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1992 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

40 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 1984.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

13 pts

Breidablik · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

11.45 points above expected

40 points · 28.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

9.85 points below expected

13 points · 22.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 12 4 2 40 40 19 +21 28.55 +11.45
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 41 17 +24 33.19 +3.81
3 Thor Akureyri 18 10 5 3 35 30 14 +16 25.53 +9.47
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 9 4 5 31 33 27 +6 29.48 +1.52
5 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 25 27 -2 31.51 -6.51
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 6 7 21 25 29 -4 21.87 -0.87
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 4 9 19 25 33 -8 21.28 -2.28
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 1 12 16 23 44 -21 18.08 -2.08
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 14 31 -17 19.74 -4.74
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 3 4 11 13 18 33 -15 22.85 -9.85

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 40 28.55 +11.45
2 Thor Akureyri 35 25.53 +9.47
3 KR Reykjavik 37 33.19 +3.81
4 Valur Reykjavik 31 29.48 +1.52
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 21 21.87 -0.87

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 13 22.85 -9.85
2 Fram Reykjavik 25 31.51 -6.51
3 Breidablik 15 19.74 -4.74
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 21.28 -2.28
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 16 18.08 -2.08

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 4 Jun 8 – Jun 23 1 in 87
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Aug 29 – Sep 13 1 in 62
3 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 30 – Aug 29 1 in 29
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 16 – Jun 28 1 in 15
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 19 – Jul 2 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 15 – Aug 17 1 in 199
2 KA Akureyri 5 Jun 19 – Jul 10 1 in 183
3 Breidablik 6 May 24 – Jun 25 1 in 115
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 16 – Aug 25 1 in 22
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 16 – Sep 5 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 10 May 23 – Jul 16 1 in 420
2 Thor Akureyri 7 May 23 – Jun 28 1 in 67
3 Valur Reykjavik 7 Jun 19 – Jul 25 1 in 44
4 KR Reykjavik 7 Jun 9 – Jul 13 1 in 11
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 12 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 8 May 28 – Jul 10 1 in 119
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 14 – Jul 17 1 in 19
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 15 – Aug 17 1 in 17
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 27 – Jun 19 1 in 12
5 Breidablik 6 May 24 – Jun 25 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1521 40 +27 10 9.8 +0.2
KR Reykjavik 1698 37 +207 13 9.1 +3.9
Thor Akureyri 1567 35 +100 10 8.1 +1.9
Valur Reykjavik 1399 31 -143 9 9.7 -0.7
Fram Reykjavik 1248 25 -104 6 8.5 -2.5
FH Hafnarfjordur 1363 21 +15 4 4.3 -0.3
Vikingur Reykjavik 1291 19 -87 3 5.6 -2.6
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1206 16 +66 9 4.0 +5.0
Breidablik 1195 15 -46 6 5.9 +0.1
KA Akureyri 1172 13 -36 3 4.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KR TA VR VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
2.75
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
2.02
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.18
1-0-1
1.56
0-1-1
2.28
0-0-2
1.50
0-1-1
2.48
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
2.82
 —
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
3.41
0-2-0
2.80
0-1-1
1.64
0-1-1
2.07
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.50
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.53
 —
0-0-2
3.51
1-0-1
4.34
2-0-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
3.97
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
3.64
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
2.07
 —
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
3.43
1-1-0
1.99
1-1-0
2.88
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.86
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.59
 —
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.44
0-0-2
2.09
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
2.89
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
3.40
0-2-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
2.92
 —
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.52
0-0-2
1.70
2-0-0
2.43
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.03
1-1-0
3.95
1-0-1
2.99
0-1-1
3.59
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
3.45
 —
2-0-0
2.87
1-1-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.92
