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2024 Ykkösliiga Season

150 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

JIPPO

17.54 points above expected

52 points · 34.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

SJK Akatemia

11.98 points below expected

29 points · 40.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KTP 27 18 4 5 58 75 32 +43 47.62 +10.38
2 Jaro 27 17 3 7 54 51 30 +21 44.09 +9.91
3 JIPPO 27 16 4 7 52 49 25 +24 34.46 +17.54
4 TPS Turku 27 12 7 8 43 40 29 +11 43.54 -0.54
5 JaPS 27 9 8 10 35 44 53 -9 33.68 +1.32
6 PK-35 Vantaa 27 8 9 10 33 29 34 -5 32.56 +0.44
7 SJK Akatemia 27 6 11 10 29 35 41 -6 40.98 -11.98
8 SalPa 27 7 8 12 29 31 48 -17 36.92 -7.92
9 KaPa 27 5 7 15 22 44 67 -23 31.65 -9.65
10 MP Mikkeli 27 3 7 17 16 22 61 -39 25.77 -9.77
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Turku 5 3 1 1 10 8 5 +3 50.53 -40.53
2 AC Oulu 5 2 1 2 7 6 4 +2 33.49 -26.49
3 Gnistan 5 2 1 2 7 8 9 -1 46.58 -39.58
4 Mariehamn 5 2 0 3 6 7 6 +1 32.03 -26.03
5 Ekenas 5 1 3 1 6 5 6 -1 23.37 -17.37
6 Lahti 5 1 2 2 5 5 9 -4 30.67 -25.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 JIPPO 52 34.46 +17.54
2 KTP 58 47.62 +10.38
3 Jaro 54 44.09 +9.91
4 JaPS 35 33.68 +1.32
5 PK-35 Vantaa 33 32.56 +0.44

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 SJK Akatemia 29 40.98 -11.98
2 MP Mikkeli 16 25.77 -9.77
3 KaPa 22 31.65 -9.65
4 SalPa 29 36.92 -7.92
5 TPS Turku 43 43.54 -0.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 JaPS 4 Aug 30 – Sep 27 1 in 238
2 KTP 6 Apr 24 – May 27 1 in 214
3 JIPPO 5 Jul 6 – Jul 27 1 in 207
4 MP Mikkeli 2 Aug 10 – Aug 18 1 in 50
5 Jaro 4 Jun 19 – Jul 14 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 JIPPO 3 Aug 10 – Aug 25 1 in 156
2 SalPa 5 Sep 14 – Oct 19 1 in 82
3 SJK Akatemia 3 Apr 20 – Apr 29 1 in 53
4 KaPa 5 Jul 17 – Aug 17 1 in 28
5 PK-35 Vantaa 3 Jun 29 – Jul 13 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 JIPPO 9 Apr 13 – Jun 2 1 in 192
2 KTP 11 Apr 24 – Jul 5 1 in 51
3 JaPS 5 Aug 24 – Sep 27 1 in 29
4 SJK Akatemia 7 Jul 20 – Aug 31 1 in 21
5 PK-35 Vantaa 5 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MP Mikkeli 12 Apr 13 – Jun 30 1 in 101
2 JaPS 10 Jun 28 – Aug 24 1 in 74
3 SJK Akatemia 8 Aug 19 – Oct 19 1 in 63
4 SalPa 8 May 4 – Jun 19 1 in 53
5 TPS Turku 5 Aug 24 – Sep 27 1 in 49

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KTP 1325 58 +23 10 10.4 -0.4
Jaro 1242 54 +10 12 8.2 +3.8
JIPPO 1228 52 +62 12 6.7 +5.3
TPS Turku 1232 43 +0 5 8.0 -3.0
JaPS 1127 35 +27 12 5.4 +6.6
PK-35 Vantaa 1117 33 +7 8 6.8 +1.2
SJK Akatemia 1156 29 -36 2 7.8 -5.8
SalPa 1077 29 -83 0 5.9 -5.9
KaPa 1066 22 +13 7 6.1 +0.9
MP Mikkeli 984 16 -22 2 3.7 -1.7
Inter Turku 1416 10 +3 10 9.9 +0.1
AC Oulu 1255 7 +13 7 6.8 +0.2
Gnistan 1322 7 -14 7 8.4 -1.4
Ekenas 1194 6 +2 6 5.1 +0.9
Mariehamn 1239 6 +13 6 5.5 +0.5
Lahti 1207 5 -17 5 5.6 -0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team JIP JAP JAR KTP KAP MM PV SA SAL TT
JIPPO —
3-0-0
3.89
1-0-2
2.83
2-0-1
3.00
2-0-1
4.31
0-2-1
5.12
2-0-1
5.11
2-1-0
4.11
2-1-0
3.93
2-0-1
3.22
JaPS
0-0-3
4.34
—
0-2-1
2.73
1-1-1
2.55
1-2-0
4.21
2-1-0
5.05
1-1-1
3.93
1-1-1
3.54
1-0-2
4.07
2-0-1
2.96
Jaro
2-0-1
5.43
1-2-0
5.53
—
1-0-2
3.80
3-0-0
5.36
2-0-1
5.96
2-0-1
5.28
2-1-0
3.85
3-0-0
5.04
1-0-2
3.97
KTP
1-0-2
5.26
1-1-1
5.74
2-0-1
4.43
—
3-0-0
6.22
3-0-0
5.74
3-0-0
5.64
2-1-0
4.69
2-1-0
5.07
1-1-1
4.86
KaPa
1-0-2
3.92
0-2-1
4.02
0-0-3
2.91
0-0-3
2.11
—
3-0-0
4.92
0-1-2
4.46
0-1-2
3.12
1-2-0
3.43
0-1-2
2.55
MP Mikkeli
1-2-0
3.20
0-1-2
3.21
1-0-2
2.36
0-0-3
2.57
0-0-3
3.31
—
1-1-1
3.15
0-2-1
2.25
0-0-3
3.29
0-1-2
2.80
PK-35 Vantaa
1-0-2
3.14
1-1-1
4.30
1-0-2
2.97
0-0-3
2.68
2-1-0
3.77
1-1-1
5.13
—
0-2-1
3.28
1-2-0
3.70
1-2-0
2.91
SJK Akatemia
0-1-2
4.13
1-1-1
4.70
0-1-2
4.39
0-1-2
3.55
2-1-0
5.14
1-2-0
6.06
1-2-0
4.96
—
1-1-1
3.95
0-1-2
4.01
SalPa
0-1-2
4.34
2-0-1
4.16
0-0-3
3.21
0-1-2
3.17
0-2-1
4.82
3-0-0
4.94
0-2-1
4.53
1-1-1
4.28
—
1-1-1
3.55
TPS Turku
1-0-2
5.02
1-0-2
5.30
2-0-1
4.27
1-1-1
3.40
2-1-0
5.74
2-1-0
5.45
0-2-1
5.37
2-1-0
4.23
1-1-1
4.69
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +7.7
Allowed 0.70 -8.1
Differential 0.96 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.33%7.00%3.67%4.33%1.67%1.33%25.33%
17.00%12.00%8.33%1.33%2.33%1.33%32.33%
23.67%8.33%4.67%3.00%1.00%1.33%22.00%
34.33%1.33%3.00%1.33%—0.67%10.67%
41.67%2.33%1.00%———5.00%
5+1.33%1.33%1.33%0.67%——4.67%
Total25.33%32.33%22.00%10.67%5.00%4.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.05
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 150

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%3.70%———18.52%
111.11%7.41%11.11%———29.63%
214.81%3.70%——3.70%—22.22%
37.41%—7.41%———14.81%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total40.74%33.33%22.22%—3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.93 +0.89
SD 1.42 1.00 1.69
CV 0.78 1.08 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—7.41%—3.70%3.70%25.93%
1—7.41%3.70%—7.41%3.70%22.22%
2—11.11%7.41%7.41%——25.93%
