%+0.75 -1.0 14
1959-06-22 @ Helsingfors D 5-564.3 1159 1198 15.77% 25.01% 59.22%-0.75 +0.9 9
1959-07-18 VIFK W 6-237.1 1118 1137 53.58% 25.61% 20.81%+0.42 +12.3 6
1959-07-18 @ HJK L 2-637.1 1137 1118 20.81% 25.61% 53.58%-0.42 -12.3 7
1959-07-19 Helsingfors D 2-255.5 1177 1197 53.55% 25.61% 20.84%+0.42 -1.1 11
1959-07-19 @ Haka D 2-255.5 1197 1177 20.84% 25.61% 53.55%-0.42 +1.0 15
1959-07-19 KuPS L 1-347.8 1184 1212 52.57% 25.67% 21.76%+0.37 -16.6 7
1959-07-19 @ HPS Helsinki W 3-147.8 1212 1184 21.76% 25.67% 52.57%-0.37 +16.6 12
1959-07-19 GBK Kokkola W 5-447.3 1160 1040 65.69% 23.71% 10.60%+1.20 +2.3 11
1959-07-19 @ TPS Turku L 4-547.3 1040 1160 10.60% 23.71% 65.69%-1.20 -2.3 4
1959-07-21 RU-38 L 1-540.8 1033 1142 42.83% 25.92% 31.25%-0.08 -25.4 3
1959-07-21 @ PPJ W 5-140.8 1142 1033 31.25% 25.92% 42.83%+0.08 +25.4 14
1959-08-07 GBK Kokkola W 2-029.9 1167 1038 66.33% 23.53% 10.13%+1.25 +4.8 9
1959-08-07 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-229.9 1038 1167 10.13% 23.53% 66.33%-1.25 -4.8 4
1959-08-08 KuPS W 4-037.6 1008 1229 27.87% 25.23% 46.91%-0.71 +32.6 5
1959-08-08 @ PPJ L 0-437.6 1229 1008 46.91% 25.23% 27.87%+0.71 -32.7 12
1959-08-09 TPS Turku W 3-244.2 1176 1162 56.93% 25.30% 17.77%+0.61 +3.8 13
1959-08-09 @ Haka L 2-344.2 1162 1176 17.77% 25.30% 56.93%-0.61 -3.8 11
1959-08-09 VIFK D 2-255.8 1198 1125 62.15% 24.52% 13.33%+0.94 -1.7 16
1959-08-09 @ Helsingfors D 2-255.8 1125 1198 13.33% 24.52% 62.15%-0.94 +1.7 8
1959-08-09 HJK D 1-151.3 1167 1130 59.05% 25.03% 15.91%+0.74 -1.9 15
1959-08-09 @ RU-38 D 1-151.3 1130 1167 15.91% 25.03% 59.05%-0.74 +1.9 7
1959-08-16 RU-38 L 1-539.9 1033 1165 39.68% 25.87% 34.44%-0.21 -23.9 4
1959-08-16 @ GBK Kokkola W 5-139.9 1165 1033 34.44% 25.87% 39.68%+0.21 +23.9 17
1959-08-16 Haka D 3-359.6 1132 1180 50.39% 25.79% 23.82%+0.26 -0.7 8
1959-08-16 @ HJK D 3-359.6 1180 1132 23.82% 25.79% 50.39%-0.26 +0.7 14
1959-08-16 Helsingfors W 3-030.8 1196 1196 55.54% 25.44% 19.02%+0.53 +12.3 14
1959-08-16 @ KuPS L 0-330.8 1196 1196 19.02% 25.44% 55.54%-0.53 -12.3 16
1959-08-16 HPS Helsinki L 2-549.5 1159 1172 54.20% 25.56% 20.24%+0.46 -20.9 11
1959-08-16 @ TPS Turku W 5-249.5 1172 1159 20.24% 25.56% 54.20%-0.46 +20.9 11
1959-08-16 PPJ L 1-252.9 1127 1040 63.20% 24.31% 12.49%+1.01 -11.4 8
1959-08-16 @ VIFK W 2-152.9 1040 1127 12.49% 24.31% 63.20%-1.01 +11.4 7
1959-08-23 VIFK L 1-344.9 1009 1115 43.22% 25.92% 30.86%-0.06 -14.0 4
