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2002-03 Nemzeti Bajnokság I Season

192 games

Final

Champion

MTK Budapest

21st Title

Last Title: 1998-99

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ferencvaros

9.30 points above expected

48 points · 38.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dunaferr

11.43 points below expected

18 points · 29.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros 22 15 3 4 48 41 17 +24 38.70 +9.30
2 MTK Hungaria 22 14 5 3 47 42 21 +21 39.19 +7.81
3 Ujpest 22 12 4 6 40 45 29 +16 33.05 +6.95
4 Debrecen VSC 22 10 9 3 39 44 30 +14 32.11 +6.89
5 Siofok 22 8 8 6 32 28 27 +1 28.80 +3.20
6 Gyor 22 9 5 8 32 35 35 0 31.35 +0.65
7 Zalaegerszeg 22 8 6 8 30 37 36 +1 32.45 -2.45
8 Videoton 22 7 6 9 27 29 30 -1 27.68 -0.68
9 Sopron 22 6 5 11 23 33 36 -3 25.35 -2.35
10 Dunaferr 22 4 6 12 18 28 43 -15 29.43 -11.43
11 Kispest Honved 22 4 3 15 15 27 51 -24 21.92 -6.92
12 Bekescsaba 22 4 2 16 14 25 59 -34 22.91 -8.91
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Zalaegerszeg 10 7 2 1 23 25 13 +12 — —
2 MTK Hungaria 10 6 1 3 19 17 13 +4 — —
3 Bekescsaba 10 5 3 2 18 17 12 +5 — —
4 Ferencvaros 10 4 4 2 16 9 7 +2 — —
5 Siofok 10 4 3 3 15 18 17 +1 — —
6 Debrecen VSC 10 3 5 2 14 13 8 +5 — —
7 Kispest Honved 10 4 2 4 14 16 15 +1 — —
8 Videoton 10 4 1 5 13 17 11 +6 — —
9 Sopron 10 3 4 3 13 14 18 -4 — —
10 Ujpest 10 3 3 4 12 9 12 -3 — —
11 Gyor 10 0 4 6 4 6 15 -9 — —
12 Dunaferr 10 0 2 8 2 9 29 -20 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ferencvaros 48 38.70 +9.30
2 MTK Hungaria 47 39.19 +7.81
3 Ujpest 40 33.05 +6.95
4 Debrecen VSC 39 32.11 +6.89
5 Siofok 32 28.80 +3.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dunaferr 18 29.43 -11.43
2 Bekescsaba 14 22.91 -8.91
3 Kispest Honved 15 21.92 -6.92
4 Zalaegerszeg 30 32.45 -2.45
5 Sopron 23 25.35 -2.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Videoton 4 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 100
2 Gyor 4 Jul 27 – Aug 17 1 in 72
3 Bekescsaba 2 Nov 2 – Nov 8 1 in 60
4 MTK Hungaria 5 Aug 23 – Sep 28 1 in 56
5 Siofok 4 Aug 10 – Aug 31 1 in 56

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bekescsaba 8 Aug 31 – Oct 26 1 in 330
2 Gyor 4 Nov 15 – Mar 8 1 in 61
3 Sopron 4 Jul 27 – Aug 24 1 in 32
4 Kispest Honved 5 Sep 20 – Oct 26 1 in 21
5 Ferencvaros 2 Sep 1 – Sep 14 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Debrecen VSC 13 Aug 24 – Nov 30 1 in 353
2 Bekescsaba 3 Nov 2 – Nov 16 1 in 13
3 Gyor 5 Jul 27 – Aug 24 1 in 12
4 Siofok 5 Aug 3 – Aug 31 1 in 10
5 Videoton 4 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunaferr 9 Oct 5 – Mar 7 1 in 26
2 MTK Hungaria 3 Mar 15 – Apr 5 1 in 19
3 Gyor 7 Nov 15 – Mar 22 1 in 17
4 Debrecen VSC 5 Oct 26 – Nov 23 1 in 16
5 Ferencvaros 4 Aug 24 – Sep 23 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
MTK Hungaria 1681 66 +46 13 8.0 +5.0
Ferencvaros 1668 64 -23 6 8.3 -2.3
Zalaegerszeg 1584 53 +25 11 9.1 +1.9
Debrecen VSC 1663 53 +21 8 7.6 +0.4
Ujpest 1588 52 -9 7 7.2 -0.2
Siofok 1553 47 +2 6 6.3 -0.3
Videoton 1546 40 -67 1 9.6 -8.6
Sopron 1471 36 -2 8 7.1 +0.9
Gyor 1435 36 -37 1 3.9 -2.9
Bekescsaba 1437 32 +64 11 5.7 +5.3
Kispest Honved 1407 29 +28 8 5.9 +2.1
Dunaferr 1283 20 -48 1 4.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BEK DV DUN FER GYO KH MH SIO SOP UJP VID ZAL
Bekescsaba —
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.23
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.85
0-1-1
1.14
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
2.73
0-0-2
1.55
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
1.46
Debrecen VSC
2-0-0
4.11
—
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
1.96
2-0-0
2.56
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
2.23
0-2-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.71
0-2-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.60
Dunaferr
2-0-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.75
—
0-1-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
3.41
0-1-1
1.58
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.49
Ferencvaros
1-0-1
3.92
0-1-1
3.52
1-1-0
3.66
—
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
3.43
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
3.52
Gyor
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-2
2.93
2-0-0
2.87
0-0-2
2.04
—
2-0-0
3.46
1-0-1
2.42
0-2-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.17
0-1-1
2.43
Kispest Honved
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
1.77
2-0-0
2.08
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
2.04
—
0-0-2
1.42
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
1.98
MTK Hungaria
1-1-0
4.42
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.92
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
4.12
—
2-0-0
3.61
0-1-1
3.85
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.14
Siofok
1-1-0
3.01
0-2-0
2.40
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.06
0-2-0
2.89
1-0-1
3.21
0-0-2
1.87
—
2-0-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
2.59
Sopron
2-0-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.53
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.92
1-1-0
1.66
0-0-2
2.38
—
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.19
Ujpest
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
1.94
1-1-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.81
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.38
—
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.94
Videoton
1-0-1
2.93
0-2-0
2.40
1-1-0
2.88
0-0-2
1.88
1-0-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
1.98
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.38
—
2-0-0
2.10
Zalaegerszeg
1-0-1
4.06
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.00
0-1-1
1.96
1-1-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.52
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
3.38
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +13.9
Allowed 0.84 -8.9
Differential 0.94 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.85%5.47%5.99%3.65%1.56%0.26%25.78%
15.47%8.33%7.03%5.21%1.82%0.52%28.39%
25.99%7.03%5.21%2.86%1.56%0.78%23.44%
33.65%5.21%2.86%2.60%0.26%0.52%15.10%
41.56%1.82%1.56%0.26%——5.21%
5+0.26%0.52%0.78%0.52%——2.08%
Total25.78%28.39%23.44%15.10%5.21%2.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.83
