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1994 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

39 points · 12th Title

Last Title: 1993.0

Relegated

Stjarnan

11 pts

Thor Akureyri · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Keflavik IF

5.38 points above expected

31 points · 25.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

10.12 points below expected

11 points · 21.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 12 3 3 39 35 11 +24 40.03 -1.03
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 11 3 4 36 26 16 +10 34.75 +1.25
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 7 3 31 36 24 +12 25.62 +5.38
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 25 25 0 22.71 +5.29
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 27 28 20 +8 26.46 +0.54
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 8 6 20 27 30 -3 19.08 +0.92
7 Breidablik 18 6 2 10 20 23 35 -12 15.52 +4.48
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 4 7 7 19 22 29 -7 20.06 -1.06
9 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 3 5 10 14 27 38 -11 20.14 -6.14
10 Stjarnan Relegated 18 2 5 11 11 18 39 -21 21.12 -10.12

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 31 25.62 +5.38
2 Valur Reykjavik 28 22.71 +5.29
3 Breidablik 20 15.52 +4.48
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 34.75 +1.25
5 Fram Reykjavik 20 19.08 +0.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 11 21.12 -10.12
2 Thor Akureyri 14 20.14 -6.14
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 20.06 -1.06
4 IA Akranes 39 40.03 -1.03
5 KR Reykjavik 27 26.46 +0.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 3 Sep 10 – Sep 24 1 in 51
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 14 1 in 46
3 Keflavik IF 3 Sep 11 – Sep 24 1 in 25
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 12 – Jul 21 1 in 25
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 5 – Jun 24 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 2 Sep 10 – Sep 17 1 in 52
2 Stjarnan 5 Jul 21 – Aug 21 1 in 51
3 Thor Akureyri 4 Sep 3 – Sep 24 1 in 34
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 28 – Sep 3 1 in 18
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 6 – Jun 16 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 28 – Sep 17 1 in 29
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jul 11 – Aug 14 1 in 22
3 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 24 – Aug 14 1 in 17
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 24 – Jul 21 1 in 15
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 5 – Jun 16 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 8 May 23 – Jul 7 1 in 17
2 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 1 – Jun 24 1 in 12
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jul 7 – Jul 21 1 in 10
4 IA Akranes 2 Jun 24 – Jul 7 1 in 9
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 24 – Jul 21 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1712 39 -12 9 11.5 -2.5
FH Hafnarfjordur 1606 36 +9 12 9.9 +2.1
Keflavik IF 1515 31 +5 9 7.1 +1.9
Valur Reykjavik 1444 28 +12 9 6.5 +2.5
KR Reykjavik 1485 27 +7 10 6.8 +3.2
Breidablik 1363 20 +36 9 4.8 +4.2
Fram Reykjavik 1376 20 -1 5 5.4 -0.4
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1390 19 -8 4 5.1 -1.1
Thor Akureyri 1367 14 -22 3 6.0 -3.0
Stjarnan 1347 11 -27 3 5.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI STJ TA VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
1.12
0-1-1
2.28
0-0-2
0.67
1-0-1
2.15
1-0-1
1.80
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.05
2-0-0
1.96
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
4.48
 —
1-0-1
4.31
0-2-0
1.86
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
4.25
2-0-0
4.12
0-0-2
4.01
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
1.25
 —
0-0-2
0.86
0-2-0
2.55
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
2.34
0-2-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.19
IA Akranes
2-0-0
5.07
0-2-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.82
 —
2-0-0
4.72
0-1-1
4.36
0-0-2
4.34
2-0-0
4.71
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
4.63
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.28
0-0-2
1.37
0-2-0
2.86
0-0-2
0.94
 —
1-1-0
1.98
1-1-0
1.97
0-1-1
2.81
1-1-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.62
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
1.83
1-1-0
3.48
1-1-0
1.21
0-1-1
3.46
 —
0-2-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.46
0-1-1
3.35
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.76
0-0-2
1.89
1-1-0
3.54
2-0-0
1.23
0-1-1
3.47
0-2-0
2.73
 —
1-1-0
3.43
2-0-0
3.47
0-2-0
3.18
Stjarnan
1-0-1
3.01
0-1-1
1.30
0-1-1
3.08
0-0-2
