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1976 Úrvalsdeild Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

25 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1967.0

Relegated

Throttur Reykjavik

4 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

6.84 points above expected

24 points · 17.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KR Reykjavik

5.37 points below expected

11 points · 16.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 16 10 5 1 25 45 14 +31 22.82 +2.18
2 Fram Reykjavik 16 10 4 2 24 30 16 +14 17.16 +6.84
3 IA Akranes 16 8 5 3 21 27 19 +8 19.74 +1.26
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 16 8 2 6 18 22 21 +1 17.65 +0.35
5 Breidablik 16 8 2 6 18 21 22 -1 13.21 +4.79
6 Keflavik IF 16 6 3 7 15 22 23 -1 16.76 -1.76
7 KR Reykjavik 16 3 5 8 11 20 23 -3 16.37 -5.37
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 2 4 10 8 11 31 -20 12.13 -4.13
9 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 16 1 2 13 4 10 39 -29 8.16 -4.16

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 24 17.16 +6.84
2 Breidablik 18 13.21 +4.79
3 Valur Reykjavik 25 22.82 +2.18
4 IA Akranes 21 19.74 +1.26
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 17.65 +0.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 11 16.37 -5.37
2 Throttur Reykjavik 4 8.16 -4.16
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 12.13 -4.13
4 Keflavik IF 15 16.76 -1.76
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 17.65 +0.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 8 – Jun 24 1 in 65
2 Breidablik 3 Jul 21 – Aug 8 1 in 42
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 7 – Jun 27 1 in 22
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 30 – Jun 21 1 in 13
5 IA Akranes 3 Aug 14 – Aug 22 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jul 1 – Aug 5 1 in 74
2 Throttur Reykjavik 8 May 13 – Jun 27 1 in 53
3 Keflavik IF 3 May 30 – Jun 13 1 in 53
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Jul 23 – Aug 22 1 in 33
5 KR Reykjavik 3 Aug 17 – Aug 31 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 13 Jun 7 – Aug 30 1 in 222
2 Breidablik 5 Jun 27 – Aug 8 1 in 30
3 Valur Reykjavik 11 May 15 – Jul 19 1 in 15
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 27 – Jul 3 1 in 14
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jun 8 – Jun 27 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 12 Jun 7 – Aug 22 1 in 38
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jun 27 – Aug 14 1 in 36
3 IA Akranes 4 Jul 3 – Aug 7 1 in 19
4 KR Reykjavik 5 May 23 – Jun 19 1 in 14
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jun 28 – Jul 4 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik 1254 25 +11 7 7.5 -0.5
Fram Reykjavik 1170 24 +74 8 6.1 +1.9
IA Akranes 1173 21 +70 7 6.0 +1.0
Breidablik 971 18 -13 6 5.2 +0.8
Vikingur Reykjavik 998 18 -18 5 5.6 -0.6
Keflavik IF 1011 15 +18 6 4.2 +1.8
KR Reykjavik 931 11 -64 2 4.9 -2.9
FH Hafnarfjordur 853 8 -31 2 2.9 -0.9
Throttur Reykjavik 738 4 -42 2 2.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA KR KI TR VR VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
3.08
0-0-2
1.88
0-0-2
2.04
1-1-0
2.13
2-0-0
1.94
2-0-0
3.91
0-1-1
1.35
1-0-1
1.73
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.45
 —
0-0-2
2.04
0-2-0
1.49
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
1.02
0-1-1
1.57
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
3.49
 —
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
4.29
0-2-0
1.61
1-0-1
2.66
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.50
0-2-0
4.05
1-1-0
3.20
 —
2-0-0
3.57
1-1-0
3.34
1-1-0
4.49
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
3.35
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.40
1-0-1
3.55
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-2
1.96
 —
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
3.96
0-2-0
1.62
1-0-1
2.68
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
3.60
1-1-0
3.41
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
2.20
2-0-0
2.99
 —
2-0-0
4.34
1-0-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.91
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.25
0-1-1
1.07
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
1.20
 —
0-0-2
0.67
0-0-2
1.20
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.53
0-2-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.34
0-2-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.49
2-0-0
4.91
 —
2-0-0
3.41
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.80
1-1-0
3.96
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.62
2-0-0
4.34
0-0-2
2.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +6.1
