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2001-02 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

84 games

Final

Champion

Gibraltar United

51 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 1964-65

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

St. Josephs

11.21 points above expected

40 points · 28.79 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glacis United

5.92 points below expected

39 points · 44.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Gibraltar United Champion 21 16 3 2 51 60 21 +39 43.24 +7.76
2 Lincoln Red Imps 21 14 3 4 45 66 32 +34 41.53 +3.47
3 St. Josephs 21 13 1 7 40 49 30 +19 28.79 +11.21
4 Glacis United 21 12 3 6 39 34 17 +17 44.92 -5.92
5 Manchester United Eurobet 21 8 6 7 30 32 33 -1 35.01 -5.01
6 Rock Wolves 21 3 7 11 16 24 39 -15 19.77 -3.77
7 Lions FC 21 3 1 17 10 18 74 -56 12.61 -2.61
8 Pegasus 21 3 0 18 9 21 58 -37 13.05 -4.05

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Josephs 40 28.79 +11.21
2 Gibraltar United 51 43.24 +7.76
3 Lincoln Red Imps 45 41.53 +3.47
4 Lions FC 10 12.61 -2.61
5 Rock Wolves 16 19.77 -3.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glacis United 39 44.92 -5.92
2 Manchester United Eurobet 30 35.01 -5.01
3 Pegasus 9 13.05 -4.05
4 Rock Wolves 16 19.77 -3.77
5 Lions FC 10 12.61 -2.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Josephs 4 Nov 3 – Dec 1 1 in 79
2 Gibraltar United 7 Oct 6 – Nov 24 1 in 51
3 Manchester United Eurobet 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 25
4 Lincoln Red Imps 5 Jan 19 – Mar 16 1 in 19
5 Lions FC 1 Nov 17 – Nov 17 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glacis United 3 Jan 19 – Mar 5 1 in 218
2 Pegasus 8 Oct 27 – Jan 12 1 in 47
3 Lions FC 6 Oct 6 – Nov 10 1 in 27
4 Manchester United Eurobet 2 Nov 17 – Nov 24 1 in 15
5 Gibraltar United 2 Dec 3 – Dec 4 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gibraltar United 12 Dec 8 – May 13 1 in 13
2 St. Josephs 4 Nov 3 – Dec 1 1 in 13
3 Lincoln Red Imps 5 Jan 19 – Mar 16 1 in 5
4 Rock Wolves 2 Oct 13 – Oct 20 1 in 4
5 Manchester United Eurobet 4 Oct 13 – Nov 10 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glacis United 3 Jan 19 – Mar 5 1 in 25
2 Manchester United Eurobet 5 Nov 17 – Dec 8 1 in 16
3 Rock Wolves 10 Jan 12 – Apr 27 1 in 14
4 Pegasus 8 Oct 27 – Jan 12 1 in 7
5 Gibraltar United 3 Dec 3 – Dec 8 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Gibraltar United 1452 48 +38 13 11.5 +1.5
Lincoln Red Imps 1443 45 +63 10 10.4 -0.4
St. Josephs 1275 40 +43 12 8.3 +3.7
Glacis United 1288 36 -56 7 8.6 -1.6
Manchester United Eurobet 1128 27 -52 7 8.9 -1.9
Rock Wolves 927 16 +3 5 3.8 +1.2
Lions FC 786 10 -36 3 2.9 +0.1
Pegasus 811 9 -66 0 3.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GU GU LRI LIO MUE PEG RW SJ
Gibraltar United —
2-0-1
3.64
2-0-1
4.76
3-0-0
7.83
2-1-0
5.06
3-0-0
7.81
2-1-0
7.11
2-1-0
6.26
Glacis United
1-0-2
4.86
 —
1-1-1
4.73
3-0-0
7.78
0-1-2
6.72
3-0-0
7.82
2-1-0
7.61
2-0-1
6.73
Lincoln Red Imps
1-0-2
3.74
1-1-1
3.78
 —
3-0-0
7.72
2-1-0
5.83
3-0-0
7.40
2-1-0
6.98
2-0-1
6.24
Lions FC
0-0-3
0.75
0-0-3
0.79
0-0-3
0.84
 —
0-0-3
1.52
2-0-1
3.97
1-1-1
2.42
0-0-3
2.75
Manchester United Eurobet
0-1-2
3.44
2-1-0
1.80
0-1-2
2.67
3-0-0
7.00
 —
3-0-0
7.03
0-3-0
6.24
0-0-3
4.80
Pegasus
0-0-3
0.76
0-0-3
0.75
0-0-3
1.14
1-0-2
4.52
0-0-3
1.49
 —
1-0-2
2.72
1-0-2
2.14
Rock Wolves
0-1-2
1.42
0-1-2
0.94
0-1-2
1.55
1-1-1
6.08
0-3-0
2.27
2-0-1
5.78
 —
0-0-3
2.25
St. Josephs
0-1-2
2.25
1-0-2
1.80
1-0-2
2.27
3-0-0
5.78
3-0-0
3.70
2-0-1
6.39
3-0-0
6.26
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +8.2
Allowed 0.73 -7.3
Differential 0.94 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%5.36%6.55%3.57%1.19%5.36%26.79%
15.36%1.19%4.17%5.95%1.79%1.79%20.24%
26.55%4.17%4.76%1.79%0.60%2.38%20.24%
33.57%5.95%1.79%1.19%0.60%—13.10%
41.19%1.79%0.60%0.60%2.38%—6.55%
