1994 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

39 points · 12th Title

Last Title: 1993.0

Relegated

Stjarnan

11 pts

Thor Akureyri · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

5.88 points above expected

28 points · 22.12 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

9.33 points below expected

11 points · 20.33 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IA Akranes Champion	18	12	3	3	39	35	11	+24	41.02	-2.02
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	18	11	3	4	36	26	16	+10	34.45	+1.55
3	Keflavik IF	18	8	7	3	31	36	24	+12	26.74	+4.26
4	Valur Reykjavik	18	8	4	6	28	25	25	0	22.12	+5.88
5	KR Reykjavik	18	7	6	5	27	28	20	+8	26.37	+0.63
6	Fram Reykjavik	18	4	8	6	20	27	30	-3	18.58	+1.42
7	Breidablik	18	6	2	10	20	23	35	-12	16.14	+3.86
8	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	18	4	7	7	19	22	29	-7	20.38	-1.38
9	Thor Akureyri Relegated	18	3	5	10	14	27	38	-11	20.76	-6.76
10	Stjarnan Relegated	18	2	5	11	11	18	39	-21	20.33	-9.33

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
IA Akranes	1713	39	41.02	-2.02	36.1%	20	33	38	41	44	48	54
FH Hafnarfjordur	1608	36	34.45	+1.55	64.7%	14	26	31	34	38	43	51
Keflavik IF	1517	31	26.74	+4.26	82.0%	8	18	23	27	30	35	47
KR Reykjavik	1487	27	26.37	+0.63	59.1%	7	18	23	26	30	35	45
Valur Reykjavik	1446	28	22.12	+5.88	89.0%	3	14	19	22	26	31	43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1391	19	20.38	-1.38	43.7%	3	12	17	20	24	29	40
Fram Reykjavik	1378	20	18.58	+1.42	65.6%	3	10	15	19	22	27	41
Thor Akureyri	1369	14	20.76	-6.76	11.0%	4	13	17	21	24	29	40
Breidablik	1364	20	16.14	+3.86	81.9%	2	9	13	16	19	24	34
Stjarnan	1349	11	20.33	-9.33	3.8%	4	12	17	20	24	29	41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRE	FH	FR	IA	IV	KR	KI	STJ	TA	VR
Breidablik	—	0-0-2 1.11	0-1-1 2.27	0-0-2 0.67	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 1.80	0-0-2 1.71	1-0-1 2.40	1-1-0 2.04	2-0-0 1.96
FH Hafnarfjordur	2-0-0 4.49	—	1-0-1 4.31	0-2-0 1.87	2-0-0 4.16	1-0-1 3.63	2-0-0 3.56	1-1-0 4.25	2-0-0 4.12	0-0-2 4.02
Fram Reykjavik	1-1-0 3.15	1-0-1 1.25	—	0-0-2 0.86	0-2-0 2.55	0-1-1 1.96	0-1-1 1.91	1-1-0 2.33	0-2-0 2.48	1-0-1 2.19
IA Akranes	2-0-0 5.07	0-2-0 3.59	2-0-0 4.82	—	2-0-0 4.72	0-1-1 4.36	0-0-2 4.34	2-0-0 4.71	2-0-0 4.74	2-0-0 4.63
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1-0-1 3.28	0-0-2 1.37	0-2-0 2.86	0-0-2 0.94	—	1-1-0 1.98	1-1-0 1.97	0-1-1 2.80	1-1-0 2.48	0-1-1 2.62
KR Reykjavik	1-0-1 3.66	1-0-1 1.83	1-1-0 3.48	1-1-0 1.21	0-1-1 3.46	—	0-2-0 2.68	2-0-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.46	0-1-1 3.35
Keflavik IF	2-0-0 3.77	0-0-2 1.90	1-1-0 3.54	2-0-0 1.23	0-1-1 3.48	0-2-0 2.73	—	1-1-0 3.43	2-0-0 3.47	0-2-0 3.19
Stjarnan	1-0-1 3.01	0-1-1 1.30	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-2 0.94	1-1-0 2.61	0-0-2 2.21	0-1-1 2.01	—	0-1-1 2.67	0-0-2 2.49
Thor Akureyri	0-1-1 3.39	0-0-2 1.40	0-2-0 2.94	0-0-2 0.92	0-1-1 2.93	1-0-1 1.98	0-0-2 1.98	1-1-0 2.74	—	1-0-1 2.48
Valur Reykjavik	0-0-2 3.48	2-0-0 1.49	1-0-1 3.24	0-0-2 1.01	1-1-0 2.79	1-1-0 2.08	0-2-0 2.24	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 2.94	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.51	+12.0
Allowed	0.92	-9.5
Differential	0.90	+6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.89%	7.22%	4.44%	2.22%	0.56%	1.11%	24.44%
1	7.22%	8.89%	10.00%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	33.33%
2	4.44%	10.00%	6.67%	1.67%	0.56%	—	23.33%
3	2.22%	3.33%	1.67%	3.33%	1.11%	—	11.67%
4	0.56%	1.67%	0.56%	1.11%	—	—	3.89%
5+	1.11%	2.22%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	24.44%	33.33%	23.33%	11.67%	3.89%	3.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.48	1.48	+0.00
SD	1.31	1.31	1.86
CV	0.88	0.88	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.94	-0.67
SD	1.18	1.76	2.43
CV	0.92	0.91	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	50.00%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	0.89	+0.56
SD	1.25	0.83	1.10
CV	0.86	0.94	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	44.44%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.67	-0.17
SD	1.04	0.91	1.29
CV	0.70	0.54	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	55.56%	27.78%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	0.61	+1.33
SD	1.73	0.78	1.97
CV	0.89	1.27	—
Max	6	2	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	38.89%	—	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.61	-0.39
SD	1.40	1.46	2.00
CV	1.14	0.91	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.11	+0.44
SD	1.42	1.13	1.76
CV	0.92	1.02	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.33	+0.67
SD	1.19	0.91	1.37
CV	0.59	0.68	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	44.44%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.17	-1.17
SD	0.77	1.29	1.38
CV	0.77	0.60	—
Max	2	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.11	-0.61
SD	1.50	1.49	1.91
CV	1.00	0.71	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.33	1.42	1.94
CV	0.96	1.02	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik	28	22.12	+5.88
2	Keflavik IF	31	26.74	+4.26
3	Breidablik	20	16.14	+3.86
4	FH Hafnarfjordur	36	34.45	+1.55
5	Fram Reykjavik	20	18.58	+1.42