Thor Akureyri
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
1.62
0-1-1
2.70
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.06
0-0-2
2.71
 —
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
3.08
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.09
1-1-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.89
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.83
 —
0-0-2
3.62
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.09
0-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
1.72
2-0-0
2.68
0-0-2
3.15
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
2.49
2-0-0
1.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.5
Allowed 0.74 -9.5
Differential 0.95 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.89%5.56%4.44%1.11%0.56%26.11%
18.89%4.44%6.67%5.56%1.67%2.22%29.44%
25.56%6.67%8.89%1.67%1.67%—24.44%
34.44%5.56%1.67%1.11%——12.78%
41.11%1.67%1.67%———4.44%
5+0.56%2.22%————2.78%
Total26.11%29.44%24.44%12.78%4.44%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.42 2.17
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.72 -0.94
SD 0.81 1.49 1.59
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
1——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.61 -0.22
SD 1.20 1.29 1.86
CV 0.86 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%—————11.11%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.33 1.10 1.91
CV 0.96 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
122.22%5.56%———5.56%33.33%
211.11%—16.67%———27.78%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%22.22%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.06 +1.17
SD 1.63 1.26 2.07
CV 0.73 1.19 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
1——11.11%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.44 -1.17
SD 1.23 1.79 2.20
CV 0.96 0.73 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
111.11%5.56%22.22%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.83 -0.83
SD 0.84 1.15 1.47
CV 0.84 0.63 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
316.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.94 +1.33
SD 2.02 1.06 2.33
CV 0.89 1.12 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
116.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
216.67%—11.11%———27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.78 +0.89
SD 1.24 0.94 1.49
CV 0.74 1.21 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.50 +0.33
SD 1.58 2.20 3.01
CV 0.86 1.47 —
Max 5 9 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.83 -0.44
SD 1.50 0.99 2.04
CV 1.08 0.54 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1698 37 33.19 +3.81 79.0% 14 22 30 34 37 41 44
Thor Akureyri 1567 35 25.53 +9.47 99.0% 15 17 22 25 29 33 36
IA Akranes 1521 40 28.55 +11.45 99.0% 15 21 25 29 31 37 41
Valur Reykjavik 1399 31 29.48 +1.52 67.0% 17 20 26 29 32 37 42
FH Hafnarfjordur 1363 21 21.87 -0.87 44.0% 9 14 18 22 25 31 35
Vikingur Reykjavik 1291 19 21.28 -2.28 34.0% 9 13 18 21 25 29 33
Fram Reykjavik 1248 25 31.51 -6.51 11.0% 19 23 28 31 35 40 45
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1206 16 18.08 -2.08 41.0% 8 11 15 18 21 26 32
Breidablik 1195 15 19.74 -4.74 22.0% 9 11 16 20 23 28 34
KA Akureyri 1172 13 22.85 -9.85 3.0% 10 15 19 23 26 31 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
Slight Edge
44.44%20.00%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
IA Akranes, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.06 * Some Luck: 4.06 to 6.09 * Lucky: 6.09 to 8.12 * Wild Swing: 8.12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 1.99 * Off: 1.99 to 2.66 * Way Off: 2.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.9 * A Surprise: 0.9 to 1.44 * Several Surprises: 1.44 to 1.98 * Many Surprises: 1.98 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.40 points
Lucky
05.0813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.664
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 178.83
1.72
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Few
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.67
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.07
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.69
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.58
Overconfident
0.4501721.001.54983
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.131
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes10.00%16.00%17.00%23.00%12.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%
KR Reykjavik42.00%24.00%17.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%——1.00%
Thor Akureyri4.00%11.00%12.00%11.00%20.00%15.00%9.00%6.00%9.00%3.00%
Valur Reykjavik13.00%22.00%15.00%18.00%18.00%4.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%—
Fram Reykjavik28.00%15.00%21.00%18.00%8.00%1.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%—
