Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1983
‹ ›

1983 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

24 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1977.0

Relegated

IBI Isafjordur

13 pts

IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

4.57 points above expected

24 points · 19.43 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBI Isafjordur

4.60 points below expected

13 points · 17.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 10 4 4 24 29 11 +18 19.43 +4.57
2 KR Reykjavik 18 5 10 3 20 18 19 -1 18.17 +1.83
3 Breidablik 18 6 7 5 19 24 18 +6 18.26 +0.74
4 Thor Akureyri 18 5 8 5 18 21 19 +2 16.74 +1.26
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 4 7 18 29 31 -2 17.44 +0.56
6 Throttur Reykjavik 18 6 6 6 18 24 31 -7 17.87 +0.13
7 Keflavik IF 18 8 1 9 17 24 27 -3 18.10 -1.10
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 4 9 5 17 20 20 0 18.08 -1.08
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated 18 5 6 7 16 25 26 -1 18.31 -2.31
10 IBI Isafjordur Relegated 18 2 9 7 13 16 28 -12 17.60 -4.60

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 24 19.43 +4.57
2 KR Reykjavik 20 18.17 +1.83
3 Thor Akureyri 18 16.74 +1.26
4 Breidablik 19 18.26 +0.74
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 17.44 +0.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBI Isafjordur 13 17.60 -4.60
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 16 18.31 -2.31
3 Keflavik IF 17 18.10 -1.10
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 17 18.08 -1.08
5 Throttur Reykjavik 18 17.87 +0.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Jul 2 – Jul 26 1 in 595
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 23 – Sep 10 1 in 31
3 Thor Akureyri 2 Jul 9 – Jul 15 1 in 22
4 IA Akranes 3 Jul 15 – Aug 6 1 in 21
5 Throttur Reykjavik 2 Aug 4 – Aug 13 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Aug 4 – Aug 24 1 in 105
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 16 – Aug 4 1 in 43
3 Valur Reykjavik 3 May 31 – Jun 10 1 in 25
4 Breidablik 2 Jul 23 – Aug 2 1 in 13
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 May 23 – Jun 1 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 7 – Jul 9 1 in 18
2 IA Akranes 8 Jul 15 – Sep 11 1 in 13
3 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 25 – Jul 26 1 in 11
4 KR Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 12 1 in 9
5 IBI Isafjordur 4 Jun 12 – Jun 26 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBI Isafjordur 12 Jun 21 – Sep 10 1 in 102
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 8 Jun 15 – Aug 6 1 in 27
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jun 12 – Jul 15 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 9 – Aug 13 1 in 10
5 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jun 21 – Jul 17 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 955 24 +12 7 5.4 +1.6
KR Reykjavik 895 20 -3 5 5.3 -0.3
Breidablik 918 19 +14 6 5.0 +1.0
Throttur Reykjavik 884 18 +7 6 4.5 +1.5
Valur Reykjavik 886 18 +3 6 5.1 +0.9
Thor Akureyri 877 18 +2 4 4.5 -0.5
Vikingur Reykjavik 904 17 +8 6 4.9 +1.1
Keflavik IF 888 17 +1 4 5.0 -1.0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 888 16 -18 4 5.2 -1.2
IBI Isafjordur 856 13 -26 2 5.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE IA II IV KR KI TA TR VR VR
Breidablik —
1-0-1
2.48
0-2-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.56
0-0-2
2.67
2-0-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.90
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.71
0-2-0
2.62
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.78
 —
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.86
0-2-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-0
3.01
2-0-0
2.82
2-0-0
2.73
IBI Isafjordur
0-2-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.33
 —
0-1-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-2
2.66
0-2-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.64
0-1-1
2.58
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.69
1-1-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.79
 —
0-2-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.73
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.60
0-2-0
2.40
0-2-0
2.73
0-2-0
2.55
 —
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.87
0-2-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.58
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-2
2.25
2-0-0
2.61
2-0-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.46
 —
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-2
2.59
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
2.23
