1978 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

11.79 points above expected

35 points · 23.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

8.53 points below expected

7 points · 15.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 18 17 1 0 35 45 8 +37 23.2 +11.79
2 IA Akranes 18 13 3 2 29 47 13 +34 22.8 +6.24
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 4 6 20 31 25 +6 17.9 +2.09
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 3 7 19 29 24 +5 18.0 +0.99
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 9 1 8 19 27 31 -4 18.0 +1.03
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 16 23 31 -8 17.5 -1.54
7 Throttur Reykjavik 18 4 6 8 14 22 27 -5 16.6 -2.59
8 KA Akureyri 18 3 5 10 11 14 38 -24 14.3 -3.31
9 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 2 6 10 10 22 37 -15 16.2 -6.17
10 Breidablik 18 3 1 14 7 19 45 -26 15.5 -8.53

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1180 35 23.21 +11.79 100.0% 7 17 21 23 26 29 36
IA Akranes 1162 29 22.76 +6.24 97.6% 8 17 20 23 25 28 34
Keflavik IF 1055 20 17.91 +2.09 75.8% 3 12 15 18 20 24 31
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1040 19 18.01 +0.99 65.9% 6 12 15 18 20 24 31
Vikingur Reykjavik 1023 19 17.97 +1.03 66.6% 5 12 16 18 20 24 31
Fram Reykjavik 988 16 17.54 -1.54 39.2% 5 12 15 18 20 24 30
Throttur Reykjavik 984 14 16.59 -2.59 28.7% 4 11 14 17 19 23 31
FH Hafnarfjordur 968 10 16.17 -6.17 5.7% 2 10 14 16 19 22 30
Breidablik 951 7 15.53 -8.53 1.1% 3 10 13 15 18 22 30
KA Akureyri 926 11 14.31 -3.31 22.2% 3 9 12 14 17 20 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KI TR VR VR
Breidablik
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-2
1.92
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
2.58
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-2
2.43
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
2.93
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
2.60
0-1-1
3.15
1-1-0
2.55
0-2-0
2.70
0-0-2
1.67
0-1-1
2.38
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
3.08
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
3.37
0-1-1
2.61
2-0-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-2
2.78
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.72
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
3.65
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.26
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
1.84
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
3.08
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
2.76
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
2.21
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.36
0-1-1
1.39
0-0-2
2.23
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.98
1-1-0
2.93
0-1-1
1.90
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
2.79
Throttur Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.95
0-2-0
2.84
0-0-2
2.63
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.18
0-1-1
2.55
0-0-2
1.66
1-0-1
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.48
2-0-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.54
1-1-0
4.22
2-0-0
3.60
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.46
Vikingur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.10
1-1-0
3.15
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
2.75
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
2.09

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%9.44%6.67%6.11%1.11%2.22%32.22%
19.44%2.22%3.33%3.33%1.67%0.56%20.56%
26.67%3.33%6.67%3.33%1.67%1.67%23.33%
36.11%3.33%3.33%1.11%13.89%
41.11%1.67%1.67%1.11%5.56%
5+2.22%0.56%1.67%4.44%
Total32.22%20.56%23.33%13.89%5.56%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.55
Mean allowed1.55
StdDev scored1.48
StdDev allowed1.48
Mean total goals/game3.10
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.124
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%11.11%38.89%
15.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+
Total11.11%11.11%27.78%16.67%33.33%100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed2.50
StdDev scored1.06
StdDev allowed1.38
Mean total goals/game3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.343
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%44.44%
15.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total22.22%11.11%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed2.06
StdDev scored1.40
