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2008-09 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

41 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

31 points · 15th Title

Last Title: 2007-08

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lincoln Red Imps

4.39 points above expected

31 points · 26.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Manchester United (Gibraltar)

5.74 points below expected

7 points · 12.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 12 10 1 1 31 41 16 +25 26.61 +4.39
2 Shamrock 101 11 6 2 3 20 24 19 +5 17.18 +2.82
3 Glacis United 11 6 1 4 19 27 22 +5 15.40 +3.60
4 St. Josephs 12 6 1 5 19 25 22 +3 15.01 +3.99
5 Laguna FC 12 3 4 5 13 22 23 -1 17.49 -4.49
6 Gibraltar United 12 2 2 8 8 13 28 -15 12.57 -4.57
7 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 12 2 1 9 7 11 33 -22 12.74 -5.74

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps 31 26.61 +4.39
2 St. Josephs 19 15.01 +3.99
3 Glacis United 19 15.40 +3.60
4 Shamrock 101 20 17.18 +2.82
5 Laguna FC 13 17.49 -4.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 7 12.74 -5.74
2 Gibraltar United 8 12.57 -4.57
3 Laguna FC 13 17.49 -4.49
4 Shamrock 101 20 17.18 +2.82
5 Glacis United 19 15.40 +3.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lincoln Red Imps 9 Feb 7 – Apr 14 1 in 46
2 Glacis United 3 Feb 3 – Feb 28 1 in 15
3 St. Josephs 2 Mar 10 – Mar 16 1 in 6
4 Shamrock 101 3 May 5 – May 13 1 in 6
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 Feb 17 – Feb 17 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gibraltar United 5 Feb 14 – Mar 17 1 in 38
2 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 5 Apr 6 – May 13 1 in 20
3 Glacis United 3 Mar 10 – Mar 23 1 in 9
4 Lincoln Red Imps 1 Apr 28 – Apr 28 1 in 7
5 Laguna FC 2 Jan 31 – Feb 3 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glacis United 4 Mar 31 – Apr 28 1 in 14
2 Gibraltar United 2 Apr 15 – Apr 20 1 in 9
3 Laguna FC 5 Feb 24 – Apr 6 1 in 8
4 Lincoln Red Imps 10 Feb 7 – Apr 20 1 in 8
5 St. Josephs 3 Feb 24 – Mar 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Laguna FC 5 Feb 16 – Mar 31 1 in 23
2 Gibraltar United 7 Feb 14 – Apr 8 1 in 17
3 Lincoln Red Imps 2 Apr 20 – Apr 28 1 in 17
4 Glacis United 4 Mar 10 – Mar 31 1 in 6
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 5 Apr 6 – May 13 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1063 31 -23 10 11.6 -1.6
Shamrock 101 906 20 +4 9 8.1 +0.9
Glacis United 890 19 +96 10 7.0 +3.0
St. Josephs 869 19 +54 9 6.0 +3.0
Laguna FC 852 13 +9 7 7.0 +0.0
Gibraltar United 705 8 -2 4 4.4 -0.4
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 655 7 -143 0 5.0 -5.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GU GU LAG LRI MU( S1 SJ
Gibraltar United —
0-0-2
2.59
1-1-0
2.17
0-1-1
0.97
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
2.39
Glacis United
2-0-0
3.10
 —
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
1.28
2-0-0
3.36
0-0-1
1.33
0-0-2
3.22
Laguna FC
0-1-1
3.53
0-1-1
3.22
 —
0-0-2
1.49
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
3.26
Lincoln Red Imps
1-1-0
4.75
1-0-1
4.42
2-0-0
4.21
 —
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
3.96
2-0-0
4.23
Manchester United (Gibraltar)
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
2.55
0-0-2
0.93
 —
0-1-1
1.82
1-0-1
2.82
Shamrock 101
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-0
1.51
1-1-0
2.74
0-0-2
1.74
1-1-0
