1981 Úrvalsdeild Season
90 games · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Vikingur Reykjavik
25 points
Relegated
No relegation
Biggest Overachiever
Vikingur Reykjavik
5.39 points above expected
25 points · 19.61 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
FH Hafnarfjordur
7.94 points below expected
7 points · 14.94 expected points
League Table
The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 19.6 | +5.39 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 19.1 | +3.93 |
| 3 | IA Akranes | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 21.0 | +1.04 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 18.6 | +3.40 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 22.4 | -2.38 |
| 6 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 19.2 | -0.17 |
| 7 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 16.2 | +1.78 |
| 8 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 16.5 | -4.48 |
| 9 | Thor Akureyri | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 12.6 | -0.57 |
| 10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 14.9 | -7.94 |
Form
Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)
League Race
Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA Akranes | 1130 | 22 | 20.96 | +1.04 | 67.9% | 8 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 32 |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1118 | 20 | 22.38 | -2.38 | 27.1% | 9 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 33 |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1098 | 25 | 19.61 | +5.39 | 96.5% | 7 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 32 |
| Fram Reykjavik | 1098 | 23 | 19.07 | +3.93 | 91.4% | 7 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1093 | 19 | 19.17 | -0.17 | 53.4% | 6 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| Breidablik | 1076 | 22 | 18.60 | +3.40 | 88.2% | 7 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 32 |
| KA Akureyri | 1042 | 18 | 16.22 | +1.78 | 75.7% | 5 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 28 |
| KR Reykjavik | 1004 | 12 | 16.48 | -4.48 | 11.0% | 4 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 28 |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 948 | 7 | 14.94 | -7.94 | 0.8% | 4 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 29 |
| Thor Akureyri | 933 | 12 | 12.57 | -0.57 | 49.5% | 2 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 25 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
| Team | BRE | FH | FR | IA | IV | KA | KR | TA | VR | VR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | — |
1-1-0
3.27
|
0-1-1
2.59
|
0-2-0
2.17
|
2-0-0
2.49
|
1-0-1
2.97
|
1-0-1
2.93
|
0-2-0
3.59
|
1-1-0
2.03
|
1-1-0
2.40
|
| FH Hafnarfjordur |
0-1-1
1.99
|
— |
1-0-1
1.89
|
0-0-2
1.75
|
0-0-2
1.97
|
0-0-2
2.47
|
0-1-1
2.40
|
1-0-1
3.04
|
0-0-2
1.63
|
0-1-1
1.99
|
| Fram Reykjavik |
1-1-0
2.62
|
1-0-1
3.40
|
— |
0-2-0
2.28
|
0-2-0
2.57
|
2-0-0
2.95
|
1-1-0
3.06
|
1-0-1
3.69
|
0-2-0
2.14
|
1-1-0
2.49
|
| IA Akranes |
0-2-0
3.06
|
2-0-0
3.59
|
0-2-0
2.95
|
— |
2-0-0
2.85
|
1-0-1
3.40
|
0-1-1
3.40
|
1-1-0
3.93
|
1-0-1
2.30
|
1-0-1
2.74
|
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar |
0-0-2
2.72
|
2-0-0
3.29
|
0-2-0
2.63
|
0-0-2
2.37
|
— |
1-0-1
3.10
|
1-1-0
2.99
|
2-0-0
3.61
|
2-0-0
2.08
|
0-0-2
2.60
|
| KA Akureyri |
1-0-1
2.25
|
2-0-0
2.74
|
0-0-2
2.27
|
1-0-1
1.89
|
1-0-1
2.14
|
— |
1-1-0
2.48
|
0-2-0
3.25
|
1-1-0
1.72
|
0-0-2
2.13
|
| KR Reykjavik |
1-0-1
2.29
|
1-1-0
2.81
|
0-1-1
2.17
|
1-1-0
1.89
|
0-1-1
2.23
|
0-1-1
2.74
|
— |
0-1-1
3.31
|
0-0-2
1.86
|
0-0-2
2.01
|
| Thor Akureyri |
0-2-0
1.75
|
1-0-1
2.19
|
1-0-1
1.67
|
0-1-1
1.50
|
0-0-2
1.73
|
0-2-0
2.01
|
1-1-0
1.96
|
— |
0-0-2
1.42
|
0-0-2
1.66
|
| Valur Reykjavik |
0-1-1
3.23
|
2-0-0
3.74
|
0-2-0
3.10
|
1-0-1
2.92
|
0-0-2
3.17
|
0-1-1
3.61
|
2-0-0
3.44
|
2-0-0
4.05
|
— |
1-0-1
3.17
|
| Vikingur Reykjavik |
0-1-1
2.81
|
1-1-0
3.28
|
0-1-1
2.73
|
1-0-1
2.47
|
2-0-0
2.62
|
2-0-0
3.10
|
2-0-0
3.25
|
2-0-0
3.71
|
1-0-1
2.07
|
— |
Goal Differential vs Points
Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33% | 7.22% | 4.44% | 4.44% | 1.11% | — | 30.56% |
| 1 | 7.22% | 11.11% | 7.78% | 3.89% | 1.67% | 2.22% | 33.89% |
| 2 | 4.44% | 7.78% | 1.11% | 1.67% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 16.11% |
| 3 | 4.44% | 3.89% | 1.67% | 3.33% | — | — | 13.33% |
| 4 | 1.11% | 1.67% | 0.56% | — | — | — | 3.33% |
| 5+ | — | 2.22% | 0.56% | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| Total | 30.56% | 33.89% | 16.11% | 13.33% | 3.33% | 2.78% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.34 |
| Mean allowed | 1.34 |
| StdDev scored | 1.32 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.32 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.69 |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | -0.005 |
