2011 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

IA Akranes

51 pts

Selfoss · 47 pts

Relegated

HK Kopavogur

16 pts

Grotta · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Selfoss

11.28 points above expected

47 points · 35.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leiknir Reykjavik

8.55 points below expected

20 points · 28.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Promoted 22 16 3 3 51 53 17 +36 40.59 +10.41
2 Selfoss Promoted 22 15 2 5 47 44 22 +22 35.72 +11.28
3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 10 6 6 36 33 23 +10 32.46 +3.54
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 22 10 4 8 34 35 26 +9 31.47 +2.53
5 Fjolnir 22 8 8 6 32 34 38 -4 31.28 +0.72
6 IB Bolungarvik 22 9 4 9 31 27 37 -10 28.58 +2.42
7 Throttur Reykjavik 22 9 3 10 30 34 45 -11 27.16 +2.84
8 KA Akureyri 22 9 2 11 29 32 40 -8 24.79 +4.21
9 IR Reykjavik 22 6 4 12 22 27 42 -15 29.55 -7.55
10 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 5 5 12 20 31 32 -1 28.55 -8.55
11 Grotta Relegated 22 4 8 10 20 16 29 -13 27.56 -7.56
12 HK Kopavogur Relegated 22 3 7 12 16 23 38 -15 24.47 -8.47

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1217 51 40.59 +10.41 97.3% 13 31 37 41 45 50 61
Selfoss 1186 47 35.72 +11.28 97.6% 9 26 32 36 40 46 57
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1135 36 32.46 +3.54 75.8% 10 23 29 32 36 42 54
Vikingur Olafsvik 1119 34 31.47 +2.53 69.8% 10 22 27 31 35 41 53
Leiknir Reykjavik 1078 20 28.55 -8.55 8.7% 6 19 24 28 33 38 51
Fjolnir 1041 32 31.28 +0.72 58.2% 10 22 27 31 35 41 53
KA Akureyri 1031 29 24.79 +4.21 79.5% 5 16 21 25 29 35 49
IB Bolungarvik 997 31 28.58 +2.42 68.7% 6 19 25 29 33 38 50
Throttur Reykjavik 994 30 27.16 +2.84 71.3% 4 17 23 27 31 37 50
IR Reykjavik 993 22 29.55 -7.55 11.4% 10 20 26 29 33 39 52
HK Kopavogur 992 16 24.47 -8.47 8.0% 6 15 20 24 28 34 47
Grotta 972 20 27.56 -7.56 12.1% 7 18 23 27 32 38 49

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FJO GRO HK HH IA IB IR KA LR SEL TR VO
Fjolnir
1-1-0
3.00
0-2-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.54
0-1-1
1.95
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.81
2-0-0
3.18
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
2.77
Grotta
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.34
0-0-2
1.49
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.52
0-0-2
3.11
1-1-0
2.52
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.52
HK Kopavogur
0-2-0
2.11
1-1-0
2.54
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.08
1-1-0
2.14
0-0-2
2.66
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-2
2.17
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
0-2-0
2.93
0-1-1
3.14
1-1-0
3.64
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
3.02
2-0-0
2.79
1-0-1
3.24
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
3.48
2-0-0
2.75
IA Akranes
1-1-0
3.54
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.40
1-0-1
3.59
1-0-1
3.54
1-1-0
3.88
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
4.15
2-0-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.68
IB Bolungarvik
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
3.02
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
2.60
0-0-2
1.92
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.31
IR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.96
0-1-1
3.35
0-0-2
2.69
0-1-1
1.64
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
3.44
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.27
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.31
2-0-0
2.36
2-0-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.37
1-0-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.05
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.15
Leiknir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
3.00
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
1.40
0-0-2
2.88
0-0-2
2.75
1-1-0
3.00
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
2.75
Selfoss
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.18
0-0-2
2.37
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.66
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.09
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
2.04
0-0-2
1.96
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.20
0-0-2
2.34
Vikingur Olafsvik
0-1-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
2.72
0-1-1
1.82
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.39
2-0-0
3.14