0.94
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
2.21
0-1-1
2.01
 —
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.49
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
3.39
0-0-2
1.40
0-2-0
2.94
0-0-2
0.92
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
1.98
0-0-2
1.98
1-1-0
2.75
 —
1-0-1
2.47
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
3.48
2-0-0
1.50
1-0-1
3.24
0-0-2
1.01
1-1-0
2.79
1-1-0
2.08
0-2-0
2.25
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.94
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.51 +12.0
Allowed 0.92 -9.5
Differential 0.90 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.89%7.22%4.44%2.22%0.56%1.11%24.44%
17.22%8.89%10.00%3.33%1.67%2.22%33.33%
24.44%10.00%6.67%1.67%0.56%—23.33%
32.22%3.33%1.67%3.33%1.11%—11.67%
40.56%1.67%0.56%1.11%——3.89%
5+1.11%2.22%————3.33%
Total24.44%33.33%23.33%11.67%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.86
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%——5.56%11.11%33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.94 -0.67
SD 1.18 1.76 2.43
CV 0.92 0.91 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
122.22%5.56%11.11%———38.89%
2—22.22%————22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%50.00%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.89 +0.56
SD 1.25 0.83 1.10
CV 0.86 0.94 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
1—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
2—16.67%22.22%———38.89%
35.56%——11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%44.44%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.04 0.91 1.29
CV 0.70 0.54 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%———22.22%
111.11%—11.11%———22.22%
211.11%16.67%————27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.61 +1.33
SD 1.73 0.78 1.97
CV 0.89 1.27 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%——11.11%44.44%
2—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.61 -0.39
SD 1.40 1.46 2.00
CV 1.14 0.91 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
1—11.11%————11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.11 +0.44
SD 1.42 1.13 1.76
CV 0.92 1.02 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
25.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.33 +0.67
SD 1.19 0.91 1.37
CV 0.59 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%16.67%—44.44%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%22.22%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.17 -1.17
SD 0.77 1.29 1.38
CV 0.77 0.60 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
1—11.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.11 -0.61
SD 1.50 1.49 1.91
CV 1.00 0.71 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%—————5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.42 1.94
CV 0.96 1.02 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1712 39 40.03 -1.03 41.0% 28 31 37 40 43 47 50
FH Hafnarfjordur 1606 36 34.75 +1.25 61.0% 25 26 30 35 38 44 47
Keflavik IF 1515 31 25.62 +5.38 91.0% 14 18 22 26 29 32 38
KR Reykjavik 1485 27 26.46 +0.54 62.0% 15 18 24 27 29 34 40
Valur Reykjavik 1444 28 22.71 +5.29 85.0% 13 14 18 22 27 30 37
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1390 19 20.06 -1.06 46.0% 4 11 16 20 23 29 33
Fram Reykjavik 1376 20 19.08 +0.92 65.0% 8 11 16 19 22 27 34
Thor Akureyri 1367 14 20.14 -6.14 13.0% 7 12 17 20 23 28 32
Breidablik 1363 20 15.52 +4.48 87.0% 6 8 12 15 18 24 28
Stjarnan 1347 11 21.12 -10.12 3.0% 9 13 18 21 24 30 35

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.11%
No Edge
36.67%27.78%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.
221 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
77%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.350.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.89 * Some Luck: 3.89 to 5.83 * Lucky: 5.83 to 7.78 * Wild Swing: 7.78 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.71 * Off: 1.71 to 2.28 * Way Off: 2.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.71 points
Some Luck
04.8612
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.423
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
Keflavik IF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Stjarnan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 120.81
1.68
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Notable Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.90
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.75
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.04
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.73
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.122
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes77.00%20.00%3.00%———————
