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1995 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

49 points · 13th Title

Last Title: 1994.0

Relegated

Fram Reykjavik

12 pts

FH Hafnarfjordur · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

8.40 points above expected

49 points · 40.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FH Hafnarfjordur

7.52 points below expected

15 points · 22.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 16 1 1 49 50 15 +35 40.60 +8.40
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 2 5 35 33 22 +11 30.63 +4.37
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 10 1 7 31 41 29 +12 30.95 +0.05
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 8 4 26 28 29 -1 30.80 -4.80
5 IF Leiftur 18 7 3 8 24 32 34 -2 19.15 +4.85
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 29 -3 20.28 +2.72
7 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 34 -8 20.14 +2.86
8 Breidablik 18 5 3 10 18 24 31 -7 24.15 -6.15
9 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 26 42 -16 22.52 -7.52
10 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 3 12 12 18 39 -21 16.30 -4.30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 49 40.60 +8.40
2 IF Leiftur 24 19.15 +4.85
3 KR Reykjavik 35 30.63 +4.37
4 Valur Reykjavik 23 20.14 +2.86
5 Grindavik 23 20.28 +2.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 22.52 -7.52
2 Breidablik 18 24.15 -6.15
3 Keflavik IF 26 30.80 -4.80
4 Fram Reykjavik 12 16.30 -4.30
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 30.95 +0.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 106
2 IF Leiftur 3 Jun 22 – Jul 6 1 in 88
3 IA Akranes 12 May 23 – Aug 12 1 in 86
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 27 – Sep 2 1 in 27
5 Grindavik 2 Jul 6 – Jul 16 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jun 5 – Jul 17 1 in 510
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 28
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 20 – Aug 12 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Jun 5 – Jun 15 1 in 10
5 Breidablik 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 12 – Sep 9 1 in 71
2 IF Leiftur 5 Jun 22 – Jul 26 1 in 42
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 10
4 Grindavik 3 Jul 6 – Jul 20 1 in 10
5 IA Akranes 13 May 23 – Aug 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 14 Jun 5 – Sep 9 1 in 561
2 Keflavik IF 7 Aug 3 – Sep 9 1 in 331
3 IA Akranes 2 Aug 19 – Aug 31 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 May 27 – Jun 15 1 in 11
5 Breidablik 4 Jul 6 – Jul 26 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1811 49 +34 12 11.6 +0.4
KR Reykjavik 1597 35 +51 10 8.0 +2.0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1557 31 +5 9 8.6 +0.4
Keflavik IF 1498 26 -1 7 9.2 -2.2
IF Leiftur 1337 24 -94 3 6.5 -3.5
Valur Reykjavik 1462 23 +118 12 5.7 +6.3
Grindavik 1422 23 +7 6 6.1 -0.1
Breidablik 1340 18 -79 4 6.7 -2.7
FH Hafnarfjordur 1309 15 +23 7 4.7 +2.3
Fram Reykjavik 1227 12 -64 1 4.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-2
4.04
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
3.66
0-0-2
1.93
0-2-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.41
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.55
 —
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.44
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
2.43
1-1-0
2.39
0-1-1
1.73
0-0-2
3.73
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
1.64
1-0-1
2.42
 —
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
0.63
0-1-1
1.25
0-0-2
3.23
0-0-2
1.33
0-1-1
1.37
0-0-2
2.55
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
3.25
 —
0-0-2
0.83
1-0-1
1.72
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.66
1-0-1
2.61
IA Akranes
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.35
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.86
 —
2-0-0
4.33
1-1-0
4.89
1-0-1
4.27
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
4.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.65
1-1-0
4.43
1-0-1
3.95
0-0-2
1.35
 —
1-0-1
4.27
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
3.27
IF Leiftur
2-0-0
2.01
0-1-1
3.24
2-0-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
0.80
1-0-1
1.41
 —
0-0-2
1.87
0-1-1
1.89
1-0-1
2.81
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
3.28
2-0-0
4.35
1-0-1
4.18
1-0-1
1.41
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.80
 —
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.95
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.95
1-1-0
4.31
2-0-0
4.01
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.78
0-1-1
2.63