5+5.36%1.79%2.38%——3.57%13.10%
Total26.79%20.24%20.24%13.10%6.55%13.10%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.77 +0.00
SD 1.84 1.84 2.80
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 84

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%—4.76%———9.52%
14.76%—4.76%———9.52%
24.76%14.29%4.76%———23.81%
39.52%14.29%————23.81%
4—4.76%4.76%—4.76%—14.29%
5+9.52%—4.76%——4.76%19.05%
Total33.33%33.33%23.81%—4.76%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.81 0.95 +1.86
SD 2.23 1.12 2.33
CV 0.79 1.17 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%9.52%———23.81%
19.52%—4.76%4.76%——19.05%
214.29%14.29%————28.57%
34.76%—————4.76%
4————4.76%—4.76%
5+9.52%————9.52%19.05%
Total47.62%19.05%14.29%4.76%4.76%9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 0.71 +0.81
SD 1.83 1.27 2.09
CV 1.20 1.78 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.76%—4.76%—9.52%
14.76%——4.76%——9.52%
214.29%—4.76%—4.76%—23.81%
34.76%14.29%—4.76%——23.81%
4————4.76%—4.76%
5+9.52%4.76%14.29%———28.57%
Total33.33%19.05%23.81%9.52%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 1.52 +1.62
SD 2.03 1.44 2.73
CV 0.65 0.94 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%9.52%4.76%4.76%—28.57%52.38%
14.76%—9.52%4.76%—4.76%23.81%
2—————9.52%9.52%
3—4.76%4.76%—4.76%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.52%14.29%19.05%9.52%4.76%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 3.52 -2.67
SD 1.11 2.40 2.73
CV 1.29 0.68 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%9.52%—4.76%—4.76%28.57%
19.52%4.76%——4.76%4.76%23.81%
2——9.52%4.76%——14.29%
34.76%9.52%—4.76%——19.05%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+4.76%————4.76%9.52%
Total33.33%23.81%9.52%14.29%4.76%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.52 -0.05
SD 1.57 1.86 2.58
CV 1.06 1.22 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%9.52%4.76%4.76%33.33%
14.76%—4.76%23.81%4.76%4.76%42.86%
2———4.76%—4.76%9.52%
3——4.76%———4.76%
4———————
5+4.76%————4.76%9.52%
Total9.52%—23.81%38.10%9.52%19.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.71 -1.76
SD 1.28 1.68 2.23
CV 1.35 0.62 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%14.29%14.29%4.76%——42.86%
1—4.76%—4.76%4.76%—14.29%
2——19.05%——4.76%23.81%
3—4.76%————4.76%
4—4.76%—4.76%——9.52%
5+—————4.76%4.76%
Total9.52%28.57%33.33%14.29%4.76%9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.81 -0.71
SD 1.41 1.50 1.68
CV 1.29 0.83 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.76%—4.76%—4.76%14.29%
14.76%—9.52%4.76%——19.05%
219.05%4.76%—4.76%——28.57%
34.76%—4.76%———9.52%
44.76%4.76%——4.76%—14.29%
5+4.76%9.52%————14.29%
Total38.10%23.81%14.29%14.29%4.76%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.43 +0.90
SD 1.65 1.63 2.70
CV 0.71 1.14 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Gibraltar United 1452 51 43.24 +7.76 95.0% 31 35 40 43 46 51 54
Lincoln Red Imps 1443 45 41.53 +3.47 79.0% 24 33 38 42 45 49 54
Glacis United 1288 39 44.92 -5.92 11.0% 34 37 42 44 48 53 55
St. Josephs 1275 40 28.79 +11.21 99.0% 14 18 25 29 33 36 41
Manchester United Eurobet 1128 30 35.01 -5.01 19.0% 24 26 31 35 38 43 49
Rock Wolves 927 16 19.77 -3.77 19.0% 11 13 17 20 22 26 31
Pegasus 811 9 13.05 -4.05 24.0% 3 5 10 12 16 21 26
Lions FC 786 10 12.61 -2.61 31.0% 5 6 10 13 15 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.90%
Strong Edge
48.81%14.29%36.90%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
Gibraltar United, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.82 * Some Luck: 3.82 to 5.72 * Lucky: 5.72 to 7.63 * Wild Swing: 7.63 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.49 * Close: 0.49 to 0.74 * Off: 0.74 to 0.98 * Way Off: 0.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.08 points
Lucky
04.7712
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Way Off