Allowed 0.90 -8.9
Differential 0.89 +3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.64%4.86%3.47%—2.08%23.61%
17.64%13.89%10.42%3.47%1.39%2.08%38.89%
24.86%10.42%2.78%2.08%0.69%—20.83%
33.47%3.47%2.08%—0.69%—9.72%
4—1.39%0.69%0.69%——2.78%
5+2.08%2.08%————4.17%
Total23.61%38.89%20.83%9.72%2.78%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 2.08
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%12.50%——37.50%
112.50%6.25%————18.75%
2—12.50%——6.25%—18.75%
3—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%50.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.38 -0.06
SD 1.25 1.15 1.73
CV 0.95 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%6.25%6.25%——6.25%37.50%
16.25%6.25%25.00%6.25%—12.50%56.25%
26.25%—————6.25%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%12.50%31.25%6.25%—18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 1.94 -1.25
SD 0.60 1.95 1.98
CV 0.88 1.01 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%———6.25%
118.75%25.00%6.25%———50.00%
2—18.75%————18.75%
36.25%—6.25%———12.50%
4———6.25%——6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total31.25%43.75%18.75%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.00 +0.88
SD 1.50 0.89 1.75
CV 0.80 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%————12.50%
16.25%18.75%—6.25%—6.25%37.50%
26.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
312.50%6.25%————18.75%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total31.25%50.00%6.25%6.25%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.19 +0.50
SD 1.14 1.52 2.07
CV 0.67 1.28 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%————25.00%
1—18.75%18.75%6.25%——43.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
3————6.25%—6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total12.50%50.00%25.00%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.44 -0.19
SD 1.13 1.03 1.28
CV 0.90 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
112.50%6.25%18.75%6.25%6.25%—50.00%
2—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total18.75%37.50%31.25%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.44 -0.06
SD 1.41 1.09 1.84
CV 1.02 0.76 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%18.75%6.25%—12.50%50.00%
1—12.50%18.75%—6.25%—37.50%
2—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—31.25%37.50%12.50%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 2.44 -1.81
SD 0.72 1.63 1.94
CV 1.15 0.67 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
1—25.00%————25.00%
212.50%—6.25%———18.75%
36.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+12.50%12.50%————25.00%
Total31.25%50.00%18.75%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.81 0.88 +1.94
SD 1.91 0.72 2.14
CV 0.68 0.82 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%——12.50%——18.75%
112.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
212.50%18.75%—12.50%——43.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%25.00%6.25%31.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.31 +0.06
SD 0.89 1.30 1.77
CV 0.64 0.99 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1254 25 22.82 +2.18 81.0% 16 18 21 23 25 27 30
IA Akranes 1173 21 19.74 +1.26 71.0% 12 14 17 20 22 25 27
Fram Reykjavik 1170 24 17.16 +6.84 99.0% 7 12 15 17 20 23 25
Keflavik IF 1011 15 16.76 -1.76 35.0% 7 11 14 17 19 23 25
Vikingur Reykjavik 998 18 17.65 +0.35 64.0% 11 13 16 17 19 22 28
Breidablik 971 18 13.21 +4.79 97.0% 2 8 11 13 15 18 20
KR Reykjavik 931 11 16.37 -5.37 7.0% 7 10 14 16 19 21 22
FH Hafnarfjordur 853 8 12.13 -4.13 11.0% 6 7 10 12 14 17 19
Throttur Reykjavik 738 4 8.16 -4.16 8.0% 2 4 6 8 10 13 14

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.78%
No Edge
37.50%22.22%40.28%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -9.65 Elo pts.
157 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
67%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.51 * Some Luck: 2.51 to 3.76 * Lucky: 3.76 to 5.02 * Wild Swing: 5.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1 * Close: 1 to 1.49 * Off: 1.49 to 1.99 * Way Off: 1.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.98 points
Lucky
03.148
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Pinpoint
01.252.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.00%
KR Reykjavik
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.21

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 165.00
2.03
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
80%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Notable Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.57
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.3 * Above Noise: 0.3 to 0.39 * Well Above Noise: 0.39 and up.
