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1993 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

49 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 1992.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

11 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

9.37 points above expected

49 points · 39.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

8.04 points below expected

20 points · 28.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 16 1 1 49 62 16 +46 39.63 +9.37
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 12 4 2 40 39 21 +18 30.93 +9.07
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 3 7 27 31 31 0 19.95 +7.05
4 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 38 37 +1 27.60 -2.60
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 37 34 +3 31.60 -7.60
6 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 22 25 24 +1 26.32 -4.32
7 Thor Akureyri 18 5 5 8 20 20 30 -10 28.04 -8.04
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 4 9 19 31 41 -10 17.44 +1.56
9 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 18 6 1 11 19 22 35 -13 17.06 +1.94
10 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 2 13 11 23 59 -36 16.32 -5.32

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 49 39.63 +9.37
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 40 30.93 +9.07
3 Keflavik IF 27 19.95 +7.05
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 19 17.06 +1.94
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 17.44 +1.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 20 28.04 -8.04
2 KR Reykjavik 24 31.60 -7.60
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 16.32 -5.32
4 Valur Reykjavik 22 26.32 -4.32
5 Fram Reykjavik 25 27.60 -2.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 18 – Aug 22 1 in 43
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Sep 3 – Sep 11 1 in 33
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 21 – Jul 15 1 in 32
4 IA Akranes 8 Jun 20 – Aug 12 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 Sep 3 – Sep 25 1 in 182
2 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 8 – Aug 18 1 in 111
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 6 – Jul 22 1 in 56
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 28 – Jun 7 1 in 21
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jul 28 – Aug 27 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 May 27 – Jul 22 1 in 70
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 7 – Jun 24 1 in 41
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 18 – Aug 22 1 in 10
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Sep 3 – Sep 11 1 in 8
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 5 Jun 24 – Jul 29 1 in 51
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 May 23 – Aug 8 1 in 36
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Sep 3 – Sep 25 1 in 24
4 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 8 – Aug 18 1 in 17
5 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 20 – Sep 25 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1715 49 +31 15 12.8 +2.2
FH Hafnarfjordur 1553 40 +110 13 10.3 +2.7
Keflavik IF 1347 27 +23 7 6.6 +0.4
Fram Reykjavik 1202 25 -251 3 8.9 -5.9
KR Reykjavik 1337 24 +41 8 7.1 +0.9
Valur Reykjavik 1309 22 -17 3 4.9 -1.9
Thor Akureyri 1279 20 -102 2 7.8 -5.8
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1257 19 +141 7 3.6 +3.4
Fylkir Reykjavik 1228 19 +60 6 5.1 +0.9
Vikingur Reykjavik 1061 11 -33 6 4.1 +1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.95
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.57
1-1-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.52
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.36
 —
1-0-1
3.68
1-1-0
1.16
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
3.62
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.17
1-0-1
4.34
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
2.00
 —
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
2.41
2-0-0
0.93
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
1.34
1-0-1
1.42
1-0-1
3.00
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.51
0-1-1
4.52
2-0-0
4.98
 —
2-0-0
5.02
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
4.90
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
4.97
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.25
2-0-0
3.26
0-0-2
0.69
 —
0-1-1
1.50
0-0-2
3.23
0-2-0
1.46
1-0-1
1.61
2-0-0
3.03
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
3.57
0-0-2
4.75
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
4.18
 —
1-1-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
4.59
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.05
1-1-0
3.00
0-0-2
0.79
2-0-0
2.44
0-1-1
1.74
 —
1-1-0
1.95
1-0-1
2.16
2-0-0
3.87
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
1.85
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-1
4.34
0-0-2
1.69
0-2-0
4.22
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
3.73
 —
0-1-1
3.04
2-0-0
4.17
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
4.26
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-1
