2022 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Fylkir Reykjavik

51 pts

HK Kopavogur · 46 pts

Relegated

Throttur Vogum

6 pts

KV Vesturbaejar · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fylkir Reykjavik

16.74 points above expected

51 points · 34.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Vogum

20.88 points below expected

6 points · 26.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik Promoted 22 16 3 3 51 63 23 +40 34.26 +16.74
2 HK Kopavogur Promoted 22 15 1 6 46 46 30 +16 35.64 +10.36
3 Grotta 22 12 1 9 37 42 33 +9 35.78 +1.22
4 Fjolnir 22 11 3 8 36 51 37 +14 37.67 -1.67
5 Kordrengir 22 9 6 7 33 36 30 +6 33.87 -0.87
6 Grindavik 22 8 6 8 30 43 40 +3 27.94 +2.06
7 Thor Akureyri 22 9 3 10 30 31 35 -4 24.60 +5.40
8 Afturelding 22 8 5 9 29 39 39 0 23.25 +5.75
9 Selfoss 22 8 5 9 29 36 39 -3 28.51 +0.49
10 IF Vestri 22 7 7 8 28 36 44 -8 27.65 +0.35
11 KV Vesturbaejar Relegated 22 5 3 14 18 27 52 -25 26.08 -8.08
12 Throttur Vogum Relegated 22 1 3 18 6 8 56 -48 26.88 -20.88

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fylkir Reykjavik 1141 51 34.26 +16.74 99.8% 13 25 30 34 38 44 59
HK Kopavogur 1072 46 35.64 +10.36 96.7% 13 26 32 36 40 45 57
Fjolnir 1069 36 37.67 -1.67 42.0% 16 28 34 38 42 48 59
Kordrengir 1045 33 33.87 -0.87 47.9% 11 24 30 34 38 44 58
Grotta 1037 37 35.78 +1.22 61.0% 14 26 32 36 40 46 58
Grindavik 983 30 27.94 +2.06 66.6% 7 18 24 28 32 38 53
Thor Akureyri 961 30 24.60 +5.40 84.9% 6 15 21 24 28 34 48
IF Vestri 947 28 27.65 +0.35 55.9% 9 18 24 28 32 37 49
Selfoss 926 29 28.51 +0.49 56.7% 10 19 24 28 32 38 50
Afturelding 919 29 23.25 +5.75 86.4% 2 14 19 23 27 33 45
KV Vesturbaejar 884 18 26.08 -8.08 9.5% 7 17 22 26 30 36 48
Throttur Vogum 812 6 26.88 -20.88 0.0% 9 18 23 27 31 36 49

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AFT FJO FR GRI GRO HK IV KV KOR SEL TA TV
Afturelding
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
2.34
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.80
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
1.99
1-1-0
2.22
1-1-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.56
Fjolnir
2-0-0
3.68
0-0-2
3.41
1-1-0
3.63
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
2.80
0-0-2
3.86
2-0-0
3.75
0-2-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.46
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
3.05
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.80
2-0-0
2.07
1-0-1
3.23
2-0-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
2.56
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.84
2-0-0
3.85
Grindavik
0-1-1
3.14
0-1-1
1.87
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.44
Grotta
1-1-0
3.84
2-0-0
2.51
0-0-2
2.81
1-0-1
3.28
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
3.57
0-0-2
3.01
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.58
HK Kopavogur
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.50
2-0-0
3.14
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
3.72
2-0-0
3.84
IF Vestri
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
1.66
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
1.99
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
3.02
1-1-0
2.60
KV Vesturbaejar
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
2.42
1-0-1
1.92
0-0-2
2.34
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.45
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.62
Kordrengir
1-0-1
3.50
0-2-0
2.25
0-1-1
2.93
0-1-1
3.20
2-0-0
2.46
0-0-2
2.57
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.23
2-0-0
3.04
0-0-2
3.53
2-0-0
3.87
Selfoss
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.01
0-0-2
2.43
2-0-0
3.01
1-1-0
2.63
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
1.67
1-1-0
2.47
0-0-2
1.79
1-0-1
1.78
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
1.96
0-0-2
2.45
2-0-0
2.71
Throttur Vogum
0-0-2
2.96
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.89
0-1-1
2.84
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.76

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.87 +8.1
Allowed 0.89 -11.8
Differential 0.96 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%6.44%5.30%2.27%3.03%1.52%20.08%
16.44%7.58%6.82%5.30%4.55%1.14%31.82%
25.30%6.82%6.82%0.76%1.14%1.14%21.97%
32.27%5.30%0.76%1.52%1.52%11.36%
43.03%4.55%1.14%1.52%0.38%10.61%
5+1.52%1.14%1.14%0.38%4.17%
