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1982 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

23 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1981.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

14 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

4.06 points above expected

21 points · 16.94 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

3.43 points below expected

14 points · 17.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 7 9 2 23 25 17 +8 19.15 +3.85
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 4 5 22 23 16 +7 19.01 +2.99
3 KR Reykjavik 18 5 11 2 21 14 12 +2 16.94 +4.06
4 IA Akranes 18 6 6 6 18 22 20 +2 18.60 -0.60
5 IBI Isafjordur 18 6 5 7 17 30 29 +1 16.64 +0.36
6 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 5 7 17 18 21 -3 18.16 -1.16
7 Breidablik 18 6 5 7 17 18 22 -4 18.13 -1.13
8 Keflavik IF 18 5 6 7 16 14 19 -5 17.58 -1.58
9 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 7 7 15 17 23 -6 18.36 -3.36
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 6 8 14 20 22 -2 17.43 -3.43

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 21 16.94 +4.06
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 23 19.15 +3.85
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 19.01 +2.99
4 IBI Isafjordur 17 16.64 +0.36
5 IA Akranes 18 18.60 -0.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 14 17.43 -3.43
2 Fram Reykjavik 15 18.36 -3.36
3 Keflavik IF 16 17.58 -1.58
4 Valur Reykjavik 17 18.16 -1.16
5 Breidablik 17 18.13 -1.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBI Isafjordur 3 May 23 – Jun 12 1 in 92
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 19 – Jun 30 1 in 24
3 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 19 – Jun 24 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 2 Jul 3 – Jul 17 1 in 12
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 30 – Jul 3 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 29 – Jun 27 1 in 316
2 KA Akureyri 3 Jun 26 – Jul 3 1 in 44
3 IBI Isafjordur 3 Jun 19 – Jun 30 1 in 35
4 Keflavik IF 3 May 15 – May 23 1 in 23
5 Breidablik 2 Jun 26 – Jun 30 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 9 Jun 30 – Sep 6 1 in 35
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 Jun 13 – Aug 23 1 in 34
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 17
4 KA Akureyri 7 May 15 – Jun 19 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 11 – Jul 3 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jul 17 – Aug 23 1 in 12
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 24 – Aug 29 1 in 12
3 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 12
4 IBI Isafjordur 7 Jun 19 – Jul 24 1 in 9
5 Breidablik 6 Jul 24 – Sep 6 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vikingur Reykjavik 1060 23 +4 5 5.1 -0.1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1053 22 +10 7 5.3 +1.7
KR Reykjavik 1022 21 +13 7 5.0 +2.0
IA Akranes 1047 18 +9 6 5.0 +1.0
Valur Reykjavik 1029 17 +13 6 4.8 +1.2
IBI Isafjordur 1005 17 +3 5 4.8 +0.2
Breidablik 1013 17 -2 5 4.6 +0.4
Keflavik IF 1013 16 +0 5 5.0 -0.0
Fram Reykjavik 1009 15 -30 3 5.2 -2.2
KA Akureyri 1005 14 -18 1 4.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA II IV KA KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.96
1-1-0
2.48
2-0-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.66
0-2-0
2.43
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.71
 —
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.53
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.69
 —
2-0-0
2.93
0-0-2
2.65
1-1-0
2.78
0-2-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.77
0-2-0
2.56
IBI Isafjordur
2-0-0
2.30
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.32
 —
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.20
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
2.60
2-0-0
3.01
 —
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.94
2-0-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.57
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.49
 —
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.72
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
2.43
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.55
1-1-0
2.41
0-2-0
2.38
0-2-0
2.76
2-0-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.57
 —
0-2-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.60
0-1-1
2.36
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.37
0-2-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.53
0-2-0
2.62
 —
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.46
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.73
 —
0-1-1
2.38
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.72
