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1987 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

37 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1985.0

Relegated

FH Hafnarfjordur

16 pts

Vidir Gardur · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KA Akureyri

5.71 points above expected

21 points · 15.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KR Reykjavik

5.90 points below expected

25 points · 30.90 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 10 7 1 37 30 10 +20 33.68 +3.32
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 9 5 4 32 33 21 +12 31.37 +0.63
3 IA Akranes 18 9 3 6 30 36 30 +6 29.81 +0.19
4 Thor Akureyri 18 9 2 7 29 33 33 0 24.17 +4.83
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 4 7 25 28 22 +6 30.90 -5.90
6 Keflavik IF 18 5 6 7 21 22 30 -8 24.54 -3.54
7 KA Akureyri 18 5 6 7 21 18 17 +1 15.29 +5.71
8 IF Volsungur 18 4 5 9 17 20 32 -12 19.30 -2.30
9 Vidir Gardur Relegated 18 3 8 7 17 20 33 -13 19.78 -2.78
10 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 22 34 -12 17.55 -1.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1149 37 33.68 +3.32 76.5% 14 25 30 34 37 42 52
Fram Reykjavik 1109 32 31.37 +0.63 57.9% 7 23 28 31 35 40 52
IA Akranes 1077 30 29.81 +0.19 55.0% 12 21 26 30 33 39 48
KR Reykjavik 1067 25 30.90 -5.90 15.1% 11 22 27 31 35 40 50
Thor Akureyri 1000 29 24.17 +4.83 84.4% 4 15 21 24 28 33 43
Keflavik IF 998 21 24.54 -3.54 28.7% 5 16 21 24 28 34 44
Vidir Gardur 922 17 19.78 -2.78 33.8% 2 12 16 20 23 28 40
IF Volsungur 919 17 19.30 -2.30 37.5% 3 11 16 19 23 28 40
FH Hafnarfjordur 906 16 17.55 -1.55 42.9% 2 10 14 17 21 26 38
KA Akureyri 887 21 15.29 +5.71 89.4% 1 8 12 15 18 24 35

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR IA IV KA KR KI TA VR VG
FH Hafnarfjordur —
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
1.55
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
3.00
1-0-1
1.49
1-0-1
1.89
1-0-1
1.90
0-1-1
1.25
0-1-1
2.51
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.14
 —
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
4.32
0-1-1
2.75
1-1-0
3.50
0-0-2
3.53
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
3.93
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.97
0-1-1
2.57
 —
2-0-0
3.72
1-1-0
4.16
2-0-0
2.55
2-0-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-2
2.26
0-1-1
3.91
IF Volsungur
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
1.76
 —
0-1-1
3.19
0-0-2
1.61
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.18
0-2-0
1.35
1-1-0
2.66
KA Akureyri
1-1-0
2.41
1-0-1
1.27
0-1-1
1.39
1-1-0
2.23
 —
0-0-2
1.27
0-2-0
1.77
0-1-1
1.78
0-0-2
1.14
2-0-0
2.01
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.04
1-1-0
2.66
0-0-2
2.86
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
4.32
 —
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
3.94
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.57
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
3.28
0-2-0
3.71
1-1-0
1.99
 —
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
3.28
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
3.56
2-0-0
1.92
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
3.25
1-1-0
3.69
1-0-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.73
 —
0-0-2
1.78
2-0-0
3.22
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
4.35
0-1-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.17
0-2-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
3.70
 —
0-2-0
4.01
Vidir Gardur
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
1.59
1-1-0
1.60
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
3.43
1-1-0
1.58
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.21
0-2-0
1.52
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +9.2
Allowed 0.39 -5.5
Differential 0.89 +6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%7.22%4.44%1.67%—2.22%27.78%
17.22%12.22%7.78%5.00%1.67%0.56%34.44%
24.44%7.78%1.11%1.67%1.67%1.67%18.33%
31.67%5.00%1.67%1.11%0.56%—10.00%
4—1.67%1.67%0.56%1.11%—5.00%
5+2.22%0.56%1.67%———4.44%
Total27.78%34.44%18.33%10.00%5.00%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.43 1.98