1959-08-23 @ GBK Kokkola W 3-144.9 1115 1009 30.86% 25.92% 43.22%+0.06 +14.0 10
1959-08-23 HPS Helsinki W 4-029.8 1181 1193 54.34% 25.55% 20.11%+0.47 +16.9 16
1959-08-23 @ Haka L 0-429.8 1193 1181 20.11% 25.55% 54.34%-0.47 -16.9 11
1959-08-23 TPS Turku L 1-740.7 1052 1138 45.77% 25.91% 28.31%+0.05 -38.9 7
1959-08-23 @ PPJ W 7-140.7 1138 1052 28.31% 25.91% 45.77%-0.05 +38.9 13
1959-08-23 KuPS D 2-255.5 1189 1208 53.55% 25.61% 20.84%+0.42 -1.1 18
1959-08-23 @ RU-38 D 2-255.5 1208 1189 20.84% 25.61% 53.55%-0.42 +1.1 15
1959-08-25 Helsingfors L 0-242.6 1132 1184 49.88% 25.81% 24.31%+0.24 -18.3 8
1959-08-25 @ HJK W 2-042.6 1184 1132 24.31% 25.81% 49.88%-0.24 +18.3 18
1959-08-29 GBK Kokkola W 5-235.8 1113 995 65.56% 23.75% 10.70%+1.19 +5.3 10
1959-08-29 @ HJK L 2-535.8 995 1113 10.70% 23.75% 65.56%-1.19 -5.3 4
1959-08-30 VIFK W 6-339.7 1176 1129 59.94% 24.90% 15.16%+0.79 +6.8 13
1959-08-30 @ HPS Helsinki L 3-639.7 1129 1176 15.16% 24.90% 59.94%-0.79 -6.8 10
1959-08-30 Haka W 2-033.0 1209 1198 56.71% 25.32% 17.97%+0.60 +8.1 17
1959-08-30 @ KuPS L 0-233.0 1198 1209 17.97% 25.32% 56.71%-0.60 -8.1 16
1959-08-30 TPS Turku W 5-344.4 1188 1177 56.68% 25.33% 17.99%+0.60 +5.9 20
1959-08-30 @ RU-38 L 3-544.4 1177 1188 17.99% 25.33% 56.68%-0.60 -5.9 13
1959-09-02 PPJ D 1-152.1 1202 1013 70.19% 22.25% 7.56%+1.59 -3.0 19
1959-09-02 @ Helsingfors D 1-152.1 1013 1202 7.56% 22.25% 70.19%-1.59 +3.0 8
1959-09-11 PPJ D 3-360.5 1183 1016 68.82% 22.75% 8.43%+1.47 -1.8 14
1959-09-11 @ HPS Helsinki D 3-360.5 1016 1183 8.43% 22.75% 68.82%-1.47 +1.8 9
1959-09-13 HJK W 6-028.2 1171 1119 60.39% 24.83% 14.78%+0.82 +18.9 15
1959-09-13 @ TPS Turku L 0-628.2 1119 1171 14.78% 24.83% 60.39%-0.82 -18.9 10
1959-09-13 KuPS W 2-143.4 1122 1218 44.59% 25.92% 29.49%+0.00 +6.0 12
1959-09-13 @ VIFK L 1-243.4 1218 1122 29.49% 25.92% 44.59%+0.00 -6.0 17
1959-09-15 RU-38 W 3-030.6 1199 1194 56.08% 25.39% 18.53%+0.56 +12.1 21
1959-09-15 @ Helsingfors L 0-330.6 1194 1199 18.53% 25.39% 56.08%-0.56 -12.1 20
1959-09-17 HPS Helsinki D 1-151.0 1100 1181 46.39% 25.90% 27.71%+0.08 -0.8 11
1959-09-17 @ HJK D 1-151.0 1181 1100 27.71% 25.90% 46.39%-0.08 +0.8 15
1959-09-20 Helsingfors W 2-148.3 990 1211 27.84% 25.23% 46.93%-0.71 +8.6 6
1959-09-20 @ GBK Kokkola L 1-248.3 1211 990 46.93% 25.23% 27.84%+0.71 -8.6 21
1959-09-20 Haka D 0-048.0 1018 1190 34.09% 25.67% 40.23%-0.43 +0.3 10
1959-09-20 @ PPJ D 0-048.0 1190 1018 40.23% 25.67% 34.09%+0.43 -0.3 17