0-2-0
2.69
0-1-1
3.06
1-1-0
2.68
2-0-0
2.82
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
2.79
1-1-0
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.06 +1.5
Allowed 0.43 -4.3
Differential 0.77 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%8.33%7.78%3.33%0.56%—33.33%
18.33%13.33%7.22%2.22%1.11%—32.22%
27.78%7.22%8.89%1.67%——25.56%
33.33%2.22%1.67%———7.22%
40.56%1.11%————1.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%32.22%25.56%7.22%1.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.12 +0.00
SD 1.01 1.01 1.46
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.22 -0.22
SD 0.97 0.94 1.59
CV 0.97 0.77 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%—5.56%—38.89%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%33.33%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.28 -0.33
SD 0.94 1.02 1.61
CV 0.99 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.11 +0.11
SD 1.17 0.90 1.37
CV 0.95 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%—44.44%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%44.44%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.61 +0.06
SD 1.14 1.29 2.01
CV 0.68 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
222.22%11.11%11.11%———44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.89 +0.39
SD 0.96 0.90 1.42
CV 0.75 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%11.11%———44.44%
1——11.11%———11.11%
2—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.22 -0.11
SD 1.13 1.06 1.41
CV 1.02 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—5.56%5.56%——38.89%
116.67%27.78%————44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 0.67 +0.11
SD 0.73 0.91 1.18
CV 0.94 1.36 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.06 -0.28
SD 0.88 1.06 1.27
CV 1.13 1.00 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%——44.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 1.19 0.99 1.69
CV 1.19 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
116.67%22.22%5.56%———44.44%
211.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.94 +0.44
SD 0.78 0.94 0.92
CV 0.56 0.99 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vikingur Reykjavik 1060 23 19.15 +3.85 90.0% 12 14 17 19 21 24 30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1053 22 19.01 +2.99 89.0% 10 14 17 19 21 23 26
IA Akranes 1047 18 18.60 -0.60 46.0% 11 13 16 19 21 24 26
Valur Reykjavik 1029 17 18.16 -1.16 44.0% 11 13 15 18 21 24 26
KR Reykjavik 1022 21 16.94 +4.06 91.0% 10 11 15 17 19 22 24
Keflavik IF 1013 16 17.58 -1.58 35.0% 8 11 15 18 20 23 28
Breidablik 1013 17 18.13 -1.13 42.0% 11 13 16 18 20 24 26
Fram Reykjavik 1009 15 18.36 -3.36 22.0% 10 13 16 18 21 24 26
IBI Isafjordur 1005 17 16.64 +0.36 64.0% 7 12 14 17 18 23 25
KA Akureyri 1005 14 17.43 -3.43 21.0% 11 12 15 17 20 23 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Clear Edge
37.78%35.56%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
614 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
02000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.35 * Wild Swing: 5.35 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.27 * Close: 2.27 to 3.41 * Off: 3.41 to 4.54 * Way Off: 4.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.44 * A Surprise: 1.44 to 2.3 * Several Surprises: 2.3 to 3.17 * Many Surprises: 3.17 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.63 points
As Expected
03.348
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.20
Pinpoint
02.846
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
21.00%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 20.65
0.89
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
55%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
58%
Even
50%60%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%69%100%
Blowouts
Expected 9%
10%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.63
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.17
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.38
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.93
Overconfident
01.003.50519
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.038
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik19.00%16.00%9.00%9.00%14.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%8.00%2.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar16.00%12.00%18.00%14.00%13.00%2.00%10.00%9.00%2.00%4.00%
KR Reykjavik4.00%13.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%6.00%12.00%15.00%9.00%16.00%
IA Akranes13.00%8.00%15.00%15.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%10.00%8.00%7.00%
IBI Isafjordur5.00%5.00%7.00%5.00%5.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%14.00%16.00%
