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1986 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

38 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1972.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannayjar

12 pts

Breidablik · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

9.13 points above expected

38 points · 28.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

6.12 points below expected

16 points · 22.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik Champion 18 11 5 2 38 39 13 +26 28.87 +9.13
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 12 2 4 38 31 11 +20 34.10 +3.90
3 IA Akranes 18 9 3 6 30 33 22 +11 32.12 -2.12
4 KR Reykjavik 18 7 8 3 29 21 10 +11 27.75 +1.25
5 Keflavik IF 18 9 1 8 28 25 27 -2 25.72 +2.28
6 Thor Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 21 31 -10 27.40 -5.40
7 Vidir Gardur 18 5 4 9 19 21 25 -4 17.84 +1.16
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 4 9 19 24 36 -12 17.84 +1.16
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 18 35 -17 22.12 -6.12
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 3 3 12 12 20 43 -23 17.39 -5.39

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 38 28.87 +9.13
2 Valur Reykjavik 38 34.10 +3.90
3 Keflavik IF 28 25.72 +2.28
4 KR Reykjavik 29 27.75 +1.25
5 Vidir Gardur 19 17.84 +1.16

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 16 22.12 -6.12
2 Thor Akureyri 22 27.40 -5.40
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 12 17.39 -5.39
4 IA Akranes 30 32.12 -2.12
5 Vidir Gardur 19 17.84 +1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jun 10 – Jul 20 1 in 280
2 Keflavik IF 3 Jul 6 – Jul 17 1 in 22
3 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Sep 7 1 in 20
4 Vidir Gardur 2 Jun 6 – Jun 14 1 in 16
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 May 17 – May 20 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 4 Jun 6 – Jun 19 1 in 43
2 Thor Akureyri 3 Aug 16 – Sep 6 1 in 34
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 24 – Jul 3 1 in 28
4 Keflavik IF 3 May 17 – May 23 1 in 26
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jun 6 – Jun 23 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vidir Gardur 5 May 20 – Jun 14 1 in 72
2 Fram Reykjavik 10 Jun 6 – Jul 27 1 in 45
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 19 – Sep 13 1 in 33
4 Keflavik IF 6 Jul 6 – Aug 17 1 in 18
5 Valur Reykjavik 9 May 23 – Jul 13 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 6 Jun 20 – Jul 19 1 in 46
2 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 26 – Sep 6 1 in 23
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 May 17 – Jun 23 1 in 12
4 Breidablik 7 Jul 6 – Aug 25 1 in 11
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 17 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik 1274 38 -9 12 9.4 +2.6
Fram Reykjavik 1251 38 +9 8 9.4 -1.4
IA Akranes 1217 30 +24 12 8.6 +3.4
KR Reykjavik 1203 29 +43 11 7.1 +3.9
Keflavik IF 1134 28 -3 6 7.6 -1.6
Thor Akureyri 1098 22 -41 4 7.3 -3.3
FH Hafnarfjordur 986 19 -10 5 4.9 +0.1
Vidir Gardur 1039 19 +9 3 5.4 -2.4
Breidablik 1036 16 -17 4 5.5 -1.5
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 999 12 -4 6 4.5 +1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VG
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-2
1.62
0-2-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.08
1-0-1
1.78
0-0-2
3.29
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
2.26
 —
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.45
1-0-1
2.74
0-2-0
1.77
1-0-1
1.84
1-0-1
1.69
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
2.60
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.51
1-1-0
4.11
 —
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
3.14
0-1-1
3.36
2-0-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
3.94
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
4.15
0-1-1
3.09
 —
2-0-0
4.01
0-1-1
3.28
1-0-1
3.55
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.54
0-1-1
4.19
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
2.23
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-2
1.46
0-0-2
1.58
 —
0-1-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
1.22
2-0-0
2.42
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.54
0-2-0
3.81
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
3.53
 —
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
1.99
0-1-1
3.87
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.45
 —
0-0-2
2.86
1-0-1
1.94
1-0-1
3.51
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
3.48
1-0-1
3.89
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-2
2.36
2-0-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.70
 —
1-0-1
2.23
0-2-0
3.82
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.80