3.88
 —
1-0-1
3.21
St. Josephs
2-0-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.47
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.49
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.96 +8.2
Allowed 0.85 -13.5
Differential 0.96 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.66%7.32%1.22%3.66%2.44%18.29%
13.66%2.44%7.32%3.66%3.66%2.44%23.17%
27.32%7.32%7.32%3.66%—1.22%26.83%
31.22%3.66%3.66%4.88%1.22%—14.63%
43.66%3.66%—1.22%—1.22%9.76%
5+2.44%2.44%1.22%—1.22%—7.32%
Total18.29%23.17%26.83%14.63%9.76%7.32%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.99 1.99 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.40
CV 0.78 0.78 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 41

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%16.67%——8.33%33.33%
1——16.67%8.33%—8.33%33.33%
28.33%8.33%8.33%———25.00%
3———8.33%——8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total8.33%16.67%41.67%16.67%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 2.33 -1.25
SD 1.00 1.50 1.96
CV 0.92 0.64 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——18.18%——9.09%27.27%
2—18.18%————18.18%
3—9.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%—36.36%
49.09%9.09%————18.18%
5+———————
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%9.09%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 2.00 +0.45
SD 1.13 1.48 2.21
CV 0.46 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——8.33%8.33%——16.67%
1—8.33%16.67%———25.00%
2——16.67%8.33%——25.00%
3—8.33%8.33%8.33%——25.00%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———————
Total8.33%16.67%50.00%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.92 -0.08
SD 1.27 0.90 1.83
CV 0.69 0.47 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
18.33%———8.33%—16.67%
2—8.33%————8.33%
38.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%——33.33%
48.33%8.33%————16.67%
5+16.67%———8.33%—25.00%
Total41.67%25.00%8.33%8.33%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.42 1.33 +2.08
SD 1.73 1.56 2.27
CV 0.51 1.17 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%—25.00%—41.67%
18.33%——8.33%8.33%—25.00%
28.33%—8.33%8.33%—8.33%33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%—25.00%16.67%33.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 2.75 -1.83
SD 0.90 1.60 1.99
CV 0.98 0.58 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%——9.09%18.18%
19.09%——9.09%——18.18%
29.09%9.09%18.18%———36.36%
3———————
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.73 +0.45
SD 1.78 1.42 2.66
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%————16.67%
1—8.33%——8.33%—16.67%
225.00%8.33%—8.33%——41.67%
3———————
4———8.33%—8.33%16.67%
5+—8.33%————8.33%
Total25.00%41.67%—16.67%8.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 1.83 +0.25
SD 1.56 2.08 2.14
CV 0.75 1.14 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1063 31 26.61 +4.39 88.0% 15 19 24 27 29 33 36
Shamrock 101 906 20 17.18 +2.82 73.0% 6 9 13 17 21 24 30
Glacis United 890 19 15.40 +3.60 82.0% 6 9 13 15 18 22 28
St. Josephs 869 19 15.01 +3.99 86.0% 2 7 12 15 17 23 27
Laguna FC 852 13 17.49 -4.49 18.0% 5 10 14 17 21 25 28
Gibraltar United 705 8 12.57 -4.57 16.0% 3 7 9 13 15 18 27
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 655 7 12.74 -5.74 11.0% 4 6 10 13 16 19 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.44%
Slight Edge
41.46%14.63%43.90%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -8.48 Elo pts.
