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1981 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

FH Hafnarfjordur

7 pts

Thor Akureyri · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

4.91 points above expected

25 points · 20.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FH Hafnarfjordur

7.29 points below expected

7 points · 14.29 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 11 3 4 25 30 23 +7 20.09 +4.91
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 9 2 23 24 17 +7 19.70 +3.30
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 22 29 17 +12 21.73 +0.27
4 Breidablik 18 7 8 3 22 27 20 +7 19.23 +2.77
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 20 30 24 +6 23.68 -3.68
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 3 7 19 29 21 +8 19.57 -0.57
7 KA Akureyri 18 7 4 7 18 22 18 +4 15.12 +2.88
8 KR Reykjavik 18 3 6 9 12 13 25 -12 16.28 -4.28
9 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 3 6 9 12 18 35 -17 10.32 +1.68
10 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 2 3 13 7 20 42 -22 14.29 -7.29

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1152 22 21.73 +0.27 57.9% 10 16 19 22 24 27 33
Valur Reykjavik 1132 20 23.68 -3.68 15.9% 10 18 22 24 26 29 34
Fram Reykjavik 1118 23 19.70 +3.30 86.8% 8 14 17 20 22 25 32
Vikingur Reykjavik 1111 25 20.09 +4.91 94.4% 8 14 18 20 22 26 32
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1104 19 19.57 -0.57 48.6% 5 14 17 20 22 25 32
Breidablik 1091 22 19.23 +2.77 82.7% 6 14 17 19 22 25 33
KA Akureyri 1035 18 15.12 +2.88 83.9% 4 10 13 15 17 21 27
KR Reykjavik 995 12 16.28 -4.28 13.3% 3 11 14 16 19 22 29
FH Hafnarfjordur 920 7 14.29 -7.29 1.9% 4 9 12 14 17 20 28
Thor Akureyri 883 12 10.32 +1.68 75.7% 1 5 8 10 12 16 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KR TA VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.18
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
3.16
0-2-0
4.09
1-1-0
1.97
1-1-0
2.49
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
1.83
 —
1-0-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
2.67
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-2
1.39
0-1-1
1.88
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
3.71
 —
0-2-0
2.31
0-2-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
4.18
0-2-0
2.12
1-1-0
2.59
IA Akranes
0-2-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.84
0-2-0
3.08
 —
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.78
0-1-1
3.64
1-1-0
4.33
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.77
2-0-0
3.54
0-2-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.38
 —
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
1.97
0-0-2
2.69
KA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.08
2-0-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
1.64
1-0-1
1.99
 —
1-1-0
2.37
0-2-0
3.61
1-1-0
1.44
0-0-2
1.95
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
1.77
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
3.02
 —
0-1-1
3.75
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
1.93
Thor Akureyri
0-2-0
1.36
1-0-1
1.94
1-0-1
1.28
0-1-1
1.16
0-0-2
1.37
0-2-0
1.80
1-1-0
1.67
 —
0-0-2
1.10
0-0-2
1.31
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.43
2-0-0
4.06
0-2-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
3.43
0-1-1
4.01
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
4.41
 —
1-0-1
3.44
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.52
2-0-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.48
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
1.96
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.60 +7.7
Allowed 0.70 -5.9
Differential 0.88 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%7.22%4.44%4.44%1.11%—30.56%
17.22%11.11%7.78%3.89%1.67%2.22%33.89%
24.44%7.78%1.11%1.67%0.56%0.56%16.11%
34.44%3.89%1.67%3.33%——13.33%
41.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
5+—2.22%0.56%———2.78%
Total30.56%33.89%16.11%13.33%3.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.87
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%——5.56%——27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%5.56%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.11 +0.39
