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1990 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

38 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1988.0

Relegated

IA Akranes

11 pts

Thor Akureyri · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

13.57 points above expected

37 points · 23.43 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

9.22 points below expected

11 points · 20.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 18 12 2 4 38 39 16 +23 35.60 +2.40
2 KR Reykjavik 18 12 2 4 38 31 17 +14 30.21 +7.79
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 11 4 3 37 39 32 +7 23.43 +13.57
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 10 3 5 33 29 21 +8 32.78 +0.22
5 Stjarnan 18 8 2 8 26 25 27 -2 22.34 +3.66
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 7 2 9 23 24 29 -5 23.94 -0.94
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 4 7 7 19 17 24 -7 24.12 -5.12
8 KA Akureyri 18 5 1 12 16 18 28 -10 24.32 -8.32
9 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 13 24 -11 18.08 -3.08
10 IA Akranes Relegated 18 3 2 13 11 19 36 -17 20.22 -9.22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 37 23.43 +13.57
2 KR Reykjavik 38 30.21 +7.79
3 Stjarnan 26 22.34 +3.66
4 Fram Reykjavik 38 35.60 +2.40
5 Valur Reykjavik 33 32.78 +0.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 11 20.22 -9.22
2 KA Akureyri 16 24.32 -8.32
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 24.12 -5.12
4 Thor Akureyri 15 18.08 -3.08
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 23 23.94 -0.94

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 4 Aug 12 – Sep 1 1 in 46
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 22 – Aug 20 1 in 16
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Aug 20 – Sep 15 1 in 16
4 Thor Akureyri 2 Sep 8 – Sep 15 1 in 14
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Jun 18 – Jun 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 18 – Jul 3 1 in 171
2 IA Akranes 8 Jul 2 – Aug 20 1 in 118
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Aug 15 – Sep 15 1 in 51
4 KA Akureyri 4 May 20 – Jun 7 1 in 27
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 5 – Jun 19 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 8 Jun 18 – Aug 10 1 in 128
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 Jun 19 – Aug 11 1 in 119
3 Stjarnan 4 Aug 12 – Sep 1 1 in 11
4 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jul 22 – Sep 15 1 in 10
5 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 2 – Aug 9 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 18 – Jul 3 1 in 25
2 IA Akranes 8 Jul 2 – Aug 20 1 in 15
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jul 2 – Jul 27 1 in 14
4 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 11 – Sep 1 1 in 12
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 5 – Jun 19 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Fram Reykjavik 1352 38 +93 13 9.5 +3.5
KR Reykjavik 1277 38 +55 12 8.6 +3.4
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1223 37 +73 12 7.8 +4.2
Valur Reykjavik 1215 33 -27 7 8.5 -1.5
Stjarnan 1148 26 +27 9 7.0 +2.0
FH Hafnarfjordur 1074 23 -13 7 6.1 +0.9
Vikingur Reykjavik 1022 19 -129 0 6.4 -6.4
KA Akureyri 1070 16 -88 3 7.0 -4.0
Thor Akureyri 1027 15 +44 7 4.9 +2.1
IA Akranes 984 11 -35 3 5.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR IA IV KA KR STJ TA VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-1-0
1.44
2-0-0
3.27
0-0-2
2.97
1-0-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.34
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
3.70
0-0-2
1.90
0-1-1
2.96
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
4.24
—
2-0-0
3.83
1-0-1
3.77
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.98
1-1-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
4.20
IA Akranes
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
1.85
—
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
3.06
0-0-2
2.00
0-1-1
2.42
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
2.70
1-0-1
1.91
2-0-0
3.29
—
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.07
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.10
1-1-0
2.95
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
2.95
—
0-0-2
1.94
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
3.84
0-0-2
2.35
2-0-0
2.75
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-2
2.19
2-0-0
3.89
0-1-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.73
—
2-0-0
3.23
2-0-0
4.03
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
3.35
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.91
1-0-1
1.70
1-1-0
3.15
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.44
—
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
1.62
1-0-1
2.88
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
1.28
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
2.47
2-0-0
1.83
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
