Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1989
‹ ›

1989 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KA Akureyri

34 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Keflavik IF

15 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

10.23 points above expected

32 points · 21.77 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valur Reykjavik

7.91 points below expected

28 points · 35.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KA Akureyri Champion 18 9 7 2 34 29 15 +14 28.43 +5.57
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 5 4 32 27 17 +10 21.77 +10.23
3 Fram Reykjavik 18 10 2 6 32 22 16 +6 35.89 -3.89
4 KR Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 28 22 +6 23.65 +5.35
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 21 15 +6 35.91 -7.91
6 IA Akranes 18 8 2 8 26 20 21 -1 27.24 -1.24
7 Thor Akureyri 18 4 6 8 18 20 30 -10 18.32 -0.32
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 24 31 -7 20.00 -3.00
9 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 2 11 17 18 31 -13 19.47 -2.47
10 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 3 6 9 15 18 29 -11 17.34 -2.34

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 32 21.77 +10.23
2 KA Akureyri 34 28.43 +5.57
3 KR Reykjavik 29 23.65 +5.35
4 Thor Akureyri 18 18.32 -0.32
5 IA Akranes 26 27.24 -1.24

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 28 35.91 -7.91
2 Fram Reykjavik 32 35.89 -3.89
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 17 20.00 -3.00
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 17 19.47 -2.47
5 Keflavik IF 15 17.34 -2.34

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 19 – Jul 2 1 in 37
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 8 – Jun 16 1 in 24
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 9 – Jun 25 1 in 16
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Aug 13 – Aug 16 1 in 16
5 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 1 – Jul 9 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 31 – Aug 28 1 in 1,191
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 29 – Sep 16 1 in 21
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 Jun 9 – Jun 25 1 in 13
4 IA Akranes 2 May 25 – Jun 3 1 in 11
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 Jul 1 – Aug 17 1 in 182
2 KA Akureyri 11 Jul 9 – Sep 16 1 in 67
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jul 24 – Aug 16 1 in 20
4 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 19 – Jul 14 1 in 18
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jul 10 – Jul 24 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 31 – Aug 28 1 in 36
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 26 – Jun 8 1 in 23
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 25 – Aug 2 1 in 16
4 Thor Akureyri 7 May 27 – Jul 10 1 in 9
5 IA Akranes 3 Jul 1 – Jul 13 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KA Akureyri 1238 34 +49 13 9.2 +3.8
FH Hafnarfjordur 1138 32 +21 9 8.1 +0.9
Fram Reykjavik 1257 32 -30 9 9.5 -0.5
KR Reykjavik 1147 29 +26 9 6.9 +2.1
Valur Reykjavik 1246 28 -31 7 8.8 -1.8
IA Akranes 1139 26 +3 6 6.9 -0.9
Thor Akureyri 1037 18 +9 6 3.9 +2.1
Fylkir Reykjavik 1027 17 +30 7 4.8 +2.2
Vikingur Reykjavik 1009 17 -57 3 5.7 -2.7
Keflavik IF 989 15 -20 4 5.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR IA KA KR KI TA VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-1-0
1.27
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
2.24
0-2-0
1.94
0-0-2
2.74
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
1.19
1-1-0
3.03
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
4.29
 —
2-0-0
4.47
1-0-1
3.75
0-0-2
3.99
1-0-1
3.87
1-1-0
4.48
1-0-1
4.48
2-0-0
2.59
2-0-0
4.31
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.10
 —
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
1.66
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
1.15
0-0-2
2.73
IA Akranes
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
1.76
2-0-0
3.25
 —
1-0-1
2.34
2-0-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.78
0-0-2
3.68
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
3.60
KA Akureyri
0-2-0
3.56
2-0-0
1.54
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.14
 —
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
4.05
0-2-0
3.76
1-1-0
2.16
1-1-0
3.56
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-1
1.64
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
2.09
 —
2-0-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
3.15
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
1.10
1-1-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
2.26
 —
0-2-0
2.59
0-2-0
1.12
2-0-0
2.21
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
1.10
0-0-2
2.89
2-0-0
1.83
0-2-0
1.76
0-1-1
1.97
0-2-0
2.89
 —
0-0-2
1.27
1-1-0
2.90
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.38
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
