1987 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

37 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1985.0

Relegated

FH Hafnarfjordur

16 pts

Vidir Gardur · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KA Akureyri

6.12 points above expected

21 points · 14.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KR Reykjavik

6.66 points below expected

25 points · 31.66 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik Champion	18	10	7	1	37	30	10	+20	34.23	+2.77
2	Fram Reykjavik	18	9	5	4	32	33	21	+12	31.21	+0.79
3	IA Akranes	18	9	3	6	30	36	30	+6	29.44	+0.56
4	Thor Akureyri	18	9	2	7	29	33	33	0	23.72	+5.28
5	KR Reykjavik	18	7	4	7	25	28	22	+6	31.66	-6.66
6	Keflavik IF	18	5	6	7	21	22	30	-8	24.04	-3.04
7	KA Akureyri	18	5	6	7	21	18	17	+1	14.88	+6.12
8	IF Volsungur	18	4	5	9	17	20	32	-12	19.26	-2.26
9	Vidir Gardur Relegated	18	3	8	7	17	20	33	-13	19.78	-2.78
10	FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated	18	4	4	10	16	22	34	-12	18.26	-2.26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KA Akureyri	21	14.88	+6.12
2	Thor Akureyri	29	23.72	+5.28
3	Valur Reykjavik	37	34.23	+2.77
4	Fram Reykjavik	32	31.21	+0.79
5	IA Akranes	30	29.44	+0.56

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KR Reykjavik	25	31.66	-6.66
2	Keflavik IF	21	24.04	-3.04
3	Vidir Gardur	17	19.78	-2.78
4	IF Volsungur	17	19.26	-2.26
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	16	18.26	-2.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Thor Akureyri	5	Jun 28 – Jul 26	1 in 92
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	Jul 17 – Jul 27	1 in 37
3	Vidir Gardur	2	Sep 5 – Sep 12	1 in 32
4	KA Akureyri	2	Jun 10 – Jun 15	1 in 26
5	Valur Reykjavik	5	May 31 – Jun 21	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	5	Aug 16 – Sep 12	1 in 695
2	Keflavik IF	4	Jul 4 – Jul 26	1 in 70
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	Jun 10 – Jun 28	1 in 23
4	Thor Akureyri	3	May 29 – Jun 10	1 in 19
5	IF Volsungur	4	Jul 26 – Aug 8	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KA Akureyri	4	Jun 10 – Jun 28	1 in 22
2	IF Volsungur	5	Jun 14 – Jul 19	1 in 15
3	Valur Reykjavik	11	Jul 6 – Sep 12	1 in 14
4	Thor Akureyri	6	Jun 28 – Jul 29	1 in 9
5	Keflavik IF	5	Aug 16 – Sep 12	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vidir Gardur	11	May 21 – Jul 26	1 in 58
2	Keflavik IF	7	Jun 28 – Aug 9	1 in 29
3	KR Reykjavik	5	Aug 16 – Sep 12	1 in 20
4	Valur Reykjavik	4	Jun 30 – Jul 20	1 in 19
5	Fram Reykjavik	3	Jun 8 – Jun 15	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik	1132	37	+10	9	9.1	-0.1
Fram Reykjavik	1092	32	+8	11	9.3	+1.7
IA Akranes	1059	30	-3	7	8.2	-1.2
Thor Akureyri	983	29	-6	7	7.5	-0.5
KR Reykjavik	1050	25	-33	0	8.0	-8.0
Keflavik IF	980	21	+7	9	7.1	+1.9
KA Akureyri	867	21	+5	6	4.3	+1.7
Vidir Gardur	905	17	+8	7	4.9	+2.1
IF Volsungur	900	17	-4	5	5.7	-0.7
FH Hafnarfjordur	888	16	+9	5	4.4	+0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FH	FR	IA	IV	KA	KR	KI	TA	VR	VG
FH Hafnarfjordur	—	0-0-2 1.41	1-0-1 1.55	0-1-1 2.50	0-1-1 3.03	1-0-1 1.49	1-0-1 1.89	1-0-1 1.90	0-1-1 1.25	0-1-1 2.51
Fram Reykjavik	2-0-0 4.14	—	1-1-0 2.84	2-0-0 3.97	1-0-1 4.34	0-1-1 2.75	1-1-0 3.50	0-0-2 3.53	1-1-0 2.37	1-1-0 3.93
IA Akranes	1-0-1 3.98	0-1-1 2.57	—	2-0-0 3.74	1-1-0 4.18	2-0-0 2.55	2-0-0 3.27	1-0-1 3.38	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 3.91
IF Volsungur	1-1-0 2.92	0-0-2 1.55	0-0-2 1.74	—	0-1-1 3.20	0-0-2 1.60	1-0-1 2.14	1-0-1 2.16	0-2-0 1.34	1-1-0 2.64
