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1958 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

KuPS

26 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1956

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KuPS

6.20 points above expected

26 points · 19.80 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KTP

6.73 points below expected

8 points · 14.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KuPS Champion 18 13 0 5 26 40 22 +18 19.80 +6.20
2 HPS Helsinki 18 11 4 3 26 38 26 +12 22.27 +3.73
3 Helsingfors 18 10 1 7 21 36 32 +4 15.21 +5.79
4 TPS Turku 18 9 2 7 20 47 34 +13 20.50 -0.50
5 HJK 18 9 2 7 20 45 34 +11 21.09 -1.09
6 VIFK 18 7 3 8 17 36 35 +1 15.25 +1.75
7 Haka 18 6 4 8 16 28 27 +1 18.42 -2.42
8 Ilves-Kissat 18 7 2 9 16 33 41 -8 18.36 -2.36
9 VPS 18 3 4 11 10 24 48 -24 14.37 -4.37
10 KTP 18 3 2 13 8 27 55 -28 14.73 -6.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KuPS 26 19.80 +6.20
2 Helsingfors 21 15.21 +5.79
3 HPS Helsinki 26 22.27 +3.73
4 VIFK 17 15.25 +1.75
5 TPS Turku 20 20.50 -0.50

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KTP 8 14.73 -6.73
2 VPS 10 14.37 -4.37
3 Haka 16 18.42 -2.42
4 Ilves-Kissat 16 18.36 -2.36
5 HJK 20 21.09 -1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KuPS 8 Jun 29 – Oct 5 1 in 183
2 Helsingfors 3 Aug 10 – Sep 9 1 in 63
3 VIFK 3 Oct 5 – Oct 26 1 in 17
4 Ilves-Kissat 3 May 25 – Jun 5 1 in 14
5 HJK 3 May 4 – May 15 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HJK 3 Aug 28 – Sep 21 1 in 32
2 VIFK 4 Jun 8 – Aug 3 1 in 30
3 Ilves-Kissat 5 Aug 10 – Sep 28 1 in 21
4 TPS Turku 3 Sep 28 – Oct 18 1 in 14
5 Haka 2 May 4 – May 11 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HPS Helsinki 10 Jun 1 – Sep 28 1 in 62
2 VIFK 5 Sep 21 – Oct 26 1 in 29
3 KuPS 8 Jun 29 – Oct 5 1 in 27
4 Helsingfors 3 Aug 10 – Sep 9 1 in 16
5 HJK 4 Sep 28 – Oct 26 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HJK 5 Aug 3 – Sep 21 1 in 71
2 VPS 8 May 25 – Aug 28 1 in 46
3 KTP 8 Aug 10 – Oct 26 1 in 31
4 TPS Turku 4 Sep 21 – Oct 18 1 in 17
5 VIFK 6 Jun 5 – Aug 10 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KuPS 1325 26 +66 8 6.0 +2.0
HPS Helsinki 1297 26 -4 6 6.2 -0.2
Helsingfors 1169 21 +9 5 5.3 -0.3
HJK 1238 20 +27 7 6.0 +1.0
TPS Turku 1237 20 -56 3 5.8 -2.8
VIFK 1202 17 +131 9 4.7 +4.3
Haka 1186 16 -13 5 4.2 +0.8
Ilves-Kissat 1111 16 -22 5 4.5 +0.5
VPS 981 10 -55 1 2.9 -1.9
KTP 985 8 -84 1 4.4 -3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HH HAK HEL ILV KTP KUP TT VIF VPS
HJK —
0-0-2
2.78
0-1-1
3.12
1-0-1
3.75
1-0-1
3.40
2-0-0
3.42
0-0-2
3.07
2-0-0
2.56
1-1-0
3.81
2-0-0
4.28
HPS Helsinki
2-0-0
2.94
 —
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
3.95
1-1-0
3.66
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.24
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.85
1-1-0
3.82
Haka
1-1-0
2.60
0-1-1
2.38
 —
0-0-2
3.40
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
3.23
1-0-1
4.02
Helsingfors
1-0-1
1.98
1-0-1
1.78
2-0-0
2.33
 —
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.04
1-0-1
1.78
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.83
Ilves-Kissat
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
3.35
 —
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
3.01
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
3.25
KTP
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.73
0-0-2
2.40
 —
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
2.22
0-2-0
2.99
KuPS
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
3.69
2-0-0
2.71
2-0-0
3.48
 —
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
3.69
TPS Turku
0-0-2
3.16
0-1-1
2.41
0-1-1
3.29
1-0-1
3.95
1-0-1
3.18
2-0-0
3.35
1-0-1
2.77
 —
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.85
VIFK