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.81 +10.1
Allowed 0.44 -7.9
Differential 0.79 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%7.58%3.41%5.30%0.76%1.52%26.14%
17.58%10.61%9.09%3.41%2.27%0.38%33.33%
23.41%9.09%2.27%3.41%0.38%0.38%18.94%
35.30%3.41%3.41%0.76%1.52%14.39%
40.76%2.27%0.38%1.52%4.92%
5+1.52%0.38%0.38%2.27%
Total26.14%33.33%18.94%14.39%4.92%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.99
CV 0.91 0.91
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total31.82%22.73%18.18%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.73 -0.18
SD 1.30 1.91 2.24
CV 0.84 1.10
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%54.55%
14.55%18.18%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.32 -0.59
SD 1.08 1.09 1.56
CV 1.48 0.82
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%13.64%31.82%
14.55%18.18%18.18%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total22.73%18.18%31.82%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.73 -0.68
SD 1.00 1.28 1.64
CV 0.96 0.74
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
213.64%13.64%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total40.91%27.27%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.05 +0.45
SD 1.06 1.09 1.22
CV 0.71 1.04
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
29.09%18.18%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+18.18%18.18%
Total45.45%40.91%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 0.77 +1.64
SD 1.84 0.97 2.44
CV 0.76 1.26
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%31.82%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
222.73%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total13.64%50.00%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.68 -0.45
SD 1.07 1.49 1.90
CV 0.87 0.89
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
14.55%13.64%4.55%18.18%4.55%45.45%
29.09%9.09%18.18%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
4
5+
Total9.09%36.36%13.64%36.36%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.91 -0.68
SD 0.97 1.15 1.49
CV 0.79 0.60
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%31.82%
29.09%9.09%
313.64%13.64%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+
Total22.73%22.73%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.82 -0.36
SD 1.44 1.47 2.30
CV 0.99 0.81
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
113.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%36.36%18.18%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.45 -0.05
SD 1.44 1.18 1.86
CV 1.02 0.81
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
118.18%4.55%13.64%36.36%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
313.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total40.91%27.27%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.00 +1.00
SD 1.27 1.02 1.48
CV 0.64 1.02
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
118.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.05 -0.50
SD 1.53 1.68 2.46
CV 0.99 0.82
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total22.73%50.00%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.18 +0.41
SD 1.33 1.01 1.65
CV 0.84 0.85
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Selfoss 47 35.72 +11.28
2 IA Akranes 51 40.59 +10.41
3 KA Akureyri 29 24.79 +4.21
4 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 36 32.46 +3.54
5 Throttur Reykjavik 30 27.16 +2.84