KA Akureyri	1-1-0 2.39	1-0-1 1.26	0-1-1 1.38	1-1-0 2.23	—	0-0-2 1.25	0-2-0 1.75	0-1-1 1.77	0-0-2 1.13	2-0-0 1.99
KR Reykjavik	1-0-1 4.04	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.86	2-0-0 3.92	2-0-0 4.34	—	0-1-1 3.46	1-0-1 3.48	0-1-1 2.31	0-1-1 3.94
Keflavik IF	1-0-1 3.57	0-1-1 1.95	0-0-2 2.16	1-0-1 3.29	0-2-0 3.73	1-1-0 1.99	—	1-1-0 2.68	0-0-2 1.88	1-1-0 3.28
Thor Akureyri	1-0-1 3.56	2-0-0 1.92	1-0-1 2.06	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 3.71	1-0-1 1.97	0-1-1 2.73	—	0-0-2 1.78	2-0-0 3.22
Valur Reykjavik	1-1-0 4.35	0-1-1 3.04	2-0-0 3.17	0-2-0 4.24	2-0-0 4.50	1-1-0 3.11	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.70	—	0-2-0 4.01
Vidir Gardur	1-1-0 2.91	0-1-1 1.59	1-1-0 1.60	0-1-1 2.77	0-0-2 3.46	1-1-0 1.57	0-1-1 2.15	0-0-2 2.21	0-2-0 1.52	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+9.2
Allowed	0.39	-5.5
Differential	0.89	+6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.22%	7.22%	4.44%	1.67%	—	2.22%	27.78%
1	7.22%	12.22%	7.78%	5.00%	1.67%	0.56%	34.44%
2	4.44%	7.78%	1.11%	1.67%	1.67%	1.67%	18.33%
3	1.67%	5.00%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	—	10.00%
4	—	1.67%	1.67%	0.56%	1.11%	—	5.00%
5+	2.22%	0.56%	1.67%	—	—	—	4.44%
Total	27.78%	34.44%	18.33%	10.00%	5.00%	4.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.46	1.46	+0.00
SD	1.43	1.43	1.98
CV	0.98	0.98	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	44.44%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.89	-0.67
SD	1.17	1.45	1.61
CV	0.95	0.77	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	38.89%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.17	+0.67
SD	1.54	1.38	2.00
CV	0.84	1.19	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.67	+0.33
SD	1.64	1.24	1.50
CV	0.82	0.74	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
1	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.78	-0.67
SD	1.18	1.63	1.88
CV	1.06	0.92	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	0.94	+0.06
SD	1.50	0.87	1.89
CV	1.50	0.92	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.22	+0.33
SD	1.29	1.00	1.91
CV	0.83	0.82	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	—	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.67	-0.44
SD	1.11	1.94	1.98
CV	0.91	1.16	—
Max	4	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	44.44%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.83	+0.00
SD	1.58	1.50	2.59
CV	0.86	0.82	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	55.56%	—	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	0.56	+1.11
SD	1.64	0.51	1.60
CV	0.99	0.92	—
Max	7	1	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	38.89%
1	—	22.22%	—	16.67%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	27.78%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.83	-0.72
SD	1.41	1.79	2.16
CV	1.27	0.98	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valur Reykjavik	1132	37	34.23	+2.77	73.0%	24	27	30	34	38	43	47
Fram Reykjavik	1092	32	31.21	+0.79	60.0%	19	23	28	31	35	39	44
IA Akranes	1059	30	29.44	+0.56	60.0%	16	20	25	29	33	39	43
KR Reykjavik	1050	25	31.66	-6.66	10.0%	18	23	28	32	35	40	41
Thor Akureyri	983	29	23.72	+5.28	89.0%	14	16	20	24	27	32	34
Keflavik IF	980	21	24.04	-3.04	38.0%	12	16	20	24	28	33	37
Vidir Gardur	905	17	19.78	-2.78	36.0%	5	11	16	20	24	30	34
IF Volsungur	900	17	19.26	-2.26	35.0%	6	10	15	19	24	27	31
FH Hafnarfjordur	888	16	18.26	-2.26	37.0%	5	11	15	18	22	26	28
KA Akureyri	867	21	14.88	+6.12	93.0%	8	9	12	15	17	23	25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+1.11%

