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2019 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Grotta

43 pts

Fjolnir · 42 pts

Relegated

Njardvik

15 pts

Haukar Hafnarfjordur · 22 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Grotta

11.64 points above expected

43 points · 31.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

11.45 points below expected

22 points · 33.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Grotta Promoted 22 12 7 3 43 45 31 +14 31.36 +11.64
2 Fjolnir Promoted 22 12 6 4 42 49 22 +27 38.37 +3.63
3 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 12 4 6 40 37 28 +9 30.20 +9.80
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 22 9 7 6 34 28 20 +8 36.88 -2.88
5 Keflavik IF 22 10 4 8 34 31 27 +4 27.37 +6.63
6 Thor Akureyri 22 9 7 6 34 31 30 +1 37.54 -3.54
7 Fram Reykjavik 22 10 3 9 33 33 32 +1 29.65 +3.35
8 Afturelding 22 6 5 11 23 30 37 -7 28.53 -5.53
9 IF Magni 22 6 5 11 23 27 49 -22 20.57 +2.43
10 Throttur Reykjavik 22 6 4 12 22 36 40 -4 33.45 -11.45
11 Haukar Hafnarfjordur Relegated 22 5 7 10 22 31 41 -10 24.77 -2.77
12 Njardvik Relegated 22 4 3 15 15 23 44 -21 22.82 -7.82

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fjolnir 1286 42 38.37 +3.63 75.6% 13 29 34 38 42 48 61
Leiknir Reykjavik 1175 40 30.20 +9.80 96.0% 9 21 26 30 34 40 55
Vikingur Olafsvik 1150 34 36.88 -2.88 34.1% 11 27 33 37 41 46 56
Grotta 1119 43 31.36 +11.64 98.2% 10 22 27 31 35 41 54
Afturelding 1099 23 28.53 -5.53 19.1% 9 19 25 28 32 38 48
Keflavik IF 1086 34 27.37 +6.63 89.6% 8 18 24 27 31 37 51
Fram Reykjavik 1076 33 29.65 +3.35 75.1% 9 20 26 30 33 39 51
Thor Akureyri 1066 34 37.54 -3.54 30.2% 16 28 34 38 42 47 59
Throttur Reykjavik 1000 22 33.45 -11.45 2.9% 11 24 29 33 37 43 54
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 995 22 24.77 -2.77 35.4% 6 16 21 25 29 34 45
IF Magni 976 23 20.57 +2.43 71.3% 5 12 17 20 24 30 44
Njardvik 879 15 22.82 -7.82 8.5% 5 14 19 23 26 32 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AFT FJO FR GRO HH IM KI LR NJA TA TR VO
Afturelding —
0-1-1
2.00
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.41
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.01
0-2-0
2.47
0-0-2
2.28
Fjolnir
1-1-0
3.52
 —
1-0-1
3.28
0-2-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.64
2-0-0
4.17
0-1-1
4.08
1-1-0
3.56
1-1-0
4.04
2-0-0
2.57
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
3.08
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.20
 —
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
3.07
1-1-0
3.51
0-0-2
3.15
1-0-1
2.54
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
2.47
1-1-0
1.87
Grotta
1-0-1
3.28
0-2-0
2.01
2-0-0
2.91
 —
1-1-0
3.26
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
2.03
1-1-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.37
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.83
1-1-0
2.39
0-1-1
2.20
 —
0-1-1
3.25
1-1-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.12
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
1.54
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
1.89
IF Magni
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
1.34
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-2
1.56
1-1-0
2.22
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
2.42
0-2-0
1.41
1-0-1
1.90
1-1-0
1.30
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
1.42
2-0-0
2.32
0-0-2
2.72
0-1-1
3.17
1-0-1
3.30
 —
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
3.18
1-1-0
1.73
1-0-1
2.31
2-0-0
1.87
Leiknir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.81
2-0-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.24
2-0-0
2.76
 —
1-0-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.00
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.15
Njardvik
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
1.46
0-0-2
2.41
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
3.03
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.06
 —
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
1.21
Thor Akureyri
2-0-0
3.46
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
3.20
0-1-1
3.46
1-1-0
3.97
0-2-0
4.09
0-1-1
3.75
1-1-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.59
 —
2-0-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.85
Throttur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.58
0-0-2
2.99
0-1-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.59
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.64
0-0-2
2.53
 —
0-1-1
2.54
Vikingur Olafsvik
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
2.37
0-1-1
3.61
1-1-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.58
0-1-1
4.22
0-0-2
3.61
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
4.32
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.91
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.55 +9.2
Allowed 0.66 -8.4
Differential 0.82 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%4.17%5.30%3.79%1.14%1.52%23.48%
14.17%12.12%8.33%6.06%2.27%1.14%34.09%
