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1984 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

38 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 1983.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

16 pts

Breidablik · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

8.76 points above expected

38 points · 29.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

9.52 points below expected

16 points · 25.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 12 2 4 38 33 18 +15 29.24 +8.76
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 7 4 28 24 16 +8 23.66 +4.34
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 3 7 27 19 22 -3 24.46 +2.54
4 KR Reykjavik 18 6 7 5 25 20 23 -3 20.77 +4.23
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 6 6 6 24 29 28 +1 24.06 -0.06
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 22 23 22 +1 25.56 -3.56
7 Thor Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 25 25 0 21.05 +0.95
8 Throttur Reykjavik 18 5 7 6 22 19 19 0 23.98 -1.98
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 8 6 20 17 20 -3 24.11 -4.11
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 23 39 -16 25.52 -9.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 38 29.24 +8.76
2 Valur Reykjavik 28 23.66 +4.34
3 KR Reykjavik 25 20.77 +4.23
4 Keflavik IF 27 24.46 +2.54
5 Thor Akureyri 22 21.05 +0.95

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 16 25.52 -9.52
2 Breidablik 20 24.11 -4.11
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 25.56 -3.56
4 Throttur Reykjavik 22 23.98 -1.98
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 24 24.06 -0.06

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 9 Jun 6 – Jul 21 1 in 2,185
2 Keflavik IF 4 May 26 – Jun 12 1 in 96
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 21 – Jul 28 1 in 52
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 20 1 in 34
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Aug 14 – Sep 1 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Aug 19 – Sep 15 1 in 120
2 KA Akureyri 4 Jul 22 – Aug 18 1 in 58
3 IA Akranes 2 Jul 28 – Aug 14 1 in 20
4 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 8 – Jun 16 1 in 17
5 Thor Akureyri 3 May 27 – Jun 7 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 10 Jun 2 – Jul 21 1 in 27
2 Keflavik IF 7 May 18 – Jun 15 1 in 25
3 Valur Reykjavik 6 Jul 27 – Sep 16 1 in 12
4 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 27 – Sep 8 1 in 10
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jul 21 – Aug 16 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 22 – Sep 15 1 in 15
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 14 1 in 14
3 Breidablik 6 Jun 30 – Aug 16 1 in 13
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 May 17 – Jun 13 1 in 8
5 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 11 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1056 38 -2 7 8.8 -1.8
Valur Reykjavik 1000 28 +30 11 7.1 +3.9
Keflavik IF 906 27 -66 3 7.5 -4.5
KR Reykjavik 944 25 +46 10 5.8 +4.2
Vikingur Reykjavik 953 24 -11 5 7.0 -2.0
Fram Reykjavik 990 22 +28 10 6.8 +3.2
Thor Akureyri 946 22 +42 10 6.5 +3.5
Throttur Reykjavik 938 22 -6 5 6.1 -1.1
Breidablik 938 20 +1 7 6.0 +1.0
KA Akureyri 868 16 -63 1 5.8 -4.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA KA KR KI TA TR VR VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.06
2-0-0
2.64
0-2-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
2.93
0-2-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.58
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.00
 —
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
2.93
0-0-2
3.27
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
3.24
0-1-1
3.03
0-2-0
2.75
1-0-1
2.88
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
2.77
 —
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
3.42
1-0-1
3.23
0-1-1
3.23
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.77
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-2
2.38
 —
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
3.09
1-1-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.93
0-1-1
3.07
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.45
2-0-0
2.14
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.39
 —
2-0-0
2.18
0-0-2
2.76
1-1-0
2.56
0-2-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.66
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
3.22
 —
0-1-1
3.01
2-0-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.84
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.95
