2020 1. deild karla Season

119 games

Final

Promoted

Keflavik IF

43 pts

Leiknir Reykjavik · 42 pts

Relegated

IF Magni

12 pts

Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

9.10 points above expected

42 points · 32.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

6.03 points below expected

12 points · 18.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Keflavik IF Promoted 19 13 4 2 43 57 27 +30 34.84 +8.16
2 Leiknir Reykjavik Promoted 20 13 3 4 42 50 22 +28 37.05 +4.95
3 Fram Reykjavik 20 12 6 2 42 41 24 +17 32.90 +9.10
4 Grindavik 19 8 8 3 32 40 31 +9 29.41 +2.59
5 Thor Akureyri 20 9 4 7 31 37 35 +2 27.57 +3.43
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 20 7 9 4 30 33 27 +6 31.63 -1.63
7 IF Vestri 20 8 5 7 29 29 28 +1 25.14 +3.86
8 Afturelding 20 7 4 9 25 37 33 +4 29.49 -4.49
9 Vikingur Olafsvik 20 5 4 11 19 26 44 -18 24.40 -5.40
10 Throttur Reykjavik 20 3 3 14 12 15 39 -24 18.03 -6.03
11 IF Magni Relegated 20 3 3 14 12 22 47 -25 15.37 -3.37
12 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur Relegated 20 3 3 14 12 19 49 -30 18.02 -6.02

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Leiknir Reykjavik 1193 42 39.77 +2.23 68.5% 14 30 36 40 44 49 61
Keflavik IF 1174 43 38.92 +4.08 79.0% 19 29 35 39 43 48 61
Fram Reykjavik 1125 42 35.62 +6.38 88.1% 12 26 32 36 40 45 56
Grindavik 1083 32 33.49 -1.49 44.1% 12 24 30 33 37 43 57
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1033 30 34.35 -4.35 25.9% 13 25 30 34 38 44 61
Afturelding 1032 25 32.21 -7.21 12.9% 11 23 28 32 36 42 55
IF Vestri 1019 29 27.86 +1.14 62.0% 9 19 24 28 32 37 53
Thor Akureyri 1000 31 30.29 +0.71 59.0% 11 21 26 30 34 40 51
Vikingur Olafsvik 924 19 27.12 -8.12 9.2% 7 18 23 27 31 37 48
Throttur Reykjavik 842 12 20.75 -8.75 5.5% 4 12 17 21 24 30 44
IF Magni 833 12 18.09 -6.09 13.6% 2 10 15 18 21 27 39
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 809 12 20.74 -8.74 5.7% 3 12 17 21 24 30 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AFT FR GRI IV IM IV KI LF LR TA TR VO
Afturelding
0-0-2
2.28
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
2.44
1-0-1
3.67
0-1-0
1.70
0-1-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.54
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
3.02
1-0-0
1.88
2-0-0
3.28
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-0
1.31
2-0-0
3.93
1-1-0
3.57
0-1-0
1.22
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.44
2-0-0
3.08
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.47
Grindavik
0-1-1
2.87
1-1-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.50
1-1-0
4.22
2-0-0
3.19
0-1-0
1.20
0-0-1
1.88
0-1-0
0.99
1-0-1
2.91
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.57
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-0
1.39
0-2-0
2.91
1-1-0
3.83
0-1-1
3.25
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-0
2.07
1-0-1
2.38
0-2-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
3.30
IF Magni
1-0-1
1.78
0-0-2
1.55
0-1-1
1.29
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-1
0.80
0-0-1
0.51
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
1.10
0-0-2
1.56
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.82
IF Vestri
0-1-0
1.01
0-1-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-0
1.93
0-0-2
1.82
2-0-0
3.47
1-1-0
1.74
2-0-0
2.21
1-0-1
3.45
0-1-1
2.64
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
3.06
0-1-0
1.48
0-1-0
1.51
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-0
2.27
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
4.40
0-0-2
2.97
2-0-0
3.36
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.22
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur
0-0-2
1.90
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-0
0.85
0-1-0
0.68
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.96
0-1-1
1.15
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.22
Leiknir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-0
1.72
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
4.45
0-1-1
3.70
2-0-0
2.44
2-0-0
4.64
0-1-0
1.88
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
3.95
Thor Akureyri
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
2.50
0-2-0
2.30
2-0-0
3.90
0-0-2
3.21
0-0-2
2.07
2-0-0
3.31
0-1-0
0.84
2-0-0
3.46
1-0-0
1.53
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-1
0.85
0-1-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
3.02
1-0-1
1.98
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
1.59
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-0
0.95
Vikingur Olafsvik
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
1.86
0-1-1
2.13
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.22
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-1
1.18
0-0-1
1.76