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%15.62%—3.12%31.25%
16.25%9.38%—9.38%3.12%3.12%31.25%
23.12%—6.25%—6.25%3.12%18.75%
3—12.50%————12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total15.62%21.88%18.75%25.00%9.38%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 2.22 -0.91
SD 1.23 1.60 2.39
CV 0.94 0.72 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%3.12%————21.88%
13.12%15.62%6.25%———25.00%
26.25%6.25%6.25%——3.12%21.88%
36.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
4———————
5+—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
Total34.38%34.38%18.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.19 +0.59
SD 1.48 1.26 1.50
CV 0.83 1.06 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
13.12%3.12%12.50%6.25%9.38%3.12%37.50%
2——9.38%6.25%——15.62%
33.12%6.25%—6.25%——15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%15.62%28.12%25.00%15.62%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 2.25 -1.09
SD 1.05 1.34 1.77
CV 0.91 0.60 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
112.50%6.25%3.12%———21.88%
212.50%12.50%3.12%———28.12%
36.25%3.12%3.12%———12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total50.00%28.12%18.75%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.75 +0.81
SD 1.37 0.88 1.67
CV 0.87 1.17 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%9.38%—3.12%—31.25%
16.25%9.38%6.25%12.50%——34.38%
26.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%—3.12%21.88%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total25.00%25.00%28.12%15.62%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.56 -0.28
SD 1.30 1.29 1.73
CV 1.02 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—9.38%—6.25%—21.88%
16.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%3.12%—40.62%
26.25%3.12%—6.25%6.25%—21.88%
3—6.25%—3.12%—3.12%12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%18.75%21.88%21.88%15.62%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 2.06 -0.72
SD 1.07 1.46 1.78
CV 0.79 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%————18.75%
118.75%—6.25%———25.00%
23.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
36.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
Total40.62%31.25%12.50%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 1.06 +0.78
SD 1.39 1.16 1.34
CV 0.76 1.09 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%6.25%—3.12%—25.00%
13.12%25.00%—3.12%——31.25%
26.25%15.62%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
3——3.12%——3.12%6.25%
4—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
5+———————
Total15.62%53.12%18.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.38 +0.06
SD 1.22 1.13 1.48
CV 0.85 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
1—6.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—25.00%
23.12%6.25%9.38%3.12%——21.88%
3—3.12%6.25%3.12%——12.50%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total15.62%25.00%37.50%18.75%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.69 -0.22
SD 1.39 1.06 1.81
CV 0.95 0.63 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
13.12%6.25%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
23.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
36.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total21.88%40.62%25.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.28 +0.41
SD 1.42 0.96 1.64
CV 0.84 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
1—3.12%12.50%6.25%3.12%—25.00%
212.50%3.12%6.25%3.12%3.12%—28.12%
39.38%—3.12%———12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total40.62%15.62%25.00%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.28 +0.16
SD 1.22 1.30 1.95
CV 0.85 1.02 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.12%3.12%6.25%——12.50%
13.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%——25.00%
29.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
36.25%3.12%6.25%9.38%——25.00%
4—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%28.12%21.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.53 +0.41
SD 1.19 1.05 1.68
CV 0.61 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
MTK Hungaria 1681 47 39.19 +7.81 88.0% 22 30 34 40 43 50 54
Ferencvaros 1668 48 38.70 +9.30 95.0% 18 28 34 38 43 48 57
Debrecen VSC 1663 39 32.11 +6.89 93.0% 18 23 28 32 36 41 46
Ujpest 1588 40 33.05 +6.95 91.0% 20 23 30 32 36 44 51
Zalaegerszeg 1584 30 32.45 -2.45 37.0% 14 22 28 32 37 44 51
Siofok 1553 32 28.80 +3.20 73.0% 12 19 25 29 33 36 40
Videoton 1546 27 27.68 -0.68 48.0% 13 18 23 28 32 37 47
Sopron 1471 23 25.35 -2.35 34.0% 11 15 21 25 29 35 39
Bekescsaba 1437 14 22.91 -8.91 6.0% 7 11 19 23 27 31 39
Gyor 1435 32 31.35 +0.65 58.0% 13 22 28 32 35 39 45
Kispest Honved 1407 15 21.92 -6.92 14.0% 9 12 17 22 26 31 35
Dunaferr 1283 18 29.43 -11.43 3.0% 17 19 25 29 33 40 46

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.62%
Slight Edge
45.31%25.00%29.69%
Elo Value
Home Edge
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
054.74500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.34 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Wide Open
123410
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.82 * Some Luck: 4.82 to 7.23 * Lucky: 7.23 to 9.64 * Wild Swing: 9.64 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.77 * Close: 1.77 to 2.65 * Off: 2.65 to 3.54 * Way Off: 3.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.60 points
Some Luck
06.0315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.215
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.00%
Ferencvaros
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.00%
Dunaferr
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 113.73
1.88
Strong Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
71%
Slight Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.17
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.28
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.048
Well Within Noise
00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Ferencvaros34.00%23.00%18.00%7.00%8.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%——1.00%
MTK Hungaria33.00%28.00%16.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%—2.00%———
Ujpest10.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%19.00%20.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%