0-2-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
2.40
1-0-1
2.45
 —
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.58
0-2-0
2.38
Throttur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.42
0-2-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.80
 —
2-0-0
2.62
0-2-0
2.47
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.56
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-2
2.64
 —
1-1-0
2.50
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
2.67
2-0-0
2.67
0-2-0
2.88
0-2-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.76
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.30 +3.6
Allowed 0.49 -3.0
Differential 0.76 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%5.00%5.56%4.44%1.67%0.56%29.44%
15.00%14.44%7.78%2.78%1.11%—31.11%
25.56%7.78%8.89%3.33%——25.56%
34.44%2.78%3.33%———10.56%
41.67%1.11%————2.78%
5+0.56%—————0.56%
Total29.44%31.11%25.56%10.56%2.78%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.11 1.11 1.68
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.00 +0.33
SD 0.97 1.03 1.28
CV 0.73 1.03 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.61 +1.00
SD 1.50 0.78 1.88
CV 0.93 1.27 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—11.11%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%27.78%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.56 -0.67
SD 0.76 1.25 1.50
CV 0.85 0.80 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.44 -0.06
SD 1.24 1.10 2.04
CV 0.90 0.76 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
111.11%22.22%——5.56%—38.89%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.06 -0.06
SD 0.91 1.06 1.06
CV 0.91 1.00 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%38.89%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.50 -0.17
SD 1.03 1.04 1.79
CV 0.77 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
216.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.06 +0.11
SD 1.10 1.06 1.68
CV 0.94 1.00 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.33 1.41 2.03
CV 1.00 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
1—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
25.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%——44.44%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.72 -0.11
SD 1.14 1.13 1.97
CV 0.71 0.65 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—5.56%———33.33%
1—11.11%22.22%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%44.44%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.11 +0.00
SD 1.02 0.90 1.03
CV 0.92 0.81 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 955 24 19.43 +4.57 95.0% 13 14 17 19 22 24 29
Breidablik 918 19 18.26 +0.74 70.0% 11 14 16 18 20 24 29
Vikingur Reykjavik 904 17 18.08 -1.08 46.0% 10 14 16 18 20 23 25
KR Reykjavik 895 20 18.17 +1.83 80.0% 11 12 16 18 20 23 26
Keflavik IF 888 17 18.10 -1.10 39.0% 9 13 16 18 20 23 25
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 888 16 18.31 -2.31 24.0% 11 13 17 18 20 23 27
Valur Reykjavik 886 18 17.44 +0.56 65.0% 9 12 16 18 20 22 25
Throttur Reykjavik 884 18 17.87 +0.13 54.0% 11 13 16 18 20 22 25
Thor Akureyri 877 18 16.74 +1.26 76.0% 9 11 15 17 18 21 24
IBI Isafjordur 856 13 17.60 -4.60 7.0% 9 12 15 17 20 23 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.00%
Strong Edge
42.22%35.56%22.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge
153 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
070.44400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.7
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.47 * Some Luck: 2.47 to 3.71 * Lucky: 3.71 to 4.94 * Wild Swing: 4.94 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.34 * Close: 2.34 to 3.51 * Off: 3.51 to 4.68 * Way Off: 4.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.45 * A Surprise: 1.45 to 2.32 * Several Surprises: 2.32 to 3.19 * Many Surprises: 3.19 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.36 points
As Expected
03.098
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.60
Close
02.926
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
IBI Isafjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.08
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 26.46
0.83
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
52%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
64%
Even
50%62%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.57
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.09
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.50
Overconfident
01.002.94785
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.145