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.87 +8.7
Allowed 0.82 -11.7
Differential 0.95 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.20%6.30%3.36%3.78%1.26%1.26%20.17%
16.30%10.08%7.98%4.62%1.26%2.10%32.35%
23.36%7.98%4.20%3.36%1.68%0.42%21.01%
33.78%4.62%3.36%3.36%0.84%15.97%
41.26%1.26%1.68%0.84%1.68%6.72%
5+1.26%2.10%0.42%3.78%
Total20.17%32.35%21.01%15.97%6.72%3.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.42 2.10
CV 0.83 0.83
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 119

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
25.00%10.00%15.00%30.00%
310.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total20.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 1.65 +0.20
SD 1.66 1.31 2.38
CV 0.90 0.79
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
115.00%20.00%5.00%40.00%
25.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
310.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total30.00%45.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.20 +0.85
SD 1.28 1.32 1.63
CV 0.62 1.10
Max 6 5 +5
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
110.53%21.05%5.26%36.84%
210.53%10.53%5.26%26.32%
35.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%5.26%26.32%
45.26%5.26%10.53%
5+
Total15.79%36.84%26.32%10.53%10.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.63 +0.47
SD 1.05 1.21 1.07
CV 0.50 0.74
Max 4 4 +3
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%20.00%15.00%40.00%
210.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
310.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+
Total35.00%25.00%15.00%20.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.35 +0.30
SD 1.23 1.31 1.56
CV 0.74 0.97
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%35.00%
15.00%5.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%40.00%
25.00%5.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
4
5+
Total10.00%15.00%35.00%25.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 2.35 -1.25
SD 1.12 1.57 1.92
CV 1.02 0.67
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
120.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%50.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
35.00%10.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+
Total35.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.40 +0.05
SD 1.10 1.31 1.50
CV 0.76 0.94
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
110.53%5.26%5.26%21.05%
210.53%5.26%15.79%
321.05%21.05%
410.53%10.53%5.26%5.26%31.58%
5+10.53%10.53%
Total10.53%63.16%15.79%5.26%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.42 +1.58
SD 1.45 1.22 2.14
CV 0.48 0.86
Max 6 5 +5
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%40.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%35.00%
25.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
3
45.00%5.00%
5+
Total20.00%10.00%15.00%35.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.45 -1.50
SD 1.05 1.82 2.06
CV 1.11 0.74
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%15.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%25.00%
35.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
4
5+10.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
Total30.00%45.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.10 +1.40
SD 1.88 1.07 2.21
CV 0.75 0.97
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
310.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total20.00%30.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 1.75 +0.10
SD 1.39 1.52 2.15
CV 0.75 0.87
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%25.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%55.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
215.00%5.00%10.00%30.00%
3
4
5+
Total5.00%45.00%15.00%20.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.95 -1.20
SD 0.91 1.23 1.44
CV 1.21 0.63
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
110.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%35.00%
25.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+
Total10.00%25.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 2.20 -0.90
SD 1.22 1.54 2.22
CV 0.94 0.70
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 42 32.90 +9.10
2 Keflavik IF 43 34.84 +8.16
3 Leiknir Reykjavik 42 37.05 +4.95
4 IF Vestri 29 25.14 +3.86
5 Thor Akureyri 31 27.57 +3.43

