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2007-08 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

40 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

38 points · 14th Title

Last Title: 2006-07

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lincoln Red Imps

3.67 points above expected

38 points · 34.33 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Manchester United (Gibraltar)

8.27 points below expected

13 points · 21.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 16 11 5 0 38 48 17 +31 34.33 +3.67
2 Gibraltar United 16 5 7 4 22 23 21 +2 18.39 +3.61
3 Glacis United 16 4 6 6 18 20 29 -9 16.32 +1.68
4 St. Josephs 16 4 3 9 15 18 34 -16 17.04 -2.04
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 16 2 7 7 13 20 28 -8 21.27 -8.27

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps 38 34.33 +3.67
2 Gibraltar United 22 18.39 +3.61
3 Glacis United 18 16.32 +1.68
4 St. Josephs 15 17.04 -2.04
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 13 21.27 -8.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 13 21.27 -8.27
2 St. Josephs 15 17.04 -2.04
3 Glacis United 18 16.32 +1.68
4 Gibraltar United 22 18.39 +3.61
5 Lincoln Red Imps 38 34.33 +3.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Josephs 3 Jan 12 – Jan 21 1 in 66
2 Lincoln Red Imps 6 Oct 27 – Dec 8 1 in 18
3 Glacis United 1 Oct 20 – Oct 20 1 in 3
4 Gibraltar United 1 Oct 8 – Oct 8 1 in 3
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 Dec 1 – Dec 1 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 Dec 10 – Jan 14 1 in 76
2 St. Josephs 3 Mar 1 – Mar 29 1 in 14
3 Glacis United 2 Jan 21 – Mar 8 1 in 5
4 Gibraltar United 2 Nov 24 – Dec 1 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 5 Feb 9 – Apr 19 1 in 17
2 Gibraltar United 5 Oct 8 – Nov 19 1 in 9
3 Lincoln Red Imps 16 Oct 6 – Apr 26 1 in 8
4 St. Josephs 3 Jan 12 – Jan 21 1 in 4
5 Glacis United 3 Mar 15 – Mar 31 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 7 Dec 10 – Mar 31 1 in 15
2 Lincoln Red Imps 2 Feb 9 – Feb 23 1 in 7
3 Gibraltar United 4 Jan 12 – Feb 25 1 in 4
4 St. Josephs 5 Oct 8 – Nov 12 1 in 4
5 Glacis United 4 Jan 19 – Mar 15 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1061 38 +16 11 11.1 -0.1
Gibraltar United 809 22 +16 8 5.9 +2.1
Glacis United 764 18 +5 6 5.2 +0.8
St. Josephs 736 15 -40 1 4.6 -3.6
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 823 13 +5 6 6.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GU GU LRI MU( SJ
Gibraltar United —
1-3-0
5.67
0-2-2
2.53
2-1-1
4.79
2-1-1
5.98
Glacis United
0-3-1
4.86
 —
0-0-4
2.32
1-3-0
4.21
3-0-1
5.39
Lincoln Red Imps
2-2-0
8.43
4-0-0
8.73
 —
2-2-0
7.88
3-1-0
9.01
Manchester United (Gibraltar)
1-1-2
5.73
0-3-1
6.36
0-2-2
2.96
 —
1-1-2
6.70
St. Josephs
1-1-2
4.56
1-0-3
5.12
0-1-3
2.12
2-1-1
3.91
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +7.7
Allowed 0.73 -12.6
Differential 0.94 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%2.50%6.25%5.00%3.75%—22.50%
12.50%20.00%2.50%5.00%1.25%—31.25%
26.25%2.50%5.00%3.75%1.25%1.25%20.00%
35.00%5.00%3.75%5.00%——18.75%
43.75%1.25%1.25%———6.25%
5+——1.25%———1.25%
Total22.50%31.25%20.00%18.75%6.25%1.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.61 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 2.04
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 40