2-0-0
4.37
1-1-0
3.32
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
4.41
0-1-1
3.58
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.33
 —
2-0-0
4.24
Vidir Gardur
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
1.65
1-1-0
1.42
0-0-2
3.14
1-1-0
1.70
1-0-1
2.05
0-2-0
1.76
0-0-2
1.36
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +10.9
Allowed 0.80 -7.0
Differential 0.93 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%12.22%0.56%3.33%1.67%1.67%27.22%
112.22%8.89%8.33%3.33%2.78%1.67%37.22%
20.56%8.33%4.44%3.33%——16.67%
33.33%3.33%3.33%—0.56%—10.56%
41.67%2.78%—0.56%——5.00%
5+1.67%1.67%————3.33%
Total27.22%37.22%16.67%10.56%5.00%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.05
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%———11.11%27.78%
111.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.84 1.83 2.29
CV 0.84 0.94 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%———5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%22.22%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.00 -0.67
SD 1.08 1.64 2.11
CV 0.81 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total33.33%61.11%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.72 +1.44
SD 1.79 0.57 1.82
CV 0.83 0.80 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.22 +0.61
SD 1.54 0.94 1.82
CV 0.84 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—11.11%5.56%—33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total—38.89%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.39 -1.28
SD 1.08 1.38 1.78
CV 0.97 0.58 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%————33.33%
111.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.56 +0.61
SD 1.20 0.70 1.38
CV 1.03 1.27 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
122.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
2—16.67%—16.67%——33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.09 1.25 1.68
CV 0.79 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—11.11%——38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—16.67%————16.67%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.72 -0.56
SD 1.25 1.27 1.58
CV 1.07 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
138.89%5.56%5.56%———50.00%
2———————
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total61.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.61 +1.11
SD 1.93 0.92 2.32
CV 1.12 1.50 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
116.67%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.39 -0.22
SD 1.25 1.42 2.05
CV 1.07 1.02 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1274 38 34.10 +3.90 81.0% 20 27 31 34 37 41 47
Fram Reykjavik 1251 38 28.87 +9.13 97.0% 15 20 26 30 32 37 47
IA Akranes 1217 30 32.12 -2.12 38.0% 20 22 29 32 36 41 44
KR Reykjavik 1203 29 27.75 +1.25 63.0% 16 20 24 27 31 37 43
Keflavik IF 1134 28 25.72 +2.28 70.0% 13 16 22 26 29 35 38
Thor Akureyri 1098 22 27.40 -5.40 23.0% 13 17 23 28 31 36 42
Vidir Gardur 1039 19 17.84 +1.16 62.0% 9 11 13 17 22 26 30
Breidablik 1036 16 22.12 -6.12 17.0% 6 14 18 22 26 32 36
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 999 12 17.39 -5.39 15.0% 4 10 13 16 21 28 34
FH Hafnarfjordur 986 19 17.84 +1.16 64.0% 7 10 14 18 21 27 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
Slight Edge
42.22%21.11%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.
161 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Fram Reykjavik, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.26 * Some Luck: 4.26 to 6.39 * Lucky: 6.39 to 8.53 * Wild Swing: 8.53 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.89 * Off: 1.89 to 2.52 * Way Off: 2.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.89 * A Surprise: 0.89 to 1.42 * Several Surprises: 1.42 to 1.96 * Many Surprises: 1.96 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.56 points
Some Luck
05.3313
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.584
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
15.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Many Surprises
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 107.33
1.56
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Clear Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.70
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.101
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Fram Reykjavik10.00%16.00%18.00%23.00%7.00%14.00%7.00%2.00%3.00%—
Valur Reykjavik47.00%18.00%16.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%——
IA Akranes23.00%30.00%18.00%12.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%——
KR Reykjavik8.00%10.00%15.00%17.00%19.00%14.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%—
Keflavik IF6.00%3.00%11.00%14.00%21.00%14.00%17.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%
