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1977 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

28 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1975.0

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

6 pts

KR Reykjavik · 10 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

4.44 points above expected

28 points · 23.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

7.97 points below expected

6 points · 13.97 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 13 2 3 28 35 13 +22 23.56 +4.44
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 11 5 2 27 38 18 +20 24.66 +2.34
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 3 6 21 27 18 +9 16.85 +4.15
4 Keflavik IF 18 8 4 6 20 29 28 +1 18.40 +1.60
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 6 8 4 20 22 23 -1 17.93 +2.07
6 Breidablik 18 7 4 7 18 27 26 +1 16.89 +1.11
7 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 6 7 16 26 30 -4 14.36 +1.64
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 6 8 14 24 35 -11 18.06 -4.06
9 KR Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 4 11 10 24 34 -10 15.32 -5.32
10 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 2 2 14 6 21 48 -27 13.97 -7.97

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 28 23.56 +4.44
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 21 16.85 +4.15
3 Valur Reykjavik 27 24.66 +2.34
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 20 17.93 +2.07
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 14.36 +1.64

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 6 13.97 -7.97
2 KR Reykjavik 10 15.32 -5.32
3 Fram Reykjavik 14 18.06 -4.06
4 Breidablik 18 16.89 +1.11
5 Keflavik IF 20 18.40 +1.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 14 – Jun 6 1 in 26
2 Thor Akureyri 2 May 25 – May 28 1 in 14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 13 – Jun 18 1 in 14
4 IA Akranes 4 Aug 6 – Aug 23 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 4 – Jun 8 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 2 – Aug 23 1 in 94
2 KR Reykjavik 6 Jun 22 – Aug 4 1 in 67
3 IA Akranes 2 Jun 22 – Jul 3 1 in 16
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 7 – May 11 1 in 15
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 May 15 – Jun 4 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jul 10 – Aug 23 1 in 71
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 May 8 – Jun 13 1 in 32
3 Valur Reykjavik 16 May 14 – Aug 25 1 in 25
4 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 19 – Jul 10 1 in 10
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 22 – Jul 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 9 May 25 – Jul 6 1 in 122
2 Thor Akureyri 13 May 31 – Aug 23 1 in 38
3 KR Reykjavik 9 Jun 13 – Aug 4 1 in 31
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 14 – Aug 25 1 in 28
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jul 11 – Aug 25 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IA Akranes 1156 28 +61 9 6.9 +2.1
Valur Reykjavik 1182 27 +7 7 7.9 -0.9
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1012 21 +35 7 5.6 +1.4
Keflavik IF 972 20 +10 4 4.6 -0.6
Vikingur Reykjavik 930 20 -65 3 4.1 -1.1
Breidablik 956 18 +1 4 4.9 -0.9
FH Hafnarfjordur 883 16 +30 6 4.0 +2.0
Fram Reykjavik 872 14 -26 4 3.9 +0.1
KR Reykjavik 842 10 -9 4 4.1 -0.1
Thor Akureyri 724 6 -73 0 3.1 -3.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
1.62
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
1.50
0-1-1
2.86
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
1.33
1-0-1
2.15
1-1-0
2.27
0-1-1
1.92
2-0-0
3.18
0-1-1
1.04
0-1-1
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.66
 —
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
2.99
0-2-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.59
1-1-0
3.58
0-2-0
1.43
1-0-1
2.61
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.87
1-1-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.52
 —
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.62
1-0-1
4.15
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
3.72
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.66
 —
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
3.66
0-0-2
1.68
0-2-0
2.45
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
3.21
0-2-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
2.47
 —
0-0-2
2.33
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.23
0-1-1
2.34
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
3.56
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.16
 —
2-0-0
3.29
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
2.68
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
2.28
0-0-2
2.30
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