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Leiknir Reykjavik 20 28.55 -8.55
2 HK Kopavogur 16 24.47 -8.47
3 Grotta 20 27.56 -7.56
4 IR Reykjavik 22 29.55 -7.55
5 Fjolnir 32 31.28 +0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 11 Jun 7 – Aug 5 1 in 1,211
2 Selfoss 6 Jun 6 – Jul 7 1 in 100
3 KA Akureyri 3 Jul 26 – Aug 11 1 in 34
4 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 Aug 19 – Sep 1 1 in 27
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 Jul 16 – Jul 27 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 Jun 11 – Jul 12 1 in 212
2 HK Kopavogur 5 May 28 – Jun 15 1 in 105
3 KA Akureyri 4 Jun 2 – Jun 15 1 in 35
4 IR Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 11 1 in 16
5 Grotta 3 Jul 15 – Jul 26 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 15 May 13 – Aug 5 1 in 95
2 IB Bolungarvik 7 Jul 12 – Aug 16 1 in 53
3 Fjolnir 7 Jul 22 – Aug 27 1 in 24
4 Grotta 5 May 28 – Jun 15 1 in 16
5 HK Kopavogur 4 Jun 24 – Jul 12 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HK Kopavogur 17 May 13 – Aug 16 1 in 352
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 11 May 13 – Jul 12 1 in 151
3 IA Akranes 4 Aug 12 – Aug 27 1 in 43
4 IR Reykjavik 6 Jul 16 – Aug 16 1 in 18
5 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 May 14 – Jun 6 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
IA Akranes53.44%20.94%10.27%5.90%3.82%2.34%1.38%1.01%0.47%0.24%0.16%0.03%
Selfoss18.11%22.38%16.26%11.70%9.40%6.83%5.17%3.96%2.73%1.98%1.01%0.47%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur7.07%12.52%13.72%13.45%11.85%10.25%8.43%6.93%5.89%4.87%3.20%1.82%
Vikingur Olafsvik5.32%10.54%12.26%11.78%11.26%10.78%9.84%8.01%7.10%6.13%3.97%3.01%
Fjolnir5.39%9.46%11.62%10.67%11.37%10.67%9.99%8.78%7.32%6.55%5.05%3.13%
IB Bolungarvik2.10%4.46%6.75%8.33%8.48%10.02%10.67%10.63%10.68%10.01%9.43%8.44%
Throttur Reykjavik1.57%2.90%4.51%6.47%7.70%8.14%9.65%10.69%11.58%11.69%12.58%12.52%
KA Akureyri0.39%1.36%2.75%3.63%4.76%6.38%7.50%9.44%11.58%13.46%17.45%21.30%
IR Reykjavik2.81%5.68%7.68%9.31%9.96%10.46%10.05%10.34%10.03%9.62%7.82%6.24%
Leiknir Reykjavik1.79%4.91%6.95%8.62%9.67%9.52%10.64%10.84%10.26%10.08%9.18%7.54%
Grotta1.45%3.47%5.31%7.15%7.57%9.01%9.68%10.05%11.58%11.42%11.94%11.37%
HK Kopavogur0.56%1.38%1.92%2.99%4.16%5.60%7.00%9.32%10.78%13.95%18.21%24.13%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.55%
No Edge
41.67%21.21%37.12%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.80 Elo pts.
180 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
IA Akranes, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.07 * Lucky: 7.07 to 9.42 * Wild Swing: 9.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.98 * Off: 2.98 to 3.97 * Way Off: 3.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.19 * A Surprise: 1.19 to 1.9 * Several Surprises: 1.9 to 2.62 * Many Surprises: 2.62 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.73 points
Some Luck
05.8915
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.485
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.57%
Selfoss
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.98%
HK Kopavogur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.51
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.41
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.47
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 74.38% 25.43% 0.19%
Selfoss 40.49% 58.03% 1.48%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 19.59% 75.39% 5.02%
Vikingur Olafsvik 15.86% 77.16% 6.98%
Fjolnir 14.85% 76.97% 8.18%
IR Reykjavik 8.49% 77.45% 14.06%
Leiknir Reykjavik 6.70% 76.58% 16.72%
IB Bolungarvik 6.56% 75.57% 17.87%
Grotta 4.92% 71.77% 23.31%
Throttur Reykjavik 4.47% 70.43% 25.10%
KA Akureyri 1.75% 59.50% 38.75%
HK Kopavogur 1.94% 55.72% 42.34%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2011-05-13 Fjolnir L 2-3 1059 1064 42.4% 26.4% 31.2% -9.1 0
2011-05-13 @ Selfoss W 3-2 1064 1059 31.2% 26.4% 42.4% +9.1 3
2011-05-13 Grotta D 1-1 1050 1069 40.4% 26.4% 33.2% -0.3 1
2011-05-13 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1069 1050 33.2% 26.4% 40.4% +0.3 1
2011-05-13 IA Akranes L 0-3 1066 1052 45.0% 26.2% 28.9% -29.3 0
2011-05-13 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1052 1066 28.9% 26.2% 45.0% +29.3 3
2011-05-13 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1069 1023 49.2% 25.7% 25.1% -1.4 1
2011-05-13 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1023 1069 25.1% 25.7% 49.2% +1.4 1
2011-05-14 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1069 1060 44.3% 26.2% 29.4% -10.0 0
2011-05-14 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1060 1069 29.4% 26.2% 44.3% +10.0 3
2011-05-14 IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1069 1106 37.9% 26.5% 35.6% -8.8 0
2011-05-14 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1106 1069 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% +8.8 3
2011-05-19 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1068 1036 47.2% 25.9% 26.8% -1.0 2
2011-05-19 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1036 1068 26.8% 25.9% 47.2% +1.0 1
2011-05-19 Selfoss L 0-3 1070 1050 45.7% 26.1% 28.2% -29.7 1
2011-05-19 @ Grotta W 3-0 1050 1070 28.2% 26.1% 45.7% +29.7 3