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes22.00%16.00%12.00%11.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%
KR Reykjavik6.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%6.00%13.00%6.00%9.00%7.00%12.00%
Breidablik17.00%7.00%10.00%7.00%8.00%13.00%6.00%17.00%10.00%5.00%
Thor Akureyri4.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%9.00%8.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%16.00%
Valur Reykjavik8.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%
Throttur Reykjavik5.00%11.00%13.00%6.00%12.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%16.00%10.00%
Keflavik IF13.00%7.00%5.00%12.00%15.00%13.00%6.00%7.00%10.00%12.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik11.00%12.00%7.00%5.00%11.00%16.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%3.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar8.00%14.00%8.00%16.00%15.00%5.00%11.00%9.00%6.00%8.00%
IBI Isafjordur6.00%6.00%12.00%11.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%11.00%14.00%15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 91.00% 9.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 86.00% 14.00%
Breidablik 85.00% 15.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 85.00% 15.00%
KR Reykjavik 81.00% 19.00%
Keflavik IF 78.00% 22.00%
Valur Reykjavik 75.00% 25.00%
Thor Akureyri 74.00% 26.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 74.00% 26.00%
IBI Isafjordur 71.00% 29.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1983-05-18 KR Reykjavik D 2-255.3 895 896 45.28% 37.04% 17.68%+0.45 -0.5 1
1983-05-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-255.3 896 895 17.68% 37.04% 45.28%-0.45 +0.6 1
1983-05-19 IBI Isafjordur W 4-033.2 906 896 46.53% 36.82% 16.66%+0.53 +10.8 2
1983-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-433.2 896 906 16.66% 36.82% 46.53%-0.53 -10.8 0
1983-05-19 Valur Reykjavik L 1-252.2 894 899 44.81% 37.11% 18.08%+0.43 -5.6 0
1983-05-19 @ Keflavik IF W 2-152.2 899 894 18.08% 37.11% 44.81%-0.43 +5.6 2
1983-05-19 IA Akranes L 0-144.4 857 907 39.58% 37.63% 22.79%+0.14 -5.4 0
1983-05-19 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-044.4 907 857 22.79% 37.63% 39.58%-0.14 +5.4 2
1983-05-19 Breidablik D 0-043.8 906 894 46.72% 36.78% 16.50%+0.54 -0.9 1
1983-05-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-043.8 894 906 16.50% 36.78% 46.72%-0.54 +0.9 1
1983-05-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-034.3 913 905 46.15% 36.89% 16.97%+0.51 +5.8 4
1983-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-234.3 905 913 16.97% 36.89% 46.15%-0.51 -5.8 1
1983-05-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-034.8 885 895 44.30% 37.18% 18.51%+0.40 +6.2 2
1983-05-23 @ IBI Isafjordur L 0-234.8 895 885 18.51% 37.18% 44.30%-0.40 -6.2 1
1983-05-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-142.0 888 917 42.07% 37.45% 20.48%+0.27 +5.7 2
1983-05-23 @ Keflavik IF L 1-342.0 917 888 20.48% 37.45% 42.07%-0.27 -5.7 2
1983-05-23 Breidablik W 2-143.7 904 895 46.42% 36.84% 16.75%+0.52 +2.9 4
1983-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-243.7 895 904 16.75% 36.84% 46.42%-0.52 -2.9 1
1983-05-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-149.2 896 852 49.98% 36.00% 14.02%+0.75 -1.0 2
1983-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-149.2 852 896 14.02% 36.00% 49.98%-0.75 +1.0 1
1983-05-31 IA Akranes W 1-038.5 892 918 42.38% 37.42% 20.20%+0.29 +3.5 3
1983-05-31 @ Breidablik L 0-138.5 918 892 20.20% 37.42% 42.38%-0.29 -3.5 4
1983-05-31 Valur Reykjavik W 3-033.1 911 907 45.82% 36.95% 17.23%+0.49 +8.5 4
1983-05-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-333.1 907 911 17.23% 36.95% 45.82%-0.49 -8.5 4
1983-06-01 IBI Isafjordur D 1-148.7 853 891 41.01% 37.54% 21.45%+0.21 -0.5 2
1983-06-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-148.7 891 853 21.45% 37.54% 41.01%-0.21 +0.5 3
1983-06-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-252.5 900 895 45.84% 36.94% 17.22%+0.49 -5.8 1
1983-06-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-152.5 895 900 17.22% 36.94% 45.84%-0.49 +5.8 4
1983-06-02 Keflavik IF W 2-144.2 888 894 44.77% 37.12% 18.11%+0.42 +3.0 3
1983-06-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-244.2 894 888 18.11% 37.12% 44.77%-0.42 -3.0 2
1983-06-06 Breidablik W 1-037.5 901 895 46.00% 36.91% 17.09%+0.50 +3.1 6
1983-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-137.5 895 901 17.09% 36.91% 46.00%-0.50 -3.1 3
1983-06-07 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-032.3 920 891 48.39% 36.42% 15.19%+0.65 +7.7 6
1983-06-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-332.3 891 920 15.19% 36.42% 48.39%-0.65 -7.7 3
