1995 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

49 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

9.95 points above expected

49 points · 39.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FH Hafnarfjordur

9.42 points below expected

15 points · 24.42 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 18 16 1 1 49 50 15 +35 39.0 +9.95
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 2 5 35 33 22 +11 29.9 +5.12
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 10 1 7 31 41 29 +12 28.2 +2.76
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 8 4 26 28 29 -1 30.3 -4.32
5 IF Leiftur 18 7 3 8 24 32 34 -2 19.3 +4.69
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 29 -3 18.1 +4.87
7 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 26 34 -8 21.0 +1.99
8 Breidablik 18 5 3 10 18 24 31 -7 24.6 -6.62
9 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 4 3 11 15 26 42 -16 24.4 -9.42
10 Fram Reykjavik 18 3 3 12 12 18 39 -21 19.1 -7.05

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1746 49 39.05 +9.95 98.8% 17 31 36 39 43 47 54
KR Reykjavik 1571 35 29.88 +5.12 84.4% 9 21 26 30 34 39 49
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1532 31 28.24 +2.76 71.8% 9 19 25 28 32 37 48
Keflavik IF 1502 26 30.32 -4.32 24.1% 10 21 27 30 34 39 48
Valur Reykjavik 1444 23 21.01 +1.99 68.4% 2 12 17 21 25 30 41
Grindavik 1401 23 18.13 +4.87 84.8% 0 10 14 18 22 27 39
Breidablik 1378 18 24.62 -6.62 13.6% 7 16 21 25 28 34 45
FH Hafnarfjordur 1362 15 24.42 -9.42 5.2% 4 15 21 24 28 33 44
IF Leiftur 1354 24 19.31 +4.69 83.6% 2 11 16 19 23 28 39
Fram Reykjavik 1285 12 19.05 -7.05 10.7% 2 11 15 19 23 28 41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI VR
Breidablik
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-2
3.63
0-1-1
3.14
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
3.57
0-0-2
2.07
0-2-0
2.23
2-0-0
3.17
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.70
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.67
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.36
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.48
0-1-1
2.00
0-0-2
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.01
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
0.86
0-1-1
1.74
0-0-2
3.27
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
1.63
0-0-2
2.60
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
1.99
1-1-0
2.76
0-0-2
0.94
1-0-1
1.76
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
2.41
IA Akranes
2-0-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
4.85
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
4.15
1-1-0
4.70
1-0-1
3.97
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
4.68
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.88
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
3.98
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.02
IF Leiftur
2-0-0
2.07
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.99
0-1-1
1.00
1-0-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
1.88
1-0-1
2.65
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.57
0-1-1
3.15
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-1
4.16
1-0-1
1.68
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.76
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.76
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.40
1-1-0
3.63
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
4.06
0-0-2
1.96
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
3.76
0-1-1
2.66
0-2-0
3.87
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.46
2-0-0
2.07
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
3.22
0-0-2
1.01
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
1.88
0-2-0
1.78

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%7.22%3.89%3.33%1.67%19.44%
17.22%4.44%10.00%6.11%1.67%1.11%30.56%
23.89%10.00%6.67%3.89%1.67%0.56%26.67%
33.33%6.11%3.89%1.11%1.11%15.56%
41.67%1.67%1.67%5.00%
5+1.11%0.56%1.11%2.78%
Total19.44%30.56%26.67%15.56%5.00%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.69
Mean allowed1.69
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed1.41
Mean total goals/game3.38
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.027
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%27.78%
111.11%16.67%11.11%38.89%
