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1973 Úrvalsdeild Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Keflavik IF

26 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1971.0

Relegated

Breidablik

5 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Keflavik IF

5.96 points above expected

26 points · 20.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

4.55 points below expected

5 points · 9.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Keflavik IF Champion 14 12 2 0 26 33 9 +24 20.04 +5.96
2 Valur Reykjavik 14 9 3 2 21 34 20 +14 15.75 +5.25
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 14 8 1 5 17 27 19 +8 15.61 +1.39
4 Fram Reykjavik 14 5 2 7 12 18 23 -5 14.07 -2.07
5 IA Akranes 14 4 3 7 11 32 27 +5 14.78 -3.78
6 IBA Akureyri 14 4 3 7 11 15 29 -14 10.34 +0.66
7 KR Reykjavik 14 3 3 8 9 17 27 -10 11.87 -2.87
8 Breidablik Relegated 14 1 3 10 5 23 45 -22 9.55 -4.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Keflavik IF 1300 26 20.04 +5.96 99.5% 8 15 18 20 22 24 28
Valur Reykjavik 1156 21 15.75 +5.25 97.6% 5 11 14 16 18 20 26
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1120 17 15.61 +1.39 73.2% 3 11 14 16 18 20 26
Fram Reykjavik 990 12 14.07 -2.07 30.3% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
IA Akranes 971 11 14.78 -3.78 14.6% 4 10 13 15 17 20 26
KR Reykjavik 876 9 11.87 -2.87 21.7% 1 7 10 12 14 17 24
IBA Akureyri 868 11 10.34 +0.66 65.7% 0 6 8 10 12 15 21
Breidablik 774 5 9.55 -4.55 7.9% 0 5 8 9 12 14 21

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA IA IV KR KI VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
1.87
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.44
0-0-2
1.56
0-1-1
2.34
0-1-1
0.79
0-0-2
2.12
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.76
 —
1-0-1
2.86
0-1-1
3.92
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
3.36
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
1.80
IA Akranes
1-1-0
3.70
1-0-1
2.76
 —
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
2.24
0-1-1
3.56
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
2.58
IBA Akureyri
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
1.71
1-0-1
1.78
 —
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
1.08
0-0-2
2.04
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.61
 —
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
2.82
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.28
0-0-2
2.26
1-1-0
2.06
0-1-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.17
 —
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
2.59
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
4.86
2-0-0
4.22
2-0-0
3.44
1-1-0
4.55
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.74
 —
2-0-0
3.19
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.59
1-1-0
2.81
2-0-0
3.04
0-0-2
2.44
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.44 +5.9
Allowed 0.82 -6.0
Differential 0.88 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%8.04%6.25%0.89%3.57%0.89%23.21%
18.04%7.14%5.36%7.14%1.79%1.79%31.25%
26.25%5.36%1.79%2.68%—0.89%16.96%
30.89%7.14%2.68%3.57%—1.79%16.07%
43.57%1.79%——1.79%—7.14%
5+0.89%1.79%0.89%1.79%——5.36%
Total23.21%31.25%16.96%16.07%7.14%5.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.78 +0.00
SD 1.72 1.72 2.49
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
1—7.14%14.29%21.43%—7.14%50.00%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
47.14%———7.14%—14.29%
5+———————
Total7.14%7.14%21.43%42.86%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 3.21 -1.57
SD 1.34 2.39 2.77
CV 0.81 0.74 —
Max 4 10 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%————28.57%
1———21.43%7.14%—28.57%
27.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%14.29%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.64 -0.36
SD 1.07 1.22 1.60
CV 0.83 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3—7.14%—14.29%——21.43%
4———————
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total7.14%35.71%21.43%28.57%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.93 +0.36
SD 2.76 1.14 3.05
CV 1.21 0.59 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%—14.29%—42.86%
1—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
27.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%—14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.07 -1.00
SD 1.14 2.09 2.45
CV 1.07 1.01 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%———7.14%28.57%
121.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
2———————
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total28.57%42.86%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.36 +0.57
SD 2.13 1.60 2.68
CV 1.10 1.18 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——28.57%———28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
27.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%35.71%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.93 -0.71
SD 1.05 1.44 1.59
CV 0.87 0.75 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
128.57%—————28.57%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
414.29%7.14%——7.14%—28.57%
5+———————
Total64.29%21.43%7.14%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 0.64 +1.71
SD 1.39 1.15 1.33
CV 0.59 1.79 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%—14.29%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
221.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%——7.14%——14.29%
Total35.71%28.57%7.14%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.43 +1.00
SD 1.87 1.50 2.63
CV 0.77 1.05 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 26 20.04 +5.96
2 Valur Reykjavik 21 15.75 +5.25
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 15.61 +1.39
4 IBA Akureyri 11 10.34 +0.66
5 Fram Reykjavik 12 14.07 -2.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 5 9.55 -4.55
2 IA Akranes 11 14.78 -3.78
3 KR Reykjavik 9 11.87 -2.87
4 Fram Reykjavik 12 14.07 -2.07
5 IBA Akureyri 11 10.34 +0.66