 —
0-2-0
4.16
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.27
2-0-0
1.95
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
1.73
0-2-0
1.52
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.8
Allowed 0.87 -12.8
Differential 0.97 +6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%7.22%3.89%3.33%1.67%—19.44%
17.22%4.44%10.00%6.11%1.67%1.11%30.56%
23.89%10.00%6.67%3.89%1.67%0.56%26.67%
33.33%6.11%3.89%1.11%—1.11%15.56%
41.67%1.67%1.67%———5.00%
5+—1.11%0.56%1.11%——2.78%
Total19.44%30.56%26.67%15.56%5.00%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.69 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.03
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1—11.11%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.24 1.36 1.54
CV 0.93 0.79 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
15.56%—11.11%11.11%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.33 -0.89
SD 0.86 1.41 1.53
CV 0.59 0.61 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%—50.00%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.17 -1.17
SD 0.84 1.34 1.76
CV 0.84 0.62 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%—22.22%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total27.78%11.11%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.61 -0.17
SD 1.46 1.24 1.86
CV 1.01 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—————16.67%
216.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.83 +1.94
SD 1.70 0.92 1.63
CV 0.61 1.11 —
Max 8 3 +6
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
3—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.61 +0.67
SD 2.11 1.46 2.54
CV 0.93 0.91 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
2—16.67%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.89 -0.11
SD 1.11 1.08 2.00
CV 0.63 0.57 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%—5.56%———16.67%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.22 +0.61
SD 1.34 0.81 1.38
CV 0.73 0.66 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%22.22%————33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.10 1.85 1.73
CV 0.70 1.15 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.89 -0.44
SD 1.29 1.91 2.59
CV 0.90 1.01 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1811 49 40.60 +8.40 97.0% 24 32 37 40 44 48 54
KR Reykjavik 1597 35 30.63 +4.37 77.0% 17 22 26 31 35 39 43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1557 31 30.95 +0.05 54.0% 13 17 27 30 35 42 45
Keflavik IF 1498 26 30.80 -4.80 20.0% 19 21 27 30 35 40 45
Valur Reykjavik 1462 23 20.14 +2.86 75.0% 9 10 16 20 23 29 37
Grindavik 1422 23 20.28 +2.72 69.0% 7 11 16 20 25 28 36
Breidablik 1340 18 24.15 -6.15 16.0% 11 15 21 24 28 32 42
IF Leiftur 1337 24 19.15 +4.85 87.0% 8 12 15 19 22 27 31
FH Hafnarfjordur 1309 15 22.52 -7.52 7.0% 10 15 19 22 25 31 35
Fram Reykjavik 1227 12 16.30 -4.30 26.0% 7 8 12 16 19 25 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Clear Edge
48.89%15.56%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
238 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.38 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
74%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.78/gm
Runaway
00.351.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.36 * Some Luck: 4.36 to 6.54 * Lucky: 6.54 to 8.72 * Wild Swing: 8.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.95 * A Surprise: 0.95 to 1.52 * Several Surprises: 1.52 to 2.09 * Many Surprises: 2.09 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.14 points
Some Luck
05.4514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 170.12
1.82
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
76%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.99
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.83
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.118
Well Within Noise
00.1690.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes74.00%18.00%6.00%1.00%——1.00%———
KR Reykjavik7.00%30.00%21.00%18.00%11.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%——
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.00%29.00%23.00%18.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
Keflavik IF9.00%17.00%28.00%20.00%12.00%8.00%2.00%4.00%——
IF Leiftur—1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%13.00%17.00%27.00%16.00%15.00%
Grindavik—1.00%2.00%11.00%12.00%11.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%15.00%
Valur Reykjavik——3.00%9.00%9.00%14.00%18.00%11.00%20.00%16.00%
Breidablik1.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%22.00%21.00%14.00%10.00%7.00%4.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——6.00%8.00%17.00%19.00%18.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%