1959-09-20 VIFK W 2-031.7 1182 1128 60.53% 24.81% 14.66%+0.83 +6.8 22
1959-09-20 @ RU-38 L 0-231.7 1128 1182 14.66% 24.81% 60.53%-0.83 -6.8 12
1959-09-20 KuPS L 0-243.7 1190 1211 53.27% 25.63% 21.10%+0.41 -19.4 15
1959-09-20 @ TPS Turku W 2-043.7 1211 1190 21.10% 25.63% 53.27%-0.41 +19.4 19
1959-09-26 HJK W 2-035.9 1018 1099 46.38% 25.90% 27.71%+0.08 +11.5 12
1959-09-26 @ PPJ L 0-235.9 1099 1018 27.71% 25.90% 46.38%-0.08 -11.5 11
1959-09-27 RU-38 L 1-251.1 1189 1189 55.64% 25.43% 18.93%+0.54 -10.1 17
1959-09-27 @ Haka W 2-151.1 1189 1189 18.93% 25.43% 55.64%-0.54 +10.1 24
1959-09-27 HPS Helsinki W 2-139.5 1203 1182 57.60% 25.22% 17.18%+0.65 +3.9 23
1959-09-27 @ Helsingfors L 1-239.5 1182 1203 17.18% 25.22% 57.60%-0.65 -3.9 15
1959-09-27 GBK Kokkola L 2-359.4 1231 999 72.63% 21.23% 6.14%+1.83 -12.2 19
1959-09-27 @ KuPS W 3-259.4 999 1231 6.14% 21.23% 72.63%-1.83 +12.2 8
1959-09-27 TPS Turku D 2-255.3 1122 1170 50.31% 25.79% 23.90%+0.26 -0.8 13
1959-09-27 @ VIFK D 2-255.3 1170 1122 23.90% 25.79% 50.31%-0.26 +0.8 16
1959-10-10 RU-38 W 4-030.1 1178 1199 53.39% 25.62% 20.99%+0.41 +17.5 17
1959-10-10 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-430.1 1199 1178 20.99% 25.62% 53.39%-0.41 -17.5 24
1959-10-11 PPJ W 2-033.7 1011 1029 53.64% 25.60% 20.75%+0.43 +9.1 10
1959-10-11 @ GBK Kokkola L 0-233.7 1029 1011 20.75% 25.60% 53.64%-0.43 -9.1 12
1959-10-11 VIFK W 4-133.6 1179 1121 60.96% 24.74% 14.30%+0.86 +8.1 19
1959-10-11 @ Haka L 1-433.6 1121 1179 14.30% 24.74% 60.96%-0.86 -8.1 13
1959-10-11 KuPS W 6-034.4 1087 1219 39.79% 25.88% 34.33%-0.20 +37.6 13
1959-10-11 @ HJK L 0-634.4 1219 1087 34.33% 25.88% 39.79%+0.20 -37.6 19
1959-10-11 Helsingfors L 1-445.2 1171 1207 51.78% 25.72% 22.49%+0.33 -23.2 16
1959-10-11 @ TPS Turku W 4-145.2 1207 1171 22.49% 25.72% 51.78%-0.33 +23.2 25
1959-10-22 GBK Kokkola W 3-026.6 1187 1020 68.85% 22.74% 8.41%+1.47 +5.8 21
1959-10-22 @ Haka L 0-326.6 1020 1187 8.41% 22.74% 68.85%-1.47 -5.8 10
1959-10-25 TPS Turku W 4-353.0 1014 1148 39.46% 25.87% 34.68%-0.22 +6.3 12
1959-10-25 @ GBK Kokkola L 3-453.0 1148 1014 34.68% 25.87% 39.46%+0.22 -6.3 16
1959-10-25 Haka W 3-136.7 1230 1193 59.03% 25.04% 15.93%+0.74 +6.3 27
1959-10-25 @ Helsingfors L 1-336.7 1193 1230 15.93% 25.04% 59.03%-0.74 -6.3 21
1959-10-25 HPS Helsinki W 3-138.1 1181 1195 54.09% 25.57% 20.34%+0.45 +7.8 21
1959-10-25 @ KuPS L 1-338.1 1195 1181 20.34% 25.57% 54.09%-0.45 -7.8 17