SD 1.42 1.18 1.61
CV 0.95 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.33 -1.22
SD 1.18 1.33 1.90
CV 1.06 0.57 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%————27.78%
15.56%22.22%———5.56%33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%50.00%—5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.94 +0.39
SD 1.14 1.26 1.46
CV 0.85 1.33 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%——5.56%—38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.75 1.16 1.97
CV 1.09 1.23 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
211.11%—————11.11%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4—16.67%————16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.17 +0.44
SD 1.42 0.92 1.76
CV 0.88 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
116.67%16.67%11.11%———44.44%
2———————
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.00 +0.22
SD 1.40 0.91 1.80
CV 1.14 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
1—16.67%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.39 -0.67
SD 0.75 1.04 1.33
CV 1.04 0.75 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%55.56%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%11.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.91 1.70 1.92
CV 0.91 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
1—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.78 1.37 2.35
CV 1.07 1.03 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
25.56%27.78%5.56%—5.56%5.56%50.00%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.28 +0.39
SD 0.97 1.64 1.75
CV 0.58 1.28 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 25 20.09 +4.91
2 Fram Reykjavik 23 19.70 +3.30
3 KA Akureyri 18 15.12 +2.88
4 Breidablik 22 19.23 +2.77
5 Thor Akureyri 12 10.32 +1.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 7 14.29 -7.29
2 KR Reykjavik 12 16.28 -4.28
3 Valur Reykjavik 20 23.68 -3.68
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 19.57 -0.57
5 IA Akranes 22 21.73 +0.27

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 May 31 – Jun 28 1 in 581
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 29 – Aug 20 1 in 40
3 Thor Akureyri 2 Aug 20 – Sep 2 1 in 24
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 16 – Jul 29 1 in 18
5 KA Akureyri 2 May 21 – May 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 7 Jul 27 – Sep 12 1 in 254
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 7 – Aug 20 1 in 107
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 20 – Jun 27 1 in 31
4 KA Akureyri 3 Jun 20 – Jun 28 1 in 23
5 KR Reykjavik 2 May 16 – May 21 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 11 Jun 24 – Sep 12 1 in 75
2 Breidablik 10 May 8 – Jul 6 1 in 67
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 May 14 – Jul 18 1 in 42
4 KA Akureyri 5 Jul 6 – Aug 7 1 in 15
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 8 – Jun 20 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 12 May 16 – Jul 29 1 in 91
2 IA Akranes 6 May 30 – Jun 24 1 in 37
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 10 Jun 27 – Sep 12 1 in 17
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 6 – Aug 8 1 in 15
5 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 9 – Jun 3 1 in 14

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik10.33%13.73%16.40%15.97%14.59%12.23%8.74%5.04%2.45%0.52%
Fram Reykjavik8.75%12.28%15.08%16.34%15.08%13.23%9.27%6.20%2.91%0.86%
IA Akranes22.13%22.92%17.63%13.11%10.06%6.63%4.15%2.34%0.89%0.14%
Breidablik6.79%11.19%12.84%14.67%16.07%14.37%11.66%7.72%3.67%1.02%
Valur Reykjavik42.39%22.82%14.43%8.74%5.84%3.46%1.48%0.65%0.14%0.05%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar7.81%12.36%14.74%16.22%15.35%13.35%9.89%6.45%3.02%0.81%
KA Akureyri0.63%1.51%3.08%4.98%7.52%12.40%18.08%22.41%20.79%8.60%
KR Reykjavik0.92%2.38%4.15%6.78%10.22%14.34%19.61%20.03%16.08%5.49%
Thor Akureyri—0.05%0.07%0.28%0.62%1.40%3.27%8.23%20.51%65.57%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.25%0.76%1.58%2.91%4.65%8.59%13.85%20.93%29.54%16.94%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.22%
No Edge
36.67%28.89%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.