1-1-0
2.31
2-0-0
2.64
1-1-0
2.38
 —
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
2.69
Throttur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.00
0-1-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.68
2-0-0
2.78
 —
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.62
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
2.72
 —
1-0-1
2.81
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
2.32
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.36 +7.2
Allowed 0.37 -5.5
Differential 0.76 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%10.00%4.44%4.44%0.56%—30.56%
110.00%10.00%7.78%2.22%0.56%—30.56%
24.44%7.78%5.56%3.33%1.11%1.11%23.33%
34.44%2.22%3.33%2.22%——12.22%
40.56%0.56%1.11%———2.22%
5+——1.11%———1.11%
Total30.56%30.56%23.33%12.22%2.22%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.55
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
116.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.11 -0.17
SD 0.87 1.08 1.10
CV 0.92 0.97 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
116.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%—5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.07 1.11 1.59
CV 0.84 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.00 +0.83
SD 0.86 1.24 1.42
CV 0.47 1.24 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%—5.56%—33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%38.89%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.17 -0.89
SD 1.23 1.42 1.81
CV 0.96 0.66 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%—11.11%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.28 -0.17
SD 1.13 1.49 1.65
CV 1.02 1.16 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
2—22.22%——5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.22 -0.17
SD 0.94 1.17 1.47
CV 0.89 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—11.11%——38.89%
1—11.11%————11.11%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%50.00%11.11%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.04 1.75
CV 1.02 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 1.06 1.00 1.14
CV 1.00 0.95 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%————33.33%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.89 +0.44
SD 1.37 0.68 1.25
CV 1.03 0.76 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.58 1.10 1.92
CV 0.98 0.70 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1056 38 29.24 +8.76 95.0% 15 20 26 29 33 38 41
Valur Reykjavik 1000 28 23.66 +4.34 81.0% 12 14 19 23 27 33 38
Fram Reykjavik 990 22 25.56 -3.56 31.0% 14 17 22 26 28 33 39
Vikingur Reykjavik 953 24 24.06 -0.06 54.0% 13 14 20 24 28 32 39
Thor Akureyri 946 22 21.05 +0.95 59.0% 9 12 18 21 24 30 37
KR Reykjavik 944 25 20.77 +4.23 86.0% 10 13 17 21 24 29 32
Breidablik 938 20 24.11 -4.11 25.0% 15 17 20 24 28 32 34
Throttur Reykjavik 938 22 23.98 -1.98 45.0% 11 14 20 23 28 33 39
Keflavik IF 906 27 24.46 +2.54 69.0% 11 14 20 24 28 34 36
KA Akureyri 868 16 25.52 -9.52 4.0% 12 17 22 26 29 34 38

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Slight Edge
38.89%28.89%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
466 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.9
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
39%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.56/gm
Runaway
00.180.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.22 * Some Luck: 4.22 to 6.33 * Lucky: 6.33 to 8.44 * Wild Swing: 8.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.04 * Close: 2.04 to 3.06 * Off: 3.06 to 4.08 * Way Off: 4.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.26 * A Surprise: 1.26 to 2.02 * Several Surprises: 2.02 to 2.77 * Many Surprises: 2.77 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.95 points
Some Luck
05.2713
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.20
Off
02.556
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 51.77
1.08
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Even
50%73%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.17
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.92
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.20
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.05
Overconfident
01.002.22949
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.081
Well Within Noise
00.1700.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes39.00%18.00%9.00%13.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%
Valur Reykjavik8.00%9.00%12.00%8.00%9.00%14.00%10.00%11.00%9.00%10.00%
