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1957 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

HPS Helsinki

26 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 1935

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

HPS Helsinki

8.36 points above expected

26 points · 17.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kotkan Reipas

4.13 points below expected

8 points · 12.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 HPS Helsinki Champion 18 11 4 3 26 49 27 +22 17.64 +8.36
2 Haka 18 11 3 4 25 46 20 +26 22.26 +2.74
3 TPS Turku 18 7 7 4 21 45 37 +8 17.78 +3.22
4 KuPS 18 8 3 7 19 28 34 -6 19.41 -0.41
5 Ilves-Kissat 18 7 4 7 18 50 34 +16 18.96 -0.96
6 HJK 18 5 8 5 18 26 26 0 17.83 +0.17
7 VPS 18 6 4 8 16 21 30 -9 17.16 -1.16
8 KTP 18 5 5 8 15 28 31 -3 18.79 -3.79
9 Kiffen 08 18 5 4 9 14 28 36 -8 18.04 -4.04
10 Kotkan Reipas 18 2 4 12 8 21 67 -46 12.13 -4.13

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 HPS Helsinki 26 17.64 +8.36
2 TPS Turku 21 17.78 +3.22
3 Haka 25 22.26 +2.74
4 HJK 18 17.83 +0.17
5 KuPS 19 19.41 -0.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kotkan Reipas 8 12.13 -4.13
2 Kiffen 08 14 18.04 -4.04
3 KTP 15 18.79 -3.79
4 VPS 16 17.16 -1.16
5 Ilves-Kissat 18 18.96 -0.96

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HPS Helsinki 7 Aug 6 – Oct 6 1 in 255
2 VPS 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 32
3 Ilves-Kissat 4 Aug 18 – Sep 29 1 in 28
4 KTP 3 May 19 – May 26 1 in 27
5 TPS Turku 3 Jun 2 – Jun 23 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Haka 2 Jul 21 – Aug 1 1 in 34
2 Ilves-Kissat 4 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 29
3 Kiffen 08 3 Jul 21 – Aug 6 1 in 22
4 KTP 3 Aug 9 – Aug 25 1 in 21
5 VPS 2 Jun 10 – Jun 23 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HPS Helsinki 14 May 25 – Oct 6 1 in 891
2 HJK 7 Jun 23 – Aug 25 1 in 26
3 TPS Turku 4 May 11 – May 26 1 in 9
4 KTP 5 May 12 – May 30 1 in 8
5 Haka 7 Aug 11 – Oct 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VPS 7 Jun 10 – Aug 18 1 in 34
2 Kotkan Reipas 13 May 12 – Aug 17 1 in 24
3 Ilves-Kissat 7 May 5 – Jun 2 1 in 19
4 KTP 7 Aug 4 – Oct 6 1 in 16
5 Kiffen 08 6 Jun 10 – Aug 6 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
HPS Helsinki 1326 26 +108 10 6.7 +3.3
Haka 1300 25 +28 8 6.4 +1.6
TPS Turku 1205 21 +4 5 5.8 -0.8
KuPS 1124 19 -110 3 4.5 -1.5
Ilves-Kissat 1283 18 +113 9 5.9 +3.1
HJK 1206 18 +3 5 4.6 +0.4
VPS 1110 16 -34 3 4.2 -1.2
KTP 1157 15 -61 1 4.4 -3.4
Kiffen 08 1114 14 -15 2 4.5 -2.5
Kotkan Reipas 940 8 -52 3 2.7 +0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HH HAK ILV KTP K0 KR KUP TT VPS
HJK —
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.24
0-1-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.30
1-1-0
2.51
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
3.02
HPS Helsinki
1-1-0
2.94
 —
1-1-0
1.70
2-0-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
3.45
2-0-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.62
2-0-0
3.01
Haka
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
3.78
 —
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.50
2-0-0
4.02
0-1-1
3.29
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
3.54
Ilves-Kissat
1-1-0
2.86
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
2.05
 —
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
4.06
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
2.24
KTP
0-1-1
3.17
0-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.10
0-1-1
2.83
 —
2-0-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.61
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.88
Kiffen 08
0-1-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.96
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.77
 —
2-0-0
3.49
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.45