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-1
1.88
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
2.04
 —
1-1-0
2.96
VPS
0-0-2
1.45
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-1
1.70
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.47
0-2-0
2.74
0-0-2
2.04
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
2.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.53 +5.7
Allowed 0.81 -5.3
Differential 0.88 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%5.00%6.67%2.22%1.11%0.56%17.78%
15.00%3.33%3.89%3.89%5.56%2.22%23.89%
26.67%3.89%4.44%6.11%3.33%2.78%27.22%
32.22%3.89%6.11%3.33%——15.56%
41.11%5.56%3.33%———10.00%
5+0.56%2.22%2.78%———5.56%
Total17.78%23.89%27.22%15.56%10.00%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 1.97 +0.00
SD 1.52 1.52 2.32
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.89 +0.61
SD 1.79 1.32 2.50
CV 0.72 0.70 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.44 +0.67
SD 1.18 1.15 1.46
CV 0.56 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.50 +0.06
SD 1.34 1.29 1.92
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%11.11%——27.78%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
35.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.78 +0.22
SD 1.53 1.17 2.02
CV 0.77 0.66 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%27.78%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.28 -0.44
SD 1.69 1.53 2.62
CV 0.92 0.67 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
15.56%5.56%—11.11%16.67%—38.89%
2——5.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%16.67%22.22%22.22%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.06 -1.56
SD 0.86 2.04 2.18
CV 0.57 0.67 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%———5.56%—11.11%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
3——22.22%———22.22%
4—16.67%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%27.78%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.22 +1.00
SD 1.70 1.00 2.00
CV 0.76 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
1——11.11%———11.11%
216.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
Total16.67%16.67%44.44%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 1.89 +0.72
SD 1.94 1.32 2.44
CV 0.74 0.70 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%16.67%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%22.22%11.11%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.94 +0.06
SD 1.57 1.83 2.65
CV 0.79 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—11.11%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%44.44%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.67 -1.33
SD 1.14 1.64 2.20
CV 0.85 0.62 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KuPS 1334 26 19.80 +6.20 94.0% 11 13 17 20 22 27 30
HPS Helsinki 1288 26 22.27 +3.73 88.0% 14 15 20 23 25 27 29
HJK 1238 20 21.09 -1.09 42.0% 12 15 18 21 24 26 29
TPS Turku 1237 20 20.50 -0.50 48.0% 9 13 18 21 24 27 29
Haka 1204 16 18.42 -2.42 32.0% 9 11 16 19 21 24 26
VIFK 1202 17 15.25 +1.75 72.0% 6 9 12 16 18 22 23
Helsingfors 1169 21 15.21 +5.79 95.0% 6 8 13 15 18 21 25
Ilves-Kissat 1093 16 18.36 -2.36 31.0% 6 12 16 18 21 25 26
KTP 985 8 14.73 -6.73 3.0% 7 9 12 15 17 21 26
VPS 981 10 14.37 -4.37 16.0% 5 8 12 14 17 21 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.00%
Strong Edge
53.33%13.33%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
070.44500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.62 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
KuPS, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.02 * Some Luck: 3.02 to 4.53 * Lucky: 4.53 to 6.03 * Wild Swing: 6.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.6 * Close: 1.6 to 2.39 * Off: 2.39 to 3.19 * Way Off: 3.19 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.08 points
Some Luck