No Edge

36.67%27.78%35.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.

236 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.31 goals

Neutral

-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

43%

Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Comfortable

00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.1 * Some Luck: 4.1 to 6.14 * Lucky: 6.14 to 8.19 * Wild Swing: 8.19 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.71 * Off: 1.71 to 2.28 * Way Off: 2.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.87 * A Surprise: 0.87 to 1.39 * Several Surprises: 1.39 to 1.91 * Many Surprises: 1.91 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.81 points

As Expected

05.1213

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

01.423

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

93.00%

KA Akureyri

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

10.00%

KR Reykjavik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Balanced

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 94.18

1.32

Coin-Flip Parity

0.71.351.652.5

Interquartile Edge

71%

Clear Edge

50%63%69%75.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Clear Edge

50%86%100%

Close Games

Expected

62%

Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Occasional

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.36

Notable Separation

00.280.360.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.67

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.84

Near-Lock

00.330.590.751

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.

Probability calibration

0.86

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.81

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.093

Well Within Noise

00.1850.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valur Reykjavik	43.00%	23.00%	17.00%	11.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Fram Reykjavik	20.00%	23.00%	27.00%	14.00%	7.00%	7.00%	—	2.00%	—	—
IA Akranes	12.00%	22.00%	13.00%	21.00%	14.00%	8.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Thor Akureyri	—	3.00%	8.00%	16.00%	19.00%	15.00%	20.00%	12.00%	5.00%	2.00%
KR Reykjavik	23.00%	25.00%	22.00%	15.00%	6.00%	6.00%	—	3.00%	—	—
Keflavik IF	1.00%	3.00%	9.00%	12.00%	17.00%	17.00%	22.00%	9.00%	6.00%	4.00%
KA Akureyri	—	—	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	5.00%	14.00%	36.00%	38.00%
IF Volsungur	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	10.00%	18.00%	15.00%	17.00%	16.00%	17.00%
Vidir Gardur	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	11.00%	14.00%	15.00%	16.00%	18.00%	18.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	9.00%	9.00%	17.00%	24.00%	18.00%	21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik	100%	—
KR Reykjavik	100%	—
Valur Reykjavik	100%	—
IA Akranes	99.00%	1.00%
Thor Akureyri	93.00%	7.00%
Keflavik IF	90.00%	10.00%
IF Volsungur	67.00%	33.00%
Vidir Gardur	64.00%	36.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur	61.00%	39.00%
KA Akureyri	26.00%	74.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1987-05-21	IA Akranes	L 0-1	35.9	900	1059	18.84%	24.85%	56.31%	-0.66	-2.2	0
1987-05-21	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	35.9	1059	900	56.31%	24.85%	18.84%	+0.66	+2.2	3
1987-05-21	Thor Akureyri	L 1-3	47.7	1081	975	50.55%	27.01%	22.44%	+0.47	-8.2	0
1987-05-21	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-1	47.7	975	1081	22.44%	27.01%	50.55%	-0.47	+8.2	3
1987-05-21	Keflavik IF	L 2-4	44.4	918	997	25.89%	28.29%	45.81%	-0.32	-4.4	0
1987-05-21	@ IF Volsungur	W 4-2	44.4	997	918	45.81%	28.29%	25.89%	+0.32	+4.4	3
1987-05-21	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	33.4	832	1059	14.55%	20.86%	64.59%	-0.95	-1.7	0
1987-05-21	@ KA Akureyri	W 1-0	33.4	1059	832	64.59%	20.86%	14.55%	+0.95	+1.7	3
1987-05-21	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	52.3	939	1096	18.98%	24.96%	56.06%	-0.65	+0.8	1
1987-05-21	@ Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	52.3	1096	939	56.06%	24.96%	18.98%	+0.65	-0.8	1
1987-05-29	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	30.1	1061	898	57.80%	24.20%	17.99%	+0.71	+5.8	6
1987-05-29	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	30.1	898	1061	17.99%	24.20%	57.80%	-0.71	-5.8	0
1987-05-29	IF Volsungur	L 0-1	45.0	984	914	45.67%	28.32%	26.00%	+0.31	-4.6	3
1987-05-29	@ Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	45.0	914	984	26.00%	28.32%	45.67%	-0.31	+4.6	3
1987-05-29	KA Akureyri	L 0-1	46.2	940	830	51.00%	26.86%	22.14%	+0.48	-5.1	1
1987-05-29	@ Vidir Gardur	W 1-0	46.2	830	940	22.14%	26.86%	51.00%	-0.48	+5.1	3
1987-05-30	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	43.5	1061	1073	34.10%	29.45%	36.45%	-0.03	-6.1	3
1987-05-30	@ IA Akranes	W 3-1	43.5	1073	1061	36.45%	29.45%	34.10%	+0.03	+6.1	3
1987-05-31	Keflavik IF	W 7-1	34.9	1095	1001	48.88%	27.51%	23.61%	+0.41	+12.1	4