| Sample size (games) | 90 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.22% | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 3 | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | 11.11% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 38.89% | 33.33% | 5.56% | 22.22% | — | — | 100% |
Breidablik — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.50 |
| Mean allowed | 1.11 |
| StdDev scored | 1.42 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.18 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.61 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.244 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.56% | — | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | 27.78% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 5.56% | 16.67% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | 50.00% |
| 2 | — | — | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 11.11% | 11.11% | 33.33% | 27.78% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 100% |
FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.11 |
| Mean allowed | 2.33 |
| StdDev scored | 1.18 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.33 |
| Mean total goals/game | 3.44 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.137 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.22% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 27.78% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 22.22% | — | — | — | 5.56% | 33.33% |
| 2 | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | — | 16.67% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 38.89% | 50.00% | — | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 100% |
Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.33 |
| Mean allowed | 0.94 |
| StdDev scored | 1.14 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.26 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.28 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.260 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.22% | 11.11% | — | — | 5.56% | — | 38.89% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 2 | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 3 | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 4 | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 5+ | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 44.44% | 33.33% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | 100% |
IA Akranes — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.61 |
| Mean allowed | 0.94 |
| StdDev scored | 1.75 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.16 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.56 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.133 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 16.67% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 11.11% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 38.89% |
| 2 | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 3 | — | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | 16.67% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 22.22% | 50.00% | 16.67% | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.61 |
| Mean allowed | 1.17 |
| StdDev scored | 1.42 |
| StdDev allowed | 0.92 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.78 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.082 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.56% | 16.67% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 1 | 16.67% | 16.67% | 11.11% | — | — | — | 44.44% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 33.33% | 38.89% | 22.22% | 5.56% | — | — | 100% |
KA Akureyri — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.22 |
| Mean allowed | 1.00 |
| StdDev scored | 1.40 |
| StdDev allowed | 0.91 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.22 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.186 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 5.56% | 16.67% | 5.56% | — | — | 44.44% |
| 1 | — | 16.67% | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | — | 38.89% |
| 2 | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 22.22% | 33.33% | 27.78% | 16.67% | — | — | 100% |
KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 0.72 |
| Mean allowed | 1.39 |
| StdDev scored | 0.75 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.04 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.11 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.080 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | 11.11% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 16.67% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 55.56% |
| 2 | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 3 | 5.56% | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 22.22% | 27.78% | 11.11% | 22.22% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 100% |
Thor Akureyri — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.00 |
