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1980 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

28 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1978.0

Relegated

Throtter Reykjavik

9 pts

Keflavik IF · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

6.48 points above expected

25 points · 18.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

7.54 points below expected

9 points · 16.54 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 13 2 3 28 43 16 +27 22.85 +5.15
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 11 3 4 25 23 19 +4 18.52 +6.48
3 IA Akranes 18 8 4 6 20 29 20 +9 21.54 -1.54
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 20 24 23 +1 18.11 +1.89
5 Breidablik 18 8 1 9 17 25 22 +3 14.79 +2.21
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 7 6 17 26 28 -2 20.33 -3.33
7 KR Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 16 16 25 -9 16.68 -0.68
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 5 8 15 24 34 -10 12.79 +2.21
9 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 3 7 8 13 16 26 -10 17.85 -4.85
10 Throttur Reykjavik 18 2 5 11 9 13 26 -13 16.54 -7.54

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 25 18.52 +6.48
2 Valur Reykjavik 28 22.85 +5.15
3 Breidablik 17 14.79 +2.21
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 12.79 +2.21
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 20 18.11 +1.89

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 9 16.54 -7.54
2 Keflavik IF 13 17.85 -4.85
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 20.33 -3.33
4 IA Akranes 20 21.54 -1.54
5 KR Reykjavik 16 16.68 -0.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 May 10 – Jun 4 1 in 72
2 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 11 – Sep 14 1 in 46
3 Breidablik 3 Jul 10 – Jul 26 1 in 38
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 9 – Aug 17 1 in 28
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 21 – Aug 5 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 7 – Jul 20 1 in 26
2 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 18 – Jun 4 1 in 18
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 8 – Jun 21 1 in 11
4 IA Akranes 2 Aug 28 – Sep 7 1 in 10
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Aug 24 – Aug 27 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 9 Jun 15 – Aug 16 1 in 70
2 Fram Reykjavik 7 May 10 – Jun 21 1 in 22
3 Breidablik 4 Jul 10 – Aug 6 1 in 12
4 IA Akranes 6 Jun 9 – Jul 20 1 in 10
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Aug 27 – Sep 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 8 Jun 9 – Aug 5 1 in 40
2 Throttur Reykjavik 9 Jul 20 – Sep 12 1 in 25
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 19 – Aug 23 1 in 20
4 IA Akranes 3 Jun 5 – Jun 14 1 in 9
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 9 – Jul 20 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik 1273 28 +39 10 6.6 +3.4
Fram Reykjavik 1148 25 +60 9 5.6 +3.4
IA Akranes 1183 20 +22 6 6.0 -0.0
Vikingur Reykjavik 1108 20 -33 4 5.1 -1.1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1127 17 -3 5 5.5 -0.5
Breidablik 1075 17 -2 4 4.7 -0.7
KR Reykjavik 1060 16 -29 3 4.7 -1.7
FH Hafnarfjordur 1000 15 +17 6 3.7 +2.3
Keflavik IF 1052 13 -29 2 4.2 -2.2
Throttur Reykjavik 1008 9 -40 1 4.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TR VR VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-2
2.37
2-0-0
2.39
0-1-1
1.65
1-0-1
2.16
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.40
 —
0-1-1
1.66
2-0-0
1.47
0-2-0
1.64
1-0-1
2.12
0-1-1
1.87
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
1.43
0-1-1
1.79
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.29
1-1-0
3.84
 —
1-0-1
2.16
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.76
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.69
0-0-2
4.05
1-0-1
3.33
 —
1-1-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.35
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
3.35
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.64
0-2-0
3.87
0-0-2
3.11
0-1-1
2.51
 —
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.29
0-0-2
2.09
1-1-0
2.99
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.81
1-0-1
3.37
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.39
 —
2-0-0
2.54
0-1-1
2.98
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
2.55
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.12
1-1-0
3.62
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.01
0-1-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.95
 —
0-2-0
3.06
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.83
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
3.09
1-0-1
3.18
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.06
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.51
0-2-0
2.43
 —
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.37
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.86
1-0-1
4.08
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.40
