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2025-26 Gibraltar Football League Season

147 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

59 points · 30th Title

Last Title: 2024-25

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Mons Calpe S.C.

9.34 points above expected

44 points · 34.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hound Dogs

11.02 points below expected

8 points · 19.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 22 19 2 1 59 76 14 +62 54.59 +4.41
2 St. Joseph's 22 19 1 2 58 90 10 +80 53.26 +4.74
3 Europa 22 15 1 6 46 43 17 +26 41.29 +4.71
4 Mons Calpe S.C. 22 14 2 6 44 52 24 +28 34.66 +9.34
5 Lions Gibraltar 22 12 2 8 38 47 34 +13 33.02 +4.98
6 Lynx 22 10 4 8 34 34 33 +1 32.82 +1.18
7 FCB Magpies 22 8 4 10 28 25 32 -7 28.78 -0.78
8 Europa Point 22 7 1 14 22 31 61 -30 16.68 +5.32
9 Manchester 62 22 5 2 15 17 28 79 -51 16.05 +0.95
10 College 1975 22 3 5 14 14 15 45 -30 16.70 -2.70
11 Glacis United 22 3 3 16 12 18 57 -39 19.51 -7.51
12 Hound Dogs 22 1 5 16 8 10 63 -53 19.02 -11.02
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps 5 4 1 0 13 10 3 +7 80.45 -67.45
2 Mons Calpe S.C. 5 4 0 1 12 13 9 +4 58.70 -46.70
3 Europa 5 2 1 2 7 8 6 +2 56.55 -49.55
4 St. Joseph's 5 1 2 2 5 6 7 -1 79.89 -74.89
5 Lions Gibraltar 5 1 2 2 5 6 10 -4 46.17 -41.17
6 Lynx 5 0 0 5 0 4 12 -8 43.25 -43.25

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mons Calpe S.C. 44 34.66 +9.34
2 Europa Point 22 16.68 +5.32
3 Lions Gibraltar 38 33.02 +4.98
4 St. Joseph's 58 53.26 +4.74
5 Europa 46 41.29 +4.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hound Dogs 8 19.02 -11.02
2 Glacis United 12 19.51 -7.51
3 College 1975 14 16.70 -2.70
4 FCB Magpies 28 28.78 -0.78
5 Manchester 62 17 16.05 +0.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 64
2 Europa Point 3 Nov 22 – Dec 7 1 in 41
3 Lions Gibraltar 4 Sep 21 – Oct 20 1 in 27
4 College 1975 1 Nov 2 – Nov 2 1 in 15
5 St. Joseph's 9 Nov 30 – Feb 7 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester 62 7 Oct 27 – Dec 15 1 in 697
2 Hound Dogs 7 Nov 9 – Dec 19 1 in 21
3 St. Joseph's 1 Sep 13 – Sep 13 1 in 20
4 Lions Gibraltar 2 Dec 1 – Dec 7 1 in 14
5 Mons Calpe S.C. 2 Dec 6 – Dec 12 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Joseph's 16 Sep 19 – Feb 7 1 in 13
2 Europa Point 3 Nov 22 – Dec 7 1 in 13
3 FCB Magpies 5 Jan 10 – Feb 20 1 in 11
4 Lions Gibraltar 4 Sep 21 – Oct 20 1 in 9
5 Europa 5 Jan 26 – Mar 2 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hound Dogs 20 Sep 15 – Mar 8 1 in 271
2 Manchester 62 7 Oct 27 – Dec 15 1 in 56
3 Lynx 5 Sep 14 – Oct 19 1 in 50
4 College 1975 9 Aug 16 – Oct 25 1 in 10
5 FCB Magpies 5 Aug 23 – Sep 24 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1725 69 +49 13 11.2 +1.8
St. Joseph's 1623 63 -70 5 10.8 -5.8
Mons Calpe S.C. 1452 56 +29 12 8.9 +3.1
Europa 1503 53 +86 7 4.6 +2.4
Lions Gibraltar 1267 43 -14 5 3.5 +1.5
Lynx 1231 34 -80 0 3.9 -3.9
FCB Magpies 1225 28 +71 8 6.7 +1.3
Europa Point 1036 22 -41 6 5.8 +0.2
Manchester 62 874 17 -61 1 2.8 -1.8
College 1975 922 14 -28 1 3.3 -2.3
Glacis United 919 12 -76 1 3.7 -2.7
Hound Dogs 732 8 -18 1 1.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team C1 EUR EP FM GU HD LRI LG LYN M6 MCS SJ
College 1975 —
0-0-2
0.55
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
2.42
0-0-2
0.30
0-0-2
1.12
0-2-0
0.91
1-1-0
1.96
0-0-2
2.18
0-0-2
0.37
Europa
2-0-0
5.19
 —
2-0-0
4.90
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
4.99
2-0-0
5.35
0-1-1
1.22
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
4.29
1-0-1
3.47
0-0-2
1.44
Europa Point
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
0.84
 —
1-0-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
0.34
1-0-1
1.34
0-1-1
1.47
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
0.80
0-0-2
0.39
FCB Magpies
1-0-1
4.32
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
3.98
 —
2-0-0
3.87
2-0-0
4.33
0-0-2
0.61
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.37
0-0-2
0.75
Glacis United
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
0.75
1-0-1
3.35
0-0-2
1.86
 —
0-2-0
3.33
0-0-2
0.32
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
1.30
1-0-1
1.73
0-0-2
1.30
0-0-2
0.38
Hound Dogs
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-2
0.40
1-0-1
3.90
0-0-2
1.40
0-2-0
2.40
 —
0-0-2
0.24
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.95
0-1-1
1.41
0-0-2
0.38
Lincoln Red Imps
2-0-0
5.47
1-1-0
4.51
2-0-0
5.42
2-0-0
5.13
2-0-0
5.45
2-0-0
5.55
 —
2-0-0
5.06
2-0-0
5.03
2-0-0
5.22
2-0-0
4.57
0-1-1
3.23
Lions Gibraltar
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
4.38
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
4.73
1-1-0
3.79
0-0-2
0.68
 —
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
0.87
Lynx
0-2-0
4.82
1-0-1
1.85
1-1-0
4.26
1-1-0
3.06
2-0-0
4.43
2-0-0
4.11
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
2.80
 —
1-0-1
3.62
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
0.63
Manchester 62
0-1-1
3.77
0-0-2
1.44
1-0-1
3.21
0-1-1
3.36
1-0-1
3.99
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
2.11
 —
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
0.92
Mons Calpe S.C.