4.43
2-0-0
3.80
0-1-1
3.36
1-1-0
3.75
0-2-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.29
 —
1-0-1
4.42
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
2.75
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
3.28
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +12.6
Allowed 0.90 -10.0
Differential 0.94 +7.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%11.11%6.67%3.33%1.11%—30.00%
111.11%8.89%6.11%4.44%1.67%0.56%32.78%
26.67%6.11%6.67%2.78%——22.22%
33.33%4.44%2.78%1.11%——11.67%
41.11%1.67%————2.78%
5+—0.56%————0.56%
Total30.00%32.78%22.22%11.67%2.78%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.26 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.13 1.65
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.94 +0.56
SD 1.34 1.00 1.76
CV 0.89 1.06 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
122.22%5.56%—11.11%——38.89%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.89 +0.33
SD 1.11 1.08 1.78
CV 0.91 1.21 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—5.56%11.11%—44.44%
15.56%—16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.72 -0.72
SD 1.14 1.27 1.90
CV 1.14 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
122.22%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.17 -0.06
SD 0.96 1.20 1.63
CV 0.87 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%55.56%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.83 +0.78
SD 1.50 0.79 1.44
CV 0.93 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.22 +0.33
SD 1.04 1.17 1.61
CV 0.67 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
2——11.11%———11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%44.44%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.61 -0.61
SD 0.97 0.98 1.14
CV 0.97 0.61 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%33.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 0.83 1.14 1.42
CV 0.75 0.68 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.83 +0.33
SD 1.10 0.92 1.53
CV 0.94 1.11 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.19 1.27 1.79
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1257 32 35.89 -3.89 26.0% 23 27 32 36 40 43 48
Valur Reykjavik 1246 28 35.91 -7.91 8.0% 25 28 33 36 39 43 45
KA Akureyri 1238 34 28.43 +5.57 86.0% 15 20 26 28 31 37 42
KR Reykjavik 1147 29 23.65 +5.35 90.0% 13 14 20 24 27 31 35
IA Akranes 1139 26 27.24 -1.24 42.0% 13 18 24 27 30 36 40
FH Hafnarfjordur 1138 32 21.77 +10.23 99.0% 10 14 19 21 25 29 36
Thor Akureyri 1037 18 18.32 -0.32 54.0% 5 11 14 18 21 27 32
Fylkir Reykjavik 1027 17 19.47 -2.47 28.0% 2 10 16 19 23 28 31
Vikingur Reykjavik 1009 17 20.00 -3.00 31.0% 6 10 16 20 23 27 36
Keflavik IF 989 15 17.34 -2.34 36.0% 4 9 13 17 20 26 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Clear Edge
43.33%24.44%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
447 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
KA Akureyri, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.09 * Some Luck: 4.09 to 6.13 * Lucky: 6.13 to 8.17 * Wild Swing: 8.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.18 * Close: 1.18 to 1.77 * Off: 1.77 to 2.36 * Way Off: 2.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.04 * A Surprise: 1.04 to 1.66 * Several Surprises: 1.66 to 2.29 * Many Surprises: 2.29 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.14 points
Some Luck
05.1113
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Off
01.473
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Valur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 102.64
1.30
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Notable Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.46
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.43
Overconfident
0.258931.001.74107
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.128
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KA Akureyri7.00%11.00%35.00%18.00%12.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur—2.00%2.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%20.00%13.00%13.00%5.00%
Fram Reykjavik40.00%36.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%———
KR Reykjavik1.00%3.00%11.00%17.00%20.00%15.00%8.00%14.00%7.00%4.00%
Valur Reykjavik49.00%29.00%14.00%7.00%1.00%—————
IA Akranes3.00%15.00%17.00%22.00%18.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%
Thor Akureyri—1.00%—4.00%9.00%10.00%17.00%14.00%22.00%23.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—1.00%3.00%5.00%14.00%13.00%18.00%16.00%13.00%17.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik—1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%20.00%16.00%14.00%19.00%19.00%
Keflavik IF—1.00%1.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%11.00%20.00%23.00%28.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
KA Akureyri 97.00% 3.00%
IA Akranes 96.00% 4.00%
