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2025 Veikkausliiga Season

177 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

KuPS

67 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 2024

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KuPS

15.91 points above expected

67 points · 51.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

VPS

12.79 points below expected

31 points · 43.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Turku 22 13 7 2 46 46 20 +26 41.86 +4.14
2 Ilves 22 14 3 5 45 47 27 +20 42.20 +2.80
3 HJK 22 14 2 6 44 59 29 +30 39.52 +4.48
4 KuPS 22 13 5 4 44 39 23 +16 41.20 +2.80
5 SJK Seinajoki 22 12 5 5 41 45 31 +14 32.07 +8.93
6 Gnistan 22 7 7 8 28 34 39 -5 27.30 +0.70
7 VPS 22 6 7 9 25 32 34 -2 32.00 -7.00
8 Jaro 22 7 4 11 25 25 36 -11 22.47 +2.53
9 Mariehamn 22 5 6 11 21 25 48 -23 20.81 +0.19
10 AC Oulu 22 5 3 14 18 30 48 -18 20.95 -2.95
11 Haka 22 4 4 14 16 27 43 -16 24.61 -8.61
12 KTP 22 3 5 14 14 24 55 -31 20.82 -6.82
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KuPS Champion 32 20 7 5 67 62 34 +28 51.09 +15.91
2 Inter Turku 32 17 10 5 61 60 33 +27 54.22 +6.78
3 Ilves 32 18 6 8 60 68 45 +23 53.05 +6.95
4 SJK Seinajoki 32 17 8 7 59 70 51 +19 47.45 +11.55
5 HJK 32 14 7 11 49 74 52 +22 52.31 -3.31
6 Gnistan 32 8 9 15 33 47 65 -18 31.49 +1.51
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Jaro 27 10 4 13 34 35 44 -9 39.88 -5.88
2 Mariehamn 27 8 8 11 32 34 53 -19 33.69 -1.69
3 VPS 27 8 7 12 31 37 42 -5 43.79 -12.79
4 AC Oulu 27 8 3 16 27 35 53 -18 31.42 -4.42
5 KTP 27 5 6 16 21 31 61 -30 24.16 -3.16
6 Haka 27 4 5 18 17 30 50 -20 29.02 -12.02

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KuPS 67 51.09 +15.91
2 SJK Seinajoki 59 47.45 +11.55
3 Ilves 60 53.05 +6.95
4 Inter Turku 61 54.22 +6.78
5 Gnistan 33 31.49 +1.51

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 VPS 31 43.79 -12.79
2 Haka 17 29.02 -12.02
3 Jaro 34 39.88 -5.88
4 AC Oulu 27 31.42 -4.42
5 HJK 49 52.31 -3.31

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KuPS 7 Apr 12 – May 16 1 in 35
2 SJK Seinajoki 4 Apr 5 – Apr 23 1 in 26
3 AC Oulu 3 Aug 31 – Sep 19 1 in 23
4 Ilves 5 Aug 16 – Sep 23 1 in 20
5 VPS 2 May 2 – May 12 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VPS 4 Jun 28 – Jul 14 1 in 97
2 Haka 6 Jul 26 – Aug 31 1 in 84
3 KTP 7 Aug 3 – Sep 19 1 in 43
4 Ilves 2 Apr 27 – May 2 1 in 42
5 HJK 3 Apr 5 – Apr 22 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Turku 19 Apr 5 – Aug 8 1 in 119
2 KuPS 9 Jun 27 – Aug 31 1 in 20
3 SJK Seinajoki 6 May 31 – Jul 20 1 in 17
4 Mariehamn 5 Sep 13 – Oct 18 1 in 14
5 HJK 9 Apr 26 – Jun 18 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VPS 10 Jun 18 – Aug 15 1 in 286
2 HJK 10 Sep 13 – Nov 9 1 in 236
3 Haka 14 Jul 6 – Oct 18 1 in 188
4 SJK Seinajoki 7 Apr 28 – May 31 1 in 31
5 KuPS 5 May 21 – Jun 18 1 in 21

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KuPS 1587 67 +55 13 9.2 +3.8
Inter Turku 1505 61 +26 8 7.4 +0.6
Ilves 1496 60 -19 7 8.7 -1.7
SJK Seinajoki 1484 59 +19 8 6.9 +1.1
HJK 1413 49 -54 2 6.8 -4.8
Jaro 1236 34 +20 9 7.6 +1.4
Gnistan 1229 33 -23 2 3.0 -1.0
Mariehamn 1226 32 +59 11 6.6 +4.4
VPS 1229 31 -68 6 9.3 -3.3
AC Oulu 1177 27 +2 9 6.7 +2.3
KTP 1138 21 +38 7 4.9 +2.1
Haka 1122 17 -50 1 6.2 -5.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AO GNI HJK HAK ILV IT JAR KTP KUP MAR SS VPS
AC Oulu —
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
1.19
2-0-1
3.83
0-1-1
1.07
0-0-2
1.14
1-0-2
3.78
2-0-1
4.45
0-1-1
1.34
1-0-2
4.18
0-1-1
1.79
2-0-1
2.59
Gnistan
2-0-0
3.51
—
2-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-3
2.52
0-1-3
3.10
0-1-1
3.44
1-1-0
3.50
0-1-3
2.89
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-3
3.62
0-2-0
2.39
HJK
2-0-0
4.38
1-1-2
8.13
—
2-0-0
4.35
1-1-2
4.70
0-3-1
4.91
1-0-1
3.98
2-0-0
4.53
0-1-3
5.55
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-2
6.37
2-0-0
3.17
Haka
1-0-2
4.45
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.22
—
0-0-2
1.44
0-1-1
1.43
0-0-3
4.07
0-1-2
4.80
0-0-2
1.36
0-2-1
4.72
0-1-1
1.68
2-0-1
2.75
Ilves
1-1-0
4.52
3-1-0
8.61
2-1-1
6.35
2-0-0
4.11
—
1-0-3
5.93
2-0-0
4.33
2-0-0
4.34
3-1-0
5.63
1-0-1
4.61
0-2-2
7.34
1-0-1
4.03
Inter Turku
2-0-0
4.44
3-1-0
8.00
1-3-0
6.14
1-1-0
4.13
3-0-1
5.11
—
2-0-0
4.34
1-1-0
4.59
0-1-3
5.42
0-2-0
4.43
2-1-1
6.82
2-0-0
3.56
Jaro
2-0-1
4.51
1-1-0
2.08
1-0-1
1.57
3-0-0
4.22
0-0-2
1.24
0-0-2
1.23
—
1-0-2
4.79
0-0-2
1.37
1-1-1
4.51
0-0-2
1.82
1-2-0
3.04
KTP
1-0-2
3.84
0-1-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.07
2-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
1.24
0-1-1
1.01
2-0-1
3.49
—
0-0-2
1.16
0-2-1
3.92
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-2
2.50
KuPS
1-1-0
4.21
3-1-0
8.22
3-1-0
5.50
2-0-0
4.20
0-1-3
5.42
3-1-0
5.63
2-0-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.41
—
1-0-1
4.21
3-1-0
6.35
0-1-1
3.63
Mariehamn
2-0-1
4.10
0-0-2
2.18
0-0-2
1.17
1-2-0
3.57
1-0-1
0.98
0-2-0
1.14
1-1-1
3.78
1-2-0
4.36
1-0-1
1.34
—
0-0-2
1.72
1-1-1
2.54
SJK Seinajoki
1-1-0
3.74
3-1-0
7.46
2-1-1
4.68
1-1-0
3.87
2-2-0
3.73
1-1-2
4.23
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.50
0-1-3
4.70
2-0-0
3.82
—
1-0-1
3.22
VPS
1-0-2
5.72
0-2-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-2
5.55
1-0-1
1.52
0-0-2
1.98
0-2-1
5.25
2-1-0
5.82
1-1-0
1.90
1-1-1
5.76
1-0-1
2.30
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +9.1
Allowed 0.37 -10.9
Differential 0.91 +7.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.08%5.93%3.95%2.82%1.69%0.56%20.06%
15.93%8.47%7.63%4.24%1.98%0.56%28.81%
23.95%7.63%7.91%6.78%0.85%0.85%27.97%
32.82%4.24%6.78%1.13%0.85%—15.82%
41.69%1.98%0.85%0.85%——5.37%
5+0.56%0.56%0.85%———1.98%
Total20.06%28.81%27.97%15.82%5.37%1.98%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.65 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.84
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 177

