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1997 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

40 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1979.0

Relegated

Stjarnan

7 pts

Skallagrimur · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

7.67 points above expected

29 points · 21.33 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

10.57 points below expected

7 points · 17.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion 18 12 4 2 40 44 17 +27 33.99 +6.01
2 IA Akranes 18 11 2 5 35 42 24 +18 34.79 +0.21
3 IF Leiftur 18 8 6 4 30 27 17 +10 26.86 +3.14
4 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 29 23 +6 21.33 +7.67
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 27 38 23 +15 31.50 -4.50
6 Keflavik IF 18 7 3 8 24 21 28 -7 26.34 -2.34
7 Grindavik 18 6 4 8 22 21 29 -8 22.69 -0.69
8 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 3 9 21 21 36 -15 20.26 +0.74
9 Skallagrimur Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 19 40 -21 14.45 +0.55
10 Stjarnan Relegated 18 1 4 13 7 14 39 -25 17.57 -10.57

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1640 40 33.99 +6.01 89.5% 15 25 31 34 38 42 52
IA Akranes 1617 35 34.79 +0.21 55.0% 14 26 31 35 38 43 52
KR Reykjavik 1580 27 31.50 -4.50 22.6% 7 23 28 32 35 40 50
IF Leiftur 1542 30 26.86 +3.14 76.0% 4 18 23 27 30 35 46
Fram Reykjavik 1447 29 21.33 +7.67 93.9% 4 13 18 21 25 30 42
Grindavik 1391 22 22.69 -0.69 49.6% 4 14 19 23 26 32 47
Keflavik IF 1383 24 26.34 -2.34 36.6% 8 18 23 26 30 35 45
Valur Reykjavik 1368 21 20.26 +0.74 60.0% 4 12 17 20 24 29 43
Skallagrimur 1281 15 14.45 +0.55 60.5% 0 7 11 14 18 23 33
Stjarnan 1256 7 17.57 -10.57 1.7% 2 9 14 17 21 26 37

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI SKA STJ VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.64
0-2-0
1.48
1-1-0
1.89
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.86
2-0-0
3.62
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.04
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.83
 —
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
2.28
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
3.72
2-0-0
3.40
1-1-0
2.81
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.81
 —
0-0-2
3.21
0-1-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.63
2-0-0
4.26
1-0-1
4.45
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
2.32
 —
1-0-1
3.77
1-0-1
3.30
1-1-0
3.66
2-0-0
4.65
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.18
IF Leiftur
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.26
1-1-0
1.92
1-0-1
1.77
 —
0-2-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.94
0-1-1
4.10
1-1-0
2.97
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.88
0-1-1
3.72
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.24
0-2-0
3.38
 —
0-1-1
3.44
2-0-0
4.38
1-1-0
4.15
1-0-1
4.10
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-1
3.20
0-1-1
1.87
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
2.46
1-1-0
2.10
 —
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.52
Skallagrimur
0-0-2
1.92
1-1-0
1.82
0-0-2
0.98
0-0-2
0.96
1-0-1
1.62
0-0-2
1.20
1-0-1
1.47
 —
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.13
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-2
2.14
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-1
1.33
1-1-0
1.46
0-1-1
1.41
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
3.13
 —
0-0-2
2.51
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.50
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
1.14
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.47
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.40
2-0-0
3.03
