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1991 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

37 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1982.0

Relegated

Vidir Gardur

9 pts

Stjarnan · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

14.53 points above expected

37 points · 22.47 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

6.31 points below expected

18 points · 24.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 12 1 5 37 36 21 +15 22.47 +14.53
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 29 15 +14 34.17 +2.83
3 KR Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 34 18 +16 32.83 -4.83
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 2 8 26 30 24 +6 28.30 -2.30
5 Breidablik 18 7 5 6 26 26 27 -1 22.65 +3.35
6 KA Akureyri 18 7 4 7 25 21 23 -2 21.88 +3.12
7 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 7 3 8 24 28 36 -8 27.23 -3.23
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 6 4 8 22 26 32 -6 22.77 -0.77
9 Stjarnan Relegated 18 4 6 8 18 23 27 -4 24.31 -6.31
10 Vidir Gardur Relegated 18 2 3 13 9 17 47 -30 15.03 -6.03

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1463 37 34.17 +2.83 73.0% 15 25 31 34 38 43 54
KR Reykjavik 1415 28 32.83 -4.83 22.1% 13 24 29 33 37 42 52
Valur Reykjavik 1365 26 28.30 -2.30 37.6% 8 19 24 28 32 38 50
Vikingur Reykjavik 1363 37 22.47 +14.53 99.7% 4 14 19 22 26 31 44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1306 24 27.23 -3.23 31.5% 7 18 23 27 31 37 48
Stjarnan 1301 18 24.31 -6.31 14.8% 6 15 20 24 28 34 44
KA Akureyri 1294 25 21.88 +3.12 74.9% 3 13 18 22 26 31 43
Breidablik 1280 26 22.65 +3.35 76.0% 5 14 19 23 26 32 47
FH Hafnarfjordur 1275 22 22.77 -0.77 48.3% 5 14 19 23 27 32 42
Vidir Gardur 1151 9 15.03 -6.03 13.6% 0 7 12 15 18 24 36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IV KA KR STJ VR VG VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
2.70
0-2-0
1.60
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.30
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.76
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.88
 —
0-0-2
1.66
0-2-0
2.25
0-0-2
2.85
1-1-0
1.74
1-1-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.96
Fram Reykjavik
0-2-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.95
 —
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.99
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.81
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
4.54
1-0-1
3.90
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.23
0-2-0
3.33
0-0-2
1.93
 —
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
4.14
0-0-2
3.50
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.73
0-1-1
1.62
0-0-2
2.20
 —
1-0-1
1.75
1-1-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.13
1-1-0
3.63
0-1-1
2.64
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.76
0-1-1
3.87
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
3.86
 —
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
3.90
Stjarnan
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.06
1-0-1
1.79
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
3.10
0-1-1
1.84
 —
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.75
0-0-2
2.94
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
3.01
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
3.12
 —
1-0-1
4.13
1-0-1
3.56
Vidir Gardur
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
2.00
0-0-2
1.12
1-0-1
1.48
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
1.49
 —
0-0-2
1.74
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.70
2-0-0
2.08
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
1.70
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.03
2-0-0
3.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +11.6
Allowed 0.72 -7.4
Differential 0.82 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%10.00%5.56%2.22%2.22%1.11%24.44%
110.00%10.00%6.67%5.00%1.11%1.11%33.89%
25.56%6.67%5.56%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.22%
32.22%5.00%3.33%1.11%0.56%—12.22%
42.22%1.11%0.56%0.56%——4.44%
5+1.11%1.11%0.56%———2.78%
Total24.44%33.89%22.22%12.22%4.44%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.09
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
211.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.50 -0.06
SD 0.92 1.29 1.59
CV 0.64 0.86 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.78 -0.33
SD 1.04 1.96 2.38
CV 0.72 1.10 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
