1994 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

39 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

6.19 points above expected

28 points · 21.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

7.37 points below expected

11 points · 18.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 18 12 3 3 39 35 11 +24 38.6 +0.37
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 11 3 4 36 26 16 +10 31.5 +4.54
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 7 3 31 36 24 +12 25.6 +5.41
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 25 25 0 21.8 +6.19
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 27 28 20 +8 27.5 -0.51
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 8 6 20 27 30 -3 20.8 -0.82
7 Breidablik 18 6 2 10 20 23 35 -12 16.6 +3.41
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 4 7 7 19 22 29 -7 19.6 -0.60
9 Thor Akureyri 18 3 5 10 14 27 38 -11 20.4 -6.44
10 Stjarnan 18 2 5 11 11 18 39 -21 18.4 -7.37

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1675 39 38.63 +0.37 56.0% 17 30 35 39 42 46 54
FH Hafnarfjordur 1582 36 31.46 +4.54 84.0% 8 23 28 32 35 40 50
Keflavik IF 1531 31 25.59 +5.41 87.7% 8 18 22 25 29 34 47
KR Reykjavik 1511 27 27.51 -0.51 50.0% 8 19 24 27 31 36 46
Valur Reykjavik 1466 28 21.81 +6.19 91.0% 5 14 18 22 25 30 41
Fram Reykjavik 1413 20 20.82 -0.82 48.3% 6 13 17 21 24 29 43
Breidablik 1393 20 16.59 +3.41 80.3% 3 9 13 16 20 24 34
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1386 19 19.60 -0.60 49.9% 3 12 16 20 23 28 40
Thor Akureyri 1350 14 20.44 -6.44 11.2% 6 13 17 20 24 29 39
Stjarnan 1312 11 18.37 -7.37 7.3% 3 11 15 18 22 27 42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI STJ TA VR
Breidablik
0-0-2
1.36
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-2
0.81
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
1.81
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
1.99
2-0-0
1.93
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.82
0-2-0
1.90
2-0-0
3.87
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.17
1-1-0
4.15
2-0-0
3.74
0-0-2
3.63
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.32
1-0-1
1.58
0-0-2
1.26
0-2-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.16
1-1-0
2.68
0-2-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.33
IA Akranes
2-0-0
4.96
0-2-0
3.40
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
4.50
0-1-1
3.90
0-0-2
4.09
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.34
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
1.54
0-2-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.11
1-1-0
1.73
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.24
0-1-1
2.60
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.22
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
1.53
0-1-1
3.61
0-2-0
2.87
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.61
0-1-1
3.52
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.44
0-0-2
2.10
1-1-0
3.09
2-0-0
1.39
0-1-1
3.39
0-2-0
2.38
1-1-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.36
0-2-0
2.98
Stjarnan
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.55
0-0-2
1.09
1-1-0
2.34
0-0-2
1.91
0-1-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.27
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
3.30
0-0-2
1.64
0-2-0
2.51
0-0-2
1.10
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
1.75
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.34
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
3.36
2-0-0
1.72
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
1.22
1-1-0
2.65
1-1-0
1.81
0-2-0
2.30
2-0-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.90

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.89%7.22%4.44%2.22%0.56%1.11%24.44%
17.22%8.89%10.00%3.33%1.67%2.22%33.33%
24.44%10.00%6.67%1.67%0.56%23.33%
32.22%3.33%1.67%3.33%1.11%11.67%
40.56%1.67%0.56%1.11%3.89%
5+1.11%2.22%3.33%
Total24.44%33.33%23.33%11.67%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.48
Mean allowed1.48
StdDev scored1.31
StdDev allowed1.31
Mean total goals/game2.97
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.008
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%11.11%33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
211.11%5.56%16.67%
316.67%5.56%22.22%
4
5+
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.94
StdDev scored1.18
StdDev allowed1.76