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 12 18.03 -6.03
2 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 12 18.02 -6.02
3 Vikingur Olafsvik 19 24.40 -5.40
4 Afturelding 25 29.49 -4.49
5 IF Magni 12 15.37 -3.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 20 – Jul 7 1 in 51
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 20 – Jul 7 1 in 28
3 IF Magni 2 Aug 29 – Sep 2 1 in 27
4 IF Vestri 3 Jul 8 – Jul 18 1 in 22
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 Jul 11 – Jul 27 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Magni 7 Jun 20 – Jul 22 1 in 156
2 Throttur Reykjavik 6 Jun 19 – Jul 17 1 in 105
3 Leiknir Reykjavik 2 Aug 19 – Aug 23 1 in 46
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 3 Jun 28 – Jul 7 1 in 20
5 Afturelding 3 Jun 19 – Jul 3 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 12 Jun 20 – Aug 29 1 in 47
2 Fram Reykjavik 11 Jul 17 – Sep 17 1 in 38
3 Grindavik 9 Aug 19 – Sep 29 1 in 25
4 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 Aug 23 – Sep 12 1 in 21
5 IF Magni 3 Aug 22 – Sep 2 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 7 Aug 22 – Sep 21 1 in 91
2 Afturelding 7 Jul 21 – Sep 2 1 in 30
3 Grindavik 6 Jul 8 – Aug 15 1 in 26
4 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 Aug 15 – Aug 23 1 in 13
5 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 11 Aug 19 – Oct 3 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Keflavik IF29.42%23.29%15.83%11.61%8.23%5.32%3.25%1.78%0.93%0.26%0.08%
Leiknir Reykjavik35.21%23.45%15.34%9.88%6.69%4.40%2.73%1.29%0.64%0.29%0.07%0.01%
Fram Reykjavik12.65%16.05%16.45%15.41%12.68%9.84%7.14%5.12%2.88%1.18%0.43%0.17%
Grindavik6.51%9.70%12.92%14.45%14.95%13.71%10.91%8.20%5.07%2.28%1.05%0.25%
Thor Akureyri2.13%4.24%7.09%9.72%11.68%14.08%15.35%14.12%10.99%6.29%3.28%1.03%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar7.90%11.89%14.84%14.68%14.34%12.18%9.80%7.06%4.55%1.94%0.59%0.23%
IF Vestri0.79%2.17%3.60%5.79%8.45%11.58%14.92%17.34%16.13%10.46%6.36%2.41%
Afturelding4.54%7.36%10.11%12.80%13.65%14.12%13.03%10.56%7.63%3.88%1.65%0.67%
Vikingur Olafsvik0.80%1.62%3.22%4.46%6.80%9.93%12.92%16.68%18.50%13.46%7.87%3.74%
Throttur Reykjavik0.03%0.12%0.31%0.61%0.94%2.30%4.20%6.99%12.35%22.74%25.71%23.70%
IF Magni0.02%0.04%0.13%0.46%0.71%1.69%3.59%7.46%16.19%26.47%43.24%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur0.02%0.09%0.25%0.46%1.13%1.83%4.06%7.27%12.87%21.03%26.44%24.55%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.52%
No Edge
39.50%23.53%36.97%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 8.76 Elo pts.
129 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
Keflavik IF, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.29 * Some Luck: 4.29 to 6.44 * Lucky: 6.44 to 8.58 * Wild Swing: 8.58 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.24 * Off: 2.24 to 2.99 * Way Off: 2.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.79 * A Surprise: 0.79 to 1.27 * Several Surprises: 1.27 to 1.74 * Many Surprises: 1.74 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.87 points
Some Luck
05.3613
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.874
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.03%
Keflavik IF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
8.77%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.74
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
75%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
90%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.22
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.55
Very Underconfident
0.2786011.001.7214
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.105
Well Within Noise
00.1600.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Leiknir Reykjavik 58.66% 41.26% 0.08%
Keflavik IF 52.71% 47.21% 0.08%
Fram Reykjavik 28.70% 70.70% 0.60%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19.79% 79.39% 0.82%
Grindavik 16.21% 82.49% 1.30%
Afturelding 11.90% 85.78% 2.32%
Thor Akureyri 6.37% 89.32% 4.31%
IF Vestri 2.96% 88.27% 8.77%
Vikingur Olafsvik 2.42% 85.97% 11.61%
Throttur Reykjavik 0.15% 50.44% 49.41%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0.11% 48.90% 50.99%
IF Magni 0.02% 30.27% 69.71%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-06-19 Afturelding W 5-1 1013 1020 34.1% 29.7% 36.2% +33.6 3
2020-06-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-5 1020 1013 36.2% 29.7% 34.1% -33.6 0
2020-06-19 Grindavik W 2-1 1002 1034 30.7% 29.6% 39.7% +11.4 3
2020-06-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1034 1002 39.7% 29.6% 30.7% -11.4 0
2020-06-19 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 966 1062 23.2% 28.7% 48.1% -13.2 0
2020-06-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1062 966 48.1% 28.7% 23.2% +13.2 3
2020-06-20 IF Magni W 2-0 1007 953 42.8% 29.4% 27.9% +17.6 3
2020-06-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 953 1007 27.9% 29.4% 42.8% -17.6 0