25.30%8.33%3.79%3.03%1.14%—21.59%
33.79%6.06%3.03%—0.38%—13.26%
41.14%2.27%1.14%0.38%——4.92%
5+1.52%1.14%————2.65%
Total23.48%34.09%21.59%13.26%4.92%2.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 2.08
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%18.18%——45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total22.73%27.27%18.18%27.27%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.68 -0.32
SD 1.29 1.36 2.23
CV 0.95 0.81 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%————13.64%
19.09%18.18%—4.55%4.55%—36.36%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
3—13.64%————13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%9.09%————13.64%
Total31.82%54.55%—9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.00 +1.23
SD 1.95 1.07 2.33
CV 0.88 1.07 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%——9.09%——13.64%
19.09%9.09%18.18%9.09%——45.45%
24.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%22.73%22.73%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.45 +0.05
SD 1.06 1.10 1.73
CV 0.71 0.76 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%——4.55%18.18%
14.55%4.55%————9.09%
24.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%——36.36%
34.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
44.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%31.82%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.41 +0.64
SD 1.29 1.26 1.87
CV 0.63 0.89 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
1—22.73%13.64%——4.55%40.91%
2—9.09%4.55%—9.09%—22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total9.09%40.91%27.27%4.55%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.86 -0.45
SD 1.30 1.36 2.11
CV 0.92 0.73 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
1—13.64%4.55%9.09%22.73%—50.00%
2—9.09%————9.09%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%13.64%13.64%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.23 -1.00
SD 1.02 1.77 2.33
CV 0.83 0.80 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
113.64%9.09%4.55%13.64%——40.91%
24.55%13.64%————18.18%
3—9.09%——4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%40.91%4.55%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.23 +0.18
SD 1.26 1.23 1.79
CV 0.89 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%9.09%——13.64%
14.55%13.64%13.64%———31.82%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%36.36%31.82%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.27 +0.41
SD 1.09 0.94 1.71
CV 0.65 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%18.18%—4.55%—40.91%
1—4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
2—9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%—27.27%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%36.36%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.00 -0.95
SD 1.05 1.27 1.62
CV 1.00 0.64 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
1—22.73%———4.55%27.27%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
313.64%9.09%————22.73%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%40.91%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.36 +0.05
SD 1.14 1.68 2.34
CV 0.81 1.23 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
1—4.55%18.18%13.64%——36.36%
2——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%18.18%40.91%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.82 -0.18
SD 1.76 1.37 2.48
CV 1.08 0.75 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
14.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
218.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total40.91%31.82%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 0.91 +0.36
SD 1.28 0.92 1.53
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Grotta 43 31.36 +11.64
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 40 30.20 +9.80
3 Keflavik IF 34 27.37 +6.63
4 Fjolnir 42 38.37 +3.63
5 Fram Reykjavik 33 29.65 +3.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 22 33.45 -11.45
2 Njardvik 15 22.82 -7.82
3 Afturelding 23 28.53 -5.53
4 Thor Akureyri 34 37.54 -3.54
5 Vikingur Olafsvik 34 36.88 -2.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grotta 4 Jun 13 – Jul 5 1 in 47
2 Keflavik IF 3 May 5 – May 17 1 in 23
3 IF Magni 2 Aug 10 – Aug 17 1 in 19
4 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 Jul 16 – Jul 25 1 in 11
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 2 – Jun 15 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Reykjavik 6 Aug 9 – Sep 14 1 in 786
2 Njardvik 6 Jun 1 – Jul 5 1 in 457
3 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 Jun 17 – Jun 22 1 in 47
4 Thor Akureyri 3 Aug 31 – Sep 14 1 in 30
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 16 – Jul 25 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grotta 15 May 31 – Aug 31 1 in 980
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 11 Jul 16 – Sep 21 1 in 105
3 Fjolnir 10 Jun 19 – Aug 16 1 in 16
4 IF Magni 3 Sep 8 – Sep 21 1 in 12
5 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 Jul 16 – Aug 9 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 6 Aug 16 – Sep 21 1 in 87