211.11%11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%5.56%100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.24
StdDev allowed1.36
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.302
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
25.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%50.00%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed2.33
StdDev scored0.86
StdDev allowed1.41
Mean total goals/game3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.162
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%27.78%16.67%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed2.17
StdDev scored0.84
StdDev allowed1.34
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.261
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
111.11%22.22%11.11%44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total27.78%11.11%38.89%16.67%5.56%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored1.46
StdDev allowed1.24
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.068
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
116.67%16.67%
216.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
35.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.78
Mean allowed0.83
StdDev scored1.70
StdDev allowed0.92
Mean total goals/game3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.350
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
316.67%5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.28
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored2.11
StdDev allowed1.46
Mean total goals/game3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.018
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%
111.11%5.56%16.67%
216.67%16.67%11.11%44.44%
316.67%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%11.11%11.11%100%

IF Leiftur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.78
Mean allowed1.89
StdDev scored1.11
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.658
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%22.22%
111.11%5.56%16.67%
25.56%16.67%5.56%27.78%
311.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total16.67%50.00%27.78%5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.83
Mean allowed1.22
StdDev scored1.34
StdDev allowed0.81
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.254
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
111.11%22.22%33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed1.85
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.402
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
211.11%11.11%
311.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed1.89
StdDev scored1.29
StdDev allowed1.91
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.289
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 49 39.0 +9.95
2 KR Reykjavik 35 29.9 +5.12
3 Grindavik 23 18.1 +4.87
4 IF Leiftur 24 19.3 +4.69
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 28.2 +2.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 24.4 -9.42
2 Fram Reykjavik 12 19.1 -7.05
3 Breidablik 18 24.6 -6.62
4 Keflavik IF 26 30.3 -4.32
5 Valur Reykjavik 23 21.0 +1.99

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 12 May 23 – Aug 12 1 in 188
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 86
3 IF Leiftur 3 Jun 22 – Jul 6 1 in 71
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 27 – Sep 2 1 in 51
5 Grindavik 2 Jul 6 – Jul 16 1 in 14

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jun 5 – Jul 17 1 in 454
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 37
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 20 – Aug 12 1 in 16
4 Breidablik 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 12
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Jun 5 – Jun 15 1 in 8

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 12 – Sep 9 1 in 45
2 IF Leiftur 5 Jun 22 – Jul 26 1 in 40
3 IA Akranes 13 May 23 – Aug 19 1 in 12
4 Grindavik 3 Jul 6 – Jul 20 1 in 11
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 27 – Sep 2 1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 14 Jun 5 – Sep 9 1 in 860
2 Keflavik IF 7 Aug 3 – Sep 9 1 in 201
3 IA Akranes 2 Aug 19 – Aug 31 1 in 10
4 Breidablik 4 Jul 6 – Jul 26 1 in 9
5 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes75.48%15.83%5.38%1.94%0.81%0.31%0.19%0.04%0.02%