2.20
 —
0-0-2
1.44
0-1-1
2.18
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
4.48
0-2-0
4.08
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
4.28
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.08
 —
1-1-0
3.92
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
1.77
0-2-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
1.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +10.6
Allowed 0.90 -6.4
Differential 0.95 +4.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%6.11%6.67%4.44%1.67%0.56%27.22%
16.11%11.11%5.56%2.22%3.89%—28.89%
26.67%5.56%3.33%3.33%1.67%0.56%21.11%
34.44%2.22%3.33%2.22%0.56%—12.78%
41.67%3.89%1.67%0.56%—0.56%8.33%
5+0.56%—0.56%—0.56%—1.67%
Total27.22%28.89%21.11%12.78%8.33%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.93
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.44 +0.06
SD 1.42 1.04 1.76
CV 0.95 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—16.67%5.56%—11.11%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.67 -0.22
SD 1.65 1.33 1.83
CV 1.14 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%—16.67%—44.44%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.94 -0.61
SD 1.08 1.43 1.79
CV 0.81 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—33.33%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
316.67%—————16.67%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total61.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.72 +1.22
SD 1.30 1.18 1.86
CV 0.67 1.63 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
1———————
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.50 0.91 1.95
CV 1.00 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
1—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.89 -0.56
SD 1.64 1.23 1.98
CV 1.23 0.65 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.20 1.34 1.73
CV 0.74 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
2———16.67%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.67 -1.50
SD 0.86 1.50 1.82
CV 0.73 0.56 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%——11.11%5.56%—27.78%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.00 +1.11
SD 1.37 1.28 1.57
CV 0.65 1.28 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—11.11%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%22.22%————33.33%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.28 -0.06
SD 1.22 1.27 1.80
CV 0.99 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1182 27 24.66 +2.34 82.0% 14 19 23 24 27 29 34
IA Akranes 1156 28 23.56 +4.44 91.0% 16 18 21 24 26 29 33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1012 21 16.85 +4.15 90.0% 8 11 14 17 19 22 25
Keflavik IF 972 20 18.40 +1.60 70.0% 10 11 16 19 21 24 27
Breidablik 956 18 16.89 +1.11 68.0% 8 11 15 17 19 23 24
Vikingur Reykjavik 930 20 17.93 +2.07 80.0% 7 12 16 18 20 22 27
FH Hafnarfjordur 883 16 14.36 +1.64 70.0% 7 9 12 14 17 19 22
Fram Reykjavik 872 14 18.06 -4.06 13.0% 10 13 16 18 20 24 28
KR Reykjavik 842 10 15.32 -5.32 4.0% 8 11 13 15 17 20 24
Thor Akureyri 724 6 13.97 -7.97 1.0% 6 7 12 14 16 20 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
40.00%24.44%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
IA Akranes, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.71 * Some Luck: 2.71 to 4.06 * Lucky: 4.06 to 5.41 * Wild Swing: 5.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.42 * Close: 1.42 to 2.13 * Off: 2.13 to 2.85 * Way Off: 2.85 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.05 * A Surprise: 1.05 to 1.68 * Several Surprises: 1.68 to 2.31 * Many Surprises: 2.31 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.02 points
Some Luck
03.388
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
01.784
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 139.05
1.87
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
67%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
93%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.38
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.135
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes36.00%36.00%12.00%10.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%———
Valur Reykjavik53.00%29.00%10.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%—1.00%—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.00%5.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%7.00%
Keflavik IF6.00%11.00%15.00%14.00%10.00%19.00%4.00%7.00%10.00%4.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.00%5.00%14.00%20.00%18.00%11.00%12.00%9.00%4.00%6.00%
Breidablik1.00%4.00%10.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%13.00%15.00%6.00%8.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——4.00%4.00%8.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%21.00%21.00%