2011-05-19 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1081 1049 47.2% 25.9% 26.8% +7.2 6
2011-05-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1049 1081 26.8% 25.9% 47.2% -7.2 1
2011-05-20 IR Reykjavik W 3-0 1024 1115 30.5% 26.3% 43.2% +28.4 4
2011-05-20 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1115 1024 43.2% 26.3% 30.5% -28.4 3
2011-05-20 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1073 1059 45.0% 26.2% 28.9% +14.4 6
2011-05-20 @ Fjolnir L 0-2 1059 1073 28.9% 26.2% 45.0% -14.4 0
2011-05-21 IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1070 1060 44.4% 26.2% 29.4% -10.0 3
2011-05-21 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1060 1070 29.4% 26.2% 44.4% +10.0 3
2011-05-28 Fjolnir W 3-1 1070 1088 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% +13.8 6
2011-05-28 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-3 1088 1070 32.9% 26.4% 40.7% -13.8 6
2011-05-28 Grotta D 1-1 1045 1040 43.7% 26.3% 30.0% -0.7 1
2011-05-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1040 1045 30.0% 26.3% 43.7% +0.7 2
2011-05-28 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1087 1060 46.7% 26.0% 27.3% -18.0 3
2011-05-28 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1060 1087 27.3% 26.0% 46.7% +18.0 6
2011-05-28 IA Akranes L 1-2 1080 1088 41.9% 26.4% 31.7% -9.5 3
2011-05-28 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1088 1080 31.7% 26.4% 41.9% +9.5 9
2011-05-28 KA Akureyri L 3-4 1037 1052 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% -8.7 1
2011-05-28 @ HK Kopavogur W 4-3 1052 1037 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% +8.7 7
2011-05-28 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-1 1042 1067 39.7% 26.5% 33.9% +14.1 4
2011-05-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1067 1042 33.9% 26.5% 39.7% -14.1 2
2011-06-02 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1061 1078 40.8% 26.4% 32.8% -18.7 7
2011-06-02 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1078 1061 32.8% 26.4% 40.8% +18.7 9
2011-06-02 IB Bolungarvik W 1-0 1041 1084 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% +9.1 5
2011-06-02 @ Grotta L 0-1 1084 1041 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% -9.1 6
2011-06-02 IR Reykjavik L 2-3 1074 1069 43.8% 26.3% 30.0% -9.4 6
2011-06-02 @ Fjolnir W 3-2 1069 1074 30.0% 26.3% 43.8% +9.4 6
2011-06-02 Selfoss D 1-1 1053 1070 40.6% 26.4% 32.9% -0.4 3
2011-06-02 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1070 1053 32.9% 26.4% 40.6% +0.4 4
2011-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1029 1056 39.2% 26.5% 34.3% -9.1 1
2011-06-02 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1056 1029 34.3% 26.5% 39.2% +9.1 7
2011-06-02 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1098 1044 50.0% 25.6% 24.4% -1.3 10
2011-06-02 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1044 1098 24.4% 25.6% 50.0% +1.3 2
2011-06-06 HK Kopavogur W 4-2 1071 1020 49.7% 25.6% 24.6% +9.8 7
2011-06-06 @ Selfoss L 2-4 1020 1071 24.6% 25.6% 49.7% -9.8 1
2011-06-06 Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1045 1052 42.1% 26.4% 31.5% -0.6 3
2011-06-06 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1052 1045 31.5% 26.4% 42.1% +0.6 4
2011-06-07 Fjolnir D 0-0 1097 1064 47.3% 25.9% 26.7% -1.1 10
2011-06-07 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1064 1097 26.7% 25.9% 47.3% +1.2 7
2011-06-07 Grotta D 0-0 1078 1050 46.9% 26.0% 27.2% -1.1 7
2011-06-07 @ IR Reykjavik D 0-0 1050 1078 27.2% 26.0% 46.9% +1.1 6
2011-06-07 IA Akranes L 0-6 1075 1096 40.1% 26.5% 33.4% -51.2 6
2011-06-07 @ IB Bolungarvik W 6-0 1096 1075 33.4% 26.5% 40.1% +51.2 13
2011-06-07 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1065 1042 46.1% 26.1% 27.8% +7.4 10
2011-06-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1042 1065 27.8% 26.1% 46.1% -7.4 7
2011-06-09 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1010 1045 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% -17.8 1
2011-06-09 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1045 1010 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% +17.8 6
2011-06-10 Fjolnir L 1-4 1035 1066 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -22.0 7
2011-06-10 @ KA Akureyri W 4-1 1066 1035 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +22.0 10
2011-06-10 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1051 1095 36.8% 26.5% 36.7% +8.2 9
2011-06-10 @ Grotta L 2-3 1095 1051 36.7% 26.5% 36.8% -8.2 10
2011-06-10 IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1148 1077 52.1% 25.3% 22.6% +10.2 16
2011-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1077 1148 22.6% 25.3% 52.1% -10.2 7
2011-06-10 Selfoss L 0-3 1073 1080 42.0% 26.4% 31.6% -27.8 10
2011-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1080 1073 31.6% 26.4% 42.0% +27.8 10
2011-06-11 IB Bolungarvik L 0-1 1053 1024 46.9% 26.0% 27.1% -11.1 4
2011-06-11 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1024 1053 27.1% 26.0% 46.9% +11.1 9
2011-06-15 Grotta D 0-0 1088 1059 46.9% 26.0% 27.1% -1.1 11
2011-06-15 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1059 1088 27.1% 26.0% 46.9% +1.1 10
2011-06-15 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1035 992 48.7% 25.8% 25.5% +6.5 12