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Stjarnan	11	20.33	-9.33
2	Thor Akureyri	14	20.76	-6.76
3	IA Akranes	39	41.02	-2.02
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	19	20.38	-1.38
5	KR Reykjavik	27	26.37	+0.63

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Breidablik	3	Sep 10 – Sep 24	1 in 52
2	Valur Reykjavik	3	Jul 27 – Aug 14	1 in 46
3	Keflavik IF	3	Sep 11 – Sep 24	1 in 25
4	Fram Reykjavik	2	Jul 12 – Jul 21	1 in 25
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	Jun 5 – Jun 24	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	IA Akranes	2	Sep 10 – Sep 17	1 in 52
2	Stjarnan	5	Jul 21 – Aug 21	1 in 51
3	Thor Akureyri	4	Sep 3 – Sep 24	1 in 34
4	Breidablik	5	Jul 28 – Sep 3	1 in 18
5	Valur Reykjavik	3	Jun 6 – Jun 16	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	7	Jul 28 – Sep 17	1 in 29
2	Valur Reykjavik	5	Jul 11 – Aug 14	1 in 22
3	Keflavik IF	7	Jun 24 – Aug 14	1 in 17
4	Fram Reykjavik	4	Jun 24 – Jul 21	1 in 15
5	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	Jun 5 – Jun 16	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Stjarnan	8	May 23 – Jul 7	1 in 17
2	Keflavik IF	5	Jun 1 – Jun 24	1 in 12
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	Jul 7 – Jul 21	1 in 10
4	IA Akranes	2	Jun 24 – Jul 7	1 in 9
5	KR Reykjavik	4	Jun 24 – Jul 21	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
IA Akranes	80.96%	16.03%	2.45%	0.38%	0.12%	0.05%	0.01%	—	—	—
FH Hafnarfjordur	15.95%	55.69%	17.51%	6.44%	2.49%	1.05%	0.52%	0.22%	0.12%	0.01%
Keflavik IF	1.40%	11.75%	26.67%	22.33%	14.08%	10.43%	6.11%	4.11%	2.25%	0.87%
Valur Reykjavik	0.23%	2.30%	9.10%	13.84%	16.54%	16.11%	14.02%	12.36%	9.51%	5.99%
KR Reykjavik	1.20%	9.67%	24.98%	22.64%	15.77%	10.33%	7.16%	4.36%	2.72%	1.17%
Fram Reykjavik	0.03%	0.66%	2.83%	5.43%	9.36%	12.29%	14.50%	18.19%	18.84%	17.87%
Breidablik	—	0.10%	0.99%	2.23%	4.53%	6.96%	10.01%	14.18%	22.98%	38.02%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0.06%	1.28%	4.77%	8.68%	12.64%	15.27%	15.49%	15.86%	14.55%	11.40%
Thor Akureyri	0.07%	1.35%	5.64%	9.61%	12.85%	14.14%	16.58%	15.77%	13.45%	10.54%
Stjarnan	0.10%	1.17%	5.06%	8.42%	11.62%	13.37%	15.60%	14.95%	15.58%	14.13%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+1.11%