FH Hafnarfjordur—4.00%3.00%7.00%10.00%22.00%18.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—3.00%2.00%7.00%11.00%13.00%13.00%21.00%16.00%14.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—2.00%2.00%—3.00%3.00%9.00%18.00%26.00%37.00%
Breidablik—2.00%3.00%2.00%9.00%5.00%18.00%14.00%23.00%24.00%
KA Akureyri3.00%1.00%8.00%7.00%5.00%21.00%14.00%22.00%11.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
KR Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
Valur Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
IA Akranes 97.00% 3.00%
Thor Akureyri 88.00% 12.00%
KA Akureyri 81.00% 19.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 78.00% 22.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 70.00% 30.00%
Breidablik 53.00% 47.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 37.00% 63.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1992-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-249.6 1376 1403 39.97% 21.21% 38.82%+0.02 -22.2 0
1992-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-149.6 1403 1376 38.82% 21.21% 39.97%-0.02 +22.2 3
1992-05-23 IA Akranes D 2-260.7 1428 1244 64.30% 20.33% 15.37%+1.08 -5.0 1
1992-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-260.7 1244 1428 15.37% 20.33% 64.30%-1.08 +5.0 1
1992-05-23 Fram Reykjavik W 1-049.0 1262 1445 20.74% 20.76% 58.49%-0.77 +32.9 3
1992-05-23 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-149.0 1445 1262 58.49% 20.76% 20.74%+0.77 -33.0 0
1992-05-24 Breidablik W 2-147.3 1364 1365 43.63% 21.19% 35.18%+0.15 +20.1 3
1992-05-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.3 1365 1364 35.18% 21.19% 43.63%-0.15 -20.1 0
1992-05-24 KA Akureyri L 0-244.0 1401 1371 47.80% 21.14% 31.07%+0.31 -51.6 0
1992-05-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-044.0 1371 1401 31.07% 21.14% 47.80%-0.31 +51.6 3
1992-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-249.7 1353 1350 44.27% 21.19% 34.54%+0.17 -24.2 0
1992-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-149.7 1350 1353 34.54% 21.19% 44.27%-0.17 +24.2 3
1992-05-27 IA Akranes D 1-155.4 1425 1248 63.62% 20.40% 15.98%+1.04 -6.4 4
1992-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-155.4 1248 1425 15.98% 20.40% 63.62%-1.04 +6.4 2
1992-05-28 Thor Akureyri L 0-145.9 1345 1295 50.37% 21.08% 28.55%+0.41 -28.7 0
1992-05-28 @ Breidablik W 1-045.9 1295 1345 28.55% 21.08% 50.37%-0.41 +28.7 6
1992-05-28 KR Reykjavik W 3-147.4 1412 1423 42.30% 21.20% 36.50%+0.10 +35.8 3
1992-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-347.4 1423 1412 36.50% 21.20% 42.30%-0.10 -35.8 1
1992-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-366.8 1423 1384 48.93% 21.11% 29.96%+0.35 -1.5 4
1992-05-28 @ KA Akureyri D 3-366.8 1384 1423 29.96% 21.11% 48.93%-0.35 +1.5 4
1992-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-251.9 1386 1329 51.15% 21.06% 27.79%+0.44 -27.4 4
1992-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-151.9 1329 1386 27.79% 21.06% 51.15%-0.44 +27.4 3
1992-06-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-046.3 1255 1448 19.81% 20.70% 59.49%-0.82 +63.1 5
1992-06-08 @ IA Akranes L 0-246.3 1448 1255 59.49% 20.70% 19.81%+0.82 -63.1 3
1992-06-08 KA Akureyri D 2-261.5 1324 1421 30.30% 21.12% 48.58%-0.34 +1.7 7
1992-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-261.5 1421 1324 48.58% 21.12% 30.30%+0.34 -1.7 5
1992-06-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-150.3 1374 1418 37.46% 21.21% 41.33%-0.07 +22.8 6
1992-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-250.3 1418 1374 41.33% 21.21% 37.46%+0.07 -22.8 4
1992-06-09 Breidablik W 1-039.3 1387 1316 52.89% 21.01% 26.11%+0.51 +16.7 4
1992-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-139.3 1316 1387 26.11% 21.01% 52.89%-0.51 -16.7 0
1992-06-13 KR Reykjavik D 1-157.8 1420 1404 45.93% 21.17% 32.90%+0.24 -1.6 6
1992-06-13 @ KA Akureyri D 1-157.8 1404 1420 32.90% 21.17% 45.93%-0.24 +1.6 5
1992-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-251.8 1397 1358 48.89% 21.12% 29.99%+0.35 -26.3 6
1992-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-151.8 1358 1397 29.99% 21.12% 48.89%-0.35 +26.3 7
1992-06-15 IA Akranes L 0-143.0 1300 1318 41.19% 21.21% 37.60%+0.06 -24.2 0
1992-06-15 @ Breidablik W 1-043.0 1318 1300 37.60% 21.21% 41.19%-0.06 +24.2 8
1992-06-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-145.6 1357 1325 47.98% 21.13% 30.89%+0.31 -27.5 3
1992-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-045.6 1325 1357 30.89% 21.13% 47.98%-0.31 +27.5 10
1992-06-16 Fram Reykjavik L 1-446.3 1396 1385 45.19% 21.18% 33.64%+0.21 -60.2 4
1992-06-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-146.3 1385 1396 33.64% 21.18% 45.19%-0.21 +60.2 6
1992-06-19 Valur Reykjavik D 0-051.8 1385 1335 50.26% 21.08% 28.65%+0.40 -3.0 8
1992-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-051.8 1335 1385 28.65% 21.08% 50.26%-0.40 +3.1 5
1992-06-19 KA Akureyri W 1-046.1 1342 1418 33.16% 21.17% 45.67%-0.23 +26.3 11
1992-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-146.1 1418 1342 45.67% 21.17% 33.16%+0.23 -26.3 6
