Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1991
‹ ›

1991 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

37 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1982.0

Relegated

Vidir Gardur

9 pts

Stjarnan · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

13.95 points above expected

37 points · 23.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

7.68 points below expected

18 points · 25.68 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 12 1 5 37 36 21 +15 23.05 +13.95
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 29 15 +14 33.80 +3.20
3 KR Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 34 18 +16 32.54 -4.54
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 2 8 26 30 24 +6 28.37 -2.37
5 Breidablik 18 7 5 6 26 26 27 -1 23.10 +2.90
6 KA Akureyri 18 7 4 7 25 21 23 -2 22.60 +2.40
7 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 7 3 8 24 28 36 -8 26.25 -2.25
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 6 4 8 22 26 32 -6 22.00 +0.00
9 Stjarnan Relegated 18 4 6 8 18 23 27 -4 25.68 -7.68
10 Vidir Gardur Relegated 18 2 3 13 9 17 47 -30 15.06 -6.06

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 37 23.05 +13.95
2 Fram Reykjavik 37 33.80 +3.20
3 Breidablik 26 23.10 +2.90
4 KA Akureyri 25 22.60 +2.40
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 22.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 18 25.68 -7.68
2 Vidir Gardur 9 15.06 -6.06
3 KR Reykjavik 28 32.54 -4.54
4 Valur Reykjavik 26 28.37 -2.37
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 26.25 -2.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jul 28 – Sep 1 1 in 1,307
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jul 4 – Jul 28 1 in 78
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jun 14 – Jul 12 1 in 35
4 Breidablik 4 May 31 – Jun 20 1 in 29
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 May 20 – Jun 10 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 28 – Aug 15 1 in 283
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 13 – Jun 25 1 in 24
3 Fram Reykjavik 2 May 30 – Jun 10 1 in 13
4 KA Akureyri 3 Jul 4 – Jul 21 1 in 10
5 Vidir Gardur 4 Jun 30 – Jul 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 8 Jul 28 – Sep 14 1 in 95
2 Breidablik 6 May 20 – Jun 25 1 in 35
3 Fram Reykjavik 12 Jun 14 – Aug 18 1 in 21
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Jul 4 – Jul 31 1 in 20
5 Stjarnan 4 Jul 1 – Jul 21 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 28 – Aug 15 1 in 25
2 Breidablik 7 Jun 25 – Jul 31 1 in 22
3 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jul 5 – Aug 1 1 in 20
4 Stjarnan 5 Jun 9 – Jul 1 1 in 17
5 Vidir Gardur 10 May 20 – Jul 22 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vikingur Reykjavik 1357 37 +40 13 7.6 +5.4
Fram Reykjavik 1457 37 +7 10 9.7 +0.3
KR Reykjavik 1409 28 +5 7 8.6 -1.6
Valur Reykjavik 1359 26 +16 9 8.5 +0.5
Breidablik 1274 26 -11 6 5.8 +0.2
KA Akureyri 1288 25 +11 10 6.3 +3.7
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1300 24 -4 7 6.2 +0.8
FH Hafnarfjordur 1269 22 -25 4 6.6 -2.6
Stjarnan 1295 18 -26 2 6.8 -4.8
Vidir Gardur 1144 9 -12 3 3.8 -0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IV KA KR STJ VR VG VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
2.70
0-2-0
1.60
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.30
1-1-0
3.56
1-0-1
2.75
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.88
 —
0-0-2
1.66
0-2-0
2.25
0-0-2
2.85
1-1-0
1.74
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.61
1-0-1
2.96
Fram Reykjavik
0-2-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.94
 —
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.99
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.81
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
4.54
1-0-1
3.90
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.23
0-2-0
3.33
0-0-2
1.93
 —
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
4.15
0-0-2
3.50
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.73
0-1-1
1.62
0-0-2
2.21
 —
1-0-1
1.75
1-1-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.13
1-1-0
3.65
0-1-1
2.64
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.76
0-1-1
3.87
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
3.86
 —
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
4.34
1-0-1
3.90
Stjarnan
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.06
1-0-1
1.79
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
3.10
0-1-1
1.84
 —
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.77
0-0-2
2.94
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
3.01
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
3.12
 —
1-0-1
4.14
1-0-1
3.56
Vidir Gardur
0-1-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
1.12
1-0-1
1.47
0-1-1
1.94