Keflavik IF13.00%7.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%12.00%9.00%9.00%
KR Reykjavik2.00%3.00%5.00%4.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%19.00%19.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik5.00%13.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%9.00%14.00%13.00%6.00%11.00%
Fram Reykjavik10.00%15.00%15.00%11.00%13.00%7.00%12.00%6.00%8.00%3.00%
Thor Akureyri3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%13.00%12.00%13.00%23.00%
Throttur Reykjavik8.00%10.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%12.00%11.00%
Breidablik3.00%8.00%15.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%7.00%9.00%13.00%7.00%
KA Akureyri9.00%13.00%9.00%17.00%6.00%13.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 97.00% 3.00%
Fram Reykjavik 89.00% 11.00%
KA Akureyri 85.00% 15.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 83.00% 17.00%
Keflavik IF 82.00% 18.00%
Valur Reykjavik 81.00% 19.00%
Breidablik 80.00% 20.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Thor Akureyri 64.00% 36.00%
KR Reykjavik 62.00% 38.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1984-05-17 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.9 945 938 39.51% 30.47% 30.02%+0.06 -0.5 1
1984-05-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.9 938 945 30.02% 30.47% 39.51%-0.06 +0.5 1
1984-05-18 Fram Reykjavik W 1-041.5 972 998 34.86% 30.64% 34.50%-0.01 +9.1 3
1984-05-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-141.5 998 972 34.50% 30.64% 34.86%+0.01 -9.1 0
1984-05-18 Keflavik IF D 0-047.2 937 937 38.61% 30.53% 30.87%+0.05 -0.4 1
1984-05-18 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.2 937 937 30.87% 30.53% 38.61%-0.05 +0.4 1
1984-05-20 Thor Akureyri L 1-250.3 996 933 47.07% 29.45% 23.48%+0.19 -10.8 0
1984-05-20 @ KA Akureyri W 2-150.3 933 996 23.48% 29.45% 47.07%-0.19 +10.8 3
1984-05-20 Breidablik D 0-047.2 931 952 35.65% 30.63% 33.71%+0.01 -0.1 1
1984-05-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-047.2 952 931 33.71% 30.63% 35.65%-0.01 +0.1 1
1984-05-23 KA Akureyri D 1-151.8 937 985 31.81% 30.58% 37.62%-0.05 +0.3 2
1984-05-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-151.8 985 937 37.62% 30.58% 31.81%+0.05 -0.3 1
1984-05-23 Breidablik D 1-151.8 939 952 36.71% 30.61% 32.68%+0.02 -0.2 2
1984-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.8 952 939 32.68% 30.61% 36.71%-0.02 +0.2 2
1984-05-26 Keflavik IF L 1-249.7 981 937 44.52% 29.90% 25.58%+0.14 -10.4 3
1984-05-26 @ IA Akranes W 2-149.7 937 981 25.58% 29.90% 44.52%-0.14 +10.4 5
1984-05-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-361.1 985 945 44.04% 29.97% 25.99%+0.14 -0.6 2
1984-05-26 @ KA Akureyri D 3-361.1 945 985 25.99% 29.97% 44.04%-0.14 +0.6 2
1984-05-26 KR Reykjavik D 0-047.2 936 939 38.24% 30.55% 31.21%+0.04 -0.4 2
1984-05-26 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.2 939 936 31.21% 30.55% 38.24%-0.04 +0.4 3
1984-05-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.1 952 989 33.39% 30.63% 35.98%-0.03 -8.9 2
1984-05-27 @ Breidablik W 1-041.1 989 952 35.98% 30.63% 33.39%+0.03 +8.9 3
1984-05-27 Thor Akureyri W 3-034.4 931 943 36.87% 30.61% 32.52%+0.02 +23.9 4
1984-05-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-334.4 943 931 32.52% 30.61% 36.87%-0.02 -23.9 3
1984-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 3-253.0 939 998 30.40% 30.50% 39.10%-0.08 +8.9 6
1984-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-353.0 998 939 39.10% 30.50% 30.40%+0.08 -8.9 3
1984-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-257.4 989 955 43.17% 30.09% 26.73%+0.12 -0.6 4
1984-06-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-257.4 955 989 26.73% 30.09% 43.17%-0.12 +0.6 5
1984-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-040.7 948 956 37.41% 30.59% 32.00%+0.03 +8.6 8
1984-06-02 @ Keflavik IF L 0-140.7 956 948 32.00% 30.59% 37.41%-0.03 -8.6 5
1984-06-02 Breidablik L 0-141.7 919 943 35.17% 30.64% 34.19%+0.00 -9.2 3
1984-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-041.7 943 919 34.19% 30.64% 35.17%+0.00 +9.2 5
1984-06-02 IA Akranes D 2-257.3 945 970 34.99% 30.64% 34.37%+0.00 -0.0 3
1984-06-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-257.3 970 945 34.37% 30.64% 34.99%+0.00 +0.0 4
1984-06-03 KA Akureyri L 1-246.0 936 984 31.79% 30.58% 37.64%-0.05 -8.1 2
1984-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-146.0 984 936 37.64% 30.58% 31.79%+0.05 +8.1 5
1984-06-06 Valur Reykjavik W 1-038.6 970 928 44.39% 29.92% 25.69%+0.14 +7.3 7