Fram Reykjavik2.00%7.00%13.00%13.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%
KR Reykjavik—1.00%6.00%4.00%13.00%7.00%19.00%14.00%24.00%12.00%
Thor Akureyri—2.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%21.00%16.00%37.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 90.00% 10.00%
Fram Reykjavik 88.00% 12.00%
Breidablik 86.00% 14.00%
Keflavik IF 86.00% 14.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 82.00% 18.00%
KR Reykjavik 64.00% 36.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 58.00% 42.00%
Thor Akureyri 47.00% 53.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1977-05-07 Valur Reykjavik W 4-359.3 925 1074 21.43% 25.48% 53.09%-0.73 +17.2 2
1977-05-07 @ Breidablik L 3-459.3 1074 925 53.09% 25.48% 21.43%+0.73 -17.2 0
1977-05-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-243.4 1019 895 55.31% 25.44% 19.26%+0.77 -38.8 0
1977-05-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-043.4 895 1019 19.26% 25.44% 55.31%-0.77 +38.8 2
1977-05-07 KR Reykjavik W 1-036.6 1022 907 54.34% 25.50% 20.16%+0.71 +9.1 2
1977-05-07 @ IA Akranes L 0-136.6 907 1022 20.16% 25.50% 54.34%-0.71 -9.1 0
1977-05-07 Thor Akureyri W 3-250.4 946 941 40.96% 25.91% 33.13%+0.11 +12.1 2
1977-05-07 @ Keflavik IF L 2-350.4 941 946 33.13% 25.91% 40.96%-0.11 -12.1 0
1977-05-08 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-152.6 938 864 49.83% 25.72% 24.45%+0.49 -2.1 1
1977-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.6 864 938 24.45% 25.72% 49.83%-0.49 +2.1 1
1977-05-10 Breidablik D 0-048.6 933 942 39.13% 25.92% 34.95%+0.04 -0.4 3
1977-05-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-048.6 942 933 34.95% 25.92% 39.13%-0.04 +0.4 3
1977-05-10 Keflavik IF L 0-236.5 897 958 31.88% 25.87% 42.24%-0.25 -24.7 0
1977-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-036.5 958 897 42.24% 25.87% 31.88%+0.25 +24.7 4
1977-05-11 Fram Reykjavik L 0-331.9 866 981 25.12% 25.68% 49.20%-0.54 -29.8 1
1977-05-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-031.9 981 866 49.20% 25.68% 25.12%+0.54 +29.8 2
1977-05-11 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.6 929 936 39.38% 25.92% 34.70%+0.05 -0.4 1
1977-05-11 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-152.6 936 929 34.70% 25.92% 39.38%-0.05 +0.4 2
1977-05-11 IA Akranes L 0-240.1 1056 1031 43.79% 25.88% 30.33%+0.22 -31.5 0
1977-05-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-040.1 1031 1056 30.33% 25.88% 43.79%-0.22 +31.5 4
1977-05-14 Thor Akureyri W 3-139.2 1010 929 50.71% 25.69% 23.61%+0.53 +16.9 4
1977-05-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-339.2 929 1010 23.61% 25.69% 50.71%-0.53 -16.9 1
1977-05-14 Breidablik W 2-032.7 1062 942 54.85% 25.47% 19.69%+0.74 +16.9 6
1977-05-14 @ IA Akranes L 0-232.7 942 1062 19.69% 25.47% 54.85%-0.74 -16.9 3
1977-05-14 Valur Reykjavik L 1-245.9 983 1025 34.32% 25.90% 39.78%-0.15 -13.1 4
1977-05-14 @ Keflavik IF W 2-145.9 1025 983 39.78% 25.90% 34.32%+0.15 +13.1 2
1977-05-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-041.0 836 933 27.19% 25.76% 47.05%-0.45 +33.5 3
1977-05-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-241.0 933 836 47.05% 25.76% 27.19%+0.45 -33.5 3
1977-05-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-048.6 936 873 48.54% 25.77% 25.69%+0.43 -2.1 3
1977-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-048.6 873 936 25.69% 25.77% 48.54%-0.43 +2.1 1
1977-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-137.3 900 1038 22.54% 25.55% 51.92%-0.67 -10.0 3
1977-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.3 1038 900 51.92% 25.55% 22.54%+0.67 +10.0 4
1977-05-25 Keflavik IF L 1-243.6 869 969 26.85% 25.74% 47.41%-0.46 -10.8 3
1977-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-143.6 969 869 47.41% 25.74% 26.85%+0.46 +10.8 6
1977-05-25 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-146.2 1027 934 52.01% 25.63% 22.36%+0.59 -19.4 4
1977-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-046.2 934 1027 22.36% 25.63% 52.01%-0.59 +19.4 5
1977-05-25 IA Akranes W 3-148.5 912 1079 19.63% 25.35% 55.02%-0.83 +33.4 3
1977-05-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-348.5 1079 912 55.02% 25.35% 19.63%+0.83 -33.4 6
1977-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-139.9 1048 875 59.78% 25.05% 15.17%+1.03 +6.8 6
1977-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-239.9 875 1048 15.17% 25.05% 59.78%-1.03 -6.8 1
1977-05-28 Thor Akureyri L 0-141.9 925 945 37.54% 25.92% 36.54%-0.02 -14.8 3
1977-05-28 @ Breidablik W 1-041.9 945 925 36.54% 25.92% 37.54%+0.02 +14.8 5
1977-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-034.6 1046 859 60.95% 24.92% 14.13%+1.11 +6.7 8
