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1978 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

35 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1967.0

Relegated

Breidablik

7 pts

FH Hafnarfjordur · 10 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

6.38 points above expected

35 points · 28.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

5.31 points below expected

7 points · 12.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 17 1 0 35 45 8 +37 28.62 +6.38
2 IA Akranes 18 13 3 2 29 47 13 +34 27.81 +1.19
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 4 6 20 31 25 +6 18.24 +1.76
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 3 7 19 29 24 +5 19.04 -0.04
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 9 1 8 19 27 31 -4 17.71 +1.29
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 16 23 31 -8 17.66 -1.66
7 Throttur Reykjavik 18 4 6 8 14 22 27 -5 13.57 +0.43
8 KA Akureyri 18 3 5 10 11 14 38 -24 10.27 +0.73
9 FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated 18 2 6 10 10 22 37 -15 14.77 -4.77
10 Breidablik Relegated 18 3 1 14 7 19 45 -26 12.31 -5.31

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 35 28.62 +6.38
2 Keflavik IF 20 18.24 +1.76
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 17.71 +1.29
4 IA Akranes 29 27.81 +1.19
5 KA Akureyri 11 10.27 +0.73

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 7 12.31 -5.31
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 10 14.77 -4.77
3 Fram Reykjavik 16 17.66 -1.66
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 19 19.04 -0.04
5 Throttur Reykjavik 14 13.57 +0.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 16 May 17 – Aug 19 1 in 449
2 KA Akureyri 2 Jul 15 – Jul 29 1 in 35
3 IA Akranes 8 May 20 – Jun 21 1 in 21
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 8
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jul 2 – Jul 9 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 8 May 20 – Jul 2 1 in 193
2 Throttur Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 12 1 in 13
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 2 – Jul 16 1 in 12
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 27 – Jun 14 1 in 7
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 20 – Sep 9 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 18 May 17 – Sep 10 1 in 15
2 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 28 – Jun 10 1 in 13
3 Keflavik IF 6 Jul 30 – Sep 9 1 in 13
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 18 – Jul 9 1 in 12
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Aug 19 – Sep 9 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Breidablik 9 May 13 – Jul 2 1 in 42
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 May 16 – Jun 21 1 in 17
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 19 – Sep 10 1 in 16
4 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jul 29 – Sep 9 1 in 14
5 Keflavik IF 4 May 16 – Jun 3 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik 1372 35 +18 9 8.2 +0.8
IA Akranes 1297 29 +6 6 7.2 -1.2
Keflavik IF 1114 20 +119 9 5.9 +3.1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1057 19 +17 7 6.1 +0.9
Vikingur Reykjavik 1016 19 +17 6 5.1 +0.9
Fram Reykjavik 874 16 -81 1 3.5 -2.5
Throttur Reykjavik 896 14 +21 5 4.0 +1.0
KA Akureyri 781 11 -94 1 2.7 -1.7
FH Hafnarfjordur 858 10 -62 2 4.3 -2.3
Breidablik 842 7 +39 4 2.9 +1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KI TR VR VR
Breidablik —
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
1.15
1-0-1
1.40
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
0.65
0-0-2
2.02
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
3.38
 —
0-1-1
2.20
0-0-2
0.94
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
4.00
1-1-0
2.34
0-2-0
2.90
0-0-2
0.77
0-1-1
1.89
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.42
1-1-0
3.43
 —
0-0-2
1.06
1-0-1
2.13
1-0-1
4.25
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
3.38
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-2
2.82
IA Akranes
2-0-0
4.48
2-0-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.58
 —
1-1-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
4.50
1-1-0
4.66
0-0-2
2.65
2-0-0
4.55
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
4.23
2-0-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.49
0-1-1
1.09
 —
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
1.34
1-0-1
3.07
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
2.51
1-1-0
1.62
1-0-1
1.38
0-0-2
0.89
0-1-1
1.52
 —
1-0-1
1.60
0-1-1
2.07
0-1-1
0.57
0-0-2
1.77
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.80
0-1-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.38
0-1-1
1.13