KR Reykjavik8.04%24.53%21.97%16.92%11.72%7.66%4.67%2.65%1.35%0.49%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar4.76%18.38%20.15%18.02%14.41%9.61%6.80%4.26%2.20%1.41%
Keflavik IF8.92%24.74%22.46%17.14%11.34%6.91%4.45%2.40%1.20%0.44%
IF Leiftur0.13%0.96%2.48%4.82%7.49%11.50%14.55%17.77%20.07%20.23%
Grindavik0.07%0.61%1.68%3.38%5.54%9.31%12.81%17.34%21.76%27.50%
Valur Reykjavik0.27%1.90%4.12%6.89%10.32%13.94%15.91%16.68%16.19%13.78%
Breidablik1.24%6.35%10.12%14.10%16.35%15.32%13.38%10.45%7.87%4.82%
FH Hafnarfjordur1.00%5.82%9.41%13.15%15.52%15.90%14.06%10.70%8.32%6.12%
Fram Reykjavik0.09%0.88%2.23%3.64%6.50%9.54%13.18%17.71%21.02%25.21%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% <0.1%
Keflavik IF 98.4% 1.6%
KR Reykjavik 98.2% 1.8%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 96.4% 3.6%
Breidablik 87.3% 12.7%
FH Hafnarfjordur 85.6% 14.4%
Valur Reykjavik 70.0% 30.0%
IF Leiftur 59.7% 40.3%
Fram Reykjavik 53.8% 46.2%
Grindavik 50.7% 49.3%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1995-05-23 IF Leiftur L 0-4 1454 1288 66.2% 17.0% 16.8% -75.1 0
1995-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1288 1454 16.8% 17.0% 66.2% +75.1 3
1995-05-23 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1328 1513 23.4% 17.9% 58.7% -8.0 0
1995-05-23 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1513 1328 58.7% 17.9% 23.4% +8.0 3
1995-05-23 Breidablik W 2-0 1592 1442 64.7% 17.2% 18.1% +12.5 3
1995-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1442 1592 18.1% 17.2% 64.7% -12.5 0
1995-05-23 Valur Reykjavik W 8-1 1441 1479 42.1% 18.5% 39.4% +65.9 3
1995-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-8 1479 1441 39.4% 18.5% 42.1% -65.9 0
1995-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1503 1535 42.9% 18.5% 38.6% -14.2 0
1995-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1535 1503 38.6% 18.5% 42.9% +14.2 3
1995-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1430 1413 49.5% 18.4% 32.0% +10.5 3
1995-05-27 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1413 1430 32.0% 18.4% 49.5% -10.5 0
1995-05-27 Grindavik W 2-0 1549 1320 71.5% 16.0% 12.5% +8.7 6
1995-05-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1320 1549 12.5% 16.0% 71.5% -8.7 0
1995-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1379 1507 29.8% 18.3% 51.9% +1.8 1
1995-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1507 1379 51.9% 18.3% 29.8% -1.8 4
1995-05-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1363 1489 30.1% 18.3% 51.6% -9.9 3
1995-05-27 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1489 1363 51.6% 18.3% 30.1% +9.9 3
1995-05-27 IA Akranes L 0-1 1521 1604 35.5% 18.5% 46.0% -12.1 3
1995-05-27 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1604 1521 46.0% 18.5% 35.5% +12.1 6
1995-06-05 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1311 1353 41.3% 18.6% 40.1% +12.0 3
1995-06-05 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1353 1311 40.1% 18.6% 41.3% -12.0 3
1995-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1616 1558 54.9% 18.1% 27.0% +15.7 9
1995-06-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1558 1616 27.0% 18.1% 54.9% -15.7 6
1995-06-05 Breidablik L 2-3 1505 1440 55.6% 18.1% 26.2% -15.9 4
1995-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1440 1505 26.2% 18.1% 55.6% +15.9 6
1995-06-05 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1499 1381 61.6% 17.6% 20.8% +12.4 6
1995-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1381 1499 20.8% 17.6% 61.6% -12.4 1
1995-06-06 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1402 1508 32.5% 18.4% 49.0% +1.3 1
1995-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1508 1402 49.0% 18.4% 32.5% -1.3 4
1995-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1542 1403 63.7% 17.3% 19.0% -18.1 6
1995-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1403 1542 19.0% 17.3% 63.7% +18.1 4
1995-06-14 IA Akranes L 0-2 1341 1632 14.5% 16.5% 69.0% -10.1 3
1995-06-14 @ IF Leiftur W 2-0 1632 1341 69.0% 16.5% 14.5% +10.1 12
1995-06-14 Grindavik W 2-1 1512 1323 68.2% 16.7% 15.1% +5.3 9
1995-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1323 1512 15.1% 16.7% 68.2% -5.3 3
1995-06-15 Breidablik W 1-0 1369 1456 35.0% 18.5% 46.5% +15.2 4
1995-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1456 1369 46.5% 18.5% 35.0% -15.2 6