2.66
—
0-1-1
1.30
1-1-0
2.18
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-2
2.54
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
3.31
0-0-2
4.06
1-1-0
4.39
—
0-2-0
3.82
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
1.48
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
2.72
0-0-2
2.92
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
3.49
0-2-0
1.86
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +10.5
Allowed 0.34 -9.5
Differential 0.91 +7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%11.11%6.67%2.22%2.78%—27.22%
111.11%5.56%8.89%3.33%1.11%1.11%31.11%
26.67%8.89%5.56%2.22%1.11%—24.44%
32.22%3.33%2.22%—1.67%—9.44%
42.78%1.11%1.11%1.67%——6.67%
5+—1.11%————1.11%
Total27.22%31.11%24.44%9.44%6.67%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.82
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
111.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.61 -0.28
SD 1.28 1.04 1.78
CV 0.96 0.64 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
122.22%—5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
416.67%—————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total55.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.89 +1.28
SD 1.62 1.23 2.02
CV 0.75 1.39 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%22.22%—5.56%—38.89%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%44.44%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.00 -0.94
SD 1.06 1.14 1.39
CV 1.00 0.57 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
111.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
25.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
3———————
45.56%—5.56%16.67%——27.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.78 +0.39
SD 1.29 1.44 1.85
CV 0.60 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
15.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.56 -0.56
SD 1.19 1.20 1.95
CV 1.19 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
216.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.94 +0.78
SD 1.07 0.87 1.52
CV 0.62 0.92 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
111.11%5.56%—11.11%—11.11%38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
311.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%—11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.09 1.89 2.25
CV 0.79 1.26 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%16.67%5.56%——55.56%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.33 -0.61
SD 1.07 0.97 1.46
CV 1.49 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
211.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.17 +0.44
SD 1.20 1.04 1.46
CV 0.74 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
111.11%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
211.11%—16.67%———27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.33 -0.39
SD 0.80 1.24 1.54
CV 0.85 0.93 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1352 38 35.60 +2.40 72.0% 22 27 32 36 39 44 47
KR Reykjavik 1277 38 30.21 +7.79 91.0% 18 20 26 30 34 39 44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1223 37 23.43 +13.57 99.0% 13 15 20 23 27 32 42
Valur Reykjavik 1215 33 32.78 +0.22 51.0% 23 24 28 33 37 41 44
Stjarnan 1148 26 22.34 +3.66 76.0% 12 14 18 22 26 31 35
FH Hafnarfjordur 1074 23 23.94 -0.94 54.0% 15 16 20 23 28 33 37
KA Akureyri 1070 16 24.32 -8.32 12.0% 12 15 20 24 28 33 37
Thor Akureyri 1027 15 18.08 -3.08 38.0% 4 8 14 17 22 28 33
Vikingur Reykjavik 1022 19 24.12 -5.12 19.0% 12 15 20 24 28 32 37
IA Akranes 984 11 20.22 -9.22 5.0% 7 11 17 20 23 27 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
43.33%15.56%41.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
207 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.3 * Some Luck: 4.3 to 6.45 * Lucky: 6.45 to 8.6 * Wild Swing: 8.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.4 * Close: 1.4 to 2.1 * Off: 2.1 to 2.8 * Way Off: 2.8 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.06 * A Surprise: 1.06 to 1.7 * Several Surprises: 1.7 to 2.33 * Many Surprises: 2.33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.74 points
Lucky
05.3813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.754
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
IA Akranes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 123.31
1.75
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.57
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.28
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Upset-Prone
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Shaky Favorites
0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.131
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Fram Reykjavik53.00%25.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%———
KR Reykjavik11.00%22.00%22.00%20.00%9.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.00%3.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%15.00%10.00%13.00%18.00%4.00%
