1985 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

38 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 1980.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

7 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Thor Akureyri

6.51 points above expected

35 points · 28.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

8.70 points below expected

7 points · 15.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik Champion	18	11	5	2	38	28	12	+16	31.53	+6.47
2	IA Akranes	18	11	3	4	36	37	20	+17	33.07	+2.93
3	Thor Akureyri	18	11	2	5	35	33	21	+12	28.49	+6.51
4	Fram Reykjavik	18	10	4	4	34	37	26	+11	32.60	+1.40
5	Keflavik IF	18	9	2	7	29	31	23	+8	27.19	+1.81
6	KR Reykjavik	18	8	5	5	29	32	26	+6	27.71	+1.29
7	FH Hafnarfjordur	18	5	2	11	17	23	41	-18	19.48	-2.48
8	Vidir Gardur	18	4	4	10	16	21	38	-17	17.49	-1.49
9	Throttur Reykjavik Relegated	18	3	4	11	13	18	32	-14	19.78	-6.78
10	Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated	18	2	1	15	7	17	38	-21	15.70	-8.70

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Thor Akureyri	35	28.49	+6.51
2	Valur Reykjavik	38	31.53	+6.47
3	IA Akranes	36	33.07	+2.93
4	Keflavik IF	29	27.19	+1.81
5	Fram Reykjavik	34	32.60	+1.40

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	7	15.70	-8.70
2	Throttur Reykjavik	13	19.78	-6.78
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	17	19.48	-2.48
4	Vidir Gardur	16	17.49	-1.49
5	KR Reykjavik	29	27.71	+1.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	3	Jul 21 – Aug 10	1 in 17
2	Fram Reykjavik	5	Jun 1 – Jun 30	1 in 12
3	Valur Reykjavik	4	Jul 1 – Jul 24	1 in 11
4	IA Akranes	4	Jun 29 – Jul 24	1 in 9
5	Keflavik IF	3	Aug 10 – Aug 19	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	13	May 19 – Aug 20	1 in 2,343
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	Jun 30 – Jul 25	1 in 17
3	Throttur Reykjavik	5	Jul 21 – Aug 19	1 in 16
4	Vidir Gardur	3	May 14 – May 22	1 in 14
5	Fram Reykjavik	2	Jul 6 – Jul 20	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	13	Jun 22 – Sep 12	1 in 78
2	Throttur Reykjavik	3	Aug 28 – Sep 7	1 in 15
3	KR Reykjavik	5	May 13 – Jun 15	1 in 13
4	Fram Reykjavik	8	May 16 – Jun 30	1 in 10
5	Vidir Gardur	2	Jun 21 – Jun 25	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Throttur Reykjavik	12	Jun 25 – Sep 14	1 in 93
2	Vikingur Reykjavik	14	May 19 – Aug 28	1 in 65
3	KR Reykjavik	4	Aug 29 – Sep 12	1 in 15
4	Keflavik IF	3	Jun 1 – Jun 22	1 in 7
5	IA Akranes	2	Jun 22 – Jun 25	1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik	1136	38	+87	13	9.2	+3.8
IA Akranes	1097	36	+9	10	9.1	+0.9
Thor Akureyri	1050	35	+27	10	9.2	+0.8
Fram Reykjavik	989	34	+36	8	8.5	-0.5
Keflavik IF	1008	29	-35	7	9.5	-2.5
KR Reykjavik	966	29	-45	5	8.5	-3.5
FH Hafnarfjordur	741	17	-62	4	4.7	-0.7
Vidir Gardur	773	16	-18	4	4.1	-0.1
Throttur Reykjavik	722	13	-10	3	4.5	-1.5
Vikingur Reykjavik	665	7	+11	4	3.1	+0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FH	FR	IA	KR	KI	TA	TR	VR	VG	VR
FH Hafnarfjordur	—	0-0-2 1.54	1-0-1 1.29	0-1-1 2.15	1-1-0 1.70	0-0-2 1.79	1-0-1 3.01	0-0-2 1.81	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 3.89
Fram Reykjavik	2-0-0 4.09	—	0-0-2 2.83	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 3.68	1-0-1 3.18	1-1-0 4.10	0-2-0 2.94	2-0-0 4.21	2-0-0 3.65
IA Akranes	1-0-1 4.35	2-0-0 2.80	—	0-1-1 3.67	1-0-1 3.54	1-0-1 3.52	2-0-0 4.39	0-2-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.94	2-0-0 4.72
KR Reykjavik	1-1-0 3.48	0-1-1 2.67	1-1-0 1.95	—	0-1-1 3.15	1-0-1 2.81	2-0-0 3.05	0-0-2 2.26	1-1-0 4.03	2-0-0 4.33