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—16.67%——5.56%5.56%27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%11.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.89 -0.67
SD 1.17 1.45 1.61
CV 0.95 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%—11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.17 +0.67
SD 1.54 1.38 2.00
CV 0.84 1.19 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
111.11%—16.67%5.56%——33.33%
2—16.67%————16.67%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total22.22%16.67%44.44%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.67 +0.33
SD 1.64 1.24 1.50
CV 0.82 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
111.11%5.56%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
2————5.56%—5.56%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.78 -0.67
SD 1.18 1.63 1.88
CV 1.06 0.92 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
111.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 1.50 0.87 1.89
CV 1.50 0.92 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
15.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.22 +0.33
SD 1.29 1.00 1.91
CV 0.83 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%——5.56%38.89%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 1.11 1.94 1.98
CV 0.91 1.16 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%22.22%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.58 1.50 2.59
CV 0.86 0.82 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
216.67%16.67%————33.33%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%55.56%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.56 +1.11
SD 1.64 0.51 1.60
CV 0.99 0.92 —
Max 7 1 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%———11.11%38.89%
1—22.22%—16.67%——38.89%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%5.56%27.78%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.83 -0.72
SD 1.41 1.79 2.16
CV 1.27 0.98 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 21 15.29 +5.71
2 Thor Akureyri 29 24.17 +4.83
3 Valur Reykjavik 37 33.68 +3.32
4 Fram Reykjavik 32 31.37 +0.63
5 IA Akranes 30 29.81 +0.19

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 25 30.90 -5.90
2 Keflavik IF 21 24.54 -3.54
3 Vidir Gardur 17 19.78 -2.78
4 IF Volsungur 17 19.30 -2.30
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 17.55 -1.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 5 Jun 28 – Jul 26 1 in 93
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jul 17 – Jul 27 1 in 37
3 Vidir Gardur 2 Sep 5 – Sep 12 1 in 32
4 KA Akureyri 2 Jun 10 – Jun 15 1 in 26
5 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 31 – Jun 21 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 5 Aug 16 – Sep 12 1 in 692
2 Keflavik IF 4 Jul 4 – Jul 26 1 in 69
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 10 – Jun 28 1 in 23
4 Thor Akureyri 3 May 29 – Jun 10 1 in 19
5 IF Volsungur 4 Jul 26 – Aug 8 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 4 Jun 10 – Jun 28 1 in 21
2 IF Volsungur 5 Jun 14 – Jul 19 1 in 15
3 Valur Reykjavik 11 Jul 6 – Sep 12 1 in 14
4 Thor Akureyri 6 Jun 28 – Jul 29 1 in 10
5 Keflavik IF 5 Aug 16 – Sep 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vidir Gardur 11 May 21 – Jul 26 1 in 56
2 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 28 – Aug 9 1 in 29
3 KR Reykjavik 5 Aug 16 – Sep 12 1 in 20
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 30 – Jul 20 1 in 19
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik40.65%24.35%16.00%10.24%5.26%2.12%0.88%0.35%0.11%0.04%
Fram Reykjavik22.55%23.09%19.80%15.62%9.66%4.95%2.58%1.16%0.47%0.12%
IA Akranes13.53%18.55%20.61%18.97%12.91%8.25%4.20%1.96%0.86%0.16%
Thor Akureyri2.23%4.71%8.41%13.18%18.98%19.41%14.52%9.61%5.96%2.99%
KR Reykjavik18.00%22.02%21.07%17.34%10.52%5.89%3.01%1.47%0.58%0.10%
Keflavik IF2.42%5.13%8.88%13.28%18.25%18.93%14.81%9.51%5.95%2.84%
KA Akureyri0.04%0.11%0.22%0.97%2.79%5.39%10.44%15.86%24.30%39.88%
IF Volsungur0.24%0.84%1.92%3.89%7.98%12.47%17.16%20.32%19.80%15.38%
Vidir Gardur0.30%0.90%2.07%4.40%8.66%14.12%18.10%20.05%17.95%13.45%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.04%0.30%1.02%2.11%4.99%8.47%14.30%19.71%24.02%25.04%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.11%
No Edge
36.67%27.78%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.