33.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%——18.52%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———3.70%——3.70%
Total18.52%25.93%22.22%14.81%11.11%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.96 -0.33
SD 1.36 1.53 2.18
CV 0.84 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%——18.52%
114.81%3.70%7.41%———25.93%
27.41%11.11%3.70%—3.70%—25.93%
37.41%—7.41%———14.81%
4—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
5+3.70%—3.70%———7.41%
Total37.04%25.93%29.63%3.70%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.11 +0.78
SD 1.48 1.09 1.83
CV 0.78 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%————7.41%
17.41%3.70%7.41%———18.52%
23.70%18.52%3.70%3.70%—3.70%33.33%
33.70%——3.70%——7.41%
43.70%3.70%————7.41%
5+7.41%11.11%7.41%———25.93%
Total29.63%40.74%18.52%7.41%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.19 +1.59
SD 1.89 1.18 2.26
CV 0.68 0.99 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%7.41%7.41%3.70%—25.93%
1—14.81%7.41%—3.70%3.70%29.63%
2—3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%18.52%
3——3.70%3.70%—7.41%14.81%
43.70%3.70%————7.41%
5+——3.70%———3.70%
Total7.41%25.93%25.93%14.81%11.11%14.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 2.48 -0.85
SD 1.52 1.72 2.25
CV 0.93 0.69 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%11.11%3.70%7.41%11.11%7.41%55.56%
1—7.41%11.11%—3.70%—22.22%
2—3.70%3.70%3.70%—3.70%14.81%
3———————
4——7.41%———7.41%
5+———————
Total14.81%22.22%25.93%11.11%14.81%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 2.26 -1.44
SD 1.18 1.68 2.01
CV 1.45 0.74 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%11.11%3.70%3.70%——25.93%
114.81%18.52%11.11%3.70%—3.70%51.85%
2—7.41%7.41%———14.81%
33.70%—————3.70%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total25.93%40.74%22.22%7.41%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.26 -0.19
SD 0.96 1.16 1.55
CV 0.89 0.92 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%—7.41%——22.22%
1—22.22%11.11%—3.70%3.70%40.74%
27.41%7.41%7.41%3.70%——25.93%
33.70%——3.70%——7.41%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total22.22%37.04%18.52%14.81%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.52 -0.22
SD 1.03 1.31 1.78
CV 0.80 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%3.70%11.11%—3.70%33.33%
13.70%22.22%3.70%3.70%3.70%—37.04%
23.70%7.41%3.70%——3.70%18.52%
3——7.41%———7.41%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total14.81%40.74%18.52%14.81%3.70%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.78 -0.63
SD 1.20 1.50 2.11
CV 1.04 0.84 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%3.70%7.41%———22.22%
114.81%11.11%7.41%—3.70%—37.04%
23.70%7.41%3.70%7.41%——22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———3.70%——3.70%
Total44.44%22.22%18.52%11.11%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.07 +0.41
SD 1.28 1.21 1.69
CV 0.87 1.12 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KTP 1325 58 47.62 +10.38 93.0% 31 38 43 47 51 60 67
Jaro 1245 54 44.09 +9.91 94.0% 20 32 40 44 48 55 63
TPS Turku 1232 43 43.54 -0.54 56.0% 29 32 39 43 49 55 59
JIPPO 1228 52 34.46 +17.54 100.0% 18 22 30 34 39 46 50
SJK Akatemia 1156 29 40.98 -11.98 6.0% 26 29 36 41 46 51 59
JaPS 1127 35 33.68 +1.32 64.0% 15 24 29 33 38 44 50
PK-35 Vantaa 1117 33 32.56 +0.44 57.0% 17 21 27 32 37 43 46
SalPa 1077 29 36.92 -7.92 13.0% 22 26 33 37 41 47 51
KaPa 1066 22 31.65 -9.65 9.0% 21 22 27 32 36 41 47
MP Mikkeli 984 16 25.77 -9.77 10.0% 11 15 22 26 30 36 42

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.00%
Slight Edge
43.33%25.33%31.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 41.89 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
44%
KTP, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.15/gm
Comfortable
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.29 * Some Luck: 5.29 to 7.94 * Lucky: 7.94 to 10.59 * Wild Swing: 10.59 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.35 * Close: 1.35 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
9.54 points
Lucky
06.6217
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.684
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
JIPPO
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.00%
SJK Akatemia
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 101.86
2.07
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
70%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Clear Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.07
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.63
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.61
Overconfident
0.4867331.001.51327
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.072
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KTP44.00%22.00%16.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%——
Jaro21.00%18.00%22.00%18.00%6.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%
JIPPO2.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%18.00%11.00%14.00%16.00%8.00%11.00%
TPS Turku19.00%24.00%15.00%16.00%10.00%5.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%—