KR Reykjavik 89.00% 11.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 82.00% 18.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 70.00% 30.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 62.00% 38.00%
Thor Akureyri 55.00% 45.00%
Keflavik IF 49.00% 51.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1989-05-21 IA Akranes L 1-341.5 1065 1150 30.71% 25.77% 43.52%-0.10 -16.0 0
1989-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-141.5 1150 1065 43.52% 25.77% 30.71%+0.10 +16.0 3
1989-05-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-038.0 1061 1018 48.04% 25.45% 26.51%+0.18 +8.7 3
1989-05-21 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-138.0 1018 1061 26.51% 25.45% 48.04%-0.18 -8.7 0
1989-05-22 KA Akureyri D 0-048.8 1016 1142 25.77% 25.37% 48.86%-0.20 +1.6 1
1989-05-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.8 1142 1016 48.86% 25.37% 25.77%+0.20 -1.6 1
1989-05-22 Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.7 1043 1303 14.15% 22.65% 63.19%-0.49 +3.7 1
1989-05-22 @ Keflavik IF D 0-049.7 1303 1043 63.19% 22.65% 14.15%+0.49 -3.7 1
1989-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-032.2 1334 1095 68.06% 21.00% 10.94%+0.62 +3.8 3
1989-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-132.2 1095 1334 10.94% 21.00% 68.06%-0.62 -3.8 0
1989-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-250.2 1047 1018 46.40% 25.59% 28.01%+0.15 -12.7 1
1989-05-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-150.2 1018 1047 28.01% 25.59% 46.40%-0.15 +12.7 4
1989-05-25 IA Akranes W 2-031.1 1299 1166 58.48% 23.87% 17.65%+0.39 +11.5 4
1989-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-231.1 1166 1299 17.65% 23.87% 58.48%-0.39 -11.5 3
1989-05-26 Fram Reykjavik W 3-149.3 1141 1338 18.75% 24.16% 57.10%-0.36 +26.3 4
1989-05-26 @ KA Akureyri L 1-349.3 1338 1141 57.10% 24.16% 18.75%+0.36 -26.3 3
1989-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-141.2 1010 1049 36.98% 25.92% 37.10%+0.00 -11.3 0
1989-05-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.2 1049 1010 37.10% 25.92% 36.98%+0.00 +11.3 3
1989-05-27 Thor Akureyri W 3-140.9 1092 1069 45.50% 25.65% 28.85%+0.14 +15.2 3
1989-05-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-340.9 1069 1092 28.85% 25.65% 45.50%-0.14 -15.2 3
1989-06-03 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-243.6 1155 998 60.74% 23.33% 15.93%+0.44 -32.1 3
1989-06-03 @ IA Akranes W 2-043.6 998 1155 15.93% 23.33% 60.74%-0.44 +32.1 3
1989-06-03 KA Akureyri D 0-048.8 1054 1167 27.27% 25.52% 47.20%-0.17 +1.4 4
1989-06-03 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-048.8 1167 1054 47.20% 25.52% 27.27%+0.17 -1.4 5
1989-06-04 Valur Reykjavik L 0-133.0 1031 1311 12.88% 22.07% 65.05%-0.54 -4.5 4
1989-06-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-033.0 1311 1031 65.05% 22.07% 12.88%+0.54 +4.5 7
1989-06-04 Keflavik IF D 1-155.7 1312 1034 71.02% 19.78% 9.19%+0.71 -4.2 4
1989-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-155.7 1034 1312 9.19% 19.78% 71.02%-0.71 +4.2 2
1989-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-260.0 1060 1107 35.91% 25.92% 38.17%-0.02 +0.1 4
1989-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-260.0 1107 1060 38.17% 25.92% 35.91%+0.02 -0.1 4
1989-06-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-044.6 1026 1308 12.81% 22.04% 65.16%-0.54 +34.2 7
1989-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-244.6 1308 1026 65.16% 22.04% 12.81%+0.54 -34.2 4
1989-06-08 Thor Akureyri D 1-153.7 1039 1055 40.17% 25.89% 33.94%+0.05 -0.4 3
1989-06-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-153.7 1055 1039 33.94% 25.89% 40.17%-0.05 +0.4 5
1989-06-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-031.0 1315 1031 71.57% 19.55% 8.89%+0.72 +3.0 10
1989-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-131.0 1031 1315 8.89% 19.55% 71.57%-0.72 -3.0 3
1989-06-09 IA Akranes L 0-142.3 1107 1122 40.33% 25.88% 33.79%+0.05 -12.0 4
1989-06-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-042.3 1122 1107 33.79% 25.88% 40.33%-0.05 +12.1 6
1989-06-09 KR Reykjavik W 4-135.0 1166 1060 55.51% 24.46% 20.03%+0.32 +15.8 8
1989-06-09 @ KA Akureyri L 1-435.0 1060 1166 20.03% 24.46% 55.51%-0.32 -15.8 4
1989-06-16 KA Akureyri W 2-037.7 1134 1182 35.85% 25.92% 38.23%-0.02 +21.8 9
1989-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-237.7 1182 1134 38.23% 25.92% 35.85%+0.02 -21.8 8
1989-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-354.0 1056 1060 41.88% 25.84% 32.29%+0.08 -11.1 5
1989-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-254.0 1060 1056 32.29% 25.84% 41.88%-0.08 +11.1 10
1989-06-18 Valur Reykjavik W 1-042.4 1274 1318 36.15% 25.92% 37.93%-0.01 +11.5 7
1989-06-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-142.4 1318 1274 37.93% 25.92% 36.15%+0.01 -11.5 10
1989-06-19 Keflavik IF W 3-033.4 1044 1038 43.33% 25.77% 30.89%+0.10 +27.0 7
1989-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-333.4 1038 1044 30.89% 25.77% 43.33%-0.10 -27.0 3