Thor Akureyri6.00%18.00%11.00%16.00%15.00%13.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%
Vidir Gardur——1.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%16.00%21.00%22.00%29.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——1.00%1.00%6.00%11.00%9.00%25.00%23.00%24.00%
Breidablik—4.00%5.00%2.00%14.00%17.00%17.00%20.00%15.00%6.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—1.00%4.00%1.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%13.00%25.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
KR Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Fram Reykjavik 97.00% 3.00%
Keflavik IF 92.00% 8.00%
Thor Akureyri 92.00% 8.00%
Breidablik 79.00% 21.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 53.00% 47.00%
Vidir Gardur 49.00% 51.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 40.00% 60.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1986-05-17 Keflavik IF W 1-042.4 1110 1155 35.16% 22.34% 42.50%-0.16 +8.6 3
1986-05-17 @ Breidablik L 0-142.4 1155 1110 42.50% 22.34% 35.16%+0.16 -8.6 0
1986-05-17 Fram Reykjavik D 0-049.2 1203 1140 50.13% 21.94% 27.94%+0.51 -1.1 1
1986-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-049.2 1140 1203 27.94% 21.94% 50.13%-0.51 +1.1 1
1986-05-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-033.2 1130 1085 47.70% 22.11% 30.18%+0.40 +23.3 3
1986-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-433.2 1085 1130 30.18% 22.11% 47.70%-0.40 -23.3 0
1986-05-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.9 1176 1226 34.54% 22.33% 43.14%-0.19 +8.2 3
1986-05-17 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-247.9 1226 1176 43.14% 22.33% 34.54%+0.19 -8.2 0
1986-05-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.5 1016 995 44.49% 22.28% 33.23%+0.25 -14.5 0
1986-05-17 @ Vidir Gardur W 3-145.5 995 1016 33.23% 22.28% 44.49%-0.25 +14.5 3
1986-05-20 Keflavik IF W 2-150.9 1009 1147 24.00% 21.47% 54.52%-0.74 +10.0 6
1986-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-250.9 1147 1009 54.52% 21.47% 24.00%+0.74 -10.0 0
1986-05-20 IA Akranes L 0-331.8 1062 1202 23.74% 21.44% 54.82%-0.75 -14.5 0
1986-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-031.8 1202 1062 54.82% 21.44% 23.74%+0.75 +14.5 4
1986-05-20 Breidablik L 0-145.8 1218 1119 54.50% 21.48% 24.02%+0.74 -10.6 0
1986-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-045.8 1119 1218 24.02% 21.48% 54.50%-0.74 +10.6 6
1986-05-20 KR Reykjavik D 0-049.3 1001 1153 22.54% 21.25% 56.21%-0.83 +1.7 1
1986-05-20 @ Vidir Gardur D 0-049.3 1153 1001 56.21% 21.25% 22.54%+0.83 -1.7 4
1986-05-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-147.5 1141 1184 35.43% 22.35% 42.22%-0.15 +8.0 4
1986-05-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-247.5 1184 1141 42.22% 22.35% 35.43%+0.15 -8.0 3
1986-05-23 Vidir Gardur L 0-148.6 1217 1003 66.46% 19.11% 14.43%+1.45 -12.6 4
1986-05-23 @ IA Akranes W 1-048.6 1003 1217 14.43% 19.11% 66.46%-1.45 +12.6 4
1986-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-433.9 1137 1207 31.86% 22.22% 45.93%-0.32 -24.4 0
1986-05-23 @ Keflavik IF W 4-033.9 1207 1137 45.93% 22.22% 31.86%+0.32 +24.4 3
1986-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.8 1152 1019 58.34% 20.91% 20.75%+0.94 -1.7 5
1986-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-153.8 1019 1152 20.75% 20.91% 58.34%-0.94 +1.7 7
1986-05-31 Valur Reykjavik L 0-134.2 1021 1231 17.42% 20.11% 62.48%-1.19 -4.0 7
1986-05-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-034.2 1231 1021 62.48% 20.11% 17.42%+1.19 +4.0 6
1986-05-31 Breidablik D 1-153.4 1047 1129 30.37% 22.13% 47.50%-0.39 +0.7 1
1986-05-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.4 1129 1047 47.50% 22.13% 30.37%+0.39 -0.7 7
1986-05-31 IA Akranes D 1-153.5 1150 1204 33.97% 22.31% 43.72%-0.22 +0.4 6
1986-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-153.5 1204 1150 43.72% 22.31% 33.97%+0.22 -0.4 5
1986-05-31 Thor Akureyri D 0-049.4 1015 1176 21.72% 21.10% 57.18%-0.88 +1.8 5
1986-05-31 @ Vidir Gardur D 0-049.4 1176 1015 57.18% 21.10% 21.72%+0.88 -1.8 4
1986-06-01 Keflavik IF L 0-143.6 1149 1112 46.58% 22.18% 31.24%+0.35 -9.2 4
1986-06-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-043.6 1112 1149 31.24% 22.18% 46.58%-0.35 +9.2 3
1986-06-06 Vidir Gardur L 0-146.1 1129 1017 55.96% 21.28% 22.76%+0.81 -10.8 7
1986-06-06 @ Breidablik W 1-046.1 1017 1129 22.76% 21.28% 55.96%-0.81 +10.8 8
1986-06-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-033.7 1204 1017 63.93% 19.77% 16.30%+1.28 +3.7 8
1986-06-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-133.7 1017 1204 16.30% 19.77% 63.93%-1.28 -3.7 7
1986-06-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.5 1122 1048 51.42% 21.82% 26.76%+0.58 +5.9 6