| Mean allowed | 1.94 |
| StdDev scored | 0.91 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.70 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.94 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.000 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 5.56% | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | — | 38.89% |
| 1 | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 5.56% | 11.11% |
| 2 | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 3 | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 5+ | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 33.33% | 27.78% | 22.22% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | 100% |
Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.67 |
| Mean allowed | 1.33 |
| StdDev scored | 1.78 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.37 |
| Mean total goals/game | 3.00 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.096 |
| Games played | 18 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 1 | 11.11% | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 2 | 5.56% | 27.78% | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | 50.00% |
| 3 | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 38.89% | 33.33% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 5.56% | 5.56% | 100% |
Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.67 |
| Mean allowed | 1.28 |
| StdDev scored | 0.97 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.64 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.94 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.173 |
| Games played | 18 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 25 | 19.6 | +5.39 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 23 | 19.1 | +3.93 |
| 3 | Breidablik | 22 | 18.6 | +3.40 |
| 4 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 16.2 | +1.78 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 21.0 | +1.04 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 7 | 14.9 | -7.94 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 12 | 16.5 | -4.48 |
| 3 | Valur Reykjavik | 20 | 22.4 | -2.38 |
| 4 | Thor Akureyri | 12 | 12.6 | -0.57 |
| 5 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 19 | 19.2 | -0.17 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 7 | May 31 – Jun 28 | 1 in 1,657 |
| 2 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 4 | Jul 29 – Aug 20 | 1 in 66 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 3 | Jul 16 – Jul 29 | 1 in 27 |
| 4 | Thor Akureyri | 2 | Aug 20 – Sep 2 | 1 in 21 |
| 5 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 2 | Jun 20 – Jun 23 | 1 in 13 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 7 | Jul 27 – Sep 12 | 1 in 492 |
| 2 | Valur Reykjavik | 3 | Aug 7 – Aug 20 | 1 in 108 |
| 3 | KA Akureyri | 3 | Jun 20 – Jun 28 | 1 in 54 |
| 4 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 3 | Jun 20 – Jun 27 | 1 in 42 |
| 5 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 2 | Jul 26 – Jul 30 | 1 in 10 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fram Reykjavik | 11 | Jun 24 – Sep 12 | 1 in 47 |
| 2 | Breidablik | 10 | May 8 – Jul 6 | 1 in 42 |
| 3 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 11 | May 14 – Jul 18 | 1 in 28 |
| 4 | KA Akureyri | 5 | Jul 6 – Aug 7 | 1 in 9 |
| 5 | Thor Akureyri | 3 | Jun 8 – Jun 20 | 1 in 6 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavik | 12 | May 16 – Jul 29 | 1 in 46 |
| 2 | IA Akranes | 6 | May 30 – Jun 24 | 1 in 20 |
| 3 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 10 | Jun 27 – Sep 12 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | Thor Akureyri | 12 | Jun 5 – Aug 16 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Breidablik | 5 | Jul 6 – Aug 8 | 1 in 9 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmap
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 11.66% | 14.55% | 14.19% | 15.29% | 13.23% | 10.77% | 8.97% | 6.27% | 3.70% | 1.37% |
| Fram Reykjavik | 8.94% | 12.07% | 13.56% | 14.24% | 13.56% | 12.78% | 10.44% | 7.34% | 4.83% | 2.24% |
| IA Akranes | 22.32% | 21.18% | 16.85% | 12.02% | 9.90% | 7.36% | 4.95% | 3.30% | 1.50% | 0.62% |
| Breidablik | 6.86% | 10.25% | 11.69% | 13.49% | 14.25% | 14.01% | 12.15% | 8.80% | 5.92% | 2.58% |
| Valur Reykjavik | 36.93% | 21.36% | 15.34% | 10.19% | 6.91% | 4.37% | 2.68% | 1.52% | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 9.30% | 12.56% | 14.36% | 14.86% | 13.67% | 11.72% | 9.83% | 7.36% | 4.60% | 1.74% |
| KA Akureyri | 1.61% | 3.28% | 5.79% | 7.51% | 10.08% | 13.22% | 15.89% | 17.28% | 15.80% | 9.54% |
| KR Reykjavik | 1.62% | 3.02% | 5.28% | 7.41% | 10.44% | 12.89% | 15.93% | 17.99% | 16.09% | 9.33% |
