2023 1. deild karla Season

132 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

IA Akranes

49 pts

IF Vestri · via playoff

Relegated

Aegir

9 pts

Selfoss · 23 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

13.24 points above expected

49 points · 35.76 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aegir

16.21 points below expected

9 points · 25.21 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Promoted 22 15 4 3 49 54 31 +23 35.76 +13.24
2 Afturelding 22 13 4 5 43 60 33 +27 38.72 +4.28
3 Fjolnir 22 12 6 4 42 55 32 +23 38.46 +3.54
4 IF Vestri Promoted 22 11 6 5 39 37 26 +11 30.54 +8.46
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 11 2 9 35 47 37 +10 31.73 +3.27
6 Grindavik 22 8 4 10 28 27 38 -11 29.85 -1.85
7 Thor Akureyri 22 8 3 11 27 27 39 -12 25.75 +1.25
8 Throttur Reykjavik 22 7 5 10 26 45 46 -1 25.30 +0.70
9 Grotta 22 6 8 8 26 34 37 -3 32.12 -6.12
10 Njardvik 22 6 5 11 23 36 47 -11 24.83 -1.83
11 Selfoss Relegated 22 7 2 13 23 37 49 -12 27.74 -4.74
12 Aegir Relegated 22 2 3 17 9 23 67 -44 25.21 -16.21

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Semifinals

Afturelding 5
Leiknir Reykjavik 1

Leg 1: Leiknir Reykjavik 1-2 Afturelding

Leg 2: Afturelding 3-0 Leiknir Reykjavik

IF Vestri 2
Fjolnir 1

Leg 1: IF Vestri 1-0 Fjolnir

Leg 2: Fjolnir 1-1 IF Vestri

Finals

IF Vestri 1
Afturelding 0

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1252 49 35.76 +13.24 99.0% 15 26 32 36 40 45 58
Afturelding 1234 43 38.72 +4.28 79.1% 18 29 35 39 43 48 61
IF Vestri 1232 39 30.54 +8.46 93.6% 10 21 27 31 34 40 51
Fjolnir 1204 42 38.46 +3.54 74.9% 14 29 35 38 43 48 60
Leiknir Reykjavik 1120 35 31.73 +3.27 73.9% 11 22 28 32 36 41 54
Throttur Reykjavik 1076 26 25.30 +0.70 58.8% 6 16 21 25 29 35 49
Grotta 1050 26 32.12 -6.12 17.1% 11 22 28 32 36 42 55
Njardvik 1039 23 24.83 -1.83 41.8% 5 16 21 25 29 35 49
Selfoss 1015 23 27.74 -4.74 23.9% 8 18 24 28 32 37 49
Thor Akureyri 1003 27 25.75 +1.25 62.1% 7 16 22 26 30 36 47
Grindavik 970 28 29.85 -1.85 41.6% 9 20 26 30 34 40 51
Aegir 844 9 25.21 -16.21 0.2% 3 16 21 25 29 35 47

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AEG AFT FJO GRI GRO IA IV LR NJA SEL TA TR
Aegir
0-0-2
1.39
0-0-2
2.35
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.02
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
1.78
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.79
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
3.07
Afturelding
2-0-0
4.20
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.62
0-1-1
3.74
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
3.36
2-0-0
3.63
1-0-1
3.78
Fjolnir
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.61
0-2-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.27
0-1-1
3.62
2-0-0
3.22
1-1-0
4.08
1-0-1
3.64
2-0-0
3.66
0-2-0
3.83
Grindavik
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
2.44
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
3.16
0-0-2
3.10
Grotta
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.35
0-2-0
2.02
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.59
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
3.34
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
2.32
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.50
0-2-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.91
1-1-0
3.70
IF Vestri
1-0-1
3.77
0-1-1
1.92
1-1-0
1.93
0-1-1
2.99
1-1-0
2.40
0-2-0
2.45
2-0-0
2.63
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
3.03
Leiknir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
1.81
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
3.06
Njardvik
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-1
1.48
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.66
Selfoss
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
2.14
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.91
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
3.12
Thor Akureyri
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.94
Throttur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
1.77
0-2-0
1.72
2-0-0
2.44
1-1-0
2.20
0-1-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
2.88
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.59

