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1988 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

49 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1986.0

Relegated

IF Leiftur

9 pts

IF Volsungur · 9 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

9.28 points above expected

49 points · 39.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Leiftur

12.05 points below expected

9 points · 21.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 18 16 1 1 49 38 8 +30 39.72 +9.28
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 13 2 3 41 36 15 +21 34.60 +6.40
3 IA Akranes 18 9 5 4 32 32 25 +7 29.62 +2.38
4 KA Akureyri 18 8 3 7 27 31 29 +2 22.70 +4.30
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 3 8 24 26 25 +1 27.88 -3.88
6 Thor Akureyri 18 6 6 6 24 25 28 -3 24.76 -0.76
7 Keflavik IF 18 4 6 8 18 22 32 -10 19.95 -1.95
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 3 10 18 20 31 -11 15.72 +2.28
9 IF Leiftur Relegated 18 1 6 11 9 12 26 -14 21.05 -12.05
10 IF Volsungur Relegated 18 2 3 13 9 13 36 -23 14.04 -5.04

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 49 39.72 +9.28
2 Valur Reykjavik 41 34.60 +6.40
3 KA Akureyri 27 22.70 +4.30
4 IA Akranes 32 29.62 +2.38
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 15.72 +2.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Leiftur 9 21.05 -12.05
2 IF Volsungur 9 14.04 -5.04
3 KR Reykjavik 24 27.88 -3.88
4 Keflavik IF 18 19.95 -1.95
5 Thor Akureyri 24 24.76 -0.76

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 11 Jun 16 – Sep 3 1 in 76
2 Valur Reykjavik 8 Jul 24 – Sep 24 1 in 24
3 IF Volsungur 1 Jul 10 – Jul 10 1 in 9
4 KR Reykjavik 3 May 19 – Jun 9 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 3 Aug 15 – Sep 3 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 7 Jun 29 – Aug 21 1 in 274
2 Fram Reykjavik 1 Sep 10 – Sep 10 1 in 93
3 IF Volsungur 6 Jul 15 – Sep 3 1 in 29
4 IA Akranes 2 Jun 29 – Jul 9 1 in 12
5 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 24 – Jul 11 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jun 4 – Jul 15 1 in 64
2 Fram Reykjavik 15 May 16 – Sep 3 1 in 12
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 8 – Jun 20 1 in 10
4 IA Akranes 7 May 15 – Jun 24 1 in 10
5 KA Akureyri 4 Jul 24 – Aug 21 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Leiftur 11 Jun 29 – Sep 24 1 in 24
2 Keflavik IF 8 May 19 – Jul 11 1 in 23
3 KR Reykjavik 6 Aug 15 – Sep 24 1 in 21
4 IF Volsungur 8 May 15 – Jun 29 1 in 9
5 Thor Akureyri 6 May 21 – Jun 20 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Fram Reykjavik 1457 49 -51 12 12.5 -0.5
Valur Reykjavik 1396 41 +149 15 10.9 +4.1
IA Akranes 1134 32 +39 8 7.6 +0.4
KA Akureyri 1120 27 +60 7 6.7 +0.3
Thor Akureyri 973 24 -99 7 7.6 -0.6
KR Reykjavik 973 24 -83 2 6.2 -4.2
Keflavik IF 941 18 +54 7 5.2 +1.8
Vikingur Reykjavik 900 18 +0 6 6.1 -0.1
IF Volsungur 748 9 -44 4 3.6 +0.4
IF Leiftur 798 9 -25 2 3.4 -1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IL IV KA KR KI TA VR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
5.00
1-0-1
5.21
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.08
1-1-0
4.52
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
5.03
IA Akranes
0-0-2
1.45
 —
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.93
0-1-1
3.84
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
4.08
1-1-0
3.36
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
4.17
IF Leiftur
0-0-2
0.61
0-1-1
2.32
 —
0-1-1
3.36
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
1.46
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
3.82
IF Volsungur
1-0-1
0.44
0-0-2
1.64
1-1-0
2.20
 —
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
1.55
0-0-2
1.18
0-1-1
2.38
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
1.11
1-1-0
1.71
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.21
 —
1-0-1
1.80
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
2.63
0-0-2
1.40
2-0-0
3.51
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
2.26
1-1-0
4.11
2-0-0
4.31
1-0-1
3.76
 —
2-0-0
3.04
0-0-2
3.28
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
3.64
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
1.09
0-1-1
1.48
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.52
 —
0-2-0
2.48
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
2.93
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
1.66
0-1-1
2.19