207 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.69 * Some Luck: 2.69 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.37 * Wild Swing: 5.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.89 * Off: 1.89 to 2.52 * Way Off: 2.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.67 * A Surprise: 0.67 to 1.08 * Several Surprises: 1.08 to 1.48 * Many Surprises: 1.48 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.73 points
Some Luck
03.368
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.584
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.40%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.92%
FH Hafnarfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.37
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Strong Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.78
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.81% 0.19%
IA Akranes 98.97% 1.03%
Vikingur Reykjavik 97.03% 2.97%
Fram Reykjavik 96.23% 3.77%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 96.17% 3.83%
Breidablik 95.31% 4.69%
KR Reykjavik 78.43% 21.57%
KA Akureyri 70.61% 29.39%
FH Hafnarfjordur 53.52% 46.48%
Thor Akureyri 13.92% 86.08%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1981-05-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1060 1082 33.2% 30.6% 36.2% +7.2 2
1981-05-08 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1082 1060 36.2% 30.6% 33.2% -7.2 0
1981-05-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1094 1089 37.0% 30.6% 32.3% -0.2 1
1981-05-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1089 1094 32.3% 30.6% 37.0% +0.2 1
1981-05-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1048 1013 41.1% 30.5% 28.4% +11.5 2
1981-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1013 1048 28.4% 30.5% 41.1% -11.5 0
1981-05-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1074 1002 46.0% 30.1% 23.9% +5.0 2
1981-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1002 1074 23.9% 30.1% 46.0% -5.1 0
1981-05-15 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1067 1094 32.6% 30.6% 36.8% +0.1 3
1981-05-15 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1094 1067 36.8% 30.6% 32.6% -0.1 2
1981-05-16 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1089 882 60.2% 27.0% 12.8% +7.2 3
1981-05-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 882 1089 12.8% 27.0% 60.2% -7.2 0
1981-05-16 IA Akranes L 0-1 979 1120 19.5% 29.2% 51.4% -4.5 0
1981-05-16 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1120 979 51.4% 29.2% 19.5% +4.5 2
1981-05-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1174 1059 50.9% 29.4% 19.7% +12.6 2
1981-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1059 1174 19.7% 29.4% 50.9% -12.5 2
1981-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 997 1187 15.5% 27.9% 56.6% -3.3 0
1981-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1187 997 56.6% 27.9% 15.5% +3.3 4
1981-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1093 1080 38.3% 30.6% 31.1% -0.3 3
1981-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1080 1093 31.1% 30.6% 38.3% +0.3 3
1981-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1125 1096 40.3% 30.5% 29.2% +17.0 4
1981-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1096 1125 29.2% 30.5% 40.3% -17.0 3
1981-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1047 975 46.0% 30.1% 23.9% -8.7 2
1981-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 975 1047 23.9% 30.1% 46.0% +8.7 2
1981-05-22 Breidablik D 1-1 875 1067 15.3% 27.9% 56.8% +1.7 1
1981-05-22 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1067 875 56.8% 27.9% 15.3% -1.7 4
1981-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-1 983 993 34.9% 30.6% 34.4% +20.9 4
1981-05-29 @ KA Akureyri L 1-5 993 983 34.4% 30.6% 34.9% -20.9 0
1981-05-30 IA Akranes D 0-0 1065 1142 26.2% 30.2% 43.6% +0.8 5
1981-05-30 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1142 1065 43.6% 30.2% 26.2% -0.8 5
1981-05-30 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1093 876 61.1% 26.7% 12.3% -11.1 3
1981-05-30 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 876 1093 12.3% 26.7% 61.1% +11.1 3
1981-05-30 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1079 1038 41.9% 30.4% 27.6% -0.5 4
1981-05-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1038 1079 27.6% 30.4% 41.9% +0.5 3
1981-05-31 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1080 1190 22.4% 29.8% 47.8% +8.0 5
1981-05-31 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1190 1080 47.8% 29.8% 22.4% -8.0 4