Fram Reykjavik——1.00%3.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%13.00%27.00%42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
KR Reykjavik 100% —
Keflavik IF 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 97.00% 3.00%
Breidablik 89.00% 11.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 81.00% 19.00%
Grindavik 69.00% 31.00%
IF Leiftur 69.00% 31.00%
Valur Reykjavik 64.00% 36.00%
Fram Reykjavik 31.00% 69.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-05-23 IF Leiftur L 0-443.2 1448 1224 71.36% 15.78% 12.86%+1.14 -124.6 0
1995-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-043.2 1224 1448 12.86% 15.78% 71.36%-1.14 +124.6 3
1995-05-23 Keflavik IF L 1-244.4 1331 1514 24.34% 16.31% 59.34%-0.57 -12.5 0
1995-05-23 @ Grindavik W 2-144.4 1514 1331 59.34% 16.31% 24.34%+0.57 +12.5 3
1995-05-23 Breidablik W 2-040.8 1621 1437 68.38% 15.97% 15.65%+0.97 +16.6 3
1995-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-240.8 1437 1621 15.65% 15.97% 68.38%-0.97 -16.6 0
1995-05-23 Valur Reykjavik W 8-143.3 1453 1477 44.86% 16.49% 38.64%+0.09 +98.5 3
1995-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-843.3 1477 1453 38.64% 16.49% 44.86%-0.09 -98.5 0
1995-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-152.0 1499 1556 40.29% 16.50% 43.21%-0.04 -20.5 0
1995-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-052.0 1556 1499 43.21% 16.50% 40.29%+0.04 +20.5 3
1995-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 2-144.9 1420 1379 53.71% 16.42% 29.87%+0.37 +14.9 3
1995-05-27 @ Breidablik L 1-244.9 1379 1420 29.87% 16.42% 53.71%-0.37 -14.9 0
1995-05-27 Grindavik W 2-033.3 1576 1319 73.54% 15.60% 10.86%+1.28 +11.8 6
1995-05-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-233.3 1319 1576 10.86% 15.60% 73.54%-1.28 -11.8 0
1995-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-057.0 1323 1551 19.80% 16.17% 64.03%-0.76 +5.8 1
1995-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-057.0 1551 1323 64.03% 16.17% 19.80%+0.76 -5.8 4
1995-05-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-245.7 1348 1479 30.38% 16.43% 53.19%-0.35 -15.1 3
1995-05-27 @ IF Leiftur W 2-145.7 1479 1348 53.19% 16.43% 30.38%+0.35 +15.2 3
1995-05-27 IA Akranes L 0-153.2 1527 1638 32.84% 16.46% 50.71%-0.27 -17.2 3
1995-05-27 @ Keflavik IF W 1-053.2 1638 1527 50.71% 16.46% 32.84%+0.27 +17.2 6
1995-06-05 IF Leiftur W 3-250.1 1307 1333 44.72% 16.49% 38.79%+0.09 +17.7 3
1995-06-05 @ Grindavik L 2-350.1 1333 1307 38.79% 16.49% 44.72%-0.09 -17.7 3
1995-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-154.3 1655 1588 56.77% 16.37% 26.86%+0.48 +23.6 9
1995-06-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-354.3 1588 1655 26.86% 16.37% 56.77%-0.48 -23.6 6
1995-06-05 Breidablik L 2-364.9 1545 1435 61.54% 16.25% 22.20%+0.66 -26.8 4
1995-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-264.9 1435 1545 22.20% 16.25% 61.54%-0.66 +26.8 6
1995-06-05 Fram Reykjavik W 3-138.3 1494 1329 66.78% 16.05% 17.16%+0.89 +15.7 6
1995-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-338.3 1329 1494 17.16% 16.05% 66.78%-0.89 -15.7 1
1995-06-06 Keflavik IF D 0-056.9 1364 1509 28.57% 16.40% 55.03%-0.42 +3.4 1
1995-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-056.9 1509 1364 55.03% 16.40% 28.57%+0.42 -3.4 4
1995-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 2-365.4 1565 1367 69.42% 15.91% 14.67%+1.02 -30.3 6
1995-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-265.4 1367 1565 14.67% 15.91% 69.42%-1.02 +30.3 4
1995-06-14 IA Akranes L 0-236.6 1315 1679 10.18% 15.52% 74.29%-1.33 -11.0 3
1995-06-14 @ IF Leiftur W 2-036.6 1679 1315 74.29% 15.52% 10.18%+1.33 +11.0 12
1995-06-14 Grindavik W 2-141.3 1510 1325 68.42% 15.97% 15.61%+0.97 +8.3 9
1995-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-241.3 1325 1510 15.61% 15.97% 68.42%-0.97 -8.3 3
1995-06-15 Breidablik W 1-047.6 1313 1462 28.15% 16.39% 55.45%-0.43 +27.1 4
1995-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-147.6 1462 1313 55.45% 16.39% 28.15%+0.43 -27.1 6
1995-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-049.8 1506 1518 46.57% 16.49% 36.94%+0.14 +19.0 7
1995-06-15 @ Keflavik IF L 0-149.8 1518 1506 36.94% 16.49% 46.57%-0.14 -19.0 4
1995-06-21 Keflavik IF D 1-163.4 1435 1525 35.68% 16.48% 47.84%-0.18 +1.3 7
1995-06-21 @ Breidablik D 1-163.4 1525 1435 47.84% 16.48% 35.68%+0.18 -1.4 8
1995-06-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-261.3 1317 1340 45.02% 16.49% 38.49%+0.10 -0.5 4
1995-06-22 @ Grindavik D 2-261.3 1340 1317 38.49% 16.49% 45.02%-0.10 +0.5 5