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.65 +7.5
Allowed 0.79 -9.1
Differential 0.93 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.76%6.82%3.03%2.27%1.14%2.27%16.29%
16.82%7.58%8.33%5.30%1.52%1.52%31.06%
23.03%8.33%9.85%3.03%1.89%1.14%27.27%
32.27%5.30%3.03%1.52%1.14%0.76%14.02%
41.14%1.52%1.89%1.14%5.68%
5+2.27%1.52%1.14%0.76%5.68%
Total16.29%31.06%27.27%14.02%5.68%5.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.46 2.22
CV 0.80 0.80
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
14.55%4.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%31.82%
3
4
5+
Total4.55%13.64%18.18%31.82%9.09%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 3.05 -2.00
SD 0.79 1.68 1.95
CV 0.75 0.55
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%31.82%31.82%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 1.50 +1.23
SD 2.12 1.30 2.69
CV 0.78 0.87
Max 9 5 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
113.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
213.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%9.09%13.64%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.45 +1.05
SD 1.60 1.26 2.06
CV 0.64 0.87
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%36.36%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%27.27%27.27%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.73 -0.50
SD 1.57 1.52 2.37
CV 1.28 0.88
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%27.27%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.68 -0.14
SD 1.14 1.17 1.64
CV 0.74 0.70
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
49.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total27.27%27.27%31.82%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.41 +1.05
SD 1.63 1.26 1.89
CV 0.66 0.89
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
19.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%36.36%
24.55%22.73%13.64%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.18 +0.50
SD 1.09 0.85 1.65
CV 0.65 0.72
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.68 +0.45
SD 1.49 1.29 2.15
CV 0.70 0.77
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%27.27%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.14 -0.50
SD 1.36 1.61 2.13
CV 0.83 0.75
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%22.73%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%27.27%36.36%9.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.23 -0.55
SD 1.13 1.90 2.30
CV 0.67 0.85
Max 4 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
213.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total9.09%50.00%13.64%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.77 -0.55
SD 1.19 1.41 2.13
CV 0.97 0.80
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%18.18%9.09%31.82%
213.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%27.27%31.82%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 2.09 -0.05
SD 1.17 1.44 1.81
CV 0.57 0.69
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 49 35.76 +13.24
2 IF Vestri 39 30.54 +8.46
3 Afturelding 43 38.72 +4.28
4 Fjolnir 42 38.46 +3.54
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 35 31.73 +3.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aegir 9 25.21 -16.21
2 Grotta 26 32.12 -6.12
3 Selfoss 23 27.74 -4.74
4 Grindavik 28 29.85 -1.85
5 Njardvik 23 24.83 -1.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 250
2 Njardvik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 16 1 in 108
3 IF Vestri 5 Aug 20 – Sep 16 1 in 80
4 IA Akranes 5 Jun 9 – Jul 7 1 in 51
5 Selfoss 3 Jul 25 – Aug 2 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aegir 6 May 21 – Jun 22 1 in 535
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 May 12 – Jun 2 1 in 77
3 Selfoss 5 Jun 16 – Jul 21 1 in 69
4 Grindavik 4 Jul 16 – Jul 29 1 in 29
5 Afturelding 2 Aug 26 – Aug 31 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Afturelding 13 May 5 – Jul 21 1 in 121
2 IA Akranes 8 Jun 9 – Jul 28 1 in 32
3 IF Vestri 6 Jul 8 – Aug 8 1 in 19
4 Fjolnir 8 May 5 – Jun 24 1 in 18
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grotta 9 Jul 25 – Sep 1 1 in 67
2 Afturelding 4 Jul 28 – Aug 16 1 in 45
3 Grindavik 7 Jun 30 – Aug 2 1 in 43
4 Leiknir Reykjavik 7 May 12 – Jun 28 1 in 28
5 Njardvik 9 Jun 3 – Jul 21 1 in 22