Mean total goals/game3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.332
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%22.22%
122.22%5.56%11.11%38.89%
222.22%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total33.33%50.00%11.11%5.56%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed0.89
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed0.83
Mean total goals/game2.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.504
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%16.67%22.22%
216.67%22.22%38.89%
35.56%11.11%16.67%
4
5+
Total11.11%27.78%44.44%16.67%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.04
StdDev allowed0.91
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.124
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%22.22%
111.11%11.11%22.22%
211.11%16.67%27.78%
311.11%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.94
Mean allowed0.61
StdDev scored1.73
StdDev allowed0.78
Mean total goals/game2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.104
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%44.44%
25.56%16.67%22.22%
3
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%11.11%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored1.40
StdDev allowed1.46
Mean total goals/game2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.016
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%33.33%
111.11%11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.42
StdDev allowed1.13
Mean total goals/game2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.069
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%
116.67%16.67%33.33%
25.56%16.67%11.11%33.33%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
5+
Total16.67%44.44%27.78%11.11%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.19
StdDev allowed0.91
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.164
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
111.11%5.56%11.11%16.67%44.44%
211.11%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3
4
5+
Total11.11%22.22%22.22%27.78%16.67%100%

Stjarnan — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed2.17
StdDev scored0.77
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.178
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%38.89%
25.56%5.56%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Thor Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed2.11
StdDev scored1.50
StdDev allowed1.49
Mean total goals/game3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.184
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored1.33
StdDev allowed1.42
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.009
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 28 21.8 +6.19
2 Keflavik IF 31 25.6 +5.41
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 31.5 +4.54
4 Breidablik 20 16.6 +3.41
5 IA Akranes 39 38.6 +0.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 11 18.4 -7.37
2 Thor Akureyri 14 20.4 -6.44
3 Fram Reykjavik 20 20.8 -0.82
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 19.6 -0.60
5 KR Reykjavik 27 27.5 -0.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 14 1 in 75
2 Breidablik 3 Sep 10 – Sep 24 1 in 62
3 Keflavik IF 3 Sep 11 – Sep 24 1 in 28
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 12 – Jul 21 1 in 18
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 5 – Jun 24 1 in 18

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 5 Jul 21 – Aug 21 1 in 48
2 IA Akranes 2 Sep 10 – Sep 17 1 in 41
3 Thor Akureyri 4 Sep 3 – Sep 24 1 in 36
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 28 – Sep 3 1 in 26
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 6 – Jun 16 1 in 23

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jul 11 – Aug 14 1 in 19
2 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 24 – Aug 14 1 in 13
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 28 – Sep 17 1 in 13
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 24 – Jul 21 1 in 7
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 5 – Jun 16 1 in 5

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 8 May 23 – Jul 7 1 in 10
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 24 – Jul 21 1 in 9
3 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 1 – Jun 24 1 in 7
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jul 7 – Jul 21 1 in 7