1977-05-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-134.6 859 1046 14.13% 24.92% 60.95%-1.11 -6.7 3
1977-05-28 Fram Reykjavik D 2-257.8 980 1008 36.40% 25.92% 37.68%-0.07 +0.1 7
1977-05-28 @ Keflavik IF D 2-257.8 1008 980 37.68% 25.92% 36.40%+0.07 -0.1 5
1977-05-31 Breidablik L 0-236.6 852 911 32.09% 25.88% 42.03%-0.24 -24.9 3
1977-05-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-036.6 911 852 42.03% 25.88% 32.09%+0.24 +24.8 5
1977-05-31 IA Akranes L 1-245.8 1008 1053 34.00% 25.90% 40.10%-0.16 -13.0 5
1977-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.8 1053 1008 40.10% 25.90% 34.00%+0.16 +13.0 10
1977-05-31 Valur Reykjavik L 0-235.2 960 1055 27.48% 25.76% 46.75%-0.43 -22.0 5
1977-05-31 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-035.2 1055 960 46.75% 25.76% 27.48%+0.43 +22.0 8
1977-06-04 Fram Reykjavik W 4-142.0 935 995 32.01% 25.87% 42.12%-0.24 +37.4 7
1977-06-04 @ Breidablik L 1-442.0 995 935 42.12% 25.87% 32.01%+0.24 -37.4 5
1977-06-04 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.7 1066 953 54.03% 25.52% 20.45%+0.70 -2.8 11
1977-06-04 @ IA Akranes D 1-152.7 953 1066 20.45% 25.52% 54.03%-0.70 +2.8 6
1977-06-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.4 980 890 51.72% 25.64% 22.64%+0.58 +10.0 9
1977-06-04 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.4 890 980 22.64% 25.64% 51.72%-0.58 -10.0 3
1977-06-04 Thor Akureyri W 6-038.2 868 938 30.64% 25.85% 43.52%-0.30 +87.1 3
1977-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-638.2 938 868 43.52% 25.85% 30.64%+0.30 -87.1 5
1977-06-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-033.3 1077 827 65.47% 24.24% 10.30%+1.45 +5.0 10
1977-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-133.3 827 1077 10.30% 24.24% 65.47%-1.45 -5.0 3
1977-06-07 Keflavik IF W 1-042.3 956 990 35.47% 25.91% 38.61%-0.10 +15.1 8
1977-06-07 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-142.3 990 956 38.61% 25.91% 35.47%+0.10 -15.1 9
1977-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-248.4 973 955 42.73% 25.89% 31.38%+0.18 -15.5 7
1977-06-08 @ Breidablik W 2-148.4 955 973 31.38% 25.89% 42.73%-0.18 +15.5 5
1977-06-13 KR Reykjavik W 5-460.7 822 971 21.47% 25.48% 53.05%-0.73 +17.0 5
1977-06-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 4-560.7 971 822 53.05% 25.48% 21.47%+0.73 -17.0 5
1977-06-13 Thor Akureyri W 2-144.5 880 851 44.21% 25.87% 29.92%+0.24 +11.8 5
1977-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.5 851 880 29.92% 25.87% 44.21%-0.24 -11.8 5
1977-06-13 IA Akranes L 0-432.2 975 1063 28.38% 25.79% 45.82%-0.39 -42.9 9
1977-06-13 @ Keflavik IF W 4-032.2 1063 975 45.82% 25.79% 28.38%+0.39 +42.9 13
1977-06-13 Breidablik W 2-036.5 971 957 42.23% 25.90% 31.87%+0.16 +24.7 10
1977-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-236.5 957 971 31.87% 25.90% 42.23%-0.16 -24.7 7
1977-06-14 Valur Reykjavik D 0-048.7 957 1082 24.05% 25.63% 50.33%-0.60 +2.4 6
1977-06-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-048.7 1082 957 50.33% 25.63% 24.05%+0.60 -2.4 11
1977-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 2-039.7 891 954 31.63% 25.87% 42.50%-0.26 +30.8 7
1977-06-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-239.7 954 891 42.50% 25.87% 31.63%+0.26 -30.8 5
1977-06-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-030.7 1079 996 50.89% 25.68% 23.43%+0.54 +36.9 13
1977-06-17 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-430.7 996 1079 23.43% 25.68% 50.89%-0.54 -36.9 10
1977-06-18 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.7 839 839 40.32% 25.92% 33.76%+0.08 -14.8 5
1977-06-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-147.7 839 839 33.76% 25.92% 40.32%-0.08 +14.8 7
1977-06-19 Keflavik IF D 1-152.6 933 932 40.36% 25.92% 33.73%+0.09 -0.5 8
1977-06-19 @ Breidablik D 1-152.6 932 933 33.73% 25.92% 40.36%-0.09 +0.5 10
1977-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-028.5 1106 922 60.64% 24.96% 14.41%+1.09 +18.8 15
1977-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-328.5 922 1106 14.41% 24.96% 60.64%-1.09 -18.8 7
1977-06-19 Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.6 923 960 35.08% 25.91% 39.01%-0.12 +0.3 6
1977-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-152.6 960 923 39.01% 25.91% 35.08%+0.12 -0.3 7
1977-06-22 IA Akranes W 1-047.7 932 1124 17.41% 25.15% 57.43%-0.97 +21.3 10
1977-06-22 @ Breidablik L 0-147.7 1124 932 57.43% 25.15% 17.41%+0.97 -21.3 15
1977-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-137.5 903 854 46.88% 25.82% 27.31%+0.36 +26.9 9
1977-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-437.5 854 903 27.31% 25.82% 46.88%-0.36 -26.9 7
1977-06-22 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-237.5 923 959 35.21% 25.91% 38.88%-0.11 -26.6 6