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—12.50%———25.00%
16.25%18.75%6.25%———31.25%
2—6.25%6.25%6.25%——18.75%
36.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%31.25%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.31 +0.12
SD 1.15 1.01 1.31
CV 0.80 0.77 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%——12.50%12.50%—31.25%
16.25%18.75%—12.50%——37.50%
26.25%—6.25%———12.50%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%6.25%31.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.81 -0.56
SD 1.24 1.47 2.28
CV 0.99 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—18.75%————18.75%
2—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
318.75%6.25%6.25%6.25%——37.50%
412.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total31.25%37.50%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.06 +1.94
SD 1.51 0.93 1.69
CV 0.50 0.87 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%12.50%6.25%——25.00%
1—31.25%————31.25%
212.50%—6.25%12.50%6.25%—37.50%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%37.50%18.75%25.00%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.75 -0.50
SD 0.93 1.18 1.37
CV 0.74 0.68 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
1—12.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%—37.50%
212.50%————6.25%18.75%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%25.00%18.75%18.75%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 2.12 -1.00
SD 1.02 1.86 2.16
CV 0.91 0.87 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1061 38 34.33 +3.67 82.0% 26 27 31 35 37 41 45
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 823 13 21.27 -8.27 5.0% 11 13 17 21 25 29 35
Gibraltar United 809 22 18.39 +3.61 83.0% 8 10 15 18 22 26 32
Glacis United 764 18 16.32 +1.68 69.0% 7 9 14 16 19 23 25
St. Josephs 736 15 17.04 -2.04 39.0% 7 9 13 17 21 25 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-10.00%
No Edge
27.50%35.00%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -34.86 Elo pts.
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.23 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd * Longshot: 4th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.0
One-Team Race
12345
Champion Preseason Odds
98%
Lincoln Red Imps, 1st of 5
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
1.00/gm
Runaway
00.671.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.7 * Some Luck: 3.7 to 5.55 * Lucky: 5.55 to 7.4 * Wild Swing: 7.4 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.6 * Close: 0.6 to 0.9 * Off: 0.9 to 1.2 * Way Off: 1.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 5 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 5 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 5 * As Expected: 5 to 8 * Several Outliers: 8 to 11 * Many Outliers: 11 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.51 points
Some Luck
04.6312
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Way Off
00.751.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected
83.00%
Gibraltar United
5090.00%100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
5.00%
Manchester United (Gibraltar)
010.00%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 5
Minimal Outliers
00.55

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Balanced
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 129.04
2.03
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Rare
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.30
Some Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.28 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.28 to 0.42 * Above Noise: 0.42 to 0.57 * Well Above Noise: 0.57 and up.
Probability calibration
0.72
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.32
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.218
Well Within Noise
00.2830.8

