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1993 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

49 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 1992.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

11 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

9.51 points above expected

40 points · 30.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

8.48 points below expected

20 points · 28.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 16 1 1 49 62 16 +46 40.02 +8.98
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 12 4 2 40 39 21 +18 30.49 +9.51
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 3 7 27 31 31 0 20.23 +6.77
4 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 38 37 +1 26.69 -1.69
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 37 34 +3 32.12 -8.12
6 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 22 25 24 +1 26.82 -4.82
7 Thor Akureyri 18 5 5 8 20 20 30 -10 28.48 -8.48
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 4 9 19 31 41 -10 18.76 +0.24
9 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 18 6 1 11 19 22 35 -13 16.27 +2.73
10 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 2 13 11 23 59 -36 15.61 -4.61

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1720 49 40.02 +8.98 98.4% 19 32 37 40 43 48 54
FH Hafnarfjordur 1559 40 30.49 +9.51 96.8% 10 22 27 30 34 39 49
Keflavik IF 1353 27 20.23 +6.77 91.4% 4 12 17 20 24 29 39
KR Reykjavik 1343 24 32.12 -8.12 7.5% 12 23 28 32 36 41 49
Valur Reykjavik 1315 22 26.82 -4.82 20.9% 7 18 23 27 30 36 46
Thor Akureyri 1285 20 28.48 -8.48 6.8% 10 20 25 28 32 37 48
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1263 19 18.76 +0.24 56.8% 3 10 15 19 22 27 39
Fylkir Reykjavik 1234 19 16.27 +2.73 74.2% 2 8 13 16 20 25 34
Fram Reykjavik 1208 25 26.69 -1.69 41.5% 5 18 23 27 30 36 46
Vikingur Reykjavik 1066 11 15.61 -4.61 20.5% 1 8 12 15 19 24 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
3.32
2-0-0
3.94
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.52
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.36
 —
1-0-1
3.67
1-1-0
1.16
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
3.60
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
4.34
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
2.00
 —
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
2.42
2-0-0
0.94
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
1.34
1-0-1
1.44
1-0-1
3.02
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.51
0-1-1
4.52
2-0-0
4.97
 —
2-0-0
5.02
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
4.90
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
4.97
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.25
2-0-0
3.25
0-0-2
0.69
 —
0-1-1
1.50
0-0-2
3.21
0-2-0
1.46
1-0-1
1.61
2-0-0
3.03
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
3.56
0-0-2
4.75
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
4.18
 —
1-1-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
4.59
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
2.07
1-1-0
3.00
0-0-2
0.79
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
1.75
 —
1-1-0
1.96
1-0-1
2.17
2-0-0
3.88
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
1.85
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-1
4.34
0-0-2
1.69
0-2-0
4.22
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
3.72
 —
0-1-1
3.03
2-0-0
4.17
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
4.24
0-0-2
1.05
1-0-1
4.06
0-1-1
2.38
1-0-1
3.50
1-1-0
2.64
 —
1-1-0
4.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
1.34
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
2.65
1-0-1
1.10
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
1.68
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +7.9
Allowed 0.67 -7.6
Differential 0.93 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%5.56%5.56%0.56%1.67%2.22%18.89%
15.56%6.67%8.89%4.44%3.89%2.22%31.67%
25.56%8.89%4.44%2.22%2.78%2.22%26.11%
30.56%4.44%2.22%1.11%——8.33%
41.67%3.89%2.78%———8.33%
5+2.22%2.22%2.22%———6.67%
Total18.89%31.67%26.11%8.33%8.33%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.82 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.53
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————11.11%22.22%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%————11.11%
411.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.17 +1.00
SD 1.62 1.54 2.57
CV 0.75 1.32 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total5.56%33.33%27.78%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.06 +0.06
SD 1.75 1.21 2.60
CV 0.83 0.59 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.94 -0.72
SD 1.00 1.51 2.14