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
IA Akranes16.38%18.24%16.72%13.74%10.42%8.02%5.91%4.32%2.95%1.80%1.17%0.33%
Afturelding33.19%22.79%15.44%10.24%7.10%4.50%2.96%1.73%1.07%0.60%0.32%0.06%
Fjolnir31.01%22.58%15.80%10.38%6.93%5.05%3.28%2.34%1.34%0.77%0.38%0.14%
IF Vestri3.34%6.31%8.98%10.91%11.77%12.05%11.47%10.54%8.37%7.30%5.47%3.49%
Leiknir Reykjavik4.51%8.96%11.12%12.59%12.24%11.96%10.14%9.10%7.20%5.71%4.12%2.35%
Grindavik2.81%5.20%7.32%8.86%11.07%10.29%11.41%10.37%10.83%8.69%7.65%5.50%
Thor Akureyri0.73%1.60%2.55%4.16%5.34%7.17%9.02%10.66%11.77%14.30%15.40%17.30%
Throttur Reykjavik0.53%1.21%2.30%3.97%5.69%6.90%8.85%10.53%12.53%13.85%16.20%17.44%
Grotta5.38%8.65%11.15%12.42%12.49%12.05%10.52%8.75%6.71%5.62%3.80%2.46%
Njardvik0.43%1.00%2.22%3.00%4.56%6.31%7.74%10.12%12.16%14.49%17.03%20.94%
Selfoss1.26%2.51%4.35%6.56%7.80%9.55%10.95%11.38%12.52%12.07%11.33%9.72%
Aegir0.43%0.95%2.05%3.17%4.59%6.15%7.75%10.16%12.55%14.80%17.13%20.27%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.12%
Slight Edge
46.21%19.70%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge
125 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
042.32400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
16%
IA Akranes, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.27/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.69 * Some Luck: 4.69 to 7.04 * Lucky: 7.04 to 9.38 * Wild Swing: 9.38 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.83 * Close: 1.83 to 2.74 * Off: 2.74 to 3.66 * Way Off: 3.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.25 * A Surprise: 1.25 to 1.99 * Several Surprises: 1.99 to 2.74 * Many Surprises: 2.74 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.18 points
Lucky
05.8715
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Close
02.295
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.02%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.16%
Aegir
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.58
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.54
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.09
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.73
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Afturelding 55.98% 43.64% 0.38%
Fjolnir 53.59% 45.89% 0.52%
IA Akranes 34.62% 63.88% 1.50%
Grotta 14.03% 79.71% 6.26%
Leiknir Reykjavik 13.47% 80.06% 6.47%
IF Vestri 9.65% 81.39% 8.96%
Grindavik 8.01% 78.84% 13.15%
Selfoss 3.77% 75.18% 21.05%
Thor Akureyri 2.33% 64.97% 32.70%
Throttur Reykjavik 1.74% 64.62% 33.64%
Aegir 1.38% 61.22% 37.40%
Njardvik 1.43% 60.60% 37.97%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2023-05-05 Afturelding L 1-3 1068 1065 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% -28.3 0
2023-05-05 @ Selfoss W 3-1 1065 1068 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% +28.3 3
2023-05-05 Fjolnir L 0-1 1152 1118 53.4% 23.0% 23.7% -18.5 0
2023-05-05 @ Aegir W 1-0 1118 1152 23.7% 23.0% 53.4% +18.5 3
2023-05-05 Grindavik L 0-2 1105 1088 51.4% 23.1% 25.5% -33.7 0
2023-05-05 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1088 1105 25.5% 23.1% 51.4% +33.7 3
2023-05-05 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-3 1039 1086 43.1% 23.5% 33.4% -25.1 0
2023-05-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1086 1039 33.4% 23.5% 43.1% +25.1 3
2023-05-05 Njardvik D 1-1 1107 1057 55.2% 22.8% 22.0% -2.6 1
2023-05-05 @ Grotta D 1-1 1057 1107 22.0% 22.8% 55.2% +2.6 1
2023-05-06 IF Vestri W 2-1 1080 1075 49.9% 23.2% 26.9% +10.0 3
2023-05-06 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1075 1080 26.9% 23.2% 49.9% -10.0 0
2023-05-11 Aegir D 2-2 1059 1134 39.2% 23.6% 37.3% -0.1 2
2023-05-11 @ Njardvik D 2-2 1134 1059 37.3% 23.6% 39.2% +0.1 1
2023-05-11 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1137 1014 62.5% 21.8% 15.7% -2.4 4
2023-05-11 @ Fjolnir D 3-3 1014 1137 15.7% 21.8% 62.5% +2.4 1
2023-05-12 Grotta D 0-0 1121 1104 51.3% 23.1% 25.5% -2.2 4
2023-05-12 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1104 1121 25.5% 23.1% 51.3% +2.2 2
2023-05-12 Selfoss L 2-3 1111 1040 57.5% 22.6% 20.0% -17.7 3
2023-05-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1040 1111 20.0% 22.6% 57.5% +17.7 3
2023-05-12 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1094 1090 49.7% 23.2% 27.1% +10.7 6
2023-05-12 @ Afturelding L 0-1 1090 1094 27.1% 23.2% 49.7% -10.7 3
2023-05-13 IA Akranes D 2-2 1065 1071 48.4% 23.3% 28.2% -1.1 1
2023-05-13 @ IF Vestri D 2-2 1071 1065 28.2% 23.3% 48.4% +1.1 1
2023-05-20 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1079 1093 47.5% 23.4% 29.2% +11.3 6