2020-06-20 IF Vestri W 2-0 1048 983 44.2% 29.2% 26.6% +17.0 3
2020-06-20 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-2 983 1048 26.6% 29.2% 44.2% -16.9 0
2020-06-20 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-0 1007 971 40.2% 29.6% 30.2% +27.1 3
2020-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 971 1007 30.2% 29.6% 40.2% -27.1 0
2020-06-28 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 935 1035 22.9% 28.6% 48.5% -7.5 0
2020-06-28 @ IF Magni W 2-1 1035 935 48.5% 28.6% 22.9% +7.5 6
2020-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 987 1025 29.9% 29.6% 40.5% -9.3 0
2020-06-28 @ Afturelding W 2-1 1025 987 40.5% 29.6% 29.9% +9.3 6
2020-06-28 IF Vestri D 0-0 1075 966 49.7% 28.4% 21.9% -1.9 4
2020-06-28 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 966 1075 21.9% 28.4% 49.7% +1.9 1
2020-06-28 Keflavik IF L 0-4 1065 1046 37.8% 29.7% 32.5% -41.6 3
2020-06-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-0 1046 1065 32.5% 29.7% 37.8% +41.6 6
2020-06-28 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 944 1013 26.2% 29.2% 44.6% -7.9 0
2020-06-28 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-2 1013 944 44.6% 29.2% 26.2% +7.9 6
2020-06-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1023 953 44.8% 29.2% 26.0% +8.8 3
2020-06-28 @ Grindavik L 0-1 953 1023 26.0% 29.2% 44.8% -8.8 0
2020-07-02 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 944 1021 25.2% 29.1% 45.7% -16.3 0
2020-07-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1021 944 45.7% 29.1% 25.2% +16.3 9
2020-07-03 Afturelding W 1-0 1042 977 44.1% 29.3% 26.7% +9.0 9
2020-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 977 1042 26.7% 29.3% 44.1% -9.0 0
2020-07-03 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-2 928 936 33.9% 29.7% 36.4% -20.3 0
2020-07-03 @ IF Magni W 2-0 936 928 36.4% 29.7% 33.9% +20.3 3
2020-07-03 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1088 1073 37.3% 29.7% 33.0% -10.8 6
2020-07-03 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1073 1088 33.0% 29.7% 37.3% +10.9 7
2020-07-03 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-0 1034 1023 36.7% 29.7% 33.6% +20.2 9
2020-07-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1023 1034 33.6% 29.7% 36.7% -20.2 3
2020-07-04 Grindavik L 2-3 968 1032 26.7% 29.3% 44.0% -8.1 1
2020-07-04 @ IF Vestri W 3-2 1032 968 44.0% 29.3% 26.7% +8.1 6
2020-07-07 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1003 1051 28.7% 29.5% 41.8% -9.0 3
2020-07-07 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 1051 1003 41.8% 29.5% 28.7% +9.0 12
2020-07-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-4 1084 1054 39.3% 29.6% 31.1% -17.5 7
2020-07-07 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-2 1054 1084 31.1% 29.6% 39.3% +17.5 12
2020-07-07 IF Magni W 7-0 968 907 43.6% 29.3% 27.1% +55.3 3
2020-07-07 @ Afturelding L 0-7 907 968 27.1% 29.3% 43.6% -55.3 0
2020-07-08 IF Vestri L 0-1 1038 960 45.8% 29.0% 25.1% -13.5 9
2020-07-08 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 960 1038 25.1% 29.0% 45.8% +13.5 4
2020-07-08 Keflavik IF D 4-4 1040 1077 30.0% 29.6% 40.4% +0.3 7
2020-07-08 @ Grindavik D 4-4 1077 1040 40.4% 29.6% 30.0% -0.3 7
2020-07-08 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 957 928 39.2% 29.6% 31.1% +10.1 6
2020-07-08 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-1 928 957 31.1% 29.6% 39.2% -10.1 0
2020-07-11 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-5 1060 1066 34.2% 29.7% 36.0% -21.7 12
2020-07-11 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-2 1066 1060 36.0% 29.7% 34.2% +21.7 10
2020-07-11 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-2 852 994 18.9% 27.6% 53.5% -6.4 0
2020-07-11 @ IF Magni W 2-1 994 852 53.5% 27.6% 18.9% +6.4 6
2020-07-12 Grindavik D 1-1 1072 1040 39.6% 29.6% 30.8% -0.5 13
2020-07-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1040 1072 30.8% 29.6% 39.6% +0.5 8
2020-07-12 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-0 1024 967 43.0% 29.4% 27.6% +33.1 6
2020-07-12 @ Afturelding L 0-4 967 1024 27.6% 29.4% 43.0% -33.1 6
2020-07-12 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1077 1024 42.5% 29.4% 28.1% +8.9 10
2020-07-12 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1024 1077 28.1% 29.4% 42.5% -8.8 9
2020-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 973 918 42.9% 29.4% 27.8% +9.3 7
2020-07-12 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 918 973 27.8% 29.4% 42.9% -9.3 0
2020-07-17 Afturelding L 1-3 1001 1057 27.7% 29.4% 43.0% -15.1 6
2020-07-17 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1057 1001 43.0% 29.4% 27.7% +15.1 9
2020-07-17 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1041 1038 35.4% 29.7% 34.8% -0.0 9
2020-07-17 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1038 1041 34.8% 29.7% 35.4% +0.0 13
2020-07-17 Keflavik IF L 0-4 908 1086 16.2% 26.4% 57.4% -20.9 0
2020-07-17 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-0 1086 908 57.4% 26.4% 16.2% +20.9 13