4.06
0-1-1
2.38
1-0-1
3.52
1-1-0
2.63
 —
1-1-0
4.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
1.34
1-0-1
2.67
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
2.65
1-0-1
1.10
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
1.68
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +7.9
Allowed 0.67 -7.6
Differential 0.93 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%5.56%5.56%0.56%1.67%2.22%18.89%
15.56%6.67%8.89%4.44%3.89%2.22%31.67%
25.56%8.89%4.44%2.22%2.78%2.22%26.11%
30.56%4.44%2.22%1.11%——8.33%
41.67%3.89%2.78%———8.33%
5+2.22%2.22%2.22%———6.67%
Total18.89%31.67%26.11%8.33%8.33%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.82 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.53
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————11.11%22.22%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%————11.11%
411.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.17 +1.00
SD 1.62 1.54 2.57
CV 0.75 1.32 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total5.56%33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.06 +0.06
SD 1.75 1.21 2.60
CV 0.83 0.59 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.94 -0.72
SD 1.00 1.51 2.14
CV 0.82 0.78 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—————16.67%
211.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+16.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
Total44.44%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.44 0.89 +2.56
SD 2.23 1.13 2.48
CV 0.65 1.27 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%50.00%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%38.89%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.28 -0.56
SD 1.96 1.49 2.50
CV 1.14 0.65 —
Max 9 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%44.44%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.89 +0.17
SD 1.73 1.13 2.18
CV 0.84 0.60 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.32 2.03
CV 0.74 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
111.11%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—50.00%
2—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%50.00%16.67%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 1.18 1.68 2.12
CV 1.06 1.01 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
1—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%50.00%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.33 +0.06
SD 1.38 0.77 1.59
CV 0.99 0.58 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
1——5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%33.33%
25.56%5.56%—11.11%5.56%11.11%38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%16.67%22.22%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 3.28 -2.00
SD 0.89 2.91 2.81
CV 0.70 0.89 —
Max 3 10 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1715 49 39.63 +9.37 97.0% 27 32 36 40 43 47 51
FH Hafnarfjordur 1553 40 30.93 +9.07 97.0% 15 22 28 31 34 39 41
Keflavik IF 1347 27 19.95 +7.05 96.0% 10 12 17 20 23 26 32
KR Reykjavik 1337 24 31.60 -7.60 9.0% 18 22 28 31 36 40 47
Valur Reykjavik 1309 22 26.32 -4.32 24.0% 14 19 23 26 30 34 38
Thor Akureyri 1279 20 28.04 -8.04 5.0% 14 20 24 28 32 37 40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1257 19 17.44 +1.56 67.0% 6 11 14 17 20 25 30
Fylkir Reykjavik 1228 19 17.06 +1.94 72.0% 4 10 13 18 20 24 33
Fram Reykjavik 1202 25 27.60 -2.60 38.0% 17 18 23 28 31 37 44
Vikingur Reykjavik 1061 11 16.32 -5.32 12.0% 3 8 13 16 19 23 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Clear Edge
48.89%15.56%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
72%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Runaway
00.320.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.02 * Some Luck: 4.02 to 6.03 * Lucky: 6.03 to 8.05 * Wild Swing: 8.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.08 * Way Off: 2.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.88 * A Surprise: 0.88 to 1.41 * Several Surprises: 1.41 to 1.94 * Many Surprises: 1.94 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.34 points
Lucky
05.0313
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 184.29
1.88
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.59
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes72.00%17.00%9.00%1.00%1.00%—————
FH Hafnarfjordur8.00%26.00%26.00%15.00%14.00%8.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Keflavik IF——1.00%3.00%6.00%16.00%30.00%19.00%15.00%10.00%
Fram Reykjavik6.00%7.00%15.00%20.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%8.00%2.00%—
KR Reykjavik9.00%30.00%17.00%24.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%——
Valur Reykjavik1.00%9.00%16.00%15.00%18.00%22.00%10.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%
Thor Akureyri4.00%11.00%14.00%17.00%23.00%20.00%8.00%1.00%2.00%—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar——1.00%2.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%25.00%32.00%21.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik——1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%15.00%18.00%25.00%30.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik———1.00%3.00%4.00%12.00%23.00%19.00%38.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
