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1995 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

49 points · 13th Title

Last Title: 1994.0

Relegated

Fram Reykjavik

12 pts

FH Hafnarfjordur · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

8.02 points above expected

49 points · 40.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FH Hafnarfjordur

7.87 points below expected

15 points · 22.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 16 1 1 49 50 15 +35 40.98 +8.02
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 2 5 35 33 22 +11 30.35 +4.65
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 10 1 7 31 41 29 +12 30.25 +0.75
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 8 4 26 28 29 -1 30.81 -4.81
5 IF Leiftur 18 7 3 8 24 32 34 -2 19.52 +4.48
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 29 -3 19.65 +3.35
7 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 34 -8 19.62 +3.38
8 Breidablik 18 5 3 10 18 24 31 -7 24.60 -6.60
9 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 26 42 -16 22.87 -7.87
10 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 3 12 12 18 39 -21 16.83 -4.83

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1812 49 40.98 +8.02 97.3% 20 33 38 41 44 49 54
KR Reykjavik 1598 35 30.35 +4.65 82.8% 10 21 27 30 34 39 50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1559 31 30.25 +0.75 58.9% 11 21 27 30 34 39 50
Keflavik IF 1499 26 30.81 -4.81 21.3% 10 22 27 31 35 40 50
Valur Reykjavik 1464 23 19.62 +3.38 77.0% 2 11 16 19 23 29 41
Grindavik 1424 23 19.65 +3.35 76.7% 1 11 16 20 23 29 41
Breidablik 1341 18 24.60 -6.60 13.2% 7 16 21 25 28 34 45
IF Leiftur 1339 24 19.52 +4.48 82.8% 3 11 16 19 23 28 40
FH Hafnarfjordur 1310 15 22.87 -7.87 8.3% 5 14 19 23 26 32 44
Fram Reykjavik 1229 12 16.83 -4.83 20.2% 1 9 13 17 20 25 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-2
4.03
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
3.64
0-0-2
1.93
0-2-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.40
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.55
 —
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
3.42
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
2.41
1-1-0
2.39
0-1-1
1.73
0-0-2
3.73
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
1.64
1-0-1
2.43
 —
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
0.63
0-1-1
1.26
0-0-2
3.20
0-0-2
1.33
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-2
2.55
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
3.27
 —
0-0-2
0.84
1-0-1
1.74
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
1.52
0-0-2
1.69
1-0-1
2.64
IA Akranes
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.35
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.85
 —
2-0-0
4.33
1-1-0
4.88
1-0-1
4.27
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
4.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.65
1-1-0
4.42
1-0-1
3.94
0-0-2
1.35
 —
1-0-1
4.25
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
3.27
IF Leiftur
2-0-0
2.04
0-1-1
3.26
2-0-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.84
0-1-1
0.81
1-0-1
1.43
 —
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-1
2.84
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
3.28
2-0-0
4.34
1-0-1
4.16
1-0-1
1.41
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.77
 —
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.95
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.95
1-1-0
4.30
2-0-0
3.98
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.77
0-1-1
2.62
 —
0-2-0
4.16
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.27
2-0-0
1.95
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.73
0-2-0
1.52
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.8
Allowed 0.87 -12.8
Differential 0.97 +6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%7.22%3.89%3.33%1.67%—19.44%
17.22%4.44%10.00%6.11%1.67%1.11%30.56%
23.89%10.00%6.67%3.89%1.67%0.56%26.67%
33.33%6.11%3.89%1.11%—1.11%15.56%
41.67%1.67%1.67%———5.00%
5+—1.11%0.56%1.11%——2.78%
Total19.44%30.56%26.67%15.56%5.00%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.69 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.03
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1—11.11%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.24 1.36 1.54
CV 0.93 0.79 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
