Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1986
‹ ›

1986 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

38 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1972.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannayjar

12 pts

Breidablik · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

8.27 points above expected

38 points · 29.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

5.87 points below expected

16 points · 21.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 18 11 5 2 38 39 13 +26 29.73 +8.27
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 12 2 4 38 31 11 +20 33.75 +4.25
3 IA Akranes 18 9 3 6 30 33 22 +11 32.06 -2.06
4 KR Reykjavik 18 7 8 3 29 21 10 +11 27.29 +1.71
5 Keflavik IF 18 9 1 8 28 25 27 -2 25.32 +2.68
6 Thor Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 21 31 -10 27.71 -5.71
7 Vidir Gardur 18 5 4 9 19 21 25 -4 18.33 +0.67
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 4 9 19 24 36 -12 17.13 +1.87
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 18 35 -17 21.87 -5.87
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 3 3 12 12 20 43 -23 17.52 -5.52

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1287 38 33.75 +4.25 81.0% 13 25 30 34 37 42 51
Fram Reykjavik 1264 38 29.73 +8.27 95.0% 9 21 26 30 34 38 50
IA Akranes 1230 30 32.06 -2.06 38.7% 10 23 28 32 36 41 52
KR Reykjavik 1216 29 27.29 +1.71 66.0% 8 18 23 27 31 36 47
Keflavik IF 1147 28 25.32 +2.68 71.8% 5 16 21 25 29 35 46
Thor Akureyri 1111 22 27.71 -5.71 17.2% 9 19 24 28 31 37 47
Vidir Gardur 1052 19 18.33 +0.67 59.7% 3 10 15 18 22 27 42
Breidablik 1049 16 21.87 -5.87 16.3% 5 13 18 22 26 31 43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1012 12 17.52 -5.52 16.6% 1 9 14 17 21 26 41
FH Hafnarfjordur 999 19 17.13 +1.87 68.5% 2 9 14 17 21 26 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VG
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-2
1.62
0-2-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.08
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
3.29
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
2.26
 —
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.45
1-0-1
2.74
0-2-0
1.77
1-0-1
1.84
1-0-1
1.69
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
2.60
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
4.11
 —
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
3.14
0-1-1
3.36
2-0-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
3.94
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
4.15
0-1-1
3.09
 —
2-0-0
4.00
0-1-1
3.28
1-0-1
3.55
2-0-0
3.19
0-0-2
2.54
0-1-1
4.19
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
2.24
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-2
1.47
0-0-2
1.59
 —
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
1.22
2-0-0
2.42
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.54
0-2-0
3.81
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
3.53
 —
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
1.99
0-1-1
3.87
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.45
 —
0-0-2
2.86
1-0-1
1.94
1-0-1
3.51
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
3.49
1-0-1
3.89
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-2
2.36
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.70
 —
1-0-1
2.23
0-2-0
3.82
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.80
2-0-0
4.38
1-1-0
3.32
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
4.41
0-1-1
3.58
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.33
 —
2-0-0
4.24
Vidir Gardur
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
1.65
1-1-0
1.42
0-0-2
3.14
1-1-0
1.70
1-0-1
2.05
0-2-0
1.76
0-0-2
1.36
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +10.9
Allowed 0.80 -7.0
Differential 0.93 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%12.22%0.56%3.33%1.67%1.67%27.22%
112.22%8.89%8.33%3.33%2.78%1.67%37.22%
20.56%8.33%4.44%3.33%——16.67%
33.33%3.33%3.33%—0.56%—10.56%
41.67%2.78%—0.56%——5.00%
5+1.67%1.67%————3.33%
Total27.22%37.22%16.67%10.56%5.00%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.05
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%———11.11%27.78%
111.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.84 1.83 2.29
