Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1988
‹ ›

1988 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

49 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1986.0

Relegated

IF Leiftur

9 pts

IF Volsungur · 9 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

9.13 points above expected

49 points · 39.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Leiftur

11.96 points below expected

9 points · 20.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 18 16 1 1 49 38 8 +30 39.87 +9.13
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 13 2 3 41 36 15 +21 33.96 +7.04
3 IA Akranes 18 9 5 4 32 32 25 +7 29.91 +2.09
4 KA Akureyri 18 8 3 7 27 31 29 +2 23.03 +3.97
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 26 25 +1 27.69 -3.69
6 Thor Akureyri 18 6 6 6 24 25 28 -3 24.67 -0.67
7 Keflavik IF 18 4 6 8 18 22 32 -10 19.68 -1.68
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 3 10 18 20 31 -11 16.20 +1.80
9 IF Leiftur Relegated 18 1 6 11 9 12 26 -14 20.96 -11.96
10 IF Volsungur Relegated 18 2 3 13 9 13 36 -23 14.64 -5.64

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1473 49 39.87 +9.13 98.7% 22 32 37 40 43 47 54
Valur Reykjavik 1411 41 33.96 +7.04 93.9% 14 26 31 34 37 42 52
IA Akranes 1150 32 29.91 +2.09 69.2% 10 21 26 30 33 38 50
KA Akureyri 1136 27 23.03 +3.97 81.6% 5 15 20 23 26 31 42
Thor Akureyri 989 24 24.67 -0.67 49.0% 7 16 21 25 28 33 45
KR Reykjavik 989 24 27.69 -3.69 26.9% 9 19 24 28 31 36 45
Keflavik IF 957 18 19.68 -1.68 41.8% 3 12 16 20 23 28 39
Vikingur Reykjavik 916 18 16.20 +1.80 69.1% 0 9 13 16 19 24 36
IF Leiftur 813 9 20.96 -11.96 0.7% 4 13 18 21 24 29 39
IF Volsungur 764 9 14.64 -5.64 12.1% 1 8 12 14 18 22 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IL IV KA KR KI TA VR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
5.00
1-0-1
5.21
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.08
1-1-0
4.52
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
5.03
IA Akranes
0-0-2
1.45
 —
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.92
0-1-1
3.84
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
4.08
1-1-0
3.36
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
4.16
IF Leiftur
0-0-2
0.61
0-1-1
2.32
 —
0-1-1
3.36
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
1.45
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
3.81
IF Volsungur
1-0-1
0.44
0-0-2
1.65
1-1-0
2.20
 —
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
1.56
0-0-2
1.18
0-1-1
2.38
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
1.11
1-1-0
1.72
1-0-1
3.40
2-0-0
4.21
 —
1-0-1
1.80
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
1.40
2-0-0
3.51
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
4.11
2-0-0
4.30
1-0-1
3.76
 —
2-0-0
3.04
0-0-2
3.28
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
3.63
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
1.09
0-1-1
1.48
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.52
 —
0-2-0
2.48
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
2.93
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
1.66
0-1-1
2.19
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
2.92
2-0-0
2.27
0-2-0
3.08
 —
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
3.68
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.61
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
4.17
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.74
 —
1-1-0
4.70
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-0-2
0.58
0-0-2
1.41
2-0-0
1.75
1-1-0
3.19
0-0-2
2.05
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.88
0-1-1
0.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +13.9
Allowed 0.77 -13.7
Differential 0.97 +7.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.78%4.44%3.33%2.22%—23.33%
17.78%12.22%8.89%7.22%0.56%—36.67%
24.44%8.89%3.33%2.78%0.56%0.56%20.56%
33.33%7.22%2.78%—1.11%—14.44%
42.22%0.56%0.56%1.11%——4.44%
5+——0.56%———0.56%
Total23.33%36.67%20.56%14.44%4.44%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.71
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
122.22%5.56%————27.78%
222.22%5.56%————27.78%