Total20.08%31.82%21.97%11.36%10.61%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.73 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.21
CV 0.81 0.81
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
3
44.55%18.18%22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%31.82%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.77 +0.00
SD 1.66 1.38 2.25
CV 0.94 0.78
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
418.18%4.55%22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total13.64%45.45%18.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.68 +0.64
SD 1.78 1.36 2.57
CV 0.77 0.81
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
213.64%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
49.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
Total36.36%27.27%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.05 +1.82
SD 1.67 0.95 1.79
CV 0.58 0.91
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
39.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total18.18%27.27%31.82%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.82 +0.14
SD 1.09 1.47 1.61
CV 0.56 0.81
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
122.73%13.64%13.64%4.55%54.55%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total36.36%18.18%22.73%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.50 +0.41
SD 1.44 1.57 2.32
CV 0.76 1.04
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%
19.09%4.55%13.64%
24.55%22.73%4.55%31.82%
322.73%4.55%4.55%31.82%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.36 +0.73
SD 1.19 1.09 1.72
CV 0.57 0.80
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total13.64%36.36%18.18%9.09%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.00 -0.36
SD 1.26 1.57 2.34
CV 0.77 0.79
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%59.09%
213.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total4.55%22.73%27.27%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.36 -1.14
SD 0.87 1.26 1.70
CV 0.71 0.53
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
113.64%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%45.45%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total36.36%22.73%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.36 +0.27
SD 1.26 1.36 1.93
CV 0.77 1.00
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%
19.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
213.64%13.64%13.64%40.91%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%31.82%22.73%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.77 -0.14
SD 1.09 1.38 1.86
CV 0.67 0.78
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%36.36%
29.09%9.09%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%31.82%13.64%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.18
SD 1.37 1.47 2.17
CV 0.97 0.92
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%18.18%18.18%9.09%68.18%
113.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%
3
4
5+
Total4.55%31.82%13.64%18.18%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.36 2.55 -2.18
SD 0.58 1.60 1.94
CV 1.60 0.63
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 51 34.26 +16.74
2 HK Kopavogur 46 35.64 +10.36
3 Afturelding 29 23.25 +5.75
4 Thor Akureyri 30 24.60 +5.40
5 Grindavik 30 27.94 +2.06

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Vogum 6 26.88 -20.88
2 KV Vesturbaejar 18 26.08 -8.08
3 Fjolnir 36 37.67 -1.67
4 Kordrengir 33 33.87 -0.87
5 IF Vestri 28 27.65 +0.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 12 Jul 5 – Sep 10 1 in 6,097
2 Afturelding 3 Jul 16 – Jul 26 1 in 72
3 HK Kopavogur 6 Jul 14 – Aug 10 1 in 68
4 Thor Akureyri 3 Jul 22 – Aug 6 1 in 53
5 Selfoss 2 May 5 – May 13 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Vogum 7 Aug 10 – Sep 17 1 in 86
2 Grindavik 4 Jul 14 – Aug 5 1 in 74
3 KV Vesturbaejar 5 May 5 – Jun 3 1 in 61
4 Grotta 3 Jul 23 – Aug 5 1 in 33
5 Selfoss 4 Aug 18 – Sep 3 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 14 Jun 23 – Sep 10 1 in 100
2 Grindavik 7 May 6 – Jun 16 1 in 37
3 Selfoss 6 May 5 – Jun 9 1 in 23
4 Afturelding 4 Jun 16 – Jul 5 1 in 19
5 HK Kopavogur 8 Jul 5 – Aug 10 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Vogum 11 Jul 17 – Sep 17 1 in 20
2 Kordrengir 5 Jul 14 – Aug 14 1 in 13
3 Thor Akureyri 7 May 13 – Jun 24 1 in 10
4 Fjolnir 3 Jun 9 – Jun 24 1 in 8