Valur Reykjavik8.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%4.00%8.00%11.00%12.00%
Breidablik8.00%7.00%7.00%11.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%10.00%13.00%5.00%
Keflavik IF10.00%9.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%16.00%
Fram Reykjavik11.00%10.00%6.00%12.00%7.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%10.00%
KA Akureyri6.00%10.00%7.00%6.00%9.00%11.00%17.00%8.00%14.00%12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 94.00% 6.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 90.00% 10.00%
IA Akranes 85.00% 15.00%
Breidablik 82.00% 18.00%
Fram Reykjavik 79.00% 21.00%
Valur Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
KR Reykjavik 75.00% 25.00%
KA Akureyri 74.00% 26.00%
Keflavik IF 74.00% 26.00%
IBI Isafjordur 70.00% 30.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1982-05-15 Keflavik IF W 2-035.5 1034 1024 40.24% 37.42% 22.34%+0.08 +6.1 2
1982-05-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-235.5 1024 1034 22.34% 37.42% 40.24%-0.08 -6.1 0
1982-05-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-150.1 987 1006 36.48% 37.66% 25.86%+0.03 -0.2 1
1982-05-15 @ IBI Isafjordur D 1-150.1 1006 987 25.86% 37.66% 36.48%-0.03 +0.2 1
1982-05-15 KA Akureyri D 2-256.7 1041 1016 42.02% 37.23% 20.76%+0.10 -0.4 1
1982-05-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-256.7 1016 1041 20.76% 37.23% 42.02%-0.10 +0.4 1
1982-05-16 IA Akranes W 2-147.0 1030 1046 37.03% 37.64% 25.33%+0.04 +3.3 2
1982-05-16 @ Breidablik L 1-247.0 1046 1030 25.33% 37.64% 37.03%-0.04 -3.3 0
1982-05-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.2 1035 1037 38.79% 37.54% 23.67%+0.06 -0.3 1
1982-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.2 1037 1035 23.67% 37.54% 38.79%-0.06 +0.3 1
1982-05-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-249.0 987 1040 31.83% 37.68% 30.49%-0.02 -3.8 1
1982-05-19 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-149.0 1040 987 30.49% 37.68% 31.83%+0.02 +3.8 4
1982-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-143.6 1018 1035 36.84% 37.65% 25.51%+0.04 -4.5 0
1982-05-19 @ Keflavik IF W 1-043.6 1035 1018 25.51% 37.65% 36.84%-0.04 +4.5 3
1982-05-19 KA Akureyri D 0-044.3 1007 1017 37.69% 37.61% 24.70%+0.05 -0.3 2
1982-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1017 1007 24.70% 37.61% 37.69%-0.05 +0.3 2
1982-05-20 Breidablik D 2-256.6 1037 1034 39.48% 37.49% 23.03%+0.07 -0.3 2
1982-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-256.6 1034 1037 23.03% 37.49% 39.48%-0.07 +0.3 3
1982-05-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-035.8 1042 1040 39.25% 37.51% 23.24%+0.07 +6.3 2
1982-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-235.8 1040 1042 23.24% 37.51% 39.25%-0.07 -6.3 1
1982-05-23 Keflavik IF W 3-034.0 1034 1014 41.53% 37.28% 21.19%+0.10 +8.6 5
1982-05-23 @ Breidablik L 0-334.0 1014 1034 21.19% 37.28% 41.53%-0.10 -8.6 0
1982-05-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-145.4 1044 1006 43.61% 37.00% 19.39%+0.12 -5.1 4
1982-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-045.4 1006 1044 19.39% 37.00% 43.61%-0.12 +5.1 4
1982-05-23 IA Akranes D 0-044.3 1017 1049 34.88% 37.70% 27.42%+0.01 -0.2 3
1982-05-23 @ KA Akureyri D 0-044.3 1049 1017 27.42% 37.70% 34.88%-0.01 +0.2 3
1982-05-23 IBI Isafjordur L 2-357.7 1039 983 45.77% 36.61% 17.61%+0.16 -4.7 3
1982-05-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-257.7 983 1039 17.61% 36.61% 45.77%-0.16 +4.7 3
1982-05-24 Fram Reykjavik W 1-039.7 1034 1037 38.63% 37.55% 23.82%+0.06 +3.4 3
1982-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-139.7 1037 1034 23.82% 37.55% 38.63%-0.06 -3.4 2
1982-05-26 IA Akranes D 0-044.3 1011 1049 34.06% 37.71% 28.23%+0.00 -0.1 5
1982-05-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1049 1011 28.23% 37.71% 34.06%+0.00 +0.1 4
1982-05-27 KA Akureyri L 1-251.7 1034 1017 41.10% 37.33% 21.56%+0.09 -4.6 2
1982-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-151.7 1017 1034 21.56% 37.33% 41.10%-0.09 +4.6 5
1982-05-29 Breidablik W 3-037.0 988 1042 31.62% 37.68% 30.70%-0.03 +10.9 5
1982-05-29 @ IBI Isafjordur L 0-337.0 1042 988 30.70% 37.68% 31.62%+0.03 -10.9 5
1982-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.7 1005 1037 34.75% 37.70% 27.55%+0.01 +3.5 2
1982-05-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-247.7 1037 1005 27.55% 37.70% 34.75%-0.01 -3.5 3
1982-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-143.1 1009 1039 35.04% 37.70% 27.26%+0.01 -4.3 2
1982-06-08 @ Keflavik IF W 1-043.1 1039 1009 27.26% 37.70% 35.04%-0.01 +4.3 6
1982-06-11 Keflavik IF D 0-044.4 1022 1004 41.17% 37.33% 21.50%+0.09 -0.5 6
1982-06-11 @ KA Akureyri D 0-044.4 1004 1022 21.50% 37.33% 41.17%-0.09 +0.5 3