Valur Reykjavik30.00%24.00%17.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%1.00%———
Stjarnan1.00%3.00%4.00%12.00%14.00%12.00%17.00%11.00%13.00%13.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur2.00%4.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%9.00%13.00%8.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—8.00%10.00%9.00%16.00%13.00%12.00%14.00%12.00%6.00%
KA Akureyri2.00%9.00%8.00%14.00%10.00%17.00%12.00%12.00%8.00%8.00%
Thor Akureyri——3.00%3.00%6.00%6.00%9.00%16.00%16.00%41.00%
IA Akranes—2.00%1.00%5.00%10.00%8.00%16.00%21.00%17.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
KR Reykjavik 97.00% 3.00%
KA Akureyri 84.00% 16.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 82.00% 18.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 79.00% 21.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 78.00% 22.00%
Stjarnan 74.00% 26.00%
IA Akranes 63.00% 37.00%
Thor Akureyri 43.00% 57.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1990-05-19 Fram Reykjavik L 0-429.8 1088 1191 29.05% 16.37% 54.58%-0.46 -40.6 0
1990-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-029.8 1191 1088 54.58% 16.37% 29.05%+0.46 +40.6 3
1990-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-143.6 1146 1097 49.75% 16.45% 33.80%+0.28 +12.2 3
1990-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-243.6 1097 1146 33.80% 16.45% 49.75%-0.28 -12.2 0
1990-05-19 Stjarnan L 0-236.8 1103 1104 42.79% 16.50% 40.72%+0.03 -29.8 0
1990-05-19 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-036.8 1104 1103 40.72% 16.50% 42.79%-0.03 +29.8 3
1990-05-20 KA Akureyri W 1-042.2 1142 1186 36.64% 16.48% 46.88%-0.18 +17.1 3
1990-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-142.2 1186 1142 46.88% 16.48% 36.64%+0.18 -17.1 0
1990-05-20 IA Akranes W 1-038.4 1191 1143 49.54% 16.46% 34.01%+0.27 +13.0 3
1990-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-138.4 1143 1191 34.01% 16.46% 49.54%-0.27 -13.0 0
1990-05-24 IA Akranes W 4-029.3 1232 1130 56.34% 16.33% 27.32%+0.53 +38.5 6
1990-05-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-429.3 1130 1232 27.32% 16.33% 56.34%-0.53 -38.5 0
1990-05-24 Thor Akureyri W 2-037.2 1048 1073 39.20% 16.49% 44.31%-0.09 +30.7 3
1990-05-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-237.2 1073 1048 44.31% 16.49% 39.20%+0.09 -30.7 0
1990-05-24 KR Reykjavik L 1-341.5 1134 1159 39.29% 16.49% 44.22%-0.08 -24.0 3
1990-05-24 @ Stjarnan W 3-141.5 1159 1134 44.22% 16.49% 39.29%+0.08 +24.0 6
1990-05-25 KA Akureyri W 2-034.8 1204 1169 47.72% 16.47% 35.81%+0.21 +25.7 6
1990-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-234.8 1169 1204 35.81% 16.47% 47.72%-0.21 -25.6 0
1990-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-039.3 1084 1159 32.51% 16.44% 51.06%-0.33 +34.8 3
1990-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-239.3 1159 1084 51.06% 16.44% 32.51%+0.33 -34.8 3
1990-06-02 Stjarnan W 5-136.6 1125 1110 45.01% 16.49% 38.50%+0.11 +43.1 6
1990-06-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-536.6 1110 1125 38.50% 16.49% 45.01%-0.11 -43.1 3
1990-06-02 KA Akureyri W 2-147.9 1091 1144 35.52% 16.47% 48.01%-0.22 +16.5 3
1990-06-02 @ IA Akranes L 1-247.9 1144 1091 48.01% 16.47% 35.52%+0.22 -16.5 0
1990-06-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-145.0 1183 1079 56.60% 16.33% 27.07%+0.54 -20.3 6
1990-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-045.0 1079 1183 27.07% 16.33% 56.60%-0.54 +20.3 6
1990-06-02 Fram Reykjavik D 0-052.2 1043 1270 16.57% 15.85% 67.58%-1.06 +5.0 1
1990-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-052.2 1270 1043 67.58% 15.85% 16.57%+1.06 -5.0 7
1990-06-02 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-156.5 1230 1119 57.36% 16.31% 26.33%+0.57 -2.6 7
1990-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-156.5 1119 1230 26.33% 16.31% 57.36%-0.57 +2.6 4
1990-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-148.6 1099 1168 33.30% 16.45% 50.26%-0.30 +17.2 9
1990-06-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-248.6 1168 1099 50.26% 16.45% 33.30%+0.30 -17.1 6
1990-06-05 Valur Reykjavik W 2-151.8 1066 1227 22.60% 16.18% 61.22%-0.74 +20.6 6
1990-06-05 @ Stjarnan L 1-251.8 1227 1066 61.22% 16.18% 22.60%+0.74 -20.6 7
1990-06-06 KR Reykjavik L 1-241.7 1048 1162 27.65% 16.34% 56.01%-0.52 -10.2 1
1990-06-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-141.7 1162 1048 56.01% 16.34% 27.65%+0.52 +10.2 9
1990-06-06 IA Akranes D 2-262.0 1122 1108 44.83% 16.49% 38.68%+0.10 -0.4 5
1990-06-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-262.0 1108 1122 38.68% 16.49% 44.83%-0.10 +0.4 4
1990-06-07 KA Akureyri W 4-028.1 1265 1127 60.44% 16.21% 23.35%+0.71 +33.4 10
1990-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-428.1 1127 1265 23.35% 16.21% 60.44%-0.71 -33.4 0
1990-06-12 Thor Akureyri L 0-145.3 1151 1038 57.67% 16.30% 26.04%+0.59 -20.7 6
1990-06-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-045.3 1038 1151 26.04% 16.30% 57.67%-0.59 +20.7 4