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jun 3 – Jul 22 1 in 237
2 Keflavik IF 9 May 20 – Jul 28 1 in 224
3 IBA Akureyri 4 Jul 7 – Aug 8 1 in 93
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 4 – Jun 13 1 in 5
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 16 – Jun 24 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 3 – Jul 22 1 in 77
2 IA Akranes 3 Jul 22 – Aug 8 1 in 59
3 Breidablik 8 Jun 2 – Aug 11 1 in 57
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 1 – Jul 28 1 in 35
5 IBA Akureyri 5 May 27 – Jun 30 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 5 Jul 7 – Aug 11 1 in 35
2 Keflavik IF 14 May 20 – Sep 16 1 in 27
3 Breidablik 2 Sep 8 – Sep 16 1 in 9
4 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 13 – Sep 17 1 in 5
5 KR Reykjavik 3 May 21 – Jun 2 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 12 Jun 2 – Sep 16 1 in 17
2 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 3 – Jul 22 1 in 10
3 Valur Reykjavik 3 Sep 9 – Sep 17 1 in 9
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 1 – Jul 28 1 in 7
5 IBA Akureyri 6 May 19 – Jun 30 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Keflavik IF70.67%17.46%6.93%3.05%1.31%0.45%0.11%0.02%
Valur Reykjavik10.19%25.94%23.15%17.63%12.43%6.81%2.82%1.03%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar8.38%23.88%22.61%18.59%13.63%7.52%4.07%1.32%
Fram Reykjavik3.77%11.11%15.48%19.22%21.09%15.55%9.50%4.28%
IA Akranes5.93%16.31%20.25%20.59%16.41%11.07%6.52%2.92%
IBA Akureyri0.27%1.20%3.10%5.80%10.62%19.39%29.48%30.14%
KR Reykjavik0.68%3.40%6.48%11.47%17.23%24.74%21.77%14.23%
Breidablik0.11%0.70%2.00%3.65%7.28%14.47%25.73%46.06%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.43%
Clear Edge
51.79%17.86%30.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge
196 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
075.62500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.62 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
71%
Keflavik IF, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.38 * Some Luck: 2.38 to 3.56 * Lucky: 3.56 to 4.75 * Wild Swing: 4.75 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1 * Close: 1 to 1.5 * Off: 1.5 to 2 * Way Off: 2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.54 * A Surprise: 0.54 to 0.86 * Several Surprises: 0.86 to 1.19 * Many Surprises: 1.19 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.76 points
Lucky
02.977
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
01.253
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.50%
Keflavik IF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.90%
Breidablik
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.84
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.68
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.21 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.21 to 0.31 * Above Noise: 0.31 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.39
Very Underconfident
0.4975341.001.50247
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.114
Well Within Noise
00.2050.5