Keflavik IF	0-1-1 3.93	1-0-1 1.95	1-0-1 2.10	1-1-0 2.47	—	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 3.79	0-0-2 2.16	2-0-0 3.83	2-0-0 4.30
Thor Akureyri	2-0-0 3.84	1-0-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.11	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 3.14	—	1-1-0 3.88	1-0-1 2.41	1-1-0 4.05	2-0-0 3.93
Throttur Reykjavik	1-0-1 2.61	0-1-1 1.53	0-0-2 1.25	0-0-2 2.57	1-0-1 1.85	0-1-1 1.75	—	0-0-2 1.95	0-1-1 3.16	1-1-0 3.52
Valur Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.82	0-2-0 2.69	0-2-0 2.52	2-0-0 3.36	2-0-0 3.46	1-0-1 3.21	2-0-0 3.67	—	1-1-0 4.34	1-0-1 3.67
Vidir Gardur	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 1.69	0-1-1 1.60	0-0-2 1.80	0-1-1 1.58	1-1-0 2.47	0-1-1 1.31	—	2-0-0 2.69
Vikingur Reykjavik	1-0-1 1.74	0-0-2 1.98	0-0-2 0.94	0-0-2 1.31	0-0-2 1.34	0-0-2 1.70	0-1-1 2.10	1-0-1 1.96	0-0-2 2.94	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.82	+13.4
Allowed	0.79	-10.6
Differential	0.95	+7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	6.11%	6.67%	3.89%	0.56%	0.56%	23.33%
1	6.11%	10.00%	8.33%	5.00%	0.56%	1.67%	31.67%
2	6.67%	8.33%	2.22%	5.56%	—	0.56%	23.33%
3	3.89%	5.00%	5.56%	—	1.67%	—	16.11%
4	0.56%	0.56%	—	1.67%	—	—	2.78%
5+	0.56%	1.67%	0.56%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	23.33%	31.67%	23.33%	16.11%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	1.54	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.93
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.28	-1.00
SD	1.18	1.56	2.00
CV	0.92	0.69	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	44.44%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.44	+0.61
SD	1.39	1.54	2.12
CV	0.68	1.07	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	44.44%	11.11%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.11	+0.94
SD	1.92	1.13	2.15
CV	0.94	1.02	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	55.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.44	+0.33
SD	1.35	1.04	1.75
CV	0.76	0.72	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	55.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.28	+0.44
SD	1.18	0.96	1.72
CV	0.68	0.75	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	22.22%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.17	+0.67
SD	1.34	1.10	1.85
CV	0.73	0.94	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.78	-0.78
SD	1.03	1.44	1.44
CV	1.03	0.81	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	0.67	+0.89
SD	1.04	0.77	1.23
CV	0.67	1.15	—
Max	3	2	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
1	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	2.11	-0.94
SD	1.15	1.64	2.18
CV	0.99	0.78	—
Max	3	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
1	—	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	33.33%	33.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	2.11	-1.17
SD	1.06	1.02	1.10
CV	1.12	0.48	—
Max	3	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valur Reykjavik	1136	38	31.53	+6.47	92.0%	21	23	28	31	35	40	43
IA Akranes	1097	36	33.07	+2.93	74.0%	19	23	29	33	37	41	47
Thor Akureyri	1050	35	28.49	+6.51	94.0%	10	20	25	29	32	37	41
Keflavik IF	1008	29	27.19	+1.81	71.0%	14	18	23	26	31	37	46
Fram Reykjavik	989	34	32.60	+1.40	67.0%	18	24	30	33	36	39	43
KR Reykjavik	966	29	27.71	+1.29	68.0%	13	19	25	27	31	37	42
Vidir Gardur	773	16	17.49	-1.49	49.0%	8	10	13	17	21	26	32
FH Hafnarfjordur	741	17	19.48	-2.48	36.0%	5	11	16	19	22	29	33
Throttur Reykjavik	722	13	19.78	-6.78	7.0%	8	12	16	20	22	29	33
Vikingur Reykjavik	665	7	15.70	-8.70	3.0%	6	9	12	15	19	25	30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+13.33%