03.779
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.994
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Helsingfors
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
KTP
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Top-Heavy
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 117.20
1.50
Moderate Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Clear Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Few
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Slight Separation
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.02
Weak Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

KuPS 1
HPS Helsinki 0
Haka 4
Ilves-Kissat 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KuPS13.00%13.00%15.00%21.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%3.00%
HPS Helsinki34.00%23.00%12.00%12.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%—
Helsingfors1.00%1.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%18.00%15.00%18.00%16.00%
TPS Turku23.00%19.00%12.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%2.00%
HJK16.00%20.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%—
VIFK1.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%10.00%17.00%7.00%16.00%12.00%23.00%
Haka4.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%19.00%7.00%15.00%8.00%8.00%3.00%
Ilves-Kissat5.00%8.00%14.00%7.00%14.00%14.00%16.00%10.00%7.00%5.00%
VPS1.00%1.00%—4.00%7.00%13.00%7.00%18.00%23.00%26.00%
KTP2.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%15.00%17.00%23.00%22.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
HJK 87.00% 12.00% 1.00%
HPS Helsinki 93.00% 5.00% 2.00%
KuPS 84.00% 11.00% 5.00%
TPS Turku 84.00% 10.00% 6.00%
Haka 66.00% 23.00% 11.00%
Ilves-Kissat 62.00% 26.00% 12.00%
Helsingfors 33.00% 33.00% 34.00%
VIFK 42.00% 23.00% 35.00%
KTP 23.00% 32.00% 45.00%
VPS 26.00% 25.00% 49.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1958-05-04 Helsingfors L 0-149.5 1223 1071 72.62% 13.64% 13.73%+1.29 -24.9 0
1958-05-04 @ Haka W 1-049.5 1071 1223 13.73% 13.64% 72.62%-1.29 +24.9 2
1958-05-04 VIFK W 1-034.1 1227 1163 65.29% 13.76% 20.95%+0.78 +8.0 2
1958-05-04 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-134.1 1163 1227 20.95% 13.76% 65.29%-0.78 -8.0 0
1958-05-04 HJK L 0-240.9 1165 1185 56.02% 13.82% 30.15%+0.30 -36.2 0
1958-05-04 @ KTP W 2-040.9 1185 1165 30.15% 13.82% 56.02%-0.30 +36.2 2
1958-05-04 KuPS W 4-133.2 1184 1150 62.23% 13.79% 23.98%+0.61 +20.8 2
1958-05-04 @ TPS Turku L 1-433.2 1150 1184 23.98% 13.79% 62.23%-0.61 -20.8 0
1958-05-04 Ilves-Kissat W 3-032.4 1144 1221 48.56% 13.83% 37.61%-0.03 +36.8 2
1958-05-04 @ VPS L 0-332.4 1221 1144 37.61% 13.83% 48.56%+0.03 -36.8 0
1958-05-09 TPS Turku W 5-237.8 1221 1204 60.25% 13.80% 25.95%+0.50 +19.3 4
1958-05-09 @ HJK L 2-537.8 1204 1221 25.95% 13.80% 60.25%-0.50 -19.3 2
1958-05-11 KTP L 0-337.3 1096 1129 54.31% 13.83% 31.86%+0.22 -51.0 2
1958-05-11 @ Helsingfors W 3-037.3 1129 1096 31.86% 13.83% 54.31%-0.22 +51.0 2
1958-05-11 HPS Helsinki D 0-052.6 1184 1235 51.99% 13.83% 34.18%+0.11 -1.6 1
1958-05-11 @ Ilves-Kissat D 0-052.6 1235 1184 34.18% 13.83% 51.99%-0.11 +1.6 3
1958-05-11 VPS W 6-133.8 1129 1181 51.78% 13.83% 34.39%+0.10 +45.4 2
1958-05-11 @ KuPS L 1-633.8 1181 1129 34.39% 13.83% 51.78%-0.10 -45.4 2
1958-05-11 Haka W 2-141.7 1155 1198 53.06% 13.83% 33.11%+0.16 +11.3 2
1958-05-11 @ VIFK L 1-241.7 1198 1155 33.11% 13.83% 53.06%-0.16 -11.3 0
1958-05-15 KTP W 3-137.0 1186 1180 59.14% 13.81% 27.05%+0.45 +16.4 2
1958-05-15 @ Haka L 1-337.0 1180 1186 27.05% 13.81% 59.14%-0.45 -16.4 2
1958-05-15 Ilves-Kissat W 2-138.3 1240 1182 64.66% 13.77% 21.58%+0.74 +7.7 6
1958-05-15 @ HJK L 1-238.3 1182 1240 21.58% 13.77% 64.66%-0.74 -7.7 1
1958-05-15 Helsingfors L 0-245.3 1174 1045 70.97% 13.68% 15.35%+1.16 -45.8 2