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
4.94
0-1-1
3.36
2-0-0
4.43
1-1-0
4.34
0-0-2
1.16
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
3.47
 —
1-0-1
0.89
St. Joseph's
2-0-0
5.39
2-0-0
4.28
2-0-0
5.37
2-0-0
4.99
2-0-0
5.38
2-0-0
5.39
1-1-0
2.49
2-0-0
4.86
1-0-1
5.11
2-0-0
4.82
1-0-1
4.85
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +6.8
Allowed 0.79 -7.2
Differential 0.96 +4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%6.46%4.76%4.42%3.40%6.46%30.27%
16.46%6.12%5.10%4.08%1.70%1.70%25.17%
24.76%5.10%1.36%2.72%0.68%0.68%15.31%
34.42%4.08%2.72%0.68%1.02%—12.93%
43.40%1.70%0.68%1.02%——6.80%
5+6.46%1.70%0.68%——0.68%9.52%
Total30.27%25.17%15.31%12.93%6.80%9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.87 1.87 3.10
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min -1 -1 -10

Games Played: 147

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%59.09%
14.55%13.64%——4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%—————4.55%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%13.64%9.09%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.05 -1.36
SD 1.09 1.68 1.87
CV 1.59 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%7.41%———22.22%
111.11%—11.11%3.70%——25.93%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
37.41%3.70%3.70%———14.81%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+7.41%3.70%————11.11%
Total44.44%29.63%22.22%3.70%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.85 +1.04
SD 1.67 0.91 2.10
CV 0.89 1.07 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%13.64%—13.64%31.82%
113.64%—9.09%9.09%—4.55%36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
3——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%4.55%22.73%31.82%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.77 -1.36
SD 1.68 2.07 3.14
CV 1.19 0.75 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
113.64%4.55%13.64%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%22.73%22.73%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.45 -0.32
SD 1.04 1.71 2.25
CV 0.91 1.18 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%45.45%
14.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%—9.09%36.36%
2———9.09%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%18.18%18.18%22.73%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.59 -1.77
SD 0.96 1.84 2.31
CV 1.17 0.71 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%13.64%18.18%59.09%
1—18.18%—4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
2———————
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+—————4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%22.73%9.09%13.64%18.18%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.41 2.82 -2.41
SD 0.80 2.20 2.50
CV 1.95 0.78 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—————3.70%
13.70%7.41%——3.70%—14.81%
23.70%14.81%————18.52%
318.52%3.70%3.70%———25.93%
411.11%3.70%————14.81%
5+11.11%3.70%3.70%——3.70%22.22%
Total51.85%33.33%7.41%—3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.15 0.59 +2.56
SD 2.35 0.97 2.64
CV 0.75 1.64 —
Max 10 4 +10
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%—7.41%7.41%—18.52%
17.41%11.11%7.41%7.41%——33.33%
27.41%7.41%—3.70%——18.52%
3——7.41%3.70%——11.11%
4—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
5+7.41%3.70%————11.11%
Total22.22%29.63%18.52%22.22%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 1.63 +0.33
SD 1.79 1.28 2.60
CV 0.91 0.78 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%3.70%3.70%—3.70%33.33%
17.41%—7.41%3.70%3.70%—22.22%
211.11%—3.70%3.70%—7.41%25.93%
3—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total37.04%18.52%18.52%11.11%3.70%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.67 -0.26
SD 1.37 1.88 2.49
CV 0.97 1.13 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%—4.55%—31.82%45.45%
14.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
2——4.55%4.55%9.09%—18.18%
3—9.09%——4.55%—13.64%
4—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total4.55%27.27%9.09%13.64%13.64%31.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 3.59 -2.32
SD 1.42 2.81 3.67
CV 1.12 0.78 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%3.70%7.41%——18.52%
1—3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%—14.81%
27.41%11.11%————18.52%
37.41%7.41%7.41%———22.22%
47.41%—3.70%———11.11%
5+7.41%3.70%3.70%———14.81%
Total33.33%29.63%22.22%11.11%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 1.22 +1.19
SD 1.76 1.15 2.48
CV 0.73 0.94 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%————11.11%
17.41%3.70%—3.70%——14.81%
23.70%3.70%—3.70%——11.11%
3—7.41%—3.70%——11.11%
414.81%3.70%————18.52%
5+29.63%3.70%————33.33%
Total59.26%29.63%—11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 0.63 +2.93
SD 2.50 0.97 3.01
CV 0.70 1.54 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1725 59 54.59 +4.41 86.0% 45 46 50 55 58 62 62
St. Joseph's 1623 58 53.26 +4.74 88.0% 41 44 50 54 57 59 62
Europa 1503 46 41.29 +4.71 86.0% 28 33 37 41 45 50 55
Mons Calpe S.C. 1452 44 34.66 +9.34 95.0% 23 26 31 35 38 44 46
Lions Gibraltar 1267 38 33.02 +4.98 86.0% 23 25 29 33 36 41 44
Lynx 1231 34 32.82 +1.18 60.0% 20 23 29 33 37 41 43
FCB Magpies 1225 28 28.78 -0.78 53.0% 17 19 25 28 33 38 41
Europa Point 1036 22 16.68 +5.32 90.0% 7 10 13 16 19 26 29
College 1975 922 14 16.70 -2.70 32.0% 7 10 14 17 20 23 28
Glacis United 919 12 19.51 -7.51 6.0% 9 12 16 18 23 29 35
Manchester 62 874 17 16.05 +0.95 2.0% 4 8 13 16 19 23 25
Hound Dogs 732 8 19.02 -11.02 1.0% 7 11 16 19 22 26 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-5.44%
No Edge
40.82%12.93%46.26%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -16.56 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.11 goals
Neutral