2023-05-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1093 1079 29.2% 23.4% 47.5% -11.3 3
2023-05-21 Aegir W 3-1 1016 1134 33.1% 23.5% 43.4% +25.3 4
2023-05-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1134 1016 43.4% 23.5% 33.1% -25.3 1
2023-05-21 Fjolnir L 1-2 1057 1134 38.8% 23.6% 37.6% -13.4 3
2023-05-21 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1134 1057 37.6% 23.6% 38.8% +13.4 7
2023-05-21 IF Vestri D 2-2 1107 1064 54.3% 22.9% 22.8% -1.8 3
2023-05-21 @ Grotta D 2-2 1064 1107 22.8% 22.9% 54.3% +1.8 2
2023-05-22 Afturelding D 1-1 1072 1104 45.1% 23.5% 31.4% -1.0 2
2023-05-22 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1104 1072 31.4% 23.5% 45.1% +1.0 7
2023-05-22 Njardvik W 1-0 1119 1059 56.2% 22.7% 21.1% +8.6 7
2023-05-22 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1059 1119 21.1% 22.7% 56.2% -8.6 2
2023-05-26 Afturelding L 2-3 1105 1105 49.2% 23.3% 27.5% -15.4 3
2023-05-26 @ Grotta W 3-2 1105 1105 27.5% 23.3% 49.2% +15.4 10
2023-05-26 IA Akranes L 2-3 1082 1071 50.5% 23.2% 26.3% -15.8 3
2023-05-26 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1071 1082 26.3% 23.2% 50.5% +15.8 5
2023-05-26 Selfoss L 1-3 1109 1044 56.8% 22.6% 20.6% -32.0 1
2023-05-26 @ Aegir W 3-1 1044 1109 20.6% 22.6% 56.8% +32.0 6
2023-05-26 Thor Akureyri W 6-0 1148 1091 55.9% 22.7% 21.3% +45.6 10
2023-05-26 @ Fjolnir L 0-6 1091 1148 21.3% 22.7% 55.9% -45.6 6
2023-05-26 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1050 1041 50.4% 23.2% 26.4% +17.1 5
2023-05-26 @ Njardvik L 1-3 1041 1050 26.4% 23.2% 50.4% -17.0 4
2023-05-27 Grindavik L 0-2 1066 1128 41.0% 23.5% 35.5% -27.9 2
2023-05-27 @ IF Vestri W 2-0 1128 1066 35.5% 23.5% 41.0% +27.9 10
2023-06-01 Afturelding L 0-3 1156 1121 53.5% 23.0% 23.6% -50.7 10
2023-06-01 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1121 1156 23.6% 23.0% 53.5% +50.7 13
2023-06-01 Fjolnir L 1-2 1087 1193 34.7% 23.5% 41.7% -12.3 5
2023-06-01 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1193 1087 41.7% 23.5% 34.7% +12.3 13
2023-06-01 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1076 1024 55.3% 22.8% 21.9% +8.4 9
2023-06-01 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1024 1076 21.9% 22.8% 55.3% -8.4 4
2023-06-02 Aegir W 3-1 1045 1077 45.1% 23.5% 31.4% +19.6 9
2023-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1077 1045 31.4% 23.5% 45.1% -19.6 1
2023-06-02 Leiknir Reykjavik W 5-1 1089 1066 52.1% 23.1% 24.8% +29.6 6
2023-06-02 @ Grotta L 1-5 1066 1089 24.8% 23.1% 52.1% -29.6 3
2023-06-03 Njardvik W 2-0 1038 1068 45.4% 23.4% 31.2% +22.5 5
2023-06-03 @ IF Vestri L 0-2 1068 1038 31.2% 23.4% 45.4% -22.5 5
2023-06-08 Grotta D 2-2 1205 1119 59.0% 22.4% 18.6% -2.4 14
2023-06-08 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1119 1205 18.6% 22.4% 59.0% +2.4 7
2023-06-08 Selfoss D 1-1 1045 1084 44.1% 23.5% 32.4% -0.9 6
2023-06-08 @ Njardvik D 1-1 1084 1045 32.4% 23.5% 44.1% +0.9 10
2023-06-09 IA Akranes L 0-1 1057 1075 47.0% 23.4% 29.6% -16.5 1
2023-06-09 @ Aegir W 1-0 1075 1057 29.6% 23.4% 47.0% +16.5 8
2023-06-10 Grindavik D 2-2 1037 1105 40.1% 23.6% 36.4% -0.2 4
2023-06-10 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1105 1037 36.4% 23.6% 40.1% +0.2 11
2023-06-10 IF Vestri W 3-1 1171 1060 61.4% 22.0% 16.6% +11.4 16
2023-06-10 @ Afturelding L 1-3 1060 1171 16.6% 22.0% 61.4% -11.4 5
2023-06-10 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1016 1065 42.8% 23.5% 33.7% +34.8 7
2023-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 1065 1016 33.7% 23.5% 42.8% -34.8 9
2023-06-15 Aegir W 2-1 1121 1041 58.4% 22.4% 19.1% +7.5 10
2023-06-15 @ Grotta L 1-2 1041 1121 19.1% 22.4% 58.4% -7.5 1
2023-06-15 Fjolnir L 0-1 1105 1203 35.9% 23.5% 40.6% -13.3 11
2023-06-15 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1203 1105 40.6% 23.5% 35.9% +13.3 17
2023-06-16 Njardvik W 7-2 1183 1044 63.8% 21.5% 14.6% +18.8 19
2023-06-16 @ Afturelding L 2-7 1044 1183 14.6% 21.5% 63.8% -18.8 6
2023-06-16 Selfoss W 2-1 1030 1085 41.9% 23.5% 34.5% +12.2 12
2023-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1085 1030 34.5% 23.5% 41.9% -12.2 10
2023-06-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 6-3 1091 1051 54.1% 22.9% 23.0% +17.2 11
2023-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 3-6 1051 1091 23.0% 22.9% 54.1% -17.2 7
2023-06-22 Grindavik L 1-3 1033 1092 41.4% 23.5% 35.0% -24.4 1
2023-06-22 @ Aegir W 3-1 1092 1033 35.0% 23.5% 41.4% +24.3 14
2023-06-22 Grotta W 2-1 1034 1129 36.2% 23.6% 40.2% +13.7 10
2023-06-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1129 1034 40.2% 23.6% 36.2% -13.7 10