1987-05-31	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-7	34.9	1001	1095	23.61%	27.51%	48.88%	-0.41	-12.1	3
1987-06-06	Vidir Gardur	D 0-0	47.1	892	935	30.08%	29.15%	40.77%	-0.16	+0.2	1
1987-06-06	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	47.1	935	892	40.77%	29.15%	30.08%	+0.16	-0.2	2
1987-06-06	IA Akranes	L 1-2	41.3	918	1055	20.50%	25.97%	53.53%	-0.56	-2.3	3
1987-06-06	@ IF Volsungur	W 2-1	41.3	1055	918	53.53%	25.97%	20.50%	+0.56	+2.3	6
1987-06-06	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	32.0	835	1107	12.36%	18.17%	69.48%	-1.13	-1.4	3
1987-06-06	@ KA Akureyri	W 1-0	32.0	1107	835	69.48%	18.17%	12.36%	+1.13	+1.4	7
1987-06-06	Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	38.5	989	979	37.28%	29.42%	33.29%	+0.06	+7.0	6
1987-06-06	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-2	38.5	979	989	33.29%	29.42%	37.28%	-0.06	-7.0	3
1987-06-08	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	51.0	1079	1067	37.62%	29.41%	32.97%	+0.07	-0.1	4
1987-06-08	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	51.0	1067	1079	32.97%	29.41%	37.62%	-0.07	+0.1	7
1987-06-10	Keflavik IF	W 4-2	44.8	1057	996	44.50%	28.57%	26.94%	+0.28	+4.6	9
1987-06-10	@ IA Akranes	L 2-4	44.8	996	1057	26.94%	28.57%	44.50%	-0.28	-4.6	6
1987-06-10	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	48.9	834	892	28.11%	28.83%	43.06%	-0.23	+4.2	6
1987-06-10	@ KA Akureyri	L 1-2	48.9	892	834	43.06%	28.83%	28.11%	+0.23	-4.2	1
1987-06-10	Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	33.3	1108	972	54.45%	25.61%	19.94%	+0.59	+4.5	10
1987-06-10	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	33.3	972	1108	19.94%	25.61%	54.45%	-0.59	-4.5	3
1987-06-11	IF Volsungur	W 2-0	32.7	1067	916	56.31%	24.86%	18.84%	+0.66	+4.2	10
1987-06-11	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	32.7	916	1067	18.84%	24.86%	56.31%	-0.66	-4.2	3
1987-06-11	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	52.1	934	1079	19.86%	25.56%	54.58%	-0.60	+0.8	3
1987-06-11	@ Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	52.1	1079	934	54.58%	25.56%	19.86%	+0.60	-0.8	5
1987-06-14	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	35.1	888	1113	14.73%	21.06%	64.22%	-0.93	-2.8	1
1987-06-14	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	35.1	1113	888	64.22%	21.06%	14.73%	+0.93	+2.8	13
1987-06-14	Vidir Gardur	D 0-0	47.1	912	935	32.56%	29.38%	38.06%	-0.08	+0.1	4
1987-06-14	@ IF Volsungur	D 0-0	47.1	935	912	38.06%	29.38%	32.56%	+0.08	-0.1	4
1987-06-14	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	51.3	991	1071	25.78%	28.26%	45.96%	-0.32	+0.4	7
1987-06-14	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	51.3	1071	991	45.96%	28.26%	25.78%	+0.32	-0.4	11
1987-06-14	IA Akranes	W 2-1	50.1	967	1062	24.27%	27.77%	47.97%	-0.38	+4.5	6
1987-06-14	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	50.1	1062	967	47.97%	27.77%	24.27%	+0.38	-4.5	9
1987-06-15	KA Akureyri	L 0-1	48.8	1079	838	66.93%	19.60%	13.48%	+1.04	-6.2	5
1987-06-15	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	48.8	838	1079	13.48%	19.60%	66.93%	-1.04	+6.2	9
1987-06-18	Thor Akureyri	W 5-0	31.9	1071	972	49.57%	27.31%	23.12%	+0.43	+12.1	14
1987-06-18	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-5	31.9	972	1071	23.12%	27.31%	49.57%	-0.43	-12.1	6
1987-06-19	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	34.9	886	1072	16.93%	23.29%	59.78%	-0.78	-2.0	1
1987-06-19	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	34.9	1072	886	59.78%	23.29%	16.93%	+0.78	+2.0	8
1987-06-19	IF Volsungur	D 1-1	51.2	844	912	27.08%	28.60%	44.32%	-0.27	+0.4	10
1987-06-19	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	51.2	912	844	44.32%	28.60%	27.08%	+0.27	-0.4	5
1987-06-19	Keflavik IF	L 1-3	41.6	935	992	28.33%	28.87%	42.81%	-0.22	-5.3	4
1987-06-19	@ Vidir Gardur	W 3-1	41.6	992	935	42.81%	28.87%	28.33%	+0.22	+5.3	10
1987-06-21	IA Akranes	W 2-1	44.2	1115	1057	44.04%	28.66%	27.31%	+0.26	+3.0	16
1987-06-21	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	44.2	1057	1115	27.31%	28.66%	44.04%	-0.26	-3.0	9
1987-06-28	KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	47.8	1054	1083	31.88%	29.33%	38.79%	-0.10	+3.9	12
1987-06-28	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	47.8	1083	1054	38.79%	29.33%	31.88%	+0.10	-3.9	14
1987-06-28	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 4-1	39.9	912	884	39.83%	29.25%	30.92%	+0.14	+8.1	8
1987-06-28	@ IF Volsungur	L 1-4	39.9	884	912	30.92%	29.25%	39.83%	-0.14	-8.1	1
1987-06-28	KA Akureyri	D 1-1	52.4	997	845	56.53%	24.76%	18.71%	+0.66	-0.8	11
1987-06-28	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	52.4	845	997	18.71%	24.76%	56.53%	-0.66	+0.8	11
1987-06-28	Vidir Gardur	W 5-0	34.7	960	930	40.14%	29.22%	30.64%	+0.14	+15.3	9
1987-06-28	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-5	34.7	930	960	30.64%	29.22%	40.14%	-0.14	-15.3	4
1987-06-30	Valur Reykjavik	W 1-0	43.9	1074	1118	29.88%	29.12%	41.00%	-0.17	+4.3	11
1987-06-30	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	43.9	1118	1074	41.00%	29.12%	29.88%	+0.17	-4.3	16