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
2.93
2-0-0
2.28
0-2-0
3.08
 —
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
3.68
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
4.17
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.74
 —
1-1-0
4.70
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-0-2
0.58
0-0-2
1.41
2-0-0
1.74
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-2
2.05
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.88
0-1-1
0.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +13.9
Allowed 0.77 -13.7
Differential 0.97 +7.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.78%4.44%3.33%2.22%—23.33%
17.78%12.22%8.89%7.22%0.56%—36.67%
24.44%8.89%3.33%2.78%0.56%0.56%20.56%
33.33%7.22%2.78%—1.11%—14.44%
42.22%0.56%0.56%1.11%——4.44%
5+——0.56%———0.56%
Total23.33%36.67%20.56%14.44%4.44%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.71
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
122.22%5.56%————27.78%
222.22%5.56%————27.78%
316.67%—11.11%———27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.44 +1.67
SD 1.13 0.70 1.24
CV 0.54 1.59 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%—11.11%
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
211.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%5.56%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.39 +0.39
SD 1.11 1.29 1.75
CV 0.63 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
1—22.22%27.78%5.56%——55.56%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.44 -0.78
SD 0.59 0.86 0.94
CV 0.89 0.59 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%22.22%22.22%——61.11%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%11.11%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 2.00 -1.28
SD 0.57 1.46 1.36
CV 0.80 0.73 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.61 +0.11
SD 1.07 1.24 1.60
CV 0.62 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.39 +0.06
SD 1.10 1.04 1.83
CV 0.76 0.75 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
1—27.78%5.56%22.22%——55.56%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—50.00%22.22%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.78 -0.56
SD 0.88 0.88 1.50
CV 0.72 0.49 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%55.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.56 -0.17
SD 0.98 1.20 1.29
CV 0.70 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%————27.78%
116.67%—————16.67%
2———————
35.56%27.78%5.56%———38.89%
45.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.83 +1.17
SD 1.57 0.86 1.38
CV 0.79 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—44.44%
15.56%—16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.72 -0.61
SD 1.41 1.23 1.97
CV 1.27 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1457 49 39.72 +9.28 100.0% 27 31 37 40 43 47 49
Valur Reykjavik 1396 41 34.60 +6.40 91.0% 23 25 31 35 38 43 50
IA Akranes 1134 32 29.62 +2.38 74.0% 13 17 26 30 33 38 40
KA Akureyri 1120 27 22.70 +4.30 83.0% 12 16 19 22 25 30 35
Thor Akureyri 973 24 24.76 -0.76 55.0% 12 16 21 24 29 34 40
KR Reykjavik 973 24 27.88 -3.88 25.0% 18 19 24 28 30 35 41
Keflavik IF 941 18 19.95 -1.95 38.0% 9 12 16 20 23 28 32
Vikingur Reykjavik 900 18 15.72 +2.28 68.0% 5 8 13 16 19 23 26
IF Leiftur 798 9 21.05 -12.05 0.0% 12 14 18 21 24 29 30
IF Volsungur 748 9 14.04 -5.04 14.0% 6 8 11 14 16 22 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
53.33%21.11%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
258 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
099.11800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
69%
Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Runaway
00.320.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.88 * Some Luck: 3.88 to 5.82 * Lucky: 5.82 to 7.76 * Wild Swing: 7.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.91 * Close: 0.91 to 1.37 * Off: 1.37 to 1.82 * Way Off: 1.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.64 * A Surprise: 0.64 to 1.02 * Several Surprises: 1.02 to 1.41 * Many Surprises: 1.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.89 points
Lucky
04.8512
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.142.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
IF Leiftur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 235.15
2.26
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
78%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.62