1982-06-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.9 1032 1043 37.51% 37.62% 24.87%+0.04 +3.3 7
1982-06-12 @ Breidablik L 1-246.9 1043 1032 24.87% 37.62% 37.51%-0.04 -3.3 6
1982-06-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-144.9 1049 1029 41.47% 37.29% 21.23%+0.10 -4.9 4
1982-06-12 @ IA Akranes W 1-044.9 1029 1049 21.23% 37.29% 41.47%-0.10 +4.9 4
1982-06-12 IBI Isafjordur L 0-340.6 1034 998 43.36% 37.04% 19.60%+0.12 -13.9 3
1982-06-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-040.6 998 1034 19.60% 37.04% 43.36%-0.12 +13.9 7
1982-06-13 KR Reykjavik W 2-035.0 1035 1011 41.93% 37.24% 20.84%+0.10 +5.8 5
1982-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-235.0 1011 1035 20.84% 37.24% 41.93%-0.10 -5.8 5
1982-06-16 Breidablik W 3-142.0 1044 1035 40.16% 37.43% 22.41%+0.08 +5.3 6
1982-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-342.0 1035 1044 22.41% 37.43% 40.16%-0.08 -5.3 7
1982-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 3-034.7 1021 1020 39.14% 37.51% 23.35%+0.06 +9.2 8
1982-06-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-334.7 1020 1021 23.35% 37.51% 39.14%-0.06 -9.1 3
1982-06-18 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1005 1034 35.25% 37.69% 27.05%+0.02 -0.2 6
1982-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1034 1005 27.05% 37.69% 35.25%-0.02 +0.2 5
1982-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-034.8 1040 1011 42.59% 37.15% 20.26%+0.11 +5.7 8
1982-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-234.8 1011 1040 20.26% 37.15% 42.59%-0.11 -5.7 3
1982-06-19 KA Akureyri L 1-250.4 1012 1030 36.69% 37.65% 25.66%+0.03 -4.2 7
1982-06-19 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-150.4 1030 1012 25.66% 37.65% 36.69%-0.03 +4.2 10
1982-06-19 IA Akranes W 1-041.3 1005 1049 33.08% 37.70% 29.21%-0.01 +3.9 5
1982-06-19 @ Keflavik IF L 0-141.3 1049 1005 29.21% 37.70% 33.08%+0.01 -3.9 6
1982-06-20 Breidablik D 1-150.2 1040 1030 40.39% 37.41% 22.20%+0.08 -0.4 6
1982-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.2 1030 1040 22.20% 37.41% 40.39%-0.08 +0.4 8
1982-06-24 Keflavik IF L 0-241.4 1034 1009 42.17% 37.21% 20.62%+0.10 -9.4 5
1982-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-041.4 1009 1034 20.62% 37.21% 42.17%-0.10 +9.4 7
1982-06-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-241.4 1030 1005 42.08% 37.22% 20.70%+0.10 -9.4 8
1982-06-26 @ Breidablik W 2-041.4 1005 1030 20.70% 37.22% 42.08%-0.10 +9.4 8
1982-06-26 IBI Isafjordur W 2-145.0 1045 1008 43.57% 37.01% 19.42%+0.12 +2.8 8
1982-06-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-245.0 1008 1045 19.42% 37.01% 43.57%-0.12 -2.8 7
1982-06-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-143.8 1034 1046 37.57% 37.61% 24.82%+0.04 -4.6 10
1982-06-26 @ KA Akureyri W 1-043.8 1046 1034 24.82% 37.61% 37.57%-0.04 +4.6 10
1982-06-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-142.9 1005 1040 34.40% 37.71% 27.89%+0.01 -4.3 3
1982-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-042.9 1040 1005 27.89% 37.71% 34.40%-0.01 +4.3 8
1982-06-29 Keflavik IF D 0-044.3 1015 1018 38.57% 37.56% 23.88%+0.06 -0.4 9
1982-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1018 1015 23.88% 37.56% 38.57%-0.06 +0.4 8
1982-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-144.9 1021 1001 41.47% 37.29% 21.24%+0.10 -4.9 8
1982-06-30 @ Breidablik W 1-044.9 1001 1021 21.24% 37.29% 41.47%-0.10 +4.9 5
1982-06-30 IA Akranes W 2-035.8 1050 1048 39.27% 37.50% 23.23%+0.07 +6.3 12
1982-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-235.8 1048 1050 23.23% 37.50% 39.27%-0.07 -6.3 8
1982-06-30 Fram Reykjavik L 0-239.8 1005 1025 36.48% 37.66% 25.86%+0.03 -8.4 7
1982-06-30 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-039.8 1025 1005 25.86% 37.66% 36.48%-0.03 +8.4 7
1982-06-30 KA Akureyri W 2-145.9 1044 1030 40.83% 37.36% 21.81%+0.09 +3.0 10
1982-06-30 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-245.9 1030 1044 21.81% 37.36% 40.83%-0.09 -3.0 10
1982-07-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-035.7 1033 1056 35.98% 37.68% 26.34%+0.03 +9.9 9
1982-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-335.7 1056 1033 26.34% 37.68% 35.98%-0.03 -9.9 12
1982-07-03 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-256.6 1042 1047 38.31% 37.57% 24.12%+0.05 -0.2 9
1982-07-03 @ IA Akranes D 2-256.6 1047 1042 24.12% 37.57% 38.31%-0.05 +0.2 11
1982-07-03 Breidablik L 0-240.9 1027 1016 40.42% 37.40% 22.18%+0.08 -9.1 10
1982-07-03 @ KA Akureyri W 2-040.9 1016 1027 22.18% 37.40% 40.42%-0.08 +9.1 10
1982-07-03 IBI Isafjordur D 1-150.2 1018 997 41.68% 37.27% 21.05%+0.10 -0.5 9