CV 0.82 0.78 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—————16.67%
211.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+16.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
Total44.44%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.44 0.89 +2.56
SD 2.23 1.13 2.48
CV 0.65 1.27 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%50.00%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%38.89%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.28 -0.56
SD 1.96 1.49 2.50
CV 1.14 0.65 —
Max 9 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%44.44%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.89 +0.17
SD 1.73 1.13 2.18
CV 0.84 0.60 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.32 2.03
CV 0.74 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
111.11%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—50.00%
2—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%50.00%16.67%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 1.18 1.68 2.12
CV 1.06 1.01 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
1—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%50.00%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.33 +0.06
SD 1.38 0.77 1.59
CV 0.99 0.58 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
1——5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%33.33%
25.56%5.56%—11.11%5.56%11.11%38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%16.67%22.22%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 3.28 -2.00
SD 0.89 2.91 2.81
CV 0.70 0.89 —
Max 3 10 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 40 30.49 +9.51
2 IA Akranes 49 40.02 +8.98
3 Keflavik IF 27 20.23 +6.77
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 19 16.27 +2.73
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 18.76 +0.24

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 20 28.48 -8.48
2 KR Reykjavik 24 32.12 -8.12
3 Valur Reykjavik 22 26.82 -4.82
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 15.61 -4.61
5 Fram Reykjavik 25 26.69 -1.69

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 18 – Aug 22 1 in 42
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Sep 3 – Sep 11 1 in 33
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 21 – Jul 15 1 in 31
4 IA Akranes 8 Jun 20 – Aug 12 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 Sep 3 – Sep 25 1 in 181
2 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 8 – Aug 18 1 in 110
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 6 – Jul 22 1 in 55
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 28 – Jun 7 1 in 21
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jul 28 – Aug 27 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 May 27 – Jul 22 1 in 70
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 7 – Jun 24 1 in 41
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 18 – Aug 22 1 in 10
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Sep 3 – Sep 11 1 in 8
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 5 Jun 24 – Jul 29 1 in 50
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 May 23 – Aug 8 1 in 35
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Sep 3 – Sep 25 1 in 24
4 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 8 – Aug 18 1 in 16
5 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 20 – Sep 25 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes75.09%16.52%5.45%1.96%0.68%0.23%0.06%—0.01%—
FH Hafnarfjordur7.58%22.86%22.98%17.96%13.20%8.25%4.38%2.09%0.60%0.10%
Keflavik IF0.08%0.93%2.27%4.96%8.33%15.02%21.88%20.93%15.92%9.68%
Fram Reykjavik1.81%8.56%13.61%17.07%19.34%17.88%11.15%6.22%3.18%1.18%
KR Reykjavik10.50%29.04%23.37%16.14%10.64%6.08%2.77%1.02%0.35%0.09%
Valur Reykjavik1.63%9.01%13.62%18.01%19.22%17.73%10.96%5.95%2.89%0.98%
Thor Akureyri3.25%12.56%16.85%19.14%18.48%14.31%9.19%4.21%1.44%0.57%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.04%0.35%1.21%2.85%5.73%10.36%18.45%23.62%21.62%15.77%
Fylkir Reykjavik—0.10%0.43%1.21%2.54%5.86%12.05%18.96%27.24%31.61%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.02%0.07%0.21%0.70%1.84%4.28%9.11%17.00%26.75%40.02%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Slight Edge
48.89%15.56%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
193 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
75%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Comfortable
00.320.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.16 * Some Luck: 4.16 to 6.25 * Lucky: 6.25 to 8.33 * Wild Swing: 8.33 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.55 * Off: 1.55 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.74 * A Surprise: 0.74 to 1.19 * Several Surprises: 1.19 to 1.64 * Many Surprises: 1.64 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.40 points