CV 0.84 0.94 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%———5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%22.22%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.00 -0.67
SD 1.08 1.64 2.11
CV 0.81 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total33.33%61.11%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.72 +1.44
SD 1.79 0.57 1.82
CV 0.83 0.80 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.22 +0.61
SD 1.54 0.94 1.82
CV 0.84 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—11.11%5.56%—33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total—38.89%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.39 -1.28
SD 1.08 1.38 1.78
CV 0.97 0.58 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%————33.33%
111.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.56 +0.61
SD 1.20 0.70 1.38
CV 1.03 1.27 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
122.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
2—16.67%—16.67%——33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.09 1.25 1.68
CV 0.79 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—11.11%——38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—16.67%————16.67%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.72 -0.56
SD 1.25 1.27 1.58
CV 1.07 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
138.89%5.56%5.56%———50.00%
2———————
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total61.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.61 +1.11
SD 1.93 0.92 2.32
CV 1.12 1.50 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
116.67%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.39 -0.22
SD 1.25 1.42 2.05
CV 1.07 1.02 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 38 29.73 +8.27
2 Valur Reykjavik 38 33.75 +4.25
3 Keflavik IF 28 25.32 +2.68
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 19 17.13 +1.87
5 KR Reykjavik 29 27.29 +1.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 16 21.87 -5.87
2 Thor Akureyri 22 27.71 -5.71
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 12 17.52 -5.52
4 IA Akranes 30 32.06 -2.06
5 Vidir Gardur 19 18.33 +0.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jun 10 – Jul 20 1 in 279
2 Keflavik IF 3 Jul 6 – Jul 17 1 in 22
3 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Sep 7 1 in 20
4 Vidir Gardur 2 Jun 6 – Jun 14 1 in 16
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 May 17 – May 20 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 4 Jun 6 – Jun 19 1 in 43
2 Thor Akureyri 3 Aug 16 – Sep 6 1 in 34
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 24 – Jul 3 1 in 28
4 Keflavik IF 3 May 17 – May 23 1 in 26
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jun 6 – Jun 23 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vidir Gardur 5 May 20 – Jun 14 1 in 72
2 Fram Reykjavik 10 Jun 6 – Jul 27 1 in 45
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 19 – Sep 13 1 in 33
4 Keflavik IF 6 Jul 6 – Aug 17 1 in 18
5 Valur Reykjavik 9 May 23 – Jul 13 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 6 Jun 20 – Jul 19 1 in 46
2 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 26 – Sep 6 1 in 23
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 May 17 – Jun 23 1 in 12
4 Breidablik 7 Jul 6 – Aug 25 1 in 11
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 17 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Fram Reykjavik15.67%18.70%18.77%15.97%12.61%8.82%5.02%2.95%1.10%0.39%
Valur Reykjavik40.28%23.49%15.21%9.23%5.83%3.47%1.62%0.64%0.18%0.05%
IA Akranes25.11%23.87%18.80%13.68%8.70%5.06%2.79%1.26%0.53%0.20%
KR Reykjavik7.12%11.36%14.95%16.90%16.28%13.79%9.95%5.75%2.90%1.00%
Keflavik IF3.44%7.26%9.78%13.43%17.04%16.72%14.43%9.27%6.00%2.63%
Thor Akureyri7.15%11.88%14.89%17.27%15.57%13.90%9.84%5.25%2.99%1.26%
Vidir Gardur0.13%0.43%1.47%3.06%5.61%9.06%14.87%20.07%23.12%22.18%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.10%0.28%0.86%1.87%3.45%7.36%11.21%18.95%24.36%31.56%
Breidablik0.88%2.31%4.26%6.75%11.05%14.70%18.74%17.99%13.91%9.41%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.12%0.42%1.01%1.84%3.86%7.12%11.53%17.87%24.91%31.32%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
Slight Edge
42.22%21.11%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.