1990-06-12 Stjarnan D 0-051.9 1108 1087 45.85% 16.49% 37.66%+0.14 -0.7 5
1990-06-12 @ IA Akranes D 0-051.9 1087 1108 37.66% 16.49% 45.85%-0.14 +0.7 7
1990-06-12 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-037.3 1094 1121 38.92% 16.49% 44.58%-0.10 +30.9 3
1990-06-12 @ KA Akureyri L 0-237.3 1121 1094 44.58% 16.49% 38.92%+0.10 -30.9 5
1990-06-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-136.2 1173 1299 26.31% 16.31% 57.38%-0.57 -10.4 9
1990-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-036.2 1299 1173 57.38% 16.31% 26.31%+0.57 +10.4 13
1990-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-135.2 1206 1116 54.97% 16.37% 28.67%+0.48 +25.9 10
1990-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-435.2 1116 1206 28.67% 16.37% 54.97%-0.48 -25.9 9
1990-06-18 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-148.5 1309 1091 68.13% 15.81% 16.06%+1.10 -24.3 13
1990-06-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-048.5 1091 1309 16.06% 15.81% 68.13%-1.10 +24.3 8
1990-06-19 IA Akranes W 2-146.4 1090 1108 40.36% 16.50% 43.15%-0.05 +15.0 12
1990-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-246.4 1108 1090 43.15% 16.50% 40.36%+0.05 -15.0 5
1990-06-19 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-249.5 1162 1130 47.36% 16.48% 36.16%+0.19 +12.3 12
1990-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-349.5 1130 1162 36.16% 16.48% 47.36%-0.19 -12.3 6
1990-06-19 KA Akureyri L 1-340.9 1088 1125 37.62% 16.49% 45.89%-0.14 -23.2 7
1990-06-19 @ Stjarnan W 3-140.9 1125 1088 45.89% 16.49% 37.62%+0.14 +23.2 6
1990-06-19 Valur Reykjavik L 1-239.8 1058 1232 21.26% 16.12% 62.62%-0.81 -8.1 4
1990-06-19 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-139.8 1232 1058 62.62% 16.12% 21.26%+0.81 +8.1 13
1990-06-27 Fram Reykjavik W 2-152.1 1118 1285 21.97% 16.15% 61.88%-0.77 +20.8 9
1990-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-252.1 1285 1118 61.88% 16.15% 21.97%+0.77 -20.9 13
1990-06-27 Thor Akureyri W 3-140.0 1092 1050 48.76% 16.46% 34.77%+0.24 +21.7 8
1990-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-340.0 1050 1092 34.77% 16.46% 48.76%-0.24 -21.7 4
1990-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-156.4 1148 1105 48.82% 16.46% 34.72%+0.24 -1.2 7
1990-06-27 @ KA Akureyri D 1-156.4 1105 1148 34.72% 16.46% 48.82%-0.24 +1.2 13
1990-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-143.2 1240 1174 51.89% 16.42% 31.69%+0.36 +11.5 16
1990-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-243.2 1174 1240 31.69% 16.42% 51.89%-0.36 -11.5 12
1990-06-29 Stjarnan W 1-038.2 1115 1065 49.82% 16.45% 33.73%+0.28 +12.9 11
1990-06-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-138.2 1065 1115 33.73% 16.45% 49.82%-0.28 -12.9 7
1990-07-02 Valur Reykjavik L 0-136.5 1139 1252 27.78% 16.35% 55.87%-0.51 -10.9 9
1990-07-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-036.5 1252 1139 55.87% 16.35% 27.78%+0.51 +10.9 19
1990-07-02 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-262.0 1106 1128 39.77% 16.50% 43.74%-0.07 +0.2 14
1990-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-262.0 1128 1106 43.74% 16.50% 39.77%+0.07 -0.2 12
1990-07-02 IA Akranes W 2-034.1 1163 1114 49.61% 16.46% 33.94%+0.27 +24.5 15
1990-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-234.1 1114 1163 33.94% 16.46% 49.61%-0.27 -24.5 8
1990-07-02 KA Akureyri W 2-150.4 1028 1147 27.21% 16.33% 56.45%-0.54 +19.1 7
1990-07-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-250.4 1147 1028 56.45% 16.33% 27.21%+0.54 -19.1 7
1990-07-03 Stjarnan L 1-349.8 1264 1052 67.59% 15.85% 16.56%+1.06 -39.4 13
1990-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-149.8 1052 1264 16.56% 15.85% 67.59%-1.06 +39.4 10
1990-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-349.9 1090 1128 37.47% 16.49% 46.05%-0.15 -12.6 8
1990-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 3-249.9 1128 1090 46.05% 16.49% 37.47%+0.15 +12.6 12
1990-07-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-138.5 1128 1187 34.52% 16.46% 49.02%-0.25 -13.2 7
1990-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 1-038.5 1187 1128 49.02% 16.46% 34.52%+0.25 +13.2 18
1990-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-156.3 1091 1106 40.66% 16.50% 42.84%-0.04 +0.2 11
1990-07-10 @ Stjarnan D 1-156.3 1106 1091 42.84% 16.50% 40.66%+0.04 -0.2 15
1990-07-10 Fram Reykjavik L 1-248.3 1263 1224 48.23% 16.47% 35.30%+0.22 -16.5 19
1990-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-148.3 1224 1263 35.30% 16.47% 48.23%-0.22 +16.5 16
1990-07-11 Thor Akureyri D 0-051.9 1128 1048 53.67% 16.39% 29.93%+0.43 -2.2 13
1990-07-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-051.9 1048 1128 29.93% 16.39% 53.67%-0.43 +2.2 8
1990-07-14 Valur Reykjavik L 2-345.1 1077 1246 21.73% 16.14% 62.12%-0.78 -7.8 8
1990-07-14 @ IA Akranes W 3-245.1 1246 1077 62.12% 16.14% 21.73%+0.78 +7.8 22