FH Hafnarfjordur18.00%58.00%11.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%————
Keflavik IF2.00%5.00%25.00%20.00%16.00%20.00%3.00%8.00%1.00%—
Valur Reykjavik1.00%3.00%16.00%15.00%10.00%14.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%
KR Reykjavik2.00%8.00%22.00%28.00%15.00%11.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%—
Fram Reykjavik—1.00%1.00%5.00%13.00%12.00%19.00%20.00%17.00%12.00%
Breidablik——2.00%1.00%2.00%7.00%7.00%11.00%26.00%44.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—1.00%8.00%5.00%12.00%13.00%13.00%21.00%15.00%12.00%
Thor Akureyri—2.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%10.00%27.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%
Stjarnan—2.00%7.00%8.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%14.00%15.00%15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 100% —
IA Akranes 100% —
Keflavik IF 99.00% 1.00%
KR Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Valur Reykjavik 83.00% 17.00%
Thor Akureyri 76.00% 24.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 73.00% 27.00%
Fram Reykjavik 71.00% 29.00%
Stjarnan 70.00% 30.00%
Breidablik 30.00% 70.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1994-05-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-535.9 1353 1455 23.35% 27.85% 48.80%-0.45 -22.4 0
1994-05-23 @ Breidablik W 5-035.9 1455 1353 48.80% 27.85% 23.35%+0.45 +22.4 3
1994-05-23 Stjarnan D 0-050.0 1360 1423 27.52% 28.86% 43.62%-0.27 +0.7 1
1994-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-050.0 1423 1360 43.62% 28.86% 27.52%+0.27 -0.7 1
1994-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-065.5 1715 1602 51.22% 27.20% 21.57%+0.53 -1.3 1
1994-05-23 @ IA Akranes D 0-065.5 1602 1715 21.57% 27.20% 51.22%-0.53 +1.3 1
1994-05-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-050.2 1406 1397 37.15% 29.43% 33.42%+0.06 -0.2 1
1994-05-23 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-050.2 1397 1406 33.42% 29.43% 37.15%-0.06 +0.2 1
1994-05-23 Keflavik IF D 1-156.9 1438 1457 33.14% 29.42% 37.44%-0.07 +0.2 1
1994-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-156.9 1457 1438 37.44% 29.42% 33.14%+0.07 -0.2 1
1994-05-26 Thor Akureyri W 1-044.0 1603 1406 61.16% 23.45% 15.40%+0.91 +3.4 4
1994-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-144.0 1406 1603 15.40% 23.45% 61.16%-0.91 -3.4 1
1994-05-26 Valur Reykjavik D 1-155.2 1397 1438 30.30% 29.23% 40.46%-0.17 +0.4 2
1994-05-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.2 1438 1397 40.46% 29.23% 30.30%+0.17 -0.4 2
1994-05-26 Breidablik W 4-033.7 1457 1331 52.79% 26.73% 20.49%+0.59 +16.1 4
1994-05-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-433.7 1331 1457 20.49% 26.73% 52.79%-0.59 -16.1 0
1994-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-242.2 1422 1478 28.47% 29.01% 42.52%-0.23 -11.3 1
1994-05-26 @ Stjarnan W 2-042.2 1478 1422 42.52% 29.01% 28.47%+0.23 +11.3 6
1994-05-27 IA Akranes L 1-246.9 1360 1714 8.57% 15.43% 76.00%-1.59 -1.5 1
1994-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.9 1714 1360 76.00% 15.43% 8.57%+1.59 +1.6 4
1994-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-043.1 1314 1398 25.28% 28.40% 46.32%-0.36 +16.2 3
1994-06-01 @ Breidablik L 0-243.1 1398 1314 46.32% 28.40% 25.28%+0.36 -16.2 2
1994-06-01 Stjarnan W 3-039.3 1716 1411 72.26% 17.62% 10.12%+1.40 +5.6 7
1994-06-01 @ IA Akranes L 0-339.3 1411 1716 10.12% 17.62% 72.26%-1.40 -5.6 1
1994-06-01 Keflavik IF D 1-159.2 1489 1473 38.13% 29.39% 32.47%+0.09 -0.2 7
1994-06-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-159.2 1473 1489 32.47% 29.39% 38.13%-0.09 +0.2 5
1994-06-01 Fram Reykjavik D 3-363.0 1403 1359 42.05% 29.07% 28.88%+0.22 -0.3 2
1994-06-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 3-363.0 1359 1403 28.88% 29.07% 42.05%-0.22 +0.3 2
1994-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-058.3 1437 1607 17.72% 25.19% 57.09%-0.75 +10.1 5
1994-06-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-158.3 1607 1437 57.09% 25.19% 17.72%+0.75 -10.1 4
1994-06-05 Breidablik W 1-038.7 1597 1331 68.49% 19.74% 11.77%+1.22 +2.4 7
1994-06-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-138.7 1331 1597 11.77% 19.74% 68.49%-1.22 -2.5 3
1994-06-05 Thor Akureyri W 2-149.2 1721 1403 73.56% 16.87% 9.57%+1.46 +1.8 10
1994-06-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-249.2 1403 1721 9.57% 16.87% 73.56%-1.46 -1.8 2
1994-06-05 KR Reykjavik W 1-050.6 1382 1489 22.88% 27.69% 49.43%-0.47 +9.0 5
1994-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-150.6 1489 1382 49.43% 27.69% 22.88%+0.47 -9.0 7
1994-06-05 Keflavik IF D 1-156.6 1405 1473 27.04% 28.78% 44.18%-0.29 +0.7 2
1994-06-05 @ Stjarnan D 1-156.6 1473 1405 44.18% 28.78% 27.04%+0.29 -0.7 6