316.67%—11.11%———27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.44 +1.67
SD 1.13 0.70 1.24
CV 0.54 1.59 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%—11.11%
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%5.56%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.39 +0.39
SD 1.11 1.29 1.75
CV 0.63 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
1—22.22%27.78%5.56%——55.56%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.44 -0.78
SD 0.59 0.86 0.94
CV 0.89 0.59 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%22.22%22.22%——61.11%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%11.11%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 2.00 -1.28
SD 0.57 1.46 1.36
CV 0.80 0.73 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.61 +0.11
SD 1.07 1.24 1.60
CV 0.62 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.39 +0.06
SD 1.10 1.04 1.83
CV 0.76 0.75 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
1—27.78%5.56%22.22%——55.56%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—50.00%22.22%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.78 -0.56
SD 0.88 0.88 1.50
CV 0.72 0.49 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%55.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.56 -0.17
SD 0.98 1.20 1.29
CV 0.70 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%————27.78%
116.67%—————16.67%
2———————
35.56%27.78%5.56%———38.89%
45.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.83 +1.17
SD 1.57 0.86 1.38
CV 0.79 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—44.44%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.72 -0.61
SD 1.41 1.23 1.97
CV 1.27 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 49 39.87 +9.13
2 Valur Reykjavik 41 33.96 +7.04
3 KA Akureyri 27 23.03 +3.97
4 IA Akranes 32 29.91 +2.09
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 16.20 +1.80

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Leiftur 9 20.96 -11.96
2 IF Volsungur 9 14.64 -5.64
3 KR Reykjavik 24 27.69 -3.69
4 Keflavik IF 18 19.68 -1.68
5 Thor Akureyri 24 24.67 -0.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 11 Jun 16 – Sep 3 1 in 76
2 Valur Reykjavik 8 Jul 24 – Sep 24 1 in 24
3 IF Volsungur 1 Jul 10 – Jul 10 1 in 9
4 KR Reykjavik 3 May 19 – Jun 9 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 3 Aug 15 – Sep 3 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 7 Jun 29 – Aug 21 1 in 271
2 Fram Reykjavik 1 Sep 10 – Sep 10 1 in 93
3 IF Volsungur 6 Jul 15 – Sep 3 1 in 29
4 IA Akranes 2 Jun 29 – Jul 9 1 in 12
5 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 24 – Jul 11 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jun 4 – Jul 15 1 in 64
2 Fram Reykjavik 15 May 16 – Sep 3 1 in 12
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 8 – Jun 20 1 in 10
4 IA Akranes 7 May 15 – Jun 24 1 in 10
5 KA Akureyri 4 Jul 24 – Aug 21 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 11 Jun 29 – Sep 24 1 in 24
2 Keflavik IF 8 May 19 – Jul 11 1 in 23
3 KR Reykjavik 6 Aug 15 – Sep 24 1 in 21
4 IF Volsungur 8 May 15 – Jun 29 1 in 9
5 Thor Akureyri 6 May 21 – Jun 20 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Fram Reykjavik75.25%17.95%5.04%1.28%0.34%0.09%0.05%———
Valur Reykjavik17.05%45.06%21.31%9.90%4.04%1.73%0.66%0.18%0.05%0.02%
IA Akranes4.73%19.08%30.16%20.61%12.73%6.82%3.55%1.53%0.64%0.15%
KA Akureyri0.27%2.32%6.59%13.15%17.84%20.39%17.17%12.36%7.25%2.66%
KR Reykjavik1.94%10.17%20.87%24.66%18.62%11.36%6.71%3.74%1.50%0.43%
Thor Akureyri0.65%4.02%10.59%16.91%21.21%17.95%14.20%8.18%4.60%1.69%
Keflavik IF0.03%0.56%2.13%5.00%9.23%13.75%18.83%22.33%17.25%10.89%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.02%0.05%0.33%1.29%3.10%6.75%11.70%19.08%29.07%28.61%
IF Leiftur0.06%0.77%2.86%6.59%11.27%17.17%20.66%19.72%14.14%6.76%
IF Volsungur—0.02%0.12%0.61%1.62%3.99%6.47%12.88%25.50%48.79%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
53.33%21.11%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
258 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
099.11800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
75%
Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Comfortable