1958-05-15 @ KuPS W 2-045.3 1045 1174 15.35% 13.68% 70.97%-1.16 +45.8 4
1958-05-15 VIFK W 5-237.6 1185 1166 60.54% 13.80% 25.66%+0.52 +19.1 4
1958-05-15 @ TPS Turku L 2-537.6 1166 1185 25.66% 13.80% 60.54%-0.52 -19.1 2
1958-05-15 HPS Helsinki L 1-342.4 1136 1237 45.16% 13.83% 41.01%-0.18 -25.7 2
1958-05-15 @ VPS W 3-142.4 1237 1136 41.01% 13.83% 45.16%+0.18 +25.7 5
1958-05-18 VPS L 0-144.5 1091 1110 56.01% 13.82% 30.17%+0.30 -19.2 4
1958-05-18 @ Helsingfors W 1-044.5 1110 1091 30.17% 13.82% 56.01%-0.30 +19.2 4
1958-05-18 KuPS L 0-146.8 1175 1128 63.52% 13.78% 22.71%+0.68 -21.7 1
1958-05-18 @ Ilves-Kissat W 1-046.8 1128 1175 22.71% 13.78% 63.52%-0.68 +21.7 4
1958-05-18 TPS Turku L 1-344.9 1164 1204 53.33% 13.83% 32.84%+0.17 -29.9 2
1958-05-18 @ KTP W 3-144.9 1204 1164 32.84% 13.83% 53.33%-0.17 +29.9 6
1958-05-20 Haka W 3-243.4 1262 1203 64.83% 13.76% 21.40%+0.75 +7.2 7
1958-05-20 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-343.4 1203 1262 21.40% 13.76% 64.83%-0.75 -7.2 2
1958-05-25 TPS Turku W 2-034.0 1196 1234 53.61% 13.83% 32.56%+0.19 +22.3 4
1958-05-25 @ Haka L 0-234.0 1234 1196 32.56% 13.83% 53.61%-0.19 -22.3 6
1958-05-25 VIFK W 4-134.1 1153 1147 59.05% 13.81% 27.14%+0.44 +23.2 3
1958-05-25 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-434.1 1147 1153 27.14% 13.81% 59.05%-0.44 -23.2 2
1958-05-25 HJK W 2-036.4 1150 1248 45.57% 13.83% 40.60%-0.16 +27.1 6
1958-05-25 @ KuPS L 0-236.4 1248 1150 40.60% 13.83% 45.57%+0.16 -27.1 6
1958-05-25 KTP D 1-155.5 1129 1134 57.87% 13.81% 28.32%+0.38 -2.4 5
1958-05-25 @ VPS D 1-155.5 1134 1129 28.32% 13.81% 57.87%-0.38 +2.4 3
1958-05-27 Helsingfors L 2-359.3 1270 1071 75.58% 13.56% 10.86%+1.56 -23.2 7
1958-05-27 @ HPS Helsinki W 3-259.3 1071 1270 10.86% 13.56% 75.58%-1.56 +23.2 6
1958-05-30 HJK L 0-333.5 1095 1221 41.54% 13.82% 44.63%-0.32 -40.1 6
1958-05-30 @ Helsingfors W 3-033.5 1221 1095 44.63% 13.82% 41.54%+0.32 +40.1 8
1958-06-01 VPS W 4-025.1 1218 1127 67.80% 13.73% 18.47%+0.94 +25.3 6
1958-06-01 @ Haka L 0-425.1 1127 1218 18.47% 13.73% 67.80%-0.94 -25.3 5
1958-06-01 HPS Helsinki L 2-349.9 1136 1246 43.79% 13.83% 42.38%-0.23 -13.7 3
1958-06-01 @ KTP W 3-249.9 1246 1136 42.38% 13.83% 43.79%+0.23 +13.7 9
1958-06-01 Ilves-Kissat L 1-250.5 1212 1176 62.38% 13.79% 23.83%+0.62 -20.1 6
1958-06-01 @ TPS Turku W 2-150.5 1176 1212 23.83% 13.79% 62.38%-0.62 +20.1 5
1958-06-01 KuPS W 1-038.1 1124 1177 51.71% 13.83% 34.46%+0.10 +12.4 4
1958-06-01 @ VIFK L 0-138.1 1177 1124 34.46% 13.83% 51.71%-0.10 -12.4 6
1958-06-05 HPS Helsinki L 1-249.7 1261 1260 58.46% 13.81% 27.73%+0.41 -18.8 8
1958-06-05 @ HJK W 2-149.7 1260 1261 27.73% 13.81% 58.46%-0.41 +18.8 11
1958-06-05 Haka W 3-139.1 1196 1243 52.52% 13.83% 33.65%+0.14 +19.9 7
1958-06-05 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-339.1 1243 1196 33.65% 13.83% 52.52%-0.14 -19.9 6
1958-06-05 KTP W 4-132.9 1165 1122 63.09% 13.78% 23.13%+0.65 +20.1 8
1958-06-05 @ KuPS L 1-432.9 1122 1165 23.13% 13.78% 63.09%-0.65 -20.1 3
1958-06-05 Helsingfors W 2-028.4 1192 1055 71.57% 13.67% 14.76%+1.20 +10.8 8
1958-06-05 @ TPS Turku L 0-228.4 1055 1192 14.76% 13.67% 71.57%-1.20 -10.8 6
1958-06-05 VIFK D 1-155.5 1102 1136 54.09% 13.83% 32.09%+0.21 -1.8 6
1958-06-05 @ VPS D 1-155.5 1136 1102 32.09% 13.83% 54.09%-0.21 +1.8 5
1958-06-08 HJK W 4-135.3 1223 1242 56.13% 13.82% 30.05%+0.30 +25.5 8
1958-06-08 @ Haka L 1-435.3 1242 1223 30.05% 13.82% 56.13%-0.30 -25.5 8
1958-06-08 KuPS W 1-033.4 1279 1185 68.08% 13.73% 18.20%+0.95 +7.0 13
1958-06-08 @ HPS Helsinki L 0-133.4 1185 1279 18.20% 13.73% 68.08%-0.95 -7.0 8
1958-06-08 VIFK W 3-138.4 1102 1138 53.94% 13.83% 32.23%+0.20 +19.2 5
1958-06-08 @ KTP L 1-338.4 1138 1102 32.23% 13.83% 53.94%-0.20 -19.2 5
1958-06-08 TPS Turku L 0-237.5 1100 1203 44.86% 13.83% 41.30%-0.19 -29.5 6
1958-06-08 @ VPS W 2-037.5 1203 1100 41.30% 13.83% 44.86%+0.19 +29.5 10