1995-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1507 1490 49.6% 18.4% 32.0% +11.1 7
1995-06-15 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1490 1507 32.0% 18.4% 49.6% -11.1 4
1995-06-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1441 1518 36.4% 18.5% 45.1% +0.6 7
1995-06-21 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1518 1441 45.1% 18.5% 36.4% -0.6 8
1995-06-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1318 1384 38.0% 18.5% 43.5% +0.3 4
1995-06-22 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1384 1318 43.5% 18.5% 38.0% -0.3 5
1995-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1642 1517 62.3% 17.5% 20.2% +13.9 15
1995-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1517 1642 20.2% 17.5% 62.3% -13.9 9
1995-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-3 1478 1524 40.9% 18.6% 40.6% +25.1 7
1995-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-6 1524 1478 40.6% 18.6% 40.9% -25.1 6
1995-06-22 IF Leiftur L 1-2 1422 1331 58.5% 17.9% 23.6% -17.6 4
1995-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1331 1422 23.6% 17.9% 58.5% +17.6 6
1995-06-25 Breidablik L 2-4 1499 1441 54.7% 18.2% 27.1% -25.6 6
1995-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1441 1499 27.1% 18.2% 54.7% +25.6 10
1995-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-2 1318 1656 11.6% 15.7% 72.7% -4.0 4
1995-06-25 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1656 1318 72.7% 15.7% 11.6% +4.0 18
1995-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1349 1504 26.7% 18.1% 55.2% +16.7 9
1995-06-25 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1504 1349 55.2% 18.1% 26.7% -16.7 7
1995-06-25 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1503 1404 59.5% 17.8% 22.7% +8.2 12
1995-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1404 1503 22.7% 17.8% 59.5% -8.2 4
1995-07-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1518 1473 53.1% 18.2% 28.7% +19.1 11
1995-07-05 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1473 1518 28.7% 18.2% 53.1% -19.1 6
1995-07-06 IF Leiftur L 1-2 1467 1366 59.8% 17.8% 22.4% -17.9 10
1995-07-06 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1366 1467 22.4% 17.8% 59.8% +17.9 12
1995-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1660 1383 74.9% 15.1% 9.9% +10.0 21
1995-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1383 1660 9.9% 15.1% 74.9% -10.0 5
1995-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1487 1511 43.9% 18.5% 37.6% +12.7 10
1995-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1511 1487 37.6% 18.5% 43.9% -12.7 12
1995-07-06 Grindavik L 0-3 1396 1314 57.6% 18.0% 24.5% -50.3 4
1995-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1314 1396 24.5% 18.0% 57.6% +50.3 7
1995-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1364 1500 29.0% 18.3% 52.8% +17.0 10
1995-07-16 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1500 1364 52.8% 18.3% 29.0% -17.0 10
1995-07-16 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1670 1345 78.0% 14.2% 7.9% +2.9 24
1995-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1345 1670 7.9% 14.2% 78.0% -2.9 4
1995-07-16 Breidablik W 2-1 1498 1449 53.7% 18.2% 28.1% +9.3 15
1995-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1449 1498 28.1% 18.2% 53.7% -9.4 10
1995-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1373 1454 35.9% 18.5% 45.6% +40.8 8
1995-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1454 1373 45.6% 18.5% 35.9% -40.9 6
1995-07-20 Grindavik D 0-0 1440 1381 54.8% 18.1% 27.0% -2.3 11
1995-07-20 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1381 1440 27.0% 18.1% 54.8% +2.3 11
1995-07-20 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1413 1384 51.2% 18.3% 30.4% -1.1 7
1995-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1384 1413 30.4% 18.3% 51.2% +1.1 13
1995-07-20 IA Akranes L 1-3 1483 1673 22.9% 17.8% 59.3% -13.5 10
1995-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1673 1483 59.3% 17.8% 22.9% +13.5 27
1995-07-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1537 1508 51.1% 18.3% 30.6% -16.5 11
1995-07-20 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1508 1537 30.6% 18.3% 51.1% +16.5 18
1995-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1343 1414 37.2% 18.5% 44.3% +39.9 7
1995-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1414 1343 44.3% 18.5% 37.2% -39.9 8