JaPS1.00%3.00%7.00%6.00%8.00%21.00%16.00%17.00%13.00%8.00%
PK-35 Vantaa2.00%2.00%7.00%7.00%10.00%13.00%9.00%22.00%15.00%13.00%
SJK Akatemia9.00%17.00%18.00%18.00%9.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%
SalPa2.00%8.00%6.00%13.00%22.00%13.00%13.00%8.00%13.00%2.00%
KaPa—1.00%4.00%2.00%11.00%12.00%21.00%13.00%24.00%12.00%
MP Mikkeli———1.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%13.00%21.00%51.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
KTP 48.00% 18.00% 34.00% — —
Jaro 24.00% 15.00% 59.00% 1.00% 1.00%
TPS Turku 20.00% 23.00% 56.00% 1.00% —
SalPa 3.00% 7.00% 75.00% 13.00% 2.00%
SJK Akatemia — — 98.00% — 2.00%
JaPS 1.00% 3.00% 75.00% 13.00% 8.00%
JIPPO 2.00% 5.00% 74.00% 8.00% 11.00%
PK-35 Vantaa 2.00% 2.00% 68.00% 15.00% 13.00%
KaPa — 1.00% 63.00% 24.00% 12.00%
MP Mikkeli — — 28.00% 21.00% 51.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-04-13 JaPS W 2-141.1 1238 1155 55.89% 24.19% 19.91%+0.60 +5.3 3
2024-04-13 @ SJK Akatemia L 1-241.1 1155 1238 19.91% 24.19% 55.89%-0.60 -5.3 0
2024-04-13 Jaro L 0-242.9 1198 1153 51.42% 25.01% 23.57%+0.42 -22.7 0
2024-04-13 @ TPS Turku W 2-042.9 1153 1198 23.57% 25.01% 51.42%-0.42 +22.7 3
2024-04-13 JIPPO L 0-343.8 1199 1018 65.71% 21.32% 12.97%+1.07 -40.7 0
2024-04-13 @ SalPa W 3-043.8 1018 1199 12.97% 21.32% 65.71%-1.07 +40.7 3
2024-04-13 KaPa W 3-035.9 1123 1170 39.33% 26.02% 34.65%-0.02 +24.2 3
2024-04-13 @ PK-35 Vantaa L 0-335.9 1170 1123 34.65% 26.02% 39.33%+0.02 -24.2 0
2024-04-13 MP Mikkeli W 4-035.7 1120 1181 37.34% 26.04% 36.62%-0.09 +32.9 3
2024-04-13 @ KTP L 0-435.7 1181 1120 36.62% 26.04% 37.34%+0.09 -32.9 0
2024-04-19 SalPa D 1-152.1 1146 1158 44.06% 25.81% 30.13%+0.14 -0.7 1
2024-04-19 @ KaPa D 1-152.1 1158 1146 30.13% 25.81% 44.06%-0.14 +0.7 1
2024-04-20 Jaro L 0-146.8 1243 1175 54.12% 24.55% 21.33%+0.53 -12.6 3
2024-04-20 @ SJK Akatemia W 1-046.8 1175 1243 21.33% 24.55% 54.12%-0.53 +12.6 6
2024-04-20 KTP W 1-043.2 1059 1153 32.68% 25.95% 41.37%-0.25 +10.1 6
2024-04-20 @ JIPPO L 0-143.2 1153 1059 41.37% 25.95% 32.68%+0.25 -10.1 3
2024-04-20 MP Mikkeli W 1-038.3 1175 1148 49.21% 25.32% 25.47%+0.33 +6.9 3
2024-04-20 @ TPS Turku L 0-138.3 1148 1175 25.47% 25.32% 49.21%-0.33 -6.9 0
2024-04-20 PK-35 Vantaa W 3-141.2 1149 1148 45.95% 25.66% 28.38%+0.21 +12.3 3
2024-04-20 @ JaPS L 1-341.2 1148 1149 28.38% 25.66% 45.95%-0.21 -12.3 3
2024-04-24 JIPPO D 1-152.4 1141 1069 54.60% 24.46% 20.95%+0.55 -1.8 1
2024-04-24 @ MP Mikkeli D 1-152.4 1069 1141 20.95% 24.46% 54.60%-0.55 +1.8 7
2024-04-24 KaPa W 4-243.8 1188 1145 51.17% 25.05% 23.78%+0.41 +9.5 9
2024-04-24 @ Jaro L 2-443.8 1145 1188 23.78% 25.05% 51.17%-0.41 -9.5 1
2024-04-24 SalPa L 2-354.1 1162 1159 46.07% 25.65% 28.28%+0.21 -9.8 3
2024-04-24 @ JaPS W 3-254.1 1159 1162 28.28% 25.65% 46.07%-0.21 +9.8 4
2024-04-24 SJK Akatemia W 5-141.0 1143 1231 33.56% 25.99% 40.46%-0.22 +29.6 6
2024-04-24 @ KTP L 1-541.0 1231 1143 40.46% 25.99% 33.56%+0.22 -29.6 3
2024-04-24 TPS Turku D 1-152.0 1135 1182 39.35% 26.02% 34.64%-0.02 -0.2 4
2024-04-24 @ PK-35 Vantaa D 1-152.0 1182 1135 34.64% 26.02% 39.35%+0.02 +0.2 4
2024-04-28 JaPS D 3-361.2 1136 1152 43.56% 25.84% 30.60%+0.12 -0.4 2
2024-04-28 @ KaPa D 3-361.2 1152 1136 30.60% 25.84% 43.56%-0.12 +0.4 4
2024-04-28 Jaro W 2-041.4 1071 1198 28.53% 25.68% 45.79%-0.41 +20.6 10
2024-04-28 @ JIPPO L 0-241.4 1198 1071 45.79% 25.68% 28.53%+0.41 -20.6 9
2024-04-28 KTP L 1-540.9 1135 1173 40.61% 25.98% 33.41%+0.02 -29.7 4
2024-04-28 @ PK-35 Vantaa W 5-140.9 1173 1135 33.41% 25.98% 40.61%-0.02 +29.7 9
2024-04-28 MP Mikkeli W 5-032.2 1169 1139 49.55% 25.28% 25.18%+0.34 +30.2 7
2024-04-28 @ SalPa L 0-532.2 1139 1169 25.18% 25.28% 49.55%-0.34 -30.2 1
2024-04-29 TPS Turku L 0-339.9 1201 1182 48.19% 25.44% 26.37%+0.29 -31.3 3
2024-04-29 @ SJK Akatemia W 3-039.9 1182 1201 26.37% 25.44% 48.19%-0.29 +31.3 7
2024-05-03 JaPS W 2-034.4 1202 1152 52.03% 24.92% 23.05%+0.44 +12.0 12
2024-05-03 @ KTP L 0-234.4 1152 1202 23.05% 24.92% 52.03%-0.44 -12.0 4
2024-05-04 KaPa W 2-141.2 1213 1135 55.30% 24.32% 20.39%+0.58 +5.4 10
2024-05-04 @ TPS Turku L 1-241.2 1135 1213 20.39% 24.32% 55.30%-0.58 -5.4 2
2024-05-04 SalPa W 2-145.0 1177 1199 42.74% 25.89% 31.37%+0.10 +7.7 12
2024-05-04 @ Jaro L 1-245.0 1199 1177 31.37% 25.89% 42.74%-0.10 -7.7 7
2024-05-04 SJK Akatemia D 0-048.1 1091 1170 34.84% 26.02% 39.14%-0.18 +0.2 11
2024-05-04 @ JIPPO D 0-048.1 1170 1091 39.14% 26.02% 34.84%+0.18 -0.2 4
2024-05-05 PK-35 Vantaa D 0-048.2 1109 1105 46.20% 25.64% 28.16%+0.22 -1.0 2
2024-05-05 @ MP Mikkeli D 0-048.2 1105 1109 28.16% 25.64% 46.20%-0.22 +1.0 5
2024-05-12 JIPPO L 1-543.9 1140 1092 51.85% 24.94% 23.20%+0.44 -36.2 4
2024-05-12 @ JaPS W 5-143.9 1092 1140 23.20% 24.94% 51.85%-0.44 +36.2 14
2024-05-12 MP Mikkeli W 4-032.3 1130 1108 48.57% 25.40% 26.04%+0.31 +25.2 5
2024-05-12 @ KaPa L 0-432.3 1108 1130 26.04% 25.40% 48.57%-0.31 -25.2 2
2024-05-12 SJK Akatemia D 1-152.0 1106 1169 36.98% 26.04% 36.98%-0.10 +0.0 6
2024-05-12 @ PK-35 Vantaa D 1-152.0 1169 1106 36.98% 26.04% 36.98%+0.10 +0.0 5