1994-06-06 Valur Reykjavik W 3-042.9 1359 1448 24.75% 28.26% 46.99%-0.38 +23.8 5
1994-06-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-342.9 1448 1359 46.99% 28.26% 24.75%+0.38 -23.8 5
1994-06-09 Fram Reykjavik D 2-258.1 1328 1383 28.52% 29.02% 42.46%-0.23 +0.4 4
1994-06-09 @ Breidablik D 2-258.1 1383 1328 42.46% 29.02% 28.52%+0.23 -0.4 6
1994-06-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-052.1 1472 1391 47.12% 28.23% 24.65%+0.39 -1.0 7
1994-06-09 @ Keflavik IF D 0-052.1 1391 1472 24.65% 28.23% 47.12%-0.39 +1.0 6
1994-06-09 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-149.5 1480 1599 21.72% 27.26% 51.01%-0.52 -4.8 7
1994-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-049.5 1599 1480 51.01% 27.26% 21.72%+0.52 +4.8 10
1994-06-10 Stjarnan D 0-050.3 1401 1406 35.07% 29.46% 35.47%-0.01 +0.0 3
1994-06-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-050.3 1406 1401 35.47% 29.46% 35.07%+0.01 -0.0 3
1994-06-10 IA Akranes L 0-145.6 1424 1723 10.65% 18.33% 71.02%-1.34 -2.2 5
1994-06-10 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-045.6 1723 1424 71.02% 18.33% 10.65%+1.34 +2.2 13
1994-06-15 KR Reykjavik L 0-337.4 1383 1475 24.35% 28.15% 47.50%-0.40 -14.4 6
1994-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-037.4 1475 1383 47.50% 28.15% 24.35%+0.40 +14.4 10
1994-06-16 Keflavik IF W 2-153.6 1604 1471 53.61% 26.46% 19.93%+0.62 +4.1 13
1994-06-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-253.6 1471 1604 19.93% 26.46% 53.61%-0.62 -4.1 7
1994-06-16 Breidablik W 6-035.5 1725 1329 80.14% 12.92% 6.94%+1.82 +6.7 16
1994-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-635.5 1329 1725 6.94% 12.92% 80.14%-1.82 -6.7 4
1994-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-259.6 1406 1392 37.90% 29.41% 32.70%+0.08 -0.1 4
1994-06-16 @ Stjarnan D 2-259.6 1392 1406 32.70% 29.41% 37.90%-0.08 +0.2 7
1994-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 5-144.5 1401 1422 32.91% 29.41% 37.68%-0.08 +21.9 6
1994-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-544.5 1422 1401 37.68% 29.41% 32.91%+0.08 -21.9 5
1994-06-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-153.7 1322 1423 23.48% 27.89% 48.63%-0.44 +1.0 5
1994-06-24 @ Breidablik D 1-153.7 1423 1322 48.63% 27.89% 23.48%+0.44 -1.0 7
1994-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-143.2 1392 1608 14.72% 22.85% 62.43%-0.96 -3.2 7
1994-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.2 1608 1392 62.43% 22.85% 14.72%+0.96 +3.2 16
1994-06-24 Fram Reykjavik D 2-261.0 1467 1368 49.38% 27.71% 22.92%+0.47 -0.8 8
1994-06-24 @ Keflavik IF D 2-261.0 1368 1467 22.92% 27.71% 49.38%-0.47 +0.8 7
1994-06-24 IA Akranes D 0-065.7 1489 1732 13.28% 21.44% 65.28%-1.08 +2.4 11
1994-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-065.7 1732 1489 65.28% 21.44% 13.28%+1.08 -2.4 17
1994-06-25 Stjarnan W 3-255.2 1400 1406 34.92% 29.46% 35.62%-0.01 +6.3 8
1994-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-355.2 1406 1400 35.62% 29.46% 34.92%+0.01 -6.3 4
1994-07-06 Breidablik L 1-348.9 1406 1323 47.31% 28.19% 24.50%+0.39 -14.3 8
1994-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-148.9 1323 1406 24.50% 28.19% 47.31%-0.39 +14.3 8
1994-07-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-258.8 1369 1389 33.05% 29.42% 37.53%-0.07 +0.1 8
1994-07-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-258.8 1389 1369 37.53% 29.42% 33.05%+0.07 -0.1 8
1994-07-07 Keflavik IF L 0-261.3 1729 1466 68.21% 19.89% 11.90%+1.21 -21.8 17
1994-07-07 @ IA Akranes W 2-061.3 1466 1729 11.90% 19.89% 68.21%-1.21 +21.8 11
1994-07-07 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-162.9 1400 1611 15.00% 23.10% 61.91%-0.94 +1.9 5
1994-07-07 @ Stjarnan D 1-162.9 1611 1400 61.91% 23.10% 15.00%+0.94 -1.9 17
1994-07-07 KR Reykjavik W 4-256.8 1422 1492 26.77% 28.72% 44.51%-0.30 +12.2 10
1994-07-07 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-456.8 1492 1422 44.51% 28.72% 26.77%+0.30 -12.2 11
1994-07-11 Stjarnan L 1-246.3 1337 1402 27.38% 28.84% 43.78%-0.27 -5.5 8
1994-07-11 @ Breidablik W 2-146.3 1402 1337 43.78% 28.84% 27.38%+0.27 +5.5 8
1994-07-11 IA Akranes L 0-240.2 1388 1708 9.84% 17.25% 72.91%-1.43 -3.7 8
1994-07-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-040.2 1708 1388 72.91% 17.25% 9.84%+1.43 +3.7 20
1994-07-11 Thor Akureyri W 2-151.1 1488 1434 43.42% 28.89% 27.69%+0.26 +5.5 14
1994-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-251.1 1434 1488 27.69% 28.89% 43.42%-0.26 -5.5 10
1994-07-11 Valur Reykjavik D 0-052.4 1479 1392 47.93% 28.06% 24.02%+0.42 -1.0 12
1994-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-052.4 1392 1479 24.02% 28.06% 47.93%-0.42 +1.0 9