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.97
 —
1-1-0
3.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.71
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.66
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
1.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +5.4
Allowed 0.54 -8.0
Differential 0.79 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%11.67%3.89%3.89%2.78%0.56%26.11%
111.67%15.56%6.67%5.00%0.56%—39.44%
23.89%6.67%4.44%2.22%—0.56%17.78%
33.89%5.00%2.22%———11.11%
42.78%0.56%——1.11%—4.44%
5+0.56%—0.56%———1.11%
Total26.11%39.44%17.78%11.11%4.44%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.84
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%—16.67%——38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.22 +0.17
SD 1.14 1.17 1.65
CV 0.82 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%33.33%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.89 -0.56
SD 1.19 1.18 1.65
CV 0.89 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———11.11%—16.67%
133.33%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—55.56%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%22.22%—5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.06 +0.22
SD 0.96 1.55 2.10
CV 0.75 1.47 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
322.22%5.56%————27.78%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.29 1.02 2.12
CV 0.80 0.92 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
111.11%27.78%5.56%———44.44%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.56 -0.11
SD 1.29 1.65 1.91
CV 0.90 1.06 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%11.11%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.39 -0.50
SD 1.02 1.38 1.89
CV 1.15 0.99 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
1—27.78%11.11%———38.89%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%61.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.44 -0.56
SD 0.90 0.92 1.29
CV 1.01 0.64 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%22.22%11.11%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.44 -0.72
SD 0.67 1.04 1.18
CV 0.93 0.72 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.89 +1.50
SD 1.85 0.90 2.15
CV 0.78 1.01 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
116.67%22.22%5.56%11.11%——55.56%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.28 +0.06
SD 0.84 1.07 1.47
CV 0.63 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1273 28 22.85 +5.15 94.0% 11 17 20 23 25 29 32
IA Akranes 1172 20 21.54 -1.54 40.0% 15 17 19 21 24 27 31
Fram Reykjavik 1148 25 18.52 +6.48 96.0% 10 12 16 18 20 24 32
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1127 17 20.33 -3.33 19.0% 11 14 18 20 22 26 28
Vikingur Reykjavik 1119 20 18.11 +1.89 73.0% 9 12 15 18 21 24 26
Breidablik 1075 17 14.79 +2.21 80.0% 7 9 13 15 17 20 26
KR Reykjavik 1060 16 16.68 -0.68 48.0% 9 11 14 17 19 22 27
Keflavik IF 1052 13 17.85 -4.85 13.0% 8 11 15 18 21 23 27
Throttur Reykjavik 1008 9 16.54 -7.54 0.0% 10 11 14 16 18 22 24
FH Hafnarfjordur 1000 15 12.79 +2.21 78.0% 2 7 10 13 15 18 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Slight Edge
41.11%24.44%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
195 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
48%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.83 * Some Luck: 2.83 to 4.24 * Lucky: 4.24 to 5.65 * Wild Swing: 5.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.5 * Close: 1.5 to 2.25 * Off: 2.25 to 3 * Way Off: 3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.99 * A Surprise: 0.99 to 1.58 * Several Surprises: 1.58 to 2.18 * Many Surprises: 2.18 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.20 points
Some Luck
03.539
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.874
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Throttur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 83.40
1.51
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Clear Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.77
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.1800.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik48.00%19.00%10.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%
Fram Reykjavik9.00%6.00%12.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%15.00%4.00%8.00%4.00%
IA Akranes22.00%24.00%16.00%20.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%——
Vikingur Reykjavik5.00%8.00%17.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%9.00%6.00%
Breidablik1.00%2.00%1.00%6.00%8.00%13.00%18.00%12.00%20.00%19.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.00%25.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%9.00%4.00%—
KR Reykjavik3.00%3.00%4.00%13.00%13.00%12.00%9.00%20.00%12.00%11.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——1.00%—6.00%6.00%6.00%19.00%17.00%45.00%
Keflavik IF2.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%12.00%13.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%8.00%