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
4.02
 —
1-1-0
3.56
0-0-2
1.07
2-0-0
2.83
Throttur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.10
0-2-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.24
0-1-1
0.98
0-1-1
1.80
1-1-0
3.55
0-1-1
2.06
 —
0-0-2
0.69
1-0-1
1.89
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
4.87
2-0-0
4.45
2-0-0
2.97
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.96
 —
2-0-0
4.30
Vikingur Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
2.81
0-0-2
1.08
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-2
2.80
1-0-1
3.74
0-0-2
1.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +7.6
Allowed 0.93 -7.4
Differential 0.95 +3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%9.44%6.67%6.11%1.11%2.22%32.22%
19.44%2.22%3.33%3.33%1.67%0.56%20.56%
26.67%3.33%6.67%3.33%1.67%1.67%23.33%
36.11%3.33%3.33%1.11%——13.89%
41.11%1.67%1.67%—1.11%—5.56%
5+2.22%0.56%1.67%———4.44%
Total32.22%20.56%23.33%13.89%5.56%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.22
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
1——5.56%11.11%11.11%—27.78%
25.56%—5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%27.78%16.67%33.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.50 -1.44
SD 1.06 1.38 2.01
CV 1.00 0.55 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
1——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%11.11%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.06 -0.83
SD 1.40 1.73 2.07
CV 1.14 0.84 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%22.22%——38.89%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%11.11%33.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.72 -0.44
SD 1.36 1.32 1.95
CV 1.07 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%—————11.11%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total55.56%16.67%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.72 +1.89
SD 1.91 0.89 2.08
CV 0.73 1.24 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%44.44%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.33 +0.28
SD 1.58 1.08 1.90
CV 0.98 0.81 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%—5.56%—16.67%61.11%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
2——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%11.11%5.56%—27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.11 -1.33
SD 1.11 2.14 2.33
CV 1.43 1.01 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.39 +0.33
SD 1.32 1.04 1.91
CV 0.77 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%—5.56%——38.89%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
25.56%—16.67%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.50 -0.28
SD 1.31 1.25 1.60
CV 1.07 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
122.22%—————22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
322.22%5.56%————27.78%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.44 +2.06
SD 1.42 0.70 1.21
CV 0.57 1.59 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
122.22%——5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.72 -0.22
SD 1.38 1.74 2.26
CV 0.92 1.01 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1372 35 28.62 +6.38 100.0% 20 24 27 28 31 33 35
IA Akranes 1297 29 27.81 +1.19 73.0% 21 23 26 28 30 33 35
Keflavik IF 1114 20 18.24 +1.76 72.0% 9 12 15 18 21 24 26
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1057 19 19.04 -0.04 58.0% 11 13 17 19 22 24 28
Vikingur Reykjavik 1016 19 17.71 +1.29 71.0% 8 10 16 18 20 23 28
Throttur Reykjavik 896 14 13.57 +0.43 65.0% 5 8 11 14 16 19 22
Fram Reykjavik 874 16 17.66 -1.66 38.0% 7 11 15 18 20 24 25
FH Hafnarfjordur 858 10 14.77 -4.77 16.0% 5 8 12 15 17 20 24
Breidablik 842 7 12.31 -5.31 5.0% 5 7 10 12 14 17 20
KA Akureyri 781 11 10.27 +0.73 70.0% 5 5 8 10 12 15 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
43.33%17.78%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
176 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.66 * Some Luck: 2.66 to 3.99 * Lucky: 3.99 to 5.32 * Wild Swing: 5.32 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1 * Close: 1 to 1.5 * Off: 1.5 to 2 * Way Off: 2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.15 * Several Surprises: 1.15 to 1.58 * Many Surprises: 1.58 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
03.328
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.253
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Valur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Breidablik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 200.58
2.24
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
80%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Few
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.32
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.37