KR Reykjavik 100% —
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.00% 1.00%
Fram Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Thor Akureyri 98.00% 2.00%
Valur Reykjavik 95.00% 5.00%
Keflavik IF 75.00% 25.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 47.00% 53.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 45.00% 55.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 43.00% 57.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1993-05-23 IA Akranes L 0-536.3 1338 1404 39.08% 16.50% 44.42%-0.10 -94.4 0
1993-05-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-036.3 1404 1338 44.42% 16.50% 39.08%+0.10 +94.4 3
1993-05-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-246.9 1270 1288 45.76% 16.49% 37.75%+0.15 -23.1 0
1993-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.9 1288 1270 37.75% 16.49% 45.76%-0.15 +23.0 3
1993-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-143.8 1193 1207 46.37% 16.49% 37.14%+0.17 +19.3 3
1993-05-23 @ Keflavik IF L 1-243.8 1207 1193 37.14% 16.49% 46.37%-0.17 -19.3 0
1993-05-23 Thor Akureyri W 2-041.5 1494 1434 55.95% 16.39% 27.65%+0.55 +30.0 3
1993-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-241.5 1434 1494 27.65% 16.39% 55.95%-0.55 -30.0 0
1993-05-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-140.6 1352 1307 54.12% 16.42% 29.46%+0.47 +27.4 3
1993-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-340.6 1307 1352 29.46% 16.42% 54.12%-0.47 -27.4 0
1993-05-27 Thor Akureyri L 1-245.2 1311 1404 35.24% 16.48% 48.28%-0.24 -18.5 3
1993-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.2 1404 1311 48.28% 16.48% 35.24%+0.24 +18.5 3
1993-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 1-050.9 1498 1524 44.64% 16.49% 38.86%+0.10 +21.3 6
1993-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-150.9 1524 1498 38.86% 16.49% 44.64%-0.10 -21.3 3
1993-05-27 Keflavik IF L 1-248.6 1247 1212 52.77% 16.44% 30.79%+0.42 -26.2 0
1993-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.6 1212 1247 30.79% 16.44% 52.77%-0.42 +26.2 6
1993-05-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-051.5 1280 1244 53.01% 16.43% 30.55%+0.43 -3.1 1
1993-05-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-051.5 1244 1280 30.55% 16.43% 53.01%-0.43 +3.1 1
1993-05-28 Valur Reykjavik W 2-151.3 1188 1380 23.35% 16.30% 60.35%-0.75 +29.8 3
1993-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-251.3 1380 1188 60.35% 16.30% 23.35%+0.75 -29.8 3
1993-06-05 IA Akranes L 0-146.7 1423 1519 34.81% 16.48% 48.72%-0.26 -19.4 3
1993-06-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-046.7 1519 1423 48.72% 16.48% 34.81%+0.26 +19.4 9
1993-06-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 7-234.3 1503 1277 71.47% 15.82% 12.72%+1.41 +23.8 6
1993-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-734.3 1277 1503 12.72% 15.82% 71.47%-1.41 -23.8 1
1993-06-07 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-032.1 1247 1217 52.16% 16.44% 31.39%+0.39 +63.5 4
1993-06-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-432.1 1217 1247 31.39% 16.44% 52.16%-0.39 -63.5 3
1993-06-07 Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.9 1239 1293 40.69% 16.50% 42.81%-0.04 +21.8 9
1993-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 1-245.9 1293 1239 42.81% 16.50% 40.69%+0.04 -21.8 3
1993-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-148.2 1350 1220 63.50% 16.21% 20.29%+0.91 -33.2 3
1993-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-048.2 1220 1350 20.29% 16.21% 63.50%-0.91 +33.2 3
1993-06-09 Thor Akureyri L 1-242.3 1253 1403 27.99% 16.40% 55.61%-0.54 -15.1 1
1993-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-142.3 1403 1253 55.61% 16.40% 27.99%+0.54 +15.1 6
1993-06-10 IA Akranes W 4-258.6 1271 1539 16.39% 16.05% 67.57%-1.14 +51.6 6
1993-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-458.6 1539 1271 67.57% 16.05% 16.39%+1.14 -51.6 9
1993-06-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.4 1254 1310 40.29% 16.50% 43.21%-0.05 +0.3 4
1993-06-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-259.4 1310 1254 43.21% 16.50% 40.29%+0.05 -0.3 5
1993-06-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-343.3 1260 1317 40.36% 16.50% 43.14%-0.05 -35.9 9
1993-06-10 @ Keflavik IF W 3-143.3 1317 1260 43.14% 16.50% 40.36%+0.05 +35.9 6
1993-06-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-156.3 1154 1527 9.69% 15.53% 74.77%-1.68 +37.0 6
1993-06-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-256.3 1527 1154 74.77% 15.53% 9.69%+1.68 -37.0 6
1993-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik W 10-130.2 1487 1238 72.98% 15.70% 11.32%+1.53 +44.1 12
1993-06-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-1030.2 1238 1487 11.32% 15.70% 72.98%-1.53 -44.1 1
1993-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-261.5 1490 1254 72.13% 15.77% 12.11%+1.46 -5.8 7
1993-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-261.5 1254 1490 12.11% 15.77% 72.13%-1.46 +5.8 5