2020-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1015 1071 27.7% 29.4% 43.0% +0.9 10
2020-07-18 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1071 1015 43.0% 29.4% 27.7% -0.9 14
2020-07-18 IF Magni W 2-1 1088 846 63.8% 24.0% 12.2% +4.1 13
2020-07-18 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 846 1088 12.2% 24.0% 63.8% -4.1 0
2020-07-18 IF Vestri L 0-1 934 982 28.6% 29.5% 41.9% -9.5 6
2020-07-18 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 982 934 41.9% 29.5% 28.6% +9.5 10
2020-07-21 Afturelding D 2-2 1041 1072 30.8% 29.6% 39.6% +0.4 10
2020-07-21 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1072 1041 39.6% 29.6% 30.8% -0.4 10
2020-07-21 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 887 1038 18.2% 27.3% 54.5% +1.7 1
2020-07-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1038 887 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% -1.7 14
2020-07-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-3 992 1070 25.1% 29.0% 45.9% +0.8 11
2020-07-22 @ IF Vestri D 3-3 1070 992 45.9% 29.0% 25.1% -0.8 15
2020-07-22 IF Magni W 3-0 1016 842 57.1% 26.5% 16.4% +16.2 13
2020-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 842 1016 16.4% 26.5% 57.1% -16.2 0
2020-07-22 Keflavik IF D 1-1 924 1107 15.8% 26.3% 57.9% +2.7 7
2020-07-22 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 1-1 1107 924 57.9% 26.3% 15.8% -2.7 14
2020-07-22 Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-0 1092 985 49.4% 28.5% 22.1% +34.2 16
2020-07-22 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-5 985 1092 22.1% 28.5% 49.4% -34.2 6
2020-07-26 Grindavik D 3-3 825 1041 13.7% 25.0% 61.3% +2.0 1
2020-07-26 @ IF Magni D 3-3 1041 825 61.3% 25.0% 13.7% -2.0 11
2020-07-26 IF Vestri W 4-1 1104 993 49.9% 28.4% 21.7% +17.6 17
2020-07-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-4 993 1104 21.7% 28.4% 49.9% -17.6 11
2020-07-26 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-0 951 927 38.6% 29.7% 31.8% +28.1 9
2020-07-26 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-3 927 951 31.8% 29.7% 38.6% -28.1 7
2020-07-26 Thor Akureyri W 6-1 1037 1032 35.8% 29.7% 34.5% +39.8 17
2020-07-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-6 1032 1037 34.5% 29.7% 35.8% -39.8 13
2020-07-27 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1072 1126 27.8% 29.4% 42.8% -8.3 10
2020-07-27 @ Afturelding W 3-2 1126 1072 42.8% 29.4% 27.8% +8.3 19
2020-07-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1070 889 57.7% 26.3% 16.0% +15.8 18
2020-07-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 889 1070 16.0% 26.3% 57.7% -15.8 1
2020-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 4-4 1077 1085 33.9% 29.7% 36.4% +0.1 18
2020-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 4-4 1085 1077 36.4% 29.7% 33.9% -0.1 19
2020-08-15 Grindavik W 4-3 899 1039 19.1% 27.6% 53.3% +13.3 10
2020-08-15 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 3-4 1039 899 53.3% 27.6% 19.1% -13.3 11
2020-08-15 IF Vestri D 0-0 1063 975 47.1% 28.9% 24.0% -1.6 11
2020-08-15 @ Afturelding D 0-0 975 1063 24.0% 28.9% 47.1% +1.6 12
2020-08-15 Keflavik IF L 1-4 827 1121 9.8% 21.8% 68.4% -7.9 1
2020-08-15 @ IF Magni W 4-1 1121 827 68.4% 21.8% 9.8% +7.9 20
2020-08-15 Thor Akureyri D 3-3 1135 993 53.5% 27.6% 18.9% -1.4 20
2020-08-15 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 3-3 993 1135 18.9% 27.6% 53.5% +1.4 14
2020-08-15 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 979 873 49.3% 28.5% 22.2% -13.5 9
2020-08-15 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-1 873 979 22.2% 28.5% 49.3% +13.5 4
2020-08-19 Afturelding W 1-0 1085 1062 38.5% 29.7% 31.8% +10.3 22
2020-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1062 1085 31.8% 29.7% 38.5% -10.3 11
2020-08-19 Grindavik L 2-4 887 1026 19.2% 27.7% 53.2% -10.0 4
2020-08-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-2 1026 887 53.2% 27.7% 19.2% +10.0 14
2020-08-19 IF Magni W 3-0 1077 819 65.2% 23.3% 11.5% +11.2 21
2020-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 819 1077 11.5% 23.3% 65.2% -11.2 1
2020-08-19 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 5-1 994 912 46.3% 29.0% 24.7% +25.3 17
2020-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-5 912 994 24.7% 29.0% 46.3% -25.3 10
2020-08-19 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 977 1133 17.7% 27.1% 55.2% +15.7 15
2020-08-19 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1133 977 55.2% 27.1% 17.7% -15.7 20
2020-08-19 Vikingur Olafsvik W 6-1 1129 966 55.9% 26.9% 17.2% +22.6 23
2020-08-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-6 966 1129 17.2% 26.9% 55.9% -22.6 9
2020-08-22 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 887 1088 14.6% 25.6% 59.8% -4.7 10
2020-08-22 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-2 1088 887 59.8% 25.6% 14.6% +4.7 24
2020-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 808 1096 10.1% 22.0% 67.9% +4.3 2