No Edge

36.67%27.78%35.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.

221 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.19 goals

Neutral

-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.5

One-Team Race

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

81%

IA Akranes, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.380.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.06 * Some Luck: 4.06 to 6.08 * Lucky: 6.08 to 8.11 * Wild Swing: 8.11 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.76 * Off: 1.76 to 2.35 * Way Off: 2.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.02 * A Surprise: 1.02 to 1.64 * Several Surprises: 1.64 to 2.25 * Many Surprises: 2.25 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.59 points

Some Luck

05.0713

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

01.473

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

88.98%

Valur Reykjavik

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.75%

Stjarnan

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

2 of 2

Several Surprises

01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.45

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Strong Edge

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

68%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Frequent

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.80

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.75

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

Shaky Favorites

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.04

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.73

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.122

Well Within Noise

00.1760.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
IA Akranes	100%	—
FH Hafnarfjordur	99.87%	0.13%
Keflavik IF	96.88%	3.12%
KR Reykjavik	96.11%	3.89%
Valur Reykjavik	84.50%	15.50%
Thor Akureyri	76.01%	23.99%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	74.05%	25.95%
Stjarnan	70.29%	29.71%
Fram Reykjavik	63.29%	36.71%
Breidablik	39.00%	61.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1994-05-23	KR Reykjavik	L 0-5	1354	1456	23.3%	27.8%	48.9%	-22.3	0
1994-05-23	@ Breidablik	W 5-0	1456	1354	48.9%	27.8%	23.3%	+22.4	3
1994-05-23	Stjarnan	D 0-0	1361	1425	27.5%	28.8%	43.7%	+0.7	1
1994-05-23	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1425	1361	43.7%	28.8%	27.5%	-0.7	1
1994-05-23	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	1717	1604	51.2%	27.2%	21.6%	-1.3	1
1994-05-23	@ IA Akranes	D 0-0	1604	1717	21.6%	27.2%	51.2%	+1.3	1
1994-05-23	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	1408	1399	37.1%	29.4%	33.4%	-0.2	1
1994-05-23	@ Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	1399	1408	33.4%	29.4%	37.1%	+0.1	1
1994-05-23	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1439	1459	33.1%	29.4%	37.5%	+0.2	1
1994-05-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1459	1439	37.5%	29.4%	33.1%	-0.2	1
1994-05-26	Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	1605	1408	61.2%	23.4%	15.4%	+3.4	4
1994-05-26	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1408	1605	15.4%	23.4%	61.2%	-3.3	1
1994-05-26	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1399	1439	30.3%	29.2%	40.4%	+0.4	2
1994-05-26	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1439	1399	40.4%	29.2%	30.3%	-0.4	2
1994-05-26	Breidablik	W 4-0	1458	1331	52.9%	26.7%	20.4%	+16.1	4
1994-05-26	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-4	1331	1458	20.4%	26.7%	52.9%	-16.0	0
1994-05-26	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1424	1479	28.5%	29.0%	42.4%	-11.3	1
1994-05-26	@ Stjarnan	W 2-0	1479	1424	42.4%	29.0%	28.5%	+11.3	6