Kotkan Reipas
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.46
0-1-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-2
1.98
 —
0-1-1
1.73
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.89
KuPS
0-0-2
2.77
0-0-2
3.04
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
2.81
1-1-0
3.75
 —
2-0-0
2.84
0-0-2
3.25
TPS Turku
1-1-0
2.56
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
2.50
1-1-0
2.49
1-1-0
2.51
1-1-0
2.67
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
2.62
 —
1-1-0
3.08
VPS
1-1-0
2.44
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.58
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
2.21
0-1-1
2.38
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.58 +3.4
Allowed 0.60 -3.2
Differential 0.84 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%3.33%3.89%2.22%2.22%1.67%21.11%
13.33%7.78%7.22%3.89%0.56%2.78%25.56%
23.89%7.22%8.89%3.89%1.67%2.78%28.33%
32.22%3.89%3.89%——1.11%11.11%
42.22%0.56%1.67%—1.11%—5.56%
5+1.67%2.78%2.78%1.11%——8.33%
Total21.11%25.56%28.33%11.11%5.56%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 1.90 +0.00
SD 1.77 1.77 2.62
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%—————22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%—11.11%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.58 1.64
CV 0.80 1.09 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 1.50 +1.22
SD 2.27 1.34 2.49
CV 0.83 0.89 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.11 +1.44
SD 2.15 1.08 2.33
CV 0.84 0.97 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
2—5.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—16.67%————16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.89 +0.89
SD 2.37 1.23 3.08
CV 0.85 0.65 —
Max 10 5 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%44.44%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.72 -0.17
SD 1.20 1.02 1.69
CV 0.77 0.59 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%—11.11%—33.33%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.00 -0.44
SD 1.72 1.91 2.85
CV 1.11 0.95 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—16.67%38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3———————
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%11.11%22.22%11.11%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 3.72 -2.56
SD 1.04 2.89 3.13
CV 0.89 0.78 —
Max 4 10 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
211.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.89 -0.33
SD 0.92 2.00 2.52
CV 0.59 1.06 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
15.56%16.67%————22.22%
2——16.67%——5.56%22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.06 +0.44
SD 2.18 1.39 2.64
CV 0.87 0.68 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%11.11%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.67 -0.50
SD 1.04 1.53 1.47
CV 0.89 0.92 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
HPS Helsinki 1326 26 17.64 +8.36 99.0% 8 12 15 18 20 24 28
Haka 1300 25 22.26 +2.74 88.0% 15 17 20 22 24 28 30
Ilves-Kissat 1283 18 18.96 -0.96 48.0% 9 12 17 19 21 26 27
HJK 1206 18 17.83 +0.17 56.0% 9 12 16 18 20 23 25
TPS Turku 1205 21 17.78 +3.22 86.0% 9 11 16 18 20 23 25
KTP 1157 15 18.79 -3.79 20.0% 11 13 17 19 21 24 28
KuPS 1124 19 19.41 -0.41 52.0% 11 13 17 19 22 25 26
Kiffen 08 1114 14 18.04 -4.04 12.0% 9 13 15 18 20 24 26
VPS 1110 16 17.16 -1.16 43.0% 10 12 15 17 20 22 26
Kotkan Reipas 940 8 12.13 -4.13 8.0% 5 7 10 12 14 17 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
No Edge
41.11%25.56%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
101 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.02 goals
Neutral
-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