1989-06-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-036.7 1028 1095 33.07% 25.86% 41.06%-0.06 +43.7 6
1989-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-436.7 1095 1028 41.06% 25.86% 33.07%+0.06 -43.7 4
1989-06-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-336.9 1071 1071 42.47% 25.81% 31.71%+0.09 -34.4 10
1989-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-036.9 1071 1071 31.71% 25.81% 42.47%-0.09 +34.4 10
1989-06-25 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-364.0 1160 1071 53.62% 24.77% 21.61%+0.28 -1.3 9
1989-06-25 @ KA Akureyri D 3-364.0 1071 1160 21.61% 24.77% 53.62%-0.28 +1.3 7
1989-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-339.2 1011 1156 23.73% 25.11% 51.16%-0.24 -13.0 3
1989-06-25 @ Keflavik IF W 3-139.2 1156 1011 51.16% 25.11% 23.73%+0.24 +13.0 12
1989-06-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-130.9 1307 1051 69.40% 20.47% 10.13%+0.66 +8.1 13
1989-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-430.9 1051 1307 10.13% 20.47% 69.40%-0.66 -8.1 4
1989-06-26 Thor Akureyri W 2-028.0 1285 1045 68.17% 20.96% 10.87%+0.62 +7.1 10
1989-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-228.0 1045 1285 10.87% 20.96% 68.17%-0.62 -7.1 5
1989-06-29 KA Akureyri W 1-044.3 1043 1158 26.98% 25.50% 47.52%-0.17 +13.8 7
1989-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-144.3 1158 1043 47.52% 25.50% 26.98%+0.17 -13.8 9
1989-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-133.1 1038 1315 13.05% 22.16% 64.80%-0.53 -4.6 5
1989-06-30 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-033.1 1315 1038 64.80% 22.16% 13.05%+0.53 +4.6 16
1989-07-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-049.3 1169 1037 58.37% 23.89% 17.74%+0.38 -3.0 13
1989-07-01 @ IA Akranes D 0-049.3 1037 1169 17.74% 23.89% 58.37%-0.38 +3.0 11
1989-07-01 Keflavik IF L 2-356.8 1073 998 51.97% 25.01% 23.02%+0.25 -13.3 7
1989-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-256.8 998 1073 23.02% 25.01% 51.97%-0.25 +13.3 6
1989-07-02 Fram Reykjavik W 1-046.7 1106 1292 19.71% 24.39% 55.90%-0.33 +15.8 13
1989-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-146.7 1292 1106 55.90% 24.39% 19.71%+0.33 -15.8 10
1989-07-09 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-259.9 1040 1059 39.80% 25.89% 34.30%+0.04 -0.2 12
1989-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.9 1059 1040 34.30% 25.89% 39.80%-0.04 +0.2 8
1989-07-09 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-041.5 1012 1057 36.14% 25.92% 37.94%-0.01 +11.5 9
1989-07-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-141.5 1057 1012 37.94% 25.92% 36.14%+0.01 -11.5 7
1989-07-09 KA Akureyri L 0-148.3 1320 1145 62.54% 22.85% 14.62%+0.48 -17.5 16
1989-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-048.3 1145 1320 14.62% 22.85% 62.54%-0.48 +17.5 12
1989-07-10 IA Akranes W 4-135.0 1276 1166 56.03% 24.36% 19.61%+0.33 +15.6 13
1989-07-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-435.0 1166 1276 19.61% 24.36% 56.03%-0.33 -15.5 13
1989-07-10 KR Reykjavik D 2-260.0 1033 1122 30.26% 25.74% 44.00%-0.11 +0.6 6
1989-07-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-260.0 1122 1033 44.00% 25.74% 30.26%+0.11 -0.6 14
1989-07-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-437.3 1045 1040 43.24% 25.78% 30.98%+0.10 -45.6 7
1989-07-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-037.3 1040 1045 30.98% 25.78% 43.24%-0.10 +45.5 15
1989-07-13 Thor Akureyri L 1-252.9 1151 1034 56.78% 24.22% 19.00%+0.35 -15.1 13
1989-07-13 @ IA Akranes W 2-152.9 1034 1151 19.00% 24.22% 56.78%-0.35 +15.1 9
1989-07-13 Keflavik IF W 2-140.9 1162 1023 59.06% 23.74% 17.20%+0.40 +5.6 15
1989-07-13 @ KA Akureyri L 1-240.9 1023 1162 17.20% 23.74% 59.06%-0.40 -5.6 9
1989-07-13 Fram Reykjavik L 0-230.3 1060 1292 16.01% 23.36% 60.63%-0.43 -10.5 8
1989-07-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-030.3 1292 1060 60.63% 23.36% 16.01%+0.43 +10.5 16
1989-07-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-154.4 1121 1302 20.18% 24.49% 55.32%-0.32 +2.3 15
1989-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-154.4 1302 1121 55.32% 24.49% 20.18%+0.32 -2.3 17
1989-07-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-326.4 1000 1302 11.64% 21.42% 66.94%-0.59 -11.1 7
1989-07-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-026.4 1302 1000 66.94% 21.42% 11.64%+0.59 +11.1 19
1989-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-154.1 1168 1085 52.95% 24.87% 22.18%+0.27 -2.0 16
1989-07-21 @ KA Akureyri D 1-154.1 1085 1168 22.18% 24.87% 52.95%-0.27 +2.0 16
1989-07-22 KR Reykjavik W 1-039.2 1136 1123 44.15% 25.73% 30.11%+0.11 +9.7 16
1989-07-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-139.2 1123 1136 30.11% 25.73% 44.15%-0.11 -9.7 15
1989-07-23 Keflavik IF D 2-261.9 1300 1017 71.39% 19.63% 8.99%+0.72 -3.2 18