Debrecen VSC4.00%9.00%11.00%23.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%9.00%3.00%5.00%1.00%
Siofok1.00%6.00%5.00%11.00%7.00%9.00%17.00%12.00%13.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%
Gyor4.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%12.00%19.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%
Zalaegerszeg9.00%11.00%8.00%12.00%17.00%6.00%12.00%6.00%7.00%6.00%2.00%4.00%
Videoton2.00%—5.00%12.00%6.00%11.00%9.00%13.00%6.00%16.00%12.00%8.00%
Sopron——5.00%2.00%3.00%5.00%9.00%16.00%15.00%17.00%17.00%11.00%
Dunaferr3.00%6.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%11.00%11.00%3.00%
Kispest Honved———1.00%2.00%3.00%3.00%10.00%13.00%12.00%18.00%38.00%
Bekescsaba——2.00%1.00%5.00%2.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%14.00%22.00%27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Debrecen VSC 100% —
Ferencvaros 100% —
MTK Hungaria 100% —
Ujpest 100% —
Zalaegerszeg 94.00% 6.00%
Gyor 91.00% 9.00%
Siofok 88.00% 12.00%
Dunaferr 87.00% 13.00%
Videoton 85.00% 15.00%
Sopron 83.00% 17.00%
Bekescsaba 39.00% 61.00%
Kispest Honved 33.00% 67.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-07-26 Videoton W 3-152.7 1537 1527 45.70% 26.21% 28.09%+0.35 +16.5 3
2002-07-26 @ MTK Hungaria L 1-352.7 1527 1537 28.09% 26.21% 45.70%-0.35 -16.5 0
2002-07-27 Debrecen VSC L 1-259.4 1507 1506 44.43% 26.29% 29.28%+0.30 -13.6 0
2002-07-27 @ Sopron W 2-159.4 1506 1507 29.28% 26.29% 44.43%-0.30 +13.6 3
2002-07-27 Ferencvaros L 0-249.1 1493 1575 32.98% 26.46% 40.57%-0.15 -21.6 0
2002-07-27 @ Siofok W 2-049.1 1575 1493 40.57% 26.46% 32.98%+0.15 +21.6 3
2002-07-27 Gyor L 2-462.1 1536 1504 48.40% 25.99% 25.62%+0.47 -22.5 0
2002-07-27 @ Bekescsaba W 4-262.1 1504 1536 25.62% 25.99% 48.40%-0.47 +22.5 3
2002-07-27 Ujpest W 3-151.8 1568 1514 51.15% 25.68% 23.16%+0.59 +14.1 3
2002-07-27 @ Dunaferr L 1-351.8 1514 1568 23.16% 25.68% 51.15%-0.59 -14.1 0
2002-07-27 Zalaegerszeg D 3-373.8 1493 1557 35.42% 26.50% 38.07%-0.05 +0.1 1
2002-07-27 @ Kispest Honved D 3-373.8 1557 1493 38.07% 26.50% 35.42%+0.05 -0.1 1
2002-08-02 MTK Hungaria L 1-258.7 1500 1554 36.93% 26.51% 36.56%+0.01 -11.8 0
2002-08-02 @ Ujpest W 2-158.7 1554 1500 36.56% 26.51% 36.93%-0.01 +11.8 6
2002-08-03 Dunaferr W 3-265.7 1520 1583 35.57% 26.50% 37.93%-0.05 +11.4 6
2002-08-03 @ Debrecen VSC L 2-365.7 1583 1520 37.93% 26.50% 35.57%+0.05 -11.4 3
2002-08-03 Videoton D 1-161.7 1472 1510 39.03% 26.49% 34.48%+0.09 -0.3 1
2002-08-03 @ Siofok D 1-161.7 1510 1472 34.48% 26.49% 39.03%-0.09 +0.3 1
2002-08-03 Kispest Honved W 4-041.7 1596 1493 56.70% 24.79% 18.51%+0.86 +25.5 6
2002-08-03 @ Ferencvaros L 0-441.7 1493 1596 18.51% 24.79% 56.70%-0.86 -25.5 1
2002-08-03 Sopron W 2-044.9 1527 1493 48.66% 25.96% 25.38%+0.48 +17.6 6
2002-08-03 @ Gyor L 0-244.9 1493 1527 25.38% 25.96% 48.66%-0.48 -17.6 0
2002-08-09 Ujpest L 1-259.6 1511 1488 47.22% 26.09% 26.69%+0.42 -14.2 1
2002-08-09 @ Videoton W 2-159.6 1488 1511 26.69% 26.09% 47.22%-0.42 +14.2 3
2002-08-10 Debrecen VSC W 4-364.7 1565 1531 48.76% 25.95% 25.29%+0.49 +8.1 9
2002-08-10 @ MTK Hungaria L 3-464.7 1531 1565 25.29% 25.95% 48.76%-0.49 -8.1 6
2002-08-10 Ferencvaros L 0-250.2 1513 1622 29.44% 26.30% 44.25%-0.29 -19.8 0
2002-08-10 @ Bekescsaba W 2-050.2 1622 1513 44.25% 26.30% 29.44%+0.29 +19.8 9
2002-08-10 Gyor L 1-263.9 1571 1544 47.83% 26.04% 26.14%+0.45 -14.4 3
2002-08-10 @ Dunaferr W 2-163.9 1544 1571 26.14% 26.04% 47.83%-0.45 +14.4 9
2002-08-10 Siofok L 1-256.4 1467 1471 43.81% 26.33% 29.87%+0.28 -13.4 1
2002-08-10 @ Kispest Honved W 2-156.4 1471 1467 29.87% 26.33% 43.81%-0.28 +13.4 4
2002-08-16 Videoton D 0-056.6 1454 1496 38.49% 26.50% 35.01%+0.07 -0.2 2
2002-08-16 @ Kispest Honved D 0-056.6 1496 1454 35.01% 26.50% 38.49%-0.07 +0.2 2
2002-08-17 Bekescsaba W 4-147.4 1485 1493 43.18% 26.36% 30.46%+0.25 +24.9 7
2002-08-17 @ Siofok L 1-447.4 1493 1485 30.46% 26.36% 43.18%-0.25 -24.9 0
2002-08-17 MTK Hungaria W 1-054.7 1559 1574 42.36% 26.39% 31.25%+0.22 +11.0 12
2002-08-17 @ Gyor L 0-154.7 1574 1559 31.25% 26.39% 42.36%-0.22 -11.0 9
2002-08-18 Sopron W 2-044.1 1642 1476 62.76% 23.31% 13.92%+1.20 +10.3 12
2002-08-18 @ Ferencvaros L 0-244.1 1476 1642 13.92% 23.31% 62.76%-1.20 -10.2 0
2002-08-18 Ujpest L 2-557.3 1523 1503 46.97% 26.11% 26.92%+0.41 -30.1 6
2002-08-18 @ Debrecen VSC W 5-257.3 1503 1523 26.92% 26.11% 46.97%-0.41 +30.1 6
2002-08-18 Zalaegerszeg D 3-376.0 1557 1556 44.39% 26.29% 29.32%+0.30 -0.6 4
2002-08-18 @ Dunaferr D 3-376.0 1556 1557 29.32% 26.29% 44.39%-0.30 +0.6 2
2002-08-23 Zalaegerszeg W 3-046.8 1563 1557 45.06% 26.25% 28.69%+0.33 +28.2 12
2002-08-23 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-346.8 1557 1563 28.69% 26.25% 45.06%-0.33 -28.2 2
2002-08-24 Debrecen VSC D 2-267.4 1497 1493 44.85% 26.27% 28.89%+0.32 -0.8 3
2002-08-24 @ Videoton D 2-267.4 1493 1497 28.89% 26.27% 44.85%-0.32 +0.8 7
2002-08-24 Ferencvaros D 2-274.3 1556 1652 31.11% 26.39% 42.50%-0.22 +0.6 5
2002-08-24 @ Dunaferr D 2-274.3 1652 1556 42.50% 26.39% 31.11%+0.22 -0.6 13
2002-08-24 Gyor D 2-271.4 1533 1570 39.28% 26.49% 34.23%+0.10 -0.2 7
2002-08-24 @ Ujpest D 2-271.4 1570 1533 34.23% 26.49% 39.28%-0.10 +0.2 13
2002-08-24 Kispest Honved W 4-038.8 1468 1454 46.29% 26.17% 27.54%+0.38 +35.6 3
2002-08-24 @ Bekescsaba L 0-438.8 1454 1468 27.54% 26.17% 46.29%-0.38 -35.6 2
2002-08-24 Siofok L 1-256.1 1465 1510 38.25% 26.50% 35.25%+0.06 -12.1 0
2002-08-24 @ Sopron W 2-156.1 1510 1465 35.25% 26.50% 38.25%-0.06 +12.1 10
2002-08-31 Debrecen VSC L 0-158.8 1570 1494 53.72% 25.32% 20.96%+0.72 -16.9 13
2002-08-31 @ Gyor W 1-058.8 1494 1570 20.96% 25.32% 53.72%-0.72 +16.9 10
2002-08-31 Dunaferr W 2-049.8 1522 1557 39.53% 26.48% 33.99%+0.11 +22.1 13
2002-08-31 @ Siofok L 0-249.8 1557 1522 33.99% 26.48% 39.53%-0.11 -22.1 5
2002-08-31 Videoton L 0-250.3 1504 1496 45.44% 26.23% 28.33%+0.34 -27.6 3
2002-08-31 @ Bekescsaba W 2-050.3 1496 1504 28.33% 26.23% 45.44%-0.34 +27.6 6
2002-08-31 Sopron D 1-157.9 1418 1453 39.51% 26.48% 34.01%+0.11 -0.4 3
2002-08-31 @ Kispest Honved D 1-157.9 1453 1418 34.01% 26.48% 39.51%-0.11 +0.4 1
2002-09-01 MTK Hungaria L 0-163.2 1651 1591 51.93% 25.58% 22.49%+0.63 -16.4 13
2002-09-01 @ Ferencvaros W 1-063.2 1591 1651 22.49% 25.58% 51.93%-0.63 +16.4 15
2002-09-02 Zalaegerszeg L 0-252.4 1533 1529 44.83% 26.27% 28.91%+0.32 -27.3 7
2002-09-02 @ Ujpest W 2-052.4 1529 1533 28.91% 26.27% 44.83%-0.32 +27.3 5