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%7.41%—7.41%—29.63%
17.41%—7.41%7.41%3.70%—25.93%
23.70%7.41%7.41%11.11%——29.63%
3—3.70%7.41%—3.70%—14.81%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.81%22.22%29.63%18.52%14.81%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.96 -0.67
SD 1.07 1.29 1.62
CV 0.82 0.65 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%—6.25%6.25%3.12%—25.00%
13.12%6.25%9.38%6.25%——25.00%
26.25%3.12%12.50%6.25%3.12%3.12%34.38%
3——9.38%—3.12%—12.50%
4———————
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total18.75%9.38%40.62%18.75%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 2.03 -0.56
SD 1.19 1.40 1.68
CV 0.81 0.69 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
1—6.25%—6.25%3.12%—15.62%
23.12%3.12%6.25%9.38%——21.88%
33.12%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—18.75%
46.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
5+—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
Total18.75%34.38%18.75%21.88%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 1.62 +0.69
SD 1.80 1.21 2.25
CV 0.78 0.75 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%18.52%3.70%—3.70%—29.63%
1—11.11%14.81%7.41%——33.33%
2—11.11%3.70%18.52%——33.33%
3——3.70%———3.70%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.70%40.74%25.93%25.93%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.85 -0.74
SD 0.89 0.99 1.10
CV 0.80 0.53 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
16.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
23.12%9.38%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
36.25%6.25%12.50%3.12%——28.12%
46.25%—3.12%———9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%25.00%31.25%12.50%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.41 +0.72
SD 1.26 1.21 1.90
CV 0.59 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
19.38%12.50%6.25%———28.12%
29.38%9.38%12.50%3.12%——34.38%
33.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
4—9.38%————9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%40.62%21.88%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.03 +0.84
SD 1.26 0.90 1.59
CV 0.67 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%—3.70%3.70%—22.22%
17.41%7.41%7.41%11.11%——33.33%
23.70%18.52%3.70%11.11%——37.04%
3—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.81%40.74%14.81%25.93%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.63 -0.33
SD 0.91 1.15 1.49
CV 0.70 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%3.70%3.70%11.11%—7.41%33.33%
1—3.70%14.81%3.70%7.41%—29.63%
23.70%3.70%11.11%7.41%——25.93%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%40.74%22.22%7.41%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 2.26 -1.11
SD 1.03 1.32 1.80
CV 0.89 0.58 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%6.25%——15.62%
112.50%15.62%————28.12%
26.25%6.25%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
39.38%9.38%9.38%———28.12%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total34.38%37.50%18.75%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.06 +0.88
SD 1.41 1.05 1.79
CV 0.73 0.98 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%7.41%—3.70%—18.52%
111.11%18.52%7.41%—7.41%3.70%48.15%
23.70%3.70%7.41%——7.41%22.22%
33.70%—7.41%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%25.93%29.63%—11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.96 -0.70
SD 0.90 1.93 2.07
CV 0.72 0.98 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.38%————9.38%
16.25%6.25%——3.12%—15.62%
2—12.50%12.50%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
36.25%9.38%6.25%6.25%——28.12%
43.12%3.12%—6.25%——12.50%
5+———————
Total15.62%40.62%18.75%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 1.59 +0.59
SD 1.15 1.16 1.52
CV 0.52 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%———22.22%
17.41%7.41%22.22%7.41%——44.44%
23.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%——18.52%
3——7.41%———7.41%
4———3.70%——3.70%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total22.22%14.81%48.15%14.81%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.56 -0.19
SD 1.24 1.01 1.42
CV 0.91 0.65 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KuPS 1587 67 41.20 +25.80 72.0% 26 31 37 41 46 51 56
Inter Turku 1505 61 41.86 +19.14 79.0% 27 33 38 42 45 50 54
Ilves 1496 60 42.20 +17.80 71.0% 26 32 38 42 46 50 57
SJK Seinajoki 1484 59 32.07 +26.93 97.0% 20 24 28 32 35 41 47
HJK 1413 49 39.52 +9.48 84.0% 23 29 36 40 43 47 52
Jaro 1236 34 22.47 +11.53 64.0% 7 12 18 22 27 33 39
VPS 1229 31 32.00 -1.00 12.0% 16 20 29 32 36 42 45
Gnistan 1229 33 27.30 +5.70 64.0% 16 19 24 27 30 39 43
Mariehamn 1226 32 20.81 +11.19 57.0% 7 10 17 20 25 33 37
AC Oulu 1177 27 20.95 +6.05 37.0% 6 11 17 21 25 32 35
Haka 1122 17 24.61 -7.61 3.0% 14 18 22 24 27 31 34
KTP 1104 21 20.82 +0.18 13.0% 11 14 17 20 24 28 31

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.95%
No Edge
40.68%22.60%36.72%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 13.75 Elo pts.
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.1
Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
23%
KuPS, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.20/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.53 * Some Luck: 4.53 to 6.8 * Lucky: 6.8 to 9.07 * Wild Swing: 9.07 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.89 * Off: 1.89 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.15 points
Some Luck
05.6714
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.574
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
SJK Seinajoki
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
Haka
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 157.02
2.36
Wide Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
85%
Wide Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Notable Separation
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Near-Lock
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.055
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