00.320.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.9 * Some Luck: 3.9 to 5.85 * Lucky: 5.85 to 7.8 * Wild Swing: 7.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.41 * Off: 1.41 to 1.88 * Way Off: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.68 * A Surprise: 0.68 to 1.09 * Several Surprises: 1.09 to 1.5 * Many Surprises: 1.5 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.90 points
Lucky
04.8812
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.172.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.66%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.70%
IF Leiftur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.03
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
78%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.55
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 99.93% 0.07%
IA Akranes 99.21% 0.79%
KR Reykjavik 98.07% 1.93%
Thor Akureyri 93.71% 6.29%
KA Akureyri 90.09% 9.91%
IF Leiftur 79.10% 20.90%
Keflavik IF 71.86% 28.14%
Vikingur Reykjavik 42.32% 57.68%
IF Volsungur 25.71% 74.29%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1988-05-15 IA Akranes D 0-0 1086 1113 49.4% 22.3% 28.3% -5.2 1
1988-05-15 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1113 1086 28.3% 22.3% 49.4% +5.2 1
1988-05-15 IF Volsungur W 3-1 1059 1009 57.9% 22.1% 20.0% +38.8 3
1988-05-15 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1009 1059 20.0% 22.1% 57.9% -38.8 0
1988-05-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1106 870 71.3% 20.9% 7.8% -11.8 1
1988-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 870 1106 7.8% 20.9% 71.3% +11.8 1
1988-05-16 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1136 1166 48.9% 22.3% 28.8% +32.2 3
1988-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1166 1136 28.8% 22.3% 48.9% -32.2 0
1988-05-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1098 1094 53.0% 22.2% 24.8% -86.7 3
1988-05-19 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1094 1098 24.8% 22.2% 53.0% +86.7 4
1988-05-20 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1081 1134 46.0% 22.4% 31.7% -3.5 2
1988-05-20 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1134 1081 31.7% 22.4% 46.0% +3.5 1
1988-05-21 IA Akranes L 1-2 970 1118 32.8% 22.4% 44.8% -33.7 0
1988-05-21 @ IF Volsungur W 2-1 1118 970 44.8% 22.4% 32.8% +33.7 4
1988-05-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1059 1168 38.2% 22.4% 39.5% -40.3 0
1988-05-21 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1168 1059 39.5% 22.4% 38.2% +40.3 6
1988-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-1 881 993 37.8% 22.4% 39.8% -40.0 1
1988-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 993 881 39.8% 22.4% 37.8% +40.0 3
1988-06-02 IF Volsungur W 3-0 1181 937 71.7% 20.9% 7.5% +26.4 7
1988-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 937 1181 7.5% 20.9% 71.7% -26.4 0
1988-06-03 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1152 1137 54.1% 22.2% 23.6% +27.4 7
1988-06-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1137 1152 23.6% 22.2% 54.1% -27.4 1
1988-06-03 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1033 1011 55.0% 22.2% 22.9% +25.1 6
1988-06-03 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1011 1033 22.9% 22.2% 55.0% -25.1 3
1988-06-03 Thor Akureyri W 4-2 1110 1019 61.7% 21.9% 16.4% +29.2 4
1988-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1019 1110 16.4% 21.9% 61.7% -29.2 0
1988-06-04 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1078 990 61.5% 21.9% 16.6% -10.6 3
1988-06-04 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 990 1078 16.6% 21.9% 61.5% +10.6 1
1988-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1208 841 76.4% 19.7% 3.9% +13.9 9
1988-06-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 841 1208 3.9% 19.7% 76.4% -13.9 1
1988-06-08 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 910 1139 23.0% 22.2% 54.8% -43.7 0
1988-06-08 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1139 910 54.8% 22.2% 23.0% +43.7 7
1988-06-08 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 986 1222 22.3% 22.2% 55.5% +7.6 4
1988-06-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1222 986 55.5% 22.2% 22.3% -7.6 10