2 Fjolnir 4 Jul 31 – Aug 23 1 in 42
3 Throttur Reykjavik 7 Aug 9 – Sep 21 1 in 30
4 Njardvik 7 May 23 – Jul 5 1 in 25
5 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Grotta4.43%8.03%10.88%12.32%12.74%12.28%11.18%10.21%7.50%5.44%3.43%1.56%
Fjolnir33.39%21.89%14.93%10.31%7.23%4.84%3.16%2.11%1.13%0.53%0.37%0.11%
Leiknir Reykjavik3.15%6.18%8.16%10.63%11.57%12.37%12.55%11.59%9.51%7.18%4.88%2.23%
Vikingur Olafsvik21.40%20.38%16.58%13.56%9.20%6.80%5.00%3.12%2.09%1.19%0.51%0.17%
Keflavik IF0.88%2.13%4.40%6.21%7.67%10.68%11.61%13.18%14.57%12.68%10.25%5.74%
Thor Akureyri24.03%20.77%16.68%12.21%9.28%6.16%4.44%2.96%1.90%0.91%0.56%0.10%
Fram Reykjavik2.63%4.49%7.34%8.84%11.14%12.22%12.58%12.06%10.73%8.73%6.13%3.11%
Afturelding1.45%3.19%5.21%6.97%9.91%11.10%12.38%13.00%12.81%11.72%7.88%4.38%
IF Magni0.05%0.06%0.29%0.61%1.27%1.99%3.29%5.29%8.24%14.08%22.73%42.10%
Throttur Reykjavik8.16%11.63%13.12%13.90%12.83%11.05%9.70%7.70%5.43%3.64%2.06%0.78%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur0.31%0.91%1.78%2.85%4.46%6.47%8.59%10.94%14.24%16.98%17.82%14.65%
Njardvik0.12%0.34%0.63%1.59%2.70%4.04%5.52%7.84%11.85%16.92%23.38%25.07%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.33%
Slight Edge
42.42%23.48%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
307 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
4%
Grotta, 5th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.55 * Some Luck: 4.55 to 6.82 * Lucky: 6.82 to 9.09 * Wild Swing: 9.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.62 * Close: 1.62 to 2.43 * Off: 2.43 to 3.24 * Way Off: 3.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.87 * A Surprise: 0.87 to 1.39 * Several Surprises: 1.39 to 1.91 * Many Surprises: 1.91 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.81 points
Some Luck
05.6814
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.33
Close
02.035
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.19%
Grotta
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.91%
Throttur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.30
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.43
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.10
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.38
Overconfident
0.1975631.001.80244
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.144
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1420.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Fjolnir 55.28% 44.24% 0.48%
Thor Akureyri 44.80% 54.54% 0.66%
Vikingur Olafsvik 41.78% 57.54% 0.68%
Throttur Reykjavik 19.79% 77.37% 2.84%
Grotta 12.46% 82.55% 4.99%
Leiknir Reykjavik 9.33% 83.56% 7.11%
Fram Reykjavik 7.12% 83.64% 9.24%
Afturelding 4.64% 83.10% 12.26%
Keflavik IF 3.01% 81.00% 15.99%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1.22% 66.31% 32.47%
Njardvik 0.46% 51.09% 48.45%
IF Magni 0.11% 35.06% 64.83%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2019-05-04 Afturelding W 3-1 1126 1145 44.5% 27.1% 28.4% +21.1 3
2019-05-04 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1145 1126 28.4% 27.1% 44.5% -21.1 0
2019-05-04 IF Magni W 4-1 1067 1022 52.3% 26.4% 21.3% +23.7 3
2019-05-04 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-4 1022 1067 21.3% 26.4% 52.3% -23.7 0
2019-05-05 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1010 1054 41.1% 27.3% 31.6% +13.2 3
2019-05-05 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1054 1010 31.6% 27.3% 41.1% -13.2 0
2019-05-05 Grotta W 2-0 1171 1010 63.5% 24.0% 12.4% +11.8 3
2019-05-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1010 1171 12.4% 24.0% 63.5% -11.8 0
2019-05-05 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1078 1038 51.7% 26.5% 21.8% +9.8 3
2019-05-05 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1038 1078 21.8% 26.5% 51.7% -9.8 0
2019-05-05 Njardvik L 2-3 1134 1053 56.2% 25.8% 18.0% -19.8 0
2019-05-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1053 1134 18.0% 25.8% 56.2% +19.8 3
2019-05-10 Fjolnir W 3-2 1041 1088 40.8% 27.3% 32.0% +12.6 3
2019-05-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1088 1041 32.0% 27.3% 40.8% -12.6 3
2019-05-10 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1124 1091 51.0% 26.6% 22.4% +10.1 3
2019-05-10 @ Afturelding L 1-2 1091 1124 22.4% 26.6% 51.0% -10.1 3
2019-05-10 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 998 1114 31.1% 27.2% 41.6% +0.6 1
2019-05-10 @ Grotta D 2-2 1114 998 41.6% 27.2% 31.1% -0.7 1
2019-05-11 Keflavik IF L 1-3 998 1023 43.8% 27.2% 29.1% -29.2 0
2019-05-11 @ IF Magni W 3-1 1023 998 29.1% 27.2% 43.8% +29.2 6
2019-05-11 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1073 1148 36.8% 27.3% 35.9% -29.5 3
2019-05-11 @ Njardvik W 2-0 1148 1073 35.9% 27.3% 36.8% +29.6 6
2019-05-11 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1028 1183 26.3% 27.0% 46.7% +1.9 1
2019-05-11 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1183 1028 46.7% 27.0% 26.3% -2.0 4