5 Grindavik 4 Jul 14 – Aug 5 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Fylkir Reykjavik14.02%14.96%15.18%13.74%11.74%9.35%6.97%5.33%4.02%2.30%1.50%0.89%
HK Kopavogur18.70%18.41%15.57%12.95%9.85%8.04%6.01%4.20%2.73%1.95%1.00%0.59%
Grotta19.17%17.21%14.50%13.61%10.55%8.72%5.88%4.33%2.85%1.59%1.14%0.45%
Fjolnir29.14%20.62%15.43%11.22%8.27%5.58%3.90%2.48%1.42%1.06%0.68%0.20%
Kordrengir11.23%13.44%14.20%12.94%12.20%10.31%7.90%6.31%5.05%3.20%2.22%1.00%
Grindavik1.75%3.26%5.43%6.79%9.10%10.25%11.71%11.12%11.83%11.16%9.89%7.71%
Thor Akureyri0.40%1.12%1.91%3.07%4.39%6.22%8.59%10.42%12.25%15.51%16.62%19.50%
Afturelding0.26%0.54%1.26%2.33%3.28%4.83%6.81%8.98%11.85%14.72%18.72%26.42%
Selfoss2.07%3.81%5.59%7.82%9.46%10.81%11.63%11.86%10.80%9.77%9.22%7.16%
IF Vestri1.34%2.88%4.34%6.50%8.25%9.69%11.34%11.73%12.17%11.94%10.74%9.08%
KV Vesturbaejar0.87%1.82%2.98%4.20%5.73%7.63%9.42%11.38%12.55%13.70%14.74%14.98%
Throttur Vogum1.05%1.93%3.61%4.83%7.18%8.57%9.84%11.86%12.48%13.10%13.53%12.02%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+23.48%
Clear Edge
53.03%17.42%29.55%
Elo Value
Home Edge
142 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
083.15400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.68 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.59+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.3
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
14%
Fylkir Reykjavik, 4th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.41 * Wild Swing: 9.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.85 * Close: 1.85 to 2.78 * Off: 2.78 to 3.7 * Way Off: 3.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.19 * A Surprise: 1.19 to 1.9 * Several Surprises: 1.9 to 2.61 * Many Surprises: 2.61 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.90 points
Lucky
05.8815
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.315
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.84%
Fylkir Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Throttur Vogum
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.66
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
67%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.36
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.04
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.16
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.69
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1380.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Fjolnir 49.76% 49.36% 0.88%
HK Kopavogur 37.11% 61.30% 1.59%
Grotta 36.38% 62.03% 1.59%
Fylkir Reykjavik 28.98% 68.63% 2.39%
Kordrengir 24.67% 72.11% 3.22%
Selfoss 5.88% 77.74% 16.38%
Grindavik 5.01% 77.39% 17.60%
IF Vestri 4.22% 75.96% 19.82%
Throttur Vogum 2.98% 71.47% 25.55%
KV Vesturbaejar 2.69% 67.59% 29.72%
Thor Akureyri 1.52% 62.36% 36.12%
Afturelding 0.80% 54.06% 45.14%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2022-05-05 KV Vesturbaejar W 3-1 931 1005 33.1% 26.8% 40.1% +14.4 3
2022-05-05 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1005 931 40.1% 26.8% 33.1% -14.4 0
2022-05-05 Selfoss L 2-3 1014 927 54.6% 24.9% 20.6% -10.1 0
2022-05-05 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 927 1014 20.6% 24.9% 54.6% +10.1 3
2022-05-06 Fjolnir L 0-3 1097 1059 48.6% 26.0% 25.4% -28.1 0
2022-05-06 @ Throttur Vogum W 3-0 1059 1097 25.4% 26.0% 48.6% +28.1 3
2022-05-06 Grindavik D 1-1 877 933 35.6% 26.8% 37.5% +0.1 1
2022-05-06 @ Afturelding D 1-1 933 877 37.5% 26.8% 35.6% -0.1 1
2022-05-06 Kordrengir W 1-0 926 1028 29.5% 26.5% 44.0% +9.5 3
2022-05-06 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1028 926 44.0% 26.5% 29.5% -9.5 0
2022-05-07 IF Vestri W 5-0 1021 980 48.9% 26.0% 25.1% +27.0 3
2022-05-07 @ Grotta L 0-5 980 1021 25.1% 26.0% 48.9% -27.0 0
2022-05-12 HK Kopavogur L 1-3 991 1004 41.8% 26.7% 31.5% -14.8 0
2022-05-12 @ KV Vesturbaejar W 3-1 1004 991 31.5% 26.7% 41.8% +14.8 3
2022-05-12 Throttur Vogum W 3-0 933 1069 25.6% 26.0% 48.4% +28.0 4
2022-05-12 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1069 933 48.4% 26.0% 25.6% -28.0 0
2022-05-13 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1018 945 52.9% 25.2% 21.9% -1.4 1
2022-05-13 @ Kordrengir D 1-1 945 1018 21.9% 25.2% 52.9% +1.4 4
2022-05-13 Grotta W 2-1 937 1048 28.4% 26.4% 45.1% +9.1 6
2022-05-13 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1048 937 45.1% 26.4% 28.4% -9.1 3