StdDev allowed1.73
Mean total goals/game3.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.141
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%38.89%
111.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
211.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total22.22%27.78%11.11%33.33%5.56%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.36
StdDev allowed1.32
Mean total goals/game3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.053
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
111.11%11.11%
211.11%11.11%22.22%
311.11%11.11%22.22%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%16.67%
Total55.56%16.67%27.78%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.61
Mean allowed0.72
StdDev scored1.91
StdDev allowed0.89
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.036
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
111.11%5.56%11.11%27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
311.11%11.11%22.22%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%44.44%11.11%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.58
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.011
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%16.67%61.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%
25.56%11.11%16.67%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+
Total27.78%27.78%11.11%5.56%27.78%100%

KA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.78
Mean allowed2.11
StdDev scored1.11
StdDev allowed2.14
Mean total goals/game2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.085
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%38.89%
316.67%16.67%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.72
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored1.32
StdDev allowed1.04
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.303
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%16.67%5.56%27.78%
3
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%16.67%5.56%100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.31
StdDev allowed1.25
Mean total goals/game2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.216
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%
122.22%22.22%
211.11%11.11%22.22%
322.22%5.56%27.78%
45.56%5.56%11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.50
Mean allowed0.44
StdDev scored1.42
StdDev allowed0.70
Mean total goals/game2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.527
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
122.22%5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.38
StdDev allowed1.74
Mean total goals/game3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.037
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 35 23.2 +11.79
2 IA Akranes 29 22.8 +6.24
3 Keflavik IF 20 17.9 +2.09
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 18.0 +1.03
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 18.0 +0.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 7 15.5 -8.53
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 10 16.2 -6.17
3 KA Akureyri 11 14.3 -3.31
4 Throttur Reykjavik 14 16.6 -2.59
5 Fram Reykjavik 16 17.5 -1.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 16 May 17 – Aug 19 1 in 26,401
2 IA Akranes 8 May 20 – Jun 21 1 in 195
3 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 13
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jul 30 – Aug 11 1 in 12
5 KA Akureyri 2 Jul 15 – Jul 29 1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 8 May 20 – Jul 2 1 in 887
2 Throttur Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 12 1 in 44
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 27 – Jun 14 1 in 19
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 2 – Jul 16 1 in 16
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 20 – Sep 9 1 in 12

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 18 May 17 – Sep 10 1 in 176
2 IA Akranes 9 May 16 – Jun 21 1 in 16
3 Keflavik IF 6 Jul 30 – Sep 9 1 in 16
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 18 – Jul 9 1 in 9
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 9 May 13 – Jul 2 1 in 53
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 May 16 – Jun 21 1 in 25
3 Throttur Reykjavik 7 Jul 1 – Aug 20 1 in 16
4 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jul 29 – Sep 9 1 in 15
