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1979 Úrvalsdeild Season

91 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

24 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Haukar Hafnarfjordur

5 pts

KA Akureyri · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

6.41 points above expected

22 points · 15.59 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Haukar Hafnarfjordur

8.99 points below expected

5 points · 13.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion 18 10 4 4 24 26 13 +13 20.47 +3.53
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 9 5 4 23 35 22 +13 25.82 -2.82
3 IA Akranes 18 10 3 5 23 27 17 +10 24.19 -1.19
4 Keflavik IF 18 8 6 4 22 26 18 +8 20.96 +1.04
5 KR Reykjavik 18 9 4 5 22 29 24 +5 15.59 +6.41
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 9 5 17 25 23 +2 15.40 +1.60
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 16 26 25 +1 18.01 -2.01
8 Throttur Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 16 27 31 -4 14.62 +1.38
9 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 3 6 9 12 21 36 -15 10.95 +1.05
10 Haukar Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 1 3 14 5 12 45 -33 13.99 -8.99
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 — —
2 Valur Reykjavik 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 22 15.59 +6.41
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 20.47 +3.53
3 Fram Reykjavik 17 15.40 +1.60
4 Throttur Reykjavik 16 14.62 +1.38
5 KA Akureyri 12 10.95 +1.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 13.99 -8.99
2 Valur Reykjavik 23 25.82 -2.82
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 16 18.01 -2.01
4 IA Akranes 23 24.19 -1.19
5 Keflavik IF 22 20.96 +1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 7 Jul 1 – Aug 12 1 in 41
2 Keflavik IF 3 Aug 30 – Sep 15 1 in 30
3 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 11 – Jun 16 1 in 22
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Aug 18 – Aug 30 1 in 14
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Jul 1 – Jul 9 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Aug 2 – Aug 16 1 in 112
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 15 – Aug 1 1 in 56
3 IA Akranes 2 Jun 30 – Jul 9 1 in 29
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jun 12 – Jun 16 1 in 23
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 Aug 18 – Sep 15 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 14 – Jul 8 1 in 155
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 16 – Jul 29 1 in 48
3 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Aug 1 – Aug 21 1 in 14
4 Keflavik IF 6 May 16 – Jun 24 1 in 6
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 30 – Jul 22 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 14 Jun 19 – Sep 15 1 in 62
2 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jun 26 – Aug 11 1 in 24
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 2 – Aug 22 1 in 9
4 IA Akranes 3 Jun 26 – Jul 9 1 in 9
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 12 – Jun 25 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1214 24 +18 8 6.0 +2.0
IA Akranes 1267 24 +1 6 5.8 +0.2
Valur Reykjavik 1292 24 -25 5 7.4 -2.4
KR Reykjavik 1124 22 +65 7 4.9 +2.1
Keflavik IF 1167 22 -26 7 5.9 +1.1
Fram Reykjavik 1076 17 +69 6 4.4 +1.6
Throttur Reykjavik 1063 16 +34 5 4.4 +0.6
Vikingur Reykjavik 1078 16 -34 3 4.7 -1.7
KA Akureyri 934 12 -4 3 2.8 +0.2
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 890 5 -72 0 2.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR HH IA IV KA KR KI TR VR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
1.45
1-1-0
1.81
0-2-0
3.71
0-0-2
2.92
1-1-0
1.61
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
1.20
1-0-1
2.30
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
2.68
—
1-0-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.51
0-1-1
3.63
0-0-2
2.82
0-1-1
1.47
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
2.24
IA Akranes
0-2-0
4.01
1-0-1
4.22
—
0-0-2
3.16
2-0-0
4.48
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
3.73
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
3.64
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
2.28
—
1-0-1
4.04
0-1-1
3.67
0-1-1
2.77
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
1.68
1-1-0
3.42
KA Akureyri
0-2-0
1.73
1-1-0
1.81
0-0-2
1.02
1-0-1
1.43
—
0-1-1
1.89
0-1-1
1.35
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
0.88
1-0-1
1.58
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.51
2-0-0
2.62
0-0-2
1.30
1-1-0
1.77
1-1-0
3.55
—
1-0-1
1.81
0-1-1
3.16
0-1-1
1.09
2-0-0
2.41
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
3.83
1-1-0
3.99
0-1-1
2.05
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
4.12
1-0-1
3.63
—
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.06
2-0-0
3.07
Throttur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.50
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
1.92
2-0-0
3.04
1-1-0
2.27
0-1-1
1.67
—
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
2.16
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
4.27
2-0-0
4.42