2022-05-13 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1087 935 61.6% 22.8% 15.6% +9.1 6
2022-05-13 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 935 1087 15.6% 22.8% 61.6% -9.1 3
2022-05-14 Afturelding W 2-0 953 877 53.3% 25.1% 21.6% +10.1 3
2022-05-14 @ IF Vestri L 0-2 877 953 21.6% 25.1% 53.3% -10.1 1
2022-05-19 Fjolnir W 5-2 947 1096 24.2% 25.8% 50.0% +21.0 7
2022-05-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-5 1096 947 50.0% 25.8% 24.2% -21.0 6
2022-05-19 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1039 1019 46.2% 26.3% 27.5% +12.4 6
2022-05-19 @ Grotta L 0-2 1019 1039 27.5% 26.3% 46.2% -12.4 3
2022-05-20 Grindavik D 1-1 926 961 38.7% 26.8% 34.5% -0.2 4
2022-05-20 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 961 926 34.5% 26.8% 38.7% +0.2 5
2022-05-20 KV Vesturbaejar W 2-0 1017 976 48.9% 25.9% 25.1% +11.5 4
2022-05-20 @ Kordrengir L 0-2 976 1017 25.1% 25.9% 48.9% -11.5 0
2022-05-20 Selfoss D 1-1 867 946 32.5% 26.8% 40.8% +0.4 2
2022-05-20 @ Afturelding D 1-1 946 867 40.8% 26.8% 32.5% -0.4 7
2022-05-21 IF Vestri D 1-1 1041 963 53.4% 25.1% 21.4% -1.5 1
2022-05-21 @ Throttur Vogum D 1-1 963 1041 21.4% 25.1% 53.4% +1.5 4
2022-05-27 Afturelding W 2-0 1006 867 60.3% 23.2% 16.4% +7.8 6
2022-05-27 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 867 1006 16.4% 23.2% 60.3% -7.8 2
2022-05-27 Kordrengir D 1-1 1075 1029 49.6% 25.8% 24.6% -1.1 7
2022-05-27 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1029 1075 24.6% 25.8% 49.6% +1.1 5
2022-05-27 Throttur Vogum W 4-0 945 1039 30.6% 26.6% 42.8% +33.1 10
2022-05-27 @ Selfoss L 0-4 1039 945 42.8% 26.6% 30.6% -33.1 1
2022-05-28 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 961 968 42.6% 26.6% 30.8% +7.2 8
2022-05-28 @ Grindavik L 0-1 968 961 30.8% 26.6% 42.6% -7.2 7
2022-05-28 KV Vesturbaejar W 5-1 1051 964 54.5% 24.9% 20.6% +15.4 9
2022-05-28 @ Grotta L 1-5 964 1051 20.6% 24.9% 54.5% -15.4 0
2022-05-28 Thor Akureyri D 3-3 965 926 48.7% 26.0% 25.4% -0.7 5
2022-05-28 @ IF Vestri D 3-3 926 965 25.4% 26.0% 48.7% +0.7 5
2022-06-03 Grindavik D 1-1 1030 968 51.5% 25.5% 23.0% -1.3 6
2022-06-03 @ Kordrengir D 1-1 968 1030 23.0% 25.5% 51.5% +1.3 9
2022-06-03 Grotta D 2-2 859 1066 18.8% 24.2% 56.9% +1.4 3
2022-06-03 @ Afturelding D 2-2 1066 859 56.9% 24.2% 18.8% -1.4 10
2022-06-03 KV Vesturbaejar W 3-1 1074 949 58.8% 23.7% 17.5% +7.2 10
2022-06-03 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 949 1074 17.5% 23.7% 58.8% -7.2 0
2022-06-03 Selfoss L 0-2 926 979 36.2% 26.9% 36.9% -15.4 5
2022-06-03 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 979 926 36.9% 26.9% 36.2% +15.4 13
2022-06-04 IF Vestri W 5-0 961 964 43.1% 26.6% 30.3% +31.5 10
2022-06-04 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-5 964 961 30.3% 26.6% 43.1% -31.4 5
2022-06-09 Afturelding W 2-1 942 860 53.9% 25.0% 21.1% +5.0 3
2022-06-09 @ KV Vesturbaejar L 1-2 860 942 21.1% 25.0% 53.9% -5.0 3
2022-06-09 Fjolnir D 2-2 969 1081 28.4% 26.4% 45.2% +0.6 10
2022-06-09 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1081 969 45.2% 26.4% 28.4% -0.6 11
2022-06-09 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 994 992 43.8% 26.6% 29.6% -0.5 14
2022-06-09 @ Selfoss D 2-2 992 994 29.6% 26.6% 43.8% +0.5 11
2022-06-11 Kordrengir D 2-2 933 1028 30.3% 26.6% 43.1% +0.4 6
2022-06-11 @ IF Vestri D 2-2 1028 933 43.1% 26.6% 30.3% -0.4 7
2022-06-11 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1014 911 56.4% 24.4% 19.2% +7.9 9
2022-06-11 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-3 911 1014 19.2% 24.4% 56.4% -7.9 5
2022-06-16 Afturelding L 0-1 1006 855 61.5% 22.8% 15.7% -12.5 1
2022-06-16 @ Throttur Vogum W 1-0 855 1006 15.7% 22.8% 61.5% +12.5 6
2022-06-16 Grotta L 0-1 903 1065 22.9% 25.5% 51.6% -5.6 5
2022-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1065 903 51.6% 25.5% 22.9% +5.7 13
2022-06-16 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 992 1022 39.5% 26.8% 33.7% -8.7 11
2022-06-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1022 992 33.7% 26.8% 39.5% +8.7 12
2022-06-16 KV Vesturbaejar W 2-1 970 947 46.6% 26.3% 27.1% +6.1 13
2022-06-16 @ Grindavik L 1-2 947 970 27.1% 26.3% 46.6% -6.1 3
2022-06-16 Selfoss W 4-3 1028 993 48.1% 26.1% 25.8% +5.5 10
2022-06-16 @ Kordrengir L 3-4 993 1028 25.8% 26.1% 48.1% -5.5 14
2022-06-18 IF Vestri L 1-2 1080 933 61.2% 22.9% 15.9% -11.7 11