-2-0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Lincoln Red Imps, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4 * Some Luck: 4 to 6.01 * Lucky: 6.01 to 8.01 * Wild Swing: 8.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.87 * Close: 0.87 to 1.31 * Off: 1.31 to 1.75 * Way Off: 1.75 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.54 points
Lucky
05.0013
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.092.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.00%
Mons Calpe S.C.
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Hound Dogs
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 315.32
2.67
Wide Separation
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
95%
Wide Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Frequent
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Frequent
0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.78
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Strong Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Lincoln Red Imps49.00%48.00%3.00%—————————
St. Joseph's50.00%43.00%7.00%—————————
Europa1.00%9.00%55.00%21.00%12.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Mons Calpe S.C.——19.00%24.00%28.00%20.00%7.00%2.00%————
Lions Gibraltar——7.00%24.00%24.00%25.00%16.00%4.00%————
Lynx——6.00%22.00%23.00%30.00%16.00%1.00%2.00%———
FCB Magpies——3.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%35.00%16.00%5.00%2.00%——
Europa Point—————1.00%3.00%13.00%18.00%19.00%20.00%26.00%
Manchester 62——————2.00%13.00%10.00%23.00%24.00%28.00%
College 1975——————2.00%15.00%18.00%22.00%21.00%22.00%
Glacis United————1.00%3.00%11.00%16.00%23.00%15.00%20.00%11.00%
Hound Dogs————1.00%1.00%7.00%20.00%24.00%19.00%15.00%13.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
College 1975 100%
Europa 100%
Europa Point 100%
FCB Magpies 100%
Glacis United 100%
Hound Dogs 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Manchester 62 100%
Mons Calpe S.C. 100%
St. Joseph's 100%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Europa 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Mons Calpe S.C. 100%
St. Joseph's 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-08-15 Lynx L 2-345.4 1044 1173 26.21% 13.72% 60.06%-0.89 -14.7 0
2025-08-15 @ Glacis United W 3-245.4 1173 1044 60.06% 13.72% 26.21%+0.89 +14.7 3
2025-08-16 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-542.1 1082 957 59.48% 13.73% 26.79%+0.66 -150.9 0
2025-08-16 @ College 1975 W 5-042.1 957 1082 26.79% 13.73% 59.48%-0.66 +150.9 3
2025-08-16 Lions Gibraltar D 1-155.3 1204 1133 52.92% 13.78% 33.30%+0.33 -2.7 1
2025-08-16 @ Hound Dogs D 1-155.3 1133 1204 33.30% 13.78% 52.92%-0.33 +2.7 1
2025-08-17 Europa Point W 6-024.8 1497 942 84.60% 12.40% 3.00%+3.28 +10.5 3
2025-08-17 @ St. Joseph's L 0-624.8 942 1497 3.00% 12.40% 84.60%-3.28 -10.5 0
2025-08-22 Europa L 0-133.2 1108 1372 14.02% 13.47% 72.51%-1.70 -9.2 3
2025-08-22 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 1-033.2 1372 1108 72.51% 13.47% 14.02%+1.70 +9.2 3
2025-08-23 Manchester 62 D 2-260.4 1220 1305 31.47% 13.77% 54.76%-0.62 +2.4 1
2025-08-23 @ FCB Magpies D 2-260.4 1305 1220 54.76% 13.77% 31.47%+0.62 -2.4 1
2025-08-23 Lions Gibraltar L 1-248.1 1188 1136 50.42% 13.79% 35.79%+0.22 -27.6 3
2025-08-23 @ Lynx W 2-148.1 1136 1188 35.79% 13.79% 50.42%-0.22 +27.6 4
2025-08-24 Hound Dogs L 0-329.8 932 1202 13.57% 13.45% 72.98%-1.74 -24.3 0
2025-08-24 @ Europa Point W 3-029.8 1202 932 72.98% 13.45% 13.57%+1.74 +24.4 4
2025-08-24 College 1975 W 4-025.5 1507 931 85.04% 12.29% 2.66%+3.41 +6.4 6
2025-08-24 @ St. Joseph's L 0-425.5 931 1507 2.66% 12.29% 85.04%-3.41 -6.4 0
2025-08-29 Europa Point W 3-241.8 1163 907 71.98% 13.49% 14.53%+1.46 +8.5 7
2025-08-29 @ Lions Gibraltar L 2-341.8 907 1163 14.53% 13.49% 71.98%-1.46 -8.5 0
2025-08-30 Lynx L 0-248.5 1381 1160 69.14% 13.57% 17.30%+1.24 -75.0 3
2025-08-30 @ Europa W 2-048.5 1160 1381 17.30% 13.57% 69.14%-1.24 +75.0 6
2025-08-30 St. Joseph's L 0-533.7 1303 1514 18.13% 13.59% 68.28%-1.38 -51.5 1
2025-08-30 @ Manchester 62 W 5-033.7 1514 1303 68.28% 13.59% 18.13%+1.38 +51.5 9
2025-08-31 Glacis United L 0-137.4 924 1029 29.03% 13.75% 57.22%-0.74 -18.0 0
2025-08-31 @ College 1975 W 1-037.4 1029 924 57.22% 13.75% 29.03%+0.74 +18.0 3
2025-08-31 FCB Magpies D 0-052.0 1099 1222 26.89% 13.73% 59.38%-0.85 +5.0 4
2025-08-31 @ Mons Calpe S.C. D 0-052.0 1222 1099 59.38% 13.73% 26.89%+0.85 -5.0 2
2025-09-12 Europa L 1-242.7 1217 1306 31.08% 13.77% 55.16%-0.64 -18.0 2
2025-09-12 @ FCB Magpies W 2-142.7 1306 1217 55.16% 13.77% 31.08%+0.64 +18.0 6
2025-09-13 Manchester 62 L 1-337.5 1047 1252 18.69% 13.60% 67.71%-1.34 -19.6 3
2025-09-13 @ Glacis United W 3-137.5 1252 1047 67.71% 13.60% 18.69%+1.34 +19.6 4
2025-09-13 Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-357.7 1565 1104 82.19% 12.81% 5.00%+2.71 -77.8 9
2025-09-13 @ St. Joseph's W 3-157.7 1104 1565 5.00% 12.81% 82.19%-2.71 +77.8 7
2025-09-14 Lynx D 2-260.0 899 1235 9.66% 13.26% 77.07%-2.15 +7.3 1
2025-09-14 @ Europa Point D 2-260.0 1235 899 77.07% 13.26% 9.66%+2.15 -7.3 7
2025-09-14 Lions Gibraltar W 4-029.3 1579 1172 80.30% 13.02% 6.68%+2.38 +16.0 3
2025-09-14 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-429.3 1172 1579 6.68% 13.02% 80.30%-2.38 -16.0 7
2025-09-15 Hound Dogs D 1-155.4 906 1226 10.56% 13.32% 76.13%-2.05 +9.6 1
2025-09-15 @ College 1975 D 1-155.4 1226 906 76.13% 13.32% 10.56%+2.05 -9.6 5
2025-09-17 Manchester 62 W 2-144.5 1324 1271 50.48% 13.79% 35.72%+0.22 +20.4 9
2025-09-17 @ Europa L 1-244.5 1271 1324 35.72% 13.79% 50.48%-0.22 -20.4 4
2025-09-19 St. Joseph's L 0-232.5 1199 1487 12.40% 13.41% 74.20%-1.85 -15.4 2
2025-09-19 @ FCB Magpies W 2-032.5 1487 1199 74.20% 13.41% 12.40%+1.85 +15.4 12
2025-09-20 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-540.5 1228 1595 8.26% 13.16% 78.58%-2.33 -11.0 7
2025-09-20 @ Lynx W 5-240.5 1595 1228 78.58% 13.16% 8.26%+2.33 +11.0 6
2025-09-20 Glacis United W 2-034.3 1182 1028 62.79% 13.69% 23.52%+0.84 +28.0 10