1982-07-03 @ Keflavik IF D 1-150.2 997 1018 21.05% 37.27% 41.68%-0.10 +0.5 8
1982-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1006 1014 37.94% 37.59% 24.47%+0.05 -0.3 6
1982-07-04 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1014 1006 24.47% 37.59% 37.94%-0.05 +0.3 10
1982-07-13 IBI Isafjordur D 2-256.7 1014 997 41.15% 37.33% 21.52%+0.09 -0.3 11
1982-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-256.7 997 1014 21.52% 37.33% 41.15%-0.09 +0.3 9
1982-07-14 IA Akranes W 3-143.8 1005 1042 34.23% 37.71% 28.07%+0.00 +6.1 8
1982-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-343.8 1042 1005 28.07% 37.71% 34.23%+0.00 -6.2 9
1982-07-15 Keflavik IF W 3-141.3 1048 1018 42.67% 37.14% 20.19%+0.11 +4.9 13
1982-07-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-341.3 1018 1048 20.19% 37.14% 42.67%-0.11 -4.9 9
1982-07-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-034.6 1018 1014 39.47% 37.49% 23.04%+0.07 +9.1 12
1982-07-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-334.6 1014 1018 23.04% 37.49% 39.47%-0.07 -9.1 11
1982-07-17 Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.3 1025 1043 36.63% 37.66% 25.72%+0.03 +3.6 12
1982-07-17 @ Breidablik L 0-140.3 1043 1025 25.72% 37.66% 36.63%-0.03 -3.6 9
1982-07-17 IBI Isafjordur W 3-140.6 1047 998 44.90% 36.78% 18.32%+0.14 +4.6 14
1982-07-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-340.6 998 1047 18.32% 36.78% 44.90%-0.14 -4.6 9
1982-07-24 KA Akureyri W 1-039.2 1036 1027 40.10% 37.43% 22.46%+0.08 +3.2 11
1982-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-139.2 1027 1036 22.46% 37.43% 40.10%-0.08 -3.3 12
1982-07-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-256.6 993 1053 30.98% 37.65% 31.36%-0.03 +0.0 10
1982-07-24 @ IBI Isafjordur D 2-256.6 1053 993 31.36% 37.65% 30.98%+0.03 +0.0 14
1982-07-24 Breidablik W 1-040.2 1013 1028 37.02% 37.64% 25.34%+0.04 +3.5 11
1982-07-24 @ Keflavik IF L 0-140.2 1028 1013 25.34% 37.64% 37.02%-0.04 -3.5 12
1982-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-041.4 1005 1051 32.87% 37.70% 29.43%-0.01 +3.9 13
1982-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-141.4 1051 1005 29.43% 37.70% 32.87%+0.01 -3.9 14
1982-07-25 Valur Reykjavik D 1-150.3 1040 1012 42.46% 37.17% 20.37%+0.11 -0.5 10
1982-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.3 1012 1040 20.37% 37.17% 42.46%-0.11 +0.5 9
1982-07-28 IBI Isafjordur L 0-241.6 1025 993 42.91% 37.11% 19.99%+0.11 -9.5 12
1982-07-28 @ Breidablik W 2-041.6 993 1025 19.99% 37.11% 42.91%-0.11 +9.5 12
1982-07-28 KR Reykjavik D 1-150.3 1039 1009 42.68% 37.14% 20.18%+0.11 -0.5 12
1982-07-28 @ IA Akranes D 1-150.3 1009 1039 20.18% 37.14% 42.68%-0.11 +0.5 14
1982-07-28 Fram Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1024 1039 37.01% 37.64% 25.35%+0.04 -0.3 13
1982-07-28 @ KA Akureyri D 0-044.3 1039 1024 25.35% 37.64% 37.01%-0.04 +0.3 11
1982-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-039.4 1053 1047 39.68% 37.47% 22.85%+0.07 +3.3 16
1982-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-139.4 1047 1053 22.85% 37.47% 39.68%-0.07 -3.3 14
1982-07-29 Keflavik IF W 2-146.6 1012 1016 38.45% 37.56% 23.98%+0.06 +3.2 11
1982-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-246.6 1016 1012 23.98% 37.56% 38.45%-0.06 -3.2 11
1982-08-05 Breidablik D 0-044.4 1044 1015 42.55% 37.16% 20.30%+0.11 -0.6 15
1982-08-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-044.4 1015 1044 20.30% 37.16% 42.55%-0.11 +0.6 13
1982-08-05 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1010 1056 32.83% 37.70% 29.47%-0.01 -0.1 15
1982-08-05 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1056 1010 29.47% 37.70% 32.83%+0.01 +0.1 17
1982-08-07 Valur Reykjavik L 1-443.9 1003 1015 37.37% 37.62% 25.01%+0.04 -10.5 12
1982-08-07 @ IBI Isafjordur W 4-143.9 1015 1003 25.01% 37.62% 37.37%-0.04 +10.5 13
1982-08-07 KA Akureyri W 3-251.7 1013 1023 37.72% 37.61% 24.67%+0.05 +3.1 13
1982-08-07 @ Keflavik IF L 2-351.7 1023 1013 24.67% 37.61% 37.72%-0.05 -3.1 13
1982-08-08 IA Akranes D 2-256.6 1039 1038 39.15% 37.51% 23.34%+0.06 -0.3 12
1982-08-08 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-256.6 1038 1039 23.34% 37.51% 39.15%-0.06 +0.3 13
1982-08-14 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1016 1056 33.70% 37.71% 28.60%+0.00 -0.1 14
1982-08-14 @ Breidablik D 1-150.1 1056 1016 28.60% 37.71% 33.70%+0.00 +0.1 18
1982-08-14 Keflavik IF W 2-145.6 1039 1016 41.76% 37.26% 20.98%+0.10 +2.9 15
1982-08-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-245.6 1016 1039 20.98% 37.26% 41.76%-0.10 -2.9 13
1982-08-14 IBI Isafjordur L 2-356.9 1020 992 42.48% 37.17% 20.35%+0.11 -4.5 13
1982-08-14 @ KA Akureyri W 3-256.9 992 1020 20.35% 37.17% 42.48%-0.11 +4.5 14