1993-06-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-033.0 1419 1191 71.57% 15.81% 12.62%+1.42 +7.7 9
1993-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-133.0 1191 1419 12.62% 15.81% 71.57%-1.42 -7.7 6
1993-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 4-139.3 1353 1322 52.26% 16.44% 31.29%+0.40 +40.9 9
1993-06-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-439.3 1322 1353 31.29% 16.44% 52.26%-0.40 -40.9 6
1993-06-21 Keflavik IF W 5-134.6 1310 1224 58.92% 16.34% 24.75%+0.68 +42.9 8
1993-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-534.6 1224 1310 24.75% 16.34% 58.92%-0.68 -42.9 9
1993-06-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-136.0 1282 1194 59.16% 16.33% 24.51%+0.69 +33.0 9
1993-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-436.0 1194 1282 24.51% 16.33% 59.16%-0.69 -33.0 1
1993-06-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-155.9 1260 1426 26.11% 16.36% 57.52%-0.62 +3.9 6
1993-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.9 1426 1260 57.52% 16.36% 26.11%+0.62 -3.9 10
1993-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 1-433.7 1182 1484 13.84% 15.90% 70.27%-1.32 -19.5 9
1993-06-24 @ Keflavik IF W 4-133.7 1484 1182 70.27% 15.90% 13.84%+1.32 +19.5 10
1993-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-251.1 1394 1353 53.56% 16.43% 30.01%+0.45 -26.6 9
1993-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-151.1 1353 1394 30.01% 16.43% 53.56%-0.45 +26.6 11
1993-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-335.5 1183 1531 11.01% 15.67% 73.32%-1.56 -11.1 6
1993-06-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-135.5 1531 1183 73.32% 15.67% 11.01%+1.56 +11.1 15
1993-06-30 Valur Reykjavik W 2-037.1 1503 1367 64.17% 16.19% 19.65%+0.94 +22.0 13
1993-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-237.1 1367 1503 19.65% 16.19% 64.17%-0.94 -22.0 9
1993-07-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-140.3 1380 1315 56.56% 16.38% 27.06%+0.58 +25.5 14
1993-07-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-340.3 1315 1380 27.06% 16.38% 56.56%-0.58 -25.5 9
1993-07-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-136.8 1542 1264 74.72% 15.54% 9.74%+1.68 +9.8 18
1993-07-01 @ IA Akranes L 1-336.8 1264 1542 9.74% 15.54% 74.72%-1.68 -9.8 6
1993-07-01 Keflavik IF D 1-155.3 1422 1162 73.66% 15.64% 10.69%+1.58 -8.3 11
1993-07-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-155.3 1162 1422 10.69% 15.64% 73.66%-1.58 +8.3 10
1993-07-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-240.0 1161 1172 46.73% 16.49% 36.79%+0.18 -47.0 1
1993-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-040.0 1172 1161 36.79% 16.49% 46.73%-0.18 +47.0 9
1993-07-14 Thor Akureyri W 2-148.8 1345 1414 38.54% 16.49% 44.97%-0.12 +22.7 12
1993-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.8 1414 1345 44.97% 16.49% 38.54%+0.12 -22.7 11
1993-07-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-048.8 1405 1525 31.68% 16.45% 51.87%-0.38 +51.6 17
1993-07-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-248.8 1525 1405 51.87% 16.45% 31.68%+0.38 -51.6 13
1993-07-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-030.5 1289 1219 57.13% 16.37% 26.50%+0.60 +67.5 12
1993-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-530.5 1219 1289 26.50% 16.37% 57.13%-0.60 -67.5 9
1993-07-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-243.0 1254 1114 64.50% 16.18% 19.33%+0.96 +10.3 9
1993-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-343.0 1114 1254 19.33% 16.18% 64.50%-0.96 -10.3 1
1993-07-15 IA Akranes L 1-237.2 1170 1552 9.26% 15.48% 75.26%-1.73 -5.4 10
1993-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-137.2 1552 1170 75.26% 15.48% 9.26%+1.73 +5.4 21
1993-07-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-242.5 1152 1264 32.70% 16.46% 50.84%-0.34 -17.3 9
1993-07-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-142.5 1264 1152 50.84% 16.46% 32.70%+0.34 +17.3 12
1993-07-22 Valur Reykjavik W 1-040.1 1557 1368 68.80% 15.98% 15.22%+1.22 +9.2 24
1993-07-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-140.1 1368 1557 15.22% 15.98% 68.80%-1.22 -9.2 12
1993-07-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-055.8 1391 1457 39.09% 16.50% 44.41%-0.10 +0.7 12
1993-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-055.8 1457 1391 44.41% 16.50% 39.09%+0.10 -0.7 18
1993-07-22 Keflavik IF L 0-140.4 1104 1165 39.64% 16.50% 43.87%-0.08 -21.7 1
1993-07-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-040.4 1165 1104 43.87% 16.50% 39.64%+0.08 +21.7 13
1993-07-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-451.3 1474 1357 62.29% 16.25% 21.47%+0.85 -75.2 13
1993-07-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-151.3 1357 1474 21.47% 16.25% 62.29%-0.85 +75.2 15
1993-07-26 Valur Reykjavik D 0-051.3 1082 1358 15.71% 16.01% 68.28%-1.19 +7.6 2
1993-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-051.3 1358 1082 68.28% 16.01% 15.71%+1.19 -7.6 13
1993-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-039.5 1567 1456 61.61% 16.27% 22.12%+0.81 +57.4 27