2011-06-15 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 992 1035 25.5% 25.8% 48.7% -6.5 1
2011-06-15 IA Akranes L 0-1 1087 1158 33.2% 26.5% 40.4% -8.5 10
2011-06-15 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1158 1087 40.4% 26.5% 33.2% +8.5 19
2011-06-15 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1108 1013 55.0% 24.7% 20.3% +15.5 13
2011-06-15 @ Selfoss L 0-3 1013 1108 20.3% 24.7% 55.0% -15.5 7
2011-06-16 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1067 1042 46.4% 26.0% 27.6% +6.6 10
2011-06-16 @ IR Reykjavik L 2-3 1042 1067 27.6% 26.0% 46.4% -6.6 4
2011-06-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1063 1045 45.4% 26.1% 28.4% +7.1 9
2011-06-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1045 1063 28.4% 26.1% 45.4% -7.1 10
2011-06-23 Fjolnir W 6-0 1166 1087 53.2% 25.1% 21.7% +31.5 22
2011-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-6 1087 1166 21.7% 25.1% 53.2% -31.5 11
2011-06-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1035 1079 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% -8.7 4
2011-06-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1079 1035 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% +8.7 13
2011-06-23 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1124 1070 50.1% 25.6% 24.3% +10.8 16
2011-06-23 @ Selfoss L 1-3 1070 1124 24.3% 25.6% 50.1% -10.8 9
2011-06-24 Grotta W 1-0 998 1060 34.3% 26.5% 39.2% +9.6 10
2011-06-24 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1060 998 39.2% 26.5% 34.3% -9.6 10
2011-06-24 IR Reykjavik D 1-1 986 1073 30.9% 26.3% 42.8% +0.6 2
2011-06-24 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1073 986 42.8% 26.3% 30.9% -0.6 11
2011-06-26 IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1038 1041 42.6% 26.3% 31.1% -0.4 11
2011-06-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1041 1038 31.1% 26.3% 42.6% +0.4 13
2011-06-29 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1087 986 55.7% 24.5% 19.8% -1.9 14
2011-06-29 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 986 1087 19.8% 24.5% 55.7% +1.9 3
2011-06-29 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1059 1007 49.8% 25.6% 24.6% +6.3 12
2011-06-29 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1007 1059 24.6% 25.6% 49.8% -6.3 10
2011-06-30 IA Akranes L 0-2 1050 1198 24.0% 25.5% 50.5% -12.3 10
2011-06-30 @ Grotta W 2-0 1198 1050 50.5% 25.5% 24.0% +12.3 25
2011-06-30 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-3 1055 1027 46.9% 26.0% 27.2% +6.3 14
2011-06-30 @ Fjolnir L 3-4 1027 1055 27.2% 26.0% 46.9% -6.3 4
2011-06-30 Selfoss L 0-1 1042 1134 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% -7.9 13
2011-06-30 @ IB Bolungarvik W 1-0 1134 1042 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% +7.9 19
2011-06-30 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1073 1038 47.7% 25.9% 26.4% -11.2 11
2011-06-30 @ IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1038 1073 26.4% 25.9% 47.7% +11.2 14
2011-07-07 Fjolnir D 1-1 988 1061 32.8% 26.4% 40.8% +0.4 4
2011-07-07 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1061 988 40.8% 26.4% 32.8% -0.4 15
2011-07-07 Grotta L 1-2 1020 1038 40.6% 26.4% 33.0% -9.3 4
2011-07-07 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1038 1020 33.0% 26.4% 40.6% +9.3 13
2011-07-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1049 1086 37.9% 26.5% 35.6% +8.4 17
2011-07-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1086 1049 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% -8.4 14
2011-07-07 IR Reykjavik W 2-1 1142 1062 53.3% 25.0% 21.6% +5.6 22
2011-07-07 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1062 1142 21.6% 25.0% 53.3% -5.6 11
2011-07-08 IA Akranes L 1-4 1001 1210 18.3% 24.1% 57.6% -11.8 10
2011-07-08 @ KA Akureyri W 4-1 1210 1001 57.6% 24.1% 18.3% +11.8 28
2011-07-08 IB Bolungarvik W 4-1 1065 1034 47.2% 25.9% 26.8% +16.6 15
2011-07-08 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-4 1034 1065 26.8% 25.9% 47.2% -16.6 13
2011-07-12 HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1047 988 50.7% 25.5% 23.8% -1.5 14
2011-07-12 @ Grotta D 0-0 988 1047 23.8% 25.5% 50.7% +1.5 5
2011-07-12 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1017 989 46.8% 26.0% 27.2% +6.8 16
2011-07-12 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 989 1017 27.2% 26.0% 46.8% -6.8 10
2011-07-12 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1222 1011 66.7% 21.1% 12.2% +6.4 31
2011-07-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1011 1222 12.2% 21.1% 66.7% -6.4 4
2011-07-12 Selfoss W 2-1 1077 1148 33.1% 26.4% 40.4% +9.3 17
2011-07-12 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1148 1077 40.4% 26.4% 33.1% -9.3 22
2011-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1061 1057 43.6% 26.3% 30.1% +7.0 18
2011-07-12 @ Fjolnir L 2-3 1057 1061 30.1% 26.3% 43.6% -7.0 17
2011-07-12 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1056 1082 39.5% 26.5% 34.1% +8.7 14
2011-07-12 @ IR Reykjavik L 0-1 1082 1056 34.1% 26.5% 39.5% -8.6 15
2011-07-15 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1228 990 69.1% 20.1% 10.9% +2.8 34
2011-07-15 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 990 1228 10.9% 20.1% 69.1% -2.8 5