1982-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-150.1 1026 1043 36.73% 37.65% 25.62%+0.03 -0.2 14
1982-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1043 1026 25.62% 37.65% 36.73%-0.03 +0.2 16
1982-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-241.5 1039 1009 42.66% 37.14% 20.20%+0.11 -9.5 12
1982-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-041.5 1009 1039 20.20% 37.14% 42.66%-0.11 +9.4 17
1982-08-21 KA Akureyri D 2-256.7 1044 1016 42.46% 37.17% 20.38%+0.11 -0.4 17
1982-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-256.7 1016 1044 20.38% 37.17% 42.46%-0.11 +0.4 14
1982-08-21 IA Akranes L 1-442.6 997 1041 33.03% 37.70% 29.27%-0.01 -9.6 14
1982-08-21 @ IBI Isafjordur W 4-142.6 1041 997 29.27% 37.70% 33.03%+0.01 +9.6 17
1982-08-23 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1013 1030 36.92% 37.64% 25.44%+0.04 -0.2 14
1982-08-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-150.1 1030 1013 25.44% 37.64% 36.92%-0.04 +0.2 13
1982-08-23 Valur Reykjavik D 0-044.5 1056 1026 42.76% 37.13% 20.11%+0.11 -0.6 19
1982-08-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-044.5 1026 1056 20.11% 37.13% 42.76%-0.11 +0.6 15
1982-08-24 Breidablik D 1-150.2 1019 1016 39.41% 37.49% 23.10%+0.07 -0.4 18
1982-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.2 1016 1019 23.10% 37.49% 39.41%-0.07 +0.4 15
1982-08-26 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-147.4 1030 1055 35.67% 37.69% 26.65%+0.02 +3.4 15
1982-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-247.4 1055 1030 26.65% 37.69% 35.67%-0.02 -3.4 19
1982-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-256.6 1043 1052 37.89% 37.60% 24.51%+0.05 -0.2 18
1982-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-256.6 1052 1043 24.51% 37.60% 37.89%-0.05 +0.2 20
1982-09-04 IBI Isafjordur L 0-441.6 1033 987 44.61% 36.83% 18.55%+0.14 -18.6 15
1982-09-04 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-041.6 987 1033 18.55% 36.83% 44.61%-0.14 +18.6 16
1982-09-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-251.4 1051 1043 40.02% 37.44% 22.53%+0.08 -4.5 17
1982-09-04 @ IA Akranes W 2-151.4 1043 1051 22.53% 37.44% 40.02%-0.08 +4.5 20
1982-09-04 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-239.2 1016 1052 34.24% 37.71% 28.05%+0.00 -8.1 14
1982-09-04 @ KA Akureyri W 2-039.2 1052 1016 28.05% 37.71% 34.24%+0.00 +8.1 22
1982-09-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-044.3 1013 1019 38.33% 37.57% 24.10%+0.05 -0.4 15
1982-09-04 @ Keflavik IF D 0-044.3 1019 1013 24.10% 37.57% 38.33%-0.05 +0.4 19
1982-09-06 Breidablik W 2-035.5 1026 1016 40.28% 37.42% 22.31%+0.08 +6.1 17
1982-09-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-235.5 1016 1026 22.31% 37.42% 40.28%-0.08 -6.1 15
1982-09-11 KA Akureyri W 2-146.3 1010 1008 39.26% 37.51% 23.24%+0.07 +3.1 17
1982-09-11 @ Breidablik L 1-246.3 1008 1010 23.24% 37.51% 39.26%-0.07 -3.1 14
1982-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-034.7 1048 1015 43.04% 37.09% 19.87%+0.12 +5.6 22
1982-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-234.7 1015 1048 19.87% 37.09% 43.04%-0.12 -5.6 15
1982-09-11 Keflavik IF D 0-044.3 1006 1013 38.07% 37.59% 24.34%+0.05 -0.3 17
1982-09-11 @ IBI Isafjordur D 0-044.3 1013 1006 24.34% 37.59% 38.07%-0.05 +0.3 16
1982-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 1-040.1 1019 1032 37.28% 37.63% 25.09%+0.04 +3.5 21
1982-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.1 1032 1019 25.09% 37.63% 37.28%-0.04 -3.5 17
1982-09-12 IA Akranes D 0-044.4 1060 1047 40.73% 37.37% 21.90%+0.09 -0.5 23
1982-09-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-044.4 1047 1060 21.90% 37.37% 40.73%-0.09 +0.5 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1982-05-23 17.61% IBI Isafjordur 983 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1039 2
2 1982-09-04 18.55% IBI Isafjordur 987 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1033 0
3 1982-05-23 19.39% KR Reykjavik 1006 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1044 0
4 1982-06-12 19.60% IBI Isafjordur 998 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1034 0
5 1982-07-28 19.99% IBI Isafjordur 993 2 @ Breidablik 1025 0
6 1982-08-16 20.20% KR Reykjavik 1009 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1039 0
7 1982-08-14 20.35% IBI Isafjordur 992 3 @ KA Akureyri 1020 2
8 1982-06-24 20.62% Keflavik IF 1009 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1034 0
9 1982-06-26 20.70% KR Reykjavik 1005 2 @ Breidablik 1030 0
10 1982-06-12 21.23% Fram Reykjavik 1029 1 @ IA Akranes 1049 0
11 1982-06-30 21.24% Valur Reykjavik 1001 1 @ Breidablik 1021 0
12 1982-05-27 21.56% KA Akureyri 1017 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1034 1