Throttur Reykjavik1.00%4.00%7.00%3.00%12.00%14.00%20.00%12.00%22.00%5.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 97.00% 3.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 96.00% 4.00%
Fram Reykjavik 88.00% 12.00%
Keflavik IF 85.00% 15.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 85.00% 15.00%
KR Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 73.00% 27.00%
Breidablik 61.00% 39.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 38.00% 62.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1980-05-10 IA Akranes W 2-039.7 1095 1168 31.83% 25.54% 42.63%-0.26 +19.4 2
1980-05-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-239.7 1168 1095 42.63% 25.54% 31.83%+0.26 -19.4 0
1980-05-10 Breidablik W 1-035.3 1145 1016 57.22% 24.77% 18.01%+0.78 +5.2 2
1980-05-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-135.3 1016 1145 18.01% 24.77% 57.22%-0.78 -5.2 0
1980-05-11 KR Reykjavik W 1-040.7 1090 1111 39.19% 25.64% 35.18%+0.01 +8.9 2
1980-05-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-140.7 1111 1090 35.18% 25.64% 39.19%-0.01 -8.9 0
1980-05-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1126 1096 46.12% 25.53% 28.36%+0.28 -0.9 1
1980-05-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-153.0 1096 1126 28.36% 25.53% 46.12%-0.28 +0.9 1
1980-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-029.6 1166 1021 58.66% 24.59% 16.75%+0.86 +17.4 2
1980-05-12 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-429.6 1021 1166 16.75% 24.59% 58.66%-0.86 -17.4 0
1980-05-17 Keflavik IF L 1-243.7 1004 1125 25.87% 25.27% 48.86%-0.51 -6.6 0
1980-05-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-143.7 1125 1004 48.86% 25.27% 25.87%+0.51 +6.6 3
1980-05-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-037.8 1149 1097 48.82% 25.42% 25.76%+0.39 +7.0 2
1980-05-17 @ IA Akranes L 0-137.8 1097 1149 25.76% 25.42% 48.82%-0.39 -7.0 1
1980-05-17 Valur Reykjavik L 0-334.3 1102 1183 30.82% 25.51% 43.67%-0.30 -22.0 0
1980-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-034.3 1183 1102 43.67% 25.51% 30.82%+0.30 +22.0 4
1980-05-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-149.4 1011 1099 29.94% 25.48% 44.59%-0.33 +10.1 2
1980-05-18 @ Breidablik L 1-249.4 1099 1011 44.59% 25.48% 29.94%+0.33 -10.1 2
1980-05-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-041.4 1114 1150 37.00% 25.63% 37.37%-0.07 +9.3 4
1980-05-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.4 1150 1114 37.37% 25.63% 37.00%+0.07 -9.3 2
1980-05-24 IA Akranes L 1-248.1 1141 1156 39.99% 25.64% 34.37%+0.04 -9.2 2
1980-05-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.1 1156 1141 34.37% 25.64% 39.99%-0.04 +9.2 4
1980-05-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.3 1089 1123 37.19% 25.63% 37.18%-0.06 -9.3 2
1980-05-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-041.3 1123 1089 37.18% 25.63% 37.19%+0.06 +9.3 6
1980-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-144.7 1132 1080 48.81% 25.42% 25.77%+0.39 -11.5 3
1980-05-26 @ Keflavik IF W 1-044.7 1080 1132 25.77% 25.42% 48.81%-0.39 +11.5 2
1980-05-27 Breidablik W 3-245.0 1205 1021 62.15% 24.05% 13.80%+1.06 +3.7 6
1980-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-345.0 1021 1205 13.80% 24.05% 62.15%-1.06 -3.7 2
1980-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.1 1090 997 53.42% 25.13% 21.45%+0.59 -1.2 2
1980-05-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-259.1 997 1090 21.45% 25.13% 53.42%-0.59 +1.2 1
1980-06-04 Valur Reykjavik W 1-043.1 1133 1209 31.52% 25.53% 42.95%-0.27 +10.4 8
1980-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-143.1 1209 1133 42.95% 25.53% 31.52%+0.27 -10.4 6
1980-06-04 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-037.8 1132 1079 48.80% 25.42% 25.78%+0.39 +7.0 4
1980-06-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-137.8 1079 1132 25.78% 25.42% 48.80%-0.39 -7.0 2
1980-06-05 Keflavik IF L 2-349.6 1017 1121 28.03% 25.39% 46.58%-0.41 -6.7 2
1980-06-05 @ Breidablik W 3-249.6 1121 1017 46.58% 25.39% 28.03%+0.41 +6.7 5
1980-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-350.8 1165 998 60.67% 24.30% 15.03%+0.97 -23.1 4
1980-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 3-150.8 998 1165 15.03% 24.30% 60.67%-0.97 +23.1 3
1980-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-142.9 1091 1088 42.46% 25.61% 31.93%+0.13 -10.3 2
1980-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-042.9 1088 1091 31.93% 25.61% 42.46%-0.13 +10.3 4
1980-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 7-236.3 1198 1139 49.68% 25.38% 24.94%+0.42 +20.8 8
1980-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-736.3 1139 1198 24.94% 25.38% 49.68%-0.42 -20.8 4
1980-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-246.1 1021 1081 33.72% 25.59% 40.70%-0.19 -8.1 3
1980-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-146.1 1081 1021 40.70% 25.59% 33.72%+0.19 +8.1 4
1980-06-08 Breidablik L 1-251.8 1099 1010 52.96% 25.17% 21.88%+0.57 -11.7 4
1980-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-151.8 1010 1099 21.88% 25.17% 52.96%-0.57 +11.7 4