1994-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 1-262.2 1609 1369 65.83% 21.15% 13.01%+1.11 -10.6 17
1994-07-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-162.2 1369 1609 13.01% 21.15% 65.83%-1.11 +10.6 11
1994-07-21 IA Akranes D 0-065.3 1599 1711 22.33% 27.50% 50.17%-0.49 +1.2 18
1994-07-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-065.3 1711 1599 50.17% 27.50% 22.33%+0.49 -1.2 21
1994-07-21 Thor Akureyri W 6-144.7 1385 1428 29.88% 29.19% 40.93%-0.18 +28.5 11
1994-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-644.7 1428 1385 40.93% 29.19% 29.88%+0.18 -28.5 10
1994-07-21 Valur Reykjavik D 3-366.5 1494 1393 49.62% 27.64% 22.74%+0.47 -0.7 15
1994-07-21 @ Keflavik IF D 3-366.5 1393 1494 22.74% 27.64% 49.62%-0.47 +0.7 10
1994-07-21 Breidablik L 0-150.2 1478 1332 55.33% 25.86% 18.82%+0.68 -9.9 12
1994-07-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-050.2 1332 1478 18.82% 25.86% 55.33%-0.68 +9.9 11
1994-07-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-251.0 1407 1380 39.72% 29.30% 30.98%+0.14 -7.2 8
1994-07-21 @ Stjarnan W 2-151.0 1380 1407 30.98% 29.30% 39.72%-0.14 +7.2 14
1994-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-144.1 1393 1413 33.03% 29.42% 37.55%-0.07 +21.9 13
1994-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-544.1 1413 1393 37.55% 29.42% 33.03%+0.07 -21.9 11
1994-07-28 Keflavik IF L 1-341.9 1342 1493 19.05% 25.99% 54.95%-0.67 -6.9 11
1994-07-28 @ Breidablik W 3-141.9 1493 1342 54.95% 25.99% 19.05%+0.67 +6.9 18
1994-07-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-039.9 1710 1387 73.99% 16.62% 9.39%+1.48 +3.5 24
1994-07-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-239.9 1387 1710 9.39% 16.62% 73.99%-1.48 -3.5 14
1994-07-28 Stjarnan W 2-040.4 1469 1400 45.40% 28.57% 26.03%+0.33 +10.5 15
1994-07-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-240.4 1400 1469 26.03% 28.57% 45.40%-0.33 -10.5 8
1994-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.7 1400 1600 15.69% 23.70% 60.61%-0.89 -5.6 10
1994-07-28 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-145.7 1600 1400 60.61% 23.70% 15.69%+0.89 +5.6 21
1994-08-04 Valur Reykjavik L 0-158.0 1605 1415 60.38% 23.80% 15.82%+0.88 -10.6 21
1994-08-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-058.0 1415 1605 15.82% 23.80% 60.38%-0.88 +10.6 16
1994-08-04 Breidablik W 1-041.1 1391 1335 43.78% 28.84% 27.39%+0.27 +5.8 14
1994-08-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-141.1 1335 1391 27.39% 28.84% 43.78%-0.27 -5.8 11
1994-08-04 KR Reykjavik D 2-265.2 1500 1479 38.78% 29.36% 31.86%+0.11 -0.2 19
1994-08-04 @ Keflavik IF D 2-265.2 1479 1500 31.86% 29.36% 38.78%-0.11 +0.2 16
1994-08-04 IA Akranes L 1-443.2 1389 1714 9.65% 16.98% 73.37%-1.45 -4.4 8
1994-08-04 @ Stjarnan W 4-143.2 1714 1389 73.37% 16.98% 9.65%+1.45 +4.4 27
1994-08-07 Thor Akureyri D 1-153.8 1383 1394 34.26% 29.46% 36.29%-0.03 +0.1 15
1994-08-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.8 1394 1383 36.29% 29.46% 34.26%+0.03 -0.1 11
1994-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 3-451.8 1329 1595 12.13% 20.16% 67.70%-1.19 -2.2 11
1994-08-14 @ Breidablik W 4-351.8 1595 1329 67.70% 20.16% 12.13%+1.19 +2.2 24
1994-08-14 Stjarnan W 4-142.0 1500 1385 51.38% 27.16% 21.46%+0.54 +10.9 22
1994-08-14 @ Keflavik IF L 1-442.0 1385 1500 21.46% 27.16% 51.38%-0.54 -10.9 8
1994-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-156.7 1479 1397 47.18% 28.22% 24.60%+0.39 -0.9 17
1994-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-156.7 1397 1479 24.60% 28.22% 47.18%-0.39 +0.9 15
1994-08-14 IA Akranes L 0-338.5 1394 1718 9.67% 17.00% 73.33%-1.45 -5.2 11
1994-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-038.5 1718 1394 73.33% 17.00% 9.67%+1.45 +5.2 30
1994-08-14 Fram Reykjavik W 1-043.3 1426 1383 41.82% 29.10% 29.09%+0.21 +6.1 19
1994-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-143.3 1383 1426 29.09% 29.10% 41.82%-0.21 -6.1 15
1994-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-263.4 1597 1478 51.88% 27.01% 21.11%+0.56 -8.8 24
1994-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-163.4 1478 1597 21.11% 27.01% 51.88%-0.56 +8.8 20
1994-08-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-150.9 1723 1432 71.00% 18.34% 10.66%+1.34 +2.1 33
1994-08-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-250.9 1432 1723 10.66% 18.34% 71.00%-1.34 -2.0 19
1994-08-20 Keflavik IF W 2-156.9 1398 1510 22.37% 27.51% 50.11%-0.49 +8.6 18
1994-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-256.9 1510 1398 50.11% 27.51% 22.37%+0.49 -8.6 22
1994-08-21 Thor Akureyri L 2-353.7 1374 1389 33.70% 29.44% 36.86%-0.05 -6.1 8
1994-08-21 @ Stjarnan W 3-253.7 1389 1374 36.86% 29.44% 33.70%+0.05 +6.1 14