1993-07-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-539.5 1456 1567 22.12% 16.27% 61.61%-0.81 -57.4 18
1993-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-134.1 1432 1281 65.46% 16.14% 18.40%+1.02 +32.8 18
1993-07-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-534.1 1281 1432 18.40% 16.14% 65.46%-1.02 -32.8 12
1993-07-29 Keflavik IF D 2-258.8 1134 1187 40.94% 16.50% 42.57%-0.03 +0.2 10
1993-07-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-258.8 1187 1134 42.57% 16.50% 40.94%+0.03 -0.1 14
1993-07-29 KR Reykjavik L 1-250.1 1392 1399 47.39% 16.48% 36.13%+0.21 -23.8 12
1993-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-150.1 1399 1392 36.13% 16.48% 47.39%-0.21 +23.8 16
1993-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-237.2 1399 1089 76.32% 15.36% 8.32%+1.84 +7.6 21
1993-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-437.2 1089 1399 8.32% 15.36% 76.32%-1.84 -7.6 2
1993-08-08 IA Akranes L 1-446.6 1422 1624 22.35% 16.27% 61.38%-0.80 -30.4 16
1993-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-146.6 1624 1422 61.38% 16.27% 22.35%+0.80 +30.4 30
1993-08-08 Fram Reykjavik W 1-047.5 1368 1465 34.83% 16.48% 48.70%-0.26 +25.8 15
1993-08-08 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-147.5 1465 1368 48.70% 16.48% 34.83%+0.26 -25.8 18
1993-08-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-035.9 1186 1249 39.54% 16.50% 43.97%-0.08 +84.5 17
1993-08-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-435.9 1249 1186 43.97% 16.50% 39.54%+0.08 -84.5 12
1993-08-09 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-238.8 1351 1134 70.79% 15.86% 13.35%+1.36 +11.9 16
1993-08-09 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-438.8 1134 1351 13.35% 15.86% 70.79%-1.36 -11.9 10
1993-08-11 KR Reykjavik W 3-258.5 1082 1392 13.31% 15.86% 70.83%-1.36 +33.2 5
1993-08-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-358.5 1392 1082 70.83% 15.86% 13.31%+1.36 -33.2 16
1993-08-12 Keflavik IF W 2-139.5 1439 1271 67.00% 16.07% 16.93%+1.11 +9.6 21
1993-08-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-239.5 1271 1439 16.93% 16.07% 67.00%-1.11 -9.6 17
1993-08-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-230.8 1123 1406 15.18% 15.98% 68.84%-1.22 -17.4 10
1993-08-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-030.8 1406 1123 68.84% 15.98% 15.18%+1.22 +17.4 24
1993-08-12 Thor Akureyri W 6-037.1 1654 1394 73.66% 15.64% 10.70%+1.58 +34.6 33
1993-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-637.1 1394 1654 10.70% 15.64% 73.66%-1.58 -34.6 15
1993-08-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-233.1 1164 1363 22.65% 16.28% 61.07%-0.79 -25.1 12
1993-08-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-033.1 1363 1164 61.07% 16.28% 22.65%+0.79 +25.1 19
1993-08-18 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-352.5 1359 1105 73.26% 15.68% 11.06%+1.55 -62.7 16
1993-08-18 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-152.5 1105 1359 11.06% 15.68% 73.26%-1.55 +62.7 13
1993-08-19 Fram Reykjavik D 3-377.9 1689 1448 72.44% 15.74% 11.82%+1.48 -4.9 34
1993-08-19 @ IA Akranes D 3-377.9 1448 1689 11.82% 15.74% 72.44%-1.48 +4.9 22
1993-08-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-130.2 1360 1115 72.69% 15.72% 11.59%+1.50 +21.3 18
1993-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-530.2 1115 1360 11.59% 15.72% 72.69%-1.50 -21.3 5
1993-08-20 Keflavik IF L 0-246.1 1388 1261 63.20% 16.22% 20.58%+0.89 -62.3 19
1993-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-046.1 1261 1388 20.58% 16.22% 63.20%-0.89 +62.3 20
1993-08-22 Thor Akureyri W 1-047.8 1168 1381 21.23% 16.24% 62.53%-0.86 +32.7 16
1993-08-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-147.8 1381 1168 62.53% 16.24% 21.23%+0.86 -32.7 18
1993-08-22 KR Reykjavik L 2-443.0 1139 1296 27.18% 16.38% 56.43%-0.57 -22.9 12
1993-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-243.0 1296 1139 56.43% 16.38% 27.18%+0.57 +22.9 19
1993-08-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-141.3 1324 1423 34.36% 16.47% 49.17%-0.27 -19.2 20
1993-08-23 @ Keflavik IF W 1-041.3 1423 1324 49.17% 16.47% 34.36%+0.27 +19.2 27
1993-08-24 Valur Reykjavik W 3-246.3 1453 1326 63.33% 16.22% 20.45%+0.90 +10.9 25
1993-08-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-346.3 1326 1453 20.45% 16.22% 63.33%-0.90 -10.8 19
1993-08-26 IA Akranes L 1-333.7 1094 1684 3.07% 14.00% 82.94%-2.81 -3.1 5
1993-08-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-133.7 1684 1094 82.94% 14.00% 3.07%+2.81 +3.1 37
1993-08-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-133.0 1443 1116 77.15% 15.25% 7.60%+1.93 +7.7 30
1993-08-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-333.0 1116 1443 7.60% 15.25% 77.15%-1.93 -7.7 12
1993-09-03 Fram Reykjavik W 2-048.7 1091 1464 9.66% 15.53% 74.81%-1.69 +74.0 8
1993-09-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-248.7 1464 1091 74.81% 15.53% 9.66%+1.69 -74.0 25
1993-09-04 Valur Reykjavik D 1-157.2 1450 1315 64.10% 16.19% 19.71%+0.94 -5.6 31
1993-09-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-157.2 1315 1450 19.71% 16.19% 64.10%-0.94 +5.6 20