1995-07-23 Keflavik IF L 2-4 1374 1520 27.7% 18.2% 54.1% -14.3 8
1995-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1520 1374 54.1% 18.2% 27.7% +14.3 14
1995-07-26 IA Akranes L 0-1 1437 1687 17.6% 17.1% 65.3% -6.5 11
1995-07-26 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1687 1437 65.3% 17.1% 17.6% +6.5 30
1995-07-26 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1412 1524 31.8% 18.4% 49.8% +1.0 8
1995-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1524 1412 49.8% 18.4% 31.8% -1.0 19
1995-07-26 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1385 1360 50.6% 18.4% 31.1% +17.7 16
1995-07-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1360 1385 31.1% 18.4% 50.6% -17.7 8
1995-07-26 Grindavik W 1-0 1535 1384 64.8% 17.2% 18.0% +6.6 17
1995-07-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1384 1535 18.0% 17.2% 64.8% -6.6 11
1995-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1382 1469 35.1% 18.5% 46.4% -19.6 7
1995-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1469 1382 46.4% 18.5% 35.1% +19.6 13
1995-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1377 1413 42.2% 18.5% 39.2% +12.4 14
1995-08-03 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1413 1377 39.2% 18.5% 42.2% -12.4 8
1995-08-03 Keflavik IF W 8-2 1693 1541 64.9% 17.2% 17.9% +23.5 33
1995-08-03 @ IA Akranes L 2-8 1541 1693 17.9% 17.2% 64.9% -23.5 17
1995-08-03 IF Leiftur W 2-0 1523 1402 61.9% 17.6% 20.6% +14.1 22
1995-08-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1402 1523 20.6% 17.6% 61.9% -14.1 16
1995-08-03 Breidablik L 0-3 1363 1431 37.7% 18.5% 43.8% -34.9 7
1995-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1431 1363 43.8% 18.5% 37.7% +34.9 14
1995-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1388 1518 29.7% 18.3% 52.0% +1.2 17
1995-08-09 @ IF Leiftur D 2-2 1518 1388 52.0% 18.3% 29.7% -1.2 18
1995-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1466 1489 44.1% 18.5% 37.4% -14.5 14
1995-08-12 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1489 1466 37.4% 18.5% 44.1% +14.5 16
1995-08-12 IA Akranes L 2-3 1401 1716 12.9% 16.1% 71.0% -4.3 8
1995-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1716 1401 71.0% 16.1% 12.9% +4.3 36
1995-08-12 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1342 1537 22.4% 17.8% 59.8% -18.7 8
1995-08-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1537 1342 59.8% 17.8% 22.4% +18.7 25
1995-08-12 Grindavik W 3-1 1390 1390 47.3% 18.5% 34.3% +19.2 20
1995-08-12 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1390 1390 34.3% 18.5% 47.3% -19.2 14
1995-08-12 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1516 1328 68.2% 16.7% 15.1% -4.1 19
1995-08-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1328 1516 15.1% 16.7% 68.2% +4.1 8
1995-08-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1451 1324 62.6% 17.5% 20.0% -18.7 14
1995-08-18 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1324 1451 20.0% 17.5% 62.6% +18.7 11
1995-08-18 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1370 1556 23.3% 17.9% 58.8% +18.8 17
1995-08-18 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1556 1370 58.8% 17.9% 23.3% -18.8 25
1995-08-19 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1721 1409 77.2% 14.4% 8.4% -4.0 37
1995-08-19 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1409 1721 8.4% 14.4% 77.2% +4.0 21
1995-08-19 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1503 1512 46.0% 18.5% 35.5% +10.8 19
1995-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1512 1503 35.5% 18.5% 46.0% -10.8 19
1995-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1332 1397 38.2% 18.5% 43.3% +39.1 11
1995-08-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1397 1332 43.3% 18.5% 38.2% -39.1 8
1995-08-22 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1514 1342 66.8% 16.9% 16.3% +5.7 22
1995-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1342 1514 16.3% 16.9% 66.8% -5.7 11
1995-08-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1357 1520 25.8% 18.1% 56.1% -15.1 8
1995-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1520 1357 56.1% 18.1% 25.8% +15.1 25
1995-08-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1413 1371 52.7% 18.3% 29.0% -39.2 21
1995-08-30 @ IF Leiftur W 4-1 1371 1413 29.0% 18.3% 52.7% +39.2 14