1988-06-08 IA Akranes D 1-1 1000 1179 28.8% 22.3% 48.9% +4.4 2
1988-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1179 1000 48.9% 22.3% 28.8% -4.4 8
1988-06-08 IF Leiftur W 2-1 828 1067 21.9% 22.1% 55.9% +52.7 4
1988-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1067 828 55.9% 22.1% 21.9% -52.7 3
1988-06-09 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1208 1058 66.2% 21.6% 12.2% +28.9 10
1988-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1058 1208 12.2% 21.6% 66.2% -28.9 6
1988-06-12 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1014 994 54.8% 22.2% 23.0% -7.3 4
1988-06-12 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 994 1014 23.0% 22.2% 54.8% +7.3 5
1988-06-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1175 880 73.8% 20.4% 5.8% +26.7 11
1988-06-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 880 1175 5.8% 20.4% 73.8% -26.7 4
1988-06-13 IF Volsungur W 1-0 1029 866 67.1% 21.5% 11.4% +14.4 9
1988-06-13 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 866 1029 11.4% 21.5% 67.1% -14.4 0
1988-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1215 1236 49.9% 22.3% 27.8% +85.6 13
1988-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1236 1215 27.8% 22.3% 49.9% -85.6 10
1988-06-16 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1044 1005 56.8% 22.1% 21.1% -8.2 10
1988-06-16 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1005 1044 21.1% 22.1% 56.8% +8.2 3
1988-06-20 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 852 1013 31.1% 22.4% 46.6% +3.8 1
1988-06-20 @ IF Volsungur D 0-0 1013 852 46.6% 22.4% 31.1% -3.8 4
1988-06-20 Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1035 1300 19.4% 22.1% 58.5% -53.6 10
1988-06-20 @ KA Akureyri W 4-1 1300 1035 58.5% 22.1% 19.4% +53.6 16
1988-06-20 IA Akranes D 1-1 1001 1201 26.3% 22.3% 51.5% +5.7 6
1988-06-20 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1201 1001 51.5% 22.3% 26.3% -5.7 12
1988-06-20 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1151 1007 65.8% 21.6% 12.6% +14.9 13
1988-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1007 1151 12.6% 21.6% 65.8% -14.9 4
1988-06-21 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 854 1183 14.2% 21.7% 64.1% +13.4 5
1988-06-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1183 854 64.1% 21.7% 14.2% -13.4 8
1988-06-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1196 1166 55.9% 22.1% 22.0% +48.6 15
1988-06-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1166 1196 22.0% 22.1% 55.9% -48.6 13
1988-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1009 867 65.7% 21.6% 12.7% +15.0 7
1988-06-24 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 867 1009 12.7% 21.6% 65.7% -15.0 5
1988-06-26 IF Volsungur W 2-0 1354 856 79.8% 18.2% 1.9% +4.7 19
1988-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 856 1354 1.9% 18.2% 79.8% -4.6 1
1988-06-26 KA Akureyri W 2-1 992 982 53.7% 22.2% 24.1% +26.2 7
1988-06-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 982 992 24.1% 22.2% 53.7% -26.2 10
1988-06-27 Keflavik IF W 3-1 1170 1007 67.1% 21.5% 11.4% +23.6 11
1988-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1007 1170 11.4% 21.5% 67.1% -23.6 6
1988-06-29 IF Leiftur W 2-0 1358 1018 75.5% 20.0% 4.5% +11.0 22
1988-06-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1018 1358 4.5% 20.0% 75.5% -11.0 7
1988-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 851 852 52.4% 22.2% 25.3% -6.8 2
1988-06-29 @ IF Volsungur D 0-0 852 851 25.3% 22.2% 52.4% +6.8 6
1988-06-29 IA Akranes W 3-2 956 1244 17.3% 21.9% 60.7% +54.2 13
1988-06-29 @ KA Akureyri L 2-3 1244 956 60.7% 21.9% 17.3% -54.2 15
1988-06-30 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 983 1024 47.5% 22.3% 30.1% -3.8 7
1988-06-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1024 983 30.1% 22.3% 47.5% +3.8 8
1988-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1117 1193 42.9% 22.4% 34.8% -44.2 13
1988-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1193 1117 34.8% 22.4% 42.9% +44.2 14
1988-07-09 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1190 1370 28.7% 22.3% 49.0% -114.9 15