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
3.77
1-1-0
4.64
1-1-0
4.39
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.26
—
0-2-0
4.06
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
1.71
0-1-1
2.01
1-0-1
3.86
0-0-2
3.02
0-0-2
2.36
1-1-0
3.27
0-2-0
1.40
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +8.8
Allowed 0.89 -6.0
Differential 0.95 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%5.49%3.30%3.30%—27.47%
17.69%16.48%3.85%4.40%1.10%2.20%35.71%
25.49%3.85%2.20%3.85%1.10%—16.48%
33.30%4.40%3.85%1.10%——12.64%
43.30%1.10%1.10%———5.49%
5+—2.20%————2.20%
Total27.47%35.71%16.48%12.64%5.49%2.20%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.94
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 91

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—44.44%———5.56%50.00%
25.56%——11.11%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.28 +0.11
SD 1.09 1.27 1.81
CV 0.79 1.00 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—22.22%5.56%—50.00%
1—5.56%—11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%5.56%38.89%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.50 -1.83
SD 0.77 1.38 1.50
CV 1.15 0.55 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.79%10.53%5.26%———31.58%
115.79%5.26%10.53%———31.58%
25.26%5.26%————10.53%
3—5.26%10.53%———15.79%
45.26%—5.26%———10.53%
5+———————
Total42.11%26.32%31.58%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 0.89 +0.53
SD 1.39 0.88 1.43
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
116.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
222.22%—5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total55.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.72 +0.72
SD 1.15 0.96 1.74
CV 0.80 1.33 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%22.22%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
2——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.00 -0.83
SD 0.99 1.50 1.76
CV 0.84 0.75 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%—5.56%38.89%
216.67%—5.56%———22.22%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.33 +0.28
SD 1.24 1.28 1.78
CV 0.77 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%—11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.00 +0.44
SD 1.50 1.19 2.06
CV 1.04 1.19 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—11.11%—16.67%
111.11%22.22%11.11%11.11%——55.56%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.72 -0.22
SD 1.47 1.27 2.24
CV 0.98 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%—10.53%———21.05%
15.26%15.79%5.26%———26.32%
2—5.26%—5.26%——10.53%
315.79%5.26%10.53%5.26%——36.84%
4———————
5+—5.26%————5.26%
Total31.58%31.58%26.32%10.53%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 1.16 +0.68
SD 1.42 1.01 1.70
CV 0.77 0.88 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.39 +0.06
SD 1.54 1.20 2.15
CV 1.07 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1285 23 24.19 -1.19 40.0% 17 19 22 24 26 29 30
Valur Reykjavik 1275 23 25.82 -2.82 22.0% 17 20 24 25 28 31 34
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1214 24 20.47 +3.53 90.0% 12 15 18 21 23 25 26
Keflavik IF 1167 22 20.96 +1.04 72.0% 13 15 19 21 23 27 30
KR Reykjavik 1124 22 15.59 +6.41 99.0% 8 11 14 15 17 21 24
Vikingur Reykjavik 1078 16 18.01 -2.01 37.0% 12 13 15 18 20 24 28
Fram Reykjavik 1076 17 15.40 +1.60 75.0% 8 10 13 15 17 20 22
Throttur Reykjavik 1063 16 14.62 +1.38 71.0% 8 9 12 15 17 19 24
KA Akureyri 934 12 10.95 +1.05 71.0% 3 6 9 11 13 15 20
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 890 5 13.99 -8.99 1.0% 5 8 11 14 17 19 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.58%
Strong Edge
45.05%27.47%27.47%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 61.73 Elo pts.
278 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.35 goals
Neutral
-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
4%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.57 * Some Luck: 2.57 to 3.85 * Lucky: 3.85 to 5.14 * Wild Swing: 5.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.54 * Off: 1.54 to 2.06 * Way Off: 2.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.78 * A Surprise: 0.78 to 1.25 * Several Surprises: 1.25 to 1.72 * Many Surprises: 1.72 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.93 points
Lucky
03.218
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.293
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 131.75
1.68
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.39
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.18
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4325641.001.56744
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.178
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1670.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IBV Vestmannaeyjar4.00%19.00%27.00%24.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%——
Valur Reykjavik54.00%30.00%12.00%1.00%2.00%—1.00%———
IA Akranes27.00%35.00%19.00%14.00%2.00%3.00%————
Keflavik IF11.00%11.00%26.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%——
KR Reykjavik—2.00%4.00%1.00%18.00%19.00%22.00%18.00%11.00%5.00%
