Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1957
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1957 Úrvalsdeild Season

15 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

10 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

4.70 points above expected

10 points · 5.30 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBA Akureyri

3.73 points below expected

2 points · 5.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 5 5 0 0 10 14 2 +12 5.3 +4.70
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 3 1 1 7 7 3 +4 5.0 +1.96
3 Valur Reykjavik 5 2 2 1 6 11 7 +4 5.1 +0.90
4 IB Hafnarfjordur 4 1 1 2 3 5 8 -3 3.7 -0.72
5 KR Reykjavik 5 0 2 3 2 3 10 -7 5.1 -3.10
6 IBA Akureyri 6 0 2 4 2 6 16 -10 5.7 -3.73

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1299 10 5.30 +4.70 100.0% 0 2 4 5 7 8 10
Valur Reykjavik 1280 6 5.10 +0.90 78.7% 0 2 4 5 6 8 10
Fram Reykjavik 1276 7 5.04 +1.96 92.0% 0 2 4 5 6 8 10
KR Reykjavik 1270 2 5.10 -3.10 7.5% 0 2 4 5 6 8 10
IBA Akureyri 1252 2 5.73 -3.73 4.5% 0 3 4 6 7 9 12
IB Hafnarfjordur 1246 3 3.72 -0.72 45.5% 0 1 3 4 5 6 8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IH IA KR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-0-1
1.23
1-0-0
1.44
1-0-0
1.38
1-0-0
1.28
0-1-0
1.30
IA Akranes
1-0-0
1.40
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-0
1.39
1-0-0
1.37
IB Hafnarfjordur
0-0-1
1.20
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-0
1.26
1-0-0
1.18
0-0-1
1.21
IBA Akureyri
0-0-1
1.25
0-0-2
2.40
0-1-0
1.37
 —
0-1-0
1.23
0-0-1
1.22
KR Reykjavik
0-0-1
1.34
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
1.46
0-1-0
1.40
 —
0-1-0
1.31
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-0
1.32
0-0-1
1.25
1-0-0
1.42
1-0-0
1.41
0-1-0
1.31
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%—30.00%
16.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%—23.33%
26.67%3.33%13.33%——3.33%26.67%
36.67%3.33%————10.00%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total30.00%23.33%26.67%10.00%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.53
Mean allowed1.53
StdDev scored1.48
StdDev allowed1.48
Mean total goals/game3.07
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.100
Sample size (games)15
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
120.00%20.00%20.00%———60.00%
240.00%—————40.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total60.00%20.00%20.00%———100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.40
Mean allowed0.60
StdDev scored0.55
StdDev allowed0.89
Mean total goals/game2.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.612
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
120.00%—————20.00%
2—20.00%————20.00%
320.00%—————20.00%
420.00%20.00%————40.00%
5+———————
Total60.00%40.00%————100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.80
Mean allowed0.40
StdDev scored1.30
StdDev allowed0.55
Mean total goals/game3.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.140
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——25.00%25.00%——50.00%
1———————
2——25.00%———25.00%
3—25.00%————25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—25.00%50.00%25.00%——100%

IB Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.25
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored1.50
StdDev allowed0.82
Mean total goals/game3.25
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.816
Games played4
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%16.67%16.67%——50.00%
1———————
2——33.33%——16.67%50.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—16.67%50.00%16.67%—16.67%100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed2.67
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed1.75
Mean total goals/game3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.417
Games played6
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%20.00%——20.00%—60.00%
1———20.00%——20.00%
2——20.00%———20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%—100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.60
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored0.89
StdDev allowed1.58
Mean total goals/game2.60
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.177
Games played5
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%—————20.00%
1—20.00%——20.00%—40.00%
2———————
320.00%—————20.00%
4———————
5+——20.00%———20.00%
Total40.00%20.00%20.00%—20.00%—100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.20
Mean allowed1.40
StdDev scored2.39
StdDev allowed1.67
Mean total goals/game3.60
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.100
Games played5

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 10 5.3 +4.70
2 Fram Reykjavik 7 5.0 +1.96
3 Valur Reykjavik 6 5.1 +0.90
4 IB Hafnarfjordur 3 3.7 -0.72
5 KR Reykjavik 2 5.1 -3.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBA Akureyri 2 5.7 -3.73
2 KR Reykjavik 2 5.1 -3.10
3 IB Hafnarfjordur 3 3.7 -0.72
4 Valur Reykjavik 6 5.1 +0.90
5 Fram Reykjavik 7 5.0 +1.96

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 19 – Aug 25 1 in 205
2 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 12 – Jul 14 1 in 10
3 IB Hafnarfjordur 1 Jul 22 – Jul 22 1 in 4
4 Valur Reykjavik 1 Jun 27 – Jun 27 1 in 3

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 2 Jul 22 – Aug 2 1 in 35
2 IB Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 27 – Jul 21 1 in 8
3 IBA Akureyri 2 May 19 – May 21 1 in 8
4 Valur Reykjavik 1 Jun 13 – Jun 13 1 in 3
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 Aug 25 – Aug 25 1 in 3

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 19 – Aug 25 1 in 5
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 12 – Jul 21 1 in 4
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 27 – Jul 28 1 in 4
4 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 16 – Jul 22 1 in 3
5 IB Hafnarfjordur 1 May 17 – May 17 67%

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 6 May 17 – Jul 28 1 in 8
2 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 12 – Aug 2 1 in 7
3 IB Hafnarfjordur 3 May 17 – Jul 21 1 in 3
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 18 – Jul 22 1 in 2
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 Jul 18 – Jul 18 69%