1995-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-045.4 1690 1518 67.35% 16.03% 16.62%+0.92 +17.6 15
1995-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-245.4 1518 1690 16.62% 16.03% 67.35%-0.92 -17.6 9
1995-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-354.6 1499 1534 43.41% 16.50% 40.09%+0.05 +37.7 7
1995-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-654.6 1534 1499 40.09% 16.50% 43.41%-0.05 -37.7 6
1995-06-22 IF Leiftur L 1-252.1 1397 1304 59.76% 16.30% 23.93%+0.59 -27.5 4
1995-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-152.1 1304 1397 23.93% 16.30% 59.76%-0.59 +27.5 6
1995-06-25 Breidablik L 2-457.7 1497 1436 56.00% 16.38% 27.62%+0.45 -40.0 6
1995-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-257.7 1436 1497 27.62% 16.38% 56.00%-0.45 +40.0 10
1995-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-245.5 1316 1707 8.83% 15.35% 75.82%-1.45 -4.8 4
1995-06-25 @ Grindavik W 2-145.5 1707 1316 75.82% 15.35% 8.83%+1.45 +4.8 18
1995-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-156.2 1332 1537 21.97% 16.25% 61.78%-0.67 +28.4 9
1995-06-25 @ IF Leiftur L 1-256.2 1537 1332 61.78% 16.25% 21.97%+0.67 -28.4 7
1995-06-25 Valur Reykjavik W 1-039.3 1500 1370 63.60% 16.19% 20.22%+0.74 +11.2 12
1995-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-139.3 1370 1500 20.22% 16.19% 63.60%-0.74 -11.2 4
1995-07-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-041.4 1524 1457 56.78% 16.37% 26.85%+0.48 +27.2 11
1995-07-05 @ Keflavik IF L 0-241.4 1457 1524 26.85% 16.37% 56.78%-0.48 -27.2 6
1995-07-06 IF Leiftur L 1-255.4 1476 1360 62.19% 16.23% 21.57%+0.68 -28.6 10
1995-07-06 @ Breidablik W 2-155.4 1360 1476 21.57% 16.23% 62.19%-0.68 +28.6 12
1995-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 3-034.6 1712 1341 79.13% 14.85% 6.02%+1.75 +9.6 21
1995-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-334.6 1341 1712 6.02% 14.85% 79.13%-1.75 -9.6 5
1995-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 1-049.3 1509 1512 47.91% 16.48% 35.61%+0.18 +18.4 10
1995-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-149.3 1512 1509 35.61% 16.48% 47.91%-0.18 -18.4 12
1995-07-06 Grindavik L 0-339.2 1359 1311 54.44% 16.41% 29.15%+0.40 -73.0 4
1995-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-039.2 1311 1359 29.15% 16.41% 54.44%-0.40 +73.0 7
1995-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-051.0 1384 1527 28.88% 16.41% 54.72%-0.40 +26.8 10
1995-07-16 @ Grindavik L 0-151.0 1527 1384 54.72% 16.41% 28.88%+0.40 -26.8 10
1995-07-16 Valur Reykjavik W 1-038.8 1722 1286 81.38% 14.35% 4.27%+2.02 +2.5 24
1995-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-138.8 1286 1722 4.27% 14.35% 81.38%-2.02 -2.5 4
1995-07-16 Breidablik W 2-148.9 1493 1448 54.17% 16.41% 29.41%+0.39 +14.7 15
1995-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-248.9 1448 1493 29.41% 16.41% 54.17%-0.39 -14.7 10
1995-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-038.9 1331 1430 34.56% 16.47% 48.97%-0.22 +66.2 8
1995-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-338.9 1430 1331 48.97% 16.47% 34.56%+0.22 -66.2 6
1995-07-20 Grindavik D 0-056.1 1433 1411 51.20% 16.45% 32.34%+0.29 -2.4 11
1995-07-20 @ Breidablik D 0-056.1 1411 1433 32.34% 16.45% 51.20%-0.29 +2.4 11
1995-07-20 IF Leiftur D 2-262.6 1363 1389 44.78% 16.49% 38.73%+0.09 -0.5 7
1995-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-262.6 1389 1363 38.73% 16.49% 44.78%-0.09 +0.5 13
1995-07-20 IA Akranes L 1-351.9 1500 1724 20.21% 16.19% 63.61%-0.74 -18.2 10
1995-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-151.9 1724 1500 63.61% 16.19% 20.21%+0.74 +18.2 27
1995-07-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-156.1 1551 1508 53.88% 16.42% 29.70%+0.38 -26.4 11
1995-07-20 @ Keflavik IF W 1-056.1 1508 1551 29.70% 16.42% 53.88%-0.38 +26.4 18
1995-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-038.4 1283 1397 32.48% 16.45% 51.07%-0.28 +68.8 7
1995-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-338.4 1397 1283 51.07% 16.45% 32.48%+0.28 -68.8 8
1995-07-23 Keflavik IF L 2-445.2 1329 1524 22.96% 16.28% 60.77%-0.63 -18.3 8
1995-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-245.2 1524 1329 60.77% 16.28% 22.96%+0.63 +18.3 14
1995-07-26 IA Akranes L 0-147.3 1431 1742 13.22% 15.81% 70.97%-1.11 -7.5 11
1995-07-26 @ Breidablik W 1-047.3 1742 1431 70.97% 15.81% 13.22%+1.11 +7.5 30
1995-07-26 KR Reykjavik D 2-266.3 1363 1534 25.57% 16.34% 58.09%-0.52 +2.8 8
1995-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-266.3 1534 1363 58.09% 16.34% 25.57%+0.52 -2.8 19
1995-07-26 Fram Reykjavik W 3-138.6 1389 1310 58.15% 16.34% 25.51%+0.53 +22.5 16