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 24 – Jul 7 1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes79.67%14.75%3.91%1.13%0.33%0.15%0.03%0.02%0.01%
FH Hafnarfjordur13.60%44.38%21.42%10.42%5.25%2.49%1.46%0.60%0.34%0.04%
Keflavik IF1.93%12.51%20.66%21.51%15.71%10.78%7.88%5.01%2.70%1.31%
Valur Reykjavik0.41%3.19%8.07%12.60%16.54%16.29%14.92%12.13%9.62%6.23%
KR Reykjavik3.75%18.65%27.82%19.76%12.52%7.54%4.75%3.08%1.56%0.57%
Fram Reykjavik0.29%2.10%5.72%10.59%14.15%15.54%15.78%14.44%12.37%9.02%
Breidablik0.02%0.29%1.22%2.69%4.77%7.66%10.61%15.43%22.88%34.43%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.08%1.30%3.72%7.35%10.62%14.38%15.53%16.79%16.75%13.48%
Thor Akureyri0.18%2.05%5.00%8.74%12.54%14.36%16.04%16.07%13.84%11.18%
Stjarnan0.07%0.78%2.46%5.21%7.57%10.81%13.00%16.43%19.93%23.74%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% <0.1%
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.6% 0.4%
KR Reykjavik 97.9% 2.1%
Keflavik IF 96.0% 4.0%
Valur Reykjavik 84.2% 15.8%
Fram Reykjavik 78.6% 21.4%
Thor Akureyri 75.0% 25.0%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 69.8% 30.2%
Stjarnan 56.3% 43.7%
Breidablik 42.7% 57.3%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1994-05-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-5 1398 1473 22.2% 36.7% 41.0% -40.2 0
1994-05-23 @ Breidablik W 5-0 1473 1398 41.0% 36.7% 22.2% +40.2 3
1994-05-23 Stjarnan D 0-0 1408 1423 29.1% 38.6% 32.2% +0.2 1
1994-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1423 1408 32.2% 38.6% 29.1% -0.2 1
1994-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1653 1556 45.2% 34.9% 19.8% -1.9 1
1994-05-23 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1556 1653 19.8% 34.9% 45.2% +1.9 1
1994-05-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1422 1400 34.3% 38.5% 27.2% -0.5 1
1994-05-23 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1400 1422 27.2% 38.5% 34.3% +0.5 1
1994-05-23 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1455 1432 34.4% 38.4% 27.2% -0.4 1
1994-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1432 1455 27.2% 38.4% 34.4% +0.5 1
1994-05-26 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1558 1421 50.9% 31.7% 17.3% +7.1 4
1994-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1421 1558 17.3% 31.7% 50.9% -7.1 1
1994-05-26 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1401 1454 24.4% 37.8% 37.8% +0.8 2
1994-05-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1454 1401 37.8% 37.8% 24.4% -0.8 2
1994-05-26 Breidablik W 4-0 1433 1358 42.1% 36.3% 21.6% +31.8 4
1994-05-26 @ Keflavik IF L 0-4 1358 1433 21.6% 36.3% 42.1% -31.8 0
1994-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1423 1513 20.9% 35.9% 43.2% -16.3 1
1994-05-26 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1513 1423 43.2% 35.9% 20.9% +16.3 6
1994-05-27 IA Akranes L 1-2 1409 1651 13.2% 21.9% 65.0% -4.4 1
1994-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1651 1409 65.0% 21.9% 13.2% +4.4 4
1994-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1326 1402 22.2% 36.7% 41.1% +26.0 3
1994-06-01 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1402 1326 41.1% 36.7% 22.2% -26.0 2
1994-06-01 Stjarnan W 3-0 1655 1407 66.9% 20.4% 12.7% +11.9 7
1994-06-01 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1407 1655 12.7% 20.4% 66.9% -11.9 1
1994-06-01 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1530 1465 40.7% 36.9% 22.5% -1.2 7
1994-06-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1465 1530 22.5% 36.9% 40.7% +1.2 5
1994-06-01 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1414 1404 32.6% 38.6% 28.7% -0.2 2
1994-06-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 3-3 1404 1414 28.7% 38.6% 32.6% +0.1 2
1994-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1453 1565 19.3% 34.4% 46.2% +14.9 5
1994-06-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1565 1453 46.2% 34.4% 19.3% -14.9 4
1994-06-05 Breidablik W 1-0 1550 1352 59.8% 25.7% 14.5% +5.5 7
1994-06-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1352 1550 14.5% 25.7% 59.8% -5.5 3
1994-06-05 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1667 1414 67.5% 19.9% 12.6% +4.0 10
1994-06-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1414 1667 12.6% 19.9% 67.5% -4.0 2
1994-06-05 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1376 1529 16.8% 30.9% 52.2% +16.1 5
1994-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1529 1376 52.2% 30.9% 16.8% -16.1 7