2024-05-12 TPS Turku L 0-143.6 1191 1219 42.04% 25.92% 32.04%+0.07 -10.2 7
2024-05-12 @ SalPa W 1-043.6 1219 1191 32.04% 25.92% 42.04%-0.07 +10.2 13
2024-05-13 Jaro W 1-038.3 1214 1185 49.53% 25.28% 25.19%+0.34 +6.8 15
2024-05-13 @ KTP L 0-138.3 1185 1214 25.19% 25.28% 49.53%-0.34 -6.8 12
2024-05-18 KaPa W 2-037.3 1128 1155 42.06% 25.92% 32.02%+0.07 +15.7 17
2024-05-18 @ JIPPO L 0-237.3 1155 1128 32.02% 25.92% 42.06%-0.07 -15.7 5
2024-05-18 KTP L 1-444.5 1229 1221 46.75% 25.59% 27.66%+0.24 -25.7 13
2024-05-18 @ TPS Turku W 4-144.5 1221 1229 27.66% 25.59% 46.75%-0.24 +25.7 18
2024-05-19 JaPS L 0-338.3 1083 1104 42.87% 25.88% 31.25%+0.10 -28.4 2
2024-05-19 @ MP Mikkeli W 3-038.3 1104 1083 31.25% 25.88% 42.87%-0.10 +28.4 7
2024-05-19 PK-35 Vantaa W 2-141.4 1178 1106 54.54% 24.47% 20.99%+0.55 +5.5 15
2024-05-19 @ Jaro L 1-241.4 1106 1178 20.99% 24.47% 54.54%-0.55 -5.5 6
2024-05-19 SalPa W 2-036.8 1169 1181 44.17% 25.80% 30.03%+0.15 +14.9 8
2024-05-19 @ SJK Akatemia L 0-236.8 1181 1169 30.03% 25.80% 44.17%-0.15 -14.9 7
2024-05-22 TPS Turku W 2-147.0 1132 1203 35.90% 26.04% 38.07%-0.14 +8.9 10
2024-05-22 @ JaPS L 1-247.0 1203 1132 38.07% 26.04% 35.90%+0.14 -8.9 13
2024-05-23 Jaro L 1-438.7 1054 1183 28.26% 25.65% 46.09%-0.42 -17.4 2
2024-05-23 @ MP Mikkeli W 4-138.7 1183 1054 46.09% 25.65% 28.26%+0.42 +17.4 18
2024-05-23 PK-35 Vantaa W 1-037.7 1144 1101 51.16% 25.05% 23.79%+0.41 +6.5 20
2024-05-23 @ JIPPO L 0-137.7 1101 1144 23.79% 25.05% 51.16%-0.41 -6.5 6
2024-05-23 SJK Akatemia D 1-152.0 1139 1184 39.56% 26.01% 34.43%-0.01 -0.2 6
2024-05-23 @ KaPa D 1-152.0 1184 1139 34.43% 26.01% 39.56%+0.01 +0.2 9
2024-05-26 JaPS D 0-048.6 1201 1141 53.14% 24.73% 22.13%+0.49 -1.8 19
2024-05-26 @ Jaro D 0-048.6 1141 1201 22.13% 24.73% 53.14%-0.49 +1.8 11
2024-05-27 KaPa W 2-140.3 1247 1139 58.53% 23.57% 17.90%+0.72 +4.8 21
2024-05-27 @ KTP L 1-240.3 1139 1247 17.90% 23.57% 58.53%-0.72 -4.8 6
2024-05-27 SalPa D 1-152.0 1094 1166 35.73% 26.03% 38.24%-0.14 +0.1 7
2024-05-27 @ PK-35 Vantaa D 1-152.0 1166 1094 38.24% 26.03% 35.73%+0.14 -0.1 8
2024-05-28 MP Mikkeli D 0-049.2 1185 1037 62.60% 22.40% 15.00%+0.91 -2.9 10
2024-05-28 @ SJK Akatemia D 0-049.2 1037 1185 15.00% 22.40% 62.60%-0.91 +2.9 3
2024-05-31 PK-35 Vantaa L 0-145.8 1134 1094 50.81% 25.10% 24.08%+0.39 -11.9 6
2024-05-31 @ KaPa W 1-045.8 1094 1134 24.08% 25.10% 50.81%-0.39 +11.9 10
2024-06-02 SalPa D 1-152.1 1150 1166 43.58% 25.84% 30.57%+0.12 -0.6 21
2024-06-02 @ JIPPO D 1-152.1 1166 1150 30.57% 25.84% 43.58%-0.12 +0.6 9
2024-06-08 JIPPO W 2-034.6 1194 1149 51.40% 25.02% 23.59%+0.42 +12.2 16
2024-06-08 @ TPS Turku L 0-234.6 1149 1194 23.59% 25.02% 51.40%-0.42 -12.2 21
2024-06-08 KTP D 2-257.2 1167 1251 33.94% 26.00% 40.06%-0.21 +0.2 10
2024-06-08 @ SalPa D 2-257.2 1251 1167 40.06% 26.00% 33.94%+0.21 -0.2 22
2024-06-11 JaPS W 4-140.3 1106 1143 40.72% 25.98% 33.31%+0.02 +19.8 13
2024-06-11 @ PK-35 Vantaa L 1-440.3 1143 1106 33.31% 25.98% 40.72%-0.02 -19.8 11
2024-06-12 JIPPO W 2-140.1 1251 1137 59.21% 23.40% 17.40%+0.75 +4.6 25
2024-06-12 @ KTP L 1-240.1 1137 1251 17.40% 23.40% 59.21%-0.75 -4.6 21
2024-06-12 KaPa D 1-152.3 1167 1122 51.37% 25.02% 23.61%+0.42 -1.4 11
2024-06-12 @ SalPa D 1-152.3 1122 1167 23.61% 25.02% 51.37%-0.42 +1.4 7
2024-06-12 SJK Akatemia D 1-152.3 1199 1182 47.96% 25.47% 26.58%+0.28 -1.1 20
2024-06-12 @ Jaro D 1-152.3 1182 1199 26.58% 25.47% 47.96%-0.28 +1.1 11
2024-06-12 TPS Turku L 0-332.5 1040 1206 24.04% 25.09% 50.87%-0.60 -18.0 3
2024-06-12 @ MP Mikkeli W 3-032.5 1206 1040 50.87% 25.09% 24.04%+0.60 +18.0 19
2024-06-19 JaPS L 1-347.9 1166 1123 51.08% 25.06% 23.85%+0.40 -19.6 11
2024-06-19 @ SalPa W 3-147.9 1123 1166 23.85% 25.06% 51.08%-0.40 +19.6 14
2024-06-19 Jaro L 0-336.2 1124 1198 35.45% 26.03% 38.52%-0.15 -24.6 7
2024-06-19 @ KaPa W 3-036.2 1198 1124 38.52% 26.03% 35.45%+0.15 +24.6 23
2024-06-19 MP Mikkeli D 0-048.8 1133 1022 58.87% 23.48% 17.64%+0.74 -2.5 22
2024-06-19 @ JIPPO D 0-048.8 1022 1133 17.64% 23.48% 58.87%-0.74 +2.5 4
2024-06-19 PK-35 Vantaa D 2-257.8 1224 1126 57.54% 23.82% 18.64%+0.68 -1.5 20
2024-06-19 @ TPS Turku D 2-257.8 1126 1224 18.64% 23.82% 57.54%-0.68 +1.5 14
2024-06-20 KTP L 0-336.4 1183 1256 35.56% 26.03% 38.41%-0.15 -24.6 11
2024-06-20 @ SJK Akatemia W 3-036.4 1256 1183 38.41% 26.03% 35.56%+0.15 +24.7 28
2024-06-28 KaPa D 2-257.3 1143 1099 51.27% 25.04% 23.70%+0.41 -1.1 15
2024-06-28 @ JaPS D 2-257.3 1099 1143 23.70% 25.04% 51.27%-0.41 +1.1 8
2024-06-29 JIPPO W 1-036.0 1222 1130 56.88% 23.97% 19.15%+0.65 +5.4 26
2024-06-29 @ Jaro L 0-136.0 1130 1222 19.15% 23.97% 56.88%-0.65 -5.4 22
2024-06-29 PK-35 Vantaa W 1-034.2 1281 1128 63.10% 22.24% 14.66%+0.94 +4.1 31
2024-06-29 @ KTP L 0-134.2 1128 1281 14.66% 22.24% 63.10%-0.94 -4.2 14
2024-06-29 SJK Akatemia W 1-037.0 1223 1158 53.77% 24.62% 21.61%+0.51 +6.0 23
2024-06-29 @ TPS Turku L 0-137.0 1158 1223 21.61% 24.62% 53.77%-0.51 -6.0 11
2024-06-30 SalPa L 0-139.4 1024 1146 29.14% 25.73% 45.12%-0.38 -7.7 4
2024-06-30 @ MP Mikkeli W 1-039.4 1146 1024 45.12% 25.73% 29.14%+0.38 +7.7 14
2024-07-05 KTP D 0-048.5 1142 1285 26.64% 25.47% 47.89%-0.49 +1.2 16