Clear Edge

47.78%17.78%34.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.

216 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.30 goals

Neutral

-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.6

Wide Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

28%

Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Tight Race

00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.2 * Some Luck: 4.2 to 6.3 * Lucky: 6.3 to 8.41 * Wild Swing: 8.41 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.8 * Off: 1.8 to 2.4 * Way Off: 2.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.82 * A Surprise: 0.82 to 1.31 * Several Surprises: 1.31 to 1.8 * Many Surprises: 1.8 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.79 points

Some Luck

05.2513

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.503

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.00%

Thor Akureyri

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.00%

Vikingur Reykjavik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Lopsided

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 172.39

1.91

Wide Separation

0.71.351.652.5

Interquartile Edge

84%

Wide Edge

50%63%69%75.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Occasional

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.54

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.39

Notable Separation

00.280.360.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.86

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.51

Some Carryover

00.330.590.751

Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Chalky

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Solid Favorites

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.84

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.22

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.103

Well Within Noise

00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valur Reykjavik	28.00%	14.00%	19.00%	16.00%	12.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	—	—
IA Akranes	27.00%	30.00%	16.00%	8.00%	11.00%	6.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Thor Akureyri	8.00%	13.00%	14.00%	19.00%	19.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%	—	1.00%
Fram Reykjavik	22.00%	26.00%	22.00%	17.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—
Keflavik IF	9.00%	6.00%	11.00%	12.00%	19.00%	22.00%	11.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—
KR Reykjavik	6.00%	8.00%	13.00%	18.00%	22.00%	18.00%	5.00%	7.00%	2.00%	1.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur	—	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	5.00%	10.00%	22.00%	20.00%	28.00%	10.00%
Vidir Gardur	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	7.00%	10.00%	22.00%	27.00%	28.00%
Throttur Reykjavik	—	2.00%	2.00%	6.00%	1.00%	11.00%	20.00%	22.00%	23.00%	13.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik	—	—	—	1.00%	—	6.00%	16.00%	14.00%	16.00%	47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik	100%	—
IA Akranes	100%	—
Valur Reykjavik	100%	—
Thor Akureyri	99.00%	1.00%
KR Reykjavik	97.00%	3.00%
Keflavik IF	96.00%	4.00%
Throttur Reykjavik	64.00%	36.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur	62.00%	38.00%
Vidir Gardur	45.00%	55.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik	37.00%	63.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1985-05-13	Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-3	51.7	904	902	47.37%	18.82%	33.81%	+0.23	+17.2	3
1985-05-13	@ KR Reykjavik	L 3-4	51.7	902	904	33.81%	18.82%	47.37%	-0.23	-17.2	0
1985-05-14	IA Akranes	W 2-0	37.0	906	958	39.72%	18.85%	41.42%	-0.03	+43.8	3
1985-05-14	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	37.0	958	906	41.42%	18.85%	39.72%	+0.03	-43.8	0
1985-05-14	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	44.1	930	887	52.66%	18.74%	28.60%	+0.42	-28.6	0
1985-05-14	@ Vidir Gardur	W 1-0	44.1	887	930	28.60%	18.74%	52.66%	-0.42	+28.6	3
1985-05-14	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	44.6	910	936	43.41%	18.85%	37.74%	+0.09	+20.3	3
1985-05-14	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	44.6	936	910	37.74%	18.85%	43.41%	-0.09	-20.3	0
1985-05-16	Keflavik IF	W 3-1	38.5	931	884	53.07%	18.73%	28.20%	+0.43	+27.5	3
1985-05-16	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	38.5	884	931	28.20%	18.73%	53.07%	-0.43	-27.5	0
1985-05-17	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	916	921	46.40%	18.83%	34.77%	+0.19	-1.4	4
1985-05-17	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	54.5	921	916	34.77%	18.83%	46.40%	-0.19	+1.4	4
1985-05-17	Vidir Gardur	W 7-0	33.7	915	902	48.83%	18.80%	32.36%	+0.28	+114.9	3
1985-05-17	@ IA Akranes	L 0-7	33.7	902	915	32.36%	18.80%	48.83%	-0.28	-114.9	0
1985-05-18	Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	42.3	916	884	51.21%	18.77%	30.02%	+0.36	+16.8	3
1985-05-18	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	42.3	884	916	30.02%	18.77%	51.21%	-0.36	-16.8	0
1985-05-19	Thor Akureyri	W 3-1	44.1	857	950	34.13%	18.82%	47.04%	-0.21	+42.2	3
1985-05-19	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	44.1	950	857	47.04%	18.82%	34.13%	+0.21	-42.2	3
1985-05-19	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	35.1	930	958	43.14%	18.85%	38.01%	+0.08	-65.8	3