1994-06-05 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1395 1466 22.7% 37.0% 40.4% +1.1 2
1994-06-05 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1466 1395 40.4% 37.0% 22.7% -1.1 6
1994-06-06 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1404 1468 23.4% 37.3% 39.3% +36.7 5
1994-06-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1468 1404 39.3% 37.3% 23.4% -36.7 5
1994-06-09 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1346 1441 20.6% 35.6% 43.8% +1.1 4
1994-06-09 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1441 1346 43.8% 35.6% 20.6% -1.1 6
1994-06-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1465 1392 41.8% 36.5% 21.8% -1.4 7
1994-06-09 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1392 1465 21.8% 36.5% 41.8% +1.4 6
1994-06-09 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1513 1555 25.6% 38.1% 36.3% -10.2 7
1994-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1555 1513 36.3% 38.1% 25.6% +10.2 10
1994-06-10 Stjarnan D 0-0 1410 1396 33.3% 38.6% 28.2% -0.3 3
1994-06-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1396 1410 28.2% 38.6% 33.3% +0.3 3
1994-06-10 IA Akranes L 0-1 1431 1671 13.3% 22.1% 64.6% -4.7 5
1994-06-10 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1671 1431 64.6% 22.1% 13.3% +4.7 13
1994-06-15 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1440 1502 23.5% 37.4% 39.1% -26.1 6
1994-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1502 1440 39.1% 37.4% 23.5% +26.1 10
1994-06-16 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1565 1463 46.0% 34.5% 19.4% +7.6 13
1994-06-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1463 1565 19.4% 34.5% 46.0% -7.6 7
1994-06-16 Breidablik W 6-0 1676 1347 77.2% 12.7% 10.0% +15.4 16
1994-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-6 1347 1676 10.0% 12.7% 77.2% -15.4 4
1994-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1396 1393 31.6% 38.7% 29.7% -0.1 4
1994-06-16 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1393 1396 29.7% 38.7% 31.6% +0.1 7
1994-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 5-1 1410 1427 28.8% 38.6% 32.6% +35.4 6
1994-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-5 1427 1410 32.6% 38.6% 28.8% -35.4 5
1994-06-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1332 1445 19.2% 34.3% 46.5% +1.8 5
1994-06-24 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1445 1332 46.5% 34.3% 19.2% -1.8 7
1994-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1393 1573 15.6% 28.3% 56.1% -6.1 7
1994-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1573 1393 56.1% 28.3% 15.6% +6.1 16
1994-06-24 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1456 1414 37.2% 37.9% 24.9% -0.6 8
1994-06-24 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1414 1456 24.9% 37.9% 37.2% +0.6 7
1994-06-24 IA Akranes D 0-0 1528 1691 16.4% 30.0% 53.6% +2.8 11
1994-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1691 1528 53.6% 30.0% 16.4% -2.8 17
1994-06-25 Stjarnan W 3-2 1391 1396 30.5% 38.7% 30.8% +10.3 8
1994-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1396 1391 30.8% 38.7% 30.5% -10.3 4
1994-07-06 Breidablik L 1-3 1402 1334 41.0% 36.7% 22.2% -22.5 8
1994-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1334 1402 22.2% 36.7% 41.0% +22.5 8
1994-07-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1414 1387 35.2% 38.3% 26.5% -0.4 8
1994-07-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1387 1414 26.5% 38.3% 35.2% +0.4 8
1994-07-07 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1688 1455 64.8% 22.0% 13.2% -34.4 17
1994-07-07 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1455 1688 13.2% 22.0% 64.8% +34.4 11
1994-07-07 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1386 1579 15.0% 27.0% 58.0% +2.9 5
1994-07-07 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1579 1386 58.0% 27.0% 15.0% -2.9 17
1994-07-07 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1443 1531 21.1% 36.0% 42.8% +20.7 10
1994-07-07 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-4 1531 1443 42.8% 36.0% 21.1% -20.7 11
1994-07-11 Stjarnan L 1-2 1356 1389 26.8% 38.4% 34.8% -9.9 8
1994-07-11 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1389 1356 34.8% 38.4% 26.8% +9.9 8
1994-07-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1388 1654 12.3% 19.3% 68.3% -7.8 8