1987-07-03	IA Akranes	D 0-0	48.2	914	1058	19.94%	25.62%	54.45%	-0.59	+0.9	5
1987-07-03	@ Vidir Gardur	D 0-0	48.2	1058	914	54.45%	25.62%	19.94%	+0.59	-0.8	13
1987-07-04	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	50.8	875	996	21.82%	26.70%	51.48%	-0.50	+4.8	4
1987-07-04	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	50.8	996	875	51.48%	26.70%	21.82%	+0.50	-4.8	11
1987-07-04	Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	41.6	845	975	21.06%	26.30%	52.64%	-0.53	-2.4	11
1987-07-04	@ KA Akureyri	W 2-1	41.6	975	845	52.64%	26.30%	21.06%	+0.53	+2.4	12
1987-07-06	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	51.1	1114	1079	40.84%	29.14%	30.02%	+0.17	-0.2	17
1987-07-06	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	51.1	1079	1114	30.02%	29.14%	40.84%	-0.17	+0.2	15
1987-07-12	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	33.6	1057	843	63.96%	21.19%	14.85%	+0.92	+1.7	16
1987-07-12	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	33.6	843	1057	14.85%	21.19%	63.96%	-0.92	-1.7	11
1987-07-12	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	49.0	920	1114	16.47%	22.86%	60.67%	-0.81	+1.1	9
1987-07-12	@ IF Volsungur	D 0-0	49.0	1114	920	60.67%	22.86%	16.47%	+0.81	-1.1	18
1987-07-12	Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	52.6	1079	915	57.93%	24.15%	17.93%	+0.71	-0.9	16
1987-07-12	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	52.6	915	1079	17.93%	24.15%	57.93%	-0.71	+0.9	6
1987-07-12	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 4-2	43.4	978	880	49.38%	27.37%	23.25%	+0.43	+4.0	15
1987-07-12	@ Thor Akureyri	L 2-4	43.4	880	978	23.25%	27.37%	49.38%	-0.43	-4.0	4
1987-07-15	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	35.6	992	1079	25.01%	28.02%	46.97%	-0.35	-5.5	11
1987-07-15	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-0	35.6	1079	992	46.97%	28.02%	25.01%	+0.35	+5.5	14
1987-07-17	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	52.4	1059	876	60.24%	23.07%	16.69%	+0.79	-5.4	16
1987-07-17	@ IA Akranes	W 2-1	52.4	876	1059	16.69%	23.07%	60.24%	-0.79	+5.4	7
1987-07-19	IF Volsungur	L 0-1	44.9	986	921	45.04%	28.46%	26.50%	+0.29	-4.6	11
1987-07-19	@ Keflavik IF	W 1-0	44.9	921	986	26.50%	28.46%	45.04%	-0.29	+4.6	12
1987-07-19	KA Akureyri	W 2-0	29.7	1078	841	66.53%	19.81%	13.66%	+1.02	+2.9	19
1987-07-19	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	29.7	841	1078	13.66%	19.81%	66.53%	-1.02	-2.9	11
1987-07-19	Fram Reykjavik	W 4-1	44.9	982	1084	23.48%	27.46%	49.05%	-0.42	+11.3	18
1987-07-19	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-4	44.9	1084	982	49.05%	27.46%	23.48%	+0.42	-11.3	14
1987-07-20	Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	53.1	1113	916	61.88%	22.26%	15.86%	+0.85	-1.0	19
1987-07-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	53.1	916	1113	15.86%	22.26%	61.88%	-0.85	+1.0	7
1987-07-26	IA Akranes	D 4-4	61.7	1073	1054	38.56%	29.35%	32.09%	+0.10	-0.1	15
1987-07-26	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 4-4	61.7	1054	1073	32.09%	29.35%	38.56%	-0.10	+0.1	17
1987-07-26	Thor Akureyri	L 0-1	39.5	925	993	27.10%	28.61%	44.30%	-0.27	-3.1	12
1987-07-26	@ IF Volsungur	W 1-0	39.5	993	925	44.30%	28.61%	27.10%	+0.27	+3.1	21
1987-07-26	Vidir Gardur	W 6-0	39.7	838	917	25.88%	28.29%	45.83%	-0.32	+24.4	14
1987-07-26	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-6	39.7	917	838	45.83%	28.29%	25.88%	+0.32	-24.4	7
1987-07-26	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	41.6	981	1112	21.03%	26.27%	52.70%	-0.54	-2.4	11
1987-07-26	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	41.6	1112	981	52.70%	26.27%	21.03%	+0.54	+2.4	22
1987-07-27	KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	52.5	882	1081	16.15%	22.55%	61.30%	-0.83	+5.5	10
1987-07-27	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	52.5	1081	882	61.30%	22.55%	16.15%	+0.83	-5.5	19
1987-07-29	IF Volsungur	W 2-1	41.2	1054	922	53.86%	25.84%	20.30%	+0.57	+2.3	20
1987-07-29	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	41.2	922	1054	20.30%	25.84%	53.86%	-0.57	-2.3	12
1987-07-29	Keflavik IF	D 2-2	55.8	996	979	38.26%	29.37%	32.36%	+0.09	-0.1	22
1987-07-29	@ Thor Akureyri	D 2-2	55.8	979	996	32.36%	29.37%	38.26%	-0.09	+0.1	12
1987-07-29	KA Akureyri	W 2-1	36.9	1114	863	68.11%	18.94%	12.95%	+1.08	+1.4	25
1987-07-29	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	36.9	863	1114	12.95%	18.94%	68.11%	-1.08	-1.3	14
1987-07-30	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	51.0	1076	1073	36.24%	29.45%	34.30%	+0.03	+3.4	22
1987-07-30	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	51.0	1073	1076	34.30%	29.45%	36.24%	-0.03	-3.4	15
1987-07-30	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 5-2	43.8	893	887	36.63%	29.44%	33.93%	+0.04	+7.5	10
1987-07-30	@ Vidir Gardur	L 2-5	43.8	887	893	33.93%	29.44%	36.63%	-0.04	-7.5	10
1987-08-05	IF Volsungur	W 6-0	30.6	1069	920	56.13%	24.93%	18.94%	+0.65	+11.8	18