2002-09-13 Zalaegerszeg W 2-158.7 1510 1556 38.03% 26.50% 35.47%+0.05 +11.4 13
2002-09-13 @ Debrecen VSC L 1-258.7 1556 1510 35.47% 26.50% 38.03%-0.05 -11.4 5
2002-09-14 Ferencvaros W 3-052.9 1505 1635 26.90% 26.11% 46.99%-0.41 +41.2 10
2002-09-14 @ Ujpest L 0-352.9 1635 1505 46.99% 26.11% 26.90%+0.41 -41.2 13
2002-09-14 Gyor L 1-454.0 1523 1553 40.30% 26.46% 33.24%+0.14 -30.7 6
2002-09-14 @ Videoton W 4-154.0 1553 1523 33.24% 26.46% 40.30%-0.14 +30.8 16
2002-09-14 Kispest Honved L 1-357.1 1535 1418 58.07% 24.51% 17.42%+0.94 -29.6 5
2002-09-14 @ Dunaferr W 3-157.1 1418 1535 17.42% 24.51% 58.07%-0.94 +29.6 6
2002-09-14 Siofok W 1-052.2 1607 1544 52.24% 25.54% 22.23%+0.64 +8.4 18
2002-09-14 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-152.2 1544 1607 22.23% 25.54% 52.24%-0.64 -8.4 13
2002-09-15 Bekescsaba W 3-149.2 1454 1476 41.25% 26.44% 32.32%+0.17 +18.4 4
2002-09-15 @ Sopron L 1-349.2 1476 1454 32.32% 26.44% 41.25%-0.17 -18.4 3
2002-09-20 MTK Hungaria L 3-557.3 1447 1615 22.68% 25.61% 51.71%-0.62 -11.7 6
2002-09-20 @ Kispest Honved W 5-357.3 1615 1447 51.71% 25.61% 22.68%+0.62 +11.7 21
2002-09-21 Dunaferr L 1-352.0 1458 1505 37.84% 26.50% 35.65%+0.04 -20.7 3
2002-09-21 @ Bekescsaba W 3-152.0 1505 1458 35.65% 26.50% 37.84%-0.04 +20.7 8
2002-09-21 Videoton W 2-045.0 1472 1493 41.55% 26.43% 32.02%+0.19 +21.1 7
2002-09-21 @ Sopron L 0-245.0 1493 1472 32.02% 26.43% 41.55%-0.19 -21.1 6
2002-09-22 Gyor W 2-051.6 1545 1584 38.99% 26.49% 34.52%+0.09 +22.4 8
2002-09-22 @ Zalaegerszeg L 0-251.6 1584 1545 34.52% 26.49% 38.99%-0.09 -22.4 16
2002-09-22 Ujpest W 3-262.8 1535 1547 42.85% 26.37% 30.78%+0.24 +9.7 16
2002-09-22 @ Siofok L 2-362.8 1547 1535 30.78% 26.37% 42.85%-0.24 -9.7 10
2002-09-23 Debrecen VSC D 0-062.9 1594 1522 53.21% 25.40% 21.39%+0.69 -2.5 14
2002-09-23 @ Ferencvaros D 0-062.9 1522 1594 21.39% 25.40% 53.21%-0.69 +2.5 14
2002-09-25 Zalaegerszeg D 2-269.9 1493 1567 34.02% 26.48% 39.49%-0.11 +0.3 8
2002-09-25 @ Sopron D 2-269.9 1567 1493 39.49% 26.48% 34.02%+0.11 -0.3 9
2002-09-27 Ferencvaros L 1-262.9 1561 1591 40.28% 26.46% 33.25%+0.14 -12.5 16
2002-09-27 @ Gyor W 2-162.9 1591 1561 33.25% 26.46% 40.28%-0.14 +12.5 17
2002-09-28 Bekescsaba W 3-039.1 1627 1437 64.84% 22.66% 12.50%+1.33 +13.4 24
2002-09-28 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-339.1 1437 1627 12.50% 22.66% 64.84%-1.33 -13.4 3
2002-09-28 Kispest Honved W 4-250.4 1537 1435 56.44% 24.84% 18.71%+0.85 +10.5 13
2002-09-28 @ Ujpest L 2-450.4 1435 1537 18.71% 24.84% 56.44%-0.85 -10.5 6
2002-09-28 Sopron W 1-048.9 1526 1493 48.52% 25.97% 25.51%+0.48 +9.4 11
2002-09-28 @ Dunaferr L 0-148.9 1493 1526 25.51% 25.97% 48.52%-0.48 -9.4 8
2002-09-28 Zalaegerszeg W 2-159.7 1472 1567 31.16% 26.39% 42.45%-0.22 +13.1 9
2002-09-28 @ Videoton L 1-259.7 1567 1472 42.45% 26.39% 31.16%+0.22 -13.1 9
2002-09-29 Siofok D 1-164.9 1524 1545 41.54% 26.43% 32.03%+0.19 -0.6 15
2002-09-29 @ Debrecen VSC D 1-164.9 1545 1524 32.03% 26.43% 41.54%-0.19 +0.6 17
2002-10-04 Debrecen VSC L 1-349.3 1425 1524 30.71% 26.37% 42.92%-0.24 -17.7 6
2002-10-04 @ Kispest Honved W 3-149.3 1524 1425 42.92% 26.37% 30.71%+0.24 +17.7 18
2002-10-05 Videoton D 0-059.4 1535 1485 50.73% 25.73% 23.54%+0.57 -2.1 12
2002-10-05 @ Dunaferr D 0-059.4 1485 1535 23.54% 25.73% 50.73%-0.57 +2.1 10
2002-10-05 Gyor D 1-165.8 1546 1549 43.92% 26.32% 29.77%+0.28 -0.9 18
2002-10-05 @ Siofok D 1-165.8 1549 1546 29.77% 26.32% 43.92%-0.28 +1.0 17
2002-10-05 MTK Hungaria W 3-269.9 1484 1641 23.91% 25.78% 50.30%-0.55 +14.3 11
2002-10-05 @ Sopron L 2-369.9 1641 1484 50.30% 25.78% 23.91%+0.55 -14.3 24
2002-10-06 Ujpest L 1-349.2 1424 1547 27.66% 26.18% 46.16%-0.37 -16.3 3
2002-10-06 @ Bekescsaba W 3-149.2 1547 1424 46.16% 26.18% 27.66%+0.37 +16.3 16
2002-10-06 Zalaegerszeg W 3-262.8 1604 1554 50.66% 25.74% 23.60%+0.57 +7.9 20
2002-10-06 @ Ferencvaros L 2-362.8 1554 1604 23.60% 25.74% 50.66%-0.57 -7.8 9
2002-10-18 Kispest Honved W 3-144.3 1550 1407 60.59% 23.91% 15.50%+1.08 +9.8 20
2002-10-18 @ Gyor L 1-344.3 1407 1550 15.50% 23.91% 60.59%-1.08 -9.9 6
2002-10-19 Bekescsaba W 6-139.5 1541 1408 59.73% 24.13% 16.14%+1.03 +22.9 21
2002-10-19 @ Debrecen VSC L 1-639.5 1408 1541 16.14% 24.13% 59.73%-1.03 -22.9 3
2002-10-19 Dunaferr W 5-148.4 1626 1533 55.57% 25.01% 19.43%+0.81 +22.2 27
2002-10-19 @ MTK Hungaria L 1-548.4 1533 1626 19.43% 25.01% 55.57%-0.81 -22.1 12
2002-10-19 Ferencvaros L 0-345.8 1487 1612 27.47% 26.16% 46.37%-0.38 -27.2 10
2002-10-19 @ Videoton W 3-045.8 1612 1487 46.37% 26.16% 27.47%+0.38 +27.2 23
2002-10-19 Siofok W 1-052.7 1546 1545 44.51% 26.29% 29.21%+0.31 +10.4 12
2002-10-19 @ Zalaegerszeg L 0-152.7 1545 1546 29.21% 26.29% 44.51%-0.31 -10.4 18
2002-10-19 Sopron W 3-042.7 1564 1498 52.46% 25.51% 22.04%+0.65 +22.7 19
2002-10-19 @ Ujpest L 0-342.7 1498 1564 22.04% 25.51% 52.46%-0.65 -22.7 11
2002-10-23 Bekescsaba W 4-247.2 1556 1385 63.26% 23.17% 13.57%+1.23 +7.8 15
2002-10-23 @ Zalaegerszeg L 2-447.2 1385 1556 13.57% 23.17% 63.26%-1.23 -7.8 3
2002-10-25 Siofok W 4-044.2 1639 1534 56.78% 24.78% 18.44%+0.87 +25.4 26
2002-10-25 @ Ferencvaros L 0-444.2 1534 1639 18.44% 24.78% 56.78%-0.87 -25.4 18
2002-10-26 Bekescsaba W 5-242.8 1560 1377 64.23% 22.86% 12.91%+1.29 +10.1 23
2002-10-26 @ Gyor L 2-542.8 1377 1560 12.91% 22.86% 64.23%-1.29 -10.1 3
2002-10-26 Dunaferr W 2-155.1 1586 1511 53.60% 25.34% 21.06%+0.71 +7.5 22
2002-10-26 @ Ujpest L 1-255.1 1511 1586 21.06% 25.34% 53.60%-0.71 -7.5 12
2002-10-26 Kispest Honved W 2-038.5 1564 1397 62.83% 23.30% 13.88%+1.21 +10.2 18
2002-10-26 @ Zalaegerszeg L 0-238.5 1397 1564 13.88% 23.30% 62.83%-1.21 -10.2 6
2002-10-26 MTK Hungaria D 0-062.7 1459 1648 20.67% 25.26% 54.06%-0.73 +2.6 11
2002-10-26 @ Videoton D 0-062.7 1648 1459 54.06% 25.26% 20.67%+0.73 -2.6 28
2002-10-26 Sopron D 3-373.8 1564 1476 55.08% 25.09% 19.82%+0.78 -1.5 22
2002-10-26 @ Debrecen VSC D 3-373.8 1476 1564 19.82% 25.09% 55.08%-0.78 +1.6 12
2002-11-01 Siofok L 2-456.6 1462 1509 37.88% 26.50% 35.62%+0.04 -18.6 11
2002-11-01 @ Videoton W 4-256.6 1509 1462 35.62% 26.50% 37.88%-0.04 +18.5 21
2002-11-02 Debrecen VSC D 2-270.1 1503 1563 36.08% 26.51% 37.41%-0.03 +0.1 13
2002-11-02 @ Dunaferr D 2-270.1 1563 1503 37.41% 26.51% 36.08%+0.03 -0.1 23
2002-11-02 Gyor D 0-060.2 1477 1570 31.52% 26.41% 42.08%-0.21 +0.8 13
2002-11-02 @ Sopron D 0-060.2 1570 1477 42.08% 26.41% 31.52%+0.21 -0.8 24