161 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
16%
Fram Reykjavik, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.3 * Some Luck: 4.3 to 6.44 * Lucky: 6.44 to 8.59 * Wild Swing: 8.59 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.25 * Close: 1.25 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.5 * Way Off: 2.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.88 * A Surprise: 0.88 to 1.41 * Several Surprises: 1.41 to 1.93 * Many Surprises: 1.93 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.50 points
Some Luck
05.3713
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.564
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.02%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
16.28%
Breidablik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Many Surprises
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.40
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.70
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.101
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.77% 0.23%
IA Akranes 99.27% 0.73%
Fram Reykjavik 98.51% 1.49%
KR Reykjavik 96.10% 3.90%
Thor Akureyri 95.75% 4.25%
Keflavik IF 91.37% 8.63%
Breidablik 76.68% 23.32%
Vidir Gardur 54.70% 45.30%
FH Hafnarfjordur 44.08% 55.92%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 43.77% 56.23%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1986-05-17 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1123 1168 35.1% 22.3% 42.5% +8.6 3
1986-05-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1168 1123 42.5% 22.3% 35.1% -8.6 0
1986-05-17 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1216 1153 50.1% 21.9% 28.0% -1.1 1
1986-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1153 1216 28.0% 21.9% 50.1% +1.1 1
1986-05-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1143 1099 47.6% 22.1% 30.2% +23.3 3
1986-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1099 1143 30.2% 22.1% 47.6% -23.3 0
1986-05-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1189 1239 34.5% 22.3% 43.2% +8.2 3
1986-05-17 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1239 1189 43.2% 22.3% 34.5% -8.2 0
1986-05-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1029 1008 44.5% 22.3% 33.2% -14.5 0
1986-05-17 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-1 1008 1029 33.2% 22.3% 44.5% +14.5 3
1986-05-20 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1022 1160 24.0% 21.5% 54.5% +10.0 6
1986-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1160 1022 54.5% 21.5% 24.0% -10.0 0
1986-05-20 IA Akranes L 0-3 1075 1215 23.8% 21.4% 54.8% -14.6 0
1986-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1215 1075 54.8% 21.4% 23.8% +14.5 4
1986-05-20 Breidablik L 0-1 1231 1131 54.6% 21.5% 23.9% -10.6 0
1986-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1131 1231 23.9% 21.5% 54.6% +10.6 6
1986-05-20 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1014 1166 22.5% 21.2% 56.2% +1.7 1
1986-05-20 @ Vidir Gardur D 0-0 1166 1014 56.2% 21.2% 22.5% -1.7 4
1986-05-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1154 1197 35.4% 22.4% 42.2% +8.0 4
1986-05-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1197 1154 42.2% 22.4% 35.4% -8.0 3
1986-05-23 Vidir Gardur L 0-1 1230 1016 66.5% 19.1% 14.4% -12.6 4
1986-05-23 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1016 1230 14.4% 19.1% 66.5% +12.6 4
1986-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1150 1220 31.8% 22.2% 46.0% -24.3 0
1986-05-23 @ Keflavik IF W 4-0 1220 1150 46.0% 22.2% 31.8% +24.3 3
1986-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1165 1032 58.3% 20.9% 20.8% -1.7 5
1986-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1032 1165 20.8% 20.9% 58.3% +1.7 7
1986-05-31 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1034 1245 17.4% 20.1% 62.5% -4.0 7
1986-05-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1245 1034 62.5% 20.1% 17.4% +4.0 6
1986-05-31 Breidablik D 1-1 1061 1142 30.5% 22.1% 47.4% +0.7 1
1986-05-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1142 1061 47.4% 22.1% 30.5% -0.7 7
1986-05-31 IA Akranes D 1-1 1163 1217 34.0% 22.3% 43.7% +0.4 6
1986-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1217 1163 43.7% 22.3% 34.0% -0.4 5
1986-05-31 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1028 1189 21.7% 21.1% 57.2% +1.8 5
1986-05-31 @ Vidir Gardur D 0-0 1189 1028 57.2% 21.1% 21.7% -1.8 4
1986-06-01 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1162 1125 46.6% 22.2% 31.2% -9.2 4