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
12347
Champion Preseason Odds
86%
Lincoln Red Imps, 1st of 7
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.92/gm
Runaway
00.511.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.47 * Some Luck: 3.47 to 5.21 * Lucky: 5.21 to 6.95 * Wild Swing: 6.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.02 * Close: 1.02 to 1.53 * Off: 1.53 to 2.05 * Way Off: 2.05 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 7 * As Expected: 7 to 11.2 * Several Outliers: 11.2 to 15.4 * Many Outliers: 15.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.31 points
Some Luck
04.3411
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.14
Close
01.283
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 92.86%
88.00%
Lincoln Red Imps
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
11.00%
Manchester United (Gibraltar)
07.14%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 7
Minimal Outliers
00.77

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Balanced
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 134.96
1.71
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Even
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Occasional
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.25 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.25 to 0.37 * Above Noise: 0.37 to 0.49 * Well Above Noise: 0.49 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.35
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.161
Well Within Noise
00.2460.6

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567
Lincoln Red Imps86.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%———
Shamrock 1013.00%31.00%23.00%15.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%
Glacis United5.00%10.00%18.00%26.00%14.00%18.00%9.00%
St. Josephs2.00%11.00%21.00%25.00%17.00%7.00%17.00%
Laguna FC3.00%36.00%14.00%11.00%17.00%10.00%9.00%
Gibraltar United1.00%3.00%7.00%9.00%23.00%26.00%31.00%
Manchester United (Gibraltar)—3.00%11.00%12.00%20.00%27.00%27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Gibraltar United 100%
Glacis United 100%
Laguna FC 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 100%
Shamrock 101 100%
St. Josephs 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-01-26 St. Josephs L 0-239.1 836 791 48.59% 15.50% 35.92%+0.25 -32.7 0
2009-01-26 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-039.1 791 836 35.92% 15.50% 48.59%-0.25 +32.7 3
2009-01-31 Laguna FC W 2-146.1 829 863 37.48% 15.51% 47.01%-0.29 +15.9 3
2009-01-31 @ Gibraltar United L 1-246.1 863 829 47.01% 15.51% 37.48%+0.29 -15.9 0
2009-02-02 Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 2-259.4 863 803 50.51% 15.48% 34.01%+0.35 -1.0 1
2009-02-02 @ Shamrock 101 D 2-259.4 803 863 34.01% 15.48% 50.51%-0.35 +1.0 1
2009-02-03 Glacis United L 1-246.4 847 806 48.04% 15.50% 36.46%+0.23 -16.2 0
2009-02-03 @ Laguna FC W 2-146.4 806 847 36.46% 15.50% 48.04%-0.23 +16.2 3
2009-02-07 Lincoln Red Imps L 4-741.3 823 953 25.45% 15.33% 59.22%-0.96 -17.4 3
2009-02-07 @ St. Josephs W 7-441.3 953 823 59.22% 15.33% 25.45%+0.96 +17.4 3
2009-02-09 Laguna FC L 1-340.9 804 831 38.50% 15.51% 45.99%-0.24 -23.2 1
2009-02-09 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-140.9 831 804 45.99% 15.51% 38.50%+0.24 +23.2 3
2009-02-10 Shamrock 101 W 5-028.6 971 862 56.79% 15.39% 27.83%+0.70 +47.1 6
2009-02-10 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-528.6 862 971 27.83% 15.39% 56.79%-0.70 -47.1 1
2009-02-14 Gibraltar United W 3-143.0 822 845 38.97% 15.52% 45.52%-0.22 +26.7 6