TPS Turku 6
KTP 2

Leg 1: TPS Turku 3-0 KTP

Leg 2: KTP 2-3 TPS Turku

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
KuPS23.00%18.00%23.00%21.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%————
Inter Turku28.00%24.00%20.00%17.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%———
Ilves27.00%31.00%14.00%13.00%11.00%2.00%2.00%—————
SJK Seinajoki1.00%4.00%4.00%14.00%18.00%28.00%20.00%7.00%—2.00%2.00%—
HJK20.00%18.00%23.00%21.00%7.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%———
Gnistan1.00%2.00%1.00%3.00%13.00%6.00%24.00%18.00%13.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%
Jaro——2.00%—5.00%10.00%13.00%7.00%8.00%17.00%20.00%18.00%
Mariehamn——1.00%—4.00%1.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%9.00%24.00%26.00%
VPS—3.00%11.00%8.00%22.00%23.00%12.00%12.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
AC Oulu——1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%3.00%13.00%18.00%11.00%20.00%26.00%
KTP—————2.00%6.00%6.00%19.00%24.00%18.00%25.00%
Haka———1.00%2.00%11.00%9.00%22.00%23.00%20.00%9.00%3.00%
Team123456789101112
KuPS8.00%16.50%27.70%32.20%15.60%———————
Inter Turku42.90%26.00%16.80%11.60%2.70%———————
Ilves27.30%29.00%20.90%16.90%5.90%———————
SJK Seinajoki1.40%3.90%10.30%18.30%66.10%———————
HJK20.40%24.60%24.30%21.00%9.70%———————
Gnistan—————100.00%——————
Jaro——————24.60%45.20%19.20%7.40%3.10%0.50%
Mariehamn——————4.70%16.80%32.20%25.50%15.90%4.90%
VPS——————66.40%24.60%6.00%2.60%0.30%0.10%
AC Oulu——————2.90%9.00%23.60%31.40%22.70%10.40%
KTP———————0.80%3.30%9.80%22.20%63.90%
Haka——————1.40%3.60%15.70%23.30%35.80%20.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
HJK 100% — —
Ilves 100% — —
Inter Turku 100% — —
KuPS 100% — —
SJK Seinajoki 100% — —
VPS 100% — —
Gnistan 93.00% 4.00% 3.00%
Haka 72.00% 16.00% 12.00%
Jaro 67.00% 19.00% 14.00%
AC Oulu 59.00% 23.00% 18.00%
Mariehamn 63.00% 16.00% 21.00%
KTP 46.00% 22.00% 32.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. With the league split already decided, contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
VPS 99.60% 0.30% 0.10%
Jaro 96.40% 3.10% 0.50%
Mariehamn 79.20% 15.90% 4.90%
AC Oulu 66.90% 22.70% 10.40%
Haka 44.00% 35.80% 20.20%
KTP 13.90% 22.20% 63.90%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-04-05 AC Oulu W 4-350.4 1345 1245 52.88% 23.42% 23.70%+0.64 +8.8 3
2025-04-05 @ VPS L 3-450.4 1245 1345 23.70% 23.42% 52.88%-0.64 -8.8 0
2025-04-05 Gnistan W 3-251.2 1292 1296 39.44% 23.97% 36.59%+0.06 +12.9 3
2025-04-05 @ Haka L 2-351.2 1296 1292 36.59% 23.97% 39.44%-0.06 -12.9 0
2025-04-05 HJK W 3-253.3 1426 1400 43.64% 23.90% 32.46%+0.23 +11.7 3
2025-04-05 @ Ilves L 2-353.3 1400 1426 32.46% 23.90% 43.64%-0.23 -11.7 0
2025-04-05 Jaro L 0-237.9 1234 1236 39.61% 23.97% 36.42%+0.06 -28.8 0
2025-04-05 @ Mariehamn W 2-037.9 1236 1234 36.42% 23.97% 39.61%-0.06 +28.8 3
2025-04-05 KuPS D 1-155.1 1347 1417 30.41% 23.84% 45.75%-0.32 +1.2 1
2025-04-05 @ Inter Turku D 1-155.1 1417 1347 45.75% 23.84% 30.41%+0.32 -1.2 1
2025-04-05 SJK Seinajoki L 0-141.1 1289 1316 36.23% 23.97% 39.80%-0.07 -14.2 0
2025-04-05 @ KTP W 1-041.1 1316 1289 39.80% 23.97% 36.23%+0.07 +14.3 3
2025-04-11 HJK W 1-044.7 1330 1388 31.90% 23.89% 44.22%-0.25 +16.7 6
2025-04-11 @ SJK Seinajoki L 0-144.7 1388 1330 44.22% 23.89% 31.90%+0.25 -16.7 0
2025-04-11 VPS D 2-258.8 1275 1354 29.26% 23.79% 46.95%-0.37 +1.0 1
2025-04-11 @ KTP D 2-258.8 1354 1275 46.95% 23.79% 29.26%+0.37 -1.1 4
2025-04-12 AC Oulu W 1-035.1 1416 1236 61.17% 22.40% 16.43%+1.09 +7.3 4
2025-04-12 @ KuPS L 0-135.1 1236 1416 16.43% 22.40% 61.17%-1.09 -7.3 0
2025-04-12 Gnistan W 3-032.7 1348 1283 48.72% 23.70% 27.58%+0.45 +31.5 4
2025-04-12 @ Inter Turku L 0-332.7 1283 1348 27.58% 23.70% 48.72%-0.45 -31.5 0
2025-04-12 Jaro W 2-140.7 1438 1265 60.57% 22.50% 16.93%+1.05 +7.1 6
2025-04-12 @ Ilves L 1-240.7 1265 1438 16.93% 22.50% 60.57%-1.05 -7.1 3
2025-04-12 Mariehamn L 0-145.5 1305 1205 52.98% 23.41% 23.61%+0.65 -19.5 3
2025-04-12 @ Haka W 1-045.5 1205 1305 23.61% 23.41% 52.98%-0.65 +19.5 3
2025-04-19 AC Oulu W 2-143.1 1286 1229 47.63% 23.76% 28.61%+0.40 +11.2 6
2025-04-19 @ Haka L 1-243.1 1229 1286 28.61% 23.76% 47.63%-0.40 -11.2 0
2025-04-19 Ilves L 0-531.1 1276 1445 19.60% 22.94% 57.45%-0.88 -37.9 1
2025-04-19 @ KTP W 5-031.1 1445 1276 57.45% 22.94% 19.60%+0.88 +37.9 9
2025-04-19 Inter Turku L 0-238.9 1353 1380 36.10% 23.97% 39.93%-0.08 -26.8 4
2025-04-19 @ VPS W 2-038.9 1380 1353 39.93% 23.97% 36.10%+0.08 +26.8 7
2025-04-19 Jaro W 1-035.8 1423 1258 59.84% 22.61% 17.55%+1.01 +7.8 7
2025-04-19 @ KuPS L 0-135.8 1258 1423 17.55% 22.61% 59.84%-1.01 -7.8 3
2025-04-19 SJK Seinajoki L 1-242.0 1224 1346 24.22% 23.46% 52.31%-0.61 -9.7 3
2025-04-19 @ Mariehamn W 2-142.0 1346 1224 52.31% 23.46% 24.22%+0.61 +9.7 9
2025-04-22 Gnistan L 0-146.7 1371 1252 55.12% 23.21% 21.67%+0.75 -20.2 0
2025-04-22 @ HJK W 1-046.7 1252 1371 21.67% 23.21% 55.12%-0.75 +20.2 3
2025-04-23 AC Oulu W 3-137.5 1356 1218 57.13% 22.98% 19.89%+0.86 +14.2 12
2025-04-23 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-337.5 1218 1356 19.89% 22.98% 57.13%-0.86 -14.2 0
2025-04-23 Mariehamn W 4-133.3 1431 1215 64.43% 21.78% 13.79%+1.30 +14.4 10
2025-04-23 @ KuPS L 1-433.3 1215 1431 13.79% 21.78% 64.43%-1.30 -14.4 3
2025-04-26 Inter Turku L 1-434.1 1204 1407 16.72% 22.46% 60.82%-1.07 -17.2 0
2025-04-26 @ AC Oulu W 4-134.1 1407 1204 60.82% 22.46% 16.72%+1.07 +17.2 10
2025-04-26 KTP L 2-352.2 1250 1238 41.65% 23.95% 34.40%+0.15 -14.2 3