1989-07-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-261.9 1017 1300 8.99% 19.63% 71.39%-0.72 +3.2 10
1989-07-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-153.8 1049 1049 42.52% 25.81% 31.66%+0.09 -0.7 9
1989-07-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.8 1049 1049 31.66% 25.81% 42.52%-0.09 +0.7 10
1989-07-26 KA Akureyri L 1-349.9 1314 1166 59.92% 23.53% 16.54%+0.42 -27.5 19
1989-07-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-149.9 1166 1314 16.54% 23.53% 59.92%-0.42 +27.5 19
1989-07-27 Keflavik IF W 2-143.3 1087 1021 51.05% 25.13% 23.82%+0.24 +7.5 19
1989-07-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.3 1021 1087 23.82% 25.13% 51.05%-0.24 -7.5 10
1989-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 0-233.0 1145 1297 23.04% 25.01% 51.94%-0.25 -14.6 16
1989-07-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-033.0 1297 1145 51.94% 25.01% 23.04%+0.25 +14.6 21
1989-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1114 1048 50.91% 25.15% 23.95%+0.23 -1.3 16
1989-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1048 1114 23.95% 25.15% 50.91%-0.23 +1.3 10
1989-07-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-347.2 1049 989 50.37% 25.21% 24.42%+0.22 -23.6 10
1989-07-28 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-147.2 989 1049 24.42% 25.21% 50.37%-0.22 +23.6 10
1989-07-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-149.0 1311 1095 66.22% 21.68% 12.10%+0.57 -18.4 21
1989-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-049.0 1095 1311 12.10% 21.68% 66.22%-0.57 +18.4 22
1989-08-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-244.9 1012 1112 28.81% 25.65% 45.54%-0.14 -8.8 10
1989-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-144.9 1112 1012 45.54% 25.65% 28.81%+0.14 +8.8 19
1989-08-01 Thor Akureyri D 1-154.6 1193 1026 61.85% 23.04% 15.12%+0.46 -3.1 20
1989-08-01 @ KA Akureyri D 1-154.6 1026 1193 15.12% 23.04% 61.85%-0.46 +3.1 11
1989-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-133.1 1013 1286 13.33% 22.29% 64.39%-0.52 -4.7 10
1989-08-01 @ Keflavik IF W 1-033.1 1286 1013 64.39% 22.29% 13.33%+0.52 +4.7 22
1989-08-02 IA Akranes D 1-153.8 1050 1131 31.24% 25.79% 42.96%-0.09 +0.7 11
1989-08-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.8 1131 1050 42.96% 25.79% 31.24%+0.09 -0.7 17
1989-08-11 Keflavik IF D 2-260.0 1029 1008 45.24% 25.67% 29.10%+0.13 -0.7 12
1989-08-11 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-260.0 1008 1029 29.10% 25.67% 45.24%-0.13 +0.7 11
1989-08-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-035.1 1130 1003 57.78% 24.02% 18.20%+0.37 +6.3 20
1989-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-135.1 1003 1130 18.20% 24.02% 57.78%-0.37 -6.3 10
1989-08-12 KA Akureyri D 0-048.7 1121 1190 32.82% 25.85% 41.33%-0.07 +0.6 20
1989-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-048.7 1190 1121 41.33% 25.85% 32.82%+0.07 -0.6 21
1989-08-13 Valur Reykjavik W 2-154.1 1050 1293 15.28% 23.10% 61.62%-0.46 +16.3 14
1989-08-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-254.1 1293 1050 61.62% 23.10% 15.28%+0.46 -16.3 21
1989-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-049.8 1291 1113 62.78% 22.77% 14.44%+0.48 -3.6 23
1989-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-049.8 1113 1291 14.44% 22.77% 62.78%-0.48 +3.6 23
1989-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-246.1 997 1067 32.76% 25.85% 41.39%-0.07 -9.7 10
1989-08-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-146.1 1067 997 41.39% 25.85% 32.76%+0.07 +9.7 17
1989-08-17 Thor Akureyri W 3-030.3 1117 1028 53.63% 24.77% 21.60%+0.28 +20.1 26
1989-08-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-330.3 1028 1117 21.60% 24.77% 53.63%-0.28 -20.1 12
1989-08-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-340.4 1009 1122 27.34% 25.53% 47.13%-0.17 -14.6 11
1989-08-17 @ Keflavik IF W 3-140.4 1122 1009 47.13% 25.53% 27.34%+0.17 +14.6 23
1989-08-17 Fram Reykjavik L 0-239.1 1277 1287 41.06% 25.86% 33.08%+0.06 -23.0 21
1989-08-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-039.1 1287 1277 33.08% 25.86% 41.06%-0.06 +23.0 26
1989-08-18 IA Akranes W 1-037.6 1190 1136 49.47% 25.31% 25.22%+0.21 +8.4 24
1989-08-18 @ KA Akureyri L 0-137.6 1136 1190 25.22% 25.31% 49.47%-0.21 -8.4 20
1989-08-26 Keflavik IF W 1-034.9 1128 995 58.46% 23.87% 17.66%+0.38 +6.1 23
1989-08-26 @ IA Akranes L 0-134.9 995 1128 17.66% 23.87% 58.46%-0.38 -6.1 11
1989-08-27 Fram Reykjavik W 2-044.9 1008 1310 11.68% 21.44% 66.88%-0.59 +34.9 15
1989-08-27 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-244.9 1310 1008 66.88% 21.44% 11.68%+0.59 -34.9 26
1989-08-28 Valur Reykjavik W 3-150.5 987 1254 13.73% 22.47% 63.80%-0.51 +29.1 13
1989-08-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-350.5 1254 987 63.80% 22.47% 13.73%+0.51 -29.1 21
1989-08-29 KA Akureyri L 1-535.8 1076 1198 26.26% 25.42% 48.31%-0.19 -25.8 17