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik57.00%39.00%4.00%———————
IA Akranes43.00%50.00%5.00%2.00%——————
Keflavik IF—4.00%21.00%25.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%5.00%3.00%—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—3.00%30.00%23.00%20.00%13.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%—
Vikingur Reykjavik—3.00%10.00%25.00%21.00%22.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%
Fram Reykjavik—1.00%22.00%16.00%15.00%17.00%15.00%5.00%7.00%2.00%
Throttur Reykjavik——3.00%3.00%10.00%9.00%21.00%23.00%22.00%9.00%
KA Akureyri————1.00%2.00%5.00%16.00%20.00%56.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——5.00%5.00%16.00%14.00%17.00%22.00%11.00%10.00%
Breidablik———1.00%5.00%7.00%14.00%21.00%32.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 98.00% 2.00%
Keflavik IF 97.00% 3.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 94.00% 6.00%
Fram Reykjavik 91.00% 9.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 79.00% 21.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 69.00% 31.00%
Breidablik 48.00% 52.00%
KA Akureyri 24.00% 76.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1978-05-13 KA Akureyri D 2-260.1 1019 868 62.37% 18.64% 18.98%+0.94 -3.5 1
1978-05-13 @ Breidablik D 2-260.1 868 1019 18.98% 18.64% 62.37%-0.94 +3.5 1
1978-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-242.2 1056 998 52.33% 18.81% 28.86%+0.42 -45.0 0
1978-05-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-042.2 998 1056 28.86% 18.81% 52.33%-0.42 +45.0 2
1978-05-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-260.1 1028 970 52.39% 18.81% 28.80%+0.42 -1.8 1
1978-05-16 @ Keflavik IF D 2-260.1 970 1028 28.80% 18.81% 52.39%-0.42 +1.8 1
1978-05-16 IA Akranes D 2-260.2 880 1156 13.75% 18.38% 67.88%-1.48 +4.5 1
1978-05-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1156 880 67.88% 18.38% 13.75%+1.48 -4.5 1
1978-05-17 Fram Reykjavik W 3-028.1 1171 961 67.32% 18.47% 14.21%+1.28 +21.1 2
1978-05-17 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-328.1 961 1171 14.21% 18.47% 67.32%-1.28 -21.1 0
1978-05-20 KA Akureyri D 0-051.3 972 872 57.24% 18.75% 24.01%+0.66 -3.9 2
1978-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-051.3 872 972 24.01% 18.75% 57.24%-0.66 +3.9 2
1978-05-20 Breidablik W 4-028.8 1151 1015 60.96% 18.68% 20.37%+0.86 +38.2 3
1978-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-428.8 1015 1151 20.37% 18.68% 60.96%-0.86 -38.2 1
1978-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-353.2 1027 1011 46.81% 18.84% 34.35%+0.17 -19.3 1
1978-05-20 @ Keflavik IF W 3-253.2 1011 1027 34.35% 18.84% 46.81%-0.17 +19.3 2
1978-05-21 Valur Reykjavik L 2-539.4 1043 1192 25.15% 18.73% 56.12%-0.76 -25.6 2
1978-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-239.4 1192 1043 56.12% 18.73% 25.15%+0.76 +25.6 4
1978-05-22 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-137.5 940 885 51.95% 18.81% 29.24%+0.40 +33.7 2
1978-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-437.5 885 940 29.24% 18.81% 51.95%-0.40 -33.7 1
1978-05-22 IA Akranes L 0-525.9 876 1189 11.32% 18.23% 70.46%-1.70 -27.5 2
1978-05-22 @ KA Akureyri W 5-025.9 1189 876 70.46% 18.23% 11.32%+1.70 +27.5 5
1978-05-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-240.1 977 973 45.24% 18.85% 35.91%+0.11 -39.5 1
1978-05-27 @ Breidablik W 2-040.1 973 977 35.91% 18.85% 45.24%-0.11 +39.5 4
1978-05-27 KA Akureyri W 1-031.3 1217 848 76.00% 17.78% 6.22%+2.18 +3.5 7
1978-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-131.3 848 1217 6.22% 17.78% 76.00%-2.18 -3.5 2
1978-05-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-032.4 1031 968 52.92% 18.80% 28.28%+0.44 +38.8 4
1978-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-332.4 968 1031 28.28% 18.80% 52.92%-0.44 -38.9 2
1978-05-27 Keflavik IF W 2-138.6 1217 1007 67.34% 18.47% 14.19%+1.28 +7.3 6
1978-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-238.6 1007 1217 14.19% 18.47% 67.34%-1.28 -7.3 1
1978-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-043.9 851 1018 23.19% 18.69% 58.12%-0.86 +49.6 3
1978-05-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-243.9 1018 851 58.12% 18.69% 23.19%+0.86 -49.7 2
1978-06-02 KA Akureyri W 1-034.9 1013 845 63.96% 18.60% 17.44%+1.04 +9.3 6
1978-06-02 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-134.9 845 1013 17.44% 18.60% 63.96%-1.04 -9.3 2
1978-06-03 IA Akranes L 1-729.1 929 1220 12.68% 18.32% 69.00%-1.57 -30.0 2
1978-06-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 7-129.1 1220 929 69.00% 18.32% 12.68%+1.57 +30.0 9
1978-06-03 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-051.3 1000 901 57.16% 18.75% 24.09%+0.65 -3.9 2
