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1981 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

FH Hafnarfjordur

7 pts

Thor Akureyri · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

4.90 points above expected

25 points · 20.10 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FH Hafnarfjordur

7.45 points below expected

7 points · 14.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 11 3 4 25 30 23 +7 20.10 +4.90
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 9 2 23 24 17 +7 19.47 +3.53
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 22 29 17 +12 21.52 +0.48
4 Breidablik 18 7 8 3 22 27 20 +7 18.99 +3.01
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 20 30 24 +6 23.89 -3.89
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 3 7 19 29 21 +8 19.78 -0.78
7 KA Akureyri 18 7 4 7 18 22 18 +4 15.06 +2.94
8 KR Reykjavik 18 3 6 9 12 13 25 -12 16.46 -4.46
9 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 3 6 9 12 18 35 -17 10.28 +1.72
10 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 2 3 13 7 20 42 -22 14.45 -7.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 25 20.10 +4.90
2 Fram Reykjavik 23 19.47 +3.53
3 Breidablik 22 18.99 +3.01
4 KA Akureyri 18 15.06 +2.94
5 Thor Akureyri 12 10.28 +1.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 7 14.45 -7.45
2 KR Reykjavik 12 16.46 -4.46
3 Valur Reykjavik 20 23.89 -3.89
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 19.78 -0.78
5 IA Akranes 22 21.52 +0.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 May 31 – Jun 28 1 in 580
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 29 – Aug 20 1 in 40
3 Thor Akureyri 2 Aug 20 – Sep 2 1 in 25
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 16 – Jul 29 1 in 18
5 KA Akureyri 2 May 21 – May 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 7 Jul 27 – Sep 12 1 in 256
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 7 – Aug 20 1 in 107
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 20 – Jun 27 1 in 31
4 KA Akureyri 3 Jun 20 – Jun 28 1 in 23
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 May 30 – May 30 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 11 Jun 24 – Sep 12 1 in 75
2 Breidablik 10 May 8 – Jul 6 1 in 67
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 May 14 – Jul 18 1 in 41
4 KA Akureyri 5 Jul 6 – Aug 7 1 in 15
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 8 – Jun 20 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 12 May 16 – Jul 29 1 in 92
2 IA Akranes 6 May 30 – Jun 24 1 in 37
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 10 Jun 27 – Sep 12 1 in 17
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 6 – Aug 8 1 in 15
5 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 9 – Jun 3 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vikingur Reykjavik 1095 25 -1 6 5.4 +0.6
Fram Reykjavik 1102 23 +17 7 5.6 +1.4
IA Akranes 1136 22 +16 7 6.5 +0.5
Breidablik 1075 22 +5 6 5.5 +0.5
Valur Reykjavik 1117 20 -68 3 6.4 -3.4
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1089 19 +17 6 5.5 +0.5
KA Akureyri 1020 18 +43 6 3.9 +2.1
KR Reykjavik 979 12 +0 5 4.2 +0.8
Thor Akureyri 865 12 +20 4 2.8 +1.2
FH Hafnarfjordur 904 7 -51 0 3.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KR TA VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.18
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
3.16
0-2-0
4.11
1-1-0
1.97
1-1-0
2.48
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
1.83
 —
1-0-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
2.67
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
3.48
0-0-2
1.39
0-1-1
1.88
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
3.71
 —
0-2-0
2.31
0-2-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
4.19
0-2-0
2.12
1-1-0
2.59
IA Akranes
0-2-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.84
0-2-0
3.08
 —
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.78
0-1-1
3.64
1-1-0
4.34
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
3.55
0-2-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.38
 —
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.10
2-0-0
1.97
0-0-2
2.69
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.08
2-0-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
1.64
1-0-1
1.99
 —
1-1-0
2.37
0-2-0
3.62
1-1-0
1.44
0-0-2
1.96
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
1.77
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
3.02
 —
0-1-1
3.77
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
1.93
Thor Akureyri
0-2-0
1.35
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
1.28
0-1-1
1.15
0-0-2
1.36
0-2-0
1.79
1-1-0
1.66
 —
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
1.30