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +8.2
Allowed 0.79 -10.1
Differential 0.90 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%6.11%5.00%3.89%2.22%1.67%24.44%
16.11%14.44%6.11%5.56%0.56%1.11%33.89%
25.00%6.11%2.22%3.89%1.67%1.11%20.00%
33.89%5.56%3.89%———13.33%
42.22%0.56%1.67%———4.44%
5+1.67%1.11%1.11%———3.89%
Total24.44%33.89%20.00%13.33%4.44%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.15
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
116.67%22.22%11.11%———50.00%
211.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.28 +0.33
SD 0.98 1.13 1.24
CV 0.61 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.61 -0.44
SD 0.86 1.29 1.69
CV 0.73 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%————5.56%
311.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.33 +1.00
SD 1.88 1.24 2.50
CV 0.81 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.94 +1.50
SD 1.42 0.87 1.86
CV 0.58 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.94 +0.56
SD 1.47 1.00 1.89
CV 0.98 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
1—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%38.89%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.28 +0.83
SD 1.91 1.18 2.18
CV 0.90 0.92 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.56 -0.39
SD 0.86 1.38 1.85
CV 0.73 0.89 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
1—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
2—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.22 -1.17
SD 1.16 1.77 2.18
CV 1.10 0.80 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
1—5.56%16.67%11.11%——33.33%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%27.78%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.17 -1.39
SD 0.81 1.62 1.65
CV 1.04 0.75 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.00 -0.83
SD 1.15 1.71 2.46
CV 0.99 0.86 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 29 21.33 +7.67
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 40 33.99 +6.01
3 IF Leiftur 30 26.86 +3.14
4 Valur Reykjavik 21 20.26 +0.74
5 Skallagrimur 15 14.45 +0.55

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 7 17.57 -10.57
2 KR Reykjavik 27 31.50 -4.50
3 Keflavik IF 24 26.34 -2.34
4 Grindavik 22 22.69 -0.69
5 IA Akranes 35 34.79 +0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 6 May 19 – Jun 18 1 in 88
2 Grindavik 3 Jul 13 – Aug 7 1 in 41
3 Skallagrimur 2 Sep 21 – Sep 27 1 in 15
4 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 22 – Jul 2 1 in 15
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 May 29 – Jun 3 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Aug 7 – Aug 24 1 in 184
2 Skallagrimur 6 May 22 – Jun 29 1 in 23
3 Stjarnan 4 May 22 – Jun 3 1 in 19
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 3 – Jul 1 1 in 16
5 IA Akranes 2 Jul 13 – Jul 16 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 32
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 11 Jun 29 – Sep 21 1 in 14
3 Keflavik IF 7 May 19 – Jul 2 1 in 12
4 Skallagrimur 3 Jul 3 – Jul 17 1 in 8
5 Grindavik 4 Jul 6 – Aug 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 14 May 19 – Aug 23 1 in 56
2 Keflavik IF 8 Aug 7 – Sep 27 1 in 33
3 Skallagrimur 11 May 22 – Aug 6 1 in 12
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 23 – Sep 21 1 in 9
5 IF Leiftur 3 May 29 – Jun 18 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IBV Vestmannaeyjar35.30%28.14%18.01%9.27%5.38%2.34%1.06%0.33%0.16%0.01%
IA Akranes38.96%27.86%17.65%8.64%4.08%1.83%0.61%0.28%0.07%0.02%
IF Leiftur3.77%8.70%14.85%22.27%18.55%13.42%9.80%5.15%2.64%0.85%
Fram Reykjavik0.38%1.40%3.93%8.05%12.87%17.00%18.66%18.05%12.53%7.13%