1986-06-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.5 1048 1122 26.76% 21.82% 51.42%-0.58 -5.9 1
1986-06-06 KR Reykjavik L 0-143.1 1174 1150 44.90% 22.26% 32.84%+0.27 -9.0 4
1986-06-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-043.1 1150 1174 32.84% 22.26% 44.90%-0.27 +9.0 9
1986-06-06 Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.7 1235 1140 54.12% 21.52% 24.35%+0.72 -1.3 7
1986-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.7 1140 1235 24.35% 21.52% 54.12%-0.72 +1.3 5
1986-06-10 Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.1 1118 1141 38.24% 22.39% 39.37%-0.02 -7.9 7
1986-06-10 @ Breidablik W 1-041.1 1141 1118 39.37% 22.39% 38.24%+0.02 +7.9 8
1986-06-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-348.6 1165 1042 57.30% 21.08% 21.62%+0.89 +4.3 7
1986-06-10 @ Thor Akureyri L 3-448.6 1042 1165 21.62% 21.08% 57.30%-0.89 -4.2 1
1986-06-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-634.3 1013 1149 24.21% 21.50% 54.29%-0.72 -19.7 7
1986-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-134.3 1149 1013 54.29% 21.50% 24.21%+0.72 +19.7 11
1986-06-14 Thor Akureyri W 5-137.6 1207 1170 46.76% 22.17% 31.07%+0.35 +19.9 11
1986-06-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-537.6 1170 1207 31.07% 22.17% 46.76%-0.35 -19.9 7
1986-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 0-134.6 1038 1234 18.58% 20.42% 61.00%-1.10 -4.2 1
1986-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-034.6 1234 1038 61.00% 20.42% 18.58%+1.10 +4.2 10
1986-06-14 Keflavik IF W 3-039.7 1028 1128 28.23% 21.96% 49.81%-0.50 +26.8 11
1986-06-14 @ Vidir Gardur L 0-339.7 1128 1028 49.81% 21.96% 28.23%+0.50 -26.8 6
1986-06-15 Breidablik W 3-141.0 1159 1110 48.32% 22.07% 29.61%+0.43 +10.5 12
1986-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-341.0 1110 1159 29.61% 22.07% 48.32%-0.43 -10.5 7
1986-06-19 IA Akranes L 1-437.2 1099 1227 25.04% 21.62% 53.34%-0.68 -12.8 7
1986-06-19 @ Breidablik W 4-137.2 1227 1099 53.34% 21.62% 25.04%+0.68 +12.8 14
1986-06-19 Vidir Gardur W 1-033.9 1238 1055 63.61% 19.85% 16.54%+1.26 +3.8 13
1986-06-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-133.9 1055 1238 16.54% 19.85% 63.61%-1.26 -3.8 11
1986-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-030.6 1169 1034 58.59% 20.87% 20.54%+0.96 +12.7 14
1986-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-330.6 1034 1169 20.54% 20.87% 58.59%-0.96 -12.7 1
1986-06-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-148.5 1101 1170 32.02% 22.22% 45.76%-0.31 +8.6 9
1986-06-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-248.5 1170 1101 45.76% 22.22% 32.02%+0.31 -8.6 12
1986-06-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-139.8 1150 993 60.88% 20.44% 18.67%+1.09 +4.0 10
1986-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-239.8 993 1150 18.67% 20.44% 60.88%-1.09 -4.0 7
1986-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-141.9 989 1021 37.06% 22.38% 40.57%-0.08 +19.1 10
1986-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-441.9 1021 989 40.57% 22.38% 37.06%+0.08 -19.1 1
1986-06-23 Fram Reykjavik L 0-431.5 1051 1181 24.79% 21.58% 53.63%-0.69 -19.7 11
1986-06-23 @ Vidir Gardur W 4-031.5 1181 1051 53.63% 21.58% 24.79%+0.69 +19.7 17
1986-06-24 Keflavik IF L 1-251.9 1240 1109 58.13% 20.95% 20.92%+0.93 -10.6 14
1986-06-24 @ IA Akranes W 2-151.9 1109 1240 20.92% 20.95% 58.13%-0.93 +10.6 12
1986-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.2 1161 1242 30.50% 22.14% 47.36%-0.38 +0.8 13
1986-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-049.2 1242 1161 47.36% 22.14% 30.50%+0.38 -0.8 14
1986-06-24 Breidablik D 1-153.5 1154 1086 50.60% 21.89% 27.50%+0.54 -1.0 11
1986-06-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-153.5 1086 1154 27.50% 21.89% 50.60%-0.54 +1.0 8
1986-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-142.4 1087 1008 52.09% 21.75% 26.15%+0.61 +5.4 11
1986-06-27 @ Breidablik L 1-242.4 1008 1087 26.15% 21.75% 52.09%-0.61 -5.4 10
1986-06-27 Thor Akureyri L 2-350.8 1120 1153 36.90% 22.38% 40.72%-0.08 -6.9 12
1986-06-27 @ Keflavik IF W 3-250.8 1153 1120 40.72% 22.38% 36.90%+0.08 +6.9 14
1986-06-28 IA Akranes W 1-040.3 1241 1230 43.21% 22.32% 34.46%+0.19 +7.3 17
1986-06-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-140.3 1230 1241 34.46% 22.32% 43.21%-0.19 -7.3 14
1986-06-30 KR Reykjavik W 2-144.1 1201 1162 46.92% 22.16% 30.91%+0.36 +6.3 20
1986-06-30 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-244.1 1162 1201 30.91% 22.16% 46.92%-0.36 -6.3 13
1986-06-30 Vidir Gardur W 3-251.8 1002 1031 37.37% 22.38% 40.25%-0.06 +7.3 4
1986-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-351.8 1031 1002 40.25% 22.38% 37.37%+0.06 -7.3 11
1986-07-03 IA Akranes W 3-143.9 1207 1222 39.42% 22.39% 38.19%+0.03 +12.9 23