HPS Helsinki, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.02 * Lucky: 4.02 to 5.36 * Wild Swing: 5.36 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.78 * Close: 1.78 to 2.67 * Off: 2.67 to 3.55 * Way Off: 3.55 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.71 points
Some Luck
03.358
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.60
Close
02.225
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
HPS Helsinki
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Kotkan Reipas
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 114.43
1.45
Moderate Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Clear Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.10
Weak Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.89
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1800.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
HPS Helsinki7.00%7.00%10.00%7.00%17.00%16.00%6.00%14.00%10.00%6.00%
Haka41.00%27.00%11.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%4.00%2.00%——
TPS Turku5.00%7.00%10.00%17.00%8.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%14.00%5.00%
KuPS12.00%15.00%7.00%18.00%10.00%6.00%16.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%
Ilves-Kissat13.00%12.00%13.00%7.00%14.00%19.00%6.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%
HJK6.00%8.00%12.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%3.00%
VPS2.00%4.00%15.00%6.00%12.00%8.00%14.00%14.00%17.00%8.00%
KTP7.00%8.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%16.00%12.00%7.00%11.00%1.00%
Kiffen 087.00%12.00%7.00%10.00%14.00%7.00%9.00%19.00%11.00%4.00%
Kotkan Reipas————1.00%2.00%6.00%9.00%14.00%68.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Haka 100% — —
KTP 88.00% 11.00% 1.00%
KuPS 92.00% 6.00% 2.00%
HJK 85.00% 12.00% 3.00%
Ilves-Kissat 92.00% 5.00% 3.00%
Kiffen 08 85.00% 11.00% 4.00%
TPS Turku 81.00% 14.00% 5.00%
HPS Helsinki 84.00% 10.00% 6.00%
VPS 75.00% 17.00% 8.00%
Kotkan Reipas 18.00% 14.00% 68.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1957-05-05 VPS L 1-247.9 1189 1178 43.59% 27.05% 29.37%+0.38 -11.7 0
1957-05-05 @ HJK W 2-147.9 1178 1189 29.37% 27.05% 43.59%-0.38 +11.7 2
1957-05-05 Kiffen 08 L 0-241.4 1186 1190 41.50% 27.08% 31.42%+0.22 -22.5 0
1957-05-05 @ Ilves-Kissat W 2-041.4 1190 1186 31.42% 27.08% 41.50%-0.22 +22.5 2
1957-05-05 HPS Helsinki W 2-144.7 1136 1152 39.83% 27.10% 33.07%+0.10 +9.5 2
1957-05-05 @ Kotkan Reipas L 1-244.7 1152 1136 33.07% 27.10% 39.83%-0.10 -9.5 0
1957-05-05 KTP W 3-141.5 1201 1180 44.78% 27.01% 28.21%+0.47 +14.6 2
1957-05-05 @ KuPS L 1-341.5 1180 1201 28.21% 27.01% 44.78%-0.47 -14.6 0
1957-05-05 Haka L 0-537.8 1173 1179 41.25% 27.09% 31.67%+0.20 -52.3 0
1957-05-05 @ TPS Turku W 5-037.8 1179 1173 31.67% 27.09% 41.25%-0.20 +52.3 2
1957-05-11 TPS Turku D 1-150.3 1213 1120 53.22% 26.55% 20.23%+1.18 -2.0 3
1957-05-11 @ Kiffen 08 D 1-150.3 1120 1213 20.23% 26.55% 53.22%-1.18 +2.0 1
1957-05-12 HJK W 5-241.9 1231 1178 48.85% 26.85% 24.30%+0.79 +15.9 4
1957-05-12 @ Haka L 2-541.9 1178 1231 24.30% 26.85% 48.85%-0.79 -15.9 0
1957-05-12 KuPS W 2-147.1 1143 1215 32.04% 27.02% 40.94%-0.45 +11.1 2
1957-05-12 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-247.1 1215 1143 40.94% 27.02% 32.04%+0.45 -11.1 2
1957-05-12 Ilves-Kissat D 2-254.2 1166 1163 42.43% 27.07% 30.50%+0.29 -0.5 1
1957-05-12 @ KTP D 2-254.2 1163 1166 30.50% 27.07% 42.43%-0.29 +0.5 1
1957-05-12 Kotkan Reipas W 1-038.7 1190 1145 47.81% 26.90% 25.29%+0.71 +8.2 4
1957-05-12 @ VPS L 0-138.7 1145 1190 25.29% 26.90% 47.81%-0.71 -8.2 2
1957-05-16 Kiffen 08 L 0-337.3 1154 1211 34.19% 27.07% 38.74%-0.29 -28.2 2
1957-05-16 @ HPS Helsinki W 3-037.3 1211 1154 38.74% 27.07% 34.19%+0.29 +28.2 5
1957-05-19 Kotkan Reipas W 3-035.3 1162 1137 45.35% 27.00% 27.66%+0.51 +24.1 2
1957-05-19 @ HJK L 0-335.3 1137 1162 27.66% 27.00% 45.35%-0.51 -24.1 2
1957-05-19 TPS Turku D 2-254.2 1164 1122 47.42% 26.92% 25.66%+0.68 -1.0 2
