Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1997
‹ ›

1997 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

40 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1979.0

Relegated

Stjarnan

7 pts

Skallagrimur · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

7.25 points above expected

29 points · 21.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stjarnan

10.79 points below expected

7 points · 17.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion 18 12 4 2 40 44 17 +27 33.84 +6.16
2 IA Akranes 18 11 2 5 35 42 24 +18 35.23 -0.23
3 IF Leiftur 18 8 6 4 30 27 17 +10 26.56 +3.44
4 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 29 23 +6 21.75 +7.25
5 KR Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 27 38 23 +15 31.13 -4.13
6 Keflavik IF 18 7 3 8 24 21 28 -7 26.08 -2.08
7 Grindavik 18 6 4 8 22 21 29 -8 22.81 -0.81
8 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 3 9 21 21 36 -15 21.17 -0.17
9 Skallagrimur Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 19 40 -21 13.84 +1.16
10 Stjarnan Relegated 18 1 4 13 7 14 39 -25 17.79 -10.79

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 29 21.75 +7.25
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 40 33.84 +6.16
3 IF Leiftur 30 26.56 +3.44
4 Skallagrimur 15 13.84 +1.16
5 Valur Reykjavik 21 21.17 -0.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 7 17.79 -10.79
2 KR Reykjavik 27 31.13 -4.13
3 Keflavik IF 24 26.08 -2.08
4 Grindavik 22 22.81 -0.81
5 IA Akranes 35 35.23 -0.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 6 May 19 – Jun 18 1 in 87
2 Grindavik 3 Jul 13 – Aug 7 1 in 41
3 Skallagrimur 2 Sep 21 – Sep 27 1 in 16
4 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 22 – Jul 2 1 in 15
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 May 29 – Jun 3 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Aug 7 – Aug 24 1 in 187
2 Skallagrimur 6 May 22 – Jun 29 1 in 22
3 Stjarnan 4 May 22 – Jun 3 1 in 19
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 3 – Jul 1 1 in 16
5 IA Akranes 2 Jul 13 – Jul 16 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 22 – Jul 16 1 in 32
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 11 Jun 29 – Sep 21 1 in 14
3 Keflavik IF 7 May 19 – Jul 2 1 in 12
4 Skallagrimur 3 Jul 3 – Jul 17 1 in 8
5 Grindavik 4 Jul 6 – Aug 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 14 May 19 – Aug 23 1 in 57
2 Keflavik IF 8 Aug 7 – Sep 27 1 in 34
3 Skallagrimur 11 May 22 – Aug 6 1 in 12
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 23 – Sep 21 1 in 9
5 IF Leiftur 3 May 29 – Jun 18 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1639 40 +17 12 10.1 +1.9
IA Akranes 1615 35 +49 10 10.0 +0.0
IF Leiftur 1540 30 +31 10 7.5 +2.5
Fram Reykjavik 1445 29 +28 10 7.9 +2.1
KR Reykjavik 1579 27 -22 5 7.9 -2.9
Keflavik IF 1381 24 -49 2 4.6 -2.6
Grindavik 1390 22 -63 4 7.2 -3.2
Valur Reykjavik 1366 21 +38 9 4.9 +4.1
Skallagrimur 1277 15 -8 6 3.8 +2.2
Stjarnan 1254 7 -22 3 5.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI SKA STJ VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.64
0-2-0
1.48
1-1-0
1.89
0-1-1
1.66
1-0-1
1.86
2-0-0
3.64
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.03
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.83
 —
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
2.28
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
3.74
2-0-0
3.40
1-1-0
2.81
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.81
 —
0-0-2
3.21
0-1-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
4.26
1-0-1
4.45
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
4.08
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
2.32
 —
1-0-1
3.77
1-0-1
3.30
1-1-0
3.66
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.18