2023-06-23 Afturelding D 2-2 1036 1202 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% +1.3 5
2023-06-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1202 1036 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% -1.3 20
2023-06-23 IA Akranes L 3-4 1073 1109 44.6% 23.5% 31.9% -13.8 10
2023-06-23 @ Selfoss W 4-3 1109 1073 31.9% 23.5% 44.6% +13.8 14
2023-06-24 IF Vestri D 1-1 1216 1049 66.2% 21.0% 12.7% -4.4 18
2023-06-24 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1049 1216 12.7% 21.0% 66.2% +4.4 6
2023-06-24 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1025 1042 47.1% 23.4% 29.5% -1.0 7
2023-06-24 @ Njardvik D 2-2 1042 1025 29.5% 23.4% 47.1% +1.0 13
2023-06-28 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1053 1038 51.2% 23.2% 25.7% +10.2 9
2023-06-28 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1038 1053 25.7% 23.2% 51.2% -10.2 5
2023-06-28 Selfoss W 1-0 1115 1059 55.8% 22.8% 21.4% +8.7 13
2023-06-28 @ Grotta L 0-1 1059 1115 21.4% 22.8% 55.8% -8.7 10
2023-06-29 Fjolnir W 4-3 1200 1212 47.8% 23.4% 28.9% +9.8 23
2023-06-29 @ Afturelding L 3-4 1212 1200 28.9% 23.4% 47.8% -9.8 18
2023-06-29 Thor Akureyri W 4-0 1122 1043 58.3% 22.5% 19.3% +28.5 17
2023-06-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1043 1122 19.3% 22.5% 58.3% -28.5 13
2023-06-30 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1116 1047 57.2% 22.6% 20.2% -18.6 14
2023-06-30 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1047 1116 20.2% 22.6% 57.2% +18.6 13
2023-07-02 Aegir L 1-2 1064 1009 55.7% 22.8% 21.6% -18.1 9
2023-07-02 @ IF Vestri W 2-1 1009 1064 21.6% 22.8% 55.7% +18.1 4
2023-07-02 Njardvik W 3-0 1027 1024 49.6% 23.2% 27.1% +29.2 8
2023-07-02 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1024 1027 27.1% 23.2% 49.6% -29.2 7
2023-07-06 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-1 1202 1057 64.4% 21.4% 14.1% +13.8 21
2023-07-06 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 1057 1202 14.1% 21.4% 64.4% -13.8 8
2023-07-07 Afturelding L 1-4 1027 1210 25.1% 23.1% 51.8% -23.1 4
2023-07-07 @ Aegir W 4-1 1210 1027 51.8% 23.1% 25.1% +23.1 26
2023-07-07 Njardvik W 2-1 1151 995 65.3% 21.2% 13.5% +5.4 20
2023-07-07 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 995 1151 13.5% 21.2% 65.3% -5.4 7
2023-07-08 IF Vestri L 1-2 1066 1045 51.7% 23.1% 25.1% -17.0 13
2023-07-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1045 1066 25.1% 23.1% 51.7% +17.0 12
2023-07-12 Aegir W 3-2 1043 1004 53.9% 22.9% 23.1% +8.4 11
2023-07-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1004 1043 23.1% 22.9% 53.9% -8.4 4
2023-07-12 Fjolnir D 1-1 990 1216 20.7% 22.7% 56.6% +2.9 8
2023-07-12 @ Njardvik D 1-1 1216 990 56.6% 22.7% 20.7% -2.9 22
2023-07-12 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1098 1015 58.6% 22.4% 18.9% -3.2 15
2023-07-12 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1015 1098 18.9% 22.4% 58.6% +3.2 14
2023-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1233 1049 67.5% 20.7% 11.8% +5.0 29
2023-07-12 @ Afturelding L 0-1 1049 1233 11.8% 20.7% 67.5% -5.0 13
2023-07-16 Afturelding L 1-3 1018 1238 21.3% 22.7% 56.0% -14.2 14
2023-07-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1238 1018 56.0% 22.7% 21.3% +14.2 32
2023-07-16 Fjolnir D 2-2 1044 1213 26.7% 23.2% 50.1% +1.3 14
2023-07-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1213 1044 50.1% 23.2% 26.7% -1.3 23
2023-07-16 Grindavik W 2-0 1124 1094 52.8% 23.0% 24.2% +18.3 16
2023-07-16 @ Grotta L 0-2 1094 1124 24.2% 23.0% 52.8% -18.3 15
2023-07-16 IF Vestri D 1-1 1156 1062 59.7% 22.2% 18.0% -3.4 21
2023-07-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1062 1156 18.0% 22.2% 59.7% +3.4 13
2023-07-16 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-4 1050 1051 49.1% 23.3% 27.6% -25.1 10
2023-07-16 @ Selfoss W 4-2 1051 1050 27.6% 23.3% 49.1% +25.1 14
2023-07-16 Njardvik W 1-0 995 993 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% +10.7 7
2023-07-16 @ Aegir L 0-1 993 995 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% -10.7 8
2023-07-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1076 1045 53.0% 23.0% 24.0% +8.6 17
2023-07-20 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1045 1076 24.0% 23.0% 53.0% -8.6 14
2023-07-21 Aegir W 5-1 1212 1006 69.1% 20.3% 10.6% +13.4 26
2023-07-21 @ Fjolnir L 1-5 1006 1212 10.6% 20.3% 69.1% -13.4 7
2023-07-21 Grotta L 1-3 982 1142 27.8% 23.3% 48.9% -17.8 8
2023-07-21 @ Njardvik W 3-1 1142 982 48.9% 23.3% 27.8% +17.8 19
2023-07-21 IA Akranes L 0-2 1076 1153 38.9% 23.6% 37.6% -26.8 15