1995-07-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-338.6 1310 1389 25.51% 16.34% 58.15%-0.53 -22.5 8
1995-07-26 Grindavik W 1-042.2 1543 1413 63.49% 16.19% 20.32%+0.74 +11.2 17
1995-07-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-142.2 1413 1543 20.32% 16.19% 63.49%-0.74 -11.2 11
1995-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-342.7 1352 1482 30.46% 16.43% 53.11%-0.35 -26.3 7
1995-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-142.7 1482 1352 53.11% 16.43% 30.46%+0.35 +26.3 13
1995-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-144.4 1402 1366 53.09% 16.43% 30.49%+0.35 +15.2 14
1995-08-03 @ Grindavik L 1-244.4 1366 1402 30.49% 16.43% 53.09%-0.35 -15.2 8
1995-08-03 Keflavik IF W 8-247.6 1750 1554 69.30% 15.92% 14.78%+1.02 +29.9 33
1995-08-03 @ IA Akranes L 2-847.6 1554 1750 14.78% 15.92% 69.30%-1.02 -29.9 17
1995-08-03 IF Leiftur W 2-038.3 1531 1412 62.55% 16.22% 21.23%+0.70 +22.0 22
1995-08-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-238.3 1412 1531 21.23% 16.22% 62.55%-0.70 -22.0 16
1995-08-03 Breidablik L 0-334.4 1326 1423 34.69% 16.47% 48.83%-0.21 -49.4 7
1995-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-034.4 1423 1326 48.83% 16.47% 34.69%+0.21 +49.4 14
1995-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-266.8 1390 1524 29.91% 16.42% 53.67%-0.37 +2.0 17
1995-08-09 @ IF Leiftur D 2-266.8 1524 1390 53.67% 16.42% 29.91%+0.37 -2.0 18
1995-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-150.1 1472 1508 43.27% 16.50% 40.23%+0.04 -21.7 14
1995-08-12 @ Breidablik W 1-050.1 1508 1472 40.23% 16.50% 43.27%-0.04 +21.7 16
1995-08-12 IA Akranes L 2-353.5 1350 1780 7.24% 15.10% 77.66%-1.61 -3.7 8
1995-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-253.5 1780 1350 77.66% 15.10% 7.24%+1.61 +3.7 36
1995-08-12 KR Reykjavik L 1-435.8 1288 1553 16.57% 16.02% 67.41%-0.92 -21.5 8
1995-08-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-135.8 1553 1288 67.41% 16.02% 16.57%+0.92 +21.5 25
1995-08-12 Grindavik W 3-144.6 1392 1417 44.71% 16.49% 38.79%+0.09 +32.4 20
1995-08-12 @ IF Leiftur L 1-344.6 1417 1392 38.79% 16.49% 44.71%-0.09 -32.4 14
1995-08-12 Valur Reykjavik D 1-158.8 1522 1276 72.79% 15.66% 11.54%+1.23 -7.5 19
1995-08-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-158.8 1276 1522 11.54% 15.66% 72.79%-1.23 +7.5 8
1995-08-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-254.8 1451 1266 68.40% 15.97% 15.63%+0.97 -31.4 14
1995-08-18 @ Breidablik W 2-154.8 1266 1451 15.63% 15.97% 68.40%-0.97 +31.4 11
1995-08-18 KR Reykjavik W 1-054.3 1385 1575 23.56% 16.29% 60.14%-0.60 +29.3 17
1995-08-18 @ Grindavik L 0-154.3 1575 1385 60.14% 16.29% 23.56%+0.60 -29.3 25
1995-08-19 IF Leiftur D 2-276.9 1784 1424 78.66% 14.94% 6.40%+1.71 -6.7 37
1995-08-19 @ IA Akranes D 2-276.9 1424 1784 6.40% 14.94% 78.66%-1.71 +6.7 21
1995-08-19 Keflavik IF W 3-258.8 1530 1515 50.37% 16.46% 33.17%+0.26 +15.5 19
1995-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-358.8 1515 1530 33.17% 16.46% 50.37%-0.26 -15.5 19
1995-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-035.8 1284 1347 39.46% 16.50% 44.04%-0.07 +60.4 11
1995-08-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-335.8 1347 1284 44.04% 16.50% 39.46%+0.07 -60.4 8
1995-08-22 Fram Reykjavik W 2-140.2 1546 1298 72.95% 15.65% 11.40%+1.24 +6.2 22
1995-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-240.2 1298 1546 11.40% 15.65% 72.95%-1.24 -6.2 11
1995-08-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-338.5 1286 1552 16.57% 16.02% 67.41%-0.92 -15.2 8
1995-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-138.5 1552 1286 67.41% 16.02% 16.57%+0.92 +15.2 25
1995-08-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-447.1 1431 1344 59.00% 16.32% 24.68%+0.56 -66.4 21
1995-08-30 @ IF Leiftur W 4-147.1 1344 1431 24.68% 16.32% 59.00%-0.56 +66.4 14
1995-08-30 Breidablik D 1-162.0 1499 1419 58.26% 16.34% 25.40%+0.53 -3.8 20
1995-08-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-162.0 1419 1499 25.40% 16.34% 58.26%-0.53 +3.8 15
1995-08-31 Grindavik L 0-235.5 1292 1414 31.38% 16.44% 52.18%-0.32 -31.2 11
1995-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-035.5 1414 1292 52.18% 16.44% 31.38%+0.32 +31.2 20
1995-08-31 IA Akranes W 3-274.8 1546 1777 19.51% 16.16% 64.33%-0.77 +28.0 28
1995-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-374.8 1777 1546 64.33% 16.16% 19.51%+0.77 -28.0 37
1995-09-02 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-139.5 1423 1271 65.64% 16.11% 18.26%+0.83 +9.6 18
1995-09-02 @ Breidablik L 1-239.5 1271 1423 18.26% 16.11% 65.64%-0.83 -9.6 8