00.611.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
St. Josephs
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
11.00%
Glacis United
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Top-Heavy
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 269.48
2.56
Strong Separation
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
92%
Clear Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Some Drama
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Occasional
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.462
Matchup Imbalance
0.62
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.49
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Upset-Prone
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.28
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Gibraltar United34.00%31.00%23.00%9.00%3.00%———
Lincoln Red Imps21.00%29.00%34.00%14.00%2.00%———
St. Josephs——6.00%19.00%63.00%8.00%4.00%—
Glacis United42.00%34.00%18.00%5.00%1.00%———
Manchester United Eurobet3.00%6.00%19.00%51.00%19.00%2.00%——
Rock Wolves———2.00%9.00%70.00%13.00%6.00%
Lions FC————1.00%6.00%40.00%53.00%
Pegasus————2.00%14.00%43.00%41.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Gibraltar United 100%
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions FC 100%
Manchester United Eurobet 100%
Pegasus 100%
Rock Wolves 100%
St. Josephs 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2001-10-06 Rock Wolves FW50.4 1429 1033 79.20% 15.09% 5.72%+2.14 +0.0 3
2001-10-06 @ Glacis United FL50.4 1033 1429 5.72% 15.09% 79.20%-2.14 +0.0 0
2001-10-06 Gibraltar United L 0-344.5 1329 1184 63.23% 16.51% 20.26%+0.88 -88.6 0
2001-10-06 @ Manchester United Eurobet W 3-044.5 1184 1329 20.26% 16.51% 63.23%-0.88 +88.6 3
2001-10-06 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-535.3 908 1301 7.97% 15.54% 76.49%-1.83 -9.7 0
2001-10-06 @ Pegasus W 5-235.3 1301 908 76.49% 15.54% 7.97%+1.83 +9.7 3
2001-10-06 Lions FC W 2-148.8 912 1015 31.59% 16.76% 51.65%-0.37 +25.1 3
2001-10-06 @ St. Josephs L 1-248.8 1015 912 51.65% 16.76% 31.59%+0.37 -25.1 0
2001-10-13 Pegasus W 4-135.9 1033 898 62.20% 16.54% 21.25%+0.82 +28.5 3
2001-10-13 @ Rock Wolves L 1-435.9 898 1033 21.25% 16.54% 62.20%-0.82 -28.5 0
2001-10-13 Glacis United L 0-326.7 990 1429 6.26% 15.22% 78.52%-2.06 -10.5 0
2001-10-13 @ Lions FC W 3-026.7 1429 990 78.52% 15.22% 6.26%+2.06 +10.5 6
2001-10-13 Manchester United Eurobet D 3-363.8 1310 1240 55.00% 16.72% 28.28%+0.50 -2.0 4
2001-10-13 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 3-363.8 1240 1310 28.28% 16.72% 55.00%-0.50 +2.0 1
2001-10-13 St. Josephs W 2-135.3 1273 937 76.64% 15.52% 7.84%+1.84 +4.5 6
2001-10-13 @ Gibraltar United L 1-235.3 937 1273 7.84% 15.52% 76.64%-1.84 -4.5 3
2001-10-20 Glacis United L 1-234.1 932 1439 4.37% 14.69% 80.95%-2.41 -2.5 3
2001-10-20 @ St. Josephs W 2-134.1 1439 932 80.95% 14.69% 4.37%+2.41 +2.5 9
2001-10-20 Lincoln Red Imps W 3-144.9 1277 1308 41.40% 16.82% 41.78%-0.01 +36.2 9
2001-10-20 @ Gibraltar United L 1-344.9 1308 1277 41.78% 16.82% 41.40%+0.01 -36.2 4
2001-10-20 Lions FC W 5-038.8 870 979 30.77% 16.75% 52.47%-0.41 +119.3 3
2001-10-20 @ Pegasus L 0-538.8 979 870 52.47% 16.75% 30.77%+0.41 -119.3 0
2001-10-20 Rock Wolves D 1-154.7 1242 1061 66.56% 16.37% 17.08%+1.06 -6.2 2
2001-10-20 @ Manchester United Eurobet D 1-154.7 1061 1242 17.08% 16.37% 66.56%-1.06 +6.2 4
2001-10-27 Pegasus W 6-023.9 1442 989 81.14% 14.64% 4.23%+2.43 +13.5 12
2001-10-27 @ Glacis United L 0-623.9 989 1442 4.23% 14.64% 81.14%-2.43 -13.5 3
2001-10-27 Gibraltar United L 1-434.7 1067 1313 16.72% 16.35% 66.93%-1.09 -22.8 4
2001-10-27 @ Rock Wolves W 4-134.7 1313 1067 66.93% 16.35% 16.72%+1.09 +22.8 12
2001-10-27 Manchester United Eurobet L 1-333.8 860 1236 8.70% 15.65% 75.66%-1.75 -8.7 0
2001-10-27 @ Lions FC W 3-133.8 1236 860 75.66% 15.65% 8.70%+1.75 +8.7 5
2001-10-27 St. Josephs W 3-133.5 1272 930 76.95% 15.47% 7.57%+1.87 +7.5 7