| Thor Akureyri | 0.08% | 0.33% | 0.69% | 1.17% | 2.13% | 3.98% | 6.29% | 12.02% | 22.85% | 50.46% |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0.68% | 1.40% | 2.25% | 3.82% | 5.83% | 8.90% | 12.87% | 18.12% | 24.21% | 21.92% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Points Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
No Trend Data Yet
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Same level | Direct relegation |
|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| IA Akranes | 97.9% | 2.1% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| Fram Reykjavik | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| Breidablik | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| KA Akureyri | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| KR Reykjavik | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Thor Akureyri | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Overall Game Log
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981-05-08 | Vikingur Reykjavik | W 1-0 | 1049 | 1071 | 28.7% | 39.6% | 31.8% | +5.2 | 3 |
| 1981-05-08 | @ Breidablik | L 0-1 | 1071 | 1049 | 31.8% | 39.6% | 28.7% | -5.2 | 0 |
| 1981-05-09 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | D 1-1 | 1075 | 1076 | 31.7% | 39.6% | 28.7% | -0.1 | 1 |
| 1981-05-09 | @ Fram Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1076 | 1075 | 28.7% | 39.6% | 31.7% | +0.1 | 1 |
| 1981-05-10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 2-0 | 1046 | 1021 | 35.4% | 39.2% | 25.4% | +8.6 | 3 |
| 1981-05-10 | @ KR Reykjavik | L 0-2 | 1021 | 1046 | 25.4% | 39.2% | 35.4% | -8.6 | 0 |
| 1981-05-14 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 2-1 | 1066 | 1012 | 39.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | +3.9 | 3 |
| 1981-05-14 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1012 | 1066 | 22.3% | 38.1% | 39.6% | -3.9 | 0 |
| 1981-05-15 | Fram Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1054 | 1075 | 28.9% | 39.6% | 31.5% | +0.1 | 4 |
| 1981-05-15 | @ Breidablik | D 1-1 | 1075 | 1054 | 31.5% | 39.6% | 28.9% | -0.1 | 2 |
| 1981-05-16 | Thor Akureyri | W 4-1 | 1076 | 953 | 49.7% | 33.1% | 17.2% | +7.4 | 4 |
| 1981-05-16 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 1-4 | 953 | 1076 | 17.2% | 33.1% | 49.7% | -7.4 | 0 |
| 1981-05-16 | IA Akranes | L 0-1 | 1011 | 1102 | 21.3% | 36.9% | 41.9% | -3.9 | 0 |
| 1981-05-16 | @ KA Akureyri | W 1-0 | 1102 | 1011 | 41.9% | 36.9% | 21.3% | +3.9 | 3 |
| 1981-05-16 | KR Reykjavik | W 3-0 | 1135 | 1054 | 43.5% | 36.5% | 20.0% | +10.3 | 3 |
| 1981-05-16 | @ Valur Reykjavik | L 0-3 | 1054 | 1135 | 20.0% | 36.5% | 43.5% | -10.3 | 3 |
| 1981-05-20 | Valur Reykjavik | L 2-3 | 1009 | 1145 | 18.1% | 33.2% | 48.7% | -3.0 | 0 |
| 1981-05-20 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 3-2 | 1145 | 1009 | 48.7% | 33.2% | 18.1% | +3.0 | 6 |
| 1981-05-20 | Vikingur Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1075 | 1070 | 32.5% | 39.6% | 27.9% | -0.1 | 3 |
| 1981-05-20 | @ Fram Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1070 | 1075 | 27.9% | 39.6% | 32.5% | +0.1 | 4 |
| 1981-05-20 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 3-0 | 1106 | 1084 | 35.1% | 39.3% | 25.7% | +12.5 | 6 |
| 1981-05-20 | @ IA Akranes | L 0-3 | 1084 | 1106 | 25.7% | 39.3% | 35.1% | -12.5 | 4 |
| 1981-05-21 | KA Akureyri | L 0-1 | 1044 | 1008 | 37.1% | 38.9% | 24.1% | -5.8 | 3 |
| 1981-05-21 | @ KR Reykjavik | W 1-0 | 1008 | 1044 | 24.1% | 38.9% | 37.1% | +5.8 | 3 |
| 1981-05-22 | Breidablik | D 1-1 | 946 | 1054 | 19.9% | 35.6% | 44.5% | +0.7 | 1 |
| 1981-05-22 | @ Thor Akureyri | D 1-1 | 1054 | 946 | 44.5% | 35.6% | 19.9% | -0.7 | 5 |
| 1981-05-29 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 5-1 | 1013 | 1006 | 32.9% | 39.6% | 27.5% | +14.3 | 6 |
| 1981-05-29 | @ KA Akureyri | L 1-5 | 1006 | 1013 | 27.5% | 39.6% | 32.9% | -14.3 | 0 |
| 1981-05-30 | IA Akranes | D 0-0 | 1054 | 1119 | 23.6% | 38.3% | 38.1% | +0.5 | 6 |
| 1981-05-30 | @ Breidablik | D 0-0 | 1119 | 1054 | 38.1% | 38.3% | 23.6% | -0.5 | 7 |
| 1981-05-30 | Thor Akureyri | L 0-1 | 1075 | 946 | 50.4% | 32.6% | 17.0% | -7.0 | 3 |
| 1981-05-30 | @ Fram Reykjavik | W 1-0 | 946 | 1075 | 17.0% | 32.6% | 50.4% | +7.0 | 4 |
| 1981-05-30 | KR Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1071 | 1038 | 36.6% | 39.0% | 24.5% | -0.3 | 5 |
| 1981-05-30 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | D 1-1 | 1038 | 1071 | 24.5% | 39.0% | 36.6% | +0.3 | 4 |
| 1981-05-31 | Valur Reykjavik | W 3-2 | 1070 | 1148 | 22.4% | 37.6% | 40.0% | +5.4 | 7 |
| 1981-05-31 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 2-3 | 1148 | 1070 | 40.0% | 37.6% | 22.4% | -5.4 | 6 |
| 1981-06-03 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 0-2 | 991 | 1071 | 22.3% | 37.5% | 40.2% | -7.7 | 0 |
| 1981-06-03 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 2-0 | 1071 | 991 | 40.2% | 37.5% | 22.3% | +7.7 | 8 |
| 1981-06-03 | Fram Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1118 | 1068 | 39.1% | 38.2% | 22.6% | -0.5 | 8 |