2002-11-02 Ujpest W 1-054.7 1646 1594 50.89% 25.71% 23.39%+0.58 +8.7 31
2002-11-02 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-154.7 1594 1646 23.39% 25.71% 50.89%-0.58 -8.7 22
2002-11-02 Zalaegerszeg W 3-156.2 1367 1574 19.00% 24.91% 56.09%-0.83 +28.7 6
2002-11-02 @ Bekescsaba L 1-356.2 1574 1367 56.09% 24.91% 19.00%+0.83 -28.7 18
2002-11-08 Bekescsaba L 0-162.4 1664 1396 71.01% 20.26% 8.73%+1.76 -21.5 26
2002-11-08 @ Ferencvaros W 1-062.4 1396 1664 8.73% 20.26% 71.01%-1.76 +21.5 9
2002-11-09 Dunaferr W 1-049.7 1569 1504 52.49% 25.50% 22.01%+0.66 +8.3 27
2002-11-09 @ Gyor L 0-149.7 1504 1569 22.01% 25.50% 52.49%-0.66 -8.3 13
2002-11-09 Videoton W 2-150.6 1585 1444 60.48% 23.94% 15.58%+1.07 +5.7 25
2002-11-09 @ Ujpest L 1-250.6 1444 1585 15.58% 23.94% 60.48%-1.07 -5.7 11
2002-11-09 Kispest Honved L 0-251.0 1528 1387 60.37% 23.97% 15.66%+1.06 -35.3 21
2002-11-09 @ Siofok W 2-051.0 1387 1528 15.66% 23.97% 60.37%-1.06 +35.3 9
2002-11-09 MTK Hungaria D 0-065.2 1563 1655 31.63% 26.41% 41.96%-0.20 +0.8 24
2002-11-09 @ Debrecen VSC D 0-065.2 1655 1563 41.96% 26.41% 31.63%+0.20 -0.8 32
2002-11-09 Sopron W 3-041.2 1546 1478 52.74% 25.47% 21.79%+0.67 +22.5 21
2002-11-09 @ Zalaegerszeg L 0-341.2 1478 1546 21.79% 25.47% 52.74%-0.67 -22.5 13
2002-11-15 Gyor W 2-049.7 1654 1577 53.72% 25.32% 20.96%+0.72 +15.0 35
2002-11-15 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-249.7 1577 1654 20.96% 25.32% 53.72%-0.72 -15.0 27
2002-11-16 Debrecen VSC D 1-167.7 1591 1564 47.88% 26.03% 26.09%+0.45 -1.5 26
2002-11-16 @ Ujpest D 1-167.7 1564 1591 26.09% 26.03% 47.88%-0.45 +1.5 25
2002-11-16 Dunaferr W 2-154.0 1568 1495 53.34% 25.38% 21.28%+0.70 +7.6 24
2002-11-16 @ Zalaegerszeg L 1-254.0 1495 1568 21.28% 25.38% 53.34%-0.70 -7.6 13
2002-11-16 Ferencvaros L 1-351.5 1455 1643 20.82% 25.29% 53.88%-0.72 -12.9 13
2002-11-16 @ Sopron W 3-151.5 1643 1455 53.88% 25.29% 20.82%+0.72 +12.9 29
2002-11-16 Kispest Honved W 2-040.1 1438 1422 46.36% 26.16% 27.48%+0.38 +18.8 14
2002-11-16 @ Videoton L 0-240.1 1422 1438 27.48% 26.16% 46.36%-0.38 -18.8 9
2002-11-16 Siofok D 1-159.1 1417 1492 33.88% 26.48% 39.65%-0.11 +0.4 10
2002-11-16 @ Bekescsaba D 1-159.1 1492 1417 39.65% 26.48% 33.88%+0.11 -0.4 22
2002-11-22 Ujpest L 1-359.4 1562 1589 40.67% 26.45% 32.87%+0.15 -21.9 27
2002-11-22 @ Gyor W 3-159.4 1589 1562 32.87% 26.45% 40.67%-0.15 +21.9 29
2002-11-23 Bekescsaba W 2-040.2 1404 1417 42.50% 26.39% 31.11%+0.22 +20.7 12
2002-11-23 @ Kispest Honved L 0-240.2 1417 1404 31.11% 26.39% 42.50%-0.22 -20.7 10
2002-11-23 Dunaferr W 3-042.2 1656 1488 62.93% 23.26% 13.80%+1.21 +14.8 32
2002-11-23 @ Ferencvaros L 0-342.2 1488 1656 13.80% 23.26% 62.93%-1.21 -14.8 13
2002-11-23 Videoton D 0-059.8 1565 1457 57.17% 24.70% 18.13%+0.89 -3.1 26
2002-11-23 @ Debrecen VSC D 0-059.8 1457 1565 18.13% 24.70% 57.17%-0.89 +3.1 15
2002-11-23 MTK Hungaria L 1-262.3 1576 1669 31.48% 26.40% 42.11%-0.21 -10.4 24
2002-11-23 @ Zalaegerszeg W 2-162.3 1669 1576 42.11% 26.40% 31.48%+0.21 +10.4 38
2002-11-23 Sopron W 2-150.1 1492 1443 50.57% 25.75% 23.68%+0.57 +8.3 25
2002-11-23 @ Siofok L 1-250.1 1443 1492 23.68% 25.75% 50.57%-0.57 -8.3 13
2002-11-30 Bekescsaba L 1-352.5 1460 1397 52.19% 25.54% 22.27%+0.64 -26.9 15
2002-11-30 @ Videoton W 3-152.5 1397 1460 22.27% 25.54% 52.19%-0.64 +26.9 13
2002-11-30 Gyor W 3-153.6 1562 1540 47.13% 26.10% 26.77%+0.41 +15.9 29
2002-11-30 @ Debrecen VSC L 1-353.6 1540 1562 26.77% 26.10% 47.13%-0.41 -15.9 27
2002-11-30 Kispest Honved W 4-249.8 1434 1424 45.65% 26.21% 28.14%+0.35 +14.8 16
2002-11-30 @ Sopron L 2-449.8 1424 1434 28.14% 26.21% 45.65%-0.35 -14.8 12
2002-11-30 Siofok D 0-057.4 1473 1500 40.64% 26.45% 32.91%+0.15 -0.6 14
2002-11-30 @ Dunaferr D 0-057.4 1500 1473 32.91% 26.45% 40.64%-0.15 +0.6 26
2002-11-30 Ujpest D 3-377.7 1565 1611 38.02% 26.50% 35.48%+0.05 -0.1 25
2002-11-30 @ Zalaegerszeg D 3-377.7 1611 1565 35.48% 26.50% 38.02%-0.05 +0.1 30
2002-12-01 Ferencvaros L 0-162.9 1679 1670 45.49% 26.22% 28.29%+0.35 -14.7 38
2002-12-01 @ MTK Hungaria W 1-062.9 1670 1679 28.29% 26.22% 45.49%-0.35 +14.7 35
2002-12-06 Ferencvaros L 1-252.2 1410 1685 13.93% 23.32% 62.76%-1.20 -5.1 12
2002-12-06 @ Kispest Honved W 2-152.2 1685 1410 62.76% 23.32% 13.93%+1.20 +5.1 38
2003-03-07 Dunaferr W 1-048.0 1404 1472 34.88% 26.50% 38.62%-0.07 +12.9 15
2003-03-07 @ Kispest Honved L 0-148.0 1472 1404 38.62% 26.50% 34.88%+0.07 -12.9 14
2003-03-08 Debrecen VSC W 2-159.8 1565 1578 42.67% 26.38% 30.95%+0.23 +10.3 28
2003-03-08 @ Zalaegerszeg L 1-259.8 1578 1565 30.95% 26.38% 42.67%-0.23 -10.3 29
2003-03-08 Videoton L 0-448.1 1525 1433 55.41% 25.04% 19.56%+0.80 -62.1 27
2003-03-08 @ Gyor W 4-048.1 1433 1525 19.56% 25.04% 55.41%-0.80 +62.1 18
2003-03-08 MTK Hungaria L 0-152.9 1501 1664 23.15% 25.68% 51.18%-0.59 -8.6 26
2003-03-08 @ Siofok W 1-052.9 1664 1501 51.18% 25.68% 23.15%+0.59 +8.6 41
2003-03-08 Sopron L 0-541.9 1424 1449 40.89% 26.45% 32.66%+0.16 -59.4 13
2003-03-08 @ Bekescsaba W 5-041.9 1449 1424 32.66% 26.45% 40.89%-0.16 +59.4 19
2003-03-08 Ujpest W 1-054.7 1690 1611 54.00% 25.27% 20.72%+0.73 +7.9 41
2003-03-08 @ Ferencvaros L 0-154.7 1611 1690 20.72% 25.27% 54.00%-0.73 -7.9 30
2003-03-12 Bekescsaba W 3-033.6 1459 1364 55.77% 24.97% 19.26%+0.82 +20.2 17
2003-03-12 @ Dunaferr L 0-333.6 1364 1459 19.26% 24.97% 55.77%-0.82 -20.2 13
2003-03-12 Ferencvaros W 2-058.3 1567 1698 26.80% 26.10% 47.10%-0.41 +28.5 32
2003-03-12 @ Debrecen VSC L 0-258.3 1698 1567 47.10% 26.10% 26.80%+0.41 -28.5 41
2003-03-12 Kispest Honved W 2-149.9 1673 1417 70.07% 20.67% 9.26%+1.69 +3.4 44
2003-03-12 @ MTK Hungaria L 1-249.9 1417 1673 9.26% 20.67% 70.07%-1.69 -3.4 15
2003-03-12 Siofok D 1-166.4 1603 1492 57.49% 24.63% 17.88%+0.91 -2.8 31
2003-03-12 @ Ujpest D 1-166.4 1492 1603 17.88% 24.63% 57.49%-0.91 +2.9 27
2003-03-12 Sopron W 3-260.1 1495 1508 42.53% 26.39% 31.08%+0.22 +9.8 21
2003-03-12 @ Videoton L 2-360.1 1508 1495 31.08% 26.39% 42.53%-0.22 -9.8 19
2003-03-12 Zalaegerszeg D 1-163.9 1462 1576 28.90% 26.27% 44.83%-0.32 +1.1 28
2003-03-12 @ Gyor D 1-163.9 1576 1462 44.83% 26.27% 28.90%+0.32 -1.1 29
2003-03-15 Debrecen VSC D 1-165.7 1495 1596 30.43% 26.36% 43.21%-0.25 +0.8 28
2003-03-15 @ Siofok D 1-165.7 1596 1495 43.21% 26.36% 30.43%+0.25 -0.9 33
2003-03-15 Dunaferr W 4-146.4 1499 1480 46.83% 26.12% 27.05%+0.40 +22.7 22
2003-03-15 @ Sopron L 1-446.4 1480 1499 27.05% 26.12% 46.83%-0.40 -22.7 17