1985-05-19	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-0	35.1	958	930	38.01%	18.85%	43.14%	-0.08	+65.8	6
1985-05-21	IA Akranes	D 1-1	54.5	922	1030	32.22%	18.80%	48.98%	-0.28	+2.1	5
1985-05-21	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	1030	922	48.98%	18.80%	32.22%	+0.28	-2.0	4
1985-05-22	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	60.0	1024	933	58.27%	18.59%	23.14%	+0.64	-3.3	7
1985-05-22	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	60.0	933	1024	23.14%	18.59%	58.27%	-0.64	+3.3	4
1985-05-22	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	41.8	908	864	52.71%	18.74%	28.55%	+0.42	+16.1	6
1985-05-22	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	41.8	864	908	28.55%	18.74%	52.71%	-0.42	-16.1	3
1985-05-22	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	42.8	787	899	31.58%	18.79%	49.63%	-0.30	-17.5	0
1985-05-22	@ Vidir Gardur	W 2-1	42.8	899	787	49.63%	18.79%	31.58%	+0.30	+17.5	6
1985-05-23	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	40.5	868	914	40.56%	18.85%	40.59%	+0.00	+22.8	3
1985-05-23	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	40.5	914	868	40.59%	18.85%	40.56%	+0.00	-22.8	4
1985-05-31	Throttur Reykjavik	W 1-0	33.8	1028	890	62.87%	18.39%	18.74%	+0.85	+11.8	7
1985-05-31	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	33.8	890	1028	18.74%	18.39%	62.87%	-0.85	-11.8	3
1985-05-31	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	30.7	936	891	52.83%	18.74%	28.43%	+0.42	+46.5	7
1985-05-31	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	30.7	891	936	28.43%	18.74%	52.83%	-0.42	-46.5	4
1985-06-01	Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	40.0	1021	924	58.89%	18.57%	22.55%	+0.67	+13.1	10
1985-06-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	40.0	924	1021	22.55%	18.57%	58.89%	-0.67	-13.1	6
1985-06-01	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	917	924	46.06%	18.83%	35.11%	+0.18	-1.3	7
1985-06-01	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	54.5	924	917	35.11%	18.83%	46.06%	-0.18	+1.3	6
1985-06-02	Vidir Gardur	L 0-1	45.3	848	769	56.86%	18.64%	24.50%	+0.58	-30.7	3
1985-06-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	45.3	769	848	24.50%	18.64%	56.86%	-0.58	+30.7	3
1985-06-14	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	46.6	910	982	36.98%	18.84%	44.17%	-0.12	+23.1	9
1985-06-14	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	46.6	982	910	44.17%	18.84%	36.98%	+0.12	-23.1	7
1985-06-15	IA Akranes	L 0-3	28.8	845	1039	22.15%	18.55%	59.30%	-0.68	-37.4	4
1985-06-15	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	28.8	1039	845	59.30%	18.55%	22.15%	+0.68	+37.4	10
1985-06-15	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	39.6	926	817	60.04%	18.52%	21.44%	+0.72	+12.5	9
1985-06-15	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	39.6	817	926	21.44%	18.52%	60.04%	-0.72	-12.5	3
1985-06-15	Fram Reykjavik	L 3-4	46.9	800	1034	18.42%	18.37%	63.21%	-0.87	-10.1	3
1985-06-15	@ Vidir Gardur	W 4-3	46.9	1034	800	63.21%	18.37%	18.42%	+0.87	+10.1	13
1985-06-16	Keflavik IF	W 1-0	40.0	879	915	42.00%	18.85%	39.15%	+0.05	+22.2	6
1985-06-16	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	40.0	915	879	39.15%	18.85%	42.00%	-0.05	-22.2	7
1985-06-20	KR Reykjavik	W 4-1	33.7	1044	938	59.80%	18.53%	21.66%	+0.71	+31.0	16
1985-06-20	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-4	33.7	938	1044	21.66%	18.53%	59.80%	-0.71	-30.9	9
1985-06-21	Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	54.6	934	790	63.48%	18.36%	18.16%	+0.88	-5.9	10
1985-06-21	@ Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	54.6	790	934	18.16%	18.36%	63.48%	-0.88	+5.9	4
1985-06-21	Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-3	40.1	805	901	33.70%	18.82%	47.48%	-0.23	-32.0	3
1985-06-21	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	40.1	901	805	47.48%	18.82%	33.70%	+0.23	+32.0	9
1985-06-22	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-3	47.3	893	808	57.62%	18.61%	23.76%	+0.61	-50.8	7
1985-06-22	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-1	47.3	808	893	23.76%	18.61%	57.62%	-0.61	+50.8	7
1985-06-22	IA Akranes	D 0-0	50.5	959	1077	30.94%	18.78%	50.27%	-0.33	+2.6	8
1985-06-22	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	1077	959	50.27%	18.78%	30.94%	+0.33	-2.7	11
1985-06-25	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-3	48.6	858	773	57.63%	18.61%	23.76%	+0.61	+12.7	10
1985-06-25	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 3-4	48.6	773	858	23.76%	18.61%	57.63%	-0.61	-12.7	3
1985-06-25	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	54.1	1074	842	70.40%	17.81%	11.79%	+1.29	-35.8	11
1985-06-25	@ IA Akranes	W 2-1	54.1	842	1074	11.79%	17.81%	70.40%	-1.29	+35.8	10
1985-06-25	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	32.9	933	1075	27.90%	18.73%	53.38%	-0.44	-31.5	9
1985-06-25	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-0	32.9	1075	933	53.38%	18.73%	27.90%	+0.44	+31.5	19
1985-06-25	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	796	962	25.12%	18.66%	56.22%	-0.55	+3.9	5
1985-06-25	@ Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	54.5	962	796	56.22%	18.66%	25.12%	+0.55	-3.9	9
1985-06-26	Thor Akureyri	W 3-2	49.5	907	928	44.26%	18.84%	36.90%	+0.12	+18.9	12
1985-06-26	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	49.5	928	907	36.90%	18.84%	44.26%	-0.12	-18.9	10