1994-07-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1654 1388 68.3% 19.3% 12.3% +7.8 20
1994-07-11 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1489 1464 34.9% 38.4% 26.8% +9.9 14
1994-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1464 1489 26.8% 38.4% 34.9% -9.9 10
1994-07-11 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1511 1379 50.2% 32.2% 17.6% -2.4 12
1994-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1379 1511 17.6% 32.2% 50.2% +2.4 9
1994-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1576 1414 54.7% 29.3% 16.0% -15.6 17
1994-07-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1414 1576 16.0% 29.3% 54.7% +15.6 11
1994-07-21 IA Akranes D 0-0 1561 1662 20.1% 35.2% 44.7% +1.8 18
1994-07-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1662 1561 44.7% 35.2% 20.1% -1.8 21
1994-07-21 Thor Akureyri W 6-1 1380 1454 22.3% 36.8% 40.9% +50.1 11
1994-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-6 1454 1380 40.9% 36.8% 22.3% -50.1 10
1994-07-21 Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1499 1382 48.2% 33.4% 18.4% -1.2 15
1994-07-21 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1382 1499 18.4% 33.4% 48.2% +1.2 10
1994-07-21 Breidablik L 0-1 1508 1346 54.6% 29.3% 16.0% -16.5 12
1994-07-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1346 1508 16.0% 29.3% 54.6% +16.5 11
1994-07-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1399 1430 27.0% 38.4% 34.6% -10.0 8
1994-07-21 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1430 1399 34.6% 38.4% 27.0% +9.9 14
1994-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1383 1430 25.1% 38.0% 36.9% +38.3 13
1994-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1430 1383 36.9% 38.0% 25.1% -38.3 11
1994-07-28 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1363 1498 17.8% 32.5% 49.7% -11.9 11
1994-07-28 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1498 1363 49.7% 32.5% 17.8% +11.9 18
1994-07-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1660 1440 63.0% 23.3% 13.7% +9.3 24
1994-07-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1440 1660 13.7% 23.3% 63.0% -9.3 14
1994-07-28 Stjarnan W 2-0 1492 1389 46.1% 34.5% 19.4% +15.1 15
1994-07-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1389 1492 19.4% 34.5% 46.1% -15.1 8
1994-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1404 1562 16.6% 30.4% 53.0% -10.9 10
1994-07-28 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1562 1404 53.0% 30.4% 16.6% +10.9 21
1994-08-04 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1573 1421 53.2% 30.3% 16.5% -16.2 21
1994-08-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1421 1573 16.5% 30.3% 53.2% +16.3 16
1994-08-04 Breidablik W 1-0 1392 1351 37.1% 37.9% 25.0% +10.0 14
1994-08-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1351 1392 25.0% 37.9% 37.1% -10.0 11
1994-08-04 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1510 1507 31.7% 38.7% 29.7% -0.1 19
1994-08-04 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1507 1510 29.7% 38.7% 31.7% +0.1 16
1994-08-04 IA Akranes L 1-4 1374 1669 11.4% 16.4% 72.2% -8.3 8
1994-08-04 @ Stjarnan W 4-1 1669 1374 72.2% 16.4% 11.4% +8.3 27
1994-08-07 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1430 1393 36.6% 38.0% 25.4% -0.7 15
1994-08-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1393 1430 25.4% 38.0% 36.6% +0.7 11
1994-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 3-4 1341 1557 14.1% 24.6% 61.3% -4.5 11
1994-08-14 @ Breidablik W 4-3 1557 1341 61.3% 24.6% 14.1% +4.5 24
1994-08-14 Stjarnan W 4-1 1510 1365 52.1% 31.0% 16.9% +15.8 22
1994-08-14 @ Keflavik IF L 1-4 1365 1510 16.9% 31.0% 52.1% -15.8 8
1994-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1507 1402 46.5% 34.3% 19.2% -1.8 17
1994-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1402 1507 19.2% 34.3% 46.5% +1.8 15
1994-08-14 IA Akranes L 0-3 1394 1678 11.8% 17.6% 70.7% -10.4 11
1994-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1678 1394 70.7% 17.6% 11.8% +10.4 30
1994-08-14 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1437 1430 32.3% 38.6% 29.0% +11.1 19
1994-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1430 1437 29.0% 38.6% 32.3% -11.1 15
1994-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1562 1505 39.4% 37.3% 23.3% -12.6 24
1994-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1505 1562 23.3% 37.3% 39.4% +12.6 20