2022-06-18 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 933 1080 15.9% 22.9% 61.2% +11.7 9
2022-06-22 Throttur Vogum D 1-1 941 994 36.1% 26.9% 37.0% +0.0 4
2022-06-22 @ KV Vesturbaejar D 1-1 994 941 37.0% 26.9% 36.1% -0.0 2
2022-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-5 1071 984 54.5% 24.9% 20.6% -22.6 13
2022-06-23 @ Grotta W 5-2 984 1071 20.6% 24.9% 54.5% +22.6 14
2022-06-23 Kordrengir W 3-1 1031 1033 43.1% 26.6% 30.2% +11.6 15
2022-06-23 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-3 1033 1031 30.2% 26.6% 43.1% -11.6 10
2022-06-24 Fjolnir W 2-0 988 1069 32.3% 26.7% 41.0% +16.9 17
2022-06-24 @ Selfoss L 0-2 1069 988 41.0% 26.7% 32.3% -16.9 11
2022-06-24 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 868 898 39.4% 26.8% 33.8% +17.9 9
2022-06-24 @ Afturelding L 1-4 898 868 33.8% 26.8% 39.4% -17.9 5
2022-06-25 Grindavik W 2-1 945 976 39.2% 26.8% 34.0% +7.3 12
2022-06-25 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 976 945 34.0% 26.8% 39.2% -7.3 13
2022-06-27 Throttur Vogum W 1-0 1048 994 50.6% 25.7% 23.7% +5.8 16
2022-06-27 @ Grotta L 0-1 994 1048 23.7% 25.7% 50.6% -5.8 2
2022-06-30 HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1052 1042 44.8% 26.5% 28.7% +11.2 14
2022-06-30 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1042 1052 28.7% 26.5% 44.8% -11.2 15
2022-06-30 Throttur Vogum W 5-0 880 988 28.8% 26.5% 44.7% +42.3 8
2022-06-30 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-5 988 880 44.7% 26.5% 28.8% -42.3 2
2022-07-01 Afturelding D 2-2 1006 886 58.3% 23.8% 17.8% -1.4 15
2022-07-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 886 1006 17.8% 23.8% 58.3% +1.4 10
2022-07-01 Grotta W 1-0 1022 1054 39.1% 26.8% 34.1% +7.8 13
2022-07-01 @ Kordrengir L 0-1 1054 1022 34.1% 26.8% 39.1% -7.8 16
2022-07-01 KV Vesturbaejar L 2-4 952 941 45.1% 26.4% 28.5% -14.1 12
2022-07-01 @ IF Vestri W 4-2 941 952 28.5% 26.4% 45.1% +14.1 7
2022-07-01 Selfoss D 2-2 969 1005 38.5% 26.8% 34.6% -0.1 14
2022-07-01 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1005 969 34.6% 26.8% 38.5% +0.1 18
2022-07-05 Fjolnir W 4-1 1046 1063 41.2% 26.7% 32.0% +17.2 19
2022-07-05 @ Grotta L 1-4 1063 1046 32.0% 26.7% 41.2% -17.2 14
2022-07-05 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 946 1005 35.2% 26.8% 38.0% -21.9 2
2022-07-05 @ Throttur Vogum W 3-0 1005 946 38.0% 26.8% 35.2% +21.9 18
2022-07-05 Grindavik W 2-1 1031 969 51.6% 25.5% 22.9% +5.3 18
2022-07-05 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 969 1031 22.9% 25.5% 51.6% -5.3 14
2022-07-05 IF Vestri L 0-1 1005 938 52.2% 25.4% 22.4% -10.9 18
2022-07-05 @ Selfoss W 1-0 938 1005 22.4% 25.4% 52.2% +10.9 15
2022-07-05 Kordrengir W 2-1 887 1030 24.9% 25.9% 49.2% +9.8 13
2022-07-05 @ Afturelding L 1-2 1030 887 49.2% 25.9% 24.9% -9.8 13
2022-07-05 KV Vesturbaejar W 3-1 922 955 39.0% 26.8% 34.2% +12.8 11
2022-07-05 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 955 922 34.2% 26.8% 39.0% -12.8 7
2022-07-09 Afturelding W 2-1 1046 897 61.3% 22.9% 15.8% +3.8 17
2022-07-09 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 897 1046 15.8% 22.9% 61.3% -3.8 13
2022-07-09 Grotta W 3-1 963 1063 29.8% 26.6% 43.6% +15.4 17
2022-07-09 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1063 963 43.6% 26.6% 29.8% -15.3 19
2022-07-09 HK Kopavogur D 3-3 949 1036 31.4% 26.7% 41.9% +0.3 16
2022-07-09 @ IF Vestri D 3-3 1036 949 41.9% 26.7% 31.4% -0.3 19
2022-07-09 Selfoss L 1-2 942 994 36.2% 26.9% 36.9% -7.7 7
2022-07-09 @ KV Vesturbaejar W 2-1 994 942 36.9% 26.9% 36.2% +7.7 21
2022-07-09 Thor Akureyri W 4-0 1027 935 55.1% 24.7% 20.2% +18.0 21
2022-07-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 935 1027 20.2% 24.7% 55.1% -18.0 11
2022-07-09 Throttur Vogum W 1-0 1020 924 55.6% 24.6% 19.8% +5.0 16
2022-07-09 @ Kordrengir L 0-1 924 1020 19.8% 24.6% 55.6% -5.0 2
2022-07-14 Grindavik W 2-0 919 979 35.1% 26.8% 38.0% +16.0 5
2022-07-14 @ Throttur Vogum L 0-2 979 919 38.0% 26.8% 35.1% -16.0 17
2022-07-14 Kordrengir W 4-1 1045 1025 46.2% 26.3% 27.5% +15.2 24
2022-07-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 1025 1045 27.5% 26.3% 46.2% -15.2 16
2022-07-14 KV Vesturbaejar W 4-0 1036 934 56.2% 24.4% 19.3% +17.4 22
2022-07-14 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-4 934 1036 19.3% 24.4% 56.2% -17.4 7
2022-07-14 Selfoss W 3-0 1048 1002 49.6% 25.8% 24.6% +16.5 22