2009-02-14 @ Glacis United L 1-343.0 845 822 45.52% 15.52% 38.97%+0.22 -26.7 3
2009-02-16 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-343.5 854 1018 21.87% 15.22% 62.91%-1.19 -7.7 3
2009-02-16 @ Laguna FC W 3-243.5 1018 854 62.91% 15.22% 21.87%+1.19 +7.7 9
2009-02-17 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-238.8 818 781 47.47% 15.51% 37.02%+0.20 -32.0 3
2009-02-17 @ Gibraltar United W 2-038.8 781 818 37.02% 15.51% 47.47%-0.20 +32.0 4
2009-02-21 St. Josephs W 4-139.1 815 806 43.46% 15.52% 41.02%+0.00 +34.6 4
2009-02-21 @ Shamrock 101 L 1-439.1 806 815 41.02% 15.52% 43.46%+0.00 -34.6 3
2009-02-23 Gibraltar United W 5-024.7 1025 786 69.77% 14.88% 15.35%+1.60 +27.3 12
2009-02-23 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-524.7 786 1025 15.35% 14.88% 69.77%-1.60 -27.2 3
2009-02-24 Laguna FC D 1-154.6 771 846 32.04% 15.46% 52.51%-0.58 +1.7 4
2009-02-24 @ St. Josephs D 1-154.6 846 771 52.51% 15.46% 32.04%+0.58 -1.7 4
2009-02-28 Glacis United L 2-348.2 813 849 37.24% 15.51% 47.25%-0.30 -12.3 4
2009-02-28 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-248.2 849 813 47.25% 15.51% 37.24%+0.30 +12.3 9
2009-03-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-237.6 861 1053 19.24% 15.10% 65.65%-1.39 -7.2 9
2009-03-10 @ Glacis United W 2-137.6 1053 861 65.65% 15.10% 19.24%+1.39 +7.2 15
2009-03-10 St. Josephs L 1-537.1 759 773 40.20% 15.52% 44.28%-0.16 -43.9 3
2009-03-10 @ Gibraltar United W 5-137.1 773 759 44.28% 15.52% 40.20%+0.16 +43.9 7
2009-03-14 Shamrock 101 D 2-259.3 844 849 41.56% 15.52% 42.91%-0.09 +0.1 5
2009-03-14 @ Laguna FC D 2-259.3 849 844 42.91% 15.52% 41.56%+0.09 -0.1 5
2009-03-16 Glacis United W 2-146.2 817 854 37.08% 15.51% 47.42%-0.31 +16.0 10
2009-03-16 @ St. Josephs L 1-246.2 854 817 47.42% 15.51% 37.08%+0.31 -16.0 9
2009-03-17 Gibraltar United W 1-035.4 849 715 59.70% 15.32% 24.98%+0.87 +9.7 8
2009-03-17 @ Shamrock 101 L 0-135.4 715 849 24.98% 15.32% 59.70%-0.87 -9.7 3
2009-03-21 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 4-024.3 1060 801 71.30% 14.77% 13.93%+1.74 +20.2 18
2009-03-21 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-424.3 801 1060 13.93% 14.77% 71.30%-1.74 -20.2 4
2009-03-23 Gibraltar United D 2-259.4 845 705 60.27% 15.30% 24.42%+0.91 -2.2 6
2009-03-23 @ Laguna FC D 2-259.4 705 845 24.42% 15.30% 60.27%-0.91 +2.2 4
2009-03-23 Glacis United W 5-136.8 859 838 45.24% 15.52% 39.24%+0.09 +43.0 11
2009-03-23 @ Shamrock 101 L 1-536.8 838 859 39.24% 15.52% 45.24%-0.09 -43.0 9
2009-03-23 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-142.8 833 781 49.57% 15.49% 34.94%+0.30 -17.6 10
2009-03-23 @ St. Josephs W 1-042.8 781 833 34.94% 15.49% 49.57%-0.30 +17.6 7
2009-03-31 Laguna FC D 3-364.1 795 842 35.59% 15.50% 48.91%-0.39 +0.7 10
2009-03-31 @ Glacis United D 3-364.1 842 795 48.91% 15.50% 35.59%+0.39 -0.7 7
2009-04-01 St. Josephs W 1-031.8 1080 815 71.70% 14.74% 13.56%+1.77 +5.5 21
2009-04-01 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-131.8 815 1080 13.56% 14.74% 71.70%-1.77 -5.5 10
2009-04-06 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 4-031.1 842 798 48.34% 15.50% 36.16%+0.24 +48.1 10
2009-04-06 @ Laguna FC L 0-431.1 798 842 36.16% 15.50% 48.34%-0.24 -48.1 7
2009-04-07 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-335.2 902 1086 19.97% 15.14% 64.89%-1.33 -12.9 11
2009-04-07 @ Shamrock 101 W 3-135.2 1086 902 64.89% 15.14% 19.97%+1.33 +12.9 24
2009-04-08 Glacis United L 1-241.1 707 795 30.38% 15.43% 54.19%-0.67 -10.9 4
2009-04-08 @ Gibraltar United W 2-141.1 795 707 54.19% 15.43% 30.38%+0.67 +10.9 13
2009-04-14 Laguna FC W 3-026.9 1099 890 67.20% 15.03% 17.77%+1.39 +19.4 27