IF Leiftur
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
1.92
1-0-1
1.77
 —
0-2-0
2.16
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.96
0-1-1
4.09
1-1-0
2.97
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.88
0-1-1
3.73
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.24
0-2-0
3.38
 —
0-1-1
3.44
2-0-0
4.40
1-1-0
4.15
1-0-1
4.10
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.20
0-1-1
1.87
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
2.46
1-1-0
2.10
 —
1-0-1
4.11
2-0-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.52
Skallagrimur
0-0-2
1.90
1-1-0
1.80
0-0-2
0.97
0-0-2
0.95
1-0-1
1.60
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
1.45
 —
1-1-0
2.38
0-1-1
2.10
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-2
2.14
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-1
1.33
1-1-0
1.47
0-1-1
1.41
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
3.15
 —
0-0-2
2.51
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.50
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
1.14
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.47
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.02
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +8.2
Allowed 0.79 -10.1
Differential 0.90 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%6.11%5.00%3.89%2.22%1.67%24.44%
16.11%14.44%6.11%5.56%0.56%1.11%33.89%
25.00%6.11%2.22%3.89%1.67%1.11%20.00%
33.89%5.56%3.89%———13.33%
42.22%0.56%1.67%———4.44%
5+1.67%1.11%1.11%———3.89%
Total24.44%33.89%20.00%13.33%4.44%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.15
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
116.67%22.22%11.11%———50.00%
211.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.28 +0.33
SD 0.98 1.13 1.24
CV 0.61 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.61 -0.44
SD 0.86 1.29 1.69
CV 0.73 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%————5.56%
311.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.33 +1.00
SD 1.88 1.24 2.50
CV 0.81 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.94 +1.50
SD 1.42 0.87 1.86
CV 0.58 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.94 +0.56
SD 1.47 1.00 1.89
CV 0.98 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
1—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%38.89%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.28 +0.83
SD 1.91 1.18 2.18
CV 0.90 0.92 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.56 -0.39
SD 0.86 1.38 1.85
CV 0.73 0.89 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
1—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
2—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.22 -1.17
SD 1.16 1.77 2.18
CV 1.10 0.80 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
1—5.56%16.67%11.11%——33.33%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%27.78%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.17 -1.39
SD 0.81 1.62 1.65
CV 1.04 0.75 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.00 -0.83
SD 1.15 1.71 2.46
CV 0.99 0.86 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1639 40 33.84 +6.16 94.0% 19 27 30 34 36 41 48
IA Akranes 1615 35 35.23 -0.23 56.0% 23 26 32 35 39 43 48
KR Reykjavik 1579 27 31.13 -4.13 25.0% 15 22 27 31 35 40 45
IF Leiftur 1540 30 26.56 +3.44 78.0% 15 18 23 26 30 34 37
Fram Reykjavik 1445 29 21.75 +7.25 90.0% 11 13 18 21 25 31 37
Grindavik 1390 22 22.81 -0.81 46.0% 13 15 19 23 26 30 35
Keflavik IF 1381 24 26.08 -2.08 39.0% 14 18 22 26 30 35 40
Valur Reykjavik 1366 21 21.17 -0.17 51.0% 13 14 18 21 25 28 34
Skallagrimur 1277 15 13.84 +1.16 65.0% 0 6 11 14 17 22 27
Stjarnan 1254 7 17.79 -10.79 1.0% 5 9 14 18 22 26 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