1995-09-02 IF Leiftur W 4-032.0 1567 1364 69.83% 15.88% 14.28%+1.05 +29.0 28
1995-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-432.0 1364 1567 14.28% 15.88% 69.83%-1.05 -29.0 21
1995-09-03 Grindavik W 4-038.9 1749 1446 76.09% 15.32% 8.59%+1.47 +17.8 40
1995-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-438.9 1446 1749 8.59% 15.32% 76.09%-1.47 -17.8 20
1995-09-04 Fram Reykjavik D 1-157.9 1495 1260 72.09% 15.72% 12.18%+1.18 -7.3 21
1995-09-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-157.9 1260 1495 12.18% 15.72% 72.09%-1.18 +7.3 12
1995-09-04 KR Reykjavik W 2-158.8 1411 1574 26.53% 16.36% 57.11%-0.49 +26.3 17
1995-09-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-258.8 1574 1411 57.11% 16.36% 26.53%+0.49 -26.3 28
1995-09-08 IA Akranes L 1-244.5 1268 1767 5.02% 14.59% 80.39%-1.90 -2.7 12
1995-09-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-144.5 1767 1268 80.39% 14.59% 5.02%+1.90 +2.7 43
1995-09-09 Keflavik IF D 2-262.6 1261 1488 19.94% 16.18% 63.89%-0.76 +3.9 9
1995-09-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-262.6 1488 1261 63.89% 16.18% 19.94%+0.76 -3.9 22
1995-09-09 Valur Reykjavik L 1-251.8 1428 1437 47.01% 16.48% 36.50%+0.16 -22.0 20
1995-09-09 @ Grindavik W 2-151.8 1437 1428 36.50% 16.48% 47.01%-0.16 +22.0 20
1995-09-09 Breidablik W 3-146.7 1335 1433 34.66% 16.47% 48.87%-0.21 +39.4 24
1995-09-09 @ IF Leiftur L 1-346.7 1433 1335 48.87% 16.47% 34.66%+0.21 -39.4 18
1995-09-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-260.9 1547 1596 41.45% 16.50% 42.05%-0.01 +31.0 31
1995-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-460.9 1596 1547 42.05% 16.50% 41.45%+0.01 -31.0 28
1995-09-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-345.2 1393 1578 24.08% 16.31% 59.61%-0.58 -21.4 18
1995-09-17 @ Breidablik W 3-145.2 1578 1393 59.61% 16.31% 24.08%+0.58 +21.4 34
1995-09-17 Fram Reykjavik W 2-143.5 1265 1265 48.32% 16.48% 35.20%+0.20 +17.2 12
1995-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.5 1265 1265 35.20% 16.48% 48.32%-0.20 -17.2 12
1995-09-17 Grindavik W 3-143.2 1565 1406 66.28% 16.08% 17.64%+0.86 +16.1 31
1995-09-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-343.2 1406 1565 17.64% 16.08% 66.28%-0.86 -16.1 20
1995-09-17 IF Leiftur W 3-249.0 1484 1375 61.49% 16.25% 22.25%+0.66 +10.9 25
1995-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 2-349.0 1375 1484 22.25% 16.25% 61.49%-0.66 -10.9 24
1995-09-17 IA Akranes L 1-447.0 1459 1769 13.31% 15.81% 70.87%-1.11 -17.5 20
1995-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-147.0 1769 1459 70.87% 15.81% 13.31%+1.11 +17.5 46
1995-09-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-337.7 1248 1442 23.16% 16.28% 60.56%-0.62 -20.7 12
1995-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-137.7 1442 1248 60.56% 16.28% 23.16%+0.62 +20.7 23
1995-09-23 Breidablik W 6-344.0 1390 1372 50.65% 16.46% 32.89%+0.27 +31.9 23
1995-09-23 @ Grindavik L 3-644.0 1372 1390 32.89% 16.46% 50.65%-0.27 -31.9 18
1995-09-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-147.6 1787 1581 70.04% 15.87% 14.09%+1.06 +23.8 49
1995-09-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-547.6 1581 1787 14.09% 15.87% 70.04%-1.06 -23.8 31
1995-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-251.1 1364 1282 58.43% 16.33% 25.24%+0.54 -26.9 24
1995-09-23 @ IF Leiftur W 2-151.1 1282 1364 25.24% 16.33% 58.43%-0.54 +26.9 15
1995-09-23 Keflavik IF D 3-377.7 1600 1495 61.00% 16.27% 22.74%+0.64 -2.8 35
1995-09-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-377.7 1495 1600 22.74% 16.27% 61.00%-0.64 +2.8 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-05-23 12.86% IF Leiftur 1224 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1448 0
2 1995-06-14 14.67% Valur Reykjavik 1367 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1565 2
3 1995-08-18 15.63% Fram Reykjavik 1266 2 @ Breidablik 1451 1
4 1995-08-31 19.51% @ KR Reykjavik 1546 3 IA Akranes 1777 2
5 1995-07-06 21.57% IF Leiftur 1360 2 @ Breidablik 1476 1
6 1995-06-25 21.97% @ IF Leiftur 1332 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1537 1
7 1995-06-05 22.20% Breidablik 1435 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1545 2
8 1995-08-18 23.56% @ Grindavik 1385 1 KR Reykjavik 1575 0
9 1995-06-22 23.93% IF Leiftur 1304 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1397 1
10 1995-08-30 24.68% Valur Reykjavik 1344 4 @ IF Leiftur 1431 1
11 1995-09-23 25.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 1282 2 @ IF Leiftur 1364 1
12 1995-09-04 26.53% @ Valur Reykjavik 1411 2 KR Reykjavik 1574 1