2019-05-16 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1053 1030 49.8% 26.7% 23.5% -2.3 4
2019-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1030 1053 23.5% 26.7% 49.8% +2.3 2
2019-05-17 Afturelding W 5-0 1052 1134 35.8% 27.3% 36.9% +69.2 9
2019-05-17 @ Keflavik IF L 0-5 1134 1052 36.9% 27.3% 35.8% -69.2 3
2019-05-17 Njardvik L 1-2 1080 1043 51.4% 26.5% 22.1% -19.3 3
2019-05-17 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1043 1080 22.1% 26.5% 51.4% +19.3 6
2019-05-17 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 1113 1181 37.9% 27.3% 34.8% -15.1 1
2019-05-17 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1181 1113 34.8% 27.3% 37.9% +15.1 7
2019-05-18 Grotta L 2-3 1177 999 65.0% 23.6% 11.4% -22.6 6
2019-05-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 999 1177 11.4% 23.6% 65.0% +22.6 4
2019-05-18 IF Magni W 4-1 1075 969 58.6% 25.3% 16.1% +18.5 6
2019-05-18 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 969 1075 16.1% 25.3% 58.6% -18.5 0
2019-05-23 Fjolnir L 1-3 1065 1093 43.3% 27.2% 29.6% -29.0 3
2019-05-23 @ Afturelding W 3-1 1093 1065 29.6% 27.2% 43.3% +29.0 9
2019-05-23 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1062 1122 39.0% 27.3% 33.7% -0.5 7
2019-05-23 @ Njardvik D 0-0 1122 1062 33.7% 27.3% 39.0% +0.5 10
2019-05-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 2-4 1032 1098 38.1% 27.3% 34.6% -23.5 2
2019-05-23 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1098 1032 34.6% 27.3% 38.1% +23.5 4
2019-05-24 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1021 1061 41.7% 27.2% 31.1% -15.4 4
2019-05-24 @ Grotta W 3-2 1061 1021 31.1% 27.2% 41.7% +15.4 6
2019-05-24 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1196 1154 51.9% 26.5% 21.7% +19.6 10
2019-05-24 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1154 1196 21.7% 26.5% 51.9% -19.6 6
2019-05-25 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 951 1051 33.2% 27.3% 39.5% +0.5 1
2019-05-25 @ IF Magni D 1-1 1051 951 39.5% 27.3% 33.2% -0.5 5
2019-05-30 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 951 1009 39.3% 27.3% 33.4% -0.5 2
2019-05-30 @ IF Magni D 1-1 1009 951 33.4% 27.3% 39.3% +0.5 3
2019-05-31 Afturelding W 3-1 1051 1036 48.7% 26.8% 24.5% +18.8 8
2019-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1036 1051 24.5% 26.8% 48.7% -18.7 3
2019-05-31 Grotta L 1-2 1122 1006 59.6% 25.1% 15.3% -22.1 10
2019-05-31 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1006 1122 15.3% 25.1% 59.6% +22.1 7
2019-05-31 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1077 1215 28.2% 27.1% 44.7% +34.3 9
2019-05-31 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1215 1077 44.7% 27.1% 28.2% -34.3 10
2019-06-01 Njardvik W 1-0 1122 1062 54.0% 26.2% 19.8% +9.6 12
2019-06-01 @ Fjolnir L 0-1 1062 1122 19.8% 26.2% 54.0% -9.6 7
2019-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1135 1122 48.6% 26.8% 24.6% +21.8 9
2019-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1122 1135 24.6% 26.8% 48.6% -21.8 4
2019-06-06 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1052 1069 44.7% 27.1% 28.2% -18.2 7
2019-06-06 @ Njardvik W 1-0 1069 1052 28.2% 27.1% 44.7% +18.2 11
2019-06-07 Fjolnir D 0-0 1028 1132 32.7% 27.3% 40.0% +0.7 8
2019-06-07 @ Grotta D 0-0 1132 1028 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% -0.7 13
2019-06-07 IF Magni W 4-1 1017 951 54.7% 26.1% 19.3% +21.7 6
2019-06-07 @ Afturelding L 1-4 951 1017 19.3% 26.1% 54.7% -21.7 2
2019-06-07 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1100 1111 45.6% 27.0% 27.4% +34.4 7
2019-06-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 1111 1100 27.4% 27.0% 45.6% -34.4 9
2019-06-07 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1009 1157 27.2% 27.0% 45.8% -34.2 3
2019-06-07 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1157 1009 45.8% 27.0% 27.2% +34.2 12
2019-06-13 Grotta L 2-3 1088 1029 53.8% 26.2% 20.0% -19.1 11
2019-06-13 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1029 1088 20.0% 26.2% 53.8% +19.1 11
2019-06-13 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1039 975 54.4% 26.1% 19.5% -20.3 6
2019-06-13 @ Afturelding W 2-1 975 1039 19.5% 26.1% 54.4% +20.3 6
2019-06-13 Njardvik W 3-2 929 1034 32.6% 27.3% 40.1% +15.0 5
2019-06-13 @ IF Magni L 2-3 1034 929 40.1% 27.3% 32.6% -15.0 7
2019-06-13 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1100 1134 42.5% 27.2% 30.3% -28.5 10
2019-06-13 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1134 1100 30.3% 27.2% 42.5% +28.5 10
2019-06-13 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-3 1131 1181 40.4% 27.3% 32.4% -27.5 13
2019-06-13 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1181 1131 32.4% 27.3% 40.4% +27.4 13
2019-06-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1076 1191 31.3% 27.2% 41.4% -38.1 9
2019-06-15 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1191 1076 41.4% 27.2% 31.3% +38.1 15
2019-06-17 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1208 1071 61.5% 24.6% 13.9% -24.1 13