2024-07-05 @ JaPS D 0-048.5 1285 1142 47.89% 25.47% 26.64%+0.49 -1.2 32
2024-07-06 Jaro L 0-141.6 1154 1228 35.42% 26.03% 38.55%-0.15 -9.0 14
2024-07-06 @ SalPa W 1-041.6 1228 1154 38.55% 26.03% 35.42%+0.15 +9.0 29
2024-07-06 JIPPO L 1-250.1 1152 1125 49.26% 25.31% 25.43%+0.33 -11.0 11
2024-07-06 @ SJK Akatemia W 2-150.1 1125 1152 25.43% 25.31% 49.26%-0.33 +11.0 25
2024-07-06 MP Mikkeli L 1-252.3 1124 1017 58.47% 23.59% 17.94%+0.72 -12.7 14
2024-07-06 @ PK-35 Vantaa W 2-152.3 1017 1124 17.94% 23.59% 58.47%-0.72 +12.7 7
2024-07-06 TPS Turku D 0-048.3 1100 1229 28.31% 25.66% 46.03%-0.42 +1.0 9
2024-07-06 @ KaPa D 0-048.3 1229 1100 46.03% 25.66% 28.31%+0.42 -1.0 24
2024-07-10 JaPS W 3-249.1 1136 1143 44.74% 25.76% 29.49%+0.17 +7.0 28
2024-07-10 @ JIPPO L 2-349.1 1143 1136 29.49% 25.76% 44.74%-0.17 -7.0 16
2024-07-11 KaPa L 2-641.6 1029 1101 35.70% 26.03% 38.27%-0.15 -22.8 7
2024-07-11 @ MP Mikkeli W 6-241.6 1101 1029 38.27% 26.03% 35.70%+0.15 +22.8 12
2024-07-13 PK-35 Vantaa W 3-032.8 1141 1111 49.63% 25.27% 25.11%+0.35 +18.7 14
2024-07-13 @ SJK Akatemia L 0-332.8 1111 1141 25.11% 25.27% 49.63%-0.35 -18.7 14
2024-07-13 SalPa L 2-356.6 1228 1145 55.88% 24.19% 19.92%+0.60 -11.6 24
2024-07-13 @ TPS Turku W 3-256.6 1145 1228 19.92% 24.19% 55.88%-0.60 +11.6 17
2024-07-14 KTP W 5-244.3 1237 1283 39.31% 26.02% 34.67%-0.02 +17.7 32
2024-07-14 @ Jaro L 2-544.3 1283 1237 34.67% 26.02% 39.31%+0.02 -17.7 32
2024-07-17 Jaro W 2-150.4 1092 1254 24.50% 25.17% 50.33%-0.58 +11.2 17
2024-07-17 @ PK-35 Vantaa L 1-250.4 1254 1092 50.33% 25.17% 24.50%+0.58 -11.2 32
2024-07-17 JIPPO L 1-443.3 1124 1143 43.24% 25.86% 30.90%+0.11 -24.1 12
2024-07-17 @ KaPa W 4-143.3 1143 1124 30.90% 25.86% 43.24%-0.11 +24.1 31
2024-07-17 MP Mikkeli D 1-152.9 1136 1006 60.82% 22.95% 16.23%+0.83 -2.4 17
2024-07-17 @ JaPS D 1-152.9 1006 1136 16.23% 22.95% 60.82%-0.83 +2.4 8
2024-07-17 SJK Akatemia W 2-144.2 1156 1160 45.24% 25.72% 29.03%+0.18 +7.2 20
2024-07-17 @ SalPa L 1-244.2 1160 1156 29.03% 25.72% 45.24%-0.18 -7.2 14
2024-07-17 TPS Turku L 1-251.1 1266 1216 51.97% 24.93% 23.10%+0.44 -11.5 32
2024-07-17 @ KTP W 2-151.1 1216 1266 23.10% 24.93% 51.97%-0.44 +11.5 27
2024-07-20 JaPS W 4-029.8 1228 1134 57.08% 23.93% 18.99%+0.65 +19.1 30
2024-07-20 @ TPS Turku L 0-429.8 1134 1228 18.99% 23.93% 57.08%-0.65 -19.1 17
2024-07-20 JIPPO L 0-238.8 1103 1167 36.92% 26.04% 37.04%-0.10 -17.5 17
2024-07-20 @ PK-35 Vantaa W 2-038.8 1167 1103 37.04% 26.04% 36.92%+0.10 +17.5 34
2024-07-20 KaPa W 4-031.1 1153 1100 52.35% 24.87% 22.79%+0.46 +22.5 17
2024-07-20 @ SJK Akatemia L 0-431.1 1100 1153 22.79% 24.87% 52.35%-0.46 -22.5 12
2024-07-20 SalPa W 6-030.8 1254 1164 56.72% 24.01% 19.27%+0.64 +28.3 35
2024-07-20 @ KTP L 0-630.8 1164 1254 19.27% 24.01% 56.72%-0.64 -28.3 20
2024-07-24 MP Mikkeli W 2-028.8 1243 1009 70.32% 19.43% 10.26%+1.33 +5.3 35
2024-07-24 @ Jaro L 0-228.8 1009 1243 10.26% 19.43% 70.32%-1.33 -5.3 8
2024-07-27 Jaro D 2-257.3 1115 1249 27.67% 25.59% 46.74%-0.44 +0.7 18
2024-07-27 @ JaPS D 2-257.3 1249 1115 46.74% 25.59% 27.67%+0.44 -0.7 36
2024-07-27 KTP L 1-534.4 1078 1283 20.30% 24.30% 55.40%-0.79 -16.9 12
2024-07-27 @ KaPa W 5-134.4 1283 1078 55.40% 24.30% 20.30%+0.79 +16.9 38
2024-07-27 PK-35 Vantaa D 1-152.3 1135 1086 51.96% 24.93% 23.12%+0.44 -1.5 21
2024-07-27 @ SalPa D 1-152.3 1086 1135 23.12% 24.93% 51.96%-0.44 +1.5 18
2024-07-27 SJK Akatemia L 1-242.2 1003 1175 23.51% 25.00% 51.49%-0.62 -6.1 8
2024-07-27 @ MP Mikkeli W 2-142.2 1175 1003 51.49% 25.00% 23.51%+0.62 +6.1 20
2024-07-27 TPS Turku W 2-039.0 1184 1247 37.05% 26.04% 36.91%-0.10 +17.4 37
2024-07-27 @ JIPPO L 0-239.0 1247 1184 36.91% 26.04% 37.05%+0.10 -17.4 30
2024-07-31 KTP L 1-238.1 997 1300 13.25% 21.48% 65.27%-1.25 -3.5 8
2024-07-31 @ MP Mikkeli W 2-138.1 1300 997 65.27% 21.48% 13.25%+1.25 +3.5 41
2024-07-31 SJK Akatemia D 1-152.0 1115 1181 36.58% 26.04% 37.38%-0.12 +0.0 19
2024-07-31 @ JaPS D 1-152.0 1181 1115 37.38% 26.04% 36.58%+0.12 -0.0 21
2024-07-31 TPS Turku L 0-145.4 1248 1229 48.12% 25.45% 26.43%+0.29 -11.4 36
2024-07-31 @ Jaro W 1-045.4 1229 1248 26.43% 25.45% 48.12%-0.29 +11.4 33
2024-08-10 MP Mikkeli L 2-455.6 1202 994 68.10% 20.38% 11.52%+1.20 -22.4 37
2024-08-10 @ JIPPO W 4-255.6 994 1202 11.52% 20.38% 68.10%-1.20 +22.4 11
2024-08-10 TPS Turku D 0-048.3 1134 1241 30.97% 25.87% 43.17%-0.31 +0.7 22
2024-08-10 @ SalPa D 0-048.3 1241 1134 43.17% 25.87% 30.97%+0.31 -0.7 34
2024-08-11 JaPS W 5-029.1 1236 1115 59.94% 23.20% 16.86%+0.78 +21.0 39
2024-08-11 @ Jaro L 0-529.1 1115 1236 16.86% 23.20% 59.94%-0.78 -21.0 19
2024-08-12 PK-35 Vantaa W 2-137.2 1303 1087 68.78% 20.10% 11.13%+1.24 +2.9 44
2024-08-12 @ KTP L 1-237.2 1087 1303 11.13% 20.10% 68.78%-1.24 -2.9 18
2024-08-13 KaPa W 2-032.0 1181 1061 59.89% 23.21% 16.90%+0.78 +9.0 24
2024-08-13 @ SJK Akatemia L 0-232.0 1061 1181 16.90% 23.21% 59.89%-0.78 -9.0 12
2024-08-16 SalPa L 0-239.8 1094 1134 40.26% 25.99% 33.74%+0.01 -18.6 19
2024-08-16 @ JaPS W 2-039.8 1134 1094 33.74% 25.99% 40.26%-0.01 +18.6 25
2024-08-17 KaPa W 5-341.4 1240 1052 66.41% 21.06% 12.54%+1.11 +4.9 37