1992-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-034.5 1405 1329 53.53% 20.99% 25.49%+0.54 +44.8 8
1992-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-334.5 1329 1405 25.49% 20.99% 53.53%-0.54 -44.8 3
1992-06-20 Breidablik W 3-031.4 1445 1275 63.06% 20.44% 16.49%+1.01 +30.6 9
1992-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-331.4 1275 1445 16.49% 20.44% 63.06%-1.01 -30.6 0
1992-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-038.0 1353 1370 41.29% 21.21% 37.51%+0.07 +61.4 13
1992-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-338.0 1370 1353 37.51% 21.21% 41.29%-0.07 -61.4 6
1992-06-23 IA Akranes L 0-140.5 1284 1369 32.08% 21.15% 46.77%-0.27 -19.8 3
1992-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-040.5 1369 1284 46.77% 21.15% 32.08%+0.27 +19.8 14
1992-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 0-236.9 1309 1450 25.15% 20.97% 53.88%-0.55 -30.5 6
1992-06-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-036.9 1450 1309 53.88% 20.97% 25.15%+0.55 +30.5 11
1992-06-25 Thor Akureyri D 0-053.1 1382 1414 39.16% 21.21% 39.63%-0.01 +0.1 9
1992-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-053.1 1414 1382 39.63% 21.21% 39.16%+0.01 -0.1 14
1992-06-25 Fram Reykjavik L 1-249.5 1392 1476 32.07% 21.15% 46.78%-0.27 -18.6 6
1992-06-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-149.5 1476 1392 46.78% 21.15% 32.07%+0.27 +18.6 12
1992-06-25 Breidablik W 2-034.5 1338 1245 55.49% 20.91% 23.60%+0.62 +28.9 8
1992-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-234.5 1245 1338 23.60% 20.91% 55.49%-0.62 -28.9 0
1992-06-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-260.5 1388 1278 57.26% 20.83% 21.91%+0.71 -3.5 15
1992-06-27 @ IA Akranes D 2-260.5 1278 1388 21.91% 20.83% 57.26%-0.71 +3.5 7
1992-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-138.0 1495 1265 67.79% 19.94% 12.27%+1.31 +13.9 15
1992-06-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-338.0 1265 1495 12.27% 19.94% 67.79%-1.31 -13.9 3
1992-06-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-156.9 1414 1367 49.95% 21.09% 28.96%+0.39 -2.6 15
1992-06-28 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-156.9 1367 1414 28.96% 21.09% 49.95%-0.39 +2.6 9
1992-06-29 KA Akureyri W 2-152.0 1216 1373 23.42% 20.90% 55.68%-0.63 +29.6 3
1992-06-29 @ Breidablik L 1-252.0 1373 1216 55.68% 20.90% 23.42%+0.63 -29.6 6
1992-06-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-141.5 1481 1382 56.11% 20.88% 23.01%+0.65 +34.6 14
1992-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-441.5 1382 1481 23.01% 20.88% 56.11%-0.65 -34.6 9
1992-07-01 Fram Reykjavik D 2-262.5 1282 1508 16.92% 20.48% 62.60%-0.98 +4.6 8
1992-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-262.5 1508 1282 62.60% 20.48% 16.92%+0.98 -4.6 16
1992-07-02 IA Akranes L 0-437.5 1347 1385 38.41% 21.21% 40.38%-0.03 -81.8 9
1992-07-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-037.5 1385 1347 40.38% 21.21% 38.41%+0.03 +81.8 18
1992-07-02 Breidablik D 0-050.0 1251 1246 44.46% 21.18% 34.35%+0.18 -1.4 4
1992-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-050.0 1246 1251 34.35% 21.18% 44.46%-0.18 +1.4 4
1992-07-02 KR Reykjavik L 0-145.7 1411 1515 29.56% 21.11% 49.34%-0.37 -18.5 15
1992-07-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-045.7 1515 1411 49.34% 21.11% 29.56%+0.37 +18.5 17
1992-07-02 KA Akureyri W 4-035.2 1370 1344 47.32% 21.15% 31.53%+0.29 +69.8 12
1992-07-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-435.2 1344 1370 31.53% 21.15% 47.32%-0.29 -69.8 6
1992-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-346.6 1274 1249 47.06% 21.15% 31.79%+0.28 -44.1 6
1992-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 3-146.6 1249 1274 31.79% 21.15% 47.06%-0.28 +44.1 7
1992-07-11 Thor Akureyri W 1-042.4 1467 1393 53.23% 21.00% 25.77%+0.53 +16.5 21
1992-07-11 @ IA Akranes L 0-142.4 1393 1467 25.77% 21.00% 53.23%-0.53 -16.5 15
1992-07-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-050.2 1247 1287 38.18% 21.21% 40.61%-0.04 +0.3 5
1992-07-12 @ Breidablik D 0-050.2 1287 1247 40.61% 21.21% 38.18%+0.04 -0.3 9
1992-07-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-035.7 1504 1265 68.39% 19.86% 11.75%+1.35 +8.1 19
1992-07-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-135.7 1265 1504 11.75% 19.86% 68.39%-1.35 -8.2 9
1992-07-13 Valur Reykjavik D 0-058.7 1534 1440 55.56% 20.91% 23.54%+0.63 -4.7 18
1992-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-058.7 1440 1534 23.54% 20.91% 55.56%-0.63 +4.6 13
1992-07-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-250.5 1512 1376 59.90% 20.68% 19.42%+0.84 -63.6 19
1992-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-050.5 1376 1512 19.42% 20.68% 59.90%-0.84 +63.6 18
1992-07-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.1 1247 1257 42.42% 21.20% 36.38%+0.11 -40.4 5
1992-07-16 @ Breidablik W 3-145.1 1257 1247 36.38% 21.20% 42.42%-0.11 +40.4 12