2020-08-22 @ IF Magni D 0-0 1096 808 67.9% 22.0% 10.1% -4.3 23
2020-08-22 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1051 1152 22.7% 28.6% 48.6% +1.2 12
2020-08-22 @ Afturelding D 2-2 1152 1051 48.6% 28.6% 22.7% -1.2 24
2020-08-22 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1036 1019 37.5% 29.7% 32.8% +10.5 17
2020-08-22 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1019 1036 32.8% 29.7% 37.5% -10.5 17
2020-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1118 877 63.7% 24.0% 12.3% -16.6 20
2020-08-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 877 1118 12.3% 24.0% 63.7% +16.7 7
2020-08-23 Vikingur Olafsvik D 3-3 992 943 42.0% 29.5% 28.5% -0.5 16
2020-08-23 @ IF Vestri D 3-3 943 992 28.5% 29.5% 42.0% +0.5 10
2020-08-28 Keflavik IF W 5-1 1101 1151 28.4% 29.4% 42.1% +37.6 23
2020-08-28 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-5 1151 1101 42.1% 29.4% 28.4% -37.6 24
2020-08-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1053 1093 29.7% 29.5% 40.8% -9.2 12
2020-08-29 @ Afturelding W 2-1 1093 1053 40.8% 29.5% 29.7% +9.2 27
2020-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 944 1091 18.5% 27.4% 54.1% +2.3 11
2020-08-29 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1091 944 54.1% 27.4% 18.5% -2.3 24
2020-08-29 IF Magni L 1-3 882 812 44.7% 29.2% 26.1% -21.6 10
2020-08-29 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-1 812 882 26.1% 29.2% 44.7% +21.6 5
2020-08-29 IF Vestri W 2-1 1046 992 42.7% 29.4% 27.9% +8.8 20
2020-08-29 @ Grindavik L 1-2 992 1046 27.9% 29.4% 42.7% -8.8 16
2020-08-29 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1009 893 50.4% 28.3% 21.3% +20.5 20
2020-08-29 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 893 1009 21.3% 28.3% 50.4% -20.6 7
2020-09-02 Afturelding W 3-2 834 1043 14.1% 25.3% 60.6% +15.2 8
2020-09-02 @ IF Magni L 2-3 1043 834 60.6% 25.3% 14.1% -15.2 12
2020-09-02 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 0-0 873 860 36.9% 29.7% 33.4% -0.2 8
2020-09-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 860 873 33.4% 29.7% 36.9% +0.2 11
2020-09-02 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1089 1139 28.5% 29.4% 42.1% -17.9 24
2020-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1139 1089 42.1% 29.4% 28.5% +17.9 26
2020-09-02 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 983 1029 28.9% 29.5% 41.6% +28.9 19
2020-09-02 @ IF Vestri L 1-4 1029 983 41.6% 29.5% 28.9% -28.9 20
2020-09-02 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-1 1102 946 55.0% 27.2% 17.8% -2.4 28
2020-09-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 946 1102 17.8% 27.2% 55.0% +2.4 12
2020-09-06 Afturelding L 1-3 861 1028 16.9% 26.8% 56.3% -10.0 11
2020-09-06 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-1 1028 861 56.3% 26.8% 16.9% +10.0 15
2020-09-06 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1156 1099 43.1% 29.4% 27.6% -12.8 26
2020-09-06 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1099 1156 27.6% 29.4% 43.1% +12.8 31
2020-09-06 IF Magni W 3-2 948 849 48.5% 28.6% 22.9% +7.1 15
2020-09-06 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-3 849 948 22.9% 28.6% 48.5% -7.1 8
2020-09-06 IF Vestri W 2-1 873 1012 19.1% 27.6% 53.2% +14.4 11
2020-09-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1012 873 53.2% 27.6% 19.1% -14.4 19
2020-09-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1055 1071 32.9% 29.7% 37.5% +0.3 21
2020-09-07 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1071 1055 37.5% 29.7% 32.9% -0.3 25
2020-09-07 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1000 1113 21.5% 28.3% 50.1% -12.4 20
2020-09-07 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1113 1000 50.1% 28.3% 21.5% +12.4 27
2020-09-12 Grindavik D 2-2 956 1055 22.8% 28.6% 48.5% +1.2 16
2020-09-12 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-2 1055 956 48.5% 28.6% 22.8% -1.2 22
2020-09-12 IF Vestri D 1-1 1112 998 50.3% 28.3% 21.4% -1.8 32
2020-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 998 1112 21.4% 28.3% 50.3% +1.8 20
2020-09-12 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1071 1126 27.9% 29.4% 42.7% -15.2 25
2020-09-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1126 1071 42.7% 29.4% 27.9% +15.2 30
2020-09-12 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-1 1144 851 68.3% 21.8% 9.9% +3.2 29
2020-09-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 851 1144 9.9% 21.8% 68.3% -3.2 11
2020-09-12 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1038 988 42.1% 29.4% 28.4% -11.3 15
2020-09-12 @ Afturelding W 3-2 988 1038 28.4% 29.4% 42.1% +11.3 23
2020-09-12 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 842 887 29.1% 29.5% 41.4% +0.7 9
2020-09-12 @ IF Magni D 1-1 887 842 41.4% 29.5% 29.1% -0.7 12
2020-09-15 IF Magni W 2-1 999 843 55.1% 27.1% 17.7% +6.0 23
2020-09-15 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 843 999 17.7% 27.1% 55.1% -6.0 9