1994-05-27	IA Akranes	L 1-2	1362	1715	8.6%	15.4%	76.0%	-1.5	1
1994-05-27	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1715	1362	76.0%	15.4%	8.6%	+1.6	4
1994-06-01	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	1315	1399	25.2%	28.4%	46.4%	+16.2	3
1994-06-01	@ Breidablik	L 0-2	1399	1315	46.4%	28.4%	25.2%	-16.2	2
1994-06-01	Stjarnan	W 3-0	1717	1413	72.2%	17.6%	10.1%	+5.6	7
1994-06-01	@ IA Akranes	L 0-3	1413	1717	10.1%	17.6%	72.2%	-5.6	1
1994-06-01	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1490	1474	38.0%	29.4%	32.6%	-0.2	7
1994-06-01	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1474	1490	32.6%	29.4%	38.0%	+0.2	5
1994-06-01	Fram Reykjavik	D 3-3	1404	1360	42.0%	29.1%	28.9%	-0.3	2
1994-06-01	@ Thor Akureyri	D 3-3	1360	1404	28.9%	29.1%	42.0%	+0.3	2
1994-06-01	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1439	1608	17.7%	25.2%	57.1%	+10.1	5
1994-06-01	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1608	1439	57.1%	25.2%	17.7%	-10.1	4
1994-06-05	Breidablik	W 1-0	1598	1331	68.6%	19.7%	11.7%	+2.5	7
1994-06-05	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1331	1598	11.7%	19.7%	68.6%	-2.4	3
1994-06-05	Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	1723	1404	73.6%	16.9%	9.6%	+1.8	10
1994-06-05	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1404	1723	9.6%	16.9%	73.6%	-1.8	2
1994-06-05	KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1383	1490	22.9%	27.7%	49.4%	+9.0	5
1994-06-05	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1490	1383	49.4%	27.7%	22.9%	-9.0	7
1994-06-05	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1407	1475	27.0%	28.8%	44.2%	+0.7	2
1994-06-05	@ Stjarnan	D 1-1	1475	1407	44.2%	28.8%	27.0%	-0.6	6
1994-06-06	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1361	1449	24.8%	28.3%	47.0%	+23.8	5
1994-06-06	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	1449	1361	47.0%	28.3%	24.8%	-23.8	5
1994-06-09	Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1329	1384	28.4%	29.0%	42.5%	+0.4	4
1994-06-09	@ Breidablik	D 2-2	1384	1329	42.5%	29.0%	28.4%	-0.4	6
1994-06-09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	1474	1392	47.2%	28.2%	24.6%	-1.0	7
1994-06-09	@ Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1392	1474	24.6%	28.2%	47.2%	+1.0	6
1994-06-09	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1481	1601	21.7%	27.3%	51.0%	-4.8	7
1994-06-09	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1601	1481	51.0%	27.3%	21.7%	+4.8	10
1994-06-10	Stjarnan	D 0-0	1402	1408	35.0%	29.5%	35.5%	+0.0	3
1994-06-10	@ Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	1408	1402	35.5%	29.5%	35.0%	-0.0	3
1994-06-10	IA Akranes	L 0-1	1425	1724	10.7%	18.3%	71.0%	-2.2	5
1994-06-10	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1724	1425	71.0%	18.3%	10.7%	+2.2	13
1994-06-15	KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1384	1476	24.4%	28.2%	47.5%	-14.4	6
1994-06-15	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1476	1384	47.5%	28.2%	24.4%	+14.4	10
1994-06-16	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1605	1473	53.6%	26.5%	20.0%	+4.2	13
1994-06-16	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1473	1605	20.0%	26.5%	53.6%	-4.2	7
1994-06-16	Breidablik	W 6-0	1727	1329	80.2%	12.9%	6.9%	+6.6	16
1994-06-16	@ IA Akranes	L 0-6	1329	1727	6.9%	12.9%	80.2%	-6.6	4
1994-06-16	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1408	1393	38.0%	29.4%	32.6%	-0.1	4
1994-06-16	@ Stjarnan	D 2-2	1393	1408	32.6%	29.4%	38.0%	+0.1	7
1994-06-16	Valur Reykjavik	W 5-1	1402	1423	32.9%	29.4%	37.6%	+21.9	6
1994-06-16	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-5	1423	1402	37.6%	29.4%	32.9%	-21.9	5
1994-06-24	Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	1323	1424	23.4%	27.9%	48.7%	+1.0	5