1984-06-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-138.6 928 970 25.69% 29.92% 44.39%-0.14 -7.3 2
1984-06-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-040.3 947 945 38.85% 30.51% 30.64%+0.05 +8.4 8
1984-06-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-140.3 945 947 30.64% 30.51% 38.85%-0.05 -8.4 3
1984-06-07 Thor Akureyri W 1-037.2 988 910 48.93% 29.04% 22.03%+0.22 +6.5 7
1984-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.2 910 988 22.03% 29.04% 48.93%-0.22 -6.4 3
1984-06-08 Keflavik IF L 0-142.5 953 956 38.06% 30.56% 31.38%+0.04 -9.8 5
1984-06-08 @ Breidablik W 1-042.5 956 953 31.38% 30.56% 38.06%-0.04 +9.8 11
1984-06-08 KR Reykjavik W 2-034.2 992 948 44.60% 29.89% 25.52%+0.14 +13.7 8
1984-06-08 @ KA Akureyri L 0-234.2 948 992 25.52% 29.89% 44.60%-0.14 -13.7 6
1984-06-11 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-151.8 921 956 33.59% 30.63% 35.78%-0.03 +0.1 3
1984-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.8 956 921 35.78% 30.63% 33.59%+0.03 -0.1 9
1984-06-12 Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.0 966 995 34.51% 30.64% 34.85%-0.01 +8.6 14
1984-06-12 @ Keflavik IF L 1-247.0 995 966 34.85% 30.64% 34.51%+0.01 -8.6 7
1984-06-12 Thor Akureyri L 2-544.7 934 904 42.78% 30.14% 27.08%+0.12 -21.3 6
1984-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 5-244.7 904 934 27.08% 30.14% 42.78%-0.12 +21.3 6
1984-06-13 IA Akranes L 0-239.4 1006 978 42.45% 30.18% 27.37%+0.11 -20.0 8
1984-06-13 @ KA Akureyri W 2-039.4 978 1006 27.37% 30.18% 42.45%-0.11 +20.0 10
1984-06-13 Breidablik D 2-257.3 937 943 37.73% 30.57% 31.70%+0.04 -0.2 4
1984-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-257.3 943 937 31.70% 30.57% 37.73%-0.04 +0.2 6
1984-06-15 Keflavik IF D 0-047.2 925 975 31.58% 30.57% 37.85%-0.06 +0.3 7
1984-06-15 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-047.2 975 925 37.85% 30.57% 31.58%+0.06 -0.3 15
1984-06-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.9 943 921 41.67% 30.27% 28.05%+0.10 -9.8 6
1984-06-16 @ Breidablik W 2-148.9 921 943 28.05% 30.27% 41.67%-0.10 +9.9 6
1984-06-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-249.8 986 937 45.27% 29.78% 24.96%+0.16 -10.5 7
1984-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-149.8 937 986 24.96% 29.78% 45.27%-0.16 +10.5 7
1984-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 2-032.6 998 913 49.79% 28.83% 21.38%+0.23 +11.9 13
1984-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-232.6 913 998 21.38% 28.83% 49.79%-0.23 -11.9 6
1984-06-18 KA Akureyri L 2-351.6 955 986 34.23% 30.64% 35.13%-0.02 -8.1 9
1984-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-251.6 986 955 35.13% 30.64% 34.23%+0.02 +8.1 11
1984-06-22 Breidablik L 0-144.8 994 933 46.77% 29.51% 23.73%+0.18 -11.4 11
1984-06-22 @ KA Akureyri W 1-044.8 933 994 23.73% 29.51% 46.77%-0.18 +11.4 9
1984-06-23 Thor Akureyri W 3-247.2 1010 925 49.72% 28.85% 21.43%+0.23 +5.6 16
1984-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 2-347.2 925 1010 21.43% 28.85% 49.72%-0.23 -5.6 7
1984-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-033.3 1015 947 47.67% 29.32% 23.01%+0.20 +12.6 19
1984-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-233.3 947 1015 23.01% 29.32% 47.67%-0.20 -12.6 9
1984-06-23 Thor Akureyri L 0-239.3 947 920 42.35% 30.20% 27.45%+0.11 -19.9 7
1984-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-039.3 920 947 27.45% 30.20% 42.35%-0.11 +19.9 10
1984-06-24 Keflavik IF W 1-043.4 901 974 28.54% 30.33% 41.13%-0.11 +10.3 9
1984-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-143.4 974 901 41.13% 30.33% 28.54%+0.11 -10.4 15
1984-06-25 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.8 931 975 32.22% 30.59% 37.19%-0.05 +0.2 7
1984-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.8 975 931 37.19% 30.59% 32.22%+0.05 -0.2 8
1984-06-28 KR Reykjavik D 0-047.3 935 911 41.79% 30.26% 27.95%+0.10 -0.8 10
1984-06-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-047.3 911 935 27.95% 30.26% 41.79%-0.10 +0.8 10
1984-06-29 Valur Reykjavik L 2-353.2 940 931 39.82% 30.44% 29.74%+0.07 -9.0 10
1984-06-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-253.2 931 940 29.74% 30.44% 39.82%-0.07 +9.0 10
1984-06-30 IA Akranes L 1-244.6 945 1028 27.32% 30.18% 42.50%-0.13 -7.2 9
1984-06-30 @ Breidablik W 2-144.6 1028 945 42.50% 30.18% 27.32%+0.13 +7.2 22
1984-07-01 KA Akureyri W 2-036.3 975 983 37.52% 30.58% 31.90%+0.03 +16.3 11
1984-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-236.3 983 975 31.90% 30.58% 37.52%-0.03 -16.2 11