2001-10-27 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-333.5 930 1272 7.57% 15.47% 76.95%-1.87 -7.6 3
2001-11-03 Pegasus W 2-040.6 922 975 38.32% 16.81% 44.87%-0.12 +44.4 6
2001-11-03 @ St. Josephs L 0-240.6 975 922 44.87% 16.81% 38.32%+0.12 -44.4 3
2001-11-03 Lions FC W 8-024.1 1336 851 82.06% 14.37% 3.57%+2.59 +14.9 15
2001-11-03 @ Gibraltar United L 0-824.1 851 1336 3.57% 14.37% 82.06%-2.59 -14.9 0
2001-11-03 Rock Wolves D 2-259.2 1280 1044 70.78% 16.12% 13.10%+1.33 -5.5 8
2001-11-03 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 2-259.2 1044 1280 13.10% 16.12% 70.78%-1.33 +5.5 5
2001-11-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-228.6 836 1274 6.30% 15.22% 78.47%-2.06 -7.3 0
2001-11-10 @ Lions FC W 2-028.6 1274 836 78.47% 15.22% 6.30%+2.06 +7.3 11
2001-11-10 Manchester United Eurobet L 1-334.9 931 1245 11.95% 16.02% 72.03%-1.43 -11.8 3
2001-11-10 @ Pegasus W 3-134.9 1245 931 72.03% 16.02% 11.95%+1.43 +11.8 8
2001-11-17 Pegasus FW50.3 1351 919 80.46% 14.81% 4.73%+2.32 +0.0 18
2001-11-17 @ Gibraltar United FL50.3 919 1351 4.73% 14.81% 80.46%-2.32 +0.0 3
2001-11-17 Glacis United L 0-236.5 1282 1455 23.40% 16.61% 59.99%-0.73 -25.3 11
2001-11-17 @ Lincoln Red Imps W 2-036.5 1455 1282 59.99% 16.61% 23.40%+0.73 +25.3 15
2001-11-17 Lions FC L 0-150.1 1050 829 69.72% 16.19% 14.09%+1.26 -35.7 5
2001-11-17 @ Rock Wolves W 1-050.1 829 1050 14.09% 16.19% 69.72%-1.26 +35.7 3
2001-11-17 St. Josephs L 1-549.9 1257 967 74.26% 15.81% 9.93%+1.61 -113.6 8
2001-11-17 @ Manchester United Eurobet W 5-149.9 967 1257 9.93% 15.81% 74.26%-1.61 +113.6 9
2001-11-24 Pegasus W 3-027.1 1256 919 76.70% 15.51% 7.79%+1.84 +13.0 14
2001-11-24 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-327.1 919 1256 7.79% 15.51% 76.70%-1.84 -13.0 3
2001-11-24 Glacis United D 0-052.2 1014 1481 5.42% 15.01% 79.57%-2.20 +10.8 6
2001-11-24 @ Rock Wolves D 0-052.2 1481 1014 79.57% 15.01% 5.42%+2.20 -10.8 16
2001-11-24 Manchester United Eurobet W 1-034.1 1351 1143 68.74% 16.25% 15.01%+1.19 +8.9 21
2001-11-24 @ Gibraltar United L 0-134.1 1143 1351 15.01% 16.25% 68.74%-1.19 -8.9 8
2001-11-24 St. Josephs L 0-528.8 865 1080 19.35% 16.47% 64.18%-0.94 -49.9 3
2001-11-24 @ Lions FC W 5-028.8 1080 865 64.18% 16.47% 19.35%+0.94 +49.9 12
2001-12-01 Glacis United D 0-052.5 1134 1470 10.70% 15.90% 73.40%-1.54 +9.0 9
2001-12-01 @ Manchester United Eurobet D 0-052.5 1470 1134 73.40% 15.90% 10.70%+1.54 -9.0 17
2001-12-01 St. Josephs L 0-236.6 1025 1130 31.39% 16.76% 51.85%-0.38 -32.8 6
2001-12-01 @ Rock Wolves W 2-036.6 1130 1025 51.85% 16.76% 31.39%+0.38 +32.8 15
2001-12-03 Pegasus W 3-146.6 815 906 33.18% 16.78% 50.04%-0.31 +42.3 6
2001-12-03 @ Lions FC L 1-346.6 906 815 50.04% 16.78% 33.18%+0.31 -42.3 3
2001-12-03 Gibraltar United W 2-043.3 1269 1360 33.24% 16.78% 49.98%-0.31 +48.8 17
2001-12-03 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-243.3 1360 1269 49.98% 16.78% 33.24%+0.31 -48.8 21
2001-12-03 Manchester United Eurobet D 2-258.9 992 1143 25.89% 16.67% 57.44%-0.61 +2.8 7
2001-12-03 @ Rock Wolves D 2-258.9 1143 992 57.44% 16.67% 25.89%+0.61 -2.8 10
2001-12-03 St. Josephs W 1-033.0 1461 1163 74.70% 15.76% 9.54%+1.65 +5.8 20
2001-12-03 @ Glacis United L 0-133.0 1163 1461 9.54% 15.76% 74.70%-1.65 -5.8 15
2001-12-04 Gibraltar United W 2-142.1 1467 1311 64.23% 16.47% 19.30%+0.93 +10.6 23
2001-12-04 @ Glacis United L 1-242.1 1311 1467 19.30% 16.47% 64.23%-0.93 -10.7 21
2001-12-08 Gibraltar United D 4-466.2 1157 1301 26.72% 16.69% 56.59%-0.58 +2.0 16
2001-12-08 @ St. Josephs D 4-466.2 1301 1157 56.59% 16.69% 26.72%+0.58 -1.9 22
2001-12-08 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-136.5 1140 1318 22.97% 16.60% 60.43%-0.75 -13.2 10
2001-12-08 @ Manchester United Eurobet W 1-036.5 1318 1140 60.43% 16.60% 22.97%+0.75 +13.2 20
2001-12-08 Lions FC W 5-022.6 1477 857 85.14% 13.14% 1.72%+3.27 +4.5 26