1987-08-05	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-6	30.6	920	1069	18.94%	24.93%	56.13%	-0.65	-11.8	12
1987-08-07	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	32.1	996	1115	21.95%	26.77%	51.28%	-0.49	-7.1	22
1987-08-07	@ Thor Akureyri	W 3-0	32.1	1115	996	51.28%	26.77%	21.95%	+0.49	+7.1	28
1987-08-08	KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	37.1	908	1079	17.98%	24.19%	57.84%	-0.71	-3.5	12
1987-08-08	@ IF Volsungur	W 3-1	37.1	1079	908	57.84%	24.19%	17.98%	+0.71	+3.5	25
1987-08-09	KA Akureyri	D 0-0	47.1	880	861	38.43%	29.36%	32.21%	+0.09	-0.1	11
1987-08-09	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	47.1	861	880	32.21%	29.36%	38.43%	-0.09	+0.1	15
1987-08-09	IA Akranes	L 2-5	41.1	979	1056	26.07%	28.34%	45.58%	-0.31	-6.1	12
1987-08-09	@ Keflavik IF	W 5-2	41.1	1056	979	45.58%	28.34%	26.07%	+0.31	+6.1	23
1987-08-10	Vidir Gardur	W 3-1	36.4	1081	900	60.01%	23.18%	16.81%	+0.78	+3.2	21
1987-08-10	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	36.4	900	1081	16.81%	23.18%	60.01%	-0.78	-3.2	10
1987-08-16	Thor Akureyri	W 5-2	41.0	1062	989	46.14%	28.22%	25.64%	+0.33	+6.0	26
1987-08-16	@ IA Akranes	L 2-5	41.0	989	1062	25.64%	28.22%	46.14%	-0.33	-6.0	22
1987-08-16	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	28.2	862	1084	14.81%	21.15%	64.04%	-0.93	-4.7	15
1987-08-16	@ KA Akureyri	W 3-0	28.2	1084	862	64.04%	21.15%	14.81%	+0.93	+4.7	24
1987-08-16	Keflavik IF	L 0-1	46.2	1083	973	50.99%	26.86%	22.15%	+0.48	-5.1	25
1987-08-16	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	46.2	973	1083	22.15%	26.86%	50.99%	-0.48	+5.1	15
1987-08-16	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	54.0	1123	880	67.21%	19.44%	13.35%	+1.05	-1.2	29
1987-08-16	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.0	880	1123	13.35%	19.44%	67.21%	-1.05	+1.2	12
1987-08-16	IF Volsungur	L 2-3	51.1	897	905	34.72%	29.46%	35.82%	-0.02	-3.4	10
1987-08-16	@ Vidir Gardur	W 3-2	51.1	905	897	35.82%	29.46%	34.72%	+0.02	+3.4	15
1987-08-19	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	38.4	1089	881	63.26%	21.56%	15.18%	+0.90	+1.7	27
1987-08-19	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	38.4	881	1089	15.18%	21.56%	63.26%	-0.90	-1.6	12
1987-08-19	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	37.0	1068	1121	28.76%	28.95%	42.29%	-0.21	-6.2	26
1987-08-19	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	37.0	1121	1068	42.29%	28.95%	28.76%	+0.21	+6.2	32
1987-08-19	KA Akureyri	L 1-3	46.0	908	857	43.08%	28.82%	28.10%	+0.23	-7.3	15
1987-08-19	@ IF Volsungur	W 3-1	46.0	857	908	28.10%	28.82%	43.08%	-0.23	+7.3	18
1987-08-19	Vidir Gardur	D 0-0	47.5	978	894	47.67%	27.84%	24.49%	+0.37	-0.6	16
1987-08-19	@ Keflavik IF	D 0-0	47.5	894	978	24.49%	27.84%	47.67%	-0.37	+0.5	11
1987-08-19	KR Reykjavik	W 3-1	47.1	983	1077	24.25%	27.76%	47.99%	-0.38	+7.9	25
1987-08-19	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-3	47.1	1077	983	47.99%	27.76%	24.25%	+0.38	-7.9	25
1987-08-23	IF Volsungur	D 3-3	59.5	879	901	32.77%	29.40%	37.83%	-0.08	+0.1	13
1987-08-23	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 3-3	59.5	901	879	37.83%	29.40%	32.77%	+0.08	-0.1	16
1987-08-23	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	47.8	864	978	22.49%	27.03%	50.48%	-0.46	+0.7	19
1987-08-23	@ KA Akureyri	D 0-0	47.8	978	864	50.48%	27.03%	22.49%	+0.46	-0.7	17
1987-08-23	IA Akranes	L 2-3	51.8	1070	1062	36.92%	29.44%	33.64%	+0.05	-3.5	25
1987-08-23	@ KR Reykjavik	W 3-2	51.8	1062	1070	33.64%	29.44%	36.92%	-0.05	+3.6	29
1987-08-23	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	47.2	1128	1091	41.08%	29.11%	29.81%	+0.17	-0.3	33
1987-08-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	47.2	1091	1128	29.81%	29.11%	41.08%	-0.17	+0.3	28
1987-08-23	Thor Akureyri	L 1-3	39.9	894	991	24.06%	27.69%	48.25%	-0.39	-4.6	11
1987-08-23	@ Vidir Gardur	W 3-1	39.9	991	894	48.25%	27.69%	24.06%	+0.39	+4.6	28
1987-09-05	Vidir Gardur	L 3-4	59.6	1066	890	59.40%	23.47%	17.13%	+0.76	-5.0	29
1987-09-05	@ IA Akranes	W 4-3	59.6	890	1066	17.13%	23.47%	59.40%	-0.76	+5.0	14
1987-09-05	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	39.3	901	1091	16.72%	23.09%	60.19%	-0.79	-1.9	16
1987-09-05	@ IF Volsungur	W 2-1	39.3	1091	901	60.19%	23.09%	16.72%	+0.79	+1.8	31
1987-09-05	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	38.0	977	879	49.44%	27.35%	23.21%	+0.43	+2.8	20
1987-09-05	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	38.0	879	977	23.21%	27.35%	49.44%	-0.43	-2.8	13
1987-09-05	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	36.6	1066	1127	27.81%	28.77%	43.42%	-0.24	-6.1	25
1987-09-05	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	36.6	1127	1066	43.42%	28.77%	27.81%	+0.24	+6.1	36
1987-09-05	KA Akureyri	D 1-1	52.0	995	865	53.72%	25.90%	20.39%	+0.57	-0.7	29
1987-09-05	@ Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	52.0	865	995	20.39%	25.90%	53.72%	-0.57	+0.7	20
1987-09-12	Thor Akureyri	W 4-1	45.3	876	995	22.05%	26.82%	51.13%	-0.48	+11.7	16