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1530.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Fram Reykjavik69.00%23.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Valur Reykjavik26.00%39.00%20.00%11.00%2.00%1.00%—1.00%——
IA Akranes3.00%20.00%33.00%21.00%8.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%
KA Akureyri—4.00%3.00%11.00%18.00%22.00%20.00%12.00%9.00%1.00%
KR Reykjavik1.00%9.00%19.00%32.00%19.00%11.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%—
Thor Akureyri1.00%4.00%15.00%12.00%22.00%19.00%11.00%10.00%5.00%1.00%
Keflavik IF—1.00%2.00%4.00%12.00%11.00%25.00%16.00%20.00%9.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik————2.00%6.00%13.00%21.00%29.00%29.00%
IF Leiftur——3.00%7.00%15.00%18.00%21.00%22.00%11.00%3.00%
IF Volsungur————1.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%22.00%56.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
KR Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
IA Akranes 97.00% 3.00%
Thor Akureyri 94.00% 6.00%
KA Akureyri 90.00% 10.00%
IF Leiftur 86.00% 14.00%
Keflavik IF 71.00% 29.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 42.00% 58.00%
IF Volsungur 22.00% 78.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1988-05-15 IA Akranes D 0-049.6 1072 1097 49.44% 22.31% 28.25%+0.28 -5.3 1
1988-05-15 @ IF Leiftur D 0-049.6 1097 1072 28.25% 22.31% 49.44%-0.28 +5.2 1
1988-05-15 IF Volsungur W 3-136.6 1044 993 58.06% 22.07% 19.87%+0.58 +38.6 3
1988-05-15 @ Keflavik IF L 1-336.6 993 1044 19.87% 22.07% 58.06%-0.58 -38.6 0
1988-05-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-260.8 1091 853 71.36% 20.92% 7.72%+1.31 -11.9 1
1988-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-260.8 853 1091 7.72% 20.92% 71.36%-1.31 +11.9 1
1988-05-16 Valur Reykjavik W 1-037.6 1120 1151 48.88% 22.32% 28.81%+0.27 +32.2 3
1988-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.6 1151 1120 28.81% 22.32% 48.88%-0.27 -32.2 0
1988-05-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-346.6 1083 1079 52.94% 22.24% 24.82%+0.40 -86.7 3
1988-05-19 @ Keflavik IF W 3-146.6 1079 1083 24.82% 22.24% 52.94%-0.40 +86.7 4
1988-05-20 Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.6 1066 1119 46.06% 22.35% 31.59%+0.18 -3.5 2
1988-05-20 @ IF Leiftur D 0-049.6 1119 1066 31.59% 22.35% 46.06%-0.18 +3.5 1
1988-05-21 IA Akranes L 1-244.5 954 1103 32.69% 22.36% 44.95%-0.19 -33.6 0
1988-05-21 @ IF Volsungur W 2-144.5 1103 954 44.95% 22.36% 32.69%+0.19 +33.6 4
1988-05-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-140.4 1044 1153 38.17% 22.39% 39.44%-0.04 -40.3 0
1988-05-21 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-040.4 1153 1044 39.44% 22.39% 38.17%+0.04 +40.3 6
1988-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-140.2 864 976 37.78% 22.39% 39.83%-0.05 -40.0 1
1988-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-040.2 976 864 39.83% 22.39% 37.78%+0.05 +40.0 3
1988-06-02 IF Volsungur W 3-024.2 1166 920 71.70% 20.86% 7.44%+1.34 +26.3 7
1988-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-324.2 920 1166 7.44% 20.86% 71.70%-1.34 -26.3 0
1988-06-03 Valur Reykjavik W 1-036.0 1136 1122 54.15% 22.20% 23.65%+0.44 +27.4 7
1988-06-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-136.0 1122 1136 23.65% 22.20% 54.15%-0.44 -27.4 1
1988-06-03 Keflavik IF W 2-141.6 1016 996 54.81% 22.19% 23.00%+0.46 +25.2 6
1988-06-03 @ KA Akureyri L 1-241.6 996 1016 23.00% 22.19% 54.81%-0.46 -25.2 3
1988-06-03 Thor Akureyri W 4-239.6 1095 1003 61.73% 21.89% 16.38%+0.74 +29.2 4
1988-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-439.6 1003 1095 16.38% 21.89% 61.73%-0.74 -29.2 0
1988-06-04 Thor Akureyri D 1-154.3 1063 974 61.50% 21.91% 16.59%+0.73 -10.6 3
1988-06-04 @ IF Leiftur D 1-154.3 974 1063 16.59% 21.91% 61.50%-0.73 +10.6 1
1988-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-022.7 1193 824 76.41% 19.70% 3.89%+1.81 +13.8 9
1988-06-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-322.7 824 1193 3.89% 19.70% 76.41%-1.81 -13.8 1
1988-06-08 Valur Reykjavik L 1-337.6 894 1124 22.95% 22.18% 54.86%-0.51 -43.6 0
1988-06-08 @ IF Volsungur W 3-137.6 1124 894 54.86% 22.18% 22.95%+0.51 +43.6 7
1988-06-08 Fram Reykjavik D 1-154.3 971 1207 22.30% 22.16% 55.54%-0.53 +7.6 4
1988-06-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-154.3 1207 971 55.54% 22.16% 22.30%+0.53 -7.6 10