1957-05-19 @ Ilves-Kissat D 2-254.2 1122 1164 25.66% 26.92% 47.42%-0.68 +1.0 2
1957-05-19 VPS W 2-145.5 1165 1198 37.56% 27.10% 35.34%-0.06 +10.0 3
1957-05-19 @ KTP L 1-245.5 1198 1165 35.34% 27.10% 37.56%+0.06 -10.0 4
1957-05-19 Haka W 2-146.0 1204 1247 36.13% 27.09% 36.77%-0.16 +10.2 4
1957-05-19 @ KuPS L 1-246.0 1247 1204 36.77% 27.09% 36.13%+0.16 -10.2 4
1957-05-22 Kiffen 08 D 0-047.2 1186 1239 34.70% 27.08% 38.22%-0.26 +0.2 3
1957-05-22 @ HJK D 0-047.2 1239 1186 38.22% 27.08% 34.70%+0.26 -0.2 6
1957-05-22 Haka L 2-544.2 1163 1237 31.83% 27.02% 41.15%-0.46 -19.5 2
1957-05-22 @ Ilves-Kissat W 5-244.2 1237 1163 41.15% 27.02% 31.83%+0.46 +19.5 6
1957-05-22 KTP L 1-342.9 1113 1175 33.41% 27.05% 39.53%-0.35 -16.5 2
1957-05-22 @ Kotkan Reipas W 3-142.9 1175 1113 39.53% 27.05% 33.41%+0.35 +16.5 5
1957-05-22 VPS L 1-248.5 1214 1188 45.53% 26.99% 27.48%+0.53 -12.1 4
1957-05-22 @ KuPS W 2-148.5 1188 1214 27.48% 26.99% 45.53%-0.53 +12.1 6
1957-05-22 HPS Helsinki W 5-348.9 1123 1126 41.76% 27.08% 31.17%+0.24 +13.3 4
1957-05-22 @ TPS Turku L 3-548.9 1126 1123 31.17% 27.08% 41.76%-0.24 -13.3 2
1957-05-25 Haka D 2-254.4 1113 1256 23.39% 26.58% 50.03%-1.15 +1.2 3
1957-05-25 @ HPS Helsinki D 2-254.4 1256 1113 50.03% 26.58% 23.39%+1.15 -1.2 7
1957-05-26 KTP L 0-440.3 1239 1192 48.07% 26.89% 25.04%+0.73 -48.2 6
1957-05-26 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-040.3 1192 1239 25.04% 26.89% 48.07%-0.73 +48.2 7
1957-05-26 KuPS D 1-150.2 1096 1202 27.75% 26.86% 45.39%-0.78 +1.0 3
1957-05-26 @ Kotkan Reipas D 1-150.2 1202 1096 45.39% 26.86% 27.75%+0.78 -1.0 5
1957-05-26 HJK W 4-142.5 1137 1186 35.18% 27.08% 37.74%-0.22 +25.6 6
1957-05-26 @ TPS Turku L 1-442.5 1186 1137 37.74% 27.08% 35.18%+0.22 -25.6 3
1957-05-26 Ilves-Kissat W 3-246.1 1200 1143 49.26% 26.83% 23.91%+0.83 +7.0 8
1957-05-26 @ VPS L 2-346.1 1143 1200 23.91% 26.83% 49.26%-0.83 -7.0 2
1957-05-30 Kotkan Reipas W 4-029.9 1255 1098 59.45% 25.82% 14.73%+1.82 +18.7 9
1957-05-30 @ Haka L 0-429.9 1098 1255 14.73% 25.82% 59.45%-1.82 -18.7 3
1957-05-30 Ilves-Kissat W 3-249.1 1114 1136 39.01% 27.10% 33.89%+0.04 +9.2 5
1957-05-30 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-349.1 1136 1114 33.89% 27.10% 39.01%-0.04 -9.2 2
1957-05-30 HJK D 2-254.4 1240 1161 51.80% 26.67% 21.53%+1.05 -1.4 8
1957-05-30 @ KTP D 2-254.4 1161 1240 21.53% 26.67% 51.80%-1.05 +1.4 4
1957-05-30 TPS Turku W 2-036.7 1201 1162 47.13% 26.93% 25.93%+0.65 +15.8 7
1957-05-30 @ KuPS L 0-236.7 1162 1201 25.93% 26.93% 47.13%-0.65 -15.8 6
1957-06-01 HPS Helsinki D 0-047.1 1162 1123 47.12% 26.93% 25.95%+0.65 -1.4 5
1957-06-01 @ HJK D 0-047.1 1123 1162 25.95% 26.93% 47.12%-0.65 +1.4 6
1957-06-02 VPS L 0-146.5 1274 1207 50.37% 26.76% 22.86%+0.92 -14.0 9
1957-06-02 @ Haka W 1-046.5 1207 1274 22.86% 26.76% 50.37%-0.92 +14.0 10
1957-06-02 KuPS L 1-243.7 1127 1217 29.75% 26.95% 43.30%-0.62 -8.7 2
1957-06-02 @ Ilves-Kissat W 2-143.7 1217 1127 43.30% 26.95% 29.75%+0.62 +8.7 9
1957-06-02 Kiffen 08 L 1-242.8 1079 1191 27.04% 26.82% 46.14%-0.83 -8.1 3
1957-06-02 @ Kotkan Reipas W 2-142.8 1191 1079 46.14% 26.82% 27.04%+0.83 +8.1 8
1957-06-02 KTP W 3-252.1 1146 1239 29.46% 26.94% 43.60%-0.64 +11.1 8
1957-06-02 @ TPS Turku L 2-352.1 1239 1146 43.60% 26.94% 29.46%+0.64 -11.1 8
1957-06-09 Ilves-Kissat L 1-249.0 1161 1118 47.49% 26.92% 25.59%+0.68 -12.6 5
1957-06-09 @ HJK W 2-149.0 1118 1161 25.59% 26.92% 47.49%-0.68 +12.6 4
1957-06-10 KTP W 2-143.1 1260 1228 46.29% 26.97% 26.74%+0.59 +8.1 11
1957-06-10 @ Haka L 1-243.1 1228 1260 26.74% 26.97% 46.29%-0.59 -8.1 8
1957-06-10 KuPS D 2-254.3 1199 1226 38.36% 27.10% 34.53%+0.00 -0.2 9
1957-06-10 @ Kiffen 08 D 2-254.3 1226 1199 34.53% 27.10% 38.36%+0.00 +0.2 10
1957-06-10 TPS Turku L 1-737.2 1071 1157 30.15% 26.96% 42.89%-0.59 -40.5 3
1957-06-10 @ Kotkan Reipas W 7-137.2 1157 1071 42.89% 26.96% 30.15%+0.59 +40.5 10