1983-06-07 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-357.6 892 894 45.11% 37.06% 17.83%+0.44 -5.4 3
1983-06-07 @ IBI Isafjordur W 3-257.6 894 892 17.83% 37.06% 45.11%-0.44 +5.4 3
1983-06-07 Thor Akureyri W 2-142.8 891 853 49.37% 36.17% 14.46%+0.71 +2.6 4
1983-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 1-242.8 853 891 14.46% 36.17% 49.37%-0.71 -2.6 2
1983-06-07 IA Akranes L 0-341.1 899 915 43.58% 37.28% 19.14%+0.35 -16.0 4
1983-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-041.1 915 899 19.14% 37.28% 43.58%-0.35 +16.0 6
1983-06-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-148.7 850 928 36.01% 37.71% 26.28%-0.05 -0.2 3
1983-06-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-148.7 928 850 26.28% 37.71% 36.01%+0.05 +0.2 7
1983-06-10 Valur Reykjavik W 3-249.3 884 883 45.46% 37.01% 17.53%+0.47 +2.8 5
1983-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-349.3 883 884 17.53% 37.01% 45.46%-0.47 -2.8 4
1983-06-12 IBI Isafjordur D 1-148.9 892 886 46.05% 36.90% 17.05%+0.50 -0.8 4
1983-06-12 @ Breidablik D 1-148.9 886 892 17.05% 36.90% 46.05%-0.50 +0.8 4
1983-06-12 KR Reykjavik D 1-149.1 931 904 48.20% 36.46% 15.34%+0.63 -0.9 7
1983-06-12 @ IA Akranes D 1-149.1 904 931 15.34% 36.46% 48.20%-0.63 +0.9 7
1983-06-12 Keflavik IF W 3-140.8 899 893 46.02% 36.91% 17.07%+0.50 +5.0 5
1983-06-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-340.8 893 899 17.07% 36.91% 46.02%-0.50 -5.0 4
1983-06-14 Thor Akureyri L 1-253.3 886 850 49.21% 36.21% 14.57%+0.70 -6.1 5
1983-06-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-153.3 850 886 14.57% 36.21% 49.21%-0.70 +6.1 5
1983-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-149.0 928 904 47.88% 36.53% 15.59%+0.61 -0.9 8
1983-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-149.0 904 928 15.59% 36.53% 47.88%-0.61 +0.9 6
1983-06-15 IA Akranes W 1-039.1 887 930 40.39% 37.58% 22.03%+0.18 +3.7 6
1983-06-15 @ IBI Isafjordur L 0-139.1 930 887 22.03% 37.58% 40.39%-0.18 -3.7 7
1983-06-15 Breidablik L 0-242.8 888 892 45.02% 37.08% 17.90%+0.44 -11.3 4
1983-06-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-042.8 892 888 17.90% 37.08% 45.02%-0.44 +11.3 6
1983-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-038.5 903 927 42.65% 37.39% 19.96%+0.30 +3.5 8
1983-06-18 @ Breidablik L 0-138.5 927 903 19.96% 37.39% 42.65%-0.30 -3.4 8
1983-06-18 Keflavik IF W 4-032.0 926 877 50.46% 35.87% 13.68%+0.78 +9.3 9
1983-06-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-432.0 877 926 13.68% 35.87% 50.46%-0.78 -9.3 4
1983-06-18 KR Reykjavik W 4-139.4 880 905 42.53% 37.40% 20.07%+0.30 +8.0 6
1983-06-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-439.4 905 880 20.07% 37.40% 42.53%-0.30 -8.0 7
1983-06-19 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-043.9 905 880 48.01% 36.50% 15.48%+0.62 -1.0 7
1983-06-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-043.9 880 905 15.48% 36.50% 48.01%-0.62 +1.0 6
1983-06-21 IBI Isafjordur D 0-043.8 897 891 46.09% 36.90% 17.01%+0.50 -0.9 8
1983-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-043.8 891 897 17.01% 36.90% 46.09%-0.50 +0.9 7
1983-06-21 Valur Reykjavik D 2-255.2 856 888 41.71% 37.48% 20.81%+0.25 -0.4 6
1983-06-21 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-255.2 888 856 20.81% 37.48% 41.71%-0.25 +0.4 7
1983-06-23 Breidablik D 1-148.8 881 906 42.56% 37.40% 20.05%+0.30 -0.6 7
1983-06-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-148.8 906 881 20.05% 37.40% 42.56%-0.30 +0.6 9
1983-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-043.6 855 904 39.69% 37.62% 22.68%+0.14 -0.5 7
1983-06-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-043.6 904 855 22.68% 37.62% 39.69%-0.14 +0.5 8
1983-06-25 IA Akranes W 2-144.4 924 936 44.03% 37.22% 18.74%+0.38 +3.1 10
1983-06-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.4 936 924 18.74% 37.22% 44.03%-0.38 -3.1 9
1983-06-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-148.8 868 896 42.13% 37.44% 20.43%+0.27 -0.6 5
1983-06-25 @ Keflavik IF D 1-148.8 896 868 20.43% 37.44% 42.13%-0.27 +0.6 9
1983-06-26 IBI Isafjordur D 1-148.9 888 891 45.03% 37.08% 17.89%+0.44 -0.7 8
1983-06-26 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-148.9 891 888 17.89% 37.08% 45.03%-0.44 +0.7 8
1983-07-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-031.6 907 855 50.71% 35.79% 13.50%+0.80 +7.0 11
1983-07-02 @ Breidablik L 0-331.6 855 907 13.50% 35.79% 50.71%-0.80 -7.0 7
1983-07-02 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-032.8 933 881 50.69% 35.80% 13.51%+0.80 +11.3 11
1983-07-02 @ IA Akranes L 0-532.8 881 933 13.51% 35.80% 50.69%-0.80 -11.3 7