5 Keflavik IF 4 May 16 – Jun 3 1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik42.89%25.88%13.51%7.45%4.24%2.76%1.78%0.89%0.46%0.14%
IA Akranes36.28%27.62%14.64%8.67%5.15%3.14%2.18%1.32%0.66%0.34%
Keflavik IF4.06%9.56%13.52%13.52%12.95%12.85%10.88%9.85%7.79%5.02%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar4.58%8.85%13.55%14.53%13.36%12.72%10.35%9.71%7.19%5.16%
Vikingur Reykjavik3.66%8.71%12.57%13.43%14.20%12.73%11.38%10.02%7.81%5.49%
Fram Reykjavik3.60%7.06%10.44%12.04%12.81%12.85%12.88%11.04%10.13%7.15%
Throttur Reykjavik1.90%4.79%8.26%10.77%11.87%12.64%12.88%12.90%12.97%11.02%
KA Akureyri0.44%1.49%2.52%4.49%6.45%7.79%10.96%14.50%20.43%30.93%
FH Hafnarfjordur1.52%3.56%6.08%8.66%10.43%11.97%13.48%14.89%15.02%14.39%
Breidablik1.07%2.48%4.91%6.44%8.54%10.55%13.23%14.88%17.54%20.36%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.4% 0.6%
IA Akranes 99.0% 1.0%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 87.6% 12.3%
Keflavik IF 87.2% 12.8%
Vikingur Reykjavik 86.7% 13.3%
Fram Reykjavik 82.7% 17.3%
Throttur Reykjavik 76.0% 24.0%
FH Hafnarfjordur 70.6% 29.4%
Breidablik 62.1% 37.9%
KA Akureyri 48.6% 51.4%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1978-05-13 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1025 983 48.1% 23.0% 28.9% -0.4 1
1978-05-13 @ Breidablik D 2-2 983 1025 28.9% 23.0% 48.1% +0.4 1
1978-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1030 1026 43.0% 23.3% 33.7% -9.2 0
1978-05-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1026 1030 33.7% 23.3% 43.0% +9.2 3
1978-05-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1032 1009 45.6% 23.2% 31.2% -0.2 1
1978-05-16 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1009 1032 31.2% 23.2% 45.6% +0.3 1
1978-05-16 IA Akranes D 2-2 996 1077 31.4% 23.0% 45.6% +0.2 1
1978-05-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1077 996 45.6% 23.0% 31.4% -0.2 1
1978-05-17 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1082 1016 51.2% 22.7% 26.1% +9.0 3
1978-05-17 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1016 1082 26.1% 22.7% 51.2% -9.0 0
1978-05-20 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1009 984 46.0% 23.2% 30.9% -0.4 2
1978-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 984 1009 30.9% 23.2% 46.0% +0.4 2
1978-05-20 Breidablik W 4-0 1076 1025 49.4% 22.9% 27.7% +12.4 4
1978-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1025 1076 27.7% 22.9% 49.4% -12.3 1
1978-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1031 1021 43.9% 23.3% 32.8% -4.5 1
1978-05-20 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1021 1031 32.8% 23.3% 43.9% +4.5 3
1978-05-21 Valur Reykjavik L 2-5 1036 1091 34.7% 23.2% 42.0% -8.3 3
1978-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-2 1091 1036 42.0% 23.2% 34.7% +8.3 6
1978-05-22 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-1 1007 996 44.0% 23.3% 32.8% +9.1 3
1978-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 996 1007 32.8% 23.3% 44.0% -9.1 1
1978-05-22 IA Akranes L 0-5 984 1089 28.5% 22.7% 48.8% -15.5 2
1978-05-22 @ KA Akureyri W 5-0 1089 984 48.8% 22.7% 28.5% +15.5 7
1978-05-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1013 1016 41.9% 23.3% 34.7% -9.1 1
1978-05-27 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1016 1013 34.7% 23.3% 41.9% +9.1 6
1978-05-27 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1104 969 59.5% 21.1% 19.4% +2.5 10
1978-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 969 1104 19.4% 21.1% 59.5% -2.5 2
1978-05-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1025 1009 44.7% 23.2% 32.0% +10.7 6
1978-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1009 1025 32.0% 23.2% 44.7% -10.6 2
1978-05-27 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1099 1027 52.0% 22.6% 25.4% +3.0 9
1978-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1027 1099 25.4% 22.6% 52.0% -3.0 1
1978-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 987 1027 36.8% 23.3% 39.9% +8.7 4
1978-05-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1027 987 39.9% 23.3% 36.8% -8.7 3
1978-06-02 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1025 966 50.4% 22.8% 26.8% +3.4 9
1978-06-02 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 966 1025 26.8% 22.8% 50.4% -3.4 2
1978-06-03 IA Akranes L 1-7 998 1107 28.1% 22.6% 49.3% -15.0 2
1978-06-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 7-1 1107 998 49.3% 22.6% 28.1% +15.0 13