233 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.14 * Some Luck: 4.14 to 6.22 * Lucky: 6.22 to 8.29 * Wild Swing: 8.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.87 * A Surprise: 0.87 to 1.39 * Several Surprises: 1.39 to 1.91 * Many Surprises: 1.91 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.60 points
As Expected
05.1813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.39%
KA Akureyri
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
15.11%
KR Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.14
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.49
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.82
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1840.5

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.85% 0.15%
Fram Reykjavik 99.41% 0.59%
KR Reykjavik 99.32% 0.68%
IA Akranes 98.98% 1.02%
Keflavik IF 91.21% 8.79%
Thor Akureyri 91.05% 8.95%
Vidir Gardur 68.60% 31.40%
IF Volsungur 64.82% 35.18%
FH Hafnarfjordur 50.94% 49.06%
KA Akureyri 35.82% 64.18%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1987-05-21 IA Akranes L 0-1 918 1076 18.9% 24.9% 56.3% -2.2 0
1987-05-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1076 918 56.3% 24.9% 18.9% +2.2 3
1987-05-21 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1099 993 50.5% 27.0% 22.4% -8.2 0
1987-05-21 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 993 1099 22.4% 27.0% 50.5% +8.2 3
1987-05-21 Keflavik IF L 2-4 938 1014 26.2% 28.4% 45.5% -4.5 0
1987-05-21 @ IF Volsungur W 4-2 1014 938 45.5% 28.4% 26.2% +4.5 3
1987-05-21 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 852 1076 14.7% 21.1% 64.2% -1.7 0
1987-05-21 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1076 852 64.2% 21.1% 14.7% +1.7 3
1987-05-21 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 956 1113 19.0% 24.9% 56.1% +0.8 1
1987-05-21 @ Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1113 956 56.1% 24.9% 19.0% -0.8 1
1987-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1078 915 57.8% 24.2% 18.0% +5.8 6
1987-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 915 1078 18.0% 24.2% 57.8% -5.9 0
1987-05-29 IF Volsungur L 0-1 1001 933 45.3% 28.4% 26.3% -4.6 3
1987-05-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 933 1001 26.3% 28.4% 45.3% +4.6 3
1987-05-29 KA Akureyri L 0-1 957 850 50.5% 27.0% 22.4% -5.0 1
1987-05-29 @ Vidir Gardur W 1-0 850 957 22.4% 27.0% 50.5% +5.0 3
1987-05-30 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1078 1090 34.1% 29.4% 36.5% -6.1 3
1987-05-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1090 1078 36.5% 29.4% 34.1% +6.1 3
1987-05-31 Keflavik IF W 7-1 1112 1018 48.9% 27.5% 23.6% +12.1 4
1987-05-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-7 1018 1112 23.6% 27.5% 48.9% -12.1 3
1987-06-06 Vidir Gardur D 0-0 910 952 30.1% 29.1% 40.7% +0.2 1
1987-06-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 952 910 40.7% 29.1% 30.1% -0.2 2
1987-06-06 IA Akranes L 1-2 938 1072 20.7% 26.1% 53.2% -2.3 3
1987-06-06 @ IF Volsungur W 2-1 1072 938 53.2% 26.1% 20.7% +2.3 6
1987-06-06 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 856 1124 12.5% 18.4% 69.2% -1.4 3
1987-06-06 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1124 856 69.2% 18.4% 12.5% +1.4 7
1987-06-06 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1006 996 37.3% 29.4% 33.3% +7.0 6
1987-06-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 996 1006 33.3% 29.4% 37.3% -7.0 3
1987-06-08 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1097 1084 37.7% 29.4% 32.9% -0.1 4