1978-06-03 @ Keflavik IF D 0-051.3 901 1000 24.09% 18.75% 57.16%-0.65 +3.9 4
1978-06-04 Breidablik W 3-141.2 968 938 48.81% 18.84% 32.35%+0.26 +26.0 4
1978-06-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-341.2 938 968 32.35% 18.84% 48.81%-0.26 -26.0 1
1978-06-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-033.6 1250 1022 68.63% 18.41% 12.96%+1.39 +7.1 11
1978-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 0-133.6 1022 1250 12.96% 18.41% 68.63%-1.39 -7.1 6
1978-06-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-260.1 905 1070 23.37% 18.70% 57.93%-0.85 +2.7 5
1978-06-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-260.1 1070 905 57.93% 18.70% 23.37%+0.85 -2.7 5
1978-06-11 Keflavik IF L 0-236.4 912 996 32.96% 18.82% 48.22%-0.39 -30.4 1
1978-06-11 @ Breidablik W 2-036.4 996 912 48.22% 18.82% 32.96%+0.39 +30.4 4
1978-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-136.5 1225 899 74.18% 18.00% 7.82%+1.94 +4.1 8
1978-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-236.5 899 1225 7.82% 18.00% 74.18%-1.94 -4.1 2
1978-06-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-331.1 1067 1229 23.66% 18.70% 57.64%-0.83 -33.3 5
1978-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-031.1 1229 1067 57.64% 18.70% 23.66%+0.83 +33.3 10
1978-06-14 Fram Reykjavik L 2-347.7 895 1015 28.43% 18.78% 52.79%-0.60 -12.7 2
1978-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-247.7 1015 895 52.79% 18.78% 28.43%+0.60 +12.7 8
1978-06-14 Breidablik W 1-035.3 1033 881 62.51% 18.64% 18.85%+0.95 +10.0 7
1978-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-135.3 881 1033 18.85% 18.64% 62.51%-0.95 -10.0 1
1978-06-14 KA Akureyri L 2-358.8 1027 835 65.88% 18.53% 15.59%+1.18 -26.7 4
1978-06-14 @ Keflavik IF W 3-258.8 835 1027 15.59% 18.53% 65.88%-1.18 +26.7 4
1978-06-14 IA Akranes L 2-439.9 994 1257 14.59% 18.42% 66.99%-1.41 -11.5 4
1978-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-239.9 1257 994 66.99% 18.42% 14.59%+1.41 +11.5 13
1978-06-15 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-031.5 1262 907 75.45% 17.85% 6.70%+2.11 +3.8 12
1978-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-131.5 907 1262 6.70% 17.85% 75.45%-2.11 -3.8 5
1978-06-17 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-145.0 1028 982 50.76% 18.82% 30.42%+0.35 -23.2 8
1978-06-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-045.0 982 1028 30.42% 18.82% 50.76%-0.35 +23.2 6
1978-06-18 Keflavik IF W 3-027.0 1269 1000 71.24% 18.25% 10.50%+1.62 +16.0 15
1978-06-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-327.0 1000 1269 10.50% 18.25% 71.24%-1.62 -16.0 4
1978-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.1 862 1043 21.67% 18.66% 59.67%-0.94 +4.1 5
1978-06-18 @ KA Akureyri D 1-155.1 1043 862 59.67% 18.66% 21.67%+0.94 -4.1 8
1978-06-18 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-260.1 904 882 47.63% 18.84% 33.53%+0.21 -1.1 6
1978-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-260.1 882 904 33.53% 18.84% 47.63%-0.21 +1.1 3
1978-06-19 Valur Reykjavik L 1-430.7 871 1266 7.42% 17.85% 74.73%-2.16 -9.6 1
1978-06-19 @ Breidablik W 4-130.7 1266 871 74.73% 17.85% 7.42%+2.16 +9.6 14
1978-06-21 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-364.1 883 1006 28.17% 18.78% 53.05%-0.61 +1.6 4
1978-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-364.1 1006 883 53.05% 18.78% 28.17%+0.61 -1.6 7
1978-06-21 IA Akranes L 2-344.0 1039 1285 15.94% 18.48% 65.58%-1.31 -7.7 8
1978-06-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-244.0 1285 1039 65.58% 18.48% 15.94%+1.31 +7.7 17
1978-06-21 Fram Reykjavik D 1-155.1 984 1005 41.79% 18.85% 39.35%-0.03 -0.2 5
1978-06-21 @ Keflavik IF D 1-155.1 1005 984 39.35% 18.85% 41.79%+0.03 +0.2 9
1978-06-22 KA Akureyri W 5-023.8 1276 866 77.44% 17.56% 5.00%+2.42 +12.5 16
1978-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-523.8 866 1276 5.00% 17.56% 77.44%-2.42 -12.5 5
1978-06-23 Breidablik W 4-244.8 903 862 50.17% 18.83% 31.00%+0.32 +22.4 8
1978-06-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-444.8 862 903 31.00% 18.83% 50.17%-0.32 -22.4 1
1978-06-26 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-539.2 854 1004 24.94% 18.73% 56.34%-0.77 -25.5 5
1978-06-26 @ KA Akureyri W 5-239.2 1004 854 56.34% 18.73% 24.94%+0.77 +25.5 9
1978-07-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.5 1005 1032 40.94% 18.85% 40.21%-0.06 +17.9 11
1978-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-246.5 1032 1005 40.21% 18.85% 40.94%+0.06 -17.9 8
1978-07-01 Valur Reykjavik L 0-144.2 1293 1288 45.34% 18.85% 35.81%+0.11 -21.0 17
1978-07-01 @ IA Akranes W 1-044.2 1288 1293 35.81% 18.85% 45.34%-0.11 +21.0 18
1978-07-01 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-051.2 828 925 31.35% 18.81% 49.84%-0.46 +2.1 6