1989-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-135.8 1198 1076 48.31% 25.42% 26.26%+0.19 +25.8 27
1989-08-30 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-035.7 1136 1137 42.43% 25.82% 31.76%+0.09 +19.0 26
1989-08-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-235.7 1137 1136 31.76% 25.82% 42.43%-0.09 -19.0 26
1989-09-02 IA Akranes W 3-251.7 1118 1134 40.25% 25.88% 33.86%+0.05 +9.5 29
1989-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-351.7 1134 1118 33.86% 25.88% 40.25%-0.05 -9.4 23
1989-09-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-139.0 1224 1016 65.44% 21.94% 12.62%+0.55 +4.2 30
1989-09-02 @ KA Akureyri L 1-239.0 1016 1224 12.62% 21.94% 65.44%-0.55 -4.1 13
1989-09-02 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-253.6 988 1050 33.78% 25.88% 40.34%-0.05 +10.8 14
1989-09-02 @ Keflavik IF L 2-353.6 1050 988 40.34% 25.88% 33.78%+0.05 -10.8 17
1989-09-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-027.5 1225 1043 63.15% 22.67% 14.18%+0.49 +13.6 24
1989-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-327.5 1043 1225 14.18% 22.67% 63.15%-0.49 -13.6 15
1989-09-03 KR Reykjavik W 2-141.7 1275 1155 57.08% 24.16% 18.76%+0.36 +6.1 29
1989-09-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-241.7 1155 1275 18.76% 24.16% 57.08%-0.36 -6.1 26
1989-09-09 Fram Reykjavik W 2-041.8 1124 1281 22.51% 24.93% 52.56%-0.26 +28.3 26
1989-09-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-241.8 1281 1124 52.56% 24.93% 22.51%+0.26 -28.3 29
1989-09-09 Valur Reykjavik D 1-154.1 1228 1238 41.08% 25.86% 33.06%+0.06 -0.5 31
1989-09-09 @ KA Akureyri D 1-154.1 1238 1228 33.06% 25.86% 41.08%-0.06 +0.5 25
1989-09-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-246.6 1149 1029 57.06% 24.17% 18.77%+0.35 +5.8 29
1989-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-346.6 1029 1149 18.77% 24.17% 57.06%-0.35 -5.8 15
1989-09-10 Keflavik IF D 0-048.7 1012 999 44.24% 25.73% 30.03%+0.12 -1.0 14
1989-09-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-048.7 999 1012 30.03% 25.73% 44.24%-0.12 +1.0 15
1989-09-10 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-333.3 1040 1127 30.40% 25.75% 43.85%-0.11 -26.6 17
1989-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-033.3 1127 1040 43.85% 25.75% 30.40%+0.11 +26.6 32
1989-09-16 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-253.5 1154 1011 59.42% 23.66% 16.93%+0.41 -15.8 32
1989-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-153.5 1011 1154 16.93% 23.66% 59.42%-0.41 +15.8 17
1989-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-032.0 1253 1013 68.13% 20.97% 10.89%+0.62 +3.8 32
1989-09-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-132.0 1013 1253 10.89% 20.97% 68.13%-0.62 -3.8 17
1989-09-16 KA Akureyri L 0-230.3 1000 1228 16.39% 23.48% 60.13%-0.42 -10.8 15
1989-09-16 @ Keflavik IF W 2-030.3 1228 1000 60.13% 23.48% 16.39%+0.42 +10.8 34
1989-09-16 IA Akranes W 2-151.0 1024 1153 25.43% 25.33% 49.23%-0.20 +13.4 18
1989-09-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-251.0 1153 1024 49.23% 25.33% 25.43%+0.20 -13.4 26
1989-09-16 KR Reykjavik W 1-036.6 1239 1155 53.08% 24.85% 22.07%+0.27 +7.5 28
1989-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-136.6 1155 1239 22.07% 24.85% 53.08%-0.27 -7.5 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1989-08-27 11.68% @ Thor Akureyri 1008 2 Fram Reykjavik 1310 0
2 1989-07-31 12.10% FH Hafnarfjordur 1095 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1311 0
3 1989-06-08 12.81% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1026 2 Fram Reykjavik 1308 0
4 1989-08-28 13.73% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 987 3 Valur Reykjavik 1254 1
5 1989-07-09 14.62% KA Akureyri 1145 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1320 0
6 1989-08-13 15.28% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1050 2 Valur Reykjavik 1293 1
7 1989-06-03 15.93% Vikingur Reykjavik 998 2 @ IA Akranes 1155 0
8 1989-07-26 16.54% KA Akureyri 1166 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1314 1
9 1989-09-16 16.93% Fylkir Reykjavik 1011 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1154 1
10 1989-05-26 18.75% @ KA Akureyri 1141 3 Fram Reykjavik 1338 1
11 1989-07-13 19.00% Thor Akureyri 1034 2 @ IA Akranes 1151 1
12 1989-07-02 19.71% @ KR Reykjavik 1106 1 Fram Reykjavik 1292 0
13 1989-09-09 22.51% @ IA Akranes 1124 2 Fram Reykjavik 1281 0
14 1989-07-01 23.02% Keflavik IF 998 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1073 2
15 1989-07-28 24.42% Fylkir Reykjavik 989 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1049 1
16 1989-09-16 25.43% @ Thor Akureyri 1024 2 IA Akranes 1153 1
17 1989-06-29 26.98% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1043 1 KA Akureyri 1158 0
18 1989-05-25 28.01% FH Hafnarfjordur 1018 2 @ Keflavik IF 1047 1
19 1989-07-12 30.98% FH Hafnarfjordur 1040 4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1045 0