1987-09-12	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-4	45.3	995	876	51.13%	26.82%	22.05%	+0.48	-11.7	29
1987-09-12	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	47.9	1093	980	51.48%	26.70%	21.82%	+0.50	-0.7	32
1987-09-12	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	47.9	980	1093	21.82%	26.70%	51.48%	-0.50	+0.7	21
1987-09-12	IA Akranes	D 0-0	49.0	866	1061	16.42%	22.82%	60.76%	-0.81	+1.1	21
1987-09-12	@ KA Akureyri	D 0-0	49.0	1061	866	60.76%	22.82%	16.42%	+0.81	-1.1	30
1987-09-12	IF Volsungur	D 0-0	49.9	1133	899	66.25%	19.96%	13.78%	+1.01	-1.3	37
1987-09-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	49.9	899	1133	13.78%	19.96%	66.25%	-1.01	+1.3	17
1987-09-12	KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	44.1	894	1060	18.35%	24.48%	57.17%	-0.68	+10.4	17
1987-09-12	@ Vidir Gardur	L 0-2	44.1	1060	894	57.17%	24.48%	18.35%	+0.68	-10.4	25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1987-06-15	13.48%	KA Akureyri	838	1	@ Fram Reykjavik	1079	0
2	1987-07-27	16.15%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	882	2	KR Reykjavik	1081	1
3	1987-07-17	16.69%	FH Hafnarfjordur	876	2	@ IA Akranes	1059	1
4	1987-09-05	17.13%	Vidir Gardur	890	4	@ IA Akranes	1066	3
5	1987-09-12	18.35%	@ Vidir Gardur	894	2	KR Reykjavik	1060	0
6	1987-07-04	21.82%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	875	2	Keflavik IF	996	1
7	1987-09-12	22.05%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	876	4	Thor Akureyri	995	1
8	1987-05-29	22.14%	KA Akureyri	830	1	@ Vidir Gardur	940	0
9	1987-08-16	22.15%	Keflavik IF	973	1	@ KR Reykjavik	1083	0
10	1987-05-21	22.44%	Thor Akureyri	975	3	@ Fram Reykjavik	1081	1
11	1987-07-19	23.48%	@ Thor Akureyri	982	4	Fram Reykjavik	1084	1
12	1987-08-19	24.25%	@ Thor Akureyri	983	3	KR Reykjavik	1077	1
13	1987-06-14	24.27%	@ Thor Akureyri	967	2	IA Akranes	1062	1
14	1987-07-26	25.88%	@ KA Akureyri	838	6	Vidir Gardur	917	0
15	1987-05-29	26.00%	IF Volsungur	914	1	@ Thor Akureyri	984	0
16	1987-07-19	26.50%	IF Volsungur	921	1	@ Keflavik IF	986	0
17	1987-08-19	28.10%	KA Akureyri	857	3	@ IF Volsungur	908	1
18	1987-06-10	28.11%	@ KA Akureyri	834	2	FH Hafnarfjordur	892	1
19	1987-06-30	29.88%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1074	1	Valur Reykjavik	1118	0
20	1987-06-28	31.88%	@ IA Akranes	1054	2	KR Reykjavik	1083	1
21	1987-08-23	33.64%	IA Akranes	1062	3	@ KR Reykjavik	1070	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-07-26	24.42	@ KA Akureyri	6	838	25.88%	Vidir Gardur	0	917	45.83%	28.29%
2	1987-06-28	15.30	@ Thor Akureyri	5	960	40.14%	Vidir Gardur	0	930	30.64%	29.22%
3	1987-06-18	12.09	@ KR Reykjavik	5	1071	49.57%	Thor Akureyri	0	972	23.12%	27.31%
4	1987-05-31	12.08	@ Valur Reykjavik	7	1095	48.88%	Keflavik IF	1	1001	23.61%	27.51%
5	1987-08-05	11.79	@ Fram Reykjavik	6	1069	56.13%	IF Volsungur	0	920	18.94%	24.93%
6	1987-09-12	11.71	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	4	876	22.05%	Thor Akureyri	1	995	51.13%	26.82%
7	1987-07-19	11.34	@ Thor Akureyri	4	982	23.48%	Fram Reykjavik	1	1084	49.05%	27.46%
8	1987-09-12	10.40	@ Vidir Gardur	2	894	18.35%	KR Reykjavik	0	1060	57.17%	24.48%
9	1987-05-21	8.21	Thor Akureyri	3	975	22.44%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1	1081	50.55%	27.01%
10	1987-06-28	8.07	@ IF Volsungur	4	912	39.83%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	884	30.92%	29.25%
11	1987-08-19	7.88	@ Thor Akureyri	3	983	24.25%	KR Reykjavik	1	1077	47.99%	27.76%
12	1987-07-30	7.48	@ Vidir Gardur	5	893	36.63%	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	887	33.93%	29.44%
13	1987-08-19	7.27	KA Akureyri	3	857	28.10%	@ IF Volsungur	1	908	43.08%	28.82%
14	1987-08-07	7.15	Valur Reykjavik	3	1115	51.28%	@ Thor Akureyri	0	996	21.95%	26.77%
15	1987-06-06	6.96	@ Keflavik IF	2	989	37.28%	Thor Akureyri	0	979	33.29%	29.42%
16	1987-08-19	6.23	Valur Reykjavik	2	1121	42.29%	@ IA Akranes	0	1068	28.76%	28.95%
17	1987-06-15	6.18	KA Akureyri	1	838	13.48%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1079	66.93%	19.60%
18	1987-05-30	6.13	Fram Reykjavik	3	1073	36.45%	@ IA Akranes	1	1061	34.10%	29.45%
19	1987-08-09	6.10	IA Akranes	5	1056	45.58%	@ Keflavik IF	2	979	26.07%	28.34%
20	1987-09-05	6.07	Valur Reykjavik	2	1127	43.42%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1066	27.81%	28.77%
21	1987-08-16	6.01	@ IA Akranes	5	1062	46.14%	Thor Akureyri	2	989	25.64%	28.22%
22	1987-05-29	5.84	@ KR Reykjavik	3	1061	57.80%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	898	17.99%	24.20%
23	1987-07-15	5.55	Fram Reykjavik	2	1079	46.97%	@ Keflavik IF	0	992	25.01%	28.02%
24	1987-07-27	5.48	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	882	16.15%	KR Reykjavik	1	1081	61.30%	22.55%
25	1987-07-17	5.41	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	876	16.69%	@ IA Akranes	1	1059	60.24%	23.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-07-26	61.7	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	1073	38.56%	IA Akranes	4	1054	32.09%	29.35%