1977-06-22 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-037.5 959 923 38.88% 25.91% 35.21%+0.11 +26.6 12
1977-06-23 Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.7 824 960 22.86% 25.57% 51.57%-0.66 +2.4 6
1977-06-23 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-152.7 960 824 51.57% 25.57% 22.86%+0.66 -2.4 8
1977-06-23 Keflavik IF D 0-048.9 1116 933 60.64% 24.96% 14.41%+1.09 -4.5 14
1977-06-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-048.9 933 1116 14.41% 24.96% 60.64%-1.09 +4.5 11
1977-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-048.6 986 930 47.60% 25.80% 26.60%+0.39 -1.9 13
1977-06-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-048.6 930 986 26.60% 25.80% 47.60%-0.39 +1.9 10
1977-07-02 KR Reykjavik W 4-244.8 937 896 45.76% 25.84% 28.39%+0.31 +17.5 13
1977-07-02 @ Keflavik IF L 2-444.8 896 937 28.39% 25.84% 45.76%-0.31 -17.5 6
1977-07-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-245.2 984 827 58.40% 25.19% 16.41%+0.94 +6.9 15
1977-07-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-345.2 827 984 16.41% 25.19% 58.40%-0.94 -6.9 6
1977-07-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-345.1 953 932 43.21% 25.89% 30.90%+0.20 -27.0 10
1977-07-03 @ Breidablik W 3-145.1 932 953 30.90% 25.89% 43.21%-0.20 +27.0 12
1977-07-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-446.0 957 827 55.87% 25.40% 18.73%+0.80 -47.9 8
1977-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-146.0 827 957 18.73% 25.40% 55.87%-0.80 +48.0 9
1977-07-03 Valur Reykjavik L 1-441.1 1103 1112 39.10% 25.92% 34.98%+0.04 -35.3 15
1977-07-03 @ IA Akranes W 4-141.1 1112 1103 34.98% 25.92% 39.10%-0.04 +35.3 16
1977-07-05 Keflavik IF L 1-242.3 820 955 22.88% 25.57% 51.56%-0.65 -9.5 6
1977-07-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-142.3 955 820 51.56% 25.57% 22.88%+0.65 +9.5 15
1977-07-06 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-436.8 875 991 24.99% 25.67% 49.34%-0.55 -25.0 9
1977-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-136.8 991 875 49.34% 25.67% 24.99%+0.55 +25.0 17
1977-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 3-032.6 959 909 46.91% 25.82% 27.28%+0.36 +31.8 14
1977-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-332.6 909 959 27.28% 25.82% 46.91%-0.36 -31.9 8
1977-07-06 IA Akranes L 0-232.0 879 1068 17.71% 25.18% 57.11%-0.95 -15.4 6
1977-07-06 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-032.0 1068 879 57.11% 25.18% 17.71%+0.95 +15.4 17
1977-07-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-026.6 1083 810 66.90% 23.94% 9.15%+1.58 +12.4 19
1977-07-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-326.6 810 1083 9.15% 23.94% 66.90%-1.58 -12.4 6
1977-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.7 964 850 54.30% 25.50% 20.20%+0.71 -3.2 16
1977-07-10 @ Keflavik IF D 0-048.7 850 964 20.20% 25.50% 54.30%-0.71 +3.2 10
1977-07-10 Breidablik L 1-245.0 864 926 31.55% 25.87% 42.59%-0.26 -12.3 6
1977-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-145.0 926 864 42.59% 25.87% 31.55%+0.26 +12.3 12
1977-07-11 Fram Reykjavik L 0-147.5 1016 877 56.66% 25.34% 18.00%+0.84 -21.0 17
1977-07-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-047.5 877 1016 18.00% 25.34% 56.66%-0.84 +21.0 10
1977-07-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-031.7 1147 991 58.29% 25.20% 16.51%+0.94 +14.5 18
1977-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-231.7 991 1147 16.51% 25.20% 58.29%-0.94 -14.5 14
1977-07-23 IA Akranes D 0-048.9 853 1096 13.56% 24.67% 61.77%-1.24 +4.7 11
1977-07-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.9 1096 853 61.77% 24.67% 13.56%+1.24 -4.7 20
1977-07-23 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-257.8 976 995 37.74% 25.92% 36.34%-0.02 -0.1 15
1977-07-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-257.8 995 976 36.34% 25.92% 37.74%+0.02 +0.1 18
1977-07-23 Breidablik L 1-338.7 798 939 22.28% 25.53% 52.19%-0.69 -16.1 6
1977-07-23 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-138.7 939 798 52.19% 25.53% 22.28%+0.69 +16.1 14
1977-07-24 Keflavik IF W 3-253.2 898 961 31.55% 25.87% 42.58%-0.26 +14.6 12
1977-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-353.2 961 898 42.58% 25.87% 31.55%+0.26 -14.6 16
1977-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-326.7 851 1162 9.64% 23.86% 66.50%-1.61 -12.9 6
1977-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-026.7 1162 851 66.50% 23.86% 9.64%+1.61 +12.9 20
1977-08-03 Breidablik W 3-027.7 1175 955 63.42% 24.58% 12.00%+1.29 +15.9 22
1977-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-327.7 955 1175 12.00% 24.58% 63.42%-1.29 -15.9 14