1994-08-22 Breidablik W 2-146.0 1377 1327 42.96% 28.95% 28.09%+0.25 +5.6 18
1994-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-246.0 1327 1377 28.09% 28.95% 42.96%-0.25 -5.6 11
1994-09-03 IA Akranes L 0-139.6 1321 1725 6.94% 12.93% 80.13%-1.82 -1.3 11
1994-09-03 @ Breidablik W 1-039.6 1725 1321 80.13% 12.93% 6.94%+1.82 +1.3 36
1994-09-03 Stjarnan L 1-251.2 1407 1368 41.30% 29.15% 29.55%+0.19 -7.4 18
1994-09-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-151.2 1368 1407 29.55% 29.15% 41.30%-0.19 +7.4 11
1994-09-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-256.2 1502 1588 24.96% 28.32% 46.73%-0.37 -5.1 22
1994-09-03 @ Keflavik IF W 2-156.2 1588 1502 46.73% 28.32% 24.96%+0.37 +5.1 27
1994-09-03 Fram Reykjavik D 3-366.1 1487 1383 50.06% 27.53% 22.41%+0.49 -0.7 21
1994-09-03 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-366.1 1383 1487 22.41% 27.53% 50.06%-0.49 +0.7 19
1994-09-03 Thor Akureyri W 1-044.0 1430 1395 40.76% 29.21% 30.03%+0.18 +6.2 22
1994-09-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-144.0 1395 1430 30.03% 29.21% 40.76%-0.18 -6.2 14
1994-09-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.4 1593 1399 60.82% 23.60% 15.58%+0.90 +3.2 30
1994-09-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-248.4 1399 1593 15.58% 23.60% 60.82%-0.90 -3.2 18
1994-09-10 KR Reykjavik L 1-269.7 1727 1487 65.83% 21.15% 13.02%+1.11 -10.6 36
1994-09-10 @ IA Akranes W 2-169.7 1487 1727 13.02% 21.15% 65.83%-1.11 +10.6 24
1994-09-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-344.9 1375 1436 27.81% 28.91% 43.28%-0.26 -9.6 11
1994-09-10 @ Stjarnan W 3-144.9 1436 1375 43.28% 28.91% 27.81%+0.26 +9.6 25
1994-09-10 Breidablik L 1-348.1 1389 1320 45.44% 28.56% 25.99%+0.33 -13.8 14
1994-09-10 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-148.1 1320 1389 25.99% 28.56% 45.44%-0.33 +13.8 14
1994-09-11 Keflavik IF L 1-247.7 1384 1497 22.30% 27.49% 50.21%-0.50 -4.6 19
1994-09-11 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.7 1497 1384 50.21% 27.49% 22.30%+0.50 +4.6 25
1994-09-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-045.1 1334 1446 22.40% 27.52% 50.07%-0.49 +17.2 17
1994-09-17 @ Breidablik L 0-245.1 1446 1334 50.07% 27.52% 22.40%+0.49 -17.2 25
1994-09-17 Stjarnan W 4-140.7 1596 1366 64.83% 21.67% 13.50%+1.06 +6.7 33
1994-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-440.7 1366 1596 13.50% 21.67% 64.83%-1.06 -6.7 11
1994-09-17 Fram Reykjavik D 2-259.1 1396 1379 38.25% 29.39% 32.36%+0.09 -0.2 19
1994-09-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-259.1 1379 1396 32.36% 29.39% 38.25%-0.09 +0.2 20
1994-09-17 IA Akranes W 2-169.2 1501 1716 14.81% 22.93% 62.26%-0.96 +10.2 28
1994-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-269.2 1716 1501 62.26% 22.93% 14.81%+0.96 -10.2 36
1994-09-17 Thor Akureyri W 3-251.8 1497 1375 52.31% 26.88% 20.81%+0.57 +4.1 27
1994-09-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-351.8 1375 1497 20.81% 26.88% 52.31%-0.57 -4.1 14
1994-09-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.3 1379 1603 14.28% 22.44% 63.28%-1.00 -2.9 20
1994-09-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.3 1603 1379 63.28% 22.44% 14.28%+1.00 +2.9 36
1994-09-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-142.0 1706 1396 72.76% 17.33% 9.91%+1.42 +5.9 39
1994-09-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-542.0 1396 1706 9.91% 17.33% 72.76%-1.42 -5.9 19
1994-09-24 Breidablik L 1-345.9 1359 1351 37.01% 29.44% 33.55%+0.06 -11.9 11
1994-09-24 @ Stjarnan W 3-145.9 1351 1359 33.55% 29.44% 37.01%-0.06 +11.8 20
1994-09-24 Keflavik IF L 3-454.6 1371 1512 19.91% 26.45% 53.65%-0.62 -3.8 14
1994-09-24 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-354.6 1512 1371 53.65% 26.45% 19.91%+0.62 +3.8 31
1994-09-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-048.1 1429 1501 26.44% 28.66% 44.91%-0.31 +15.8 28
1994-09-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-248.1 1501 1429 44.91% 28.66% 26.44%+0.31 -15.8 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1994-07-07 11.90% Keflavik IF 1466 2 @ IA Akranes 1729 0
2 1994-07-12 13.01% Fram Reykjavik 1369 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1609 1
3 1994-09-10 13.02% KR Reykjavik 1487 2 @ IA Akranes 1727 1
4 1994-09-17 14.81% @ Keflavik IF 1501 2 IA Akranes 1716 1
5 1994-08-04 15.82% Valur Reykjavik 1415 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1605 0
6 1994-06-01 17.72% @ Valur Reykjavik 1437 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1607 0
7 1994-07-21 18.82% Breidablik 1332 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1478 0
8 1994-08-20 21.11% KR Reykjavik 1478 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1597 1