1984-07-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-139.9 964 927 43.61% 30.03% 26.35%+0.13 +12.2 18
1984-07-01 @ Keflavik IF L 1-339.9 927 964 26.35% 30.03% 43.61%-0.13 -12.2 7
1984-07-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-047.2 937 934 39.05% 30.50% 30.45%+0.06 -0.5 10
1984-07-07 @ Breidablik D 0-047.2 934 937 30.45% 30.50% 39.05%-0.06 +0.5 11
1984-07-07 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-336.1 912 915 38.18% 30.55% 31.27%+0.04 -26.8 10
1984-07-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-036.1 915 912 31.27% 30.55% 38.18%-0.04 +26.8 10
1984-07-08 IA Akranes L 0-140.8 991 1035 32.39% 30.60% 37.01%-0.04 -8.7 11
1984-07-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.8 1035 991 37.01% 30.60% 32.39%+0.04 +8.7 25
1984-07-08 Valur Reykjavik W 1-038.9 976 940 43.56% 30.04% 26.40%+0.13 +7.5 21
1984-07-08 @ Keflavik IF L 0-138.9 940 976 26.40% 30.04% 43.56%-0.13 -7.5 10
1984-07-08 KA Akureyri D 1-151.8 931 966 33.49% 30.63% 35.88%-0.03 +0.1 11
1984-07-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-151.8 966 931 35.88% 30.63% 33.49%+0.03 -0.1 12
1984-07-11 KR Reykjavik D 3-361.2 937 885 45.56% 29.73% 24.72%+0.16 -0.6 11
1984-07-11 @ Breidablik D 3-361.2 885 937 24.72% 29.73% 45.56%-0.16 +0.7 11
1984-07-11 Keflavik IF W 4-245.9 966 984 36.11% 30.63% 33.26%+0.01 +13.0 15
1984-07-11 @ KA Akureyri L 2-445.9 984 966 33.26% 30.63% 36.11%-0.01 -13.0 21
1984-07-13 IA Akranes L 0-331.6 931 1044 23.99% 29.57% 46.45%-0.19 -19.0 11
1984-07-13 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-031.6 1044 931 46.45% 29.57% 23.99%+0.19 +19.0 28
1984-07-14 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-034.3 932 942 37.23% 30.59% 32.18%+0.03 +23.8 13
1984-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-334.3 942 932 32.18% 30.59% 37.23%-0.03 -23.8 10
1984-07-15 Fram Reykjavik W 3-252.6 934 983 31.76% 30.58% 37.66%-0.05 +8.7 14
1984-07-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-352.6 983 934 37.66% 30.58% 31.76%+0.05 -8.7 11
1984-07-21 IA Akranes L 1-244.2 971 1063 26.28% 30.02% 43.69%-0.15 -7.0 21
1984-07-21 @ Keflavik IF W 2-144.2 1063 971 43.69% 30.02% 26.28%+0.15 +7.0 31
1984-07-21 Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.3 886 956 28.94% 30.37% 40.69%-0.10 +0.6 12
1984-07-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-047.3 956 886 40.69% 30.37% 28.94%+0.10 -0.6 14
1984-07-21 Valur Reykjavik W 1-041.9 918 955 33.27% 30.63% 36.11%-0.03 +9.4 13
1984-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-141.9 955 918 36.11% 30.63% 33.27%+0.03 -9.4 14
1984-07-22 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-141.3 912 943 34.11% 30.64% 35.25%-0.02 -9.0 11
1984-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-041.3 943 912 35.25% 30.64% 34.11%+0.02 +9.0 17
1984-07-22 KA Akureyri W 6-241.5 927 979 31.29% 30.55% 38.16%-0.06 +24.8 16
1984-07-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-641.5 979 927 38.16% 30.55% 31.29%+0.06 -24.8 15
1984-07-23 Breidablik D 0-047.4 974 936 43.75% 30.01% 26.24%+0.13 -1.0 12
1984-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.4 936 974 26.24% 30.01% 43.75%-0.13 +1.0 12
1984-07-26 Keflavik IF L 1-247.6 952 964 36.95% 30.60% 32.45%+0.03 -9.0 17
1984-07-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-147.6 964 952 32.45% 30.60% 36.95%-0.03 +9.0 24
1984-07-27 Thor Akureyri D 2-257.4 937 903 43.31% 30.08% 26.61%+0.12 -0.6 13
1984-07-27 @ Breidablik D 2-257.4 903 937 26.61% 30.08% 43.31%-0.12 +0.6 12
1984-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 1-441.3 955 946 39.76% 30.45% 29.79%+0.07 -23.3 15
1984-07-27 @ KA Akureyri W 4-141.3 946 955 29.79% 30.45% 39.76%-0.07 +23.3 17
1984-07-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-251.0 973 887 49.98% 28.79% 21.24%+0.24 -11.3 12
1984-07-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-151.0 887 973 21.24% 28.79% 49.98%-0.24 +11.3 15
1984-07-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-356.5 1070 952 53.73% 27.70% 18.57%+0.30 -11.4 31
1984-07-28 @ IA Akranes W 3-256.5 952 1070 18.57% 27.70% 53.73%-0.30 +11.4 19
1984-08-14 Fram Reykjavik W 3-036.4 903 962 30.42% 30.50% 39.08%-0.08 +27.3 15
1984-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-336.4 962 903 39.08% 30.50% 30.42%+0.08 -27.3 12
1984-08-14 IA Akranes W 4-248.7 969 1058 26.62% 30.08% 43.30%-0.14 +15.7 20
1984-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-448.7 1058 969 43.30% 30.08% 26.62%+0.14 -15.7 31
1984-08-15 KA Akureyri W 2-037.4 898 931 33.85% 30.64% 35.51%-0.02 +17.5 18