2025-09-20 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-234.3 1028 1182 23.52% 13.69% 62.79%-0.84 -28.0 3
2025-09-21 Europa Point W 2-028.7 1344 906 81.44% 12.90% 5.65%+2.57 +7.1 12
2025-09-21 @ Europa L 0-228.7 906 1344 5.65% 12.90% 81.44%-2.57 -7.1 1
2025-09-21 College 1975 W 4-135.2 1156 916 70.75% 13.53% 15.73%+1.36 +23.6 10
2025-09-21 @ Lions Gibraltar L 1-435.2 916 1156 15.73% 13.53% 70.75%-1.36 -23.6 1
2025-09-22 Hound Dogs W 4-142.3 1251 1216 47.97% 13.80% 38.24%+0.11 +53.0 7
2025-09-22 @ Manchester 62 L 1-442.3 1216 1251 38.24% 13.80% 47.97%-0.11 -53.0 5
2025-09-24 FCB Magpies W 7-029.0 1606 1184 80.87% 12.97% 6.17%+2.47 +25.0 9
2025-09-24 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-729.0 1184 1606 6.17% 12.97% 80.87%-2.47 -25.0 2
2025-09-26 Europa W 2-145.0 1503 1351 62.50% 13.69% 23.81%+0.82 +14.2 15
2025-09-26 @ St. Joseph's L 1-245.0 1351 1503 23.81% 13.69% 62.50%-0.82 -14.2 12
2025-09-27 Lynx D 0-052.0 892 1217 10.27% 13.30% 76.43%-2.08 +10.8 2
2025-09-27 @ College 1975 D 0-052.0 1217 892 76.43% 13.30% 10.27%+2.08 -10.8 8
2025-09-27 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-436.0 1163 1210 36.57% 13.79% 49.64%-0.38 -79.0 5
2025-09-27 @ Hound Dogs W 4-036.0 1210 1163 49.64% 13.79% 36.57%+0.38 +79.0 13
2025-09-28 FCB Magpies L 0-135.6 1000 1159 22.98% 13.68% 63.34%-1.07 -14.6 3
2025-09-28 @ Glacis United W 1-035.6 1159 1000 63.34% 13.68% 22.98%+1.07 +14.6 5
2025-09-28 Europa Point W 7-024.2 1631 899 87.40% 11.48% 1.13%+4.36 +4.5 12
2025-09-28 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-724.2 899 1631 1.13% 11.48% 87.40%-4.36 -4.5 1
2025-09-29 Lions Gibraltar L 2-454.3 1304 1180 59.48% 13.73% 26.79%+0.66 -50.0 7
2025-09-29 @ Manchester 62 W 4-254.3 1180 1304 26.79% 13.73% 59.48%-0.66 +50.0 13
2025-10-02 Glacis United W 6-025.1 1517 985 84.09% 12.51% 3.41%+3.14 +12.0 18
2025-10-02 @ St. Joseph's L 0-625.1 985 1517 3.41% 12.51% 84.09%-3.14 -11.9 3
2025-10-03 Manchester 62 L 0-140.0 1206 1254 36.44% 13.79% 49.76%-0.39 -22.0 8
2025-10-03 @ Lynx W 1-040.0 1254 1206 49.76% 13.79% 36.44%+0.39 +22.0 10
2025-10-04 College 1975 W 1-042.0 894 903 41.87% 13.80% 44.33%-0.15 +26.1 4
2025-10-04 @ Europa Point L 0-142.0 903 894 44.33% 13.80% 41.87%+0.15 -26.1 2
2025-10-04 Hound Dogs W 1-038.1 1174 1084 55.25% 13.77% 30.99%+0.44 +19.1 8
2025-10-04 @ FCB Magpies L 0-138.1 1084 1174 30.99% 13.77% 55.25%-0.44 -19.1 5
2025-10-05 Lions Gibraltar L 0-243.1 1289 1230 51.37% 13.79% 34.84%+0.26 -56.2 13
2025-10-05 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 2-043.1 1230 1289 34.84% 13.79% 51.37%-0.26 +56.2 16
2025-10-17 Europa L 0-229.6 973 1337 8.38% 13.17% 78.44%-2.32 -10.5 3
2025-10-17 @ Glacis United W 2-029.6 1337 973 78.44% 13.17% 8.38%+2.32 +10.5 15
2025-10-18 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-325.9 877 1635 0.97% 11.33% 87.70%-4.72 -1.7 2
2025-10-18 @ College 1975 W 3-025.9 1635 877 87.70% 11.33% 0.97%+4.72 +1.8 15
2025-10-18 Europa Point W 4-343.5 1276 921 78.02% 13.20% 8.78%+2.06 +5.1 13
2025-10-18 @ Manchester 62 L 3-443.5 921 1276 8.78% 13.20% 78.02%-2.06 -5.1 4
2025-10-19 St. Joseph's L 0-526.4 1065 1529 4.93% 12.80% 82.27%-2.92 -14.6 5
2025-10-19 @ Hound Dogs W 5-026.4 1529 1065 82.27% 12.80% 4.93%+2.92 +14.6 21
2025-10-19 Lynx W 5-245.1 1233 1184 49.89% 13.79% 36.32%+0.19 +43.9 16
2025-10-19 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 2-545.1 1184 1233 36.32% 13.79% 49.89%-0.19 -43.9 8
2025-10-20 FCB Magpies W 3-247.0 1286 1193 55.73% 13.76% 30.50%+0.47 +16.8 19
2025-10-20 @ Lions Gibraltar L 2-347.0 1193 1286 30.50% 13.76% 55.73%-0.47 -16.8 8
2025-10-24 Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-531.5 915 1277 8.51% 13.18% 78.31%-2.30 -16.9 4
2025-10-24 @ Europa Point W 5-131.5 1277 915 78.31% 13.18% 8.51%+2.30 +16.9 19
2025-10-25 College 1975 W 1-029.8 1348 875 82.54% 12.76% 4.70%+2.78 +3.2 18
2025-10-25 @ Europa L 0-129.8 875 1348 4.70% 12.76% 82.54%-2.78 -3.1 2
2025-10-25 Hound Dogs D 0-051.9 963 1051 31.15% 13.77% 55.09%-0.64 +3.6 4
2025-10-25 @ Glacis United D 0-051.9 1051 963 55.09% 13.77% 31.15%+0.64 -3.7 6
2025-10-26 Lynx L 1-346.4 1176 1140 48.10% 13.80% 38.10%+0.11 -45.8 8
2025-10-26 @ FCB Magpies W 3-146.4 1140 1176 38.10% 13.80% 48.10%-0.11 +45.8 11
2025-10-26 Lions Gibraltar W 3-141.2 1543 1303 70.81% 13.52% 15.66%+1.37 +16.6 24
2025-10-26 @ St. Joseph's L 1-341.2 1303 1543 15.66% 13.52% 70.81%-1.37 -16.6 19
2025-10-27 Manchester 62 W 3-247.0 1637 1281 78.07% 13.20% 8.73%+2.07 +5.2 18
2025-10-27 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 2-347.0 1281 1637 8.73% 13.20% 78.07%-2.07 -5.2 13
2025-10-31 Glacis United W 2-135.9 1286 966 76.12% 13.32% 10.56%+1.84 +6.6 22
2025-10-31 @ Lions Gibraltar L 1-235.9 966 1286 10.56% 13.32% 76.12%-1.84 -6.6 4
2025-11-01 St. Joseph's L 0-728.7 1186 1560 7.96% 13.14% 78.90%-2.38 -32.2 11
2025-11-01 @ Lynx W 7-028.7 1560 1186 78.90% 13.14% 7.96%+2.38 +32.2 27
2025-11-01 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-336.0 1294 1642 9.07% 13.22% 77.70%-2.23 -16.5 19
2025-11-01 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 3-036.0 1642 1294 77.70% 13.22% 9.07%+2.23 +16.5 21
2025-11-02 Europa Point L 0-149.6 1130 899 70.05% 13.54% 16.41%+1.31 -40.3 8
2025-11-02 @ FCB Magpies W 1-049.6 899 1130 16.41% 13.54% 70.05%-1.31 +40.3 7
2025-11-02 College 1975 L 3-464.8 1276 872 80.17% 13.03% 6.80%+2.36 -40.5 13
2025-11-02 @ Manchester 62 W 4-364.8 872 1276 6.80% 13.03% 80.17%-2.36 +40.5 5
2025-11-07 Lions Gibraltar W 3-249.3 1351 1292 51.25% 13.79% 34.96%+0.26 +19.0 21
2025-11-07 @ Europa L 2-349.3 1292 1351 34.96% 13.79% 51.25%-0.26 -19.0 22
2025-11-08 FCB Magpies L 0-233.5 912 1090 21.19% 13.65% 65.16%-1.18 -25.5 5
2025-11-08 @ College 1975 W 2-033.5 1090 912 65.16% 13.65% 21.19%+1.18 +25.5 11
2025-11-08 Mons Calpe S.C. L 2-447.7 1235 1277 37.22% 13.80% 48.99%-0.36 -32.8 13