122.22%11.11%————33.33%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.83 +0.78
SD 1.14 0.86 1.44
CV 0.71 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
35.56%—16.67%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%27.78%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.00 -0.44
SD 1.10 1.57 2.12
CV 0.70 0.79 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.28 -0.11
SD 0.99 1.02 1.41
CV 0.84 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
2——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.00 +0.89
SD 1.88 1.03 2.22
CV 0.99 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 1.36 1.20 1.83
CV 1.07 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%—11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2——11.11%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.94 0.97 2.30
CV 1.16 0.73 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—16.67%5.56%33.33%
1—11.11%22.22%16.67%—5.56%55.56%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%16.67%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.61 -1.67
SD 1.16 1.75 2.33
CV 1.23 0.67 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 1.78 1.10 2.12
CV 0.89 0.94 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 37 22.47 +14.53
2 Breidablik 26 22.65 +3.35
3 KA Akureyri 25 21.88 +3.12
4 Fram Reykjavik 37 34.17 +2.83
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 22.77 -0.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 18 24.31 -6.31
2 Vidir Gardur 9 15.03 -6.03
3 KR Reykjavik 28 32.83 -4.83
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 27.23 -3.23
5 Valur Reykjavik 26 28.30 -2.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jul 28 – Sep 1 1 in 1,312
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jul 4 – Jul 28 1 in 78
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jun 14 – Jul 12 1 in 35
4 Breidablik 4 May 31 – Jun 20 1 in 29
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 May 20 – Jun 10 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 28 – Aug 15 1 in 283
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 13 – Jun 25 1 in 24
3 Fram Reykjavik 2 May 30 – Jun 10 1 in 13
4 KA Akureyri 3 Jul 4 – Jul 21 1 in 10
5 Vidir Gardur 4 Jun 30 – Jul 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 8 Jul 28 – Sep 14 1 in 95
2 Breidablik 6 May 20 – Jun 25 1 in 35
3 Fram Reykjavik 12 Jun 14 – Aug 18 1 in 21
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Jul 4 – Jul 31 1 in 20
5 Stjarnan 4 Jul 1 – Jul 21 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 28 – Aug 15 1 in 25
2 Breidablik 7 Jun 25 – Jul 31 1 in 22
3 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jul 5 – Aug 1 1 in 20
4 Stjarnan 5 Jun 9 – Jul 1 1 in 17
5 Vidir Gardur 10 May 20 – Jul 22 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik1.46%3.63%6.94%10.12%12.65%14.07%14.99%15.08%13.18%7.88%
Fram Reykjavik42.89%25.89%14.39%7.66%4.39%2.48%1.32%0.67%0.27%0.04%
KR Reykjavik32.98%27.02%16.16%10.19%6.06%3.66%2.17%1.16%0.46%0.14%
Valur Reykjavik9.56%16.01%18.36%16.29%12.58%10.09%7.23%5.29%3.56%1.03%
Breidablik1.47%3.48%6.55%9.46%12.54%13.95%15.11%15.18%14.39%7.87%
KA Akureyri1.10%3.01%5.13%7.83%10.56%13.59%15.03%16.24%17.55%9.96%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar6.55%11.68%15.14%16.12%13.90%11.89%10.17%7.92%4.72%1.91%
FH Hafnarfjordur1.27%3.62%7.06%9.45%11.74%13.64%14.49%15.52%15.75%7.46%
Stjarnan2.70%5.54%9.87%12.03%13.85%13.67%14.25%12.96%10.25%4.88%
Vidir Gardur0.02%0.12%0.40%0.85%1.73%2.96%5.24%9.98%19.87%58.83%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
41.11%20.00%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
1%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 7th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.37 * Some Luck: 4.37 to 6.55 * Lucky: 6.55 to 8.73 * Wild Swing: 8.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.39 * Close: 1.39 to 2.08 * Off: 2.08 to 2.78 * Way Off: 2.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.94 * A Surprise: 0.94 to 1.5 * Several Surprises: 1.5 to 2.06 * Many Surprises: 2.06 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.97 points
Some Luck
05.4614
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.40
Off
01.744
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.71%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.55%
Vidir Gardur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.30
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.22