9 1994-08-20 22.37% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1398 2 Keflavik IF 1510 1
10 1994-09-17 22.40% @ Breidablik 1334 2 Valur Reykjavik 1446 0
11 1994-06-05 22.88% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1382 1 KR Reykjavik 1489 0
12 1994-07-06 24.50% Breidablik 1323 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1406 1
13 1994-06-06 24.75% @ Fram Reykjavik 1359 3 Valur Reykjavik 1448 0
14 1994-06-01 25.28% @ Breidablik 1314 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1398 0
15 1994-09-10 25.99% Breidablik 1320 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1389 1
16 1994-09-24 26.44% @ Valur Reykjavik 1429 2 KR Reykjavik 1501 0
17 1994-07-07 26.77% @ Thor Akureyri 1422 4 KR Reykjavik 1492 2
18 1994-09-03 29.55% Stjarnan 1368 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1407 1
19 1994-07-21 29.88% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1385 6 Thor Akureyri 1428 1
20 1994-07-21 30.98% Fram Reykjavik 1380 2 @ Stjarnan 1407 1
21 1994-06-16 32.91% @ Thor Akureyri 1401 5 Valur Reykjavik 1422 1
22 1994-07-27 33.03% @ Valur Reykjavik 1393 5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1413 1
23 1994-09-24 33.55% Breidablik 1351 3 @ Stjarnan 1359 1
24 1994-06-25 34.92% @ Valur Reykjavik 1400 3 Stjarnan 1406 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-07-21 28.53 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1385 29.88% Thor Akureyri 1 1428 40.93% 29.19%
2 1994-06-06 23.79 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1359 24.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1448 46.99% 28.26%
3 1994-05-23 22.40 KR Reykjavik 5 1455 48.80% @ Breidablik 0 1353 23.35% 27.85%
4 1994-06-16 21.92 @ Thor Akureyri 5 1401 32.91% Valur Reykjavik 1 1422 37.68% 29.41%
5 1994-07-27 21.86 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1393 33.03% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1413 37.55% 29.42%
6 1994-07-07 21.77 Keflavik IF 2 1466 11.90% @ IA Akranes 0 1729 68.21% 19.89%
7 1994-09-17 17.21 @ Breidablik 2 1334 22.40% Valur Reykjavik 0 1446 50.07% 27.52%
8 1994-06-01 16.20 @ Breidablik 2 1314 25.28% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1398 46.32% 28.40%
9 1994-05-26 16.13 @ Keflavik IF 4 1457 52.79% Breidablik 0 1331 20.49% 26.73%
10 1994-09-24 15.81 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1429 26.44% KR Reykjavik 0 1501 44.91% 28.66%
11 1994-06-15 14.42 KR Reykjavik 3 1475 47.50% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1383 24.35% 28.15%
12 1994-07-06 14.26 Breidablik 3 1323 24.50% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1406 47.31% 28.19%
13 1994-09-10 13.82 Breidablik 3 1320 25.99% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1389 45.44% 28.56%
14 1994-07-07 12.16 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1422 26.77% KR Reykjavik 2 1492 44.51% 28.72%
15 1994-09-24 11.85 Breidablik 3 1351 33.55% @ Stjarnan 1 1359 37.01% 29.44%
16 1994-05-26 11.29 KR Reykjavik 2 1478 42.52% @ Stjarnan 0 1422 28.47% 29.01%
17 1994-08-14 10.88 @ Keflavik IF 4 1500 51.38% Stjarnan 1 1385 21.46% 27.16%
18 1994-07-12 10.62 Fram Reykjavik 2 1369 13.01% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1609 65.83% 21.15%
19 1994-09-10 10.62 KR Reykjavik 2 1487 13.02% @ IA Akranes 1 1727 65.83% 21.15%
20 1994-08-04 10.57 Valur Reykjavik 1 1415 15.82% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1605 60.38% 23.80%
21 1994-07-28 10.50 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1469 45.40% Stjarnan 0 1400 26.03% 28.57%
22 1994-09-17 10.19 @ Keflavik IF 2 1501 14.81% IA Akranes 1 1716 62.26% 22.93%
23 1994-06-01 10.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1437 17.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1607 57.09% 25.19%
24 1994-07-21 9.88 Breidablik 1 1332 18.82% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1478 55.33% 25.86%
25 1994-09-10 9.59 Valur Reykjavik 3 1436 43.28% @ Stjarnan 1 1375 27.81% 28.91%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-09-10 69.7 KR Reykjavik 2 1487 13.02% @ IA Akranes 1 1727 65.83% 21.15%
2 1994-09-17 69.2 @ Keflavik IF 2 1501 14.81% IA Akranes 1 1716 62.26% 22.93%
3 1994-07-21 66.5 @ Keflavik IF 3 1494 49.62% Valur Reykjavik 3 1393 22.74% 27.64%
4 1994-09-03 66.1 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1487 50.06% Fram Reykjavik 3 1383 22.41% 27.53%
5 1994-06-24 65.7 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1489 13.28% IA Akranes 0 1732 65.28% 21.44%
6 1994-05-23 65.5 @ IA Akranes 0 1715 51.22% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1602 21.57% 27.20%
7 1994-07-21 65.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1599 22.33% IA Akranes 0 1711 50.17% 27.50%