1988-06-08 IA Akranes D 1-154.2 985 1164 28.82% 22.32% 48.86%-0.31 +4.4 2
1988-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-154.2 1164 985 48.86% 22.32% 28.82%+0.31 -4.4 8
1988-06-08 IF Leiftur W 2-151.5 811 1052 21.74% 22.14% 56.12%-0.55 +52.9 4
1988-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-251.5 1052 811 56.12% 22.14% 21.74%+0.55 -52.9 3
1988-06-09 KA Akureyri W 2-028.0 1192 1041 66.30% 21.56% 12.15%+0.97 +28.8 10
1988-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-228.0 1041 1192 12.15% 21.56% 66.30%-0.97 -28.8 6
1988-06-12 Keflavik IF D 1-154.2 999 978 54.90% 22.18% 22.92%+0.47 -7.3 4
1988-06-12 @ IF Leiftur D 1-154.2 978 999 22.92% 22.18% 54.90%-0.47 +7.3 5
1988-06-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-023.6 1159 864 73.87% 20.42% 5.71%+1.53 +26.5 11
1988-06-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-423.6 864 1159 5.71% 20.42% 73.87%-1.53 -26.5 4
1988-06-13 IF Volsungur W 1-032.1 1013 850 67.05% 21.48% 11.46%+1.01 +14.5 9
1988-06-13 @ KA Akureyri L 0-132.1 850 1013 11.46% 21.48% 67.05%-1.01 -14.5 0
1988-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-030.9 1199 1221 49.94% 22.30% 27.76%+0.30 +85.6 13
1988-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-330.9 1221 1199 27.76% 22.30% 49.94%-0.30 -85.6 10
1988-06-16 Thor Akureyri D 1-154.3 1027 989 56.67% 22.13% 21.21%+0.53 -8.2 10
1988-06-16 @ KA Akureyri D 1-154.3 989 1027 21.21% 22.13% 56.67%-0.53 +8.2 3
1988-06-20 Thor Akureyri D 0-049.6 836 998 31.00% 22.35% 46.66%-0.24 +3.8 1
1988-06-20 @ IF Volsungur D 0-049.6 998 836 46.66% 22.35% 31.00%+0.24 -3.8 4
1988-06-20 Fram Reykjavik L 1-433.7 1019 1285 19.37% 22.05% 58.58%-0.65 -53.4 10
1988-06-20 @ KA Akureyri W 4-133.7 1285 1019 58.58% 22.05% 19.37%+0.65 +53.4 16
1988-06-20 IA Akranes D 1-154.3 986 1186 26.25% 22.27% 51.48%-0.39 +5.6 6
1988-06-20 @ Keflavik IF D 1-154.3 1186 986 51.48% 22.27% 26.25%+0.39 -5.7 12
1988-06-20 IF Leiftur W 2-138.3 1135 992 65.77% 21.60% 12.62%+0.94 +14.9 13
1988-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-238.3 992 1135 12.62% 21.60% 65.77%-0.94 -14.9 4
1988-06-21 Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.8 837 1167 14.10% 21.73% 64.16%-0.90 +13.5 5
1988-06-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-049.8 1167 837 64.16% 21.73% 14.10%+0.90 -13.5 8
1988-06-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-031.2 1180 1150 55.85% 22.15% 21.99%+0.50 +48.6 15
1988-06-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-231.2 1150 1180 21.99% 22.15% 55.85%-0.50 -48.6 13
1988-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-138.3 994 851 65.77% 21.60% 12.63%+0.94 +14.9 7
1988-06-24 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-238.3 851 994 12.63% 21.60% 65.77%-0.94 -14.9 5
1988-06-26 IF Volsungur W 2-023.9 1338 840 79.81% 18.24% 1.95%+2.32 +4.6 19
1988-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-223.9 840 1338 1.95% 18.24% 79.81%-2.32 -4.6 1
1988-06-26 KA Akureyri W 2-141.8 977 965 53.86% 22.21% 23.92%+0.43 +26.1 7
1988-06-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-241.8 965 977 23.92% 22.21% 53.86%-0.43 -26.1 10
1988-06-27 Keflavik IF W 3-133.9 1154 991 67.10% 21.48% 11.42%+1.02 +23.5 11
1988-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-333.9 991 1154 11.42% 21.48% 67.10%-1.02 -23.5 6
1988-06-29 IF Leiftur W 2-025.3 1343 1003 75.47% 20.00% 4.53%+1.70 +11.1 22
1988-06-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-225.3 1003 1343 4.53% 20.00% 75.47%-1.70 -11.1 7
1988-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-049.6 835 836 52.48% 22.25% 25.27%+0.38 -6.9 2
1988-06-29 @ IF Volsungur D 0-049.6 836 835 25.27% 22.25% 52.48%-0.38 +6.9 6
1988-06-29 IA Akranes W 3-258.3 939 1229 17.30% 21.95% 60.75%-0.74 +54.2 13
1988-06-29 @ KA Akureyri L 2-358.3 1229 939 60.75% 21.95% 17.30%+0.74 -54.2 15
1988-06-30 Thor Akureyri D 1-154.2 968 1009 47.52% 22.33% 30.14%+0.23 -3.8 7
1988-06-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-154.2 1009 968 30.14% 22.33% 47.52%-0.23 +3.8 8
1988-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-141.8 1102 1178 42.84% 22.38% 34.78%+0.09 -44.1 13
1988-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-041.8 1178 1102 34.78% 22.38% 42.84%-0.09 +44.2 14
1988-07-09 Fram Reykjavik L 0-431.6 1174 1354 28.73% 22.31% 48.95%-0.31 -115.0 15
1988-07-09 @ IA Akranes W 4-031.6 1354 1174 48.95% 22.31% 28.73%+0.31 +115.0 25