2019-06-17 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1071 1208 13.9% 24.6% 61.5% +24.1 13
2019-06-19 Fjolnir L 0-1 1163 1104 53.8% 26.2% 20.0% -21.4 10
2019-06-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1104 1163 20.0% 26.2% 53.8% +21.4 16
2019-06-20 Afturelding L 0-2 1019 1019 47.0% 26.9% 26.1% -35.8 7
2019-06-20 @ Njardvik W 2-0 1019 1019 26.1% 26.9% 47.0% +35.8 9
2019-06-20 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 995 1038 41.3% 27.3% 31.5% -16.1 6
2019-06-20 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1038 995 31.5% 27.3% 41.3% +16.1 12
2019-06-22 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1184 1068 59.6% 25.1% 15.3% -23.4 13
2019-06-22 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1068 1184 15.3% 25.1% 59.6% +23.4 14
2019-06-22 IF Magni W 4-1 1048 944 58.4% 25.4% 16.2% +18.6 14
2019-06-22 @ Grotta L 1-4 944 1048 16.2% 25.4% 58.4% -18.6 5
2019-06-22 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1229 1096 61.2% 24.7% 14.1% -4.9 16
2019-06-22 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1096 1229 14.1% 24.7% 61.2% +4.9 14
2019-06-24 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 983 979 47.4% 26.9% 25.7% -57.1 7
2019-06-24 @ Njardvik W 5-1 979 983 25.7% 26.9% 47.4% +57.1 9
2019-06-26 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1092 1142 40.4% 27.3% 32.4% +13.4 17
2019-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1142 1092 32.4% 27.3% 40.4% -13.4 10
2019-06-27 Grotta L 0-3 1055 1066 45.4% 27.1% 27.5% -50.6 9
2019-06-27 @ Afturelding W 3-0 1066 1055 27.5% 27.1% 45.4% +50.6 17
2019-06-27 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 1100 1054 52.4% 26.4% 21.2% -34.1 14
2019-06-27 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1054 1100 21.2% 26.4% 52.4% +34.0 15
2019-06-29 Thor Akureyri W 4-0 1125 1224 33.5% 27.3% 39.2% +58.8 19
2019-06-29 @ Fjolnir L 0-4 1224 1125 39.2% 27.3% 33.5% -58.8 16
2019-06-29 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 925 1161 18.2% 25.8% 56.0% +3.8 6
2019-06-29 @ IF Magni D 0-0 1161 925 56.0% 25.8% 18.2% -3.8 14
2019-07-04 Fjolnir L 0-2 1089 1184 33.9% 27.3% 38.8% -27.8 15
2019-07-04 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1184 1089 38.8% 27.3% 33.9% +27.8 22
2019-07-04 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1066 1036 50.6% 26.6% 22.8% -2.4 15
2019-07-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1036 1066 22.8% 26.6% 50.6% +2.4 10
2019-07-05 Afturelding W 2-0 1157 1004 62.9% 24.2% 12.9% +12.2 17
2019-07-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1004 1157 12.9% 24.2% 62.9% -12.2 9
2019-07-05 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1165 1105 53.9% 26.2% 19.9% +26.5 19
2019-07-05 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1105 1165 19.9% 26.2% 53.9% -26.5 17
2019-07-05 Njardvik W 3-1 1117 926 65.9% 23.3% 10.8% +8.9 20
2019-07-05 @ Grotta L 1-3 926 1117 10.8% 23.3% 65.9% -8.9 7
2019-07-06 IF Magni W 7-0 1128 929 66.6% 23.0% 10.4% +31.8 13
2019-07-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-7 929 1128 10.4% 23.0% 66.6% -31.8 6
2019-07-11 Grotta D 2-2 1039 1126 35.1% 27.3% 37.6% +0.2 11
2019-07-11 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1126 1039 37.6% 27.3% 35.1% -0.2 21
2019-07-11 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1212 1064 62.5% 24.4% 13.2% -4.6 23
2019-07-11 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1064 1212 13.2% 24.4% 62.5% +4.6 16
2019-07-11 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1079 1061 49.2% 26.8% 24.1% +10.7 20
2019-07-11 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1061 1079 24.1% 26.8% 49.2% -10.7 15
2019-07-11 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 897 1192 13.8% 24.6% 61.6% +4.4 7
2019-07-11 @ IF Magni D 1-1 1192 897 61.6% 24.6% 13.8% -4.4 20
2019-07-11 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 992 1160 24.8% 26.8% 48.4% +2.0 10
2019-07-11 @ Afturelding D 1-1 1160 992 48.4% 26.8% 24.8% -2.0 14
2019-07-11 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 917 1169 16.8% 25.5% 57.6% +62.2 10
2019-07-11 @ Njardvik L 0-3 1169 917 57.6% 25.5% 16.8% -62.2 17
2019-07-16 Afturelding W 3-2 1050 994 53.5% 26.2% 20.2% +8.8 18
2019-07-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 994 1050 20.2% 26.2% 53.5% -8.8 10
2019-07-16 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1207 1090 59.8% 25.1% 15.2% +12.4 26
2019-07-16 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1090 1207 15.2% 25.1% 59.8% -12.4 20
2019-07-16 Grotta L 0-1 1158 1126 50.8% 26.6% 22.6% -20.3 14
2019-07-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1126 1158 22.6% 26.6% 50.8% +20.3 24
2019-07-16 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1107 1039 54.9% 26.0% 19.1% +17.6 20
2019-07-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 1039 1107 19.1% 26.0% 54.9% -17.6 11
2019-07-16 IF Magni L 0-3 1068 902 64.0% 23.9% 12.1% -68.4 16
2019-07-16 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 902 1068 12.1% 23.9% 64.0% +68.4 10