1959-10-25 PPJ D 1-151.9 1181 1020 68.45% 22.88% 8.67%+1.43 -2.8 25
1959-10-25 @ RU-38 D 1-151.9 1020 1181 8.67% 22.88% 68.45%-1.43 +2.8 13
1959-10-25 HJK W 5-029.5 1113 1125 54.28% 25.55% 20.17%+0.46 +20.9 15
1959-10-25 @ VIFK L 0-529.5 1125 1113 20.17% 25.55% 54.28%-0.46 -20.9 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1959-09-27 6.14% GBK Kokkola 999 3 @ KuPS 1231 2
2 1959-08-16 12.49% PPJ 1040 2 @ VIFK 1127 1
3 1959-05-03 13.01% RU-38 1087 2 @ HJK 1165 0
4 1959-05-31 13.25% RU-38 1108 3 @ TPS Turku 1182 1
5 1959-06-07 16.48% RU-38 1127 2 @ VIFK 1157 1
6 1959-05-03 17.69% Helsingfors 1134 2 @ VIFK 1149 0
7 1959-06-15 18.09% Helsingfors 1188 3 @ HPS Helsinki 1198 2
8 1959-05-09 18.50% TPS Turku 1173 2 @ HPS Helsinki 1178 1
9 1959-09-27 18.93% RU-38 1189 2 @ Haka 1189 1
10 1959-08-16 20.24% HPS Helsinki 1172 5 @ TPS Turku 1159 2
11 1959-09-20 21.10% KuPS 1211 2 @ TPS Turku 1190 0
12 1959-07-19 21.76% KuPS 1212 3 @ HPS Helsinki 1184 1
13 1959-10-11 22.49% Helsingfors 1207 4 @ TPS Turku 1171 1
14 1959-05-07 23.73% VIFK 1129 2 @ PPJ 1081 0
15 1959-08-25 24.31% Helsingfors 1184 2 @ HJK 1132 0
16 1959-05-24 25.58% Haka 1146 4 @ GBK Kokkola 1083 1
17 1959-09-20 27.84% @ GBK Kokkola 990 2 Helsingfors 1211 1
18 1959-08-08 27.87% @ PPJ 1008 4 KuPS 1229 0
19 1959-08-23 28.31% TPS Turku 1138 7 @ PPJ 1052 1
20 1959-08-23 30.86% VIFK 1115 3 @ GBK Kokkola 1009 1
21 1959-05-22 31.13% HPS Helsinki 1172 3 @ PPJ 1065 0
22 1959-07-21 31.25% RU-38 1142 5 @ PPJ 1033 1
23 1959-05-31 33.28% Helsingfors 1165 4 @ PPJ 1041 1
24 1959-08-16 34.44% RU-38 1165 5 @ GBK Kokkola 1033 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1959-08-23 38.86 TPS Turku 7 1138 28.31% @ PPJ 1 1052 45.77% 25.91%
2 1959-10-11 37.60 @ HJK 6 1087 39.79% KuPS 0 1219 34.33% 25.88%
3 1959-08-08 32.65 @ PPJ 4 1008 27.87% KuPS 0 1229 46.91% 25.23%
4 1959-07-21 25.37 RU-38 5 1142 31.25% @ PPJ 1 1033 42.83% 25.92%
5 1959-08-16 23.86 RU-38 5 1165 34.44% @ GBK Kokkola 1 1033 39.68% 25.87%
6 1959-05-22 23.35 HPS Helsinki 3 1172 31.13% @ PPJ 0 1065 42.96% 25.92%
7 1959-10-11 23.15 Helsingfors 4 1207 22.49% @ TPS Turku 1 1171 51.78% 25.72%
8 1959-05-03 22.60 RU-38 2 1087 13.01% @ HJK 0 1165 62.55% 24.44%
9 1959-05-24 21.86 Haka 4 1146 25.58% @ GBK Kokkola 1 1083 48.56% 25.86%
10 1959-08-16 20.91 HPS Helsinki 5 1172 20.24% @ TPS Turku 2 1159 54.20% 25.56%
11 1959-10-25 20.86 @ VIFK 5 1113 54.28% HJK 0 1125 20.17% 25.55%