2023-07-21 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1153 1076 37.6% 23.6% 38.9% +26.8 24
2023-07-21 Selfoss W 9-0 1252 1025 70.6% 19.8% 9.6% +31.3 35
2023-07-21 @ Afturelding L 0-9 1025 1252 9.6% 19.8% 70.6% -31.3 10
2023-07-22 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1066 1004 56.5% 22.7% 20.8% +8.5 16
2023-07-22 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1004 1066 20.8% 22.7% 56.5% -8.5 14
2023-07-25 Grindavik W 2-0 994 1049 41.9% 23.5% 34.6% +24.5 13
2023-07-25 @ Selfoss L 0-2 1049 994 34.6% 23.5% 41.9% -24.5 15
2023-07-25 Grotta W 3-1 995 1160 27.2% 23.3% 49.5% +28.3 17
2023-07-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1160 995 49.5% 23.3% 27.2% -28.3 19
2023-07-27 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 993 1037 43.5% 23.5% 33.0% -0.6 8
2023-07-27 @ Aegir D 2-2 1037 993 33.0% 23.5% 43.5% +0.6 15
2023-07-28 IA Akranes L 2-5 1284 1180 60.7% 22.1% 17.2% -41.7 35
2023-07-28 @ Afturelding W 5-2 1180 1284 17.2% 22.1% 60.7% +41.7 27
2023-07-29 Grindavik W 4-1 964 1025 41.1% 23.5% 35.3% +30.4 11
2023-07-29 @ Njardvik L 1-4 1025 964 35.3% 23.5% 41.1% -30.4 15
2023-07-29 Grotta W 3-0 1074 1132 41.6% 23.5% 34.8% +35.7 19
2023-07-29 @ IF Vestri L 0-3 1132 1074 34.8% 23.5% 41.6% -35.7 19
2023-07-29 Selfoss L 2-4 1225 1018 69.2% 20.2% 10.6% -34.4 26
2023-07-29 @ Fjolnir W 4-2 1018 1225 10.6% 20.2% 69.2% +34.4 16
2023-07-29 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1085 1023 56.4% 22.7% 20.9% +8.5 20
2023-07-29 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1023 1085 20.9% 22.7% 56.4% -8.6 17
2023-08-02 Aegir W 3-1 1053 992 56.3% 22.7% 21.0% +14.0 19
2023-08-02 @ Selfoss L 1-3 992 1053 21.0% 22.7% 56.3% -14.0 8
2023-08-02 Fjolnir L 0-1 1015 1191 25.9% 23.2% 50.9% -10.3 17
2023-08-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1191 1015 50.9% 23.2% 25.9% +10.3 29
2023-08-02 Grotta D 1-1 1242 1096 64.5% 21.4% 14.1% -4.2 36
2023-08-02 @ Afturelding D 1-1 1096 1242 14.1% 21.4% 64.5% +4.2 20
2023-08-02 IF Vestri D 1-1 994 1110 33.4% 23.5% 43.0% +0.7 16
2023-08-02 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1110 994 43.0% 23.5% 33.4% -0.7 20
2023-08-02 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-5 1221 1093 62.9% 21.7% 15.4% -64.2 27
2023-08-02 @ IA Akranes W 5-1 1093 1221 15.4% 21.7% 62.9% +64.2 23
2023-08-02 Njardvik L 3-5 1037 995 54.3% 22.9% 22.8% -26.0 15
2023-08-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-3 995 1037 22.8% 22.9% 54.3% +26.0 14
2023-08-08 IA Akranes L 1-3 1100 1157 41.7% 23.5% 34.8% -24.5 20
2023-08-08 @ Grotta W 3-1 1157 1100 34.8% 23.5% 41.7% +24.5 30
2023-08-08 Selfoss W 2-1 1109 1067 54.3% 22.9% 22.8% +8.7 23
2023-08-08 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 1067 1109 22.8% 22.9% 54.3% -8.7 19
2023-08-10 Grindavik L 1-2 1238 995 71.7% 19.5% 8.9% -22.9 36
2023-08-10 @ Afturelding W 2-1 995 1238 8.9% 19.5% 71.7% +22.9 19
2023-08-11 Grotta W 2-1 1158 1076 58.6% 22.4% 19.0% +7.4 26
2023-08-11 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1076 1158 19.0% 22.4% 58.6% -7.4 20
2023-08-11 IA Akranes L 0-1 1201 1182 51.6% 23.1% 25.2% -18.0 29
2023-08-11 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1182 1201 25.2% 23.1% 51.6% +18.0 33
2023-08-11 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 978 1005 45.8% 23.4% 30.8% -14.5 8
2023-08-11 @ Aegir W 3-2 1005 978 30.8% 23.4% 45.8% +14.5 20
2023-08-12 IF Vestri W 2-0 1020 1118 35.9% 23.5% 40.5% +27.6 17
2023-08-12 @ Njardvik L 0-2 1118 1020 40.5% 23.5% 35.9% -27.6 23
2023-08-12 Selfoss W 4-3 1011 1058 43.1% 23.5% 33.4% +11.0 18
2023-08-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 3-4 1058 1011 33.4% 23.5% 43.1% -11.0 19
2023-08-16 Aegir W 4-0 1199 964 71.2% 19.6% 9.2% +13.9 36
2023-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 964 1199 9.2% 19.6% 71.2% -13.9 8
2023-08-16 Afturelding D 2-2 1090 1215 32.2% 23.5% 44.3% +0.7 24
2023-08-16 @ IF Vestri D 2-2 1215 1090 44.3% 23.5% 32.2% -0.7 37
2023-08-16 Fjolnir D 3-3 1068 1183 33.5% 23.5% 43.0% +0.4 21
2023-08-16 @ Grotta D 3-3 1183 1068 43.0% 23.5% 33.5% -0.4 30
2023-08-16 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1018 1165 29.4% 23.4% 47.3% +16.6 22
2023-08-16 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1165 1018 47.3% 23.4% 29.4% -16.6 26
2023-08-16 Njardvik L 2-3 1047 1048 49.1% 23.3% 27.6% -15.4 19
2023-08-16 @ Selfoss W 3-2 1048 1047 27.6% 23.3% 49.1% +15.4 20
2023-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1019 1022 48.8% 23.3% 27.9% +10.3 23