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345
Lincoln Red Imps98.00%2.00%———
Gibraltar United1.00%26.00%24.00%30.00%19.00%
Glacis United—12.00%22.00%29.00%37.00%
St. Josephs—14.00%30.00%23.00%33.00%
Manchester United (Gibraltar)1.00%46.00%24.00%18.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Gibraltar United 100%
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 100%
St. Josephs 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2007-10-06 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-032.7 993 879 47.27% 33.79% 18.94%+0.55 +14.1 3
2007-10-06 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-332.7 879 993 18.94% 33.79% 47.27%-0.55 -14.1 0
2007-10-08 Gibraltar United L 1-246.7 772 789 29.09% 37.03% 33.88%-0.36 -6.8 0
2007-10-08 @ St. Josephs W 2-146.7 789 772 33.88% 37.03% 29.09%+0.36 +6.8 3
2007-10-13 Glacis United D 1-147.9 795 761 36.29% 36.80% 26.91%-0.01 -0.4 4
2007-10-13 @ Gibraltar United D 1-147.9 761 795 26.91% 36.80% 36.29%+0.01 +0.4 1
2007-10-15 St. Josephs D 1-148.6 864 765 45.34% 34.55% 20.12%+0.45 -1.1 1
2007-10-15 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 1-148.6 765 864 20.12% 34.55% 45.34%-0.45 +1.1 1
2007-10-20 St. Josephs W 4-037.1 762 766 30.85% 37.11% 32.04%-0.27 +27.3 4
2007-10-20 @ Glacis United L 0-437.1 766 762 32.04% 37.11% 30.85%+0.27 -27.3 1
2007-10-22 Lincoln Red Imps D 3-360.7 795 1007 13.23% 27.18% 59.59%-1.71 +1.3 5
2007-10-22 @ Gibraltar United D 3-360.7 1007 795 59.59% 27.18% 13.23%+1.71 -1.3 4
2007-10-27 Glacis United W 3-136.3 1006 789 60.14% 26.83% 13.03%+1.26 +5.5 7
2007-10-27 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-336.3 789 1006 13.03% 26.83% 60.14%-1.26 -5.5 4
2007-11-03 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-731.5 739 1011 10.82% 22.52% 66.66%-2.14 -8.0 1
2007-11-03 @ St. Josephs W 7-231.5 1011 739 66.66% 22.52% 10.82%+2.14 +8.0 10
2007-11-05 Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 1-148.3 784 863 21.90% 35.44% 42.66%-0.80 +0.9 5
2007-11-05 @ Glacis United D 1-148.3 863 784 42.66% 35.44% 21.90%+0.80 -0.9 2
2007-11-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-443.0 862 1019 16.07% 31.19% 52.74%-1.33 -6.4 2
2007-11-10 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 4-243.0 1019 862 52.74% 31.19% 16.07%+1.33 +6.4 13
2007-11-12 St. Josephs D 0-044.2 796 731 40.72% 35.97% 23.31%+0.21 -0.8 6
2007-11-12 @ Gibraltar United D 0-044.2 731 796 23.31% 35.97% 40.72%-0.21 +0.8 2
2007-11-17 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-043.4 731 856 18.16% 33.20% 48.64%-1.11 +19.1 5
2007-11-17 @ St. Josephs L 0-243.4 856 731 48.64% 33.20% 18.16%+1.11 -19.1 2
2007-11-19 Gibraltar United L 0-337.0 784 795 29.90% 37.08% 33.02%-0.32 -20.0 5
2007-11-19 @ Glacis United W 3-037.0 795 784 33.02% 37.08% 29.90%+0.32 +20.0 9
2007-11-24 Gibraltar United W 2-139.1 1025 815 59.35% 27.33% 13.32%+1.22 +3.3 16
2007-11-24 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-239.1 815 1025 13.32% 27.33% 59.35%-1.22 -3.3 9
2007-11-26 Glacis United L 0-141.9 751 764 29.50% 37.06% 33.44%-0.34 -7.2 5
2007-11-26 @ St. Josephs W 1-041.9 764 751 33.44% 37.06% 29.50%+0.34 +7.2 8
2007-12-01 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-238.4 812 837 28.06% 36.95% 34.99%-0.41 -13.2 9
2007-12-01 @ Gibraltar United W 2-038.4 837 812 34.99% 36.95% 28.06%+0.41 +13.2 5
2007-12-03 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-327.4 772 1029 11.39% 23.71% 64.90%-2.03 -7.7 8
2007-12-03 @ Glacis United W 3-027.4 1029 772 64.90% 23.71% 11.39%+2.03 +7.7 19
2007-12-08 St. Josephs W 4-131.5 1036 743 68.94% 20.97% 10.09%+1.79 +5.5 22
2007-12-08 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-431.5 743 1036 10.09% 20.97% 68.94%-1.79 -5.5 5
2007-12-10 Glacis United L 0-242.5 850 764 43.53% 35.17% 21.30%+0.36 -17.7 5
2007-12-10 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-042.5 764 850 21.30% 35.17% 43.53%-0.36 +17.7 11
2007-12-17 Gibraltar United L 0-143.9 832 799 36.24% 36.81% 26.96%-0.01 -8.3 5
2007-12-17 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 1-043.9 799 832 26.96% 36.81% 36.24%+0.01 +8.3 12
2008-01-12 Gibraltar United W 2-042.0 738 807 22.93% 35.84% 41.24%-0.72 +17.0 8