1957-06-10 HPS Helsinki L 0-147.1 1221 1124 53.70% 26.51% 19.79%+1.22 -14.9 10
1957-06-10 @ VPS W 1-047.1 1124 1221 19.79% 26.51% 53.70%-1.22 +14.9 8
1957-06-23 Kotkan Reipas D 2-254.3 1131 1030 54.09% 26.48% 19.43%+1.26 -1.6 5
1957-06-23 @ Ilves-Kissat D 2-254.3 1030 1131 19.43% 26.48% 54.09%-1.26 +1.6 4
1957-06-23 Haka L 0-238.9 1199 1268 32.44% 27.03% 40.53%-0.42 -18.7 9
1957-06-23 @ Kiffen 08 W 2-038.9 1268 1199 40.53% 27.03% 32.44%+0.42 +18.7 13
1957-06-23 HPS Helsinki D 0-047.3 1219 1139 51.90% 26.66% 21.44%+1.06 -2.1 9
1957-06-23 @ KTP D 0-047.3 1139 1219 21.44% 26.66% 51.90%-1.06 +2.1 9
1957-06-23 HJK L 0-244.3 1226 1148 51.65% 26.68% 21.67%+1.04 -27.0 10
1957-06-23 @ KuPS W 2-044.3 1148 1226 21.67% 26.68% 51.65%-1.04 +27.0 7
1957-06-23 VPS W 1-040.9 1198 1206 40.95% 27.09% 31.97%+0.18 +9.8 12
1957-06-23 @ TPS Turku L 0-140.9 1206 1198 31.97% 27.09% 40.95%-0.18 -9.8 10
1957-06-30 Kiffen 08 D 0-047.2 1197 1180 44.32% 27.03% 28.65%+0.43 -1.0 11
1957-06-30 @ VPS D 0-047.2 1180 1197 28.65% 27.03% 44.32%-0.43 +1.0 10
1957-07-07 KuPS L 0-242.0 1208 1199 43.27% 27.05% 29.68%+0.35 -23.2 12
1957-07-07 @ TPS Turku W 2-042.0 1199 1208 29.68% 27.05% 43.27%-0.35 +23.2 12
1957-07-21 HPS Helsinki L 2-356.3 1287 1141 58.37% 25.98% 15.66%+1.70 -14.4 13
1957-07-21 @ Haka W 3-256.3 1141 1287 15.66% 25.98% 58.37%-1.70 +14.4 11
1957-07-21 TPS Turku D 2-254.2 1175 1185 40.82% 27.09% 32.09%+0.17 -0.4 8
1957-07-21 @ HJK D 2-254.2 1185 1175 32.09% 27.09% 40.82%-0.17 +0.4 13
1957-07-21 VPS W 5-141.8 1129 1196 32.87% 27.04% 40.09%-0.39 +34.6 7
1957-07-21 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-541.8 1196 1129 40.09% 27.04% 32.87%+0.39 -34.6 11
1957-07-21 Kiffen 08 W 3-246.9 1217 1181 46.80% 26.95% 26.25%+0.63 +7.6 11
1957-07-21 @ KTP L 2-346.9 1181 1217 26.25% 26.95% 46.80%-0.63 -7.5 10
1957-07-21 Kotkan Reipas W 3-030.2 1222 1032 62.12% 25.34% 12.54%+2.14 +12.4 14
1957-07-21 @ KuPS L 0-330.2 1032 1222 12.54% 25.34% 62.12%-2.14 -12.4 4
1957-07-31 HJK L 1-345.6 1173 1175 41.91% 27.08% 31.01%+0.25 -19.6 10
1957-07-31 @ Kiffen 08 W 3-145.6 1175 1173 31.01% 27.08% 41.91%-0.25 +19.6 10
1957-08-01 Ilves-Kissat L 0-343.4 1272 1164 54.85% 26.40% 18.75%+1.33 -41.5 13
1957-08-01 @ Haka W 3-043.4 1164 1272 18.75% 26.40% 54.85%-1.33 +41.5 9
1957-08-01 TPS Turku D 1-150.1 1156 1185 38.07% 27.10% 34.82%-0.02 -0.2 12
1957-08-01 @ HPS Helsinki D 1-150.1 1185 1156 34.82% 27.10% 38.07%+0.02 +0.2 14
1957-08-01 Kotkan Reipas W 3-241.8 1225 1019 63.26% 25.10% 11.63%+2.29 +3.8 13
1957-08-01 @ KTP L 2-341.8 1019 1225 11.63% 25.10% 63.26%-2.29 -3.8 4
1957-08-04 HJK D 1-150.3 1016 1194 19.87% 26.23% 53.90%-1.49 +2.1 5
1957-08-04 @ Kotkan Reipas D 1-150.3 1194 1016 53.90% 26.23% 19.87%+1.49 -2.1 11
1957-08-04 Ilves-Kissat W 3-143.1 1185 1205 39.31% 27.10% 33.59%+0.07 +16.6 16
1957-08-04 @ TPS Turku L 1-343.1 1205 1185 33.59% 27.10% 39.31%-0.07 -16.6 9
1957-08-04 KTP D 1-150.2 1161 1229 32.69% 27.04% 40.27%-0.40 +0.4 12
1957-08-04 @ VPS D 1-150.2 1229 1161 40.27% 27.04% 32.69%+0.40 -0.4 14
1957-08-06 HPS Helsinki L 0-438.4 1154 1156 41.86% 27.08% 31.06%+0.25 -42.9 10
1957-08-06 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-038.4 1156 1154 31.06% 27.08% 41.86%-0.25 +42.9 14
1957-08-09 KTP W 1-042.0 1192 1228 37.11% 27.10% 35.79%-0.09 +10.6 13
1957-08-09 @ HJK L 0-142.0 1228 1192 35.79% 27.10% 37.11%+0.09 -10.7 14
1957-08-11 HPS Helsinki L 1-345.3 1189 1198 40.81% 27.09% 32.10%+0.17 -19.2 9
1957-08-11 @ Ilves-Kissat W 3-145.3 1198 1189 32.10% 27.09% 40.81%-0.17 +19.2 16
1957-08-11 VPS W 3-144.3 1111 1162 35.01% 27.08% 37.91%-0.23 +18.1 12
1957-08-11 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-344.3 1162 1111 37.91% 27.08% 35.01%+0.23 -18.1 12
1957-08-11 Haka L 1-732.9 1018 1231 16.87% 25.80% 57.33%-1.83 -25.2 5
1957-08-11 @ Kotkan Reipas W 7-132.9 1231 1018 57.33% 25.80% 16.87%+1.83 +25.2 15