2025-04-26 @ Jaro W 3-252.2 1238 1250 34.40% 23.95% 41.65%-0.15 +14.2 4
2025-04-26 VPS W 3-142.4 1351 1326 43.47% 23.91% 32.62%+0.22 +21.5 3
2025-04-26 @ HJK L 1-342.4 1326 1351 32.62% 23.91% 43.47%-0.22 -21.5 4
2025-04-27 Ilves W 3-260.4 1200 1483 11.46% 21.04% 67.50%-1.52 +21.8 6
2025-04-27 @ Mariehamn L 2-360.4 1483 1200 67.50% 21.04% 11.46%+1.52 -21.8 9
2025-04-27 KuPS L 1-241.7 1272 1445 19.22% 22.89% 57.90%-0.90 -8.0 3
2025-04-27 @ Gnistan W 2-141.7 1445 1272 57.90% 22.89% 19.22%+0.90 +8.0 13
2025-04-28 Haka D 2-259.2 1370 1297 49.76% 23.64% 26.59%+0.49 -1.4 13
2025-04-28 @ SJK Seinajoki D 2-259.2 1297 1370 26.59% 23.64% 49.76%-0.49 +1.4 7
2025-05-02 AC Oulu L 1-345.9 1252 1187 48.80% 23.70% 27.51%+0.45 -29.6 4
2025-05-02 @ KTP W 3-145.9 1187 1252 27.51% 23.70% 48.80%-0.45 +29.6 3
2025-05-02 Ilves W 1-048.8 1304 1461 20.75% 23.10% 56.16%-0.81 +20.5 7
2025-05-02 @ VPS L 0-148.8 1461 1304 56.16% 23.10% 20.75%+0.81 -20.5 9
2025-05-02 Jaro L 0-144.3 1298 1236 48.38% 23.72% 27.90%+0.43 -18.0 7
2025-05-02 @ Haka W 1-044.3 1236 1298 27.90% 23.72% 48.38%-0.43 +18.0 6
2025-05-02 SJK Seinajoki W 1-041.0 1453 1369 51.05% 23.56% 25.39%+0.55 +10.7 16
2025-05-02 @ KuPS L 0-141.0 1369 1453 25.39% 23.56% 51.05%-0.55 -10.7 13
2025-05-03 HJK D 1-155.8 1424 1372 46.96% 23.79% 29.25%+0.37 -1.4 11
2025-05-03 @ Inter Turku D 1-155.8 1372 1424 29.25% 23.79% 46.96%-0.37 +1.4 4
2025-05-03 Mariehamn W 2-035.2 1264 1222 45.75% 23.84% 30.42%+0.32 +23.4 6
2025-05-03 @ Gnistan L 0-235.2 1222 1264 30.42% 23.84% 45.75%-0.32 -23.5 6
2025-05-09 Haka W 3-246.5 1440 1280 59.35% 22.69% 17.97%+0.98 +7.1 12
2025-05-09 @ Ilves L 2-346.5 1280 1440 17.97% 22.69% 59.35%-0.98 -7.1 7
2025-05-10 Gnistan L 2-348.8 1216 1288 30.19% 23.83% 45.98%-0.33 -11.1 3
2025-05-10 @ AC Oulu W 3-248.8 1288 1216 45.98% 23.83% 30.19%+0.33 +11.1 9
2025-05-10 Inter Turku D 2-259.2 1199 1422 15.14% 22.12% 62.74%-1.19 +3.1 7
2025-05-10 @ Mariehamn D 2-259.2 1422 1199 62.74% 22.12% 15.14%+1.19 -3.1 12
2025-05-10 KTP W 3-028.0 1464 1223 66.43% 21.32% 12.25%+1.44 +15.2 19
2025-05-10 @ KuPS L 0-328.0 1223 1464 12.25% 21.32% 66.43%-1.44 -15.2 4
2025-05-11 HJK L 0-331.7 1254 1374 24.45% 23.48% 52.07%-0.60 -28.5 6
2025-05-11 @ Jaro W 3-031.7 1374 1254 52.07% 23.48% 24.45%+0.60 +28.5 7
2025-05-12 VPS L 2-354.3 1358 1325 44.57% 23.88% 31.55%+0.27 -15.0 13
2025-05-12 @ SJK Seinajoki W 3-254.3 1325 1358 31.55% 23.88% 44.57%-0.27 +15.0 10
2025-05-16 KuPS L 1-338.2 1273 1479 16.50% 22.41% 61.09%-1.09 -12.0 7
2025-05-16 @ Haka W 3-138.2 1479 1273 61.09% 22.41% 16.50%+1.09 +12.0 22
2025-05-16 SJK Seinajoki D 2-258.8 1299 1343 33.69% 23.93% 42.38%-0.17 +0.5 10
2025-05-16 @ Gnistan D 2-258.8 1343 1299 42.38% 23.93% 33.69%+0.17 -0.5 14
2025-05-17 Ilves W 3-148.4 1419 1447 35.98% 23.97% 40.05%-0.08 +25.1 15
2025-05-17 @ Inter Turku L 1-348.4 1447 1419 40.05% 23.97% 35.98%+0.08 -25.1 12
2025-05-17 Jaro D 0-049.3 1340 1225 54.59% 23.26% 22.15%+0.73 -3.0 11
2025-05-17 @ VPS D 0-049.3 1225 1340 22.15% 23.26% 54.59%-0.73 +3.0 7
2025-05-17 KTP W 4-133.6 1402 1208 62.59% 22.15% 15.26%+1.18 +15.8 10
2025-05-17 @ HJK L 1-433.6 1208 1402 15.26% 22.15% 62.59%-1.18 -15.8 4
2025-05-17 Mariehamn L 0-141.7 1205 1202 40.47% 23.96% 35.57%+0.10 -15.5 3
2025-05-17 @ AC Oulu W 1-041.7 1202 1205 35.57% 23.96% 40.47%-0.10 +15.5 10
2025-05-20 SJK Seinajoki W 4-246.1 1418 1343 50.00% 23.63% 26.37%+0.50 +16.2 13
2025-05-20 @ HJK L 2-446.1 1343 1418 26.37% 23.63% 50.00%-0.50 -16.2 14
2025-05-21 KuPS W 3-043.8 1422 1491 30.53% 23.84% 45.63%-0.31 +46.9 15
2025-05-21 @ Ilves L 0-343.8 1491 1422 45.63% 23.84% 30.53%+0.31 -46.8 22
2025-05-23 Haka D 0-048.7 1192 1261 30.44% 23.84% 45.72%-0.31 +1.4 5
2025-05-23 @ KTP D 0-048.7 1261 1192 45.72% 23.84% 30.44%+0.31 -1.4 8
2025-05-24 AC Oulu D 0-050.8 1469 1190 69.27% 20.54% 10.19%+1.66 -5.9 16
2025-05-24 @ Ilves D 0-050.8 1190 1469 10.19% 20.54% 69.27%-1.66 +5.9 4
2025-05-24 Gnistan D 1-152.8 1228 1299 30.27% 23.83% 45.89%-0.32 +1.2 8
2025-05-24 @ Jaro D 1-152.8 1299 1228 45.89% 23.83% 30.27%+0.32 -1.2 11
2025-05-24 HJK L 0-428.3 1217 1434 15.63% 22.23% 62.14%-1.15 -25.0 10
2025-05-24 @ Mariehamn W 4-028.3 1434 1217 62.14% 22.23% 15.63%+1.15 +25.0 16
2025-05-25 Inter Turku L 0-139.6 1327 1445 24.68% 23.50% 51.82%-0.59 -10.5 14
2025-05-25 @ SJK Seinajoki W 1-039.6 1445 1327 51.82% 23.50% 24.68%+0.59 +10.5 18
2025-05-25 VPS L 0-244.9 1444 1337 53.76% 23.34% 22.91%+0.68 -37.2 22
2025-05-25 @ KuPS W 2-044.9 1337 1444 22.91% 23.34% 53.76%-0.68 +37.2 14
2025-05-31 KuPS D 0-053.8 1459 1407 47.11% 23.78% 29.11%+0.37 -1.6 17
2025-05-31 @ HJK D 0-053.8 1407 1459 29.11% 23.78% 47.11%-0.37 +1.6 23
2025-05-31 Mariehamn D 2-257.7 1193 1192 40.12% 23.97% 35.92%+0.08 -0.2 6
2025-05-31 @ KTP D 2-257.7 1192 1193 35.92% 23.97% 40.12%-0.08 +0.2 11
2025-05-31 SJK Seinajoki D 2-258.2 1195 1316 24.39% 23.48% 52.13%-0.60 +1.7 5
2025-05-31 @ AC Oulu D 2-258.2 1316 1195 52.13% 23.48% 24.39%+0.60 -1.7 15
2025-05-31 VPS W 2-150.6 1260 1374 25.08% 23.53% 51.39%-0.57 +17.9 11
2025-05-31 @ Haka L 1-250.6 1374 1260 51.39% 23.53% 25.08%+0.57 -17.9 14
2025-06-01 Ilves L 0-234.2 1298 1463 19.90% 22.98% 57.11%-0.86 -16.4 11
2025-06-01 @ Gnistan W 2-034.2 1463 1298 57.11% 22.98% 19.90%+0.86 +16.4 19
2025-06-01 Inter Turku L 0-135.0 1230 1455 15.04% 22.10% 62.87%-1.20 -6.8 8
2025-06-01 @ Jaro W 1-035.0 1455 1230 62.87% 22.10% 15.04%+1.20 +6.8 21
2025-06-14 Haka D 1-155.2 1462 1278 61.63% 22.32% 16.05%+1.12 -3.9 22