1983-07-02 Keflavik IF L 1-253.0 892 867 48.03% 36.50% 15.47%+0.62 -6.0 8
1983-07-02 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-153.0 867 892 15.47% 36.50% 48.03%-0.62 +6.0 7
1983-07-02 Valur Reykjavik D 1-149.0 905 888 47.20% 36.68% 16.12%+0.57 -0.9 9
1983-07-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-149.0 888 905 16.12% 36.68% 47.20%-0.57 +0.8 9
1983-07-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-255.2 897 927 41.98% 37.45% 20.56%+0.27 -0.4 10
1983-07-03 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-255.2 927 897 20.56% 37.45% 41.98%-0.27 +0.4 11
1983-07-09 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-043.8 914 904 46.46% 36.83% 16.71%+0.53 -0.9 12
1983-07-09 @ Breidablik D 0-043.8 904 914 16.71% 36.83% 46.46%-0.53 +0.9 10
1983-07-09 Thor Akureyri L 0-244.9 944 848 54.77% 34.33% 10.90%+1.09 -13.3 11
1983-07-09 @ IA Akranes W 2-044.9 848 944 10.90% 34.33% 54.77%-1.09 +13.3 9
1983-07-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-255.2 886 927 40.66% 37.56% 21.77%+0.19 -0.4 9
1983-07-09 @ IBI Isafjordur D 2-255.2 927 886 21.77% 37.56% 40.66%-0.19 +0.4 12
1983-07-11 Keflavik IF L 0-243.3 889 873 47.03% 36.72% 16.26%+0.56 -11.7 9
1983-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-043.3 873 889 16.26% 36.72% 47.03%-0.56 +11.7 9
1983-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-043.9 896 869 48.23% 36.45% 15.32%+0.64 -1.0 11
1983-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-043.9 869 896 15.32% 36.45% 48.23%-0.64 +1.0 8
1983-07-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-035.7 861 895 41.47% 37.50% 21.03%+0.24 +6.7 11
1983-07-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-235.7 895 861 21.03% 37.50% 41.47%-0.24 -6.7 11
1983-07-15 IA Akranes L 1-251.6 905 930 42.46% 37.41% 20.13%+0.29 -5.4 10
1983-07-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-151.6 930 905 20.13% 37.41% 42.46%-0.29 +5.4 13
1983-07-16 Keflavik IF L 1-253.4 927 885 49.80% 36.05% 14.15%+0.74 -6.2 12
1983-07-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-153.4 885 927 14.15% 36.05% 49.80%-0.74 +6.2 11
1983-07-16 IBI Isafjordur W 1-038.2 870 886 43.66% 37.27% 19.07%+0.36 +3.3 10
1983-07-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-138.2 886 870 19.07% 37.27% 43.66%-0.36 -3.3 9
1983-07-17 Valur Reykjavik D 2-255.6 913 877 49.17% 36.22% 14.61%+0.70 -0.7 13
1983-07-17 @ Breidablik D 2-255.6 877 913 14.61% 36.22% 49.17%-0.70 +0.7 10
1983-07-23 Breidablik W 3-248.6 936 912 47.88% 36.53% 15.59%+0.61 +2.6 15
1983-07-23 @ IA Akranes L 2-348.6 912 936 15.59% 36.53% 47.88%-0.61 -2.6 13
1983-07-25 Thor Akureyri D 0-043.8 883 868 46.94% 36.74% 16.33%+0.56 -0.9 10
1983-07-25 @ IBI Isafjordur D 0-043.8 868 883 16.33% 36.74% 46.94%-0.56 +0.9 12
1983-07-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-034.7 877 921 40.31% 37.59% 22.11%+0.17 +10.1 12
1983-07-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-334.7 921 877 22.11% 37.59% 40.31%-0.17 -10.1 12
1983-07-26 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-248.8 891 874 47.22% 36.68% 16.11%+0.57 +2.6 13
1983-07-26 @ Keflavik IF L 2-348.8 874 891 16.11% 36.68% 47.22%-0.57 -2.6 10
1983-07-26 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-144.4 889 899 44.19% 37.20% 18.61%+0.39 +3.1 13
1983-07-26 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-244.4 899 889 18.61% 37.20% 44.19%-0.39 -3.1 10
1983-08-02 KR Reykjavik L 0-146.4 910 892 47.29% 36.66% 16.04%+0.58 -6.3 13
1983-08-02 @ Breidablik W 1-046.4 892 910 16.04% 36.66% 47.29%-0.58 +6.2 15
1983-08-04 Keflavik IF W 2-035.4 869 894 42.58% 37.40% 20.02%+0.30 +6.5 14
1983-08-04 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-235.4 894 869 20.02% 37.40% 42.58%-0.30 -6.5 13
1983-08-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-142.4 871 911 40.77% 37.56% 21.68%+0.20 +6.0 12
1983-08-04 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-342.4 911 871 21.68% 37.56% 40.77%-0.20 -6.0 12
1983-08-06 Valur Reykjavik W 2-033.0 938 888 50.60% 35.82% 13.57%+0.79 +4.9 17
1983-08-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-233.0 888 938 13.57% 35.82% 50.60%-0.79 -4.9 12
1983-08-06 IBI Isafjordur D 2-255.4 896 882 46.95% 36.73% 16.32%+0.56 -0.6 11
1983-08-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-255.4 882 896 16.32% 36.73% 46.95%-0.56 +0.6 11
1983-08-13 Thor Akureyri W 3-140.0 905 875 48.52% 36.39% 15.10%+0.65 +4.6 14
1983-08-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-340.0 875 905 15.10% 36.39% 48.52%-0.65 -4.6 14
1983-08-13 Breidablik D 1-148.8 882 903 42.98% 37.35% 19.67%+0.32 -0.6 12
1983-08-13 @ IBI Isafjordur D 1-148.8 903 882 19.67% 37.35% 42.98%-0.32 +0.6 14