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.43
2-0-0
4.06
0-2-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
3.43
0-1-1
4.01
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
4.42
 —
1-0-1
3.44
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.52
2-0-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.48
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
1.96
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.60 +7.7
Allowed 0.70 -5.9
Differential 0.88 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%7.22%4.44%4.44%1.11%—30.56%
17.22%11.11%7.78%3.89%1.67%2.22%33.89%
24.44%7.78%1.11%1.67%0.56%0.56%16.11%
34.44%3.89%1.67%3.33%——13.33%
41.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
5+—2.22%0.56%———2.78%
Total30.56%33.89%16.11%13.33%3.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.87
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%——5.56%——27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%5.56%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.11 +0.39
SD 1.42 1.18 1.61
CV 0.95 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.33 -1.22
SD 1.18 1.33 1.90
CV 1.06 0.57 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%————27.78%
15.56%22.22%———5.56%33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%50.00%—5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.94 +0.39
SD 1.14 1.26 1.46
CV 0.85 1.33 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%——5.56%—38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.75 1.16 1.97
CV 1.09 1.23 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
211.11%—————11.11%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4—16.67%————16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.17 +0.44
SD 1.42 0.92 1.76
CV 0.88 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
116.67%16.67%11.11%———44.44%
2———————
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.00 +0.22
SD 1.40 0.91 1.80
CV 1.14 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
1—16.67%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.39 -0.67
SD 0.75 1.04 1.33
CV 1.04 0.75 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%55.56%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%11.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.91 1.70 1.92
CV 0.91 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
1—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.78 1.37 2.35
CV 1.07 1.03 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
25.56%27.78%5.56%—5.56%5.56%50.00%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.28 +0.39
SD 0.97 1.64 1.75
CV 0.58 1.28 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1136 22 21.52 +0.48 61.0% 12 15 19 21 24 28 31
Valur Reykjavik 1117 20 23.89 -3.89 14.0% 17 19 21 24 26 29 30
Fram Reykjavik 1102 23 19.47 +3.53 90.0% 12 15 17 19 21 25 26
Vikingur Reykjavik 1095 25 20.10 +4.90 96.0% 10 14 18 20 23 25 28
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1089 19 19.78 -0.78 46.0% 13 13 18 20 22 25 30
Breidablik 1075 22 18.99 +3.01 85.0% 12 13 17 19 21 25 26
KA Akureyri 1020 18 15.06 +2.94 83.0% 6 10 13 15 18 20 22
KR Reykjavik 979 12 16.46 -4.46 9.0% 6 12 14 17 19 21 23
FH Hafnarfjordur 904 7 14.45 -7.45 0.0% 8 9 12 14 16 20 21
Thor Akureyri 865 12 10.28 +1.72 75.0% 2 6 8 10 12 16 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
36.67%28.89%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 5th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.61 * Some Luck: 2.61 to 3.91 * Lucky: 3.91 to 5.22 * Wild Swing: 5.22 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.84 * Off: 1.84 to 2.46 * Way Off: 2.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.7 * A Surprise: 0.7 to 1.12 * Several Surprises: 1.12 to 1.54 * Many Surprises: 1.54 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.85 points
Some Luck
03.268
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.544
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 93.59
1.62
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.49
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.78
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1830.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik7.00%21.00%20.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%5.00%5.00%3.00%—
Fram Reykjavik9.00%11.00%11.00%17.00%18.00%17.00%8.00%6.00%3.00%—
IA Akranes28.00%13.00%16.00%21.00%4.00%3.00%9.00%5.00%—1.00%
Breidablik3.00%15.00%9.00%11.00%15.00%23.00%13.00%8.00%3.00%—
Valur Reykjavik42.00%26.00%16.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%———
IBV Vestmannaeyjar10.00%14.00%16.00%16.00%12.00%12.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%
KA Akureyri——4.00%3.00%9.00%11.00%21.00%18.00%29.00%5.00%