Fram Reykjavik——4.00%10.00%9.00%18.00%22.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik4.00%2.00%7.00%18.00%18.00%19.00%12.00%14.00%6.00%—
Throttur Reykjavik—1.00%—4.00%16.00%14.00%14.00%18.00%23.00%10.00%
KA Akureyri——1.00%—2.00%1.00%3.00%14.00%26.00%53.00%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur———3.00%9.00%12.00%18.00%15.00%22.00%21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 100% —
Keflavik IF 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
Vikingur Reykjavik 94.00% 6.00%
KR Reykjavik 84.00% 16.00%
Fram Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 67.00% 33.00%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 57.00% 43.00%
KA Akureyri 21.00% 79.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1979-05-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-147.9 941 1123 24.66% 28.31% 47.03%-0.43 +27.0 2
1979-05-12 @ KA Akureyri L 1-347.9 1123 941 47.03% 28.31% 24.66%+0.43 -27.0 0
1979-05-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-238.8 1033 1131 35.51% 28.78% 35.70%-0.13 -25.1 0
1979-05-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-038.8 1131 1033 35.70% 28.78% 35.51%+0.13 +25.1 2
1979-05-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-350.9 1101 1009 57.38% 27.92% 14.70%+0.55 -32.6 0
1979-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-150.9 1009 1101 14.70% 27.92% 57.38%-0.55 +32.6 2
1979-05-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.5 999 1320 12.68% 26.48% 60.84%-0.93 +3.9 1
1979-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-152.5 1320 999 60.84% 26.48% 12.68%+0.93 -3.9 1
1979-05-16 IA Akranes D 0-047.6 1166 1285 32.64% 28.72% 38.64%-0.20 +0.5 1
1979-05-16 @ Keflavik IF D 0-047.6 1285 1166 38.64% 28.72% 32.64%+0.20 -0.5 1
1979-05-29 KR Reykjavik L 0-148.4 1096 1003 57.53% 27.90% 14.57%+0.56 -20.0 0
1979-05-29 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-048.4 1003 1096 14.57% 27.90% 57.53%-0.56 +20.0 3
1979-05-29 KA Akureyri W 3-242.2 1284 968 71.31% 23.94% 4.74%+1.36 +2.0 3
1979-05-29 @ IA Akranes L 2-342.2 968 1284 4.74% 23.94% 71.31%-1.36 -2.0 2
1979-05-29 Keflavik IF D 0-047.4 1156 1166 47.01% 28.71% 24.28%+0.18 -1.9 3
1979-05-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-047.4 1166 1156 24.28% 28.71% 47.01%-0.18 +1.9 2
1979-05-29 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-141.9 1068 1007 54.60% 28.24% 17.16%+0.44 +7.2 2
1979-05-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-241.9 1007 1068 17.16% 28.24% 54.60%-0.44 -7.2 0
1979-05-30 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.3 1042 1316 15.94% 27.23% 56.84%-0.76 +3.2 3
1979-05-30 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.3 1316 1042 56.84% 27.23% 15.94%+0.76 -3.2 2
1979-06-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-045.5 966 1154 24.02% 28.26% 47.72%-0.45 +16.8 4
1979-06-02 @ KA Akureyri L 0-145.5 1154 966 47.72% 28.26% 24.02%+0.45 -16.8 3
1979-06-02 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-027.5 1313 1076 67.31% 25.64% 7.05%+1.07 +9.3 4
1979-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-327.5 1076 1313 7.05% 25.64% 67.31%-1.07 -9.3 0
1979-06-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-029.8 1168 1075 57.54% 27.90% 14.56%+0.56 +23.9 4
1979-06-04 @ Keflavik IF L 0-429.8 1075 1168 14.56% 27.90% 57.54%-0.56 -23.9 2
1979-06-04 IA Akranes L 1-338.7 1023 1286 16.81% 27.39% 55.80%-0.72 -12.1 3
1979-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-138.7 1286 1023 55.80% 27.39% 16.81%+0.72 +12.1 5
1979-06-06 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1000 1045 42.79% 28.81% 28.40%+0.06 -1.0 1
1979-06-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1045 1000 28.40% 28.81% 42.79%-0.06 +1.0 4
1979-06-10 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-242.0 982 999 46.28% 28.74% 24.98%+0.16 -30.9 4
1979-06-10 @ KA Akureyri W 2-042.0 999 982 24.98% 28.74% 46.28%-0.16 +30.9 3
1979-06-11 Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.3 1192 1046 61.68% 27.20% 11.13%+0.75 -4.2 5
1979-06-11 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.3 1046 1192 11.13% 27.20% 61.68%-0.75 +4.2 5
1979-06-11 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-039.7 1011 1051 43.36% 28.80% 27.84%+0.08 +11.2 5
1979-06-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-139.7 1051 1011 27.84% 28.80% 43.36%-0.08 -11.2 2
1979-06-12 IA Akranes W 2-152.5 1067 1298 19.59% 27.80% 52.61%-0.61 +17.2 2
1979-06-12 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-252.5 1298 1067 52.61% 27.80% 19.59%+0.61 -17.2 5
1979-06-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-247.1 1322 1137 64.28% 26.58% 9.14%+0.89 -42.0 4
1979-06-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-047.1 1137 1322 9.14% 26.58% 64.28%-0.89 +42.0 5
1979-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 3-249.7 1281 1280 48.39% 28.66% 22.95%+0.23 +8.6 7
1979-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 2-349.7 1280 1281 22.95% 28.66% 48.39%-0.23 -8.6 4
1979-06-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-246.4 1179 1022 62.43% 27.04% 10.53%+0.79 -40.9 5