2020-09-15 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 0-0 1056 848 60.5% 25.3% 14.2% -3.4 26
2020-09-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 848 1056 14.2% 25.3% 60.5% +3.4 12
2020-09-16 Afturelding L 1-2 886 1027 19.0% 27.6% 53.3% -6.4 12
2020-09-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1027 886 53.3% 27.6% 19.0% +6.4 18
2020-09-16 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 999 957 41.1% 29.5% 29.4% +9.7 26
2020-09-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 957 999 29.4% 29.5% 41.1% -9.7 16
2020-09-17 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1141 1110 39.4% 29.6% 30.9% -0.5 31
2020-09-17 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1110 1141 30.9% 29.6% 39.4% +0.5 33
2020-09-17 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1054 1147 23.5% 28.8% 47.7% +1.5 23
2020-09-17 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1147 1054 47.7% 28.8% 23.5% -1.5 30
2020-09-20 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-0 1005 851 54.9% 27.2% 17.9% +12.1 26
2020-09-20 @ IF Vestri L 0-2 851 1005 17.9% 27.2% 54.9% -12.1 12
2020-09-20 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 837 1145 9.2% 21.1% 69.6% -3.2 9
2020-09-20 @ IF Magni W 1-0 1145 837 69.6% 21.1% 9.2% +3.2 33
2020-09-21 Grindavik L 1-2 1111 1056 42.8% 29.4% 27.8% -12.0 33
2020-09-21 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1056 1111 27.8% 29.4% 42.8% +12.0 26
2020-09-21 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1052 1009 41.2% 29.5% 29.3% -0.5 27
2020-09-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1009 1052 29.3% 29.5% 41.2% +0.5 27
2020-09-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-2 1140 880 65.5% 23.2% 11.3% +5.9 34
2020-09-21 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 880 1140 11.3% 23.2% 65.5% -5.9 12
2020-09-21 Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-0 1033 947 46.8% 28.9% 24.2% +8.4 21
2020-09-21 @ Afturelding L 0-1 947 1033 24.2% 28.9% 46.8% -8.4 16
2020-09-25 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1017 1146 20.1% 27.9% 52.0% -11.6 26
2020-09-25 @ IF Vestri W 3-1 1146 1017 52.0% 27.9% 20.1% +11.6 37
2020-09-26 Afturelding W 3-0 1149 1042 49.4% 28.5% 22.1% +21.2 36
2020-09-26 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1042 1149 22.1% 28.5% 49.4% -21.2 21
2020-09-26 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1010 1099 23.9% 28.8% 47.2% -15.6 27
2020-09-26 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1099 1010 47.2% 28.8% 23.9% +15.6 36
2020-09-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 874 1052 16.2% 26.4% 57.4% -16.0 12
2020-09-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1052 874 57.4% 26.4% 16.2% +16.0 30
2020-09-26 IF Magni W 3-1 1068 834 63.0% 24.3% 12.7% +7.4 29
2020-09-26 @ Grindavik L 1-3 834 1068 12.7% 24.3% 63.0% -7.4 9
2020-09-26 Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-4 839 939 22.8% 28.6% 48.6% -11.6 12
2020-09-26 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-2 939 839 48.6% 28.6% 22.8% +11.6 19
2020-09-29 Afturelding D 1-1 994 1020 31.5% 29.6% 38.9% +0.4 28
2020-09-29 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1020 994 38.9% 29.6% 31.5% -0.4 22
2020-09-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1006 1114 21.9% 28.4% 49.6% -7.3 26
2020-09-29 @ IF Vestri W 2-1 1114 1006 49.6% 28.4% 21.9% +7.3 39
2020-09-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1158 1068 47.3% 28.8% 23.8% +13.5 40
2020-09-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1068 1158 23.8% 28.8% 47.3% -13.5 30
2020-09-29 IF Magni L 0-1 858 826 39.6% 29.6% 30.8% -12.1 12
2020-09-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 826 858 30.8% 29.6% 39.6% +12.0 12
2020-09-29 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-7 827 1170 8.0% 19.6% 72.4% -16.3 12
2020-09-29 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 7-0 1170 827 72.4% 19.6% 8.0% +16.3 39
2020-09-29 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-0 1075 950 51.5% 28.0% 20.4% +19.8 32
2020-09-29 @ Grindavik L 0-3 950 1075 20.4% 28.0% 51.5% -19.8 19
2020-10-03 Grindavik W 3-2 1020 1095 25.5% 29.1% 45.4% +12.0 25
2020-10-03 @ Afturelding L 2-3 1095 1020 45.4% 29.1% 25.5% -12.0 32
2020-10-03 IF Vestri L 1-3 1054 999 42.9% 29.4% 27.7% -20.9 30
2020-10-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 999 1054 27.7% 29.4% 42.9% +20.9 29
2020-10-03 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-1 1171 811 73.8% 18.8% 7.4% +2.3 43
2020-10-03 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 811 1171 7.4% 18.8% 73.8% -2.3 12
2020-10-03 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 930 1186 11.6% 23.4% 65.0% -6.7 19
2020-10-03 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-1 1186 930 65.0% 23.4% 11.6% +6.7 42
2020-10-03 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1122 846 66.8% 22.6% 10.6% +3.8 42
2020-10-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 846 1122 10.6% 22.6% 66.8% -3.7 12