1988-07-09 @ IA Akranes W 4-0 1370 1190 49.0% 22.3% 28.7% +114.9 25
1988-07-10 IF Volsungur L 0-1 1007 844 67.1% 21.5% 11.4% -67.2 7
1988-07-10 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 844 1007 11.4% 21.5% 67.1% +67.2 5
1988-07-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1028 1073 47.0% 22.3% 30.7% +63.9 11
1988-07-11 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1073 1028 30.7% 22.3% 47.0% -63.9 13
1988-07-11 KA Akureyri W 4-3 1237 1010 70.8% 21.0% 8.2% +9.2 17
1988-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-4 1010 1237 8.2% 21.0% 70.8% -9.2 13
1988-07-11 Keflavik IF W 3-1 859 979 36.5% 22.4% 41.1% +69.7 9
1988-07-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 979 859 41.1% 22.4% 36.5% -69.7 7
1988-07-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1246 1484 22.1% 22.2% 55.8% -25.9 17
1988-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1484 1246 55.8% 22.2% 22.1% +25.8 28
1988-07-15 Keflavik IF L 1-2 912 910 52.7% 22.2% 25.0% -49.9 5
1988-07-15 @ IF Volsungur W 2-1 910 912 25.0% 22.2% 52.7% +49.9 10
1988-07-15 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1092 1001 61.7% 21.9% 16.4% +17.9 14
1988-07-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1001 1092 16.4% 21.9% 61.7% -17.9 13
1988-07-16 IF Leiftur W 3-1 1075 940 65.2% 21.6% 13.2% +26.8 18
1988-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 940 1075 13.2% 21.6% 65.2% -26.8 7
1988-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 929 1009 42.2% 22.4% 35.4% -43.6 9
1988-07-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1009 929 35.4% 22.4% 42.2% +43.6 16
1988-07-24 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1510 1110 77.4% 19.4% 3.3% +4.2 31
1988-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1110 1510 3.3% 19.4% 77.4% -4.2 14
1988-07-24 IF Volsungur W 2-1 1102 862 71.5% 20.9% 7.6% +9.3 21
1988-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 862 1102 7.6% 20.9% 71.5% -9.3 5
1988-07-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 983 885 62.3% 21.9% 15.9% +18.3 16
1988-07-24 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 885 983 15.9% 21.9% 62.3% -18.3 9
1988-07-24 IF Leiftur W 1-0 1221 913 74.3% 20.3% 5.4% +7.0 20
1988-07-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 913 1221 5.4% 20.3% 74.3% -7.0 7
1988-07-25 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1053 960 61.9% 21.9% 16.2% +54.2 19
1988-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 960 1053 16.2% 21.9% 61.9% -54.2 10
1988-08-04 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 852 1107 20.4% 22.1% 57.5% -39.5 5
1988-08-04 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1107 852 57.5% 22.1% 20.4% +39.5 22
1988-08-04 KA Akureyri D 1-1 905 1001 40.1% 22.4% 37.5% -0.5 11
1988-08-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1001 905 37.5% 22.4% 40.1% +0.5 17
1988-08-04 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1105 906 69.3% 21.2% 9.5% +11.4 17
1988-08-04 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 906 1105 9.5% 21.2% 69.3% -11.4 7
1988-08-04 IA Akranes W 3-1 1228 1111 63.8% 21.8% 14.4% +29.2 23
1988-08-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1111 1228 14.4% 21.8% 63.8% -29.2 21
1988-08-08 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 867 1515 2.7% 18.9% 78.4% -6.4 9
1988-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1515 867 78.4% 18.9% 2.7% +6.5 34
1988-08-14 IF Volsungur W 3-1 1257 813 78.5% 18.9% 2.6% +5.4 26
1988-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 813 1257 2.6% 18.9% 78.5% -5.4 5
1988-08-15 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1521 905 82.2% 16.8% 1.0% +2.4 37
1988-08-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 905 1521 1.0% 16.8% 82.2% -2.4 11
1988-08-15 Thor Akureyri W 4-3 1082 1117 48.3% 22.3% 29.4% +28.6 24
1988-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 3-4 1117 1082 29.4% 22.3% 48.3% -28.6 17
1988-08-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 895 860 56.4% 22.1% 21.5% -56.3 7
1988-08-15 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 860 895 21.5% 22.1% 56.4% +56.3 12