KR Reykjavik1.00%—5.00%6.00%17.00%13.00%19.00%18.00%16.00%5.00%
Thor Akureyri———1.00%1.00%1.00%3.00%8.00%15.00%71.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——3.00%3.00%6.00%6.00%12.00%26.00%27.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
IA Akranes 99.00% 1.00%
Breidablik 97.00% 3.00%
Fram Reykjavik 97.00% 3.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 97.00% 3.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 95.00% 5.00%
KR Reykjavik 79.00% 21.00%
KA Akureyri 66.00% 34.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 56.00% 44.00%
Thor Akureyri 14.00% 86.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1981-05-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-043.0 1044 1066 33.15% 30.62% 36.23%-0.07 +7.2 2
1981-05-08 @ Breidablik L 0-143.0 1066 1044 36.23% 30.62% 33.15%+0.07 -7.2 0
1981-05-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-151.5 1078 1073 37.01% 30.63% 32.36%+0.06 -0.2 1
1981-05-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1073 1078 32.36% 30.63% 37.01%-0.06 +0.2 1
1981-05-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-037.2 1032 997 41.17% 30.48% 28.35%+0.21 +11.5 2
1981-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-237.2 997 1032 28.35% 30.48% 41.17%-0.21 -11.5 0
1981-05-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-144.3 1059 986 46.06% 30.08% 23.86%+0.39 +5.0 2
1981-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-244.3 986 1059 23.86% 30.08% 46.06%-0.39 -5.0 0
1981-05-15 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1051 1078 32.53% 30.61% 36.86%-0.09 +0.2 3
1981-05-15 @ Breidablik D 1-151.5 1078 1051 36.86% 30.61% 32.53%+0.09 -0.1 2
1981-05-16 Thor Akureyri W 4-133.9 1073 863 60.45% 26.89% 12.66%+1.05 +7.1 3
1981-05-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-433.9 863 1073 12.66% 26.89% 60.45%-1.05 -7.1 0
1981-05-16 IA Akranes L 0-137.6 964 1105 19.46% 29.16% 51.39%-0.64 -4.5 0
1981-05-16 @ KA Akureyri W 1-037.6 1105 964 51.39% 29.16% 19.46%+0.64 +4.5 2
1981-05-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-032.1 1159 1044 50.96% 29.38% 19.66%+0.59 +12.5 2
1981-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-332.1 1044 1159 19.66% 29.38% 50.96%-0.59 -12.5 2
1981-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 2-345.8 981 1171 15.48% 27.93% 56.60%-0.88 -3.3 0
1981-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-245.8 1171 981 56.60% 27.93% 15.48%+0.88 +3.3 4
1981-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-047.1 1078 1064 38.26% 30.60% 31.14%+0.10 -0.3 3
1981-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.1 1064 1078 31.14% 30.60% 38.26%-0.10 +0.3 3
1981-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-035.3 1109 1080 40.31% 30.53% 29.17%+0.17 +17.0 4
1981-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-335.3 1080 1109 29.17% 30.53% 40.31%-0.17 -17.0 3
1981-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-145.8 1031 959 45.94% 30.10% 23.97%+0.38 -8.7 2
1981-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-045.8 959 1031 23.97% 30.10% 45.94%-0.38 +8.7 2
1981-05-22 Breidablik D 1-152.3 856 1051 15.17% 27.81% 57.02%-0.90 +1.8 1
1981-05-22 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-152.3 1051 856 57.02% 27.81% 15.17%+0.90 -1.8 4
1981-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-140.0 968 977 34.97% 30.64% 34.39%-0.01 +20.9 4
1981-05-29 @ KA Akureyri L 1-540.0 977 968 34.39% 30.64% 34.97%+0.01 -20.8 0
1981-05-30 IA Akranes D 0-047.2 1049 1126 26.13% 30.23% 43.64%-0.33 +0.8 5
1981-05-30 @ Breidablik D 0-047.2 1126 1049 43.64% 30.23% 26.13%+0.33 -0.8 5
1981-05-30 Thor Akureyri L 0-149.3 1077 858 61.28% 26.59% 12.13%+1.09 -11.1 3
1981-05-30 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-049.3 858 1077 12.13% 26.59% 61.28%-1.09 +11.1 3
1981-05-30 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1063 1023 41.93% 30.44% 27.63%+0.23 -0.6 4
1981-05-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-151.5 1023 1063 27.63% 30.44% 41.93%-0.23 +0.5 3
1981-05-31 Valur Reykjavik W 3-256.1 1064 1174 22.43% 29.75% 47.82%-0.49 +8.0 5
1981-05-31 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-356.1 1174 1064 47.82% 29.75% 22.43%+0.49 -8.0 4
1981-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-235.3 956 1063 22.83% 29.82% 47.35%-0.47 -9.7 0
1981-06-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-035.3 1063 956 47.35% 29.82% 22.83%+0.47 +9.7 6
1981-06-03 Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.2 1125 1066 44.31% 30.26% 25.44%+0.32 -0.8 6
1981-06-03 @ IA Akranes D 0-047.2 1066 1125 25.44% 30.26% 44.31%-0.32 +0.8 4
1981-06-03 KA Akureyri D 0-047.9 1166 989 57.49% 27.85% 14.67%+0.89 -2.0 5
1981-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.9 989 1166 14.67% 27.85% 57.49%-0.89 +2.0 5