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Keflavik IF 99.98% 0.02%
Valur Reykjavik 98.97% 1.03%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 98.68% 1.32%
IA Akranes 97.08% 2.92%
Fram Reykjavik 95.72% 4.28%
KR Reykjavik 85.77% 14.23%
IBA Akureyri 69.86% 30.14%
Breidablik 53.94% 46.06%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1973-05-19 IBA Akureyri D 0-0 1051 960 65.4% 18.8% 15.8% -7.1 1
1973-05-19 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 960 1051 15.8% 18.8% 65.4% +7.1 1
1973-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 969 993 54.0% 18.9% 27.1% -46.3 0
1973-05-20 @ Breidablik W 3-1 993 969 27.1% 18.9% 54.0% +46.3 2
1973-05-20 IA Akranes W 4-1 1032 1013 58.8% 18.9% 22.3% +30.9 2
1973-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-4 1013 1032 22.3% 18.9% 58.8% -30.9 0
1973-05-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 976 1062 46.1% 18.9% 35.0% +18.4 2
1973-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1062 976 35.0% 18.9% 46.1% -18.5 0
1973-05-26 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 982 994 55.4% 18.9% 25.7% -3.6 1
1973-05-26 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 994 982 25.7% 18.9% 55.4% +3.6 3
1973-05-26 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1043 1044 56.7% 18.9% 24.4% +14.5 2
1973-05-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1044 1043 24.4% 18.9% 56.7% -14.4 1
1973-05-26 Keflavik IF L 0-4 1040 1063 54.1% 18.9% 27.0% -101.6 2
1973-05-26 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-0 1063 1040 27.0% 18.9% 54.1% +101.6 4
1973-05-27 IBA Akureyri W 4-0 923 967 51.6% 18.9% 29.4% +60.6 2
1973-05-27 @ Breidablik L 0-4 967 923 29.4% 18.9% 51.6% -60.6 1
1973-06-02 IBA Akureyri W 1-0 1164 906 75.1% 18.2% 6.7% +4.4 6
1973-06-02 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 906 1164 6.7% 18.2% 75.1% -4.4 1
1973-06-02 Breidablik W 2-0 998 984 58.2% 18.9% 22.9% +25.8 5
1973-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 984 998 22.9% 18.9% 58.2% -25.8 2
1973-06-03 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1023 938 65.0% 18.8% 16.3% -64.1 5
1973-06-03 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 938 1023 16.3% 18.8% 65.0% +64.1 4
1973-06-04 Breidablik W 2-1 1029 958 63.8% 18.8% 17.4% +10.1 3
1973-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 958 1029 17.4% 18.8% 63.8% -10.1 2
1973-06-13 IA Akranes W 1-0 1058 978 64.5% 18.8% 16.8% +10.4 4
1973-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 978 1058 16.8% 18.8% 64.5% -10.4 1
1973-06-13 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 959 1039 46.9% 18.9% 34.2% -47.0 5
1973-06-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1039 959 34.2% 18.9% 46.9% +47.0 5
1973-06-16 Breidablik W 10-1 968 948 58.9% 18.9% 22.2% +84.3 3
1973-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-10 948 968 22.2% 18.9% 58.9% -84.3 2
1973-06-16 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1068 1169 44.1% 18.9% 37.0% -23.7 4
1973-06-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1169 1068 37.0% 18.9% 44.1% +23.6 8
1973-06-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 902 1002 44.1% 18.9% 37.0% -22.3 1
1973-06-16 @ IBA Akureyri W 2-1 1002 902 37.0% 18.9% 44.1% +22.3 6
1973-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 864 1044 32.9% 18.9% 48.2% -30.4 2
1973-06-23 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1044 864 48.2% 18.9% 32.9% +30.4 6
1973-06-24 IA Akranes L 2-6 879 1052 34.0% 18.9% 47.1% -48.3 1
1973-06-24 @ IBA Akureyri W 6-2 1052 879 47.1% 18.9% 34.0% +48.3 5
1973-06-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1192 912 76.0% 18.1% 5.9% +7.3 10
1973-06-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 912 1192 5.9% 18.1% 76.0% -7.4 5
1973-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1100 1024 64.2% 18.8% 17.1% -33.6 5
1973-06-30 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1024 1100 17.1% 18.8% 64.2% +33.6 8
1973-06-30 IBA Akureyri W 4-0 1075 831 74.6% 18.3% 7.2% +16.9 8
1973-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 831 1075 7.2% 18.3% 74.6% -16.8 1
1973-07-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1200 1086 67.1% 18.7% 14.2% +14.5 12
1973-07-01 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1086 1200 14.2% 18.7% 67.1% -14.5 5
1973-07-06 Keflavik IF L 0-3 833 1214 13.1% 18.4% 68.5% -22.6 2
1973-07-06 @ Breidablik W 3-0 1214 833 68.5% 18.4% 13.1% +22.6 14
1973-07-07 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1067 1072 56.2% 18.9% 24.9% +24.0 7