1988-08-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1002 1146 33.2% 22.4% 44.5% +74.3 20
1988-08-15 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1146 1002 44.5% 22.4% 33.2% -74.3 22
1988-08-21 KA Akureyri L 0-4 807 1076 19.1% 22.0% 58.8% -81.8 5
1988-08-21 @ IF Volsungur W 4-0 1076 807 58.8% 22.0% 19.1% +81.8 23
1988-08-21 IF Leiftur W 2-1 902 839 59.3% 22.0% 18.7% +21.2 14
1988-08-21 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 839 902 18.7% 22.0% 59.3% -21.2 7
1988-08-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1072 1523 7.6% 20.9% 71.5% -9.2 22
1988-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1523 1072 71.5% 20.9% 7.6% +9.2 40
1988-08-21 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1088 1262 29.4% 22.3% 48.2% -89.7 17
1988-08-21 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1262 1088 48.2% 22.3% 29.4% +89.7 29
1988-08-22 IA Akranes L 1-2 917 1111 27.0% 22.3% 50.7% -28.8 12
1988-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1111 917 50.7% 22.3% 27.0% +28.8 27
1988-09-03 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1533 1158 76.6% 19.6% 3.8% +4.4 43
1988-09-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1158 1533 3.8% 19.6% 76.6% -4.3 23
1988-09-03 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1139 924 70.2% 21.1% 8.7% +21.0 30
1988-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 924 1139 8.7% 21.1% 70.2% -21.0 14
1988-09-03 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 817 1063 21.3% 22.1% 56.5% +8.1 8
1988-09-03 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 1063 817 56.5% 22.1% 21.3% -8.1 23
1988-09-03 IF Volsungur W 2-1 999 726 72.9% 20.6% 6.4% +7.9 20
1988-09-03 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 726 999 6.4% 20.6% 72.9% -7.9 5
1988-09-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1352 888 79.0% 18.6% 2.3% +10.7 32
1988-09-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 888 1352 2.3% 18.6% 79.0% -10.7 12
1988-09-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 718 1537 1.1% 16.9% 82.1% +80.3 8
1988-09-10 @ IF Volsungur L 0-1 1537 718 82.1% 16.9% 1.1% -80.3 43
1988-09-10 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1153 826 75.1% 20.1% 4.8% +5.9 26
1988-09-10 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 826 1153 4.8% 20.1% 75.1% -5.9 8
1988-09-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 903 1363 7.2% 20.8% 72.0% -15.2 14
1988-09-10 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1363 903 72.0% 20.8% 7.2% +15.2 35
1988-09-10 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 877 1006 35.3% 22.4% 42.3% +71.4 15
1988-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1006 877 42.3% 22.4% 35.3% -71.4 20
1988-09-11 IA Akranes D 1-1 1055 1160 38.7% 22.4% 38.9% +0.1 24
1988-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1160 1055 38.9% 22.4% 38.7% -0.1 31
1988-09-17 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1160 1159 52.7% 22.2% 25.1% -4.6 32
1988-09-17 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1159 1160 25.1% 22.2% 52.7% +4.6 27
1988-09-17 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 820 1457 2.8% 19.1% 78.1% -10.0 8
1988-09-17 @ IF Leiftur W 3-0 1457 820 78.1% 19.1% 2.8% +10.0 46
1988-09-17 Keflavik IF D 2-2 935 887 57.7% 22.1% 20.2% -6.5 21
1988-09-17 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 887 935 20.2% 22.1% 57.7% +6.5 15
1988-09-17 IF Volsungur W 5-2 948 798 66.3% 21.6% 12.2% +30.6 18
1988-09-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-5 798 948 12.2% 21.6% 66.3% -30.6 8
1988-09-18 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1378 1055 74.9% 20.2% 5.0% +5.8 38
1988-09-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1055 1378 5.0% 20.2% 74.9% -5.7 24
1988-09-24 IA Akranes W 3-2 1467 1156 74.5% 20.3% 5.3% +6.1 49
1988-09-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1156 1467 5.3% 20.3% 74.5% -6.1 32
1988-09-24 IF Leiftur D 1-1 767 810 47.3% 22.3% 30.3% -3.7 9
1988-09-24 @ IF Volsungur D 1-1 810 767 30.3% 22.3% 47.3% +3.7 9
1988-09-24 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1164 1384 24.0% 22.2% 53.7% -27.8 27