1977-08-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-242.2 838 976 22.58% 25.55% 51.87%-0.67 -9.4 6
1977-08-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-142.2 976 838 51.87% 25.55% 22.58%+0.67 +9.4 17
1977-08-06 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-152.6 939 858 50.65% 25.69% 23.66%+0.53 -2.2 15
1977-08-06 @ Breidablik D 1-152.6 858 939 23.66% 25.69% 50.65%-0.53 +2.2 12
1977-08-06 Fram Reykjavik W 4-240.4 1091 913 60.17% 25.01% 14.82%+1.06 +10.2 22
1977-08-06 @ IA Akranes L 2-440.4 913 1091 14.82% 25.01% 60.17%-1.06 -10.3 12
1977-08-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-036.6 947 995 33.52% 25.90% 40.59%-0.18 +43.1 18
1977-08-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-336.6 995 947 40.59% 25.90% 33.52%+0.18 -43.1 18
1977-08-06 Thor Akureyri W 4-236.4 1190 782 73.53% 21.89% 4.58%+2.32 +3.3 24
1977-08-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-436.4 782 1190 4.58% 21.89% 73.53%-2.32 -3.3 6
1977-08-12 KR Reykjavik L 2-350.4 778 829 33.20% 25.89% 40.91%-0.19 -12.1 6
1977-08-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-250.4 829 778 40.91% 25.89% 33.20%+0.19 +12.1 8
1977-08-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.3 860 1194 8.55% 23.54% 67.92%-1.74 +5.4 13
1977-08-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.3 1194 860 67.92% 23.54% 8.55%+1.74 -5.4 25
1977-08-14 Breidablik L 1-440.0 903 937 35.51% 25.91% 38.58%-0.10 -32.8 12
1977-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-140.0 937 903 38.58% 25.91% 35.51%+0.10 +32.8 17
1977-08-14 Keflavik IF W 3-250.8 986 990 39.78% 25.92% 34.30%+0.06 +12.4 19
1977-08-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-350.8 990 986 34.30% 25.92% 39.78%-0.06 -12.4 18
1977-08-15 IA Akranes L 0-330.7 952 1101 21.41% 25.48% 53.11%-0.73 -26.2 18
1977-08-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-030.7 1101 952 53.11% 25.48% 21.41%+0.73 +26.2 24
1977-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.6 970 926 46.16% 25.83% 28.01%+0.32 -1.4 18
1977-08-20 @ Breidablik D 1-152.6 926 970 28.01% 25.83% 46.16%-0.32 +1.4 19
1977-08-20 Keflavik IF W 4-134.3 1127 977 57.74% 25.25% 17.02%+0.90 +18.3 26
1977-08-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-434.3 977 1127 17.02% 25.25% 57.74%-0.90 -18.3 18
1977-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-257.8 841 865 36.89% 25.92% 37.19%-0.05 +0.0 9
1977-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-257.8 865 841 37.19% 25.92% 36.89%+0.05 -0.0 14
1977-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-427.7 766 998 14.31% 24.78% 60.91%-1.18 -24.3 6
1977-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-027.7 998 766 60.91% 24.78% 14.31%+1.18 +24.3 21
1977-08-21 Fram Reykjavik D 3-362.7 1188 870 69.43% 23.32% 7.26%+1.82 -3.5 26
1977-08-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-362.7 870 1188 7.26% 23.32% 69.43%-1.82 +3.5 13
1977-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 5-238.1 865 742 55.16% 25.45% 19.39%+0.76 +17.7 16
1977-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-538.1 742 865 19.39% 25.45% 55.16%-0.76 -17.7 6
1977-08-23 IA Akranes L 0-137.9 1022 1146 24.20% 25.63% 50.17%-0.59 -10.6 21
1977-08-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.9 1146 1022 50.17% 25.63% 24.20%+0.59 +10.6 28
1977-08-23 Breidablik W 3-251.0 959 968 39.05% 25.92% 35.03%+0.03 +12.6 20
1977-08-23 @ Keflavik IF L 2-351.0 968 959 35.03% 25.92% 39.05%-0.03 -12.6 18
1977-08-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-152.6 873 841 44.67% 25.86% 29.46%+0.26 -1.2 14
1977-08-24 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.6 841 873 29.46% 25.86% 44.67%-0.26 +1.2 10
1977-08-25 Valur Reykjavik D 3-362.3 927 1185 12.57% 24.50% 62.93%-1.32 +2.8 20
1977-08-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-362.3 1185 927 62.93% 24.50% 12.57%+1.32 -2.8 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-06-22 17.41% @ Breidablik 932 1 IA Akranes 1124 0
2 1977-07-11 18.00% Fram Reykjavik 877 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1016 0
3 1977-07-03 18.73% FH Hafnarfjordur 827 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 957 1
4 1977-05-07 19.26% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 895 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1019 0
5 1977-05-25 19.63% @ Thor Akureyri 912 3 IA Akranes 1079 1
6 1977-05-07 21.43% @ Breidablik 925 4 Valur Reykjavik 1074 3
7 1977-06-13 21.47% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 822 5 KR Reykjavik 971 4
8 1977-05-25 22.36% Vikingur Reykjavik 934 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1027 0
9 1977-05-15 27.19% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 836 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 933 0