1984-08-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-237.4 931 898 35.51% 30.64% 33.85%+0.02 -17.5 15
1984-08-16 Breidablik W 2-144.3 973 937 43.52% 30.05% 26.44%+0.13 +7.1 27
1984-08-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-244.3 937 973 26.44% 30.05% 43.52%-0.13 -7.1 13
1984-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-047.3 964 943 41.41% 30.30% 28.29%+0.09 -0.7 20
1984-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-047.3 943 964 28.29% 30.30% 41.41%-0.09 +0.7 18
1984-08-18 KA Akureyri W 3-136.5 1043 914 55.05% 27.25% 17.69%+0.33 +8.6 34
1984-08-18 @ IA Akranes L 1-336.5 914 1043 17.69% 27.25% 55.05%-0.33 -8.6 15
1984-08-19 Keflavik IF W 1-042.3 934 980 32.17% 30.59% 37.23%-0.05 +9.6 15
1984-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-142.3 980 934 37.23% 30.59% 32.17%+0.05 -9.6 27
1984-08-20 KR Reykjavik W 3-140.8 931 916 40.66% 30.37% 28.96%+0.08 +13.1 18
1984-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-340.8 916 931 28.96% 30.37% 40.66%-0.08 -13.1 18
1984-08-20 Valur Reykjavik L 1-246.3 944 985 32.74% 30.61% 36.65%-0.04 -8.3 18
1984-08-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-146.3 985 944 36.65% 30.61% 32.74%+0.04 +8.3 23
1984-08-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-037.4 930 963 33.83% 30.64% 35.53%-0.02 +17.5 16
1984-08-21 @ Breidablik L 0-237.4 963 930 35.53% 30.64% 33.83%+0.02 -17.5 20
1984-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-257.3 905 936 34.23% 30.64% 35.13%-0.02 +0.0 16
1984-08-31 @ KA Akureyri D 2-257.3 936 905 35.13% 30.64% 34.23%+0.02 -0.0 19
1984-09-01 Thor Akureyri L 1-249.1 970 944 42.22% 30.21% 27.57%+0.11 -9.9 27
1984-09-01 @ Keflavik IF W 2-149.1 944 970 27.57% 30.21% 42.22%-0.11 +9.9 21
1984-09-01 IA Akranes D 0-047.8 902 1051 20.53% 28.53% 50.93%-0.27 +1.8 19
1984-09-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-047.8 1051 902 50.93% 28.53% 20.53%+0.27 -1.8 35
1984-09-02 Breidablik D 1-152.0 993 947 44.86% 29.85% 25.30%+0.15 -1.0 24
1984-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.0 947 993 25.30% 29.85% 44.86%-0.15 +1.0 17
1984-09-03 Fram Reykjavik L 1-343.8 945 944 38.75% 30.52% 30.73%+0.05 -16.2 20
1984-09-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-143.8 944 945 30.73% 30.52% 38.75%-0.05 +16.2 18
1984-09-06 Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.8 960 992 34.01% 30.64% 35.35%-0.02 +0.1 19
1984-09-06 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.8 992 960 35.35% 30.64% 34.01%+0.02 -0.1 25
1984-09-07 KA Akureyri W 1-038.6 948 905 44.44% 29.91% 25.65%+0.14 +7.3 20
1984-09-07 @ Breidablik L 0-138.6 905 948 25.65% 29.91% 44.44%-0.14 -7.3 16
1984-09-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-338.2 960 904 46.13% 29.63% 24.24%+0.17 -30.9 27
1984-09-08 @ Keflavik IF W 3-038.2 904 960 24.24% 29.63% 46.13%-0.17 +30.9 22
1984-09-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.9 954 929 41.95% 30.24% 27.80%+0.10 -0.7 22
1984-09-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-151.9 929 954 27.80% 30.24% 41.95%-0.10 +0.7 21
1984-09-08 IA Akranes W 2-150.2 936 1050 23.89% 29.54% 46.57%-0.20 +10.7 22
1984-09-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-250.2 1050 936 46.57% 29.54% 23.89%+0.20 -10.7 35
1984-09-14 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-040.8 935 946 37.01% 30.60% 32.39%+0.03 +8.7 25
1984-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.8 946 935 32.39% 30.60% 37.01%-0.03 -8.7 22
1984-09-15 Breidablik W 3-030.6 1039 955 49.62% 28.87% 21.50%+0.23 +17.3 38
1984-09-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-330.6 955 1039 21.50% 28.87% 49.62%-0.23 -17.3 20
1984-09-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-433.7 898 960 29.89% 30.46% 39.66%-0.08 -29.4 16
1984-09-15 @ KA Akureyri W 4-033.7 960 898 39.66% 30.46% 29.89%+0.08 +29.4 22
1984-09-15 Keflavik IF W 3-033.9 930 929 38.66% 30.52% 30.81%+0.05 +23.0 24
1984-09-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-333.9 929 930 30.81% 30.52% 38.66%-0.05 -23.0 27
1984-09-16 Thor Akureyri W 1-038.7 992 953 43.94% 29.99% 26.07%+0.13 +7.4 28
1984-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-138.7 953 992 26.07% 29.99% 43.94%-0.13 -7.4 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1984-07-28 18.57% Vikingur Reykjavik 952 3 @ IA Akranes 1070 2
2 1984-07-28 21.24% KR Reykjavik 887 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 973 1
3 1984-05-20 23.48% Thor Akureyri 933 2 @ KA Akureyri 996 1
4 1984-06-22 23.73% Breidablik 933 1 @ KA Akureyri 994 0