2025-11-08 @ Manchester 62 W 4-247.7 1277 1235 48.99% 13.80% 37.22%+0.36 +32.8 22
2025-11-09 Europa Point W 3-143.9 960 939 46.08% 13.80% 40.12%+0.03 +39.1 7
2025-11-09 @ Glacis United L 1-343.9 939 960 40.12% 13.80% 46.08%-0.03 -39.1 7
2025-11-09 Lynx L 0-433.5 1047 1154 28.80% 13.75% 57.45%-0.75 -63.9 6
2025-11-09 @ Hound Dogs W 4-033.5 1154 1047 57.45% 13.75% 28.80%+0.75 +63.9 14
2025-11-21 Europa W 1-046.8 1273 1370 30.09% 13.76% 56.15%-0.69 +32.4 25
2025-11-21 @ Lions Gibraltar L 0-146.8 1370 1273 56.15% 13.76% 30.09%+0.69 -32.4 21
2025-11-22 Glacis United W 3-254.4 900 999 29.76% 13.76% 56.48%-0.70 +29.1 10
2025-11-22 @ Europa Point L 2-354.4 999 900 56.48% 13.76% 29.76%+0.70 -29.1 7
2025-11-22 Manchester 62 W 6-033.1 1310 1202 57.48% 13.75% 28.77%+0.55 +93.5 25
2025-11-22 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-633.1 1202 1310 28.77% 13.75% 57.48%-0.55 -93.5 13
2025-11-23 Hound Dogs W 2-032.0 1218 983 70.33% 13.54% 16.13%+1.33 +19.8 17
2025-11-23 @ Lynx L 0-232.0 983 1218 16.13% 13.54% 70.33%-1.33 -19.8 6
2025-11-23 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-172.6 1592 1659 33.88% 13.78% 52.34%-0.51 +2.5 28
2025-11-23 @ St. Joseph's D 1-172.6 1659 1592 52.34% 13.78% 33.88%+0.51 -2.5 22
2025-11-24 College 1975 L 0-149.6 1115 887 69.78% 13.55% 16.67%+1.29 -40.1 11
2025-11-24 @ FCB Magpies W 1-049.6 887 1115 16.67% 13.55% 69.78%-1.29 +40.2 8
2025-11-28 Europa Point L 0-738.4 963 929 47.98% 13.80% 38.23%+0.11 -169.7 6
2025-11-28 @ Hound Dogs W 7-038.4 929 963 38.23% 13.80% 47.98%-0.11 +169.7 13
2025-11-29 Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-245.5 1338 1403 34.01% 13.78% 52.21%-0.50 -19.5 21
2025-11-29 @ Europa W 2-145.5 1403 1338 52.21% 13.78% 34.01%+0.50 +19.5 28
2025-11-29 Manchester 62 W 1-043.1 1075 1109 38.29% 13.80% 47.91%-0.31 +28.0 14
2025-11-29 @ FCB Magpies L 0-143.1 1109 1075 47.91% 13.80% 38.29%+0.31 -28.0 13
2025-11-30 St. Joseph's L 1-529.5 927 1595 1.61% 11.83% 86.56%-4.16 -3.2 8
2025-11-30 @ College 1975 W 5-129.5 1595 927 86.56% 11.83% 1.61%+4.16 +3.2 31
2025-11-30 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-326.8 970 1656 1.45% 11.73% 86.82%-4.28 -2.6 7
2025-11-30 @ Glacis United W 3-026.8 1656 970 86.82% 11.73% 1.45%+4.28 +2.6 25
2025-12-01 Lynx L 0-145.1 1306 1238 52.53% 13.78% 33.69%+0.31 -30.4 25
2025-12-01 @ Lions Gibraltar W 1-045.1 1238 1306 33.69% 13.78% 52.53%-0.31 +30.4 20
2025-12-03 Europa L 0-326.5 794 1318 3.54% 12.54% 83.92%-3.29 -6.5 6
2025-12-03 @ Hound Dogs W 3-026.5 1318 794 83.92% 12.54% 3.54%+3.29 +6.5 24
2025-12-04 Glacis United W 6-128.7 1659 967 86.89% 11.70% 1.41%+4.11 +3.4 28
2025-12-04 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-628.7 967 1659 1.41% 11.70% 86.89%-4.11 -3.4 7
2025-12-05 Manchester 62 W 10-026.4 1598 1081 83.74% 12.57% 3.69%+3.05 +21.1 34
2025-12-05 @ St. Joseph's L 0-1026.4 1081 1598 3.69% 12.57% 83.74%-3.05 -21.1 13
2025-12-06 Mons Calpe S.C. W 2-156.1 1103 1423 10.54% 13.31% 76.14%-2.05 +41.5 17
2025-12-06 @ FCB Magpies L 1-256.1 1423 1103 76.14% 13.31% 10.54%+2.05 -41.5 28
2025-12-06 Europa L 0-238.7 1268 1325 35.24% 13.79% 50.97%-0.44 -40.3 20
2025-12-06 @ Lynx W 2-038.7 1325 1268 50.97% 13.79% 35.24%+0.44 +40.3 27
2025-12-07 Lions Gibraltar W 2-152.5 1099 1275 21.22% 13.65% 65.13%-1.18 +35.3 16
2025-12-07 @ Europa Point L 1-252.5 1275 1099 65.13% 13.65% 21.22%+1.18 -35.3 25
2025-12-07 Hound Dogs W 4-024.4 1662 787 88.86% 10.64% 0.51%+5.23 +1.2 31
2025-12-07 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-424.4 787 1662 0.51% 10.64% 88.86%-5.23 -1.2 6
2025-12-08 College 1975 D 1-155.2 964 924 48.71% 13.80% 37.50%+0.14 -1.5 8
2025-12-08 @ Glacis United D 1-155.2 924 964 37.50% 13.80% 48.71%-0.14 +1.5 9
2025-12-12 St. Joseph's L 1-346.5 1381 1619 15.91% 13.53% 70.56%-1.55 -16.9 28
2025-12-12 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 3-146.5 1619 1381 70.56% 13.53% 15.91%+1.55 +16.9 37
2025-12-13 FCB Magpies W 2-138.4 1365 1144 69.14% 13.57% 17.29%+1.24 +10.5 30
2025-12-13 @ Europa L 1-238.4 1144 1365 17.29% 13.57% 69.14%-1.24 -10.5 17
2025-12-13 Europa Point W 3-141.1 1228 1134 55.84% 13.76% 30.40%+0.47 +30.6 23
2025-12-13 @ Lynx L 1-341.1 1134 1228 30.40% 13.76% 55.84%-0.47 -30.6 16
2025-12-14 College 1975 L 0-234.7 786 925 25.07% 13.71% 61.22%-0.95 -29.7 6
2025-12-14 @ Hound Dogs W 2-034.7 925 786 61.22% 13.71% 25.07%+0.95 +29.7 12
2025-12-15 Glacis United L 0-342.7 1060 962 56.30% 13.76% 29.94%+0.49 -88.9 13
2025-12-15 @ Manchester 62 W 3-042.7 962 1060 29.94% 13.76% 56.30%-0.49 +88.9 11
2025-12-19 Manchester 62 L 1-337.1 756 971 17.77% 13.58% 68.65%-1.41 -18.7 6
2025-12-19 @ Hound Dogs W 3-137.1 971 756 68.65% 13.58% 17.77%+1.41 +18.7 16
2025-12-20 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-428.2 1051 1364 10.90% 13.33% 75.76%-2.01 -25.8 11
2025-12-20 @ Glacis United W 4-028.2 1364 1051 75.76% 13.33% 10.90%+2.01 +25.8 31
2025-12-20 FCB Magpies W 4-028.7 1636 1134 83.36% 12.64% 4.00%+2.96 +9.6 40
2025-12-20 @ St. Joseph's L 0-428.7 1134 1636 4.00% 12.64% 83.36%-2.96 -9.6 17
2025-12-21 Europa L 0-330.2 1103 1375 13.43% 13.45% 73.12%-1.76 -24.1 16
2025-12-21 @ Europa Point W 3-030.2 1375 1103 73.12% 13.45% 13.43%+1.76 +24.1 33
2025-12-21 Lynx W 3-034.8 1664 1258 80.23% 13.03% 6.75%+2.37 +12.3 34
2025-12-21 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-334.8 1258 1664 6.75% 13.03% 80.23%-2.37 -12.4 23
2025-12-22 Lions Gibraltar L 0-230.9 955 1240 12.59% 13.41% 73.99%-1.84 -15.6 12
2025-12-22 @ College 1975 W 2-030.9 1240 955 73.99% 13.41% 12.59%+1.84 +15.6 28
2026-01-09 St. Joseph's L 0-144.9 1399 1646 15.28% 13.51% 71.21%-1.60 -10.0 33
2026-01-09 @ Europa W 1-044.9 1646 1399 71.21% 13.51% 15.28%+1.60 +10.0 43
2026-01-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-235.8 1079 1676 2.38% 12.19% 85.42%-3.73 -1.5 16
2026-01-10 @ Europa Point W 2-135.8 1676 1079 85.42% 12.19% 2.38%+3.73 +1.5 37