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
1.48
 —
0-0-2
1.73
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.70
2-0-0
2.09
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
1.70
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.03
2-0-0
3.88
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +11.6
Allowed 0.72 -7.4
Differential 0.82 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%10.00%5.56%2.22%2.22%1.11%24.44%
110.00%10.00%6.67%5.00%1.11%1.11%33.89%
25.56%6.67%5.56%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.22%
32.22%5.00%3.33%1.11%0.56%—12.22%
42.22%1.11%0.56%0.56%——4.44%
5+1.11%1.11%0.56%———2.78%
Total24.44%33.89%22.22%12.22%4.44%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.09
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
211.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.50 -0.06
SD 0.92 1.29 1.59
CV 0.64 0.86 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.78 -0.33
SD 1.04 1.96 2.38
CV 0.72 1.10 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
122.22%11.11%————33.33%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.83 +0.78
SD 1.14 0.86 1.44
CV 0.71 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
35.56%—16.67%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%27.78%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.00 -0.44
SD 1.10 1.57 2.12
CV 0.70 0.79 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.28 -0.11
SD 0.99 1.02 1.41
CV 0.84 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
2——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.00 +0.89
SD 1.88 1.03 2.22
CV 0.99 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 1.36 1.20 1.83
CV 1.07 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%—11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2——11.11%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.94 0.97 2.30
CV 1.16 0.73 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—16.67%5.56%33.33%
1—11.11%22.22%16.67%—5.56%55.56%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%16.67%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.61 -1.67
SD 1.16 1.75 2.33
CV 1.23 0.67 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 1.78 1.10 2.12
CV 0.89 0.94 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1457 37 33.80 +3.20 78.0% 22 25 30 34 37 43 47
KR Reykjavik 1409 28 32.54 -4.54 21.0% 13 24 29 33 36 40 44
Valur Reykjavik 1359 26 28.37 -2.37 39.0% 15 19 25 28 32 36 44
Vikingur Reykjavik 1357 37 23.05 +13.95 99.0% 13 14 20 22 27 31 39
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1300 24 26.25 -2.25 36.0% 12 19 22 26 29 35 39
Stjarnan 1295 18 25.68 -7.68 13.0% 15 16 21 26 29 35 39
KA Akureyri 1288 25 22.60 +2.40 70.0% 11 13 18 22 26 31 41
Breidablik 1274 26 23.10 +2.90 71.0% 6 12 19 23 27 33 36
FH Hafnarfjordur 1269 22 22.00 +0.00 51.0% 10 12 19 22 26 31 38
Vidir Gardur 1144 9 15.06 -6.06 15.0% 4 6 11 15 18 25 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
41.11%20.00%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
1%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 8th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.39 * Some Luck: 4.39 to 6.59 * Lucky: 6.59 to 8.78 * Wild Swing: 8.78 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.42 * Close: 1.42 to 2.12 * Off: 2.12 to 2.83 * Way Off: 2.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.89 * A Surprise: 0.89 to 1.42 * Several Surprises: 1.42 to 1.96 * Many Surprises: 1.96 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.88 points
Some Luck
05.4914
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.774
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.00%
Stjarnan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 86.46
1.43
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.19
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1800.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik1.00%2.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%14.00%14.00%19.00%10.00%8.00%
Fram Reykjavik38.00%29.00%15.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%——
KR Reykjavik38.00%27.00%14.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%—
Valur Reykjavik10.00%15.00%16.00%13.00%17.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%—
Breidablik3.00%4.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%16.00%11.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%
KA Akureyri3.00%2.00%8.00%11.00%6.00%9.00%23.00%14.00%15.00%9.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar3.00%11.00%9.00%16.00%18.00%15.00%10.00%11.00%6.00%1.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur1.00%3.00%5.00%6.00%6.00%21.00%11.00%19.00%17.00%11.00%
Stjarnan3.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%20.00%7.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%5.00%