Probability calibration
0.96
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.37
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.184
Well Within Noise
00.1970.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Valur Reykjavik67.00%15.00%9.00%9.00%—————
Fram Reykjavik6.00%16.00%27.00%10.00%13.00%13.00%11.00%4.00%—
IA Akranes16.00%36.00%12.00%19.00%9.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%—
Vikingur Reykjavik6.00%9.00%21.00%22.00%21.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%—
Breidablik——2.00%13.00%9.00%15.00%32.00%21.00%8.00%
Keflavik IF4.00%14.00%11.00%13.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%6.00%2.00%
KR Reykjavik1.00%10.00%15.00%9.00%23.00%21.00%12.00%7.00%2.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur——3.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%21.00%44.00%12.00%
Throttur Reykjavik—————3.00%5.00%16.00%76.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 100% —
IA Akranes 100% —
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
Vikingur Reykjavik 100% —
KR Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Keflavik IF 98.00% 2.00%
Breidablik 92.00% 8.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 88.00% 12.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 24.00% 76.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1976-05-13 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-137.5 1003 892 52.59% 23.39% 24.02%+0.64 +30.0 2
1976-05-13 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-437.5 892 1003 24.02% 23.39% 52.59%-0.64 -30.1 0
1976-05-15 Valur Reykjavik L 2-443.1 917 1049 21.79% 23.31% 54.90%-0.90 -17.5 0
1976-05-15 @ Breidablik W 4-243.1 1049 917 54.90% 23.31% 21.79%+0.90 +17.5 2
1976-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 6-136.8 1070 1011 46.34% 23.51% 30.15%+0.32 +57.0 2
1976-05-15 @ Keflavik IF L 1-636.8 1011 1070 30.15% 23.51% 46.34%-0.32 -57.1 0
1976-05-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-033.3 1100 862 64.33% 22.75% 12.92%+1.46 +7.6 2
1976-05-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-133.3 862 1100 12.92% 22.75% 64.33%-1.46 -7.6 0
1976-05-16 Fram Reykjavik W 2-038.8 1024 1034 36.81% 23.56% 39.63%-0.12 +36.5 2
1976-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-238.8 1034 1024 39.63% 23.56% 36.81%+0.12 -36.4 0
1976-05-22 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-036.4 1066 1060 39.11% 23.56% 37.33%-0.02 +50.5 4
1976-05-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-336.4 1060 1066 37.33% 23.56% 39.11%+0.02 -50.5 2
1976-05-23 IA Akranes D 0-048.4 954 1108 19.63% 23.22% 57.15%-1.04 +4.5 1
1976-05-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.4 1108 954 57.15% 23.22% 19.63%+1.04 -4.5 3
1976-05-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-152.7 997 1033 33.27% 23.55% 43.18%-0.29 +1.0 1
1976-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.7 1033 997 43.18% 23.55% 33.27%+0.29 -1.0 3
1976-05-24 Keflavik IF L 1-237.9 854 1127 10.80% 22.50% 66.70%-1.80 -6.1 0
1976-05-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-137.9 1127 854 66.70% 22.50% 10.80%+1.80 +6.1 4
1976-05-27 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.7 1032 1117 26.91% 23.46% 49.63%-0.61 +2.3 4
1976-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-152.7 1117 1032 49.63% 23.46% 26.91%+0.61 -2.3 5
1976-05-30 KR Reykjavik D 0-048.4 900 1034 21.52% 23.30% 55.18%-0.92 +4.0 1
1976-05-30 @ Breidablik D 0-048.4 1034 900 55.18% 23.30% 21.52%+0.92 -4.0 5
1976-05-30 Keflavik IF W 2-039.3 1115 1133 35.57% 23.56% 40.87%-0.18 +37.3 7
1976-05-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-239.3 1133 1115 40.87% 23.56% 35.57%+0.18 -37.3 4
1976-05-31 IA Akranes L 1-242.4 998 1103 24.66% 23.40% 51.93%-0.73 -12.5 1
1976-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-142.4 1103 998 51.93% 23.40% 24.66%+0.73 +12.5 5
1976-06-04 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-234.1 848 958 24.06% 23.39% 52.55%-0.77 -24.6 0
1976-06-04 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-034.1 958 848 52.55% 23.39% 24.06%+0.77 +24.6 3
1976-06-05 Breidablik L 1-253.1 1096 904 60.72% 23.03% 16.25%+1.17 -26.6 4
1976-06-05 @ Keflavik IF W 2-153.1 904 1096 16.25% 23.03% 60.72%-1.17 +26.6 3