2023-08-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1022 1019 27.9% 23.3% 48.8% -10.3 18
2023-08-20 Afturelding L 1-2 1064 1214 28.9% 23.4% 47.7% -10.6 20
2023-08-20 @ Njardvik W 2-1 1214 1064 47.7% 23.4% 28.9% +10.6 40
2023-08-20 IA Akranes D 1-1 1012 1213 23.2% 22.9% 53.9% +2.4 19
2023-08-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1213 1012 53.9% 22.9% 23.2% -2.4 37
2023-08-20 IF Vestri L 1-2 1148 1091 56.0% 22.7% 21.3% -18.2 26
2023-08-20 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1091 1148 21.3% 22.7% 56.0% +18.2 27
2023-08-20 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1032 1029 49.5% 23.3% 27.2% -1.3 20
2023-08-20 @ Selfoss D 2-2 1029 1032 27.2% 23.3% 49.5% +1.3 24
2023-08-21 Grindavik W 5-1 1183 1035 64.7% 21.4% 14.0% +17.6 33
2023-08-21 @ Fjolnir L 1-5 1035 1183 14.0% 21.4% 64.7% -17.6 22
2023-08-21 Grotta D 2-2 950 1069 33.0% 23.5% 43.5% +0.6 9
2023-08-21 @ Aegir D 2-2 1069 950 43.5% 23.5% 33.0% -0.6 22
2023-08-25 Aegir W 7-2 1017 950 57.0% 22.6% 20.4% +25.6 25
2023-08-25 @ Grindavik L 2-7 950 1017 20.4% 22.6% 57.0% -25.6 9
2023-08-25 Njardvik L 0-3 1031 1053 46.4% 23.4% 30.2% -44.8 24
2023-08-25 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1053 1031 30.2% 23.4% 46.4% +44.8 23
2023-08-25 Selfoss W 1-0 1211 1030 67.3% 20.8% 12.0% +5.1 40
2023-08-25 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1030 1211 12.0% 20.8% 67.3% -5.1 20
2023-08-25 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1068 1014 55.5% 22.8% 21.7% -2.0 23
2023-08-25 @ Grotta D 2-2 1014 1068 21.7% 22.8% 55.5% +2.0 20
2023-08-26 Fjolnir W 3-1 1109 1200 36.8% 23.6% 39.6% +23.5 30
2023-08-26 @ IF Vestri L 1-3 1200 1109 39.6% 23.6% 36.8% -23.5 33
2023-08-26 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1225 1130 59.8% 22.2% 18.0% -38.7 40
2023-08-26 @ Afturelding W 2-0 1130 1225 18.0% 22.2% 59.8% +38.7 29
2023-08-31 Afturelding W 4-2 1177 1186 48.1% 23.3% 28.6% +16.3 36
2023-08-31 @ Fjolnir L 2-4 1186 1177 28.6% 23.3% 48.1% -16.3 40
2023-08-31 Grindavik W 5-0 1016 1043 45.9% 23.4% 30.7% +52.1 23
2023-08-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-5 1043 1016 30.7% 23.4% 45.9% -52.1 25
2023-09-01 Grotta W 1-0 1025 1066 43.9% 23.5% 32.6% +12.4 23
2023-09-01 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1066 1025 32.6% 23.5% 43.9% -12.4 23
2023-09-02 IA Akranes L 2-3 986 1216 20.3% 22.6% 57.1% -7.5 24
2023-09-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1216 986 57.1% 22.6% 20.3% +7.5 43
2023-09-02 IF Vestri L 0-5 925 1133 22.5% 22.9% 54.6% -40.2 9
2023-09-02 @ Aegir W 5-0 1133 925 54.6% 22.9% 22.5% +40.2 33
2023-09-02 Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-4 1098 1169 39.6% 23.6% 36.8% -21.0 23
2023-09-02 @ Njardvik W 4-2 1169 1098 36.8% 23.6% 39.6% +21.0 32
2023-09-09 Aegir W 5-0 1170 884 74.3% 18.5% 7.2% +13.4 43
2023-09-09 @ Afturelding L 0-5 884 1170 7.2% 18.5% 74.3% -13.3 9
2023-09-09 Fjolnir L 1-2 1190 1193 48.9% 23.3% 27.8% -16.1 32
2023-09-09 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1193 1190 27.8% 23.3% 48.9% +16.1 39
2023-09-09 IA Akranes L 2-4 1077 1224 29.4% 23.4% 47.2% -16.6 23
2023-09-09 @ Njardvik W 4-2 1224 1077 47.2% 23.4% 29.4% +16.6 46
2023-09-09 Selfoss W 2-1 991 1038 43.0% 23.5% 33.5% +11.9 28
2023-09-09 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1038 991 33.5% 23.5% 43.0% -11.9 23
2023-09-09 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1054 978 57.9% 22.5% 19.6% +8.1 26
2023-09-09 @ Grotta L 0-1 978 1054 19.6% 22.5% 57.9% -8.1 24
2023-09-09 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1173 1068 60.8% 22.1% 17.1% +6.8 36
2023-09-09 @ IF Vestri L 1-2 1068 1173 17.1% 22.1% 60.8% -6.7 23
2023-09-16 Afturelding W 2-1 1062 1183 32.6% 23.5% 43.9% +14.7 26
2023-09-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1183 1062 43.9% 23.5% 32.6% -14.7 43
2023-09-16 Grindavik W 3-0 970 1002 45.1% 23.5% 31.5% +33.0 27
2023-09-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1002 970 31.5% 23.5% 45.1% -33.0 28
2023-09-16 Grotta W 4-1 1240 1062 67.1% 20.8% 12.1% +11.8 49
2023-09-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1062 1240 12.1% 20.8% 67.1% -11.9 26
2023-09-16 IF Vestri L 1-2 1026 1180 28.5% 23.3% 48.1% -10.5 23
2023-09-16 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1180 1026 48.1% 23.3% 28.5% +10.5 39
2023-09-16 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-5 871 1174 14.5% 21.5% 64.0% -27.0 9
2023-09-16 @ Aegir W 5-0 1174 871 64.0% 21.5% 14.5% +27.0 35
2023-09-16 Njardvik W 4-0 1209 1060 64.8% 21.4% 13.9% +21.0 42
2023-09-16 @ Fjolnir L 0-4 1060 1209 13.9% 21.4% 64.8% -21.0 23