1983-08-13 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-252.1 887 896 44.43% 37.17% 18.40%+0.40 -5.6 13
1983-08-13 @ Keflavik IF W 2-152.1 896 887 18.40% 37.17% 44.43%-0.40 +5.6 13
1983-08-13 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-447.0 883 877 45.99% 36.92% 17.10%+0.50 -14.1 12
1983-08-13 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-147.0 877 883 17.10% 36.92% 45.99%-0.50 +14.1 14
1983-08-14 IA Akranes D 0-043.6 898 943 40.13% 37.60% 22.28%+0.16 -0.5 16
1983-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-043.6 943 898 22.28% 37.60% 40.13%-0.16 +0.5 18
1983-08-19 Valur Reykjavik W 3-248.4 898 869 48.42% 36.41% 15.17%+0.65 +2.5 18
1983-08-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-348.4 869 898 15.17% 36.41% 48.42%-0.65 -2.5 12
1983-08-19 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-034.2 871 891 43.08% 37.34% 19.58%+0.33 +12.2 16
1983-08-19 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-434.2 891 871 19.58% 37.34% 43.08%-0.33 -12.2 14
1983-08-20 Keflavik IF W 2-143.3 904 882 47.77% 36.56% 15.67%+0.61 +2.7 16
1983-08-20 @ Breidablik L 1-243.3 882 904 15.67% 36.56% 47.77%-0.61 -2.7 13
1983-08-20 IBI Isafjordur W 3-031.3 944 882 51.69% 35.48% 12.83%+0.87 +6.7 20
1983-08-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-331.3 882 944 12.83% 35.48% 51.69%-0.87 -6.7 12
1983-08-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-034.8 901 910 44.43% 37.17% 18.41%+0.40 +6.1 15
1983-08-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-234.8 910 901 18.41% 37.17% 44.43%-0.40 -6.1 14
1983-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 2-035.1 866 883 43.49% 37.29% 19.22%+0.35 +6.3 14
1983-08-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-235.1 883 866 19.22% 37.29% 43.49%-0.35 -6.3 16
1983-08-24 Breidablik L 0-341.5 904 907 45.03% 37.08% 17.90%+0.44 -16.4 14
1983-08-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-041.5 907 904 17.90% 37.08% 45.03%-0.44 +16.4 18
1983-08-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-148.8 875 900 42.53% 37.40% 20.07%+0.30 -0.6 13
1983-08-24 @ IBI Isafjordur D 1-148.8 900 875 20.07% 37.40% 42.53%-0.30 +0.6 19
1983-08-24 IA Akranes L 0-143.6 879 951 36.79% 37.71% 25.51%-0.01 -5.1 13
1983-08-24 @ Keflavik IF W 1-043.6 951 879 25.51% 37.71% 36.79%+0.01 +5.1 22
1983-08-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-255.2 879 907 42.16% 37.44% 20.40%+0.28 -0.4 15
1983-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-255.2 907 879 20.40% 37.44% 42.16%-0.28 +0.4 16
1983-08-31 Keflavik IF L 0-146.7 901 874 48.23% 36.45% 15.32%+0.64 -6.4 19
1983-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-046.7 874 901 15.32% 36.45% 48.23%-0.64 +6.4 15
1983-09-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 2-358.8 923 879 50.00% 36.00% 14.00%+0.75 -5.9 18
1983-09-02 @ Breidablik W 3-258.8 879 923 14.00% 36.00% 50.00%-0.75 +5.9 17
1983-09-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-149.4 956 887 52.28% 35.28% 12.44%+0.91 -1.1 23
1983-09-03 @ IA Akranes D 1-149.4 887 956 12.44% 35.28% 52.28%-0.91 +1.1 15
1983-09-03 Valur Reykjavik L 1-349.4 874 872 45.57% 36.99% 17.44%+0.47 -9.9 13
1983-09-03 @ IBI Isafjordur W 3-149.4 872 874 17.44% 36.99% 45.57%-0.47 +9.9 16
1983-09-03 Thor Akureyri D 0-043.9 908 877 48.65% 36.35% 15.00%+0.66 -1.1 17
1983-09-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-043.9 877 908 15.00% 36.35% 48.65%-0.66 +1.0 17
1983-09-10 KR Reykjavik D 0-043.7 888 894 44.72% 37.12% 18.16%+0.42 -0.8 16
1983-09-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-043.7 894 888 18.16% 37.12% 44.72%-0.42 +0.8 20
1983-09-10 IBI Isafjordur W 3-032.7 880 864 47.05% 36.71% 16.24%+0.56 +8.1 17
1983-09-10 @ Keflavik IF L 0-332.7 864 880 16.24% 36.71% 47.05%-0.56 -8.1 13
1983-09-10 Breidablik D 2-255.2 878 917 40.81% 37.55% 21.64%+0.20 -0.4 18
1983-09-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-255.2 917 878 21.64% 37.55% 40.81%-0.20 +0.4 19
1983-09-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-144.8 882 907 42.62% 37.39% 19.99%+0.30 +3.2 18
1983-09-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-244.8 907 882 19.99% 37.39% 42.62%-0.30 -3.2 17
1983-09-11 IA Akranes D 0-043.5 884 955 37.01% 37.70% 25.29%+0.00 -0.3 18
1983-09-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-043.5 955 884 25.29% 37.70% 37.01%+0.00 +0.3 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1983-07-09 10.90% Thor Akureyri 848 2 @ IA Akranes 944 0
2 1983-09-02 14.00% Throttur Reykjavik 879 3 @ Breidablik 923 2
3 1983-07-16 14.15% Keflavik IF 885 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 927 1