1993-09-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-134.5 1687 1201 82.67% 14.08% 3.24%+2.75 +4.6 40
1993-09-04 @ IA Akranes L 1-434.5 1201 1687 3.24% 14.08% 82.67%-2.75 -4.6 16
1993-09-04 Keflavik IF D 2-259.8 1319 1304 50.23% 16.46% 33.31%+0.32 -1.5 20
1993-09-04 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-259.8 1304 1319 33.31% 16.46% 50.23%-0.32 +1.5 21
1993-09-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-154.7 1348 1108 72.38% 15.75% 11.87%+1.48 -7.9 19
1993-09-04 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-154.7 1108 1348 11.87% 15.75% 72.38%-1.48 +7.9 13
1993-09-11 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-248.3 1196 1165 52.40% 16.44% 31.16%+0.40 -26.0 16
1993-09-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-148.3 1165 1196 31.16% 16.44% 52.40%-0.40 +26.0 11
1993-09-11 IA Akranes L 2-535.9 1116 1692 3.32% 14.12% 82.56%-2.73 -4.1 13
1993-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-235.9 1692 1116 82.56% 14.12% 3.32%+2.73 +4.1 43
1993-09-11 Thor Akureyri W 5-245.1 1306 1340 43.52% 16.50% 39.98%+0.06 +43.6 24
1993-09-11 @ Keflavik IF L 2-545.1 1340 1306 39.98% 16.50% 43.52%-0.06 -43.6 19
1993-09-11 KR Reykjavik D 1-155.4 1320 1317 48.66% 16.48% 34.87%+0.26 -1.6 21
1993-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-155.4 1317 1320 34.87% 16.48% 48.66%-0.26 +1.7 21
1993-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-439.1 1390 1445 40.60% 16.50% 42.90%-0.04 -79.1 25
1993-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-039.1 1445 1390 42.90% 16.50% 40.60%+0.04 +79.1 34
1993-09-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-040.4 1170 1311 29.09% 16.41% 54.49%-0.49 +78.4 19
1993-09-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-340.4 1311 1170 54.49% 16.41% 29.09%+0.49 -78.4 25
1993-09-18 Keflavik IF W 2-039.2 1696 1350 78.03% 15.12% 6.85%+2.03 +8.0 46
1993-09-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-239.2 1350 1696 6.85% 15.12% 78.03%-2.03 -8.1 24
1993-09-18 Valur Reykjavik D 1-155.2 1297 1319 45.24% 16.49% 38.26%+0.13 -0.8 20
1993-09-18 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-155.2 1319 1297 38.26% 16.49% 45.24%-0.13 +0.8 22
1993-09-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-943.2 1191 1112 58.13% 16.35% 25.52%+0.65 -124.8 11
1993-09-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 9-243.2 1112 1191 25.52% 16.35% 58.13%-0.65 +124.8 16
1993-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.7 1319 1524 22.05% 16.27% 61.69%-0.82 -12.2 21
1993-09-19 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-143.7 1524 1319 61.69% 16.27% 22.05%+0.82 +12.2 37
1993-09-25 Thor Akureyri W 4-136.0 1536 1296 72.41% 15.75% 11.84%+1.48 +16.8 40
1993-09-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-436.0 1296 1536 11.84% 15.75% 72.41%-1.48 -16.8 20
1993-09-25 KR Reykjavik L 2-446.6 1233 1307 37.84% 16.49% 45.67%-0.14 -30.4 25
1993-09-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-246.6 1307 1233 45.67% 16.49% 37.84%+0.14 +30.4 24
1993-09-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-039.9 1237 1248 46.72% 16.49% 36.80%+0.18 +20.3 19
1993-09-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-139.9 1248 1237 36.80% 16.49% 46.72%-0.18 -20.3 19
1993-09-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-240.0 1342 1066 74.55% 15.56% 9.89%+1.66 +5.5 27
1993-09-25 @ Keflavik IF L 2-340.0 1066 1342 9.89% 15.56% 74.55%-1.66 -5.5 11
1993-09-25 IA Akranes L 0-239.1 1319 1704 9.12% 15.47% 75.41%-1.74 -10.7 22
1993-09-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-039.1 1704 1319 75.41% 15.47% 9.12%+1.74 +10.7 49

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1993-09-03 9.66% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1091 2 Fram Reykjavik 1464 0
2 1993-06-11 9.69% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1154 2 KR Reykjavik 1527 1
3 1993-08-18 11.06% Fylkir Reykjavik 1105 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1359 1
4 1993-08-11 13.31% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1082 3 KR Reykjavik 1392 2
5 1993-06-10 16.39% @ Fram Reykjavik 1271 4 IA Akranes 1539 2
6 1993-06-07 20.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1220 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1350 0
7 1993-08-20 20.58% Keflavik IF 1261 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1388 0
8 1993-08-22 21.23% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1168 1 Thor Akureyri 1381 0
9 1993-07-23 21.47% Fram Reykjavik 1357 4 @ KR Reykjavik 1474 1
10 1993-05-28 23.35% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1188 2 Valur Reykjavik 1380 1
11 1993-09-18 25.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1112 9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1191 2
12 1993-09-18 29.09% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1170 3 Fram Reykjavik 1311 0
13 1993-06-24 30.01% FH Hafnarfjordur 1353 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1394 1
14 1993-05-27 30.79% Keflavik IF 1212 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1247 1