2009-04-14 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-326.9 890 1099 17.77% 15.03% 67.20%-1.39 -19.4 10
2009-04-15 Gibraltar United L 0-239.5 750 697 49.72% 15.49% 34.79%+0.31 -33.4 7
2009-04-15 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-039.5 697 750 34.79% 15.49% 49.72%-0.31 +33.4 7
2009-04-18 Shamrock 101 W 2-040.5 810 889 31.49% 15.45% 53.06%-0.61 +35.4 13
2009-04-18 @ St. Josephs L 0-240.5 889 810 53.06% 15.45% 31.49%+0.61 -35.4 11
2009-04-20 Lincoln Red Imps D 3-364.6 730 1118 7.25% 13.90% 78.85%-2.75 +4.0 8
2009-04-20 @ Gibraltar United D 3-364.6 1118 730 78.85% 13.90% 7.25%+2.75 -4.0 28
2009-04-21 St. Josephs W 3-248.6 870 845 45.79% 15.52% 38.69%+0.11 +12.7 13
2009-04-21 @ Laguna FC L 2-348.6 845 870 38.69% 15.52% 45.79%-0.11 -12.8 13
2009-04-25 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 4-029.3 806 717 54.39% 15.43% 30.17%+0.56 +41.1 16
2009-04-25 @ Glacis United L 0-429.3 717 806 30.17% 15.43% 54.39%-0.56 -41.1 7
2009-04-27 Gibraltar United W 2-033.2 833 734 55.53% 15.41% 29.06%+0.62 +21.0 16
2009-04-27 @ St. Josephs L 0-233.2 734 833 29.06% 15.41% 55.53%-0.62 -21.0 8
2009-04-28 Glacis United L 1-448.1 1114 847 71.84% 14.73% 13.43%+1.79 -58.3 28
2009-04-28 @ Lincoln Red Imps W 4-148.1 847 1114 13.43% 14.73% 71.84%-1.79 +58.3 19
2009-05-05 Laguna FC W 2-038.5 853 883 38.05% 15.51% 46.44%-0.26 +31.4 14
2009-05-05 @ Shamrock 101 L 0-238.5 883 853 46.44% 15.51% 38.05%+0.26 -31.4 13
2009-05-05 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-428.6 676 1056 7.56% 13.96% 78.48%-2.69 -7.1 7
2009-05-05 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 4-128.6 1056 676 78.48% 13.96% 7.56%+2.69 +7.1 31
2009-05-05 Shamrock 101 L 1-238.2 713 885 21.11% 15.19% 63.71%-1.25 -7.8 8
2009-05-05 @ Gibraltar United W 2-138.2 885 713 63.71% 15.19% 21.11%+1.25 +7.8 17
2009-05-05 St. Josephs L 3-455.8 906 853 49.53% 15.49% 34.97%+0.30 -15.4 19
2009-05-05 @ Glacis United W 4-355.8 853 906 34.97% 15.49% 49.53%-0.30 +15.4 19
2009-05-13 Shamrock 101 L 2-535.5 669 893 16.52% 14.96% 68.53%-1.61 -13.2 7
2009-05-13 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 5-235.5 893 669 68.53% 14.96% 16.52%+1.61 +13.2 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-04-28 13.43% Glacis United 847 4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1114 1
2 2009-04-18 31.49% @ St. Josephs 810 2 Shamrock 101 889 0
3 2009-04-15 34.79% Gibraltar United 697 2 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 750 0
4 2009-03-23 34.94% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 781 1 @ St. Josephs 833 0
5 2009-05-05 34.97% St. Josephs 853 4 @ Glacis United 906 3
6 2009-01-26 35.92% St. Josephs 791 2 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 836 0
7 2009-02-03 36.46% Glacis United 806 2 @ Laguna FC 847 1
8 2009-02-17 37.02% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 781 2 @ Gibraltar United 818 0
9 2009-03-16 37.08% @ St. Josephs 817 2 Glacis United 854 1
10 2009-01-31 37.48% @ Gibraltar United 829 2 Laguna FC 863 1
11 2009-05-05 38.05% @ Shamrock 101 853 2 Laguna FC 883 0
12 2009-02-14 38.97% @ Glacis United 822 3 Gibraltar United 845 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-04-28 58.34 Glacis United 4 847 13.43% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1114 71.84% 14.73%
2 2009-04-06 48.11 @ Laguna FC 4 842 48.34% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 798 36.16% 15.50%
3 2009-02-10 47.14 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 971 56.79% Shamrock 101 0 862 27.83% 15.39%