| 1981-06-03 | @ IA Akranes | D 0-0 | 1068 | 1118 | 22.6% | 38.2% | 39.1% | +0.5 | 4 |
| 1981-06-03 | KA Akureyri | D 0-0 | 1143 | 1028 | 48.5% | 33.8% | 17.7% | -1.0 | 7 |
| 1981-06-03 | @ Valur Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1028 | 1143 | 17.7% | 33.8% | 48.5% | +1.0 | 7 |
| 1981-06-04 | Breidablik | L 1-3 | 1038 | 1054 | 29.6% | 39.6% | 30.8% | -8.2 | 4 |
| 1981-06-04 | @ KR Reykjavik | W 3-1 | 1054 | 1038 | 30.8% | 39.6% | 29.6% | +8.2 | 9 |
| 1981-06-05 | Vikingur Reykjavik | L 0-3 | 953 | 1076 | 19.0% | 34.5% | 46.5% | -9.6 | 4 |
| 1981-06-05 | @ Thor Akureyri | W 3-0 | 1076 | 953 | 46.5% | 34.5% | 19.0% | +9.6 | 10 |
| 1981-06-06 | Valur Reykjavik | L 0-4 | 1118 | 1142 | 28.4% | 39.5% | 32.0% | -17.5 | 8 |
| 1981-06-06 | @ IA Akranes | W 4-0 | 1142 | 1118 | 32.0% | 39.5% | 28.4% | +17.5 | 10 |
| 1981-06-08 | KA Akureyri | D 1-1 | 944 | 1029 | 21.8% | 37.2% | 41.0% | +0.5 | 5 |
| 1981-06-08 | @ Thor Akureyri | D 1-1 | 1029 | 944 | 41.0% | 37.2% | 21.8% | -0.5 | 8 |
| 1981-06-12 | IA Akranes | D 0-0 | 944 | 1100 | 17.1% | 31.4% | 51.5% | +1.2 | 6 |
| 1981-06-12 | @ Thor Akureyri | D 0-0 | 1100 | 944 | 51.5% | 31.4% | 17.1% | -1.1 | 9 |
| 1981-06-13 | FH Hafnarfjordur | D 0-0 | 1062 | 984 | 43.2% | 36.6% | 20.2% | -0.8 | 10 |
| 1981-06-13 | @ Breidablik | D 0-0 | 984 | 1062 | 20.2% | 36.6% | 43.2% | +0.7 | 1 |
| 1981-06-13 | Valur Reykjavik | W 1-0 | 1078 | 1159 | 22.1% | 37.5% | 40.4% | +6.1 | 11 |
| 1981-06-13 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 0-1 | 1159 | 1078 | 40.4% | 37.5% | 22.1% | -6.1 | 10 |
| 1981-06-14 | KA Akureyri | W 2-1 | 1085 | 1028 | 40.1% | 37.9% | 22.0% | +3.8 | 13 |
| 1981-06-14 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1028 | 1085 | 22.0% | 37.9% | 40.1% | -3.8 | 8 |
| 1981-06-15 | KR Reykjavik | W 2-0 | 1068 | 1030 | 37.3% | 38.8% | 23.9% | +8.2 | 7 |
| 1981-06-15 | @ Fram Reykjavik | L 0-2 | 1030 | 1068 | 23.9% | 38.8% | 37.3% | -8.2 | 4 |
| 1981-06-20 | Fram Reykjavik | W 5-1 | 984 | 1076 | 21.2% | 36.8% | 42.0% | +18.6 | 4 |
| 1981-06-20 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | L 1-5 | 1076 | 984 | 42.0% | 36.8% | 21.2% | -18.6 | 7 |
| 1981-06-20 | Vikingur Reykjavik | L 0-1 | 1099 | 1089 | 33.3% | 39.5% | 27.2% | -5.4 | 9 |
| 1981-06-20 | @ IA Akranes | W 1-0 | 1089 | 1099 | 27.2% | 39.5% | 33.3% | +5.4 | 16 |
| 1981-06-20 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 1-0 | 1024 | 1085 | 24.1% | 38.5% | 37.3% | +5.8 | 11 |
| 1981-06-20 | @ KA Akureyri | L 0-1 | 1085 | 1024 | 37.3% | 38.5% | 24.1% | -5.8 | 11 |
| 1981-06-20 | Vikingur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1030 | 1094 | 23.7% | 38.3% | 38.0% | -4.1 | 11 |
| 1981-06-20 | @ KA Akureyri | W 2-1 | 1094 | 1030 | 38.0% | 38.3% | 23.7% | +4.1 | 19 |
| 1981-06-20 | Thor Akureyri | D 0-0 | 1022 | 946 | 42.9% | 36.8% | 20.3% | -0.7 | 5 |
| 1981-06-20 | @ KR Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 946 | 1022 | 20.3% | 36.8% | 42.9% | +0.7 | 7 |
| 1981-06-21 | Breidablik | D 0-0 | 1153 | 1061 | 45.1% | 35.7% | 19.2% | -0.8 | 11 |
| 1981-06-21 | @ Valur Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1061 | 1153 | 19.2% | 35.7% | 45.1% | +0.8 | 11 |
| 1981-06-23 | FH Hafnarfjordur | L 0-1 | 946 | 1003 | 24.5% | 38.7% | 36.8% | -4.4 | 7 |
| 1981-06-23 | @ Thor Akureyri | W 1-0 | 1003 | 946 | 36.8% | 38.7% | 24.5% | +4.4 | 7 |
| 1981-06-23 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 1-0 | 1099 | 1079 | 34.7% | 39.3% | 26.0% | +4.6 | 22 |
| 1981-06-23 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 0-1 | 1079 | 1099 | 26.0% | 39.3% | 34.7% | -4.6 | 11 |
| 1981-06-24 | KA Akureyri | W 3-0 | 1062 | 1026 | 37.1% | 38.9% | 24.1% | +12.0 | 14 |
| 1981-06-24 | @ Breidablik | L 0-3 | 1026 | 1062 | 24.1% | 38.9% | 37.1% | -12.0 | 11 |
| 1981-06-24 | Valur Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1058 | 1153 | 21.0% | 36.6% | 42.4% | +0.6 | 8 |
| 1981-06-24 | @ Fram Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1153 | 1058 | 42.4% | 36.6% | 21.0% | -0.6 | 12 |
| 1981-06-24 | KR Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1094 | 1021 | 42.3% | 37.0% | 20.7% | -0.7 | 10 |
| 1981-06-24 | @ IA Akranes | D 0-0 | 1021 | 1094 | 20.7% | 37.0% | 42.3% | +0.7 | 6 |
| 1981-06-27 | IA Akranes | L 0-4 | 1007 | 1093 | 21.7% | 37.2% | 41.1% | -14.3 | 7 |
| 1981-06-27 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 4-0 | 1093 | 1007 | 41.1% | 37.2% | 21.7% | +14.3 | 13 |
| 1981-06-27 | Breidablik | L 1-2 | 1074 | 1074 | 31.8% | 39.6% | 28.6% | -4.9 | 11 |
| 1981-06-27 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 2-1 | 1074 | 1074 | 28.6% | 39.6% | 31.8% | +5.0 | 17 |
| 1981-06-27 | Thor Akureyri | W 6-1 | 1152 | 942 | 62.4% | 24.0% | 13.6% | +8.1 | 15 |
| 1981-06-27 | @ Valur Reykjavik | L 1-6 | 942 | 1152 | 13.6% | 24.0% | 62.4% | -8.1 | 7 |