15 1993-09-11 31.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 1165 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1196 1
16 1993-07-15 31.68% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1405 2 KR Reykjavik 1525 0
17 1993-08-08 34.83% @ Thor Akureyri 1368 1 Fram Reykjavik 1465 0
18 1993-07-29 36.13% KR Reykjavik 1399 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1392 1
19 1993-07-01 36.79% Fylkir Reykjavik 1172 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1161 0
20 1993-05-23 37.75% Fram Reykjavik 1288 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1270 1
21 1993-07-14 38.54% @ Valur Reykjavik 1345 2 Thor Akureyri 1414 1
22 1993-08-09 39.54% @ Keflavik IF 1186 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1249 0
23 1993-06-07 40.69% @ Keflavik IF 1239 2 Fram Reykjavik 1293 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-09-18 124.76 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 1112 25.52% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1191 58.13% 16.35%
2 1993-05-23 94.38 IA Akranes 5 1404 44.42% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1338 39.08% 16.50%
3 1993-08-09 84.54 @ Keflavik IF 4 1186 39.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1249 43.97% 16.50%
4 1993-09-12 79.07 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1445 42.90% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1390 40.60% 16.50%
5 1993-09-18 78.40 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1170 29.09% Fram Reykjavik 0 1311 54.49% 16.41%
6 1993-07-23 75.21 Fram Reykjavik 4 1357 21.47% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1474 62.29% 16.25%
7 1993-09-03 74.03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1091 9.66% Fram Reykjavik 0 1464 74.81% 15.53%
8 1993-07-15 67.48 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1289 57.13% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1219 26.50% 16.37%
9 1993-06-07 63.51 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1247 52.16% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1217 31.39% 16.44%
10 1993-08-18 62.74 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1105 11.06% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1359 73.26% 15.68%
11 1993-08-20 62.31 Keflavik IF 2 1261 20.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1388 63.20% 16.22%
12 1993-07-27 57.44 @ IA Akranes 5 1567 61.61% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1456 22.12% 16.27%
13 1993-06-10 51.63 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1271 16.39% IA Akranes 2 1539 67.57% 16.05%
14 1993-07-15 51.57 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1405 31.68% KR Reykjavik 0 1525 51.87% 16.45%
15 1993-07-01 46.97 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1172 36.79% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1161 46.73% 16.49%
16 1993-06-20 44.12 @ IA Akranes 10 1487 72.98% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1238 11.32% 15.70%
17 1993-09-11 43.63 @ Keflavik IF 5 1306 43.52% Thor Akureyri 2 1340 39.98% 16.50%
18 1993-06-21 42.95 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1310 58.92% Keflavik IF 1 1224 24.75% 16.34%
19 1993-06-20 40.88 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1353 52.26% Fram Reykjavik 1 1322 31.29% 16.44%
20 1993-06-11 37.00 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1154 9.69% KR Reykjavik 1 1527 74.77% 15.53%
21 1993-06-10 35.91 Valur Reykjavik 3 1317 43.14% @ Keflavik IF 1 1260 40.36% 16.50%
22 1993-08-12 34.59 @ IA Akranes 6 1654 73.66% Thor Akureyri 0 1394 10.70% 15.64%
23 1993-06-07 33.20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1220 20.29% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1350 63.50% 16.21%
24 1993-08-11 33.19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1082 13.31% KR Reykjavik 2 1392 70.83% 15.86%
25 1993-06-23 32.98 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1282 59.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1194 24.51% 16.33%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-08-19 77.9 @ IA Akranes 3 1689 72.44% Fram Reykjavik 3 1448 11.82% 15.74%
2 1993-06-20 61.5 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1490 72.13% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1254 12.11% 15.77%
3 1993-09-04 59.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1319 50.23% Keflavik IF 2 1304 33.31% 16.46%
4 1993-06-10 59.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1254 40.29% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1310 43.21% 16.50%
5 1993-07-29 58.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1134 40.94% Keflavik IF 2 1187 42.57% 16.50%
6 1993-06-10 58.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1271 16.39% IA Akranes 2 1539 67.57% 16.05%
7 1993-08-11 58.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1082 13.31% KR Reykjavik 2 1392 70.83% 15.86%
8 1993-09-04 57.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1450 64.10% Valur Reykjavik 1 1315 19.71% 16.19%
9 1993-06-11 56.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1154 9.69% KR Reykjavik 1 1527 74.77% 15.53%