1976-06-05 IA Akranes W 6-137.8 1152 1116 43.33% 23.54% 33.13%+0.17 +61.5 9
1976-06-05 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-637.8 1116 1152 33.13% 23.54% 43.33%-0.17 -61.5 5
1976-06-07 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-146.4 986 983 38.60% 23.56% 37.84%-0.04 +17.6 3
1976-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-246.4 983 986 37.84% 23.56% 38.60%+0.04 -17.6 3
1976-06-08 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-247.3 1030 1010 41.10% 23.56% 35.34%+0.07 -18.8 5
1976-06-08 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-147.3 1010 1030 35.34% 23.56% 41.10%-0.07 +18.8 4
1976-06-10 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-034.7 1003 824 59.60% 23.10% 17.30%+1.08 +9.9 5
1976-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-134.7 824 1003 17.30% 23.10% 59.60%-1.08 -9.9 0
1976-06-12 Breidablik W 2-033.6 1054 930 54.05% 23.34% 22.61%+0.73 +23.3 7
1976-06-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-233.6 930 1054 22.61% 23.34% 54.05%-0.73 -23.3 3
1976-06-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-132.2 1213 965 65.05% 22.68% 12.27%+1.52 +21.7 11
1976-06-12 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-532.2 965 1213 12.27% 22.68% 65.05%-1.52 -21.7 3
1976-06-13 Keflavik IF W 2-148.2 1028 1069 32.53% 23.54% 43.93%-0.32 +19.8 6
1976-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-248.2 1069 1028 43.93% 23.54% 32.53%+0.32 -19.8 4
1976-06-15 Breidablik W 1-035.8 1048 907 55.90% 23.27% 20.83%+0.84 +11.5 8
1976-06-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-135.8 907 1048 20.83% 23.27% 55.90%-0.84 -11.6 3
1976-06-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-141.9 1077 1060 40.73% 23.56% 35.71%+0.05 -19.8 7
1976-06-19 @ IA Akranes W 1-041.9 1060 1077 35.71% 23.56% 40.73%-0.05 +19.8 10
1976-06-19 Keflavik IF L 1-244.9 1011 1050 32.88% 23.54% 43.58%-0.31 -15.8 5
1976-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-144.9 1050 1011 43.58% 23.54% 32.88%+0.31 +15.8 6
1976-06-20 Breidablik L 0-143.1 944 896 44.91% 23.53% 31.56%+0.25 -21.4 3
1976-06-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-043.1 896 944 31.56% 23.53% 44.91%-0.25 +21.4 5
1976-06-21 Valur Reykjavik L 0-626.3 814 1235 4.97% 21.14% 73.89%-2.75 -16.0 0
1976-06-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 6-026.3 1235 814 73.89% 21.14% 4.97%+2.75 +16.0 13
1976-06-23 Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.3 917 1013 25.64% 23.43% 50.93%-0.68 -13.7 5
1976-06-23 @ Breidablik W 1-037.3 1013 917 50.93% 23.43% 25.64%+0.68 +13.7 7
1976-06-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-235.4 922 995 28.40% 23.49% 48.12%-0.53 -28.1 3
1976-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-035.4 995 922 48.12% 23.49% 28.40%+0.53 +28.1 7
1976-06-23 Keflavik IF W 4-142.1 1058 1065 37.12% 23.56% 39.32%-0.11 +44.4 9
1976-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-442.1 1065 1058 39.32% 23.56% 37.12%+0.11 -44.4 6
1976-06-24 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-229.7 798 1080 10.32% 22.44% 67.25%-1.86 -11.7 0
1976-06-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-029.7 1080 798 67.25% 22.44% 10.32%+1.86 +11.7 12
1976-06-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-143.3 1102 1024 48.79% 23.47% 27.74%+0.44 +13.8 11
1976-06-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-243.3 1024 1102 27.74% 23.47% 48.79%-0.44 -13.8 7
1976-06-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-247.1 903 786 53.32% 23.36% 23.32%+0.69 +11.3 7
1976-06-27 @ Breidablik L 2-347.1 786 903 23.32% 23.36% 53.32%-0.69 -11.4 0
1976-06-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-140.9 1021 1027 37.38% 23.56% 39.06%-0.10 -18.5 6
1976-06-27 @ Keflavik IF W 1-040.9 1027 1021 39.06% 23.56% 37.38%+0.10 +18.5 9
1976-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.5 1091 894 61.12% 23.00% 15.88%+1.20 -5.6 13
1976-06-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-048.5 894 1091 15.88% 23.00% 61.12%-1.20 +5.6 4
1976-06-28 Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1251 1045 61.86% 22.95% 15.19%+1.25 -5.2 14
1976-06-28 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1045 1251 15.19% 22.95% 61.86%-1.25 +5.2 10