2011-07-15 Selfoss L 0-1 1068 1139 33.2% 26.4% 40.4% -8.5 18
2011-07-15 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1139 1068 40.4% 26.4% 33.2% +8.5 25
2011-07-15 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1046 1050 42.5% 26.4% 31.2% -10.2 14
2011-07-15 @ Grotta W 1-0 1050 1046 31.2% 26.4% 42.5% +10.2 20
2011-07-15 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1086 1073 44.9% 26.2% 29.0% +7.6 20
2011-07-15 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1073 1086 29.0% 26.2% 44.9% -7.6 15
2011-07-16 IB Bolungarvik L 2-3 1065 1024 48.4% 25.8% 25.8% -10.2 14
2011-07-16 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-2 1024 1065 25.8% 25.8% 48.4% +10.2 19
2011-07-16 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 982 1004 40.0% 26.5% 33.6% -18.4 10
2011-07-16 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1004 982 33.6% 26.5% 40.0% +18.4 7
2011-07-19 IA Akranes L 0-6 1060 1231 21.6% 25.0% 53.3% -31.3 20
2011-07-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 6-0 1231 1060 53.3% 25.0% 21.6% +31.3 37
2011-07-21 Grotta W 4-0 1147 1036 56.8% 24.3% 18.9% +18.9 28
2011-07-21 @ Selfoss L 0-4 1036 1147 18.9% 24.3% 56.8% -18.9 14
2011-07-21 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 987 1023 38.1% 26.5% 35.4% -25.8 5
2011-07-21 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1023 987 35.4% 26.5% 38.1% +25.8 10
2011-07-22 Fjolnir D 2-2 1066 1060 43.9% 26.3% 29.9% -0.5 16
2011-07-22 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 1060 1066 29.9% 26.3% 43.9% +0.5 19
2011-07-22 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1054 964 54.5% 24.8% 20.7% -1.8 15
2011-07-22 @ IR Reykjavik D 1-1 964 1054 20.7% 24.8% 54.5% +1.8 11
2011-07-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1034 1094 34.7% 26.5% 38.9% +0.2 20
2011-07-23 @ IB Bolungarvik D 0-0 1094 1034 38.9% 26.5% 34.7% -0.2 21
2011-07-26 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 966 961 43.6% 26.3% 30.1% +7.4 14
2011-07-26 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 961 966 30.1% 26.3% 43.6% -7.4 5
2011-07-26 Selfoss W 2-1 1262 1166 55.1% 24.7% 20.2% +5.3 40
2011-07-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1166 1262 20.2% 24.7% 55.1% -5.3 28
2011-07-26 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1017 1065 36.3% 26.5% 37.2% -8.6 14
2011-07-26 @ Grotta W 2-1 1065 1017 37.2% 26.5% 36.3% +8.6 19
2011-07-27 IB Bolungarvik D 1-1 1060 1034 46.5% 26.0% 27.5% -0.9 20
2011-07-27 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1034 1060 27.5% 26.0% 46.5% +1.0 21
2011-07-27 IR Reykjavik W 3-2 1094 1053 48.5% 25.8% 25.7% +6.2 24
2011-07-27 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1053 1094 25.7% 25.8% 48.5% -6.2 15
2011-07-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1049 1029 45.7% 26.1% 28.2% +22.3 13
2011-07-27 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-5 1029 1049 28.2% 26.1% 45.7% -22.3 20
2011-08-04 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1161 1071 54.4% 24.8% 20.8% +5.8 31
2011-08-04 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1071 1161 20.8% 24.8% 54.4% -5.8 13
2011-08-05 Fjolnir L 0-1 1046 1059 41.3% 26.4% 32.3% -10.0 15
2011-08-05 @ IR Reykjavik W 1-0 1059 1046 32.3% 26.4% 41.3% +10.0 23
2011-08-05 HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1007 954 50.0% 25.6% 24.4% +10.9 23
2011-08-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 954 1007 24.4% 25.6% 50.0% -10.9 5
2011-08-05 IA Akranes L 0-1 1074 1268 19.5% 24.5% 56.0% -5.5 19
2011-08-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1268 1074 56.0% 24.5% 19.5% +5.5 43
2011-08-06 Grotta D 1-1 1035 1008 46.7% 26.0% 27.3% -1.0 22
2011-08-06 @ IB Bolungarvik D 1-1 1008 1035 27.3% 26.0% 46.7% +1.0 15
2011-08-06 KA Akureyri L 1-2 1100 973 58.5% 23.8% 17.7% -12.6 24
2011-08-06 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 973 1100 17.7% 23.8% 58.5% +12.6 17
2011-08-09 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1069 1087 40.5% 26.4% 33.0% -0.4 24
2011-08-09 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1087 1069 33.0% 26.4% 40.5% +0.4 25
2011-08-11 IR Reykjavik W 4-1 1009 1036 39.3% 26.5% 34.3% +20.1 18
2011-08-11 @ Grotta L 1-4 1036 1009 34.3% 26.5% 39.3% -20.1 15
2011-08-11 Selfoss D 0-0 943 1167 17.2% 23.6% 59.2% +2.5 6
2011-08-11 @ HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1167 943 59.2% 23.6% 17.2% -2.5 32
2011-08-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-1 986 1018 38.6% 26.5% 34.9% +20.4 20
2011-08-11 @ KA Akureyri L 1-4 1018 986 34.9% 26.5% 38.6% -20.4 23
2011-08-11 Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-3 1065 1068 42.7% 26.3% 31.0% -9.2 13
2011-08-11 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1068 1065 31.0% 26.3% 42.7% +9.2 22
2011-08-12 IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1273 1034 69.1% 20.0% 10.9% -14.5 43
2011-08-12 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1034 1273 10.9% 20.0% 69.1% +14.5 25
2011-08-16 Grotta D 0-0 1088 1029 50.7% 25.5% 23.8% -1.5 26
2011-08-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1029 1088 23.8% 25.5% 50.7% +1.5 19
2011-08-16 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1077 946 59.0% 23.7% 17.3% +13.3 25