15.56%—11.11%11.11%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.33 -0.89
SD 0.86 1.41 1.53
CV 0.59 0.61 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%—50.00%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.17 -1.17
SD 0.84 1.34 1.76
CV 0.84 0.62 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%—22.22%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total27.78%11.11%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.61 -0.17
SD 1.46 1.24 1.86
CV 1.01 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—————16.67%
216.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.83 +1.94
SD 1.70 0.92 1.63
CV 0.61 1.11 —
Max 8 3 +6
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
3—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.61 +0.67
SD 2.11 1.46 2.54
CV 0.93 0.91 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
2—16.67%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.89 -0.11
SD 1.11 1.08 2.00
CV 0.63 0.57 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%—5.56%———16.67%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.22 +0.61
SD 1.34 0.81 1.38
CV 0.73 0.66 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%22.22%————33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.10 1.85 1.73
CV 0.70 1.15 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.89 -0.44
SD 1.29 1.91 2.59
CV 0.90 1.01 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 49 40.98 +8.02
2 KR Reykjavik 35 30.35 +4.65
3 IF Leiftur 24 19.52 +4.48
4 Valur Reykjavik 23 19.62 +3.38
5 Grindavik 23 19.65 +3.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 22.87 -7.87
2 Breidablik 18 24.60 -6.60
3 Fram Reykjavik 12 16.83 -4.83
4 Keflavik IF 26 30.81 -4.81
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 30.25 +0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 108
2 IA Akranes 12 May 23 – Aug 12 1 in 86
3 IF Leiftur 3 Jun 22 – Jul 6 1 in 83
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 27 – Sep 2 1 in 27
5 Grindavik 2 Jul 6 – Jul 16 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jun 5 – Jul 17 1 in 512
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 27
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 20 – Aug 12 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Jun 5 – Jun 15 1 in 10
5 Breidablik 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 12 – Sep 9 1 in 71
2 IF Leiftur 5 Jun 22 – Jul 26 1 in 40
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 10
4 Grindavik 3 Jul 6 – Jul 20 1 in 10
5 IA Akranes 13 May 23 – Aug 19 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 14 Jun 5 – Sep 9 1 in 554
2 Keflavik IF 7 Aug 3 – Sep 9 1 in 328
3 IA Akranes 2 Aug 19 – Aug 31 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 May 27 – Jun 15 1 in 11
5 Breidablik 4 Jul 6 – Jul 26 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes81.42%13.20%3.73%1.14%0.35%0.12%0.03%0.01%——
KR Reykjavik5.65%25.57%24.23%19.18%11.44%6.77%3.82%2.17%0.87%0.30%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar5.27%25.94%23.89%18.99%11.97%6.66%3.85%1.89%1.11%0.43%
Keflavik IF6.54%25.14%24.77%19.32%11.56%6.31%3.55%1.83%0.70%0.28%
IF Leiftur0.04%0.75%2.14%5.09%9.27%13.64%15.71%18.17%19.13%16.06%
Grindavik0.05%0.89%2.53%5.25%9.00%13.11%16.63%18.13%18.16%16.25%
Valur Reykjavik0.06%0.72%2.53%4.82%8.65%12.82%16.19%17.62%19.01%17.58%
Breidablik0.68%4.92%9.60%14.56%19.05%16.60%13.37%10.13%7.07%4.02%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.28%2.64%5.95%10.02%14.88%17.43%16.48%14.05%11.03%7.24%
Fram Reykjavik0.01%0.23%0.63%1.63%3.83%6.54%10.37%16.00%22.92%37.84%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Slight Edge
48.89%15.56%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
236 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.38 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
81%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.78/gm
Runaway
00.371.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.23 * Some Luck: 4.23 to 6.34 * Lucky: 6.34 to 8.45 * Wild Swing: 8.45 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.74 * Off: 1.74 to 2.32 * Way Off: 2.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.03 * A Surprise: 1.03 to 1.64 * Several Surprises: 1.64 to 2.26 * Many Surprises: 2.26 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.30 points