2025-06-14 @ Inter Turku D 1-155.2 1278 1462 16.05% 22.32% 61.63%-1.12 +3.9 12
2025-06-14 HJK L 0-427.2 1197 1458 12.72% 21.47% 65.81%-1.40 -20.6 5
2025-06-14 @ AC Oulu W 4-027.2 1458 1197 65.81% 21.47% 12.72%+1.40 +20.6 20
2025-06-14 Ilves L 0-338.4 1409 1480 30.21% 23.83% 45.96%-0.32 -33.9 23
2025-06-14 @ KuPS W 3-038.4 1480 1409 45.96% 23.83% 30.21%+0.32 +33.9 22
2025-06-14 Jaro W 3-138.9 1314 1223 51.94% 23.49% 24.57%+0.59 +17.0 18
2025-06-14 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-338.9 1223 1314 24.57% 23.49% 51.94%-0.59 -17.0 8
2025-06-14 KTP W 2-141.8 1281 1193 51.59% 23.52% 24.90%+0.58 +10.0 14
2025-06-14 @ Gnistan L 1-241.8 1193 1281 24.90% 23.52% 51.59%-0.58 -10.0 6
2025-06-14 VPS L 1-533.5 1192 1356 20.04% 23.00% 56.95%-0.85 -26.1 11
2025-06-14 @ Mariehamn W 5-133.5 1356 1192 56.95% 23.00% 20.04%+0.85 +26.1 17
2025-06-18 AC Oulu W 2-143.9 1206 1177 44.03% 23.89% 32.08%+0.24 +12.2 11
2025-06-18 @ Jaro L 1-243.9 1177 1206 32.08% 23.89% 44.03%-0.24 -12.2 5
2025-06-18 Gnistan D 0-050.1 1382 1291 51.89% 23.49% 24.62%+0.59 -2.5 18
2025-06-18 @ VPS D 0-050.1 1291 1382 24.62% 23.49% 51.89%-0.59 +2.5 15
2025-06-18 Haka W 3-137.9 1478 1282 62.77% 22.12% 15.12%+1.19 +11.1 23
2025-06-18 @ HJK L 1-337.9 1282 1478 15.12% 22.12% 62.77%-1.19 -11.1 12
2025-06-18 KuPS W 1-047.8 1166 1375 16.29% 22.37% 61.34%-1.10 +22.3 14
2025-06-18 @ Mariehamn L 0-147.8 1375 1166 61.34% 22.37% 16.29%+1.10 -22.3 23
2025-06-18 SJK Seinajoki L 2-362.0 1514 1331 61.45% 22.35% 16.20%+1.11 -20.0 22
2025-06-18 @ Ilves W 3-262.0 1331 1514 16.20% 22.35% 61.45%-1.11 +20.0 21
2025-06-19 KTP W 5-026.8 1458 1183 68.95% 20.63% 10.42%+1.63 +20.8 25
2025-06-19 @ Inter Turku L 0-526.8 1183 1458 10.42% 20.63% 68.95%-1.63 -20.8 6
2025-06-27 HJK W 3-044.0 1352 1489 22.65% 23.31% 54.03%-0.70 +54.3 26
2025-06-27 @ KuPS L 0-344.0 1489 1352 54.03% 23.31% 22.65%+0.70 -54.3 23
2025-06-27 Inter Turku D 2-261.0 1294 1479 18.20% 22.73% 59.08%-0.97 +2.6 16
2025-06-27 @ Gnistan D 2-261.0 1479 1294 59.08% 22.73% 18.20%+0.97 -2.6 26
2025-06-28 Ilves L 0-429.7 1271 1494 15.21% 22.14% 62.66%-1.18 -24.4 12
2025-06-28 @ Haka W 4-029.7 1494 1271 62.66% 22.14% 15.21%+1.18 +24.4 25
2025-06-28 Jaro W 3-252.6 1162 1218 32.19% 23.90% 43.92%-0.24 +14.8 9
2025-06-28 @ KTP L 2-352.6 1218 1162 43.92% 23.90% 32.19%+0.24 -14.8 11
2025-06-28 Mariehamn W 4-134.1 1351 1189 59.63% 22.64% 17.73%+1.00 +18.1 24
2025-06-28 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-434.1 1189 1351 17.73% 22.64% 59.63%-1.00 -18.2 14
2025-06-28 VPS W 2-152.8 1164 1380 15.75% 22.26% 61.99%-1.14 +21.2 8
2025-06-28 @ AC Oulu L 1-252.8 1380 1164 61.99% 22.26% 15.75%+1.14 -21.2 18
2025-07-01 Gnistan W 6-238.0 1407 1296 54.10% 23.31% 22.59%+0.70 +24.6 29
2025-07-01 @ KuPS L 2-638.0 1296 1407 22.59% 23.31% 54.10%-0.70 -24.6 16
2025-07-02 Haka L 1-251.2 1359 1246 54.36% 23.28% 22.35%+0.71 -18.8 18
2025-07-02 @ VPS W 2-151.2 1246 1359 22.35% 23.28% 54.36%-0.71 +18.8 15
2025-07-02 Jaro L 2-359.5 1435 1203 65.72% 21.49% 12.79%+1.39 -21.3 23
2025-07-02 @ HJK W 3-259.5 1203 1435 12.79% 21.49% 65.72%-1.39 +21.3 14
2025-07-02 KTP W 2-136.8 1518 1177 73.25% 19.16% 7.59%+2.00 +3.2 28
2025-07-02 @ Ilves L 1-236.8 1177 1518 7.59% 19.16% 73.25%-2.00 -3.2 9
2025-07-02 Mariehamn D 0-050.9 1476 1170 71.04% 19.97% 8.99%+1.81 -6.2 27
2025-07-02 @ Inter Turku D 0-050.9 1170 1476 8.99% 19.97% 71.04%-1.81 +6.2 15
2025-07-04 KuPS D 2-259.3 1186 1431 13.66% 21.74% 64.60%-1.31 +3.3 9
2025-07-04 @ AC Oulu D 2-259.3 1431 1186 64.60% 21.74% 13.66%+1.31 -3.3 30
2025-07-05 HJK L 0-237.3 1340 1414 29.86% 23.82% 46.32%-0.34 -23.1 18
2025-07-05 @ VPS W 2-037.3 1414 1340 46.32% 23.82% 29.86%+0.34 +23.1 26
2025-07-05 Ilves D 1-158.5 1370 1521 21.21% 23.15% 55.64%-0.78 +2.9 25
2025-07-05 @ SJK Seinajoki D 1-158.5 1521 1370 55.64% 23.15% 21.21%+0.78 -2.9 29
2025-07-06 Inter Turku L 0-136.2 1265 1470 16.56% 22.43% 61.01%-1.08 -7.4 15
2025-07-06 @ Haka W 1-036.2 1470 1265 61.01% 22.43% 16.56%+1.08 +7.4 30
2025-07-06 Mariehamn D 1-152.4 1224 1177 46.51% 23.81% 29.68%+0.35 -1.3 15
2025-07-06 @ Jaro D 1-152.4 1177 1224 29.68% 23.81% 46.51%-0.35 +1.3 16
2025-07-07 Gnistan D 0-048.8 1174 1272 26.93% 23.66% 49.40%-0.48 +2.0 10
2025-07-07 @ KTP D 0-048.8 1272 1174 49.40% 23.66% 26.93%+0.48 -2.0 17
2025-07-12 Jaro W 3-135.5 1477 1223 67.43% 21.06% 11.51%+1.51 +8.5 33
2025-07-12 @ Inter Turku L 1-335.5 1223 1477 11.51% 21.06% 67.43%-1.51 -8.5 15
2025-07-13 Haka W 2-036.5 1270 1258 41.70% 23.94% 34.36%+0.15 +25.8 20
2025-07-13 @ Gnistan L 0-236.5 1258 1270 34.36% 23.94% 41.70%-0.15 -25.8 15
2025-07-13 KTP W 3-249.7 1189 1176 41.82% 23.94% 34.24%+0.15 +12.2 12
2025-07-13 @ AC Oulu L 2-349.7 1176 1189 34.24% 23.94% 41.82%-0.15 -12.2 10
2025-07-14 VPS W 3-247.7 1518 1317 63.18% 22.04% 14.78%+1.22 +5.9 32
2025-07-14 @ Ilves L 2-347.7 1317 1518 14.78% 22.04% 63.18%-1.22 -5.9 18
2025-07-18 Inter Turku D 2-260.0 1164 1486 9.48% 20.21% 70.31%-1.74 +4.0 11
2025-07-18 @ KTP D 2-260.0 1486 1164 70.31% 20.21% 9.48%+1.74 -4.0 34
2025-07-19 KuPS D 1-154.8 1311 1428 24.78% 23.51% 51.71%-0.58 +2.2 19
2025-07-19 @ VPS D 1-154.8 1428 1311 51.71% 23.51% 24.78%+0.58 -2.2 31
2025-07-20 AC Oulu W 3-135.3 1437 1201 66.03% 21.42% 12.56%+1.41 +9.3 29
2025-07-20 @ HJK L 1-335.3 1201 1437 12.56% 21.42% 66.03%-1.41 -9.3 12
2025-07-20 Gnistan W 3-140.3 1372 1296 50.17% 23.62% 26.21%+0.51 +18.0 28
2025-07-20 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-340.3 1296 1372 26.21% 23.62% 50.17%-0.51 -18.0 20