2011-08-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-3 946 1077 17.3% 23.7% 59.0% -13.3 6
2011-08-16 IA Akranes D 1-1 1016 1259 15.8% 23.1% 61.1% +2.4 16
2011-08-16 @ IR Reykjavik D 1-1 1259 1016 61.1% 23.1% 15.8% -2.4 44
2011-08-16 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1049 1056 42.1% 26.4% 31.5% +8.2 28
2011-08-16 @ IB Bolungarvik L 0-1 1056 1049 31.5% 26.4% 42.1% -8.2 13
2011-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1164 997 62.5% 22.6% 14.8% -14.1 32
2011-08-16 @ Selfoss W 1-0 997 1164 14.8% 22.6% 62.5% +14.1 26
2011-08-19 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1256 1086 62.9% 22.5% 14.6% -26.8 44
2011-08-19 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1086 1256 14.6% 22.5% 62.9% +26.8 29
2011-08-19 IR Reykjavik L 1-2 1048 1019 46.9% 26.0% 27.1% -10.4 13
2011-08-19 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1019 1048 27.1% 26.0% 46.9% +10.5 19
2011-08-19 Selfoss L 1-2 1006 1150 24.3% 25.6% 50.1% -6.2 20
2011-08-19 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1150 1006 50.1% 25.6% 24.3% +6.2 35
2011-08-19 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-4 1011 1091 32.0% 26.4% 41.6% -29.6 26
2011-08-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-0 1091 1011 41.6% 26.4% 32.0% +29.6 28
2011-08-20 Fjolnir L 0-2 1031 1069 37.8% 26.5% 35.8% -17.6 19
2011-08-20 @ Grotta W 2-0 1069 1031 35.8% 26.5% 37.8% +17.6 27
2011-08-20 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 932 1057 26.4% 25.9% 47.7% +30.8 9
2011-08-20 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-3 1057 932 47.7% 25.9% 26.4% -30.8 28
2011-08-23 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1086 1000 54.0% 24.9% 21.1% +16.0 30
2011-08-23 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 1000 1086 21.1% 24.9% 54.0% -16.0 20
2011-08-25 HK Kopavogur L 0-3 1029 963 51.6% 25.4% 23.1% -32.9 19
2011-08-25 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-0 963 1029 23.1% 25.4% 51.6% +32.9 12
2011-08-25 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1113 1037 52.7% 25.1% 22.1% +16.7 32
2011-08-25 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1037 1113 22.1% 25.1% 52.7% -16.7 13
2011-08-27 IA Akranes D 1-1 1102 1230 26.2% 25.9% 48.0% +1.1 31
2011-08-27 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1230 1102 48.0% 25.9% 26.2% -1.1 45
2011-08-27 KA Akureyri L 0-3 1013 984 47.0% 26.0% 27.0% -30.4 19
2011-08-27 @ Grotta W 3-0 984 1013 27.0% 26.0% 47.0% +30.4 23
2011-08-27 Selfoss L 0-1 1120 1156 38.0% 26.5% 35.5% -9.4 28
2011-08-27 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1156 1120 35.5% 26.5% 38.0% +9.4 38
2011-08-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1026 982 48.9% 25.8% 25.3% +6.5 31
2011-08-27 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 982 1026 25.3% 25.8% 48.9% -6.5 26
2011-09-01 Fjolnir W 3-0 1021 1103 31.6% 26.4% 42.1% +27.8 16
2011-09-01 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1103 1021 42.1% 26.4% 31.6% -27.8 31
2011-09-01 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 996 1130 25.4% 25.8% 48.8% -13.0 12
2011-09-01 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1130 996 48.8% 25.8% 25.4% +13.0 35
2011-09-01 IR Reykjavik L 1-3 975 996 40.2% 26.5% 33.4% -16.0 26
2011-09-01 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 996 975 33.4% 26.5% 40.2% +16.0 22
2011-09-03 Grotta W 2-1 1228 983 69.7% 19.8% 10.5% +2.7 48
2011-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 983 1228 10.5% 19.8% 69.7% -2.7 19
2011-09-03 IB Bolungarvik W 4-3 1166 1033 59.1% 23.7% 17.2% +4.2 41
2011-09-03 @ Selfoss L 3-4 1033 1166 17.2% 23.7% 59.1% -4.2 31
2011-09-03 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-3 1014 1111 29.8% 26.2% 44.0% +9.2 26
2011-09-03 @ KA Akureyri L 3-4 1111 1014 44.0% 26.2% 29.8% -9.2 28
2011-09-10 HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1076 983 54.7% 24.8% 20.5% -1.3 32
2011-09-10 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 983 1076 20.5% 24.8% 54.7% +1.3 13
2011-09-10 KA Akureyri W 5-0 1231 1023 66.4% 21.2% 12.4% +15.3 51
2011-09-10 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 1023 1231 12.4% 21.2% 66.4% -15.3 26
2011-09-10 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 980 1048 33.5% 26.5% 40.1% +0.3 20
2011-09-10 @ Grotta D 1-1 1048 980 40.1% 26.5% 33.5% -0.3 17
2011-09-10 Selfoss L 1-3 1012 1170 22.9% 25.3% 51.7% -10.3 22
2011-09-10 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1170 1012 51.7% 25.3% 22.9% +10.3 44
2011-09-10 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1143 959 64.1% 22.1% 13.8% -1.7 36
2011-09-10 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 959 1143 13.8% 22.1% 64.1% +1.7 27
2011-09-10 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1029 1102 32.9% 26.4% 40.7% -8.4 31
2011-09-10 @ IB Bolungarvik W 1-0 1102 1029 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% +8.4 31
2011-09-17 Fjolnir W 7-2 961 1074 27.8% 26.1% 46.2% +33.4 30
2011-09-17 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-7 1074 961 46.2% 26.1% 27.8% -33.4 32
2011-09-17 Grotta W 1-0 984 980 43.6% 26.3% 30.1% +7.9 16
2011-09-17 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 980 984 30.1% 26.3% 43.6% -7.9 20
2011-09-17 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1180 1141 48.2% 25.8% 25.9% +6.2 47