KR Reykjavik17.29%22.87%24.28%16.07%9.70%5.41%2.82%1.02%0.46%0.08%
Keflavik IF2.94%7.64%12.57%18.33%19.54%16.17%10.44%7.30%3.95%1.12%
Grindavik1.13%2.48%5.40%9.63%14.29%18.19%18.32%15.31%10.45%4.80%
Valur Reykjavik0.20%0.63%2.41%5.23%9.60%14.01%18.51%21.02%17.79%10.60%
Skallagrimur0.01%0.04%0.21%0.54%1.45%3.56%6.70%12.46%24.29%50.74%
Stjarnan0.02%0.24%0.69%1.97%4.54%8.07%13.08%19.08%27.66%24.65%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
46.67%22.22%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
167 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
054.49500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.14 * Some Luck: 4.14 to 6.21 * Lucky: 6.21 to 8.28 * Wild Swing: 8.28 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 * Close: 1.09 to 1.64 * Off: 1.64 to 2.18 * Way Off: 2.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.73 * A Surprise: 0.73 to 1.16 * Several Surprises: 1.16 to 1.6 * Many Surprises: 1.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.94 points
Some Luck
05.1713
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.363
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.91%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.67%
Stjarnan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.50
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
90%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.53
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.145
Well Within Noise
00.1840.5

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 99.91% 0.09%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 99.83% 0.17%
KR Reykjavik 99.46% 0.54%
IF Leiftur 96.51% 3.49%
Keflavik IF 94.93% 5.07%
Grindavik 84.75% 15.25%
Fram Reykjavik 80.34% 19.66%
Valur Reykjavik 71.61% 28.39%
Stjarnan 47.69% 52.31%
Skallagrimur 24.97% 75.03%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1997-05-19 IA Akranes W 3-1 1486 1597 30.5% 23.4% 46.1% +27.5 3
1997-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1597 1486 46.1% 23.4% 30.5% -27.5 0
1997-05-19 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1459 1336 60.0% 22.2% 17.8% +7.6 3
1997-05-19 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1336 1459 17.8% 22.2% 60.0% -7.6 0
1997-05-19 Stjarnan D 0-0 1544 1430 59.0% 22.4% 18.6% -3.8 1
1997-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1430 1544 18.6% 22.4% 59.0% +3.8 1
1997-05-19 IF Leiftur W 3-0 1308 1441 27.8% 23.3% 48.9% +48.4 3
1997-05-19 @ Skallagrimur L 0-3 1441 1308 48.9% 23.3% 27.8% -48.5 0
1997-05-19 Grindavik D 0-0 1461 1443 48.1% 23.3% 28.6% -1.7 1
1997-05-19 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1443 1461 28.6% 23.3% 48.1% +1.7 1
1997-05-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1328 1514 22.1% 22.8% 55.1% +2.7 1
1997-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1514 1328 55.1% 22.8% 22.1% -2.7 4
1997-05-22 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1445 1540 32.6% 23.5% 43.9% +0.9 2
1997-05-22 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1540 1445 43.9% 23.5% 32.6% -0.9 2
1997-05-22 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1570 1392 64.8% 21.4% 13.8% -4.9 1
1997-05-22 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1392 1570 13.8% 21.4% 64.8% +4.9 1
1997-05-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1356 1459 31.6% 23.5% 45.0% -23.5 3
1997-05-22 @ Skallagrimur W 2-0 1459 1356 45.0% 23.5% 31.6% +23.5 4
1997-05-22 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1434 1467 41.2% 23.5% 35.3% -25.1 1
1997-05-22 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1467 1434 35.3% 23.5% 41.2% +25.1 6