1981-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 972 1078 22.9% 29.8% 47.3% -9.8 0
1981-06-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1078 972 47.3% 29.8% 22.9% +9.7 6
1981-06-03 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1141 1082 44.3% 30.3% 25.5% -0.8 6
1981-06-03 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1082 1141 25.5% 30.3% 44.3% +0.8 4
1981-06-03 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1182 1004 57.5% 27.9% 14.7% -2.0 5
1981-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1004 1182 14.7% 27.9% 57.5% +2.0 5
1981-06-04 Breidablik L 1-3 1039 1066 32.5% 30.6% 36.9% -11.0 3
1981-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1066 1039 36.9% 30.6% 32.5% +11.0 7
1981-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 887 1088 14.8% 27.7% 57.6% -9.7 3
1981-06-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1088 887 57.6% 27.7% 14.8% +9.7 7
1981-06-06 Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1140 1180 30.8% 30.6% 38.7% -23.1 6
1981-06-06 @ IA Akranes W 4-0 1180 1140 38.7% 30.6% 30.8% +23.1 7
1981-06-08 KA Akureyri D 1-1 878 1006 20.6% 29.4% 50.0% +1.2 4
1981-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1006 878 50.0% 29.4% 20.6% -1.2 6
1981-06-12 IA Akranes D 0-0 879 1117 12.5% 26.5% 61.1% +2.3 5
1981-06-12 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1117 879 61.1% 26.5% 12.5% -2.3 7
1981-06-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1077 963 50.9% 29.4% 19.7% -1.4 8
1981-06-13 @ Breidablik D 0-0 963 1077 19.7% 29.4% 50.9% +1.4 1
1981-06-13 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1088 1203 21.9% 29.7% 48.4% +9.1 8
1981-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1203 1088 48.4% 29.7% 21.9% -9.1 7
1981-06-14 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1098 1005 48.4% 29.8% 21.8% +4.7 9
1981-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1005 1098 21.8% 29.8% 48.4% -4.7 6
1981-06-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1083 1028 43.8% 30.3% 25.9% +10.8 6
1981-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1028 1083 25.9% 30.3% 43.8% -10.8 3
1981-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 5-1 964 1094 20.5% 29.4% 50.1% +27.9 3
1981-06-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1094 964 50.1% 29.4% 20.5% -27.8 6
1981-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1115 1102 38.1% 30.6% 31.3% -7.5 7
1981-06-20 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1102 1115 31.3% 30.6% 38.1% +7.5 11
1981-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1000 1097 23.8% 30.0% 46.2% +8.7 8
1981-06-20 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1097 1000 46.2% 30.0% 23.8% -8.7 8
1981-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1009 1110 23.4% 29.9% 46.7% -5.0 8
1981-06-20 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1110 1009 46.7% 29.9% 23.4% +5.0 13
1981-06-20 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1017 881 53.2% 28.9% 17.8% -1.6 4
1981-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 881 1017 17.8% 28.9% 53.2% +1.6 6
1981-06-21 Breidablik D 0-0 1194 1076 51.4% 29.3% 19.3% -1.4 8
1981-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1076 1194 19.3% 29.3% 51.4% +1.5 9
1981-06-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 883 992 22.6% 29.8% 47.7% -5.1 6
1981-06-23 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 992 883 47.7% 29.8% 22.6% +5.1 5
1981-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1115 1089 40.0% 30.5% 29.5% +6.3 15
1981-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1089 1115 29.5% 30.5% 40.0% -6.3 8
1981-06-24 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1077 1004 46.0% 30.1% 23.9% +14.7 11
1981-06-24 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1004 1077 23.9% 30.1% 46.0% -14.7 8
1981-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1066 1193 20.8% 29.4% 49.8% +1.2 7
1981-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1193 1066 49.8% 29.4% 20.8% -1.2 9
1981-06-24 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1107 1015 48.3% 29.8% 21.9% -1.2 8
1981-06-24 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1015 1107 21.9% 29.8% 48.3% +1.2 5
1981-06-27 IA Akranes L 0-4 997 1106 22.6% 29.8% 47.7% -18.3 5
1981-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1106 997 47.7% 29.8% 22.6% +18.3 10
1981-06-27 Breidablik L 1-2 1082 1092 35.0% 30.6% 34.4% -6.7 8
1981-06-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1092 1082 34.4% 30.6% 35.0% +6.7 13