1987-06-08 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1084 1097 32.9% 29.4% 37.7% +0.1 7
1987-06-10 Keflavik IF W 4-2 1074 1013 44.5% 28.6% 27.0% +4.6 9
1987-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 1013 1074 27.0% 28.6% 44.5% -4.6 6
1987-06-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 854 910 28.5% 28.9% 42.6% +4.2 6
1987-06-10 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 910 854 42.6% 28.9% 28.5% -4.2 1
1987-06-10 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1125 989 54.4% 25.6% 19.9% +4.5 10
1987-06-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 989 1125 19.9% 25.6% 54.4% -4.5 3
1987-06-11 IF Volsungur W 2-0 1084 936 56.0% 25.0% 19.0% +4.3 10
1987-06-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 936 1084 19.0% 25.0% 56.0% -4.3 3
1987-06-11 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 951 1096 19.9% 25.6% 54.6% +0.8 3
1987-06-11 @ Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1096 951 54.6% 25.6% 19.9% -0.8 5
1987-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 906 1130 14.7% 21.1% 64.2% -2.8 1
1987-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1130 906 64.2% 21.1% 14.7% +2.8 13
1987-06-14 Vidir Gardur D 0-0 931 952 32.9% 29.4% 37.7% +0.1 4
1987-06-14 @ IF Volsungur D 0-0 952 931 37.7% 29.4% 32.9% -0.1 4
1987-06-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1009 1088 25.8% 28.3% 45.9% +0.4 7
1987-06-14 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1088 1009 45.9% 28.3% 25.8% -0.4 11
1987-06-14 IA Akranes W 2-1 985 1079 24.3% 27.8% 47.9% +4.5 6
1987-06-14 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1079 985 47.9% 27.8% 24.3% -4.5 9
1987-06-15 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1096 858 66.6% 19.8% 13.6% -6.2 5
1987-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 858 1096 13.6% 19.8% 66.6% +6.2 9
1987-06-18 Thor Akureyri W 5-0 1088 989 49.5% 27.3% 23.2% +12.1 14
1987-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-5 989 1088 23.2% 27.3% 49.5% -12.1 6
1987-06-19 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 903 1090 16.9% 23.3% 59.8% -2.0 1
1987-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1090 903 59.8% 23.3% 16.9% +2.0 8
1987-06-19 IF Volsungur D 1-1 864 931 27.2% 28.6% 44.2% +0.4 10
1987-06-19 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 931 864 44.2% 28.6% 27.2% -0.4 5
1987-06-19 Keflavik IF L 1-3 952 1009 28.3% 28.9% 42.8% -5.3 4
1987-06-19 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1009 952 42.8% 28.9% 28.3% +5.3 10
1987-06-21 IA Akranes W 2-1 1133 1075 44.1% 28.6% 27.3% +3.0 16
1987-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1075 1133 27.3% 28.6% 44.1% -3.0 9
1987-06-28 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1072 1100 31.9% 29.3% 38.8% +3.9 12
1987-06-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1100 1072 38.8% 29.3% 31.9% -3.9 14
1987-06-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 931 901 40.1% 29.2% 30.6% +8.0 8
1987-06-28 @ IF Volsungur L 1-4 901 931 30.6% 29.2% 40.1% -8.0 1
1987-06-28 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1014 865 56.2% 24.9% 18.9% -0.8 11
1987-06-28 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 865 1014 18.9% 24.9% 56.2% +0.8 11
1987-06-28 Vidir Gardur W 5-0 977 947 40.2% 29.2% 30.6% +15.3 9
1987-06-28 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-5 947 977 30.6% 29.2% 40.2% -15.3 4
1987-06-30 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1092 1136 29.9% 29.1% 41.0% +4.3 11