2022-07-14 @ Grotta L 0-3 1002 1048 24.6% 25.8% 49.6% -16.4 21
2022-07-15 Fjolnir L 1-4 917 1049 25.9% 26.1% 48.0% -14.5 11
2022-07-15 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1049 917 48.0% 26.1% 25.9% +14.5 20
2022-07-16 Afturelding L 1-4 949 893 50.8% 25.6% 23.6% -24.6 16
2022-07-16 @ IF Vestri W 4-1 893 949 23.6% 25.6% 50.8% +24.6 16
2022-07-17 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 935 1053 27.5% 26.3% 46.1% -6.2 5
2022-07-17 @ Throttur Vogum W 2-1 1053 935 46.1% 26.3% 27.5% +6.2 25
2022-07-21 Afturelding L 4-5 963 918 49.4% 25.9% 24.7% -9.0 17
2022-07-21 @ Grindavik W 5-4 918 963 24.7% 25.9% 49.4% +9.0 19
2022-07-21 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 917 1060 24.8% 25.9% 49.3% -5.4 7
2022-07-21 @ KV Vesturbaejar W 3-2 1060 917 49.3% 25.9% 24.8% +5.4 27
2022-07-21 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 985 1060 33.1% 26.8% 40.1% -7.2 21
2022-07-21 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1060 985 40.1% 26.8% 33.1% +7.2 28
2022-07-21 Throttur Vogum W 6-0 1064 928 59.9% 23.4% 16.7% +22.0 23
2022-07-21 @ Fjolnir L 0-6 928 1064 16.7% 23.4% 59.9% -22.1 5
2022-07-22 Thor Akureyri L 2-4 1010 902 56.9% 24.3% 18.9% -17.1 16
2022-07-22 @ Kordrengir W 4-2 902 1010 18.9% 24.3% 56.9% +17.1 14
2022-07-23 Grotta W 3-1 925 1064 25.2% 26.0% 48.9% +16.8 19
2022-07-23 @ IF Vestri L 1-3 1064 925 48.9% 26.0% 25.2% -16.8 22
2022-07-26 Afturelding L 1-4 978 927 50.2% 25.7% 24.0% -24.3 21
2022-07-26 @ Selfoss W 4-1 927 978 24.0% 25.7% 50.2% +24.4 22
2022-07-26 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1086 1065 46.3% 26.3% 27.4% -18.6 23
2022-07-26 @ Fjolnir W 2-0 1065 1086 27.4% 26.3% 46.3% +18.6 30
2022-07-26 Kordrengir D 2-2 912 992 32.3% 26.7% 41.0% +0.3 8
2022-07-26 @ KV Vesturbaejar D 2-2 992 912 41.0% 26.7% 32.3% -0.3 17
2022-07-27 Grotta W 2-1 1067 1048 46.1% 26.3% 27.6% +6.2 31
2022-07-27 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1048 1067 27.6% 26.3% 46.1% -6.2 22
2022-07-27 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 954 919 48.1% 26.1% 25.8% -9.6 17
2022-07-27 @ Grindavik W 2-1 919 954 25.8% 26.1% 48.1% +9.6 17
2022-07-27 Throttur Vogum W 4-0 941 906 48.2% 26.1% 25.8% +22.4 22
2022-07-27 @ IF Vestri L 0-4 906 941 25.8% 26.1% 48.2% -22.4 5
2022-08-04 Selfoss D 1-1 884 954 33.8% 26.8% 39.5% +0.2 6
2022-08-04 @ Throttur Vogum D 1-1 954 884 39.5% 26.8% 33.8% -0.2 22
2022-08-05 Fjolnir D 0-0 992 1067 33.0% 26.8% 40.2% +0.4 18
2022-08-05 @ Kordrengir D 0-0 1067 992 40.2% 26.8% 33.0% -0.4 24
2022-08-05 Grindavik W 5-2 1084 944 60.4% 23.2% 16.4% +8.3 33
2022-08-05 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-5 944 1084 16.4% 23.2% 60.4% -8.3 17
2022-08-05 Grotta W 2-1 912 1041 26.3% 26.2% 47.5% +9.5 11
2022-08-05 @ KV Vesturbaejar L 1-2 1041 912 47.5% 26.2% 26.3% -9.5 22
2022-08-05 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 951 1073 27.2% 26.3% 46.6% -6.5 22
2022-08-05 @ Afturelding W 1-0 1073 951 46.6% 26.3% 27.2% +6.5 34
2022-08-06 IF Vestri W 1-0 929 964 38.7% 26.8% 34.5% +7.9 20
2022-08-06 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 964 929 34.5% 26.8% 38.7% -7.9 22
2022-08-10 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 954 937 45.8% 26.4% 27.8% +6.3 25
2022-08-10 @ Selfoss L 1-2 937 954 27.8% 26.4% 45.8% -6.3 20
2022-08-10 Throttur Vogum W 4-1 1080 884 65.9% 21.1% 13.0% +7.4 37
2022-08-10 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-4 884 1080 13.0% 21.1% 65.9% -7.4 6
2022-08-12 Afturelding W 4-2 1032 945 54.6% 24.9% 20.6% +7.5 25
2022-08-12 @ Grotta L 2-4 945 1032 20.6% 24.9% 54.6% -7.5 22
2022-08-12 Fjolnir L 1-4 921 1067 24.5% 25.8% 49.6% -13.9 11
2022-08-12 @ KV Vesturbaejar W 4-1 1067 921 49.6% 25.8% 24.5% +13.9 27
2022-08-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 956 1092 25.5% 26.0% 48.4% -6.2 22
2022-08-13 @ IF Vestri W 1-0 1092 956 48.4% 26.0% 25.5% +6.2 36
2022-08-14 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 930 1087 23.4% 25.6% 51.0% +20.1 23
2022-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1087 930 51.0% 25.6% 23.4% -20.1 37
2022-08-14 Kordrengir W 2-0 936 993 35.6% 26.8% 37.6% +15.8 20
2022-08-14 @ Grindavik L 0-2 993 936 37.6% 26.8% 35.6% -15.8 18
2022-08-18 Grindavik W 4-3 1081 952 59.3% 23.6% 17.2% +3.8 30
2022-08-18 @ Fjolnir L 3-4 952 1081 17.2% 23.6% 59.3% -3.8 20
2022-08-18 Grotta L 0-1 877 1039 22.8% 25.5% 51.7% -5.6 6