1981-06-27 Thor Akureyri W 6-1 1191 878 68.8% 23.2% 8.0% +6.8 11
1981-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-6 878 1191 8.0% 23.2% 68.8% -6.8 6
1981-06-28 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 989 1067 26.0% 30.2% 43.7% -5.7 8
1981-06-28 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1067 989 43.7% 30.2% 26.0% +5.7 9
1981-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1017 1121 23.0% 29.8% 47.1% -4.9 5
1981-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1121 1017 47.1% 29.8% 23.0% +4.9 17
1981-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 979 1012 31.7% 30.6% 37.7% +0.2 6
1981-07-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1012 979 37.7% 30.6% 31.7% -0.2 6
1981-07-04 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1076 1073 36.8% 30.6% 32.6% -0.1 9
1981-07-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-3 1073 1076 32.6% 30.6% 36.8% +0.1 10
1981-07-05 IA Akranes L 0-2 1198 1124 46.2% 30.1% 23.8% -16.5 11
1981-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1124 1198 23.8% 30.1% 46.2% +16.5 12
1981-07-06 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 984 871 50.7% 29.4% 19.9% -1.2 9
1981-07-06 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 871 984 19.9% 29.4% 50.7% +1.2 7
1981-07-06 Breidablik D 0-0 1126 1098 40.2% 30.5% 29.3% -0.5 18
1981-07-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1098 1126 29.3% 30.5% 40.2% +0.5 14
1981-07-15 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1011 1182 17.0% 28.5% 54.5% -7.6 6
1981-07-15 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1182 1011 54.5% 28.5% 17.0% +7.6 13
1981-07-16 Breidablik W 3-1 1073 1099 32.6% 30.6% 36.8% +12.0 12
1981-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1099 1073 36.8% 30.6% 32.6% -12.0 14
1981-07-18 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 979 1125 19.0% 29.0% 52.0% +1.0 7
1981-07-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1125 979 52.0% 29.0% 19.0% -1.0 19
1981-07-18 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1141 982 55.6% 28.4% 16.1% -10.2 12
1981-07-18 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 982 1141 16.1% 28.4% 55.6% +10.2 11
1981-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 872 1076 14.6% 27.6% 57.9% -8.1 7
1981-07-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1076 872 57.9% 27.6% 14.6% +8.1 11
1981-07-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 993 1004 34.7% 30.6% 34.6% +0.0 12
1981-07-24 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1004 993 34.6% 30.6% 34.7% +0.0 7
1981-07-25 Thor Akureyri D 3-3 1087 864 61.6% 26.5% 11.9% -1.3 15
1981-07-25 @ Breidablik D 3-3 864 1087 11.9% 26.5% 61.6% +1.3 8
1981-07-25 IA Akranes L 1-2 1084 1131 29.8% 30.5% 39.7% -6.0 11
1981-07-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1131 1084 39.7% 30.5% 29.8% +6.0 14
1981-07-26 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1124 1085 41.8% 30.4% 27.8% -13.2 19
1981-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1085 1124 27.8% 30.4% 41.8% +13.2 14
1981-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1189 980 60.4% 26.9% 12.7% +2.9 15
1981-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 980 1189 12.7% 26.9% 60.4% -2.9 7
1981-07-29 Breidablik D 3-3 1136 1086 43.2% 30.3% 26.4% -0.4 15
1981-07-29 @ IA Akranes D 3-3 1086 1136 26.4% 30.3% 43.2% +0.4 16
1981-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1004 1078 26.5% 30.3% 43.2% -9.5 7
1981-07-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1078 1004 43.2% 30.3% 26.5% +9.4 13
1981-07-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 865 1098 12.8% 26.7% 60.6% -2.9 8
1981-07-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1098 865 60.6% 26.7% 12.8% +2.9 16
1981-07-30 KA Akureyri L 2-3 977 993 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% -6.2 7
1981-07-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 993 977 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% +6.2 14
1981-07-30 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1192 1111 47.0% 30.0% 23.0% +7.6 17
1981-07-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1111 1192 23.0% 30.0% 47.0% -7.6 19
1981-08-07 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 999 1200 14.8% 27.6% 57.6% +28.9 16
1981-08-07 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1200 999 57.6% 27.6% 14.8% -28.8 17
1981-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1086 994 48.3% 29.8% 21.9% -8.5 16