1957-08-17 Kotkan Reipas W 8-232.2 1218 993 64.67% 24.77% 10.56%+2.49 +13.8 18
1957-08-17 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-832.2 993 1218 10.56% 24.77% 64.67%-2.49 -13.8 5
1957-08-18 TPS Turku W 5-242.0 1256 1202 48.95% 26.85% 24.21%+0.80 +15.8 17
1957-08-18 @ Haka L 2-542.0 1202 1256 24.21% 26.85% 48.95%-0.80 -15.8 16
1957-08-18 Ilves-Kissat L 2-447.8 1129 1170 36.43% 27.09% 36.47%-0.13 -15.8 12
1957-08-18 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-247.8 1170 1129 36.47% 27.09% 36.43%+0.13 +15.8 11
1957-08-18 KuPS L 1-246.9 1218 1235 39.78% 27.10% 33.12%+0.10 -10.9 14
1957-08-18 @ KTP W 2-146.9 1235 1218 33.12% 27.10% 39.78%-0.10 +10.9 16
1957-08-18 HJK D 0-047.1 1143 1203 33.80% 27.06% 39.14%-0.32 +0.3 13
1957-08-18 @ VPS D 0-047.1 1203 1143 39.14% 27.06% 33.80%+0.32 -0.3 14
1957-08-21 KuPS W 3-252.4 1144 1245 28.26% 26.89% 44.85%-0.74 +11.3 15
1957-08-21 @ VPS L 2-352.4 1245 1144 44.85% 26.89% 28.26%+0.74 -11.3 16
1957-08-25 Haka D 0-047.4 1203 1272 32.46% 27.03% 40.50%-0.42 +0.5 15
1957-08-25 @ HJK D 0-047.4 1272 1203 40.50% 27.03% 32.46%+0.42 -0.5 18
1957-08-25 KTP W 4-036.0 1185 1207 39.19% 27.10% 33.71%+0.06 +36.5 13
1957-08-25 @ Ilves-Kissat L 0-436.0 1207 1185 33.71% 27.10% 39.19%-0.06 -36.5 14
1957-08-25 VPS W 2-044.7 979 1155 20.10% 26.25% 53.65%-1.47 +27.9 7
1957-08-25 @ Kotkan Reipas L 0-244.7 1155 979 53.65% 26.25% 20.10%+1.47 -27.9 15
1957-08-25 HPS Helsinki L 0-738.9 1234 1231 42.46% 27.07% 30.47%+0.29 -73.6 16
1957-08-25 @ KuPS W 7-038.9 1231 1234 30.47% 27.07% 42.46%-0.29 +73.6 20
1957-08-25 Kiffen 08 W 7-237.4 1186 1113 51.07% 26.72% 22.21%+0.98 +22.6 18
1957-08-25 @ TPS Turku L 2-737.4 1113 1186 22.21% 26.72% 51.07%-0.98 -22.6 12
1957-09-05 KuPS D 0-047.5 1271 1161 55.10% 26.38% 18.53%+1.36 -2.6 19
1957-09-05 @ Haka D 0-047.5 1161 1271 18.53% 26.38% 55.10%-1.36 +2.5 17
1957-09-05 HJK W 4-242.9 1305 1203 54.20% 26.46% 19.33%+1.27 +9.6 22
1957-09-05 @ HPS Helsinki L 2-442.9 1203 1305 19.33% 26.46% 54.20%-1.27 -9.6 15
1957-09-08 Kotkan Reipas W 7-032.0 1091 1007 52.30% 26.63% 21.07%+1.09 +43.0 14
1957-09-08 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-732.0 1007 1091 21.07% 26.63% 52.30%-1.09 -43.0 7
1957-09-08 TPS Turku D 2-254.2 1170 1208 36.80% 27.10% 36.11%-0.11 -0.0 15
1957-09-08 @ KTP D 2-254.2 1208 1170 36.11% 27.10% 36.80%+0.11 +0.0 19
1957-09-08 Ilves-Kissat L 1-639.0 1163 1222 33.89% 27.06% 39.05%-0.31 -37.4 17
1957-09-08 @ KuPS W 6-139.0 1222 1163 39.05% 27.06% 33.89%+0.31 +37.4 15
1957-09-08 Haka L 1-340.0 1127 1269 23.63% 26.60% 49.77%-1.13 -12.7 15
1957-09-08 @ VPS W 3-140.0 1269 1127 49.77% 26.60% 23.63%+1.13 +12.6 21
1957-09-28 KTP W 2-139.5 1315 1170 58.28% 25.99% 15.73%+1.69 +5.2 24
1957-09-28 @ HPS Helsinki L 1-239.5 1170 1315 15.73% 25.99% 58.28%-1.69 -5.2 15
1957-09-29 Kiffen 08 W 2-033.3 1281 1134 58.59% 25.95% 15.46%+1.72 +10.3 23
1957-09-29 @ Haka L 0-233.3 1134 1281 15.46% 25.95% 58.59%-1.72 -10.3 14
1957-09-29 KuPS W 4-243.6 1193 1126 50.50% 26.76% 22.74%+0.93 +11.0 17
1957-09-29 @ HJK L 2-443.6 1126 1193 22.74% 26.76% 50.50%-0.93 -11.0 17
1957-09-29 Ilves-Kissat L 1-1030.5 964 1259 11.28% 24.48% 64.24%-2.65 -25.6 7
1957-09-29 @ Kotkan Reipas W 10-130.5 1259 964 64.24% 24.48% 11.28%+2.65 +25.6 17
1957-09-29 TPS Turku D 1-150.2 1114 1208 29.23% 26.93% 43.84%-0.66 +0.8 16
1957-09-29 @ VPS D 1-150.2 1208 1114 43.84% 26.93% 29.23%+0.66 -0.9 20
1957-10-06 VPS W 5-342.7 1320 1115 63.19% 25.12% 11.69%+2.28 +5.8 26
1957-10-06 @ HPS Helsinki L 3-542.7 1115 1320 11.69% 25.12% 63.19%-2.28 -5.8 16
1957-10-06 HJK D 1-150.6 1285 1204 51.93% 26.66% 21.42%+1.06 -1.9 18
1957-10-06 @ Ilves-Kissat D 1-150.6 1204 1285 21.42% 26.66% 51.93%-1.06 +1.9 18
1957-10-06 Haka L 0-138.9 1165 1292 25.29% 26.72% 47.99%-0.98 -8.2 15
1957-10-06 @ KTP W 1-038.9 1292 1165 47.99% 26.72% 25.29%+0.98 +8.2 25