1994-08-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1688 1448 65.7% 21.3% 13.0% +4.3 33
1994-08-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1448 1688 13.0% 21.3% 65.7% -4.3 19
1994-08-20 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1403 1526 18.6% 33.6% 47.8% +14.3 18
1994-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1526 1403 47.8% 33.6% 18.6% -14.3 22
1994-08-21 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1350 1383 26.7% 38.4% 35.0% -9.3 8
1994-08-21 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1383 1350 35.0% 38.4% 26.7% +9.3 14
1994-08-22 Breidablik W 2-1 1419 1336 43.1% 35.9% 21.0% +8.2 18
1994-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1336 1419 21.0% 35.9% 43.1% -8.2 11
1994-09-03 IA Akranes L 0-1 1328 1692 9.1% 10.5% 80.4% -2.6 11
1994-09-03 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1692 1328 80.4% 10.5% 9.1% +2.6 36
1994-09-03 Stjarnan L 1-2 1418 1340 42.4% 36.2% 21.4% -13.3 18
1994-09-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1340 1418 21.4% 36.2% 42.4% +13.3 11
1994-09-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1511 1549 26.2% 38.2% 35.5% -9.7 22
1994-09-03 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1549 1511 35.5% 38.2% 26.2% +9.7 27
1994-09-03 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1518 1427 44.4% 35.3% 20.3% -1.0 21
1994-09-03 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 1427 1518 20.3% 35.3% 44.4% +1.0 19
1994-09-03 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1444 1393 38.7% 37.5% 23.8% +9.6 22
1994-09-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1393 1444 23.8% 37.5% 38.7% -9.6 14
1994-09-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1559 1404 53.5% 30.1% 16.4% +6.2 30
1994-09-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1404 1559 16.4% 30.1% 53.5% -6.2 18
1994-09-10 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1695 1517 57.0% 27.7% 15.3% -16.0 36
1994-09-10 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1517 1695 15.3% 27.7% 57.0% +16.0 24
1994-09-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1353 1454 20.1% 35.2% 44.6% -13.6 11
1994-09-10 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1454 1353 44.6% 35.2% 20.1% +13.6 25
1994-09-10 Breidablik L 1-3 1383 1326 39.5% 37.3% 23.2% -21.9 14
1994-09-10 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1326 1383 23.2% 37.3% 39.5% +22.0 14
1994-09-11 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1428 1502 22.4% 36.8% 40.8% -8.6 19
1994-09-11 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1502 1428 40.8% 36.8% 22.4% +8.6 25
1994-09-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1348 1467 18.8% 33.8% 47.4% +28.5 17
1994-09-17 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1467 1348 47.4% 33.8% 18.8% -28.5 25
1994-09-17 Stjarnan W 4-1 1565 1340 63.7% 22.8% 13.5% +11.2 33
1994-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1340 1565 13.5% 22.8% 63.7% -11.2 11
1994-09-17 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1398 1419 28.3% 38.6% 33.1% +0.2 19
1994-09-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1419 1398 33.1% 38.6% 28.3% -0.2 20
1994-09-17 IA Akranes W 2-1 1510 1679 16.1% 29.4% 54.5% +15.5 28
1994-09-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1679 1510 54.5% 29.4% 16.1% -15.5 36
1994-09-17 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1533 1361 56.0% 28.4% 15.6% +5.5 27
1994-09-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1361 1533 15.6% 28.4% 56.0% -5.5 14
1994-09-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1419 1576 16.6% 30.5% 52.8% -6.3 20
1994-09-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1576 1419 52.8% 30.5% 16.6% +6.3 36
1994-09-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1663 1398 69.2% 18.7% 12.1% +12.0 39
1994-09-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-5 1398 1663 12.1% 18.7% 69.2% -12.0 19
1994-09-24 Breidablik L 1-3 1329 1376 25.1% 38.0% 37.0% -16.4 11
1994-09-24 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1376 1329 37.0% 38.0% 25.1% +16.3 20
1994-09-24 Keflavik IF L 3-4 1356 1526 16.0% 29.3% 54.7% -5.5 14
1994-09-24 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-3 1526 1356 54.7% 29.3% 16.0% +5.5 31
1994-09-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1439 1538 20.2% 35.3% 44.5% +27.3 28