1958-06-10 Ilves-Kissat W 3-144.1 1044 1216 35.11% 13.80% 51.09%-0.59 +28.7 8
1958-06-10 @ Helsingfors L 1-344.1 1216 1044 51.09% 13.80% 35.11%+0.59 -28.7 7
1958-06-11 HJK L 1-637.2 1119 1216 45.62% 13.83% 40.55%-0.16 -58.0 5
1958-06-11 @ VIFK W 6-137.2 1216 1119 40.55% 13.83% 45.62%+0.16 +58.0 10
1958-06-19 Helsingfors L 2-353.7 1061 1072 57.00% 13.82% 29.18%+0.34 -17.4 5
1958-06-19 @ VIFK W 3-253.7 1072 1061 29.18% 13.82% 57.00%-0.34 +17.4 10
1958-06-29 VPS W 4-129.1 1274 1070 75.93% 13.55% 10.52%+1.59 +9.6 12
1958-06-29 @ HJK L 1-429.1 1070 1274 10.52% 13.55% 75.93%-1.59 -9.6 6
1958-06-29 KTP W 3-242.9 1188 1121 65.49% 13.76% 20.75%+0.79 +7.0 9
1958-06-29 @ Ilves-Kissat L 2-342.9 1121 1188 20.75% 13.76% 65.49%-0.79 -7.1 5
1958-06-29 Haka W 2-035.3 1178 1249 49.28% 13.83% 36.89%+0.00 +24.9 10
1958-06-29 @ KuPS L 0-235.3 1249 1178 36.89% 13.83% 49.28%+0.00 -24.9 8
1958-06-29 HPS Helsinki D 2-260.7 1232 1286 51.62% 13.83% 34.55%+0.10 -1.0 11
1958-06-29 @ TPS Turku D 2-260.7 1286 1232 34.55% 13.83% 51.62%-0.10 +1.0 14
1958-08-01 VPS D 3-365.0 1287 1061 77.11% 13.50% 9.39%+1.72 -3.6 15
1958-08-01 @ HPS Helsinki D 3-365.0 1061 1287 9.39% 13.50% 77.11%-1.72 +3.7 7
1958-08-03 KuPS L 2-349.7 1090 1203 43.43% 13.83% 42.74%-0.25 -13.6 10
1958-08-03 @ Helsingfors W 3-249.7 1203 1090 42.74% 13.83% 43.43%+0.25 +13.6 12
1958-08-03 HJK W 4-245.6 1195 1284 46.72% 13.83% 39.44%-0.11 +20.5 11
1958-08-03 @ Ilves-Kissat L 2-445.6 1284 1195 39.44% 13.83% 46.72%+0.11 -20.5 12
1958-08-03 Haka W 1-040.5 1114 1224 43.89% 13.83% 42.28%-0.23 +14.9 7
1958-08-03 @ KTP L 0-140.5 1224 1114 42.28% 13.83% 43.89%+0.23 -14.9 8
1958-08-03 TPS Turku L 2-346.6 1044 1231 33.13% 13.79% 53.08%-0.68 -10.8 5
1958-08-03 @ VIFK W 3-246.6 1231 1044 53.08% 13.79% 33.13%+0.68 +10.8 13
1958-08-10 HPS Helsinki D 2-260.6 1209 1283 48.85% 13.83% 37.31%-0.02 -0.7 9
1958-08-10 @ Haka D 2-260.6 1283 1209 37.31% 13.83% 48.85%+0.02 +0.7 16
1958-08-10 VIFK D 2-260.3 1264 1033 77.35% 13.49% 9.16%+1.75 -4.4 13
1958-08-10 @ HJK D 2-260.3 1033 1264 9.16% 13.49% 77.35%-1.75 +4.4 6
1958-08-10 Ilves-Kissat W 2-140.2 1216 1215 58.52% 13.81% 27.66%+0.42 +9.7 14
1958-08-10 @ KuPS L 1-240.2 1215 1216 27.66% 13.81% 58.52%-0.42 -9.7 11
1958-08-10 KTP W 8-229.7 1242 1129 69.65% 13.70% 16.65%+1.06 +23.0 15
1958-08-10 @ TPS Turku L 2-829.7 1129 1242 16.65% 13.70% 69.65%-1.06 -23.0 7
1958-08-10 Helsingfors L 1-248.7 1064 1076 56.95% 13.82% 29.24%+0.34 -18.4 7
1958-08-10 @ VPS W 2-148.7 1076 1064 29.24% 13.82% 56.95%-0.34 +18.4 12
1958-08-28 Ilves-Kissat W 2-032.5 1208 1205 58.73% 13.81% 27.47%+0.43 +19.2 11
1958-08-28 @ Haka L 0-232.5 1205 1208 27.47% 13.81% 58.73%-0.43 -19.2 11
1958-08-28 HJK W 3-244.7 1284 1259 61.20% 13.79% 25.01%+0.55 +8.4 18
1958-08-28 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-344.7 1259 1284 25.01% 13.79% 61.20%-0.55 -8.4 13
1958-08-28 VPS W 4-028.1 1037 1046 57.33% 13.82% 28.86%+0.36 +38.0 8
1958-08-28 @ VIFK L 0-428.1 1046 1037 28.86% 13.82% 57.33%-0.36 -38.0 7
1958-08-31 TPS Turku W 4-248.7 1095 1265 35.42% 13.80% 50.78%-0.58 +25.5 14
1958-08-31 @ Helsingfors L 2-448.7 1265 1095 50.78% 13.80% 35.42%+0.58 -25.5 15
1958-08-31 KuPS L 0-236.8 1106 1226 42.44% 13.83% 43.74%-0.29 -28.1 7
1958-08-31 @ KTP W 2-036.8 1226 1106 43.74% 13.83% 42.44%+0.29 +28.1 16
1958-09-07 KTP W 4-129.0 1292 1078 76.48% 13.52% 9.99%+1.65 +9.1 20
1958-09-07 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-429.0 1078 1292 9.99% 13.52% 76.48%-1.65 -9.1 7
1958-09-07 TPS Turku L 1-539.9 1186 1239 51.71% 13.83% 34.46%+0.10 -53.0 11
1958-09-07 @ Ilves-Kissat W 5-139.9 1239 1186 34.46% 13.83% 51.71%-0.10 +53.0 17
1958-09-07 VIFK W 3-240.3 1254 1075 74.42% 13.59% 11.98%+1.45 +4.2 18
1958-09-07 @ KuPS L 2-340.3 1075 1254 11.98% 13.59% 74.42%-1.45 -4.2 8