2022-08-18 @ Throttur Vogum W 1-0 1039 877 51.7% 25.5% 22.8% +5.6 28
2022-08-18 IF Vestri W 4-0 977 950 47.1% 26.2% 26.7% +23.0 21
2022-08-18 @ Kordrengir L 0-4 950 977 26.7% 26.2% 47.1% -23.0 22
2022-08-18 KV Vesturbaejar W 4-1 937 908 47.5% 26.2% 26.4% +14.7 25
2022-08-18 @ Afturelding L 1-4 908 937 26.4% 26.2% 47.5% -14.7 11
2022-08-18 Selfoss W 4-3 1099 960 60.3% 23.2% 16.5% +3.6 39
2022-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 3-4 960 1099 16.5% 23.2% 60.3% -3.6 25
2022-08-23 Fjolnir W 4-1 927 1085 23.3% 25.6% 51.2% +24.7 25
2022-08-23 @ IF Vestri L 1-4 1085 927 51.2% 25.6% 23.3% -24.7 30
2022-08-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1067 1102 38.6% 26.8% 34.5% -16.1 37
2022-08-23 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1102 1067 34.5% 26.8% 38.6% +16.1 42
2022-08-23 Grindavik L 1-3 893 948 35.8% 26.8% 37.4% -13.2 11
2022-08-23 @ KV Vesturbaejar W 3-1 948 893 37.4% 26.8% 35.8% +13.2 23
2022-08-23 Kordrengir L 0-1 956 1000 37.5% 26.8% 35.7% -8.4 25
2022-08-23 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1000 956 35.7% 26.8% 37.5% +8.4 24
2022-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1045 951 55.4% 24.6% 19.9% +5.0 31
2022-08-23 @ Grotta L 0-1 951 1045 19.9% 24.6% 55.4% -5.0 23
2022-08-23 Throttur Vogum W 4-0 952 871 53.8% 25.0% 21.2% +18.9 28
2022-08-23 @ Afturelding L 0-4 871 952 21.2% 25.0% 53.8% -18.9 6
2022-08-27 Afturelding D 0-0 946 971 40.1% 26.8% 33.2% -0.3 24
2022-08-27 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 971 946 33.2% 26.8% 40.1% +0.3 29
2022-08-27 Grotta W 5-1 1118 1050 52.3% 25.4% 22.3% +16.5 45
2022-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-5 1050 1118 22.3% 25.4% 52.3% -16.5 31
2022-08-27 HK Kopavogur L 1-3 1008 1051 37.6% 26.8% 35.6% -13.7 24
2022-08-27 @ Kordrengir W 3-1 1051 1008 35.6% 26.8% 37.6% +13.7 40
2022-08-27 IF Vestri D 2-2 961 951 44.9% 26.5% 28.7% -0.5 24
2022-08-27 @ Grindavik D 2-2 951 961 28.7% 26.5% 44.9% +0.5 26
2022-08-27 KV Vesturbaejar L 1-2 852 880 39.8% 26.8% 33.4% -8.2 6
2022-08-27 @ Throttur Vogum W 2-1 880 852 33.4% 26.8% 39.8% +8.2 14
2022-08-27 Selfoss W 4-1 1060 948 57.4% 24.1% 18.5% +10.7 33
2022-08-27 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 948 1060 18.5% 24.1% 57.4% -10.7 25
2022-09-02 Fjolnir W 3-1 1064 1071 42.7% 26.6% 30.7% +11.8 43
2022-09-02 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-3 1071 1064 30.7% 26.6% 42.7% -11.8 33
2022-09-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 971 1135 22.7% 25.4% 51.8% -10.6 29
2022-09-02 @ Afturelding W 2-0 1135 971 51.8% 25.4% 22.7% +10.6 48
2022-09-02 Kordrengir L 1-3 1034 994 48.7% 26.0% 25.3% -16.8 31
2022-09-02 @ Grotta W 3-1 994 1034 25.3% 26.0% 48.7% +16.8 27
2022-09-03 Grindavik L 0-3 937 961 40.3% 26.8% 32.9% -24.2 25
2022-09-03 @ Selfoss W 3-0 961 937 32.9% 26.8% 40.3% +24.2 27
2022-09-03 IF Vestri D 1-1 888 952 34.5% 26.8% 38.6% +0.2 15
2022-09-03 @ KV Vesturbaejar D 1-1 952 888 38.6% 26.8% 34.5% -0.2 27
2022-09-03 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 844 945 29.6% 26.6% 43.8% -13.2 6
2022-09-03 @ Throttur Vogum W 2-0 945 844 43.8% 26.6% 29.6% +13.2 27
2022-09-10 Afturelding W 4-0 1011 960 50.2% 25.8% 24.1% +21.1 30
2022-09-10 @ Kordrengir L 0-4 960 1011 24.1% 25.8% 50.2% -21.1 29
2022-09-10 Grotta L 0-1 1059 1017 49.1% 25.9% 25.0% -10.3 33
2022-09-10 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1017 1059 25.0% 25.9% 49.1% +10.3 34
2022-09-10 HK Kopavogur W 4-3 985 1076 30.9% 26.7% 42.5% +8.0 30
2022-09-10 @ Grindavik L 3-4 1076 985 42.5% 26.7% 30.9% -8.0 43
2022-09-10 Selfoss D 2-2 952 913 48.7% 26.0% 25.4% -0.8 28
2022-09-10 @ IF Vestri D 2-2 913 952 25.4% 26.0% 48.7% +0.8 26
2022-09-10 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 888 958 33.7% 26.8% 39.5% +8.7 18
2022-09-10 @ KV Vesturbaejar L 0-1 958 888 39.5% 26.8% 33.7% -8.7 27
2022-09-10 Throttur Vogum W 4-0 1145 831 76.0% 16.2% 7.8% +6.4 51
2022-09-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 831 1145 7.8% 16.2% 76.0% -6.4 6
2022-09-17 Fjolnir L 1-5 939 1049 28.6% 26.5% 44.9% -20.3 29
2022-09-17 @ Afturelding W 5-1 1049 939 44.9% 26.5% 28.6% +20.3 36
2022-09-17 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 950 1152 19.2% 24.4% 56.3% +11.0 30
2022-09-17 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1152 950 56.3% 24.4% 19.2% -10.9 51