1985-06-29	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	33.5	800	926	29.81%	18.77%	51.42%	-0.37	-33.4	5
1985-06-29	@ Vidir Gardur	W 2-0	33.5	926	800	51.42%	18.77%	29.81%	+0.37	+33.3	15
1985-06-29	IA Akranes	L 2-3	42.7	760	1038	14.88%	18.12%	67.00%	-1.07	-8.5	3
1985-06-29	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-2	42.7	1038	760	67.00%	18.12%	14.88%	+1.07	+8.5	14
1985-06-30	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	27.8	1106	871	70.64%	17.79%	11.58%	+1.31	+14.2	22
1985-06-30	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	27.8	871	1106	11.58%	17.79%	70.64%	-1.31	-14.2	10
1985-06-30	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-2	48.4	909	901	48.09%	18.81%	33.10%	+0.25	+17.3	13
1985-06-30	@ Thor Akureyri	L 2-3	48.4	901	909	33.10%	18.81%	48.09%	-0.25	-17.3	9
1985-07-01	Keflavik IF	W 1-0	35.5	958	878	57.00%	18.63%	24.37%	+0.59	+14.9	12
1985-07-01	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	35.5	878	958	24.37%	18.63%	57.00%	-0.59	-14.9	10
1985-07-06	Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	35.8	857	926	37.37%	18.85%	43.79%	-0.10	-40.3	10
1985-07-06	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	35.8	926	857	43.79%	18.85%	37.37%	+0.10	+40.3	16
1985-07-06	Fram Reykjavik	W 6-2	41.2	1047	1121	36.71%	18.84%	44.45%	-0.13	+62.3	17
1985-07-06	@ IA Akranes	L 2-6	41.2	1121	1047	44.45%	18.84%	36.71%	+0.13	-62.3	22
1985-07-07	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	36.3	863	751	60.40%	18.51%	21.10%	+0.73	+21.4	13
1985-07-07	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	36.3	751	863	21.10%	18.51%	60.40%	-0.73	-21.4	3
1985-07-07	Vidir Gardur	D 2-2	60.0	884	766	61.00%	18.48%	20.52%	+0.76	-3.9	10
1985-07-07	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	60.0	766	884	20.52%	18.48%	61.00%	-0.76	+3.9	6
1985-07-08	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	46.9	959	973	45.22%	18.84%	35.94%	+0.15	-23.6	15
1985-07-08	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	46.9	973	959	35.94%	18.84%	45.22%	-0.15	+23.6	15
1985-07-20	Vidir Gardur	L 2-3	54.3	817	770	53.07%	18.73%	28.20%	+0.43	-25.8	10
1985-07-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-2	54.3	770	817	28.20%	18.73%	53.07%	-0.43	+25.8	9
1985-07-20	Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	38.7	1109	966	63.39%	18.36%	18.25%	+0.88	+10.8	20
1985-07-20	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	38.7	966	1109	18.25%	18.36%	63.39%	-0.88	-10.8	16
1985-07-20	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	39.2	885	1058	24.31%	18.63%	57.06%	-0.59	+84.5	16
1985-07-20	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-3	39.2	1058	885	57.06%	18.63%	24.31%	+0.59	-84.5	22
1985-07-20	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	30.9	997	730	72.56%	17.55%	9.89%	+1.45	+6.5	18
1985-07-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	30.9	730	997	9.89%	17.55%	72.56%	-1.45	-6.5	3
1985-07-21	KR Reykjavik	L 1-5	37.6	880	936	39.29%	18.85%	41.86%	-0.04	-66.3	10
1985-07-21	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 5-1	37.6	936	880	41.86%	18.85%	39.29%	+0.04	+66.3	18
1985-07-23	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	27.5	974	724	71.58%	17.68%	10.74%	+1.38	+13.2	25
1985-07-23	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	27.5	724	974	10.74%	17.68%	71.58%	-1.38	-13.2	3
1985-07-24	Keflavik IF	W 1-0	39.1	955	969	45.23%	18.84%	35.93%	+0.15	+20.7	19
1985-07-24	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-1	39.1	969	955	35.93%	18.84%	45.23%	-0.15	-20.7	16
1985-07-24	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	28.9	814	1003	22.68%	18.57%	58.74%	-0.66	-38.2	10
1985-07-24	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	28.9	1003	814	58.74%	18.57%	22.68%	+0.66	+38.2	21
1985-07-24	IA Akranes	L 0-2	27.9	796	1120	11.85%	17.82%	70.33%	-1.28	-14.5	9
1985-07-24	@ Vidir Gardur	W 2-0	27.9	1120	796	70.33%	17.82%	11.85%	+1.28	+14.5	23
1985-07-25	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	33.7	1002	791	68.98%	17.96%	13.07%	+1.19	+13.8	21
1985-07-25	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	33.7	791	1002	13.07%	17.96%	68.98%	-1.19	-13.8	10
1985-08-10	Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-0	34.8	777	776	47.28%	18.82%	33.90%	+0.22	+37.2	13
1985-08-10	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-2	34.8	776	777	33.90%	18.82%	47.28%	-0.22	-37.1	10
1985-08-10	KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	48.3	1134	1016	61.08%	18.48%	20.45%	+0.76	-53.8	23
1985-08-10	@ IA Akranes	W 3-1	48.3	1016	1134	20.45%	18.48%	61.08%	-0.76	+53.8	24
1985-08-10	Vidir Gardur	W 4-0	26.3	948	781	65.53%	18.23%	16.24%	+0.99	+37.0	19
1985-08-10	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-4	26.3	781	948	16.24%	18.23%	65.53%	-0.99	-37.0	9
1985-08-11	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	1041	987	54.00%	18.71%	27.29%	+0.47	-3.7	22
1985-08-11	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	987	1041	27.29%	18.71%	54.00%	-0.47	+3.7	26
1985-08-12	Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	37.9	710	976	15.81%	18.20%	65.99%	-1.01	-9.5	3
1985-08-12	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	37.9	976	710	65.99%	18.20%	15.81%	+1.01	+9.5	22