1994-06-24	@ Breidablik	D 1-1	1424	1323	48.7%	27.9%	23.4%	-1.0	7
1994-06-24	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1393	1609	14.7%	22.8%	62.4%	-3.2	7
1994-06-24	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	1609	1393	62.4%	22.8%	14.7%	+3.2	16
1994-06-24	Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1469	1370	49.4%	27.7%	22.9%	-0.8	8
1994-06-24	@ Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1370	1469	22.9%	27.7%	49.4%	+0.8	7
1994-06-24	IA Akranes	D 0-0	1490	1733	13.3%	21.4%	65.3%	+2.4	11
1994-06-24	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1733	1490	65.3%	21.4%	13.3%	-2.4	17
1994-06-25	Stjarnan	W 3-2	1401	1408	34.8%	29.5%	35.7%	+6.3	8
1994-06-25	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 2-3	1408	1401	35.7%	29.5%	34.8%	-6.3	4
1994-07-06	Breidablik	L 1-3	1407	1324	47.4%	28.2%	24.4%	-14.3	8
1994-07-06	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1324	1407	24.4%	28.2%	47.4%	+14.3	8
1994-07-07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1370	1390	33.1%	29.4%	37.5%	+0.1	8
1994-07-07	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1390	1370	37.5%	29.4%	33.1%	-0.1	8
1994-07-07	Keflavik IF	L 0-2	1731	1468	68.2%	19.9%	11.9%	-21.8	17
1994-07-07	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	1468	1731	11.9%	19.9%	68.2%	+21.8	11
1994-07-07	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	1401	1613	15.0%	23.1%	61.9%	+1.9	5
1994-07-07	@ Stjarnan	D 1-1	1613	1401	61.9%	23.1%	15.0%	-1.9	17
1994-07-07	KR Reykjavik	W 4-2	1423	1493	26.8%	28.7%	44.5%	+12.2	10
1994-07-07	@ Thor Akureyri	L 2-4	1493	1423	44.5%	28.7%	26.8%	-12.2	11
1994-07-11	Stjarnan	L 1-2	1338	1403	27.3%	28.8%	43.9%	-5.5	8
1994-07-11	@ Breidablik	W 2-1	1403	1338	43.9%	28.8%	27.3%	+5.5	8
1994-07-11	IA Akranes	L 0-2	1390	1709	9.8%	17.2%	72.9%	-3.7	8
1994-07-11	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	1709	1390	72.9%	17.2%	9.8%	+3.7	20
1994-07-11	Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	1490	1435	43.5%	28.9%	27.7%	+5.5	14
1994-07-11	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1435	1490	27.7%	28.9%	43.5%	-5.5	10
1994-07-11	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1481	1393	47.9%	28.1%	24.0%	-1.0	12
1994-07-11	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1393	1481	24.0%	28.1%	47.9%	+1.0	9
1994-07-12	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1611	1370	65.8%	21.1%	13.0%	-10.6	17
1994-07-12	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	1370	1611	13.0%	21.1%	65.8%	+10.6	11
1994-07-21	IA Akranes	D 0-0	1600	1713	22.4%	27.5%	50.1%	+1.2	18
1994-07-21	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	1713	1600	50.1%	27.5%	22.4%	-1.2	21
1994-07-21	Thor Akureyri	W 6-1	1386	1430	29.9%	29.2%	40.9%	+28.5	11
1994-07-21	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-6	1430	1386	40.9%	29.2%	29.9%	-28.5	10
1994-07-21	Valur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1495	1394	49.7%	27.6%	22.7%	-0.7	15
1994-07-21	@ Keflavik IF	D 3-3	1394	1495	22.7%	27.6%	49.7%	+0.7	10
1994-07-21	Breidablik	L 0-1	1480	1333	55.4%	25.8%	18.8%	-9.9	12
1994-07-21	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1333	1480	18.8%	25.8%	55.4%	+9.9	11
1994-07-21	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1409	1381	39.8%	29.3%	30.9%	-7.2	8
1994-07-21	@ Stjarnan	W 2-1	1381	1409	30.9%	29.3%	39.8%	+7.2	14
1994-07-27	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 5-1	1395	1415	33.0%	29.4%	37.6%	+21.9	13
1994-07-27	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-5	1415	1395	37.6%	29.4%	33.0%	-21.9	11
1994-07-28	Keflavik IF	L 1-3	1342	1495	19.0%	25.9%	55.1%	-6.8	11
1994-07-28	@ Breidablik	W 3-1	1495	1342	55.1%	25.9%	19.0%	+6.8	18
1994-07-28	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1711	1388	74.0%	16.6%	9.4%	+3.5	24