2008-01-12 @ St. Josephs L 0-242.0 807 738 41.24% 35.84% 22.93%+0.72 -17.0 12
2008-01-14 St. Josephs L 2-355.3 824 755 41.23% 35.84% 22.93%+0.24 -8.1 5
2008-01-14 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-255.3 755 824 22.93% 35.84% 41.23%-0.24 +8.1 11
2008-01-19 Glacis United D 0-043.9 790 782 32.66% 37.09% 30.25%-0.18 -0.1 13
2008-01-19 @ Gibraltar United D 0-043.9 782 790 30.25% 37.09% 32.66%+0.18 +0.1 12
2008-01-21 St. Josephs L 1-345.7 782 763 34.15% 37.01% 28.84%-0.11 -13.0 12
2008-01-21 @ Glacis United W 3-145.7 763 782 28.84% 37.01% 34.15%+0.11 +13.0 14
2008-02-09 Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 2-256.6 1042 816 61.24% 26.13% 12.63%+1.33 -1.7 23
2008-02-09 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 2-256.6 816 1042 12.63% 26.13% 61.24%-1.33 +1.7 6
2008-02-23 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-151.7 790 1040 11.65% 24.25% 64.10%-1.98 +2.4 14
2008-02-23 @ Gibraltar United D 1-151.7 1040 790 64.10% 24.25% 11.65%+1.98 -2.4 24
2008-02-25 Gibraltar United D 1-147.8 818 792 35.07% 36.94% 28.00%-0.07 -0.3 7
2008-02-25 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 1-147.8 792 818 28.00% 36.94% 35.07%+0.07 +0.3 15
2008-03-01 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-327.3 776 1038 11.21% 23.35% 65.44%-2.06 -7.5 14
2008-03-01 @ St. Josephs W 3-027.3 1038 776 65.44% 23.35% 11.21%+2.06 +7.5 27
2008-03-08 Glacis United W 4-026.3 1045 769 67.10% 22.22% 10.67%+1.68 +9.1 30
2008-03-08 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-426.3 769 1045 10.67% 22.22% 67.10%-1.68 -9.1 12
2008-03-08 St. Josephs W 3-143.9 793 768 34.92% 36.95% 28.12%-0.07 +11.5 18
2008-03-08 @ Gibraltar United L 1-343.9 768 793 28.12% 36.95% 34.92%+0.07 -11.5 14
2008-03-15 Gibraltar United D 2-253.4 760 804 25.63% 36.58% 37.79%-0.55 +0.4 13
2008-03-15 @ Glacis United D 2-253.4 804 760 37.79% 36.58% 25.63%+0.55 -0.4 19
2008-03-29 Glacis United L 1-344.8 757 760 31.01% 37.11% 31.88%-0.26 -12.2 14
2008-03-29 @ St. Josephs W 3-144.8 760 757 31.88% 37.11% 31.01%+0.26 +12.2 16
2008-03-29 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-151.4 818 1054 12.17% 25.26% 62.56%-1.89 +2.3 8
2008-03-29 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 1-151.4 1054 818 62.56% 25.26% 12.17%+1.89 -2.3 31
2008-03-31 Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 1-148.0 772 820 25.29% 36.51% 38.21%-0.57 +0.5 17
2008-03-31 @ Glacis United D 1-148.0 820 772 38.21% 36.51% 25.29%+0.57 -0.5 9
2008-04-05 St. Josephs D 1-153.0 1052 745 70.47% 19.92% 9.61%+1.89 -2.8 32
2008-04-05 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 1-153.0 745 1052 9.61% 19.92% 70.47%-1.89 +2.8 15
2008-04-19 Gibraltar United W 3-243.1 1049 804 63.56% 24.60% 11.83%+1.46 +2.7 35
2008-04-19 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 2-343.1 804 1049 11.83% 24.60% 63.56%-1.46 -2.6 19
2008-04-19 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-236.4 748 819 22.69% 35.75% 41.56%-0.74 -11.3 15
2008-04-19 @ St. Josephs W 2-036.4 819 748 41.56% 35.75% 22.69%+0.74 +11.3 12
2008-04-26 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-426.2 773 1052 10.58% 22.02% 67.41%-2.18 -9.0 17
2008-04-26 @ Glacis United W 4-026.2 1052 773 67.41% 22.02% 10.58%+2.18 +9.0 38
2008-04-26 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-253.9 801 831 27.47% 36.88% 35.65%-0.45 +7.3 22
2008-04-26 @ Gibraltar United L 2-353.9 831 801 35.65% 36.88% 27.47%+0.45 -7.3 12
2008-05-03 Glacis United D 3-358.0 823 764 39.88% 36.17% 23.95%+0.17 -0.4 13
2008-05-03 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 3-358.0 764 823 23.95% 36.17% 39.88%-0.17 +0.4 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-11-17 18.16% @ St. Josephs 731 2 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 856 0
2 2007-12-10 21.30% Glacis United 764 2 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 850 0
3 2008-01-12 22.93% @ St. Josephs 738 2 Gibraltar United 807 0
4 2008-01-14 22.93% St. Josephs 755 3 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 824 2
5 2007-12-17 26.96% Gibraltar United 799 1 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 832 0
6 2008-04-26 27.47% @ Gibraltar United 801 3 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 831 2