1957-10-06 Kiffen 08 W 2-144.3 1115 1123 40.95% 27.09% 31.96%+0.18 +9.2 19
1957-10-06 @ KuPS L 1-244.3 1123 1115 31.96% 27.09% 40.95%-0.18 -9.2 14
1957-10-06 Kotkan Reipas D 4-461.7 1208 938 67.58% 23.95% 8.48%+2.92 -2.1 21
1957-10-06 @ TPS Turku D 4-461.7 938 1208 8.48% 23.95% 67.58%-2.92 +2.2 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1957-07-21 15.66% HPS Helsinki 1141 3 @ Haka 1287 2
2 1957-08-01 18.75% Ilves-Kissat 1164 3 @ Haka 1272 0
3 1957-06-10 19.79% HPS Helsinki 1124 1 @ VPS 1221 0
4 1957-08-25 20.10% @ Kotkan Reipas 979 2 VPS 1155 0
5 1957-06-23 21.67% HJK 1148 2 @ KuPS 1226 0
6 1957-06-02 22.86% VPS 1207 1 @ Haka 1274 0
7 1957-05-26 25.04% KTP 1192 4 @ Kiffen 08 1239 0
8 1957-06-09 25.59% Ilves-Kissat 1118 2 @ HJK 1161 1
9 1957-05-22 27.48% VPS 1188 2 @ KuPS 1214 1
10 1957-08-21 28.26% @ VPS 1144 3 KuPS 1245 2
11 1957-05-05 29.37% VPS 1178 2 @ HJK 1189 1
12 1957-06-02 29.46% @ TPS Turku 1146 3 KTP 1239 2
13 1957-07-07 29.68% KuPS 1199 2 @ TPS Turku 1208 0
14 1957-08-25 30.47% HPS Helsinki 1231 7 @ KuPS 1234 0
15 1957-07-31 31.01% HJK 1175 3 @ Kiffen 08 1173 1
16 1957-08-06 31.06% HPS Helsinki 1156 4 @ Kiffen 08 1154 0
17 1957-05-05 31.42% Kiffen 08 1190 2 @ Ilves-Kissat 1186 0
18 1957-05-05 31.67% Haka 1179 5 @ TPS Turku 1173 0
19 1957-05-12 32.04% @ HPS Helsinki 1143 2 KuPS 1215 1
20 1957-08-11 32.10% HPS Helsinki 1198 3 @ Ilves-Kissat 1189 1
21 1957-07-21 32.87% @ Ilves-Kissat 1129 5 VPS 1196 1
22 1957-08-18 33.12% KuPS 1235 2 @ KTP 1218 1
23 1957-08-11 35.01% @ Kiffen 08 1111 3 VPS 1162 1
24 1957-05-26 35.18% @ TPS Turku 1137 4 HJK 1186 1
25 1957-05-19 36.13% @ KuPS 1204 2 Haka 1247 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-08-25 73.57 HPS Helsinki 7 1231 30.47% @ KuPS 0 1234 42.46% 27.07%
2 1957-05-05 52.30 Haka 5 1179 31.67% @ TPS Turku 0 1173 41.25% 27.09%
3 1957-05-26 48.16 KTP 4 1192 25.04% @ Kiffen 08 0 1239 48.07% 26.89%
4 1957-09-08 42.95 @ Kiffen 08 7 1091 52.30% Kotkan Reipas 0 1007 21.07% 26.63%
5 1957-08-06 42.92 HPS Helsinki 4 1156 31.06% @ Kiffen 08 0 1154 41.86% 27.08%
6 1957-08-01 41.52 Ilves-Kissat 3 1164 18.75% @ Haka 0 1272 54.85% 26.40%
7 1957-06-10 40.48 TPS Turku 7 1157 42.89% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1071 30.15% 26.96%
8 1957-09-08 37.36 Ilves-Kissat 6 1222 39.05% @ KuPS 1 1163 33.89% 27.06%
9 1957-08-25 36.47 @ Ilves-Kissat 4 1185 39.19% KTP 0 1207 33.71% 27.10%
10 1957-07-21 34.56 @ Ilves-Kissat 5 1129 32.87% VPS 1 1196 40.09% 27.04%
11 1957-05-16 28.21 Kiffen 08 3 1211 38.74% @ HPS Helsinki 0 1154 34.19% 27.07%
12 1957-08-25 27.93 @ Kotkan Reipas 2 979 20.10% VPS 0 1155 53.65% 26.25%
13 1957-06-23 27.05 HJK 2 1148 21.67% @ KuPS 0 1226 51.65% 26.68%
14 1957-05-26 25.58 @ TPS Turku 4 1137 35.18% HJK 1 1186 37.74% 27.08%
15 1957-09-29 25.58 Ilves-Kissat 10 1259 64.24% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 964 11.28% 24.48%
16 1957-08-11 25.24 Haka 7 1231 57.33% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1018 16.87% 25.80%
17 1957-05-19 24.06 @ HJK 3 1162 45.35% Kotkan Reipas 0 1137 27.66% 27.00%
18 1957-07-07 23.24 KuPS 2 1199 29.68% @ TPS Turku 0 1208 43.27% 27.05%
19 1957-08-25 22.59 @ TPS Turku 7 1186 51.07% Kiffen 08 2 1113 22.21% 26.72%
20 1957-05-05 22.47 Kiffen 08 2 1190 31.42% @ Ilves-Kissat 0 1186 41.50% 27.08%
21 1957-07-31 19.61 HJK 3 1175 31.01% @ Kiffen 08 1 1173 41.91% 27.08%
22 1957-05-22 19.53 Haka 5 1237 41.15% @ Ilves-Kissat 2 1163 31.83% 27.02%
23 1957-08-11 19.21 HPS Helsinki 3 1198 32.10% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1189 40.81% 27.09%
24 1957-05-30 18.70 @ Haka 4 1255 59.45% Kotkan Reipas 0 1098 14.73% 25.82%
25 1957-06-23 18.68 Haka 2 1268 40.53% @ Kiffen 08 0 1199 32.44% 27.03%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-10-06 61.7 @ TPS Turku 4 1208 67.58% Kotkan Reipas 4 938 8.48% 23.95%