1979-06-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-046.4 1022 1179 10.53% 27.04% 62.43%-0.79 +40.9 7
1979-06-16 KA Akureyri W 4-029.9 1040 952 57.15% 27.95% 14.90%+0.54 +24.4 4
1979-06-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-429.9 952 1040 14.90% 27.95% 57.15%-0.54 -24.4 4
1979-06-18 Keflavik IF L 0-433.9 1030 1188 27.55% 28.50% 43.95%-0.35 -39.5 3
1979-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-033.9 1188 1030 43.95% 28.50% 27.55%+0.35 +39.5 7
1979-06-19 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-034.2 1050 1084 44.19% 28.79% 27.02%+0.10 +29.9 7
1979-06-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-334.2 1084 1050 27.02% 28.79% 44.19%-0.10 -29.9 2
1979-06-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-030.0 1138 1054 56.77% 28.00% 15.23%+0.52 +24.8 7
1979-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-430.0 1054 1138 15.23% 28.00% 56.77%-0.52 -24.8 2
1979-06-24 KA Akureyri W 2-137.1 1228 927 70.56% 24.30% 5.14%+1.30 +2.3 9
1979-06-24 @ Keflavik IF L 1-237.1 927 1228 5.14% 24.30% 70.56%-1.30 -2.3 4
1979-06-25 Valur Reykjavik D 0-047.6 1064 1271 22.02% 28.07% 49.91%-0.52 +2.3 5
1979-06-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-047.6 1271 1064 49.91% 28.07% 22.02%+0.52 -2.4 5
1979-06-26 IA Akranes D 1-152.1 1080 1290 21.74% 28.05% 50.22%-0.53 +2.1 8
1979-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.1 1290 1080 50.22% 28.05% 21.74%+0.53 -2.1 8
1979-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 5-139.3 991 1063 39.11% 28.82% 32.07%-0.04 +36.9 5
1979-06-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-539.3 1063 991 32.07% 28.82% 39.11%+0.04 -36.9 7
1979-06-29 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.8 925 1082 27.61% 28.50% 43.88%-0.34 +1.2 5
1979-06-29 @ KA Akureyri D 1-151.8 1082 925 43.88% 28.50% 27.61%+0.34 -1.2 9
1979-06-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-246.1 1288 1163 60.07% 27.51% 12.42%+0.67 -39.3 8
1979-06-30 @ IA Akranes W 2-046.1 1163 1288 12.42% 27.51% 60.07%-0.67 +39.3 9
1979-06-30 Keflavik IF W 3-256.9 1026 1230 22.34% 28.11% 49.55%-0.51 +15.5 9
1979-06-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-356.9 1230 1026 49.55% 28.11% 22.34%+0.51 -15.5 9
1979-07-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-347.1 1029 1067 43.71% 28.80% 27.49%+0.09 -25.5 2
1979-07-01 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-147.1 1067 1029 27.49% 28.80% 43.71%-0.09 +25.5 7
1979-07-01 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-135.1 1269 1028 67.58% 25.54% 6.88%+1.09 +5.4 7
1979-07-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-335.1 1028 1269 6.88% 25.54% 67.58%-1.09 -5.4 5
1979-07-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-151.8 1081 1202 32.28% 28.71% 39.02%-0.21 +0.5 10
1979-07-08 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.8 1202 1081 39.02% 28.71% 32.28%+0.21 -0.5 10
1979-07-08 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.7 926 1042 33.07% 28.73% 38.20%-0.19 +0.4 6
1979-07-08 @ KA Akureyri D 1-151.7 1042 926 38.20% 28.73% 33.07%+0.19 -0.4 10
1979-07-09 Valur Reykjavik L 0-338.8 1214 1274 40.78% 28.82% 30.39%+0.01 -40.4 9
1979-07-09 @ Keflavik IF W 3-038.8 1274 1214 30.39% 28.82% 40.78%-0.01 +40.4 9
1979-07-09 IA Akranes W 1-044.5 1092 1248 27.80% 28.51% 43.69%-0.34 +15.6 9
1979-07-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-144.5 1248 1092 43.69% 28.51% 27.80%+0.34 -15.6 8
1979-07-10 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-248.4 1022 1004 50.31% 28.56% 21.13%+0.29 +8.1 7
1979-07-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-348.4 1004 1022 21.13% 28.56% 50.31%-0.29 -8.1 2
1979-07-13 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-027.5 1233 1030 65.36% 26.27% 8.36%+0.95 +14.4 10
1979-07-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-427.5 1030 1233 8.36% 26.27% 65.36%-0.95 -14.4 7
1979-07-14 Keflavik IF D 0-047.4 996 1174 25.14% 28.34% 46.51%-0.42 +1.8 3
1979-07-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-047.4 1174 996 46.51% 28.34% 25.14%+0.42 -1.8 10
1979-07-14 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.1 1202 1108 57.62% 27.89% 14.49%+0.56 -3.5 11
1979-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.1 1108 1202 14.49% 27.89% 57.62%-0.56 +3.4 10
1979-07-14 KA Akureyri W 5-128.8 1315 926 74.42% 22.25% 3.34%+1.62 +4.6 11
1979-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-528.8 926 1315 3.34% 22.25% 74.42%-1.62 -4.6 6
1979-07-15 Fram Reykjavik W 3-250.5 1041 1082 43.35% 28.80% 27.84%+0.08 +10.0 12
1979-07-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-350.5 1082 1041 27.84% 28.80% 43.35%-0.08 -10.0 10
1979-07-20 IA Akranes L 2-441.0 922 1247 12.39% 26.40% 61.21%-0.95 -8.3 6
1979-07-20 @ KA Akureyri W 4-241.0 1247 922 61.21% 26.40% 12.39%+0.95 +8.3 12
1979-07-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-142.0 1172 1199 45.12% 28.77% 26.11%+0.13 +17.4 12
1979-07-21 @ Keflavik IF L 1-342.0 1199 1172 26.11% 28.77% 45.12%-0.13 -17.4 11
1979-07-22 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-136.5 1051 997 53.96% 28.30% 17.75%+0.41 +18.2 14