1978-07-01 @ KA Akureyri D 0-051.2 925 828 49.84% 18.81% 31.35%+0.46 -2.1 9
1978-07-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-434.2 839 885 38.26% 18.85% 42.89%-0.17 -65.3 1
1978-07-02 @ Breidablik W 4-034.2 885 839 42.89% 18.85% 38.26%+0.17 +65.3 6
1978-07-02 Keflavik IF L 0-145.0 1030 984 50.81% 18.82% 30.37%+0.35 -23.2 9
1978-07-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-045.0 984 1030 30.37% 18.82% 50.81%-0.35 +23.2 7
1978-07-08 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-241.0 1272 923 75.20% 17.89% 6.92%+2.07 +3.5 19
1978-07-08 @ IA Akranes L 2-341.0 923 1272 6.92% 17.89% 75.20%-2.07 -3.5 9
1978-07-08 Breidablik L 0-339.6 830 774 52.12% 18.81% 29.07%+0.41 -65.1 6
1978-07-08 @ KA Akureyri W 3-039.6 774 830 29.07% 18.81% 52.12%-0.41 +65.1 3
1978-07-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-142.9 1006 1014 43.67% 18.85% 37.48%+0.05 -20.3 9
1978-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-042.9 1014 1006 37.48% 18.85% 43.67%-0.05 +20.3 10
1978-07-09 Keflavik IF W 2-039.9 950 1007 36.70% 18.84% 44.46%-0.23 +38.9 8
1978-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-239.9 1007 950 44.46% 18.84% 36.70%+0.23 -38.9 7
1978-07-09 Valur Reykjavik L 0-327.8 1023 1309 13.01% 18.34% 68.65%-1.54 -19.5 11
1978-07-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-027.8 1309 1023 68.65% 18.34% 13.01%+1.54 +19.5 20
1978-07-15 IA Akranes L 0-325.4 839 1275 5.96% 17.63% 76.42%-2.39 -9.2 3
1978-07-15 @ Breidablik W 3-025.4 1275 839 76.42% 17.63% 5.96%+2.39 +9.2 21
1978-07-15 Keflavik IF L 1-250.4 1034 968 53.33% 18.80% 27.87%+0.46 -22.9 10
1978-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-150.4 968 1034 27.87% 18.80% 53.33%-0.46 +22.9 9
1978-07-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-048.8 765 989 17.72% 18.55% 63.73%-1.19 +28.9 8
1978-07-15 @ KA Akureyri L 0-148.8 989 765 63.73% 18.55% 17.72%+1.19 -28.9 8
1978-07-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-139.6 919 1003 33.01% 18.82% 48.17%-0.39 -16.2 9
1978-07-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-039.6 1003 919 48.17% 18.82% 33.01%+0.39 +16.1 13
1978-07-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-025.9 1329 986 74.94% 17.92% 7.15%+2.04 +11.0 22
1978-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-325.9 986 1329 7.15% 17.92% 74.94%-2.04 -11.0 9
1978-07-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-237.8 960 1011 37.50% 18.85% 43.66%-0.20 -33.9 8
1978-07-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-037.8 1011 960 43.66% 18.85% 37.50%+0.20 +33.8 12
1978-07-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-037.9 975 903 53.99% 18.79% 27.21%+0.50 +13.7 11
1978-07-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-137.9 903 975 27.21% 18.79% 53.99%-0.50 -13.7 9
1978-07-25 Breidablik W 2-031.1 1020 830 65.75% 18.53% 15.71%+1.17 +16.0 15
1978-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-231.1 830 1020 15.71% 18.53% 65.75%-1.17 -15.9 3
1978-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-229.2 991 1340 9.44% 18.07% 72.49%-1.90 -9.9 9
1978-07-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-029.2 1340 991 72.49% 18.07% 9.44%+1.90 +9.9 24
1978-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-028.2 1284 926 75.57% 17.84% 6.59%+2.12 +7.0 23
1978-07-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-228.2 926 1284 6.59% 17.84% 75.57%-2.12 -7.0 8
1978-07-29 Fram Reykjavik W 3-043.4 794 1036 16.27% 18.49% 65.23%-1.28 +81.0 10
1978-07-29 @ KA Akureyri L 0-343.4 1036 794 65.23% 18.49% 16.27%+1.28 -81.0 15
1978-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-032.4 1349 1045 73.16% 18.10% 8.74%+1.82 +4.9 26
1978-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-132.4 1045 1349 8.74% 18.10% 73.16%-1.82 -4.9 12
1978-07-30 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-241.1 814 989 22.35% 18.68% 58.98%-0.91 -10.9 3
1978-07-30 @ Breidablik W 2-141.1 989 814 58.98% 18.68% 22.35%+0.91 +10.9 13
1978-07-30 Keflavik IF L 1-244.0 889 981 32.04% 18.82% 49.15%-0.43 -14.9 9
1978-07-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-144.0 981 889 49.15% 18.82% 32.04%+0.43 +14.9 11
1978-08-01 IA Akranes L 0-229.4 955 1291 10.05% 18.13% 71.83%-1.83 -10.5 15
1978-08-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-029.4 1291 955 71.83% 18.13% 10.05%+1.83 +10.5 25
1978-08-02 Valur Reykjavik L 0-228.0 919 1354 5.99% 17.63% 76.38%-2.39 -6.4 8
1978-08-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-028.0 1354 919 76.38% 17.63% 5.99%+2.39 +6.4 28
1978-08-02 Breidablik W 3-136.1 996 803 66.00% 18.52% 15.48%+1.18 +13.6 13
1978-08-02 @ Keflavik IF L 1-336.1 803 996 15.48% 18.52% 66.00%-1.18 -13.6 3