2026-01-10 Glacis United W 3-140.8 1124 1025 56.45% 13.76% 29.79%+0.50 +30.1 20
2026-01-10 @ FCB Magpies L 1-340.8 1025 1124 29.79% 13.76% 56.45%-0.50 -30.1 11
2026-01-11 College 1975 D 0-052.0 1246 940 75.36% 13.35% 11.29%+1.77 -10.4 24
2026-01-11 @ Lynx D 0-052.0 940 1246 11.29% 13.35% 75.36%-1.77 +10.4 13
2026-01-11 Hound Dogs D 1-155.8 1390 737 86.34% 11.91% 1.75%+3.87 -12.6 32
2026-01-11 @ Mons Calpe S.C. D 1-155.8 737 1390 1.75% 11.91% 86.34%-3.87 +12.6 7
2026-01-12 Manchester 62 W 7-028.1 1256 990 72.69% 13.46% 13.84%+1.52 +54.9 31
2026-01-12 @ Lions Gibraltar L 0-728.1 990 1256 13.84% 13.46% 72.69%-1.52 -54.9 16
2026-01-14 St. Joseph's L 1-462.9 1678 1655 46.24% 13.80% 39.96%+0.03 -62.6 37
2026-01-14 @ Lincoln Red Imps W 4-162.9 1655 1678 39.96% 13.80% 46.24%-0.03 +62.6 46
2026-01-16 Europa Point L 3-448.9 950 1078 26.40% 13.72% 59.88%-0.88 -14.4 13
2026-01-16 @ College 1975 W 4-348.9 1078 950 59.88% 13.72% 26.40%+0.88 +14.4 19
2026-01-17 St. Joseph's L 0-426.6 995 1718 1.19% 11.53% 87.28%-4.50 -2.8 11
2026-01-17 @ Glacis United W 4-026.6 1718 995 87.28% 11.53% 1.19%+4.50 +2.8 49
2026-01-17 FCB Magpies L 0-327.6 750 1154 6.78% 13.03% 80.19%-2.56 -12.4 7
2026-01-17 @ Hound Dogs W 3-027.6 1154 750 80.19% 13.03% 6.78%+2.56 +12.4 23
2026-01-18 Europa W 3-147.0 1615 1390 69.55% 13.56% 16.89%+1.27 +17.8 40
2026-01-18 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-347.0 1390 1615 16.89% 13.56% 69.55%-1.27 -17.9 33
2026-01-18 Lynx L 0-527.7 935 1236 11.62% 13.37% 75.01%-1.93 -33.8 16
2026-01-18 @ Manchester 62 W 5-027.7 1236 935 75.01% 13.37% 11.62%+1.93 +33.8 27
2026-01-19 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-337.7 1311 1378 33.84% 13.78% 52.38%-0.51 -56.5 31
2026-01-19 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-037.7 1378 1311 52.38% 13.78% 33.84%+0.51 +56.5 35
2026-01-24 Manchester 62 W 1-034.6 1092 901 66.50% 13.63% 19.87%+1.06 +12.7 22
2026-01-24 @ Europa Point L 0-134.6 901 1092 19.87% 13.63% 66.50%-1.06 -12.7 16
2026-01-24 Lions Gibraltar D 1-155.5 1167 1254 31.21% 13.77% 55.03%-0.63 +3.2 24
2026-01-24 @ FCB Magpies D 1-155.5 1254 1167 55.03% 13.77% 31.21%+0.63 -3.2 32
2026-01-25 College 1975 W 4-025.4 1633 936 86.96% 11.67% 1.37%+4.14 +3.2 43
2026-01-25 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-425.4 936 1633 1.37% 11.67% 86.96%-4.14 -3.2 13
2026-01-25 Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-241.5 1269 1434 22.43% 13.67% 63.90%-1.10 -13.4 27
2026-01-25 @ Lynx W 2-141.5 1434 1269 63.90% 13.67% 22.43%+1.10 +13.4 38
2026-01-25 Hound Dogs W 6-023.3 1721 738 89.75% 9.97% 0.28%+5.89 +0.9 52
2026-01-25 @ St. Joseph's L 0-623.3 738 1721 0.28% 9.97% 89.75%-5.89 -0.9 7
2026-01-26 Glacis United W 5-131.4 1372 992 79.14% 13.12% 7.74%+2.21 +15.4 36
2026-01-26 @ Europa L 1-531.4 992 1372 7.74% 13.12% 79.14%-2.21 -15.4 11
2026-01-28 Lincoln Red Imps FL51.3 737 1636 0.44% 10.49% 89.07%-5.58 +0.0 7
2026-01-28 @ Hound Dogs FW51.3 1636 737 89.07% 10.49% 0.44%+5.58 +0.0 46
2026-02-06 Lynx D 0-052.1 1170 1256 31.38% 13.77% 54.85%-0.62 +3.6 25
2026-02-06 @ FCB Magpies D 0-052.1 1256 1170 54.85% 13.77% 31.38%+0.62 -3.6 28
2026-02-07 Europa L 0-130.1 932 1387 5.17% 12.84% 81.99%-2.87 -3.5 13
2026-02-07 @ College 1975 W 1-030.1 1387 932 81.99% 12.84% 5.17%+2.87 +3.5 39
2026-02-07 St. Joseph's L 0-435.0 1251 1722 4.74% 12.77% 82.48%-2.97 -11.4 32
2026-02-07 @ Lions Gibraltar W 4-035.0 1722 1251 82.48% 12.77% 4.74%+2.97 +11.4 55
2026-02-08 Glacis United D 1-155.3 737 977 15.71% 13.52% 70.77%-1.56 +7.9 8
2026-02-08 @ Hound Dogs D 1-155.3 977 737 70.77% 13.52% 15.71%+1.56 -7.9 12
2026-02-08 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-1024.2 888 1636 1.03% 11.39% 87.58%-4.65 -5.8 16
2026-02-08 @ Manchester 62 W 10-024.2 1636 888 87.58% 11.39% 1.03%+4.65 +5.8 49
2026-02-09 Europa Point W 2-136.1 1448 1105 77.39% 13.24% 9.37%+1.99 +5.9 41
2026-02-09 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-236.1 1105 1448 9.37% 13.24% 77.39%-1.99 -5.9 22
2026-02-12 Lincoln Red Imps D 0-063.2 1391 1642 14.89% 13.50% 71.61%-1.63 +9.1 40
2026-02-12 @ Europa D 0-063.2 1642 1391 71.61% 13.50% 14.89%+1.63 -9.1 50
2026-02-19 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-240.3 1240 1633 7.19% 13.07% 79.74%-2.49 -4.5 32
2026-02-19 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-140.3 1633 1240 79.74% 13.07% 7.19%+2.49 +4.5 53
2026-02-20 FCB Magpies L 0-335.8 1099 1174 32.85% 13.78% 53.37%-0.55 -55.0 22
2026-02-20 @ Europa Point W 3-035.8 1174 1099 53.37% 13.78% 32.85%+0.55 +55.0 28
2026-02-21 Manchester 62 D 1-155.2 929 882 49.62% 13.79% 36.59%+0.18 -1.8 14
2026-02-21 @ College 1975 D 1-155.2 882 929 36.59% 13.79% 49.62%-0.18 +1.7 17
2026-02-21 Lynx L 0-162.7 1733 1252 82.77% 12.73% 4.50%+2.83 -48.0 55
2026-02-21 @ St. Joseph's W 1-062.7 1252 1733 4.50% 12.73% 82.77%-2.83 +47.9 31
2026-02-22 Mons Calpe S.C. W 3-045.2 1637 1453 65.81% 13.64% 20.55%+1.02 +36.0 56
2026-02-22 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-345.2 1453 1637 20.55% 13.64% 65.81%-1.02 -36.0 41
2026-02-22 Hound Dogs W 6-024.0 1400 745 86.38% 11.90% 1.73%+3.89 +6.0 43
2026-02-22 @ Europa L 0-624.0 745 1400 1.73% 11.90% 86.38%-3.89 -6.0 8
2026-02-23 Lions Gibraltar L 0-528.4 969 1235 13.85% 13.46% 72.68%-1.72 -40.0 12
2026-02-23 @ Glacis United W 5-028.4 1235 969 72.68% 13.46% 13.85%+1.72 +40.0 35
2026-03-02 Europa L 0-525.1 884 1406 3.60% 12.55% 83.84%-3.28 -10.6 17
2026-03-02 @ Manchester 62 W 5-025.1 1406 884 83.84% 12.55% 3.60%+3.28 +10.6 46
2026-03-03 St. Joseph's L 0-726.3 1044 1685 1.86% 11.97% 86.17%-4.00 -7.5 22
2026-03-03 @ Europa Point W 7-026.3 1685 1044 86.17% 11.97% 1.86%+4.00 +7.5 58
2026-03-04 College 1975 W 2-028.3 1417 927 83.04% 12.69% 4.27%+2.88 +5.4 44
2026-03-04 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-228.3 927 1417 4.27% 12.69% 83.04%-2.88 -5.4 14
