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1975 Úrvalsdeild Season

56 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

19 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 1974.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

3.25 points above expected

17 points · 13.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Keflavik IF

3.62 points below expected

13 points · 16.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 14 8 3 3 19 29 14 +15 17.41 +1.59
2 Fram Reykjavik 14 8 1 5 17 20 17 +3 13.75 +3.25
3 Valur Reykjavik 14 6 4 4 16 20 17 +3 14.27 +1.73
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 14 6 3 5 15 17 12 +5 11.99 +3.01
5 Keflavik IF 14 4 5 5 13 13 13 0 16.62 -3.62
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 14 4 5 5 13 11 21 -10 13.53 -0.53
7 KR Reykjavik 14 3 4 7 10 13 18 -5 12.00 -2.00
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated 14 2 5 7 9 11 22 -11 12.42 -3.42

Tiebreakers

  • IBV Vestmannaeyjar lost to Throttur Reykjavik 2-0 in a one-game promotion/relegation playoff and was relegated from the Urvalsdeild.

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1102 19 17.41 +1.59 74.6% 5 12 15 17 20 22 28
Keflavik IF 1050 13 16.62 -3.62 15.0% 5 12 15 17 19 21 27
Valur Reykjavik 1015 16 14.27 +1.73 76.1% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
Fram Reykjavik 991 17 13.75 +3.25 88.8% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Vikingur Reykjavik 970 15 11.99 +3.01 87.0% 2 7 10 12 14 17 24
FH Hafnarfjordur 957 13 13.53 -0.53 50.0% 3 8 11 14 16 19 24
KR Reykjavik 931 10 12.00 -2.00 31.9% 1 7 10 12 14 17 23
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 923 9 12.42 -3.42 17.5% 2 7 10 12 15 17 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR IA IV KR KI VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.01
0-2-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.99
0-2-0
2.08
1-0-1
2.52
0-0-2
3.00
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.70
 —
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-1
2.57
2-0-0
3.04
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
3.41
 —
1-0-1
3.64
1-1-0
3.65
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
3.36
0-2-0
3.70
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
1.82
 —
0-0-2
2.82
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.97
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.36
0-1-1
1.80
2-0-0
2.62
 —
0-0-2
1.91
0-2-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.61
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.27
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
3.48
2-0-0
3.54
 —
1-1-0
3.17
0-0-2
3.65
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.08
1-1-0
3.16
0-2-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.27
 —
2-0-0
3.11
Vikingur Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.40
0-2-0
1.76
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
1.80
0-0-2
2.32
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +4.9
Allowed 0.32 -5.4
Differential 0.77 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%16.07%4.46%0.89%0.89%—33.04%
116.07%8.93%7.14%0.89%—1.79%34.82%
24.46%7.14%7.14%2.68%0.89%—22.32%
30.89%0.89%2.68%——0.89%5.36%
40.89%—0.89%———1.79%
5+—1.79%—0.89%——2.68%
Total33.04%34.82%22.32%5.36%1.79%2.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.20 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.65
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
121.43%21.43%———7.14%50.00%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%21.43%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.50 -0.71
SD 0.70 1.83 1.98
CV 0.89 1.22 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
128.57%7.14%————35.71%
214.29%——7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.21 +0.21
SD 1.09 1.67 1.58
CV 0.76 1.38 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%————21.43%
121.43%7.14%————28.57%
2—14.29%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total35.71%42.86%7.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.00 +1.07
SD 2.16 1.04 2.02
CV 1.05 1.04 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%21.43%——7.14%—50.00%
1—7.14%14.29%——7.14%28.57%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%28.57%—7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.57 -0.79
SD 0.97 1.70 1.81
CV 1.24 1.08 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%7.14%———42.86%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%21.43%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.29 -0.36
SD 0.92 1.20 1.15
CV 0.99 0.94 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%28.57%————42.86%
114.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%50.00%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 0.93 +0.00
SD 1.14 0.73 0.96
CV 1.23 0.79 —
Max 4 2 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
114.29%—21.43%7.14%——42.86%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
37.14%—7.14%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%14.29%42.86%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.21 +0.21
SD 0.94 1.05 1.25
CV 0.66 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%7.14%———35.71%
121.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total35.71%42.86%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 0.86 +0.36
SD 1.58 0.77 1.74
CV 1.30 0.90 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 17 13.75 +3.25
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 15 11.99 +3.01
3 Valur Reykjavik 16 14.27 +1.73
4 IA Akranes 19 17.41 +1.59
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 13 13.53 -0.53