1992-07-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-154.8 1483 1529 37.26% 21.20% 41.54%-0.08 +39.7 24
1992-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-354.8 1529 1483 41.54% 21.20% 37.26%+0.08 -39.7 18
1992-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-247.1 1444 1293 61.35% 20.58% 18.07%+0.91 +10.8 16
1992-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-347.1 1293 1444 18.07% 20.58% 61.35%-0.91 -10.8 7
1992-07-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-043.0 1230 1286 35.78% 21.20% 43.02%-0.13 +25.0 9
1992-07-17 @ KA Akureyri L 0-143.0 1286 1230 43.02% 21.20% 35.78%+0.13 -25.0 9
1992-07-24 Breidablik D 1-155.3 1440 1207 68.00% 19.91% 12.09%+1.32 -7.7 19
1992-07-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-155.3 1207 1440 12.09% 19.91% 68.00%-1.32 +7.7 6
1992-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-552.7 1523 1455 52.51% 21.02% 26.47%+0.50 -88.8 24
1992-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 5-152.7 1455 1523 26.47% 21.02% 52.51%-0.50 +88.8 19
1992-07-26 KA Akureyri D 2-259.6 1297 1255 49.45% 21.10% 29.45%+0.37 -1.9 13
1992-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.6 1255 1297 29.45% 21.10% 49.45%-0.37 +1.9 10
1992-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-138.9 1261 1283 40.76% 21.21% 38.04%+0.05 +82.8 12
1992-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-638.9 1283 1261 38.04% 21.21% 40.76%-0.05 -82.8 7
1992-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 3-256.0 1489 1448 49.20% 21.11% 29.69%+0.36 +16.6 21
1992-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-356.0 1448 1489 29.69% 21.11% 49.20%-0.36 -16.6 19
1992-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-334.1 1200 1296 30.57% 21.13% 48.30%-0.33 -52.1 7
1992-07-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-034.1 1296 1200 48.30% 21.13% 30.57%+0.33 +52.1 16
1992-07-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-259.9 1544 1344 65.55% 20.21% 14.24%+1.16 -34.8 19
1992-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-159.9 1344 1544 14.24% 20.21% 65.55%-1.16 +34.8 15
1992-07-30 KR Reykjavik W 1-051.7 1215 1506 12.31% 19.94% 67.74%-1.31 +38.1 9
1992-07-30 @ Breidablik L 0-151.7 1506 1215 67.74% 19.94% 12.31%+1.31 -38.1 21
1992-07-30 IA Akranes L 0-245.0 1432 1434 43.46% 21.19% 35.35%+0.14 -47.6 19
1992-07-30 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-045.0 1434 1432 35.35% 21.19% 43.46%-0.14 +47.6 27
1992-07-30 Thor Akureyri L 0-234.7 1257 1432 21.51% 20.81% 57.68%-0.73 -26.6 10
1992-07-30 @ KA Akureyri W 2-034.7 1432 1257 57.68% 20.81% 21.51%+0.73 +26.6 22
1992-08-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-261.2 1348 1379 39.38% 21.21% 39.41%+0.00 +0.0 17
1992-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-261.2 1379 1348 39.41% 21.21% 39.38%+0.00 -0.0 16
1992-08-12 Breidablik W 4-241.8 1482 1253 67.71% 19.95% 12.34%+1.30 +12.5 30
1992-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 2-441.8 1253 1482 12.34% 19.95% 67.71%-1.30 -12.5 9
1992-08-12 KA Akureyri W 3-029.5 1468 1230 68.34% 19.86% 11.79%+1.35 +22.4 24
1992-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-329.5 1230 1468 11.79% 19.86% 68.34%-1.35 -22.4 10
1992-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-238.8 1459 1148 72.77% 19.09% 8.14%+1.72 +8.3 25
1992-08-12 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-438.8 1148 1459 8.14% 19.09% 72.77%-1.72 -8.3 7
1992-08-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-240.9 1384 1509 27.02% 21.04% 51.94%-0.47 -32.4 19
1992-08-13 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-040.9 1509 1384 51.94% 21.04% 27.02%+0.47 +32.4 22
1992-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-230.0 1139 1490 9.12% 19.34% 71.54%-1.61 -12.0 7
1992-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-030.0 1490 1139 71.54% 19.34% 9.12%+1.61 +12.0 27
1992-08-16 IA Akranes W 1-051.3 1208 1494 12.60% 19.99% 67.42%-1.28 +37.9 13
1992-08-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-151.3 1494 1208 67.42% 19.99% 12.60%+1.28 -37.9 30
1992-08-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-039.7 1542 1348 65.07% 20.26% 14.68%+1.13 +10.0 25
1992-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-139.7 1348 1542 14.68% 20.26% 65.07%-1.13 -10.0 17
1992-08-16 Thor Akureyri L 1-443.7 1379 1467 31.51% 21.14% 47.35%-0.29 -45.0 16
1992-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-143.7 1467 1379 47.35% 21.14% 31.51%+0.29 +45.0 28
1992-08-17 Fram Reykjavik W 1-045.5 1240 1352 28.61% 21.08% 50.30%-0.40 +28.6 12
1992-08-17 @ Breidablik L 0-145.5 1352 1240 50.30% 21.08% 28.61%+0.40 -28.6 19
1992-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 7-128.8 1456 1127 73.68% 18.88% 7.44%+1.81 +22.5 33
1992-08-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-728.8 1127 1456 7.44% 18.88% 73.68%-1.81 -22.5 7
1992-08-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-033.8 1502 1334 62.95% 20.45% 16.60%+1.00 +30.8 30