2	1987-09-05	59.6	Vidir Gardur	4	890	17.13%	@ IA Akranes	3	1066	59.40%	23.47%
3	1987-08-23	59.5	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	3	879	32.77%	IF Volsungur	3	901	37.83%	29.40%
4	1987-07-29	55.8	@ Thor Akureyri	2	996	38.26%	Keflavik IF	2	979	32.36%	29.37%
5	1987-08-16	54.0	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1123	67.21%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	880	13.35%	19.44%
6	1987-07-20	53.1	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1113	61.88%	Vidir Gardur	1	916	15.86%	22.26%
7	1987-07-12	52.6	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1079	57.93%	Vidir Gardur	1	915	17.93%	24.15%
8	1987-07-27	52.5	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	882	16.15%	KR Reykjavik	1	1081	61.30%	22.55%
9	1987-06-28	52.4	@ Keflavik IF	1	997	56.53%	KA Akureyri	1	845	18.71%	24.76%
10	1987-07-17	52.4	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	876	16.69%	@ IA Akranes	1	1059	60.24%	23.07%
11	1987-05-21	52.3	@ Vidir Gardur	1	939	18.98%	Valur Reykjavik	1	1096	56.06%	24.96%
12	1987-06-11	52.1	@ Vidir Gardur	1	934	19.86%	Fram Reykjavik	1	1079	54.58%	25.56%
13	1987-09-05	52.0	@ Thor Akureyri	1	995	53.72%	KA Akureyri	1	865	20.39%	25.90%
14	1987-08-23	51.8	IA Akranes	3	1062	33.64%	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1070	36.92%	29.44%
15	1987-06-14	51.3	@ Keflavik IF	1	991	25.78%	KR Reykjavik	1	1071	45.96%	28.26%
16	1987-06-19	51.2	@ KA Akureyri	1	844	27.08%	IF Volsungur	1	912	44.32%	28.60%
17	1987-07-06	51.1	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1114	40.84%	KR Reykjavik	1	1079	30.02%	29.14%
18	1987-08-16	51.1	IF Volsungur	3	905	35.82%	@ Vidir Gardur	2	897	34.72%	29.46%
19	1987-06-08	51.0	@ Fram Reykjavik	1	1079	37.62%	KR Reykjavik	1	1067	32.97%	29.41%
20	1987-07-30	51.0	@ KR Reykjavik	3	1076	36.24%	Fram Reykjavik	2	1073	34.30%	29.45%
21	1987-07-04	50.8	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	875	21.82%	Keflavik IF	1	996	51.48%	26.70%
22	1987-06-14	50.1	@ Thor Akureyri	2	967	24.27%	IA Akranes	1	1062	47.97%	27.77%
23	1987-09-12	49.9	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1133	66.25%	IF Volsungur	0	899	13.78%	19.96%
24	1987-07-12	49.0	@ IF Volsungur	0	920	16.47%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1114	60.67%	22.86%
25	1987-09-12	49.0	@ KA Akureyri	0	866	16.42%	IA Akranes	0	1061	60.76%	22.82%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-08-16	28.2	Fram Reykjavik	3	1084	64.04%	@ KA Akureyri	0	862	14.81%	21.15%
2	1987-07-19	29.7	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1078	66.53%	KA Akureyri	0	841	13.66%	19.81%
3	1987-05-29	30.1	@ KR Reykjavik	3	1061	57.80%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	898	17.99%	24.20%
4	1987-08-05	30.6	@ Fram Reykjavik	6	1069	56.13%	IF Volsungur	0	920	18.94%	24.93%
5	1987-06-18	31.9	@ KR Reykjavik	5	1071	49.57%	Thor Akureyri	0	972	23.12%	27.31%
6	1987-06-06	32.0	Valur Reykjavik	1	1107	69.48%	@ KA Akureyri	0	835	12.36%	18.17%
7	1987-08-07	32.1	Valur Reykjavik	3	1115	51.28%	@ Thor Akureyri	0	996	21.95%	26.77%
8	1987-06-11	32.7	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1067	56.31%	IF Volsungur	0	916	18.84%	24.86%
9	1987-06-10	33.3	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1108	54.45%	Thor Akureyri	0	972	19.94%	25.61%
10	1987-05-21	33.4	KR Reykjavik	1	1059	64.59%	@ KA Akureyri	0	832	14.55%	20.86%
11	1987-07-12	33.6	@ IA Akranes	1	1057	63.96%	KA Akureyri	0	843	14.85%	21.19%
12	1987-06-28	34.7	@ Thor Akureyri	5	960	40.14%	Vidir Gardur	0	930	30.64%	29.22%
13	1987-05-31	34.9	@ Valur Reykjavik	7	1095	48.88%	Keflavik IF	1	1001	23.61%	27.51%
14	1987-06-19	34.9	Fram Reykjavik	1	1072	59.78%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	886	16.93%	23.29%
15	1987-06-14	35.1	Valur Reykjavik	3	1113	64.22%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	888	14.73%	21.06%
16	1987-07-15	35.6	Fram Reykjavik	2	1079	46.97%	@ Keflavik IF	0	992	25.01%	28.02%
17	1987-05-21	35.9	IA Akranes	1	1059	56.31%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	900	18.84%	24.85%
18	1987-08-10	36.4	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1081	60.01%	Vidir Gardur	1	900	16.81%	23.18%
19	1987-09-05	36.6	Valur Reykjavik	2	1127	43.42%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1066	27.81%	28.77%
20	1987-07-29	36.9	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1114	68.11%	KA Akureyri	1	863	12.95%	18.94%
21	1987-08-19	37.0	Valur Reykjavik	2	1121	42.29%	@ IA Akranes	0	1068	28.76%	28.95%
22	1987-08-08	37.1	KR Reykjavik	3	1079	57.84%	@ IF Volsungur	1	908	17.98%	24.19%
23	1987-09-05	38.0	@ Keflavik IF	1	977	49.44%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	879	23.21%	27.35%
24	1987-08-19	38.4	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1089	63.26%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	881	15.18%	21.56%
25	1987-06-06	38.5	@ Keflavik IF	2	989	37.28%	Thor Akureyri	0	979	33.29%	29.42%