1986-06-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1125 1162 31.2% 22.2% 46.6% +9.2 3
1986-06-06 Vidir Gardur L 0-1 1141 1030 55.9% 21.3% 22.8% -10.8 7
1986-06-06 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1030 1141 22.8% 21.3% 55.9% +10.8 8
1986-06-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1217 1030 63.9% 19.8% 16.3% +3.7 8
1986-06-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1030 1217 16.3% 19.8% 63.9% -3.7 7
1986-06-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1135 1061 51.4% 21.8% 26.8% +5.9 6
1986-06-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1061 1135 26.8% 21.8% 51.4% -5.9 1
1986-06-06 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1187 1163 44.9% 22.3% 32.8% -9.0 4
1986-06-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1163 1187 32.8% 22.3% 44.9% +9.0 9
1986-06-06 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1249 1153 54.1% 21.5% 24.3% -1.3 7
1986-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1153 1249 24.3% 21.5% 54.1% +1.3 5
1986-06-10 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1130 1154 38.2% 22.4% 39.5% -7.9 7
1986-06-10 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1154 1130 39.5% 22.4% 38.2% +7.9 8
1986-06-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-3 1178 1055 57.3% 21.1% 21.6% +4.3 7
1986-06-10 @ Thor Akureyri L 3-4 1055 1178 21.6% 21.1% 57.3% -4.3 1
1986-06-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-6 1026 1162 24.2% 21.5% 54.3% -19.7 7
1986-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-1 1162 1026 54.3% 21.5% 24.2% +19.7 11
1986-06-14 Thor Akureyri W 5-1 1220 1183 46.7% 22.2% 31.1% +19.9 11
1986-06-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-5 1183 1220 31.1% 22.2% 46.7% -19.9 7
1986-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1051 1247 18.6% 20.4% 61.0% -4.2 1
1986-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1247 1051 61.0% 20.4% 18.6% +4.2 10
1986-06-14 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1041 1140 28.2% 22.0% 49.8% +26.8 11
1986-06-14 @ Vidir Gardur L 0-3 1140 1041 49.8% 22.0% 28.2% -26.8 6
1986-06-15 Breidablik W 3-1 1172 1122 48.4% 22.1% 29.5% +10.5 12
1986-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1122 1172 29.5% 22.1% 48.4% -10.5 7
1986-06-19 IA Akranes L 1-4 1112 1240 25.0% 21.6% 53.4% -12.8 7
1986-06-19 @ Breidablik W 4-1 1240 1112 53.4% 21.6% 25.0% +12.8 14
1986-06-19 Vidir Gardur W 1-0 1252 1068 63.6% 19.8% 16.5% +3.8 13
1986-06-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1068 1252 16.5% 19.8% 63.6% -3.8 11
1986-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1182 1047 58.6% 20.9% 20.6% +12.8 14
1986-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1047 1182 20.6% 20.9% 58.6% -12.8 1
1986-06-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1114 1183 32.0% 22.2% 45.8% +8.6 9
1986-06-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1183 1114 45.8% 22.2% 32.0% -8.6 12
1986-06-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1163 1006 60.9% 20.4% 18.7% +4.0 10
1986-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1006 1163 18.7% 20.4% 60.9% -4.0 7
1986-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1002 1034 37.0% 22.4% 40.6% +19.1 10
1986-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1034 1002 40.6% 22.4% 37.0% -19.1 1
1986-06-23 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1064 1194 24.8% 21.6% 53.6% -19.7 11
1986-06-23 @ Vidir Gardur W 4-0 1194 1064 53.6% 21.6% 24.8% +19.7 17
1986-06-24 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1253 1122 58.1% 20.9% 20.9% -10.6 14
1986-06-24 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1122 1253 20.9% 20.9% 58.1% +10.6 12
1986-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1174 1255 30.5% 22.1% 47.4% +0.8 13
1986-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1255 1174 47.4% 22.1% 30.5% -0.8 14
1986-06-24 Breidablik D 1-1 1167 1099 50.7% 21.9% 27.5% -1.0 11
1986-06-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1099 1167 27.5% 21.9% 50.7% +1.0 8
1986-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1100 1021 52.0% 21.8% 26.2% +5.5 11
1986-06-27 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1021 1100 26.2% 21.8% 52.0% -5.4 10
1986-06-27 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1133 1166 36.9% 22.4% 40.8% -6.8 12
1986-06-27 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1166 1133 40.8% 22.4% 36.9% +6.9 14
1986-06-28 IA Akranes W 1-0 1255 1242 43.3% 22.3% 34.4% +7.2 17