2026-03-05 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-240.7 1229 1673 5.46% 12.88% 81.66%-2.81 -3.5 28
2026-03-05 @ FCB Magpies W 2-140.7 1673 1229 81.66% 12.88% 5.46%+2.81 +3.5 59
2026-03-08 Hound Dogs W 5-129.7 1275 739 84.20% 12.48% 3.32%+3.17 +6.6 38
2026-03-08 @ Lions Gibraltar L 1-529.7 739 1275 3.32% 12.48% 84.20%-3.17 -6.6 8
2026-03-08 Glacis United W 2-029.5 1300 929 78.78% 13.15% 8.07%+2.16 +10.1 34
2026-03-08 @ Lynx L 0-229.5 929 1300 8.07% 13.15% 78.78%-2.16 -10.1 12

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2026-03-21 St. Joseph's W 1-061.1 1677 1693 40.80% 13.80% 45.39%-0.20 +26.7 3
2026-03-21 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-161.1 1693 1677 45.39% 13.80% 40.80%+0.20 -26.7 0
2026-03-22 Lions Gibraltar W 3-141.2 1423 1282 61.40% 13.71% 24.89%+0.76 +25.6 3
2026-03-22 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-341.2 1282 1423 24.89% 13.71% 61.40%-0.76 -25.6 0
2026-03-22 Lynx W 3-142.8 1416 1311 57.29% 13.75% 28.96%+0.54 +29.3 3
2026-03-22 @ Europa L 1-342.8 1311 1416 28.96% 13.75% 57.29%-0.54 -29.3 0
2026-04-04 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-333.7 1256 1448 19.75% 13.62% 66.62%-1.27 -34.7 0
2026-04-04 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-033.7 1448 1256 66.62% 13.62% 19.75%+1.27 +34.7 6
2026-04-04 Lynx W 1-038.8 1666 1281 79.38% 13.10% 7.52%+2.24 +5.0 3
2026-04-04 @ St. Joseph's L 0-138.8 1281 1666 7.52% 13.10% 79.38%-2.24 -5.0 0
2026-04-05 Europa W 2-152.1 1703 1446 72.09% 13.48% 14.43%+1.47 +8.9 6
2026-04-05 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-252.1 1446 1703 14.43% 13.48% 72.09%-1.47 -8.9 3
2026-04-11 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-163.1 1221 1712 4.26% 12.69% 83.06%-3.09 +11.7 1
2026-04-11 @ Lions Gibraltar D 1-163.1 1712 1221 83.06% 12.69% 4.26%+3.09 -11.7 7
2026-04-11 St. Joseph's D 0-065.8 1437 1671 16.18% 13.54% 70.29%-1.53 +8.7 4
2026-04-11 @ Europa D 0-065.8 1671 1437 70.29% 13.54% 16.18%+1.53 -8.6 4
2026-04-12 Mons Calpe S.C. L 2-345.8 1276 1483 18.45% 13.60% 67.95%-1.36 -10.6 0
2026-04-12 @ Lynx W 3-245.8 1483 1276 67.95% 13.60% 18.45%+1.36 +10.6 9
2026-04-18 St. Joseph's W 3-272.0 1494 1662 22.02% 13.67% 64.31%-1.13 +33.1 12
2026-04-18 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 2-372.0 1662 1494 64.31% 13.67% 22.02%+1.13 -33.1 4
2026-04-18 Europa W 2-046.5 1701 1445 71.90% 13.49% 14.61%+1.45 +18.0 10
2026-04-18 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-246.5 1445 1701 14.61% 13.49% 71.90%-1.45 -18.0 4
2026-04-19 Lions Gibraltar L 0-143.5 1266 1233 47.71% 13.80% 38.50%+0.10 -27.9 0
2026-04-19 @ Lynx W 1-043.5 1233 1266 38.50% 13.80% 47.71%-0.10 +27.9 4
2026-04-25 Mons Calpe S.C. W 4-155.8 1427 1527 29.73% 13.76% 56.51%-0.71 +75.2 7
2026-04-25 @ Europa L 1-455.8 1527 1427 56.51% 13.76% 29.73%+0.71 -75.2 12
2026-04-25 Lynx W 4-139.9 1718 1238 82.77% 12.73% 4.50%+2.83 +7.0 13
2026-04-25 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-439.9 1238 1718 4.50% 12.73% 82.77%-2.83 -7.0 0
2026-04-26 Lions Gibraltar D 3-370.4 1629 1261 78.65% 13.16% 8.19%+2.14 -6.4 5
2026-04-26 @ St. Joseph's D 3-370.4 1261 1629 8.19% 13.16% 78.65%-2.14 +6.4 5

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-02-21 4.50% Lynx 1252 1 @ St. Joseph's 1733 0
2 2025-09-13 5.00% Mons Calpe S.C. 1104 3 @ St. Joseph's 1565 1
3 2025-11-02 6.80% College 1975 872 4 @ Manchester 62 1276 3
4 2025-12-06 10.54% @ FCB Magpies 1103 2 Mons Calpe S.C. 1423 1
5 2025-11-02 16.41% Europa Point 899 1 @ FCB Magpies 1130 0
6 2025-11-24 16.67% College 1975 887 1 @ FCB Magpies 1115 0
7 2025-08-30 17.30% Lynx 1160 2 @ Europa 1381 0
8 2025-12-07 21.22% @ Europa Point 1099 2 Lions Gibraltar 1275 1
9 2026-04-18 22.02% @ Mons Calpe S.C. 1494 3 St. Joseph's 1662 2
10 2025-08-16 26.79% Mons Calpe S.C. 957 5 @ College 1975 1082 0
11 2025-09-29 26.79% Lions Gibraltar 1180 4 @ Manchester 62 1304 2
12 2026-04-25 29.73% @ Europa 1427 4 Mons Calpe S.C. 1527 1
13 2025-11-22 29.76% @ Europa Point 900 3 Glacis United 999 2
14 2025-12-15 29.94% Glacis United 962 3 @ Manchester 62 1060 0
15 2025-11-21 30.09% @ Lions Gibraltar 1273 1 Europa 1370 0
16 2025-12-01 33.69% Lynx 1238 1 @ Lions Gibraltar 1306 0
17 2025-10-05 34.84% Lions Gibraltar 1230 2 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 1289 0
18 2025-08-23 35.79% Lions Gibraltar 1136 2 @ Lynx 1188 1
19 2025-10-26 38.10% Lynx 1140 3 @ FCB Magpies 1176 1
20 2025-11-28 38.23% Europa Point 929 7 @ Hound Dogs 963 0
21 2025-11-29 38.29% @ FCB Magpies 1075 1 Manchester 62 1109 0
22 2026-04-19 38.50% Lions Gibraltar 1233 1 @ Lynx 1266 0
23 2026-01-14 39.96% St. Joseph's 1655 4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1678 1
24 2026-03-21 40.80% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1677 1 St. Joseph's 1693 0
25 2025-10-04 41.87% @ Europa Point 894 1 College 1975 903 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-11-28 169.74 Europa Point 7 929 38.23% @ Hound Dogs 0 963 47.98% 13.80%
2 2025-08-16 150.90 Mons Calpe S.C. 5 957 26.79% @ College 1975 0 1082 59.48% 13.73%
3 2025-11-22 93.50 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 6 1310 57.48% Manchester 62 0 1202 28.77% 13.75%
4 2025-12-15 88.90 Glacis United 3 962 29.94% @ Manchester 62 0 1060 56.30% 13.76%
5 2025-09-27 79.03 Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1210 49.64% @ Hound Dogs 0 1163 36.57% 13.79%
6 2025-09-13 77.75 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1104 5.00% @ St. Joseph's 1 1565 82.19% 12.81%
7 2026-04-25 75.24 @ Europa 4 1427 29.73% Mons Calpe S.C. 1 1527 56.51% 13.76%
8 2025-08-30 75.01 Lynx 2 1160 17.30% @ Europa 0 1381 69.14% 13.57%
9 2025-11-09 63.93 Lynx 4 1154 57.45% @ Hound Dogs 0 1047 28.80% 13.75%
10 2026-01-14 62.57 St. Joseph's 4 1655 39.96% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1678 46.24% 13.80%