5 1984-09-08 23.89% @ Throttur Reykjavik 936 2 IA Akranes 1050 1
6 1984-09-08 24.24% KR Reykjavik 904 3 @ Keflavik IF 960 0
7 1984-06-16 24.96% Vikingur Reykjavik 937 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 986 1
8 1984-05-26 25.58% Keflavik IF 937 2 @ IA Akranes 981 1
9 1984-08-14 26.62% @ Valur Reykjavik 969 4 IA Akranes 1058 2
10 1984-06-12 27.08% Thor Akureyri 904 5 @ KR Reykjavik 934 2
11 1984-06-13 27.37% IA Akranes 978 2 @ KA Akureyri 1006 0
12 1984-06-23 27.45% Thor Akureyri 920 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 947 0
13 1984-09-01 27.57% Thor Akureyri 944 2 @ Keflavik IF 970 1
14 1984-06-16 28.05% Valur Reykjavik 921 2 @ Breidablik 943 1
15 1984-06-24 28.54% @ KR Reykjavik 901 1 Keflavik IF 974 0
16 1984-06-29 29.74% Valur Reykjavik 931 3 @ Thor Akureyri 940 2
17 1984-07-27 29.79% Valur Reykjavik 946 4 @ KA Akureyri 955 1
18 1984-05-31 30.40% @ KR Reykjavik 939 3 Fram Reykjavik 998 2
19 1984-08-14 30.42% @ Thor Akureyri 903 3 Fram Reykjavik 962 0
20 1984-09-03 30.73% Fram Reykjavik 944 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 945 1
21 1984-07-07 31.27% Vikingur Reykjavik 915 3 @ KR Reykjavik 912 0
22 1984-07-22 31.29% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 927 6 KA Akureyri 979 2
23 1984-06-08 31.38% Keflavik IF 956 1 @ Breidablik 953 0
24 1984-07-15 31.76% @ Throttur Reykjavik 934 3 Fram Reykjavik 983 2
25 1984-08-19 32.17% @ Fram Reykjavik 934 1 Keflavik IF 980 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1984-09-08 30.93 KR Reykjavik 3 904 24.24% @ Keflavik IF 0 960 46.13% 29.63%
2 1984-09-15 29.42 Fram Reykjavik 4 960 39.66% @ KA Akureyri 0 898 29.89% 30.46%
3 1984-08-14 27.27 @ Thor Akureyri 3 903 30.42% Fram Reykjavik 0 962 39.08% 30.50%
4 1984-07-07 26.81 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 915 31.27% @ KR Reykjavik 0 912 38.18% 30.55%
5 1984-07-22 24.76 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 927 31.29% KA Akureyri 2 979 38.16% 30.55%
6 1984-05-27 23.94 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 931 36.87% Thor Akureyri 0 943 32.52% 30.61%
7 1984-07-14 23.76 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 932 37.23% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 942 32.18% 30.59%
8 1984-07-27 23.29 Valur Reykjavik 4 946 29.79% @ KA Akureyri 1 955 39.76% 30.45%
9 1984-09-15 23.02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 930 38.66% Keflavik IF 0 929 30.81% 30.52%
10 1984-06-12 21.31 Thor Akureyri 5 904 27.08% @ KR Reykjavik 2 934 42.78% 30.14%
11 1984-06-13 19.97 IA Akranes 2 978 27.37% @ KA Akureyri 0 1006 42.45% 30.18%
12 1984-06-23 19.94 Thor Akureyri 2 920 27.45% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 947 42.35% 30.20%
13 1984-07-13 18.99 IA Akranes 3 1044 46.45% @ Thor Akureyri 0 931 23.99% 29.57%
14 1984-08-21 17.54 @ Breidablik 2 930 33.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 963 35.53% 30.64%
15 1984-08-15 17.53 @ KR Reykjavik 2 898 33.85% KA Akureyri 0 931 35.51% 30.64%
16 1984-09-15 17.31 @ IA Akranes 3 1039 49.62% Breidablik 0 955 21.50% 28.87%
17 1984-07-01 16.26 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 975 37.52% KA Akureyri 0 983 31.90% 30.58%
18 1984-09-03 16.16 Fram Reykjavik 3 944 30.73% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 945 38.75% 30.52%
19 1984-08-14 15.71 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 969 26.62% IA Akranes 2 1058 43.30% 30.08%
20 1984-06-08 13.74 @ KA Akureyri 2 992 44.60% KR Reykjavik 0 948 25.52% 29.89%
21 1984-08-20 13.12 @ Thor Akureyri 3 931 40.66% KR Reykjavik 1 916 28.96% 30.37%
22 1984-07-11 12.97 @ KA Akureyri 4 966 36.11% Keflavik IF 2 984 33.26% 30.63%
23 1984-06-23 12.62 @ IA Akranes 2 1015 47.67% Throttur Reykjavik 0 947 23.01% 29.32%
24 1984-07-01 12.21 @ Keflavik IF 3 964 43.61% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 927 26.35% 30.03%
25 1984-06-16 11.86 @ IA Akranes 2 998 49.79% KR Reykjavik 0 913 21.38% 28.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1984-07-11 61.2 @ Breidablik 3 937 45.56% KR Reykjavik 3 885 24.72% 29.73%
2 1984-05-26 61.1 @ KA Akureyri 3 985 44.04% Vikingur Reykjavik 3 945 25.99% 29.97%
3 1984-06-02 57.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 989 43.17% Throttur Reykjavik 2 955 26.73% 30.09%
4 1984-07-27 57.4 @ Breidablik 2 937 43.31% Thor Akureyri 2 903 26.61% 30.08%
5 1984-06-02 57.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 945 34.99% IA Akranes 2 970 34.37% 30.64%
6 1984-06-13 57.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 937 37.73% Breidablik 2 943 31.70% 30.57%