Vidir Gardur——1.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%4.00%26.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
KR Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
Valur Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 93.00% 7.00%
Stjarnan 88.00% 12.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 82.00% 18.00%
Breidablik 77.00% 23.00%
KA Akureyri 76.00% 24.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 72.00% 28.00%
Vidir Gardur 17.00% 83.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1991-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-449.6 1281 1255 44.20% 21.13% 34.67%+0.20 -10.1 0
1991-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-249.6 1255 1281 34.67% 21.13% 44.20%-0.20 +10.1 3
1991-05-20 Breidablik D 3-365.4 1434 1265 61.79% 19.12% 19.09%+1.06 -1.0 1
1991-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 3-365.4 1265 1434 19.09% 19.12% 61.79%-1.06 +1.0 1
1991-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-349.5 1283 1357 30.52% 20.90% 48.58%-0.40 -4.6 0
1991-05-20 @ KA Akureyri W 3-249.5 1357 1283 48.58% 20.90% 30.52%+0.40 +4.6 3
1991-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 0-336.4 1320 1358 35.15% 21.14% 43.71%-0.18 -15.8 0
1991-05-20 @ Stjarnan W 3-036.4 1358 1320 43.71% 21.14% 35.15%+0.18 +15.8 3
1991-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-429.5 1205 1392 18.90% 19.07% 62.04%-1.07 -11.9 0
1991-05-20 @ Vidir Gardur W 4-029.5 1392 1205 62.04% 19.07% 18.90%+1.07 +11.9 3
1991-05-30 Vidir Gardur W 2-032.0 1362 1193 61.74% 19.13% 19.13%+1.06 +6.3 6
1991-05-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-232.0 1193 1362 19.13% 19.13% 61.74%-1.06 -6.3 0
1991-05-30 Fram Reykjavik W 1-047.9 1304 1433 24.33% 20.20% 55.47%-0.72 +8.4 3
1991-05-30 @ Stjarnan L 0-147.9 1433 1304 55.47% 20.20% 24.33%+0.72 -8.4 1
1991-05-30 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-037.5 1374 1265 54.99% 20.26% 24.75%+0.70 +4.3 6
1991-05-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-137.5 1265 1374 24.75% 20.26% 54.99%-0.70 -4.3 3
1991-05-31 KA Akureyri W 2-038.9 1266 1278 38.65% 21.21% 40.14%-0.03 +12.1 4
1991-05-31 @ Breidablik L 0-238.9 1278 1266 40.14% 21.21% 38.65%+0.03 -12.1 0
1991-05-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-051.3 1404 1271 57.76% 19.86% 22.38%+0.84 -1.4 4
1991-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-051.3 1271 1404 22.38% 19.86% 57.76%-0.84 +1.4 1
1991-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-154.8 1272 1368 27.94% 20.67% 51.39%-0.53 +0.8 2
1991-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-154.8 1368 1272 51.39% 20.67% 27.94%+0.53 -0.8 7
1991-06-08 Breidablik L 1-242.9 1187 1278 28.44% 20.72% 50.85%-0.50 -4.6 0
1991-06-08 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-142.9 1278 1187 50.85% 20.72% 28.44%+0.50 +4.6 7
1991-06-09 Stjarnan W 1-043.4 1266 1313 34.03% 21.10% 44.87%-0.23 +7.0 3
1991-06-09 @ KA Akureyri L 0-143.4 1313 1266 44.87% 21.10% 34.03%+0.23 -7.0 3
1991-06-09 KR Reykjavik L 1-437.3 1261 1402 23.03% 19.98% 56.99%-0.80 -9.2 3
1991-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-137.3 1402 1261 56.99% 19.98% 23.03%+0.80 +9.3 7
1991-06-10 Valur Reykjavik L 0-146.8 1424 1378 46.92% 21.00% 32.08%+0.32 -7.3 1
1991-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-046.8 1378 1424 32.08% 21.00% 46.92%-0.32 +7.3 9
1991-06-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-040.9 1282 1273 41.78% 21.19% 37.03%+0.10 +6.0 10
1991-06-12 @ Breidablik L 0-140.9 1273 1282 37.03% 21.19% 41.78%-0.10 -6.0 2
1991-06-12 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-349.1 1367 1252 55.76% 20.16% 24.08%+0.74 -13.8 7
1991-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-149.1 1252 1367 24.08% 20.16% 55.76%-0.74 +13.8 6
1991-06-13 Vidir Gardur D 1-154.2 1306 1182 56.76% 20.02% 23.23%+0.79 -1.2 4
1991-06-13 @ Stjarnan D 1-154.2 1182 1306 23.23% 20.02% 56.76%-0.79 +1.2 1
1991-06-13 KR Reykjavik L 0-338.8 1386 1411 36.85% 21.19% 41.97%-0.11 -16.4 9
1991-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-038.8 1411 1386 41.97% 21.19% 36.85%+0.11 +16.4 10
1991-06-14 KA Akureyri W 2-141.9 1417 1273 59.02% 19.65% 21.33%+0.91 +3.5 4
1991-06-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-241.9 1273 1417 21.33% 19.65% 59.02%-0.91 -3.5 3
1991-06-19 Stjarnan W 2-040.0 1267 1305 35.25% 21.15% 43.60%-0.18 +12.9 5
1991-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-240.0 1305 1267 43.60% 21.15% 35.25%+0.18 -12.9 4
1991-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-040.8 1428 1353 50.71% 20.73% 28.56%+0.49 +4.9 13
1991-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.8 1353 1428 28.56% 20.73% 50.71%-0.49 -4.9 7
1991-06-19 Fram Reykjavik L 1-238.7 1183 1421 15.12% 17.84% 67.04%-1.38 -2.5 1