1994-09-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1538 1439 44.5% 35.3% 20.2% -27.4 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1994-07-07 13.22% Keflavik IF 1455 2 @ IA Akranes 1688 0
2 1994-09-10 15.32% KR Reykjavik 1517 2 @ IA Akranes 1695 1
3 1994-07-12 16.01% Fram Reykjavik 1414 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1576 1
4 1994-07-21 16.03% Breidablik 1346 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1508 0
5 1994-09-17 16.07% @ Keflavik IF 1510 2 IA Akranes 1679 1
6 1994-08-04 16.49% Valur Reykjavik 1421 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1573 0
7 1994-06-05 16.84% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1376 1 KR Reykjavik 1529 0
8 1994-08-20 18.60% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1403 2 Keflavik IF 1526 1
9 1994-09-17 18.76% @ Breidablik 1348 2 Valur Reykjavik 1467 0
10 1994-06-01 19.32% @ Valur Reykjavik 1453 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1565 0
11 1994-09-24 20.22% @ Valur Reykjavik 1439 2 KR Reykjavik 1538 0
12 1994-07-07 21.13% @ Thor Akureyri 1443 4 KR Reykjavik 1531 2
13 1994-09-03 21.36% Stjarnan 1340 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1418 1
14 1994-06-01 22.19% @ Breidablik 1326 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1402 0
15 1994-07-06 22.22% Breidablik 1334 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1402 1
16 1994-07-21 22.32% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1380 6 Thor Akureyri 1454 1
17 1994-09-10 23.21% Breidablik 1326 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1383 1
18 1994-08-20 23.30% KR Reykjavik 1505 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1562 1
19 1994-06-06 23.36% @ Fram Reykjavik 1404 3 Valur Reykjavik 1468 0
20 1994-07-27 25.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 1383 5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1430 1
21 1994-06-16 28.83% @ Thor Akureyri 1410 5 Valur Reykjavik 1427 1
22 1994-06-25 30.52% @ Valur Reykjavik 1391 3 Stjarnan 1396 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-07-21 50.14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1380 22.32% Thor Akureyri 1 1454 40.87%
2 1994-05-23 40.18 KR Reykjavik 5 1473 41.04% @ Breidablik 0 1398 22.22%
3 1994-07-27 38.33 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1383 25.12% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1430 36.91%
4 1994-06-06 36.67 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1404 23.36% Valur Reykjavik 0 1468 39.31%
5 1994-06-16 35.40 @ Thor Akureyri 5 1410 28.83% Valur Reykjavik 1 1427 32.55%
6 1994-07-07 34.36 Keflavik IF 2 1455 13.22% @ IA Akranes 0 1688 64.82%
7 1994-05-26 31.76 @ Keflavik IF 4 1433 42.12% Breidablik 0 1358 21.55%
8 1994-09-17 28.51 @ Breidablik 2 1348 18.76% Valur Reykjavik 0 1467 47.45%
9 1994-09-24 27.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1439 20.22% KR Reykjavik 0 1538 44.47%
10 1994-06-15 26.10 KR Reykjavik 3 1502 39.13% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1440 23.49%
11 1994-06-01 25.98 @ Breidablik 2 1326 22.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1402 41.09%
12 1994-07-06 22.48 Breidablik 3 1334 22.22% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1402 41.04%
13 1994-09-10 21.95 Breidablik 3 1326 23.21% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1383 39.53%
14 1994-07-07 20.67 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1443 21.13% KR Reykjavik 2 1531 42.83%
15 1994-07-21 16.51 Breidablik 1 1346 16.03% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1508 54.62%
16 1994-09-24 16.35 Breidablik 3 1376 36.96% @ Stjarnan 1 1329 25.07%
17 1994-05-26 16.30 KR Reykjavik 2 1513 43.20% @ Stjarnan 0 1423 20.92%
18 1994-08-04 16.26 Valur Reykjavik 1 1421 16.49% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1573 53.23%
19 1994-06-05 16.07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1376 16.84% KR Reykjavik 0 1529 52.23%
20 1994-09-10 15.97 KR Reykjavik 2 1517 15.32% @ IA Akranes 1 1695 56.96%
21 1994-08-14 15.78 @ Keflavik IF 4 1510 52.13% Stjarnan 1 1365 16.87%
22 1994-07-12 15.58 Fram Reykjavik 2 1414 16.01% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1576 54.67%
23 1994-09-17 15.55 @ Keflavik IF 2 1510 16.07% IA Akranes 1 1679 54.49%
24 1994-06-16 15.43 @ IA Akranes 6 1676 77.24% Breidablik 0 1347 10.02%
25 1994-07-28 15.14 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1492 46.11% Stjarnan 0 1389 19.39%