1994-07-28	@ IA Akranes	L 0-2	1388	1711	9.4%	16.6%	74.0%	-3.5	14
1994-07-28	Stjarnan	W 2-0	1470	1402	45.3%	28.6%	26.1%	+10.5	15
1994-07-28	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1402	1470	26.1%	28.6%	45.3%	-10.5	8
1994-07-28	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-3	1401	1601	15.7%	23.7%	60.6%	-5.6	10
1994-07-28	@ Thor Akureyri	W 3-1	1601	1401	60.6%	23.7%	15.7%	+5.6	21
1994-08-04	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1607	1417	60.4%	23.8%	15.8%	-10.6	21
1994-08-04	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1417	1607	15.8%	23.8%	60.4%	+10.6	16
1994-08-04	Breidablik	W 1-0	1393	1336	43.9%	28.8%	27.3%	+5.8	14
1994-08-04	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1336	1393	27.3%	28.8%	43.9%	-5.8	11
1994-08-04	KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	1502	1480	38.9%	29.4%	31.8%	-0.2	19
1994-08-04	@ Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1480	1502	31.8%	29.4%	38.9%	+0.2	16
1994-08-04	IA Akranes	L 1-4	1391	1715	9.7%	17.0%	73.3%	-4.4	8
1994-08-04	@ Stjarnan	W 4-1	1715	1391	73.3%	17.0%	9.7%	+4.4	27
1994-08-07	Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	1385	1396	34.2%	29.5%	36.3%	+0.1	15
1994-08-07	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1396	1385	36.3%	29.5%	34.2%	-0.1	11
1994-08-14	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 3-4	1330	1596	12.1%	20.1%	67.8%	-2.2	11
1994-08-14	@ Breidablik	W 4-3	1596	1330	67.8%	20.1%	12.1%	+2.2	24
1994-08-14	Stjarnan	W 4-1	1501	1387	51.4%	27.2%	21.5%	+10.9	22
1994-08-14	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-4	1387	1501	21.5%	27.2%	51.4%	-10.9	8
1994-08-14	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1480	1399	47.2%	28.2%	24.6%	-0.9	17
1994-08-14	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1399	1480	24.6%	28.2%	47.2%	+0.9	15
1994-08-14	IA Akranes	L 0-3	1396	1719	9.7%	17.0%	73.3%	-5.3	11
1994-08-14	@ Thor Akureyri	W 3-0	1719	1396	73.3%	17.0%	9.7%	+5.3	30
1994-08-14	Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1427	1385	41.8%	29.1%	29.1%	+6.1	19
1994-08-14	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1385	1427	29.1%	29.1%	41.8%	-6.1	15
1994-08-20	KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	1599	1480	51.9%	27.0%	21.1%	-8.8	24
1994-08-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	1480	1599	21.1%	27.0%	51.9%	+8.9	20
1994-08-20	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1725	1433	71.0%	18.3%	10.7%	+2.0	33
1994-08-20	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1433	1725	10.7%	18.3%	71.0%	-2.0	19
1994-08-20	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1399	1512	22.3%	27.5%	50.2%	+8.6	18
1994-08-20	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-2	1512	1399	50.2%	27.5%	22.3%	-8.6	22
1994-08-21	Thor Akureyri	L 2-3	1376	1390	33.7%	29.4%	36.8%	-6.1	8
1994-08-21	@ Stjarnan	W 3-2	1390	1376	36.8%	29.4%	33.7%	+6.1	14
1994-08-22	Breidablik	W 2-1	1379	1328	43.0%	28.9%	28.0%	+5.6	18
1994-08-22	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1328	1379	28.0%	28.9%	43.0%	-5.6	11
1994-09-03	IA Akranes	L 0-1	1322	1727	6.9%	12.9%	80.2%	-1.3	11
1994-09-03	@ Breidablik	W 1-0	1727	1322	80.2%	12.9%	6.9%	+1.3	36
1994-09-03	Stjarnan	L 1-2	1408	1370	41.3%	29.2%	29.6%	-7.4	18
1994-09-03	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-1	1370	1408	29.6%	29.2%	41.3%	+7.4	11
1994-09-03	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1504	1590	25.0%	28.3%	46.7%	-5.1	22
1994-09-03	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1590	1504	46.7%	28.3%	25.0%	+5.1	27
1994-09-03	Fram Reykjavik	D 3-3	1488	1384	50.0%	27.5%	22.4%	-0.7	21
1994-09-03	@ KR Reykjavik	D 3-3	1384	1488	22.4%	27.5%	50.0%	+0.7	19