46.67%22.22%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
054.49500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Comfortable
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.07 * Some Luck: 4.07 to 6.1 * Lucky: 6.1 to 8.14 * Wild Swing: 8.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.08 * Close: 1.08 to 1.62 * Off: 1.62 to 2.16 * Way Off: 2.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.65 * A Surprise: 0.65 to 1.04 * Several Surprises: 1.04 to 1.43 * Many Surprises: 1.43 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.92 points
Some Luck
05.0813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.353
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Stjarnan
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 137.92
1.68
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
76%
Wide Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
90%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Few
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.86
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.53
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.134
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IBV Vestmannaeyjar29.00%38.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%———
IA Akranes43.00%24.00%21.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%———
IF Leiftur4.00%8.00%11.00%25.00%16.00%14.00%11.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%
Fram Reykjavik1.00%2.00%1.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%18.00%20.00%15.00%5.00%
KR Reykjavik20.00%17.00%24.00%16.00%9.00%10.00%2.00%—2.00%—
Keflavik IF3.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%18.00%17.00%13.00%11.00%3.00%—
Grindavik—1.00%9.00%12.00%14.00%17.00%16.00%18.00%10.00%3.00%
Valur Reykjavik——4.00%4.00%11.00%15.00%22.00%21.00%15.00%8.00%
Skallagrimur———1.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%9.00%28.00%55.00%
Stjarnan——1.00%1.00%6.00%12.00%14.00%14.00%24.00%28.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 100% —
KR Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Keflavik IF 97.00% 3.00%
IF Leiftur 96.00% 4.00%
Grindavik 87.00% 13.00%
Fram Reykjavik 80.00% 20.00%
Valur Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Stjarnan 48.00% 52.00%
Skallagrimur 17.00% 83.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1997-05-19 IA Akranes W 3-159.4 1485 1596 30.51% 23.43% 46.06%-0.34 +27.5 3
1997-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-359.4 1596 1485 46.06% 23.43% 30.51%+0.34 -27.5 0
1997-05-19 Fram Reykjavik W 1-038.5 1458 1334 60.06% 22.24% 17.70%+1.07 +7.6 3
1997-05-19 @ Keflavik IF L 0-138.5 1334 1458 17.70% 22.24% 60.06%-1.07 -7.6 0
1997-05-19 Stjarnan D 0-058.0 1543 1429 59.04% 22.39% 18.58%+1.01 -3.8 1
1997-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-058.0 1429 1543 18.58% 22.39% 59.04%-1.01 +3.8 1
1997-05-19 IF Leiftur W 3-042.3 1301 1439 27.17% 23.26% 49.56%-0.50 +49.0 3
1997-05-19 @ Skallagrimur L 0-342.3 1439 1301 49.56% 23.26% 27.17%+0.50 -49.0 0
1997-05-19 Grindavik D 0-055.3 1460 1442 48.12% 23.34% 28.54%+0.43 -1.7 1
1997-05-19 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-055.3 1442 1460 28.54% 23.34% 48.12%-0.43 +1.7 1
1997-05-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-157.7 1327 1513 22.00% 22.84% 55.16%-0.78 +2.7 1
1997-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-157.7 1513 1327 55.16% 22.84% 22.00%+0.78 -2.7 4
1997-05-22 KR Reykjavik D 1-162.2 1444 1539 32.57% 23.49% 43.94%-0.24 +0.9 2
1997-05-22 @ Grindavik D 1-162.2 1539 1444 43.94% 23.49% 32.57%+0.24 -0.9 2
1997-05-22 IF Leiftur D 0-057.9 1569 1390 64.92% 21.38% 13.70%+1.39 -4.9 1
1997-05-22 @ IA Akranes D 0-057.9 1390 1569 13.70% 21.38% 64.92%-1.39 +4.9 1