2001-12-08 @ Glacis United L 0-522.6 857 1477 1.72% 13.14% 85.14%-3.27 -4.5 6
2001-12-08 Rock Wolves L 1-340.0 864 995 28.15% 16.71% 55.14%-0.51 -25.8 3
2001-12-08 @ Pegasus W 3-140.0 995 864 55.14% 16.71% 28.15%+0.51 +25.8 10
2002-01-12 Glacis United L 0-226.9 838 1482 2.10% 13.48% 84.42%-3.09 -2.4 3
2002-01-12 @ Pegasus W 2-026.9 1482 838 84.42% 13.48% 2.10%+3.09 +2.4 29
2002-01-12 Lincoln Red Imps W 4-042.0 1159 1331 23.54% 16.61% 59.85%-0.72 +109.6 19
2002-01-12 @ St. Josephs L 0-442.0 1331 1159 59.85% 16.61% 23.54%+0.72 -109.6 20
2002-01-12 Lions FC W 1-032.3 1127 853 73.32% 15.90% 10.77%+1.53 +6.5 13
2002-01-12 @ Manchester United Eurobet L 0-132.3 853 1127 10.77% 15.90% 73.32%-1.53 -6.5 6
2002-01-12 Rock Wolves W 3-134.6 1299 1021 73.52% 15.89% 10.59%+1.54 +10.5 25
2002-01-12 @ Gibraltar United L 1-334.6 1021 1299 10.59% 15.89% 73.52%-1.54 -10.5 10
2002-01-19 Gibraltar United L 0-624.2 846 1309 5.53% 15.04% 79.43%-2.18 -17.7 6
2002-01-19 @ Lions FC W 6-024.2 1309 846 79.43% 15.04% 5.53%+2.18 +17.7 28
2002-01-19 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-636.5 1010 1222 19.71% 16.49% 63.81%-0.92 -29.1 10
2002-01-19 @ Rock Wolves W 6-236.5 1222 1010 63.81% 16.49% 19.71%+0.92 +29.1 23
2002-01-19 Manchester United Eurobet L 0-153.2 1484 1134 77.32% 15.42% 7.27%+1.91 -39.7 29
2002-01-19 @ Glacis United W 1-053.2 1134 1484 7.27% 15.42% 77.32%-1.91 +39.7 16
2002-01-19 St. Josephs W 3-260.9 836 1269 6.47% 15.26% 78.27%-2.03 +36.0 6
2002-01-19 @ Pegasus L 2-360.9 1269 836 78.27% 15.26% 6.47%+2.03 -36.0 19
2002-01-26 Pegasus W 3-027.6 1173 872 74.90% 15.74% 9.36%+1.66 +15.6 19
2002-01-26 @ Manchester United Eurobet L 0-327.6 872 1173 9.36% 15.74% 74.90%-1.66 -15.6 6
2002-01-26 Glacis United W 2-046.2 1327 1444 29.79% 16.74% 53.47%-0.45 +51.9 31
2002-01-26 @ Gibraltar United L 0-246.2 1444 1327 53.47% 16.74% 29.79%+0.45 -51.9 29
2002-01-26 Lions FC W 5-234.1 1251 829 80.13% 14.89% 4.98%+2.27 +6.1 26
2002-01-26 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 2-534.1 829 1251 4.98% 14.89% 80.13%-2.27 -6.1 6
2002-01-26 Rock Wolves W 3-028.5 1233 981 71.86% 16.03% 12.10%+1.41 +20.0 22
2002-01-26 @ St. Josephs L 0-328.5 981 1233 12.10% 16.03% 71.86%-1.41 -20.0 10
2002-02-11 Rock Wolves D 0-051.3 823 961 27.26% 16.70% 56.04%-0.55 +3.9 7
2002-02-11 @ Lions FC D 0-051.3 961 823 56.04% 16.70% 27.26%+0.55 -3.9 11
2002-02-16 Pegasus L 0-146.9 958 856 58.68% 16.64% 24.68%+0.66 -30.0 11
2002-02-16 @ Rock Wolves W 1-046.9 856 958 24.68% 16.64% 58.68%-0.66 +30.0 9
2002-03-02 Gibraltar United L 1-234.2 886 1379 4.72% 14.81% 80.48%-2.33 -2.7 9
2002-03-02 @ Pegasus W 2-134.2 1379 886 80.48% 14.81% 4.72%+2.33 +2.7 34
2002-03-04 Manchester United Eurobet W 3-246.8 1253 1189 54.23% 16.73% 29.04%+0.47 +14.5 25
2002-03-04 @ St. Josephs L 2-346.8 1189 1253 29.04% 16.73% 54.23%-0.47 -14.5 19
2002-03-05 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-351.5 1393 1257 62.29% 16.54% 21.17%+0.83 -52.0 29
2002-03-05 @ Glacis United W 3-151.5 1257 1393 21.17% 16.54% 62.29%-0.83 +52.0 29
2002-03-05 Lions FC W 1-030.1 1267 826 80.75% 14.74% 4.51%+2.36 +2.8 28
2002-03-05 @ St. Josephs L 0-130.1 826 1267 4.51% 14.74% 80.75%-2.36 -2.8 7
2002-03-09 Gibraltar United D 0-052.0 1174 1381 20.10% 16.50% 63.40%-0.90 +6.0 20
2002-03-09 @ Manchester United Eurobet D 0-052.0 1381 1174 63.40% 16.50% 20.10%+0.90 -6.0 35
2002-03-09 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-333.2 883 1309 6.72% 15.31% 77.97%-2.00 -6.7 9
2002-03-09 @ Pegasus W 3-133.2 1309 883 77.97% 15.31% 6.72%+2.00 +6.7 32
2002-03-12 Rock Wolves W 1-030.5 1341 927 79.81% 14.96% 5.23%+2.23 +3.2 32
2002-03-12 @ Glacis United L 0-130.5 927 1341 5.23% 14.96% 79.81%-2.23 -3.2 11
2002-03-16 Manchester United Eurobet W 6-029.8 1316 1180 62.26% 16.54% 21.20%+0.83 +64.4 35
2002-03-16 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-629.8 1180 1316 21.20% 16.54% 62.26%-0.83 -64.4 20