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1800.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 99.69% 0.31%
KR Reykjavik 99.40% 0.60%
Valur Reykjavik 95.41% 4.59%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 93.37% 6.63%
Stjarnan 84.87% 15.13%
Vikingur Reykjavik 78.94% 21.06%
Breidablik 77.74% 22.26%
FH Hafnarfjordur 76.79% 23.21%
KA Akureyri 72.49% 27.51%
Vidir Gardur 21.30% 78.70%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1991-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-4 1287 1261 44.2% 21.1% 34.7% -10.1 0
1991-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1261 1287 34.7% 21.1% 44.2% +10.2 3
1991-05-20 Breidablik D 3-3 1440 1271 61.8% 19.1% 19.1% -0.9 1
1991-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1271 1440 19.1% 19.1% 61.8% +1.0 1
1991-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1289 1363 30.5% 20.9% 48.6% -4.6 0
1991-05-20 @ KA Akureyri W 3-2 1363 1289 48.6% 20.9% 30.5% +4.6 3
1991-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1326 1364 35.2% 21.1% 43.7% -15.8 0
1991-05-20 @ Stjarnan W 3-0 1364 1326 43.7% 21.1% 35.2% +15.8 3
1991-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1213 1398 19.1% 19.1% 61.8% -12.0 0
1991-05-20 @ Vidir Gardur W 4-0 1398 1213 61.8% 19.1% 19.1% +12.0 3
1991-05-30 Vidir Gardur W 2-0 1368 1201 61.5% 19.2% 19.3% +6.4 6
1991-05-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1201 1368 19.3% 19.2% 61.5% -6.4 0
1991-05-30 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1311 1439 24.3% 20.2% 55.5% +8.4 3
1991-05-30 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1439 1311 55.5% 20.2% 24.3% -8.4 1
1991-05-30 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1380 1271 55.0% 20.3% 24.8% +4.3 6
1991-05-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1271 1380 24.8% 20.3% 55.0% -4.3 3
1991-05-31 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1272 1284 38.7% 21.2% 40.1% +12.1 4
1991-05-31 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1284 1272 40.1% 21.2% 38.7% -12.1 0
1991-05-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1410 1277 57.8% 19.9% 22.4% -1.4 4
1991-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1277 1410 22.4% 19.9% 57.8% +1.4 1
1991-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1279 1374 27.9% 20.7% 51.4% +0.8 2
1991-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1374 1279 51.4% 20.7% 27.9% -0.8 7
1991-06-08 Breidablik L 1-2 1195 1284 28.6% 20.7% 50.6% -4.6 0
1991-06-08 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1284 1195 50.6% 20.7% 28.6% +4.6 7
1991-06-09 Stjarnan W 1-0 1272 1319 34.0% 21.1% 44.9% +7.0 3
1991-06-09 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1319 1272 44.9% 21.1% 34.0% -7.0 3
1991-06-09 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1267 1408 23.0% 20.0% 57.0% -9.2 3
1991-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1408 1267 57.0% 20.0% 23.0% +9.2 7
1991-06-10 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1431 1384 47.0% 21.0% 32.0% -7.3 1
1991-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1384 1431 32.0% 21.0% 47.0% +7.3 9
1991-06-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1289 1279 41.8% 21.2% 37.0% +6.0 10
1991-06-12 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1279 1289 37.0% 21.2% 41.8% -6.0 2
1991-06-12 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1373 1258 55.8% 20.2% 24.0% -13.9 7
1991-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1258 1373 24.0% 20.2% 55.8% +13.8 6
1991-06-13 Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1312 1190 56.5% 20.1% 23.4% -1.2 4
1991-06-13 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1190 1312 23.4% 20.1% 56.5% +1.2 1
1991-06-13 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1392 1418 36.8% 21.2% 42.0% -16.4 9
1991-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1418 1392 42.0% 21.2% 36.8% +16.4 10
1991-06-14 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1423 1279 59.1% 19.6% 21.3% +3.5 4
1991-06-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1279 1423 21.3% 19.6% 59.1% -3.5 3
1991-06-19 Stjarnan W 2-0 1273 1311 35.2% 21.1% 43.6% +13.0 5
1991-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1311 1273 43.6% 21.1% 35.2% -12.9 4
1991-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1434 1360 50.7% 20.7% 28.6% +4.9 13
1991-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1360 1434 28.6% 20.7% 50.7% -4.9 7