2024-08-17 @ TPS Turku L 3-541.4 1052 1240 12.54% 21.06% 66.41%-1.11 -4.9 12
2024-08-18 Jaro W 4-253.9 1016 1257 17.32% 23.37% 59.31%-0.96 +19.9 14
2024-08-18 @ MP Mikkeli L 2-453.9 1257 1016 59.31% 23.37% 17.32%+0.96 -19.9 39
2024-08-18 PK-35 Vantaa L 0-147.3 1179 1084 57.17% 23.90% 18.92%+0.66 -13.2 37
2024-08-18 @ JIPPO W 1-047.3 1084 1179 18.92% 23.90% 57.17%-0.66 +13.2 21
2024-08-19 SJK Akatemia D 3-362.3 1306 1190 59.40% 23.34% 17.26%+0.76 -1.4 45
2024-08-19 @ KTP D 3-362.3 1190 1306 17.26% 23.34% 59.40%-0.76 +1.4 25
2024-08-24 JaPS D 0-048.3 1098 1076 48.57% 25.40% 26.04%+0.31 -1.3 22
2024-08-24 @ PK-35 Vantaa D 0-048.3 1076 1098 26.04% 25.40% 48.57%-0.31 +1.3 20
2024-08-24 TPS Turku D 1-152.2 1192 1245 38.37% 26.03% 35.60%-0.06 -0.1 26
2024-08-24 @ SJK Akatemia D 1-152.2 1245 1192 35.60% 26.03% 38.37%+0.06 +0.1 38
2024-08-25 JIPPO W 2-148.9 1047 1166 29.42% 25.76% 44.82%-0.37 +10.1 15
2024-08-25 @ KaPa L 1-248.9 1166 1047 44.82% 25.76% 29.42%+0.37 -10.1 37
2024-08-25 KTP L 1-247.0 1238 1305 36.41% 26.04% 37.56%-0.12 -8.6 39
2024-08-25 @ Jaro W 2-147.0 1305 1238 37.56% 26.04% 36.41%+0.12 +8.6 48
2024-08-25 SalPa L 1-244.3 1036 1153 29.74% 25.78% 44.48%-0.36 -7.4 14
2024-08-25 @ MP Mikkeli W 2-144.3 1153 1036 44.48% 25.78% 29.74%+0.36 +7.4 28
2024-08-30 MP Mikkeli W 4-031.3 1077 1029 51.82% 24.95% 23.23%+0.43 +22.9 23
2024-08-30 @ JaPS L 0-431.3 1029 1077 23.23% 24.95% 51.82%-0.43 -22.9 14
2024-08-30 PK-35 Vantaa L 1-253.3 1245 1096 62.71% 22.36% 14.92%+0.92 -13.5 38
2024-08-30 @ TPS Turku W 2-153.3 1096 1245 14.92% 22.36% 62.71%-0.92 +13.5 25
2024-08-31 KTP W 3-255.3 1156 1313 25.03% 25.25% 49.72%-0.56 +10.5 40
2024-08-31 @ JIPPO L 2-355.3 1313 1156 49.72% 25.25% 25.03%+0.56 -10.5 48
2024-08-31 SJK Akatemia D 1-152.1 1160 1191 41.51% 25.95% 32.54%+0.05 -0.4 29
2024-08-31 @ SalPa D 1-152.1 1191 1160 32.54% 25.95% 41.51%-0.05 +0.4 27
2024-09-01 KaPa W 3-243.1 1229 1057 64.91% 21.61% 13.48%+1.03 +3.4 42
2024-09-01 @ Jaro L 2-343.1 1057 1229 13.48% 21.61% 64.91%-1.03 -3.4 15
2024-09-12 JIPPO L 0-146.7 1232 1166 53.83% 24.61% 21.57%+0.52 -12.5 38
2024-09-12 @ TPS Turku W 1-046.7 1166 1232 21.57% 24.61% 53.83%-0.52 +12.5 43
2024-09-13 JaPS L 1-254.3 1303 1100 67.67% 20.56% 11.77%+1.18 -14.4 48
2024-09-13 @ KTP W 2-154.3 1100 1303 11.77% 20.56% 67.67%-1.18 +14.4 26
2024-09-14 Jaro L 2-352.6 1192 1232 40.21% 25.99% 33.79%+0.01 -8.8 27
2024-09-14 @ SJK Akatemia W 3-252.6 1232 1192 33.79% 25.99% 40.21%-0.01 +8.8 45
2024-09-14 MP Mikkeli W 3-246.9 1053 1006 51.75% 24.96% 23.29%+0.43 +5.7 18
2024-09-14 @ KaPa L 2-346.9 1006 1053 23.29% 24.96% 51.75%-0.43 -5.7 14
2024-09-14 SalPa W 1-041.4 1110 1160 38.84% 26.03% 35.14%-0.04 +8.9 28
2024-09-14 @ PK-35 Vantaa L 0-141.4 1160 1110 35.14% 26.03% 38.84%+0.04 -8.9 29
2024-09-20 SJK Akatemia W 2-146.9 1114 1183 36.16% 26.04% 37.81%-0.13 +8.9 29
2024-09-20 @ JaPS L 1-246.9 1183 1114 37.81% 26.04% 36.16%+0.13 -8.9 27
2024-09-22 JIPPO W 2-141.8 1241 1179 53.47% 24.67% 21.86%+0.50 +5.7 48
2024-09-22 @ Jaro L 1-241.8 1179 1241 21.86% 24.67% 53.47%-0.50 -5.7 43
2024-09-22 KTP L 2-541.7 1151 1288 27.26% 25.55% 47.19%-0.46 -14.6 29
2024-09-22 @ SalPa W 5-241.7 1288 1151 47.19% 25.55% 27.26%+0.46 +14.6 51
2024-09-22 PK-35 Vantaa D 1-151.9 1059 1119 37.49% 26.04% 36.47%-0.08 -0.0 19
2024-09-22 @ KaPa D 1-151.9 1119 1059 36.47% 26.04% 37.49%+0.08 +0.0 29
2024-09-22 TPS Turku D 0-048.7 1000 1219 19.10% 23.96% 56.94%-0.85 +2.2 15
2024-09-22 @ MP Mikkeli D 0-048.7 1219 1000 56.94% 23.96% 19.10%+0.85 -2.2 39
2024-09-27 JaPS L 2-356.9 1217 1123 57.05% 23.93% 19.02%+0.65 -11.8 39
2024-09-27 @ TPS Turku W 3-256.9 1123 1217 19.02% 23.93% 57.05%-0.65 +11.8 32
2024-09-27 KaPa W 7-230.3 1303 1059 71.09% 19.08% 9.84%+1.38 +8.3 54
2024-09-27 @ KTP L 2-730.3 1059 1303 9.84% 19.08% 71.09%-1.38 -8.3 19
2024-09-27 MP Mikkeli D 2-258.3 1174 1002 64.89% 21.62% 13.49%+1.03 -2.1 28
2024-09-27 @ SJK Akatemia D 2-258.3 1002 1174 13.49% 21.62% 64.89%-1.03 +2.1 16
2024-09-28 Jaro L 0-139.3 1119 1247 28.37% 25.66% 45.97%-0.41 -7.6 29
2024-09-28 @ PK-35 Vantaa W 1-039.3 1247 1119 45.97% 25.66% 28.37%+0.41 +7.6 51
2024-09-28 SalPa W 3-032.6 1173 1136 50.44% 25.16% 24.40%+0.38 +18.3 46
2024-09-28 @ JIPPO L 0-332.6 1136 1173 24.40% 25.16% 50.44%-0.38 -18.3 29
2024-10-03 Jaro W 3-036.3 1205 1254 38.95% 26.02% 35.02%-0.04 +24.4 42
2024-10-03 @ TPS Turku L 0-336.3 1254 1205 35.02% 26.02% 38.95%+0.04 -24.4 51
2024-10-05 JIPPO L 1-441.8 1135 1192 37.90% 26.04% 36.06%-0.07 -21.8 32
2024-10-05 @ JaPS W 4-141.8 1192 1135 36.06% 26.04% 37.90%+0.07 +21.8 49
2024-10-05 KaPa L 1-446.1 1118 1051 54.06% 24.56% 21.37%+0.53 -29.1 29
2024-10-05 @ SalPa W 4-146.1 1051 1118 21.37% 24.56% 54.06%-0.53 +29.1 22
2024-10-06 KTP L 0-527.3 1004 1311 12.98% 21.33% 65.69%-1.28 -16.1 16
2024-10-06 @ MP Mikkeli W 5-027.3 1311 1004 65.69% 21.33% 12.98%+1.28 +16.1 57
2024-10-06 PK-35 Vantaa D 2-257.5 1172 1111 53.32% 24.70% 21.98%+0.49 -1.2 29
2024-10-06 @ SJK Akatemia D 2-257.5 1111 1172 21.98% 24.70% 53.32%-0.49 +1.2 30
2024-10-19 JaPS L 3-551.4 1080 1113 41.23% 25.96% 32.82%+0.04 -13.9 22