2011-09-17 @ Selfoss L 2-3 1141 1180 25.9% 25.8% 48.2% -6.2 36
2011-09-17 IA Akranes W 4-1 1048 1246 19.2% 24.4% 56.5% +29.9 20
2011-09-17 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-4 1246 1048 56.5% 24.4% 19.2% -29.9 51
2011-09-17 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 1008 1020 41.4% 26.4% 32.2% +22.7 29
2011-09-17 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1020 1008 32.2% 26.4% 41.4% -22.7 31
2011-09-17 IR Reykjavik W 3-1 1110 1002 56.4% 24.4% 19.2% +8.8 34
2011-09-17 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-3 1002 1110 19.2% 24.4% 56.4% -8.8 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-08-12 10.86% IB Bolungarvik 1034 2 @ IA Akranes 1273 1
2 2011-08-19 14.64% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1086 2 @ IA Akranes 1256 0
3 2011-08-16 14.84% Throttur Reykjavik 997 1 @ Selfoss 1164 0
4 2011-08-06 17.67% KA Akureyri 973 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1100 1
5 2011-09-17 19.18% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1048 4 IA Akranes 1246 1
6 2011-08-25 23.06% HK Kopavogur 963 3 @ IR Reykjavik 1029 0
7 2011-07-16 25.78% IB Bolungarvik 1024 3 @ IR Reykjavik 1065 2
8 2011-06-30 26.36% Throttur Reykjavik 1038 1 @ IR Reykjavik 1073 0
9 2011-08-20 26.42% @ HK Kopavogur 932 3 IB Bolungarvik 1057 0
10 2011-08-27 27.04% KA Akureyri 984 3 @ Grotta 1013 0
11 2011-06-11 27.07% IB Bolungarvik 1024 1 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1053 0
12 2011-08-19 27.09% IR Reykjavik 1019 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1048 1
13 2011-05-28 27.34% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1060 3 @ IR Reykjavik 1087 1
14 2011-09-17 27.76% @ Throttur Reykjavik 961 7 Fjolnir 1074 2
15 2011-05-19 28.21% Selfoss 1050 3 @ Grotta 1070 0
16 2011-05-13 28.87% IA Akranes 1052 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1066 0
17 2011-05-21 29.42% IB Bolungarvik 1060 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1070 1
18 2011-05-14 29.45% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1060 2 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1069 1
19 2011-09-03 29.77% @ KA Akureyri 1014 4 Vikingur Olafsvik 1111 3
20 2011-06-02 29.98% IR Reykjavik 1069 3 @ Fjolnir 1074 2
21 2011-05-20 30.47% @ KA Akureyri 1024 3 IR Reykjavik 1115 0
22 2011-08-11 31.00% Vikingur Olafsvik 1068 3 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1065 2
23 2011-07-15 31.17% Throttur Reykjavik 1050 1 @ Grotta 1046 0
24 2011-05-13 31.25% Fjolnir 1064 3 @ Selfoss 1059 2
25 2011-09-01 31.55% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1021 3 Fjolnir 1103 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-06-07 51.24 IA Akranes 6 1096 33.44% @ IB Bolungarvik 0 1075 40.11% 26.45%
2 2011-09-17 33.42 @ Throttur Reykjavik 7 961 27.76% Fjolnir 2 1074 46.18% 26.06%
3 2011-08-25 32.86 HK Kopavogur 3 963 23.06% @ IR Reykjavik 0 1029 51.60% 25.35%
4 2011-06-23 31.46 @ IA Akranes 6 1166 53.20% Fjolnir 0 1087 21.74% 25.06%
5 2011-07-19 31.34 IA Akranes 6 1231 53.32% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1060 21.64% 25.04%
6 2011-08-20 30.75 @ HK Kopavogur 3 932 26.42% IB Bolungarvik 0 1057 47.68% 25.90%
7 2011-08-27 30.39 KA Akureyri 3 984 27.04% @ Grotta 0 1013 46.98% 25.98%
8 2011-09-17 29.93 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 4 1048 19.18% IA Akranes 1 1246 56.46% 24.36%
9 2011-05-19 29.69 Selfoss 3 1050 28.21% @ Grotta 0 1070 45.68% 26.11%
10 2011-08-19 29.56 Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1091 41.59% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1011 32.02% 26.39%
11 2011-05-13 29.31 IA Akranes 3 1052 28.87% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1066 44.95% 26.17%
12 2011-05-20 28.40 @ KA Akureyri 3 1024 30.47% IR Reykjavik 0 1115 43.22% 26.30%
13 2011-09-01 27.80 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1021 31.55% Fjolnir 0 1103 42.08% 26.37%
14 2011-06-10 27.79 Selfoss 3 1080 31.60% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1073 42.03% 26.37%
15 2011-08-19 26.78 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 2 1086 14.64% @ IA Akranes 0 1256 62.86% 22.50%
16 2011-07-21 25.76 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1023 35.43% @ HK Kopavogur 0 987 38.07% 26.50%
17 2011-09-17 22.73 @ KA Akureyri 3 1008 41.39% IB Bolungarvik 0 1020 32.21% 26.40%
18 2011-07-27 22.30 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1049 45.70% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1029 28.19% 26.11%
19 2011-06-10 22.03 Fjolnir 4 1066 34.70% @ KA Akureyri 1 1035 38.81% 26.49%
20 2011-08-11 20.37 @ KA Akureyri 4 986 38.60% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1018 34.91% 26.49%
21 2011-08-11 20.09 @ Grotta 4 1009 39.26% IR Reykjavik 1 1036 34.26% 26.48%
22 2011-07-21 18.93 @ Selfoss 4 1147 56.82% Grotta 0 1036 18.91% 24.27%
23 2011-06-02 18.68 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 2 1078 32.82% @ KA Akureyri 0 1061 40.75% 26.43%
24 2011-07-16 18.40 Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1004 33.57% @ KA Akureyri 0 982 39.97% 26.46%
25 2011-05-28 18.01 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 1060 27.34% @ IR Reykjavik 1 1087 46.65% 26.02%