2003-03-15 Videoton L 0-352.6 1575 1505 52.97% 25.43% 21.60%+0.68 -45.7 29
2003-03-15 @ Zalaegerszeg W 3-052.6 1505 1575 21.60% 25.43% 52.97%-0.68 +45.7 24
2003-03-15 Gyor W 5-249.1 1670 1464 66.20% 22.19% 11.60%+1.42 +9.0 44
2003-03-15 @ Ferencvaros L 2-549.1 1464 1670 11.60% 22.19% 66.20%-1.42 -9.0 28
2003-03-15 MTK Hungaria D 2-269.9 1344 1676 10.75% 21.69% 67.56%-1.51 +3.2 14
2003-03-15 @ Bekescsaba D 2-269.9 1676 1344 67.56% 21.69% 10.75%+1.51 -3.2 45
2003-03-16 Ujpest L 1-445.6 1414 1601 20.89% 25.31% 53.81%-0.72 -18.3 15
2003-03-16 @ Kispest Honved W 4-145.6 1601 1414 53.81% 25.31% 20.89%+0.72 +18.3 34
2003-03-21 Sopron D 0-065.5 1673 1521 61.46% 23.68% 14.85%+1.13 -3.8 46
2003-03-21 @ MTK Hungaria D 0-065.5 1521 1673 14.85% 23.68% 61.46%-1.13 +3.8 23
2003-03-22 Bekescsaba W 2-036.1 1619 1347 71.22% 20.16% 8.62%+1.78 +6.2 37
2003-03-22 @ Ujpest L 0-236.1 1347 1619 8.62% 20.16% 71.22%-1.78 -6.2 14
2003-03-22 Dunaferr W 3-039.7 1550 1457 55.61% 25.00% 19.39%+0.81 +20.3 27
2003-03-22 @ Videoton L 0-339.7 1457 1550 19.39% 25.00% 55.61%-0.81 -20.3 17
2003-03-22 Ferencvaros D 1-169.1 1529 1679 24.63% 25.87% 49.50%-0.52 +1.7 30
2003-03-22 @ Zalaegerszeg D 1-169.1 1679 1529 49.50% 25.87% 24.63%+0.52 -1.7 45
2003-03-22 Kispest Honved W 3-252.7 1595 1396 65.64% 22.39% 11.97%+1.39 +4.2 36
2003-03-22 @ Debrecen VSC L 2-352.7 1396 1595 11.97% 22.39% 65.64%-1.39 -4.2 15
2003-03-22 Siofok D 2-265.9 1454 1496 38.67% 26.49% 34.84%+0.07 -0.2 29
2003-03-22 @ Gyor D 2-265.9 1496 1454 34.84% 26.49% 38.67%-0.07 +0.2 29
2003-04-05 Debrecen VSC L 0-335.6 1341 1599 15.08% 23.76% 61.16%-1.11 -16.1 14
2003-04-05 @ Bekescsaba W 3-035.6 1599 1341 61.16% 23.76% 15.08%+1.11 +16.1 39
2003-04-05 Videoton W 1-053.0 1677 1571 56.95% 24.74% 18.31%+0.88 +7.0 48
2003-04-05 @ Ferencvaros L 0-153.0 1571 1677 18.31% 24.74% 56.95%-0.88 -7.0 27
2003-04-05 Gyor L 0-242.2 1392 1454 35.60% 26.50% 37.90%-0.04 -22.9 15
2003-04-05 @ Kispest Honved W 2-042.2 1454 1392 37.90% 26.50% 35.60%+0.04 +22.9 32
2003-04-05 MTK Hungaria D 3-376.4 1437 1670 16.93% 24.37% 58.71%-0.97 +1.9 18
2003-04-05 @ Dunaferr D 3-376.4 1670 1437 58.71% 24.37% 16.93%+0.97 -1.9 47
2003-04-05 Ujpest L 0-155.0 1525 1625 30.57% 26.36% 43.07%-0.25 -10.8 23
2003-04-05 @ Sopron W 1-055.0 1625 1525 43.07% 26.36% 30.57%+0.25 +10.8 40
2003-04-05 Zalaegerszeg W 1-051.9 1496 1531 39.61% 26.48% 33.91%+0.11 +11.7 32
2003-04-05 @ Siofok L 0-151.9 1531 1496 33.91% 26.48% 39.61%-0.11 -11.7 30

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-04-11 Gyor D 0-062.5 1615 1477 60.16% 24.02% 15.82%+1.05 -3.6 1
2003-04-11 @ Debrecen VSC D 0-062.5 1477 1615 15.82% 24.02% 60.16%-1.05 +3.6 1
2003-04-11 MTK Hungaria W 2-162.4 1684 1668 46.49% 26.15% 27.36%+0.39 +9.4 3
2003-04-11 @ Ferencvaros L 1-262.4 1668 1684 27.36% 26.15% 46.49%-0.39 -9.3 0
2003-04-12 Dunaferr D 1-161.0 1514 1438 53.66% 25.33% 21.01%+0.71 -2.3 1
2003-04-12 @ Sopron D 1-161.0 1438 1514 21.01% 25.33% 53.66%-0.71 +2.3 1
2003-04-12 Kispest Honved W 3-144.4 1325 1369 38.33% 26.50% 35.17%+0.06 +19.6 3
2003-04-12 @ Bekescsaba L 1-344.4 1369 1325 35.17% 26.50% 38.33%-0.06 -19.6 0
2003-04-12 Siofok D 0-064.0 1636 1508 59.19% 24.26% 16.55%+1.00 -3.5 1
2003-04-12 @ Ujpest D 0-064.0 1508 1636 16.55% 24.26% 59.19%-1.00 +3.5 1
2003-04-12 Zalaegerszeg W 2-046.8 1564 1519 50.05% 25.81% 24.14%+0.54 +16.9 3
2003-04-12 @ Videoton L 0-246.8 1519 1564 24.14% 25.81% 50.05%-0.54 -16.9 0
2003-04-16 Kispest Honved L 1-351.7 1441 1349 55.42% 25.04% 19.55%+0.80 -28.4 1
2003-04-16 @ Dunaferr W 3-151.7 1349 1441 19.55% 25.04% 55.42%-0.80 +28.4 3
2003-04-18 Ujpest D 0-062.6 1481 1632 24.43% 25.85% 49.72%-0.53 +2.0 2
2003-04-18 @ Gyor D 0-062.6 1632 1481 49.72% 25.85% 24.43%+0.53 -2.0 2
2003-04-19 Bekescsaba L 0-441.8 1412 1345 52.75% 25.47% 21.79%+0.67 -59.5 1
2003-04-19 @ Dunaferr W 4-041.8 1345 1412 21.79% 25.47% 52.75%-0.67 +59.5 6
2003-04-19 Debrecen VSC W 1-055.4 1658 1612 50.25% 25.79% 23.96%+0.55 +8.9 3
2003-04-19 @ MTK Hungaria L 0-155.4 1612 1658 23.96% 25.79% 50.25%-0.55 -8.9 1
2003-04-19 Videoton W 1-055.4 1377 1581 19.37% 25.00% 55.63%-0.81 +17.4 6
2003-04-19 @ Kispest Honved L 0-155.4 1581 1377 55.63% 25.00% 19.37%+0.81 -17.4 3
2003-04-19 Ferencvaros W 2-167.7 1511 1693 21.30% 25.38% 53.32%-0.70 +15.8 4
2003-04-19 @ Siofok L 1-267.7 1693 1511 53.32% 25.38% 21.30%+0.70 -15.8 3
2003-04-19 Sopron W 4-148.8 1502 1512 42.99% 26.37% 30.64%+0.24 +25.0 3
2003-04-19 @ Zalaegerszeg L 1-448.8 1512 1502 30.64% 26.37% 42.99%-0.24 -25.0 1
2003-04-23 Bekescsaba W 3-036.3 1563 1404 62.12% 23.50% 14.38%+1.17 +15.4 6
2003-04-23 @ Videoton L 0-336.3 1404 1563 14.38% 23.50% 62.12%-1.17 -15.4 6
2003-04-23 Kispest Honved W 3-251.9 1487 1395 55.46% 25.03% 19.51%+0.80 +6.7 4
2003-04-23 @ Sopron L 2-351.9 1395 1487 19.51% 25.03% 55.46%-0.80 -6.7 6
2003-04-23 MTK Hungaria L 2-361.8 1483 1667 21.10% 25.34% 53.56%-0.71 -7.1 2
2003-04-23 @ Gyor W 3-261.8 1667 1483 53.56% 25.34% 21.10%+0.71 +7.1 6
2003-04-23 Siofok D 1-167.2 1603 1527 53.67% 25.33% 21.01%+0.71 -2.3 2
2003-04-23 @ Debrecen VSC D 1-167.2 1527 1603 21.01% 25.33% 53.67%-0.71 +2.3 5
2003-04-23 Ujpest W 2-160.8 1678 1631 50.30% 25.78% 23.91%+0.55 +8.4 6
2003-04-23 @ Ferencvaros L 1-260.8 1631 1678 23.91% 25.78% 50.30%-0.55 -8.4 2
2003-04-23 Zalaegerszeg L 2-352.8 1353 1527 22.11% 25.52% 52.37%-0.65 -7.4 1
2003-04-23 @ Dunaferr W 3-252.8 1527 1353 52.37% 25.52% 22.11%+0.65 +7.4 6
2003-04-26 Debrecen VSC L 0-355.0 1622 1601 47.16% 26.10% 26.75%+0.42 -41.4 2
2003-04-26 @ Ujpest W 3-055.0 1601 1622 26.75% 26.10% 47.16%-0.42 +41.4 5
2003-04-26 Dunaferr W 4-032.2 1579 1346 68.35% 21.38% 10.27%+1.57 +14.2 9
2003-04-26 @ Videoton L 0-432.2 1346 1579 10.27% 21.38% 68.35%-1.57 -14.2 1
2003-04-26 Gyor W 1-048.2 1686 1476 66.55% 22.07% 11.38%+1.45 +4.4 9
2003-04-26 @ Ferencvaros L 0-148.2 1476 1686 11.38% 22.07% 66.55%-1.45 -4.4 2
2003-04-26 MTK Hungaria W 4-267.2 1529 1674 25.15% 25.93% 48.91%-0.49 +22.8 8
2003-04-26 @ Siofok L 2-467.2 1674 1529 48.91% 25.93% 25.15%+0.49 -22.8 6
2003-04-26 Sopron D 2-263.6 1389 1494 29.93% 26.33% 43.74%-0.27 +0.7 7
2003-04-26 @ Bekescsaba D 2-263.6 1494 1389 43.74% 26.33% 29.93%+0.27 -0.7 5
2003-04-26 Zalaegerszeg L 1-250.1 1388 1534 25.02% 25.92% 49.06%-0.50 -8.7 6
2003-04-26 @ Kispest Honved W 2-150.1 1534 1388 49.06% 25.92% 25.02%+0.50 +8.7 9
2003-05-03 Bekescsaba W 3-035.2 1543 1389 61.62% 23.64% 14.74%+1.14 +15.7 12