1995-08-30 Breidablik D 1-1 1501 1433 56.1% 18.1% 25.9% -2.2 20
1995-08-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1433 1501 25.9% 18.1% 56.1% +2.2 15
1995-08-31 Grindavik L 0-2 1337 1389 39.9% 18.6% 41.5% -25.2 11
1995-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1389 1337 41.5% 18.6% 39.9% +25.2 20
1995-08-31 IA Akranes W 3-2 1537 1717 24.0% 17.9% 58.1% +16.6 28
1995-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1717 1537 58.1% 17.9% 24.0% -16.6 37
1995-09-02 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1435 1342 58.8% 17.9% 23.4% +7.9 18
1995-09-02 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1342 1435 23.4% 17.9% 58.8% -7.9 8
1995-09-02 IF Leiftur W 4-0 1535 1374 65.8% 17.1% 17.1% +22.6 28
1995-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1374 1535 17.1% 17.1% 65.8% -22.6 21
1995-09-03 Grindavik W 4-0 1700 1414 75.5% 14.9% 9.5% +12.5 40
1995-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1414 1700 9.5% 14.9% 75.5% -12.5 20
1995-09-04 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1499 1312 68.2% 16.7% 15.2% -4.1 21
1995-09-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1312 1499 15.2% 16.7% 68.2% +4.1 12
1995-09-04 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1410 1554 28.0% 18.2% 53.8% +16.3 17
1995-09-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1554 1410 53.8% 18.2% 28.0% -16.3 28
1995-09-08 IA Akranes L 1-2 1316 1713 8.7% 14.6% 76.7% -3.0 12
1995-09-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1713 1316 76.7% 14.6% 8.7% +3.0 43
1995-09-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1334 1495 26.0% 18.1% 55.9% +1.7 9
1995-09-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1495 1334 55.9% 18.1% 26.0% -1.6 22
1995-09-09 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1402 1427 43.8% 18.5% 37.6% -13.6 20
1995-09-09 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1427 1402 37.6% 18.5% 43.8% +13.6 20
1995-09-09 Breidablik W 3-1 1351 1443 34.4% 18.5% 47.1% +25.0 24
1995-09-09 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1443 1351 47.1% 18.5% 34.4% -25.0 18
1995-09-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1538 1557 44.5% 18.5% 36.9% +18.3 31
1995-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1557 1538 36.9% 18.5% 44.5% -18.3 28
1995-09-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1418 1556 28.6% 18.2% 53.2% -16.5 18
1995-09-17 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1556 1418 53.2% 18.2% 28.6% +16.5 34
1995-09-17 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1336 1313 50.4% 18.4% 31.2% +10.3 12
1995-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1313 1336 31.2% 18.4% 50.4% -10.2 12
1995-09-17 Grindavik W 3-1 1539 1388 64.8% 17.2% 18.0% +10.8 31
1995-09-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1388 1539 18.0% 17.2% 64.8% -10.8 20
1995-09-17 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1493 1376 61.5% 17.6% 20.9% +6.8 25
1995-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1376 1493 20.9% 17.6% 61.5% -6.8 24
1995-09-17 IA Akranes L 1-4 1440 1716 15.6% 16.8% 67.7% -13.3 20
1995-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1716 1440 67.7% 16.8% 15.6% +13.3 46
1995-09-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1302 1427 30.2% 18.3% 51.4% -17.3 12
1995-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1427 1302 51.4% 18.3% 30.2% +17.3 23
1995-09-23 Breidablik W 6-3 1377 1401 44.0% 18.5% 37.5% +23.5 23
1995-09-23 @ Grindavik L 3-6 1401 1377 37.5% 18.5% 44.0% -23.5 18
1995-09-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1729 1550 67.4% 16.8% 15.8% +17.4 49
1995-09-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-5 1550 1729 15.8% 16.8% 67.4% -17.4 31
1995-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1369 1346 50.3% 18.4% 31.3% -15.3 24
1995-09-23 @ IF Leiftur W 2-1 1346 1369 31.3% 18.4% 50.3% +15.3 15
1995-09-23 Keflavik IF D 3-3 1572 1500 56.5% 18.0% 25.5% -1.4 35
1995-09-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 1500 1572 25.5% 18.0% 56.5% +1.4 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-05-23 16.77% IF Leiftur 1288 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1454 0
2 1995-06-14 19.00% Valur Reykjavik 1403 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1542 2
3 1995-08-18 19.96% Fram Reykjavik 1324 2 @ Breidablik 1451 1