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 13 16.62 -3.62
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 12.42 -3.42
3 KR Reykjavik 10 12.00 -2.00
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 13 13.53 -0.53
5 IA Akranes 19 17.41 +1.59

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 Jun 21 – Jul 13 1 in 55
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Aug 31 1 in 32
3 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 2 – Jun 15 1 in 29
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jul 26 – Aug 8 1 in 17
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Jul 4 – Jul 12 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 28 – Jul 12 1 in 24
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 28 – Jul 10 1 in 22
3 KR Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 18 1 in 13
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 8 – Jun 14 1 in 7
5 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 30 – Jul 2 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Jul 19 – Aug 23 1 in 13
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 20 – Jun 19 1 in 9
3 IA Akranes 6 Jun 21 – Jul 20 1 in 6
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 26 – Jul 22 1 in 5
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 4 – Jul 20 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jun 19 – Jul 21 1 in 14
2 Keflavik IF 3 Aug 9 – Aug 23 1 in 9
3 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 13 – Aug 23 1 in 8
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jun 19 – Jul 19 1 in 7
5 IA Akranes 2 May 17 – May 31 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
IA Akranes43.83%22.98%13.61%8.43%5.06%3.34%1.93%0.82%
Fram Reykjavik7.30%11.93%14.58%16.12%15.02%14.32%11.66%9.07%
Valur Reykjavik9.53%14.68%16.52%15.68%14.89%12.05%9.75%6.90%
Vikingur Reykjavik3.06%5.94%8.90%11.25%14.14%16.67%19.18%20.86%
Keflavik IF26.21%24.77%17.50%12.53%8.34%5.53%3.56%1.56%
FH Hafnarfjordur5.46%8.95%12.87%13.88%14.89%15.88%14.32%13.75%
KR Reykjavik2.06%5.06%7.57%10.47%13.56%16.31%21.19%23.78%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar2.55%5.69%8.45%11.64%14.10%15.90%18.41%23.26%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.93%
Slight Edge
41.07%26.79%32.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 31.10 Elo pts.
222 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Top-Heavy
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
44%
IA Akranes, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.45 * Some Luck: 2.45 to 3.68 * Lucky: 3.68 to 4.9 * Wild Swing: 4.9 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.39 * Close: 1.39 to 2.08 * Off: 2.08 to 2.77 * Way Off: 2.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.76 * A Surprise: 0.76 to 1.22 * Several Surprises: 1.22 to 1.68 * Many Surprises: 1.68 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.60 points
Some Luck
03.078
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Close
01.734
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
88.75%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
14.97%
Keflavik IF
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.91
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
74%
Clear Edge
50%75%100%
Close Games
Expected
79%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
9%
Occasional
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.72
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.17
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.3 * Above Noise: 0.3 to 0.4 * Well Above Noise: 0.4 and up.
Probability calibration
0.47
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.62
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.141
Well Within Noise
00.2010.5