1985-08-14	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	39.0	814	1038	19.37%	18.42%	62.21%	-0.82	-11.4	13
1985-08-14	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	39.0	1038	814	62.21%	18.42%	19.37%	+0.82	+11.4	25
1985-08-14	IA Akranes	L 0-1	31.2	738	1081	10.82%	17.69%	71.50%	-1.37	-7.0	10
1985-08-14	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 1-0	31.2	1081	738	71.50%	17.69%	10.82%	+1.37	+7.1	26
1985-08-15	Keflavik IF	L 0-2	41.8	1070	985	57.48%	18.62%	23.91%	+0.61	-58.6	24
1985-08-15	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	41.8	985	1070	23.91%	18.62%	57.48%	-0.61	+58.6	22
1985-08-15	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	35.0	986	991	46.39%	18.83%	34.78%	+0.19	+38.0	25
1985-08-15	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	35.0	991	986	34.78%	18.83%	46.39%	-0.19	-37.9	26
1985-08-15	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-0	30.7	744	701	52.71%	18.74%	28.55%	+0.42	+46.7	12
1985-08-15	@ Vidir Gardur	L 0-3	30.7	701	744	28.55%	18.74%	52.71%	-0.42	-46.7	3
1985-08-17	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 2-3	60.1	1088	803	73.60%	17.40%	9.00%	+1.54	-35.6	26
1985-08-17	@ IA Akranes	W 3-2	60.1	803	1088	9.00%	17.40%	73.60%	-1.54	+35.6	16
1985-08-18	Thor Akureyri	W 3-0	31.4	1049	1024	50.42%	18.78%	30.79%	+0.33	+49.8	28
1985-08-18	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	31.4	1024	1049	30.79%	18.78%	50.42%	-0.33	-49.8	25
1985-08-19	Vidir Gardur	W 2-1	38.1	953	791	65.08%	18.26%	16.66%	+0.97	+10.0	29
1985-08-19	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	38.1	791	953	16.66%	18.26%	65.08%	-0.97	-10.0	12
1985-08-19	Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	35.2	1044	731	75.02%	17.16%	7.81%	+1.66	+4.8	25
1985-08-19	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	35.2	731	1044	7.81%	17.16%	75.02%	-1.66	-4.8	10
1985-08-20	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	27.2	654	1011	10.04%	17.57%	72.39%	-1.44	-12.4	3
1985-08-20	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	27.2	1011	654	72.39%	17.57%	10.04%	+1.44	+12.4	27
1985-08-28	Keflavik IF	D 1-1	54.6	838	1049	20.57%	18.48%	60.95%	-0.76	+5.2	17
1985-08-28	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	54.6	1049	838	60.95%	18.48%	20.57%	+0.76	-5.2	26
1985-08-28	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	1052	1099	40.57%	18.85%	40.58%	+0.00	+0.0	27
1985-08-28	@ IA Akranes	D 0-0	50.5	1099	1052	40.58%	18.85%	40.57%	+0.00	+0.0	29
1985-08-28	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	727	642	57.53%	18.62%	23.86%	+0.61	-4.8	11
1985-08-28	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.5	642	727	23.86%	18.62%	57.53%	-0.61	+4.8	4
1985-08-28	Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	31.2	781	974	22.32%	18.56%	59.12%	-0.68	-25.9	12
1985-08-28	@ Vidir Gardur	W 2-0	31.2	974	781	59.12%	18.56%	22.32%	+0.68	+25.9	28
1985-08-29	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	1023	963	54.77%	18.69%	26.53%	+0.50	-3.5	28
1985-08-29	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.5	963	1023	26.53%	18.69%	54.77%	-0.50	+3.5	30
1985-08-31	Vidir Gardur	W 3-1	31.4	1099	755	76.47%	16.88%	6.65%	+1.81	+7.1	32
1985-08-31	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	31.4	755	1099	6.65%	16.88%	76.47%	-1.81	-7.1	12
1985-09-01	Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.8	966	722	71.22%	17.72%	11.06%	+1.35	-8.1	31
1985-09-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.8	722	966	11.06%	17.72%	71.22%	-1.35	+8.1	12
1985-09-01	IA Akranes	L 2-3	52.2	1044	1052	45.93%	18.83%	35.23%	+0.18	-22.6	26
1985-09-01	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-2	52.2	1052	1044	35.23%	18.83%	45.93%	-0.18	+22.7	30
1985-09-01	KR Reykjavik	W 3-1	41.1	1000	1020	44.32%	18.84%	36.83%	+0.12	+34.5	31
1985-09-01	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-3	41.1	1020	1000	36.83%	18.84%	44.32%	-0.12	-34.5	28
1985-09-02	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-2	56.2	647	844	21.90%	18.54%	59.56%	-0.70	+28.7	7
1985-09-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 2-3	56.2	844	647	59.56%	18.54%	21.90%	+0.70	-28.8	17
1985-09-07	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-5	34.1	815	958	27.73%	18.72%	53.55%	-0.45	-49.6	17
1985-09-07	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 5-1	34.1	958	815	53.55%	18.72%	27.73%	+0.45	+49.6	34
1985-09-07	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	29.0	1075	675	78.70%	16.33%	4.97%	+2.07	+3.3	33
1985-09-07	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	29.0	675	1075	4.97%	16.33%	78.70%	-2.07	-3.2	7
1985-09-07	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	43.9	1021	1106	35.20%	18.83%	45.96%	-0.18	-19.2	26
1985-09-07	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	43.9	1106	1021	45.96%	18.83%	35.20%	+0.18	+19.2	35
1985-09-07	Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	50.7	730	1034	13.08%	17.96%	68.97%	-1.19	+8.3	13
1985-09-07	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	50.7	1034	730	68.97%	17.96%	13.08%	+1.19	-8.3	32
1985-09-08	Vidir Gardur	D 1-1	54.8	985	748	70.77%	17.77%	11.46%	+1.32	-7.9	29
1985-09-08	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	54.8	748	985	11.46%	17.77%	70.77%	-1.32	+8.0	13
1985-09-12	KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	33.5	1125	978	63.82%	18.34%	17.84%	+0.90	+11.3	38