2019-07-16 Njardvik W 2-1 1187 980 67.2% 22.8% 10.0% +4.7 23
2019-07-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 980 1187 10.0% 22.8% 67.2% -4.7 10
2019-07-20 Fjolnir L 1-5 1021 1220 21.6% 26.4% 52.0% -30.9 11
2019-07-20 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 5-1 1220 1021 52.0% 26.4% 21.6% +30.9 29
2019-07-20 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 970 1059 34.9% 27.3% 37.8% -41.2 10
2019-07-20 @ IF Magni W 3-0 1059 970 37.8% 27.3% 34.9% +41.2 21
2019-07-20 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 985 1192 20.8% 26.3% 52.9% -9.4 10
2019-07-20 @ Afturelding W 2-1 1192 985 52.9% 26.3% 20.8% +9.5 26
2019-07-20 Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 975 1138 25.4% 26.9% 47.7% -10.6 10
2019-07-20 @ Njardvik W 3-2 1138 975 47.7% 26.9% 25.4% +10.6 17
2019-07-20 Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 1146 1125 49.5% 26.7% 23.8% -1.7 25
2019-07-20 @ Grotta D 2-2 1125 1146 23.8% 26.7% 49.5% +1.7 21
2019-07-21 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1077 1000 55.8% 25.9% 18.4% -20.8 20
2019-07-21 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1000 1077 18.4% 25.9% 55.8% +20.8 19
2019-07-25 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 990 1056 38.1% 27.3% 34.6% +14.1 14
2019-07-25 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1056 990 34.6% 27.3% 38.1% -14.1 20
2019-07-25 Keflavik IF W 1-0 976 1021 41.0% 27.3% 31.8% +14.1 13
2019-07-25 @ Afturelding L 0-1 1021 976 31.8% 27.3% 41.0% -14.1 19
2019-07-25 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 964 1100 28.6% 27.1% 44.3% -24.5 10
2019-07-25 @ Njardvik W 2-0 1100 964 44.3% 27.1% 28.6% +24.5 24
2019-07-25 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1126 1148 44.2% 27.1% 28.7% -1.5 22
2019-07-25 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1148 1126 28.7% 27.1% 44.2% +1.5 18
2019-07-26 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1144 1201 39.3% 27.3% 33.4% -0.5 26
2019-07-26 @ Grotta D 1-1 1201 1144 33.4% 27.3% 39.3% +0.5 27
2019-07-27 Fjolnir L 1-3 929 1251 12.2% 23.9% 63.9% -10.0 10
2019-07-27 @ IF Magni W 3-1 1251 929 63.9% 23.9% 12.2% +10.0 32
2019-07-30 Grotta D 2-2 1125 1144 44.5% 27.1% 28.4% -1.0 25
2019-07-30 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1144 1125 28.4% 27.1% 44.5% +1.0 27
2019-07-30 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1150 1004 62.2% 24.4% 13.4% +9.8 21
2019-07-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-4 1004 1150 13.4% 24.4% 62.2% -9.8 14
2019-07-30 Njardvik W 1-0 1007 940 54.7% 26.1% 19.2% +9.4 22
2019-07-30 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 940 1007 19.2% 26.1% 54.7% -9.4 10
2019-07-30 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1202 1125 55.7% 25.9% 18.4% -3.4 28
2019-07-30 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1125 1202 18.4% 25.9% 55.7% +3.4 23
2019-07-31 Afturelding D 1-1 1261 990 71.6% 20.9% 7.4% -6.1 33
2019-07-31 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 990 1261 7.4% 20.9% 71.6% +6.1 14
2019-07-31 IF Magni W 4-1 1042 919 60.3% 24.9% 14.8% +17.1 23
2019-07-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 919 1042 14.8% 24.9% 60.3% -17.1 10
2019-08-09 Fjolnir D 1-1 930 1255 12.0% 23.9% 64.1% +4.9 11
2019-08-09 @ Njardvik D 1-1 1255 930 64.1% 23.9% 12.0% -4.9 34
2019-08-09 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 996 1059 38.4% 27.3% 34.3% +40.7 17
2019-08-09 @ Afturelding L 0-3 1059 996 34.3% 27.3% 38.4% -40.7 23
2019-08-09 Keflavik IF W 4-3 1145 1016 60.7% 24.8% 14.4% +6.3 30
2019-08-09 @ Grotta L 3-4 1016 1145 14.4% 24.8% 60.7% -6.3 22
2019-08-09 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1128 1124 47.5% 26.9% 25.6% -1.9 24
2019-08-09 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1124 1128 25.6% 26.9% 47.5% +1.9 26
2019-08-09 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1159 1199 41.8% 27.2% 31.0% -28.2 21
2019-08-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1199 1159 31.0% 27.2% 41.8% +28.2 31
2019-08-10 IF Magni L 1-2 995 902 57.4% 25.6% 17.1% -21.3 14
2019-08-10 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 902 995 17.1% 25.6% 57.4% +21.3 13
2019-08-15 Njardvik W 2-0 1019 935 56.4% 25.8% 17.8% +16.6 26
2019-08-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 935 1019 17.8% 25.8% 56.4% -16.6 11
2019-08-16 Grotta D 0-0 1250 1151 57.9% 25.5% 16.6% -4.2 35
2019-08-16 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1151 1250 16.6% 25.5% 57.9% +4.2 31
2019-08-16 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1227 973 70.5% 21.5% 8.1% -6.0 32
2019-08-16 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 973 1227 8.1% 21.5% 70.5% +5.9 15
2019-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1125 1131 46.2% 27.0% 26.8% +11.6 29
2019-08-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1131 1125 26.8% 27.0% 46.2% -11.6 21
2019-08-16 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1010 1127 31.1% 27.2% 41.7% +16.3 25