2024-10-19 @ KaPa W 5-351.4 1113 1080 32.82% 25.96% 41.23%-0.04 +13.9 35
2024-10-19 MP Mikkeli W 1-034.9 1112 988 60.25% 23.11% 16.64%+0.80 +4.7 33
2024-10-19 @ PK-35 Vantaa L 0-134.9 988 1112 16.64% 23.11% 60.25%-0.80 -4.7 16
2024-10-19 SalPa W 3-029.2 1230 1089 61.94% 22.61% 15.45%+0.88 +12.0 54
2024-10-19 @ Jaro L 0-329.2 1089 1230 15.45% 22.61% 61.94%-0.88 -12.0 29
2024-10-19 SJK Akatemia W 4-137.3 1213 1171 51.12% 25.06% 23.82%+0.41 +15.1 52
2024-10-19 @ JIPPO L 1-437.3 1171 1213 23.82% 25.06% 51.12%-0.41 -15.1 29
2024-10-19 TPS Turku D 1-153.3 1327 1229 57.51% 23.83% 18.67%+0.67 -2.1 58
2024-10-19 @ KTP D 1-153.3 1229 1327 18.67% 23.83% 57.51%-0.67 +2.1 43

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-09-13 Ekenas D 1-154.7 1413 1192 69.24% 19.90% 10.86%+1.27 -3.2 1
2024-09-13 @ Inter Turku D 1-154.7 1192 1413 10.86% 19.90% 69.24%-1.27 +3.2 1
2024-09-14 Lahti W 3-033.6 1242 1225 47.94% 25.47% 26.59%+0.28 +19.6 3
2024-09-14 @ AC Oulu L 0-333.6 1225 1242 26.59% 25.47% 47.94%-0.28 -19.6 0
2024-09-15 Mariehamn W 2-140.7 1336 1226 58.81% 23.50% 17.69%+0.73 +4.7 3
2024-09-15 @ Gnistan L 1-240.7 1226 1336 17.69% 23.50% 58.81%-0.73 -4.7 0
2024-09-19 Mariehamn W 2-144.8 1205 1221 43.51% 25.84% 30.64%+0.12 +7.6 3
2024-09-19 @ Lahti L 1-244.8 1221 1205 30.64% 25.84% 43.51%-0.12 -7.6 0
2024-09-22 Gnistan W 3-147.6 1195 1341 26.30% 25.43% 48.27%-0.50 +18.7 4
2024-09-22 @ Ekenas L 1-347.6 1341 1195 48.27% 25.43% 26.30%+0.50 -18.7 3
2024-09-24 Inter Turku W 1-046.7 1261 1410 25.94% 25.38% 48.67%-0.52 +11.5 6
2024-09-24 @ AC Oulu L 0-146.7 1410 1261 48.67% 25.38% 25.94%+0.52 -11.5 1
2024-09-27 AC Oulu W 1-038.3 1322 1273 52.00% 24.92% 23.08%+0.44 +6.3 6
2024-09-27 @ Gnistan L 0-138.3 1273 1322 23.08% 24.92% 52.00%-0.44 -6.4 6
2024-09-28 Ekenas W 3-034.2 1214 1214 45.72% 25.68% 28.59%+0.20 +20.8 3
2024-09-28 @ Mariehamn L 0-334.2 1214 1214 28.59% 25.68% 45.72%-0.20 -20.8 4
2024-09-30 Lahti W 3-136.1 1399 1213 66.19% 21.14% 12.67%+1.10 +5.8 4
2024-09-30 @ Inter Turku L 1-336.1 1213 1399 12.67% 21.14% 66.19%-1.10 -5.8 3
2024-10-05 AC Oulu D 1-152.3 1193 1266 35.53% 26.03% 38.43%-0.15 +0.1 5
2024-10-05 @ Ekenas D 1-152.3 1266 1193 38.43% 26.03% 35.53%+0.15 -0.1 7
2024-10-05 Lahti D 2-258.4 1329 1207 60.04% 23.17% 16.79%+0.79 -1.7 7
2024-10-05 @ Gnistan D 2-258.4 1207 1329 16.79% 23.17% 60.04%-0.79 +1.7 4
2024-10-06 Inter Turku L 0-138.8 1235 1404 23.71% 25.04% 51.26%-0.62 -6.5 3
2024-10-06 @ Mariehamn W 1-038.8 1404 1235 51.26% 25.04% 23.71%+0.62 +6.5 7
2024-10-19 Ekenas D 0-048.4 1208 1193 47.71% 25.49% 26.80%+0.27 -1.2 5
2024-10-19 @ Lahti D 0-048.4 1193 1208 26.80% 25.49% 47.71%-0.27 +1.2 6
2024-10-19 Gnistan W 3-248.1 1411 1327 55.96% 24.18% 19.86%+0.61 +5.0 10
2024-10-19 @ Inter Turku L 2-348.1 1327 1411 19.86% 24.18% 55.96%-0.61 -5.0 7
2024-10-19 Mariehamn L 1-250.8 1266 1228 50.58% 25.14% 24.28%+0.38 -11.2 7
2024-10-19 @ AC Oulu W 2-150.8 1228 1266 24.28% 25.14% 50.58%-0.38 +11.2 6

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2024-10-23 Lahti W 2-0 1242 1207 50.17% 25.19% 24.63%+0.37 +12.7 1-0
2024-10-23 @ Jaro L 0-2 1207 1242 24.63% 25.19% 50.17%-0.37 -12.7 0-1
2024-10-27 Jaro W 1-0 1195 1255 37.41% 26.04% 36.55%-0.09 +9.2 1-1
2024-10-27 @ Lahti L 0-1 1255 1195 36.55% 26.04% 37.41%+0.09 -9.2 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-08-10 11.52% MP Mikkeli 994 4 @ JIPPO 1202 2
2 2024-09-13 11.77% JaPS 1100 2 @ KTP 1303 1
3 2024-04-13 12.97% JIPPO 1018 3 @ SalPa 1199 0
4 2024-08-30 14.92% PK-35 Vantaa 1096 2 @ TPS Turku 1245 1
5 2024-08-18 17.32% @ MP Mikkeli 1016 4 Jaro 1257 2
6 2024-07-06 17.94% MP Mikkeli 1017 2 @ PK-35 Vantaa 1124 1
7 2024-08-18 18.92% PK-35 Vantaa 1084 1 @ JIPPO 1179 0
8 2024-09-27 19.02% JaPS 1123 3 @ TPS Turku 1217 2
9 2024-07-13 19.92% SalPa 1145 3 @ TPS Turku 1228 2
10 2024-04-20 21.33% Jaro 1175 1 @ SJK Akatemia 1243 0
11 2024-10-05 21.37% KaPa 1051 4 @ SalPa 1118 1
12 2024-09-12 21.57% JIPPO 1166 1 @ TPS Turku 1232 0
13 2024-07-17 23.10% TPS Turku 1216 2 @ KTP 1266 1
14 2024-05-12 23.20% JIPPO 1092 5 @ JaPS 1140 1
15 2024-04-13 23.57% Jaro 1153 2 @ TPS Turku 1198 0
16 2024-06-19 23.85% JaPS 1123 3 @ SalPa 1166 1
17 2024-05-31 24.08% PK-35 Vantaa 1094 1 @ KaPa 1134 0
18 2024-10-19 24.28% Mariehamn 1228 2 @ AC Oulu 1266 1
19 2024-07-17 24.50% @ PK-35 Vantaa 1092 2 Jaro 1254 1
20 2024-08-31 25.03% @ JIPPO 1156 3 KTP 1313 2
21 2024-07-06 25.43% JIPPO 1125 2 @ SJK Akatemia 1152 1
22 2024-09-24 25.94% @ AC Oulu 1261 1 Inter Turku 1410 0
23 2024-09-22 26.30% @ Ekenas 1195 3 Gnistan 1341 1
24 2024-04-29 26.37% TPS Turku 1182 3 @ SJK Akatemia 1201 0
25 2024-07-31 26.43% TPS Turku 1229 1 @ Jaro 1248 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-13 40.74 JIPPO 3 1018 12.97% @ SalPa 0 1199 65.71% 21.32%
2 2024-05-12 36.21 JIPPO 5 1092 23.20% @ JaPS 1 1140 51.85% 24.94%
3 2024-04-13 32.91 @ KTP 4 1120 37.34% MP Mikkeli 0 1181 36.62% 26.04%
4 2024-04-29 31.26 TPS Turku 3 1182 26.37% @ SJK Akatemia 0 1201 48.19% 25.44%
5 2024-04-28 30.20 @ SalPa 5 1169 49.55% MP Mikkeli 0 1139 25.18% 25.28%