1997-05-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-240.2 1350 1458 30.89% 23.44% 45.66%-0.32 -23.1 3
1997-05-22 @ Skallagrimur W 2-040.2 1458 1350 45.66% 23.44% 30.89%+0.32 +23.1 4
1997-05-22 Keflavik IF L 1-351.4 1432 1466 41.18% 23.55% 35.27%+0.12 -25.1 1
1997-05-22 @ Stjarnan W 3-151.4 1466 1432 35.27% 23.55% 41.18%-0.12 +25.1 6
1997-05-25 Fram Reykjavik W 3-248.7 1564 1329 69.21% 20.31% 10.48%+1.73 +4.1 4
1997-05-25 @ IA Akranes L 2-348.7 1329 1564 10.48% 20.31% 69.21%-1.73 -4.1 1
1997-05-25 Stjarnan W 5-037.1 1510 1407 57.88% 22.54% 19.59%+0.94 +36.8 7
1997-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-537.1 1407 1510 19.59% 22.54% 57.88%-0.94 -36.8 1
1997-05-25 Grindavik W 2-042.2 1491 1444 51.68% 23.13% 25.19%+0.60 +19.6 9
1997-05-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-242.2 1444 1491 25.19% 23.13% 51.68%-0.60 -19.6 2
1997-05-25 Skallagrimur W 4-032.3 1538 1327 67.50% 20.78% 11.73%+1.59 +18.5 5
1997-05-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-432.3 1327 1538 11.73% 20.78% 67.50%-1.59 -18.5 3
1997-05-25 IF Leiftur L 0-546.8 1481 1395 56.14% 22.74% 21.12%+0.84 -88.3 4
1997-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik W 5-046.8 1395 1481 21.12% 22.74% 56.14%-0.84 +88.3 4
1997-05-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-244.7 1425 1547 29.17% 23.37% 47.46%-0.40 -22.1 2
1997-05-29 @ Grindavik W 2-044.7 1547 1425 47.46% 23.37% 29.17%+0.40 +22.1 10
1997-05-29 Fram Reykjavik L 0-152.3 1483 1325 63.20% 21.72% 15.08%+1.27 -22.4 4
1997-05-29 @ IF Leiftur W 1-052.3 1325 1483 15.08% 21.72% 63.20%-1.27 +22.4 4
1997-05-29 Keflavik IF L 0-140.0 1308 1511 20.42% 22.65% 56.93%-0.88 -8.7 3
1997-05-29 @ Skallagrimur W 1-040.0 1511 1308 56.93% 22.65% 20.42%+0.88 +8.7 12
1997-05-29 IA Akranes L 0-338.8 1371 1568 20.89% 22.71% 56.40%-0.85 -24.2 1
1997-05-29 @ Stjarnan W 3-038.8 1568 1371 56.40% 22.71% 20.89%+0.85 +24.2 7
1997-05-29 KR Reykjavik W 3-156.4 1393 1556 24.33% 23.06% 52.61%-0.65 +30.8 7
1997-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-356.4 1556 1393 52.61% 23.06% 24.33%+0.65 -30.8 5
1997-06-03 Stjarnan W 1-041.1 1348 1346 45.93% 23.43% 30.64%+0.33 +12.2 7
1997-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-141.1 1346 1348 30.64% 23.43% 45.93%-0.33 -12.2 1
1997-06-03 Grindavik W 3-145.6 1592 1403 65.81% 21.18% 13.01%+1.46 +9.3 10
1997-06-03 @ IA Akranes L 1-345.6 1403 1592 13.01% 21.18% 65.81%-1.46 -9.3 2
1997-06-03 Valur Reykjavik W 2-040.8 1519 1424 57.18% 22.62% 20.20%+0.90 +16.2 15
1997-06-03 @ Keflavik IF L 0-240.8 1424 1519 20.20% 22.62% 57.18%-0.90 -16.2 7
1997-06-03 IF Leiftur D 0-058.4 1526 1461 53.75% 22.97% 23.28%+0.71 -2.8 6
1997-06-03 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-058.4 1461 1526 23.28% 22.97% 53.75%-0.71 +2.8 5
1997-06-18 Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.8 1393 1360 50.09% 23.23% 26.67%+0.53 +10.2 5
1997-06-18 @ Grindavik L 1-245.8 1360 1393 26.67% 23.23% 50.09%-0.53 -10.2 7
1997-06-18 Stjarnan D 2-262.4 1464 1334 60.57% 22.17% 17.26%+1.10 -2.7 6
1997-06-18 @ IF Leiftur D 2-262.4 1334 1464 17.26% 22.17% 60.57%-1.10 +2.7 2
1997-06-18 Keflavik IF L 1-260.5 1523 1536 44.07% 23.49% 32.44%+0.25 -15.3 6
1997-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-160.5 1536 1523 32.44% 23.49% 44.07%-0.25 +15.3 18
1997-06-18 IA Akranes L 0-139.6 1300 1602 12.80% 21.12% 66.08%-1.48 -5.6 3
1997-06-18 @ Skallagrimur W 1-039.6 1602 1300 66.08% 21.12% 12.80%+1.48 +5.6 13
1997-06-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-440.6 1407 1569 24.58% 23.08% 52.33%-0.64 -36.4 7
1997-06-18 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-040.6 1569 1407 52.33% 23.08% 24.58%+0.64 +36.4 13
1997-06-22 Skallagrimur W 1-038.5 1349 1294 52.70% 23.05% 24.25%+0.66 +10.0 10