1980-06-09 Fram Reykjavik D 0-048.1 1127 1143 39.86% 25.64% 34.50%+0.04 -0.3 6
1980-06-09 @ Keflavik IF D 0-048.1 1143 1127 34.50% 25.64% 39.86%-0.04 +0.3 9
1980-06-09 IA Akranes D 1-152.9 1072 1142 32.35% 25.56% 42.09%-0.24 +0.5 3
1980-06-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1142 1072 42.09% 25.56% 32.35%+0.24 -0.5 5
1980-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-034.2 1022 1013 43.24% 25.60% 31.16%+0.16 +29.0 6
1980-06-14 @ Breidablik L 0-434.2 1013 1022 31.16% 25.60% 43.24%-0.16 -29.0 3
1980-06-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1142 1089 48.83% 25.42% 25.75%+0.39 -1.2 6
1980-06-14 @ IA Akranes D 1-153.0 1089 1142 25.75% 25.42% 48.83%-0.39 +1.2 5
1980-06-14 Keflavik IF W 4-035.0 1118 1127 40.82% 25.63% 33.55%+0.07 +30.7 6
1980-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-435.0 1127 1118 33.55% 25.63% 40.82%-0.07 -30.7 6
1980-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1143 1087 49.32% 25.40% 25.29%+0.41 -1.2 10
1980-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1087 1143 25.29% 25.40% 49.32%-0.41 +1.2 5
1980-06-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-339.8 1073 1219 23.17% 25.07% 51.77%-0.63 -10.5 3
1980-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-139.8 1219 1073 51.77% 25.07% 23.17%+0.63 +10.4 10
1980-06-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-339.3 984 1142 21.96% 24.96% 53.09%-0.69 -10.0 3
1980-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-139.3 1142 984 53.09% 24.96% 21.96%+0.69 +10.0 12
1980-06-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.9 1088 1149 33.58% 25.59% 40.84%-0.19 +0.4 6
1980-06-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1149 1088 40.84% 25.59% 33.58%+0.19 -0.4 7
1980-06-22 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1096 1062 46.49% 25.52% 27.99%+0.29 -0.9 7
1980-06-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.9 1062 1096 27.99% 25.52% 46.49%-0.29 +0.9 4
1980-06-22 IA Akranes L 0-341.0 1230 1140 53.06% 25.16% 21.78%+0.58 -34.1 10
1980-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-041.0 1140 1230 21.78% 25.16% 53.06%-0.58 +34.1 8
1980-06-23 Breidablik W 1-038.3 1090 1051 47.18% 25.49% 27.33%+0.32 +7.3 7
1980-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-138.3 1051 1090 27.33% 25.49% 47.18%-0.32 -7.3 6
1980-07-05 Breidablik W 3-138.1 1175 1044 57.36% 24.75% 17.89%+0.79 +8.4 10
1980-07-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-338.1 1044 1175 17.89% 24.75% 57.36%-0.79 -8.4 6
1980-07-05 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-464.7 1148 974 61.28% 24.20% 14.51%+1.01 -1.4 8
1980-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 4-464.7 974 1148 14.51% 24.20% 61.28%-1.01 +1.4 4
1980-07-05 Keflavik IF W 1-036.2 1196 1095 54.26% 25.06% 20.67%+0.63 +5.8 12
1980-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-136.2 1095 1196 20.67% 25.06% 54.26%-0.63 -5.8 7
1980-07-06 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-141.7 1063 1088 38.58% 25.64% 35.78%-0.01 -9.5 4
1980-07-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-041.7 1088 1063 35.78% 25.64% 38.58%+0.01 +9.5 8
1980-07-07 KR Reykjavik L 1-445.0 1152 1098 49.07% 25.41% 25.52%+0.40 -26.8 12
1980-07-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-145.0 1098 1152 25.52% 25.41% 49.07%-0.40 +26.8 9
1980-07-09 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-236.2 976 1054 31.22% 25.52% 43.25%-0.28 -15.3 4
1980-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-036.2 1054 976 43.25% 25.52% 31.22%+0.28 +15.3 6
1980-07-09 Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1098 1201 28.04% 25.39% 46.57%-0.41 +0.9 9
1980-07-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1201 1098 46.57% 25.39% 28.04%+0.41 -0.9 13
1980-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 3-146.3 1035 1125 29.70% 25.47% 44.83%-0.34 +17.5 8
1980-07-10 @ Breidablik L 1-346.3 1125 1035 44.83% 25.47% 29.70%+0.34 -17.5 12
1980-07-10 IA Akranes D 1-153.0 1089 1183 29.26% 25.45% 45.29%-0.36 +0.8 8
1980-07-10 @ Keflavik IF D 1-153.0 1183 1089 45.29% 25.45% 29.26%+0.36 -0.8 11
1980-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-344.7 1124 1147 38.94% 25.64% 35.42%+0.00 -15.7 9
1980-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-144.7 1147 1124 35.42% 25.64% 38.94%+0.00 +15.7 10
1980-07-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-041.0 1053 1163 27.28% 25.35% 47.36%-0.44 +21.2 10
1980-07-19 @ Breidablik L 0-241.0 1163 1053 47.36% 25.35% 27.28%+0.44 -21.2 10
1980-07-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-153.9 960 1200 14.89% 23.92% 61.20%-1.11 +13.4 6
1980-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-253.9 1200 960 61.20% 23.92% 14.89%+1.11 -13.4 13
1980-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 4-031.8 1182 1108 51.40% 25.28% 23.32%+0.50 +23.1 13
1980-07-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-431.8 1108 1182 23.32% 25.28% 51.40%-0.50 -23.1 12
1980-07-20 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-048.1 1109 1069 47.23% 25.49% 27.28%+0.32 -1.1 10