1997-05-25 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1565 1331 69.2% 20.3% 10.5% +4.1 4
1997-05-25 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1331 1565 10.5% 20.3% 69.2% -4.1 1
1997-05-25 Stjarnan W 5-0 1511 1409 57.9% 22.5% 19.6% +36.8 7
1997-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1409 1511 19.6% 22.5% 57.9% -36.8 1
1997-05-25 Grindavik W 2-0 1492 1446 51.6% 23.1% 25.2% +19.6 9
1997-05-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1446 1492 25.2% 23.1% 51.6% -19.6 2
1997-05-25 Skallagrimur W 4-0 1539 1333 67.1% 20.9% 12.0% +18.9 5
1997-05-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1333 1539 12.0% 20.9% 67.1% -18.9 3
1997-05-25 IF Leiftur L 0-5 1483 1397 56.1% 22.7% 21.2% -88.3 4
1997-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 5-0 1397 1483 21.2% 22.7% 56.1% +88.3 4
1997-05-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1426 1548 29.2% 23.4% 47.4% -22.1 2
1997-05-29 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1548 1426 47.4% 23.4% 29.2% +22.1 10
1997-05-29 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1485 1327 63.2% 21.7% 15.1% -22.4 4
1997-05-29 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 1327 1485 15.1% 21.7% 63.2% +22.4 4
1997-05-29 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1314 1512 20.8% 22.7% 56.5% -8.8 3
1997-05-29 @ Skallagrimur W 1-0 1512 1314 56.5% 22.7% 20.8% +8.8 12
1997-05-29 IA Akranes L 0-3 1372 1569 20.9% 22.7% 56.4% -24.2 1
1997-05-29 @ Stjarnan W 3-0 1569 1372 56.4% 22.7% 20.9% +24.2 7
1997-05-29 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1394 1558 24.3% 23.1% 52.6% +30.8 7
1997-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1558 1394 52.6% 23.1% 24.3% -30.8 5
1997-06-03 Stjarnan W 1-0 1349 1348 46.0% 23.4% 30.6% +12.2 7
1997-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1348 1349 30.6% 23.4% 46.0% -12.2 1
1997-06-03 Grindavik W 3-1 1593 1404 65.8% 21.2% 13.0% +9.3 10
1997-06-03 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1404 1593 13.0% 21.2% 65.8% -9.3 2
1997-06-03 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1521 1425 57.1% 22.6% 20.2% +16.2 15
1997-06-03 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1425 1521 20.2% 22.6% 57.1% -16.2 7
1997-06-03 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1527 1463 53.7% 23.0% 23.3% -2.7 6
1997-06-03 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1463 1527 23.3% 23.0% 53.7% +2.8 5
1997-06-18 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1395 1361 50.1% 23.2% 26.7% +10.3 5
1997-06-18 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1361 1395 26.7% 23.2% 50.1% -10.3 7
1997-06-18 Stjarnan D 2-2 1466 1335 60.7% 22.2% 17.2% -2.7 6
1997-06-18 @ IF Leiftur D 2-2 1335 1466 17.2% 22.2% 60.7% +2.7 2
1997-06-18 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1524 1537 44.1% 23.5% 32.4% -15.3 6
1997-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1537 1524 32.4% 23.5% 44.1% +15.3 18
1997-06-18 IA Akranes L 0-1 1305 1603 13.1% 21.2% 65.7% -5.7 3
1997-06-18 @ Skallagrimur W 1-0 1603 1305 65.7% 21.2% 13.1% +5.7 13
1997-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1409 1570 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% -36.4 7
1997-06-18 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-0 1570 1409 52.3% 23.1% 24.6% +36.4 13
1997-06-22 Skallagrimur W 1-0 1351 1299 52.3% 23.1% 24.6% +10.2 10
1997-06-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1299 1351 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% -10.2 3
1997-06-22 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1608 1373 69.3% 20.3% 10.4% +4.1 16
1997-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1373 1608 10.4% 20.3% 69.3% -4.1 7