1990-07-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-156.4 1125 1201 32.50% 16.44% 51.06%-0.33 +1.5 14
1990-07-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-156.4 1201 1125 51.06% 16.44% 32.50%+0.33 -1.5 19
1990-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-459.4 1241 1106 60.09% 16.22% 23.69%+0.69 -18.8 16
1990-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-359.4 1106 1241 23.69% 16.22% 60.09%-0.69 +18.8 18
1990-07-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-034.4 1114 1140 39.16% 16.49% 44.35%-0.09 +58.3 10
1990-07-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-434.4 1140 1114 44.35% 16.49% 39.16%+0.09 -58.3 12
1990-07-16 Thor Akureyri W 3-031.9 1091 1050 48.65% 16.47% 34.88%+0.24 +36.4 14
1990-07-16 @ Stjarnan L 0-331.9 1050 1091 34.88% 16.47% 48.65%-0.24 -36.4 8
1990-07-22 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-156.3 1082 1127 36.53% 16.48% 46.99%-0.18 +0.9 13
1990-07-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-156.3 1127 1082 46.99% 16.48% 36.53%+0.18 -0.9 15
1990-07-22 Fram Reykjavik L 0-230.9 1069 1222 23.39% 16.21% 60.40%-0.70 -17.6 8
1990-07-22 @ IA Akranes W 2-030.9 1222 1069 60.40% 16.21% 23.39%+0.70 +17.6 19
1990-07-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-137.8 1173 1254 31.69% 16.42% 51.89%-0.36 -12.2 10
1990-07-22 @ KA Akureyri W 1-037.8 1254 1173 51.89% 16.42% 31.69%+0.36 +12.2 25
1990-07-23 Stjarnan W 1-037.4 1199 1128 52.56% 16.41% 31.03%+0.38 +12.0 22
1990-07-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-137.4 1128 1199 31.03% 16.41% 52.56%-0.38 -12.0 14
1990-07-26 Thor Akureyri W 1-032.5 1240 1013 68.78% 15.77% 15.45%+1.13 +6.4 22
1990-07-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-132.5 1013 1240 15.45% 15.77% 68.78%-1.13 -6.4 8
1990-07-26 KR Reykjavik D 2-262.1 1125 1211 31.12% 16.41% 52.47%-0.38 +1.3 19
1990-07-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-262.1 1211 1125 52.47% 16.41% 31.12%+0.38 -1.3 23
1990-07-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-142.3 1116 1083 47.46% 16.48% 36.07%+0.20 -17.3 14
1990-07-26 @ Stjarnan W 1-042.3 1083 1116 36.07% 16.48% 47.46%-0.20 +17.3 16
1990-07-27 IA Akranes W 2-141.4 1160 1052 57.17% 16.31% 26.51%+0.56 +9.9 13
1990-07-27 @ KA Akureyri L 1-241.4 1052 1160 26.51% 16.31% 57.17%-0.56 -9.9 8
1990-07-27 Valur Reykjavik D 2-262.3 1126 1266 24.73% 16.26% 59.01%-0.64 +2.2 16
1990-07-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-262.3 1266 1126 59.01% 16.26% 24.73%+0.64 -2.2 26
1990-07-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-136.1 1007 1126 27.08% 16.33% 56.59%-0.54 -10.7 8
1990-07-30 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-036.1 1126 1007 56.59% 16.33% 27.08%+0.54 +10.7 22
1990-08-09 Thor Akureyri W 2-028.7 1210 996 67.70% 15.84% 16.46%+1.07 +12.8 26
1990-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-228.7 996 1210 16.46% 15.84% 67.70%-1.07 -12.8 8
1990-08-10 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-233.2 1042 1128 31.05% 16.41% 52.54%-0.38 -22.7 8
1990-08-10 @ IA Akranes W 2-033.2 1128 1042 52.54% 16.41% 31.05%+0.38 +22.7 19
1990-08-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.8 1100 1137 37.63% 16.49% 45.88%-0.14 -13.4 16
1990-08-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-144.8 1137 1100 45.88% 16.49% 37.63%+0.14 +13.4 25
1990-08-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-138.0 1170 1246 32.40% 16.43% 51.16%-0.33 -12.5 13
1990-08-12 @ KA Akureyri W 1-038.0 1246 1170 51.16% 16.43% 32.40%+0.33 +12.5 25
1990-08-12 Stjarnan L 0-147.1 1264 1098 63.33% 16.09% 20.58%+0.84 -22.6 26
1990-08-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-047.1 1098 1264 20.58% 16.09% 63.33%-0.84 +22.6 17
1990-08-15 KA Akureyri L 0-140.7 1151 1158 41.86% 16.50% 41.64%+0.00 -15.5 19
1990-08-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-040.7 1158 1151 41.64% 16.50% 41.86%+0.00 +15.5 16
1990-08-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-032.5 1259 1222 47.93% 16.47% 35.60%+0.21 +37.1 28
1990-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-332.5 1222 1259 35.60% 16.47% 47.93%-0.21 -37.1 26
1990-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 2-442.9 1150 1242 30.46% 16.40% 53.14%-0.40 -17.3 25
1990-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-242.9 1242 1150 53.14% 16.40% 30.46%+0.40 +17.3 29
1990-08-16 IA Akranes W 2-032.1 1121 1019 56.36% 16.33% 27.30%+0.53 +20.3 20
1990-08-16 @ Stjarnan L 0-232.1 1019 1121 27.30% 16.33% 56.36%-0.53 -20.3 8
1990-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-242.1 983 1087 28.98% 16.37% 54.64%-0.46 -10.7 8
1990-08-17 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-142.1 1087 983 54.64% 16.37% 28.98%+0.46 +10.7 19
1990-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-338.9 1097 1185 30.88% 16.41% 52.71%-0.39 -19.5 19
1990-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-138.9 1185 1097 52.71% 16.41% 30.88%+0.39 +19.5 29