1978-08-02 KA Akureyri W 1-036.1 1000 875 59.82% 18.70% 21.48%+0.80 +11.2 15
1978-08-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-136.1 875 1000 21.48% 18.70% 59.82%-0.80 -11.2 10
1978-08-11 Keflavik IF L 0-530.3 864 1009 25.48% 18.74% 55.78%-0.74 -57.2 10
1978-08-11 @ KA Akureyri W 5-030.3 1009 864 55.78% 18.74% 25.48%+0.74 +57.2 15
1978-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-046.2 789 1040 15.54% 18.46% 66.00%-1.34 +56.4 5
1978-08-12 @ Breidablik L 0-246.2 1040 789 66.00% 18.46% 15.54%+1.34 -56.4 12
1978-08-12 Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-025.4 1302 1011 72.47% 18.16% 9.37%+1.74 +23.0 27
1978-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-525.4 1011 1302 9.37% 18.16% 72.47%-1.74 -23.1 15
1978-08-12 Valur Reykjavik L 1-332.5 875 1361 4.55% 17.33% 78.12%-2.68 -4.2 9
1978-08-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-132.5 1361 875 78.12% 17.33% 4.55%+2.68 +4.2 30
1978-08-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-466.3 944 913 48.90% 18.83% 32.27%+0.26 -0.9 16
1978-08-13 @ Fram Reykjavik D 4-466.3 913 944 32.27% 18.83% 48.90%-0.26 +0.9 9
1978-08-19 KA Akureyri W 6-233.9 984 807 64.72% 18.57% 16.71%+1.09 +22.6 14
1978-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-633.9 807 984 16.71% 18.57% 64.72%-1.09 -22.6 10
1978-08-19 IA Akranes D 2-260.4 1067 1325 14.97% 18.44% 66.59%-1.38 +4.3 16
1978-08-19 @ Keflavik IF D 2-260.4 1325 1067 66.59% 18.44% 14.97%+1.38 -4.3 28
1978-08-19 Breidablik W 4-235.8 1365 846 80.38% 16.86% 2.76%+3.04 +2.3 32
1978-08-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-435.8 846 1365 2.76% 16.86% 80.38%-3.04 -2.3 5
1978-08-20 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-051.2 914 870 50.52% 18.82% 30.66%+0.34 -2.3 10
1978-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-051.2 870 914 30.66% 18.82% 50.52%-0.34 +2.3 10
1978-08-20 Fram Reykjavik W 3-033.1 988 943 50.65% 18.82% 30.53%+0.34 +41.4 17
1978-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-333.1 943 988 30.53% 18.82% 50.65%-0.34 -41.4 16
1978-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-051.6 1321 1006 73.64% 18.05% 8.30%+1.87 -8.4 29
1978-08-22 @ IA Akranes D 0-051.6 1006 1321 8.30% 18.05% 73.64%-1.87 +8.4 15
1978-08-22 Valur Reykjavik D 0-051.9 784 1367 2.69% 16.69% 80.62%-3.23 +10.2 11
1978-08-22 @ KA Akureyri D 0-051.9 1367 784 80.62% 16.69% 2.69%+3.23 -10.2 33
1978-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-440.9 844 873 40.60% 18.85% 40.54%-0.08 -44.2 5
1978-08-23 @ Breidablik W 4-140.9 873 844 40.54% 18.85% 40.60%+0.08 +44.2 12
1978-08-23 Keflavik IF L 1-338.3 902 1071 22.91% 18.69% 58.40%-0.87 -19.3 16
1978-08-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-138.3 1071 902 58.40% 18.69% 22.91%+0.87 +19.3 18
1978-08-24 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-036.4 1029 912 59.10% 18.72% 22.18%+0.76 +11.5 19
1978-08-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-136.4 912 1029 22.18% 18.72% 59.10%-0.76 -11.5 10
1978-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-031.2 1015 917 56.99% 18.75% 24.25%+0.64 +34.0 17
1978-08-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-331.2 917 1015 24.25% 18.75% 56.99%-0.64 -34.0 12
1978-09-07 KA Akureyri W 1-037.3 883 794 55.96% 18.77% 25.27%+0.59 +12.9 14
1978-09-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-137.3 794 883 25.27% 18.77% 55.96%-0.59 -12.9 11
1978-09-09 Breidablik L 1-348.7 900 799 57.32% 18.75% 23.93%+0.66 -42.4 10
1978-09-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-148.7 799 900 23.93% 18.75% 57.32%-0.66 +42.4 7
1978-09-09 Fram Reykjavik W 3-244.4 1049 882 63.80% 18.60% 17.60%+1.03 +8.4 19
1978-09-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-344.4 882 1049 17.60% 18.60% 63.80%-1.03 -8.4 16
1978-09-09 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-140.5 1090 1041 51.28% 18.82% 29.90%+0.37 +24.3 20
1978-09-09 @ Keflavik IF L 1-340.5 1041 1090 29.90% 18.82% 51.28%-0.37 -24.3 19
1978-09-10 IA Akranes W 1-040.4 1357 1312 50.68% 18.82% 30.50%+0.34 +15.1 35
1978-09-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-140.4 1312 1357 30.50% 18.82% 50.68%-0.34 -15.1 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1978-08-12 15.54% @ Breidablik 789 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1040 0
2 1978-06-14 15.59% KA Akureyri 835 3 @ Keflavik IF 1027 2
3 1978-07-29 16.27% @ KA Akureyri 794 3 Fram Reykjavik 1036 0
4 1978-07-15 17.72% @ KA Akureyri 765 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 989 0
5 1978-05-28 23.19% @ Throttur Reykjavik 851 2 Vikingur Reykjavik 1018 0
6 1978-09-09 23.93% Breidablik 799 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 900 1