4 2009-03-10 43.89 St. Josephs 5 773 44.28% @ Gibraltar United 1 759 40.20% 15.52%
5 2009-03-23 43.00 @ Shamrock 101 5 859 45.24% Glacis United 1 838 39.24% 15.52%
6 2009-04-25 41.09 @ Glacis United 4 806 54.39% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 717 30.17% 15.43%
7 2009-04-18 35.42 @ St. Josephs 2 810 31.49% Shamrock 101 0 889 53.06% 15.45%
8 2009-02-21 34.59 @ Shamrock 101 4 815 43.46% St. Josephs 1 806 41.02% 15.52%
9 2009-04-15 33.38 Gibraltar United 2 697 34.79% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 750 49.72% 15.49%
10 2009-01-26 32.69 St. Josephs 2 791 35.92% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 836 48.59% 15.50%
11 2009-02-17 32.03 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 781 37.02% @ Gibraltar United 0 818 47.47% 15.51%
12 2009-05-05 31.40 @ Shamrock 101 2 853 38.05% Laguna FC 0 883 46.44% 15.51%
13 2009-02-23 27.26 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1025 69.77% Gibraltar United 0 786 15.35% 14.88%
14 2009-02-14 26.73 @ Glacis United 3 822 38.97% Gibraltar United 1 845 45.52% 15.52%
15 2009-02-09 23.17 Laguna FC 3 831 45.99% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 804 38.50% 15.51%
16 2009-04-27 20.95 @ St. Josephs 2 833 55.53% Gibraltar United 0 734 29.06% 15.41%
17 2009-03-21 20.17 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1060 71.30% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 801 13.93% 14.77%
18 2009-04-14 19.44 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1099 67.20% Laguna FC 0 890 17.77% 15.03%
19 2009-03-23 17.65 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 781 34.94% @ St. Josephs 0 833 49.57% 15.49%
20 2009-02-07 17.41 Lincoln Red Imps 7 953 59.22% @ St. Josephs 4 823 25.45% 15.33%
21 2009-02-03 16.18 Glacis United 2 806 36.46% @ Laguna FC 1 847 48.04% 15.50%
22 2009-03-16 16.00 @ St. Josephs 2 817 37.08% Glacis United 1 854 47.42% 15.51%
23 2009-01-31 15.88 @ Gibraltar United 2 829 37.48% Laguna FC 1 863 47.01% 15.51%
24 2009-05-05 15.40 St. Josephs 4 853 34.97% @ Glacis United 3 906 49.53% 15.49%
25 2009-05-13 13.25 Shamrock 101 5 893 68.53% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 669 16.52% 14.96%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-04-20 64.6 @ Gibraltar United 3 730 7.25% Lincoln Red Imps 3 1118 78.85% 13.90%
2 2009-03-31 64.1 @ Glacis United 3 795 35.59% Laguna FC 3 842 48.91% 15.50%
3 2009-02-02 59.4 @ Shamrock 101 2 863 50.51% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 803 34.01% 15.48%
4 2009-03-23 59.4 @ Laguna FC 2 845 60.27% Gibraltar United 2 705 24.42% 15.30%
5 2009-03-14 59.3 @ Laguna FC 2 844 41.56% Shamrock 101 2 849 42.91% 15.52%
6 2009-05-05 55.8 St. Josephs 4 853 34.97% @ Glacis United 3 906 49.53% 15.49%
7 2009-02-24 54.6 @ St. Josephs 1 771 32.04% Laguna FC 1 846 52.51% 15.46%
8 2009-04-21 48.6 @ Laguna FC 3 870 45.79% St. Josephs 2 845 38.69% 15.52%
9 2009-02-28 48.2 Glacis United 3 849 47.25% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 813 37.24% 15.51%
10 2009-04-28 48.1 Glacis United 4 847 13.43% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1114 71.84% 14.73%
11 2009-02-03 46.4 Glacis United 2 806 36.46% @ Laguna FC 1 847 48.04% 15.50%
12 2009-03-16 46.2 @ St. Josephs 2 817 37.08% Glacis United 1 854 47.42% 15.51%
13 2009-01-31 46.1 @ Gibraltar United 2 829 37.48% Laguna FC 1 863 47.01% 15.51%
14 2009-02-16 43.5 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1018 62.91% @ Laguna FC 2 854 21.87% 15.22%
15 2009-02-14 43.0 @ Glacis United 3 822 38.97% Gibraltar United 1 845 45.52% 15.52%