7 1984-08-31 57.3 @ KA Akureyri 2 905 34.23% Throttur Reykjavik 2 936 35.13% 30.64%
8 1984-07-28 56.5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 952 18.57% @ IA Akranes 2 1070 53.73% 27.70%
9 1984-06-29 53.2 Valur Reykjavik 3 931 29.74% @ Thor Akureyri 2 940 39.82% 30.44%
10 1984-05-31 53.0 @ KR Reykjavik 3 939 30.40% Fram Reykjavik 2 998 39.10% 30.50%
11 1984-07-15 52.6 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 934 31.76% Fram Reykjavik 2 983 37.66% 30.58%
12 1984-09-02 52.0 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 993 44.86% Breidablik 1 947 25.30% 29.85%
13 1984-05-17 51.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 945 39.51% KR Reykjavik 1 938 30.02% 30.47%
14 1984-09-08 51.9 @ Thor Akureyri 1 954 41.95% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 929 27.80% 30.24%
15 1984-05-23 51.8 @ Keflavik IF 1 937 31.81% KA Akureyri 1 985 37.62% 30.58%
16 1984-05-23 51.8 @ KR Reykjavik 1 939 36.71% Breidablik 1 952 32.68% 30.61%
17 1984-06-11 51.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 921 33.59% Throttur Reykjavik 1 956 35.78% 30.63%
18 1984-06-25 51.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 931 32.22% Fram Reykjavik 1 975 37.19% 30.59%
19 1984-07-08 51.8 @ Thor Akureyri 1 931 33.49% KA Akureyri 1 966 35.88% 30.63%
20 1984-09-06 51.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 960 34.01% Valur Reykjavik 1 992 35.35% 30.64%
21 1984-06-18 51.6 KA Akureyri 3 986 35.13% @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 955 34.23% 30.64%
22 1984-07-28 51.0 KR Reykjavik 2 887 21.24% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 973 49.98% 28.79%
23 1984-05-20 50.3 Thor Akureyri 2 933 23.48% @ KA Akureyri 1 996 47.07% 29.45%
24 1984-09-08 50.2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 936 23.89% IA Akranes 1 1050 46.57% 29.54%
25 1984-06-16 49.8 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 937 24.96% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 986 45.27% 29.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1984-09-15 30.6 @ IA Akranes 3 1039 49.62% Breidablik 0 955 21.50% 28.87%
2 1984-07-13 31.6 IA Akranes 3 1044 46.45% @ Thor Akureyri 0 931 23.99% 29.57%
3 1984-06-16 32.6 @ IA Akranes 2 998 49.79% KR Reykjavik 0 913 21.38% 28.83%
4 1984-06-23 33.3 @ IA Akranes 2 1015 47.67% Throttur Reykjavik 0 947 23.01% 29.32%
5 1984-09-15 33.7 Fram Reykjavik 4 960 39.66% @ KA Akureyri 0 898 29.89% 30.46%
6 1984-09-15 33.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 930 38.66% Keflavik IF 0 929 30.81% 30.52%
7 1984-06-08 34.2 @ KA Akureyri 2 992 44.60% KR Reykjavik 0 948 25.52% 29.89%
8 1984-07-14 34.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 932 37.23% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 942 32.18% 30.59%
9 1984-05-27 34.4 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 931 36.87% Thor Akureyri 0 943 32.52% 30.61%
10 1984-07-07 36.1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 915 31.27% @ KR Reykjavik 0 912 38.18% 30.55%
11 1984-07-01 36.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 975 37.52% KA Akureyri 0 983 31.90% 30.58%
12 1984-08-14 36.4 @ Thor Akureyri 3 903 30.42% Fram Reykjavik 0 962 39.08% 30.50%
13 1984-08-18 36.5 @ IA Akranes 3 1043 55.05% KA Akureyri 1 914 17.69% 27.25%
14 1984-06-07 37.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 988 48.93% Thor Akureyri 0 910 22.03% 29.04%
15 1984-08-15 37.4 @ KR Reykjavik 2 898 33.85% KA Akureyri 0 931 35.51% 30.64%
16 1984-08-21 37.4 @ Breidablik 2 930 33.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 963 35.53% 30.64%
17 1984-09-08 38.2 KR Reykjavik 3 904 24.24% @ Keflavik IF 0 960 46.13% 29.63%
18 1984-06-06 38.6 @ IA Akranes 1 970 44.39% Valur Reykjavik 0 928 25.69% 29.92%
19 1984-09-07 38.6 @ Breidablik 1 948 44.44% KA Akureyri 0 905 25.65% 29.91%
20 1984-09-16 38.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 992 43.94% Thor Akureyri 0 953 26.07% 29.99%
21 1984-07-08 38.9 @ Keflavik IF 1 976 43.56% Valur Reykjavik 0 940 26.40% 30.04%
22 1984-06-23 39.3 Thor Akureyri 2 920 27.45% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 947 42.35% 30.20%
23 1984-06-13 39.4 IA Akranes 2 978 27.37% @ KA Akureyri 0 1006 42.45% 30.18%
24 1984-07-01 39.9 @ Keflavik IF 3 964 43.61% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 927 26.35% 30.03%
25 1984-06-06 40.3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 947 38.85% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 945 30.64% 30.51%