12 1959-05-03 20.68 Helsingfors 2 1134 17.69% @ VIFK 0 1149 57.02% 25.29%
13 1959-05-31 19.48 RU-38 3 1108 13.25% @ TPS Turku 1 1182 62.25% 24.50%
14 1959-09-20 19.40 KuPS 2 1211 21.10% @ TPS Turku 0 1190 53.27% 25.63%
15 1959-09-13 18.93 @ TPS Turku 6 1171 60.39% HJK 0 1119 14.78% 24.83%
16 1959-05-31 18.90 Helsingfors 4 1165 33.28% @ PPJ 1 1041 40.83% 25.90%
17 1959-05-07 18.48 VIFK 2 1129 23.73% @ PPJ 0 1081 50.48% 25.79%
18 1959-08-25 18.28 Helsingfors 2 1184 24.31% @ HJK 0 1132 49.88% 25.81%
19 1959-10-10 17.50 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1178 53.39% RU-38 0 1199 20.99% 25.62%
20 1959-08-23 16.89 @ Haka 4 1181 54.34% HPS Helsinki 0 1193 20.11% 25.55%
21 1959-07-19 16.60 KuPS 3 1212 21.76% @ HPS Helsinki 1 1184 52.57% 25.67%
22 1959-06-21 15.60 @ PPJ 5 1017 51.46% GBK Kokkola 1 1056 22.80% 25.74%
23 1959-08-23 14.00 VIFK 3 1115 30.86% @ GBK Kokkola 1 1009 43.22% 25.92%
24 1959-06-05 12.78 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1185 60.63% HJK 0 1131 14.58% 24.79%
25 1959-08-16 12.34 @ KuPS 3 1196 55.54% Helsingfors 0 1196 19.02% 25.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1959-06-22 64.3 @ Helsingfors 5 1198 59.22% TPS Turku 5 1159 15.77% 25.01%
2 1959-09-11 60.5 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1183 68.82% PPJ 3 1016 8.43% 22.75%
3 1959-05-18 60.2 @ TPS Turku 3 1183 65.70% PPJ 3 1063 10.60% 23.71%
4 1959-08-16 59.6 @ HJK 3 1132 50.39% Haka 3 1180 23.82% 25.79%
5 1959-09-27 59.4 GBK Kokkola 3 999 6.14% @ KuPS 2 1231 72.63% 21.23%
6 1959-06-15 55.9 Helsingfors 3 1188 18.09% @ HPS Helsinki 2 1198 56.57% 25.34%
7 1959-08-09 55.8 @ Helsingfors 2 1198 62.15% VIFK 2 1125 13.33% 24.52%
8 1959-07-19 55.5 @ Haka 2 1177 53.55% Helsingfors 2 1197 20.84% 25.61%
9 1959-08-23 55.5 @ RU-38 2 1189 53.55% KuPS 2 1208 20.84% 25.61%
10 1959-05-24 55.4 @ HJK 2 1131 50.07% TPS Turku 2 1181 24.13% 25.80%
11 1959-06-21 55.4 @ VIFK 2 1138 51.46% Haka 2 1176 22.80% 25.74%
12 1959-06-14 55.3 @ GBK Kokkola 2 1056 36.68% KuPS 2 1209 37.53% 25.79%
13 1959-09-27 55.3 @ VIFK 2 1122 50.31% TPS Turku 2 1170 23.90% 25.79%
14 1959-10-25 53.0 @ GBK Kokkola 4 1014 39.46% TPS Turku 3 1148 34.68% 25.87%
15 1959-08-16 52.9 PPJ 2 1040 12.49% @ VIFK 1 1127 63.20% 24.31%
16 1959-09-02 52.1 @ Helsingfors 1 1202 70.19% PPJ 1 1013 7.56% 22.25%
17 1959-10-25 51.9 @ RU-38 1 1181 68.45% PPJ 1 1020 8.67% 22.88%
18 1959-06-07 51.8 RU-38 2 1127 16.48% @ VIFK 1 1157 58.40% 25.12%