1976-06-30 Keflavik IF D 0-048.3 900 1003 24.90% 23.41% 51.69%-0.72 +3.1 5
1976-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.3 1003 900 51.69% 23.41% 24.90%+0.72 -3.1 7
1976-06-30 KR Reykjavik D 1-152.9 775 1010 13.11% 22.77% 64.12%-1.56 +5.7 1
1976-06-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1010 775 64.12% 22.77% 13.11%+1.56 -5.7 8
1976-07-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-253.1 1050 1086 33.30% 23.55% 43.15%-0.29 +18.5 12
1976-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-353.1 1086 1050 43.15% 23.55% 33.30%+0.29 -18.5 13
1976-07-03 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-152.8 1116 903 62.43% 22.91% 14.66%+1.30 -5.3 12
1976-07-03 @ IA Akranes D 1-152.8 903 1116 14.66% 22.91% 62.43%-1.30 +5.3 6
1976-07-04 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-139.1 999 781 62.90% 22.87% 14.22%+1.34 +7.8 9
1976-07-04 @ Keflavik IF L 1-239.1 781 999 14.22% 22.87% 62.90%-1.34 -7.8 1
1976-07-04 Breidablik D 1-153.1 1246 915 70.01% 22.02% 7.97%+2.05 -7.2 15
1976-07-04 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.1 915 1246 7.97% 22.02% 70.01%-2.05 +7.2 8
1976-07-05 Fram Reykjavik L 3-451.8 1004 1069 29.41% 23.50% 47.08%-0.48 -13.4 8
1976-07-05 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-351.8 1069 1004 47.08% 23.50% 29.41%+0.48 +13.4 14
1976-07-08 Valur Reykjavik L 2-345.5 1067 1239 17.98% 23.14% 58.88%-1.16 -9.1 13
1976-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-245.5 1239 1067 58.88% 23.14% 17.98%+1.16 +9.1 17
1976-07-18 Keflavik IF W 2-143.4 1082 1007 48.37% 23.48% 28.14%+0.42 +14.0 16
1976-07-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-243.4 1007 1082 28.14% 23.48% 48.37%-0.42 -13.9 9
1976-07-19 KR Reykjavik D 2-258.7 1248 991 65.68% 22.62% 11.70%+1.58 -4.6 18
1976-07-19 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-258.7 991 1248 11.70% 22.62% 65.68%-1.58 +4.6 9
1976-07-20 IA Akranes D 1-153.1 773 1111 7.71% 21.96% 70.33%-2.22 +7.3 2
1976-07-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-153.1 1111 773 70.33% 21.96% 7.71%+2.22 -7.3 13
1976-07-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-149.1 922 1058 21.31% 23.29% 55.40%-0.93 +42.1 10
1976-07-21 @ Breidablik L 1-349.1 1058 922 55.40% 23.29% 21.31%+0.93 -42.1 13
1976-07-23 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-251.3 908 780 54.55% 23.32% 22.13%+0.76 -24.0 6
1976-07-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-151.3 780 908 22.13% 23.32% 54.55%-0.76 +24.0 4
1976-07-24 Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.7 1103 1096 39.21% 23.56% 37.23%-0.02 -0.2 14
1976-07-24 @ IA Akranes D 1-152.7 1096 1103 37.23% 23.56% 39.21%+0.02 +0.2 17
1976-07-25 Valur Reykjavik W 1-049.0 993 1243 12.14% 22.67% 65.19%-1.66 +30.4 11
1976-07-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-149.0 1243 993 65.19% 22.67% 12.14%+1.66 -30.4 18
1976-07-25 Breidablik L 0-142.5 995 964 42.63% 23.55% 33.82%+0.14 -20.5 9
1976-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-042.5 964 995 33.82% 23.55% 42.63%-0.14 +20.5 12
1976-08-05 KR Reykjavik L 1-248.2 1016 975 43.96% 23.54% 32.50%+0.20 -19.8 13
1976-08-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-148.2 975 1016 32.50% 23.54% 43.96%-0.20 +19.8 11
1976-08-07 Fram Reykjavik L 1-239.2 884 1097 14.71% 22.91% 62.38%-1.42 -8.1 6
1976-08-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-139.2 1097 884 62.38% 22.91% 14.71%+1.42 +8.1 19
1976-08-07 Valur Reykjavik L 1-339.9 1103 1213 24.09% 23.39% 52.52%-0.76 -21.3 14
1976-08-07 @ IA Akranes W 3-139.9 1213 1103 52.52% 23.39% 24.09%+0.76 +21.3 20
1976-08-08 Keflavik IF W 3-145.7 984 1024 32.75% 23.54% 43.71%-0.31 +34.1 14
1976-08-08 @ Breidablik L 1-345.7 1024 984 43.71% 23.54% 32.75%+0.31 -34.1 11
1976-08-14 IA Akranes L 0-334.0 1019 1082 29.63% 23.51% 46.87%-0.47 -42.2 14
1976-08-14 @ Breidablik W 3-034.0 1082 1019 46.87% 23.51% 29.63%+0.47 +42.2 16
1976-08-14 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.6 990 996 37.28% 23.56% 39.16%-0.10 +0.2 12
1976-08-14 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.6 996 990 39.16% 23.56% 37.28%+0.10 -0.2 14
1976-08-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-627.9 804 1105 9.35% 22.28% 68.36%-1.98 -29.6 4