1988-07-10 IF Volsungur L 0-148.8 992 828 67.16% 21.47% 11.36%+1.02 -67.2 7
1988-07-10 @ IF Leiftur W 1-048.8 828 992 11.36% 21.47% 67.16%-1.02 +67.2 5
1988-07-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-033.8 1012 1057 46.99% 22.34% 30.67%+0.21 +63.9 11
1988-07-11 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-233.8 1057 1012 30.67% 22.34% 46.99%-0.21 -63.9 13
1988-07-11 KA Akureyri W 4-345.0 1222 994 70.85% 21.00% 8.15%+1.27 +9.1 17
1988-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-445.0 994 1222 8.15% 21.00% 70.85%-1.27 -9.1 13
1988-07-11 Keflavik IF W 3-143.1 842 964 36.41% 22.38% 41.20%-0.09 +69.9 9
1988-07-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-343.1 964 842 41.20% 22.38% 36.41%+0.09 -69.9 7
1988-07-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.3 1231 1469 22.10% 22.16% 55.74%-0.54 -25.9 17
1988-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-037.3 1469 1231 55.74% 22.16% 22.10%+0.54 +25.9 28
1988-07-15 Keflavik IF L 1-250.5 896 894 52.71% 22.24% 25.04%+0.39 -49.9 5
1988-07-15 @ IF Volsungur W 2-150.5 894 896 25.04% 22.24% 52.71%-0.39 +49.9 10
1988-07-15 KA Akureyri W 3-244.9 1076 985 61.77% 21.89% 16.34%+0.74 +17.8 14
1988-07-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-344.9 985 1076 16.34% 21.89% 61.77%-0.74 -17.8 13
1988-07-16 IF Leiftur W 3-134.5 1059 925 65.15% 21.66% 13.19%+0.91 +26.9 18
1988-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-334.5 925 1059 13.19% 21.66% 65.15%-0.91 -26.9 7
1988-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-141.5 912 994 42.11% 22.38% 35.51%+0.07 -43.5 9
1988-07-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.5 994 912 35.51% 22.38% 42.11%-0.07 +43.5 16
1988-07-24 Thor Akureyri W 1-029.8 1495 1094 77.36% 19.36% 3.28%+1.94 +4.2 31
1988-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-129.8 1094 1495 3.28% 19.36% 77.36%-1.94 -4.2 14
1988-07-24 IF Volsungur W 2-136.5 1086 846 71.47% 20.90% 7.63%+1.32 +9.3 21
1988-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-236.5 846 1086 7.63% 20.90% 71.47%-1.32 -9.3 5
1988-07-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-139.3 967 869 62.29% 21.86% 15.85%+0.76 +18.3 16
1988-07-24 @ KA Akureyri L 1-239.3 869 967 15.85% 21.86% 62.29%-0.76 -18.3 9
1988-07-24 IF Leiftur W 1-029.9 1205 898 74.31% 20.31% 5.38%+1.58 +7.0 20
1988-07-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-129.9 898 1205 5.38% 20.31% 74.31%-1.58 -7.0 7
1988-07-25 Keflavik IF W 3-027.1 1037 944 61.90% 21.88% 16.22%+0.75 +54.2 19
1988-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-327.1 944 1037 16.22% 21.88% 61.90%-0.75 -54.2 10
1988-08-04 KR Reykjavik L 1-336.8 836 1091 20.41% 22.09% 57.49%-0.60 -39.5 5
1988-08-04 @ IF Volsungur W 3-136.8 1091 836 57.49% 22.09% 20.41%+0.60 +39.5 22
1988-08-04 KA Akureyri D 1-154.2 890 985 40.13% 22.39% 37.49%+0.01 -0.5 11
1988-08-04 @ Keflavik IF D 1-154.2 985 890 37.49% 22.39% 40.13%-0.01 +0.5 17
1988-08-04 IF Leiftur W 2-137.2 1090 891 69.29% 21.23% 9.48%+1.16 +11.4 17
1988-08-04 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-237.2 891 1090 9.48% 21.23% 69.29%-1.16 -11.4 7
1988-08-04 IA Akranes W 3-135.0 1212 1096 63.79% 21.76% 14.45%+0.84 +29.2 23
1988-08-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-335.0 1096 1212 14.45% 21.76% 63.79%-0.84 -29.2 21
1988-08-08 Fram Reykjavik L 0-224.5 851 1499 2.67% 18.93% 78.40%-2.13 -6.4 9
1988-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-024.5 1499 851 78.40% 18.93% 2.67%+2.13 +6.5 34
1988-08-14 IF Volsungur W 3-130.5 1241 797 78.53% 18.87% 2.60%+2.11 +5.4 26
1988-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-330.5 797 1241 2.60% 18.87% 78.53%-2.11 -5.4 5
1988-08-15 Keflavik IF W 2-023.4 1505 889 82.19% 16.77% 1.04%+2.78 +2.4 37
1988-08-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-223.4 889 1505 1.04% 16.77% 82.19%-2.78 -2.4 11
1988-08-15 Thor Akureyri W 4-351.7 1066 1101 48.29% 22.32% 29.39%+0.25 +28.6 24
1988-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 3-451.7 1101 1066 29.39% 22.32% 48.29%-0.25 -28.6 17
1988-08-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-145.7 880 844 56.44% 22.13% 21.42%+0.52 -56.4 7
1988-08-15 @ IF Leiftur W 1-045.7 844 880 21.42% 22.13% 56.44%-0.52 +56.4 12
1988-08-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-144.1 986 1131 33.14% 22.37% 44.50%-0.18 +74.4 20
1988-08-15 @ KA Akureyri L 1-344.1 1131 986 44.50% 22.37% 33.14%+0.18 -74.4 22