1986-06-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1242 1255 34.4% 22.3% 43.3% -7.2 14
1986-06-30 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1214 1175 46.9% 22.2% 30.9% +6.3 20
1986-06-30 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1175 1214 30.9% 22.2% 46.9% -6.3 13
1986-06-30 Vidir Gardur W 3-2 1015 1044 37.4% 22.4% 40.2% +7.3 4
1986-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1044 1015 40.2% 22.4% 37.4% -7.3 11
1986-07-03 IA Akranes W 3-1 1220 1235 39.4% 22.4% 38.2% +12.9 23
1986-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1235 1220 38.2% 22.4% 39.4% -12.9 14
1986-07-04 Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1016 1037 38.6% 22.4% 39.1% +7.5 13
1986-07-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1037 1016 39.1% 22.4% 38.6% -7.6 11
1986-07-05 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1022 1169 23.1% 21.3% 55.5% +1.4 5
1986-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1169 1022 55.5% 21.3% 23.1% -1.4 14
1986-07-06 Breidablik W 1-0 1126 1106 44.4% 22.3% 33.3% +7.1 15
1986-07-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1106 1126 33.3% 22.3% 44.4% -7.1 11
1986-07-06 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1262 1173 53.3% 21.6% 25.1% +5.6 20
1986-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1173 1262 25.1% 21.6% 53.3% -5.6 14
1986-07-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1222 1024 65.0% 19.5% 15.5% +3.5 17
1986-07-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1024 1222 15.5% 19.5% 65.0% -3.5 5
1986-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1167 1233 32.4% 22.2% 45.4% -18.9 14
1986-07-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1233 1167 45.4% 22.2% 32.4% +18.9 26
1986-07-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-7 1098 1267 21.0% 21.0% 58.1% -28.7 11
1986-07-13 @ Breidablik W 7-0 1267 1098 58.1% 21.0% 21.0% +28.7 23
1986-07-13 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1133 1023 55.7% 21.3% 22.9% +4.6 18
1986-07-13 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1023 1133 22.9% 21.3% 55.7% -4.6 13
1986-07-14 Vidir Gardur L 0-1 1167 1029 58.9% 20.8% 20.3% -11.4 14
1986-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1029 1167 20.3% 20.8% 58.9% +11.4 14
1986-07-17 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1296 1138 61.1% 20.4% 18.5% -11.7 23
1986-07-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1138 1296 18.5% 20.4% 61.1% +11.7 21
1986-07-18 IA Akranes D 2-2 1041 1226 19.5% 20.6% 59.8% +1.4 15
1986-07-18 @ Vidir Gardur D 2-2 1226 1041 59.8% 20.6% 19.5% -1.4 18
1986-07-19 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1019 1156 24.1% 21.5% 54.4% +1.5 14
1986-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1156 1019 54.4% 21.5% 24.1% -1.5 15
1986-07-19 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1020 1148 25.1% 21.6% 53.3% -5.2 5
1986-07-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1148 1020 53.3% 21.6% 25.1% +5.2 17
1986-07-20 Breidablik W 2-1 1252 1070 63.5% 19.9% 16.6% +3.6 29
1986-07-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1070 1252 16.6% 19.9% 63.5% -3.6 11
1986-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1066 1015 48.5% 22.1% 29.4% -0.6 12
1986-07-26 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1015 1066 29.4% 22.1% 48.5% +0.6 6
1986-07-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1224 1154 51.0% 21.9% 27.2% -18.8 18
1986-07-26 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1154 1224 27.2% 21.9% 51.0% +18.8 18
1986-07-26 Vidir Gardur D 1-1 1153 1042 55.9% 21.3% 22.8% -1.5 18
1986-07-26 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1042 1153 22.8% 21.3% 55.9% +1.5 16
1986-07-27 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1149 1256 27.5% 21.9% 50.6% +1.0 22
1986-07-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1256 1149 50.6% 21.9% 27.5% -1.0 30
1986-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-0 1284 1020 70.7% 17.8% 11.5% +11.5 26
1986-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1020 1284 11.5% 17.8% 70.7% -11.5 14
1986-08-08 IA Akranes L 1-4 1009 1206 18.5% 20.4% 61.1% -9.8 14
1986-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1206 1009 61.1% 20.4% 18.5% +9.8 21
1986-08-08 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1173 1152 44.5% 22.3% 33.2% -0.5 19
1986-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1152 1173 33.2% 22.3% 44.5% +0.5 19
1986-08-08 Breidablik W 5-0 1044 1066 38.4% 22.4% 39.2% +35.4 19
1986-08-08 @ Vidir Gardur L 0-5 1066 1044 39.2% 22.4% 38.4% -35.4 12