1991-06-19 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-138.7 1421 1183 67.04% 17.84% 15.12%+1.38 +2.5 7
1991-06-20 Valur Reykjavik W 1-045.8 1270 1369 27.49% 20.62% 51.89%-0.55 +8.0 6
1991-06-20 @ KA Akureyri L 0-145.8 1369 1270 51.89% 20.62% 27.49%+0.55 -8.0 9
1991-06-20 Breidablik L 0-238.0 1265 1288 37.26% 21.19% 41.55%-0.09 -11.4 6
1991-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-038.0 1288 1265 41.55% 21.19% 37.26%+0.09 +11.4 13
1991-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik L 3-456.5 1292 1254 45.77% 21.06% 33.16%+0.27 -6.2 4
1991-06-24 @ Stjarnan W 4-356.5 1254 1292 33.16% 21.06% 45.77%-0.27 +6.2 9
1991-06-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-156.1 1300 1433 23.86% 20.12% 56.02%-0.75 +1.1 14
1991-06-25 @ Breidablik D 1-156.1 1433 1300 56.02% 20.12% 23.86%+0.75 -1.1 14
1991-06-25 Vidir Gardur D 1-153.9 1278 1181 53.56% 20.44% 26.00%+0.63 -1.0 7
1991-06-25 @ KA Akureyri D 1-153.9 1181 1278 26.00% 20.44% 53.56%-0.63 +0.9 2
1991-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-248.9 1361 1348 42.34% 21.18% 36.48%+0.12 -6.3 9
1991-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-148.9 1348 1361 36.48% 21.18% 42.34%-0.12 +6.3 10
1991-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-142.1 1423 1280 58.94% 19.66% 21.40%+0.90 +3.5 10
1991-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-242.1 1280 1423 21.40% 19.66% 58.94%-0.90 -3.5 5
1991-06-30 KA Akureyri L 0-239.0 1277 1277 40.47% 21.21% 38.32%+0.04 -12.2 5
1991-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-039.0 1277 1277 38.32% 21.21% 40.47%-0.04 +12.2 10
1991-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-337.7 1182 1355 20.04% 19.36% 60.60%-0.99 -5.7 2
1991-06-30 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-137.7 1355 1182 60.60% 19.36% 20.04%+0.99 +5.8 12
1991-06-30 Fram Reykjavik L 0-233.6 1260 1427 20.67% 19.51% 59.82%-0.95 -6.8 9
1991-06-30 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-033.6 1427 1260 59.82% 19.51% 20.67%+0.95 +6.8 13
1991-07-01 Breidablik W 3-249.9 1355 1301 47.98% 20.94% 31.08%+0.37 +4.7 13
1991-07-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-349.9 1301 1355 31.08% 20.94% 47.98%-0.37 -4.7 14
1991-07-01 Stjarnan D 1-156.0 1432 1285 59.30% 19.60% 21.10%+0.92 -1.4 15
1991-07-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-156.0 1285 1432 21.10% 19.60% 59.30%-0.92 +1.4 5
1991-07-04 KR Reykjavik W 1-045.8 1433 1430 40.97% 21.20% 37.83%+0.07 +6.1 16
1991-07-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-145.8 1430 1433 37.83% 21.20% 40.97%-0.07 -6.1 15
1991-07-04 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-143.4 1289 1253 45.50% 21.08% 33.42%+0.26 -7.1 10
1991-07-04 @ KA Akureyri W 1-043.4 1253 1289 33.42% 21.08% 45.50%-0.26 +7.1 12
1991-07-04 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-242.9 1176 1264 28.73% 20.75% 50.52%-0.49 -4.6 2
1991-07-04 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-142.9 1264 1176 50.52% 20.75% 28.73%+0.49 +4.6 8
1991-07-05 Breidablik D 2-260.3 1361 1296 49.40% 20.84% 29.76%+0.43 -0.5 13
1991-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-260.3 1296 1361 29.76% 20.84% 49.40%-0.43 +0.5 15
1991-07-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-255.0 1287 1359 30.68% 20.91% 48.41%-0.39 +6.7 8
1991-07-06 @ Stjarnan L 2-355.0 1359 1287 48.41% 20.91% 30.68%+0.39 -6.7 13
1991-07-12 Valur Reykjavik W 3-147.9 1269 1360 28.44% 20.72% 50.84%-0.50 +12.8 11
1991-07-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-347.9 1360 1269 50.84% 20.72% 28.44%+0.50 -12.8 13
1991-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.2 1353 1440 28.93% 20.77% 50.30%-0.47 -4.9 13
1991-07-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-041.2 1440 1353 50.30% 20.77% 28.93%+0.47 +4.9 19
1991-07-14 Stjarnan L 0-239.4 1297 1293 40.95% 21.20% 37.85%+0.07 -12.3 15
1991-07-14 @ Breidablik W 2-039.4 1293 1297 37.85% 21.20% 40.95%-0.07 +12.3 11
1991-07-14 KA Akureyri W 1-037.1 1424 1282 58.85% 19.68% 21.47%+0.90 +3.8 18
1991-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-137.1 1282 1424 21.47% 19.68% 58.85%-0.90 -3.8 10
1991-07-14 Vidir Gardur W 3-139.7 1261 1171 52.58% 20.55% 26.87%+0.58 +7.5 15
1991-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-339.7 1171 1261 26.87% 20.55% 52.58%-0.58 -7.5 2
1991-07-21 KA Akureyri W 3-034.0 1348 1278 50.04% 20.79% 29.17%+0.46 +13.5 16
1991-07-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-334.0 1278 1348 29.17% 20.79% 50.04%-0.46 -13.5 10
1991-07-21 Stjarnan D 2-260.2 1347 1306 46.33% 21.04% 32.63%+0.30 -0.3 14
1991-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1306 1347 32.63% 21.04% 46.33%-0.30 +0.3 12
1991-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-141.3 1268 1282 38.53% 21.21% 40.26%-0.04 -6.2 15