1985-09-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	33.5	978	1125	17.84%	18.34%	63.82%	-0.90	-11.3	29
1985-09-14	IA Akranes	L 2-3	49.6	1008	1078	37.24%	18.85%	43.91%	-0.11	-19.0	34
1985-09-14	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	49.6	1078	1008	43.91%	18.85%	37.24%	+0.11	+19.0	36
1985-09-14	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 6-1	27.9	1026	765	72.22%	17.60%	10.19%	+1.42	+24.3	35
1985-09-14	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-6	27.9	765	1026	10.19%	17.60%	72.22%	-1.42	-24.3	17
1985-09-14	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-2	47.9	756	738	49.45%	18.80%	31.76%	+0.30	+16.7	16
1985-09-14	@ Vidir Gardur	L 2-3	47.9	738	756	31.76%	18.80%	49.45%	-0.30	-16.7	13
1985-09-15	Keflavik IF	L 2-3	41.6	672	1002	11.52%	17.78%	70.70%	-1.31	-6.7	7
1985-09-15	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-2	41.6	1002	672	70.70%	17.78%	11.52%	+1.31	+6.7	29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1985-08-17	9.00%	FH Hafnarfjordur	803	3	@ IA Akranes	1088	2
2	1985-06-25	11.79%	Keflavik IF	842	2	@ IA Akranes	1074	1
3	1985-08-10	20.45%	KR Reykjavik	1016	3	@ IA Akranes	1134	1
4	1985-09-02	21.90%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	647	3	FH Hafnarfjordur	844	2
5	1985-06-22	23.76%	FH Hafnarfjordur	808	3	@ Keflavik IF	893	1
6	1985-08-15	23.91%	Keflavik IF	985	2	@ KR Reykjavik	1070	0
7	1985-07-20	24.31%	@ Keflavik IF	885	3	Fram Reykjavik	1058	0
8	1985-06-02	24.50%	Vidir Gardur	769	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	848	0
9	1985-07-20	28.20%	Vidir Gardur	770	3	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	817	2
10	1985-05-14	28.60%	FH Hafnarfjordur	887	1	@ Vidir Gardur	930	0
11	1985-05-19	34.13%	@ Keflavik IF	857	3	Thor Akureyri	950	1
12	1985-09-01	35.23%	IA Akranes	1052	3	@ Keflavik IF	1044	2
13	1985-07-08	35.94%	Valur Reykjavik	973	2	@ KR Reykjavik	959	1
14	1985-07-06	36.71%	@ IA Akranes	1047	6	Fram Reykjavik	1121	2
15	1985-06-14	36.98%	@ Thor Akureyri	910	2	Valur Reykjavik	982	1
16	1985-05-19	38.01%	Fram Reykjavik	958	3	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	930	0
17	1985-05-14	39.72%	@ Thor Akureyri	906	2	IA Akranes	958	0
18	1985-05-23	40.56%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	868	1	FH Hafnarfjordur	914	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1985-05-17	114.89	@ IA Akranes	7	915	48.83%	Vidir Gardur	0	902	32.36%	18.80%
2	1985-07-20	84.46	@ Keflavik IF	3	885	24.31%	Fram Reykjavik	0	1058	57.06%	18.63%
3	1985-07-21	66.33	KR Reykjavik	5	936	41.86%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	1	880	39.29%	18.85%
4	1985-05-19	65.78	Fram Reykjavik	3	958	38.01%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	930	43.14%	18.85%
5	1985-07-06	62.31	@ IA Akranes	6	1047	36.71%	Fram Reykjavik	2	1121	44.45%	18.84%
6	1985-08-15	58.55	Keflavik IF	2	985	23.91%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1070	57.48%	18.62%
7	1985-08-10	53.79	KR Reykjavik	3	1016	20.45%	@ IA Akranes	1	1134	61.08%	18.48%
8	1985-06-22	50.83	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	808	23.76%	@ Keflavik IF	1	893	57.62%	18.61%
9	1985-08-18	49.77	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	1049	50.42%	Thor Akureyri	0	1024	30.79%	18.78%
10	1985-09-07	49.56	Fram Reykjavik	5	958	53.55%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	815	27.73%	18.72%
11	1985-08-15	46.67	@ Vidir Gardur	3	744	52.71%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	701	28.55%	18.74%
12	1985-05-31	46.51	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	936	52.83%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	891	28.43%	18.74%
13	1985-05-14	43.80	@ Thor Akureyri	2	906	39.72%	IA Akranes	0	958	41.42%	18.85%
14	1985-05-19	42.23	@ Keflavik IF	3	857	34.13%	Thor Akureyri	1	950	47.04%	18.82%
15	1985-07-06	40.26	Thor Akureyri	2	926	43.79%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	857	37.37%	18.85%
16	1985-07-24	38.23	Valur Reykjavik	3	1003	58.74%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	814	22.68%	18.57%
17	1985-08-15	37.95	@ Thor Akureyri	2	986	46.39%	Fram Reykjavik	0	991	34.78%	18.83%
18	1985-06-15	37.44	IA Akranes	3	1039	59.30%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	845	22.15%	18.55%
19	1985-08-10	37.15	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	777	47.28%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	776	33.90%	18.82%
20	1985-08-10	36.97	@ Keflavik IF	4	948	65.53%	Vidir Gardur	0	781	16.24%	18.23%
21	1985-06-25	35.84	Keflavik IF	2	842	11.79%	@ IA Akranes	1	1074	70.40%	17.81%
22	1985-08-17	35.58	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	803	9.00%	@ IA Akranes	2	1088	73.60%	17.40%
23	1985-09-01	34.46	@ Thor Akureyri	3	1000	44.32%	KR Reykjavik	1	1020	36.83%	18.84%
24	1985-06-29	33.35	KR Reykjavik	2	926	51.42%	@ Vidir Gardur	0	800	29.81%	18.77%
25	1985-06-21	32.01	Throttur Reykjavik	3	901	47.48%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1	805	33.70%	18.82%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1985-08-17	60.1	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	803	9.00%	@ IA Akranes	2	1088	73.60%	17.40%
2	1985-05-22	60.0	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1024	58.27%	Valur Reykjavik	2	933	23.14%	18.59%