13 1995-06-25 27.62% Breidablik 1436 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1497 2
14 1995-06-15 28.15% @ Fram Reykjavik 1313 1 Breidablik 1462 0
15 1995-07-16 28.88% @ Grindavik 1384 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1527 0
16 1995-07-06 29.15% Grindavik 1311 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1359 0
17 1995-07-20 29.70% KR Reykjavik 1508 1 @ Keflavik IF 1551 0
18 1995-07-20 32.48% @ Valur Reykjavik 1283 3 Fram Reykjavik 1397 0
19 1995-07-17 34.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1331 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1430 0
20 1995-09-09 34.66% @ IF Leiftur 1335 3 Breidablik 1433 1
21 1995-09-09 36.50% Valur Reykjavik 1437 2 @ Grindavik 1428 1
22 1995-08-19 39.46% @ Valur Reykjavik 1284 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1347 0
23 1995-08-12 40.23% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1508 1 @ Breidablik 1472 0
24 1995-09-09 41.45% @ KR Reykjavik 1547 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1596 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-23 124.59 IF Leiftur 4 1224 12.86% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1448 71.36% 15.78%
2 1995-05-23 98.54 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 1453 44.86% Valur Reykjavik 1 1477 38.64% 16.49%
3 1995-07-06 72.99 Grindavik 3 1311 29.15% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1359 54.44% 16.41%
4 1995-07-20 68.80 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1283 32.48% Fram Reykjavik 0 1397 51.07% 16.45%
5 1995-08-30 66.44 Valur Reykjavik 4 1344 24.68% @ IF Leiftur 1 1431 59.00% 16.32%
6 1995-07-17 66.25 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1331 34.56% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1430 48.97% 16.47%
7 1995-08-19 60.40 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1284 39.46% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1347 44.04% 16.50%
8 1995-08-03 49.36 Breidablik 3 1423 48.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1326 34.69% 16.47%
9 1995-06-25 39.98 Breidablik 4 1436 27.62% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1497 56.00% 16.38%
10 1995-09-09 39.43 @ IF Leiftur 3 1335 34.66% Breidablik 1 1433 48.87% 16.47%
11 1995-06-22 37.72 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1499 43.41% FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1534 40.09% 16.50%
12 1995-08-12 32.37 @ IF Leiftur 3 1392 44.71% Grindavik 1 1417 38.79% 16.49%
13 1995-09-23 31.88 @ Grindavik 6 1390 50.65% Breidablik 3 1372 32.89% 16.46%
14 1995-08-18 31.43 Fram Reykjavik 2 1266 15.63% @ Breidablik 1 1451 68.40% 15.97%
15 1995-08-31 31.18 Grindavik 2 1414 52.18% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1292 31.38% 16.44%
16 1995-09-09 30.97 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1547 41.45% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1596 42.05% 16.50%
17 1995-06-14 30.28 Valur Reykjavik 3 1367 14.67% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1565 69.42% 15.91%
18 1995-08-03 29.93 @ IA Akranes 8 1750 69.30% Keflavik IF 2 1554 14.78% 15.92%
19 1995-08-18 29.31 @ Grindavik 1 1385 23.56% KR Reykjavik 0 1575 60.14% 16.29%
20 1995-09-02 28.98 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1567 69.83% IF Leiftur 0 1364 14.28% 15.88%
21 1995-07-06 28.57 IF Leiftur 2 1360 21.57% @ Breidablik 1 1476 62.19% 16.23%
22 1995-06-25 28.38 @ IF Leiftur 2 1332 21.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1537 61.78% 16.25%
23 1995-08-31 28.02 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1546 19.51% IA Akranes 2 1777 64.33% 16.16%
24 1995-06-22 27.47 IF Leiftur 2 1304 23.93% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1397 59.76% 16.30%
25 1995-07-05 27.20 @ Keflavik IF 2 1524 56.78% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1457 26.85% 16.37%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-09-23 77.7 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1600 61.00% Keflavik IF 3 1495 22.74% 16.27%
2 1995-08-19 76.9 @ IA Akranes 2 1784 78.66% IF Leiftur 2 1424 6.40% 14.94%
3 1995-08-31 74.8 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1546 19.51% IA Akranes 2 1777 64.33% 16.16%
4 1995-08-09 66.8 @ IF Leiftur 2 1390 29.91% Keflavik IF 2 1524 53.67% 16.42%
5 1995-07-26 66.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1363 25.57% KR Reykjavik 2 1534 58.09% 16.34%
6 1995-06-14 65.4 Valur Reykjavik 3 1367 14.67% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1565 69.42% 15.91%
7 1995-06-05 64.9 Breidablik 3 1435 22.20% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1545 61.54% 16.25%