1991-06-19 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1191 1427 15.2% 17.9% 66.9% -2.5 1
1991-06-19 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1427 1191 66.9% 17.9% 15.2% +2.5 7
1991-06-20 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1276 1375 27.5% 20.6% 51.9% +8.0 6
1991-06-20 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1375 1276 51.9% 20.6% 27.5% -8.0 9
1991-06-20 Breidablik L 0-2 1272 1295 37.2% 21.2% 41.6% -11.4 6
1991-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1295 1272 41.6% 21.2% 37.2% +11.4 13
1991-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik L 3-4 1298 1260 45.8% 21.1% 33.1% -6.2 4
1991-06-24 @ Stjarnan W 4-3 1260 1298 33.1% 21.1% 45.8% +6.2 9
1991-06-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1306 1439 23.9% 20.1% 56.0% +1.1 14
1991-06-25 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1439 1306 56.0% 20.1% 23.9% -1.1 14
1991-06-25 Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1284 1189 53.3% 20.5% 26.2% -0.9 7
1991-06-25 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1189 1284 26.2% 20.5% 53.3% +0.9 2
1991-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1367 1355 42.3% 21.2% 36.5% -6.3 9
1991-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1355 1367 36.5% 21.2% 42.3% +6.3 10
1991-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1429 1286 59.0% 19.7% 21.4% +3.5 10
1991-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1286 1429 21.4% 19.7% 59.0% -3.5 5
1991-06-30 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1283 1283 40.5% 21.2% 38.3% -12.2 5
1991-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1283 1283 38.3% 21.2% 40.5% +12.2 10
1991-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1190 1361 20.2% 19.4% 60.4% -5.8 2
1991-06-30 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1361 1190 60.4% 19.4% 20.2% +5.8 12
1991-06-30 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1266 1433 20.6% 19.5% 59.9% -6.8 9
1991-06-30 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1433 1266 59.9% 19.5% 20.6% +6.8 13
1991-07-01 Breidablik W 3-2 1361 1307 48.0% 20.9% 31.1% +4.7 13
1991-07-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1307 1361 31.1% 20.9% 48.0% -4.7 14
1991-07-01 Stjarnan D 1-1 1438 1292 59.3% 19.6% 21.1% -1.4 15
1991-07-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1292 1438 21.1% 19.6% 59.3% +1.4 5
1991-07-04 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1440 1436 41.0% 21.2% 37.8% +6.1 16
1991-07-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1436 1440 37.8% 21.2% 41.0% -6.1 15
1991-07-04 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1295 1260 45.5% 21.1% 33.4% -7.1 10
1991-07-04 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1260 1295 33.4% 21.1% 45.5% +7.1 12
1991-07-04 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1184 1271 29.0% 20.8% 50.3% -4.6 2
1991-07-04 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1271 1184 50.3% 20.8% 29.0% +4.6 8
1991-07-05 Breidablik D 2-2 1367 1303 49.4% 20.8% 29.8% -0.5 13
1991-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1303 1367 29.8% 20.8% 49.4% +0.5 15
1991-07-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1293 1366 30.6% 20.9% 48.4% +6.7 8
1991-07-06 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1366 1293 48.4% 20.9% 30.6% -6.7 13
1991-07-12 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1275 1366 28.4% 20.7% 50.8% +12.8 11
1991-07-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1366 1275 50.8% 20.7% 28.4% -12.8 13
1991-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1359 1446 28.9% 20.8% 50.3% -4.9 13
1991-07-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1446 1359 50.3% 20.8% 28.9% +4.9 19
1991-07-14 Stjarnan L 0-2 1303 1300 41.0% 21.2% 37.8% -12.3 15
1991-07-14 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1300 1303 37.8% 21.2% 41.0% +12.3 11
1991-07-14 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1430 1288 58.9% 19.7% 21.5% +3.8 18
1991-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1288 1430 21.5% 19.7% 58.9% -3.8 10
1991-07-14 Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1267 1179 52.3% 20.6% 27.1% +7.6 15
1991-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1179 1267 27.1% 20.6% 52.3% -7.6 2
1991-07-21 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1354 1284 50.1% 20.8% 29.1% +13.5 16
1991-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1284 1354 29.1% 20.8% 50.1% -13.5 10