2019-08-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1127 1010 41.7% 27.2% 31.1% -16.2 24
2019-08-17 Afturelding W 3-1 923 1036 31.5% 27.3% 41.3% +27.9 16
2019-08-17 @ IF Magni L 1-3 1036 923 41.3% 27.3% 31.5% -27.9 17
2019-08-22 Afturelding D 1-1 979 1009 43.1% 27.2% 29.7% -1.1 16
2019-08-22 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1009 979 29.7% 27.2% 43.1% +1.1 18
2019-08-23 Fjolnir W 4-1 1110 1245 28.7% 27.1% 44.2% +41.7 27
2019-08-23 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-4 1245 1110 44.2% 27.1% 28.7% -41.7 35
2019-08-23 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1155 1035 60.0% 25.0% 15.0% +12.3 34
2019-08-23 @ Grotta L 1-3 1035 1155 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% -12.3 26
2019-08-23 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1120 1026 57.4% 25.6% 17.0% -37.0 21
2019-08-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1026 1120 17.0% 25.6% 57.4% +37.0 28
2019-08-24 IF Magni W 2-1 919 951 42.7% 27.2% 30.1% +12.7 14
2019-08-24 @ Njardvik L 1-2 951 919 30.1% 27.2% 42.7% -12.7 16
2019-08-24 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1221 1137 56.4% 25.8% 17.8% -3.5 33
2019-08-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1137 1221 17.8% 25.8% 56.4% +3.5 30
2019-08-30 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1141 978 63.7% 24.0% 12.3% +11.7 33
2019-08-30 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 978 1141 12.3% 24.0% 63.7% -11.7 16
2019-08-30 Throttur Reykjavik W 6-0 1204 1083 60.1% 25.0% 14.9% +39.2 38
2019-08-30 @ Fjolnir L 0-6 1083 1204 14.9% 25.0% 60.1% -39.2 21
2019-08-30 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-0 1023 1152 29.4% 27.2% 43.4% +1.3 27
2019-08-30 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1152 1023 43.4% 27.2% 29.4% -1.3 28
2019-08-31 Grotta L 0-2 938 1168 18.7% 25.9% 55.3% -17.3 16
2019-08-31 @ IF Magni W 2-0 1168 938 55.3% 25.9% 18.7% +17.3 37
2019-08-31 Njardvik D 2-2 1010 931 55.9% 25.9% 18.3% -2.5 19
2019-08-31 @ Afturelding D 2-2 931 1010 18.3% 25.9% 55.9% +2.5 15
2019-08-31 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1063 1217 26.4% 27.0% 46.7% +35.6 31
2019-08-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1217 1063 46.7% 27.0% 26.4% -35.6 33
2019-09-05 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1152 1099 53.2% 26.3% 20.5% +9.9 36
2019-09-05 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1099 1152 20.5% 26.3% 53.2% -9.9 31
2019-09-05 Njardvik W 4-0 966 934 50.9% 26.6% 22.6% +38.4 19
2019-09-05 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 934 966 22.6% 26.6% 50.9% -38.4 15
2019-09-06 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1043 1024 49.3% 26.7% 24.0% -18.6 21
2019-09-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1024 1043 24.0% 26.7% 49.3% +18.6 30
2019-09-08 Afturelding L 0-5 1185 1007 64.9% 23.6% 11.5% -111.4 37
2019-09-08 @ Grotta W 5-0 1007 1185 11.5% 23.6% 64.9% +111.4 22
2019-09-08 Fjolnir L 1-7 1182 1243 38.8% 27.3% 33.9% -70.4 33
2019-09-08 @ Thor Akureyri W 7-1 1243 1182 33.9% 27.3% 38.8% +70.4 41
2019-09-08 IF Magni L 1-2 1151 921 68.8% 22.2% 9.0% -25.0 28
2019-09-08 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 921 1151 9.0% 22.2% 68.8% +25.0 19
2019-09-14 Grotta L 1-2 895 1073 23.7% 26.7% 49.6% -10.6 15
2019-09-14 @ Njardvik W 2-1 1073 895 49.6% 26.7% 23.7% +10.5 40
2019-09-14 Keflavik IF W 3-1 1005 1089 35.5% 27.3% 37.2% +25.8 22
2019-09-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1089 1005 37.2% 27.3% 35.5% -25.8 31
2019-09-14 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1313 1162 62.7% 24.3% 13.0% -4.6 42
2019-09-14 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1162 1313 13.0% 24.3% 62.7% +4.6 37
2019-09-14 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1043 1111 37.7% 27.3% 34.9% +41.3 33
2019-09-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1111 1043 34.9% 27.3% 37.7% -41.3 33
2019-09-14 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 946 1025 36.3% 27.3% 36.4% +25.4 22
2019-09-14 @ IF Magni L 1-3 1025 946 36.4% 27.3% 36.3% -25.4 21
2019-09-14 Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-1 1119 1126 46.1% 27.0% 26.9% -18.7 22
2019-09-14 @ Afturelding W 1-0 1126 1119 26.9% 27.0% 46.1% +18.7 31
2019-09-21 Afturelding D 0-0 999 1100 33.2% 27.3% 39.5% +0.6 22
2019-09-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1100 999 39.5% 27.3% 33.2% -0.6 23
2019-09-21 Fjolnir W 1-0 1063 1309 17.4% 25.7% 57.0% +22.5 34
2019-09-21 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1309 1063 57.0% 25.7% 17.4% -22.5 42
2019-09-21 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1167 1084 56.3% 25.8% 17.9% +8.3 40
2019-09-21 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1084 1167 17.9% 25.8% 56.3% -8.3 33
2019-09-21 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1084 1031 53.2% 26.3% 20.5% +35.5 43
2019-09-21 @ Grotta L 0-4 1031 1084 20.5% 26.3% 53.2% -35.5 22
2019-09-21 IF Magni D 0-0 1070 971 57.9% 25.5% 16.6% -4.2 34