Lucky
05.2113
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.293
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.38%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.81%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.74
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.51
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 99.99% 0.01%
KR Reykjavik 99.56% 0.44%
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.30% 0.70%
Thor Akureyri 97.99% 2.01%
Valur Reykjavik 96.13% 3.87%
Fram Reykjavik 95.64% 4.36%
Keflavik IF 74.40% 25.60%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 62.61% 37.39%
Fylkir Reykjavik 41.15% 58.85%
Vikingur Reykjavik 33.23% 66.77%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1993-05-23 IA Akranes L 0-5 1343 1409 39.1% 16.5% 44.5% -94.3 0
1993-05-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-0 1409 1343 44.5% 16.5% 39.1% +94.3 3
1993-05-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1275 1293 45.8% 16.5% 37.8% -23.1 0
1993-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1293 1275 37.8% 16.5% 45.8% +23.0 3
1993-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1202 1216 46.4% 16.5% 37.1% +19.3 3
1993-05-23 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1216 1202 37.1% 16.5% 46.4% -19.3 0
1993-05-23 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1499 1440 55.9% 16.4% 27.7% +30.0 3
1993-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1440 1499 27.7% 16.4% 55.9% -30.0 0
1993-05-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1357 1313 54.1% 16.4% 29.5% +27.4 3
1993-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1313 1357 29.5% 16.4% 54.1% -27.4 0
1993-05-27 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1316 1410 35.2% 16.5% 48.3% -18.5 3
1993-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1410 1316 48.3% 16.5% 35.2% +18.5 3
1993-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1503 1529 44.7% 16.5% 38.9% +21.3 6
1993-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1529 1503 38.9% 16.5% 44.7% -21.3 3
1993-05-27 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1252 1221 52.3% 16.4% 31.2% -26.0 0
1993-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1221 1252 31.2% 16.4% 52.3% +26.0 6
1993-05-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1285 1249 53.0% 16.4% 30.6% -3.1 1
1993-05-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1249 1285 30.6% 16.4% 53.0% +3.0 1
1993-05-28 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1196 1385 23.7% 16.3% 60.0% +29.6 3
1993-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1385 1196 60.0% 16.3% 23.7% -29.6 3
1993-06-05 IA Akranes L 0-1 1428 1525 34.8% 16.5% 48.7% -19.4 3
1993-06-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1525 1428 48.7% 16.5% 34.8% +19.4 9
1993-06-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 7-2 1508 1282 71.5% 15.8% 12.7% +23.8 6
1993-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-7 1282 1508 12.7% 15.8% 71.5% -23.8 1
1993-06-07 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1252 1226 51.8% 16.4% 31.8% +64.2 4
1993-06-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1226 1252 31.8% 16.4% 51.8% -64.2 3
1993-06-07 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1247 1298 41.1% 16.5% 42.4% +21.6 9
1993-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1298 1247 42.4% 16.5% 41.1% -21.6 3
1993-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1355 1226 63.5% 16.2% 20.3% -33.2 3
1993-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1226 1355 20.3% 16.2% 63.5% +33.2 3
1993-06-09 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1258 1409 28.0% 16.4% 55.6% -15.1 1
1993-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1409 1258 55.6% 16.4% 28.0% +15.1 6
1993-06-10 IA Akranes W 4-2 1276 1544 16.4% 16.1% 67.6% +51.6 6
1993-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-4 1544 1276 67.6% 16.1% 16.4% -51.6 9
1993-06-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1259 1316 40.2% 16.5% 43.3% +0.3 4
1993-06-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1316 1259 43.3% 16.5% 40.2% -0.3 5
1993-06-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1269 1322 40.8% 16.5% 42.8% -36.2 9
1993-06-10 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1322 1269 42.8% 16.5% 40.8% +36.2 6
1993-06-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1162 1532 9.8% 15.6% 74.6% +36.9 6
1993-06-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1532 1162 74.6% 15.6% 9.8% -36.9 6
1993-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik W 10-1 1492 1243 73.0% 15.7% 11.3% +44.1 12