1981-06-04 Breidablik L 1-343.7 1023 1050 32.49% 30.61% 36.90%-0.09 -11.0 3
1981-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-143.7 1050 1023 36.90% 30.61% 32.49%+0.09 +11.0 7
1981-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-330.0 869 1072 14.61% 27.57% 57.82%-0.94 -9.6 3
1981-06-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-030.0 1072 869 57.82% 27.57% 14.61%+0.94 +9.6 7
1981-06-06 Valur Reykjavik L 0-435.2 1125 1164 30.77% 30.55% 38.68%-0.15 -23.1 6
1981-06-06 @ IA Akranes W 4-035.2 1164 1125 38.68% 30.55% 30.77%+0.15 +23.1 7
1981-06-08 KA Akureyri D 1-151.8 860 991 20.38% 29.37% 50.25%-0.59 +1.2 4
1981-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-151.8 991 860 50.25% 29.37% 20.38%+0.59 -1.2 6
1981-06-12 IA Akranes D 0-048.3 861 1102 12.31% 26.39% 61.29%-1.12 +2.3 5
1981-06-12 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-048.3 1102 861 61.29% 26.39% 12.31%+1.12 -2.3 7
1981-06-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-047.4 1061 947 50.91% 29.39% 19.70%+0.59 -1.4 8
1981-06-13 @ Breidablik D 0-047.4 947 1061 19.70% 29.39% 50.91%-0.59 +1.4 1
1981-06-13 Valur Reykjavik W 1-046.4 1073 1188 21.95% 29.67% 48.38%-0.52 +9.1 8
1981-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-146.4 1188 1073 48.38% 29.67% 21.95%+0.52 -9.1 7
1981-06-14 KA Akureyri W 2-143.6 1082 989 48.38% 29.79% 21.83%+0.48 +4.7 9
1981-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-243.6 989 1082 21.83% 29.79% 48.38%-0.48 -4.7 6
1981-06-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-036.4 1067 1012 43.77% 30.30% 25.93%+0.30 +10.8 6
1981-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-236.4 1012 1067 25.93% 30.30% 43.77%-0.30 -10.8 3
1981-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 5-144.3 948 1078 20.51% 29.39% 50.10%-0.59 +27.9 3
1981-06-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-544.3 1078 948 50.10% 29.39% 20.51%+0.59 -27.8 6
1981-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-143.6 1099 1087 38.10% 30.61% 31.30%+0.10 -7.5 7
1981-06-20 @ IA Akranes W 1-043.6 1087 1099 31.30% 30.61% 38.10%-0.10 +7.5 11
1981-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-045.8 985 1082 23.84% 29.96% 46.19%-0.43 +8.7 8
1981-06-20 @ KA Akureyri L 0-145.8 1082 985 46.19% 29.96% 23.84%+0.43 -8.7 8
1981-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-244.1 993 1094 23.44% 29.91% 46.65%-0.45 -5.0 8
1981-06-20 @ KA Akureyri W 2-144.1 1094 993 46.65% 29.91% 23.44%+0.45 +5.0 13
1981-06-20 Thor Akureyri D 0-047.6 1001 863 53.49% 28.87% 17.63%+0.70 -1.6 4
1981-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-047.6 863 1001 17.63% 28.87% 53.49%-0.70 +1.6 6
1981-06-21 Breidablik D 0-047.5 1179 1060 51.39% 29.30% 19.31%+0.61 -1.5 8
1981-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.5 1060 1179 19.31% 29.30% 51.39%-0.61 +1.5 9
1981-06-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-138.6 865 976 22.34% 29.73% 47.93%-0.50 -5.1 6
1981-06-23 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-038.6 976 865 47.93% 29.73% 22.34%+0.50 +5.1 5
1981-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-041.0 1099 1073 39.95% 30.54% 29.50%+0.16 +6.3 15
1981-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-141.0 1073 1099 29.50% 30.54% 39.95%-0.16 -6.3 8
1981-06-24 KA Akureyri W 3-033.6 1061 988 46.00% 30.09% 23.91%+0.39 +14.7 11
1981-06-24 @ Breidablik L 0-333.6 988 1061 23.91% 30.09% 46.00%-0.39 -14.7 8
1981-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.9 1050 1177 20.76% 29.44% 49.80%-0.57 +1.2 7
1981-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.9 1177 1050 49.80% 29.44% 20.76%+0.57 -1.2 9
1981-06-24 KR Reykjavik D 0-047.3 1092 1000 48.33% 29.80% 21.88%+0.48 -1.2 8
1981-06-24 @ IA Akranes D 0-047.3 1000 1092 21.88% 29.80% 48.33%-0.48 +1.2 5
1981-06-27 IA Akranes L 0-432.4 981 1090 22.52% 29.77% 47.71%-0.49 -18.3 5
1981-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-032.4 1090 981 47.71% 29.77% 22.52%+0.49 +18.3 10
1981-06-27 Breidablik L 1-247.8 1067 1076 35.02% 30.64% 34.34%-0.01 -6.7 8
1981-06-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-147.8 1076 1067 34.34% 30.64% 35.02%+0.01 +6.7 13
1981-06-27 Thor Akureyri W 6-129.1 1176 860 69.01% 23.11% 7.88%+1.56 +6.8 11
1981-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-629.1 860 1176 7.88% 23.11% 69.01%-1.56 -6.8 6
1981-06-28 Fram Reykjavik L 0-139.9 974 1051 26.06% 30.23% 43.72%-0.33 -5.7 8
1981-06-28 @ KA Akureyri W 1-039.9 1051 974 43.72% 30.23% 26.06%+0.33 +5.7 9
1981-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-244.0 1001 1105 23.04% 29.85% 47.12%-0.46 -4.9 5
1981-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-144.0 1105 1001 47.12% 29.85% 23.04%+0.46 +4.9 17