2019-09-21 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 971 1070 16.6% 25.5% 57.9% +4.2 23
2019-09-21 Njardvik W 4-2 1144 885 70.9% 21.3% 7.9% +5.7 34
2019-09-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-4 885 1144 7.9% 21.3% 70.9% -5.7 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-09-08 9.02% IF Magni 921 2 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1151 1
2 2019-05-18 11.44% Grotta 999 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1177 2
3 2019-09-08 11.48% Afturelding 1007 5 @ Grotta 1185 0
4 2019-07-16 12.09% IF Magni 902 3 @ Keflavik IF 1068 0
5 2019-06-17 13.88% Keflavik IF 1071 1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1208 0
6 2019-05-31 15.30% Grotta 1006 2 @ Keflavik IF 1122 1
7 2019-06-22 15.33% Fram Reykjavik 1068 1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1184 0
8 2019-07-11 16.84% @ Njardvik 917 3 Vikingur Olafsvik 1169 0
9 2019-08-23 17.03% Keflavik IF 1026 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1120 1
10 2019-08-10 17.07% IF Magni 902 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 995 1
11 2019-09-21 17.36% @ Keflavik IF 1063 1 Fjolnir 1309 0
12 2019-05-05 18.03% Njardvik 1053 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1134 2
13 2019-07-21 18.37% Keflavik IF 1000 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1077 1
14 2019-06-13 19.51% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 975 2 @ Afturelding 1039 1
15 2019-06-13 19.97% Grotta 1029 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1088 2
16 2019-06-19 19.98% Fjolnir 1104 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1163 0
17 2019-06-27 21.22% Leiknir Reykjavik 1054 3 @ Keflavik IF 1100 1
18 2019-05-17 22.06% Njardvik 1043 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1080 1
19 2019-07-16 22.59% Grotta 1126 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1158 0
20 2019-09-06 23.97% Fram Reykjavik 1024 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1043 1
21 2019-06-24 25.65% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 979 5 @ Njardvik 983 1
22 2019-06-20 26.09% Afturelding 1019 2 @ Njardvik 1019 0
23 2019-08-31 26.38% @ Keflavik IF 1063 2 Thor Akureyri 1217 0
24 2019-09-14 26.94% Vikingur Olafsvik 1126 1 @ Afturelding 1119 0
25 2019-06-27 27.51% Grotta 1066 3 @ Afturelding 1055 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-08 111.42 Afturelding 5 1007 11.48% @ Grotta 0 1185 64.90% 23.61%
2 2019-09-08 70.37 Fjolnir 7 1243 33.94% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1182 38.76% 27.31%
3 2019-05-17 69.22 @ Keflavik IF 5 1052 35.80% Afturelding 0 1134 36.88% 27.32%
4 2019-07-16 68.36 IF Magni 3 902 12.09% @ Keflavik IF 0 1068 64.01% 23.90%
5 2019-07-11 62.20 @ Njardvik 3 917 16.84% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1169 57.64% 25.52%
6 2019-06-29 58.84 @ Fjolnir 4 1125 33.45% Thor Akureyri 0 1224 39.25% 27.30%
7 2019-06-24 57.06 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 979 25.65% @ Njardvik 1 983 47.44% 26.91%
8 2019-06-27 50.57 Grotta 3 1066 27.51% @ Afturelding 0 1055 45.44% 27.05%
9 2019-08-23 41.70 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 4 1110 28.67% Fjolnir 1 1245 44.21% 27.12%
10 2019-09-14 41.34 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1043 37.73% Thor Akureyri 0 1111 34.95% 27.32%
11 2019-07-20 41.25 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1059 37.82% @ IF Magni 0 970 34.86% 27.32%
12 2019-08-09 40.74 @ Afturelding 3 996 38.42% Fram Reykjavik 0 1059 34.27% 27.31%
13 2019-08-30 39.19 @ Fjolnir 6 1204 60.06% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1083 14.95% 24.99%
14 2019-09-05 38.43 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 4 966 50.87% Njardvik 0 934 22.56% 26.57%
15 2019-06-15 38.12 Thor Akureyri 3 1191 41.41% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1076 31.34% 27.24%
16 2019-08-23 36.96 Keflavik IF 3 1026 17.03% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1120 57.41% 25.57%
17 2019-06-20 35.79 Afturelding 2 1019 26.09% @ Njardvik 0 1019 46.97% 26.94%
18 2019-08-31 35.59 @ Keflavik IF 2 1063 26.38% Thor Akureyri 0 1217 46.65% 26.97%
19 2019-09-21 35.47 @ Grotta 4 1084 53.23% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1031 20.50% 26.27%
20 2019-06-07 34.40 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1100 45.55% Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1111 27.41% 27.04%
21 2019-05-31 34.34 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1077 28.22% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1215 44.69% 27.10%
22 2019-06-07 34.16 Thor Akureyri 3 1157 45.80% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1009 27.17% 27.03%
23 2019-06-27 34.06 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1054 21.22% @ Keflavik IF 1 1100 52.40% 26.39%
24 2019-07-06 31.75 @ Throttur Reykjavik 7 1128 66.56% IF Magni 0 929 10.40% 23.04%
25 2019-07-20 30.87 Fjolnir 5 1220 51.97% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 1021 21.59% 26.44%