7 1978-07-15 27.87% Keflavik IF 968 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1034 1
8 1978-05-16 28.86% Vikingur Reykjavik 998 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1056 0
9 1978-07-08 29.07% Breidablik 774 3 @ KA Akureyri 830 0
10 1978-07-02 30.37% Keflavik IF 984 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1030 0
11 1978-06-17 30.42% Vikingur Reykjavik 982 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1028 0
12 1978-05-20 34.35% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1011 3 @ Keflavik IF 1027 2
13 1978-07-01 35.81% Valur Reykjavik 1288 1 @ IA Akranes 1293 0
14 1978-05-27 35.91% Fram Reykjavik 973 2 @ Breidablik 977 0
15 1978-07-09 36.70% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 950 2 Keflavik IF 1007 0
16 1978-07-08 37.48% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1014 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1006 0
17 1978-08-23 40.54% Throttur Reykjavik 873 4 @ Breidablik 844 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-07-29 80.97 @ KA Akureyri 3 794 16.27% Fram Reykjavik 0 1036 65.23% 18.49%
2 1978-07-02 65.30 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 885 42.89% @ Breidablik 0 839 38.26% 18.85%
3 1978-07-08 65.08 Breidablik 3 774 29.07% @ KA Akureyri 0 830 52.12% 18.81%
4 1978-08-11 57.19 Keflavik IF 5 1009 55.78% @ KA Akureyri 0 864 25.48% 18.74%
5 1978-08-12 56.42 @ Breidablik 2 789 15.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1040 66.00% 18.46%
6 1978-05-28 49.66 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 851 23.19% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1018 58.12% 18.69%
7 1978-05-16 44.98 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 998 28.86% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1056 52.33% 18.81%
8 1978-08-23 44.23 Throttur Reykjavik 4 873 40.54% @ Breidablik 1 844 40.60% 18.85%
9 1978-09-09 42.45 Breidablik 3 799 23.93% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 900 57.32% 18.75%
10 1978-08-20 41.44 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 988 50.65% Fram Reykjavik 0 943 30.53% 18.82%
11 1978-05-27 39.52 Fram Reykjavik 2 973 35.91% @ Breidablik 0 977 45.24% 18.85%
12 1978-07-09 38.94 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 950 36.70% Keflavik IF 0 1007 44.46% 18.84%
13 1978-05-27 38.85 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1031 52.92% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 968 28.28% 18.80%
14 1978-05-20 38.19 @ IA Akranes 4 1151 60.96% Breidablik 0 1015 20.37% 18.68%
15 1978-08-31 34.05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1015 56.99% Throttur Reykjavik 0 917 24.25% 18.75%
16 1978-07-22 33.85 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1011 43.66% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 960 37.50% 18.85%
17 1978-05-22 33.70 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 940 51.95% Throttur Reykjavik 1 885 29.24% 18.81%
18 1978-06-13 33.31 Valur Reykjavik 3 1229 57.64% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1067 23.66% 18.70%
19 1978-06-11 30.42 Keflavik IF 2 996 48.22% @ Breidablik 0 912 32.96% 18.82%
20 1978-06-03 29.97 IA Akranes 7 1220 69.00% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 929 12.68% 18.32%
21 1978-07-15 28.86 @ KA Akureyri 1 765 17.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 989 63.73% 18.55%
22 1978-05-22 27.49 IA Akranes 5 1189 70.46% @ KA Akureyri 0 876 11.32% 18.23%
23 1978-06-14 26.73 KA Akureyri 3 835 15.59% @ Keflavik IF 2 1027 65.88% 18.53%
24 1978-06-04 25.95 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 968 48.81% Breidablik 1 938 32.35% 18.84%
25 1978-05-21 25.65 Valur Reykjavik 5 1192 56.12% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1043 25.15% 18.73%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-08-13 66.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 944 48.90% FH Hafnarfjordur 4 913 32.27% 18.83%
2 1978-06-21 64.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 883 28.17% Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1006 53.05% 18.78%
3 1978-08-19 60.4 @ Keflavik IF 2 1067 14.97% IA Akranes 2 1325 66.59% 18.44%
4 1978-05-16 60.2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 880 13.75% IA Akranes 2 1156 67.88% 18.38%
5 1978-05-13 60.1 @ Breidablik 2 1019 62.37% KA Akureyri 2 868 18.98% 18.64%
6 1978-05-16 60.1 @ Keflavik IF 2 1028 52.39% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 970 28.80% 18.81%
7 1978-06-10 60.1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 905 23.37% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1070 57.93% 18.70%
8 1978-06-18 60.1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 904 47.63% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 882 33.53% 18.84%