1979-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-436.5 997 1051 17.75% 28.30% 53.96%-0.41 -18.2 3
1979-07-23 Fram Reykjavik W 3-243.3 1319 1072 67.92% 25.41% 6.66%+1.11 +2.9 13
1979-07-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-343.3 1072 1319 6.66% 25.41% 67.92%-1.11 -2.9 10
1979-07-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1016 1111 35.87% 28.79% 35.34%-0.12 -0.0 8
1979-07-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1111 1016 35.34% 28.79% 35.87%+0.12 +0.0 11
1979-07-27 Keflavik IF W 1-036.5 1255 1190 55.11% 28.19% 16.71%+0.46 +7.5 14
1979-07-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-136.5 1190 1255 16.71% 28.19% 55.11%-0.46 -7.5 12
1979-07-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-136.5 1181 1016 63.01% 26.90% 10.09%+0.82 +7.9 13
1979-07-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-336.5 1016 1181 10.09% 26.90% 63.01%-0.82 -7.9 8
1979-07-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-542.7 1069 1111 43.06% 28.81% 28.13%+0.07 -46.0 10
1979-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-142.7 1111 1069 28.13% 28.81% 43.06%-0.07 +46.0 13
1979-07-29 KA Akureyri D 2-257.7 979 914 55.10% 28.19% 16.72%+0.46 -2.2 4
1979-07-29 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-257.7 914 979 16.72% 28.19% 55.10%-0.46 +2.2 7
1979-07-30 KR Reykjavik W 1-032.5 1322 1069 68.19% 25.31% 6.50%+1.13 +3.1 15
1979-07-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-132.5 1069 1322 6.50% 25.31% 68.19%-1.13 -3.1 14
1979-08-01 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-146.3 1023 1008 49.93% 28.59% 21.48%+0.28 -17.5 10
1979-08-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-046.3 1008 1023 21.48% 28.59% 49.93%-0.28 +17.5 10
1979-08-02 Valur Reykjavik L 0-328.7 977 1325 11.06% 25.98% 62.96%-1.03 -13.9 4
1979-08-02 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-028.7 1325 977 62.96% 25.98% 11.06%+1.03 +13.9 17
1979-08-02 KR Reykjavik W 2-030.1 1263 1066 65.01% 26.38% 8.62%+0.93 +7.8 16
1979-08-02 @ IA Akranes L 0-230.1 1066 1263 8.62% 26.38% 65.01%-0.93 -7.8 14
1979-08-02 KA Akureyri W 3-026.7 1189 916 69.23% 24.89% 5.88%+1.20 +7.7 15
1979-08-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-326.7 916 1189 5.88% 24.89% 69.23%-1.20 -7.7 7
1979-08-02 Keflavik IF L 1-250.6 1157 1182 45.32% 28.76% 25.92%+0.13 -15.2 13
1979-08-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-150.6 1182 1157 25.92% 28.76% 45.32%-0.13 +15.2 14
1979-08-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-149.5 908 1142 19.34% 27.77% 52.89%-0.62 +29.9 9
1979-08-10 @ KA Akureyri L 1-349.5 1142 908 52.89% 27.77% 19.34%+0.62 -29.9 13
1979-08-11 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.7 963 1005 43.13% 28.81% 28.07%+0.07 -1.1 5
1979-08-11 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-151.7 1005 963 28.07% 28.81% 43.13%-0.07 +1.1 11
1979-08-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-257.7 1058 1197 30.03% 28.62% 41.35%-0.28 +0.6 15
1979-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-257.7 1197 1058 41.35% 28.62% 30.03%+0.28 -0.6 16
1979-08-12 IA Akranes W 2-142.7 1339 1271 55.37% 28.16% 16.47%+0.47 +7.0 19
1979-08-12 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-242.7 1271 1339 16.47% 28.16% 55.37%-0.47 -7.0 16
1979-08-13 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.4 1197 1025 63.44% 26.80% 9.77%+0.84 -4.5 15
1979-08-13 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.4 1025 1197 9.77% 26.80% 63.44%-0.84 +4.5 11
1979-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-244.2 1112 1059 53.91% 28.30% 17.79%+0.41 -35.4 13
1979-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-044.2 1059 1112 17.79% 28.30% 53.91%-0.41 +35.4 17
1979-08-18 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-031.6 1264 962 70.62% 24.27% 5.10%+1.31 +2.4 18
1979-08-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-131.6 962 1264 5.10% 24.27% 70.62%-1.31 -2.4 5
1979-08-18 Valur Reykjavik W 2-041.6 1196 1346 28.51% 28.55% 42.94%-0.32 +28.9 18
1979-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-241.6 1346 1196 42.94% 28.55% 28.51%+0.32 -29.0 19
1979-08-18 KA Akureyri W 1-035.5 1030 938 57.43% 27.91% 14.66%+0.55 +6.7 13
1979-08-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-135.5 938 1030 14.66% 27.91% 57.43%-0.55 -6.7 9
1979-08-19 Keflavik IF W 4-039.8 1006 1193 24.21% 28.27% 47.51%-0.45 +59.7 13
1979-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-439.8 1193 1006 47.51% 28.27% 24.21%+0.45 -59.7 15
1979-08-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-135.9 960 1225 16.62% 27.35% 56.03%-0.73 -7.3 5
1979-08-21 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-035.9 1225 960 56.03% 27.35% 16.62%+0.73 +7.3 20
1979-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-151.9 1094 1037 54.36% 28.26% 17.38%+0.43 -2.9 18
1979-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.9 1037 1094 17.38% 28.26% 54.36%-0.43 +2.9 14
1979-08-22 Fram Reykjavik D 0-048.1 1266 1066 65.22% 26.32% 8.46%+0.94 -5.3 19
1979-08-22 @ IA Akranes D 0-048.1 1066 1266 8.46% 26.32% 65.22%-0.94 +5.3 14
1979-08-22 Keflavik IF D 0-047.4 931 1133 22.55% 28.13% 49.32%-0.50 +2.2 10