1986-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-343.9 1222 1207 38.19% 22.39% 39.42%-0.03 -12.9 14
1986-07-04 Vidir Gardur W 2-146.5 1003 1024 38.57% 22.39% 39.05%-0.01 +7.6 13
1986-07-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-246.5 1024 1003 39.05% 22.39% 38.57%+0.01 -7.6 11
1986-07-05 KR Reykjavik D 1-153.6 1009 1156 23.11% 21.34% 55.55%-0.79 +1.4 5
1986-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.6 1156 1009 55.55% 21.34% 23.11%+0.79 -1.5 14
1986-07-06 Breidablik W 1-039.6 1113 1093 44.38% 22.28% 33.34%+0.25 +7.1 15
1986-07-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-139.6 1093 1113 33.34% 22.28% 44.38%-0.25 -7.1 11
1986-07-06 Thor Akureyri W 1-037.1 1249 1160 53.30% 21.62% 25.07%+0.67 +5.6 20
1986-07-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-137.1 1160 1249 25.07% 21.62% 53.30%-0.67 -5.6 14
1986-07-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-033.4 1209 1011 65.06% 19.49% 15.45%+1.36 +3.5 17
1986-07-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-133.4 1011 1209 15.45% 19.49% 65.06%-1.36 -3.5 5
1986-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-334.7 1154 1220 32.39% 22.24% 45.37%-0.29 -18.9 14
1986-07-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-034.7 1220 1154 45.37% 22.24% 32.39%+0.29 +18.9 26
1986-07-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-731.6 1086 1254 21.02% 20.97% 58.01%-0.93 -28.8 11
1986-07-13 @ Breidablik W 7-031.6 1254 1086 58.01% 20.97% 21.02%+0.93 +28.8 23
1986-07-13 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-246.3 1120 1010 55.76% 21.31% 22.93%+0.80 +4.6 18
1986-07-13 @ Keflavik IF L 2-346.3 1010 1120 22.93% 21.31% 55.76%-0.80 -4.6 13
1986-07-14 Vidir Gardur L 0-146.8 1154 1016 58.92% 20.81% 20.26%+0.98 -11.3 14
1986-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-046.8 1016 1154 20.26% 20.81% 58.92%-0.98 +11.4 14
1986-07-17 Keflavik IF L 0-147.5 1283 1125 61.06% 20.41% 18.53%+1.10 -11.7 23
1986-07-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-047.5 1125 1283 18.53% 20.41% 61.06%-1.10 +11.7 21
1986-07-18 IA Akranes D 2-259.3 1028 1213 19.50% 20.64% 59.85%-1.03 +1.4 15
1986-07-18 @ Vidir Gardur D 2-259.3 1213 1028 59.85% 20.64% 19.50%+1.03 -1.4 18
1986-07-19 KR Reykjavik D 0-049.2 1006 1143 24.08% 21.49% 54.43%-0.73 +1.5 14
1986-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-049.2 1143 1006 54.43% 21.49% 24.08%+0.73 -1.5 15
1986-07-19 Thor Akureyri L 1-242.1 1007 1135 25.04% 21.62% 53.35%-0.68 -5.2 5
1986-07-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-142.1 1135 1007 53.35% 21.62% 25.04%+0.68 +5.2 17
1986-07-20 Breidablik W 2-139.1 1239 1057 63.45% 19.88% 16.66%+1.25 +3.6 29
1986-07-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-239.1 1057 1239 16.66% 19.88% 63.45%-1.25 -3.6 11
1986-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-258.8 1053 1002 48.59% 22.05% 29.35%+0.44 -0.6 12
1986-07-26 @ Breidablik D 2-258.8 1002 1053 29.35% 22.05% 48.59%-0.44 +0.6 6
1986-07-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-242.0 1212 1141 50.97% 21.86% 27.17%+0.56 -18.8 18
1986-07-26 @ IA Akranes W 2-042.0 1141 1212 27.17% 21.86% 50.97%-0.56 +18.8 18
1986-07-26 Vidir Gardur D 1-153.6 1140 1029 55.94% 21.29% 22.78%+0.81 -1.5 18
1986-07-26 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-153.6 1029 1140 22.78% 21.29% 55.94%-0.81 +1.5 16
1986-07-27 Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.6 1137 1243 27.48% 21.89% 50.63%-0.54 +1.0 22
1986-07-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-153.6 1243 1137 50.63% 21.89% 27.48%+0.54 -1.0 30
1986-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-026.6 1271 1007 70.70% 17.78% 11.51%+1.76 +11.5 26
1986-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-526.6 1007 1271 11.51% 17.78% 70.70%-1.76 -11.5 14
1986-08-08 IA Akranes L 1-434.8 996 1193 18.52% 20.41% 61.07%-1.10 -9.8 14
1986-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-134.8 1193 996 61.07% 20.41% 18.52%+1.10 +9.7 21
1986-08-08 Thor Akureyri D 0-049.1 1160 1139 44.54% 22.28% 33.18%+0.25 -0.5 19
1986-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-049.1 1139 1160 33.18% 22.28% 44.54%-0.25 +0.5 19
1986-08-08 Breidablik W 5-036.2 1031 1053 38.38% 22.39% 39.23%-0.02 +35.5 19
1986-08-08 @ Vidir Gardur L 0-536.2 1053 1031 39.23% 22.39% 38.38%+0.02 -35.5 12
1986-08-09 Keflavik IF L 1-436.8 1002 1138 24.29% 21.52% 54.19%-0.72 -12.5 6
1986-08-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-136.8 1138 1002 54.19% 21.52% 24.29%+0.72 +12.5 25
1986-08-10 Valur Reykjavik L 0-140.8 1242 1283 35.73% 22.36% 41.91%-0.14 -7.5 30
1986-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.8 1283 1242 41.91% 22.36% 35.73%+0.14 +7.5 29
1986-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 1-241.6 1017 1160 23.54% 21.41% 55.06%-0.76 -5.0 12