1973-07-07 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1072 1067 24.9% 18.9% 56.2% -24.0 5
1973-07-07 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 814 905 45.4% 18.9% 35.6% +18.7 3
1973-07-07 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-2 905 814 35.6% 18.9% 45.4% -18.7 5
1973-07-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-0 1058 1091 52.9% 18.9% 28.2% +85.6 10
1973-07-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-6 1091 1058 28.2% 18.9% 52.9% -85.6 8
1973-07-22 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1091 1237 37.6% 18.9% 43.4% -19.6 7
1973-07-22 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1237 1091 43.4% 18.9% 37.6% +19.6 16
1973-07-22 KR Reykjavik W 6-3 1006 886 67.6% 18.7% 13.7% +16.0 10
1973-07-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-6 886 1006 13.7% 18.7% 67.6% -16.0 5
1973-07-22 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 833 1048 28.6% 18.8% 52.6% +45.1 5
1973-07-22 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-3 1048 833 52.6% 18.8% 28.6% -45.1 5
1973-07-22 Breidablik W 6-3 1144 811 77.7% 17.9% 4.4% +5.5 12
1973-07-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-6 811 1144 4.4% 17.9% 77.7% -5.4 2
1973-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1003 1022 54.5% 18.9% 26.5% -28.6 5
1973-07-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1022 1003 26.5% 18.9% 54.5% +28.6 12
1973-07-28 Valur Reykjavik W 4-0 1256 1149 66.7% 18.7% 14.6% +32.8 18
1973-07-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-4 1149 1256 14.6% 18.7% 66.7% -32.8 12
1973-07-29 Breidablik W 3-1 878 805 63.9% 18.8% 17.3% +17.4 7
1973-07-29 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-3 805 878 17.3% 18.8% 63.9% -17.4 2
1973-07-29 IA Akranes W 3-1 870 1071 30.3% 18.9% 50.8% +43.8 7
1973-07-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1071 870 50.8% 18.9% 30.3% -43.8 7
1973-08-08 IBA Akureyri L 0-2 1027 895 68.5% 18.6% 12.9% -67.8 7
1973-08-08 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 895 1027 12.9% 18.6% 68.5% +67.8 9
1973-08-11 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 788 974 32.2% 18.9% 48.9% -17.2 2
1973-08-11 @ Breidablik W 2-1 974 788 48.9% 18.9% 32.2% +17.2 7
1973-08-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 960 1050 45.4% 18.9% 35.6% +19.9 9
1973-08-11 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1050 960 35.6% 18.9% 45.4% -19.9 12
1973-08-11 Keflavik IF D 0-0 963 1289 17.2% 18.6% 64.2% +6.6 10
1973-08-11 @ IBA Akureyri D 0-0 1289 963 64.2% 18.6% 17.2% -6.6 19
1973-08-13 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1116 914 72.6% 18.4% 8.9% +10.9 14
1973-08-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 914 1116 8.9% 18.4% 72.6% -10.9 7
1973-08-18 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 991 903 65.2% 18.8% 16.0% +16.3 9
1973-08-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 903 991 16.0% 18.8% 65.2% -16.3 7
1973-08-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1282 1031 74.9% 18.2% 6.9% +4.5 21
1973-08-18 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1031 1282 6.9% 18.2% 74.9% -4.5 12
1973-08-18 IBA Akureyri W 2-0 1127 970 70.1% 18.6% 11.3% +13.7 16
1973-08-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 970 1127 11.3% 18.6% 70.1% -13.6 10
1973-08-19 IA Akranes D 3-3 771 980 29.3% 18.8% 51.8% +1.7 3
1973-08-19 @ Breidablik D 3-3 980 771 51.8% 18.8% 29.3% -1.7 10
1973-09-01 Breidablik W 3-2 1026 772 75.0% 18.2% 6.8% +4.0 14
1973-09-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 772 1026 6.8% 18.2% 75.0% -4.0 3
1973-09-01 Keflavik IF L 2-3 887 1287 11.9% 18.3% 69.8% -6.7 7
1973-09-01 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1287 887 69.8% 18.3% 11.9% +6.7 23
1973-09-02 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1141 1008 68.6% 18.6% 12.8% +18.7 18
1973-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1008 1141 12.8% 18.6% 68.6% -18.7 9
1973-09-07 IA Akranes W 3-2 989 978 57.9% 18.9% 23.2% +12.4 11
1973-09-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 978 989 23.2% 18.9% 57.9% -12.4 10
1973-09-08 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 768 880 42.5% 18.9% 38.6% -0.5 4
1973-09-08 @ Breidablik D 1-1 880 768 38.6% 18.9% 42.5% +0.5 8
1973-09-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-6 956 1030 47.7% 18.9% 33.4% -92.5 10
1973-09-08 @ IBA Akureyri W 6-1 1030 956 33.4% 18.9% 47.7% +92.5 16