1978-06-03 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1024 996 46.3% 23.1% 30.6% -0.4 2
1978-06-03 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 996 1024 30.6% 23.1% 46.3% +0.4 5
1978-06-04 Breidablik W 3-1 1019 1003 44.6% 23.2% 32.2% +6.4 6
1978-06-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1003 1019 32.2% 23.2% 44.6% -6.4 1
1978-06-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1122 1029 54.6% 22.2% 23.3% +3.0 16
1978-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1029 1122 23.3% 22.2% 54.6% -3.0 9
1978-06-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 996 1036 36.9% 23.3% 39.8% +0.0 6
1978-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1036 996 39.8% 23.3% 36.9% -0.1 7
1978-06-11 Keflavik IF L 0-2 997 1024 38.7% 23.4% 37.9% -8.5 1
1978-06-11 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1024 997 37.9% 23.4% 38.7% +8.5 5
1978-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1102 983 57.6% 21.6% 20.8% +2.5 12
1978-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 983 1102 20.8% 21.6% 57.6% -2.5 2
1978-06-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1036 1105 32.9% 23.1% 44.0% -10.9 7
1978-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1105 1036 44.0% 23.1% 32.9% +10.9 15
1978-06-14 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 981 1026 36.1% 23.3% 40.6% -3.8 2
1978-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1026 981 40.6% 23.3% 36.1% +3.8 12
1978-06-14 Breidablik W 1-0 1025 989 47.4% 23.1% 29.5% +3.6 10
1978-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 989 1025 29.5% 23.1% 47.4% -3.6 1
1978-06-14 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1032 963 51.7% 22.6% 25.7% -5.1 5
1978-06-14 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 963 1032 25.7% 22.6% 51.7% +5.1 5
1978-06-14 IA Akranes L 2-4 1025 1125 29.1% 22.7% 48.2% -5.2 6
1978-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1125 1025 48.2% 22.7% 29.1% +5.2 19
1978-06-15 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1116 997 57.6% 21.6% 20.8% +2.7 18
1978-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 997 1116 20.8% 21.6% 57.6% -2.7 6
1978-06-17 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1030 1020 43.8% 23.3% 32.9% -5.0 12
1978-06-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1020 1030 32.9% 23.3% 43.8% +5.0 9
1978-06-18 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1130 1027 55.8% 21.9% 22.3% +7.8 22
1978-06-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1027 1130 22.3% 21.9% 55.8% -7.8 5
1978-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 968 1029 34.0% 23.2% 42.8% +0.2 6
1978-06-18 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1029 968 42.8% 23.2% 34.0% -0.2 11
1978-06-18 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 994 977 44.8% 23.2% 32.0% -0.2 7
1978-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 977 994 32.0% 23.2% 44.8% +0.2 3
1978-06-19 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 985 1118 25.3% 22.1% 52.5% -7.3 1
1978-06-19 @ Breidablik W 4-1 1118 985 52.5% 22.1% 25.3% +7.3 21
1978-06-21 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 977 1025 35.8% 23.3% 41.0% +0.1 4
1978-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1025 977 41.0% 23.3% 35.8% -0.1 10
1978-06-21 IA Akranes L 2-3 1028 1138 28.0% 22.6% 49.4% -3.1 11
1978-06-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1138 1028 49.4% 22.6% 28.0% +3.1 25
1978-06-21 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1019 1025 41.7% 23.3% 35.0% -0.2 6
1978-06-21 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1025 1019 35.0% 23.3% 41.7% +0.1 13
1978-06-22 KA Akureyri W 5-0 1126 968 61.8% 20.5% 17.7% +10.0 24
1978-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 968 1126 17.7% 20.5% 61.8% -10.0 6
1978-06-23 Breidablik W 4-2 994 978 44.7% 23.2% 32.1% +5.7 10
1978-06-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-4 978 994 32.1% 23.2% 44.7% -5.7 1
1978-06-26 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-5 958 1025 33.2% 23.1% 43.7% -8.0 6
1978-06-26 @ KA Akureyri W 5-2 1025 958 43.7% 23.1% 33.2% +8.0 13
1978-07-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1025 1025 42.4% 23.3% 34.3% +3.9 16
1978-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1025 1025 34.3% 23.3% 42.4% -3.9 11
1978-07-01 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1141 1136 43.2% 23.3% 33.5% -4.9 25