1986-08-09 Keflavik IF L 1-4 1016 1150 24.3% 21.5% 54.1% -12.5 6
1986-08-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1150 1016 54.1% 21.5% 24.3% +12.5 25
1986-08-10 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1255 1296 35.7% 22.4% 41.9% -7.5 30
1986-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1296 1255 41.9% 22.4% 35.7% +7.5 29
1986-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1030 1173 23.5% 21.4% 55.1% -5.0 12
1986-08-16 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1173 1030 55.1% 21.4% 23.5% +5.0 22
1986-08-16 IA Akranes L 1-3 1152 1215 32.8% 22.3% 45.0% -11.4 19
1986-08-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1215 1152 45.0% 22.3% 32.8% +11.4 24
1986-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1303 1003 73.5% 16.8% 9.8% +3.6 32
1986-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1003 1303 9.8% 16.8% 73.5% -3.6 6
1986-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1247 999 69.4% 18.2% 12.4% -2.0 31
1986-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 999 1247 12.4% 18.2% 69.4% +2.0 15
1986-08-17 Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1163 1079 52.7% 21.7% 25.6% +5.3 28
1986-08-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1079 1163 25.6% 21.7% 52.7% -5.3 19
1986-08-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1074 1307 15.7% 19.6% 64.7% -3.6 19
1986-08-22 @ Vidir Gardur W 1-0 1307 1074 64.7% 19.6% 15.7% +3.6 35
1986-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1001 1141 23.8% 21.4% 54.8% +10.6 18
1986-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1141 1001 54.8% 21.4% 23.8% -10.6 19
1986-08-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-5 1000 1245 14.9% 19.3% 65.8% -10.2 6
1986-08-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1245 1000 65.8% 19.3% 14.9% +10.2 34
1986-08-24 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1178 1168 42.9% 22.3% 34.8% +7.3 25
1986-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1168 1178 34.8% 22.3% 42.9% -7.3 28
1986-08-25 Breidablik W 2-1 1227 1025 65.3% 19.4% 15.2% +3.3 27
1986-08-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1025 1227 15.2% 19.4% 65.3% -3.3 12
1986-09-06 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1022 1130 27.2% 21.9% 50.9% +27.3 15
1986-09-06 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1130 1022 50.9% 21.9% 27.2% -27.3 19
1986-09-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 989 1012 38.4% 22.4% 39.2% +13.1 9
1986-09-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1012 989 39.2% 22.4% 38.4% -13.1 18
1986-09-06 IA Akranes L 2-3 1161 1230 32.0% 22.2% 45.8% -6.1 28
1986-09-06 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1230 1161 45.8% 22.2% 32.0% +6.1 30
1986-09-07 Vidir Gardur W 4-1 1255 1070 63.8% 19.8% 16.4% +8.7 37
1986-09-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1070 1255 16.4% 19.8% 63.8% -8.7 19
1986-09-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1310 1185 57.6% 21.0% 21.4% -30.4 35
1986-09-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1185 1310 21.4% 21.0% 57.6% +30.5 28
1986-09-13 Breidablik D 2-2 999 1049 34.4% 22.3% 43.2% +0.3 19
1986-09-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1049 999 43.2% 22.3% 34.4% -0.3 16
1986-09-13 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1236 1280 35.4% 22.4% 42.3% -6.6 30
1986-09-13 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1280 1236 42.3% 22.4% 35.4% +6.6 38
1986-09-13 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1215 1264 34.7% 22.3% 43.0% +0.4 29
1986-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1264 1215 43.0% 22.3% 34.7% -0.4 38
1986-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1103 1155 34.3% 22.3% 43.4% +7.8 22
1986-09-13 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1155 1103 43.4% 22.3% 34.3% -7.8 28
1986-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1061 1003 49.5% 22.0% 28.5% -9.2 19
1986-09-13 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-1 1003 1061 28.5% 22.0% 49.5% +9.2 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-05-23 14.44% Vidir Gardur 1016 1 @ IA Akranes 1230 0
2 1986-07-17 18.51% Keflavik IF 1138 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1296 0
3 1986-07-14 20.27% Vidir Gardur 1029 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1167 0
4 1986-06-24 20.92% Keflavik IF 1122 2 @ IA Akranes 1253 1
5 1986-09-07 21.40% KR Reykjavik 1185 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1310 0