1958-09-07 Haka W 4-250.5 1008 1228 29.12% 13.76% 57.12%-0.87 +28.5 9
1958-09-07 @ VPS L 2-450.5 1228 1008 57.12% 13.76% 29.12%+0.87 -28.5 11
1958-09-09 Helsingfors L 1-350.1 1251 1120 71.07% 13.68% 15.25%+1.17 -39.7 13
1958-09-09 @ HJK W 3-150.1 1120 1251 15.25% 13.68% 71.07%-1.17 +39.7 16
1958-09-18 HPS Helsinki L 0-236.1 1160 1301 39.36% 13.82% 46.82%-0.41 -26.4 16
1958-09-18 @ Helsingfors W 2-036.1 1301 1160 46.82% 13.82% 39.36%+0.41 +26.4 22
1958-09-21 KuPS L 1-442.0 1211 1258 52.48% 13.83% 33.69%+0.14 -41.7 13
1958-09-21 @ HJK W 4-142.0 1258 1211 33.69% 13.83% 52.48%-0.14 +41.7 20
1958-09-21 VPS D 2-260.2 1069 1037 62.05% 13.79% 24.16%+0.60 -2.3 8
1958-09-21 @ KTP D 2-260.2 1037 1069 24.16% 13.79% 62.05%-0.60 +2.3 10
1958-09-21 Haka D 3-365.2 1292 1199 68.01% 13.73% 18.27%+0.95 -2.6 18
1958-09-21 @ TPS Turku D 3-365.2 1199 1292 18.27% 13.73% 68.01%-0.95 +2.6 12
1958-09-21 Ilves-Kissat W 6-031.0 1071 1133 50.51% 13.83% 35.66%+0.05 +67.2 10
1958-09-21 @ VIFK L 0-631.0 1133 1071 35.66% 13.83% 50.51%-0.05 -67.2 11
1958-09-28 VIFK D 0-052.5 1202 1138 65.22% 13.76% 21.02%+0.78 -4.1 13
1958-09-28 @ Haka D 0-052.5 1138 1202 21.02% 13.76% 65.22%-0.78 +4.1 11
1958-09-28 Ilves-Kissat W 4-128.3 1328 1066 78.80% 13.42% 7.78%+1.93 +7.2 24
1958-09-28 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-428.3 1066 1328 7.78% 13.42% 78.80%-1.93 -7.2 11
1958-09-28 Helsingfors L 2-544.8 1067 1134 49.84% 13.83% 36.32%+0.02 -34.4 8
1958-09-28 @ KTP W 5-244.8 1134 1067 36.32% 13.83% 49.84%-0.02 +34.4 18
1958-09-28 HJK L 0-245.4 1290 1169 70.27% 13.69% 16.04%+1.11 -45.3 18
1958-09-28 @ TPS Turku W 2-045.4 1169 1290 16.04% 13.69% 70.27%-1.11 +45.3 15
1958-09-28 KuPS L 2-344.0 1039 1300 24.38% 13.71% 61.91%-1.11 -8.1 10
1958-09-28 @ VPS W 3-244.0 1300 1039 61.91% 13.71% 24.38%+1.11 +8.1 22
1958-10-04 Haka W 3-030.5 1168 1197 54.77% 13.82% 31.40%+0.24 +31.4 20
1958-10-04 @ Helsingfors L 0-330.5 1197 1168 31.40% 13.82% 54.77%-0.24 -31.4 13
1958-10-05 KTP W 6-230.5 1215 1032 74.66% 13.59% 11.76%+1.47 +11.7 17
1958-10-05 @ HJK L 2-630.5 1032 1215 11.76% 13.59% 74.66%-1.47 -11.7 8
1958-10-05 VPS W 5-131.5 1059 1031 61.57% 13.79% 24.64%+0.57 +27.5 13
1958-10-05 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-531.5 1031 1059 24.64% 13.79% 61.57%-0.57 -27.5 10
1958-10-05 TPS Turku W 3-243.5 1308 1244 65.26% 13.76% 20.98%+0.78 +7.1 24
1958-10-05 @ KuPS L 2-343.5 1244 1308 20.98% 13.76% 65.26%-0.78 -7.1 18
1958-10-05 HPS Helsinki W 1-044.1 1142 1335 32.49% 13.78% 53.73%-0.71 +18.4 13
1958-10-05 @ VIFK L 0-144.1 1335 1142 53.73% 13.78% 32.49%+0.71 -18.4 24
1958-10-18 TPS Turku W 2-138.1 1316 1237 66.73% 13.74% 19.53%+0.87 +7.0 26
1958-10-18 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-238.1 1237 1316 19.53% 13.74% 66.73%-0.87 -7.0 18
1958-10-19 KuPS W 1-042.4 1166 1315 38.28% 13.81% 47.91%-0.46 +16.6 15
1958-10-19 @ Haka L 0-142.4 1315 1166 47.91% 13.81% 38.28%+0.46 -16.6 24
1958-10-19 VIFK L 2-452.3 1199 1161 62.70% 13.78% 23.52%+0.63 -31.3 20
1958-10-19 @ Helsingfors W 4-252.3 1161 1199 23.52% 13.78% 62.70%-0.63 +31.3 15
1958-10-19 Ilves-Kissat L 2-448.4 1021 1086 50.01% 13.83% 36.16%+0.03 -25.2 8
1958-10-19 @ KTP W 4-248.4 1086 1021 36.16% 13.83% 50.01%-0.03 +25.2 15
1958-10-19 HJK L 2-442.0 1003 1226 28.67% 13.75% 57.57%-0.89 -15.4 10
1958-10-19 @ VPS W 4-242.0 1226 1003 57.57% 13.75% 28.67%+0.89 +15.4 19
1958-10-26 Haka D 1-155.7 1242 1183 64.82% 13.76% 21.42%+0.75 -3.6 20
1958-10-26 @ HJK D 1-155.7 1183 1242 21.42% 13.76% 64.82%-0.75 +3.6 16
1958-10-26 Helsingfors D 3-364.9 1111 1168 51.23% 13.83% 34.94%+0.08 -0.8 16
1958-10-26 @ Ilves-Kissat D 3-364.9 1168 1111 34.94% 13.83% 51.23%-0.08 +0.8 21
1958-10-26 HPS Helsinki W 4-136.2 1299 1323 55.35% 13.82% 30.83%+0.26 +26.1 26
1958-10-26 @ KuPS L 1-436.2 1323 1299 30.83% 13.82% 55.35%-0.26 -26.0 26