2022-09-17 Grindavik W 3-1 1027 993 48.1% 26.1% 25.9% +10.2 37
2022-09-17 @ Grotta L 1-3 993 1027 25.9% 26.1% 48.1% -10.2 30
2022-09-17 IF Vestri W 2-1 1068 951 58.0% 24.0% 18.1% +4.3 46
2022-09-17 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 951 1068 18.1% 24.0% 58.0% -4.3 28
2022-09-17 Kordrengir L 0-3 824 1032 18.8% 24.2% 57.0% -12.9 6
2022-09-17 @ Throttur Vogum W 3-0 1032 824 57.0% 24.2% 18.8% +12.9 33
2022-09-17 KV Vesturbaejar W 2-0 914 897 45.8% 26.4% 27.8% +12.6 29
2022-09-17 @ Selfoss L 0-2 897 914 27.8% 26.4% 45.8% -12.6 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-06-16 15.67% Afturelding 855 1 @ Throttur Vogum 1006 0
2 2022-06-18 15.89% IF Vestri 933 2 @ Fjolnir 1080 1
3 2022-07-22 18.86% Thor Akureyri 902 4 @ Kordrengir 1010 2
4 2022-09-17 19.25% @ Thor Akureyri 950 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1152 1
5 2022-05-05 20.57% Selfoss 927 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1014 2
6 2022-06-23 20.60% Fylkir Reykjavik 984 5 @ Grotta 1071 2
7 2022-07-05 22.45% IF Vestri 938 1 @ Selfoss 1005 0
8 2022-08-23 23.27% @ IF Vestri 927 4 Fjolnir 1085 1
9 2022-08-14 23.42% @ Thor Akureyri 930 2 HK Kopavogur 1087 0
10 2022-07-16 23.56% Afturelding 893 4 @ IF Vestri 949 1
11 2022-07-26 24.02% Afturelding 927 4 @ Selfoss 978 1
12 2022-05-19 24.18% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 947 5 Fjolnir 1096 2
13 2022-07-21 24.70% Afturelding 918 5 @ Grindavik 963 4
14 2022-07-05 24.90% @ Afturelding 887 2 Kordrengir 1030 1
15 2022-09-10 24.98% Grotta 1017 1 @ Fjolnir 1059 0
16 2022-07-23 25.16% @ IF Vestri 925 3 Grotta 1064 1
17 2022-09-02 25.32% Kordrengir 994 3 @ Grotta 1034 1
18 2022-05-06 25.42% Fjolnir 1059 3 @ Throttur Vogum 1097 0
19 2022-05-12 25.57% @ Grindavik 933 3 Throttur Vogum 1069 0
20 2022-07-27 25.82% Thor Akureyri 919 2 @ Grindavik 954 1
21 2022-08-05 26.30% @ KV Vesturbaejar 912 2 Grotta 1041 1
22 2022-07-26 27.40% Fylkir Reykjavik 1065 2 @ Fjolnir 1086 0
23 2022-05-13 28.44% @ Selfoss 937 2 Grotta 1048 1
24 2022-07-01 28.50% KV Vesturbaejar 941 4 @ IF Vestri 952 2
25 2022-06-30 28.80% @ Thor Akureyri 880 5 Throttur Vogum 988 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-06-30 42.28 @ Thor Akureyri 5 880 28.80% Throttur Vogum 0 988 44.74% 26.47%
2 2022-05-27 33.13 @ Selfoss 4 945 30.57% Throttur Vogum 0 1039 42.81% 26.63%
3 2022-06-04 31.45 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 961 43.07% IF Vestri 0 964 30.32% 26.61%
4 2022-05-06 28.07 Fjolnir 3 1059 25.42% @ Throttur Vogum 0 1097 48.57% 26.00%
5 2022-05-12 27.99 @ Grindavik 3 933 25.57% Throttur Vogum 0 1069 48.40% 26.03%
6 2022-05-07 27.03 @ Grotta 5 1021 48.89% IF Vestri 0 980 25.15% 25.96%
7 2022-08-23 24.72 @ IF Vestri 4 927 23.27% Fjolnir 1 1085 51.16% 25.57%
8 2022-07-16 24.57 Afturelding 4 893 23.56% @ IF Vestri 1 949 50.80% 25.64%
9 2022-07-26 24.35 Afturelding 4 927 24.02% @ Selfoss 1 978 50.24% 25.74%
10 2022-09-03 24.20 Grindavik 3 961 32.93% @ Selfoss 0 937 40.30% 26.77%
11 2022-08-18 23.01 @ Kordrengir 4 977 47.15% IF Vestri 0 950 26.65% 26.20%
12 2022-06-23 22.59 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 984 20.60% @ Grotta 2 1071 54.54% 24.86%
13 2022-07-27 22.38 @ IF Vestri 4 941 48.17% Throttur Vogum 0 906 25.77% 26.06%
14 2022-07-21 22.05 @ Fjolnir 6 1064 59.94% Throttur Vogum 0 928 16.72% 23.35%
15 2022-07-05 21.88 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1005 37.97% @ Throttur Vogum 0 946 35.20% 26.84%
16 2022-09-10 21.14 @ Kordrengir 4 1011 50.17% Afturelding 0 960 24.08% 25.75%
17 2022-05-19 21.02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 947 24.18% Fjolnir 2 1096 50.05% 25.77%
18 2022-09-17 20.34 Fjolnir 5 1049 44.89% @ Afturelding 1 939 28.65% 26.45%
19 2022-08-14 20.12 @ Thor Akureyri 2 930 23.42% HK Kopavogur 0 1087 50.98% 25.61%
20 2022-08-23 18.86 @ Afturelding 4 952 53.80% Throttur Vogum 0 871 21.17% 25.03%
21 2022-07-26 18.59 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1065 27.40% @ Fjolnir 0 1086 46.30% 26.30%
22 2022-07-09 18.04 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1027 55.12% Thor Akureyri 0 935 20.16% 24.72%
23 2022-06-24 17.89 @ Afturelding 4 868 39.44% Thor Akureyri 1 898 33.76% 26.80%
24 2022-07-14 17.35 @ HK Kopavogur 4 1036 56.22% KV Vesturbaejar 0 934 19.34% 24.44%
25 2022-07-05 17.18 @ Grotta 4 1046 41.24% Fjolnir 1 1063 32.03% 26.73%