1980-07-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-048.1 1069 1109 27.28% 25.49% 47.23%-0.32 +1.1 7
1980-07-21 Keflavik IF W 2-145.4 1099 1090 43.22% 25.60% 31.18%+0.16 +7.7 11
1980-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-245.4 1090 1099 31.18% 25.60% 43.22%-0.16 -7.7 8
1980-07-26 Fram Reykjavik L 0-144.9 1141 1085 49.32% 25.40% 25.28%+0.41 -11.6 10
1980-07-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-044.9 1085 1141 25.28% 25.40% 49.32%-0.41 +11.7 14
1980-07-26 Breidablik L 0-142.6 1070 1074 41.54% 25.62% 32.83%+0.10 -10.1 7
1980-07-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-042.6 1074 1070 32.83% 25.62% 41.54%-0.10 +10.1 12
1980-07-27 KR Reykjavik W 5-032.3 1187 1108 51.98% 25.24% 22.78%+0.53 +27.9 15
1980-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-532.3 1108 1187 22.78% 25.24% 51.98%-0.53 -27.9 10
1980-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-259.1 1083 974 55.16% 24.98% 19.86%+0.68 -1.4 9
1980-07-28 @ Keflavik IF D 2-259.1 974 1083 19.86% 24.98% 55.16%-0.68 +1.4 7
1980-07-28 IA Akranes W 3-038.9 1107 1205 28.62% 25.42% 45.96%-0.39 +30.0 13
1980-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-338.9 1205 1107 45.96% 25.42% 28.62%+0.39 -30.0 13
1980-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-259.1 1175 1130 47.97% 25.46% 26.57%+0.35 -0.8 14
1980-07-31 @ IA Akranes D 2-259.1 1130 1175 26.57% 25.46% 47.97%-0.35 +0.8 11
1980-08-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-136.4 975 1137 21.61% 24.92% 53.47%-0.71 -6.0 7
1980-08-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-036.4 1137 975 53.47% 24.92% 21.61%+0.71 +6.0 15
1980-08-05 Keflavik IF W 1-039.9 1080 1081 41.85% 25.62% 32.53%+0.11 +8.4 12
1980-08-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-139.9 1081 1080 32.53% 25.62% 41.85%-0.11 -8.4 9
1980-08-06 Valur Reykjavik D 0-048.3 1084 1215 24.84% 25.20% 49.96%-0.55 +1.4 13
1980-08-06 @ Breidablik D 0-048.3 1215 1084 49.96% 25.20% 24.84%+0.55 -1.4 16
1980-08-06 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-141.2 1096 1060 46.81% 25.50% 27.69%+0.30 +12.1 16
1980-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-341.2 1060 1096 27.69% 25.50% 46.81%-0.30 -12.1 7
1980-08-09 IA Akranes W 1-047.2 969 1174 17.58% 24.41% 58.01%-0.93 +13.5 9
1980-08-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-147.2 1174 969 58.01% 24.41% 17.58%+0.93 -13.5 14
1980-08-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.9 1048 1131 30.68% 25.51% 43.82%-0.30 +0.6 8
1980-08-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1131 1048 43.82% 25.51% 30.68%+0.30 -0.7 12
1980-08-11 Breidablik W 2-146.3 1073 1086 40.29% 25.63% 34.07%+0.05 +8.2 11
1980-08-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-246.3 1086 1073 34.07% 25.63% 40.29%-0.05 -8.2 13
1980-08-11 Fram Reykjavik W 4-030.8 1214 1108 54.76% 25.02% 20.22%+0.66 +20.5 18
1980-08-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-430.8 1108 1214 20.22% 25.02% 54.76%-0.66 -20.5 16
1980-08-12 KR Reykjavik D 2-259.1 1143 1088 49.07% 25.41% 25.52%+0.40 -0.9 16
1980-08-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-259.1 1088 1143 25.52% 25.41% 49.07%-0.40 +0.9 13
1980-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-351.2 1077 1142 33.08% 25.57% 41.35%-0.21 -7.6 13
1980-08-16 @ Breidablik W 3-251.2 1142 1077 41.35% 25.57% 33.08%+0.21 +7.6 18
1980-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-030.7 1161 1049 55.51% 24.95% 19.55%+0.69 +15.2 16
1980-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-330.7 1049 1161 19.55% 24.95% 55.51%-0.69 -15.2 8
1980-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-235.3 1130 1234 27.95% 25.39% 46.66%-0.42 -14.0 12
1980-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-035.3 1234 1130 46.66% 25.39% 27.95%+0.42 +14.0 20
1980-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-252.3 1089 983 54.91% 25.01% 20.09%+0.66 -12.1 13
1980-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-152.3 983 1089 20.09% 25.01% 54.91%-0.66 +12.1 11
1980-08-18 Keflavik IF W 1-039.6 1088 1081 43.00% 25.60% 31.39%+0.15 +8.2 18
1980-08-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-139.6 1081 1088 31.39% 25.60% 43.00%-0.15 -8.2 11
1980-08-23 Breidablik L 0-139.6 995 1070 31.63% 25.54% 42.84%-0.27 -8.2 11
1980-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-039.6 1070 995 42.84% 25.54% 31.63%+0.27 +8.2 15
1980-08-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.9 1073 1116 36.02% 25.62% 38.36%-0.10 +0.1 12
1980-08-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.9 1116 1073 38.36% 25.62% 36.02%+0.10 -0.1 13
1980-08-23 IA Akranes L 0-333.6 1077 1176 28.54% 25.42% 46.04%-0.39 -20.7 13
1980-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-033.6 1176 1077 46.04% 25.42% 28.54%+0.39 +20.7 18
1980-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-339.7 1149 1096 48.90% 25.42% 25.68%+0.39 -31.7 18
1980-08-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-039.7 1096 1149 25.68% 25.42% 48.90%-0.39 +31.7 20