2020-10-04 Thor Akureyri L 3-4 838 994 17.8% 27.1% 55.1% -5.6 12
2020-10-04 @ IF Magni W 4-3 994 838 55.1% 27.1% 17.8% +5.6 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-08-23 12.31% Throttur Reykjavik 877 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1118 1
2 2020-09-02 14.09% @ IF Magni 834 3 Afturelding 1043 2
3 2020-08-19 17.73% @ IF Vestri 977 1 Leiknir Reykjavik 1133 0
4 2020-08-15 19.07% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 899 4 Grindavik 1039 3
5 2020-09-06 19.15% @ Throttur Reykjavik 873 2 IF Vestri 1012 1
6 2020-08-15 22.19% Throttur Reykjavik 873 2 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 979 1
7 2020-07-08 25.15% IF Vestri 960 1 @ Thor Akureyri 1038 0
8 2020-10-03 25.49% @ Afturelding 1020 3 Grindavik 1095 2
9 2020-08-29 26.09% IF Magni 812 3 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 882 1
10 2020-09-06 27.56% Fram Reykjavik 1099 1 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1156 0
11 2020-10-03 27.73% IF Vestri 999 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1054 1
12 2020-09-21 27.78% Grindavik 1056 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1111 1
13 2020-09-12 28.42% Thor Akureyri 988 3 @ Afturelding 1038 2
14 2020-08-28 28.45% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1101 5 Keflavik IF 1151 1
15 2020-09-02 28.90% @ IF Vestri 983 4 Thor Akureyri 1029 1
16 2020-06-19 30.70% @ Thor Akureyri 1002 2 Grindavik 1034 1
17 2020-09-29 30.76% IF Magni 826 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 858 0
18 2020-07-07 31.06% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1054 4 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1084 2
19 2020-06-28 32.53% Keflavik IF 1046 4 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1065 0
20 2020-07-03 33.02% Leiknir Reykjavik 1073 2 @ Keflavik IF 1088 1
21 2020-06-19 34.06% @ Keflavik IF 1013 5 Afturelding 1020 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-07-07 55.28 @ Afturelding 7 968 43.61% IF Magni 0 907 27.08% 29.31%
2 2020-06-28 41.61 Keflavik IF 4 1046 32.53% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1065 37.78% 29.69%
3 2020-07-26 39.81 @ Fram Reykjavik 6 1037 35.76% Thor Akureyri 1 1032 34.51% 29.73%
4 2020-08-28 37.61 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1101 28.45% Keflavik IF 1 1151 42.10% 29.45%
5 2020-07-22 34.18 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1092 49.40% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 985 22.13% 28.48%
6 2020-06-19 33.63 @ Keflavik IF 5 1013 34.06% Afturelding 1 1020 36.22% 29.72%
7 2020-07-12 33.09 @ Afturelding 4 1024 43.05% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 967 27.59% 29.36%
8 2020-09-02 28.87 @ IF Vestri 4 983 28.90% Thor Akureyri 1 1029 41.61% 29.49%
9 2020-07-26 28.12 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 3 951 38.59% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 927 31.75% 29.66%
10 2020-06-20 27.11 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1007 40.23% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 971 30.19% 29.58%
11 2020-08-19 25.32 @ Thor Akureyri 5 994 46.29% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1 912 24.73% 28.98%
12 2020-08-19 22.63 @ Keflavik IF 6 1129 55.89% Vikingur Olafsvik 1 966 17.21% 26.90%
13 2020-07-11 21.68 Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1066 36.04% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1060 34.24% 29.72%
14 2020-08-29 21.60 IF Magni 3 812 26.09% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1 882 44.73% 29.19%
15 2020-09-26 21.21 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1149 49.43% Afturelding 0 1042 22.10% 28.47%
16 2020-07-17 20.92 Keflavik IF 4 1086 57.38% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 908 16.19% 26.44%
17 2020-10-03 20.90 IF Vestri 3 999 27.73% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1054 42.89% 29.38%
18 2020-08-29 20.56 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1009 50.42% Throttur Reykjavik 0 893 21.30% 28.27%
19 2020-07-03 20.29 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 2 936 36.39% @ IF Magni 0 928 33.89% 29.72%
20 2020-07-03 20.17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1034 36.69% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1023 33.59% 29.71%
21 2020-09-29 19.83 @ Grindavik 3 1075 51.53% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 950 20.43% 28.04%
22 2020-09-02 17.88 Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1139 42.06% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1089 28.49% 29.45%
23 2020-07-26 17.60 @ Keflavik IF 4 1104 49.93% IF Vestri 1 993 21.70% 28.37%
24 2020-06-20 17.57 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1007 42.76% IF Magni 0 953 27.85% 29.39%
25 2020-07-07 17.49 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1054 31.06% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1084 39.31% 29.63%