2003-05-03 @ Zalaegerszeg L 0-335.2 1389 1543 14.74% 23.64% 61.62%-1.14 -15.8 7
2003-05-03 Videoton L 0-249.0 1493 1593 30.59% 26.36% 43.05%-0.25 -20.4 5
2003-05-03 @ Sopron W 2-049.0 1593 1493 43.05% 26.36% 30.59%+0.25 +20.4 12
2003-05-03 Ferencvaros D 1-170.9 1642 1690 37.64% 26.50% 35.85%+0.03 -0.1 6
2003-05-03 @ Debrecen VSC D 1-170.9 1690 1642 35.85% 26.50% 37.64%-0.03 +0.1 10
2003-05-03 Siofok D 1-163.3 1471 1552 33.10% 26.46% 40.44%-0.14 +0.5 3
2003-05-03 @ Gyor D 1-163.3 1552 1471 40.44% 26.46% 33.10%+0.14 -0.5 9
2003-05-04 Ujpest L 1-268.2 1652 1581 53.09% 25.42% 21.50%+0.68 -15.8 6
2003-05-04 @ MTK Hungaria W 2-168.2 1581 1652 21.50% 25.42% 53.09%-0.68 +15.8 5
2003-05-09 Bekescsaba D 1-155.2 1379 1374 45.11% 26.25% 28.65%+0.33 -1.1 7
2003-05-09 @ Kispest Honved D 1-155.2 1374 1379 28.65% 26.25% 45.11%-0.33 +1.1 8
2003-05-10 Debrecen VSC D 0-062.7 1472 1642 22.50% 25.58% 51.92%-0.63 +2.3 4
2003-05-10 @ Gyor D 0-062.7 1642 1472 51.92% 25.58% 22.50%+0.63 -2.3 7
2003-05-10 Videoton W 3-267.4 1559 1613 36.80% 26.51% 36.69%+0.00 +11.1 15
2003-05-10 @ Zalaegerszeg L 2-367.4 1613 1559 36.69% 26.51% 36.80%+0.00 -11.1 12
2003-05-10 Ferencvaros D 0-066.8 1636 1690 36.75% 26.51% 36.74%+0.00 +0.0 7
2003-05-10 @ MTK Hungaria D 0-066.8 1690 1636 36.74% 26.51% 36.75%+0.00 +0.0 11
2003-05-10 Sopron L 1-246.9 1331 1473 25.57% 25.98% 48.45%-0.47 -8.8 1
2003-05-10 @ Dunaferr W 2-146.9 1473 1331 48.45% 25.98% 25.57%+0.47 +8.9 8
2003-05-10 Ujpest L 2-367.2 1551 1597 38.13% 26.50% 35.37%+0.05 -11.4 9
2003-05-10 @ Siofok W 3-267.2 1597 1551 35.37% 26.50% 38.13%-0.05 +11.4 8
2003-05-14 Dunaferr W 2-035.4 1375 1322 50.94% 25.71% 23.35%+0.58 +16.4 11
2003-05-14 @ Bekescsaba L 0-235.4 1322 1375 23.35% 25.71% 50.94%-0.58 -16.4 1
2003-05-14 Gyor W 3-149.2 1608 1474 59.75% 24.12% 16.12%+1.03 +10.2 11
2003-05-14 @ Ujpest L 1-349.2 1474 1608 16.12% 24.12% 59.75%-1.03 -10.2 4
2003-05-14 Kispest Honved L 1-263.7 1602 1378 67.62% 21.67% 10.71%+1.52 -19.5 12
2003-05-14 @ Videoton W 2-163.7 1378 1602 10.71% 21.67% 67.62%-1.52 +19.5 10
2003-05-14 MTK Hungaria L 1-266.7 1639 1636 44.83% 26.27% 28.90%+0.32 -13.7 7
2003-05-14 @ Debrecen VSC W 2-166.7 1636 1639 28.90% 26.27% 44.83%-0.32 +13.7 10
2003-05-14 Siofok L 0-261.3 1690 1540 61.32% 23.72% 14.96%+1.12 -35.8 11
2003-05-14 @ Ferencvaros W 2-061.3 1540 1690 14.96% 23.72% 61.32%-1.12 +35.8 12
2003-05-14 Zalaegerszeg D 2-269.6 1481 1570 32.07% 26.43% 41.50%-0.18 +0.5 9
2003-05-14 @ Sopron D 2-269.6 1570 1481 41.50% 26.43% 32.07%+0.18 -0.5 16
2003-05-17 Debrecen VSC L 3-566.1 1576 1626 37.44% 26.51% 36.06%+0.03 -17.4 12
2003-05-17 @ Siofok W 5-366.1 1626 1576 36.06% 26.51% 37.44%-0.03 +17.4 10
2003-05-17 Dunaferr W 4-135.7 1569 1306 70.63% 20.43% 8.94%+1.73 +7.9 19
2003-05-17 @ Zalaegerszeg L 1-435.7 1306 1569 8.94% 20.43% 70.63%-1.73 -7.9 1
2003-05-17 Videoton W 1-055.7 1391 1583 20.44% 25.22% 54.34%-0.75 +17.1 14
2003-05-17 @ Bekescsaba L 0-155.7 1583 1391 54.34% 25.22% 20.44%+0.75 -17.1 12
2003-05-17 Ferencvaros D 0-066.2 1618 1655 39.35% 26.48% 34.17%+0.10 -0.4 12
2003-05-17 @ Ujpest D 0-066.2 1655 1618 34.17% 26.48% 39.35%-0.10 +0.4 12
2003-05-17 Gyor W 3-148.8 1649 1464 64.49% 22.78% 12.73%+1.31 +8.1 13
2003-05-17 @ MTK Hungaria L 1-348.8 1464 1649 12.73% 22.78% 64.49%-1.31 -8.1 4
2003-05-17 Sopron D 0-054.2 1398 1482 32.65% 26.45% 40.90%-0.16 +0.6 11
2003-05-17 @ Kispest Honved D 0-054.2 1482 1398 40.90% 26.45% 32.65%+0.16 -0.6 10
2003-05-23 Bekescsaba L 1-353.8 1481 1408 53.34% 25.38% 21.28%+0.70 -27.4 10
2003-05-23 @ Sopron W 3-153.8 1408 1481 21.28% 25.38% 53.34%-0.70 +27.4 17
2003-05-23 Kispest Honved W 3-144.0 1577 1398 63.90% 22.97% 13.13%+1.27 +8.4 22
2003-05-23 @ Zalaegerszeg L 1-344.0 1398 1577 13.13% 22.97% 63.90%-1.27 -8.4 11
2003-05-24 Videoton D 2-263.9 1298 1566 14.45% 23.53% 62.02%-1.16 +2.6 2
2003-05-24 @ Dunaferr D 2-263.9 1566 1298 62.02% 23.53% 14.45%+1.16 -2.6 13
2003-05-24 Ferencvaros L 0-246.1 1456 1655 19.71% 25.07% 55.22%-0.79 -14.2 4
2003-05-24 @ Gyor W 2-046.1 1655 1456 55.22% 25.07% 19.71%+0.79 +14.2 15
2003-05-24 Siofok W 3-153.9 1658 1559 56.20% 24.89% 18.91%+0.84 +11.9 16
2003-05-24 @ MTK Hungaria L 1-353.9 1559 1658 18.91% 24.89% 56.20%-0.84 -11.8 12
2003-05-24 Ujpest W 2-052.0 1643 1618 47.63% 26.06% 26.31%+0.44 +18.1 13
2003-05-24 @ Debrecen VSC L 0-252.0 1618 1643 26.31% 26.06% 47.63%-0.44 -18.1 12
2003-05-30 Debrecen VSC D 0-067.0 1669 1661 45.39% 26.23% 28.38%+0.34 -1.3 16
2003-05-30 @ Ferencvaros D 0-067.0 1661 1669 28.38% 26.23% 45.39%-0.34 +1.3 14
2003-05-30 Gyor W 2-150.2 1547 1441 56.85% 24.76% 18.38%+0.87 +6.7 15
2003-05-30 @ Siofok L 1-250.2 1441 1547 18.38% 24.76% 56.85%-0.87 -6.7 4
2003-05-30 MTK Hungaria L 0-158.8 1600 1669 34.62% 26.49% 38.89%-0.08 -11.9 12
2003-05-30 @ Ujpest W 1-058.8 1669 1600 38.89% 26.49% 34.62%+0.08 +11.9 19
2003-05-31 Dunaferr W 4-136.5 1390 1301 55.15% 25.08% 19.77%+0.79 +17.4 14
2003-05-31 @ Kispest Honved L 1-436.5 1301 1390 19.77% 25.08% 55.15%-0.79 -17.4 2
2003-05-31 Sopron L 1-262.9 1563 1454 57.24% 24.69% 18.07%+0.89 -16.9 13
2003-05-31 @ Videoton W 2-162.9 1454 1563 18.07% 24.69% 57.24%-0.89 +16.9 13
2003-05-31 Zalaegerszeg D 1-163.4 1436 1586 24.60% 25.87% 49.53%-0.52 +1.7 18
2003-05-31 @ Bekescsaba D 1-163.4 1586 1436 49.53% 25.87% 24.60%+0.52 -1.7 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-11-08 8.73% Bekescsaba 1396 1 @ Ferencvaros 1664 0
2 2003-05-14 10.71% Kispest Honved 1378 2 @ Videoton 1602 1
3 2003-05-14 14.96% Siofok 1540 2 @ Ferencvaros 1690 0
4 2002-11-09 15.66% Kispest Honved 1387 2 @ Siofok 1528 0
5 2002-09-14 17.42% Kispest Honved 1418 3 @ Dunaferr 1535 1
6 2003-05-31 18.07% Sopron 1454 2 @ Videoton 1563 1
7 2002-11-02 19.00% @ Bekescsaba 1367 3 Zalaegerszeg 1574 1
8 2003-04-19 19.37% @ Kispest Honved 1377 1 Videoton 1581 0
9 2003-04-16 19.55% Kispest Honved 1349 3 @ Dunaferr 1441 1
10 2003-03-08 19.56% Videoton 1433 4 @ Gyor 1525 0
11 2003-05-17 20.44% @ Bekescsaba 1391 1 Videoton 1583 0
12 2002-08-31 20.96% Debrecen VSC 1494 1 @ Gyor 1570 0
13 2003-05-23 21.28% Bekescsaba 1408 3 @ Sopron 1481 1
14 2003-04-19 21.30% @ Siofok 1511 2 Ferencvaros 1693 1
15 2003-05-04 21.50% Ujpest 1581 2 @ MTK Hungaria 1652 1
16 2003-03-15 21.60% Videoton 1505 3 @ Zalaegerszeg 1575 0
17 2003-04-19 21.79% Bekescsaba 1345 4 @ Dunaferr 1412 0
18 2002-11-30 22.27% Bekescsaba 1397 3 @ Videoton 1460 1