1980-08-25 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-139.1 1248 1034 64.51% 23.59% 11.90%+1.22 +3.4 22
1980-08-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-239.1 1034 1248 11.90% 23.59% 64.51%-1.22 -3.4 8
1980-08-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-143.6 1078 1056 44.97% 25.56% 29.47%+0.23 -10.8 15
1980-08-27 @ Breidablik W 1-043.6 1056 1078 29.47% 25.56% 44.97%-0.23 +10.8 15
1980-08-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.2 1128 987 58.37% 24.63% 17.00%+0.84 -2.2 21
1980-08-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.2 987 1128 17.00% 24.63% 58.37%-0.84 +2.2 12
1980-08-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-142.7 1116 1118 41.80% 25.62% 32.58%+0.11 +13.7 15
1980-08-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-342.7 1118 1116 32.58% 25.62% 41.80%-0.11 -13.7 18
1980-08-28 Valur Reykjavik L 1-246.6 1197 1251 34.41% 25.60% 39.99%-0.16 -8.2 18
1980-08-28 @ IA Akranes W 2-146.6 1251 1197 39.99% 25.60% 34.41%+0.16 +8.2 24
1980-08-28 Keflavik IF D 1-152.9 1030 1073 36.05% 25.62% 38.33%-0.10 +0.1 9
1980-08-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1073 1030 38.33% 25.62% 36.05%+0.10 -0.1 13
1980-09-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.0 989 1129 23.76% 25.12% 51.12%-0.60 +1.4 13
1980-09-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.0 1129 989 51.12% 25.12% 23.76%+0.60 -1.4 16
1980-09-06 Valur Reykjavik L 1-241.6 1073 1260 19.19% 24.64% 56.17%-0.84 -5.1 13
1980-09-06 @ Keflavik IF W 2-141.6 1260 1073 56.17% 24.64% 19.19%+0.84 +5.1 26
1980-09-06 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-033.8 1104 1030 51.32% 25.28% 23.40%+0.50 +12.2 20
1980-09-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-233.8 1030 1104 23.40% 25.28% 51.32%-0.50 -12.2 9
1980-09-07 IA Akranes W 2-041.5 1067 1189 25.91% 25.27% 48.82%-0.50 +21.8 17
1980-09-07 @ Breidablik L 0-241.5 1189 1067 48.82% 25.27% 25.91%+0.50 -21.8 18
1980-09-07 Fram Reykjavik L 0-140.3 1067 1126 33.83% 25.59% 40.58%-0.18 -8.6 15
1980-09-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-040.3 1126 1067 40.58% 25.59% 33.83%+0.18 +8.6 23
1980-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-354.9 1018 990 45.75% 25.54% 28.71%+0.26 -9.8 9
1980-09-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-254.9 990 1018 28.71% 25.54% 45.75%-0.26 +9.8 15
1980-09-13 Breidablik W 2-034.8 1134 1089 47.94% 25.46% 26.60%+0.35 +13.5 25
1980-09-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-234.8 1089 1134 26.60% 25.46% 47.94%-0.35 -13.5 17
1980-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-031.2 1167 1068 54.15% 25.07% 20.77%+0.63 +16.1 20
1980-09-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-331.2 1068 1167 20.77% 25.07% 54.15%-0.63 -16.1 13
1980-09-13 KR Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1128 1058 50.87% 25.31% 23.82%+0.48 -1.4 17
1980-09-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.0 1058 1128 23.82% 25.31% 50.87%-0.48 +1.4 16
1980-09-14 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-137.7 1265 1116 59.06% 24.54% 16.41%+0.88 +7.8 28
1980-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-337.7 1116 1265 16.41% 24.54% 59.06%-0.88 -7.8 20

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1980-09-26 IA Akranes W 2-150.2 1108 1183 27.27% 25.43% 47.30%-0.38 +10.6 1-0
1980-09-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-250.2 1183 1108 47.30% 25.43% 27.27%+0.38 -10.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1980-07-20 14.89% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 960 2 Valur Reykjavik 1200 1
2 1980-06-05 15.03% FH Hafnarfjordur 998 3 @ IA Akranes 1165 1
3 1980-08-09 17.58% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 969 1 IA Akranes 1174 0
4 1980-08-17 20.09% FH Hafnarfjordur 983 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1089 1
5 1980-06-22 21.78% IA Akranes 1140 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1230 0
6 1980-06-08 21.88% Breidablik 1010 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1099 1
7 1980-07-26 25.28% Fram Reykjavik 1085 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1141 0
8 1980-07-07 25.52% KR Reykjavik 1098 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1152 1
9 1980-08-24 25.68% Fram Reykjavik 1096 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1149 0
10 1980-05-26 25.77% KR Reykjavik 1080 1 @ Keflavik IF 1132 0
11 1980-09-07 25.91% @ Breidablik 1067 2 IA Akranes 1189 0
12 1980-09-26 * 27.27% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1108 2 IA Akranes 1183 1
13 1980-07-19 27.28% @ Breidablik 1053 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1163 0
14 1980-07-28 28.62% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1107 3 IA Akranes 1205 0
15 1980-09-12 28.71% FH Hafnarfjordur 990 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1018 2
16 1980-08-27 29.47% KR Reykjavik 1056 1 @ Breidablik 1078 0
17 1980-07-10 29.70% @ Breidablik 1035 3 Fram Reykjavik 1125 1