1990-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-448.9 999 1133 25.39% 16.28% 58.33%-0.61 -8.8 8
1990-08-20 @ IA Akranes W 4-348.9 1133 999 58.33% 16.28% 25.39%+0.61 +8.8 28
1990-08-20 Stjarnan L 0-335.7 1173 1141 47.35% 16.48% 36.17%+0.19 -47.2 16
1990-08-20 @ KA Akureyri W 3-035.7 1141 1173 36.17% 16.48% 47.35%-0.19 +47.2 23
1990-08-20 Fram Reykjavik L 0-135.0 1135 1296 22.63% 16.18% 61.19%-0.74 -9.1 19
1990-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-035.0 1296 1135 61.19% 16.18% 22.63%+0.74 +9.1 31
1990-08-21 Thor Akureyri D 0-052.3 1259 973 73.12% 15.36% 11.52%+1.42 -6.2 30
1990-08-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-052.3 973 1259 11.52% 15.36% 73.12%-1.42 +6.2 9
1990-08-31 Valur Reykjavik W 3-035.9 1205 1253 36.12% 16.48% 47.40%-0.19 +47.3 32
1990-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-335.9 1253 1205 47.40% 16.48% 36.12%+0.19 -47.3 30
1990-09-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-262.4 1305 1078 68.81% 15.76% 15.42%+1.14 -3.5 32
1990-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-262.4 1078 1305 15.42% 15.76% 68.81%-1.14 +3.5 20
1990-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-037.8 1189 1126 51.40% 16.43% 32.17%+0.34 +12.4 26
1990-09-01 @ Stjarnan L 0-137.8 1126 1189 32.17% 16.43% 51.40%-0.34 -12.4 19
1990-09-01 IA Akranes L 0-140.4 979 990 41.28% 16.50% 42.22%-0.02 -15.3 9
1990-09-01 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-040.4 990 979 42.22% 16.50% 41.28%+0.02 +15.3 11
1990-09-02 KA Akureyri W 4-245.2 1142 1126 45.09% 16.49% 38.42%+0.11 +21.1 31
1990-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-445.2 1126 1142 38.42% 16.49% 45.09%-0.11 -21.1 16
1990-09-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-334.0 1005 1252 15.08% 15.73% 69.18%-1.16 -10.2 11
1990-09-08 @ IA Akranes W 3-134.0 1252 1005 69.18% 15.73% 15.08%+1.16 +10.2 35
1990-09-08 Thor Akureyri L 1-251.6 1105 964 60.81% 16.20% 22.99%+0.72 -20.5 16
1990-09-08 @ KA Akureyri W 2-151.6 964 1105 22.99% 16.20% 60.81%-0.72 +20.5 12
1990-09-08 Fram Reykjavik L 1-633.8 1201 1301 29.34% 16.38% 54.28%-0.45 -41.8 26
1990-09-08 @ Stjarnan W 6-133.8 1301 1201 54.28% 16.38% 29.34%+0.45 +41.8 35
1990-09-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-031.4 1206 1081 58.91% 16.26% 24.83%+0.64 +18.6 33
1990-09-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-231.4 1081 1206 24.83% 16.26% 58.91%-0.64 -18.6 20
1990-09-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-431.9 1114 1163 35.95% 16.48% 47.57%-0.20 -48.8 19
1990-09-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-031.9 1163 1114 47.57% 16.48% 35.95%+0.20 +48.8 34
1990-09-15 IA Akranes W 2-142.9 1063 995 52.11% 16.42% 31.47%+0.37 +11.5 23
1990-09-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-242.9 995 1063 31.47% 16.42% 52.11%-0.37 -11.5 11
1990-09-15 Valur Reykjavik W 3-246.9 1343 1224 58.34% 16.28% 25.38%+0.61 +9.0 38
1990-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-346.9 1224 1343 25.38% 16.28% 58.34%-0.61 -9.0 33
1990-09-15 Stjarnan W 4-351.5 1212 1159 50.13% 16.45% 33.42%+0.29 +11.2 37
1990-09-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-451.5 1159 1212 33.42% 16.45% 50.13%-0.29 -11.2 26
1990-09-15 KA Akureyri W 2-029.7 1262 1085 64.50% 16.03% 19.47%+0.90 +14.9 38
1990-09-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-229.7 1085 1262 19.47% 16.03% 64.50%-0.90 -14.9 16
1990-09-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-142.0 984 1065 31.76% 16.43% 51.82%-0.35 +43.2 15
1990-09-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-442.0 1065 984 51.82% 16.43% 31.76%+0.35 -43.2 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1990-06-18 16.06% Vikingur Reykjavik 1091 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1309 0
2 1990-07-03 16.56% Stjarnan 1052 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1264 1
3 1990-08-12 20.58% Stjarnan 1098 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1264 0
4 1990-06-27 21.97% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1118 2 Fram Reykjavik 1285 1
5 1990-06-05 22.60% @ Stjarnan 1066 2 Valur Reykjavik 1227 1
6 1990-09-08 22.99% Thor Akureyri 964 2 @ KA Akureyri 1105 1
7 1990-07-16 23.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1106 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1241 3
8 1990-06-12 26.04% Thor Akureyri 1038 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1151 0
9 1990-06-02 27.07% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1079 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1183 0
10 1990-07-02 27.21% @ Thor Akureyri 1028 2 KA Akureyri 1147 1
11 1990-09-15 31.76% @ Thor Akureyri 984 4 Vikingur Reykjavik 1065 1
12 1990-05-25 32.51% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1084 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1159 0
13 1990-06-05 33.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1099 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1168 1