8 1995-06-21 63.4 @ Breidablik 1 1435 35.68% Keflavik IF 1 1525 47.84% 16.48%
9 1995-07-20 62.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1363 44.78% IF Leiftur 2 1389 38.73% 16.49%
10 1995-09-09 62.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1261 19.94% Keflavik IF 2 1488 63.89% 16.18%
11 1995-08-30 62.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1499 58.26% Breidablik 1 1419 25.40% 16.34%
12 1995-06-22 61.3 @ Grindavik 2 1317 45.02% Fram Reykjavik 2 1340 38.49% 16.49%
13 1995-09-09 60.9 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1547 41.45% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1596 42.05% 16.50%
14 1995-08-12 58.8 @ Keflavik IF 1 1522 72.79% Valur Reykjavik 1 1276 11.54% 15.66%
15 1995-08-19 58.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1530 50.37% Keflavik IF 2 1515 33.17% 16.46%
16 1995-09-04 58.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1411 26.53% KR Reykjavik 1 1574 57.11% 16.36%
17 1995-09-04 57.9 @ Keflavik IF 1 1495 72.09% Fram Reykjavik 1 1260 12.18% 15.72%
18 1995-06-25 57.7 Breidablik 4 1436 27.62% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1497 56.00% 16.38%
19 1995-05-27 57.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1323 19.80% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1551 64.03% 16.17%
20 1995-06-06 56.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1364 28.57% Keflavik IF 0 1509 55.03% 16.40%
21 1995-06-25 56.2 @ IF Leiftur 2 1332 21.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1537 61.78% 16.25%
22 1995-07-20 56.1 @ Breidablik 0 1433 51.20% Grindavik 0 1411 32.34% 16.45%
23 1995-07-20 56.1 KR Reykjavik 1 1508 29.70% @ Keflavik IF 0 1551 53.88% 16.42%
24 1995-07-06 55.4 IF Leiftur 2 1360 21.57% @ Breidablik 1 1476 62.19% 16.23%
25 1995-08-18 54.8 Fram Reykjavik 2 1266 15.63% @ Breidablik 1 1451 68.40% 15.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-09-02 32.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1567 69.83% IF Leiftur 0 1364 14.28% 15.88%
2 1995-05-27 33.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1576 73.54% Grindavik 0 1319 10.86% 15.60%
3 1995-08-03 34.4 Breidablik 3 1423 48.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1326 34.69% 16.47%
4 1995-07-06 34.6 @ IA Akranes 3 1712 79.13% Fram Reykjavik 0 1341 6.02% 14.85%
5 1995-08-31 35.5 Grindavik 2 1414 52.18% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1292 31.38% 16.44%
6 1995-08-12 35.8 KR Reykjavik 4 1553 67.41% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1288 16.57% 16.02%
7 1995-08-19 35.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1284 39.46% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1347 44.04% 16.50%
8 1995-06-14 36.6 IA Akranes 2 1679 74.29% @ IF Leiftur 0 1315 10.18% 15.52%
9 1995-09-23 37.7 Valur Reykjavik 3 1442 60.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1248 23.16% 16.28%
10 1995-06-05 38.3 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1494 66.78% Fram Reykjavik 1 1329 17.16% 16.05%
11 1995-08-03 38.3 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1531 62.55% IF Leiftur 0 1412 21.23% 16.22%
12 1995-07-20 38.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1283 32.48% Fram Reykjavik 0 1397 51.07% 16.45%
13 1995-08-30 38.5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1552 67.41% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1286 16.57% 16.02%
14 1995-07-26 38.6 @ IF Leiftur 3 1389 58.15% Fram Reykjavik 1 1310 25.51% 16.34%
15 1995-07-16 38.8 @ IA Akranes 1 1722 81.38% Valur Reykjavik 0 1286 4.27% 14.35%
16 1995-07-17 38.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1331 34.56% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1430 48.97% 16.47%
17 1995-09-03 38.9 @ IA Akranes 4 1749 76.09% Grindavik 0 1446 8.59% 15.32%
18 1995-07-06 39.2 Grindavik 3 1311 29.15% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1359 54.44% 16.41%
19 1995-06-25 39.3 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1500 63.60% Valur Reykjavik 0 1370 20.22% 16.19%
20 1995-09-02 39.5 @ Breidablik 2 1423 65.64% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1271 18.26% 16.11%
21 1995-08-22 40.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1546 72.95% Fram Reykjavik 1 1298 11.40% 15.65%
22 1995-05-23 40.8 @ IA Akranes 2 1621 68.38% Breidablik 0 1437 15.65% 15.97%
23 1995-06-14 41.3 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1510 68.42% Grindavik 1 1325 15.61% 15.97%
24 1995-07-05 41.4 @ Keflavik IF 2 1524 56.78% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1457 26.85% 16.37%
25 1995-07-26 42.2 @ Keflavik IF 1 1543 63.49% Grindavik 0 1413 20.32% 16.19%