2002-03-18 St. Josephs W 3-033.6 1375 1270 59.12% 16.63% 24.25%+0.68 +38.0 38
2002-03-18 @ Gibraltar United L 0-333.6 1270 1375 24.25% 16.63% 59.12%-0.68 -38.0 28
2002-03-19 Glacis United L 1-233.9 824 1344 4.08% 14.58% 81.34%-2.47 -2.3 7
2002-03-19 @ Lions FC W 2-133.9 1344 824 81.34% 14.58% 4.08%+2.47 +2.3 35
2002-03-23 Lincoln Red Imps W 4-249.1 1413 1380 50.36% 16.78% 32.86%+0.31 +26.4 41
2002-03-23 @ Gibraltar United L 2-449.1 1380 1413 32.86% 16.78% 50.36%-0.31 -26.4 35
2002-03-23 Rock Wolves D 2-259.0 1116 924 67.43% 16.33% 16.24%+1.11 -4.8 21
2002-03-23 @ Manchester United Eurobet D 2-259.0 924 1116 16.24% 16.33% 67.43%-1.11 +4.8 12
2002-03-25 Lions FC L 2-353.8 877 821 53.19% 16.74% 30.07%+0.42 -24.5 9
2002-03-25 @ Pegasus W 3-253.8 821 877 30.07% 16.74% 53.19%-0.42 +24.5 10
2002-03-26 Glacis United W 2-043.8 1232 1346 30.23% 16.75% 53.02%-0.43 +51.5 31
2002-03-26 @ St. Josephs L 0-243.8 1346 1232 53.02% 16.75% 30.23%+0.43 -51.5 35
2002-04-13 Manchester United Eurobet L 0-527.5 846 1111 15.21% 16.26% 68.52%-1.19 -39.9 10
2002-04-13 @ Lions FC W 5-027.5 1111 846 68.52% 16.26% 15.21%+1.19 +39.9 24
2002-04-13 St. Josephs W 6-032.7 1354 1283 55.03% 16.72% 28.25%+0.50 +83.1 38
2002-04-13 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-632.7 1283 1354 28.25% 16.72% 55.03%-0.50 -83.1 31
2002-04-15 Pegasus W 2-027.9 1295 852 80.80% 14.72% 4.47%+2.37 +5.1 38
2002-04-15 @ Glacis United L 0-227.9 852 1295 4.47% 14.72% 80.80%-2.37 -5.1 9
2002-04-16 Gibraltar United D 2-259.7 929 1440 4.28% 14.66% 81.06%-2.42 +7.5 13
2002-04-16 @ Rock Wolves D 2-259.7 1440 929 81.06% 14.66% 4.28%+2.42 -7.5 42
2002-04-20 Glacis United FW49.9 1151 1300 26.14% 16.68% 57.18%-0.60 +0.0 27
2002-04-20 @ Manchester United Eurobet FL49.9 1300 1151 57.18% 16.68% 26.14%+0.60 +0.0 38
2002-04-20 Rock Wolves W 2-027.5 1437 937 82.48% 14.24% 3.28%+2.66 +3.8 41
2002-04-20 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-227.5 937 1437 3.28% 14.24% 82.48%-2.66 -3.8 13
2002-04-22 Lions FC W 7-228.1 1432 806 85.26% 13.08% 1.66%+3.30 +3.0 45
2002-04-22 @ Gibraltar United L 2-728.1 806 1432 1.66% 13.08% 85.26%-3.30 -3.0 10
2002-04-27 Gibraltar United L 1-243.9 1300 1435 27.64% 16.71% 55.65%-0.54 -14.7 38
2002-04-27 @ Glacis United W 2-143.9 1435 1300 55.65% 16.71% 27.64%+0.54 +14.7 48
2002-04-27 St. Josephs L 0-231.5 933 1200 15.06% 16.25% 68.69%-1.20 -16.9 13
2002-04-27 @ Rock Wolves W 2-031.5 1200 933 68.69% 16.25% 15.06%+1.20 +16.9 34
2002-04-29 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-725.5 803 1440 2.17% 13.54% 84.29%-3.06 -5.6 10
2002-04-29 @ Lions FC W 7-125.5 1440 803 84.29% 13.54% 2.17%+3.06 +5.6 44
2002-04-30 Manchester United Eurobet L 0-427.2 847 1151 12.56% 16.07% 71.37%-1.38 -27.0 9
2002-04-30 @ Pegasus W 4-027.2 1151 847 71.37% 16.07% 12.56%+1.38 +27.0 30
2002-05-11 Glacis United D 4-468.3 1446 1285 64.75% 16.45% 18.80%+0.96 -3.1 45
2002-05-11 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 4-468.3 1285 1446 18.80% 16.45% 64.75%-0.96 +3.1 39
2002-05-11 St. Josephs L 1-441.9 1178 1217 40.31% 16.82% 42.87%-0.05 -49.7 30
2002-05-11 @ Manchester United Eurobet W 4-141.9 1217 1178 42.87% 16.82% 40.31%+0.05 +49.7 37
2002-05-13 Pegasus W 3-131.0 1450 820 85.33% 13.04% 1.63%+3.32 +1.6 51
2002-05-13 @ Gibraltar United L 1-331.0 820 1450 1.63% 13.04% 85.33%-3.32 -1.6 9
2002-05-16 Lions FC W 4-348.2 916 797 60.54% 16.59% 22.87%+0.74 +11.5 16
2002-05-16 @ Rock Wolves L 3-448.2 797 916 22.87% 16.59% 60.54%-0.74 -11.5 10
2002-05-29 Pegasus W 5-128.6 1267 818 80.99% 14.68% 4.33%+2.40 +7.9 40
2002-05-29 @ St. Josephs L 1-528.6 818 1267 4.33% 14.68% 80.99%-2.40 -7.9 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-01-19 6.47% @ Pegasus 836 3 St. Josephs 1269 2
2 2002-01-19 7.27% Manchester United Eurobet 1134 1 @ Glacis United 1484 0
3 2001-11-17 9.93% St. Josephs 967 5 @ Manchester United Eurobet 1257 1