13 1982-07-03 22.18% Breidablik 1016 2 @ KA Akureyri 1027 0
14 1982-09-04 22.53% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1043 2 @ IA Akranes 1051 1
15 1982-06-26 24.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1046 1 @ KA Akureyri 1034 0
16 1982-08-07 25.01% Valur Reykjavik 1015 4 @ IBI Isafjordur 1003 1
17 1982-05-19 25.51% Vikingur Reykjavik 1035 1 @ Keflavik IF 1018 0
18 1982-06-19 25.66% KA Akureyri 1030 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 1012 1
19 1982-06-30 25.86% Fram Reykjavik 1025 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 1005 0
20 1982-06-08 27.26% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1039 1 @ Keflavik IF 1009 0
21 1982-06-27 27.89% Vikingur Reykjavik 1040 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1005 0
22 1982-09-04 28.05% Vikingur Reykjavik 1052 2 @ KA Akureyri 1016 0
23 1982-08-21 29.27% IA Akranes 1041 4 @ IBI Isafjordur 997 1
24 1982-05-19 30.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1040 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 987 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-09-04 18.57 IBI Isafjordur 4 987 18.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1033 44.61% 36.83%
2 1982-06-12 13.90 IBI Isafjordur 3 998 19.60% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1034 43.36% 37.04%
3 1982-05-29 10.90 @ IBI Isafjordur 3 988 31.62% Breidablik 0 1042 30.70% 37.68%
4 1982-08-07 10.48 Valur Reykjavik 4 1015 25.01% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 1003 37.37% 37.62%
5 1982-07-03 9.90 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1033 35.98% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1056 26.34% 37.68%
6 1982-08-21 9.63 IA Akranes 4 1041 29.27% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 997 33.03% 37.70%
7 1982-07-28 9.49 IBI Isafjordur 2 993 19.99% @ Breidablik 0 1025 42.91% 37.11%
8 1982-08-16 9.45 KR Reykjavik 2 1009 20.20% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1039 42.66% 37.14%
9 1982-06-24 9.36 Keflavik IF 2 1009 20.62% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1034 42.17% 37.21%
10 1982-06-26 9.35 KR Reykjavik 2 1005 20.70% @ Breidablik 0 1030 42.08% 37.22%
11 1982-06-16 9.15 @ KA Akureyri 3 1021 39.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1020 23.35% 37.51%
12 1982-07-03 9.07 Breidablik 2 1016 22.18% @ KA Akureyri 0 1027 40.42% 37.40%
13 1982-07-16 9.07 @ KA Akureyri 3 1018 39.47% KR Reykjavik 0 1014 23.04% 37.49%
14 1982-05-23 8.56 @ Breidablik 3 1034 41.53% Keflavik IF 0 1014 21.19% 37.28%
15 1982-06-30 8.41 Fram Reykjavik 2 1025 25.86% @ IBI Isafjordur 0 1005 36.48% 37.66%
16 1982-09-04 8.06 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1052 28.05% @ KA Akureyri 0 1016 34.24% 37.71%
17 1982-05-20 6.28 @ IA Akranes 2 1042 39.25% Valur Reykjavik 0 1040 23.24% 37.51%
18 1982-06-30 6.28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1050 39.27% IA Akranes 0 1048 23.23% 37.50%
19 1982-07-14 6.15 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1005 34.23% IA Akranes 1 1042 28.07% 37.71%
20 1982-05-15 6.12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1034 40.24% Keflavik IF 0 1024 22.34% 37.42%
21 1982-09-06 6.11 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1026 40.28% Breidablik 0 1016 22.31% 37.42%
22 1982-06-13 5.83 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1035 41.93% KR Reykjavik 0 1011 20.84% 37.24%
23 1982-06-19 5.72 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1040 42.59% Valur Reykjavik 0 1011 20.26% 37.15%
24 1982-09-11 5.64 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1048 43.04% Fram Reykjavik 0 1015 19.87% 37.09%
25 1982-06-16 5.31 @ IA Akranes 3 1044 40.16% Breidablik 1 1035 22.41% 37.43%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-05-23 57.7 IBI Isafjordur 3 983 17.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1039 45.77% 36.61%
2 1982-08-14 56.9 IBI Isafjordur 3 992 20.35% @ KA Akureyri 2 1020 42.48% 37.17%
3 1982-05-15 56.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1041 42.02% KA Akureyri 2 1016 20.76% 37.23%
4 1982-07-13 56.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1014 41.15% IBI Isafjordur 2 997 21.52% 37.33%
5 1982-08-21 56.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1044 42.46% KA Akureyri 2 1016 20.38% 37.17%
6 1982-05-20 56.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1037 39.48% Breidablik 2 1034 23.03% 37.49%
7 1982-07-03 56.6 @ IA Akranes 2 1042 38.31% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1047 24.12% 37.57%
8 1982-07-24 56.6 @ IBI Isafjordur 2 993 30.98% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1053 31.36% 37.65%