1979-08-22 @ KA Akureyri D 0-047.4 1133 931 49.32% 28.13% 22.55%+0.50 -2.2 16
1979-08-22 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-362.8 1317 1077 67.53% 25.56% 6.91%+1.09 -3.2 20
1979-08-22 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-362.8 1077 1317 6.91% 25.56% 67.53%-1.09 +3.2 14
1979-08-29 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-029.4 1080 952 60.33% 27.46% 12.21%+0.68 +15.7 16
1979-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-329.4 952 1080 12.21% 27.46% 60.33%-0.68 -15.7 5
1979-08-30 IA Akranes W 1-039.7 1232 1261 44.87% 28.77% 26.36%+0.12 +10.7 22
1979-08-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-139.7 1261 1232 26.36% 28.77% 44.87%-0.12 -10.7 19
1979-08-30 KR Reykjavik W 1-037.0 1131 1092 52.52% 28.42% 19.06%+0.36 +8.4 18
1979-08-30 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.0 1092 1131 19.06% 28.42% 52.52%-0.36 -8.3 18
1979-08-30 Valur Reykjavik L 2-346.6 1039 1314 15.89% 27.22% 56.90%-0.77 -6.3 14
1979-08-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-246.6 1314 1039 56.90% 27.22% 15.89%+0.77 +6.3 22
1979-09-01 KA Akureyri D 1-152.2 1071 934 61.07% 27.32% 11.61%+0.72 -4.1 15
1979-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.2 934 1071 11.61% 27.32% 61.07%-0.72 +4.1 11
1979-09-08 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-540.4 937 1033 35.72% 28.79% 35.49%-0.13 -39.9 5
1979-09-08 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 5-140.4 1033 937 35.49% 28.79% 35.72%+0.13 +39.9 16
1979-09-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-034.2 1250 1096 62.25% 27.08% 10.67%+0.78 +5.1 21
1979-09-08 @ IA Akranes L 0-134.2 1096 1250 10.67% 27.08% 62.25%-0.78 -5.1 16
1979-09-08 Fram Reykjavik L 0-246.7 1243 1067 63.70% 26.73% 9.57%+0.85 -41.7 22
1979-09-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-046.7 1067 1243 9.57% 26.73% 63.70%-0.85 +41.7 17
1979-09-08 Keflavik IF L 1-255.8 1321 1139 64.05% 26.64% 9.31%+0.87 -20.9 22
1979-09-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-155.8 1139 1321 9.31% 26.64% 64.05%-0.87 +20.9 20
1979-09-09 KA Akureyri W 4-240.9 1083 938 61.64% 27.21% 11.16%+0.75 +7.7 20
1979-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-440.9 938 1083 11.16% 27.21% 61.64%-0.75 -7.7 11
1979-09-14 KR Reykjavik L 0-243.2 1109 1091 50.28% 28.57% 21.16%+0.29 -33.2 17
1979-09-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-043.2 1091 1109 21.16% 28.57% 50.28%-0.29 +33.2 22
1979-09-15 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-132.1 1160 897 68.74% 25.09% 6.17%+1.17 +6.9 22
1979-09-15 @ Keflavik IF L 1-432.1 897 1160 6.17% 25.09% 68.74%-1.17 -6.8 5
1979-09-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-141.5 1091 1202 33.72% 28.75% 37.53%-0.18 -12.8 16
1979-09-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.5 1202 1091 37.53% 28.75% 33.72%+0.18 +12.8 24
1979-09-16 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.7 930 1300 9.95% 25.57% 64.47%-1.11 +4.5 12
1979-09-16 @ KA Akureyri D 1-152.7 1300 930 64.47% 25.57% 9.95%+1.11 -4.5 23
1979-09-16 IA Akranes L 1-244.3 1073 1255 24.70% 28.31% 46.99%-0.43 -9.6 16
1979-09-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-144.3 1255 1073 46.99% 28.31% 24.70%+0.43 +9.6 23

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1979-09-28 IA Akranes D 0-048.0 1295 1265 51.60% 28.48% 19.92%+0.33 -2.7 1
1979-09-28 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-048.0 1265 1295 19.92% 28.48% 51.60%-0.33 +2.7 1

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1979-10-02 Valur Reykjavik W 3-142.4 1267 1292 45.29% 28.76% 25.94%+0.13 +17.3 1-0
1979-10-02 @ IA Akranes L 1-342.4 1292 1267 25.94% 28.76% 45.29%-0.13 -17.3 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1979-06-12 9.14% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1137 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1322 0
2 1979-09-08 9.31% Keflavik IF 1139 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1321 1
3 1979-09-08 9.57% Fram Reykjavik 1067 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1243 0
4 1979-06-16 10.53% KR Reykjavik 1022 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1179 0
5 1979-06-30 12.42% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1163 2 @ IA Akranes 1288 0
6 1979-05-29 14.57% KR Reykjavik 1003 1 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1096 0
7 1979-05-14 14.70% Fram Reykjavik 1009 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1101 1
8 1979-08-16 17.79% KR Reykjavik 1059 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1112 0
9 1979-08-10 19.34% @ KA Akureyri 908 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1142 1
10 1979-06-12 19.59% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1067 2 IA Akranes 1298 1
11 1979-09-14 21.16% KR Reykjavik 1091 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1109 0
12 1979-08-01 21.48% Throttur Reykjavik 1008 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1023 0
13 1979-06-30 22.34% @ KR Reykjavik 1026 3 Keflavik IF 1230 2
14 1979-06-02 24.02% @ KA Akureyri 966 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1154 0