19 2002-09-01 22.49% MTK Hungaria 1591 1 @ Ferencvaros 1651 0
20 2002-10-05 23.91% @ Sopron 1484 3 MTK Hungaria 1641 2
21 2003-04-26 25.15% @ Siofok 1529 4 MTK Hungaria 1674 2
22 2002-07-27 25.62% Gyor 1504 4 @ Bekescsaba 1536 2
23 2002-08-10 26.14% Gyor 1544 2 @ Dunaferr 1571 1
24 2002-08-09 26.69% Ujpest 1488 2 @ Videoton 1511 1
25 2003-04-26 26.75% Debrecen VSC 1601 3 @ Ujpest 1622 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-03-08 62.13 Videoton 4 1433 19.56% @ Gyor 0 1525 55.41% 25.04%
2 2003-04-19 59.49 Bekescsaba 4 1345 21.79% @ Dunaferr 0 1412 52.75% 25.47%
3 2003-03-08 59.38 Sopron 5 1449 32.66% @ Bekescsaba 0 1424 40.89% 26.45%
4 2003-03-15 45.70 Videoton 3 1505 21.60% @ Zalaegerszeg 0 1575 52.97% 25.43%
5 2003-04-26 41.37 Debrecen VSC 3 1601 26.75% @ Ujpest 0 1622 47.16% 26.10%
6 2002-09-14 41.25 @ Ujpest 3 1505 26.90% Ferencvaros 0 1635 46.99% 26.11%
7 2003-05-14 35.84 Siofok 2 1540 14.96% @ Ferencvaros 0 1690 61.32% 23.72%
8 2002-08-24 35.65 @ Bekescsaba 4 1468 46.29% Kispest Honved 0 1454 27.54% 26.17%
9 2002-11-09 35.34 Kispest Honved 2 1387 15.66% @ Siofok 0 1528 60.37% 23.97%
10 2002-09-14 30.75 Gyor 4 1553 33.24% @ Videoton 1 1523 40.30% 26.46%
11 2002-08-18 30.11 Ujpest 5 1503 26.92% @ Debrecen VSC 2 1523 46.97% 26.11%
12 2002-09-14 29.57 Kispest Honved 3 1418 17.42% @ Dunaferr 1 1535 58.07% 24.51%
13 2002-11-02 28.66 @ Bekescsaba 3 1367 19.00% Zalaegerszeg 1 1574 56.09% 24.91%
14 2003-03-12 28.46 @ Debrecen VSC 2 1567 26.80% Ferencvaros 0 1698 47.10% 26.10%
15 2003-04-16 28.36 Kispest Honved 3 1349 19.55% @ Dunaferr 1 1441 55.42% 25.04%
16 2002-08-23 28.18 @ MTK Hungaria 3 1563 45.06% Zalaegerszeg 0 1557 28.69% 26.25%
17 2002-08-31 27.62 Videoton 2 1496 28.33% @ Bekescsaba 0 1504 45.44% 26.23%
18 2003-05-23 27.42 Bekescsaba 3 1408 21.28% @ Sopron 1 1481 53.34% 25.38%
19 2002-09-02 27.32 Zalaegerszeg 2 1529 28.91% @ Ujpest 0 1533 44.83% 26.27%
20 2002-10-19 27.22 Ferencvaros 3 1612 46.37% @ Videoton 0 1487 27.47% 26.16%
21 2002-11-30 26.90 Bekescsaba 3 1397 22.27% @ Videoton 1 1460 52.19% 25.54%
22 2002-08-03 25.45 @ Ferencvaros 4 1596 56.70% Kispest Honved 0 1493 18.51% 24.79%
23 2002-10-25 25.38 @ Ferencvaros 4 1639 56.78% Siofok 0 1534 18.44% 24.78%
24 2003-04-19 25.02 @ Zalaegerszeg 4 1502 42.99% Sopron 1 1512 30.64% 26.37%
25 2002-08-17 24.90 @ Siofok 4 1485 43.18% Bekescsaba 1 1493 30.46% 26.36%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-11-30 77.7 @ Zalaegerszeg 3 1565 38.02% Ujpest 3 1611 35.48% 26.50%
2 2003-04-05 76.4 @ Dunaferr 3 1437 16.93% MTK Hungaria 3 1670 58.71% 24.37%
3 2002-08-18 76.0 @ Dunaferr 3 1557 44.39% Zalaegerszeg 3 1556 29.32% 26.29%
4 2002-08-24 74.3 @ Dunaferr 2 1556 31.11% Ferencvaros 2 1652 42.50% 26.39%
5 2002-07-27 73.8 @ Kispest Honved 3 1493 35.42% Zalaegerszeg 3 1557 38.07% 26.50%
6 2002-10-26 73.8 @ Debrecen VSC 3 1564 55.08% Sopron 3 1476 19.82% 25.09%
7 2002-08-24 71.4 @ Ujpest 2 1533 39.28% Gyor 2 1570 34.23% 26.49%
8 2003-05-03 70.9 @ Debrecen VSC 1 1642 37.64% Ferencvaros 1 1690 35.85% 26.50%
9 2002-11-02 70.1 @ Dunaferr 2 1503 36.08% Debrecen VSC 2 1563 37.41% 26.51%
10 2002-09-25 69.9 @ Sopron 2 1493 34.02% Zalaegerszeg 2 1567 39.49% 26.48%
11 2002-10-05 69.9 @ Sopron 3 1484 23.91% MTK Hungaria 2 1641 50.30% 25.78%
12 2003-03-15 69.9 @ Bekescsaba 2 1344 10.75% MTK Hungaria 2 1676 67.56% 21.69%
13 2003-05-14 69.6 @ Sopron 2 1481 32.07% Zalaegerszeg 2 1570 41.50% 26.43%
14 2003-03-22 69.1 @ Zalaegerszeg 1 1529 24.63% Ferencvaros 1 1679 49.50% 25.87%
15 2003-05-04 68.2 Ujpest 2 1581 21.50% @ MTK Hungaria 1 1652 53.09% 25.42%
16 2002-11-16 67.7 @ Ujpest 1 1591 47.88% Debrecen VSC 1 1564 26.09% 26.03%
17 2003-04-19 67.7 @ Siofok 2 1511 21.30% Ferencvaros 1 1693 53.32% 25.38%
18 2002-08-24 67.4 @ Videoton 2 1497 44.85% Debrecen VSC 2 1493 28.89% 26.27%
19 2003-05-10 67.4 @ Zalaegerszeg 3 1559 36.80% Videoton 2 1613 36.69% 26.51%
20 2003-04-23 67.2 @ Debrecen VSC 1 1603 53.67% Siofok 1 1527 21.01% 25.33%
21 2003-04-26 67.2 @ Siofok 4 1529 25.15% MTK Hungaria 2 1674 48.91% 25.93%
22 2003-05-10 67.2 Ujpest 3 1597 35.37% @ Siofok 2 1551 38.13% 26.50%
23 2003-05-30 67.0 @ Ferencvaros 0 1669 45.39% Debrecen VSC 0 1661 28.38% 26.23%
24 2003-05-10 66.8 @ MTK Hungaria 0 1636 36.75% Ferencvaros 0 1690 36.74% 26.51%
25 2003-05-14 66.7 MTK Hungaria 2 1636 28.90% @ Debrecen VSC 1 1639 44.83% 26.27%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-04-26 32.2 @ Videoton 4 1579 68.35% Dunaferr 0 1346 10.27% 21.38%
2 2003-03-12 33.6 @ Dunaferr 3 1459 55.77% Bekescsaba 0 1364 19.26% 24.97%
3 2003-05-03 35.2 @ Zalaegerszeg 3 1543 61.62% Bekescsaba 0 1389 14.74% 23.64%
4 2003-05-14 35.4 @ Bekescsaba 2 1375 50.94% Dunaferr 0 1322 23.35% 25.71%
5 2003-04-05 35.6 Debrecen VSC 3 1599 61.16% @ Bekescsaba 0 1341 15.08% 23.76%
6 2003-05-17 35.7 @ Zalaegerszeg 4 1569 70.63% Dunaferr 1 1306 8.94% 20.43%
7 2003-03-22 36.1 @ Ujpest 2 1619 71.22% Bekescsaba 0 1347 8.62% 20.16%
8 2003-04-23 36.3 @ Videoton 3 1563 62.12% Bekescsaba 0 1404 14.38% 23.50%
9 2003-05-31 36.5 @ Kispest Honved 4 1390 55.15% Dunaferr 1 1301 19.77% 25.08%
10 2002-10-26 38.5 @ Zalaegerszeg 2 1564 62.83% Kispest Honved 0 1397 13.88% 23.30%
11 2002-08-24 38.8 @ Bekescsaba 4 1468 46.29% Kispest Honved 0 1454 27.54% 26.17%
12 2002-09-28 39.1 @ MTK Hungaria 3 1627 64.84% Bekescsaba 0 1437 12.50% 22.66%
13 2002-10-19 39.5 @ Debrecen VSC 6 1541 59.73% Bekescsaba 1 1408 16.14% 24.13%
14 2003-03-22 39.7 @ Videoton 3 1550 55.61% Dunaferr 0 1457 19.39% 25.00%
15 2002-11-16 40.1 @ Videoton 2 1438 46.36% Kispest Honved 0 1422 27.48% 26.16%
16 2002-11-23 40.2 @ Kispest Honved 2 1404 42.50% Bekescsaba 0 1417 31.11% 26.39%
17 2002-11-09 41.2 @ Zalaegerszeg 3 1546 52.74% Sopron 0 1478 21.79% 25.47%
18 2002-08-03 41.7 @ Ferencvaros 4 1596 56.70% Kispest Honved 0 1493 18.51% 24.79%
19 2003-04-19 41.8 Bekescsaba 4 1345 21.79% @ Dunaferr 0 1412 52.75% 25.47%
20 2003-03-08 41.9 Sopron 5 1449 32.66% @ Bekescsaba 0 1424 40.89% 26.45%
21 2002-11-23 42.2 @ Ferencvaros 3 1656 62.93% Dunaferr 0 1488 13.80% 23.26%
22 2003-04-05 42.2 Gyor 2 1454 37.90% @ Kispest Honved 0 1392 35.60% 26.50%
23 2002-10-19 42.7 @ Ujpest 3 1564 52.46% Sopron 0 1498 22.04% 25.51%
24 2002-10-26 42.8 @ Gyor 5 1560 64.23% Bekescsaba 2 1377 12.91% 22.86%
25 2003-05-23 44.0 @ Zalaegerszeg 3 1577 63.90% Kispest Honved 1 1398 13.13% 22.97%