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 99.18% 0.82%
Keflavik IF 98.44% 1.56%
Valur Reykjavik 93.10% 6.90%
Fram Reykjavik 90.93% 9.07%
FH Hafnarfjordur 86.25% 13.75%
Vikingur Reykjavik 79.14% 20.86%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 76.74% 23.26%
KR Reykjavik 76.22% 23.78%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1975-05-17 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1005 965 47.4% 28.1% 24.5% +5.3 2
1975-05-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 965 1005 24.5% 28.1% 47.4% -5.4 0
1975-05-17 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1056 948 54.9% 27.1% 17.9% -1.7 1
1975-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 948 1056 17.9% 27.1% 54.9% +1.7 1
1975-05-17 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 969 931 47.1% 28.1% 24.8% -1.0 1
1975-05-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 931 969 24.8% 28.1% 47.1% +1.0 1
1975-05-20 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1071 994 51.6% 27.6% 20.8% -1.4 1
1975-05-20 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 994 1071 20.8% 27.6% 51.6% +1.4 1
1975-05-29 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 950 996 35.9% 28.4% 35.7% -0.0 2
1975-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 996 950 35.7% 28.4% 35.9% +0.0 2
1975-05-31 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1054 932 56.4% 26.9% 16.8% -1.7 2
1975-05-31 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 932 1054 16.8% 26.9% 56.4% +1.6 2
1975-05-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 968 1011 36.4% 28.4% 35.2% -0.0 2
1975-05-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1011 968 35.2% 28.4% 36.4% +0.1 3
1975-06-02 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1069 959 55.2% 27.1% 17.7% -10.1 1
1975-06-02 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 959 1069 17.7% 27.1% 55.2% +10.1 2
1975-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 969 968 42.4% 28.3% 29.2% +6.1 4
1975-06-08 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 968 969 29.2% 28.3% 42.4% -6.1 2
1975-06-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 7-1 1052 1011 47.6% 28.1% 24.4% +23.0 4
1975-06-08 @ IA Akranes L 1-7 1011 1052 24.4% 28.1% 47.6% -23.0 3
1975-06-08 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1059 950 55.1% 27.1% 17.8% +4.1 3
1975-06-08 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 950 1059 17.8% 27.1% 55.1% -4.1 2
1975-06-09 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 996 934 50.0% 27.8% 22.2% +4.9 4
1975-06-09 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 934 996 22.2% 27.8% 50.0% -4.9 2
1975-06-14 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 988 1001 40.5% 28.4% 31.1% -21.3 3
1975-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1001 988 31.1% 28.4% 40.5% +21.3 6
1975-06-14 IA Akranes W 3-2 962 1076 27.0% 28.0% 45.1% +7.6 4
1975-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1076 962 45.1% 28.0% 27.0% -7.6 4
1975-06-14 Keflavik IF W 1-0 929 1063 24.6% 27.7% 47.7% +8.8 4
1975-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1063 929 47.7% 27.7% 24.6% -8.9 3
1975-06-15 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 975 946 46.1% 28.2% 25.8% +10.5 6
1975-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 946 975 25.8% 28.2% 46.1% -10.5 2
1975-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1022 969 48.9% 27.9% 23.2% -0.8 7
1975-06-19 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 969 1022 23.2% 27.9% 48.9% +0.8 5
1975-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 935 938 42.0% 28.4% 29.7% +11.7 4
1975-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 938 935 29.7% 28.4% 42.0% -11.7 4
1975-06-21 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1068 986 52.2% 27.6% 20.2% +4.6 6
1975-06-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 986 1068 20.2% 27.6% 52.2% -4.6 6
1975-06-21 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1054 966 52.9% 27.5% 19.7% -1.0 4
1975-06-21 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 966 1054 19.7% 27.5% 52.9% +1.0 4
1975-06-26 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 981 926 49.2% 27.9% 22.9% +5.1 8
1975-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 926 981 22.9% 27.9% 49.2% -5.1 4
1975-06-28 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1073 1021 48.7% 28.0% 23.3% +4.9 8
1975-06-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1021 1073 23.3% 28.0% 48.7% -4.9 7
1975-06-28 Keflavik IF L 0-1 970 1053 30.8% 28.2% 41.0% -6.3 5
1975-06-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1053 970 41.0% 28.2% 30.8% +6.3 6
1975-06-29 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 967 947 44.9% 28.2% 26.9% +5.7 6
1975-06-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 947 967 26.9% 28.2% 44.9% -5.8 4
1975-06-30 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1077 1060 44.5% 28.2% 27.2% +5.8 10
1975-06-30 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1060 1077 27.2% 28.2% 44.5% -5.8 6
1975-07-01 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1016 986 46.1% 28.2% 25.7% -14.1 7