4 1995-07-06 22.45% IF Leiftur 1366 2 @ Breidablik 1467 1
5 1995-08-18 23.33% @ Grindavik 1370 1 KR Reykjavik 1556 0
6 1995-06-22 23.59% IF Leiftur 1331 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1422 1
7 1995-08-31 24.01% @ KR Reykjavik 1537 3 IA Akranes 1717 2
8 1995-07-06 24.48% Grindavik 1314 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1396 0
9 1995-06-05 26.25% Breidablik 1440 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1505 2
10 1995-06-25 26.71% @ IF Leiftur 1349 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1504 1
11 1995-06-25 27.14% Breidablik 1441 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1499 2
12 1995-09-04 27.95% @ Valur Reykjavik 1410 2 KR Reykjavik 1554 1
13 1995-07-16 28.97% @ Grindavik 1364 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1500 0
14 1995-08-30 29.00% Valur Reykjavik 1371 4 @ IF Leiftur 1413 1
15 1995-07-20 30.55% KR Reykjavik 1508 1 @ Keflavik IF 1537 0
16 1995-09-23 31.30% FH Hafnarfjordur 1346 2 @ IF Leiftur 1369 1
17 1995-09-09 34.45% @ IF Leiftur 1351 3 Breidablik 1443 1
18 1995-06-15 35.03% @ Fram Reykjavik 1369 1 Breidablik 1456 0
19 1995-07-17 35.92% @ Fram Reykjavik 1373 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1454 0
20 1995-07-20 37.17% @ Valur Reykjavik 1343 3 Fram Reykjavik 1414 0
21 1995-08-12 37.36% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1489 1 @ Breidablik 1466 0
22 1995-09-09 37.65% Valur Reykjavik 1427 2 @ Grindavik 1402 1
23 1995-08-19 38.17% @ Valur Reykjavik 1332 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1397 0
24 1995-05-23 38.57% FH Hafnarfjordur 1535 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1503 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-23 75.09 IF Leiftur 4 1288 16.77% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1454 66.25%
2 1995-05-23 65.93 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 1441 42.08% Valur Reykjavik 1 1479 39.38%
3 1995-07-06 50.34 Grindavik 3 1314 24.48% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1396 57.56%
4 1995-07-17 40.86 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1373 35.92% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1454 45.58%
5 1995-07-20 39.89 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1343 37.17% Fram Reykjavik 0 1414 44.30%
6 1995-08-30 39.16 Valur Reykjavik 4 1371 29.00% @ IF Leiftur 1 1413 52.73%
7 1995-08-19 39.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1332 38.17% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1397 43.29%
8 1995-08-03 34.88 Breidablik 3 1431 43.81% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1363 37.66%
9 1995-06-25 25.61 Breidablik 4 1441 27.14% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1499 54.70%
10 1995-08-31 25.19 Grindavik 2 1389 41.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1337 39.90%
11 1995-06-22 25.08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1478 40.87% FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1524 40.59%
12 1995-09-09 25.05 @ IF Leiftur 3 1351 34.45% Breidablik 1 1443 47.08%
13 1995-08-03 23.51 @ IA Akranes 8 1693 64.93% Keflavik IF 2 1541 17.89%
14 1995-09-23 23.51 @ Grindavik 6 1377 43.95% Breidablik 3 1401 37.52%
15 1995-09-02 22.56 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1535 65.81% IF Leiftur 0 1374 17.14%
16 1995-07-27 19.64 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1469 46.38% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1382 35.13%
17 1995-08-12 19.23 @ IF Leiftur 3 1390 47.26% Grindavik 1 1390 34.27%
18 1995-07-05 19.06 @ Keflavik IF 2 1518 53.06% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1473 28.68%
19 1995-08-18 18.76 @ Grindavik 1 1370 23.33% KR Reykjavik 0 1556 58.81%
20 1995-08-18 18.74 Fram Reykjavik 2 1324 19.96% @ Breidablik 1 1451 62.56%
21 1995-08-12 18.72 KR Reykjavik 4 1537 59.83% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1342 22.40%
22 1995-09-09 18.30 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1538 44.55% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1557 36.93%
23 1995-06-14 18.07 Valur Reykjavik 3 1403 19.00% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1542 63.66%
24 1995-07-06 17.95 IF Leiftur 2 1366 22.45% @ Breidablik 1 1467 59.78%
25 1995-07-26 17.70 @ IF Leiftur 3 1385 50.56% Fram Reykjavik 1 1360 31.08%