1997-06-22 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1606 1509 57.3% 22.6% 20.1% -19.3 13
1997-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1509 1606 20.1% 22.6% 57.3% +19.3 9
1997-06-22 Grindavik L 0-1 1338 1405 36.4% 23.6% 40.0% -14.0 2
1997-06-22 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1405 1338 40.0% 23.6% 36.4% +14.0 8
1997-06-29 Skallagrimur W 3-1 1587 1289 73.3% 18.9% 7.7% +5.5 16
1997-06-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1289 1587 7.7% 18.9% 73.3% -5.5 3
1997-07-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1369 1361 46.7% 23.4% 29.9% -32.1 7
1997-07-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1361 1369 29.9% 23.4% 46.7% +32.1 13
1997-07-02 Grindavik W 4-1 1463 1419 51.3% 23.2% 25.5% +24.2 9
1997-07-02 @ IF Leiftur L 1-4 1419 1463 25.5% 23.2% 51.3% -24.2 8
1997-07-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1552 1593 40.2% 23.6% 36.2% -0.3 19
1997-07-02 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1593 1552 36.2% 23.6% 40.2% +0.3 17
1997-07-02 IA Akranes W 4-0 1528 1612 34.1% 23.5% 42.4% +56.2 12
1997-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1612 1528 42.4% 23.5% 34.1% -56.2 16
1997-07-03 Stjarnan D 1-1 1284 1324 40.2% 23.6% 36.2% -0.3 4
1997-07-03 @ Skallagrimur D 1-1 1324 1284 36.2% 23.6% 40.2% +0.3 3
1997-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1393 1584 21.5% 22.8% 55.7% +2.8 14
1997-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1584 1393 55.7% 22.8% 21.5% -2.8 13
1997-07-06 Skallagrimur D 1-1 1395 1283 58.8% 22.4% 18.8% -3.3 9
1997-07-06 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1283 1395 18.8% 22.4% 58.8% +3.3 5
1997-07-06 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1556 1552 46.4% 23.4% 30.2% +33.0 19
1997-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1552 1556 30.2% 23.4% 46.4% -33.0 19
1997-07-07 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1324 1336 44.2% 23.5% 32.4% -26.5 3
1997-07-07 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1336 1324 32.4% 23.5% 44.2% +26.5 10
1997-07-13 Keflavik IF W 3-1 1396 1519 29.1% 23.4% 47.6% +28.2 17
1997-07-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1519 1396 47.6% 23.4% 29.1% -28.2 19
1997-07-13 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1391 1363 49.5% 23.3% 27.3% +18.1 12
1997-07-13 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1363 1391 27.3% 23.3% 49.5% -18.1 10
1997-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1589 1593 45.3% 23.4% 31.2% -27.1 19
1997-07-13 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1593 1589 31.2% 23.4% 45.3% +27.1 20
1997-07-13 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1298 1582 14.0% 21.4% 64.6% -11.5 3
1997-07-13 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1582 1298 64.6% 21.4% 14.0% +11.5 16
1997-07-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1620 1424 66.3% 21.1% 12.6% -4.6 21
1997-07-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1424 1620 12.6% 21.1% 66.3% +4.6 18
1997-07-16 IA Akranes W 1-0 1487 1562 35.3% 23.5% 41.1% +15.3 12
1997-07-16 @ IF Leiftur L 0-1 1562 1487 41.1% 23.5% 35.3% -15.3 19
1997-07-16 Grindavik L 0-1 1593 1410 65.3% 21.3% 13.4% -23.1 16
1997-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1410 1593 13.4% 21.3% 65.3% +23.1 15
1997-07-17 Stjarnan W 2-1 1491 1286 67.0% 20.9% 12.1% +5.0 22
1997-07-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1286 1491 12.1% 20.9% 67.0% -5.0 3
1997-07-17 Skallagrimur D 1-1 1345 1287 53.0% 23.0% 23.9% -2.3 11
1997-07-17 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1287 1345 23.9% 23.0% 53.0% +2.3 6