2025-07-20 Ilves L 0-133.7 1215 1524 10.07% 20.48% 69.45%-1.67 -4.6 15
2025-07-20 @ Jaro W 1-033.7 1524 1215 69.45% 20.48% 10.07%+1.67 +4.6 35
2025-07-21 Haka D 1-152.4 1178 1232 32.46% 23.90% 43.63%-0.23 +0.9 17
2025-07-21 @ Mariehamn D 1-152.4 1232 1178 43.63% 23.90% 32.46%+0.23 -0.9 16
2025-07-25 VPS D 2-258.2 1210 1313 26.37% 23.63% 50.01%-0.50 +1.4 16
2025-07-25 @ Jaro D 2-258.2 1313 1210 50.01% 23.63% 26.37%+0.50 -1.4 20
2025-07-26 AC Oulu L 0-140.9 1179 1192 38.11% 23.97% 37.91%+0.00 -14.8 17
2025-07-26 @ Mariehamn W 1-040.9 1192 1179 37.91% 23.97% 38.11%+0.00 +14.8 15
2025-07-26 KTP L 2-354.0 1231 1168 48.48% 23.71% 27.80%+0.44 -16.1 16
2025-07-26 @ Haka W 3-254.0 1168 1231 27.80% 23.71% 48.48%-0.44 +16.1 14
2025-07-27 SJK Seinajoki W 4-141.3 1482 1390 51.91% 23.49% 24.59%+0.59 +24.1 37
2025-07-27 @ Inter Turku L 1-441.3 1390 1482 24.59% 23.49% 51.91%-0.59 -24.1 28
2025-07-28 HJK L 2-443.2 1278 1446 19.62% 22.94% 57.44%-0.88 -12.6 20
2025-07-28 @ Gnistan W 4-243.2 1446 1278 57.44% 22.94% 19.62%+0.88 +12.6 32
2025-08-01 Mariehamn D 1-152.9 1312 1164 58.11% 22.86% 19.03%+0.91 -3.3 21
2025-08-01 @ VPS D 1-152.9 1164 1312 19.03% 22.86% 58.11%-0.91 +3.3 18
2025-08-02 Haka W 3-244.2 1426 1215 63.99% 21.87% 14.14%+1.27 +5.7 34
2025-08-02 @ KuPS L 2-344.2 1215 1426 14.14% 21.87% 63.99%-1.27 -5.7 16
2025-08-02 Jaro L 0-141.3 1207 1212 39.29% 23.97% 36.74%+0.05 -15.2 15
2025-08-02 @ AC Oulu W 1-041.3 1212 1207 36.74% 23.97% 39.29%-0.05 +15.2 19
2025-08-03 KTP W 3-028.4 1366 1184 61.49% 22.35% 16.17%+1.11 +19.8 31
2025-08-03 @ SJK Seinajoki L 0-328.4 1184 1366 16.17% 22.35% 61.49%-1.11 -19.8 14
2025-08-04 Gnistan D 2-262.0 1529 1265 68.14% 20.87% 10.99%+1.57 -3.8 36
2025-08-04 @ Ilves D 2-262.0 1265 1529 10.99% 20.87% 68.14%-1.57 +3.8 21
2025-08-04 Inter Turku L 1-447.2 1459 1506 33.37% 23.93% 42.70%-0.19 -30.9 32
2025-08-04 @ HJK W 4-147.2 1506 1459 42.70% 23.93% 33.37%+0.19 +30.9 40
2025-08-08 AC Oulu W 3-242.4 1537 1191 73.50% 19.07% 7.43%+2.03 +3.0 43
2025-08-08 @ Inter Turku L 2-342.4 1191 1537 7.43% 19.07% 73.50%-2.03 -3.0 15
2025-08-09 Gnistan L 2-540.0 1167 1269 26.53% 23.64% 49.83%-0.50 -22.2 18
2025-08-09 @ Mariehamn W 5-240.0 1269 1167 49.83% 23.64% 26.53%+0.50 +22.3 24
2025-08-09 Haka W 2-144.5 1227 1209 42.44% 23.93% 33.63%+0.18 +12.7 22
2025-08-09 @ Jaro L 1-244.5 1209 1227 33.63% 23.93% 42.44%-0.18 -12.7 16
2025-08-09 KuPS L 0-229.5 1164 1431 12.31% 21.34% 66.35%-1.43 -10.5 14
2025-08-09 @ KTP W 2-029.5 1431 1164 66.35% 21.34% 12.31%+1.43 +10.5 37
2025-08-10 SJK Seinajoki L 1-244.7 1308 1386 29.39% 23.79% 46.82%-0.36 -11.4 21
2025-08-10 @ VPS W 2-144.7 1386 1308 46.82% 23.79% 29.39%+0.36 +11.4 34
2025-08-11 Ilves W 5-150.1 1428 1525 27.05% 23.67% 49.28%-0.47 +54.5 35
2025-08-11 @ HJK L 1-550.1 1525 1428 49.28% 23.67% 27.05%+0.47 -54.5 36
2025-08-15 VPS D 0-049.3 1291 1297 39.15% 23.97% 36.88%+0.04 -0.2 25
2025-08-15 @ Gnistan D 0-049.3 1297 1291 36.88% 23.97% 39.15%-0.04 +0.2 22
2025-08-16 Ilves L 0-426.8 1189 1471 11.49% 21.05% 67.46%-1.52 -18.6 15
2025-08-16 @ AC Oulu W 4-026.8 1471 1189 67.46% 21.05% 11.49%+1.52 +18.6 39
2025-08-16 KTP W 3-034.6 1145 1153 38.78% 23.97% 37.25%+0.03 +39.9 21
2025-08-16 @ Mariehamn L 0-334.6 1153 1145 37.25% 23.97% 38.78%-0.03 -39.9 14
2025-08-17 HJK L 1-238.2 1196 1482 11.27% 20.97% 67.76%-1.54 -4.8 16
2025-08-17 @ Haka W 2-138.2 1482 1196 67.76% 20.97% 11.27%+1.54 +4.8 38
2025-08-17 Inter Turku W 2-158.1 1442 1540 26.97% 23.67% 49.36%-0.47 +17.2 40
2025-08-17 @ KuPS L 1-258.1 1540 1442 49.36% 23.67% 26.97%+0.47 -17.2 43
2025-08-18 SJK Seinajoki L 0-429.9 1239 1397 20.59% 23.08% 56.34%-0.82 -32.1 22
2025-08-18 @ Jaro W 4-029.9 1397 1239 56.34% 23.08% 20.59%+0.82 +32.1 37
2025-08-22 KTP W 3-243.9 1297 1114 61.58% 22.33% 16.09%+1.11 +6.4 25
2025-08-22 @ VPS L 2-343.9 1114 1297 16.09% 22.33% 61.58%-1.11 -6.4 14
2025-08-23 Inter Turku W 1-052.0 1489 1522 35.25% 23.96% 40.79%-0.11 +15.6 42
2025-08-23 @ Ilves L 0-152.0 1522 1489 40.79% 23.96% 35.25%+0.11 -15.6 43
2025-08-24 KuPS L 1-335.8 1207 1459 13.26% 21.63% 65.11%-1.35 -9.8 22
2025-08-24 @ Jaro W 3-135.8 1459 1207 65.11% 21.63% 13.26%+1.35 +9.8 43
2025-08-24 Mariehamn W 8-230.7 1487 1185 70.82% 20.05% 9.14%+1.79 +14.8 41
2025-08-24 @ HJK L 2-830.7 1185 1487 9.14% 20.05% 70.82%-1.79 -14.8 21
2025-08-25 AC Oulu W 3-245.9 1291 1170 55.30% 23.19% 21.51%+0.76 +8.3 28
2025-08-25 @ Gnistan L 2-345.9 1170 1291 21.51% 23.19% 55.30%-0.76 -8.3 15
2025-08-25 SJK Seinajoki L 2-344.0 1192 1430 14.17% 21.88% 63.96%-1.27 -5.7 16
2025-08-25 @ Haka W 3-244.0 1430 1192 63.96% 21.88% 14.17%+1.27 +5.7 40
2025-08-31 Haka W 3-251.3 1162 1186 36.51% 23.97% 39.52%-0.06 +13.6 18
2025-08-31 @ AC Oulu L 2-351.3 1186 1162 39.52% 23.97% 36.51%+0.06 -13.6 16
2025-08-31 HJK L 1-429.9 1107 1502 6.68% 18.54% 74.77%-2.15 -6.8 14
2025-08-31 @ KTP W 4-129.9 1502 1107 74.77% 18.54% 6.68%+2.15 +6.9 44
2025-08-31 Jaro L 1-250.3 1299 1197 53.14% 23.39% 23.47%+0.65 -18.4 28
2025-08-31 @ Gnistan W 2-150.3 1197 1299 23.47% 23.39% 53.14%-0.65 +18.4 25
2025-08-31 KuPS D 1-158.7 1435 1469 35.20% 23.96% 40.85%-0.11 +0.4 41
2025-08-31 @ SJK Seinajoki D 1-158.7 1469 1435 40.85% 23.96% 35.20%+0.11 -0.4 44
2025-08-31 Mariehamn W 2-136.7 1505 1170 72.86% 19.31% 7.82%+1.97 +3.3 45
2025-08-31 @ Ilves L 1-236.7 1170 1505 7.82% 19.31% 72.86%-1.97 -3.3 21
2025-08-31 VPS W 2-141.8 1507 1304 63.34% 22.00% 14.66%+1.23 +6.2 46
2025-08-31 @ Inter Turku L 1-241.8 1304 1507 14.66% 22.00% 63.34%-1.23 -6.2 25