1975-07-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 986 1016 25.7% 28.2% 46.1% +14.1 10
1975-07-02 IA Akranes L 1-2 1054 1083 38.3% 28.4% 33.3% -7.0 6
1975-07-02 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1083 1054 33.3% 28.4% 38.3% +7.0 12
1975-07-04 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 921 973 35.0% 28.4% 36.6% +7.2 6
1975-07-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 973 921 36.6% 28.4% 35.0% -7.2 6
1975-07-05 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 964 941 45.2% 28.2% 26.6% -8.0 5
1975-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 941 964 26.6% 28.2% 45.2% +8.0 6
1975-07-10 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1002 1047 36.1% 28.4% 35.5% -6.7 7
1975-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1047 1002 35.5% 28.4% 36.1% +6.7 8
1975-07-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-1 928 956 38.5% 28.4% 33.1% +24.5 8
1975-07-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-6 956 928 33.1% 28.4% 38.5% -24.5 5
1975-07-13 IA Akranes L 0-1 949 1090 23.9% 27.6% 48.5% -5.2 6
1975-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1090 949 48.5% 27.6% 23.9% +5.2 14
1975-07-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1000 966 46.7% 28.1% 25.2% +10.3 12
1975-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 966 1000 25.2% 28.1% 46.7% -10.3 6
1975-07-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 956 931 45.4% 28.2% 26.4% -0.8 7
1975-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 931 956 26.4% 28.2% 45.4% +0.8 6
1975-07-20 IA Akranes D 2-2 953 1095 23.7% 27.6% 48.7% +0.7 9
1975-07-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1095 953 48.7% 27.6% 23.7% -0.7 15
1975-07-21 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 996 944 48.7% 28.0% 23.3% -0.8 8
1975-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 944 996 23.3% 28.0% 48.7% +0.8 7
1975-07-22 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1011 1054 36.3% 28.4% 35.3% -0.0 13
1975-07-22 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1054 1011 35.3% 28.4% 36.3% +0.0 9
1975-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 953 995 36.5% 28.4% 35.1% -6.8 9
1975-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 995 953 35.1% 28.4% 36.5% +6.8 10
1975-07-26 IA Akranes W 1-0 955 1095 24.0% 27.6% 48.4% +9.0 9
1975-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1095 955 48.4% 27.6% 24.0% -9.0 15
1975-07-26 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 932 1011 31.4% 28.3% 40.4% +14.6 8
1975-07-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1011 932 40.4% 28.3% 31.4% -14.6 13
1975-07-27 Keflavik IF L 2-4 945 1054 27.6% 28.0% 44.4% -8.5 7
1975-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1054 945 44.4% 28.0% 27.6% +8.5 11
1975-08-08 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1002 964 47.1% 28.1% 24.8% -8.3 10
1975-08-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 964 1002 24.8% 28.1% 47.1% +8.3 11
1975-08-09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1086 947 58.0% 26.5% 15.5% +13.0 17
1975-08-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 947 1086 15.5% 26.5% 58.0% -13.0 8
1975-08-09 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1062 946 55.8% 27.0% 17.3% -10.2 11
1975-08-09 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 946 1062 17.3% 27.0% 55.8% +10.2 11
1975-08-10 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 936 996 34.0% 28.4% 37.7% -6.1 7
1975-08-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 996 936 37.7% 28.4% 34.0% +6.1 15
1975-08-16 Keflavik IF D 1-1 972 1052 31.2% 28.2% 40.5% +0.4 12
1975-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1052 972 40.5% 28.2% 31.2% -0.3 12
1975-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 934 993 34.0% 28.4% 37.7% -6.4 8
1975-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 993 934 37.7% 28.4% 34.0% +6.4 12
1975-08-17 IA Akranes L 3-6 1002 1099 29.1% 28.1% 42.8% -11.3 15
1975-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 6-3 1099 1002 42.8% 28.1% 29.1% +11.3 19
1975-08-18 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 957 930 45.7% 28.2% 26.1% +5.3 13
1975-08-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 930 957 26.1% 28.2% 45.7% -5.3 7
1975-08-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1052 927 56.6% 26.8% 16.6% -1.9 13
1975-08-23 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 927 1052 16.6% 26.8% 56.6% +1.9 9
1975-08-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 925 972 35.7% 28.4% 35.9% +0.0 8
1975-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 972 925 35.9% 28.4% 35.7% -0.0 13
1975-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 962 991 38.3% 28.4% 33.3% -7.5 13
1975-08-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 991 962 33.3% 28.4% 38.3% +7.5 17
1975-08-25 IA Akranes W 1-0 1000 1110 27.4% 28.0% 44.6% +8.4 14
1975-08-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1110 1000 44.6% 28.0% 27.4% -8.4 19
1975-08-30 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 972 955 44.6% 28.2% 27.2% -15.8 13
1975-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 955 972 27.2% 28.2% 44.6% +15.8 15