9 1982-08-08 56.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1039 39.15% IA Akranes 2 1038 23.34% 37.51%
10 1982-08-29 56.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1043 37.89% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1052 24.51% 37.60%
11 1982-05-27 51.7 KA Akureyri 2 1017 21.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1034 41.10% 37.33%
12 1982-08-07 51.7 @ Keflavik IF 3 1013 37.72% KA Akureyri 2 1023 24.67% 37.61%
13 1982-09-04 51.4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1043 22.53% @ IA Akranes 1 1051 40.02% 37.44%
14 1982-06-19 50.4 KA Akureyri 2 1030 25.66% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 1012 36.69% 37.65%
15 1982-07-25 50.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1040 42.46% Valur Reykjavik 1 1012 20.37% 37.17%
16 1982-07-28 50.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1039 42.68% KR Reykjavik 1 1009 20.18% 37.14%
17 1982-05-16 50.2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1035 38.79% Fram Reykjavik 1 1037 23.67% 37.54%
18 1982-06-20 50.2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1040 40.39% Breidablik 1 1030 22.20% 37.41%
19 1982-07-03 50.2 @ Keflavik IF 1 1018 41.68% IBI Isafjordur 1 997 21.05% 37.27%
20 1982-08-24 50.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1019 39.41% Breidablik 1 1016 23.10% 37.49%
21 1982-05-15 50.1 @ IBI Isafjordur 1 987 36.48% KR Reykjavik 1 1006 25.86% 37.66%
22 1982-06-18 50.1 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1005 35.25% Fram Reykjavik 1 1034 27.05% 37.69%
23 1982-08-05 50.1 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1010 32.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1056 29.47% 37.70%
24 1982-08-14 50.1 @ Breidablik 1 1016 33.70% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1056 28.60% 37.71%
25 1982-08-14 50.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1026 36.73% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1043 25.62% 37.65%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-05-23 34.0 @ Breidablik 3 1034 41.53% Keflavik IF 0 1014 21.19% 37.28%
2 1982-07-16 34.6 @ KA Akureyri 3 1018 39.47% KR Reykjavik 0 1014 23.04% 37.49%
3 1982-06-16 34.7 @ KA Akureyri 3 1021 39.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1020 23.35% 37.51%
4 1982-09-11 34.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1048 43.04% Fram Reykjavik 0 1015 19.87% 37.09%
5 1982-06-19 34.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1040 42.59% Valur Reykjavik 0 1011 20.26% 37.15%
6 1982-06-13 35.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1035 41.93% KR Reykjavik 0 1011 20.84% 37.24%
7 1982-05-15 35.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1034 40.24% Keflavik IF 0 1024 22.34% 37.42%
8 1982-09-06 35.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1026 40.28% Breidablik 0 1016 22.31% 37.42%
9 1982-07-03 35.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1033 35.98% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1056 26.34% 37.68%
10 1982-05-20 35.8 @ IA Akranes 2 1042 39.25% Valur Reykjavik 0 1040 23.24% 37.51%
11 1982-06-30 35.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1050 39.27% IA Akranes 0 1048 23.23% 37.50%
12 1982-05-29 37.0 @ IBI Isafjordur 3 988 31.62% Breidablik 0 1042 30.70% 37.68%
13 1982-07-24 39.2 @ IA Akranes 1 1036 40.10% KA Akureyri 0 1027 22.46% 37.43%
14 1982-09-04 39.2 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1052 28.05% @ KA Akureyri 0 1016 34.24% 37.71%
15 1982-07-28 39.4 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1053 39.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1047 22.85% 37.47%
16 1982-05-24 39.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1034 38.63% Fram Reykjavik 0 1037 23.82% 37.55%
17 1982-06-30 39.8 Fram Reykjavik 2 1025 25.86% @ IBI Isafjordur 0 1005 36.48% 37.66%
18 1982-09-11 40.1 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1019 37.28% Valur Reykjavik 0 1032 25.09% 37.63%
19 1982-07-24 40.2 @ Keflavik IF 1 1013 37.02% Breidablik 0 1028 25.34% 37.64%
20 1982-07-17 40.3 @ Breidablik 1 1025 36.63% Fram Reykjavik 0 1043 25.72% 37.66%
21 1982-06-12 40.6 IBI Isafjordur 3 998 19.60% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1034 43.36% 37.04%
22 1982-07-17 40.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1047 44.90% IBI Isafjordur 1 998 18.32% 36.78%
23 1982-07-03 40.9 Breidablik 2 1016 22.18% @ KA Akureyri 0 1027 40.42% 37.40%
24 1982-06-19 41.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1005 33.08% IA Akranes 0 1049 29.21% 37.70%
25 1982-07-15 41.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1048 42.67% Keflavik IF 1 1018 20.19% 37.14%