1993-06-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-10 1243 1492 11.3% 15.7% 73.0% -44.1 1
1993-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1495 1259 72.1% 15.8% 12.1% -5.8 7
1993-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1259 1495 12.1% 15.8% 72.1% +5.8 5
1993-06-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1424 1199 71.4% 15.8% 12.8% +7.8 9
1993-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1199 1424 12.8% 15.8% 71.4% -7.8 6
1993-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1358 1328 52.3% 16.4% 31.3% +40.8 9
1993-06-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1328 1358 31.3% 16.4% 52.3% -40.8 6
1993-06-21 Keflavik IF W 5-1 1316 1232 58.7% 16.3% 25.0% +43.3 8
1993-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1232 1316 25.0% 16.3% 58.7% -43.3 9
1993-06-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1287 1199 59.2% 16.3% 24.5% +33.0 9
1993-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1199 1287 24.5% 16.3% 59.2% -33.0 1
1993-06-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1265 1432 26.1% 16.4% 57.5% +3.9 6
1993-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1432 1265 57.5% 16.4% 26.1% -3.9 10
1993-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1189 1489 14.0% 15.9% 70.1% -19.7 9
1993-06-24 @ Keflavik IF W 4-1 1489 1189 70.1% 15.9% 14.0% +19.7 10
1993-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1399 1359 53.5% 16.4% 30.1% -26.5 9
1993-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1359 1399 30.1% 16.4% 53.5% +26.5 11
1993-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-3 1191 1536 11.1% 15.7% 73.2% -11.2 6
1993-06-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1536 1191 73.2% 15.7% 11.1% +11.2 15
1993-06-30 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1509 1373 64.1% 16.2% 19.7% +22.1 13
1993-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1373 1509 19.7% 16.2% 64.1% -22.1 9
1993-07-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1386 1320 56.6% 16.4% 27.0% +25.4 14
1993-07-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1320 1386 27.0% 16.4% 56.6% -25.4 9
1993-07-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1548 1269 74.7% 15.5% 9.7% +9.9 18
1993-07-01 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1269 1548 9.7% 15.5% 74.7% -9.8 6
1993-07-01 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1428 1169 73.6% 15.7% 10.8% -8.2 11
1993-07-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1169 1428 10.8% 15.7% 73.6% +8.2 10
1993-07-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1166 1180 46.4% 16.5% 37.1% -46.7 1
1993-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1180 1166 37.1% 16.5% 46.4% +46.7 9
1993-07-14 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1351 1420 38.6% 16.5% 44.9% +22.7 12
1993-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1420 1351 44.9% 16.5% 38.6% -22.7 11
1993-07-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1411 1531 31.8% 16.4% 51.8% +51.5 17
1993-07-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1531 1411 51.8% 16.4% 31.8% -51.5 13
1993-07-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-0 1295 1226 56.9% 16.4% 26.7% +67.9 12
1993-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-5 1226 1295 26.7% 16.4% 56.9% -67.9 9
1993-07-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1259 1119 64.5% 16.2% 19.3% +10.3 9
1993-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1119 1259 19.3% 16.2% 64.5% -10.3 1
1993-07-15 IA Akranes L 1-2 1178 1557 9.3% 15.5% 75.2% -5.5 10
1993-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1557 1178 75.2% 15.5% 9.3% +5.5 21
1993-07-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1158 1269 32.9% 16.5% 50.7% -17.4 9
1993-07-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1269 1158 50.7% 16.5% 32.9% +17.4 12
1993-07-22 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1563 1373 68.8% 16.0% 15.2% +9.2 24
1993-07-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1373 1563 15.2% 16.0% 68.8% -9.2 12
1993-07-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1397 1463 39.0% 16.5% 44.5% +0.7 12
1993-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1463 1397 44.5% 16.5% 39.0% -0.7 18
1993-07-22 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1109 1172 39.4% 16.5% 44.1% -21.5 1
1993-07-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1172 1109 44.1% 16.5% 39.4% +21.5 13
1993-07-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1479 1362 62.3% 16.2% 21.5% -75.2 13
1993-07-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1362 1479 21.5% 16.2% 62.3% +75.2 15