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
IA Akranes26.03%20.38%18.38%14.98%12.81%7.42%
Fram Reykjavik16.70%19.42%18.06%17.35%15.91%12.56%
Valur Reykjavik17.51%19.32%19.02%17.05%15.56%11.54%
IB Hafnarfjordur3.10%6.70%10.97%17.14%24.64%37.45%
KR Reykjavik14.03%15.72%17.22%18.33%16.72%17.98%
IBA Akureyri22.63%18.46%16.35%15.15%14.36%13.05%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 92.6% 7.4%
Valur Reykjavik 88.5% 11.5%
Fram Reykjavik 87.4% 12.6%
IBA Akureyri 87.0% 13.1%
KR Reykjavik 82.0% 18.0%
IB Hafnarfjordur 62.5% 37.5%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1957-05-17 IBA Akureyri D 2-2 1249 1262 29.4% 37.5% 33.1% +0.0 1
1957-05-17 @ IB Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1262 1249 33.1% 37.5% 29.4% -0.0 1
1957-05-19 IBA Akureyri W 3-0 1286 1262 34.9% 36.9% 28.2% +3.3 3
1957-05-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1262 1286 28.2% 36.9% 34.9% -3.4 1
1957-05-21 IBA Akureyri W 1-0 1289 1259 36.0% 36.4% 27.5% +1.2 6
1957-05-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1259 1289 27.5% 36.4% 36.0% -1.2 1
1957-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1271 1278 30.2% 37.6% 32.2% +1.3 3
1957-06-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1278 1271 32.2% 37.6% 30.2% -1.3 0
1957-06-13 Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1291 1277 33.2% 37.4% 29.3% +2.9 9
1957-06-13 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1277 1291 29.3% 37.4% 33.2% -2.9 0
1957-06-16 IBA Akureyri D 2-2 1277 1258 34.2% 37.2% 28.6% -0.0 1
1957-06-16 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1258 1277 28.6% 37.2% 34.2% +0.0 2
1957-06-27 IB Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1274 1249 35.0% 36.9% 28.1% +3.4 3
1957-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1249 1274 28.1% 36.9% 35.0% -3.3 1
1957-07-14 IBA Akureyri W 2-0 1273 1258 33.5% 37.4% 29.1% +2.4 6
1957-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1258 1273 29.1% 37.4% 33.5% -2.4 2
1957-07-18 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1277 1275 31.4% 37.7% 30.9% +0.0 4
1957-07-18 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1275 1277 30.9% 37.7% 31.4% +0.0 7
1957-07-21 IB Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1275 1246 35.8% 36.5% 27.7% +2.3 10
1957-07-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1246 1275 27.7% 36.5% 35.8% -2.3 1
1957-07-22 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1277 1277 31.1% 37.7% 31.1% +0.0 2
1957-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1277 1277 31.1% 37.7% 31.1% +0.0 5
1957-07-22 IB Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1277 1244 36.5% 36.2% 27.3% -2.4 2
1957-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1244 1277 27.3% 36.2% 36.5% +2.4 4
1957-07-28 IBA Akureyri W 6-2 1277 1255 34.6% 37.0% 28.4% +3.1 8
1957-07-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-6 1255 1277 28.4% 37.0% 34.6% -3.1 2
1957-08-02 IA Akranes L 0-4 1275 1293 28.7% 37.2% 34.0% -4.5 2
1957-08-02 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-0 1293 1275 34.0% 37.2% 28.7% +4.5 12
1957-08-25 IA Akranes L 1-2 1277 1298 28.6% 37.1% 34.3% -1.2 10
1957-08-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1298 1277 34.3% 37.1% 28.6% +1.2 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1957-07-22 27.28% IB Hafnarfjordur 1244 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1277 1
2 1957-06-12 30.18% @ Fram Reykjavik 1271 1 KR Reykjavik 1278 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-08-02 4.46 IA Akranes 4 1293 34.03% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1275 28.75%
2 1957-05-19 3.36 @ IA Akranes 3 1286 34.89% IBA Akureyri 0 1262 28.19%
3 1957-06-27 3.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1274 34.98% IB Hafnarfjordur 0 1249 28.14%
4 1957-07-28 3.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1277 34.56% IBA Akureyri 2 1255 28.40%
5 1957-06-13 2.92 @ IA Akranes 4 1291 33.25% Valur Reykjavik 1 1277 29.31%
6 1957-07-14 2.38 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1273 33.46% IBA Akureyri 0 1258 29.15%
7 1957-07-22 2.36 IB Hafnarfjordur 3 1244 27.28% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1277 36.54%
8 1957-07-21 2.28 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1275 35.80% IB Hafnarfjordur 0 1246 27.66%
9 1957-06-12 1.35 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1271 30.18% KR Reykjavik 0 1278 32.18%
10 1957-05-21 1.21 @ IA Akranes 1 1289 36.05% IBA Akureyri 0 1259 27.53%
11 1957-08-25 1.17 IA Akranes 2 1298 34.32% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1277 28.56%
12 1957-06-16 0.03 IBA Akureyri 2 1258 28.65% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1277 34.17%
13 1957-05-17 0.02 @ IB Hafnarfjordur 2 1249 29.44% IBA Akureyri 2 1262 33.08%
14 1957-07-18 0.00 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1277 31.43% Fram Reykjavik 1 1275 30.87%
15 1957-07-22 0.00 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1277 31.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1277 31.15%