1981-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.5 963 996 31.66% 30.58% 37.75%-0.12 +0.2 6
1981-07-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-151.5 996 963 37.75% 30.58% 31.66%+0.12 -0.2 6
1981-07-04 Fram Reykjavik D 3-360.4 1060 1057 36.77% 30.63% 32.60%+0.05 -0.1 9
1981-07-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-360.4 1057 1060 32.60% 30.63% 36.77%-0.05 +0.1 10
1981-07-05 IA Akranes L 0-242.5 1183 1109 46.15% 30.07% 23.78%+0.39 -16.5 11
1981-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-042.5 1109 1183 23.78% 30.07% 46.15%-0.39 +16.5 12
1981-07-06 Thor Akureyri D 1-151.8 968 853 50.99% 29.37% 19.64%+0.59 -1.3 9
1981-07-06 @ KA Akureyri D 1-151.8 853 968 19.64% 29.37% 50.99%-0.59 +1.3 7
1981-07-06 Breidablik D 0-047.1 1110 1083 40.17% 30.53% 29.30%+0.17 -0.5 18
1981-07-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-047.1 1083 1110 29.30% 30.53% 40.17%-0.17 +0.5 14
1981-07-15 Valur Reykjavik L 0-233.2 996 1166 16.98% 28.46% 54.56%-0.78 -7.6 6
1981-07-15 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-033.2 1166 996 54.56% 28.46% 16.98%+0.78 +7.6 13
1981-07-16 Breidablik W 3-145.0 1057 1083 32.64% 30.61% 36.75%-0.09 +12.0 12
1981-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-345.0 1083 1057 36.75% 30.61% 32.64%+0.09 -12.0 14
1981-07-18 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-257.2 963 1110 18.95% 29.03% 52.02%-0.67 +1.0 7
1981-07-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-257.2 1110 963 52.02% 29.03% 18.95%+0.67 -1.0 19
1981-07-18 KA Akureyri L 0-148.2 1125 967 55.57% 28.38% 16.05%+0.80 -10.2 12
1981-07-18 @ IA Akranes W 1-048.2 967 1125 16.05% 28.38% 55.57%-0.80 +10.2 11
1981-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-434.6 854 1060 14.44% 27.49% 58.07%-0.95 -8.0 7
1981-07-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-134.6 1060 854 58.07% 27.49% 14.44%+0.95 +8.0 11
1981-07-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.4 977 988 34.75% 30.64% 34.61%-0.02 +0.0 12
1981-07-24 @ KA Akureyri D 1-151.4 988 977 34.61% 30.64% 34.75%+0.02 +0.0 7
1981-07-25 Thor Akureyri D 3-361.7 1071 846 61.76% 26.41% 11.83%+1.12 -1.3 15
1981-07-25 @ Breidablik D 3-361.7 846 1071 11.83% 26.41% 61.76%-1.12 +1.3 8
1981-07-25 IA Akranes L 1-246.2 1068 1115 29.81% 30.51% 39.68%-0.19 -6.0 11
1981-07-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.2 1115 1068 39.68% 30.51% 29.81%+0.19 +6.0 14
1981-07-26 Fram Reykjavik L 1-346.5 1109 1069 41.79% 30.45% 27.76%+0.23 -13.2 19
1981-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-146.5 1069 1109 27.76% 30.45% 41.79%-0.23 +13.2 14
1981-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-140.0 1174 964 60.44% 26.90% 12.67%+1.04 +2.9 15
1981-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-240.0 964 1174 12.67% 26.90% 60.44%-1.04 -2.9 7
1981-07-29 Breidablik D 3-360.6 1121 1070 43.28% 30.34% 26.37%+0.28 -0.4 15
1981-07-29 @ IA Akranes D 3-360.6 1070 1121 26.37% 30.34% 43.28%-0.28 +0.4 16
1981-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-341.8 988 1062 26.48% 30.27% 43.25%-0.32 -9.4 7
1981-07-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-141.8 1062 988 43.25% 30.27% 26.48%+0.32 +9.5 13
1981-07-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-239.9 848 1082 12.66% 26.60% 60.75%-1.09 -2.9 8
1981-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-139.9 1082 848 60.75% 26.60% 12.66%+1.09 +2.9 16
1981-07-30 KA Akureyri L 2-352.2 961 977 34.06% 30.63% 35.30%-0.04 -6.2 7
1981-07-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-252.2 977 961 35.30% 30.63% 34.06%+0.04 +6.2 14
1981-07-30 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-244.5 1177 1096 47.03% 29.97% 23.00%+0.43 +7.6 17
1981-07-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-444.5 1096 1177 23.00% 29.97% 47.03%-0.43 -7.6 19
1981-08-07 Valur Reykjavik W 3-042.9 983 1184 14.75% 27.63% 57.62%-0.93 +28.9 16
1981-08-07 @ KA Akureyri L 0-342.9 1184 983 57.62% 27.63% 14.75%+0.93 -28.8 17
1981-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-251.5 1070 979 48.26% 29.81% 21.93%+0.48 -8.5 16
1981-08-08 @ Breidablik W 2-151.5 979 1070 21.93% 29.81% 48.26%-0.48 +8.5 9
1981-08-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-136.7 1071 955 51.14% 29.35% 19.51%+0.60 +10.5 15
1981-08-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-436.7 955 1071 19.51% 29.35% 51.14%-0.60 -10.5 7
1981-08-08 Thor Akureyri W 3-028.3 1088 845 63.33% 25.79% 10.88%+1.21 +7.2 21
1981-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-328.3 845 1088 10.88% 25.79% 63.33%-1.21 -7.2 8
1981-08-09 IA Akranes D 1-151.5 1085 1121 31.34% 30.57% 38.08%-0.13 +0.2 17