1997-07-23 Skallagrimur W 1-0 1503 1289 67.7% 20.7% 11.6% +5.1 15
1997-07-23 @ IF Leiftur L 0-1 1289 1503 11.6% 20.7% 67.7% -5.1 6
1997-07-30 IF Leiftur W 3-2 1615 1508 58.4% 22.5% 19.1% +7.3 24
1997-07-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1508 1615 19.1% 22.5% 58.4% -7.3 15
1997-08-06 IA Akranes L 1-2 1429 1547 29.7% 23.4% 46.9% -11.2 18
1997-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1547 1429 46.9% 23.4% 29.7% +11.2 22
1997-08-06 KR Reykjavik L 2-6 1284 1570 13.8% 21.4% 64.8% -15.3 6
1997-08-06 @ Skallagrimur W 6-2 1570 1284 64.8% 21.4% 13.8% +15.3 19
1997-08-07 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1433 1496 37.0% 23.6% 39.4% +28.0 18
1997-08-07 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1496 1433 39.4% 23.6% 37.0% -28.0 22
1997-08-07 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1500 1342 63.2% 21.7% 15.1% -4.1 16
1997-08-07 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 1342 1500 15.1% 21.7% 63.2% +4.1 12
1997-08-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1281 1623 10.6% 20.4% 69.0% +5.7 4
1997-08-07 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1623 1281 69.0% 20.4% 10.6% -5.7 25
1997-08-13 IF Leiftur L 0-1 1468 1496 41.9% 23.5% 34.6% -15.6 22
1997-08-13 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1496 1468 34.6% 23.5% 41.9% +15.5 19
1997-08-17 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1418 1512 32.7% 23.5% 43.8% +0.8 19
1997-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1512 1418 43.8% 23.5% 32.7% -0.8 20
1997-08-17 Stjarnan W 6-2 1558 1287 71.7% 19.5% 8.8% +9.8 25
1997-08-17 @ IA Akranes L 2-6 1287 1558 8.8% 19.5% 71.7% -9.8 4
1997-08-17 Grindavik W 2-1 1617 1461 63.0% 21.8% 15.2% +6.2 28
1997-08-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1461 1617 15.2% 21.8% 63.0% -6.3 18
1997-08-17 Skallagrimur L 2-3 1452 1269 65.3% 21.3% 13.4% -20.6 22
1997-08-17 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1269 1452 13.4% 21.3% 65.3% +20.7 9
1997-08-17 Valur Reykjavik W 6-1 1585 1347 69.5% 20.2% 10.3% +16.5 22
1997-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-6 1347 1585 10.3% 20.2% 69.5% -16.5 12
1997-08-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1511 1602 33.2% 23.5% 43.3% +0.8 21
1997-08-23 @ IF Leiftur D 1-1 1602 1511 43.3% 23.5% 33.2% -0.8 23
1997-08-23 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1277 1419 26.8% 23.2% 49.9% -9.8 4
1997-08-23 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1419 1277 49.9% 23.2% 26.8% +9.8 22
1997-08-24 IA Akranes L 0-4 1454 1568 30.2% 23.4% 46.4% -43.1 18
1997-08-24 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1568 1454 46.4% 23.4% 30.2% +43.1 28
1997-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1289 1623 11.0% 20.5% 68.5% -13.2 9
1997-08-24 @ Skallagrimur W 3-0 1623 1289 68.5% 20.5% 11.0% +13.2 31
1997-08-24 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1330 1431 31.8% 23.5% 44.8% +15.5 15
1997-08-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1431 1330 44.8% 23.5% 31.8% -15.5 22
1997-09-01 Skallagrimur W 6-0 1611 1276 75.4% 18.1% 6.5% +14.6 31
1997-09-01 @ IA Akranes L 0-6 1276 1611 6.5% 18.1% 75.4% -14.6 9
1997-09-01 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1416 1601 22.1% 22.9% 55.1% +2.7 23
1997-09-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1601 1416 55.1% 22.9% 22.1% -2.7 24
1997-09-01 IF Leiftur W 2-0 1268 1512 16.8% 22.1% 61.1% +40.9 7
1997-09-01 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1512 1268 61.1% 22.1% 16.8% -40.9 21
1997-09-02 Grindavik D 2-2 1428 1411 48.0% 23.4% 28.6% -1.1 23
1997-09-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1411 1428 28.6% 23.4% 48.0% +1.1 19