20 1989-06-25 31.71% KR Reykjavik 1071 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1071 0
21 1989-06-16 32.29% FH Hafnarfjordur 1060 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1056 2
22 1989-06-20 33.07% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1028 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1095 0
23 1989-08-17 33.08% Fram Reykjavik 1287 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1277 0
24 1989-09-02 33.78% @ Keflavik IF 988 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1050 2
25 1989-06-09 33.79% IA Akranes 1122 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1107 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1989-07-12 45.55 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1040 30.98% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1045 43.24% 25.78%
2 1989-06-20 43.72 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1028 33.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1095 41.06% 25.86%
3 1989-08-27 34.93 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1008 11.68% Fram Reykjavik 0 1310 66.88% 21.44%
4 1989-06-25 34.37 KR Reykjavik 3 1071 31.71% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1071 42.47% 25.81%
5 1989-06-08 34.17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1026 12.81% Fram Reykjavik 0 1308 65.16% 22.04%
6 1989-06-03 32.14 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 998 15.93% @ IA Akranes 0 1155 60.74% 23.33%
7 1989-08-28 29.06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 987 13.73% Valur Reykjavik 1 1254 63.80% 22.47%
8 1989-09-09 28.28 @ IA Akranes 2 1124 22.51% Fram Reykjavik 0 1281 52.56% 24.93%
9 1989-07-26 27.50 KA Akureyri 3 1166 16.54% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1314 59.92% 23.53%
10 1989-06-19 26.97 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1044 43.33% Keflavik IF 0 1038 30.89% 25.77%
11 1989-09-10 26.63 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1127 43.85% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1040 30.40% 25.75%
12 1989-05-26 26.35 @ KA Akureyri 3 1141 18.75% Fram Reykjavik 1 1338 57.10% 24.16%
13 1989-08-29 25.79 KA Akureyri 5 1198 48.31% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1076 26.26% 25.42%
14 1989-07-28 23.60 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 989 24.42% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1049 50.37% 25.21%
15 1989-08-17 23.04 Fram Reykjavik 2 1287 33.08% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1277 41.06% 25.86%
16 1989-06-16 21.82 @ IA Akranes 2 1134 35.85% KA Akureyri 0 1182 38.23% 25.92%
17 1989-08-17 20.09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1117 53.63% Thor Akureyri 0 1028 21.60% 24.77%
18 1989-08-30 18.97 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1136 42.43% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1137 31.76% 25.82%
19 1989-07-31 18.37 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1095 12.10% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1311 66.22% 21.68%
20 1989-07-09 17.49 KA Akureyri 1 1145 14.62% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1320 62.54% 22.85%
21 1989-08-13 16.27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1050 15.28% Valur Reykjavik 1 1293 61.62% 23.10%
22 1989-05-21 16.01 IA Akranes 3 1150 43.52% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1065 30.71% 25.77%
23 1989-06-09 15.85 @ KA Akureyri 4 1166 55.51% KR Reykjavik 1 1060 20.03% 24.46%
24 1989-07-02 15.83 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1106 19.71% Fram Reykjavik 0 1292 55.90% 24.39%
25 1989-09-16 15.76 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1011 16.93% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1154 59.42% 23.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1989-06-25 64.0 @ KA Akureyri 3 1160 53.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1071 21.61% 24.77%
2 1989-07-23 61.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1300 71.39% Keflavik IF 2 1017 8.99% 19.63%
3 1989-07-27 60.2 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1114 50.91% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1048 23.95% 25.15%
4 1989-06-05 60.0 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1060 35.91% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1107 38.17% 25.92%
5 1989-07-10 60.0 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1033 30.26% KR Reykjavik 2 1122 44.00% 25.74%
6 1989-08-11 60.0 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1029 45.24% Keflavik IF 2 1008 29.10% 25.67%
7 1989-07-09 59.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1040 39.80% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1059 34.30% 25.89%
8 1989-07-01 56.8 Keflavik IF 3 998 23.02% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1073 51.97% 25.01%