10 1977-05-11 30.33% IA Akranes 1031 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1056 0
11 1977-06-04 30.64% @ KR Reykjavik 868 6 Thor Akureyri 938 0
12 1977-07-03 30.90% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 932 3 @ Breidablik 953 1
13 1977-06-08 31.38% KR Reykjavik 955 2 @ Breidablik 973 1
14 1977-07-24 31.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 898 3 Keflavik IF 961 2
15 1977-06-16 31.63% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 891 2 KR Reykjavik 954 0
16 1977-06-04 32.01% @ Breidablik 935 4 Fram Reykjavik 995 1
17 1977-08-06 33.52% @ Keflavik IF 947 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 995 0
18 1977-06-18 33.76% FH Hafnarfjordur 839 2 @ Thor Akureyri 839 1
19 1977-07-03 34.98% Valur Reykjavik 1112 4 @ IA Akranes 1103 1
20 1977-06-07 35.47% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 956 1 Keflavik IF 990 0
21 1977-05-28 36.54% Thor Akureyri 945 1 @ Breidablik 925 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-06-04 87.10 @ KR Reykjavik 6 868 30.64% Thor Akureyri 0 938 43.52% 25.85%
2 1977-07-03 47.95 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 827 18.73% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 957 55.87% 25.40%
3 1977-08-06 43.08 @ Keflavik IF 3 947 33.52% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 995 40.59% 25.90%
4 1977-06-13 42.89 IA Akranes 4 1063 45.82% @ Keflavik IF 0 975 28.38% 25.79%
5 1977-05-07 38.78 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 895 19.26% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1019 55.31% 25.44%
6 1977-06-04 37.41 @ Breidablik 4 935 32.01% Fram Reykjavik 1 995 42.12% 25.87%
7 1977-06-17 36.89 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1079 50.89% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 996 23.43% 25.68%
8 1977-07-03 35.29 Valur Reykjavik 4 1112 34.98% @ IA Akranes 1 1103 39.10% 25.92%
9 1977-05-15 33.48 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 836 27.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 933 47.05% 25.76%
10 1977-05-25 33.37 @ Thor Akureyri 3 912 19.63% IA Akranes 1 1079 55.02% 25.35%
11 1977-08-14 32.84 Breidablik 4 937 38.58% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 903 35.51% 25.91%
12 1977-07-06 31.85 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 959 46.91% Fram Reykjavik 0 909 27.28% 25.82%
13 1977-05-11 31.53 IA Akranes 2 1031 30.33% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1056 43.79% 25.88%
14 1977-06-16 30.77 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 891 31.63% KR Reykjavik 0 954 42.50% 25.87%
15 1977-05-11 29.83 Fram Reykjavik 3 981 49.20% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 866 25.12% 25.68%
16 1977-07-03 27.01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 932 30.90% @ Breidablik 1 953 43.21% 25.89%
17 1977-06-22 26.88 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 903 46.88% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 854 27.31% 25.82%
18 1977-06-22 26.65 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 959 38.88% @ KR Reykjavik 0 923 35.21% 25.91%
19 1977-08-15 26.21 IA Akranes 3 1101 53.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 952 21.41% 25.48%
20 1977-07-06 25.04 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 991 49.34% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 875 24.99% 25.67%
21 1977-05-31 24.85 Breidablik 2 911 42.03% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 852 32.09% 25.88%
22 1977-05-10 24.72 Keflavik IF 2 958 42.24% @ KR Reykjavik 0 897 31.88% 25.87%
23 1977-06-13 24.72 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 971 42.23% Breidablik 0 957 31.87% 25.90%
24 1977-08-20 24.28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 998 60.91% @ Thor Akureyri 0 766 14.31% 24.78%
25 1977-05-31 22.04 Valur Reykjavik 2 1055 46.75% @ Thor Akureyri 0 960 27.48% 25.76%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-08-21 62.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1188 69.43% Fram Reykjavik 3 870 7.26% 23.32%
2 1977-08-25 62.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 927 12.57% Valur Reykjavik 3 1185 62.93% 24.50%
3 1977-06-13 60.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 822 21.47% KR Reykjavik 4 971 53.05% 25.48%
4 1977-05-07 59.3 @ Breidablik 4 925 21.43% Valur Reykjavik 3 1074 53.09% 25.48%
5 1977-05-28 57.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 980 36.40% Fram Reykjavik 2 1008 37.68% 25.92%
6 1977-07-23 57.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 976 37.74% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 995 36.34% 25.92%
7 1977-08-20 57.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 841 36.89% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 865 37.19% 25.92%