15 1979-08-19 24.21% @ Fram Reykjavik 1006 4 Keflavik IF 1193 0
16 1979-05-12 24.66% @ KA Akureyri 941 3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1123 1
17 1979-06-10 24.98% Throttur Reykjavik 999 2 @ KA Akureyri 982 0
18 1979-08-02 25.92% Keflavik IF 1182 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1157 1
19 1979-07-01 27.49% Vikingur Reykjavik 1067 3 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1029 1
20 1979-07-09 27.80% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1092 1 IA Akranes 1248 0
21 1979-07-29 28.13% Vikingur Reykjavik 1111 5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1069 1
22 1979-08-18 28.51% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1196 2 Valur Reykjavik 1346 0
23 1979-07-09 30.39% Valur Reykjavik 1274 3 @ Keflavik IF 1214 0
24 1979-09-08 35.49% Throttur Reykjavik 1033 5 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 937 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-08-19 59.68 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1006 24.21% Keflavik IF 0 1193 47.51% 28.27%
2 1979-07-29 45.98 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1111 28.13% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1069 43.06% 28.81%
3 1979-06-12 42.03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1137 9.14% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1322 64.28% 26.58%
4 1979-09-08 41.66 Fram Reykjavik 2 1067 9.57% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1243 63.70% 26.73%
5 1979-06-16 40.86 KR Reykjavik 2 1022 10.53% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1179 62.43% 27.04%
6 1979-07-09 40.44 Valur Reykjavik 3 1274 30.39% @ Keflavik IF 0 1214 40.78% 28.82%
7 1979-09-08 39.86 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1033 35.49% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 937 35.72% 28.79%
8 1979-06-18 39.49 Keflavik IF 4 1188 43.95% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1030 27.55% 28.50%
9 1979-06-30 39.33 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1163 12.42% @ IA Akranes 0 1288 60.07% 27.51%
10 1979-06-27 36.91 @ Throttur Reykjavik 5 991 39.11% KR Reykjavik 1 1063 32.07% 28.82%
11 1979-08-16 35.42 KR Reykjavik 2 1059 17.79% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1112 53.91% 28.30%
12 1979-09-14 33.21 KR Reykjavik 2 1091 21.16% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1109 50.28% 28.57%
13 1979-05-14 32.57 Fram Reykjavik 3 1009 14.70% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1101 57.38% 27.92%
14 1979-06-10 30.89 Throttur Reykjavik 2 999 24.98% @ KA Akureyri 0 982 46.28% 28.74%
15 1979-08-10 29.93 @ KA Akureyri 3 908 19.34% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1142 52.89% 27.77%
16 1979-06-19 29.91 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1050 44.19% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1084 27.02% 28.79%
17 1979-08-18 28.95 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1196 28.51% Valur Reykjavik 0 1346 42.94% 28.55%
18 1979-05-12 27.01 @ KA Akureyri 3 941 24.66% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 1123 47.03% 28.31%
19 1979-07-01 25.50 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1067 27.49% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 1029 43.71% 28.80%
20 1979-05-12 25.11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1131 35.70% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1033 35.51% 28.78%
21 1979-06-23 24.83 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1138 56.77% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1054 15.23% 28.00%
22 1979-06-16 24.36 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1040 57.15% KA Akureyri 0 952 14.90% 27.95%
23 1979-06-04 23.88 @ Keflavik IF 4 1168 57.54% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1075 14.56% 27.90%
24 1979-09-08 20.94 Keflavik IF 2 1139 9.31% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1321 64.05% 26.64%
25 1979-05-29 20.00 KR Reykjavik 1 1003 14.57% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1096 57.53% 27.90%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-08-22 62.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1317 67.53% Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1077 6.91% 25.56%
2 1979-07-29 57.7 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 2 979 55.10% KA Akureyri 2 914 16.72% 28.19%
3 1979-08-11 57.7 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1058 30.03% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1197 41.35% 28.62%
4 1979-06-30 56.9 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1026 22.34% Keflavik IF 2 1230 49.55% 28.11%
5 1979-09-08 55.8 Keflavik IF 2 1139 9.31% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1321 64.05% 26.64%
6 1979-09-16 52.7 @ KA Akureyri 1 930 9.95% Valur Reykjavik 1 1300 64.47% 25.57%
7 1979-05-15 52.5 @ KR Reykjavik 1 999 12.68% Valur Reykjavik 1 1320 60.84% 26.48%
8 1979-06-12 52.5 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 2 1067 19.59% IA Akranes 1 1298 52.61% 27.80%