1987-06-30 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1136 1092 41.0% 29.1% 29.9% -4.3 16
1987-07-03 IA Akranes D 0-0 931 1075 19.9% 25.6% 54.5% +0.9 5
1987-07-03 @ Vidir Gardur D 0-0 1075 931 54.5% 25.6% 19.9% -0.9 13
1987-07-04 Keflavik IF W 2-1 893 1014 21.8% 26.7% 51.5% +4.8 4
1987-07-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1014 893 51.5% 26.7% 21.8% -4.8 11
1987-07-04 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 866 992 21.3% 26.4% 52.2% -2.4 11
1987-07-04 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 992 866 52.2% 26.4% 21.3% +2.4 12
1987-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1131 1096 40.9% 29.1% 30.0% -0.2 17
1987-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1096 1131 30.0% 29.1% 40.9% +0.2 15
1987-07-12 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1075 863 63.6% 21.4% 15.0% +1.7 16
1987-07-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 863 1075 15.0% 21.4% 63.6% -1.7 11
1987-07-12 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 939 1131 16.6% 23.0% 60.4% +1.1 9
1987-07-12 @ IF Volsungur D 0-0 1131 939 60.4% 23.0% 16.6% -1.1 18
1987-07-12 Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1096 932 57.9% 24.1% 17.9% -0.9 16
1987-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 932 1096 17.9% 24.1% 57.9% +0.9 6
1987-07-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 995 898 49.4% 27.4% 23.3% +4.0 15
1987-07-12 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-4 898 995 23.3% 27.4% 49.4% -4.0 4
1987-07-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1009 1096 25.0% 28.0% 46.9% -5.5 11
1987-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1096 1009 46.9% 28.0% 25.0% +5.6 14
1987-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1076 894 60.2% 23.1% 16.7% -5.4 16
1987-07-17 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 894 1076 16.7% 23.1% 60.2% +5.4 7
1987-07-19 IF Volsungur L 0-1 1003 940 44.7% 28.5% 26.7% -4.6 11
1987-07-19 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 940 1003 26.7% 28.5% 44.7% +4.6 12
1987-07-19 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1095 862 66.2% 20.0% 13.8% +2.9 19
1987-07-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 862 1095 13.8% 20.0% 66.2% -3.0 11
1987-07-19 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 999 1101 23.5% 27.5% 49.0% +11.3 18
1987-07-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-4 1101 999 49.0% 27.5% 23.5% -11.3 14
1987-07-20 Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1130 933 61.9% 22.2% 15.8% -1.0 19
1987-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 933 1130 15.8% 22.2% 61.9% +1.0 7
1987-07-26 IA Akranes D 4-4 1090 1071 38.6% 29.3% 32.1% -0.1 15
1987-07-26 @ Fram Reykjavik D 4-4 1071 1090 32.1% 29.3% 38.6% +0.1 17
1987-07-26 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 945 1010 27.3% 28.7% 44.0% -3.2 12
1987-07-26 @ IF Volsungur W 1-0 1010 945 44.0% 28.7% 27.3% +3.2 21
1987-07-26 Vidir Gardur W 6-0 859 934 26.2% 28.4% 45.4% +24.2 14
1987-07-26 @ KA Akureyri L 0-6 934 859 45.4% 28.4% 26.2% -24.2 7
1987-07-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 999 1129 21.0% 26.3% 52.7% -2.4 11
1987-07-26 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1129 999 52.7% 26.3% 21.0% +2.4 22
1987-07-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 899 1098 16.2% 22.6% 61.3% +5.5 10
1987-07-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1098 899 61.3% 22.6% 16.2% -5.5 19