4 2001-11-17 14.09% Lions FC 829 1 @ Rock Wolves 1050 0
5 2001-10-06 20.26% Gibraltar United 1184 3 @ Manchester United Eurobet 1329 0
6 2002-03-05 21.17% Lincoln Red Imps 1257 3 @ Glacis United 1393 1
7 2002-01-12 23.54% @ St. Josephs 1159 4 Lincoln Red Imps 1331 0
8 2002-02-16 24.68% Pegasus 856 1 @ Rock Wolves 958 0
9 2002-01-26 29.79% @ Gibraltar United 1327 2 Glacis United 1444 0
10 2002-03-25 30.07% Lions FC 821 3 @ Pegasus 877 2
11 2002-03-26 30.23% @ St. Josephs 1232 2 Glacis United 1346 0
12 2001-10-20 30.77% @ Pegasus 870 5 Lions FC 979 0
13 2001-10-06 31.59% @ St. Josephs 912 2 Lions FC 1015 1
14 2001-12-03 33.18% @ Lions FC 815 3 Pegasus 906 1
15 2001-12-03 33.24% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1269 2 Gibraltar United 1360 0
16 2001-11-03 38.32% @ St. Josephs 922 2 Pegasus 975 0
17 2001-10-20 41.40% @ Gibraltar United 1277 3 Lincoln Red Imps 1308 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-10-20 119.27 @ Pegasus 5 870 30.77% Lions FC 0 979 52.47% 16.75%
2 2001-11-17 113.62 St. Josephs 5 967 9.93% @ Manchester United Eurobet 1 1257 74.26% 15.81%
3 2002-01-12 109.61 @ St. Josephs 4 1159 23.54% Lincoln Red Imps 0 1331 59.85% 16.61%
4 2001-10-06 88.57 Gibraltar United 3 1184 20.26% @ Manchester United Eurobet 0 1329 63.23% 16.51%
5 2002-04-13 83.11 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1354 55.03% St. Josephs 0 1283 28.25% 16.72%
6 2002-03-16 64.36 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1316 62.26% Manchester United Eurobet 0 1180 21.20% 16.54%
7 2002-03-05 52.04 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1257 21.17% @ Glacis United 1 1393 62.29% 16.54%
8 2002-01-26 51.89 @ Gibraltar United 2 1327 29.79% Glacis United 0 1444 53.47% 16.74%
9 2002-03-26 51.49 @ St. Josephs 2 1232 30.23% Glacis United 0 1346 53.02% 16.75%
10 2001-11-24 49.88 St. Josephs 5 1080 64.18% @ Lions FC 0 865 19.35% 16.47%
11 2002-05-11 49.66 St. Josephs 4 1217 42.87% @ Manchester United Eurobet 1 1178 40.31% 16.82%
12 2001-12-03 48.79 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1269 33.24% Gibraltar United 0 1360 49.98% 16.78%
13 2001-11-03 44.38 @ St. Josephs 2 922 38.32% Pegasus 0 975 44.87% 16.81%
14 2001-12-03 42.31 @ Lions FC 3 815 33.18% Pegasus 1 906 50.04% 16.78%
15 2002-04-13 39.94 Manchester United Eurobet 5 1111 68.52% @ Lions FC 0 846 15.21% 16.26%
16 2002-01-19 39.71 Manchester United Eurobet 1 1134 7.27% @ Glacis United 0 1484 77.32% 15.42%
17 2002-03-18 37.98 @ Gibraltar United 3 1375 59.12% St. Josephs 0 1270 24.25% 16.63%
18 2001-10-20 36.18 @ Gibraltar United 3 1277 41.40% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1308 41.78% 16.82%
19 2002-01-19 35.95 @ Pegasus 3 836 6.47% St. Josephs 2 1269 78.27% 15.26%
20 2001-11-17 35.71 Lions FC 1 829 14.09% @ Rock Wolves 0 1050 69.72% 16.19%
21 2001-12-01 32.79 St. Josephs 2 1130 51.85% @ Rock Wolves 0 1025 31.39% 16.76%
22 2002-02-16 30.05 Pegasus 1 856 24.68% @ Rock Wolves 0 958 58.68% 16.64%
23 2002-01-19 29.10 Lincoln Red Imps 6 1222 63.81% @ Rock Wolves 2 1010 19.71% 16.49%
24 2001-10-13 28.45 @ Rock Wolves 4 1033 62.20% Pegasus 1 898 21.25% 16.54%
25 2002-04-30 27.03 Manchester United Eurobet 4 1151 71.37% @ Pegasus 0 847 12.56% 16.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-05-11 68.3 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1446 64.75% Glacis United 4 1285 18.80% 16.45%
2 2001-12-08 66.2 @ St. Josephs 4 1157 26.72% Gibraltar United 4 1301 56.59% 16.69%
3 2001-10-13 63.8 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1310 55.00% Manchester United Eurobet 3 1240 28.28% 16.72%
4 2002-01-19 60.9 @ Pegasus 3 836 6.47% St. Josephs 2 1269 78.27% 15.26%
5 2002-04-16 59.7 @ Rock Wolves 2 929 4.28% Gibraltar United 2 1440 81.06% 14.66%
6 2001-11-03 59.2 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1280 70.78% Rock Wolves 2 1044 13.10% 16.12%