1997-09-03 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1636 1346 72.9% 19.1% 8.0% +9.5 34
1997-09-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1346 1636 8.0% 19.1% 72.9% -9.5 15
1997-09-13 Stjarnan W 2-1 1412 1308 58.0% 22.5% 19.4% +7.8 22
1997-09-13 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1308 1412 19.4% 22.5% 58.0% -7.8 7
1997-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1471 1419 52.3% 23.1% 24.6% +27.8 24
1997-09-13 @ IF Leiftur L 0-3 1419 1471 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% -27.8 23
1997-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1598 1646 39.2% 23.6% 37.2% -13.2 24
1997-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1646 1598 37.2% 23.6% 39.2% +13.2 37
1997-09-13 Fram Reykjavik L 2-4 1261 1427 24.1% 23.0% 52.9% -14.6 9
1997-09-13 @ Skallagrimur W 4-2 1427 1261 52.9% 23.0% 24.1% +14.6 26
1997-09-13 IA Akranes W 2-1 1336 1625 13.6% 21.3% 65.1% +21.7 18
1997-09-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1625 1336 65.1% 21.3% 13.6% -21.7 31
1997-09-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1442 1358 55.9% 22.8% 21.3% +16.9 29
1997-09-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1358 1442 21.3% 22.8% 55.9% -16.9 18
1997-09-21 IF Leiftur L 1-2 1420 1499 34.8% 23.5% 41.6% -12.7 22
1997-09-21 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1499 1420 41.6% 23.5% 34.8% +12.7 27
1997-09-21 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1604 1585 48.2% 23.3% 28.5% +16.8 34
1997-09-21 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 1585 1604 28.5% 23.3% 48.2% -16.8 24
1997-09-21 Keflavik IF W 5-1 1659 1391 71.5% 19.6% 8.9% +11.6 40
1997-09-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-5 1391 1659 8.9% 19.6% 71.5% -11.6 23
1997-09-21 Skallagrimur L 1-2 1301 1247 52.5% 23.1% 24.4% -17.8 7
1997-09-21 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1247 1301 24.4% 23.1% 52.5% +17.8 12
1997-09-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1511 1671 24.8% 23.1% 52.1% +30.6 30
1997-09-27 @ IF Leiftur L 1-3 1671 1511 52.1% 23.1% 24.8% -30.6 40
1997-09-27 IA Akranes D 1-1 1379 1620 17.0% 22.1% 60.8% +3.7 24
1997-09-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1620 1379 60.8% 22.1% 17.0% -3.7 35
1997-09-27 Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1568 1459 58.6% 22.4% 18.9% +11.8 27
1997-09-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1459 1568 18.9% 22.4% 58.6% -11.8 29
1997-09-27 Grindavik W 3-2 1265 1408 26.7% 23.2% 50.1% +16.2 15
1997-09-27 @ Skallagrimur L 2-3 1408 1265 50.1% 23.2% 26.7% -16.2 22
1997-09-27 Stjarnan W 3-0 1341 1283 53.0% 23.0% 24.0% +27.2 21
1997-09-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1283 1341 24.0% 23.0% 53.0% -27.2 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1997-07-16 13.38% Grindavik 1410 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1593 0
2 1997-08-17 13.38% Skallagrimur 1269 3 @ Keflavik IF 1452 2
3 1997-09-13 13.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 1336 2 IA Akranes 1625 1
4 1997-05-29 15.06% Fram Reykjavik 1327 1 @ IF Leiftur 1485 0
5 1997-09-01 16.81% @ Stjarnan 1268 2 IF Leiftur 1512 0
6 1997-06-22 20.06% KR Reykjavik 1509 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1606 1
7 1997-05-25 21.17% IF Leiftur 1397 5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1483 0
8 1997-05-29 24.35% @ Valur Reykjavik 1394 3 KR Reykjavik 1558 1
9 1997-09-21 24.43% Skallagrimur 1247 2 @ Stjarnan 1301 1
10 1997-09-27 24.79% @ IF Leiftur 1511 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1671 1
11 1997-09-27 26.65% @ Skallagrimur 1265 3 Grindavik 1408 2