1958-10-26 VPS W 2-026.5 1230 988 77.92% 13.46% 8.62%+1.82 +6.5 20
1958-10-26 @ TPS Turku L 0-226.5 988 1230 8.62% 13.46% 77.92%-1.82 -6.5 10
1958-10-26 KTP W 4-129.1 1192 995 75.51% 13.56% 10.93%+1.55 +10.0 17
1958-10-26 @ VIFK L 1-429.1 995 1192 10.93% 13.56% 75.51%-1.55 -9.9 8

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1958-11-01 HPS Helsinki W 1-036.2 1325 1297 61.48% 13.79% 24.73%+0.57 +9.2 1-0
1958-11-01 @ KuPS L 0-136.2 1297 1325 24.73% 13.79% 61.48%-0.57 -9.2 0-1
1958-11-02 Ilves-Kissat W 4-131.9 1186 1111 66.40% 13.75% 19.86%+0.85 +17.5 1-0
1958-11-02 @ Haka L 1-431.9 1111 1186 19.86% 13.75% 66.40%-0.85 -17.5 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1958-05-27 10.86% Helsingfors 1071 3 @ HPS Helsinki 1270 2
2 1958-05-04 13.73% Helsingfors 1071 1 @ Haka 1223 0
3 1958-09-09 15.25% Helsingfors 1120 3 @ HJK 1251 1
4 1958-05-15 15.35% Helsingfors 1045 2 @ KuPS 1174 0
5 1958-09-28 16.04% HJK 1169 2 @ TPS Turku 1290 0
6 1958-05-18 22.71% KuPS 1128 1 @ Ilves-Kissat 1175 0
7 1958-10-19 23.52% VIFK 1161 4 @ Helsingfors 1199 2
8 1958-06-01 23.83% Ilves-Kissat 1176 2 @ TPS Turku 1212 1
9 1958-06-05 27.73% HPS Helsinki 1260 2 @ HJK 1261 1
10 1958-09-07 29.12% @ VPS 1008 4 Haka 1228 2
11 1958-06-19 29.18% Helsingfors 1072 3 @ VIFK 1061 2
12 1958-08-10 29.24% Helsingfors 1076 2 @ VPS 1064 1
13 1958-05-04 30.15% HJK 1185 2 @ KTP 1165 0
14 1958-05-18 30.17% VPS 1110 1 @ Helsingfors 1091 0
15 1958-05-11 31.86% KTP 1129 3 @ Helsingfors 1096 0
16 1958-10-05 32.49% @ VIFK 1142 1 HPS Helsinki 1335 0
17 1958-05-18 32.84% TPS Turku 1204 3 @ KTP 1164 1
18 1958-09-21 33.69% KuPS 1258 4 @ HJK 1211 1
19 1958-09-07 34.46% TPS Turku 1239 5 @ Ilves-Kissat 1186 1
20 1958-06-10 35.11% @ Helsingfors 1044 3 Ilves-Kissat 1216 1
21 1958-08-31 35.42% @ Helsingfors 1095 4 TPS Turku 1265 2
22 1958-10-19 36.16% Ilves-Kissat 1086 4 @ KTP 1021 2
23 1958-09-28 36.32% Helsingfors 1134 5 @ KTP 1067 2
24 1958-10-19 38.28% @ Haka 1166 1 KuPS 1315 0
25 1958-06-11 40.55% HJK 1216 6 @ VIFK 1119 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-09-21 67.18 @ VIFK 6 1071 50.51% Ilves-Kissat 0 1133 35.66% 13.83%
2 1958-06-11 58.03 HJK 6 1216 40.55% @ VIFK 1 1119 45.62% 13.83%
3 1958-09-07 53.05 TPS Turku 5 1239 34.46% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1186 51.71% 13.83%
4 1958-05-11 51.01 KTP 3 1129 31.86% @ Helsingfors 0 1096 54.31% 13.83%
5 1958-05-15 45.80 Helsingfors 2 1045 15.35% @ KuPS 0 1174 70.97% 13.68%
6 1958-05-11 45.37 @ KuPS 6 1129 51.78% VPS 1 1181 34.39% 13.83%
7 1958-09-28 45.33 HJK 2 1169 16.04% @ TPS Turku 0 1290 70.27% 13.69%
8 1958-09-21 41.66 KuPS 4 1258 33.69% @ HJK 1 1211 52.48% 13.83%
9 1958-05-30 40.12 HJK 3 1221 44.63% @ Helsingfors 0 1095 41.54% 13.82%
10 1958-09-09 39.73 Helsingfors 3 1120 15.25% @ HJK 1 1251 71.07% 13.68%
11 1958-08-28 38.04 @ VIFK 4 1037 57.33% VPS 0 1046 28.86% 13.82%
12 1958-05-04 36.80 @ VPS 3 1144 48.56% Ilves-Kissat 0 1221 37.61% 13.83%
13 1958-05-04 36.17 HJK 2 1185 30.15% @ KTP 0 1165 56.02% 13.82%
14 1958-09-28 34.41 Helsingfors 5 1134 36.32% @ KTP 2 1067 49.84% 13.83%
15 1958-10-04 31.40 @ Helsingfors 3 1168 54.77% Haka 0 1197 31.40% 13.82%
16 1958-10-19 31.26 VIFK 4 1161 23.52% @ Helsingfors 2 1199 62.70% 13.78%
17 1958-05-18 29.90 TPS Turku 3 1204 32.84% @ KTP 1 1164 53.33% 13.83%
18 1958-06-08 29.53 TPS Turku 2 1203 41.30% @ VPS 0 1100 44.86% 13.83%
19 1958-06-10 28.73 @ Helsingfors 3 1044 35.11% Ilves-Kissat 1 1216 51.09% 13.80%
20 1958-09-07 28.53 @ VPS 4 1008 29.12% Haka 2 1228 57.12% 13.76%
21 1958-08-31 28.14 KuPS 2 1226 43.74% @ KTP 0 1106 42.44% 13.83%
22 1958-10-05 27.49 @ Ilves-Kissat 5 1059 61.57% VPS 1 1031 24.64% 13.79%
23 1958-05-25 27.08 @ KuPS 2 1150 45.57% HJK 0 1248 40.60% 13.83%
24 1958-09-18 26.36 HPS Helsinki 2 1301 46.82% @ Helsingfors 0 1160 39.36% 13.82%