Some Luck
05.2813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.453
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.28%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.30%
FH Hafnarfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.69
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.136
Well Within Noise
00.1700.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
Keflavik IF 99.02% 0.98%
KR Reykjavik 98.83% 1.17%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 98.46% 1.54%
Breidablik 88.91% 11.09%
FH Hafnarfjordur 81.73% 18.27%
Grindavik 65.59% 34.41%
IF Leiftur 64.81% 35.19%
Valur Reykjavik 63.41% 36.59%
Fram Reykjavik 39.24% 60.76%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1995-05-23 IF Leiftur L 0-4 1448 1230 71.0% 15.8% 13.2% -123.8 0
1995-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1230 1448 13.2% 15.8% 71.0% +123.9 3
1995-05-23 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1337 1515 24.9% 16.3% 58.8% -12.7 0
1995-05-23 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1515 1337 58.8% 16.3% 24.9% +12.7 3
1995-05-23 Breidablik W 2-0 1622 1437 68.4% 16.0% 15.6% +16.6 3
1995-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1437 1622 15.6% 16.0% 68.4% -16.6 0
1995-05-23 Valur Reykjavik W 8-1 1453 1478 44.9% 16.5% 38.6% +98.5 3
1995-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-8 1478 1453 38.6% 16.5% 44.9% -98.5 0
1995-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1500 1556 40.3% 16.5% 43.2% -20.5 0
1995-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1556 1500 43.2% 16.5% 40.3% +20.5 3
1995-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1421 1379 53.7% 16.4% 29.9% +14.9 3
1995-05-27 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1379 1421 29.9% 16.4% 53.7% -14.9 0
1995-05-27 Grindavik W 2-0 1577 1324 73.2% 15.6% 11.1% +12.0 6
1995-05-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1324 1577 11.1% 15.6% 73.2% -12.1 0
1995-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1324 1551 19.9% 16.2% 64.0% +5.8 1
1995-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1551 1324 64.0% 16.2% 19.9% -5.8 4
1995-05-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1354 1479 31.0% 16.4% 52.5% -15.4 3
1995-05-27 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1479 1354 52.5% 16.4% 31.0% +15.4 3
1995-05-27 IA Akranes L 0-1 1527 1638 32.9% 16.5% 50.6% -17.2 3
1995-05-27 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1638 1527 50.6% 16.5% 32.9% +17.2 6
1995-06-05 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1312 1338 44.7% 16.5% 38.8% +17.7 3
1995-06-05 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1338 1312 38.8% 16.5% 44.7% -17.7 3
1995-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1655 1589 56.7% 16.4% 26.9% +23.6 9
1995-06-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1589 1655 26.9% 16.4% 56.7% -23.6 6
1995-06-05 Breidablik L 2-3 1546 1436 61.6% 16.2% 22.2% -26.8 4
1995-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1436 1546 22.2% 16.2% 61.6% +26.8 6
1995-06-05 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1495 1330 66.7% 16.1% 17.2% +15.8 6
1995-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1330 1495 17.2% 16.1% 66.7% -15.8 1
1995-06-06 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1364 1510 28.5% 16.4% 55.1% +3.4 1
1995-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1510 1364 55.1% 16.4% 28.5% -3.4 4
1995-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1565 1368 69.5% 15.9% 14.6% -30.3 6
1995-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1368 1565 14.6% 15.9% 69.5% +30.3 4
1995-06-14 IA Akranes L 0-2 1321 1679 10.4% 15.6% 74.0% -11.3 3
1995-06-14 @ IF Leiftur W 2-0 1679 1321 74.0% 15.6% 10.4% +11.3 12
1995-06-14 Grindavik W 2-1 1510 1330 68.1% 16.0% 16.0% +8.5 9
1995-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1330 1510 16.0% 16.0% 68.1% -8.5 3
1995-06-15 Breidablik W 1-0 1314 1462 28.3% 16.4% 55.3% +27.1 4
1995-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1462 1314 55.3% 16.4% 28.3% -27.1 6
1995-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1507 1519 46.6% 16.5% 36.9% +19.0 7
1995-06-15 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1519 1507 36.9% 16.5% 46.6% -19.0 4
1995-06-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1435 1526 35.6% 16.5% 47.9% +1.4 7