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2023-09-20 Afturelding L 1-2 1184 1186 48.9% 23.3% 27.8% -16.2 0-1
2023-09-20 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1186 1184 27.8% 23.3% 48.9% +16.2 1-0
2023-09-20 Fjolnir W 1-0 1202 1218 47.3% 23.4% 29.3% +11.4 1-0
2023-09-20 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1218 1202 29.3% 23.4% 47.3% -11.4 0-1
2023-09-20 Afturelding L 1-2 1201 1168 53.2% 23.0% 23.8% -17.4 0-2
2023-09-20 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1168 1201 23.8% 23.0% 53.2% +17.4 2-0
2023-09-20 Fjolnir W 1-0 1190 1230 44.0% 23.5% 32.5% +12.3 2-0
2023-09-20 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1230 1190 32.5% 23.5% 44.0% -12.4 0-2
2023-09-24 IF Vestri D 1-1 1205 1215 47.9% 23.3% 28.7% -1.5 0-2-1
2023-09-24 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1215 1205 28.7% 23.3% 47.9% +1.4 2-0-1
2023-09-24 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1228 1141 59.0% 22.4% 18.6% +21.1 3-0
2023-09-24 @ Afturelding L 0-3 1141 1228 18.6% 22.4% 59.0% -21.1 0-3
2023-09-24 IF Vestri D 1-1 1206 1214 48.3% 23.3% 28.4% -1.5 0-2-2
2023-09-24 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1214 1206 28.4% 23.3% 48.3% +1.5 2-0-2
2023-09-24 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1202 1167 53.4% 23.0% 23.6% +26.0 4-0
2023-09-24 @ Afturelding L 0-3 1167 1202 23.6% 23.0% 53.4% -26.0 0-4
2023-09-30 Afturelding W 1-0 1217 1249 33.7% 23.5% 42.8% +15.3 3-0-2
2023-09-30 @ IF Vestri L 0-1 1249 1217 42.8% 23.5% 33.7% -15.3 4-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-08-10 8.90% Grindavik 995 2 @ Afturelding 1238 1
2 2023-07-29 10.56% Selfoss 1018 4 @ Fjolnir 1225 2
3 2023-08-02 15.37% Leiknir Reykjavik 1093 5 @ IA Akranes 1221 1
4 2023-07-28 17.19% IA Akranes 1180 5 @ Afturelding 1284 2
5 2023-08-26 17.96% Leiknir Reykjavik 1130 2 @ Afturelding 1225 0
6 2023-05-12 19.99% Selfoss 1040 3 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1111 2
7 2023-06-30 20.22% Throttur Reykjavik 1047 2 @ Grindavik 1116 1
8 2023-05-26 20.60% Selfoss 1044 3 @ Aegir 1109 1
9 2023-08-20 21.30% IF Vestri 1091 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1148 1
10 2023-07-02 21.55% Aegir 1009 2 @ IF Vestri 1064 1
11 2023-08-02 22.78% Njardvik 995 5 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1037 3
12 2023-06-01 23.57% Afturelding 1121 3 @ Grindavik 1156 0
13 2023-05-05 23.66% Fjolnir 1118 1 @ Aegir 1152 0
14 2023-07-08 25.15% IF Vestri 1045 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1066 1
15 2023-08-11 25.24% IA Akranes 1182 1 @ Fjolnir 1201 0
16 2023-05-05 25.49% Grindavik 1088 2 @ IA Akranes 1105 0
17 2023-05-26 26.27% IA Akranes 1071 3 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1082 2
18 2023-05-05 27.18% Afturelding 1065 3 @ Selfoss 1068 1
19 2023-07-25 27.24% @ Thor Akureyri 995 3 Grotta 1160 1
20 2023-05-26 27.54% Afturelding 1105 3 @ Grotta 1105 2
21 2023-07-16 27.59% Leiknir Reykjavik 1051 4 @ Selfoss 1050 2
22 2023-08-16 27.62% Njardvik 1048 3 @ Selfoss 1047 2
23 2023-09-20 * 27.76% Afturelding 1186 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1184 1
24 2023-09-09 27.84% Fjolnir 1193 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1190 1
25 2023-08-16 29.37% @ Grindavik 1018 1 Leiknir Reykjavik 1165 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-08-02 64.24 Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1093 15.37% @ IA Akranes 1 1221 62.91% 21.73%
2 2023-08-31 52.06 @ Throttur Reykjavik 5 1016 45.85% Grindavik 0 1043 30.72% 23.43%
3 2023-06-01 50.74 Afturelding 3 1121 23.57% @ Grindavik 0 1156 53.46% 22.97%
4 2023-05-26 45.60 @ Fjolnir 6 1148 55.92% Thor Akureyri 0 1091 21.34% 22.74%
5 2023-08-25 44.80 Njardvik 3 1053 30.22% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1031 46.37% 23.41%
6 2023-07-28 41.68 IA Akranes 5 1180 17.19% @ Afturelding 2 1284 60.71% 22.10%
7 2023-09-02 40.17 IF Vestri 5 1133 54.65% @ Aegir 0 925 22.49% 22.86%
8 2023-08-26 38.74 Leiknir Reykjavik 2 1130 17.96% @ Afturelding 0 1225 59.80% 22.24%
9 2023-07-29 35.70 @ IF Vestri 3 1074 41.63% Grotta 0 1132 34.83% 23.54%
10 2023-06-10 34.77 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1016 42.82% Thor Akureyri 0 1065 33.67% 23.52%
11 2023-07-29 34.37 Selfoss 4 1018 10.56% @ Fjolnir 2 1225 69.21% 20.23%
12 2023-05-05 33.71 Grindavik 2 1088 25.49% @ IA Akranes 0 1105 51.37% 23.14%
13 2023-09-16 32.97 @ Thor Akureyri 3 970 45.05% Grindavik 0 1002 31.49% 23.46%
14 2023-05-26 31.96 Selfoss 3 1044 20.60% @ Aegir 1 1109 56.76% 22.64%
15 2023-07-21 31.28 @ Afturelding 9 1252 70.62% Selfoss 0 1025 9.58% 19.80%
16 2023-07-29 30.43 @ Njardvik 4 964 41.14% Grindavik 1 1025 35.31% 23.55%
17 2023-06-02 29.56 @ Grotta 5 1089 52.08% Leiknir Reykjavik 1 1066 24.84% 23.09%
18 2023-07-02 29.21 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1027 49.63% Njardvik 0 1024 27.12% 23.25%
19 2023-06-29 28.46 @ IA Akranes 4 1122 58.28% Thor Akureyri 0 1043 19.27% 22.46%
20 2023-05-05 28.29 Afturelding 3 1065 27.18% @ Selfoss 1 1068 49.56% 23.25%
21 2023-07-25 28.26 @ Thor Akureyri 3 995 27.24% Grotta 1 1160 49.51% 23.26%
22 2023-05-27 27.87 Grindavik 2 1128 35.49% @ IF Vestri 0 1066 40.96% 23.55%
23 2023-08-12 27.64 @ Njardvik 2 1020 35.92% IF Vestri 0 1118 40.53% 23.55%
24 2023-09-16 26.98 Leiknir Reykjavik 5 1174 63.99% @ Aegir 0 871 14.50% 21.51%
25 2023-07-21 26.75 IA Akranes 2 1153 37.57% @ Grindavik 0 1076 38.86% 23.56%