1991-07-21 Stjarnan D 2-2 1354 1312 46.3% 21.0% 32.6% -0.3 14
1991-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1312 1354 32.6% 21.0% 46.3% +0.3 12
1991-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1274 1288 38.5% 21.2% 40.3% -6.2 15
1991-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1288 1274 40.3% 21.2% 38.5% +6.2 14
1991-07-22 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1291 1451 21.2% 19.6% 59.1% +1.3 16
1991-07-22 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1451 1291 59.1% 19.6% 21.2% -1.3 20
1991-07-22 Vidir Gardur W 7-1 1434 1172 70.6% 16.7% 12.6% +9.5 21
1991-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-7 1172 1434 12.6% 16.7% 70.6% -9.5 2
1991-07-28 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1294 1443 22.2% 19.8% 57.9% +16.5 17
1991-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1443 1294 57.9% 19.8% 22.2% -16.5 21
1991-07-28 Breidablik W 3-1 1271 1292 37.5% 21.2% 41.3% +10.7 13
1991-07-28 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1292 1271 41.3% 21.2% 37.5% -10.7 16
1991-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-2 1162 1368 17.4% 18.6% 63.9% +19.2 5
1991-07-28 @ Vidir Gardur L 2-5 1368 1162 63.9% 18.6% 17.4% -19.2 16
1991-07-28 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1268 1353 29.1% 20.8% 50.1% +7.7 18
1991-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1353 1268 50.1% 20.8% 29.1% -7.7 14
1991-07-29 Stjarnan W 1-0 1449 1312 58.3% 19.8% 21.9% +3.8 23
1991-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1312 1449 21.9% 19.8% 58.3% -3.8 12
1991-07-31 Vidir Gardur D 0-0 1281 1181 53.9% 20.4% 25.7% -1.1 17
1991-07-31 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1181 1281 25.7% 20.4% 53.9% +1.1 6
1991-07-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1348 1311 45.8% 21.1% 33.1% -0.3 17
1991-07-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1311 1348 33.1% 21.1% 45.8% +0.3 18
1991-07-31 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1427 1276 59.9% 19.5% 20.6% -8.5 21
1991-07-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1276 1427 20.6% 19.5% 59.9% +8.5 21
1991-08-01 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1309 1281 44.3% 21.1% 34.5% -0.3 13
1991-08-01 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1281 1309 34.5% 21.1% 44.3% +0.3 14
1991-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1345 1453 26.5% 20.5% 53.0% -4.5 14
1991-08-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1453 1345 53.0% 20.5% 26.5% +4.5 26
1991-08-11 Breidablik L 1-3 1311 1280 44.8% 21.1% 34.1% -11.5 18
1991-08-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1280 1311 34.1% 21.1% 44.8% +11.5 20
1991-08-11 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1282 1458 19.8% 19.3% 60.9% +1.5 15
1991-08-11 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1458 1282 60.9% 19.3% 19.8% -1.5 27
1991-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1418 1341 51.1% 20.7% 28.2% -7.9 21
1991-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1341 1418 28.2% 20.7% 51.1% +7.8 17
1991-08-11 Stjarnan L 0-5 1182 1308 24.6% 20.2% 55.2% -18.8 6
1991-08-11 @ Vidir Gardur W 5-0 1308 1182 55.2% 20.2% 24.6% +18.8 16
1991-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-0 1284 1348 31.8% 21.0% 47.3% +38.4 24
1991-08-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-6 1348 1284 47.3% 21.0% 31.8% -38.4 17
1991-08-14 Vidir Gardur W 4-0 1456 1164 73.1% 15.9% 11.0% +6.8 30
1991-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1164 1456 11.0% 15.9% 73.1% -6.8 6
1991-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1327 1300 44.4% 21.1% 34.5% -0.2 17
1991-08-14 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1300 1327 34.5% 21.1% 44.4% +0.2 19
1991-08-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1292 1323 36.1% 21.2% 42.7% -5.6 20
1991-08-15 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1323 1292 42.7% 21.2% 36.1% +5.6 27
1991-08-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1310 1411 27.3% 20.6% 52.1% +7.1 20
1991-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1411 1310 52.1% 20.6% 27.3% -7.1 21
1991-08-15 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1349 1283 49.5% 20.8% 29.6% +8.2 20
1991-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1283 1349 29.6% 20.8% 49.5% -8.2 15
1991-08-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1300 1463 20.9% 19.6% 59.5% -6.0 19