1975-08-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 925 929 41.7% 28.4% 29.9% +6.2 10
1975-08-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 929 925 29.9% 28.4% 41.7% -6.2 9
1975-08-31 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 998 1008 40.9% 28.4% 30.7% -7.0 17
1975-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1008 998 30.7% 28.4% 40.9% +7.0 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1975-08-09 17.26% Vikingur Reykjavik 946 1 @ Keflavik IF 1062 0
2 1975-06-02 17.73% Fram Reykjavik 959 1 @ Keflavik IF 1069 0
3 1975-07-26 24.03% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 955 1 IA Akranes 1095 0
4 1975-06-14 24.60% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 929 1 Keflavik IF 1063 0
5 1975-08-08 24.83% FH Hafnarfjordur 964 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1002 1
6 1975-07-01 25.73% Fram Reykjavik 986 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1016 1
7 1975-07-05 26.62% KR Reykjavik 941 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 964 1
8 1975-06-14 26.99% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 962 3 IA Akranes 1076 2
9 1975-08-30 27.17% Vikingur Reykjavik 955 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 972 0
10 1975-08-25 27.41% @ Valur Reykjavik 1000 1 IA Akranes 1110 0
11 1975-08-31 30.67% Valur Reykjavik 1008 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 998 2
12 1975-06-14 31.11% Valur Reykjavik 1001 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 988 0
13 1975-07-26 31.39% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 932 2 Fram Reykjavik 1011 0
14 1975-08-24 33.29% Fram Reykjavik 991 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 962 0
15 1975-07-02 33.31% IA Akranes 1083 2 @ Keflavik IF 1054 1
16 1975-07-04 35.00% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 921 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 973 0
17 1975-07-25 35.06% Valur Reykjavik 995 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 953 1
18 1975-07-10 35.53% Keflavik IF 1047 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1002 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-07-12 24.50 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 928 38.48% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 956 33.11% 28.41%
2 1975-06-08 23.03 @ IA Akranes 7 1052 47.56% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1011 24.38% 28.06%
3 1975-06-14 21.32 Valur Reykjavik 3 1001 31.11% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 988 40.50% 28.39%
4 1975-08-30 15.84 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 955 27.17% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 972 44.57% 28.25%
5 1975-07-26 14.61 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 932 31.39% Fram Reykjavik 0 1011 40.35% 28.26%
6 1975-07-01 14.10 Fram Reykjavik 3 986 25.73% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1016 46.11% 28.16%
7 1975-08-09 12.98 @ IA Akranes 4 1086 58.01% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 947 15.46% 26.53%
8 1975-06-20 11.68 @ KR Reykjavik 2 935 41.96% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 938 29.69% 28.36%
9 1975-08-17 11.27 IA Akranes 6 1099 42.77% @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1002 29.10% 28.13%
10 1975-06-15 10.50 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 975 46.05% KR Reykjavik 0 946 25.78% 28.17%
11 1975-07-14 10.31 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1000 46.68% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 966 25.20% 28.12%
12 1975-08-09 10.19 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 946 17.26% @ Keflavik IF 0 1062 55.75% 26.99%
13 1975-06-02 10.10 Fram Reykjavik 1 959 17.73% @ Keflavik IF 0 1069 55.18% 27.10%
14 1975-07-26 8.96 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 955 24.03% IA Akranes 0 1095 48.35% 27.62%
15 1975-06-14 8.86 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 929 24.60% Keflavik IF 0 1063 47.70% 27.70%
16 1975-07-27 8.53 Keflavik IF 4 1054 44.43% @ KR Reykjavik 2 945 27.57% 28.01%
17 1975-08-25 8.39 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1000 27.41% IA Akranes 0 1110 44.60% 27.99%
18 1975-08-08 8.29 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 964 24.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1002 47.08% 28.09%
19 1975-07-05 8.01 KR Reykjavik 2 941 26.62% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 964 45.16% 28.22%
20 1975-06-14 7.56 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 962 26.99% IA Akranes 2 1076 45.05% 27.95%
21 1975-08-24 7.46 Fram Reykjavik 1 991 33.29% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 962 38.29% 28.41%
22 1975-07-04 7.22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 921 35.00% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 973 36.62% 28.38%
23 1975-07-02 7.03 IA Akranes 2 1083 33.31% @ Keflavik IF 1 1054 38.27% 28.41%
24 1975-08-31 7.02 Valur Reykjavik 3 1008 30.67% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 998 40.95% 28.38%
25 1975-07-25 6.79 Valur Reykjavik 2 995 35.06% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 953 36.53% 28.41%