1976-08-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 6-027.9 1105 804 68.36% 22.28% 9.35%+1.98 +29.6 21
1976-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-526.5 876 1234 6.93% 21.78% 71.29%-2.35 -18.7 6
1976-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-026.5 1234 876 71.29% 21.78% 6.93%+2.35 +18.7 22
1976-08-17 IA Akranes L 1-339.2 995 1124 22.01% 23.32% 54.67%-0.89 -19.8 11
1976-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-139.2 1124 995 54.67% 23.32% 22.01%+0.89 +19.8 18
1976-08-18 Breidablik L 1-239.5 774 976 15.48% 22.97% 61.55%-1.35 -8.4 4
1976-08-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-139.5 976 774 61.55% 22.97% 15.48%+1.35 +8.4 16
1976-08-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-241.3 858 996 21.10% 23.28% 55.61%-0.95 -11.0 6
1976-08-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-141.3 996 858 55.61% 23.28% 21.10%+0.95 +11.0 16
1976-08-19 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1134 1253 23.13% 23.36% 53.51%-0.82 +3.2 22
1976-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-152.9 1253 1134 53.51% 23.36% 23.13%+0.82 -3.2 23
1976-08-21 KR Reykjavik W 1-040.5 990 975 40.34% 23.56% 36.10%+0.03 +18.0 14
1976-08-21 @ Keflavik IF L 0-140.5 975 990 36.10% 23.56% 40.34%-0.03 -18.0 11
1976-08-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-138.9 985 847 55.60% 23.29% 21.11%+0.82 +19.1 18
1976-08-22 @ Breidablik L 1-338.9 847 985 21.11% 23.29% 55.60%-0.82 -19.1 6
1976-08-22 IA Akranes L 0-331.5 1007 1144 21.26% 23.29% 55.45%-0.94 -32.2 16
1976-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-031.5 1144 1007 55.45% 23.29% 21.26%+0.94 +32.2 20
1976-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-027.1 1250 766 75.99% 20.43% 3.57%+3.03 +4.1 25
1976-08-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-227.1 766 1250 3.57% 20.43% 75.99%-3.03 -4.1 4
1976-08-29 IA Akranes D 2-258.5 1008 1176 18.28% 23.15% 58.56%-1.14 +3.2 15
1976-08-29 @ Keflavik IF D 2-258.5 1176 1008 58.56% 23.15% 18.28%+1.14 -3.3 21
1976-08-29 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-029.4 975 762 62.44% 22.91% 14.65%+1.30 +23.4 18
1976-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-329.4 762 975 14.65% 22.91% 62.44%-1.30 -23.4 4
1976-08-30 Breidablik W 3-031.6 1137 1004 55.11% 23.30% 21.59%+0.79 +32.6 24
1976-08-30 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-331.6 1004 1137 21.59% 23.30% 55.11%-0.79 -32.6 18
1976-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-146.0 957 827 54.67% 23.32% 22.01%+0.76 -25.5 11
1976-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-046.0 827 957 22.01% 23.32% 54.67%-0.76 +25.5 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1976-07-25 12.14% @ Keflavik IF 993 1 Valur Reykjavik 1243 0
2 1976-06-05 16.25% Breidablik 904 2 @ Keflavik IF 1096 1
3 1976-07-21 21.31% @ Breidablik 922 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1058 1
4 1976-08-31 22.01% FH Hafnarfjordur 827 1 @ KR Reykjavik 957 0
5 1976-07-23 22.13% Throttur Reykjavik 780 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 908 1
6 1976-06-20 31.56% Breidablik 896 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 944 0
7 1976-08-05 32.50% KR Reykjavik 975 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1016 1
8 1976-06-13 32.53% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1028 2 Keflavik IF 1069 1
9 1976-08-08 32.75% @ Breidablik 984 3 Keflavik IF 1024 1
10 1976-07-01 33.30% @ Fram Reykjavik 1050 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1086 2
11 1976-07-25 33.82% Breidablik 964 1 @ KR Reykjavik 995 0
12 1976-06-08 35.34% Vikingur Reykjavik 1010 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1030 1
13 1976-05-30 35.57% @ Valur Reykjavik 1115 2 Keflavik IF 1133 0
14 1976-06-19 35.71% Vikingur Reykjavik 1060 1 @ IA Akranes 1077 0
15 1976-05-16 36.81% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1024 2 Fram Reykjavik 1034 0
16 1976-06-23 37.12% @ IA Akranes 1058 4 Keflavik IF 1065 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-06-05 61.46 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1152 43.33% IA Akranes 1 1116 33.13% 23.54%
2 1976-05-15 57.06 @ Keflavik IF 6 1070 46.34% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1011 30.15% 23.51%