1991-08-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1463 1300 59.5% 19.6% 20.9% +6.0 33
1991-08-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1317 1357 34.9% 21.1% 44.0% +6.5 23
1991-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1357 1317 44.0% 21.1% 34.9% -6.5 20
1991-08-19 Breidablik W 4-0 1403 1286 56.0% 20.1% 23.9% +14.8 24
1991-08-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1286 1403 23.9% 20.1% 56.0% -14.8 20
1991-08-19 KA Akureyri L 1-2 1157 1275 25.4% 20.4% 54.2% -4.1 6
1991-08-19 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1275 1157 54.2% 20.4% 25.4% +4.1 18
1991-08-20 Stjarnan W 4-1 1328 1327 40.7% 21.2% 38.1% +14.2 30
1991-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1327 1328 38.1% 21.2% 40.7% -14.2 17
1991-08-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1271 1323 33.3% 21.1% 45.6% +6.7 23
1991-08-31 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1323 1271 45.6% 21.1% 33.3% -6.7 23
1991-08-31 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1312 1418 26.8% 20.5% 52.7% -4.6 17
1991-08-31 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1418 1312 52.7% 20.5% 26.8% +4.6 27
1991-08-31 Vidir Gardur L 0-2 1350 1153 64.7% 18.4% 16.8% -18.3 20
1991-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1153 1350 16.8% 18.4% 64.7% +18.3 9
1991-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1469 1342 57.1% 20.0% 22.9% -16.3 33
1991-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1342 1469 22.9% 20.0% 57.1% +16.3 33
1991-09-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1279 1294 38.4% 21.2% 40.4% +6.1 21
1991-09-01 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1294 1279 40.4% 21.2% 38.4% -6.1 19
1991-09-07 Vidir Gardur W 4-0 1288 1171 55.9% 20.1% 23.9% +14.8 22
1991-09-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1171 1288 23.9% 20.1% 55.9% -14.8 9
1991-09-07 Stjarnan D 1-1 1317 1308 41.8% 21.2% 37.1% -0.2 24
1991-09-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1308 1317 37.1% 21.2% 41.8% +0.2 18
1991-09-07 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1359 1285 50.6% 20.7% 28.7% -0.8 34
1991-09-07 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1285 1359 28.7% 20.7% 50.6% +0.8 22
1991-09-08 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1278 1332 33.0% 21.1% 45.9% -4.9 23
1991-09-08 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1332 1278 45.9% 21.1% 33.0% +4.9 23
1991-09-08 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1423 1453 36.2% 21.2% 42.6% +0.2 28
1991-09-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1453 1423 42.6% 21.2% 36.2% -0.2 34
1991-09-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1453 1316 58.2% 19.8% 22.0% +10.5 37
1991-09-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1316 1453 22.0% 19.8% 58.2% -10.5 24
1991-09-14 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1286 1423 23.5% 20.1% 56.5% +7.7 25
1991-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 2-3 1423 1286 56.5% 20.1% 23.5% -7.7 28
1991-09-14 Breidablik L 0-1 1308 1273 45.4% 21.1% 33.5% -7.1 18
1991-09-14 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1273 1308 33.5% 21.1% 45.4% +7.1 26
1991-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 8-1 1337 1303 45.4% 21.1% 33.6% +27.7 26
1991-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-8 1303 1337 33.6% 21.1% 45.4% -27.8 22
1991-09-14 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1156 1358 17.7% 18.7% 63.6% -5.1 9
1991-09-14 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1358 1156 63.6% 18.7% 17.7% +5.1 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-08-31 16.83% Vidir Gardur 1153 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1350 0
2 1991-07-28 17.41% @ Vidir Gardur 1162 5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1368 2
3 1991-07-31 20.64% Vikingur Reykjavik 1276 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1427 1
4 1991-07-28 22.25% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1294 2 KR Reykjavik 1443 0
5 1991-09-01 22.94% Vikingur Reykjavik 1342 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1469 0
6 1991-09-14 23.46% @ KA Akureyri 1286 3 KR Reykjavik 1423 2
7 1991-06-12 24.03% Vikingur Reykjavik 1258 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1373 1
8 1991-05-30 24.31% @ Stjarnan 1311 1 Fram Reykjavik 1439 0
9 1991-08-15 27.32% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1310 3 KR Reykjavik 1411 2