1978-07-01 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1136 1141 33.5% 23.3% 43.2% +4.9 27
1978-07-01 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 950 999 35.5% 23.3% 41.2% +0.1 7
1978-07-01 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 999 950 41.2% 23.3% 35.5% -0.1 11
1978-07-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 972 977 41.7% 23.3% 34.9% -17.1 1
1978-07-02 @ Breidablik W 4-0 977 972 34.9% 23.3% 41.7% +17.1 7
1978-07-02 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1033 1019 44.4% 23.2% 32.4% -5.0 13
1978-07-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1019 1033 32.4% 23.2% 44.4% +5.0 9
1978-07-08 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1136 999 59.6% 21.1% 19.3% +2.2 28
1978-07-08 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 999 1136 19.3% 21.1% 59.6% -2.2 11
1978-07-08 Breidablik L 0-3 950 955 41.8% 23.3% 34.8% -13.1 7
1978-07-08 @ KA Akureyri W 3-0 955 950 34.8% 23.3% 41.8% +13.1 4
1978-07-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1028 1021 43.3% 23.3% 33.4% -4.9 13
1978-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1021 1028 33.4% 23.3% 43.3% +4.9 14
1978-07-09 Keflavik IF W 2-0 994 1024 38.3% 23.4% 38.4% +8.4 10
1978-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1024 994 38.4% 23.4% 38.3% -8.5 9
1978-07-09 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1029 1141 27.7% 22.5% 49.8% -9.4 16
1978-07-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1141 1029 49.8% 22.5% 27.7% +9.4 30
1978-07-15 IA Akranes L 0-3 968 1138 21.7% 21.2% 57.0% -7.5 4
1978-07-15 @ Breidablik W 3-0 1138 968 57.0% 21.2% 21.7% +7.5 31
1978-07-15 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1026 1016 44.0% 23.3% 32.8% -4.7 14
1978-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1016 1026 32.8% 23.3% 44.0% +4.7 12
1978-07-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 937 1003 33.3% 23.2% 43.5% +4.9 10
1978-07-15 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1003 937 43.5% 23.2% 33.3% -4.9 10
1978-07-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 997 1019 39.3% 23.4% 37.3% -4.6 11
1978-07-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1019 997 37.3% 23.4% 39.3% +4.6 19
1978-07-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1150 1023 58.5% 21.3% 20.1% +7.1 33
1978-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1023 1150 20.1% 21.3% 58.5% -7.1 13
1978-07-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 998 1022 39.1% 23.4% 37.5% -8.6 10
1978-07-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1022 998 37.5% 23.4% 39.1% +8.6 17
1978-07-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1016 992 45.7% 23.2% 31.2% +3.8 16
1978-07-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 992 1016 31.2% 23.2% 45.7% -3.8 11
1978-07-25 Breidablik W 2-0 1024 960 50.9% 22.7% 26.4% +6.2 22
1978-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 960 1024 26.4% 22.7% 50.9% -6.2 4
1978-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1020 1157 25.0% 22.1% 53.0% -5.9 12
1978-07-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1157 1020 53.0% 22.1% 25.0% +5.9 36
1978-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1146 989 61.7% 20.5% 17.7% +4.3 34
1978-07-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 989 1146 17.7% 20.5% 61.7% -4.3 10
1978-07-29 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 942 1030 30.5% 22.9% 46.6% +14.3 13
1978-07-29 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1030 942 46.6% 22.9% 30.5% -14.3 22
1978-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1163 1030 59.1% 21.2% 19.7% +2.5 39
1978-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1030 1163 19.7% 21.2% 59.1% -2.5 17
1978-07-30 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 954 1019 33.4% 23.2% 43.5% -3.8 4
1978-07-30 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1019 954 43.5% 23.2% 33.4% +3.8 19
1978-07-30 Keflavik IF L 1-2 989 1014 38.8% 23.4% 37.8% -4.3 11
1978-07-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1014 989 37.8% 23.4% 38.8% +4.3 15
1978-08-01 IA Akranes L 0-2 1016 1150 25.2% 22.1% 52.6% -6.0 22
1978-08-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1150 1016 52.6% 22.1% 25.2% +6.0 37
1978-08-02 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 985 1165 20.8% 21.0% 58.2% -5.0 10