1994-09-03	Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	1431	1397	40.7%	29.2%	30.0%	+6.2	22
1994-09-03	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1397	1431	30.0%	29.2%	40.7%	-6.2	14
1994-09-10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-1	1595	1401	60.8%	23.6%	15.6%	+3.2	30
1994-09-10	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1401	1595	15.6%	23.6%	60.8%	-3.2	18
1994-09-10	KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	1728	1488	65.8%	21.1%	13.0%	-10.6	36
1994-09-10	@ IA Akranes	W 2-1	1488	1728	13.0%	21.1%	65.8%	+10.6	24
1994-09-10	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1377	1437	27.9%	28.9%	43.2%	-9.6	11
1994-09-10	@ Stjarnan	W 3-1	1437	1377	43.2%	28.9%	27.9%	+9.6	25
1994-09-10	Breidablik	L 1-3	1390	1321	45.5%	28.5%	25.9%	-13.8	14
1994-09-10	@ Thor Akureyri	W 3-1	1321	1390	25.9%	28.5%	45.5%	+13.8	14
1994-09-11	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1385	1498	22.3%	27.5%	50.2%	-4.6	19
1994-09-11	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1498	1385	50.2%	27.5%	22.3%	+4.6	25
1994-09-17	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1335	1447	22.4%	27.5%	50.1%	+17.2	17
1994-09-17	@ Breidablik	L 0-2	1447	1335	50.1%	27.5%	22.4%	-17.2	25
1994-09-17	Stjarnan	W 4-1	1598	1367	64.8%	21.7%	13.5%	+6.7	33
1994-09-17	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-4	1367	1598	13.5%	21.7%	64.8%	-6.7	11
1994-09-17	Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1397	1380	38.2%	29.4%	32.4%	-0.2	19
1994-09-17	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1380	1397	32.4%	29.4%	38.2%	+0.2	20
1994-09-17	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1503	1717	14.8%	22.9%	62.2%	+10.2	28
1994-09-17	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1717	1503	62.2%	22.9%	14.8%	-10.2	36
1994-09-17	Thor Akureyri	W 3-2	1498	1376	52.3%	26.9%	20.8%	+4.1	27
1994-09-17	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1376	1498	20.8%	26.9%	52.3%	-4.1	14
1994-09-24	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1381	1605	14.3%	22.4%	63.3%	-2.9	20
1994-09-24	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1605	1381	63.3%	22.4%	14.3%	+2.9	36
1994-09-24	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 5-1	1707	1397	72.8%	17.3%	9.9%	+5.9	39
1994-09-24	@ IA Akranes	L 1-5	1397	1707	9.9%	17.3%	72.8%	-5.9	19
1994-09-24	Breidablik	L 1-3	1361	1352	37.1%	29.4%	33.5%	-11.9	11
1994-09-24	@ Stjarnan	W 3-1	1352	1361	33.5%	29.4%	37.1%	+11.9	20
1994-09-24	Keflavik IF	L 3-4	1372	1513	19.9%	26.4%	53.7%	-3.8	14
1994-09-24	@ Thor Akureyri	W 4-3	1513	1372	53.7%	26.4%	19.9%	+3.8	31
1994-09-24	KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	1430	1502	26.4%	28.7%	44.9%	+15.8	28
1994-09-24	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1502	1430	44.9%	28.7%	26.4%	-15.8	27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1994-07-07	11.92%	Keflavik IF	1468	2	@ IA Akranes	1731	0
2	1994-07-12	13.01%	Fram Reykjavik	1370	2	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1611	1
3	1994-09-10	13.01%	KR Reykjavik	1488	2	@ IA Akranes	1728	1
4	1994-09-17	14.83%	@ Keflavik IF	1503	2	IA Akranes	1717	1
5	1994-08-04	15.81%	Valur Reykjavik	1417	1	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1607	0
6	1994-06-01	17.70%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1439	1	FH Hafnarfjordur	1608	0
7	1994-07-21	18.78%	Breidablik	1333	1	@ KR Reykjavik	1480	0
8	1994-08-20	21.09%	KR Reykjavik	1480	2	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1599	1
9	1994-08-20	22.34%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1399	2	Keflavik IF	1512	1
10	1994-09-17	22.37%	@ Breidablik	1335	2	Valur Reykjavik	1447	0
11	1994-06-05	22.90%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1383	1	KR Reykjavik	1490	0