12 1997-05-19 27.82% @ Skallagrimur 1308 3 IF Leiftur 1441 0
13 1997-07-13 29.07% @ Fram Reykjavik 1396 3 Keflavik IF 1519 1
14 1997-07-01 29.86% Fram Reykjavik 1361 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1369 0
15 1997-05-19 30.52% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1486 3 IA Akranes 1597 1
16 1997-07-13 31.25% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1593 3 @ IA Akranes 1589 1
17 1997-08-24 31.77% @ Valur Reykjavik 1330 2 Keflavik IF 1431 1
18 1997-07-07 32.35% Valur Reykjavik 1336 3 @ Stjarnan 1324 1
19 1997-06-18 32.41% Keflavik IF 1537 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1524 1
20 1997-07-02 34.06% @ KR Reykjavik 1528 4 IA Akranes 1612 0
21 1997-08-13 34.58% IF Leiftur 1496 1 @ Keflavik IF 1468 0
22 1997-05-22 35.26% Keflavik IF 1467 3 @ Stjarnan 1434 1
23 1997-07-16 35.34% @ IF Leiftur 1487 1 IA Akranes 1562 0
24 1997-08-07 37.01% @ Grindavik 1433 2 Keflavik IF 1496 0
25 1997-09-13 37.23% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1646 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1598 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-05-25 88.26 IF Leiftur 5 1397 21.17% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1483 56.09% 22.74%
2 1997-07-02 56.21 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1528 34.06% IA Akranes 0 1612 42.41% 23.53%
3 1997-05-19 48.45 @ Skallagrimur 3 1308 27.82% IF Leiftur 0 1441 48.88% 23.30%
4 1997-08-24 43.10 IA Akranes 4 1568 46.36% @ Grindavik 0 1454 30.23% 23.42%
5 1997-09-01 40.89 @ Stjarnan 2 1268 16.81% IF Leiftur 0 1512 61.11% 22.08%
6 1997-05-25 36.82 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1511 57.87% Stjarnan 0 1409 19.59% 22.54%
7 1997-06-18 36.42 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1570 52.28% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1409 24.63% 23.09%
8 1997-07-06 32.99 @ IA Akranes 3 1556 46.36% Keflavik IF 0 1552 30.22% 23.42%
9 1997-07-01 32.10 Fram Reykjavik 2 1361 29.86% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1369 46.74% 23.40%
10 1997-05-29 30.82 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1394 24.35% KR Reykjavik 1 1558 52.59% 23.06%
11 1997-09-27 30.57 @ IF Leiftur 3 1511 24.79% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1671 52.11% 23.10%
12 1997-07-13 28.22 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1396 29.07% Keflavik IF 1 1519 47.57% 23.37%
13 1997-08-07 27.97 @ Grindavik 2 1433 37.01% Keflavik IF 0 1496 39.43% 23.56%
14 1997-09-13 27.84 @ IF Leiftur 3 1471 52.33% Keflavik IF 0 1419 24.59% 23.08%
15 1997-05-19 27.45 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1486 30.52% IA Akranes 1 1597 46.05% 23.43%
16 1997-09-27 27.25 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1341 53.00% Stjarnan 0 1283 23.97% 23.03%
17 1997-07-13 27.08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1593 31.25% @ IA Akranes 1 1589 45.29% 23.45%
18 1997-07-07 26.52 Valur Reykjavik 3 1336 32.35% @ Stjarnan 1 1324 44.17% 23.49%
19 1997-05-22 25.07 Keflavik IF 3 1467 35.26% @ Stjarnan 1 1434 41.20% 23.55%
20 1997-05-29 24.21 IA Akranes 3 1569 56.39% @ Stjarnan 0 1372 20.90% 22.71%
21 1997-07-02 24.20 @ IF Leiftur 4 1463 51.35% Grindavik 1 1419 25.49% 23.15%
22 1997-05-22 23.52 Valur Reykjavik 2 1459 44.97% @ Skallagrimur 0 1356 31.56% 23.46%
23 1997-07-16 23.09 Grindavik 1 1410 13.38% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1593 65.34% 21.29%
24 1997-05-29 22.39 Fram Reykjavik 1 1327 15.06% @ IF Leiftur 0 1485 63.22% 21.72%
25 1997-05-29 22.09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1548 47.43% @ Grindavik 0 1426 29.20% 23.37%