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-09-13 Haka D 1-152.3 1167 1172 39.21% 23.97% 36.82%+0.05 -0.2 1
2025-09-13 @ Mariehamn D 1-152.3 1172 1167 36.82% 23.97% 39.21%-0.05 +0.2 1
2025-09-13 HJK D 3-369.9 1436 1509 29.97% 23.82% 46.21%-0.34 +0.8 1
2025-09-13 @ SJK Seinajoki D 3-369.9 1509 1436 46.21% 23.82% 29.97%+0.34 -0.8 1
2025-09-13 Inter Turku L 0-233.0 1281 1513 14.56% 21.98% 63.46%-1.23 -12.3 0
2025-09-13 @ Gnistan W 2-033.0 1513 1281 63.46% 21.98% 14.56%+1.23 +12.4 3
2025-09-13 KTP W 2-138.3 1297 1100 62.79% 22.11% 15.10%+1.19 +6.4 3
2025-09-13 @ VPS L 1-238.3 1100 1297 15.10% 22.11% 62.79%-1.19 -6.4 0
2025-09-14 AC Oulu L 1-247.9 1216 1175 45.56% 23.84% 30.59%+0.31 -16.1 0
2025-09-14 @ Jaro W 2-147.9 1175 1216 30.59% 23.84% 45.56%-0.31 +16.1 3
2025-09-14 Ilves L 2-454.9 1469 1508 34.38% 23.95% 41.67%-0.15 -20.0 0
2025-09-14 @ KuPS W 4-254.9 1508 1469 41.67% 23.95% 34.38%+0.15 +20.0 3
2025-09-19 AC Oulu L 0-140.7 1172 1191 37.28% 23.97% 38.75%-0.03 -14.6 1
2025-09-19 @ Haka W 1-040.7 1191 1172 38.75% 23.97% 37.28%+0.03 +14.6 6
2025-09-19 Jaro L 1-241.9 1094 1200 26.03% 23.60% 50.36%-0.52 -10.3 0
2025-09-19 @ KTP W 2-141.9 1200 1094 50.36% 23.60% 26.03%+0.52 +10.3 3
2025-09-21 VPS W 2-150.5 1167 1304 22.66% 23.31% 54.03%-0.70 +18.7 4
2025-09-21 @ Mariehamn L 1-250.5 1304 1167 54.03% 23.31% 22.66%+0.70 -18.7 3
2025-09-23 Gnistan W 3-245.3 1528 1268 67.84% 20.95% 11.21%+1.54 +4.5 6
2025-09-23 @ Ilves L 2-345.3 1268 1528 11.21% 20.95% 67.84%-1.54 -4.5 0
2025-09-23 HJK D 0-059.6 1525 1508 42.41% 23.93% 33.66%+0.18 -0.8 4
2025-09-23 @ Inter Turku D 0-059.6 1508 1525 33.66% 23.93% 42.41%-0.18 +0.8 2
2025-09-23 SJK Seinajoki W 3-255.5 1449 1437 41.66% 23.95% 34.39%+0.15 +12.2 3
2025-09-23 @ KuPS L 2-355.5 1437 1449 34.39% 23.95% 41.66%-0.15 -12.2 1
2025-09-26 Haka W 1-035.6 1285 1158 55.97% 23.12% 20.91%+0.80 +9.1 6
2025-09-26 @ VPS L 0-135.6 1158 1285 20.91% 23.12% 55.97%-0.80 -9.1 1
2025-09-27 Inter Turku W 2-157.0 1424 1525 26.67% 23.65% 49.68%-0.49 +17.4 4
2025-09-27 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-257.0 1525 1424 49.68% 23.65% 26.67%+0.49 -17.4 4
2025-09-27 KTP L 0-242.2 1206 1084 55.44% 23.17% 21.38%+0.77 -38.3 6
2025-09-27 @ AC Oulu W 2-042.2 1084 1206 21.38% 23.17% 55.44%-0.77 +38.3 3
2025-09-27 KuPS L 0-429.7 1264 1461 17.20% 22.55% 60.25%-1.03 -27.4 0
2025-09-27 @ Gnistan W 4-029.7 1461 1264 60.25% 22.55% 17.20%+1.03 +27.3 6
2025-09-28 Mariehamn L 2-352.5 1210 1185 43.42% 23.91% 32.67%+0.22 -14.7 3
2025-09-28 @ Jaro W 3-252.5 1185 1210 32.67% 23.91% 43.42%-0.22 +14.7 7
2025-09-29 Ilves D 2-269.1 1509 1533 36.57% 23.97% 39.46%-0.06 +0.2 3
2025-09-29 @ HJK D 2-269.1 1533 1509 39.46% 23.97% 36.57%+0.06 -0.2 7
2025-10-03 Gnistan L 2-361.5 1509 1237 68.76% 20.69% 10.55%+1.62 -22.2 3
2025-10-03 @ HJK W 3-261.5 1237 1509 10.55% 20.69% 68.76%-1.62 +22.2 3
2025-10-03 Haka W 2-143.2 1195 1149 46.35% 23.81% 29.84%+0.34 +11.5 6
2025-10-03 @ Jaro L 1-243.2 1149 1195 29.84% 23.81% 46.35%-0.34 -11.5 1
2025-10-04 Ilves W 2-157.6 1442 1532 27.79% 23.71% 48.49%-0.44 +17.0 7
2025-10-04 @ SJK Seinajoki L 1-257.6 1532 1442 48.49% 23.71% 27.79%+0.44 -17.0 7
2025-10-04 Mariehamn D 1-152.4 1122 1200 29.34% 23.79% 46.87%-0.36 +1.4 4
2025-10-04 @ KTP D 1-152.4 1200 1122 46.87% 23.79% 29.34%+0.36 -1.4 8
2025-10-04 VPS W 2-041.7 1168 1294 23.76% 23.42% 52.82%-0.64 +36.6 9
2025-10-04 @ AC Oulu L 0-241.7 1294 1168 52.82% 23.42% 23.76%+0.64 -36.6 6
2025-10-05 KuPS L 0-345.9 1507 1488 42.65% 23.93% 33.42%+0.19 -44.3 4
2025-10-05 @ Inter Turku W 3-045.9 1488 1507 33.42% 23.93% 42.65%-0.19 +44.3 9
2025-10-16 KuPS D 1-164.0 1515 1532 37.55% 23.97% 38.47%-0.02 +0.1 8
2025-10-16 @ Ilves D 1-164.0 1532 1515 38.47% 23.97% 37.55%+0.02 -0.1 10
2025-10-18 AC Oulu W 2-037.0 1199 1204 39.18% 23.97% 36.85%+0.05 +27.2 11
2025-10-18 @ Mariehamn L 0-237.0 1204 1199 36.85% 23.97% 39.18%-0.05 -27.2 9
2025-10-18 Jaro L 1-345.4 1257 1207 46.85% 23.79% 29.36%+0.36 -28.6 6
2025-10-18 @ VPS W 3-145.4 1207 1257 29.36% 23.79% 46.85%-0.36 +28.6 9
2025-10-18 KTP L 1-246.8 1137 1123 41.93% 23.94% 34.13%+0.16 -15.1 1
2025-10-18 @ Haka W 2-146.8 1123 1137 34.13% 23.94% 41.93%-0.16 +15.0 7
2025-10-19 HJK W 3-150.7 1532 1487 46.21% 23.82% 29.97%+0.34 +20.1 13
2025-10-19 @ KuPS L 1-350.7 1487 1532 29.97% 23.82% 46.21%-0.34 -20.1 3
2025-10-19 Inter Turku L 1-257.4 1516 1463 47.12% 23.78% 29.10%+0.37 -16.6 8
2025-10-19 @ Ilves W 2-157.4 1463 1516 29.10% 23.78% 47.12%-0.37 +16.6 7
2025-10-19 SJK Seinajoki L 3-449.4 1259 1459 16.96% 22.50% 60.53%-1.05 -6.6 3
2025-10-19 @ Gnistan W 4-349.4 1459 1259 60.53% 22.50% 16.96%+1.05 +6.6 10
2025-10-22 Gnistan W 2-139.7 1480 1252 65.35% 21.58% 13.08%+1.36 +5.6 10
2025-10-22 @ Inter Turku L 1-239.7 1252 1480 13.08% 21.58% 65.35%-1.36 -5.6 3
2025-10-22 SJK Seinajoki L 3-462.2 1467 1465 40.19% 23.96% 35.85%+0.09 -13.5 3
2025-10-22 @ HJK W 4-362.2 1465 1467 35.85% 23.96% 40.19%-0.09 +13.5 13
2025-10-25 Ilves L 1-336.9 1247 1499 13.23% 21.62% 65.15%-1.35 -9.8 3
2025-10-25 @ Gnistan W 3-136.9 1499 1247 65.15% 21.62% 13.23%+1.35 +9.8 11
2025-10-26 Inter Turku D 1-159.9 1453 1485 35.45% 23.96% 40.59%-0.10 +0.4 4
2025-10-26 @ HJK D 1-159.9 1485 1453 40.59% 23.96% 35.45%+0.10 -0.4 11
2025-10-27 KuPS L 0-149.4 1479 1552 29.89% 23.82% 46.30%-0.34 -12.3 13
2025-10-27 @ SJK Seinajoki W 1-049.4 1552 1479 46.30% 23.82% 29.89%+0.34 +12.3 16
2025-10-30 Gnistan D 1-157.2 1565 1237 72.45% 19.47% 8.08%+1.93 -5.8 17
2025-10-30 @ KuPS D 1-157.2 1237 1565 8.08% 19.47% 72.45%-1.93 +5.8 4
2025-10-30 HJK W 3-148.2 1509 1454 47.45% 23.77% 28.79%+0.39 +19.4 14
2025-10-30 @ Ilves L 1-348.2 1454 1509 28.79% 23.77% 47.45%-0.39 -19.4 4
2025-10-30 SJK Seinajoki D 2-265.7 1485 1466 42.53% 23.93% 33.54%+0.18 -0.5 12
2025-10-30 @ Inter Turku D 2-265.7 1466 1485 33.54% 23.93% 42.53%-0.18 +0.5 14
2025-11-02 Inter Turku W 3-258.7 1559 1484 49.92% 23.63% 26.45%+0.50 +9.9 20
2025-11-02 @ KuPS L 2-358.7 1484 1559 26.45% 23.63% 49.92%-0.50 -9.9 12
2025-11-03 HJK D 2-259.6 1243 1434 17.63% 22.63% 59.74%-1.00 +2.7 5
2025-11-03 @ Gnistan D 2-259.6 1434 1243 59.74% 22.63% 17.63%+1.00 -2.7 5
2025-11-03 SJK Seinajoki D 3-371.8 1528 1467 48.23% 23.73% 28.05%+0.42 -1.0 15
2025-11-03 @ Ilves D 3-371.8 1467 1528 28.05% 23.73% 48.23%-0.42 +1.0 15
2025-11-09 Gnistan W 3-028.7 1468 1245 64.97% 21.66% 13.37%+1.34 +16.5 18
2025-11-09 @ SJK Seinajoki L 0-328.7 1245 1468 13.37% 21.66% 64.97%-1.34 -16.5 5
2025-11-09 Ilves W 2-048.8 1474 1527 32.59% 23.91% 43.51%-0.22 +31.0 15
2025-11-09 @ Inter Turku L 0-248.8 1527 1474 43.51% 23.91% 32.59%+0.22 -31.0 15
2025-11-09 KuPS L 0-242.3 1432 1569 22.63% 23.31% 54.06%-0.70 -18.4 5
2025-11-09 @ HJK W 2-042.3 1569 1432 54.06% 23.31% 22.63%+0.70 +18.4 23