6 2024-04-28 29.65 KTP 5 1173 33.41% @ PK-35 Vantaa 1 1135 40.61% 25.98%
7 2024-04-24 29.57 @ KTP 5 1143 33.56% SJK Akatemia 1 1231 40.46% 25.99%
8 2024-10-05 29.07 KaPa 4 1051 21.37% @ SalPa 1 1118 54.06% 24.56%
9 2024-05-19 28.42 JaPS 3 1104 31.25% @ MP Mikkeli 0 1083 42.87% 25.88%
10 2024-07-20 28.33 @ KTP 6 1254 56.72% SalPa 0 1164 19.27% 24.01%
11 2024-05-18 25.70 KTP 4 1221 27.66% @ TPS Turku 1 1229 46.75% 25.59%
12 2024-05-12 25.20 @ KaPa 4 1130 48.57% MP Mikkeli 0 1108 26.04% 25.40%
13 2024-06-20 24.65 KTP 3 1256 38.41% @ SJK Akatemia 0 1183 35.56% 26.03%
14 2024-06-19 24.59 Jaro 3 1198 38.52% @ KaPa 0 1124 35.45% 26.03%
15 2024-10-03 24.37 @ TPS Turku 3 1205 38.95% Jaro 0 1254 35.02% 26.02%
16 2024-04-13 24.17 @ PK-35 Vantaa 3 1123 39.33% KaPa 0 1170 34.65% 26.02%
17 2024-07-17 24.13 JIPPO 4 1143 30.90% @ KaPa 1 1124 43.24% 25.86%
18 2024-08-30 22.88 @ JaPS 4 1077 51.82% MP Mikkeli 0 1029 23.23% 24.95%
19 2024-07-11 22.84 KaPa 6 1101 38.27% @ MP Mikkeli 2 1029 35.70% 26.03%
20 2024-04-13 22.74 Jaro 2 1153 23.57% @ TPS Turku 0 1198 51.42% 25.01%
21 2024-07-20 22.50 @ SJK Akatemia 4 1153 52.35% KaPa 0 1100 22.79% 24.87%
22 2024-08-10 22.37 MP Mikkeli 4 994 11.52% @ JIPPO 2 1202 68.10% 20.38%
23 2024-10-05 21.79 JIPPO 4 1192 36.06% @ JaPS 1 1135 37.90% 26.04%
24 2024-08-11 21.02 @ Jaro 5 1236 59.94% JaPS 0 1115 16.86% 23.20%
25 2024-09-28 20.82 @ Mariehamn 3 1214 45.72% Ekenas 0 1214 28.59% 25.68%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-08-19 62.3 @ KTP 3 1306 59.40% SJK Akatemia 3 1190 17.26% 23.34%
2 2024-04-28 61.2 @ KaPa 3 1136 43.56% JaPS 3 1152 30.60% 25.84%
3 2024-10-05 58.4 @ Gnistan 2 1329 60.04% Lahti 2 1207 16.79% 23.17%
4 2024-09-27 58.3 @ SJK Akatemia 2 1174 64.89% MP Mikkeli 2 1002 13.49% 21.62%
5 2024-06-19 57.8 @ TPS Turku 2 1224 57.54% PK-35 Vantaa 2 1126 18.64% 23.82%
6 2024-10-06 57.5 @ SJK Akatemia 2 1172 53.32% PK-35 Vantaa 2 1111 21.98% 24.70%
7 2024-06-28 57.3 @ JaPS 2 1143 51.27% KaPa 2 1099 23.70% 25.04%
8 2024-07-27 57.3 @ JaPS 2 1115 27.67% Jaro 2 1249 46.74% 25.59%
9 2024-06-08 57.2 @ SalPa 2 1167 33.94% KTP 2 1251 40.06% 26.00%
10 2024-09-27 56.9 JaPS 3 1123 19.02% @ TPS Turku 2 1217 57.05% 23.93%
11 2024-07-13 56.6 SalPa 3 1145 19.92% @ TPS Turku 2 1228 55.88% 24.19%
12 2024-08-10 55.6 MP Mikkeli 4 994 11.52% @ JIPPO 2 1202 68.10% 20.38%
13 2024-08-31 55.3 @ JIPPO 3 1156 25.03% KTP 2 1313 49.72% 25.25%
14 2024-09-13 54.7 @ Inter Turku 1 1413 69.24% Ekenas 1 1192 10.86% 19.90%
15 2024-09-13 54.3 JaPS 2 1100 11.77% @ KTP 1 1303 67.67% 20.56%
16 2024-04-24 54.1 SalPa 3 1159 28.28% @ JaPS 2 1162 46.07% 25.65%
17 2024-08-18 53.9 @ MP Mikkeli 4 1016 17.32% Jaro 2 1257 59.31% 23.37%
18 2024-08-30 53.3 PK-35 Vantaa 2 1096 14.92% @ TPS Turku 1 1245 62.71% 22.36%
19 2024-10-19 53.3 @ KTP 1 1327 57.51% TPS Turku 1 1229 18.67% 23.83%
20 2024-07-17 52.9 @ JaPS 1 1136 60.82% MP Mikkeli 1 1006 16.23% 22.95%
21 2024-09-14 52.6 Jaro 3 1232 33.79% @ SJK Akatemia 2 1192 40.21% 25.99%
22 2024-04-24 52.4 @ MP Mikkeli 1 1141 54.60% JIPPO 1 1069 20.95% 24.46%
23 2024-06-12 52.3 @ SalPa 1 1167 51.37% KaPa 1 1122 23.61% 25.02%
24 2024-06-12 52.3 @ Jaro 1 1199 47.96% SJK Akatemia 1 1182 26.58% 25.47%
25 2024-07-06 52.3 MP Mikkeli 2 1017 17.94% @ PK-35 Vantaa 1 1124 58.47% 23.59%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-10-06 27.3 KTP 5 1311 65.69% @ MP Mikkeli 0 1004 12.98% 21.33%
2 2024-07-24 28.8 @ Jaro 2 1243 70.32% MP Mikkeli 0 1009 10.26% 19.43%
3 2024-08-11 29.1 @ Jaro 5 1236 59.94% JaPS 0 1115 16.86% 23.20%
4 2024-10-19 29.2 @ Jaro 3 1230 61.94% SalPa 0 1089 15.45% 22.61%
5 2024-07-20 29.8 @ TPS Turku 4 1228 57.08% JaPS 0 1134 18.99% 23.93%
6 2024-09-27 30.3 @ KTP 7 1303 71.09% KaPa 2 1059 9.84% 19.08%
7 2024-07-20 30.8 @ KTP 6 1254 56.72% SalPa 0 1164 19.27% 24.01%
8 2024-07-20 31.1 @ SJK Akatemia 4 1153 52.35% KaPa 0 1100 22.79% 24.87%
9 2024-08-30 31.3 @ JaPS 4 1077 51.82% MP Mikkeli 0 1029 23.23% 24.95%
10 2024-08-13 32.0 @ SJK Akatemia 2 1181 59.89% KaPa 0 1061 16.90% 23.21%
11 2024-04-28 32.2 @ SalPa 5 1169 49.55% MP Mikkeli 0 1139 25.18% 25.28%
12 2024-05-12 32.3 @ KaPa 4 1130 48.57% MP Mikkeli 0 1108 26.04% 25.40%
13 2024-06-12 32.5 TPS Turku 3 1206 50.87% @ MP Mikkeli 0 1040 24.04% 25.09%
14 2024-09-28 32.6 @ JIPPO 3 1173 50.44% SalPa 0 1136 24.40% 25.16%
15 2024-07-13 32.8 @ SJK Akatemia 3 1141 49.63% PK-35 Vantaa 0 1111 25.11% 25.27%
16 2024-09-14 33.6 @ AC Oulu 3 1242 47.94% Lahti 0 1225 26.59% 25.47%
17 2024-06-29 34.2 @ KTP 1 1281 63.10% PK-35 Vantaa 0 1128 14.66% 22.24%
18 2024-09-28 34.2 @ Mariehamn 3 1214 45.72% Ekenas 0 1214 28.59% 25.68%
19 2024-05-03 34.4 @ KTP 2 1202 52.03% JaPS 0 1152 23.05% 24.92%
20 2024-07-27 34.4 KTP 5 1283 55.40% @ KaPa 1 1078 20.30% 24.30%
21 2024-06-08 34.6 @ TPS Turku 2 1194 51.40% JIPPO 0 1149 23.59% 25.02%
22 2024-10-19 34.9 @ PK-35 Vantaa 1 1112 60.25% MP Mikkeli 0 988 16.64% 23.11%
23 2024-04-13 35.7 @ KTP 4 1120 37.34% MP Mikkeli 0 1181 36.62% 26.04%
24 2024-04-13 35.9 @ PK-35 Vantaa 3 1123 39.33% KaPa 0 1170 34.65% 26.02%
25 2024-06-29 36.0 @ Jaro 1 1222 56.88% JIPPO 0 1130 19.15% 23.97%