1973-09-09 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1001 1294 20.2% 18.7% 61.1% -12.2 11
1973-09-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1294 1001 61.1% 18.7% 20.2% +12.2 25
1973-09-09 IA Akranes D 3-3 1160 965 72.2% 18.4% 9.3% -5.1 19
1973-09-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 965 1160 9.3% 18.4% 72.2% +5.1 11
1973-09-14 IBA Akureyri D 1-1 880 864 58.5% 18.9% 22.6% -4.4 9
1973-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 864 880 22.6% 18.9% 58.5% +4.4 11
1973-09-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1123 1155 53.0% 18.9% 28.0% -3.0 17
1973-09-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1155 1123 28.0% 18.9% 53.0% +3.0 20
1973-09-16 Breidablik D 4-4 1306 768 81.9% 16.6% 1.5% -5.9 26
1973-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 4-4 768 1306 1.5% 16.6% 81.9% +5.9 5
1973-09-17 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 989 1158 34.5% 18.9% 46.6% +1.1 12
1973-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1158 989 46.6% 18.9% 34.5% -1.0 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1973-08-08 12.88% IBA Akureyri 895 2 @ IA Akranes 1027 0
2 1973-06-03 16.28% Valur Reykjavik 938 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1023 0
3 1973-06-30 17.05% Valur Reykjavik 1024 1 @ IA Akranes 1100 0
4 1973-07-28 26.53% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1022 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1003 0
5 1973-05-26 26.96% Keflavik IF 1063 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1040 0
6 1973-05-20 27.09% Valur Reykjavik 993 3 @ Breidablik 969 1
7 1973-07-22 28.61% @ IBA Akureyri 833 3 Fram Reykjavik 1048 1
8 1973-07-29 30.30% @ KR Reykjavik 870 3 IA Akranes 1071 1
9 1973-09-08 33.35% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1030 6 @ IBA Akureyri 956 1
10 1973-06-13 34.19% Fram Reykjavik 1039 2 @ KR Reykjavik 959 0
11 1973-06-16 36.99% Valur Reykjavik 1002 2 @ IBA Akureyri 902 1
12 1973-06-16 37.00% Keflavik IF 1169 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1068 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1973-05-26 101.60 Keflavik IF 4 1063 26.96% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1040 54.12% 18.92%
2 1973-09-08 92.46 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1030 33.35% @ IBA Akureyri 1 956 47.70% 18.94%
3 1973-07-07 85.60 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1058 52.86% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1091 28.21% 18.93%
4 1973-06-16 84.32 @ IA Akranes 10 968 58.87% Breidablik 1 948 22.25% 18.87%
5 1973-08-08 67.81 IBA Akureyri 2 895 12.88% @ IA Akranes 0 1027 68.48% 18.64%
6 1973-06-03 64.14 Valur Reykjavik 2 938 16.28% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1023 64.96% 18.76%
7 1973-05-27 60.62 @ Breidablik 4 923 51.63% IBA Akureyri 0 967 29.44% 18.93%
8 1973-06-24 48.28 IA Akranes 6 1052 47.13% @ IBA Akureyri 2 879 33.97% 18.89%
9 1973-06-13 47.02 Fram Reykjavik 2 1039 34.19% @ KR Reykjavik 0 959 46.87% 18.94%
10 1973-05-20 46.28 Valur Reykjavik 3 993 27.09% @ Breidablik 1 969 53.99% 18.92%
11 1973-07-22 45.09 @ IBA Akureyri 3 833 28.61% Fram Reykjavik 1 1048 52.56% 18.83%
12 1973-07-29 43.75 @ KR Reykjavik 3 870 30.30% IA Akranes 1 1071 50.85% 18.85%
13 1973-06-30 33.59 Valur Reykjavik 1 1024 17.05% @ IA Akranes 0 1100 64.17% 18.78%
14 1973-07-28 32.78 @ Keflavik IF 4 1256 66.69% Valur Reykjavik 0 1149 14.61% 18.71%
15 1973-05-20 30.89 @ Keflavik IF 4 1032 58.79% IA Akranes 1 1013 22.34% 18.87%
16 1973-06-23 30.36 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1044 48.20% @ Breidablik 1 864 32.92% 18.88%
17 1973-07-28 28.62 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1022 26.53% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1003 54.55% 18.92%
18 1973-06-02 25.76 @ KR Reykjavik 2 998 58.23% Breidablik 0 984 22.89% 18.88%
19 1973-07-07 24.01 @ IA Akranes 3 1067 56.18% Fram Reykjavik 1 1072 24.91% 18.90%
20 1973-06-16 23.65 Keflavik IF 1 1169 37.00% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1068 44.06% 18.94%
21 1973-07-06 22.60 Keflavik IF 3 1214 68.51% @ Breidablik 0 833 13.11% 18.38%
22 1973-06-16 22.30 Valur Reykjavik 2 1002 36.99% @ IBA Akureyri 1 902 44.07% 18.94%
23 1973-08-11 19.87 @ IA Akranes 1 960 45.41% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1050 35.65% 18.94%
24 1973-07-22 19.58 Keflavik IF 2 1237 43.43% @ IA Akranes 1 1091 37.65% 18.92%
25 1973-09-02 18.73 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1141 68.57% Fram Reykjavik 1 1008 12.79% 18.64%