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2025-10-23 KTP W 3-030.0 1252 1138 54.45% 23.27% 22.28%+0.72 +26.3 1-0
2025-10-23 @ TPS Turku L 0-330.0 1138 1252 22.28% 23.27% 54.45%-0.72 -26.3 0-1
2025-10-26 TPS Turku L 2-345.2 1112 1278 19.86% 22.98% 57.16%-0.86 -7.8 0-2
2025-10-26 @ KTP W 3-245.2 1278 1112 57.16% 22.98% 19.86%+0.86 +7.8 2-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-10-03 10.55% Gnistan 1237 3 @ HJK 1509 2
2 2025-04-27 11.46% @ Mariehamn 1200 3 Ilves 1483 2
3 2025-07-02 12.79% Jaro 1203 3 @ HJK 1435 2
4 2025-06-28 15.75% @ AC Oulu 1164 2 VPS 1380 1
5 2025-06-18 16.20% SJK Seinajoki 1331 3 @ Ilves 1514 2
6 2025-06-18 16.29% @ Mariehamn 1166 1 KuPS 1375 0
7 2025-05-02 20.75% @ VPS 1304 1 Ilves 1461 0
8 2025-09-27 21.38% KTP 1084 2 @ AC Oulu 1206 0
9 2025-04-22 21.67% Gnistan 1252 1 @ HJK 1371 0
10 2025-07-02 22.35% Haka 1246 2 @ VPS 1359 1
11 2025-06-27 22.65% @ KuPS 1352 3 HJK 1489 0
12 2025-09-21 22.66% @ Mariehamn 1167 2 VPS 1304 1
13 2025-05-25 22.91% VPS 1337 2 @ KuPS 1444 0
14 2025-08-31 23.47% Jaro 1197 2 @ Gnistan 1299 1
15 2025-04-12 23.61% Mariehamn 1205 1 @ Haka 1305 0
16 2025-10-04 23.76% @ AC Oulu 1168 2 VPS 1294 0
17 2025-05-31 25.08% @ Haka 1260 2 VPS 1374 1
18 2025-09-27 26.67% @ SJK Seinajoki 1424 2 Inter Turku 1525 1
19 2025-08-17 26.97% @ KuPS 1442 2 Inter Turku 1540 1
20 2025-08-11 27.05% @ HJK 1428 5 Ilves 1525 1
21 2025-05-02 27.51% AC Oulu 1187 3 @ KTP 1252 1
22 2025-10-04 27.79% @ SJK Seinajoki 1442 2 Ilves 1532 1
23 2025-07-26 27.80% KTP 1168 3 @ Haka 1231 2
24 2025-05-02 27.90% Jaro 1236 1 @ Haka 1298 0
25 2025-10-19 29.10% Inter Turku 1463 2 @ Ilves 1516 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-08-11 54.47 @ HJK 5 1428 27.05% Ilves 1 1525 49.28% 23.67%
2 2025-06-27 54.31 @ KuPS 3 1352 22.65% HJK 0 1489 54.03% 23.31%
3 2025-05-21 46.85 @ Ilves 3 1422 30.53% KuPS 0 1491 45.63% 23.84%
4 2025-10-05 44.33 KuPS 3 1488 33.42% @ Inter Turku 0 1507 42.65% 23.93%
5 2025-08-16 39.88 @ Mariehamn 3 1145 38.78% KTP 0 1153 37.25% 23.97%
6 2025-09-27 38.28 KTP 2 1084 21.38% @ AC Oulu 0 1206 55.44% 23.17%
7 2025-04-19 37.91 Ilves 5 1445 57.45% @ KTP 0 1276 19.60% 22.94%
8 2025-05-25 37.22 VPS 2 1337 22.91% @ KuPS 0 1444 53.76% 23.34%
9 2025-10-04 36.64 @ AC Oulu 2 1168 23.76% VPS 0 1294 52.82% 23.42%
10 2025-06-14 33.87 Ilves 3 1480 45.96% @ KuPS 0 1409 30.21% 23.83%
11 2025-08-18 32.11 SJK Seinajoki 4 1397 56.34% @ Jaro 0 1239 20.59% 23.08%
12 2025-04-12 31.46 @ Inter Turku 3 1348 48.72% Gnistan 0 1283 27.58% 23.70%
13 2025-11-09 31.02 @ Inter Turku 2 1474 32.59% Ilves 0 1527 43.51% 23.91%
14 2025-08-04 30.89 Inter Turku 4 1506 42.70% @ HJK 1 1459 33.37% 23.93%
15 2025-05-02 29.58 AC Oulu 3 1187 27.51% @ KTP 1 1252 48.80% 23.70%
16 2025-04-05 28.78 Jaro 2 1236 36.42% @ Mariehamn 0 1234 39.61% 23.97%
17 2025-10-18 28.57 Jaro 3 1207 29.36% @ VPS 1 1257 46.85% 23.79%
18 2025-05-11 28.47 HJK 3 1374 52.07% @ Jaro 0 1254 24.45% 23.48%
19 2025-09-27 27.35 KuPS 4 1461 60.25% @ Gnistan 0 1264 17.20% 22.55%
20 2025-10-18 27.23 @ Mariehamn 2 1199 39.18% AC Oulu 0 1204 36.85% 23.97%
21 2025-04-19 26.81 Inter Turku 2 1380 39.93% @ VPS 0 1353 36.10% 23.97%
22 2025-10-23 * 26.32 @ TPS Turku 3 1252 54.45% KTP 0 1138 22.28% 23.27%
23 2025-06-14 26.14 VPS 5 1356 56.95% @ Mariehamn 1 1192 20.04% 23.00%
24 2025-07-13 25.80 @ Gnistan 2 1270 41.70% Haka 0 1258 34.36% 23.94%
25 2025-05-17 25.14 @ Inter Turku 3 1419 35.98% Ilves 1 1447 40.05% 23.97%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-11-03 71.8 @ Ilves 3 1528 48.23% SJK Seinajoki 3 1467 28.05% 23.73%
2 2025-09-13 69.9 @ SJK Seinajoki 3 1436 29.97% HJK 3 1509 46.21% 23.82%
3 2025-09-29 69.1 @ HJK 2 1509 36.57% Ilves 2 1533 39.46% 23.97%
4 2025-10-30 65.7 @ Inter Turku 2 1485 42.53% SJK Seinajoki 2 1466 33.54% 23.93%
5 2025-10-16 64.0 @ Ilves 1 1515 37.55% KuPS 1 1532 38.47% 23.97%
6 2025-10-22 62.2 SJK Seinajoki 4 1465 35.85% @ HJK 3 1467 40.19% 23.96%
7 2025-06-18 62.0 SJK Seinajoki 3 1331 16.20% @ Ilves 2 1514 61.45% 22.35%
8 2025-08-04 62.0 @ Ilves 2 1529 68.14% Gnistan 2 1265 10.99% 20.87%
9 2025-10-03 61.5 Gnistan 3 1237 10.55% @ HJK 2 1509 68.76% 20.69%
10 2025-06-27 61.0 @ Gnistan 2 1294 18.20% Inter Turku 2 1479 59.08% 22.73%
11 2025-04-27 60.4 @ Mariehamn 3 1200 11.46% Ilves 2 1483 67.50% 21.04%
12 2025-07-18 60.0 @ KTP 2 1164 9.48% Inter Turku 2 1486 70.31% 20.21%
13 2025-10-26 59.9 @ HJK 1 1453 35.45% Inter Turku 1 1485 40.59% 23.96%
14 2025-09-23 59.6 @ Inter Turku 0 1525 42.41% HJK 0 1508 33.66% 23.93%
15 2025-11-03 59.6 @ Gnistan 2 1243 17.63% HJK 2 1434 59.74% 22.63%
16 2025-07-02 59.5 Jaro 3 1203 12.79% @ HJK 2 1435 65.72% 21.49%
17 2025-07-04 59.3 @ AC Oulu 2 1186 13.66% KuPS 2 1431 64.60% 21.74%
18 2025-04-28 59.2 @ SJK Seinajoki 2 1370 49.76% Haka 2 1297 26.59% 23.64%
19 2025-05-10 59.2 @ Mariehamn 2 1199 15.14% Inter Turku 2 1422 62.74% 22.12%
20 2025-04-11 58.8 @ KTP 2 1275 29.26% VPS 2 1354 46.95% 23.79%
21 2025-05-16 58.8 @ Gnistan 2 1299 33.69% SJK Seinajoki 2 1343 42.38% 23.93%
22 2025-08-31 58.7 @ SJK Seinajoki 1 1435 35.20% KuPS 1 1469 40.85% 23.96%
23 2025-11-02 58.7 @ KuPS 3 1559 49.92% Inter Turku 2 1484 26.45% 23.63%
24 2025-07-05 58.5 @ SJK Seinajoki 1 1370 21.21% Ilves 1 1521 55.64% 23.15%
25 2025-05-31 58.2 @ AC Oulu 2 1195 24.39% SJK Seinajoki 2 1316 52.13% 23.48%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-06-19 26.8 @ Inter Turku 5 1458 68.95% KTP 0 1183 10.42% 20.63%
2 2025-08-16 26.8 Ilves 4 1471 67.46% @ AC Oulu 0 1189 11.49% 21.05%
3 2025-06-14 27.2 HJK 4 1458 65.81% @ AC Oulu 0 1197 12.72% 21.47%
4 2025-05-10 28.0 @ KuPS 3 1464 66.43% KTP 0 1223 12.25% 21.32%
5 2025-05-24 28.3 HJK 4 1434 62.14% @ Mariehamn 0 1217 15.63% 22.23%
6 2025-08-03 28.4 @ SJK Seinajoki 3 1366 61.49% KTP 0 1184 16.17% 22.35%
7 2025-11-09 28.7 @ SJK Seinajoki 3 1468 64.97% Gnistan 0 1245 13.37% 21.66%
8 2025-08-09 29.5 KuPS 2 1431 66.35% @ KTP 0 1164 12.31% 21.34%
9 2025-06-28 29.7 Ilves 4 1494 62.66% @ Haka 0 1271 15.21% 22.14%
10 2025-09-27 29.7 KuPS 4 1461 60.25% @ Gnistan 0 1264 17.20% 22.55%
11 2025-08-18 29.9 SJK Seinajoki 4 1397 56.34% @ Jaro 0 1239 20.59% 23.08%
12 2025-08-31 29.9 HJK 4 1502 74.77% @ KTP 1 1107 6.68% 18.54%
13 2025-10-23 * 30.0 @ TPS Turku 3 1252 54.45% KTP 0 1138 22.28% 23.27%
14 2025-08-24 30.7 @ HJK 8 1487 70.82% Mariehamn 2 1185 9.14% 20.05%
15 2025-04-19 31.1 Ilves 5 1445 57.45% @ KTP 0 1276 19.60% 22.94%
16 2025-05-11 31.7 HJK 3 1374 52.07% @ Jaro 0 1254 24.45% 23.48%
17 2025-04-12 32.7 @ Inter Turku 3 1348 48.72% Gnistan 0 1283 27.58% 23.70%
18 2025-09-13 33.0 Inter Turku 2 1513 63.46% @ Gnistan 0 1281 14.56% 21.98%
19 2025-04-23 33.3 @ KuPS 4 1431 64.43% Mariehamn 1 1215 13.79% 21.78%
20 2025-06-14 33.5 VPS 5 1356 56.95% @ Mariehamn 1 1192 20.04% 23.00%
21 2025-05-17 33.6 @ HJK 4 1402 62.59% KTP 1 1208 15.26% 22.15%
22 2025-07-20 33.7 Ilves 1 1524 69.45% @ Jaro 0 1215 10.07% 20.48%
23 2025-04-26 34.1 Inter Turku 4 1407 60.82% @ AC Oulu 1 1204 16.72% 22.46%
24 2025-06-28 34.1 @ SJK Seinajoki 4 1351 59.63% Mariehamn 1 1189 17.73% 22.64%
25 2025-06-01 34.2 Ilves 2 1463 57.11% @ Gnistan 0 1298 19.90% 22.98%