1995-06-21 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1526 1435 47.9% 16.5% 35.6% -1.4 8
1995-06-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1322 1341 45.6% 16.5% 37.9% -0.6 4
1995-06-22 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1341 1322 37.9% 16.5% 45.6% +0.6 5
1995-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1690 1519 67.3% 16.0% 16.6% +17.6 15
1995-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1519 1690 16.6% 16.0% 67.3% -17.6 9
1995-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-3 1500 1535 43.4% 16.5% 40.1% +37.8 7
1995-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-6 1535 1500 40.1% 16.5% 43.4% -37.8 6
1995-06-22 IF Leiftur L 1-2 1398 1309 59.3% 16.3% 24.4% -27.2 4
1995-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1309 1398 24.4% 16.3% 59.3% +27.2 6
1995-06-25 Breidablik L 2-4 1497 1437 56.0% 16.4% 27.6% -40.0 6
1995-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1437 1497 27.6% 16.4% 56.0% +40.0 10
1995-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-2 1321 1708 9.0% 15.4% 75.6% -4.9 4
1995-06-25 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1708 1321 75.6% 15.4% 9.0% +4.9 18
1995-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1336 1538 22.4% 16.3% 61.3% +28.2 9
1995-06-25 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1538 1336 61.3% 16.3% 22.4% -28.2 7
1995-06-25 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1501 1371 63.6% 16.2% 20.2% +11.2 12
1995-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1371 1501 20.2% 16.2% 63.6% -11.2 4
1995-07-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1524 1457 56.8% 16.4% 26.8% +27.2 11
1995-07-05 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1457 1524 26.8% 16.4% 56.8% -27.2 6
1995-07-06 IF Leiftur L 1-2 1477 1365 61.8% 16.2% 22.0% -28.4 10
1995-07-06 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1365 1477 22.0% 16.2% 61.8% +28.4 12
1995-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1713 1342 79.1% 14.8% 6.0% +9.6 21
1995-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1342 1713 6.0% 14.8% 79.1% -9.6 5
1995-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1509 1512 47.9% 16.5% 35.6% +18.4 10
1995-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1512 1509 35.6% 16.5% 47.9% -18.4 12
1995-07-06 Grindavik L 0-3 1359 1316 53.9% 16.4% 29.6% -72.4 4
1995-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1316 1359 29.6% 16.4% 53.9% +72.3 7
1995-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1388 1528 29.3% 16.4% 54.3% +26.6 10
1995-07-16 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1528 1388 54.3% 16.4% 29.3% -26.6 10
1995-07-16 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1722 1287 81.4% 14.3% 4.3% +2.5 24
1995-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1287 1722 4.3% 14.3% 81.4% -2.5 4
1995-07-16 Breidablik W 2-1 1494 1448 54.2% 16.4% 29.4% +14.7 15
1995-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1448 1494 29.4% 16.4% 54.2% -14.7 10
1995-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1332 1430 34.6% 16.5% 48.9% +66.2 8
1995-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1430 1332 48.9% 16.5% 34.6% -66.2 6
1995-07-20 Grindavik D 0-0 1434 1415 50.8% 16.5% 32.8% -2.2 11
1995-07-20 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1415 1434 32.8% 16.5% 50.8% +2.3 11
1995-07-20 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1364 1393 44.3% 16.5% 39.2% -0.4 7
1995-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1393 1364 39.2% 16.5% 44.3% +0.4 13
1995-07-20 IA Akranes L 1-3 1501 1725 20.2% 16.2% 63.6% -18.3 10
1995-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1725 1501 63.6% 16.2% 20.2% +18.2 27
1995-07-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1552 1509 53.9% 16.4% 29.7% -26.4 11
1995-07-20 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1509 1552 29.7% 16.4% 53.9% +26.4 18
1995-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1285 1399 32.5% 16.4% 51.0% +68.8 7
1995-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1399 1285 51.0% 16.4% 32.5% -68.8 8
1995-07-23 Keflavik IF L 2-4 1330 1525 23.0% 16.3% 60.7% -18.3 8
1995-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1525 1330 60.7% 16.3% 23.0% +18.4 14
1995-07-26 IA Akranes L 0-1 1431 1743 13.2% 15.8% 71.0% -7.5 11