3	1985-07-07	60.0	@ Throttur Reykjavik	2	884	61.00%	Vidir Gardur	2	766	20.52%	18.48%
4	1985-09-02	56.2	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	3	647	21.90%	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	844	59.56%	18.54%
5	1985-09-01	54.8	@ Fram Reykjavik	1	966	71.22%	Throttur Reykjavik	1	722	11.06%	17.72%
6	1985-09-08	54.8	@ KR Reykjavik	1	985	70.77%	Vidir Gardur	1	748	11.46%	17.77%
7	1985-06-21	54.6	@ Thor Akureyri	1	934	63.48%	Vidir Gardur	1	790	18.16%	18.36%
8	1985-08-28	54.6	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	838	20.57%	Keflavik IF	1	1049	60.95%	18.48%
9	1985-05-17	54.5	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	916	46.40%	KR Reykjavik	1	921	34.77%	18.83%
10	1985-05-21	54.5	@ KR Reykjavik	1	922	32.22%	IA Akranes	1	1030	48.98%	18.80%
11	1985-06-01	54.5	@ Keflavik IF	1	917	46.06%	KR Reykjavik	1	924	35.11%	18.83%
12	1985-06-25	54.5	@ Vidir Gardur	1	796	25.12%	Valur Reykjavik	1	962	56.22%	18.66%
13	1985-08-29	54.5	@ KR Reykjavik	1	1023	54.77%	Fram Reykjavik	1	963	26.53%	18.69%
14	1985-07-20	54.3	Vidir Gardur	3	770	28.20%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	817	53.07%	18.73%
15	1985-06-25	54.1	Keflavik IF	2	842	11.79%	@ IA Akranes	1	1074	70.40%	17.81%
16	1985-09-01	52.2	IA Akranes	3	1052	35.23%	@ Keflavik IF	2	1044	45.93%	18.83%
17	1985-05-13	51.7	@ KR Reykjavik	4	904	47.37%	Throttur Reykjavik	3	902	33.81%	18.82%
18	1985-09-07	50.7	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	730	13.08%	Thor Akureyri	0	1034	68.97%	17.96%
19	1985-06-22	50.5	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	959	30.94%	IA Akranes	0	1077	50.27%	18.78%
20	1985-08-11	50.5	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1041	54.00%	Fram Reykjavik	0	987	27.29%	18.71%
21	1985-08-28	50.5	@ IA Akranes	0	1052	40.57%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1099	40.58%	18.85%
22	1985-08-28	50.5	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	727	57.53%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	642	23.86%	18.62%
23	1985-09-14	49.6	IA Akranes	3	1078	43.91%	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1008	37.24%	18.85%
24	1985-06-26	49.5	@ KR Reykjavik	3	907	44.26%	Thor Akureyri	2	928	36.90%	18.84%
25	1985-06-25	48.6	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	4	858	57.63%	Vikingur Reykjavik	3	773	23.76%	18.61%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1985-08-10	26.3	@ Keflavik IF	4	948	65.53%	Vidir Gardur	0	781	16.24%	18.23%
2	1985-08-20	27.2	KR Reykjavik	2	1011	72.39%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	654	10.04%	17.57%
3	1985-07-23	27.5	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	974	71.58%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	724	10.74%	17.68%
4	1985-06-30	27.8	@ Fram Reykjavik	2	1106	70.64%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	871	11.58%	17.79%
5	1985-07-24	27.9	IA Akranes	2	1120	70.33%	@ Vidir Gardur	0	796	11.85%	17.82%
6	1985-09-14	27.9	@ Thor Akureyri	6	1026	72.22%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	765	10.19%	17.60%
7	1985-06-15	28.8	IA Akranes	3	1039	59.30%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	845	22.15%	18.55%
8	1985-07-24	28.9	Valur Reykjavik	3	1003	58.74%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	814	22.68%	18.57%
9	1985-09-07	29.0	@ IA Akranes	1	1075	78.70%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	675	4.97%	16.33%
10	1985-05-31	30.7	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	936	52.83%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	891	28.43%	18.74%
11	1985-08-15	30.7	@ Vidir Gardur	3	744	52.71%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	701	28.55%	18.74%
12	1985-07-20	30.9	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	997	72.56%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	730	9.89%	17.55%
13	1985-08-14	31.2	IA Akranes	1	1081	71.50%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	738	10.82%	17.69%
14	1985-08-28	31.2	Thor Akureyri	2	974	59.12%	@ Vidir Gardur	0	781	22.32%	18.56%
15	1985-08-18	31.4	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	1049	50.42%	Thor Akureyri	0	1024	30.79%	18.78%
16	1985-08-31	31.4	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	1099	76.47%	Vidir Gardur	1	755	6.65%	16.88%
17	1985-06-25	32.9	Fram Reykjavik	2	1075	53.38%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	933	27.90%	18.73%
18	1985-06-29	33.5	KR Reykjavik	2	926	51.42%	@ Vidir Gardur	0	800	29.81%	18.77%
19	1985-09-12	33.5	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1125	63.82%	KR Reykjavik	0	978	17.84%	18.34%
20	1985-05-17	33.7	@ IA Akranes	7	915	48.83%	Vidir Gardur	0	902	32.36%	18.80%
21	1985-06-20	33.7	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	1044	59.80%	KR Reykjavik	1	938	21.66%	18.53%
22	1985-07-25	33.7	@ KR Reykjavik	3	1002	68.98%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	791	13.07%	17.96%
23	1985-05-31	33.8	@ IA Akranes	1	1028	62.87%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	890	18.74%	18.39%
24	1985-09-07	34.1	Fram Reykjavik	5	958	53.55%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	815	27.73%	18.72%
25	1985-08-10	34.8	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	777	47.28%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	776	33.90%	18.82%