11 2026-01-19 56.50 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1378 52.38% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 1311 33.84% 13.78%
12 2025-10-05 56.18 Lions Gibraltar 2 1230 34.84% @ Mons Calpe S.C. 0 1289 51.37% 13.79%
13 2026-02-20 55.03 FCB Magpies 3 1174 53.37% @ Europa Point 0 1099 32.85% 13.78%
14 2026-01-12 54.93 @ Lions Gibraltar 7 1256 72.69% Manchester 62 0 990 13.84% 13.46%
15 2025-09-22 53.05 @ Manchester 62 4 1251 47.97% Hound Dogs 1 1216 38.24% 13.80%
16 2025-08-30 51.54 St. Joseph's 5 1514 68.28% @ Manchester 62 0 1303 18.13% 13.59%
17 2025-09-29 49.99 Lions Gibraltar 4 1180 26.79% @ Manchester 62 2 1304 59.48% 13.73%
18 2026-02-21 47.95 Lynx 1 1252 4.50% @ St. Joseph's 0 1733 82.77% 12.73%
19 2025-10-26 45.83 Lynx 3 1140 38.10% @ FCB Magpies 1 1176 48.10% 13.80%
20 2025-10-19 43.91 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 5 1233 49.89% Lynx 2 1184 36.32% 13.79%
21 2025-12-06 41.47 @ FCB Magpies 2 1103 10.54% Mons Calpe S.C. 1 1423 76.14% 13.31%
22 2025-11-02 40.52 College 1975 4 872 6.80% @ Manchester 62 3 1276 80.17% 13.03%
23 2025-11-02 40.32 Europa Point 1 899 16.41% @ FCB Magpies 0 1130 70.05% 13.54%
24 2025-12-06 40.32 Europa 2 1325 50.97% @ Lynx 0 1268 35.24% 13.79%
25 2025-11-24 40.16 College 1975 1 887 16.67% @ FCB Magpies 0 1115 69.78% 13.55%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-11-23 72.6 @ St. Joseph's 1 1592 33.88% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1659 52.34% 13.78%
2 2026-04-18 72.0 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1494 22.02% St. Joseph's 2 1662 64.31% 13.67%
3 2026-04-26 70.4 @ St. Joseph's 3 1629 78.65% Lions Gibraltar 3 1261 8.19% 13.16%
4 2026-04-11 65.8 @ Europa 0 1437 16.18% St. Joseph's 0 1671 70.29% 13.54%
5 2025-11-02 64.8 College 1975 4 872 6.80% @ Manchester 62 3 1276 80.17% 13.03%
6 2026-02-12 63.2 @ Europa 0 1391 14.89% Lincoln Red Imps 0 1642 71.61% 13.50%
7 2026-04-11 63.1 @ Lions Gibraltar 1 1221 4.26% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1712 83.06% 12.69%
8 2026-01-14 62.9 St. Joseph's 4 1655 39.96% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1678 46.24% 13.80%
9 2026-02-21 62.7 Lynx 1 1252 4.50% @ St. Joseph's 0 1733 82.77% 12.73%
10 2026-03-21 61.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1677 40.80% St. Joseph's 0 1693 45.39% 13.80%
11 2025-08-23 60.4 @ FCB Magpies 2 1220 31.47% Manchester 62 2 1305 54.76% 13.77%
12 2025-09-14 60.0 @ Europa Point 2 899 9.66% Lynx 2 1235 77.07% 13.26%
13 2025-09-13 57.7 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1104 5.00% @ St. Joseph's 1 1565 82.19% 12.81%
14 2025-12-06 56.1 @ FCB Magpies 2 1103 10.54% Mons Calpe S.C. 1 1423 76.14% 13.31%
15 2026-01-11 55.8 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 1 1390 86.34% Hound Dogs 1 737 1.75% 11.91%
16 2026-04-25 55.8 @ Europa 4 1427 29.73% Mons Calpe S.C. 1 1527 56.51% 13.76%
17 2026-01-24 55.5 @ FCB Magpies 1 1167 31.21% Lions Gibraltar 1 1254 55.03% 13.77%
18 2025-09-15 55.4 @ College 1975 1 906 10.56% Hound Dogs 1 1226 76.13% 13.32%
19 2025-08-16 55.3 @ Hound Dogs 1 1204 52.92% Lions Gibraltar 1 1133 33.30% 13.78%
20 2026-02-08 55.3 @ Hound Dogs 1 737 15.71% Glacis United 1 977 70.77% 13.52%
21 2025-12-08 55.2 @ Glacis United 1 964 48.71% College 1975 1 924 37.50% 13.80%
22 2026-02-21 55.2 @ College 1975 1 929 49.62% Manchester 62 1 882 36.59% 13.79%
23 2025-11-22 54.4 @ Europa Point 3 900 29.76% Glacis United 2 999 56.48% 13.76%
24 2025-09-29 54.3 Lions Gibraltar 4 1180 26.79% @ Manchester 62 2 1304 59.48% 13.73%
25 2025-12-07 52.5 @ Europa Point 2 1099 21.22% Lions Gibraltar 1 1275 65.13% 13.65%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-01-25 23.3 @ St. Joseph's 6 1721 89.75% Hound Dogs 0 738 0.28% 9.97%
2 2026-02-22 24.0 @ Europa 6 1400 86.38% Hound Dogs 0 745 1.73% 11.90%
3 2025-09-28 24.2 @ Lincoln Red Imps 7 1631 87.40% Europa Point 0 899 1.13% 11.48%
4 2026-02-08 24.2 Lincoln Red Imps 10 1636 87.58% @ Manchester 62 0 888 1.03% 11.39%
5 2025-12-07 24.4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1662 88.86% Hound Dogs 0 787 0.51% 10.64%
6 2025-08-17 24.8 @ St. Joseph's 6 1497 84.60% Europa Point 0 942 3.00% 12.40%
7 2025-10-02 25.1 @ St. Joseph's 6 1517 84.09% Glacis United 0 985 3.41% 12.51%
8 2026-03-02 25.1 Europa 5 1406 83.84% @ Manchester 62 0 884 3.60% 12.55%
9 2026-01-25 25.4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1633 86.96% College 1975 0 936 1.37% 11.67%
10 2025-08-24 25.5 @ St. Joseph's 4 1507 85.04% College 1975 0 931 2.66% 12.29%
11 2025-10-18 25.9 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1635 87.70% @ College 1975 0 877 0.97% 11.33%
12 2026-03-03 26.3 St. Joseph's 7 1685 86.17% @ Europa Point 0 1044 1.86% 11.97%
13 2025-10-19 26.4 St. Joseph's 5 1529 82.27% @ Hound Dogs 0 1065 4.93% 12.80%
14 2025-12-05 26.4 @ St. Joseph's 10 1598 83.74% Manchester 62 0 1081 3.69% 12.57%
15 2025-12-03 26.5 Europa 3 1318 83.92% @ Hound Dogs 0 794 3.54% 12.54%
16 2026-01-17 26.6 St. Joseph's 4 1718 87.28% @ Glacis United 0 995 1.19% 11.53%
17 2025-11-30 26.8 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1656 86.82% @ Glacis United 0 970 1.45% 11.73%
18 2026-01-17 27.6 FCB Magpies 3 1154 80.19% @ Hound Dogs 0 750 6.78% 13.03%
19 2026-01-18 27.7 Lynx 5 1236 75.01% @ Manchester 62 0 935 11.62% 13.37%
20 2026-01-12 28.1 @ Lions Gibraltar 7 1256 72.69% Manchester 62 0 990 13.84% 13.46%
21 2025-12-20 28.2 Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1364 75.76% @ Glacis United 0 1051 10.90% 13.33%
22 2026-03-04 28.3 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 2 1417 83.04% College 1975 0 927 4.27% 12.69%
23 2026-02-23 28.4 Lions Gibraltar 5 1235 72.68% @ Glacis United 0 969 13.85% 13.46%
24 2025-09-21 28.7 @ Europa 2 1344 81.44% Europa Point 0 906 5.65% 12.90%
25 2025-11-01 28.7 St. Joseph's 7 1560 78.90% @ Lynx 0 1186 7.96% 13.14%