18 1980-05-18 29.94% @ Breidablik 1011 2 Throttur Reykjavik 1099 1
19 1980-06-04 31.52% @ Fram Reykjavik 1133 1 Valur Reykjavik 1209 0
20 1980-05-10 31.83% @ Fram Reykjavik 1095 2 IA Akranes 1168 0
21 1980-06-05 31.93% Vikingur Reykjavik 1088 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1091 0
22 1980-07-26 32.83% Breidablik 1074 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1070 0
23 1980-05-24 34.37% IA Akranes 1156 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1141 1
24 1980-07-10 35.42% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1147 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1124 1
25 1980-07-06 35.78% Vikingur Reykjavik 1088 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1063 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-06-22 34.08 IA Akranes 3 1140 21.78% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1230 53.06% 25.16%
2 1980-08-24 31.68 Fram Reykjavik 3 1096 25.68% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1149 48.90% 25.42%
3 1980-06-14 30.72 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1118 40.82% Keflavik IF 0 1127 33.55% 25.63%
4 1980-07-28 30.01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1107 28.62% IA Akranes 0 1205 45.96% 25.42%
5 1980-06-14 29.04 @ Breidablik 4 1022 43.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1013 31.16% 25.60%
6 1980-07-27 27.91 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1187 51.98% KR Reykjavik 0 1108 22.78% 25.24%
7 1980-07-07 26.80 KR Reykjavik 4 1098 25.52% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1152 49.07% 25.41%
8 1980-07-20 23.08 @ IA Akranes 4 1182 51.40% Fram Reykjavik 0 1108 23.32% 25.28%
9 1980-06-05 23.06 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 998 15.03% @ IA Akranes 1 1165 60.67% 24.30%
10 1980-05-17 22.01 Valur Reykjavik 3 1183 43.67% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1102 30.82% 25.51%
11 1980-09-07 21.76 @ Breidablik 2 1067 25.91% IA Akranes 0 1189 48.82% 25.27%
12 1980-07-19 21.20 @ Breidablik 2 1053 27.28% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1163 47.36% 25.35%
13 1980-06-07 20.82 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1198 49.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1139 24.94% 25.38%
14 1980-08-23 20.73 IA Akranes 3 1176 46.04% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1077 28.54% 25.42%
15 1980-08-11 20.50 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1214 54.76% Fram Reykjavik 0 1108 20.22% 25.02%
16 1980-05-10 19.43 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1095 31.83% IA Akranes 0 1168 42.63% 25.54%
17 1980-07-10 17.53 @ Breidablik 3 1035 29.70% Fram Reykjavik 1 1125 44.83% 25.47%
18 1980-05-12 17.43 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1166 58.66% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1021 16.75% 24.59%
19 1980-09-13 16.06 @ IA Akranes 3 1167 54.15% Keflavik IF 0 1068 20.77% 25.07%
20 1980-07-10 15.68 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1147 35.42% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1124 38.94% 25.64%
21 1980-07-09 15.31 Throttur Reykjavik 2 1054 43.25% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 976 31.22% 25.52%
22 1980-08-16 15.25 @ IA Akranes 3 1161 55.51% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1049 19.55% 24.95%
23 1980-08-16 14.04 Valur Reykjavik 2 1234 46.66% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1130 27.95% 25.39%
24 1980-08-27 13.71 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1116 41.80% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1118 32.58% 25.62%
25 1980-09-13 13.53 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1134 47.94% Breidablik 0 1089 26.60% 25.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-07-05 64.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1148 61.28% FH Hafnarfjordur 4 974 14.51% 24.20%
2 1980-05-28 59.1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1090 53.42% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 997 21.45% 25.13%
3 1980-07-28 59.1 @ Keflavik IF 2 1083 55.16% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 974 19.86% 24.98%
4 1980-07-31 59.1 @ IA Akranes 2 1175 47.97% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1130 26.57% 25.46%
5 1980-08-12 59.1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1143 49.07% KR Reykjavik 2 1088 25.52% 25.41%
6 1980-09-12 54.9 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 990 28.71% @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1018 45.75% 25.54%
7 1980-07-20 53.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 960 14.89% Valur Reykjavik 1 1200 61.20% 23.92%
8 1980-08-27 53.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1128 58.37% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 987 17.00% 24.63%
9 1980-05-12 53.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1126 46.12% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1096 28.36% 25.53%
10 1980-06-14 53.0 @ IA Akranes 1 1142 48.83% KR Reykjavik 1 1089 25.75% 25.42%