1992-08-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-333.8 1334 1502 16.60% 20.45% 62.95%-1.00 -30.8 16
1992-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-036.1 1512 1338 63.47% 20.41% 16.12%+1.03 +20.6 31
1992-08-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-236.1 1338 1512 16.12% 20.41% 63.47%-1.03 -20.6 17
1992-08-26 Valur Reykjavik L 0-531.4 1269 1552 12.86% 20.02% 67.12%-1.26 -39.1 12
1992-08-26 @ Breidablik W 5-031.4 1552 1269 67.12% 20.02% 12.86%+1.26 +39.1 28
1992-08-26 KA Akureyri W 1-037.8 1323 1245 53.71% 20.98% 25.31%+0.55 +16.2 22
1992-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.8 1245 1323 25.31% 20.98% 53.71%-0.55 -16.2 13
1992-08-29 KR Reykjavik D 2-264.0 1317 1533 17.79% 20.56% 61.65%-0.93 +4.4 18
1992-08-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-264.0 1533 1317 61.65% 20.56% 17.79%+0.93 -4.4 31
1992-08-29 Fram Reykjavik W 4-255.1 1105 1340 16.26% 20.42% 63.32%-1.02 +52.0 10
1992-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-455.1 1340 1105 63.32% 20.42% 16.26%+1.02 -52.0 22
1992-08-29 Breidablik L 1-247.9 1229 1230 43.67% 21.19% 35.14%+0.15 -23.9 13
1992-08-29 @ KA Akureyri W 2-147.9 1230 1229 35.14% 21.19% 43.67%-0.15 +23.9 15
1992-08-29 Thor Akureyri L 0-354.2 1591 1533 51.32% 21.06% 27.63%+0.45 -79.8 28
1992-08-29 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-054.2 1533 1591 27.63% 21.06% 51.32%-0.45 +79.8 34
1992-08-29 IA Akranes L 1-341.5 1303 1479 21.50% 20.81% 57.69%-0.73 -23.1 16
1992-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-141.5 1479 1303 57.69% 20.81% 21.50%+0.73 +23.1 36
1992-09-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-356.3 1254 1157 55.87% 20.89% 23.23%+0.64 -28.2 15
1992-09-05 @ Breidablik W 3-256.3 1157 1254 23.23% 20.89% 55.87%-0.64 +28.2 13
1992-09-05 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-145.4 1287 1280 44.80% 21.18% 34.02%+0.19 +19.6 25
1992-09-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-245.4 1280 1287 34.02% 21.18% 44.80%-0.19 -19.6 16
1992-09-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-140.6 1502 1321 63.97% 20.36% 15.67%+1.06 +17.4 39
1992-09-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-340.6 1321 1502 15.67% 20.36% 63.97%-1.06 -17.4 18
1992-09-05 Valur Reykjavik L 1-337.1 1205 1511 11.46% 19.81% 68.73%-1.38 -13.0 13
1992-09-05 @ KA Akureyri W 3-137.1 1511 1205 68.73% 19.81% 11.46%+1.38 +13.0 31
1992-09-05 Thor Akureyri W 3-160.8 1529 1613 32.09% 21.15% 46.76%-0.27 +43.9 34
1992-09-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-360.8 1613 1529 46.76% 21.15% 32.09%+0.27 -43.9 34
1992-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 3-036.2 1304 1307 43.34% 21.19% 35.46%+0.14 +58.7 21
1992-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-336.2 1307 1304 35.46% 21.19% 43.34%-0.14 -58.8 25
1992-09-12 IA Akranes D 2-272.1 1569 1519 50.30% 21.08% 28.61%+0.40 -2.0 35
1992-09-12 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-272.1 1519 1569 28.61% 21.08% 50.30%-0.40 +2.0 40
1992-09-12 KR Reykjavik L 1-950.8 1524 1573 36.88% 21.20% 41.92%-0.09 -125.2 31
1992-09-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 9-150.8 1573 1524 41.92% 21.20% 36.88%+0.09 +125.2 37
1992-09-13 KA Akureyri W 2-145.5 1185 1192 42.76% 21.20% 36.05%+0.12 +20.5 16
1992-09-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-245.5 1192 1185 36.05% 21.20% 42.76%-0.12 -20.5 13
1992-09-13 Breidablik W 3-141.4 1260 1226 48.42% 21.13% 30.45%+0.33 +31.0 19
1992-09-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-341.4 1226 1260 30.45% 21.13% 48.42%-0.33 -31.0 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1992-07-30 12.31% @ Breidablik 1215 1 KR Reykjavik 1506 0
2 1992-08-16 12.60% @ KA Akureyri 1208 1 IA Akranes 1494 0
3 1992-07-29 14.24% Vikingur Reykjavik 1344 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1544 1
4 1992-08-29 16.26% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1105 4 Fram Reykjavik 1340 2
5 1992-07-15 19.42% Thor Akureyri 1376 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1512 0
6 1992-06-08 19.81% @ IA Akranes 1255 2 Fram Reykjavik 1448 0
7 1992-05-23 20.74% @ Thor Akureyri 1262 1 Fram Reykjavik 1445 0
8 1992-09-05 23.23% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1157 3 @ Breidablik 1254 2
9 1992-06-29 23.42% @ Breidablik 1216 2 KA Akureyri 1373 1
10 1992-07-25 26.47% Valur Reykjavik 1455 5 @ IA Akranes 1523 1
11 1992-08-29 27.63% Thor Akureyri 1533 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1591 0
12 1992-06-08 27.79% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1329 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1386 1
13 1992-05-28 28.55% Thor Akureyri 1295 1 @ Breidablik 1345 0
14 1992-08-17 28.61% @ Breidablik 1240 1 Fram Reykjavik 1352 0
15 1992-06-14 29.99% FH Hafnarfjordur 1358 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1397 1