7 2008-01-21 28.84% St. Josephs 763 3 @ Glacis United 782 1
8 2007-10-20 30.85% @ Glacis United 762 4 St. Josephs 766 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-10-20 27.34 @ Glacis United 4 762 30.85% St. Josephs 0 766 32.04% 37.11%
2 2007-11-19 20.03 Gibraltar United 3 795 33.02% @ Glacis United 0 784 29.90% 37.08%
3 2007-11-17 19.14 @ St. Josephs 2 731 18.16% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 856 48.64% 33.20%
4 2007-12-10 17.70 Glacis United 2 764 21.30% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 850 43.53% 35.17%
5 2008-01-12 17.04 @ St. Josephs 2 738 22.93% Gibraltar United 0 807 41.24% 35.84%
6 2007-10-06 14.12 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 993 47.27% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 879 18.94% 33.79%
7 2007-12-01 13.22 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 837 34.99% @ Gibraltar United 0 812 28.06% 36.95%
8 2008-01-21 13.00 St. Josephs 3 763 28.84% @ Glacis United 1 782 34.15% 37.01%
9 2008-03-29 12.23 Glacis United 3 760 31.88% @ St. Josephs 1 757 31.01% 37.11%
10 2008-03-08 11.47 @ Gibraltar United 3 793 34.92% St. Josephs 1 768 28.12% 36.95%
11 2008-04-19 11.34 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 819 41.56% @ St. Josephs 0 748 22.69% 35.75%
12 2008-03-08 9.15 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1045 67.10% Glacis United 0 769 10.67% 22.22%
13 2008-04-26 9.03 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1052 67.41% @ Glacis United 0 773 10.58% 22.02%
14 2007-12-17 8.27 Gibraltar United 1 799 26.96% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 832 36.24% 36.81%
15 2008-01-14 8.09 St. Josephs 3 755 22.93% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 824 41.23% 35.84%
16 2007-11-03 7.95 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1011 66.66% @ St. Josephs 2 739 10.82% 22.52%
17 2007-12-03 7.68 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1029 64.90% @ Glacis United 0 772 11.39% 23.71%
18 2008-03-01 7.50 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1038 65.44% @ St. Josephs 0 776 11.21% 23.35%
19 2008-04-26 7.32 @ Gibraltar United 3 801 27.47% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 831 35.65% 36.88%
20 2007-11-26 7.25 Glacis United 1 764 33.44% @ St. Josephs 0 751 29.50% 37.06%
21 2007-10-08 6.77 Gibraltar United 2 789 33.88% @ St. Josephs 1 772 29.09% 37.03%
22 2007-11-10 6.37 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1019 52.74% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 862 16.07% 31.19%
23 2007-10-27 5.51 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1006 60.14% Glacis United 1 789 13.03% 26.83%
24 2007-12-08 5.45 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1036 68.94% St. Josephs 1 743 10.09% 20.97%
25 2007-11-24 3.28 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1025 59.35% Gibraltar United 1 815 13.32% 27.33%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-10-22 60.7 @ Gibraltar United 3 795 13.23% Lincoln Red Imps 3 1007 59.59% 27.18%
2 2008-05-03 58.0 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 823 39.88% Glacis United 3 764 23.95% 36.17%
3 2008-02-09 56.6 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1042 61.24% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 816 12.63% 26.13%
4 2008-01-14 55.3 St. Josephs 3 755 22.93% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 824 41.23% 35.84%
5 2008-04-26 53.9 @ Gibraltar United 3 801 27.47% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 831 35.65% 36.88%
6 2008-03-15 53.4 @ Glacis United 2 760 25.63% Gibraltar United 2 804 37.79% 36.58%
7 2008-04-05 53.0 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1052 70.47% St. Josephs 1 745 9.61% 19.92%
8 2008-02-23 51.7 @ Gibraltar United 1 790 11.65% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1040 64.10% 24.25%
9 2008-03-29 51.4 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 818 12.17% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1054 62.56% 25.26%
10 2007-10-15 48.6 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 864 45.34% St. Josephs 1 765 20.12% 34.55%
11 2007-11-05 48.3 @ Glacis United 1 784 21.90% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 863 42.66% 35.44%