1981-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1121 1085 38.08% 30.57% 31.34%+0.13 -0.2 16
1981-08-16 Breidablik L 1-243.5 944 1062 21.73% 29.63% 48.64%-0.53 -4.7 7
1981-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-143.5 1062 944 48.64% 29.63% 21.73%+0.53 +4.7 18
1981-08-16 Thor Akureyri W 3-134.8 1120 837 66.50% 24.37% 9.13%+1.40 +3.6 18
1981-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-334.8 837 1120 9.13% 24.37% 66.50%-1.40 -3.6 8
1981-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-242.4 1155 1082 46.10% 30.08% 23.82%+0.39 -16.5 17
1981-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-042.4 1082 1155 23.82% 30.08% 46.10%-0.39 +16.5 17
1981-08-17 Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.3 987 1085 23.73% 29.95% 46.32%-0.43 +1.0 10
1981-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-047.3 1085 987 46.32% 29.95% 23.73%+0.43 -1.0 18
1981-08-19 IA Akranes L 2-641.2 1095 1124 32.28% 30.60% 37.11%-0.10 -16.9 21
1981-08-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 6-241.2 1124 1095 37.11% 30.60% 32.28%+0.10 +16.9 20
1981-08-20 Valur Reykjavik W 5-142.5 1066 1139 26.61% 30.28% 43.11%-0.31 +24.6 20
1981-08-20 @ Breidablik L 1-542.5 1139 1066 43.11% 30.28% 26.61%+0.31 -24.6 17
1981-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-138.5 1084 940 54.16% 28.72% 17.12%+0.73 +6.7 20
1981-08-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-338.5 940 1084 17.12% 28.72% 54.16%-0.73 -6.7 7
1981-08-20 KA Akureyri W 1-038.7 1098 1012 47.65% 29.89% 22.46%+0.45 +5.1 19
1981-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-138.7 1012 1098 22.46% 29.89% 47.65%-0.45 -5.1 16
1981-08-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-152.6 834 988 18.30% 28.86% 52.85%-0.70 +9.2 10
1981-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-252.6 988 834 52.85% 28.86% 18.30%+0.70 -9.2 10
1981-09-02 Thor Akureyri L 0-340.7 933 843 48.09% 29.83% 22.08%+0.47 -24.8 7
1981-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-040.7 843 933 22.08% 29.83% 48.09%-0.47 +24.8 12
1981-09-02 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-249.2 1103 1078 39.83% 30.55% 29.62%+0.16 -7.3 19
1981-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-149.2 1078 1103 29.62% 30.55% 39.83%-0.16 +7.3 23
1981-09-02 Breidablik W 3-039.8 1007 1091 25.30% 30.15% 44.55%-0.37 +23.2 18
1981-09-02 @ KA Akureyri L 0-339.8 1091 1007 44.55% 30.15% 25.30%+0.37 -23.2 20
1981-09-02 Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.1 1114 1091 39.59% 30.56% 29.85%+0.15 -0.4 18
1981-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.1 1091 1114 29.85% 30.56% 39.59%-0.15 +0.4 21
1981-09-03 IA Akranes W 2-152.8 979 1141 17.68% 28.68% 53.64%-0.74 +9.3 12
1981-09-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-252.8 1141 979 53.64% 28.68% 17.68%+0.74 -9.3 20
1981-09-11 Valur Reykjavik L 1-239.5 868 1114 12.02% 26.22% 61.77%-1.14 -2.7 12
1981-09-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-139.5 1114 868 61.77% 26.22% 12.02%+1.14 +2.7 20
1981-09-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.3 1068 1096 32.30% 30.60% 37.09%-0.10 +7.4 22
1981-09-12 @ Breidablik L 0-143.3 1096 1068 37.09% 30.60% 32.30%+0.10 -7.4 19
1981-09-12 KA Akureyri W 2-036.2 1091 1030 44.55% 30.24% 25.21%+0.33 +10.5 23
1981-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-236.2 1030 1091 25.21% 30.24% 44.55%-0.33 -10.5 18
1981-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-136.3 1131 908 61.61% 26.47% 11.92%+1.11 +4.7 22
1981-09-12 @ IA Akranes L 1-336.3 908 1131 11.92% 26.47% 61.61%-1.11 -4.7 7
1981-09-13 KR Reykjavik W 2-034.9 1086 988 48.95% 29.71% 21.34%+0.50 +9.2 25
1981-09-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-234.9 988 1086 21.34% 29.71% 48.95%-0.50 -9.2 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1981-05-30 12.13% Thor Akureyri 858 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1077 0
2 1981-08-07 14.75% @ KA Akureyri 983 3 Valur Reykjavik 1184 0
3 1981-07-18 16.05% KA Akureyri 967 1 @ IA Akranes 1125 0
4 1981-09-03 17.68% @ KR Reykjavik 979 2 IA Akranes 1141 1
5 1981-08-20 18.30% @ Thor Akureyri 834 2 KR Reykjavik 988 1
6 1981-06-20 20.51% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 948 5 Fram Reykjavik 1078 1
7 1981-08-08 21.93% KR Reykjavik 979 2 @ Breidablik 1070 1
8 1981-06-13 21.95% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1073 1 Valur Reykjavik 1188 0
9 1981-09-02 22.08% Thor Akureyri 843 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 933 0
10 1981-05-31 22.43% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1064 3 Valur Reykjavik 1174 2
11 1981-07-05 23.78% IA Akranes 1109 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1183 0