1986-08-16 @ Breidablik W 2-141.6 1160 1017 55.06% 21.41% 23.54%+0.76 +5.0 22
1986-08-16 IA Akranes L 1-342.1 1139 1202 32.78% 22.26% 44.96%-0.27 -11.4 19
1986-08-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-142.1 1202 1139 44.96% 22.26% 32.78%+0.27 +11.4 24
1986-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-133.5 1290 990 73.51% 16.74% 9.75%+1.99 +3.6 32
1986-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-333.5 990 1290 9.75% 16.74% 73.51%-1.99 -3.6 6
1986-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-260.0 1234 986 69.41% 18.22% 12.37%+1.66 -2.0 31
1986-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-260.0 986 1234 12.37% 18.22% 69.41%-1.66 +2.0 15
1986-08-17 Vidir Gardur W 2-142.3 1150 1066 52.70% 21.69% 25.62%+0.64 +5.3 28
1986-08-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-242.3 1066 1150 25.62% 21.69% 52.70%-0.64 -5.3 19
1986-08-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-133.6 1061 1294 15.75% 19.59% 64.66%-1.33 -3.6 19
1986-08-22 @ Vidir Gardur W 1-033.6 1294 1061 64.66% 19.59% 15.75%+1.33 +3.6 35
1986-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 1-045.7 988 1128 23.79% 21.44% 54.77%-0.75 +10.6 18
1986-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-145.7 1128 988 54.77% 21.44% 23.79%+0.75 -10.6 19
1986-08-23 Fram Reykjavik L 1-531.7 986 1232 14.88% 19.28% 65.83%-1.41 -10.2 6
1986-08-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-131.7 1232 986 65.83% 19.28% 14.88%+1.41 +10.2 34
1986-08-24 Keflavik IF W 1-040.1 1165 1155 42.87% 22.33% 34.80%+0.18 +7.3 25
1986-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.1 1155 1165 34.80% 22.33% 42.87%-0.18 -7.3 28
1986-08-25 Breidablik W 2-138.5 1214 1012 65.31% 19.42% 15.27%+1.37 +3.3 27
1986-08-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-238.5 1012 1214 15.27% 19.42% 65.31%-1.37 -3.3 12
1986-09-06 Thor Akureyri W 3-040.0 1009 1117 27.23% 21.87% 50.90%-0.55 +27.3 15
1986-09-06 @ Breidablik L 0-340.0 1117 1009 50.90% 21.87% 27.23%+0.55 -27.3 19
1986-09-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-144.0 976 999 38.35% 22.39% 39.26%-0.02 +13.1 9
1986-09-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-344.0 999 976 39.26% 22.39% 38.35%+0.02 -13.1 18
1986-09-06 IA Akranes L 2-349.4 1148 1217 31.99% 22.22% 45.78%-0.31 -6.1 28
1986-09-06 @ Keflavik IF W 3-249.4 1217 1148 45.78% 22.22% 31.99%+0.31 +6.1 30
1986-09-07 Vidir Gardur W 4-134.0 1242 1057 63.77% 19.81% 16.42%+1.27 +8.7 37
1986-09-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-434.0 1057 1242 16.42% 19.81% 63.77%-1.27 -8.7 19
1986-09-07 KR Reykjavik L 0-342.1 1297 1172 57.54% 21.04% 21.41%+0.90 -30.4 35
1986-09-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-042.1 1172 1297 21.41% 21.04% 57.54%-0.90 +30.4 28
1986-09-13 Breidablik D 2-258.7 986 1036 34.41% 22.32% 43.27%-0.20 +0.3 19
1986-09-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-258.7 1036 986 43.27% 22.32% 34.41%+0.20 -0.3 16
1986-09-13 Valur Reykjavik L 2-350.7 1223 1267 35.39% 22.35% 42.27%-0.15 -6.6 30
1986-09-13 @ IA Akranes W 3-250.7 1267 1223 42.27% 22.35% 35.39%+0.15 +6.6 38
1986-09-13 Fram Reykjavik D 0-049.3 1202 1251 34.72% 22.33% 42.95%-0.18 +0.4 29
1986-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-049.3 1251 1202 42.95% 22.33% 34.72%+0.18 -0.4 38
1986-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-252.8 1090 1142 34.27% 22.32% 43.42%-0.20 +7.8 22
1986-09-13 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-352.8 1142 1090 43.42% 22.32% 34.27%+0.20 -7.8 28
1986-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-249.5 1048 989 49.55% 21.98% 28.47%+0.49 -9.2 19
1986-09-13 @ Vidir Gardur W 2-149.5 989 1048 28.47% 21.98% 49.55%-0.49 +9.2 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-05-23 14.43% Vidir Gardur 1003 1 @ IA Akranes 1217 0
2 1986-07-17 18.53% Keflavik IF 1125 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1283 0
3 1986-07-14 20.26% Vidir Gardur 1016 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1154 0
4 1986-06-24 20.92% Keflavik IF 1109 2 @ IA Akranes 1240 1
5 1986-09-07 21.41% KR Reykjavik 1172 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1297 0
6 1986-06-06 22.76% Vidir Gardur 1017 1 @ Breidablik 1129 0
7 1986-08-23 23.79% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 988 1 Thor Akureyri 1128 0
8 1986-05-20 24.00% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1009 2 Keflavik IF 1147 1
9 1986-05-20 24.02% Breidablik 1119 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1218 0
10 1986-07-26 27.17% KR Reykjavik 1141 2 @ IA Akranes 1212 0
11 1986-09-06 27.23% @ Breidablik 1009 3 Thor Akureyri 1117 0
12 1986-06-14 28.23% @ Vidir Gardur 1028 3 Keflavik IF 1128 0