1991-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.3 1282 1268 40.26% 21.21% 38.53%+0.04 +6.2 14
1991-07-22 Fram Reykjavik D 1-156.2 1284 1444 21.23% 19.63% 59.14%-0.91 +1.3 16
1991-07-22 @ Breidablik D 1-156.2 1444 1284 59.14% 19.63% 21.23%+0.91 -1.4 20
1991-07-22 Vidir Gardur W 7-129.7 1428 1164 70.79% 16.69% 12.52%+1.63 +9.5 21
1991-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-729.7 1164 1428 12.52% 16.69% 70.79%-1.63 -9.5 2
1991-07-28 KR Reykjavik W 2-045.4 1288 1437 22.26% 19.84% 57.91%-0.85 +16.5 17
1991-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-245.4 1437 1288 57.91% 19.84% 22.26%+0.85 -16.5 21
1991-07-28 Breidablik W 3-144.7 1265 1286 37.51% 21.20% 41.30%-0.08 +10.7 13
1991-07-28 @ KA Akureyri L 1-344.7 1286 1265 41.30% 21.20% 37.51%+0.08 -10.7 16
1991-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-251.2 1154 1361 17.30% 18.60% 64.10%-1.19 +19.2 5
1991-07-28 @ Vidir Gardur L 2-551.2 1361 1154 64.10% 18.60% 17.30%+1.19 -19.2 16
1991-07-28 Valur Reykjavik W 1-045.0 1262 1347 29.14% 20.78% 50.08%-0.46 +7.7 18
1991-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-145.0 1347 1262 50.08% 20.78% 29.14%+0.46 -7.7 14
1991-07-29 Stjarnan W 1-037.9 1443 1306 58.28% 19.78% 21.95%+0.87 +3.8 23
1991-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.9 1306 1443 21.95% 19.78% 58.28%-0.87 -3.8 12
1991-07-31 Vidir Gardur D 0-049.8 1275 1173 54.08% 20.38% 25.54%+0.65 -1.1 17
1991-07-31 @ Breidablik D 0-049.8 1173 1275 25.54% 20.38% 54.08%-0.65 +1.1 6
1991-07-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-260.2 1342 1305 45.75% 21.06% 33.18%+0.27 -0.3 17
1991-07-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-260.2 1305 1342 33.18% 21.06% 45.75%-0.27 +0.3 18
1991-07-31 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-253.4 1421 1270 59.86% 19.50% 20.64%+0.95 -8.5 21
1991-07-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-153.4 1270 1421 20.64% 19.50% 59.86%-0.95 +8.5 21
1991-08-01 KA Akureyri D 1-154.2 1302 1275 44.30% 21.12% 34.58%+0.21 -0.3 13
1991-08-01 @ Stjarnan D 1-154.2 1275 1302 34.58% 21.12% 44.30%-0.21 +0.3 14
1991-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-140.2 1339 1447 26.56% 20.51% 52.93%-0.60 -4.6 14
1991-08-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-040.2 1447 1339 52.93% 20.51% 26.56%+0.60 +4.6 26
1991-08-11 Breidablik L 1-345.9 1305 1274 44.88% 21.10% 34.02%+0.23 -11.5 18
1991-08-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-145.9 1274 1305 34.02% 21.10% 44.88%-0.23 +11.5 20
1991-08-11 Fram Reykjavik D 1-156.2 1276 1452 19.83% 19.31% 60.86%-1.01 +1.5 15
1991-08-11 @ KA Akureyri D 1-156.2 1452 1276 60.86% 19.31% 19.83%+1.01 -1.5 27
1991-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 0-146.9 1412 1335 51.06% 20.70% 28.24%+0.51 -7.9 21
1991-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-046.9 1335 1412 28.24% 20.70% 51.06%-0.51 +7.8 17
1991-08-11 Stjarnan L 0-531.2 1175 1302 24.43% 20.22% 55.35%-0.72 -18.6 6
1991-08-11 @ Vidir Gardur W 5-031.2 1302 1175 55.35% 20.22% 24.43%+0.72 +18.6 16
1991-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-039.6 1278 1342 31.80% 20.99% 47.21%-0.33 +38.4 24
1991-08-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-639.6 1342 1278 47.21% 20.99% 31.80%+0.33 -38.4 17
1991-08-14 Vidir Gardur W 4-026.2 1450 1156 73.24% 15.82% 10.94%+1.81 +6.8 30
1991-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-426.2 1156 1450 10.94% 15.82% 73.24%-1.81 -6.8 6
1991-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.9 1321 1293 44.34% 21.12% 34.54%+0.21 -0.2 17
1991-08-14 @ Stjarnan D 2-259.9 1293 1321 34.54% 21.12% 44.34%-0.21 +0.2 19
1991-08-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-245.9 1285 1317 36.09% 21.17% 42.74%-0.14 -5.6 20
1991-08-15 @ Breidablik W 2-145.9 1317 1285 42.74% 21.17% 36.09%+0.14 +5.6 27
1991-08-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-256.7 1303 1404 27.29% 20.60% 52.11%-0.56 +7.1 20
1991-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-356.7 1404 1303 52.11% 20.60% 27.29%+0.56 -7.1 21
1991-08-15 KA Akureyri W 3-141.5 1343 1277 49.52% 20.83% 29.65%+0.44 +8.2 20
1991-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-341.5 1277 1343 29.65% 20.83% 49.52%-0.44 -8.2 15
1991-08-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-340.1 1294 1457 20.96% 19.57% 59.48%-0.93 -6.0 19
1991-08-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-140.1 1457 1294 59.48% 19.57% 20.96%+0.93 +6.0 33
1991-08-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-148.8 1310 1351 34.84% 21.13% 44.03%-0.20 +6.5 23
1991-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-248.8 1351 1310 44.03% 21.13% 34.84%+0.20 -6.5 20
1991-08-19 Breidablik W 4-032.0 1397 1280 56.01% 20.12% 23.86%+0.75 +14.8 24
1991-08-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-432.0 1280 1397 23.86% 20.12% 56.01%-0.75 -14.8 20