1981-08-08 @ Breidablik W 2-1 994 1086 21.9% 29.8% 48.3% +8.6 9
1981-08-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1087 971 51.1% 29.3% 19.5% +10.5 15
1981-08-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 971 1087 19.5% 29.3% 51.1% -10.5 7
1981-08-08 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1104 862 63.2% 25.9% 11.0% +7.3 21
1981-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 862 1104 11.0% 25.9% 63.2% -7.3 8
1981-08-09 IA Akranes D 1-1 1101 1136 31.4% 30.6% 38.0% +0.2 17
1981-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1136 1101 38.0% 30.6% 31.4% -0.2 16
1981-08-16 Breidablik L 1-2 960 1077 21.7% 29.6% 48.6% -4.7 7
1981-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1077 960 48.6% 29.6% 21.7% +4.7 18
1981-08-16 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1136 855 66.3% 24.4% 9.2% +3.6 18
1981-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 855 1136 9.2% 24.4% 66.3% -3.6 8
1981-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1171 1098 46.1% 30.1% 23.8% -16.4 17
1981-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1098 1171 23.8% 30.1% 46.1% +16.4 17
1981-08-17 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1003 1101 23.7% 29.9% 46.3% +1.0 10
1981-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1101 1003 46.3% 29.9% 23.7% -1.0 18
1981-08-19 IA Akranes L 2-6 1111 1139 32.3% 30.6% 37.1% -16.9 21
1981-08-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 6-2 1139 1111 37.1% 30.6% 32.3% +16.9 20
1981-08-20 Valur Reykjavik W 5-1 1082 1155 26.6% 30.3% 43.1% +24.6 20
1981-08-20 @ Breidablik L 1-5 1155 1082 43.1% 30.3% 26.6% -24.6 17
1981-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1100 956 54.1% 28.7% 17.1% +6.7 20
1981-08-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 956 1100 17.1% 28.7% 54.1% -6.6 7
1981-08-20 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1114 1028 47.7% 29.9% 22.4% +5.1 19
1981-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1028 1114 22.4% 29.9% 47.7% -5.1 16
1981-08-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 852 1004 18.5% 28.9% 52.6% +9.2 10
1981-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1004 852 52.6% 28.9% 18.5% -9.2 10
1981-09-02 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 949 861 47.9% 29.9% 22.3% -24.7 7
1981-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 861 949 22.3% 29.9% 47.9% +24.6 12
1981-09-02 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1119 1094 39.8% 30.6% 29.6% -7.3 19
1981-09-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1094 1119 29.6% 30.6% 39.8% +7.3 23
1981-09-02 Breidablik W 3-0 1023 1107 25.3% 30.1% 44.6% +23.2 18
1981-09-02 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1107 1023 44.6% 30.1% 25.3% -23.2 20
1981-09-02 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1130 1107 39.6% 30.6% 29.9% -0.4 18
1981-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1107 1130 29.9% 30.6% 39.6% +0.4 21
1981-09-03 IA Akranes W 2-1 995 1156 17.7% 28.7% 53.6% +9.3 12
1981-09-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1156 995 53.6% 28.7% 17.7% -9.3 20
1981-09-11 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 885 1130 12.1% 26.3% 61.6% -2.8 12
1981-09-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1130 885 61.6% 26.3% 12.1% +2.8 20
1981-09-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1083 1112 32.3% 30.6% 37.1% +7.4 22
1981-09-12 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1112 1083 37.1% 30.6% 32.3% -7.4 19
1981-09-12 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1107 1046 44.6% 30.2% 25.2% +10.5 23
1981-09-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1046 1107 25.2% 30.2% 44.6% -10.5 18
1981-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1147 924 61.6% 26.5% 11.9% +4.7 22
1981-09-12 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 924 1147 11.9% 26.5% 61.6% -4.7 7
1981-09-13 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1101 1004 48.9% 29.7% 21.3% +9.2 25
1981-09-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1004 1101 21.3% 29.7% 48.9% -9.2 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1981-05-30 12.27% Thor Akureyri 876 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1093 0
2 1981-08-07 14.75% @ KA Akureyri 999 3 Valur Reykjavik 1200 0
3 1981-07-18 16.05% KA Akureyri 982 1 @ IA Akranes 1141 0
4 1981-09-03 17.69% @ KR Reykjavik 995 2 IA Akranes 1156 1
5 1981-08-20 18.46% @ Thor Akureyri 852 2 KR Reykjavik 1004 1