1987-07-29 IF Volsungur W 2-1 1071 942 53.6% 25.9% 20.5% +2.3 20
1987-07-29 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 942 1071 20.5% 25.9% 53.6% -2.3 12
1987-07-29 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1013 996 38.3% 29.4% 32.4% -0.1 22
1987-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 996 1013 32.4% 29.4% 38.3% +0.1 12
1987-07-29 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1131 883 67.8% 19.1% 13.1% +1.4 25
1987-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 883 1131 13.1% 19.1% 67.8% -1.4 14
1987-07-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1093 1090 36.2% 29.4% 34.3% +3.4 22
1987-07-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1090 1093 34.3% 29.4% 36.2% -3.4 15
1987-07-30 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-2 910 905 36.6% 29.4% 34.0% +7.5 10
1987-07-30 @ Vidir Gardur L 2-5 905 910 34.0% 29.4% 36.6% -7.5 10
1987-08-05 IF Volsungur W 6-0 1087 939 55.9% 25.1% 19.1% +11.9 18
1987-08-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-6 939 1087 19.1% 25.1% 55.9% -11.9 12
1987-08-07 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1013 1133 21.9% 26.8% 51.3% -7.1 22
1987-08-07 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1133 1013 51.3% 26.8% 21.9% +7.2 28
1987-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 927 1096 18.1% 24.3% 57.6% -3.5 12
1987-08-08 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1096 927 57.6% 24.3% 18.1% +3.5 25
1987-08-09 KA Akureyri D 0-0 897 881 38.1% 29.4% 32.6% -0.1 11
1987-08-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 881 897 32.6% 29.4% 38.1% +0.1 15
1987-08-09 IA Akranes L 2-5 996 1073 26.1% 28.3% 45.6% -6.1 12
1987-08-09 @ Keflavik IF W 5-2 1073 996 45.6% 28.3% 26.1% +6.1 23
1987-08-10 Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1098 917 60.0% 23.2% 16.8% +3.2 21
1987-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 917 1098 16.8% 23.2% 60.0% -3.2 10
1987-08-16 Thor Akureyri W 5-2 1079 1006 46.1% 28.2% 25.7% +6.0 26
1987-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 2-5 1006 1079 25.7% 28.2% 46.1% -6.0 22
1987-08-16 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 882 1102 15.0% 21.3% 63.7% -4.7 15
1987-08-16 @ KA Akureyri W 3-0 1102 882 63.7% 21.3% 15.0% +4.7 24
1987-08-16 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1100 990 51.0% 26.9% 22.2% -5.1 25
1987-08-16 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 990 1100 22.2% 26.9% 51.0% +5.0 15
1987-08-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1140 897 67.2% 19.4% 13.4% -1.2 29
1987-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 897 1140 13.4% 19.4% 67.2% +1.2 12
1987-08-16 IF Volsungur L 2-3 914 924 34.4% 29.5% 36.1% -3.4 10
1987-08-16 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-2 924 914 36.1% 29.5% 34.4% +3.4 15
1987-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1106 898 63.2% 21.6% 15.2% +1.6 27
1987-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 898 1106 15.2% 21.6% 63.2% -1.7 12
1987-08-19 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1085 1139 28.7% 28.9% 42.3% -6.2 26
1987-08-19 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1139 1085 42.3% 28.9% 28.7% +6.2 32
1987-08-19 KA Akureyri L 1-3 927 877 43.0% 28.8% 28.2% -7.2 15
1987-08-19 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 877 927 28.2% 28.8% 43.0% +7.2 18
1987-08-19 Vidir Gardur D 0-0 995 911 47.7% 27.8% 24.5% -0.5 16
1987-08-19 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 911 995 24.5% 27.8% 47.7% +0.6 11