10 1993-06-24 55.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1260 26.11% Thor Akureyri 1 1426 57.52% 16.36%
11 1993-07-22 55.8 @ Thor Akureyri 0 1391 39.09% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1457 44.41% 16.50%
12 1993-09-11 55.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1320 48.66% KR Reykjavik 1 1317 34.87% 16.48%
13 1993-07-01 55.3 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1422 73.66% Keflavik IF 1 1162 10.69% 15.64%
14 1993-09-18 55.2 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1297 45.24% Valur Reykjavik 1 1319 38.26% 16.49%
15 1993-09-04 54.7 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1348 72.38% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1108 11.87% 15.75%
16 1993-08-18 52.5 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1105 11.06% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1359 73.26% 15.68%
17 1993-05-27 51.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1280 53.01% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1244 30.55% 16.43%
18 1993-05-28 51.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1188 23.35% Valur Reykjavik 1 1380 60.35% 16.30%
19 1993-07-23 51.3 Fram Reykjavik 4 1357 21.47% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1474 62.29% 16.25%
20 1993-07-26 51.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1082 15.71% Valur Reykjavik 0 1358 68.28% 16.01%
21 1993-06-24 51.1 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1353 30.01% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1394 53.56% 16.43%
22 1993-05-27 50.9 @ IA Akranes 1 1498 44.64% KR Reykjavik 0 1524 38.86% 16.49%
23 1993-07-29 50.1 KR Reykjavik 2 1399 36.13% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1392 47.39% 16.48%
24 1993-07-14 48.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1345 38.54% Thor Akureyri 1 1414 44.97% 16.49%
25 1993-07-15 48.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1405 31.68% KR Reykjavik 0 1525 51.87% 16.45%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-06-20 30.2 @ IA Akranes 10 1487 72.98% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1238 11.32% 15.70%
2 1993-08-19 30.2 @ Thor Akureyri 5 1360 72.69% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1115 11.59% 15.72%
3 1993-07-15 30.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1289 57.13% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1219 26.50% 16.37%
4 1993-08-12 30.8 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1406 68.84% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1123 15.18% 15.98%
5 1993-06-07 32.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1247 52.16% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1217 31.39% 16.44%
6 1993-06-20 33.0 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1419 71.57% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1191 12.62% 15.81%
7 1993-08-27 33.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1443 77.15% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1116 7.60% 15.25%
8 1993-08-12 33.1 Valur Reykjavik 2 1363 61.07% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1164 22.65% 16.28%
9 1993-06-24 33.7 KR Reykjavik 4 1484 70.27% @ Keflavik IF 1 1182 13.84% 15.90%
10 1993-08-26 33.7 IA Akranes 3 1684 82.94% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1094 3.07% 14.00%
11 1993-07-28 34.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1432 65.46% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1281 18.40% 16.14%
12 1993-06-06 34.3 @ KR Reykjavik 7 1503 71.47% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1277 12.72% 15.82%
13 1993-09-04 34.5 @ IA Akranes 4 1687 82.67% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1201 3.24% 14.08%
14 1993-06-21 34.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1310 58.92% Keflavik IF 1 1224 24.75% 16.34%
15 1993-06-25 35.5 IA Akranes 3 1531 73.32% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1183 11.01% 15.67%
16 1993-08-09 35.9 @ Keflavik IF 4 1186 39.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1249 43.97% 16.50%
17 1993-09-11 35.9 IA Akranes 5 1692 82.56% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1116 3.32% 14.12%
18 1993-06-23 36.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1282 59.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1194 24.51% 16.33%
19 1993-09-25 36.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1536 72.41% Thor Akureyri 1 1296 11.84% 15.75%
20 1993-05-23 36.3 IA Akranes 5 1404 44.42% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1338 39.08% 16.50%
21 1993-07-01 36.8 @ IA Akranes 3 1542 74.72% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1264 9.74% 15.54%
22 1993-06-30 37.1 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1503 64.17% Valur Reykjavik 0 1367 19.65% 16.19%
23 1993-08-12 37.1 @ IA Akranes 6 1654 73.66% Thor Akureyri 0 1394 10.70% 15.64%
24 1993-07-15 37.2 IA Akranes 2 1552 75.26% @ Keflavik IF 1 1170 9.26% 15.48%
25 1993-08-08 37.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1399 76.32% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1089 8.32% 15.36%