1988-08-21 KA Akureyri L 0-428.1 792 1060 19.13% 22.04% 58.82%-0.66 -81.8 5
1988-08-21 @ IF Volsungur W 4-028.1 1060 792 58.82% 22.04% 19.13%+0.66 +81.8 23
1988-08-21 IF Leiftur W 2-140.2 887 823 59.23% 22.02% 18.75%+0.63 +21.2 14
1988-08-21 @ Keflavik IF L 1-240.2 823 887 18.75% 22.02% 59.23%-0.63 -21.2 7
1988-08-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-237.3 1056 1508 7.56% 20.89% 71.55%-1.37 -9.2 22
1988-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-137.3 1508 1056 71.55% 20.89% 7.56%+1.37 +9.2 40
1988-08-21 Valur Reykjavik L 0-331.3 1073 1247 29.43% 22.32% 48.24%-0.29 -89.7 17
1988-08-21 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-031.3 1247 1073 48.24% 22.32% 29.43%+0.29 +89.7 29
1988-08-22 IA Akranes L 1-242.8 900 1095 26.92% 22.28% 50.80%-0.37 -28.7 12
1988-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-142.8 1095 900 50.80% 22.28% 26.92%+0.37 +28.7 27
1988-09-03 KA Akureyri W 3-241.9 1517 1142 76.62% 19.63% 3.75%+1.84 +4.3 43
1988-09-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-341.9 1142 1517 3.75% 19.63% 76.62%-1.84 -4.3 23
1988-09-03 Keflavik IF W 2-026.8 1124 908 70.22% 21.10% 8.68%+1.22 +21.0 30
1988-09-03 @ IA Akranes L 0-226.8 908 1124 8.68% 21.10% 70.22%-1.22 -21.0 14
1988-09-03 KR Reykjavik D 1-154.3 802 1047 21.36% 22.13% 56.50%-0.57 +8.1 8
1988-09-03 @ IF Leiftur D 1-154.3 1047 802 56.50% 22.13% 21.36%+0.57 -8.1 23
1988-09-03 IF Volsungur W 2-136.1 983 710 72.95% 20.62% 6.42%+1.44 +7.9 20
1988-09-03 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-236.1 710 983 6.42% 20.62% 72.95%-1.44 -7.9 5
1988-09-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-022.1 1336 872 79.03% 18.64% 2.33%+2.19 +10.6 32
1988-09-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-422.1 872 1336 2.33% 18.64% 79.03%-2.19 -10.6 12
1988-09-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-051.9 702 1521 1.07% 16.85% 82.08%-2.79 +80.3 8
1988-09-10 @ IF Volsungur L 0-151.9 1521 702 82.08% 16.85% 1.07%+2.79 -80.3 43
1988-09-10 IF Leiftur W 2-135.5 1137 810 75.05% 20.12% 4.83%+1.65 +5.9 26
1988-09-10 @ KA Akureyri L 1-235.5 810 1137 4.83% 20.12% 75.05%-1.65 -5.9 8
1988-09-10 Valur Reykjavik L 1-332.5 887 1347 7.22% 20.81% 71.96%-1.40 -15.2 14
1988-09-10 @ Keflavik IF W 3-132.5 1347 887 71.96% 20.81% 7.22%+1.40 +15.2 35
1988-09-10 Thor Akureyri W 3-143.5 861 991 35.25% 22.38% 42.37%-0.12 +71.4 15
1988-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-343.5 991 861 42.37% 22.38% 35.25%+0.12 -71.4 20
1988-09-11 IA Akranes D 1-154.2 1039 1145 38.66% 22.39% 38.96%-0.03 +0.1 24
1988-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-154.2 1145 1039 38.96% 22.39% 38.66%+0.03 -0.1 31
1988-09-17 KA Akureyri D 2-260.5 1145 1143 52.68% 22.24% 25.07%+0.39 -4.6 32
1988-09-17 @ IA Akranes D 2-260.5 1143 1145 25.07% 22.24% 52.68%-0.39 +4.6 27
1988-09-17 Fram Reykjavik L 0-322.3 804 1441 2.84% 19.06% 78.10%-2.09 -10.0 8
1988-09-17 @ IF Leiftur W 3-022.3 1441 804 78.10% 19.06% 2.84%+2.09 +10.0 46
1988-09-17 Keflavik IF D 2-260.5 919 872 57.69% 22.09% 20.22%+0.57 -6.5 21
1988-09-17 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-260.5 872 919 20.22% 22.09% 57.69%-0.57 +6.5 15
1988-09-17 IF Volsungur W 5-233.9 933 782 66.27% 21.56% 12.17%+0.97 +30.6 18
1988-09-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-533.9 782 933 12.17% 21.56% 66.27%-0.97 -30.6 8
1988-09-18 KR Reykjavik W 3-241.2 1362 1039 74.90% 20.16% 4.94%+1.64 +5.7 38
1988-09-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-341.2 1039 1362 4.94% 20.16% 74.90%-1.64 -5.7 24
1988-09-24 IA Akranes W 3-242.0 1451 1140 74.46% 20.28% 5.27%+1.59 +6.1 49
1988-09-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-342.0 1140 1451 5.27% 20.28% 74.46%-1.59 -6.1 32
1988-09-24 IF Leiftur D 1-154.2 752 794 47.30% 22.34% 30.36%+0.22 -3.7 9
1988-09-24 @ IF Volsungur D 1-154.2 794 752 30.36% 22.34% 47.30%-0.22 +3.7 9
1988-09-24 Valur Reykjavik L 0-136.5 1148 1368 24.01% 22.21% 53.77%-0.47 -27.7 27
1988-09-24 @ KA Akureyri W 1-036.5 1368 1148 53.77% 22.21% 24.01%+0.47 +27.7 41
1988-09-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-141.6 878 963 41.58% 22.38% 36.04%+0.05 +62.9 18
1988-09-24 @ Keflavik IF L 1-341.6 963 878 36.04% 22.38% 41.58%-0.05 -62.9 18
1988-09-24 Thor Akureyri L 1-253.7 1033 913 64.10% 21.74% 14.16%+0.85 -60.4 24