3 1976-05-22 50.55 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1066 39.11% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1060 37.33% 23.56%
4 1976-06-23 44.36 @ IA Akranes 4 1058 37.12% Keflavik IF 1 1065 39.32% 23.56%
5 1976-08-14 42.21 IA Akranes 3 1082 46.87% @ Breidablik 0 1019 29.63% 23.51%
6 1976-07-21 42.15 @ Breidablik 3 922 21.31% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1058 55.40% 23.29%
7 1976-05-30 37.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1115 35.57% Keflavik IF 0 1133 40.87% 23.56%
8 1976-05-16 36.45 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1024 36.81% Fram Reykjavik 0 1034 39.63% 23.56%
9 1976-08-08 34.15 @ Breidablik 3 984 32.75% Keflavik IF 1 1024 43.71% 23.54%
10 1976-08-30 32.61 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1137 55.11% Breidablik 0 1004 21.59% 23.30%
11 1976-08-22 32.19 IA Akranes 3 1144 55.45% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1007 21.26% 23.29%
12 1976-07-25 30.39 @ Keflavik IF 1 993 12.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1243 65.19% 22.67%
13 1976-05-13 30.05 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1003 52.59% Throttur Reykjavik 1 892 24.02% 23.39%
14 1976-08-15 29.64 Fram Reykjavik 6 1105 68.36% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 804 9.35% 22.28%
15 1976-06-23 28.10 KR Reykjavik 2 995 48.12% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 922 28.40% 23.49%
16 1976-06-05 26.63 Breidablik 2 904 16.25% @ Keflavik IF 1 1096 60.72% 23.03%
17 1976-08-31 25.49 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 827 22.01% @ KR Reykjavik 0 957 54.67% 23.32%
18 1976-06-04 24.56 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 958 52.55% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 848 24.06% 23.39%
19 1976-07-23 23.98 Throttur Reykjavik 2 780 22.13% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 908 54.55% 23.32%
20 1976-08-29 23.36 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 975 62.44% Throttur Reykjavik 0 762 14.65% 22.91%
21 1976-06-12 23.34 @ IA Akranes 2 1054 54.05% Breidablik 0 930 22.61% 23.34%
22 1976-06-12 21.69 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1213 65.05% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 965 12.27% 22.68%
23 1976-06-20 21.39 Breidablik 1 896 31.56% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 944 44.91% 23.53%
24 1976-08-07 21.30 Valur Reykjavik 3 1213 52.52% @ IA Akranes 1 1103 24.09% 23.39%
25 1976-07-25 20.49 Breidablik 1 964 33.82% @ KR Reykjavik 0 995 42.63% 23.55%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-07-19 58.7 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1248 65.68% KR Reykjavik 2 991 11.70% 22.62%
2 1976-08-29 58.5 @ Keflavik IF 2 1008 18.28% IA Akranes 2 1176 58.56% 23.15%
3 1976-06-05 53.1 Breidablik 2 904 16.25% @ Keflavik IF 1 1096 60.72% 23.03%
4 1976-07-01 53.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1050 33.30% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1086 43.15% 23.55%
5 1976-07-04 53.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1246 70.01% Breidablik 1 915 7.97% 22.02%
6 1976-07-20 53.1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 773 7.71% IA Akranes 1 1111 70.33% 21.96%
7 1976-06-28 52.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1251 61.86% Fram Reykjavik 1 1045 15.19% 22.95%
8 1976-06-30 52.9 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 775 13.11% KR Reykjavik 1 1010 64.12% 22.77%
9 1976-08-19 52.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1134 23.13% Valur Reykjavik 1 1253 53.51% 23.36%
10 1976-07-03 52.8 @ IA Akranes 1 1116 62.43% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 903 14.66% 22.91%
11 1976-05-23 52.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 997 33.27% KR Reykjavik 1 1033 43.18% 23.55%
12 1976-05-27 52.7 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1032 26.91% Valur Reykjavik 1 1117 49.63% 23.46%
13 1976-07-24 52.7 @ IA Akranes 1 1103 39.21% Fram Reykjavik 1 1096 37.23% 23.56%
14 1976-08-14 52.6 @ Keflavik IF 1 990 37.28% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 996 39.16% 23.56%
15 1976-07-05 51.8 Fram Reykjavik 4 1069 47.08% @ KR Reykjavik 3 1004 29.41% 23.50%