1978-08-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1165 985 58.2% 21.0% 20.8% +5.0 42
1978-08-02 Breidablik W 3-1 1019 950 51.5% 22.6% 25.9% +5.3 18
1978-08-02 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 950 1019 25.9% 22.6% 51.5% -5.3 4
1978-08-02 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1023 956 51.4% 22.6% 26.0% +3.3 22
1978-08-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 956 1023 26.0% 22.6% 51.4% -3.3 13
1978-08-11 Keflavik IF L 0-5 953 1024 32.7% 23.1% 44.2% -17.4 13
1978-08-11 @ KA Akureyri W 5-0 1024 953 44.2% 23.1% 32.7% +17.4 21
1978-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 945 1028 31.2% 23.0% 45.9% +9.7 7
1978-08-12 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1028 945 45.9% 23.0% 31.2% -9.7 17
1978-08-12 Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-0 1156 1027 58.8% 21.3% 19.9% +11.3 40
1978-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 1027 1156 19.9% 21.3% 58.8% -11.3 22
1978-08-12 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 984 1170 20.3% 20.8% 58.9% -4.2 11
1978-08-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1170 984 58.9% 20.8% 20.3% +4.2 45
1978-08-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-4 1010 980 46.6% 23.1% 30.3% -0.2 23
1978-08-13 @ Fram Reykjavik D 4-4 980 1010 30.3% 23.1% 46.6% +0.2 11
1978-08-19 KA Akureyri W 6-2 1018 936 53.3% 22.4% 24.4% +7.8 20
1978-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-6 936 1018 24.4% 22.4% 53.3% -7.8 13
1978-08-19 IA Akranes D 2-2 1041 1167 26.1% 22.3% 51.6% +0.5 22
1978-08-19 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1167 1041 51.6% 22.3% 26.1% -0.5 41
1978-08-19 Breidablik W 4-2 1175 955 68.1% 18.4% 13.5% +2.5 48
1978-08-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 955 1175 13.5% 18.4% 68.1% -2.5 7
1978-08-20 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 980 980 42.5% 23.3% 34.2% -0.2 12
1978-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 980 980 34.2% 23.3% 42.5% +0.2 12
1978-08-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1015 1010 43.2% 23.3% 33.5% +11.0 25
1978-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1010 1015 33.5% 23.3% 43.2% -11.0 23
1978-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1167 1026 60.1% 21.0% 19.0% -1.2 42
1978-08-22 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1026 1167 19.0% 21.0% 60.1% +1.2 21
1978-08-22 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 928 1177 15.6% 18.7% 65.7% +1.4 14
1978-08-22 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1177 928 65.7% 18.7% 15.6% -1.5 49
1978-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 952 980 38.5% 23.4% 38.1% -10.4 7
1978-08-23 @ Breidablik W 4-1 980 952 38.1% 23.4% 38.5% +10.4 15
1978-08-23 Keflavik IF L 1-3 999 1042 36.4% 23.3% 40.3% -7.0 23
1978-08-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1042 999 40.3% 23.3% 36.4% +7.0 25
1978-08-24 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1026 980 48.7% 22.9% 28.3% +3.5 28
1978-08-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 980 1026 28.3% 22.9% 48.7% -3.5 12
1978-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1027 991 47.4% 23.1% 29.5% +10.0 24
1978-08-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 991 1027 29.5% 23.1% 47.4% -10.0 15
1978-09-07 KA Akureyri W 1-0 981 929 49.4% 22.9% 27.8% +3.5 18
1978-09-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 929 981 27.8% 22.9% 49.4% -3.5 14
1978-09-09 Breidablik L 1-3 976 942 47.2% 23.1% 29.8% -8.6 12
1978-09-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 942 976 29.8% 23.1% 47.2% +8.6 10
1978-09-09 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1037 992 48.6% 22.9% 28.4% +3.1 27
1978-09-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 992 1037 28.4% 22.9% 48.6% -3.1 23
1978-09-09 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1049 1030 45.1% 23.2% 31.7% +6.3 28
1978-09-09 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1030 1049 31.7% 23.2% 45.1% -6.3 28
1978-09-10 IA Akranes W 1-0 1176 1166 43.9% 23.3% 32.9% +4.0 52
1978-09-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1166 1176 32.9% 23.3% 43.9% -4.0 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1978-06-14 25.74% KA Akureyri 963 3 @ Keflavik IF 1032 2
2 1978-09-09 29.76% Breidablik 942 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 976 1
3 1978-07-29 30.49% @ KA Akureyri 942 3 Fram Reykjavik 1030 0