4 1983-06-14 14.57% Thor Akureyri 850 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 886 1
5 1983-08-31 15.32% Keflavik IF 874 1 @ KR Reykjavik 901 0
6 1983-07-02 15.47% Keflavik IF 867 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 892 1
7 1983-08-02 16.04% KR Reykjavik 892 1 @ Breidablik 910 0
8 1983-07-11 16.26% Keflavik IF 873 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 889 0
9 1983-08-13 17.10% Throttur Reykjavik 877 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 883 1
10 1983-06-01 17.22% KR Reykjavik 895 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 900 1
11 1983-09-03 17.44% Valur Reykjavik 872 3 @ IBI Isafjordur 874 1
12 1983-06-07 17.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 894 3 @ IBI Isafjordur 892 2
13 1983-06-15 17.90% Breidablik 892 2 @ Keflavik IF 888 0
14 1983-08-24 17.90% Breidablik 907 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 904 0
15 1983-05-19 18.08% Valur Reykjavik 899 2 @ Keflavik IF 894 1
16 1983-08-13 18.40% Vikingur Reykjavik 896 2 @ Keflavik IF 887 1
17 1983-06-07 19.14% IA Akranes 915 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 899 0
18 1983-07-15 20.13% IA Akranes 930 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 905 1
19 1983-05-19 22.79% IA Akranes 907 1 @ Thor Akureyri 857 0
20 1983-08-24 25.51% IA Akranes 951 1 @ Keflavik IF 879 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-08-24 16.45 Breidablik 3 907 17.90% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 904 45.03% 37.08%
2 1983-06-07 16.02 IA Akranes 3 915 19.14% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 899 43.58% 37.28%
3 1983-08-13 14.11 Throttur Reykjavik 4 877 17.10% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 883 45.99% 36.92%
4 1983-07-09 13.34 Thor Akureyri 2 848 10.90% @ IA Akranes 0 944 54.77% 34.33%
5 1983-08-19 12.17 @ Thor Akureyri 4 871 43.08% Throttur Reykjavik 0 891 19.58% 37.34%
6 1983-07-11 11.73 Keflavik IF 2 873 16.26% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 889 47.03% 36.72%
7 1983-06-15 11.32 Breidablik 2 892 17.90% @ Keflavik IF 0 888 45.02% 37.08%
8 1983-07-02 11.32 @ IA Akranes 5 933 50.69% Throttur Reykjavik 0 881 13.51% 35.80%
9 1983-05-19 10.83 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 906 46.53% IBI Isafjordur 0 896 16.66% 36.82%
10 1983-07-25 10.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 877 40.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 921 22.11% 37.59%
11 1983-09-03 9.91 Valur Reykjavik 3 872 17.44% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 874 45.57% 36.99%
12 1983-06-18 9.28 @ IA Akranes 4 926 50.46% Keflavik IF 0 877 13.68% 35.87%
13 1983-05-31 8.51 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 911 45.82% Valur Reykjavik 0 907 17.23% 36.95%
14 1983-09-10 8.14 @ Keflavik IF 3 880 47.05% IBI Isafjordur 0 864 16.24% 36.71%
15 1983-06-18 7.99 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 880 42.53% KR Reykjavik 1 905 20.07% 37.40%
16 1983-06-07 7.73 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 920 48.39% Throttur Reykjavik 0 891 15.19% 36.42%
17 1983-07-02 7.03 @ Breidablik 3 907 50.71% Thor Akureyri 0 855 13.50% 35.79%
18 1983-07-15 6.74 @ Thor Akureyri 2 861 41.47% KR Reykjavik 0 895 21.03% 37.50%
19 1983-08-20 6.73 @ IA Akranes 3 944 51.69% IBI Isafjordur 0 882 12.83% 35.48%
20 1983-08-04 6.52 @ Thor Akureyri 2 869 42.58% Keflavik IF 0 894 20.02% 37.40%
21 1983-08-31 6.36 Keflavik IF 1 874 15.32% @ KR Reykjavik 0 901 48.23% 36.45%
22 1983-08-23 6.33 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 866 43.49% Thor Akureyri 0 883 19.22% 37.29%
23 1983-08-02 6.26 KR Reykjavik 1 892 16.04% @ Breidablik 0 910 47.29% 36.66%
24 1983-05-23 6.17 @ IBI Isafjordur 2 885 44.30% Throttur Reykjavik 0 895 18.51% 37.18%
25 1983-07-16 6.16 Keflavik IF 2 885 14.15% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 927 49.80% 36.05%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-09-02 58.8 Throttur Reykjavik 3 879 14.00% @ Breidablik 2 923 50.00% 36.00%
2 1983-06-07 57.6 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 894 17.83% @ IBI Isafjordur 2 892 45.11% 37.06%
3 1983-07-17 55.6 @ Breidablik 2 913 49.17% Valur Reykjavik 2 877 14.61% 36.22%
4 1983-08-06 55.4 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 896 46.95% IBI Isafjordur 2 882 16.32% 36.73%
5 1983-05-18 55.3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 895 45.28% KR Reykjavik 2 896 17.68% 37.04%
6 1983-06-21 55.2 @ Thor Akureyri 2 856 41.71% Valur Reykjavik 2 888 20.81% 37.48%