1987-08-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1000 1095 24.3% 27.8% 48.0% +7.9 25
1987-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1095 1000 48.0% 27.8% 24.3% -7.9 25
1987-08-23 IF Volsungur D 3-3 897 920 32.5% 29.4% 38.1% +0.1 13
1987-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 920 897 38.1% 29.4% 32.5% -0.1 16
1987-08-23 Keflavik IF D 0-0 884 995 22.7% 27.1% 50.1% +0.7 19
1987-08-23 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 995 884 50.1% 27.1% 22.7% -0.7 17
1987-08-23 IA Akranes L 2-3 1087 1079 36.9% 29.4% 33.7% -3.5 25
1987-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1079 1087 33.7% 29.4% 36.9% +3.6 29
1987-08-23 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1145 1108 41.1% 29.1% 29.8% -0.3 33
1987-08-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1108 1145 29.8% 29.1% 41.1% +0.3 28
1987-08-23 Thor Akureyri L 1-3 911 1008 24.1% 27.7% 48.3% -4.6 11
1987-08-23 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1008 911 48.3% 27.7% 24.1% +4.6 28
1987-09-05 Vidir Gardur L 3-4 1083 907 59.4% 23.5% 17.1% -5.0 29
1987-09-05 @ IA Akranes W 4-3 907 1083 17.1% 23.5% 59.4% +5.0 14
1987-09-05 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 920 1108 16.8% 23.2% 60.0% -1.9 16
1987-09-05 @ IF Volsungur W 2-1 1108 920 60.0% 23.2% 16.8% +1.9 31
1987-09-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 994 897 49.4% 27.4% 23.2% +2.8 20
1987-09-05 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 897 994 23.2% 27.4% 49.4% -2.8 13
1987-09-05 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1083 1145 27.8% 28.8% 43.5% -6.1 25
1987-09-05 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1145 1083 43.5% 28.8% 27.8% +6.1 36
1987-09-05 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1013 885 53.4% 26.0% 20.6% -0.7 29
1987-09-05 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 885 1013 20.6% 26.0% 53.4% +0.7 20
1987-09-12 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 894 1012 22.1% 26.8% 51.1% +11.7 16
1987-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1012 894 51.1% 26.8% 22.1% -11.7 29
1987-09-12 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1110 997 51.5% 26.7% 21.8% -0.7 32
1987-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 997 1110 21.8% 26.7% 51.5% +0.7 21
1987-09-12 IA Akranes D 0-0 885 1078 16.6% 23.0% 60.4% +1.1 21
1987-09-12 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1078 885 60.4% 23.0% 16.6% -1.1 30
1987-09-12 IF Volsungur D 0-0 1151 918 66.0% 20.1% 13.9% -1.3 37
1987-09-12 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 918 1151 13.9% 20.1% 66.0% +1.3 17
1987-09-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 912 1077 18.4% 24.5% 57.1% +10.4 17
1987-09-12 @ Vidir Gardur L 0-2 1077 912 57.1% 24.5% 18.4% -10.4 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1987-06-15 13.64% KA Akureyri 858 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1096 0
2 1987-07-27 16.17% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 899 2 KR Reykjavik 1098 1
3 1987-07-17 16.71% FH Hafnarfjordur 894 2 @ IA Akranes 1076 1
4 1987-09-05 17.13% Vidir Gardur 907 4 @ IA Akranes 1083 3
5 1987-09-12 18.36% @ Vidir Gardur 912 2 KR Reykjavik 1077 0
6 1987-07-04 21.83% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 893 2 Keflavik IF 1014 1
7 1987-09-12 22.07% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 894 4 Thor Akureyri 1012 1
8 1987-08-16 22.17% Keflavik IF 990 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1100 0