13 1986-09-13 28.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 989 2 @ Vidir Gardur 1048 1
14 1986-06-01 31.24% Keflavik IF 1112 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1149 0
15 1986-06-20 32.02% @ Keflavik IF 1101 2 KR Reykjavik 1170 1
16 1986-06-06 32.84% KR Reykjavik 1150 1 @ Thor Akureyri 1174 0
17 1986-05-17 33.23% FH Hafnarfjordur 995 3 @ Vidir Gardur 1016 1
18 1986-09-13 34.27% @ Thor Akureyri 1090 3 Keflavik IF 1142 2
19 1986-05-17 34.54% @ Thor Akureyri 1176 2 Valur Reykjavik 1226 1
20 1986-05-17 35.16% @ Breidablik 1110 1 Keflavik IF 1155 0
21 1986-05-21 35.43% @ Fram Reykjavik 1141 2 Thor Akureyri 1184 1
22 1986-06-23 37.06% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 989 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1021 1
23 1986-06-30 37.37% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1002 3 Vidir Gardur 1031 2
24 1986-09-06 38.35% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 976 3 FH Hafnarfjordur 999 1
25 1986-08-08 38.38% @ Vidir Gardur 1031 5 Breidablik 1053 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-08-08 35.46 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1031 38.38% Breidablik 0 1053 39.23% 22.39%
2 1986-09-07 30.44 KR Reykjavik 3 1172 21.41% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1297 57.54% 21.04%
3 1986-07-13 28.80 Valur Reykjavik 7 1254 58.01% @ Breidablik 0 1086 21.02% 20.97%
4 1986-09-06 27.31 @ Breidablik 3 1009 27.23% Thor Akureyri 0 1117 50.90% 21.87%
5 1986-06-14 26.80 @ Vidir Gardur 3 1028 28.23% Keflavik IF 0 1128 49.81% 21.96%
6 1986-05-23 24.38 Valur Reykjavik 4 1207 45.93% @ Keflavik IF 0 1137 31.86% 22.22%
7 1986-05-17 23.32 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1130 47.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1085 30.18% 22.11%
8 1986-06-14 19.91 @ IA Akranes 5 1207 46.76% Thor Akureyri 1 1170 31.07% 22.17%
9 1986-06-23 19.72 Fram Reykjavik 4 1181 53.63% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1051 24.79% 21.58%
10 1986-06-14 19.71 Fram Reykjavik 6 1149 54.29% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1013 24.21% 21.50%
11 1986-06-23 19.07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 989 37.06% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1021 40.57% 22.38%
12 1986-07-12 18.91 Fram Reykjavik 3 1220 45.37% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1154 32.39% 22.24%
13 1986-07-26 18.82 KR Reykjavik 2 1141 27.17% @ IA Akranes 0 1212 50.97% 21.86%
14 1986-05-17 14.53 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 995 33.23% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1016 44.49% 22.28%
15 1986-05-20 14.52 IA Akranes 3 1202 54.82% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1062 23.74% 21.44%
16 1986-09-06 13.14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 976 38.35% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 999 39.26% 22.39%
17 1986-07-03 12.86 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1207 39.42% IA Akranes 1 1222 38.19% 22.39%
18 1986-06-19 12.84 IA Akranes 4 1227 53.34% @ Breidablik 1 1099 25.04% 21.62%
19 1986-06-20 12.73 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1169 58.59% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1034 20.54% 20.87%
20 1986-05-23 12.65 Vidir Gardur 1 1003 14.43% @ IA Akranes 0 1217 66.46% 19.11%
21 1986-08-09 12.50 Keflavik IF 4 1138 54.19% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1002 24.29% 21.52%
22 1986-07-17 11.73 Keflavik IF 1 1125 18.53% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1283 61.06% 20.41%
23 1986-07-27 11.52 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1271 70.70% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1007 11.51% 17.78%
24 1986-08-16 11.39 IA Akranes 3 1202 44.96% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1139 32.78% 22.26%
25 1986-07-14 11.36 Vidir Gardur 1 1016 20.26% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1154 58.92% 20.81%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-08-17 60.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1234 69.41% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 986 12.37% 18.22%
2 1986-07-18 59.3 @ Vidir Gardur 2 1028 19.50% IA Akranes 2 1213 59.85% 20.64%
3 1986-07-26 58.8 @ Breidablik 2 1053 48.59% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1002 29.35% 22.05%
4 1986-09-13 58.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 986 34.41% Breidablik 2 1036 43.27% 22.32%
5 1986-05-23 53.8 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1152 58.34% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1019 20.75% 20.91%
6 1986-06-06 53.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1235 54.12% Fram Reykjavik 1 1140 24.35% 21.52%
7 1986-07-05 53.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1009 23.11% KR Reykjavik 1 1156 55.55% 21.34%