| 1981-06-28 | Fram Reykjavik | L 0-1 | 1014 | 1058 | 25.9% | 39.1% | 35.0% | -4.6 | 11 |
| 1981-06-28 | @ KA Akureyri | W 1-0 | 1058 | 1014 | 35.0% | 39.1% | 25.9% | +4.6 | 11 |
| 1981-06-28 | Vikingur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1022 | 1103 | 22.1% | 37.5% | 40.4% | -3.8 | 6 |
| 1981-06-28 | @ KR Reykjavik | W 2-1 | 1103 | 1022 | 40.4% | 37.5% | 22.1% | +3.8 | 25 |
| 1981-07-04 | KR Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 993 | 1018 | 28.3% | 39.5% | 32.2% | +0.1 | 8 |
| 1981-07-04 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | D 1-1 | 1018 | 993 | 32.2% | 39.5% | 28.3% | -0.1 | 7 |
| 1981-07-04 | Fram Reykjavik | D 3-3 | 1069 | 1063 | 32.7% | 39.6% | 27.7% | -0.1 | 12 |
| 1981-07-04 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | D 3-3 | 1063 | 1069 | 27.7% | 39.6% | 32.7% | +0.1 | 12 |
| 1981-07-05 | IA Akranes | L 0-2 | 1160 | 1107 | 39.4% | 38.2% | 22.4% | -11.3 | 15 |
| 1981-07-05 | @ Valur Reykjavik | W 2-0 | 1107 | 1160 | 22.4% | 38.2% | 39.4% | +11.3 | 16 |
| 1981-07-06 | Thor Akureyri | D 1-1 | 1009 | 934 | 42.8% | 36.8% | 20.4% | -0.6 | 12 |
| 1981-07-06 | @ KA Akureyri | D 1-1 | 934 | 1009 | 20.4% | 36.8% | 42.8% | +0.6 | 8 |
| 1981-07-06 | Breidablik | D 0-0 | 1107 | 1079 | 35.8% | 39.1% | 25.1% | -0.3 | 26 |
| 1981-07-06 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1079 | 1107 | 25.1% | 39.1% | 35.8% | +0.3 | 18 |
| 1981-07-15 | Valur Reykjavik | L 0-2 | 1018 | 1149 | 18.4% | 33.8% | 47.8% | -6.4 | 7 |
| 1981-07-15 | @ KR Reykjavik | W 2-0 | 1149 | 1018 | 47.8% | 33.8% | 18.4% | +6.4 | 18 |
| 1981-07-16 | Breidablik | W 3-1 | 1063 | 1080 | 29.5% | 39.6% | 30.9% | +8.4 | 15 |
| 1981-07-16 | @ Fram Reykjavik | L 1-3 | 1080 | 1063 | 30.9% | 39.6% | 29.5% | -8.4 | 18 |
| 1981-07-18 | Vikingur Reykjavik | D 2-2 | 993 | 1107 | 19.6% | 35.2% | 45.2% | +0.6 | 9 |
| 1981-07-18 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | D 2-2 | 1107 | 993 | 45.2% | 35.2% | 19.6% | -0.6 | 27 |
| 1981-07-18 | KA Akureyri | L 0-1 | 1119 | 1009 | 47.8% | 34.2% | 18.0% | -6.8 | 16 |
| 1981-07-18 | @ IA Akranes | W 1-0 | 1009 | 1119 | 18.0% | 34.2% | 47.8% | +6.8 | 15 |
| 1981-07-18 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 1-4 | 934 | 1069 | 18.2% | 33.4% | 48.4% | -7.7 | 8 |
| 1981-07-18 | @ Thor Akureyri | W 4-1 | 1069 | 934 | 48.4% | 33.4% | 18.2% | +7.7 | 15 |
| 1981-07-24 | KR Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1016 | 1012 | 32.4% | 39.6% | 28.0% | -0.1 | 16 |
| 1981-07-24 | @ KA Akureyri | D 1-1 | 1012 | 1016 | 28.0% | 39.6% | 32.4% | +0.1 | 8 |
| 1981-07-25 | Thor Akureyri | D 3-3 | 1071 | 927 | 52.8% | 31.0% | 16.2% | -0.7 | 19 |
| 1981-07-25 | @ Breidablik | D 3-3 | 927 | 1071 | 16.2% | 31.0% | 52.8% | +0.7 | 9 |
| 1981-07-25 | IA Akranes | L 1-2 | 1077 | 1112 | 27.0% | 39.3% | 33.6% | -4.5 | 15 |
| 1981-07-25 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 2-1 | 1112 | 1077 | 33.6% | 39.3% | 27.0% | +4.5 | 19 |
| 1981-07-26 | Fram Reykjavik | L 1-3 | 1106 | 1072 | 36.8% | 38.9% | 24.3% | -9.4 | 27 |
| 1981-07-26 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | W 3-1 | 1072 | 1106 | 24.3% | 38.9% | 36.8% | +9.4 | 18 |
| 1981-07-27 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 2-1 | 1155 | 994 | 55.3% | 29.3% | 15.4% | +2.6 | 21 |
| 1981-07-27 | @ Valur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 994 | 1155 | 15.4% | 29.3% | 55.3% | -2.6 | 9 |
| 1981-07-29 | Breidablik | D 3-3 | 1116 | 1071 | 38.4% | 38.5% | 23.1% | -0.3 | 20 |
| 1981-07-29 | @ IA Akranes | D 3-3 | 1071 | 1116 | 23.1% | 38.5% | 38.4% | +0.3 | 20 |
| 1981-07-29 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 1-3 | 1012 | 1072 | 24.1% | 38.5% | 37.4% | -7.1 | 8 |
| 1981-07-29 | @ KR Reykjavik | W 3-1 | 1072 | 1012 | 37.4% | 38.5% | 24.1% | +7.1 | 18 |
| 1981-07-29 | Fram Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 927 | 1081 | 17.2% | 31.6% | 51.2% | -2.9 | 9 |
| 1981-07-29 | @ Thor Akureyri | W 2-1 | 1081 | 927 | 51.2% | 31.6% | 17.2% | +2.9 | 21 |
| 1981-07-30 | KA Akureyri | L 2-3 | 991 | 1015 | 28.4% | 39.5% | 32.0% | -4.4 | 9 |
| 1981-07-30 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 3-2 | 1015 | 991 | 32.0% | 39.5% | 28.4% | +4.4 | 19 |
| 1981-07-30 | Vikingur Reykjavik | W 4-2 | 1158 | 1097 | 40.6% | 37.7% | 21.6% | +5.9 | 24 |
| 1981-07-30 | @ Valur Reykjavik | L 2-4 | 1097 | 1158 | 21.6% | 37.7% | 40.6% | -5.9 | 27 |
| 1981-08-07 | Valur Reykjavik | W 3-0 | 1020 | 1164 | 17.7% | 32.6% | 49.7% | +19.0 | 22 |
| 1981-08-07 | @ KA Akureyri | L 0-3 | 1164 | 1020 | 49.7% | 32.6% | 17.7% | -19.0 | 24 |
| 1981-08-08 | KR Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1071 | 1005 | 41.4% | 37.4% | 21.2% | -5.8 | 20 |
| 1981-08-08 | @ Breidablik | W 2-1 | 1005 | 1071 | 21.2% | 37.4% | 41.4% | +5.8 | 11 |
| 1981-08-08 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 4-1 | 1080 | 987 | 45.2% | 35.6% | 19.1% | +8.3 | 21 |