9 1987-05-29 22.44% KA Akureyri 850 1 @ Vidir Gardur 957 0
10 1987-05-21 22.45% Thor Akureyri 993 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1099 1
11 1987-07-19 23.49% @ Thor Akureyri 999 4 Fram Reykjavik 1101 1
12 1987-08-19 24.27% @ Thor Akureyri 1000 3 KR Reykjavik 1095 1
13 1987-06-14 24.28% @ Thor Akureyri 985 2 IA Akranes 1079 1
14 1987-07-26 26.21% @ KA Akureyri 859 6 Vidir Gardur 934 0
15 1987-05-29 26.26% IF Volsungur 933 1 @ Thor Akureyri 1001 0
16 1987-07-19 26.74% IF Volsungur 940 1 @ Keflavik IF 1003 0
17 1987-08-19 28.17% KA Akureyri 877 3 @ IF Volsungur 927 1
18 1987-06-10 28.46% @ KA Akureyri 854 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 910 1
19 1987-06-30 29.87% @ Fram Reykjavik 1092 1 Valur Reykjavik 1136 0
20 1987-06-28 31.89% @ IA Akranes 1072 2 KR Reykjavik 1100 1
21 1987-08-23 33.65% IA Akranes 1079 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1087 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-07-26 24.25 @ KA Akureyri 6 859 26.21% Vidir Gardur 0 934 45.40% 28.38%
2 1987-06-28 15.29 @ Thor Akureyri 5 977 40.18% Vidir Gardur 0 947 30.61% 29.21%
3 1987-06-18 12.11 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1088 49.53% Thor Akureyri 0 989 23.15% 27.32%
4 1987-05-31 12.07 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1112 48.88% Keflavik IF 1 1018 23.61% 27.51%
5 1987-08-05 11.90 @ Fram Reykjavik 6 1087 55.85% IF Volsungur 0 939 19.10% 25.05%
6 1987-09-12 11.70 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 894 22.07% Thor Akureyri 1 1012 51.11% 26.82%
7 1987-07-19 11.34 @ Thor Akureyri 4 999 23.49% Fram Reykjavik 1 1101 49.04% 27.47%
8 1987-09-12 10.40 @ Vidir Gardur 2 912 18.36% KR Reykjavik 0 1077 57.15% 24.49%
9 1987-05-21 8.20 Thor Akureyri 3 993 22.45% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1099 50.54% 27.01%
10 1987-06-28 8.02 @ IF Volsungur 4 931 40.14% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 901 30.65% 29.22%
11 1987-08-19 7.89 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1000 24.27% KR Reykjavik 1 1095 47.96% 27.77%
12 1987-07-30 7.49 @ Vidir Gardur 5 910 36.60% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 905 33.96% 29.45%
13 1987-08-19 7.25 KA Akureyri 3 877 28.17% @ IF Volsungur 1 927 42.99% 28.84%
14 1987-08-07 7.15 Valur Reykjavik 3 1133 51.29% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1013 21.95% 26.77%
15 1987-06-06 6.96 @ Keflavik IF 2 1006 37.29% Thor Akureyri 0 996 33.29% 29.42%
16 1987-08-19 6.23 Valur Reykjavik 2 1139 42.31% @ IA Akranes 0 1085 28.75% 28.94%
17 1987-06-15 6.16 KA Akureyri 1 858 13.64% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1096 66.58% 19.79%
18 1987-05-30 6.13 Fram Reykjavik 3 1090 36.46% @ IA Akranes 1 1078 34.09% 29.45%
19 1987-08-09 6.10 IA Akranes 5 1073 45.56% @ Keflavik IF 2 996 26.09% 28.35%
20 1987-09-05 6.06 Valur Reykjavik 2 1145 43.45% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1083 27.79% 28.76%
21 1987-08-16 6.02 @ IA Akranes 5 1079 46.13% Thor Akureyri 2 1006 25.65% 28.22%
22 1987-05-29 5.85 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1078 57.75% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 915 18.02% 24.23%
23 1987-07-15 5.55 Fram Reykjavik 2 1096 46.95% @ Keflavik IF 0 1009 25.02% 28.03%
24 1987-07-27 5.47 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 899 16.17% KR Reykjavik 1 1098 61.26% 22.57%
25 1987-07-17 5.40 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 894 16.71% @ IA Akranes 1 1076 60.20% 23.09%