1995-07-26 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1743 1431 71.0% 15.8% 13.2% +7.5 30
1995-07-26 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1364 1535 25.6% 16.3% 58.1% +2.8 8
1995-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1535 1364 58.1% 16.3% 25.6% -2.8 19
1995-07-26 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1393 1311 58.5% 16.3% 25.2% +22.2 16
1995-07-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1311 1393 25.2% 16.3% 58.5% -22.2 8
1995-07-26 Grindavik W 1-0 1544 1417 63.2% 16.2% 20.6% +11.4 17
1995-07-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1417 1544 20.6% 16.2% 63.2% -11.4 11
1995-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1353 1483 30.5% 16.4% 53.1% -26.3 7
1995-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1483 1353 53.1% 16.4% 30.5% +26.4 13
1995-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1406 1366 53.4% 16.4% 30.1% +15.1 14
1995-08-03 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1366 1406 30.1% 16.4% 53.4% -15.1 8
1995-08-03 Keflavik IF W 8-2 1751 1555 69.3% 15.9% 14.8% +29.9 33
1995-08-03 @ IA Akranes L 2-8 1555 1751 14.8% 15.9% 69.3% -29.9 17
1995-08-03 IF Leiftur W 2-0 1532 1416 62.2% 16.2% 21.5% +22.3 22
1995-08-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1416 1532 21.5% 16.2% 62.2% -22.3 16
1995-08-03 Breidablik L 0-3 1327 1424 34.8% 16.5% 48.8% -49.5 7
1995-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1424 1327 48.8% 16.5% 34.8% +49.4 14
1995-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1393 1525 30.3% 16.4% 53.3% +2.0 17
1995-08-09 @ IF Leiftur D 2-2 1525 1393 53.3% 16.4% 30.3% -1.9 18
1995-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1473 1509 43.2% 16.5% 40.3% -21.7 14
1995-08-12 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1509 1473 40.3% 16.5% 43.2% +21.7 16
1995-08-12 IA Akranes L 2-3 1351 1781 7.2% 15.1% 77.7% -3.8 8
1995-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1781 1351 77.7% 15.1% 7.2% +3.8 36
1995-08-12 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1289 1555 16.6% 16.0% 67.4% -21.5 8
1995-08-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1555 1289 67.4% 16.0% 16.6% +21.5 25
1995-08-12 Grindavik W 3-1 1395 1421 44.7% 16.5% 38.8% +32.3 20
1995-08-12 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1421 1395 38.8% 16.5% 44.7% -32.4 14
1995-08-12 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1523 1278 72.8% 15.7% 11.6% -7.5 19
1995-08-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1278 1523 11.6% 15.7% 72.8% +7.5 8
1995-08-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1452 1268 68.3% 16.0% 15.7% -31.4 14
1995-08-18 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1268 1452 15.7% 16.0% 68.3% +31.4 11
1995-08-18 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1389 1576 23.8% 16.3% 59.9% +29.2 17
1995-08-18 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1576 1389 59.9% 16.3% 23.8% -29.2 25
1995-08-19 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1784 1428 78.5% 15.0% 6.5% -6.7 37
1995-08-19 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1428 1784 6.5% 15.0% 78.5% +6.7 21
1995-08-19 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1531 1516 50.4% 16.5% 33.2% +15.5 19
1995-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1516 1531 33.2% 16.5% 50.4% -15.5 19
1995-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1285 1348 39.5% 16.5% 44.0% +60.4 11
1995-08-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1348 1285 44.0% 16.5% 39.5% -60.4 8
1995-08-22 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1547 1299 72.9% 15.7% 11.4% +6.2 22
1995-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1299 1547 11.4% 15.7% 72.9% -6.2 11
1995-08-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1287 1553 16.6% 16.0% 67.4% -15.2 8
1995-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1553 1287 67.4% 16.0% 16.6% +15.2 25
1995-08-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1434 1345 59.3% 16.3% 24.4% -66.7 21
1995-08-30 @ IF Leiftur W 4-1 1345 1434 24.4% 16.3% 59.3% +66.8 14
1995-08-30 Breidablik D 1-1 1500 1420 58.3% 16.3% 25.4% -3.8 20
1995-08-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1420 1500 25.4% 16.3% 58.3% +3.8 15
1995-08-31 Grindavik L 0-2 1293 1418 31.1% 16.4% 52.4% -30.9 11