| 1981-08-08 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 1-4 | 987 | 1080 | 19.1% | 35.6% | 45.2% | -8.3 | 9 |
| 1981-08-08 | Thor Akureyri | W 3-0 | 1091 | 924 | 56.0% | 28.8% | 15.2% | +7.3 | 30 |
| 1981-08-08 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 0-3 | 924 | 1091 | 15.2% | 28.8% | 56.0% | -7.4 | 9 |
| 1981-08-09 | IA Akranes | D 1-1 | 1084 | 1116 | 27.4% | 39.4% | 33.2% | +0.2 | 22 |
| 1981-08-09 | @ Fram Reykjavik | D 1-1 | 1116 | 1084 | 33.2% | 39.4% | 27.4% | -0.2 | 21 |
| 1981-08-16 | Breidablik | L 1-2 | 978 | 1065 | 21.6% | 37.1% | 41.2% | -3.8 | 9 |
| 1981-08-16 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 2-1 | 1065 | 978 | 41.2% | 37.1% | 21.6% | +3.8 | 23 |
| 1981-08-16 | Thor Akureyri | W 3-1 | 1116 | 917 | 60.8% | 25.2% | 14.0% | +3.8 | 24 |
| 1981-08-16 | @ IA Akranes | L 1-3 | 917 | 1116 | 14.0% | 25.2% | 60.8% | -3.8 | 9 |
| 1981-08-16 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 0-2 | 1145 | 1088 | 40.0% | 38.0% | 22.0% | -11.4 | 24 |
| 1981-08-16 | @ Valur Reykjavik | W 2-0 | 1088 | 1145 | 22.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | +11.4 | 24 |
| 1981-08-17 | Fram Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1011 | 1084 | 22.8% | 37.9% | 39.3% | +0.5 | 12 |
| 1981-08-17 | @ KR Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1084 | 1011 | 39.3% | 37.9% | 22.8% | -0.5 | 23 |
| 1981-08-19 | IA Akranes | L 2-6 | 1098 | 1120 | 28.8% | 39.6% | 31.6% | -12.5 | 30 |
| 1981-08-19 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | W 6-2 | 1120 | 1098 | 31.6% | 39.6% | 28.8% | +12.5 | 27 |
| 1981-08-20 | Valur Reykjavik | W 5-1 | 1069 | 1133 | 23.7% | 38.3% | 38.0% | +17.4 | 26 |
| 1981-08-20 | @ Breidablik | L 1-5 | 1133 | 1069 | 38.0% | 38.3% | 23.7% | -17.4 | 24 |
| 1981-08-20 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 3-1 | 1083 | 975 | 47.6% | 34.3% | 18.1% | +5.5 | 26 |
| 1981-08-20 | @ Fram Reykjavik | L 1-3 | 975 | 1083 | 18.1% | 34.3% | 47.6% | -5.5 | 9 |
| 1981-08-20 | KA Akureyri | W 1-0 | 1099 | 1039 | 40.6% | 37.8% | 21.7% | +4.0 | 27 |
| 1981-08-20 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | L 0-1 | 1039 | 1099 | 21.7% | 37.8% | 40.6% | -4.0 | 22 |
| 1981-08-20 | KR Reykjavik | W 2-1 | 913 | 1011 | 20.7% | 36.4% | 42.9% | +5.9 | 12 |
| 1981-08-20 | @ Thor Akureyri | L 1-2 | 1011 | 913 | 42.9% | 36.4% | 20.7% | -5.9 | 12 |
| 1981-09-02 | Thor Akureyri | L 0-3 | 969 | 919 | 39.0% | 38.3% | 22.7% | -16.3 | 9 |
| 1981-09-02 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | W 3-0 | 919 | 969 | 22.7% | 38.3% | 39.0% | +16.3 | 15 |
| 1981-09-02 | Vikingur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1103 | 1086 | 34.4% | 39.4% | 26.3% | -5.2 | 27 |
| 1981-09-02 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 2-1 | 1086 | 1103 | 26.3% | 39.4% | 34.4% | +5.2 | 33 |
| 1981-09-02 | Breidablik | W 3-0 | 1035 | 1086 | 25.1% | 38.9% | 36.0% | +15.5 | 25 |
| 1981-09-02 | @ KA Akureyri | L 0-3 | 1086 | 1035 | 36.0% | 38.9% | 25.1% | -15.5 | 26 |
| 1981-09-02 | Fram Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1116 | 1089 | 35.7% | 39.2% | 25.2% | -0.3 | 25 |
| 1981-09-02 | @ Valur Reykjavik | D 0-0 | 1089 | 1116 | 25.2% | 39.2% | 35.7% | +0.3 | 27 |
| 1981-09-03 | IA Akranes | W 2-1 | 1005 | 1132 | 18.7% | 34.1% | 47.2% | +6.3 | 15 |
| 1981-09-03 | @ KR Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 1132 | 1005 | 47.2% | 34.1% | 18.7% | -6.3 | 27 |
| 1981-09-11 | Valur Reykjavik | L 1-2 | 936 | 1115 | 16.0% | 29.0% | 55.1% | -2.6 | 15 |
| 1981-09-11 | @ Thor Akureyri | W 2-1 | 1115 | 936 | 55.1% | 29.0% | 16.0% | +2.6 | 28 |
| 1981-09-12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | W 1-0 | 1071 | 1098 | 28.0% | 39.5% | 32.5% | +5.3 | 29 |
| 1981-09-12 | @ Breidablik | L 0-1 | 1098 | 1071 | 32.5% | 39.5% | 28.0% | -5.3 | 27 |
| 1981-09-12 | KA Akureyri | W 2-0 | 1089 | 1050 | 37.5% | 38.7% | 23.8% | +8.2 | 30 |
| 1981-09-12 | @ Fram Reykjavik | L 0-2 | 1050 | 1089 | 23.8% | 38.7% | 37.5% | -8.2 | 25 |
| 1981-09-12 | FH Hafnarfjordur | W 3-1 | 1126 | 953 | 57.0% | 28.0% | 15.0% | +4.2 | 30 |
| 1981-09-12 | @ IA Akranes | L 1-3 | 953 | 1126 | 15.0% | 28.0% | 57.0% | -4.3 | 9 |
| 1981-09-13 | KR Reykjavik | W 2-0 | 1091 | 1011 | 43.3% | 36.6% | 20.1% | +7.1 | 36 |
| 1981-09-13 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | L 0-2 | 1011 | 1091 | 20.1% | 36.6% | 43.3% | -7.1 | 15 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1981-05-30 | 16.97% | Thor Akureyri | 946 | 1 | @ Fram Reykjavik | 1075 | 0 |
| 2 | 1981-08-07 | 17.69% | @ KA Akureyri | 1020 | 3 | Valur Reykjavik | 1164 | 0 |
| 3 | 1981-07-18 | 18.00% | KA Akureyri | 1009 | 1 | @ IA Akranes | 1119 | 0 |
| 4 | 1981-09-03 | 18.66% | @ KR Reykjavik | 1005 | 2 | IA Akranes | 1132 | 1 |
| 5 | 1981-08-20 | 20.72% | @ Thor Akureyri | 913 | 2 | KR Reykjavik | 1011 | 1 |