7 1983-07-03 55.2 @ KR Reykjavik 2 897 41.98% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 927 20.56% 37.45%
8 1983-07-09 55.2 @ IBI Isafjordur 2 886 40.66% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 927 21.77% 37.56%
9 1983-08-24 55.2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 879 42.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 907 20.40% 37.44%
10 1983-09-10 55.2 @ Thor Akureyri 2 878 40.81% Breidablik 2 917 21.64% 37.55%
11 1983-07-16 53.4 Keflavik IF 2 885 14.15% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 927 49.80% 36.05%
12 1983-06-14 53.3 Thor Akureyri 2 850 14.57% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 886 49.21% 36.21%
13 1983-07-02 53.0 Keflavik IF 2 867 15.47% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 892 48.03% 36.50%
14 1983-06-01 52.5 KR Reykjavik 2 895 17.22% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 900 45.84% 36.94%
15 1983-05-19 52.2 Valur Reykjavik 2 899 18.08% @ Keflavik IF 1 894 44.81% 37.11%
16 1983-08-13 52.1 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 896 18.40% @ Keflavik IF 1 887 44.43% 37.17%
17 1983-07-15 51.6 IA Akranes 2 930 20.13% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 905 42.46% 37.41%
18 1983-09-03 49.4 @ IA Akranes 1 956 52.28% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 887 12.44% 35.28%
19 1983-09-03 49.4 Valur Reykjavik 3 872 17.44% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 874 45.57% 36.99%
20 1983-06-10 49.3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 884 45.46% Valur Reykjavik 2 883 17.53% 37.01%
21 1983-05-24 49.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 896 49.98% Thor Akureyri 1 852 14.02% 36.00%
22 1983-06-12 49.1 @ IA Akranes 1 931 48.20% KR Reykjavik 1 904 15.34% 36.46%
23 1983-06-15 49.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 928 47.88% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 904 15.59% 36.53%
24 1983-07-02 49.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 905 47.20% Valur Reykjavik 1 888 16.12% 36.68%
25 1983-06-12 48.9 @ Breidablik 1 892 46.05% IBI Isafjordur 1 886 17.05% 36.90%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-08-20 31.3 @ IA Akranes 3 944 51.69% IBI Isafjordur 0 882 12.83% 35.48%
2 1983-07-02 31.6 @ Breidablik 3 907 50.71% Thor Akureyri 0 855 13.50% 35.79%
3 1983-06-18 32.0 @ IA Akranes 4 926 50.46% Keflavik IF 0 877 13.68% 35.87%
4 1983-06-07 32.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 920 48.39% Throttur Reykjavik 0 891 15.19% 36.42%
5 1983-09-10 32.7 @ Keflavik IF 3 880 47.05% IBI Isafjordur 0 864 16.24% 36.71%
6 1983-07-02 32.8 @ IA Akranes 5 933 50.69% Throttur Reykjavik 0 881 13.51% 35.80%
7 1983-08-06 33.0 @ IA Akranes 2 938 50.60% Valur Reykjavik 0 888 13.57% 35.82%
8 1983-05-31 33.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 911 45.82% Valur Reykjavik 0 907 17.23% 36.95%
9 1983-05-19 33.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 906 46.53% IBI Isafjordur 0 896 16.66% 36.82%
10 1983-08-19 34.2 @ Thor Akureyri 4 871 43.08% Throttur Reykjavik 0 891 19.58% 37.34%
11 1983-05-23 34.3 @ IA Akranes 2 913 46.15% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 905 16.97% 36.89%
12 1983-07-25 34.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 877 40.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 921 22.11% 37.59%
13 1983-05-23 34.8 @ IBI Isafjordur 2 885 44.30% Throttur Reykjavik 0 895 18.51% 37.18%
14 1983-08-21 34.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 901 44.43% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 910 18.41% 37.17%
15 1983-08-23 35.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 866 43.49% Thor Akureyri 0 883 19.22% 37.29%
16 1983-08-04 35.4 @ Thor Akureyri 2 869 42.58% Keflavik IF 0 894 20.02% 37.40%
17 1983-07-15 35.7 @ Thor Akureyri 2 861 41.47% KR Reykjavik 0 895 21.03% 37.50%
18 1983-06-06 37.5 @ KR Reykjavik 1 901 46.00% Breidablik 0 895 17.09% 36.91%
19 1983-07-16 38.2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 870 43.66% IBI Isafjordur 0 886 19.07% 37.27%
20 1983-05-31 38.5 @ Breidablik 1 892 42.38% IA Akranes 0 918 20.20% 37.42%
21 1983-06-18 38.5 @ Breidablik 1 903 42.65% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 927 19.96% 37.39%
22 1983-06-15 39.1 @ IBI Isafjordur 1 887 40.39% IA Akranes 0 930 22.03% 37.58%
23 1983-06-18 39.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 880 42.53% KR Reykjavik 1 905 20.07% 37.40%
24 1983-08-13 40.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 905 48.52% Thor Akureyri 1 875 15.10% 36.39%
25 1983-06-12 40.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 899 46.02% Keflavik IF 1 893 17.07% 36.91%