16 1992-06-15 30.89% Thor Akureyri 1325 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1357 0
17 1992-05-24 31.07% KA Akureyri 1371 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1401 0
18 1992-07-10 31.79% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1249 3 @ KA Akureyri 1274 1
19 1992-09-05 32.09% @ KR Reykjavik 1529 3 Thor Akureyri 1613 1
20 1992-06-19 33.16% @ IA Akranes 1342 1 KA Akureyri 1418 0
21 1992-06-16 33.64% Fram Reykjavik 1385 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1396 1
22 1992-05-27 34.54% Vikingur Reykjavik 1350 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1353 1
23 1992-08-29 35.14% Breidablik 1230 2 @ KA Akureyri 1229 1
24 1992-07-30 35.35% IA Akranes 1434 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1432 0
25 1992-07-17 35.78% @ KA Akureyri 1230 1 Vikingur Reykjavik 1286 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-09-12 125.19 KR Reykjavik 9 1573 41.92% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1524 36.88% 21.20%
2 1992-07-25 88.76 Valur Reykjavik 5 1455 26.47% @ IA Akranes 1 1523 52.51% 21.02%
3 1992-07-26 82.82 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1261 40.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1283 38.04% 21.21%
4 1992-07-02 81.77 IA Akranes 4 1385 40.38% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1347 38.41% 21.21%
5 1992-08-29 79.83 Thor Akureyri 3 1533 27.63% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1591 51.32% 21.06%
6 1992-07-02 69.79 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1370 47.32% KA Akureyri 0 1344 31.53% 21.15%
7 1992-07-15 63.58 Thor Akureyri 2 1376 19.42% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1512 59.90% 20.68%
8 1992-06-08 63.15 @ IA Akranes 2 1255 19.81% Fram Reykjavik 0 1448 59.49% 20.70%
9 1992-06-20 61.43 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1353 41.29% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1370 37.51% 21.21%
10 1992-06-16 60.23 Fram Reykjavik 4 1385 33.64% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1396 45.19% 21.18%
11 1992-09-12 58.75 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1304 43.34% Fram Reykjavik 0 1307 35.46% 21.19%
12 1992-07-29 52.08 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1296 48.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1200 30.57% 21.13%
13 1992-08-29 52.02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1105 16.26% Fram Reykjavik 2 1340 63.32% 20.42%
14 1992-05-24 51.61 KA Akureyri 2 1371 31.07% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1401 47.80% 21.14%
15 1992-07-30 47.60 IA Akranes 2 1434 35.35% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1432 43.46% 21.19%
16 1992-08-16 45.02 Thor Akureyri 4 1467 47.35% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1379 31.51% 21.14%
17 1992-06-19 44.76 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1405 53.53% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1329 25.49% 20.99%
18 1992-07-10 44.09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1249 31.79% @ KA Akureyri 1 1274 47.06% 21.15%
19 1992-09-05 43.86 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1529 32.09% Thor Akureyri 1 1613 46.76% 21.15%
20 1992-07-16 40.41 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1257 36.38% @ Breidablik 1 1247 42.42% 21.20%
21 1992-07-16 39.73 @ IA Akranes 3 1483 37.26% KR Reykjavik 1 1529 41.54% 21.20%
22 1992-08-26 39.13 Valur Reykjavik 5 1552 67.12% @ Breidablik 0 1269 12.86% 20.02%
23 1992-07-30 38.12 @ Breidablik 1 1215 12.31% KR Reykjavik 0 1506 67.74% 19.94%
24 1992-08-16 37.93 @ KA Akureyri 1 1208 12.60% IA Akranes 0 1494 67.42% 19.99%
25 1992-05-28 35.84 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1412 42.30% KR Reykjavik 1 1423 36.50% 21.20%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-09-12 72.1 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1569 50.30% IA Akranes 2 1519 28.61% 21.08%
2 1992-05-28 66.8 @ KA Akureyri 3 1423 48.93% FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1384 29.96% 21.11%
3 1992-08-29 64.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1317 17.79% KR Reykjavik 2 1533 61.65% 20.56%
4 1992-07-01 62.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1282 16.92% Fram Reykjavik 2 1508 62.60% 20.48%
5 1992-06-08 61.5 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1324 30.30% KA Akureyri 2 1421 48.58% 21.12%
6 1992-08-12 61.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1348 39.38% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1379 39.41% 21.21%
7 1992-09-05 60.8 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1529 32.09% Thor Akureyri 1 1613 46.76% 21.15%
8 1992-05-23 60.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1428 64.30% IA Akranes 2 1244 15.37% 20.33%
9 1992-06-27 60.5 @ IA Akranes 2 1388 57.26% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1278 21.91% 20.83%