6 1981-06-20 20.52% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 964 5 Fram Reykjavik 1094 1
7 1981-08-08 21.92% KR Reykjavik 994 2 @ Breidablik 1086 1
8 1981-06-13 21.95% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1088 1 Valur Reykjavik 1203 0
9 1981-09-02 22.26% Thor Akureyri 861 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 949 0
10 1981-05-31 22.43% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1080 3 Valur Reykjavik 1190 2
11 1981-07-05 23.77% IA Akranes 1124 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1198 0
12 1981-08-16 23.83% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1098 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1171 0
13 1981-06-20 23.84% @ KA Akureyri 1000 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1097 0
14 1981-05-21 23.95% KA Akureyri 975 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1047 0
15 1981-09-02 25.28% @ KA Akureyri 1023 3 Breidablik 1107 0
16 1981-08-20 26.63% @ Breidablik 1082 5 Valur Reykjavik 1155 1
17 1981-07-26 27.77% Fram Reykjavik 1085 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1124 1
18 1981-09-02 29.63% Vikingur Reykjavik 1094 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1119 1
19 1981-06-20 31.32% Vikingur Reykjavik 1102 1 @ IA Akranes 1115 0
20 1981-09-12 32.32% @ Breidablik 1083 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1112 0
21 1981-07-16 32.63% @ Fram Reykjavik 1073 3 Breidablik 1099 1
22 1981-05-08 33.19% @ Breidablik 1060 1 Vikingur Reykjavik 1082 0
23 1981-06-27 34.37% Breidablik 1092 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1082 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-08-07 28.85 @ KA Akureyri 3 999 14.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1200 57.63% 27.63%
2 1981-06-20 27.85 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 964 20.52% Fram Reykjavik 1 1094 50.09% 29.39%
3 1981-09-02 24.66 Thor Akureyri 3 861 22.26% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 949 47.88% 29.86%
4 1981-08-20 24.63 @ Breidablik 5 1082 26.63% Valur Reykjavik 1 1155 43.09% 30.28%
5 1981-09-02 23.24 @ KA Akureyri 3 1023 25.28% Breidablik 0 1107 44.58% 30.14%
6 1981-06-06 23.13 Valur Reykjavik 4 1180 38.69% @ IA Akranes 0 1140 30.76% 30.55%
7 1981-05-29 20.88 @ KA Akureyri 5 983 34.91% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 993 34.45% 30.64%
8 1981-06-27 18.30 IA Akranes 4 1106 47.67% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 997 22.56% 29.77%
9 1981-05-20 17.05 @ IA Akranes 3 1125 40.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1096 29.18% 30.53%
10 1981-08-19 16.94 IA Akranes 6 1139 37.09% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1111 32.31% 30.60%
11 1981-07-05 16.47 IA Akranes 2 1124 23.77% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1198 46.16% 30.07%
12 1981-08-16 16.45 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1098 23.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1171 46.09% 30.08%
13 1981-06-24 14.67 @ Breidablik 3 1077 46.04% KA Akureyri 0 1004 23.88% 30.08%
14 1981-07-26 13.18 Fram Reykjavik 3 1085 27.77% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1124 41.79% 30.45%
15 1981-05-16 12.56 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1174 50.94% KR Reykjavik 0 1059 19.67% 29.38%
16 1981-07-16 11.98 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1073 32.63% Breidablik 1 1099 36.76% 30.61%
17 1981-05-10 11.50 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1048 41.13% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1013 28.38% 30.48%
18 1981-05-30 11.10 Thor Akureyri 1 876 12.27% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1093 61.06% 26.67%
19 1981-06-04 10.98 Breidablik 3 1066 36.92% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1039 32.47% 30.61%
20 1981-06-15 10.75 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1083 43.78% KR Reykjavik 0 1028 25.92% 30.30%
21 1981-08-08 10.53 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1087 51.12% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 971 19.53% 29.35%
22 1981-09-12 10.53 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1107 44.57% KA Akureyri 0 1046 25.20% 30.23%
23 1981-07-18 10.23 KA Akureyri 1 982 16.05% @ IA Akranes 0 1141 55.57% 28.38%
24 1981-06-03 9.75 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1078 47.32% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 972 22.86% 29.82%
25 1981-06-05 9.72 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1088 57.57% @ Thor Akureyri 0 887 14.79% 27.65%