1991-08-19 KA Akureyri L 1-241.7 1149 1269 25.23% 20.33% 54.44%-0.67 -4.1 6
1991-08-19 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-141.7 1269 1149 54.44% 20.33% 25.23%+0.67 +4.1 18
1991-08-20 Stjarnan W 4-141.9 1322 1320 40.75% 21.20% 38.05%+0.06 +14.2 30
1991-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-441.9 1320 1322 38.05% 21.20% 40.75%-0.06 -14.2 17
1991-08-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.7 1265 1317 33.29% 21.07% 45.64%-0.27 +6.7 23
1991-08-31 @ Breidablik L 1-248.7 1317 1265 45.64% 21.07% 33.29%+0.27 -6.7 23
1991-08-31 KR Reykjavik L 0-139.1 1306 1412 26.75% 20.53% 52.72%-0.59 -4.6 17
1991-08-31 @ Stjarnan W 1-039.1 1412 1306 52.72% 20.53% 26.75%+0.59 +4.6 27
1991-08-31 Vidir Gardur L 0-245.2 1344 1145 64.87% 18.41% 16.72%+1.24 -18.3 20
1991-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-045.2 1145 1344 16.72% 18.41% 64.87%-1.24 +18.3 9
1991-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-246.6 1463 1336 57.07% 19.97% 22.96%+0.80 -16.3 33
1991-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-046.6 1336 1463 22.96% 19.97% 57.07%-0.80 +16.3 33
1991-09-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-147.0 1273 1288 38.42% 21.21% 40.38%-0.04 +6.1 21
1991-09-01 @ KA Akureyri L 1-247.0 1288 1273 40.38% 21.21% 38.42%+0.04 -6.1 19
1991-09-07 Vidir Gardur W 4-030.6 1282 1163 56.10% 20.11% 23.79%+0.76 +14.8 22
1991-09-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-430.6 1163 1282 23.79% 20.11% 56.10%-0.76 -14.8 9
1991-09-07 Stjarnan D 1-154.4 1310 1302 41.74% 21.19% 37.07%+0.10 -0.2 24
1991-09-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-154.4 1302 1310 37.07% 21.19% 41.74%-0.10 +0.2 18
1991-09-07 KA Akureyri D 0-050.6 1353 1279 50.55% 20.74% 28.70%+0.49 -0.8 34
1991-09-07 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-050.6 1279 1353 28.70% 20.74% 50.55%-0.49 +0.8 22
1991-09-08 Valur Reykjavik L 2-350.0 1272 1326 32.99% 21.05% 45.96%-0.28 -4.9 23
1991-09-08 @ Breidablik W 3-250.0 1326 1272 45.96% 21.05% 32.99%+0.28 +4.9 23
1991-09-08 Fram Reykjavik D 2-264.1 1417 1446 36.27% 21.17% 42.55%-0.13 +0.1 28
1991-09-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-264.1 1446 1417 42.55% 21.17% 36.27%+0.13 -0.2 34
1991-09-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-033.1 1446 1310 58.19% 19.79% 22.02%+0.86 +10.5 37
1991-09-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-333.1 1310 1446 22.02% 19.79% 58.19%-0.86 -10.5 24
1991-09-14 KR Reykjavik W 3-257.7 1280 1417 23.48% 20.06% 56.46%-0.77 +7.7 25
1991-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 2-357.7 1417 1280 56.46% 20.06% 23.48%+0.77 -7.7 28
1991-09-14 Breidablik L 0-143.5 1302 1267 45.42% 21.08% 33.51%+0.26 -7.1 18
1991-09-14 @ Stjarnan W 1-043.5 1267 1302 33.51% 21.08% 45.42%-0.26 +7.1 26
1991-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 8-137.5 1331 1296 45.36% 21.08% 33.56%+0.25 +27.7 26
1991-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-837.5 1296 1331 33.56% 21.08% 45.36%-0.25 -27.7 22
1991-09-14 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-336.6 1149 1352 17.59% 18.69% 63.72%-1.17 -5.1 9
1991-09-14 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-136.6 1352 1149 63.72% 18.69% 17.59%+1.17 +5.1 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-08-31 16.72% Vidir Gardur 1145 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1344 0
2 1991-07-28 17.30% @ Vidir Gardur 1154 5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1361 2
3 1991-07-31 20.64% Vikingur Reykjavik 1270 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1421 1
4 1991-07-28 22.26% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1288 2 KR Reykjavik 1437 0
5 1991-09-01 22.96% Vikingur Reykjavik 1336 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1463 0
6 1991-09-14 23.48% @ KA Akureyri 1280 3 KR Reykjavik 1417 2
7 1991-06-12 24.08% Vikingur Reykjavik 1252 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1367 1
8 1991-05-30 24.33% @ Stjarnan 1304 1 Fram Reykjavik 1433 0
9 1991-08-15 27.29% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 3 KR Reykjavik 1404 2
10 1991-06-20 27.49% @ KA Akureyri 1270 1 Valur Reykjavik 1369 0
11 1991-08-11 28.24% Valur Reykjavik 1335 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1412 0
12 1991-07-12 28.44% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1269 3 Valur Reykjavik 1360 1
13 1991-07-28 29.14% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1262 1 Valur Reykjavik 1347 0
14 1991-07-06 30.68% @ Stjarnan 1287 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1359 2
15 1991-08-12 31.80% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1278 6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1342 0