7 2002-03-23 59.0 @ Manchester United Eurobet 2 1116 67.43% Rock Wolves 2 924 16.24% 16.33%
8 2001-12-03 58.9 @ Rock Wolves 2 992 25.89% Manchester United Eurobet 2 1143 57.44% 16.67%
9 2001-10-20 54.7 @ Manchester United Eurobet 1 1242 66.56% Rock Wolves 1 1061 17.08% 16.37%
10 2002-03-25 53.8 Lions FC 3 821 30.07% @ Pegasus 2 877 53.19% 16.74%
11 2002-01-19 53.2 Manchester United Eurobet 1 1134 7.27% @ Glacis United 0 1484 77.32% 15.42%
12 2001-12-01 52.5 @ Manchester United Eurobet 0 1134 10.70% Glacis United 0 1470 73.40% 15.90%
13 2001-11-24 52.2 @ Rock Wolves 0 1014 5.42% Glacis United 0 1481 79.57% 15.01%
14 2002-03-09 52.0 @ Manchester United Eurobet 0 1174 20.10% Gibraltar United 0 1381 63.40% 16.50%
15 2002-03-05 51.5 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1257 21.17% @ Glacis United 1 1393 62.29% 16.54%
16 2002-02-11 51.3 @ Lions FC 0 823 27.26% Rock Wolves 0 961 56.04% 16.70%
17 2001-11-17 50.1 Lions FC 1 829 14.09% @ Rock Wolves 0 1050 69.72% 16.19%
18 2001-11-17 49.9 St. Josephs 5 967 9.93% @ Manchester United Eurobet 1 1257 74.26% 15.81%
19 2002-03-23 49.1 @ Gibraltar United 4 1413 50.36% Lincoln Red Imps 2 1380 32.86% 16.78%
20 2001-10-06 48.8 @ St. Josephs 2 912 31.59% Lions FC 1 1015 51.65% 16.76%
21 2002-05-16 48.2 @ Rock Wolves 4 916 60.54% Lions FC 3 797 22.87% 16.59%
22 2002-02-16 46.9 Pegasus 1 856 24.68% @ Rock Wolves 0 958 58.68% 16.64%
23 2002-03-04 46.8 @ St. Josephs 3 1253 54.23% Manchester United Eurobet 2 1189 29.04% 16.73%
24 2001-12-03 46.6 @ Lions FC 3 815 33.18% Pegasus 1 906 50.04% 16.78%
25 2002-01-26 46.2 @ Gibraltar United 2 1327 29.79% Glacis United 0 1444 53.47% 16.74%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-12-08 22.6 @ Glacis United 5 1477 85.14% Lions FC 0 857 1.72% 13.14%
2 2001-10-27 23.9 @ Glacis United 6 1442 81.14% Pegasus 0 989 4.23% 14.64%
3 2001-11-03 24.1 @ Gibraltar United 8 1336 82.06% Lions FC 0 851 3.57% 14.37%
4 2002-01-19 24.2 Gibraltar United 6 1309 79.43% @ Lions FC 0 846 5.53% 15.04%
5 2002-04-29 25.5 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1440 84.29% @ Lions FC 1 803 2.17% 13.54%
6 2001-10-13 26.7 Glacis United 3 1429 78.52% @ Lions FC 0 990 6.26% 15.22%
7 2002-01-12 26.9 Glacis United 2 1482 84.42% @ Pegasus 0 838 2.10% 13.48%
8 2001-11-24 27.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1256 76.70% Pegasus 0 919 7.79% 15.51%
9 2002-04-30 27.2 Manchester United Eurobet 4 1151 71.37% @ Pegasus 0 847 12.56% 16.07%
10 2002-04-13 27.5 Manchester United Eurobet 5 1111 68.52% @ Lions FC 0 846 15.21% 16.26%
11 2002-04-20 27.5 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1437 82.48% Rock Wolves 0 937 3.28% 14.24%
12 2002-01-26 27.6 @ Manchester United Eurobet 3 1173 74.90% Pegasus 0 872 9.36% 15.74%
13 2002-04-15 27.9 @ Glacis United 2 1295 80.80% Pegasus 0 852 4.47% 14.72%
14 2002-04-22 28.1 @ Gibraltar United 7 1432 85.26% Lions FC 2 806 1.66% 13.08%
15 2002-01-26 28.5 @ St. Josephs 3 1233 71.86% Rock Wolves 0 981 12.10% 16.03%
16 2001-11-10 28.6 Lincoln Red Imps 2 1274 78.47% @ Lions FC 0 836 6.30% 15.22%
17 2002-05-29 28.6 @ St. Josephs 5 1267 80.99% Pegasus 1 818 4.33% 14.68%
18 2001-11-24 28.8 St. Josephs 5 1080 64.18% @ Lions FC 0 865 19.35% 16.47%
19 2002-03-16 29.8 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1316 62.26% Manchester United Eurobet 0 1180 21.20% 16.54%
20 2002-03-05 30.1 @ St. Josephs 1 1267 80.75% Lions FC 0 826 4.51% 14.74%
21 2002-03-12 30.5 @ Glacis United 1 1341 79.81% Rock Wolves 0 927 5.23% 14.96%
22 2002-05-13 31.0 @ Gibraltar United 3 1450 85.33% Pegasus 1 820 1.63% 13.04%
23 2002-04-27 31.5 St. Josephs 2 1200 68.69% @ Rock Wolves 0 933 15.06% 16.25%
24 2002-01-12 32.3 @ Manchester United Eurobet 1 1127 73.32% Lions FC 0 853 10.77% 15.90%
25 2002-04-13 32.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1354 55.03% St. Josephs 0 1283 28.25% 16.72%