9 1979-08-13 52.4 @ Keflavik IF 1 1197 63.44% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1025 9.77% 26.80%
10 1979-05-30 52.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1042 15.94% Valur Reykjavik 1 1316 56.84% 27.23%
11 1979-06-11 52.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1192 61.68% Fram Reykjavik 1 1046 11.13% 27.20%
12 1979-09-01 52.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1071 61.07% KA Akureyri 1 934 11.61% 27.32%
13 1979-06-26 52.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1080 21.74% IA Akranes 1 1290 50.22% 28.05%
14 1979-07-14 52.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1202 57.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1108 14.49% 27.89%
15 1979-08-21 51.9 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1094 54.36% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1037 17.38% 28.26%
16 1979-06-29 51.8 @ KA Akureyri 1 925 27.61% Fram Reykjavik 1 1082 43.88% 28.50%
17 1979-07-08 51.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1081 32.28% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1202 39.02% 28.71%
18 1979-06-06 51.7 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1000 42.79% Fram Reykjavik 1 1045 28.40% 28.81%
19 1979-07-08 51.7 @ KA Akureyri 1 926 33.07% KR Reykjavik 1 1042 38.20% 28.73%
20 1979-07-26 51.7 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1016 35.87% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1111 35.34% 28.79%
21 1979-08-11 51.7 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 963 43.13% Fram Reykjavik 1 1005 28.07% 28.81%
22 1979-05-14 50.9 Fram Reykjavik 3 1009 14.70% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1101 57.38% 27.92%
23 1979-08-02 50.6 Keflavik IF 2 1182 25.92% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1157 45.32% 28.76%
24 1979-07-15 50.5 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1041 43.35% Fram Reykjavik 2 1082 27.84% 28.80%
25 1979-06-16 49.7 @ IA Akranes 3 1281 48.39% Valur Reykjavik 2 1280 22.95% 28.66%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-08-02 26.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1189 69.23% KA Akureyri 0 916 5.88% 24.89%
2 1979-06-02 27.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1313 67.31% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1076 7.05% 25.64%
3 1979-07-13 27.5 @ IA Akranes 4 1233 65.36% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1030 8.36% 26.27%
4 1979-08-02 28.7 Valur Reykjavik 3 1325 62.96% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 977 11.06% 25.98%
5 1979-07-14 28.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1315 74.42% KA Akureyri 1 926 3.34% 22.25%
6 1979-08-29 29.4 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1080 60.33% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 952 12.21% 27.46%
7 1979-06-04 29.8 @ Keflavik IF 4 1168 57.54% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1075 14.56% 27.90%
8 1979-06-16 29.9 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1040 57.15% KA Akureyri 0 952 14.90% 27.95%
9 1979-06-23 30.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1138 56.77% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1054 15.23% 28.00%
10 1979-08-02 30.1 @ IA Akranes 2 1263 65.01% KR Reykjavik 0 1066 8.62% 26.38%
11 1979-08-18 31.6 @ IA Akranes 1 1264 70.62% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 962 5.10% 24.27%
12 1979-09-15 32.1 @ Keflavik IF 4 1160 68.74% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 897 6.17% 25.09%
13 1979-07-30 32.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1322 68.19% KR Reykjavik 0 1069 6.50% 25.31%
14 1979-06-18 33.9 Keflavik IF 4 1188 43.95% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1030 27.55% 28.50%
15 1979-06-19 34.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1050 44.19% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1084 27.02% 28.79%
16 1979-09-08 34.2 @ IA Akranes 1 1250 62.25% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1096 10.67% 27.08%
17 1979-07-01 35.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1269 67.58% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1028 6.88% 25.54%
18 1979-08-18 35.5 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1030 57.43% KA Akureyri 0 938 14.66% 27.91%
19 1979-08-21 35.9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1225 56.03% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 960 16.62% 27.35%
20 1979-07-22 36.5 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1051 53.96% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 997 17.75% 28.30%
21 1979-07-27 36.5 @ IA Akranes 1 1255 55.11% Keflavik IF 0 1190 16.71% 28.19%
22 1979-07-28 36.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1181 63.01% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1016 10.09% 26.90%
23 1979-08-30 37.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1131 52.52% KR Reykjavik 0 1092 19.06% 28.42%
24 1979-06-24 37.1 @ Keflavik IF 2 1228 70.56% KA Akureyri 1 927 5.14% 24.30%
25 1979-06-04 38.7 IA Akranes 3 1286 55.80% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1023 16.81% 27.39%