1995-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1418 1293 52.4% 16.4% 31.1% +31.0 20
1995-08-31 IA Akranes W 3-2 1547 1778 19.5% 16.2% 64.3% +28.0 28
1995-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1778 1547 64.3% 16.2% 19.5% -28.0 37
1995-09-02 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1424 1272 65.6% 16.1% 18.3% +9.6 18
1995-09-02 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1272 1424 18.3% 16.1% 65.6% -9.6 8
1995-09-02 IF Leiftur W 4-0 1568 1368 69.7% 15.9% 14.4% +29.3 28
1995-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1368 1568 14.4% 15.9% 69.7% -29.3 21
1995-09-03 Grindavik W 4-0 1750 1449 76.0% 15.3% 8.7% +18.0 40
1995-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1449 1750 8.7% 15.3% 76.0% -18.0 20
1995-09-04 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1496 1262 72.1% 15.7% 12.2% -7.3 21
1995-09-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1262 1496 12.2% 15.7% 72.1% +7.3 12
1995-09-04 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1412 1575 26.6% 16.4% 57.1% +26.3 17
1995-09-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1575 1412 57.1% 16.4% 26.6% -26.3 28
1995-09-08 IA Akranes L 1-2 1269 1768 5.0% 14.6% 80.4% -2.7 12
1995-09-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1768 1269 80.4% 14.6% 5.0% +2.7 43
1995-09-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1262 1489 19.9% 16.2% 63.9% +3.9 9
1995-09-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1489 1262 63.9% 16.2% 19.9% -3.9 22
1995-09-09 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1431 1438 47.2% 16.5% 36.3% -22.1 20
1995-09-09 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1438 1431 36.3% 16.5% 47.2% +22.1 20
1995-09-09 Breidablik W 3-1 1338 1434 35.0% 16.5% 48.6% +39.2 24
1995-09-09 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1434 1338 48.6% 16.5% 35.0% -39.2 18
1995-09-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1549 1597 41.4% 16.5% 42.0% +31.0 31
1995-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1597 1549 42.0% 16.5% 41.4% -31.0 28
1995-09-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1394 1580 24.1% 16.3% 59.6% -21.4 18
1995-09-17 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1580 1394 59.6% 16.3% 24.1% +21.4 34
1995-09-17 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1266 1266 48.2% 16.5% 35.3% +17.2 12
1995-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1266 1266 35.3% 16.5% 48.2% -17.2 12
1995-09-17 Grindavik W 3-1 1566 1409 66.1% 16.1% 17.8% +16.2 31
1995-09-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1409 1566 17.8% 16.1% 66.1% -16.2 20
1995-09-17 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1485 1377 61.3% 16.3% 22.4% +11.0 25
1995-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1377 1485 22.4% 16.3% 61.3% -11.0 24
1995-09-17 IA Akranes L 1-4 1461 1770 13.3% 15.8% 70.9% -17.5 20
1995-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1770 1461 70.9% 15.8% 13.3% +17.5 46
1995-09-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1249 1443 23.2% 16.3% 60.6% -20.7 12
1995-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1443 1249 60.6% 16.3% 23.2% +20.7 23
1995-09-23 Breidablik W 6-3 1392 1373 50.9% 16.4% 32.7% +31.7 23
1995-09-23 @ Grindavik L 3-6 1373 1392 32.7% 16.4% 50.9% -31.7 18
1995-09-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1788 1583 70.0% 15.9% 14.1% +23.9 49
1995-09-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-5 1583 1788 14.1% 15.9% 70.0% -23.9 31
1995-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1366 1283 58.6% 16.3% 25.1% -27.0 24
1995-09-23 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1283 1366 25.1% 16.3% 58.6% +27.0 15
1995-09-23 Keflavik IF D 3-3 1601 1496 61.0% 16.3% 22.7% -2.8 35
1995-09-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 1496 1601 22.7% 16.3% 61.0% +2.8 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-05-23 13.24% IF Leiftur 1230 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1448 0
2 1995-06-14 14.64% Valur Reykjavik 1368 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1565 2
3 1995-08-18 15.68% Fram Reykjavik 1268 2 @ Breidablik 1452 1
4 1995-08-31 19.54% @ KR Reykjavik 1547 3 IA Akranes 1778 2
5 1995-07-06 21.99% IF Leiftur 1365 2 @ Breidablik 1477 1