14 1990-07-10 35.30% Fram Reykjavik 1224 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1263 1
15 1990-06-02 35.52% @ IA Akranes 1091 2 KA Akureyri 1144 1
16 1990-07-26 36.07% FH Hafnarfjordur 1083 1 @ Stjarnan 1116 0
17 1990-08-31 36.12% @ KR Reykjavik 1205 3 Valur Reykjavik 1253 0
18 1990-08-20 36.17% Stjarnan 1141 3 @ KA Akureyri 1173 0
19 1990-05-20 36.64% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1142 1 KA Akureyri 1186 0
20 1990-06-12 38.92% @ KA Akureyri 1094 2 Vikingur Reykjavik 1121 0
21 1990-07-16 39.16% @ KA Akureyri 1114 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1140 0
22 1990-05-24 39.20% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1048 2 Thor Akureyri 1073 0
23 1990-06-19 40.36% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1090 2 IA Akranes 1108 1
24 1990-05-19 40.72% Stjarnan 1104 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1103 0
25 1990-08-15 41.64% KA Akureyri 1158 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1151 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-07-16 58.29 @ KA Akureyri 4 1114 39.16% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1140 44.35% 16.49%
2 1990-09-08 48.83 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1163 47.57% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1114 35.95% 16.48%
3 1990-08-31 47.27 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1205 36.12% Valur Reykjavik 0 1253 47.40% 16.48%
4 1990-08-20 47.23 Stjarnan 3 1141 36.17% @ KA Akureyri 0 1173 47.35% 16.48%
5 1990-09-15 43.17 @ Thor Akureyri 4 984 31.76% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1065 51.82% 16.43%
6 1990-06-02 43.12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1125 45.01% Stjarnan 1 1110 38.50% 16.49%
7 1990-09-08 41.80 Fram Reykjavik 6 1301 54.28% @ Stjarnan 1 1201 29.34% 16.38%
8 1990-05-19 40.60 Fram Reykjavik 4 1191 54.58% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1088 29.05% 16.37%
9 1990-07-03 39.44 Stjarnan 3 1052 16.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1264 67.59% 15.85%
10 1990-05-24 38.47 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1232 56.34% IA Akranes 0 1130 27.32% 16.33%
11 1990-08-16 37.06 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1259 47.93% KR Reykjavik 0 1222 35.60% 16.47%
12 1990-07-16 36.42 @ Stjarnan 3 1091 48.65% Thor Akureyri 0 1050 34.88% 16.47%
13 1990-05-25 34.78 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1084 32.51% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1159 51.06% 16.44%
14 1990-06-07 33.43 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1265 60.44% KA Akureyri 0 1127 23.35% 16.21%
15 1990-06-12 30.86 @ KA Akureyri 2 1094 38.92% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1121 44.58% 16.49%
16 1990-05-24 30.70 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1048 39.20% Thor Akureyri 0 1073 44.31% 16.49%
17 1990-05-19 29.80 Stjarnan 2 1104 40.72% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1103 42.79% 16.50%
18 1990-06-15 25.91 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1206 54.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1116 28.67% 16.37%
19 1990-05-25 25.65 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1204 47.72% KA Akureyri 0 1169 35.81% 16.47%
20 1990-07-02 24.49 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1163 49.61% IA Akranes 0 1114 33.94% 16.46%
21 1990-06-18 24.34 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1091 16.06% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1309 68.13% 15.81%
22 1990-05-24 24.02 KR Reykjavik 3 1159 44.22% @ Stjarnan 1 1134 39.29% 16.49%
23 1990-06-19 23.16 KA Akureyri 3 1125 45.89% @ Stjarnan 1 1088 37.62% 16.49%
24 1990-08-10 22.68 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1128 52.54% @ IA Akranes 0 1042 31.05% 16.41%
25 1990-08-12 22.63 Stjarnan 1 1098 20.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1264 63.33% 16.09%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-09-01 62.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1305 68.81% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1078 15.42% 15.76%
2 1990-07-27 62.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1126 24.73% Valur Reykjavik 2 1266 59.01% 16.26%
3 1990-07-26 62.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1125 31.12% KR Reykjavik 2 1211 52.47% 16.41%
4 1990-06-06 62.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1122 44.83% IA Akranes 2 1108 38.68% 16.49%
5 1990-07-02 62.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1106 39.77% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1128 43.74% 16.50%
6 1990-07-16 59.4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1106 23.69% @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1241 60.09% 16.22%
7 1990-06-02 56.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1230 57.36% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1119 26.33% 16.31%