1988-09-24 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1384 1164 53.7% 22.2% 24.0% +27.8 41
1988-09-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 894 979 41.5% 22.4% 36.1% +62.9 18
1988-09-24 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 979 894 36.1% 22.4% 41.5% -62.9 18
1988-09-24 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1049 929 64.1% 21.7% 14.1% -60.4 24
1988-09-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 929 1049 14.1% 21.7% 64.1% +60.4 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1988-09-10 1.08% @ IF Volsungur 718 1 Fram Reykjavik 1537 0
2 1988-07-10 11.41% IF Volsungur 844 1 @ IF Leiftur 1007 0
3 1988-09-24 14.15% Thor Akureyri 929 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1049 1
4 1988-06-29 17.35% @ KA Akureyri 956 3 IA Akranes 1244 2
5 1988-08-15 21.50% Vikingur Reykjavik 860 1 @ IF Leiftur 895 0
6 1988-06-08 21.95% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 828 2 IF Leiftur 1067 1
7 1988-05-19 24.80% KR Reykjavik 1094 3 @ Keflavik IF 1098 1
8 1988-07-15 25.02% Keflavik IF 910 2 @ IF Volsungur 912 1
9 1988-08-15 33.18% @ KA Akureyri 1002 3 KR Reykjavik 1146 1
10 1988-06-30 34.78% Valur Reykjavik 1193 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1117 0
11 1988-09-10 35.30% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 877 3 Thor Akureyri 1006 1
12 1988-07-17 35.42% KR Reykjavik 1009 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 929 0
13 1988-07-11 36.52% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 859 3 Keflavik IF 979 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-07-09 114.92 Fram Reykjavik 4 1370 48.97% @ IA Akranes 0 1190 28.72% 22.31%
2 1988-08-21 89.73 Valur Reykjavik 3 1262 48.25% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1088 29.43% 22.32%
3 1988-05-19 86.74 KR Reykjavik 3 1094 24.80% @ Keflavik IF 1 1098 52.97% 22.23%
4 1988-06-16 85.62 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1215 49.92% KR Reykjavik 0 1236 27.78% 22.30%
5 1988-08-21 81.78 KA Akureyri 4 1076 58.83% @ IF Volsungur 0 807 19.13% 22.04%
6 1988-09-10 80.28 @ IF Volsungur 1 718 1.08% Fram Reykjavik 0 1537 82.08% 16.85%
7 1988-08-15 74.33 @ KA Akureyri 3 1002 33.18% KR Reykjavik 1 1146 44.45% 22.37%
8 1988-09-10 71.37 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 877 35.30% Thor Akureyri 1 1006 42.32% 22.38%
9 1988-07-11 69.70 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 859 36.52% Keflavik IF 1 979 41.10% 22.38%
10 1988-07-10 67.19 IF Volsungur 1 844 11.41% @ IF Leiftur 0 1007 67.11% 21.48%
11 1988-07-11 63.89 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1028 46.98% KR Reykjavik 0 1073 30.67% 22.34%
12 1988-09-24 62.92 @ Keflavik IF 3 894 41.55% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 979 36.06% 22.38%
13 1988-09-24 60.40 Thor Akureyri 2 929 14.15% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1049 64.11% 21.74%
14 1988-08-15 56.33 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 860 21.50% @ IF Leiftur 0 895 56.37% 22.14%
15 1988-07-25 54.25 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1053 61.89% Keflavik IF 0 960 16.23% 21.88%
16 1988-06-29 54.19 @ KA Akureyri 3 956 17.35% IA Akranes 2 1244 60.70% 21.95%
17 1988-06-20 53.57 Fram Reykjavik 4 1300 58.49% @ KA Akureyri 1 1035 19.45% 22.05%
18 1988-06-08 52.69 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 828 21.95% IF Leiftur 1 1067 55.90% 22.15%
19 1988-07-15 49.88 Keflavik IF 2 910 25.02% @ IF Volsungur 1 912 52.74% 22.24%
20 1988-06-24 48.57 @ IA Akranes 2 1196 55.85% KR Reykjavik 0 1166 22.00% 22.15%
21 1988-06-30 44.15 Valur Reykjavik 1 1193 34.78% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1117 42.85% 22.38%
22 1988-06-08 43.73 Valur Reykjavik 3 1139 54.78% @ IF Volsungur 1 910 23.03% 22.19%
23 1988-07-17 43.60 KR Reykjavik 1 1009 35.42% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 929 42.20% 22.38%
24 1988-05-21 40.27 Fram Reykjavik 1 1168 39.45% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1059 38.17% 22.39%
25 1988-05-21 39.98 KA Akureyri 1 993 39.81% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 881 37.80% 22.39%