16 1991-06-10 32.08% Valur Reykjavik 1378 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1424 0
17 1991-06-24 33.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 1254 4 @ Stjarnan 1292 3
18 1991-08-31 33.29% @ Breidablik 1265 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1317 1
19 1991-07-04 33.42% Vikingur Reykjavik 1253 1 @ KA Akureyri 1289 0
20 1991-09-14 33.51% Breidablik 1267 1 @ Stjarnan 1302 0
21 1991-08-11 34.02% Breidablik 1274 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1305 1
22 1991-06-09 34.03% @ KA Akureyri 1266 1 Stjarnan 1313 0
23 1991-05-20 34.67% Vikingur Reykjavik 1255 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1281 2
24 1991-08-19 34.84% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1310 2 Valur Reykjavik 1351 1
25 1991-06-19 35.25% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1267 2 Stjarnan 1305 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-08-12 38.41 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1278 31.80% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1342 47.21% 20.99%
2 1991-09-14 27.74 @ Valur Reykjavik 8 1331 45.36% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1296 33.56% 21.08%
3 1991-07-28 19.21 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1154 17.30% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1361 64.10% 18.60%
4 1991-08-11 18.65 Stjarnan 5 1302 55.35% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1175 24.43% 20.22%
5 1991-08-31 18.30 Vidir Gardur 2 1145 16.72% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1344 64.87% 18.41%
6 1991-07-28 16.53 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1288 22.26% KR Reykjavik 0 1437 57.91% 19.84%
7 1991-06-13 16.43 KR Reykjavik 3 1411 41.97% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1386 36.85% 21.19%
8 1991-09-01 16.32 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1336 22.96% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1463 57.07% 19.97%
9 1991-05-20 15.81 Valur Reykjavik 3 1358 43.71% @ Stjarnan 0 1320 35.15% 21.14%
10 1991-08-19 14.82 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1397 56.01% Breidablik 0 1280 23.86% 20.12%
11 1991-09-07 14.77 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1282 56.10% Vidir Gardur 0 1163 23.79% 20.11%
12 1991-08-20 14.21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1322 40.75% Stjarnan 1 1320 38.05% 21.20%
13 1991-06-12 13.84 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1252 24.08% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1367 55.76% 20.16%
14 1991-07-21 13.53 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1348 50.04% KA Akureyri 0 1278 29.17% 20.79%
15 1991-06-19 12.94 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1267 35.25% Stjarnan 0 1305 43.60% 21.15%
16 1991-07-12 12.77 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1269 28.44% Valur Reykjavik 1 1360 50.84% 20.72%
17 1991-07-14 12.30 Stjarnan 2 1293 37.85% @ Breidablik 0 1297 40.95% 21.20%
18 1991-06-30 12.19 KA Akureyri 2 1277 38.32% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1277 40.47% 21.21%
19 1991-05-31 12.11 @ Breidablik 2 1266 38.65% KA Akureyri 0 1278 40.14% 21.21%
20 1991-05-20 11.90 KR Reykjavik 4 1392 62.04% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1205 18.90% 19.07%
21 1991-08-11 11.48 Breidablik 3 1274 34.02% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1305 44.88% 21.10%
22 1991-06-20 11.42 Breidablik 2 1288 41.55% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1265 37.26% 21.19%
23 1991-07-28 10.72 @ KA Akureyri 3 1265 37.51% Breidablik 1 1286 41.30% 21.20%
24 1991-09-14 10.53 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1446 58.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1310 22.02% 19.79%
25 1991-05-20 10.13 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1255 34.67% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1281 44.20% 21.13%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-05-20 65.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1434 61.79% Breidablik 3 1265 19.09% 19.12%
2 1991-09-08 64.1 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1417 36.27% Fram Reykjavik 2 1446 42.55% 21.17%
3 1991-07-05 60.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1361 49.40% Breidablik 2 1296 29.76% 20.84%
4 1991-07-21 60.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1347 46.33% Stjarnan 2 1306 32.63% 21.04%
5 1991-07-31 60.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1342 45.75% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1305 33.18% 21.06%
6 1991-08-14 59.9 @ Stjarnan 2 1321 44.34% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1293 34.54% 21.12%
7 1991-09-14 57.7 @ KA Akureyri 3 1280 23.48% KR Reykjavik 2 1417 56.46% 20.06%
8 1991-08-15 56.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1303 27.29% KR Reykjavik 2 1404 52.11% 20.60%