8 1986-07-26 53.6 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1140 55.94% Vidir Gardur 1 1029 22.78% 21.29%
9 1986-07-27 53.6 @ Keflavik IF 1 1137 27.48% Fram Reykjavik 1 1243 50.63% 21.89%
10 1986-05-31 53.5 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1150 33.97% IA Akranes 1 1204 43.72% 22.31%
11 1986-06-24 53.5 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1154 50.60% Breidablik 1 1086 27.50% 21.89%
12 1986-05-31 53.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1047 30.37% Breidablik 1 1129 47.50% 22.13%
13 1986-09-13 52.8 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1090 34.27% Keflavik IF 2 1142 43.42% 22.32%
14 1986-06-24 51.9 Keflavik IF 2 1109 20.92% @ IA Akranes 1 1240 58.13% 20.95%
15 1986-06-30 51.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1002 37.37% Vidir Gardur 2 1031 40.25% 22.38%
16 1986-05-20 50.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1009 24.00% Keflavik IF 1 1147 54.52% 21.47%
17 1986-06-27 50.8 Thor Akureyri 3 1153 40.72% @ Keflavik IF 2 1120 36.90% 22.38%
18 1986-09-13 50.7 Valur Reykjavik 3 1267 42.27% @ IA Akranes 2 1223 35.39% 22.35%
19 1986-09-13 49.5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 989 28.47% @ Vidir Gardur 1 1048 49.55% 21.98%
20 1986-05-31 49.4 @ Vidir Gardur 0 1015 21.72% Thor Akureyri 0 1176 57.18% 21.10%
21 1986-09-06 49.4 IA Akranes 3 1217 45.78% @ Keflavik IF 2 1148 31.99% 22.22%
22 1986-05-20 49.3 @ Vidir Gardur 0 1001 22.54% KR Reykjavik 0 1153 56.21% 21.25%
23 1986-09-13 49.3 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1202 34.72% Fram Reykjavik 0 1251 42.95% 22.33%
24 1986-05-17 49.2 @ IA Akranes 0 1203 50.13% Fram Reykjavik 0 1140 27.94% 21.94%
25 1986-06-24 49.2 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1161 30.50% Valur Reykjavik 0 1242 47.36% 22.14%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-07-27 26.6 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1271 70.70% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1007 11.51% 17.78%
2 1986-06-20 30.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1169 58.59% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1034 20.54% 20.87%
3 1986-06-23 31.5 Fram Reykjavik 4 1181 53.63% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1051 24.79% 21.58%
4 1986-07-13 31.6 Valur Reykjavik 7 1254 58.01% @ Breidablik 0 1086 21.02% 20.97%
5 1986-08-23 31.7 Fram Reykjavik 5 1232 65.83% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 986 14.88% 19.28%
6 1986-05-20 31.8 IA Akranes 3 1202 54.82% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1062 23.74% 21.44%
7 1986-05-17 33.2 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1130 47.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1085 30.18% 22.11%
8 1986-07-12 33.4 @ IA Akranes 1 1209 65.06% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1011 15.45% 19.49%
9 1986-08-16 33.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1290 73.51% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 990 9.75% 16.74%
10 1986-08-22 33.6 Valur Reykjavik 1 1294 64.66% @ Vidir Gardur 0 1061 15.75% 19.59%
11 1986-06-06 33.7 @ IA Akranes 1 1204 63.93% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1017 16.30% 19.77%
12 1986-05-23 33.9 Valur Reykjavik 4 1207 45.93% @ Keflavik IF 0 1137 31.86% 22.22%
13 1986-06-19 33.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1238 63.61% Vidir Gardur 0 1055 16.54% 19.85%
14 1986-09-07 34.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1242 63.77% Vidir Gardur 1 1057 16.42% 19.81%
15 1986-05-31 34.2 Valur Reykjavik 1 1231 62.48% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1021 17.42% 20.11%
16 1986-06-14 34.3 Fram Reykjavik 6 1149 54.29% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1013 24.21% 21.50%
17 1986-06-14 34.6 Valur Reykjavik 1 1234 61.00% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1038 18.58% 20.42%
18 1986-07-12 34.7 Fram Reykjavik 3 1220 45.37% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1154 32.39% 22.24%
19 1986-08-08 34.8 IA Akranes 4 1193 61.07% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 996 18.52% 20.41%
20 1986-08-08 36.2 @ Vidir Gardur 5 1031 38.38% Breidablik 0 1053 39.23% 22.39%
21 1986-08-09 36.8 Keflavik IF 4 1138 54.19% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1002 24.29% 21.52%
22 1986-07-06 37.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1249 53.30% Thor Akureyri 0 1160 25.07% 21.62%
23 1986-06-19 37.2 IA Akranes 4 1227 53.34% @ Breidablik 1 1099 25.04% 21.62%
24 1986-06-06 37.5 @ Keflavik IF 1 1122 51.42% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1048 26.76% 21.82%
25 1986-06-14 37.6 @ IA Akranes 5 1207 46.76% Thor Akureyri 1 1170 31.07% 22.17%