12 1981-08-16 23.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1082 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1155 0
13 1981-06-20 23.84% @ KA Akureyri 985 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1082 0
14 1981-05-21 23.97% KA Akureyri 959 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1031 0
15 1981-09-02 25.30% @ KA Akureyri 1007 3 Breidablik 1091 0
16 1981-08-20 26.61% @ Breidablik 1066 5 Valur Reykjavik 1139 1
17 1981-07-26 27.76% Fram Reykjavik 1069 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1109 1
18 1981-09-02 29.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 1078 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1103 1
19 1981-06-20 31.30% Vikingur Reykjavik 1087 1 @ IA Akranes 1099 0
20 1981-09-12 32.30% @ Breidablik 1068 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1096 0
21 1981-07-16 32.64% @ Fram Reykjavik 1057 3 Breidablik 1083 1
22 1981-05-08 33.15% @ Breidablik 1044 1 Vikingur Reykjavik 1066 0
23 1981-06-27 34.34% Breidablik 1076 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1067 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-08-07 28.85 @ KA Akureyri 3 983 14.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1184 57.62% 27.63%
2 1981-06-20 27.85 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 948 20.51% Fram Reykjavik 1 1078 50.10% 29.39%
3 1981-09-02 24.75 Thor Akureyri 3 843 22.08% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 933 48.09% 29.83%
4 1981-08-20 24.64 @ Breidablik 5 1066 26.61% Valur Reykjavik 1 1139 43.11% 30.28%
5 1981-09-02 23.23 @ KA Akureyri 3 1007 25.30% Breidablik 0 1091 44.55% 30.15%
6 1981-06-06 23.13 Valur Reykjavik 4 1164 38.68% @ IA Akranes 0 1125 30.77% 30.55%
7 1981-05-29 20.85 @ KA Akureyri 5 968 34.97% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 977 34.39% 30.64%
8 1981-06-27 18.27 IA Akranes 4 1090 47.71% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 981 22.52% 29.77%
9 1981-05-20 17.04 @ IA Akranes 3 1109 40.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1080 29.17% 30.53%
10 1981-08-19 16.93 IA Akranes 6 1124 37.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1095 32.28% 30.60%
11 1981-07-05 16.47 IA Akranes 2 1109 23.78% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1183 46.15% 30.07%
12 1981-08-16 16.46 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1082 23.82% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1155 46.10% 30.08%
13 1981-06-24 14.69 @ Breidablik 3 1061 46.00% KA Akureyri 0 988 23.91% 30.09%
14 1981-07-26 13.18 Fram Reykjavik 3 1069 27.76% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1109 41.79% 30.45%
15 1981-05-16 12.55 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1159 50.96% KR Reykjavik 0 1044 19.66% 29.38%
16 1981-07-16 11.97 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1057 32.64% Breidablik 1 1083 36.75% 30.61%
17 1981-05-10 11.50 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1032 41.17% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 997 28.35% 30.48%
18 1981-05-30 11.13 Thor Akureyri 1 858 12.13% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1077 61.28% 26.59%
19 1981-06-04 10.98 Breidablik 3 1050 36.90% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1023 32.49% 30.61%
20 1981-06-15 10.75 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1067 43.77% KR Reykjavik 0 1012 25.93% 30.30%
21 1981-09-12 10.53 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1091 44.55% KA Akureyri 0 1030 25.21% 30.24%
22 1981-08-08 10.51 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1071 51.14% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 955 19.51% 29.35%
23 1981-07-18 10.23 KA Akureyri 1 967 16.05% @ IA Akranes 0 1125 55.57% 28.38%
24 1981-06-03 9.74 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1063 47.35% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 956 22.83% 29.82%
25 1981-06-05 9.61 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1072 57.82% @ Thor Akureyri 0 869 14.61% 27.57%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-07-25 61.7 @ Breidablik 3 1071 61.76% Thor Akureyri 3 846 11.83% 26.41%
2 1981-07-29 60.6 @ IA Akranes 3 1121 43.28% Breidablik 3 1070 26.37% 30.34%
3 1981-07-04 60.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1060 36.77% Fram Reykjavik 3 1057 32.60% 30.63%
4 1981-07-18 57.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 963 18.95% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1110 52.02% 29.03%
5 1981-05-31 56.1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1064 22.43% Valur Reykjavik 2 1174 47.82% 29.75%
6 1981-09-03 52.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 979 17.68% IA Akranes 1 1141 53.64% 28.68%
7 1981-08-20 52.6 @ Thor Akureyri 2 834 18.30% KR Reykjavik 1 988 52.85% 28.86%