8 1977-08-14 53.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 860 8.55% Valur Reykjavik 1 1194 67.92% 23.54%
9 1977-07-24 53.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 898 31.55% Keflavik IF 2 961 42.58% 25.87%
10 1977-06-04 52.7 @ IA Akranes 1 1066 54.03% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 953 20.45% 25.52%
11 1977-06-23 52.7 @ Thor Akureyri 1 824 22.86% Fram Reykjavik 1 960 51.57% 25.57%
12 1977-05-08 52.6 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 938 49.83% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 864 24.45% 25.72%
13 1977-05-11 52.6 @ Thor Akureyri 1 929 39.38% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 936 34.70% 25.92%
14 1977-06-19 52.6 @ Breidablik 1 933 40.36% Keflavik IF 1 932 33.73% 25.92%
15 1977-06-19 52.6 @ KR Reykjavik 1 923 35.08% Fram Reykjavik 1 960 39.01% 25.91%
16 1977-08-06 52.6 @ Breidablik 1 939 50.65% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 858 23.66% 25.69%
17 1977-08-20 52.6 @ Breidablik 1 970 46.16% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 926 28.01% 25.83%
18 1977-08-24 52.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 873 44.67% KR Reykjavik 1 841 29.46% 25.86%
19 1977-08-23 51.0 @ Keflavik IF 3 959 39.05% Breidablik 2 968 35.03% 25.92%
20 1977-08-14 50.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 986 39.78% Keflavik IF 2 990 34.30% 25.92%
21 1977-05-07 50.4 @ Keflavik IF 3 946 40.96% Thor Akureyri 2 941 33.13% 25.91%
22 1977-08-12 50.4 KR Reykjavik 3 829 40.91% @ Thor Akureyri 2 778 33.20% 25.89%
23 1977-06-23 48.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1116 60.64% Keflavik IF 0 933 14.41% 24.96%
24 1977-07-23 48.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 853 13.56% IA Akranes 0 1096 61.77% 24.67%
25 1977-06-14 48.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 0 957 24.05% Valur Reykjavik 0 1082 50.33% 25.63%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-07-09 26.6 @ IA Akranes 3 1083 66.90% Thor Akureyri 0 810 9.15% 23.94%
2 1977-07-25 26.7 Valur Reykjavik 3 1162 66.50% @ KR Reykjavik 0 851 9.64% 23.86%
3 1977-08-03 27.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1175 63.42% Breidablik 0 955 12.00% 24.58%
4 1977-08-20 27.7 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 998 60.91% @ Thor Akureyri 0 766 14.31% 24.78%
5 1977-06-19 28.5 @ IA Akranes 3 1106 60.64% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 922 14.41% 24.96%
6 1977-06-17 30.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1079 50.89% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 996 23.43% 25.68%
7 1977-08-15 30.7 IA Akranes 3 1101 53.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 952 21.41% 25.48%
8 1977-07-15 31.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1147 58.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 991 16.51% 25.20%
9 1977-05-11 31.9 Fram Reykjavik 3 981 49.20% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 866 25.12% 25.68%
10 1977-07-06 32.0 IA Akranes 2 1068 57.11% @ KR Reykjavik 0 879 17.71% 25.18%
11 1977-06-13 32.2 IA Akranes 4 1063 45.82% @ Keflavik IF 0 975 28.38% 25.79%
12 1977-07-06 32.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 959 46.91% Fram Reykjavik 0 909 27.28% 25.82%
13 1977-05-14 32.7 @ IA Akranes 2 1062 54.85% Breidablik 0 942 19.69% 25.47%
14 1977-06-06 33.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1077 65.47% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 827 10.30% 24.24%
15 1977-08-20 34.3 @ IA Akranes 4 1127 57.74% Keflavik IF 1 977 17.02% 25.25%
16 1977-05-28 34.6 @ IA Akranes 1 1046 60.95% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 859 14.13% 24.92%
17 1977-05-31 35.2 Valur Reykjavik 2 1055 46.75% @ Thor Akureyri 0 960 27.48% 25.76%
18 1977-08-06 36.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1190 73.53% Thor Akureyri 2 782 4.58% 21.89%
19 1977-05-10 36.5 Keflavik IF 2 958 42.24% @ KR Reykjavik 0 897 31.88% 25.87%
20 1977-06-13 36.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 971 42.23% Breidablik 0 957 31.87% 25.90%
21 1977-05-07 36.6 @ IA Akranes 1 1022 54.34% KR Reykjavik 0 907 20.16% 25.50%
22 1977-05-31 36.6 Breidablik 2 911 42.03% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 852 32.09% 25.88%
23 1977-08-06 36.6 @ Keflavik IF 3 947 33.52% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 995 40.59% 25.90%
24 1977-07-06 36.8 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 991 49.34% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 875 24.99% 25.67%
25 1977-05-23 37.3 Valur Reykjavik 1 1038 51.92% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 900 22.54% 25.55%