16 2009-03-23 42.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 781 34.94% @ St. Josephs 0 833 49.57% 15.49%
17 2009-02-07 41.3 Lincoln Red Imps 7 953 59.22% @ St. Josephs 4 823 25.45% 15.33%
18 2009-04-08 41.1 Glacis United 2 795 54.19% @ Gibraltar United 1 707 30.38% 15.43%
19 2009-02-09 40.9 Laguna FC 3 831 45.99% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 804 38.50% 15.51%
20 2009-04-18 40.5 @ St. Josephs 2 810 31.49% Shamrock 101 0 889 53.06% 15.45%
21 2009-04-15 39.5 Gibraltar United 2 697 34.79% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 750 49.72% 15.49%
22 2009-01-26 39.1 St. Josephs 2 791 35.92% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 836 48.59% 15.50%
23 2009-02-21 39.1 @ Shamrock 101 4 815 43.46% St. Josephs 1 806 41.02% 15.52%
24 2009-02-17 38.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 781 37.02% @ Gibraltar United 0 818 47.47% 15.51%
25 2009-05-05 38.5 @ Shamrock 101 2 853 38.05% Laguna FC 0 883 46.44% 15.51%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-03-21 24.3 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1060 71.30% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 801 13.93% 14.77%
2 2009-02-23 24.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1025 69.77% Gibraltar United 0 786 15.35% 14.88%
3 2009-04-14 26.9 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1099 67.20% Laguna FC 0 890 17.77% 15.03%
4 2009-02-10 28.6 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 971 56.79% Shamrock 101 0 862 27.83% 15.39%
5 2009-05-05 28.6 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1056 78.48% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 676 7.56% 13.96%
6 2009-04-25 29.3 @ Glacis United 4 806 54.39% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 717 30.17% 15.43%
7 2009-04-06 31.1 @ Laguna FC 4 842 48.34% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 798 36.16% 15.50%
8 2009-04-01 31.8 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1080 71.70% St. Josephs 0 815 13.56% 14.74%
9 2009-04-27 33.2 @ St. Josephs 2 833 55.53% Gibraltar United 0 734 29.06% 15.41%
10 2009-04-07 35.2 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1086 64.89% @ Shamrock 101 1 902 19.97% 15.14%
11 2009-03-17 35.4 @ Shamrock 101 1 849 59.70% Gibraltar United 0 715 24.98% 15.32%
12 2009-05-13 35.5 Shamrock 101 5 893 68.53% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 669 16.52% 14.96%
13 2009-03-23 36.8 @ Shamrock 101 5 859 45.24% Glacis United 1 838 39.24% 15.52%
14 2009-03-10 37.1 St. Josephs 5 773 44.28% @ Gibraltar United 1 759 40.20% 15.52%
15 2009-03-10 37.6 Lincoln Red Imps 2 1053 65.65% @ Glacis United 1 861 19.24% 15.10%
16 2009-05-05 38.2 Shamrock 101 2 885 63.71% @ Gibraltar United 1 713 21.11% 15.19%
17 2009-05-05 38.5 @ Shamrock 101 2 853 38.05% Laguna FC 0 883 46.44% 15.51%
18 2009-02-17 38.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 781 37.02% @ Gibraltar United 0 818 47.47% 15.51%
19 2009-01-26 39.1 St. Josephs 2 791 35.92% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 836 48.59% 15.50%
20 2009-02-21 39.1 @ Shamrock 101 4 815 43.46% St. Josephs 1 806 41.02% 15.52%
21 2009-04-15 39.5 Gibraltar United 2 697 34.79% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 750 49.72% 15.49%
22 2009-04-18 40.5 @ St. Josephs 2 810 31.49% Shamrock 101 0 889 53.06% 15.45%
23 2009-02-09 40.9 Laguna FC 3 831 45.99% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 804 38.50% 15.51%
24 2009-04-08 41.1 Glacis United 2 795 54.19% @ Gibraltar United 1 707 30.38% 15.43%
25 2009-02-07 41.3 Lincoln Red Imps 7 953 59.22% @ St. Josephs 4 823 25.45% 15.33%