9 1989-06-04 55.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1312 71.02% Keflavik IF 1 1034 9.19% 19.78%
10 1989-08-01 54.6 @ KA Akureyri 1 1193 61.85% Thor Akureyri 1 1026 15.12% 23.04%
11 1989-07-14 54.4 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1121 20.18% Valur Reykjavik 1 1302 55.32% 24.49%
12 1989-07-21 54.1 @ KA Akureyri 1 1168 52.95% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1085 22.18% 24.87%
13 1989-08-13 54.1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1050 15.28% Valur Reykjavik 1 1293 61.62% 23.10%
14 1989-09-09 54.1 @ KA Akureyri 1 1228 41.08% Valur Reykjavik 1 1238 33.06% 25.86%
15 1989-06-16 54.0 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1060 32.29% @ Thor Akureyri 2 1056 41.88% 25.84%
16 1989-07-24 53.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1049 42.52% Thor Akureyri 1 1049 31.66% 25.81%
17 1989-08-02 53.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1050 31.24% IA Akranes 1 1131 42.96% 25.79%
18 1989-06-08 53.7 @ Keflavik IF 1 1039 40.17% Thor Akureyri 1 1055 33.94% 25.89%
19 1989-09-02 53.6 @ Keflavik IF 3 988 33.78% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1050 40.34% 25.88%
20 1989-09-16 53.5 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1011 16.93% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1154 59.42% 23.66%
21 1989-07-13 52.9 Thor Akureyri 2 1034 19.00% @ IA Akranes 1 1151 56.78% 24.22%
22 1989-09-02 51.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1118 40.25% IA Akranes 2 1134 33.86% 25.88%
23 1989-09-16 51.0 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1024 25.43% IA Akranes 1 1153 49.23% 25.33%
24 1989-08-28 50.5 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 987 13.73% Valur Reykjavik 1 1254 63.80% 22.47%
25 1989-05-25 50.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1018 28.01% @ Keflavik IF 1 1047 46.40% 25.59%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1989-07-21 26.4 Fram Reykjavik 3 1302 66.94% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1000 11.64% 21.42%
2 1989-09-02 27.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1225 63.15% Thor Akureyri 0 1043 14.18% 22.67%
3 1989-06-26 28.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1285 68.17% Thor Akureyri 0 1045 10.87% 20.96%
4 1989-07-13 30.3 Fram Reykjavik 2 1292 60.63% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1060 16.01% 23.36%
5 1989-08-17 30.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1117 53.63% Thor Akureyri 0 1028 21.60% 24.77%
6 1989-09-16 30.3 KA Akureyri 2 1228 60.13% @ Keflavik IF 0 1000 16.39% 23.48%
7 1989-06-25 30.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1307 69.40% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1051 10.13% 20.47%
8 1989-06-08 31.0 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1315 71.57% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1031 8.89% 19.55%
9 1989-05-25 31.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1299 58.48% IA Akranes 0 1166 17.65% 23.87%
10 1989-09-16 32.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1253 68.13% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1013 10.89% 20.97%
11 1989-05-23 32.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1334 68.06% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1095 10.94% 21.00%
12 1989-06-04 33.0 Valur Reykjavik 1 1311 65.05% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1031 12.88% 22.07%
13 1989-07-27 33.0 Valur Reykjavik 2 1297 51.94% @ IA Akranes 0 1145 23.04% 25.01%
14 1989-06-30 33.1 Valur Reykjavik 1 1315 64.80% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1038 13.05% 22.16%
15 1989-08-01 33.1 Fram Reykjavik 1 1286 64.39% @ Keflavik IF 0 1013 13.33% 22.29%
16 1989-09-10 33.3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1127 43.85% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1040 30.40% 25.75%
17 1989-06-19 33.4 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1044 43.33% Keflavik IF 0 1038 30.89% 25.77%
18 1989-08-26 34.9 @ IA Akranes 1 1128 58.46% Keflavik IF 0 995 17.66% 23.87%
19 1989-06-09 35.0 @ KA Akureyri 4 1166 55.51% KR Reykjavik 1 1060 20.03% 24.46%
20 1989-07-10 35.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1276 56.03% IA Akranes 1 1166 19.61% 24.36%
21 1989-08-12 35.1 @ IA Akranes 1 1130 57.78% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1003 18.20% 24.02%
22 1989-08-30 35.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1136 42.43% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1137 31.76% 25.82%
23 1989-08-29 35.8 KA Akureyri 5 1198 48.31% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1076 26.26% 25.42%
24 1989-09-16 36.6 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1239 53.08% KR Reykjavik 0 1155 22.07% 24.85%
25 1989-06-20 36.7 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1028 33.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1095 41.06% 25.86%