6 1986-06-06 22.81% Vidir Gardur 1030 1 @ Breidablik 1141 0
7 1986-08-23 23.78% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1001 1 Thor Akureyri 1141 0
8 1986-05-20 23.93% Breidablik 1131 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1231 0
9 1986-05-20 24.02% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1022 2 Keflavik IF 1160 1
10 1986-07-26 27.17% KR Reykjavik 1154 2 @ IA Akranes 1224 0
11 1986-09-06 27.19% @ Breidablik 1022 3 Thor Akureyri 1130 0
12 1986-06-14 28.24% @ Vidir Gardur 1041 3 Keflavik IF 1140 0
13 1986-09-13 28.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1003 2 @ Vidir Gardur 1061 1
14 1986-06-01 31.22% Keflavik IF 1125 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1162 0
15 1986-06-20 32.00% @ Keflavik IF 1114 2 KR Reykjavik 1183 1
16 1986-06-06 32.84% KR Reykjavik 1163 1 @ Thor Akureyri 1187 0
17 1986-05-17 33.23% FH Hafnarfjordur 1008 3 @ Vidir Gardur 1029 1
18 1986-09-13 34.28% @ Thor Akureyri 1103 3 Keflavik IF 1155 2
19 1986-05-17 34.50% @ Thor Akureyri 1189 2 Valur Reykjavik 1239 1
20 1986-05-17 35.11% @ Breidablik 1123 1 Keflavik IF 1168 0
21 1986-05-21 35.43% @ Fram Reykjavik 1154 2 Thor Akureyri 1197 1
22 1986-06-23 37.02% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1002 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1034 1
23 1986-06-30 37.41% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1015 3 Vidir Gardur 1044 2
24 1986-09-06 38.38% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 989 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 1012 1
25 1986-08-08 38.43% @ Vidir Gardur 1044 5 Breidablik 1066 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-08-08 35.42 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1044 38.43% Breidablik 0 1066 39.18% 22.39%
2 1986-09-07 30.45 KR Reykjavik 3 1185 21.40% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1310 57.56% 21.04%
3 1986-07-13 28.72 Valur Reykjavik 7 1267 58.09% @ Breidablik 0 1098 20.96% 20.96%
4 1986-09-06 27.32 @ Breidablik 3 1022 27.19% Thor Akureyri 0 1130 50.94% 21.86%
5 1986-06-14 26.79 @ Vidir Gardur 3 1041 28.24% Keflavik IF 0 1140 49.79% 21.96%
6 1986-05-23 24.34 Valur Reykjavik 4 1220 45.99% @ Keflavik IF 0 1150 31.80% 22.21%
7 1986-05-17 23.35 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1143 47.65% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1099 30.23% 22.12%
8 1986-06-14 19.91 @ IA Akranes 5 1220 46.74% Thor Akureyri 1 1183 31.09% 22.17%
9 1986-06-14 19.71 Fram Reykjavik 6 1162 54.29% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1026 24.21% 21.50%
10 1986-06-23 19.71 Fram Reykjavik 4 1194 53.63% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1064 24.79% 21.58%
11 1986-06-23 19.08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1002 37.02% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1034 40.61% 22.38%
12 1986-07-12 18.92 Fram Reykjavik 3 1233 45.37% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1167 32.39% 22.24%
13 1986-07-26 18.82 KR Reykjavik 2 1154 27.17% @ IA Akranes 0 1224 50.96% 21.86%
14 1986-05-20 14.55 IA Akranes 3 1215 54.77% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1075 23.79% 21.44%
15 1986-05-17 14.53 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1008 33.23% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1029 44.49% 22.28%
16 1986-09-06 13.13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 989 38.38% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1012 39.23% 22.39%
17 1986-07-03 12.86 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1220 39.44% IA Akranes 1 1235 38.17% 22.39%
18 1986-06-19 12.82 IA Akranes 4 1240 53.39% @ Breidablik 1 1112 25.00% 21.61%
19 1986-06-20 12.75 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1182 58.56% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1047 20.57% 20.88%
20 1986-05-23 12.64 Vidir Gardur 1 1016 14.44% @ IA Akranes 0 1230 66.45% 19.11%
21 1986-08-09 12.52 Keflavik IF 4 1150 54.15% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1016 24.33% 21.52%
22 1986-07-17 11.73 Keflavik IF 1 1138 18.51% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1296 61.09% 20.40%
23 1986-07-27 11.52 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1284 70.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1020 11.51% 17.78%
24 1986-08-16 11.39 IA Akranes 3 1215 44.95% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1152 32.79% 22.26%
25 1986-07-14 11.36 Vidir Gardur 1 1029 20.27% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1167 58.92% 20.81%