9 1991-06-24 56.5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1254 33.16% @ Stjarnan 3 1292 45.77% 21.06%
10 1991-07-22 56.2 @ Breidablik 1 1284 21.23% Fram Reykjavik 1 1444 59.14% 19.63%
11 1991-08-11 56.2 @ KA Akureyri 1 1276 19.83% Fram Reykjavik 1 1452 60.86% 19.31%
12 1991-06-25 56.1 @ Breidablik 1 1300 23.86% KR Reykjavik 1 1433 56.02% 20.12%
13 1991-07-01 56.0 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1432 59.30% Stjarnan 1 1285 21.10% 19.60%
14 1991-07-06 55.0 @ Stjarnan 3 1287 30.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1359 48.41% 20.91%
15 1991-06-08 54.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1272 27.94% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1368 51.39% 20.67%
16 1991-09-07 54.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1310 41.74% Stjarnan 1 1302 37.07% 21.19%
17 1991-06-13 54.2 @ Stjarnan 1 1306 56.76% Vidir Gardur 1 1182 23.23% 20.02%
18 1991-08-01 54.2 @ Stjarnan 1 1302 44.30% KA Akureyri 1 1275 34.58% 21.12%
19 1991-06-25 53.9 @ KA Akureyri 1 1278 53.56% Vidir Gardur 1 1181 26.00% 20.44%
20 1991-07-31 53.4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1270 20.64% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1421 59.86% 19.50%
21 1991-05-31 51.3 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1404 57.76% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1271 22.38% 19.86%
22 1991-07-28 51.2 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1154 17.30% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1361 64.10% 18.60%
23 1991-09-07 50.6 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1353 50.55% KA Akureyri 0 1279 28.70% 20.74%
24 1991-09-08 50.0 Valur Reykjavik 3 1326 45.96% @ Breidablik 2 1272 32.99% 21.05%
25 1991-07-01 49.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1355 47.98% Breidablik 2 1301 31.08% 20.94%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-08-14 26.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1450 73.24% Vidir Gardur 0 1156 10.94% 15.82%
2 1991-05-20 29.5 KR Reykjavik 4 1392 62.04% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1205 18.90% 19.07%
3 1991-07-22 29.7 @ KR Reykjavik 7 1428 70.79% Vidir Gardur 1 1164 12.52% 16.69%
4 1991-09-07 30.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1282 56.10% Vidir Gardur 0 1163 23.79% 20.11%
5 1991-08-11 31.2 Stjarnan 5 1302 55.35% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1175 24.43% 20.22%
6 1991-05-30 32.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1362 61.74% Vidir Gardur 0 1193 19.13% 19.13%
7 1991-08-19 32.0 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1397 56.01% Breidablik 0 1280 23.86% 20.12%
8 1991-09-14 33.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1446 58.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1310 22.02% 19.79%
9 1991-06-30 33.6 Fram Reykjavik 2 1427 59.82% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1260 20.67% 19.51%
10 1991-07-21 34.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1348 50.04% KA Akureyri 0 1278 29.17% 20.79%
11 1991-05-20 36.4 Valur Reykjavik 3 1358 43.71% @ Stjarnan 0 1320 35.15% 21.14%
12 1991-09-14 36.6 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1352 63.72% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1149 17.59% 18.69%
13 1991-07-14 37.1 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1424 58.85% KA Akureyri 0 1282 21.47% 19.68%
14 1991-06-09 37.3 KR Reykjavik 4 1402 56.99% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1261 23.03% 19.98%
15 1991-05-30 37.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1374 54.99% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1265 24.75% 20.26%
16 1991-09-14 37.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 8 1331 45.36% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1296 33.56% 21.08%
17 1991-06-30 37.7 Valur Reykjavik 3 1355 60.60% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1182 20.04% 19.36%
18 1991-07-29 37.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1443 58.28% Stjarnan 0 1306 21.95% 19.78%
19 1991-06-20 38.0 Breidablik 2 1288 41.55% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1265 37.26% 21.19%
20 1991-06-19 38.7 Fram Reykjavik 2 1421 67.04% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1183 15.12% 17.84%
21 1991-06-13 38.8 KR Reykjavik 3 1411 41.97% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1386 36.85% 21.19%
22 1991-05-31 38.9 @ Breidablik 2 1266 38.65% KA Akureyri 0 1278 40.14% 21.21%
23 1991-06-30 39.0 KA Akureyri 2 1277 38.32% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1277 40.47% 21.21%
24 1991-08-31 39.1 KR Reykjavik 1 1412 52.72% @ Stjarnan 0 1306 26.75% 20.53%
25 1991-07-14 39.4 Stjarnan 2 1293 37.85% @ Breidablik 0 1297 40.95% 21.20%