| 6 | 1981-06-20 | 21.18% | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 984 | 5 | Fram Reykjavik | 1076 | 1 |
| 7 | 1981-08-08 | 21.19% | KR Reykjavik | 1005 | 2 | @ Breidablik | 1071 | 1 |
| 8 | 1981-08-16 | 22.03% | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1088 | 2 | @ Valur Reykjavik | 1145 | 0 |
| 9 | 1981-06-13 | 22.14% | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1078 | 1 | Valur Reykjavik | 1159 | 0 |
| 10 | 1981-05-31 | 22.39% | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | 1070 | 3 | Valur Reykjavik | 1148 | 2 |
| 11 | 1981-07-05 | 22.43% | IA Akranes | 1107 | 2 | @ Valur Reykjavik | 1160 | 0 |
| 12 | 1981-09-02 | 22.69% | Thor Akureyri | 919 | 3 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 969 | 0 |
| 13 | 1981-08-20 | 23.72% | @ Breidablik | 1069 | 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 1133 | 1 |
| 14 | 1981-05-21 | 24.08% | KA Akureyri | 1008 | 1 | @ KR Reykjavik | 1044 | 0 |
| 15 | 1981-06-20 | 24.15% | @ KA Akureyri | 1024 | 1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1085 | 0 |
| 16 | 1981-07-26 | 24.28% | Fram Reykjavik | 1072 | 3 | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | 1106 | 1 |
| 17 | 1981-09-02 | 25.11% | @ KA Akureyri | 1035 | 3 | Breidablik | 1086 | 0 |
| 18 | 1981-09-02 | 26.26% | Vikingur Reykjavik | 1086 | 2 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1103 | 1 |
| 19 | 1981-06-20 | 27.20% | Vikingur Reykjavik | 1089 | 1 | @ IA Akranes | 1099 | 0 |
| 20 | 1981-09-12 | 28.01% | @ Breidablik | 1071 | 1 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1098 | 0 |
| 21 | 1981-06-27 | 28.57% | Breidablik | 1074 | 2 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1074 | 1 |
| 22 | 1981-05-08 | 28.68% | @ Breidablik | 1049 | 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 1071 | 0 |
| 23 | 1981-07-16 | 29.49% | @ Fram Reykjavik | 1063 | 3 | Breidablik | 1080 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1981-08-07 | 18.95 | @ KA Akureyri | 3 | 1020 | 17.69% | Valur Reykjavik | 0 | 1164 | 49.71% | |
| 2 | 1981-06-20 | 18.59 | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 5 | 984 | 21.18% | Fram Reykjavik | 1 | 1076 | 42.04% | |
| 3 | 1981-06-06 | 17.51 | Valur Reykjavik | 4 | 1142 | 32.01% | @ IA Akranes | 0 | 1118 | 28.45% | |
| 4 | 1981-08-20 | 17.42 | @ Breidablik | 5 | 1069 | 23.72% | Valur Reykjavik | 1 | 1133 | 37.95% | |
| 5 | 1981-09-02 | 16.34 | Thor Akureyri | 3 | 919 | 22.69% | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 0 | 969 | 39.03% | |
| 6 | 1981-09-02 | 15.50 | @ KA Akureyri | 3 | 1035 | 25.11% | Breidablik | 0 | 1086 | 36.03% | |
| 7 | 1981-06-27 | 14.34 | IA Akranes | 4 | 1093 | 41.10% | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 0 | 1007 | 21.72% | |
| 8 | 1981-05-29 | 14.30 | @ KA Akureyri | 5 | 1013 | 32.93% | FH Hafnarfjordur | 1 | 1006 | 27.51% | |
| 9 | 1981-05-20 | 12.54 | @ IA Akranes | 3 | 1106 | 35.08% | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 0 | 1084 | 25.65% | |
| 10 | 1981-08-19 | 12.47 | IA Akranes | 6 | 1120 | 31.64% | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | 2 | 1098 | 28.79% | |
| 11 | 1981-06-24 | 12.00 | @ Breidablik | 3 | 1062 | 37.07% | KA Akureyri | 0 | 1026 | 24.08% | |
| 12 | 1981-08-16 | 11.43 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2 | 1088 | 22.03% | @ Valur Reykjavik | 0 | 1145 | 40.03% | |
| 13 | 1981-07-05 | 11.33 | IA Akranes | 2 | 1107 | 22.43% | @ Valur Reykjavik | 0 | 1160 | 39.42% | |
| 14 | 1981-05-16 | 10.29 | @ Valur Reykjavik | 3 | 1135 | 43.52% | KR Reykjavik | 0 | 1054 | 19.99% | |
| 15 | 1981-06-05 | 9.62 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 3 | 1076 | 46.50% | @ Thor Akureyri | 0 | 953 | 18.98% | |
| 16 | 1981-07-26 | 9.38 | Fram Reykjavik | 3 | 1072 | 24.28% | @ Vikingur Reykjavik | 1 | 1106 | 36.81% | |
| 17 | 1981-05-10 | 8.58 | @ KR Reykjavik | 2 | 1046 | 35.36% | FH Hafnarfjordur | 0 | 1021 | 25.42% | |
| 18 | 1981-07-16 | 8.41 | @ Fram Reykjavik | 3 | 1063 | 29.49% | Breidablik | 1 | 1080 | 30.89% | |
| 19 | 1981-08-08 | 8.30 | @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 4 | 1080 | 45.25% | FH Hafnarfjordur | 1 | 987 | 19.12% | |
| 20 | 1981-06-15 | 8.22 | @ Fram Reykjavik | 2 | 1068 | 37.29% | KR Reykjavik | 0 | 1030 | 23.92% | |
| 21 | 1981-06-04 | 8.20 | Breidablik | 3 | 1054 | 30.75% | @ KR Reykjavik | 1 | 1038 | 29.62% | |
| 22 | 1981-09-12 | 8.19 | @ Fram Reykjavik | 2 | 1089 | 37.47% | KA Akureyri | 0 | 1050 | 23.78% | |
| 23 | 1981-06-27 | 8.09 | @ Valur Reykjavik | 6 | 1152 | 62.37% | Thor Akureyri | 1 | 942 | 13.64% | |
| 24 | 1981-07-18 | 7.74 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 4 | 1069 | 48.37% | @ Thor Akureyri | 1 | 934 | 18.21% | |
| 25 | 1981-06-03 | 7.73 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2 | 1071 | 40.16% | @ FH Hafnarfjordur | 0 | 991 | 22.28% | |