8 1990-06-27 56.4 @ KA Akureyri 1 1148 48.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1105 34.72% 16.46%
9 1990-07-15 56.4 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1125 32.50% KR Reykjavik 1 1201 51.06% 16.44%
10 1990-07-10 56.3 @ Stjarnan 1 1091 40.66% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1106 42.84% 16.50%
11 1990-07-22 56.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1082 36.53% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1127 46.99% 16.48%
12 1990-08-21 52.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1259 73.12% Thor Akureyri 0 973 11.52% 15.36%
13 1990-06-02 52.2 @ Thor Akureyri 0 1043 16.57% Fram Reykjavik 0 1270 67.58% 15.85%
14 1990-06-27 52.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1118 21.97% Fram Reykjavik 1 1285 61.88% 16.15%
15 1990-06-12 51.9 @ IA Akranes 0 1108 45.85% Stjarnan 0 1087 37.66% 16.49%
16 1990-07-11 51.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1128 53.67% Thor Akureyri 0 1048 29.93% 16.39%
17 1990-06-05 51.8 @ Stjarnan 2 1066 22.60% Valur Reykjavik 1 1227 61.22% 16.18%
18 1990-09-08 51.6 Thor Akureyri 2 964 22.99% @ KA Akureyri 1 1105 60.81% 16.20%
19 1990-09-15 51.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1212 50.13% Stjarnan 3 1159 33.42% 16.45%
20 1990-07-02 50.4 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1028 27.21% KA Akureyri 1 1147 56.45% 16.33%
21 1990-07-10 49.9 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1128 46.05% @ IA Akranes 2 1090 37.47% 16.49%
22 1990-07-03 49.8 Stjarnan 3 1052 16.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1264 67.59% 15.85%
23 1990-06-19 49.5 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1162 47.36% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1130 36.16% 16.48%
24 1990-08-20 48.9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1133 58.33% @ IA Akranes 3 999 25.39% 16.28%
25 1990-06-05 48.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1099 33.30% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1168 50.26% 16.45%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-06-07 28.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1265 60.44% KA Akureyri 0 1127 23.35% 16.21%
2 1990-08-09 28.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1210 67.70% Thor Akureyri 0 996 16.46% 15.84%
3 1990-05-24 29.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1232 56.34% IA Akranes 0 1130 27.32% 16.33%
4 1990-09-15 29.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1262 64.50% KA Akureyri 0 1085 19.47% 16.03%
5 1990-05-19 29.8 Fram Reykjavik 4 1191 54.58% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1088 29.05% 16.37%
6 1990-07-22 30.9 Fram Reykjavik 2 1222 60.40% @ IA Akranes 0 1069 23.39% 16.21%
7 1990-09-08 31.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1206 58.91% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1081 24.83% 16.26%
8 1990-07-16 31.9 @ Stjarnan 3 1091 48.65% Thor Akureyri 0 1050 34.88% 16.47%
9 1990-09-08 31.9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1163 47.57% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1114 35.95% 16.48%
10 1990-08-16 32.1 @ Stjarnan 2 1121 56.36% IA Akranes 0 1019 27.30% 16.33%
11 1990-07-26 32.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1240 68.78% Thor Akureyri 0 1013 15.45% 15.77%
12 1990-08-16 32.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1259 47.93% KR Reykjavik 0 1222 35.60% 16.47%
13 1990-08-10 33.2 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1128 52.54% @ IA Akranes 0 1042 31.05% 16.41%
14 1990-09-08 33.8 Fram Reykjavik 6 1301 54.28% @ Stjarnan 1 1201 29.34% 16.38%
15 1990-09-08 34.0 KR Reykjavik 3 1252 69.18% @ IA Akranes 1 1005 15.08% 15.73%
16 1990-07-02 34.1 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1163 49.61% IA Akranes 0 1114 33.94% 16.46%
17 1990-07-16 34.4 @ KA Akureyri 4 1114 39.16% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1140 44.35% 16.49%
18 1990-05-25 34.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1204 47.72% KA Akureyri 0 1169 35.81% 16.47%
19 1990-08-20 35.0 Fram Reykjavik 1 1296 61.19% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1135 22.63% 16.18%
20 1990-06-15 35.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1206 54.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1116 28.67% 16.37%
21 1990-08-20 35.7 Stjarnan 3 1141 36.17% @ KA Akureyri 0 1173 47.35% 16.48%
22 1990-08-31 35.9 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1205 36.12% Valur Reykjavik 0 1253 47.40% 16.48%
23 1990-07-30 36.1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1126 56.59% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1007 27.08% 16.33%
24 1990-06-12 36.2 Fram Reykjavik 1 1299 57.38% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1173 26.31% 16.31%
25 1990-07-02 36.5 Valur Reykjavik 1 1252 55.87% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1139 27.78% 16.35%