8 1981-05-22 52.3 @ Thor Akureyri 1 856 15.17% Breidablik 1 1051 57.02% 27.81%
9 1981-07-30 52.2 KA Akureyri 3 977 35.30% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 961 34.06% 30.63%
10 1981-06-24 51.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1050 20.76% Valur Reykjavik 1 1177 49.80% 29.44%
11 1981-06-08 51.8 @ Thor Akureyri 1 860 20.38% KA Akureyri 1 991 50.25% 29.37%
12 1981-07-06 51.8 @ KA Akureyri 1 968 50.99% Thor Akureyri 1 853 19.64% 29.37%
13 1981-05-09 51.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1078 37.01% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1073 32.36% 30.63%
14 1981-05-15 51.5 @ Breidablik 1 1051 32.53% Fram Reykjavik 1 1078 36.86% 30.61%
15 1981-05-30 51.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1063 41.93% KR Reykjavik 1 1023 27.63% 30.44%
16 1981-07-04 51.5 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 963 31.66% KR Reykjavik 1 996 37.75% 30.58%
17 1981-08-08 51.5 KR Reykjavik 2 979 21.93% @ Breidablik 1 1070 48.26% 29.81%
18 1981-08-09 51.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1085 31.34% IA Akranes 1 1121 38.08% 30.57%
19 1981-07-24 51.4 @ KA Akureyri 1 977 34.75% KR Reykjavik 1 988 34.61% 30.64%
20 1981-05-30 49.3 Thor Akureyri 1 858 12.13% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1077 61.28% 26.59%
21 1981-09-02 49.2 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1078 29.62% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1103 39.83% 30.55%
22 1981-06-12 48.3 @ Thor Akureyri 0 861 12.31% IA Akranes 0 1102 61.29% 26.39%
23 1981-07-18 48.2 KA Akureyri 1 967 16.05% @ IA Akranes 0 1125 55.57% 28.38%
24 1981-06-03 47.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1166 57.49% KA Akureyri 0 989 14.67% 27.85%
25 1981-06-27 47.8 Breidablik 2 1076 34.34% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1067 35.02% 30.64%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-08-08 28.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1088 63.33% Thor Akureyri 0 845 10.88% 25.79%
2 1981-06-27 29.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1176 69.01% Thor Akureyri 1 860 7.88% 23.11%
3 1981-06-05 30.0 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1072 57.82% @ Thor Akureyri 0 869 14.61% 27.57%
4 1981-05-16 32.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1159 50.96% KR Reykjavik 0 1044 19.66% 29.38%
5 1981-06-27 32.4 IA Akranes 4 1090 47.71% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 981 22.52% 29.77%
6 1981-07-15 33.2 Valur Reykjavik 2 1166 54.56% @ KR Reykjavik 0 996 16.98% 28.46%
7 1981-06-24 33.6 @ Breidablik 3 1061 46.00% KA Akureyri 0 988 23.91% 30.09%
8 1981-05-16 33.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1073 60.45% Thor Akureyri 1 863 12.66% 26.89%
9 1981-07-18 34.6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1060 58.07% @ Thor Akureyri 1 854 14.44% 27.49%
10 1981-08-16 34.8 @ IA Akranes 3 1120 66.50% Thor Akureyri 1 837 9.13% 24.37%
11 1981-09-13 34.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1086 48.95% KR Reykjavik 0 988 21.34% 29.71%
12 1981-06-06 35.2 Valur Reykjavik 4 1164 38.68% @ IA Akranes 0 1125 30.77% 30.55%
13 1981-05-20 35.3 @ IA Akranes 3 1109 40.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1080 29.17% 30.53%
14 1981-06-03 35.3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1063 47.35% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 956 22.83% 29.82%
15 1981-09-12 36.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1091 44.55% KA Akureyri 0 1030 25.21% 30.24%
16 1981-09-12 36.3 @ IA Akranes 3 1131 61.61% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 908 11.92% 26.47%
17 1981-06-15 36.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1067 43.77% KR Reykjavik 0 1012 25.93% 30.30%
18 1981-08-08 36.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1071 51.14% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 955 19.51% 29.35%
19 1981-05-10 37.2 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1032 41.17% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 997 28.35% 30.48%
20 1981-05-16 37.6 IA Akranes 1 1105 51.39% @ KA Akureyri 0 964 19.46% 29.16%
21 1981-08-20 38.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1084 54.16% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 940 17.12% 28.72%
22 1981-06-23 38.6 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 976 47.93% @ Thor Akureyri 0 865 22.34% 29.73%
23 1981-08-20 38.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1098 47.65% KA Akureyri 0 1012 22.46% 29.89%
24 1981-09-11 39.5 Valur Reykjavik 2 1114 61.77% @ Thor Akureyri 1 868 12.02% 26.22%
25 1981-09-02 39.8 @ KA Akureyri 3 1007 25.30% Breidablik 0 1091 44.55% 30.15%