12	1994-07-06	24.44%	Breidablik	1324	3	@ Valur Reykjavik	1407	1
13	1994-06-06	24.77%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1361	3	Valur Reykjavik	1449	0
14	1994-06-01	25.21%	@ Breidablik	1315	2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1399	0
15	1994-09-10	25.93%	Breidablik	1321	3	@ Thor Akureyri	1390	1
16	1994-09-24	26.44%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1430	2	KR Reykjavik	1502	0
17	1994-07-07	26.79%	@ Thor Akureyri	1423	4	KR Reykjavik	1493	2
18	1994-09-03	29.58%	Stjarnan	1370	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1408	1
19	1994-07-21	29.87%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1386	6	Thor Akureyri	1430	1
20	1994-07-21	30.95%	Fram Reykjavik	1381	2	@ Stjarnan	1409	1
21	1994-06-16	32.93%	@ Thor Akureyri	1402	5	Valur Reykjavik	1423	1
22	1994-07-27	33.01%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1395	5	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1415	1
23	1994-09-24	33.45%	Breidablik	1352	3	@ Stjarnan	1361	1
24	1994-06-25	34.85%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1401	3	Stjarnan	1408	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1994-07-21	28.54	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	6	1386	29.87%	Thor Akureyri	1	1430	40.94%	29.19%
2	1994-06-06	23.77	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1361	24.77%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1449	46.96%	28.27%
3	1994-05-23	22.35	KR Reykjavik	5	1456	48.88%	@ Breidablik	0	1354	23.29%	27.83%
4	1994-06-16	21.91	@ Thor Akureyri	5	1402	32.93%	Valur Reykjavik	1	1423	37.65%	29.42%
5	1994-07-27	21.87	@ Valur Reykjavik	5	1395	33.01%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1	1415	37.57%	29.42%
6	1994-07-07	21.75	Keflavik IF	2	1468	11.92%	@ IA Akranes	0	1731	68.16%	19.92%
7	1994-09-17	17.23	@ Breidablik	2	1335	22.37%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1447	50.12%	27.51%
8	1994-06-01	16.22	@ Breidablik	2	1315	25.21%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1399	46.41%	28.38%
9	1994-05-26	16.05	@ Keflavik IF	4	1458	52.94%	Breidablik	0	1331	20.38%	26.68%
10	1994-09-24	15.81	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1430	26.44%	KR Reykjavik	0	1502	44.90%	28.66%
11	1994-06-15	14.43	KR Reykjavik	3	1476	47.47%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1384	24.37%	28.16%
12	1994-07-06	14.27	Breidablik	3	1324	24.44%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1407	47.38%	28.18%
13	1994-09-10	13.84	Breidablik	3	1321	25.93%	@ Thor Akureyri	1	1390	45.52%	28.55%
14	1994-07-07	12.16	@ Thor Akureyri	4	1423	26.79%	KR Reykjavik	2	1493	44.48%	28.73%
15	1994-09-24	11.87	Breidablik	3	1352	33.45%	@ Stjarnan	1	1361	37.11%	29.44%
16	1994-05-26	11.30	KR Reykjavik	2	1479	42.44%	@ Stjarnan	0	1424	28.54%	29.02%
17	1994-08-14	10.88	@ Keflavik IF	4	1501	51.39%	Stjarnan	1	1387	21.46%	27.16%
18	1994-07-12	10.62	Fram Reykjavik	2	1370	13.01%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	1611	65.84%	21.15%
19	1994-09-10	10.61	KR Reykjavik	2	1488	13.01%	@ IA Akranes	1	1728	65.84%	21.15%
20	1994-08-04	10.57	Valur Reykjavik	1	1417	15.81%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1607	60.40%	23.79%
21	1994-07-28	10.51	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1470	45.34%	Stjarnan	0	1402	26.08%	28.58%
22	1994-09-17	10.19	@ Keflavik IF	2	1503	14.83%	IA Akranes	1	1717	62.22%	22.95%
23	1994-06-01	10.13	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1439	17.70%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1608	57.12%	25.18%
24	1994-07-21	9.88	Breidablik	1	1333	18.78%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1480	55.37%	25.84%
25	1994-09-10	9.60	Valur Reykjavik	3	1437	43.22%	@ Stjarnan	1	1377	27.86%	28.92%