25 1958-10-26 26.05 @ KuPS 4 1299 55.35% HPS Helsinki 1 1323 30.83% 13.82%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-09-21 65.2 @ TPS Turku 3 1292 68.01% Haka 3 1199 18.27% 13.73%
2 1958-08-01 65.0 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1287 77.11% VPS 3 1061 9.39% 13.50%
3 1958-10-26 64.9 @ Ilves-Kissat 3 1111 51.23% Helsingfors 3 1168 34.94% 13.83%
4 1958-06-29 60.7 @ TPS Turku 2 1232 51.62% HPS Helsinki 2 1286 34.55% 13.83%
5 1958-08-10 60.6 @ Haka 2 1209 48.85% HPS Helsinki 2 1283 37.31% 13.83%
6 1958-08-10 60.3 @ HJK 2 1264 77.35% VIFK 2 1033 9.16% 13.49%
7 1958-09-21 60.2 @ KTP 2 1069 62.05% VPS 2 1037 24.16% 13.79%
8 1958-05-27 59.3 Helsingfors 3 1071 10.86% @ HPS Helsinki 2 1270 75.58% 13.56%
9 1958-10-26 55.7 @ HJK 1 1242 64.82% Haka 1 1183 21.42% 13.76%
10 1958-05-25 55.5 @ VPS 1 1129 57.87% KTP 1 1134 28.32% 13.81%
11 1958-06-05 55.5 @ VPS 1 1102 54.09% VIFK 1 1136 32.09% 13.83%
12 1958-06-19 53.7 Helsingfors 3 1072 29.18% @ VIFK 2 1061 57.00% 13.82%
13 1958-05-11 52.6 @ Ilves-Kissat 0 1184 51.99% HPS Helsinki 0 1235 34.18% 13.83%
14 1958-09-28 52.5 @ Haka 0 1202 65.22% VIFK 0 1138 21.02% 13.76%
15 1958-10-19 52.3 VIFK 4 1161 23.52% @ Helsingfors 2 1199 62.70% 13.78%
16 1958-06-01 50.5 Ilves-Kissat 2 1176 23.83% @ TPS Turku 1 1212 62.38% 13.79%
17 1958-09-07 50.5 @ VPS 4 1008 29.12% Haka 2 1228 57.12% 13.76%
18 1958-09-09 50.1 Helsingfors 3 1120 15.25% @ HJK 1 1251 71.07% 13.68%
19 1958-06-01 49.9 HPS Helsinki 3 1246 42.38% @ KTP 2 1136 43.79% 13.83%
20 1958-06-05 49.7 HPS Helsinki 2 1260 27.73% @ HJK 1 1261 58.46% 13.81%
21 1958-08-03 49.7 KuPS 3 1203 42.74% @ Helsingfors 2 1090 43.43% 13.83%
22 1958-05-04 49.5 Helsingfors 1 1071 13.73% @ Haka 0 1223 72.62% 13.64%
23 1958-08-10 48.7 Helsingfors 2 1076 29.24% @ VPS 1 1064 56.95% 13.82%
24 1958-08-31 48.7 @ Helsingfors 4 1095 35.42% TPS Turku 2 1265 50.78% 13.80%
25 1958-10-19 48.4 Ilves-Kissat 4 1086 36.16% @ KTP 2 1021 50.01% 13.83%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-06-01 25.1 @ Haka 4 1218 67.80% VPS 0 1127 18.47% 13.73%
2 1958-10-26 26.5 @ TPS Turku 2 1230 77.92% VPS 0 988 8.62% 13.46%
3 1958-08-28 28.1 @ VIFK 4 1037 57.33% VPS 0 1046 28.86% 13.82%
4 1958-09-28 28.3 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1328 78.80% Ilves-Kissat 1 1066 7.78% 13.42%
5 1958-06-05 28.4 @ TPS Turku 2 1192 71.57% Helsingfors 0 1055 14.76% 13.67%
6 1958-09-07 29.0 @ HPS Helsinki 4 1292 76.48% KTP 1 1078 9.99% 13.52%
7 1958-06-29 29.1 @ HJK 4 1274 75.93% VPS 1 1070 10.52% 13.55%
8 1958-10-26 29.1 @ VIFK 4 1192 75.51% KTP 1 995 10.93% 13.56%
9 1958-08-10 29.7 @ TPS Turku 8 1242 69.65% KTP 2 1129 16.65% 13.70%
10 1958-10-04 30.5 @ Helsingfors 3 1168 54.77% Haka 0 1197 31.40% 13.82%
11 1958-10-05 30.5 @ HJK 6 1215 74.66% KTP 2 1032 11.76% 13.59%
12 1958-09-21 31.0 @ VIFK 6 1071 50.51% Ilves-Kissat 0 1133 35.66% 13.83%
13 1958-10-05 31.5 @ Ilves-Kissat 5 1059 61.57% VPS 1 1031 24.64% 13.79%
14 1958-11-02 * 31.9 @ Haka 4 1186 66.40% Ilves-Kissat 1 1111 19.86% 13.75%
15 1958-05-04 32.4 @ VPS 3 1144 48.56% Ilves-Kissat 0 1221 37.61% 13.83%
16 1958-08-28 32.5 @ Haka 2 1208 58.73% Ilves-Kissat 0 1205 27.47% 13.81%
17 1958-06-05 32.9 @ KuPS 4 1165 63.09% KTP 1 1122 23.13% 13.78%
18 1958-05-04 33.2 @ TPS Turku 4 1184 62.23% KuPS 1 1150 23.98% 13.79%
19 1958-06-08 33.4 @ HPS Helsinki 1 1279 68.08% KuPS 0 1185 18.20% 13.73%
20 1958-05-30 33.5 HJK 3 1221 44.63% @ Helsingfors 0 1095 41.54% 13.82%
21 1958-05-11 33.8 @ KuPS 6 1129 51.78% VPS 1 1181 34.39% 13.83%
22 1958-05-25 34.0 @ Haka 2 1196 53.61% TPS Turku 0 1234 32.56% 13.83%
23 1958-05-04 34.1 @ HPS Helsinki 1 1227 65.29% VIFK 0 1163 20.95% 13.76%
24 1958-05-25 34.1 @ Ilves-Kissat 4 1153 59.05% VIFK 1 1147 27.14% 13.81%
25 1958-06-08 35.3 @ Haka 4 1223 56.13% HJK 1 1242 30.05% 13.82%