4 1978-08-12 31.16% @ Breidablik 945 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1028 0
5 1978-07-02 32.38% Keflavik IF 1019 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1033 0
6 1978-07-15 32.76% Keflavik IF 1016 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1026 1
7 1978-05-20 32.80% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1021 3 @ Keflavik IF 1031 2
8 1978-06-17 32.90% Vikingur Reykjavik 1020 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1030 0
9 1978-07-15 33.33% @ KA Akureyri 937 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1003 0
10 1978-07-08 33.38% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1021 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1028 0
11 1978-07-01 33.51% Valur Reykjavik 1136 1 @ IA Akranes 1141 0
12 1978-05-16 33.73% Vikingur Reykjavik 1026 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1030 0
13 1978-05-27 34.74% Fram Reykjavik 1016 2 @ Breidablik 1013 0
14 1978-07-08 34.84% Breidablik 955 3 @ KA Akureyri 950 0
15 1978-07-02 34.93% FH Hafnarfjordur 977 4 @ Breidablik 972 0
16 1978-05-28 36.81% @ Throttur Reykjavik 987 2 Vikingur Reykjavik 1027 0
17 1978-07-15 37.33% Fram Reykjavik 1019 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 997 0
18 1978-07-22 37.55% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1022 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 998 0
19 1978-07-30 37.81% Keflavik IF 1014 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 989 1
20 1978-06-11 37.91% Keflavik IF 1024 2 @ Breidablik 997 0
21 1978-08-23 38.14% Throttur Reykjavik 980 4 @ Breidablik 952 1
22 1978-07-09 38.27% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 994 2 Keflavik IF 1024 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-08-11 17.39 Keflavik IF 5 1024 44.24% @ KA Akureyri 0 953 32.66%
2 1978-07-02 17.13 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 977 34.93% @ Breidablik 0 972 41.73%
3 1978-05-22 15.53 IA Akranes 5 1089 48.82% @ KA Akureyri 0 984 28.52%
4 1978-06-03 15.01 IA Akranes 7 1107 49.34% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 998 28.06%
5 1978-07-29 14.32 @ KA Akureyri 3 942 30.49% Fram Reykjavik 0 1030 46.61%
6 1978-07-08 13.13 Breidablik 3 955 34.84% @ KA Akureyri 0 950 41.82%
7 1978-05-20 12.35 @ IA Akranes 4 1076 49.39% Breidablik 0 1025 27.74%
8 1978-08-12 11.30 @ IA Akranes 5 1156 58.78% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1027 19.92%
9 1978-08-20 11.03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1015 43.24% Fram Reykjavik 0 1010 33.46%
10 1978-06-13 10.88 Valur Reykjavik 3 1105 43.95% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1036 32.93%
11 1978-05-27 10.65 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1025 44.73% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1009 32.04%
12 1978-08-23 10.38 Throttur Reykjavik 4 980 38.14% @ Breidablik 1 952 38.51%
13 1978-06-22 10.05 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1126 61.84% KA Akureyri 0 968 17.66%
14 1978-08-31 9.97 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1027 47.40% Throttur Reykjavik 0 991 29.54%
15 1978-08-12 9.72 @ Breidablik 2 945 31.16% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1028 45.87%
16 1978-07-09 9.40 Valur Reykjavik 3 1141 49.77% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1029 27.68%
17 1978-05-16 9.24 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1026 33.73% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1030 42.97%
18 1978-05-22 9.15 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1007 43.95% Throttur Reykjavik 1 996 32.78%
19 1978-05-27 9.06 Fram Reykjavik 2 1016 34.74% @ Breidablik 0 1013 41.93%
20 1978-05-17 8.99 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1082 51.20% Fram Reykjavik 0 1016 26.14%
21 1978-05-28 8.70 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 987 36.81% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1027 39.87%
22 1978-09-09 8.64 Breidablik 3 942 29.76% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 976 47.17%
23 1978-07-22 8.57 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1022 37.55% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 998 39.10%
24 1978-06-11 8.51 Keflavik IF 2 1024 37.91% @ Breidablik 0 997 38.74%
25 1978-07-09 8.45 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 994 38.27% Keflavik IF 0 1024 38.38%