12 2008-03-31 48.0 @ Glacis United 1 772 25.29% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 820 38.21% 36.51%
13 2007-10-13 47.9 @ Gibraltar United 1 795 36.29% Glacis United 1 761 26.91% 36.80%
14 2008-02-25 47.8 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 818 35.07% Gibraltar United 1 792 28.00% 36.94%
15 2007-10-08 46.7 Gibraltar United 2 789 33.88% @ St. Josephs 1 772 29.09% 37.03%
16 2008-01-21 45.7 St. Josephs 3 763 28.84% @ Glacis United 1 782 34.15% 37.01%
17 2008-03-29 44.8 Glacis United 3 760 31.88% @ St. Josephs 1 757 31.01% 37.11%
18 2007-11-12 44.2 @ Gibraltar United 0 796 40.72% St. Josephs 0 731 23.31% 35.97%
19 2007-12-17 43.9 Gibraltar United 1 799 26.96% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 832 36.24% 36.81%
20 2008-01-19 43.9 @ Gibraltar United 0 790 32.66% Glacis United 0 782 30.25% 37.09%
21 2008-03-08 43.9 @ Gibraltar United 3 793 34.92% St. Josephs 1 768 28.12% 36.95%
22 2007-11-17 43.4 @ St. Josephs 2 731 18.16% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 856 48.64% 33.20%
23 2008-04-19 43.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1049 63.56% Gibraltar United 2 804 11.83% 24.60%
24 2007-11-10 43.0 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1019 52.74% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 862 16.07% 31.19%
25 2007-12-10 42.5 Glacis United 2 764 21.30% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 850 43.53% 35.17%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-04-26 26.2 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1052 67.41% @ Glacis United 0 773 10.58% 22.02%
2 2008-03-08 26.3 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1045 67.10% Glacis United 0 769 10.67% 22.22%
3 2008-03-01 27.3 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1038 65.44% @ St. Josephs 0 776 11.21% 23.35%
4 2007-12-03 27.4 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1029 64.90% @ Glacis United 0 772 11.39% 23.71%
5 2007-11-03 31.5 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1011 66.66% @ St. Josephs 2 739 10.82% 22.52%
6 2007-12-08 31.5 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1036 68.94% St. Josephs 1 743 10.09% 20.97%
7 2007-10-06 32.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 993 47.27% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 879 18.94% 33.79%
8 2007-10-27 36.3 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1006 60.14% Glacis United 1 789 13.03% 26.83%
9 2008-04-19 36.4 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 819 41.56% @ St. Josephs 0 748 22.69% 35.75%
10 2007-11-19 37.0 Gibraltar United 3 795 33.02% @ Glacis United 0 784 29.90% 37.08%
11 2007-10-20 37.1 @ Glacis United 4 762 30.85% St. Josephs 0 766 32.04% 37.11%
12 2007-12-01 38.4 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 837 34.99% @ Gibraltar United 0 812 28.06% 36.95%
13 2007-11-24 39.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1025 59.35% Gibraltar United 1 815 13.32% 27.33%
14 2007-11-26 41.9 Glacis United 1 764 33.44% @ St. Josephs 0 751 29.50% 37.06%
15 2008-01-12 42.0 @ St. Josephs 2 738 22.93% Gibraltar United 0 807 41.24% 35.84%
16 2007-12-10 42.5 Glacis United 2 764 21.30% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 850 43.53% 35.17%
17 2007-11-10 43.0 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1019 52.74% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 862 16.07% 31.19%
18 2008-04-19 43.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1049 63.56% Gibraltar United 2 804 11.83% 24.60%
19 2007-11-17 43.4 @ St. Josephs 2 731 18.16% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 856 48.64% 33.20%
20 2007-12-17 43.9 Gibraltar United 1 799 26.96% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 832 36.24% 36.81%
21 2008-01-19 43.9 @ Gibraltar United 0 790 32.66% Glacis United 0 782 30.25% 37.09%
22 2008-03-08 43.9 @ Gibraltar United 3 793 34.92% St. Josephs 1 768 28.12% 36.95%
23 2007-11-12 44.2 @ Gibraltar United 0 796 40.72% St. Josephs 0 731 23.31% 35.97%
24 2008-03-29 44.8 Glacis United 3 760 31.88% @ St. Josephs 1 757 31.01% 37.11%
25 2008-01-21 45.7 St. Josephs 3 763 28.84% @ Glacis United 1 782 34.15% 37.01%