1988-09-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-153.7 913 1033 14.16% 21.74% 64.10%-0.85 +60.4 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1988-09-10 1.07% @ IF Volsungur 702 1 Fram Reykjavik 1521 0
2 1988-07-10 11.36% IF Volsungur 828 1 @ IF Leiftur 992 0
3 1988-09-24 14.16% Thor Akureyri 913 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1033 1
4 1988-06-29 17.30% @ KA Akureyri 939 3 IA Akranes 1229 2
5 1988-08-15 21.42% Vikingur Reykjavik 844 1 @ IF Leiftur 880 0
6 1988-06-08 21.74% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 811 2 IF Leiftur 1052 1
7 1988-05-19 24.82% KR Reykjavik 1079 3 @ Keflavik IF 1083 1
8 1988-07-15 25.04% Keflavik IF 894 2 @ IF Volsungur 896 1
9 1988-08-15 33.14% @ KA Akureyri 986 3 KR Reykjavik 1131 1
10 1988-06-30 34.78% Valur Reykjavik 1178 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1102 0
11 1988-09-10 35.25% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 861 3 Thor Akureyri 991 1
12 1988-07-17 35.51% KR Reykjavik 994 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 912 0
13 1988-07-11 36.41% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 842 3 Keflavik IF 964 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-07-09 114.98 Fram Reykjavik 4 1354 48.95% @ IA Akranes 0 1174 28.73% 22.31%
2 1988-08-21 89.74 Valur Reykjavik 3 1247 48.24% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1073 29.43% 22.32%
3 1988-05-19 86.70 KR Reykjavik 3 1079 24.82% @ Keflavik IF 1 1083 52.94% 22.24%
4 1988-06-16 85.59 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1199 49.94% KR Reykjavik 0 1221 27.76% 22.30%
5 1988-08-21 81.82 KA Akureyri 4 1060 58.82% @ IF Volsungur 0 792 19.13% 22.04%
6 1988-09-10 80.28 @ IF Volsungur 1 702 1.07% Fram Reykjavik 0 1521 82.08% 16.85%
7 1988-08-15 74.39 @ KA Akureyri 3 986 33.14% KR Reykjavik 1 1131 44.50% 22.37%
8 1988-09-10 71.43 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 861 35.25% Thor Akureyri 1 991 42.37% 22.38%
9 1988-07-11 69.85 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 842 36.41% Keflavik IF 1 964 41.20% 22.38%
10 1988-07-10 67.25 IF Volsungur 1 828 11.36% @ IF Leiftur 0 992 67.16% 21.47%
11 1988-07-11 63.88 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1012 46.99% KR Reykjavik 0 1057 30.67% 22.34%
12 1988-09-24 62.88 @ Keflavik IF 3 878 41.58% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 963 36.04% 22.38%
13 1988-09-24 60.40 Thor Akureyri 2 913 14.16% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1033 64.10% 21.74%
14 1988-08-15 56.40 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 844 21.42% @ IF Leiftur 0 880 56.44% 22.13%
15 1988-06-29 54.24 @ KA Akureyri 3 939 17.30% IA Akranes 2 1229 60.75% 21.95%
16 1988-07-25 54.22 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1037 61.90% Keflavik IF 0 944 16.22% 21.88%
17 1988-06-20 53.37 Fram Reykjavik 4 1285 58.58% @ KA Akureyri 1 1019 19.37% 22.05%
18 1988-06-08 52.89 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 811 21.74% IF Leiftur 1 1052 56.12% 22.14%
19 1988-07-15 49.86 Keflavik IF 2 894 25.04% @ IF Volsungur 1 896 52.71% 22.24%
20 1988-06-24 48.56 @ IA Akranes 2 1180 55.85% KR Reykjavik 0 1150 21.99% 22.15%
21 1988-06-30 44.15 Valur Reykjavik 1 1178 34.78% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1102 42.84% 22.38%
22 1988-06-08 43.60 Valur Reykjavik 3 1124 54.86% @ IF Volsungur 1 894 22.95% 22.18%
23 1988-07-17 43.54 KR Reykjavik 1 994 35.51% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 912 42.11% 22.38%
24 1988-05-21 40.28 Fram Reykjavik 1 1153 39.44% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1044 38.17% 22.39%
25 1988-05-21 39.96 KA Akureyri 1 976 39.83% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 864 37.78% 22.39%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-05-15 60.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1091 71.36% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 853 7.72% 20.92%
2 1988-09-17 60.5 @ IA Akranes 2 1145 52.68% KA Akureyri 2 1143 25.07% 22.24%
3 1988-09-17 60.5 @ Thor Akureyri 2 919 57.69% Keflavik IF 2 872 20.22% 22.09%
4 1988-06-29 58.3 @ KA Akureyri 3 939 17.30% IA Akranes 2 1229 60.75% 21.95%
5 1988-06-04 54.3 @ IF Leiftur 1 1063 61.50% Thor Akureyri 1 974 16.59% 21.91%
6 1988-06-08 54.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 971 22.30% Fram Reykjavik 1 1207 55.54% 22.16%
7 1988-06-16 54.3 @ KA Akureyri 1 1027 56.67% Thor Akureyri 1 989 21.21% 22.13%