10 1992-07-29 59.9 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1344 14.24% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1544 65.55% 20.21%
11 1992-07-26 59.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1297 49.45% KA Akureyri 2 1255 29.45% 21.10%
12 1992-07-13 58.7 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1534 55.56% Valur Reykjavik 0 1440 23.54% 20.91%
13 1992-06-13 57.8 @ KA Akureyri 1 1420 45.93% KR Reykjavik 1 1404 32.90% 21.17%
14 1992-06-28 56.9 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1414 49.95% Valur Reykjavik 1 1367 28.96% 21.09%
15 1992-09-05 56.3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1157 23.23% @ Breidablik 2 1254 55.87% 20.89%
16 1992-07-27 56.0 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1489 49.20% Fram Reykjavik 2 1448 29.69% 21.11%
17 1992-05-27 55.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1425 63.62% IA Akranes 1 1248 15.98% 20.40%
18 1992-07-24 55.3 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1440 68.00% Breidablik 1 1207 12.09% 19.91%
19 1992-08-29 55.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1105 16.26% Fram Reykjavik 2 1340 63.32% 20.42%
20 1992-07-16 54.8 @ IA Akranes 3 1483 37.26% KR Reykjavik 1 1529 41.54% 21.20%
21 1992-08-29 54.2 Thor Akureyri 3 1533 27.63% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1591 51.32% 21.06%
22 1992-06-25 53.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1382 39.16% Thor Akureyri 0 1414 39.63% 21.21%
23 1992-07-25 52.7 Valur Reykjavik 5 1455 26.47% @ IA Akranes 1 1523 52.51% 21.02%
24 1992-06-29 52.0 @ Breidablik 2 1216 23.42% KA Akureyri 1 1373 55.68% 20.90%
25 1992-06-08 51.9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1329 27.79% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1386 51.15% 21.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-08-25 28.8 @ IA Akranes 7 1456 73.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1127 7.44% 18.88%
2 1992-08-12 29.5 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1468 68.34% KA Akureyri 0 1230 11.79% 19.86%
3 1992-08-16 30.0 KR Reykjavik 2 1490 71.54% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1139 9.12% 19.34%
4 1992-06-20 31.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1445 63.06% Breidablik 0 1275 16.49% 20.44%
5 1992-08-26 31.4 Valur Reykjavik 5 1552 67.12% @ Breidablik 0 1269 12.86% 20.02%
6 1992-08-25 33.8 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1502 62.95% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1334 16.60% 20.45%
7 1992-07-29 34.1 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1296 48.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1200 30.57% 21.13%
8 1992-06-19 34.5 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1405 53.53% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1329 25.49% 20.99%
9 1992-06-25 34.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1338 55.49% Breidablik 0 1245 23.60% 20.91%
10 1992-07-30 34.7 Thor Akureyri 2 1432 57.68% @ KA Akureyri 0 1257 21.51% 20.81%
11 1992-07-02 35.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1370 47.32% KA Akureyri 0 1344 31.53% 21.15%
12 1992-07-12 35.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1504 68.39% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1265 11.75% 19.86%
13 1992-08-25 36.1 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1512 63.47% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1338 16.12% 20.41%
14 1992-09-12 36.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1304 43.34% Fram Reykjavik 0 1307 35.46% 21.19%
15 1992-06-24 36.9 KR Reykjavik 2 1450 53.88% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1309 25.15% 20.97%
16 1992-09-05 37.1 Valur Reykjavik 3 1511 68.73% @ KA Akureyri 1 1205 11.46% 19.81%
17 1992-07-02 37.5 IA Akranes 4 1385 40.38% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1347 38.41% 21.21%
18 1992-08-26 37.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1323 53.71% KA Akureyri 0 1245 25.31% 20.98%
19 1992-06-20 38.0 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1353 41.29% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1370 37.51% 21.21%
20 1992-06-28 38.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1495 67.79% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1265 12.27% 19.94%
21 1992-08-12 38.8 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1459 72.77% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1148 8.14% 19.09%
22 1992-07-26 38.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1261 40.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1283 38.04% 21.21%
23 1992-06-09 39.3 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1387 52.89% Breidablik 0 1316 26.11% 21.01%
24 1992-08-16 39.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1542 65.07% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1348 14.68% 20.26%
25 1992-06-23 40.5 IA Akranes 1 1369 46.77% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1284 32.08% 21.15%