16 1976-07-23 51.3 Throttur Reykjavik 2 780 22.13% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 908 54.55% 23.32%
17 1976-07-21 49.1 @ Breidablik 3 922 21.31% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1058 55.40% 23.29%
18 1976-07-25 49.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 993 12.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1243 65.19% 22.67%
19 1976-06-27 48.5 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1091 61.12% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 894 15.88% 23.00%
20 1976-05-23 48.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 954 19.63% IA Akranes 0 1108 57.15% 23.22%
21 1976-05-30 48.4 @ Breidablik 0 900 21.52% KR Reykjavik 0 1034 55.18% 23.30%
22 1976-06-30 48.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 900 24.90% Keflavik IF 0 1003 51.69% 23.41%
23 1976-06-13 48.2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1028 32.53% Keflavik IF 1 1069 43.93% 23.54%
24 1976-08-05 48.2 KR Reykjavik 2 975 32.50% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1016 43.96% 23.54%
25 1976-06-08 47.3 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1010 35.34% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1030 41.10% 23.56%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-06-21 26.3 Valur Reykjavik 6 1235 73.89% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 814 4.97% 21.14%
2 1976-08-16 26.5 Valur Reykjavik 5 1234 71.29% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 876 6.93% 21.78%
3 1976-08-23 27.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1250 75.99% Throttur Reykjavik 0 766 3.57% 20.43%
4 1976-08-15 27.9 Fram Reykjavik 6 1105 68.36% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 804 9.35% 22.28%
5 1976-08-29 29.4 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 975 62.44% Throttur Reykjavik 0 762 14.65% 22.91%
6 1976-06-24 29.7 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1080 67.25% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 798 10.32% 22.44%
7 1976-08-22 31.5 IA Akranes 3 1144 55.45% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1007 21.26% 23.29%
8 1976-08-30 31.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1137 55.11% Breidablik 0 1004 21.59% 23.30%
9 1976-06-12 32.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1213 65.05% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 965 12.27% 22.68%
10 1976-05-16 33.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1100 64.33% Throttur Reykjavik 0 862 12.92% 22.75%
11 1976-06-12 33.6 @ IA Akranes 2 1054 54.05% Breidablik 0 930 22.61% 23.34%
12 1976-08-14 34.0 IA Akranes 3 1082 46.87% @ Breidablik 0 1019 29.63% 23.51%
13 1976-06-04 34.1 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 958 52.55% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 848 24.06% 23.39%
14 1976-06-10 34.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1003 59.60% Throttur Reykjavik 0 824 17.30% 23.10%
15 1976-06-23 35.4 KR Reykjavik 2 995 48.12% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 922 28.40% 23.49%
16 1976-06-15 35.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1048 55.90% Breidablik 0 907 20.83% 23.27%
17 1976-05-22 36.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1066 39.11% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1060 37.33% 23.56%
18 1976-05-15 36.8 @ Keflavik IF 6 1070 46.34% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1011 30.15% 23.51%
19 1976-06-23 37.3 Fram Reykjavik 1 1013 50.93% @ Breidablik 0 917 25.64% 23.43%
20 1976-05-13 37.5 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1003 52.59% Throttur Reykjavik 1 892 24.02% 23.39%
21 1976-06-05 37.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 6 1152 43.33% IA Akranes 1 1116 33.13% 23.54%
22 1976-05-24 37.9 Keflavik IF 2 1127 66.70% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 854 10.80% 22.50%
23 1976-05-16 38.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1024 36.81% Fram Reykjavik 0 1034 39.63% 23.56%
24 1976-08-22 38.9 @ Breidablik 3 985 55.60% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 847 21.11% 23.29%
25 1976-07-04 39.1 @ Keflavik IF 2 999 62.90% Throttur Reykjavik 1 781 14.22% 22.87%