19 1959-05-24 51.4 @ KuPS 1 1205 61.08% VIFK 1 1145 14.21% 24.72%
20 1959-08-09 51.3 @ RU-38 1 1167 59.05% HJK 1 1130 15.91% 25.03%
21 1959-05-09 51.2 TPS Turku 2 1173 18.50% @ HPS Helsinki 1 1178 56.11% 25.39%
22 1959-06-14 51.1 @ RU-38 1 1138 51.59% Haka 1 1175 22.67% 25.73%
23 1959-09-27 51.1 RU-38 2 1189 18.93% @ Haka 1 1189 55.64% 25.43%
24 1959-05-03 51.0 @ GBK Kokkola 1 1087 45.14% HPS Helsinki 1 1178 28.95% 25.92%
25 1959-05-24 51.0 @ RU-38 1 1109 49.58% Helsingfors 1 1164 24.59% 25.82%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1959-10-22 26.6 @ Haka 3 1187 68.85% GBK Kokkola 0 1020 8.41% 22.74%
2 1959-06-05 27.8 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1185 60.63% HJK 0 1131 14.58% 24.79%
3 1959-09-13 28.2 @ TPS Turku 6 1171 60.39% HJK 0 1119 14.78% 24.83%
4 1959-10-25 29.5 @ VIFK 5 1113 54.28% HJK 0 1125 20.17% 25.55%
5 1959-08-23 29.8 @ Haka 4 1181 54.34% HPS Helsinki 0 1193 20.11% 25.55%
6 1959-08-07 29.9 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1167 66.33% GBK Kokkola 0 1038 10.13% 23.53%
7 1959-10-10 30.1 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1178 53.39% RU-38 0 1199 20.99% 25.62%
8 1959-05-03 30.4 @ KuPS 2 1198 65.09% PPJ 0 1087 11.04% 23.87%
9 1959-09-15 30.6 @ Helsingfors 3 1199 56.08% RU-38 0 1194 18.53% 25.39%
10 1959-08-16 30.8 @ KuPS 3 1196 55.54% Helsingfors 0 1196 19.02% 25.44%
11 1959-05-18 31.0 @ KuPS 2 1199 63.00% RU-38 0 1115 12.65% 24.35%
12 1959-09-20 31.7 @ RU-38 2 1182 60.53% VIFK 0 1128 14.66% 24.81%
13 1959-05-03 32.8 @ TPS Turku 2 1165 56.90% Haka 0 1151 17.80% 25.30%
14 1959-08-30 33.0 @ KuPS 2 1209 56.71% Haka 0 1198 17.97% 25.32%
15 1959-06-14 33.1 @ TPS Turku 2 1151 56.00% VIFK 0 1146 18.60% 25.40%
16 1959-10-11 33.6 @ Haka 4 1179 60.96% VIFK 1 1121 14.30% 24.74%
17 1959-06-12 33.7 @ HJK 1 1118 64.07% PPJ 0 1020 11.81% 24.11%
18 1959-10-11 33.7 @ GBK Kokkola 2 1011 53.64% PPJ 0 1029 20.75% 25.60%
19 1959-06-07 34.0 @ KuPS 7 1197 58.86% TPS Turku 2 1163 16.08% 25.06%
20 1959-06-07 34.4 @ Helsingfors 3 1184 65.96% GBK Kokkola 1 1060 10.40% 23.64%
21 1959-10-11 34.4 @ HJK 6 1087 39.79% KuPS 0 1219 34.33% 25.88%
22 1959-06-21 34.7 @ PPJ 5 1017 51.46% GBK Kokkola 1 1056 22.80% 25.74%
23 1959-05-31 34.9 @ VIFK 2 1147 50.26% HPS Helsinki 0 1196 23.95% 25.80%
24 1959-05-20 35.6 @ Helsingfors 1 1160 57.97% HJK 0 1135 16.85% 25.18%
25 1959-05-18 35.8 @ HPS Helsinki 1 1168 57.30% Haka 0 1150 17.44% 25.26%