1993-07-26 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1088 1364 15.7% 16.0% 68.3% +7.6 2
1993-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1364 1088 68.3% 16.0% 15.7% -7.6 13
1993-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-0 1572 1462 61.6% 16.3% 22.2% +57.6 27
1993-07-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 1462 1572 22.2% 16.3% 61.6% -57.6 18
1993-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1438 1287 65.5% 16.1% 18.4% +32.8 18
1993-07-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-5 1287 1438 18.4% 16.1% 65.5% -32.8 12
1993-07-29 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1141 1194 40.9% 16.5% 42.6% +0.2 10
1993-07-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1194 1141 42.6% 16.5% 40.9% -0.2 14
1993-07-29 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1398 1404 47.4% 16.5% 36.1% -23.8 12
1993-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1404 1398 36.1% 16.5% 47.4% +23.8 16
1993-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1404 1095 76.3% 15.4% 8.3% +7.5 21
1993-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1095 1404 8.3% 15.4% 76.3% -7.5 2
1993-08-08 IA Akranes L 1-4 1428 1630 22.4% 16.3% 61.4% -30.4 16
1993-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1630 1428 61.4% 16.3% 22.4% +30.3 30
1993-08-08 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1374 1470 34.8% 16.5% 48.8% +25.9 15
1993-08-08 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1470 1374 48.8% 16.5% 34.8% -25.9 18
1993-08-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1194 1254 39.8% 16.5% 43.8% +84.2 17
1993-08-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-4 1254 1194 43.8% 16.5% 39.8% -84.2 12
1993-08-09 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-2 1356 1141 70.7% 15.9% 13.4% +12.0 16
1993-08-09 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1141 1356 13.4% 15.9% 70.7% -12.0 10
1993-08-11 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1088 1398 13.3% 15.9% 70.8% +33.2 5
1993-08-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1398 1088 70.8% 15.9% 13.3% -33.2 16
1993-08-12 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1445 1278 66.9% 16.1% 17.0% +9.7 21
1993-08-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1278 1445 17.0% 16.1% 66.9% -9.7 17
1993-08-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1129 1412 15.2% 16.0% 68.8% -17.4 10
1993-08-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1412 1129 68.8% 16.0% 15.2% +17.4 24
1993-08-12 Thor Akureyri W 6-0 1660 1400 73.7% 15.6% 10.7% +34.6 33
1993-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-6 1400 1660 10.7% 15.6% 73.7% -34.6 15
1993-08-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1170 1368 22.7% 16.3% 61.1% -25.1 12
1993-08-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1368 1170 61.1% 16.3% 22.7% +25.1 19
1993-08-18 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1364 1112 73.2% 15.7% 11.1% -62.7 16
1993-08-18 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1112 1364 11.1% 15.7% 73.2% +62.7 13
1993-08-19 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1695 1454 72.4% 15.8% 11.8% -4.9 34
1993-08-19 @ IA Akranes D 3-3 1454 1695 11.8% 15.8% 72.4% +4.9 22
1993-08-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-1 1365 1121 72.7% 15.7% 11.6% +21.3 18
1993-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-5 1121 1365 11.6% 15.7% 72.7% -21.3 5
1993-08-20 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1394 1268 63.1% 16.2% 20.7% -62.2 19
1993-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1268 1394 20.7% 16.2% 63.1% +62.2 20
1993-08-22 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1174 1386 21.3% 16.2% 62.4% +32.6 16
1993-08-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1386 1174 62.4% 16.2% 21.3% -32.6 18
1993-08-22 KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1145 1302 27.2% 16.4% 56.4% -22.9 12
1993-08-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1302 1145 56.4% 16.4% 27.2% +22.9 19
1993-08-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1330 1429 34.4% 16.5% 49.1% -19.2 20
1993-08-23 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1429 1330 49.1% 16.5% 34.4% +19.2 27
1993-08-24 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1459 1331 63.3% 16.2% 20.4% +10.8 25
1993-08-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1331 1459 20.4% 16.2% 63.3% -10.8 19
1993-08-26 IA Akranes L 1-3 1099 1690 3.1% 14.0% 82.9% -3.1 5
1993-08-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1690 1099 82.9% 14.0% 3.1% +3.1 37
1993-08-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1449 1122 77.2% 15.2% 7.6% +7.7 30