8 1994-08-04 65.2 @ Keflavik IF 2 1500 38.78% KR Reykjavik 2 1479 31.86% 29.36%
9 1994-08-20 63.4 KR Reykjavik 2 1478 21.11% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1597 51.88% 27.01%
10 1994-06-01 63.0 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1403 42.05% Fram Reykjavik 3 1359 28.88% 29.07%
11 1994-07-07 62.9 @ Stjarnan 1 1400 15.00% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1611 61.91% 23.10%
12 1994-07-12 62.2 Fram Reykjavik 2 1369 13.01% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1609 65.83% 21.15%
13 1994-07-07 61.3 Keflavik IF 2 1466 11.90% @ IA Akranes 0 1729 68.21% 19.89%
14 1994-06-24 61.0 @ Keflavik IF 2 1467 49.38% Fram Reykjavik 2 1368 22.92% 27.71%
15 1994-06-16 59.6 @ Stjarnan 2 1406 37.90% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1392 32.70% 29.41%
16 1994-06-01 59.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1489 38.13% Keflavik IF 1 1473 32.47% 29.39%
17 1994-09-17 59.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1396 38.25% Fram Reykjavik 2 1379 32.36% 29.39%
18 1994-07-07 58.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1369 33.05% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1389 37.53% 29.42%
19 1994-06-01 58.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1437 17.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1607 57.09% 25.19%
20 1994-06-09 58.1 @ Breidablik 2 1328 28.52% Fram Reykjavik 2 1383 42.46% 29.02%
21 1994-08-04 58.0 Valur Reykjavik 1 1415 15.82% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1605 60.38% 23.80%
22 1994-05-23 56.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1438 33.14% Keflavik IF 1 1457 37.44% 29.42%
23 1994-08-20 56.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1398 22.37% Keflavik IF 1 1510 50.11% 27.51%
24 1994-07-07 56.8 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1422 26.77% KR Reykjavik 2 1492 44.51% 28.72%
25 1994-08-14 56.7 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1479 47.18% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1397 24.60% 28.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-05-26 33.7 @ Keflavik IF 4 1457 52.79% Breidablik 0 1331 20.49% 26.73%
2 1994-06-16 35.5 @ IA Akranes 6 1725 80.14% Breidablik 0 1329 6.94% 12.92%
3 1994-05-23 35.9 KR Reykjavik 5 1455 48.80% @ Breidablik 0 1353 23.35% 27.85%
4 1994-06-15 37.4 KR Reykjavik 3 1475 47.50% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1383 24.35% 28.15%
5 1994-08-14 38.5 IA Akranes 3 1718 73.33% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1394 9.67% 17.00%
6 1994-06-05 38.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1597 68.49% Breidablik 0 1331 11.77% 19.74%
7 1994-06-01 39.3 @ IA Akranes 3 1716 72.26% Stjarnan 0 1411 10.12% 17.62%
8 1994-09-03 39.6 IA Akranes 1 1725 80.13% @ Breidablik 0 1321 6.94% 12.93%
9 1994-07-28 39.9 @ IA Akranes 2 1710 73.99% Fram Reykjavik 0 1387 9.39% 16.62%
10 1994-07-11 40.2 IA Akranes 2 1708 72.91% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1388 9.84% 17.25%
11 1994-07-28 40.4 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1469 45.40% Stjarnan 0 1400 26.03% 28.57%
12 1994-09-17 40.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1596 64.83% Stjarnan 1 1366 13.50% 21.67%
13 1994-08-04 41.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1391 43.78% Breidablik 0 1335 27.39% 28.84%
14 1994-07-28 41.9 Keflavik IF 3 1493 54.95% @ Breidablik 1 1342 19.05% 25.99%
15 1994-08-14 42.0 @ Keflavik IF 4 1500 51.38% Stjarnan 1 1385 21.46% 27.16%
16 1994-09-24 42.0 @ IA Akranes 5 1706 72.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1396 9.91% 17.33%
17 1994-05-26 42.2 KR Reykjavik 2 1478 42.52% @ Stjarnan 0 1422 28.47% 29.01%
18 1994-06-06 42.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1359 24.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1448 46.99% 28.26%
19 1994-06-01 43.1 @ Breidablik 2 1314 25.28% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1398 46.32% 28.40%
20 1994-06-24 43.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1608 62.43% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1392 14.72% 22.85%
21 1994-08-04 43.2 IA Akranes 4 1714 73.37% @ Stjarnan 1 1389 9.65% 16.98%
22 1994-08-14 43.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1426 41.82% Fram Reykjavik 0 1383 29.09% 29.10%
23 1994-05-26 44.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1603 61.16% Thor Akureyri 0 1406 15.40% 23.45%
24 1994-09-03 44.0 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1430 40.76% Thor Akureyri 0 1395 30.03% 29.21%
25 1994-07-27 44.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1393 33.03% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1413 37.55% 29.42%