10 1991-06-20 27.49% @ KA Akureyri 1276 1 Valur Reykjavik 1375 0
11 1991-08-11 28.23% Valur Reykjavik 1341 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1418 0
12 1991-07-12 28.45% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1275 3 Valur Reykjavik 1366 1
13 1991-07-28 29.14% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1268 1 Valur Reykjavik 1353 0
14 1991-07-06 30.65% @ Stjarnan 1293 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1366 2
15 1991-08-12 31.76% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1284 6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1348 0
16 1991-06-10 32.03% Valur Reykjavik 1384 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1431 0
17 1991-06-24 33.14% Vikingur Reykjavik 1260 4 @ Stjarnan 1298 3
18 1991-08-31 33.29% @ Breidablik 1271 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1323 1
19 1991-07-04 33.43% Vikingur Reykjavik 1260 1 @ KA Akureyri 1295 0
20 1991-09-14 33.51% Breidablik 1273 1 @ Stjarnan 1308 0
21 1991-06-09 34.00% @ KA Akureyri 1272 1 Stjarnan 1319 0
22 1991-08-11 34.06% Breidablik 1280 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1311 1
23 1991-05-20 34.66% Vikingur Reykjavik 1261 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1287 2
24 1991-08-19 34.88% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1317 2 Valur Reykjavik 1357 1
25 1991-06-19 35.23% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1273 2 Stjarnan 1311 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-08-12 38.44 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1284 31.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1348 47.26% 20.98%
2 1991-09-14 27.75 @ Valur Reykjavik 8 1337 45.35% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1303 33.57% 21.08%
3 1991-07-28 19.16 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1162 17.41% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1368 63.95% 18.64%
4 1991-08-11 18.77 Stjarnan 5 1308 55.16% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1182 24.60% 20.24%
5 1991-08-31 18.26 Vidir Gardur 2 1153 16.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1350 64.71% 18.45%
6 1991-07-28 16.54 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1294 22.25% KR Reykjavik 0 1443 57.92% 19.84%
7 1991-06-13 16.43 KR Reykjavik 3 1418 41.98% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1392 36.83% 21.19%
8 1991-09-01 16.33 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1342 22.94% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1469 57.10% 19.96%
9 1991-05-20 15.83 Valur Reykjavik 3 1364 43.68% @ Stjarnan 0 1326 35.18% 21.14%
10 1991-09-07 14.85 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1288 55.93% Vidir Gardur 0 1171 23.94% 20.14%
11 1991-08-19 14.82 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1403 55.99% Breidablik 0 1286 23.88% 20.13%
12 1991-08-20 14.22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1328 40.72% Stjarnan 1 1327 38.08% 21.20%
13 1991-06-12 13.86 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1258 24.03% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1373 55.82% 20.15%
14 1991-07-21 13.52 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1354 50.09% KA Akureyri 0 1284 29.12% 20.78%
15 1991-06-19 12.95 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1273 35.23% Stjarnan 0 1311 43.62% 21.15%
16 1991-07-12 12.76 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1275 28.45% Valur Reykjavik 1 1366 50.84% 20.72%
17 1991-07-14 12.31 Stjarnan 2 1300 37.82% @ Breidablik 0 1303 40.98% 21.20%
18 1991-06-30 12.19 KA Akureyri 2 1283 38.31% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1283 40.48% 21.20%
19 1991-05-31 12.09 @ Breidablik 2 1272 38.71% KA Akureyri 0 1284 40.08% 21.21%
20 1991-05-20 12.02 KR Reykjavik 4 1398 61.78% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1213 19.10% 19.12%
21 1991-08-11 11.47 Breidablik 3 1280 34.06% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1311 44.84% 21.10%
22 1991-06-20 11.40 Breidablik 2 1295 41.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1272 37.20% 21.19%
23 1991-07-28 10.74 @ KA Akureyri 3 1271 37.46% Breidablik 1 1292 41.35% 21.20%
24 1991-09-14 10.53 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1453 58.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1316 22.02% 19.79%
25 1991-05-20 10.15 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1261 34.66% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1287 44.21% 21.13%