2 1957-07-21 56.3 HPS Helsinki 3 1141 15.66% @ Haka 2 1287 58.37% 25.98%
3 1957-05-25 54.4 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1113 23.39% Haka 2 1256 50.03% 26.58%
4 1957-05-30 54.4 @ KTP 2 1240 51.80% HJK 2 1161 21.53% 26.67%
5 1957-06-10 54.3 @ Kiffen 08 2 1199 38.36% KuPS 2 1226 34.53% 27.10%
6 1957-06-23 54.3 @ Ilves-Kissat 2 1131 54.09% Kotkan Reipas 2 1030 19.43% 26.48%
7 1957-05-12 54.2 @ KTP 2 1166 42.43% Ilves-Kissat 2 1163 30.50% 27.07%
8 1957-05-19 54.2 @ Ilves-Kissat 2 1164 47.42% TPS Turku 2 1122 25.66% 26.92%
9 1957-07-21 54.2 @ HJK 2 1175 40.82% TPS Turku 2 1185 32.09% 27.09%
10 1957-09-08 54.2 @ KTP 2 1170 36.80% TPS Turku 2 1208 36.11% 27.10%
11 1957-08-21 52.4 @ VPS 3 1144 28.26% KuPS 2 1245 44.85% 26.89%
12 1957-06-02 52.1 @ TPS Turku 3 1146 29.46% KTP 2 1239 43.60% 26.94%
13 1957-10-06 50.6 @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1285 51.93% HJK 1 1204 21.42% 26.66%
14 1957-05-11 50.3 @ Kiffen 08 1 1213 53.22% TPS Turku 1 1120 20.23% 26.55%
15 1957-08-04 50.3 @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1016 19.87% HJK 1 1194 53.90% 26.23%
16 1957-05-26 50.2 @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1096 27.75% KuPS 1 1202 45.39% 26.86%
17 1957-08-04 50.2 @ VPS 1 1161 32.69% KTP 1 1229 40.27% 27.04%
18 1957-09-29 50.2 @ VPS 1 1114 29.23% TPS Turku 1 1208 43.84% 26.93%
19 1957-08-01 50.1 @ HPS Helsinki 1 1156 38.07% TPS Turku 1 1185 34.82% 27.10%
20 1957-05-30 49.1 @ HPS Helsinki 3 1114 39.01% Ilves-Kissat 2 1136 33.89% 27.10%
21 1957-06-09 49.0 Ilves-Kissat 2 1118 25.59% @ HJK 1 1161 47.49% 26.92%
22 1957-05-22 48.9 @ TPS Turku 5 1123 41.76% HPS Helsinki 3 1126 31.17% 27.08%
23 1957-05-22 48.5 VPS 2 1188 27.48% @ KuPS 1 1214 45.53% 26.99%
24 1957-05-05 47.9 VPS 2 1178 29.37% @ HJK 1 1189 43.59% 27.05%
25 1957-08-18 47.8 Ilves-Kissat 4 1170 36.47% @ Kiffen 08 2 1129 36.43% 27.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-05-30 29.9 @ Haka 4 1255 59.45% Kotkan Reipas 0 1098 14.73% 25.82%
2 1957-07-21 30.2 @ KuPS 3 1222 62.12% Kotkan Reipas 0 1032 12.54% 25.34%
3 1957-09-29 30.5 Ilves-Kissat 10 1259 64.24% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 964 11.28% 24.48%
4 1957-09-08 32.0 @ Kiffen 08 7 1091 52.30% Kotkan Reipas 0 1007 21.07% 26.63%
5 1957-08-17 32.2 @ HPS Helsinki 8 1218 64.67% Kotkan Reipas 2 993 10.56% 24.77%
6 1957-08-11 32.9 Haka 7 1231 57.33% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1018 16.87% 25.80%
7 1957-09-29 33.3 @ Haka 2 1281 58.59% Kiffen 08 0 1134 15.46% 25.95%
8 1957-05-19 35.3 @ HJK 3 1162 45.35% Kotkan Reipas 0 1137 27.66% 27.00%
9 1957-08-25 36.0 @ Ilves-Kissat 4 1185 39.19% KTP 0 1207 33.71% 27.10%
10 1957-05-30 36.7 @ KuPS 2 1201 47.13% TPS Turku 0 1162 25.93% 26.93%
11 1957-06-10 37.2 TPS Turku 7 1157 42.89% @ Kotkan Reipas 1 1071 30.15% 26.96%
12 1957-05-16 37.3 Kiffen 08 3 1211 38.74% @ HPS Helsinki 0 1154 34.19% 27.07%
13 1957-08-25 37.4 @ TPS Turku 7 1186 51.07% Kiffen 08 2 1113 22.21% 26.72%
14 1957-05-05 37.8 Haka 5 1179 31.67% @ TPS Turku 0 1173 41.25% 27.09%
15 1957-08-06 38.4 HPS Helsinki 4 1156 31.06% @ Kiffen 08 0 1154 41.86% 27.08%
16 1957-05-12 38.7 @ VPS 1 1190 47.81% Kotkan Reipas 0 1145 25.29% 26.90%
17 1957-06-23 38.9 Haka 2 1268 40.53% @ Kiffen 08 0 1199 32.44% 27.03%
18 1957-08-25 38.9 HPS Helsinki 7 1231 30.47% @ KuPS 0 1234 42.46% 27.07%
19 1957-10-06 38.9 Haka 1 1292 47.99% @ KTP 0 1165 25.29% 26.72%
20 1957-09-08 39.0 Ilves-Kissat 6 1222 39.05% @ KuPS 1 1163 33.89% 27.06%
21 1957-09-28 39.5 @ HPS Helsinki 2 1315 58.28% KTP 1 1170 15.73% 25.99%
22 1957-09-08 40.0 Haka 3 1269 49.77% @ VPS 1 1127 23.63% 26.60%
23 1957-05-26 40.3 KTP 4 1192 25.04% @ Kiffen 08 0 1239 48.07% 26.89%
24 1957-06-23 40.9 @ TPS Turku 1 1198 40.95% VPS 0 1206 31.97% 27.09%
25 1957-05-05 41.4 Kiffen 08 2 1190 31.42% @ Ilves-Kissat 0 1186 41.50% 27.08%