1993-08-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1122 1449 7.6% 15.2% 77.2% -7.7 12
1993-09-03 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1096 1470 9.7% 15.5% 74.8% +74.0 8
1993-09-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1470 1096 74.8% 15.5% 9.7% -74.0 25
1993-09-04 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1456 1320 64.1% 16.2% 19.7% -5.6 31
1993-09-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1320 1456 19.7% 16.2% 64.1% +5.6 20
1993-09-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1693 1207 82.7% 14.1% 3.3% +4.7 40
1993-09-04 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1207 1693 3.3% 14.1% 82.7% -4.7 16
1993-09-04 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1325 1311 50.1% 16.5% 33.4% -1.5 20
1993-09-04 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1311 1325 33.4% 16.5% 50.1% +1.5 21
1993-09-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1354 1114 72.4% 15.8% 11.9% -7.9 19
1993-09-04 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1114 1354 11.9% 15.8% 72.4% +7.9 13
1993-09-11 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1202 1170 52.5% 16.4% 31.1% -26.1 16
1993-09-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1170 1202 31.1% 16.4% 52.5% +26.1 11
1993-09-11 IA Akranes L 2-5 1122 1697 3.3% 14.1% 82.6% -4.1 13
1993-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-2 1697 1122 82.6% 14.1% 3.3% +4.1 43
1993-09-11 Thor Akureyri W 5-2 1313 1346 43.6% 16.5% 39.9% +43.5 24
1993-09-11 @ Keflavik IF L 2-5 1346 1313 39.9% 16.5% 43.6% -43.5 19
1993-09-11 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1326 1323 48.7% 16.5% 34.8% -1.6 21
1993-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1323 1326 34.8% 16.5% 48.7% +1.6 21
1993-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1396 1451 40.6% 16.5% 42.9% -79.0 25
1993-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1451 1396 42.9% 16.5% 40.6% +79.0 34
1993-09-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1176 1317 29.1% 16.4% 54.4% +78.3 19
1993-09-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1317 1176 54.4% 16.4% 29.1% -78.3 25
1993-09-18 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1702 1356 78.0% 15.1% 6.9% +8.1 46
1993-09-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1356 1702 6.9% 15.1% 78.0% -8.1 24
1993-09-18 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1302 1324 45.2% 16.5% 38.3% -0.8 20
1993-09-18 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1324 1302 38.3% 16.5% 45.2% +0.8 22
1993-09-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-9 1196 1118 58.1% 16.4% 25.5% -124.7 11
1993-09-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 9-2 1118 1196 25.5% 16.4% 58.1% +124.7 16
1993-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1325 1530 22.0% 16.3% 61.7% -12.2 21
1993-09-19 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1530 1325 61.7% 16.3% 22.0% +12.2 37
1993-09-25 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1542 1301 72.4% 15.8% 11.8% +16.8 40
1993-09-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1301 1542 11.8% 15.8% 72.4% -16.8 20
1993-09-25 KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1239 1313 37.9% 16.5% 45.6% -30.4 25
1993-09-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1313 1239 45.6% 16.5% 37.9% +30.4 24
1993-09-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1243 1255 46.7% 16.5% 36.9% +20.4 19
1993-09-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1255 1243 36.9% 16.5% 46.7% -20.4 19
1993-09-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1348 1072 74.6% 15.6% 9.9% +5.5 27
1993-09-25 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1072 1348 9.9% 15.6% 74.6% -5.5 11
1993-09-25 IA Akranes L 0-2 1325 1710 9.1% 15.5% 75.4% -10.7 22
1993-09-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1710 1325 75.4% 15.5% 9.1% +10.7 49

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1993-09-03 9.65% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1096 2 Fram Reykjavik 1470 0
2 1993-06-11 9.82% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1162 2 KR Reykjavik 1532 1
3 1993-08-18 11.11% Fylkir Reykjavik 1112 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1364 1
4 1993-08-11 13.31% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1088 3 KR Reykjavik 1398 2
5 1993-06-10 16.40% @ Fram Reykjavik 1276 4 IA Akranes 1544 2
6 1993-06-07 20.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1226 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1355 0
7 1993-08-20 20.67% Keflavik IF 1268 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1394 0