11 1980-06-15 53.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1143 49.32% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1087 25.29% 25.40%
12 1980-07-09 53.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1098 28.04% Valur Reykjavik 1 1201 46.57% 25.39%
13 1980-07-10 53.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1089 29.26% IA Akranes 1 1183 45.29% 25.45%
14 1980-09-06 53.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 989 23.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1129 51.12% 25.12%
15 1980-09-13 53.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1128 50.87% KR Reykjavik 1 1058 23.82% 25.31%
16 1980-06-09 52.9 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1072 32.35% IA Akranes 1 1142 42.09% 25.56%
17 1980-06-21 52.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1088 33.58% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1149 40.84% 25.59%
18 1980-06-22 52.9 @ Keflavik IF 1 1096 46.49% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1062 27.99% 25.52%
19 1980-08-10 52.9 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1048 30.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1131 43.82% 25.51%
20 1980-08-23 52.9 @ Keflavik IF 1 1073 36.02% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1116 38.36% 25.62%
21 1980-08-28 52.9 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1030 36.05% Keflavik IF 1 1073 38.33% 25.62%
22 1980-08-17 52.3 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 983 20.09% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1089 54.91% 25.01%
23 1980-06-08 51.8 Breidablik 2 1010 21.88% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1099 52.96% 25.17%
24 1980-08-16 51.2 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1142 41.35% @ Breidablik 2 1077 33.08% 25.57%
25 1980-06-05 50.8 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 998 15.03% @ IA Akranes 1 1165 60.67% 24.30%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-05-12 29.6 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1166 58.66% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1021 16.75% 24.59%
2 1980-08-16 30.7 @ IA Akranes 3 1161 55.51% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1049 19.55% 24.95%
3 1980-08-11 30.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1214 54.76% Fram Reykjavik 0 1108 20.22% 25.02%
4 1980-09-13 31.2 @ IA Akranes 3 1167 54.15% Keflavik IF 0 1068 20.77% 25.07%
5 1980-07-20 31.8 @ IA Akranes 4 1182 51.40% Fram Reykjavik 0 1108 23.32% 25.28%
6 1980-07-27 32.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1187 51.98% KR Reykjavik 0 1108 22.78% 25.24%
7 1980-08-23 33.6 IA Akranes 3 1176 46.04% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1077 28.54% 25.42%
8 1980-09-06 33.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1104 51.32% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1030 23.40% 25.28%
9 1980-06-14 34.2 @ Breidablik 4 1022 43.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1013 31.16% 25.60%
10 1980-05-17 34.3 Valur Reykjavik 3 1183 43.67% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1102 30.82% 25.51%
11 1980-09-13 34.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1134 47.94% Breidablik 0 1089 26.60% 25.46%
12 1980-06-14 35.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1118 40.82% Keflavik IF 0 1127 33.55% 25.63%
13 1980-05-10 35.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1145 57.22% Breidablik 0 1016 18.01% 24.77%
14 1980-08-16 35.3 Valur Reykjavik 2 1234 46.66% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1130 27.95% 25.39%
15 1980-07-05 36.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1196 54.26% Keflavik IF 0 1095 20.67% 25.06%
16 1980-07-09 36.2 Throttur Reykjavik 2 1054 43.25% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 976 31.22% 25.52%
17 1980-06-07 36.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1198 49.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1139 24.94% 25.38%
18 1980-08-05 36.4 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1137 53.47% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 975 21.61% 24.92%
19 1980-09-14 37.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1265 59.06% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1116 16.41% 24.54%
20 1980-05-17 37.8 @ IA Akranes 1 1149 48.82% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1097 25.76% 25.42%
21 1980-06-04 37.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1132 48.80% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1079 25.78% 25.42%
22 1980-07-05 38.1 @ IA Akranes 3 1175 57.36% Breidablik 1 1044 17.89% 24.75%
23 1980-06-23 38.3 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1090 47.18% Breidablik 0 1051 27.33% 25.49%
24 1980-07-28 38.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1107 28.62% IA Akranes 0 1205 45.96% 25.42%
25 1980-08-25 39.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1248 64.51% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1034 11.90% 23.59%