6 1995-06-05 22.18% Breidablik 1436 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1546 2
7 1995-06-25 22.40% @ IF Leiftur 1336 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1538 1
8 1995-08-18 23.82% @ Grindavik 1389 1 KR Reykjavik 1576 0
9 1995-08-30 24.41% Valur Reykjavik 1345 4 @ IF Leiftur 1434 1
10 1995-06-22 24.43% IF Leiftur 1309 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1398 1
11 1995-09-23 25.05% FH Hafnarfjordur 1283 2 @ IF Leiftur 1366 1
12 1995-09-04 26.55% @ Valur Reykjavik 1412 2 KR Reykjavik 1575 1
13 1995-06-25 27.57% Breidablik 1437 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1497 2
14 1995-06-15 28.26% @ Fram Reykjavik 1314 1 Breidablik 1462 0
15 1995-07-16 29.30% @ Grindavik 1388 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1528 0
16 1995-07-06 29.65% Grindavik 1316 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1359 0
17 1995-07-20 29.71% KR Reykjavik 1509 1 @ Keflavik IF 1552 0
18 1995-07-20 32.50% @ Valur Reykjavik 1285 3 Fram Reykjavik 1399 0
19 1995-07-17 34.63% @ Fram Reykjavik 1332 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1430 0
20 1995-09-09 34.96% @ IF Leiftur 1338 3 Breidablik 1434 1
21 1995-09-09 36.29% Valur Reykjavik 1438 2 @ Grindavik 1431 1
22 1995-08-19 39.48% @ Valur Reykjavik 1285 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1348 0
23 1995-08-12 40.26% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1509 1 @ Breidablik 1473 0
24 1995-09-09 41.45% @ KR Reykjavik 1549 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1597 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-23 123.85 IF Leiftur 4 1230 13.24% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1448 70.95% 15.81%
2 1995-05-23 98.53 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 1453 44.87% Valur Reykjavik 1 1478 38.63% 16.49%
3 1995-07-06 72.35 Grindavik 3 1316 29.65% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1359 53.93% 16.42%
4 1995-07-20 68.77 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1285 32.50% Fram Reykjavik 0 1399 51.04% 16.45%
5 1995-08-30 66.75 Valur Reykjavik 4 1345 24.41% @ IF Leiftur 1 1434 59.28% 16.31%
6 1995-07-17 66.17 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1332 34.63% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1430 48.90% 16.47%
7 1995-08-19 60.37 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1285 39.48% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1348 44.02% 16.50%
8 1995-08-03 49.45 Breidablik 3 1424 48.76% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1327 34.77% 16.47%
9 1995-06-25 40.01 Breidablik 4 1437 27.57% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1497 56.05% 16.38%
10 1995-09-09 39.22 @ IF Leiftur 3 1338 34.96% Breidablik 1 1434 48.57% 16.47%
11 1995-06-22 37.75 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1500 43.37% FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1535 40.13% 16.50%
12 1995-08-12 32.35 @ IF Leiftur 3 1395 44.73% Grindavik 1 1421 38.78% 16.49%
13 1995-09-23 31.69 @ Grindavik 6 1392 50.88% Breidablik 3 1373 32.67% 16.45%
14 1995-08-18 31.41 Fram Reykjavik 2 1268 15.68% @ Breidablik 1 1452 68.35% 15.97%
15 1995-09-09 30.97 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1549 41.45% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1597 42.05% 16.50%
16 1995-08-31 30.95 Grindavik 2 1418 52.45% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1293 31.11% 16.44%
17 1995-06-14 30.29 Valur Reykjavik 3 1368 14.64% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1565 69.45% 15.91%
18 1995-08-03 29.94 @ IA Akranes 8 1751 69.30% Keflavik IF 2 1555 14.79% 15.92%
19 1995-09-02 29.31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1568 69.65% IF Leiftur 0 1368 14.45% 15.90%
20 1995-08-18 29.19 @ Grindavik 1 1389 23.82% KR Reykjavik 0 1576 59.88% 16.30%
21 1995-07-06 28.36 IF Leiftur 2 1365 21.99% @ Breidablik 1 1477 61.76% 16.25%
22 1995-06-25 28.18 @ IF Leiftur 2 1336 22.40% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1538 61.34% 16.26%
23 1995-08-31 28.01 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1547 19.54% IA Akranes 2 1778 64.30% 16.16%
24 1995-06-22 27.24 IF Leiftur 2 1309 24.43% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1398 59.26% 16.32%
25 1995-07-05 27.19 @ Keflavik IF 2 1524 56.79% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1457 26.84% 16.37%