8 1993-08-22 21.32% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1174 1 Thor Akureyri 1386 0
9 1993-07-23 21.50% Fram Reykjavik 1362 4 @ KR Reykjavik 1479 1
10 1993-05-28 23.70% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1196 2 Valur Reykjavik 1385 1
11 1993-09-18 25.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1118 9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1196 2
12 1993-09-18 29.15% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1176 3 Fram Reykjavik 1317 0
13 1993-06-24 30.09% FH Hafnarfjordur 1359 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1399 1
14 1993-09-11 31.07% Vikingur Reykjavik 1170 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1202 1
15 1993-05-27 31.21% Keflavik IF 1221 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1252 1
16 1993-07-15 31.76% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1411 2 KR Reykjavik 1531 0
17 1993-08-08 34.78% @ Thor Akureyri 1374 1 Fram Reykjavik 1470 0
18 1993-07-29 36.15% KR Reykjavik 1404 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1398 1
19 1993-07-01 37.08% Fylkir Reykjavik 1180 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1166 0
20 1993-05-23 37.76% Fram Reykjavik 1293 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1275 1
21 1993-07-14 38.57% @ Valur Reykjavik 1351 2 Thor Akureyri 1420 1
22 1993-08-09 39.76% @ Keflavik IF 1194 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1254 0
23 1993-06-07 41.14% @ Keflavik IF 1247 2 Fram Reykjavik 1298 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-09-18 124.73 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 1118 25.54% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1196 58.11% 16.35%
2 1993-05-23 94.33 IA Akranes 5 1409 44.45% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1343 39.06% 16.50%
3 1993-08-09 84.18 @ Keflavik IF 4 1194 39.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1254 43.75% 16.50%
4 1993-09-12 79.03 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1451 42.92% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1396 40.58% 16.50%
5 1993-09-18 78.32 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1176 29.15% Fram Reykjavik 0 1317 54.43% 16.42%
6 1993-07-23 75.17 Fram Reykjavik 4 1362 21.50% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1479 62.25% 16.25%
7 1993-09-03 74.05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1096 9.65% Fram Reykjavik 0 1470 74.82% 15.53%
8 1993-07-15 67.90 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1295 56.94% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1226 26.68% 16.37%
9 1993-06-07 64.21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1252 51.76% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1226 31.79% 16.45%
10 1993-08-18 62.70 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1112 11.11% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1364 73.21% 15.68%
11 1993-08-20 62.21 Keflavik IF 2 1268 20.67% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1394 63.10% 16.22%
12 1993-07-27 57.57 @ IA Akranes 5 1572 61.55% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1462 22.18% 16.27%
13 1993-06-10 51.62 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1276 16.40% IA Akranes 2 1544 67.56% 16.05%
14 1993-07-15 51.50 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1411 31.76% KR Reykjavik 0 1531 51.79% 16.45%
15 1993-07-01 46.71 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1180 37.08% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1166 46.43% 16.49%
16 1993-06-20 44.11 @ IA Akranes 10 1492 72.98% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1243 11.32% 15.70%
17 1993-09-11 43.51 @ Keflavik IF 5 1313 43.65% Thor Akureyri 2 1346 39.85% 16.50%
18 1993-06-21 43.27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1316 58.70% Keflavik IF 1 1232 24.96% 16.34%
19 1993-06-20 40.84 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1358 52.30% Fram Reykjavik 1 1328 31.26% 16.44%
20 1993-06-11 36.92 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1162 9.82% KR Reykjavik 1 1532 74.63% 15.55%
21 1993-06-10 36.20 Valur Reykjavik 3 1322 42.75% @ Keflavik IF 1 1269 40.75% 16.50%
22 1993-08-12 34.56 @ IA Akranes 6 1660 73.67% Thor Akureyri 0 1400 10.69% 15.64%
23 1993-06-07 33.20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1226 20.29% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1355 63.50% 16.21%
24 1993-08-11 33.19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1088 13.31% KR Reykjavik 2 1398 70.83% 15.86%
25 1993-06-23 32.96 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1287 59.18% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1199 24.49% 16.33%