8 1988-06-20 54.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 986 26.25% IA Akranes 1 1186 51.48% 22.27%
9 1988-09-03 54.3 @ IF Leiftur 1 802 21.36% KR Reykjavik 1 1047 56.50% 22.13%
10 1988-06-08 54.2 @ Thor Akureyri 1 985 28.82% IA Akranes 1 1164 48.86% 22.32%
11 1988-06-12 54.2 @ IF Leiftur 1 999 54.90% Keflavik IF 1 978 22.92% 22.18%
12 1988-06-30 54.2 @ Keflavik IF 1 968 47.52% Thor Akureyri 1 1009 30.14% 22.33%
13 1988-08-04 54.2 @ Keflavik IF 1 890 40.13% KA Akureyri 1 985 37.49% 22.39%
14 1988-09-11 54.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1039 38.66% IA Akranes 1 1145 38.96% 22.39%
15 1988-09-24 54.2 @ IF Volsungur 1 752 47.30% IF Leiftur 1 794 30.36% 22.34%
16 1988-09-24 53.7 Thor Akureyri 2 913 14.16% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1033 64.10% 21.74%
17 1988-09-10 51.9 @ IF Volsungur 1 702 1.07% Fram Reykjavik 0 1521 82.08% 16.85%
18 1988-08-15 51.7 @ IA Akranes 4 1066 48.29% Thor Akureyri 3 1101 29.39% 22.32%
19 1988-06-08 51.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 811 21.74% IF Leiftur 1 1052 56.12% 22.14%
20 1988-07-15 50.5 Keflavik IF 2 894 25.04% @ IF Volsungur 1 896 52.71% 22.24%
21 1988-06-21 49.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 837 14.10% Valur Reykjavik 0 1167 64.16% 21.73%
22 1988-05-15 49.6 @ IF Leiftur 0 1072 49.44% IA Akranes 0 1097 28.25% 22.31%
23 1988-05-20 49.6 @ IF Leiftur 0 1066 46.06% Valur Reykjavik 0 1119 31.59% 22.35%
24 1988-06-20 49.6 @ IF Volsungur 0 836 31.00% Thor Akureyri 0 998 46.66% 22.35%
25 1988-06-29 49.6 @ IF Volsungur 0 835 52.48% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 836 25.27% 22.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-09-04 22.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1336 79.03% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 872 2.33% 18.64%
2 1988-09-17 22.3 Fram Reykjavik 3 1441 78.10% @ IF Leiftur 0 804 2.84% 19.06%
3 1988-06-05 22.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1193 76.41% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 824 3.89% 19.70%
4 1988-08-15 23.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1505 82.19% Keflavik IF 0 889 1.04% 16.77%
5 1988-06-13 23.6 @ IA Akranes 4 1159 73.87% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 864 5.71% 20.42%
6 1988-06-26 23.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1338 79.81% IF Volsungur 0 840 1.95% 18.24%
7 1988-06-02 24.2 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1166 71.70% IF Volsungur 0 920 7.44% 20.86%
8 1988-08-08 24.5 Fram Reykjavik 2 1499 78.40% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 851 2.67% 18.93%
9 1988-06-29 25.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1343 75.47% IF Leiftur 0 1003 4.53% 20.00%
10 1988-09-03 26.8 @ IA Akranes 2 1124 70.22% Keflavik IF 0 908 8.68% 21.10%
11 1988-07-25 27.1 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1037 61.90% Keflavik IF 0 944 16.22% 21.88%
12 1988-06-09 28.0 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1192 66.30% KA Akureyri 0 1041 12.15% 21.56%
13 1988-08-21 28.1 KA Akureyri 4 1060 58.82% @ IF Volsungur 0 792 19.13% 22.04%
14 1988-07-24 29.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1495 77.36% Thor Akureyri 0 1094 3.28% 19.36%
15 1988-07-24 29.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1205 74.31% IF Leiftur 0 898 5.38% 20.31%
16 1988-08-14 30.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1241 78.53% IF Volsungur 1 797 2.60% 18.87%
17 1988-06-16 30.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1199 49.94% KR Reykjavik 0 1221 27.76% 22.30%
18 1988-06-24 31.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1180 55.85% KR Reykjavik 0 1150 21.99% 22.15%
19 1988-08-21 31.3 Valur Reykjavik 3 1247 48.24% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1073 29.43% 22.32%
20 1988-07-09 31.6 Fram Reykjavik 4 1354 48.95% @ IA Akranes 0 1174 28.73% 22.31%
21 1988-06-13 32.1 @ KA Akureyri 1 1013 67.05% IF Volsungur 0 850 11.46% 21.48%
22 1988-09-10 32.5 Valur Reykjavik 3 1347 71.96% @ Keflavik IF 1 887 7.22% 20.81%
23 1988-06-20 33.7 Fram Reykjavik 4 1285 58.58% @ KA Akureyri 1 1019 19.37% 22.05%
24 1988-07-11 33.8 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1012 46.99% KR Reykjavik 0 1057 30.67% 22.34%
25 1988-06-27 33.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1154 67.10% Keflavik IF 1 991 11.42% 21.48%