9 1978-06-14 58.8 KA Akureyri 3 835 15.59% @ Keflavik IF 2 1027 65.88% 18.53%
10 1978-06-18 55.1 @ KA Akureyri 1 862 21.67% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1043 59.67% 18.66%
11 1978-06-21 55.1 @ Keflavik IF 1 984 41.79% Fram Reykjavik 1 1005 39.35% 18.85%
12 1978-05-20 53.2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1011 34.35% @ Keflavik IF 2 1027 46.81% 18.84%
13 1978-08-22 51.9 @ KA Akureyri 0 784 2.69% Valur Reykjavik 0 1367 80.62% 16.69%
14 1978-08-22 51.6 @ IA Akranes 0 1321 73.64% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1006 8.30% 18.05%
15 1978-05-20 51.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 972 57.24% KA Akureyri 0 872 24.01% 18.75%
16 1978-06-03 51.3 @ Keflavik IF 0 1000 57.16% Throttur Reykjavik 0 901 24.09% 18.75%
17 1978-07-01 51.2 @ KA Akureyri 0 828 31.35% Throttur Reykjavik 0 925 49.84% 18.81%
18 1978-08-20 51.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 914 50.52% Throttur Reykjavik 0 870 30.66% 18.82%
19 1978-07-15 50.4 Keflavik IF 2 968 27.87% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1034 53.33% 18.80%
20 1978-07-15 48.8 @ KA Akureyri 1 765 17.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 989 63.73% 18.55%
21 1978-09-09 48.7 Breidablik 3 799 23.93% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 900 57.32% 18.75%
22 1978-06-14 47.7 Fram Reykjavik 3 1015 52.79% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 895 28.43% 18.78%
23 1978-07-01 46.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1005 40.94% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1032 40.21% 18.85%
24 1978-08-12 46.2 @ Breidablik 2 789 15.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1040 66.00% 18.46%
25 1978-06-17 45.0 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 982 30.42% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1028 50.76% 18.82%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-06-22 23.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1276 77.44% KA Akureyri 0 866 5.00% 17.56%
2 1978-07-15 25.4 IA Akranes 3 1275 76.42% @ Breidablik 0 839 5.96% 17.63%
3 1978-08-12 25.4 @ IA Akranes 5 1302 72.47% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1011 9.37% 18.16%
4 1978-05-22 25.9 IA Akranes 5 1189 70.46% @ KA Akureyri 0 876 11.32% 18.23%
5 1978-07-16 25.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1329 74.94% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 986 7.15% 17.92%
6 1978-06-18 27.0 @ IA Akranes 3 1269 71.24% Keflavik IF 0 1000 10.50% 18.25%
7 1978-07-09 27.8 Valur Reykjavik 3 1309 68.65% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1023 13.01% 18.34%
8 1978-08-02 28.0 Valur Reykjavik 2 1354 76.38% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 919 5.99% 17.63%
9 1978-05-17 28.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1171 67.32% Fram Reykjavik 0 961 14.21% 18.47%
10 1978-07-29 28.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1284 75.57% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 926 6.59% 17.84%
11 1978-05-20 28.8 @ IA Akranes 4 1151 60.96% Breidablik 0 1015 20.37% 18.68%
12 1978-06-03 29.1 IA Akranes 7 1220 69.00% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 929 12.68% 18.32%
13 1978-07-25 29.2 Valur Reykjavik 2 1340 72.49% @ Keflavik IF 0 991 9.44% 18.07%
14 1978-08-01 29.4 IA Akranes 2 1291 71.83% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 955 10.05% 18.13%
15 1978-08-11 30.3 Keflavik IF 5 1009 55.78% @ KA Akureyri 0 864 25.48% 18.74%
16 1978-06-19 30.7 Valur Reykjavik 4 1266 74.73% @ Breidablik 1 871 7.42% 17.85%
17 1978-06-13 31.1 Valur Reykjavik 3 1229 57.64% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1067 23.66% 18.70%
18 1978-07-25 31.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1020 65.75% Breidablik 0 830 15.71% 18.53%
19 1978-08-31 31.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1015 56.99% Throttur Reykjavik 0 917 24.25% 18.75%
20 1978-05-27 31.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1217 76.00% KA Akureyri 0 848 6.22% 17.78%
21 1978-06-15 31.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1262 75.45% Throttur Reykjavik 0 907 6.70% 17.85%
22 1978-05-27 32.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1031 52.92% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 968 28.28% 18.80%
23 1978-07-29 32.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1349 73.16% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1045 8.74% 18.10%
24 1978-08-12 32.5 Valur Reykjavik 3 1361 78.12% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 875 4.55% 17.33%
25 1978-08-20 33.1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 988 50.65% Fram Reykjavik 0 943 30.53% 18.82%