1997-06-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-138.5 1294 1349 24.25% 23.05% 52.70%-0.66 -10.0 3
1997-06-22 Valur Reykjavik W 3-251.7 1607 1371 69.31% 20.28% 10.41%+1.73 +4.1 16
1997-06-22 @ IA Akranes L 2-351.7 1371 1607 10.41% 20.28% 69.31%-1.73 -4.1 7
1997-06-22 KR Reykjavik L 1-266.1 1605 1508 57.37% 22.60% 20.03%+0.91 -19.3 13
1997-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-166.1 1508 1605 20.03% 22.60% 57.37%-0.91 +19.3 9
1997-06-22 Grindavik L 0-143.5 1337 1404 36.47% 23.56% 39.97%-0.07 -14.0 2
1997-06-22 @ Stjarnan W 1-043.5 1404 1337 39.97% 23.56% 36.47%+0.07 +14.0 8
1997-06-29 Skallagrimur W 3-139.0 1586 1284 73.56% 18.86% 7.59%+2.13 +5.4 16
1997-06-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-339.0 1284 1586 7.59% 18.86% 73.56%-2.13 -5.4 3
1997-07-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-243.4 1367 1360 46.77% 23.40% 29.83%+0.37 -32.1 7
1997-07-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-043.4 1360 1367 29.83% 23.40% 46.77%-0.37 +32.1 13
1997-07-02 Grindavik W 4-143.5 1461 1418 51.29% 23.16% 25.56%+0.58 +24.2 9
1997-07-02 @ IF Leiftur L 1-443.5 1418 1461 25.56% 23.16% 51.29%-0.58 -24.2 8
1997-07-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-167.7 1551 1591 40.23% 23.56% 36.21%+0.08 -0.3 19
1997-07-02 @ Keflavik IF D 1-167.7 1591 1551 36.21% 23.56% 40.23%-0.08 +0.3 17
1997-07-02 IA Akranes W 4-051.8 1527 1611 34.03% 23.53% 42.45%-0.18 +56.2 12
1997-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-451.8 1611 1527 42.45% 23.53% 34.03%+0.18 -56.2 16
1997-07-03 Stjarnan D 1-153.8 1279 1323 39.67% 23.56% 36.77%+0.06 -0.2 4
1997-07-03 @ Skallagrimur D 1-153.8 1323 1279 36.77% 23.56% 39.67%-0.06 +0.2 3
1997-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-162.1 1392 1583 21.47% 22.78% 55.76%-0.82 +2.8 14
1997-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-162.1 1583 1392 55.76% 22.78% 21.47%+0.82 -2.8 13
1997-07-06 Skallagrimur D 1-154.8 1393 1278 59.15% 22.37% 18.48%+1.01 -3.4 9
1997-07-06 @ Grindavik D 1-154.8 1278 1393 18.48% 22.37% 59.15%-1.01 +3.4 5
1997-07-06 Keflavik IF W 3-047.8 1555 1551 46.36% 23.42% 30.22%+0.35 +33.0 19
1997-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-347.8 1551 1555 30.22% 23.42% 46.36%-0.35 -33.0 19
1997-07-07 Valur Reykjavik L 1-347.3 1323 1335 44.20% 23.49% 32.31%+0.26 -26.5 3
1997-07-07 @ Stjarnan W 3-147.3 1335 1323 32.31% 23.49% 44.20%-0.26 +26.5 10
1997-07-13 Keflavik IF W 3-153.7 1394 1518 29.01% 23.36% 47.62%-0.41 +28.2 17
1997-07-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-353.7 1518 1394 47.62% 23.36% 29.01%+0.41 -28.2 19
1997-07-13 Valur Reykjavik W 3-143.4 1390 1361 49.46% 23.27% 27.27%+0.50 +18.1 12
1997-07-13 @ Grindavik L 1-343.4 1361 1390 27.27% 23.27% 49.46%-0.50 -18.1 10
1997-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-362.1 1588 1592 45.30% 23.45% 31.24%+0.30 -27.1 19
1997-07-13 @ IA Akranes W 3-162.1 1592 1588 31.24% 23.45% 45.30%-0.30 +27.1 20
1997-07-13 KR Reykjavik L 0-236.3 1297 1580 13.96% 21.45% 64.59%-1.37 -11.5 3
1997-07-13 @ Stjarnan W 2-036.3 1580 1297 64.59% 21.45% 13.96%+1.37 +11.5 16
1997-07-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-165.1 1619 1423 66.32% 21.06% 12.61%+1.49 -4.6 21
1997-07-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-165.1 1423 1619 12.61% 21.06% 66.32%-1.49 +4.6 18
1997-07-16 IA Akranes W 1-054.1 1485 1561 35.25% 23.55% 41.20%-0.13 +15.3 12
1997-07-16 @ IF Leiftur L 0-154.1 1561 1485 41.20% 23.55% 35.25%+0.13 -15.4 19
1997-07-16 Grindavik L 0-159.0 1592 1408 65.34% 21.29% 13.37%+1.42 -23.1 16
1997-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-059.0 1408 1592 13.37% 21.29% 65.34%-1.42 +23.1 15
1997-07-17 Stjarnan W 2-141.1 1489 1285 66.96% 20.91% 12.13%+1.54 +5.0 22
1997-07-17 @ Keflavik IF L 1-241.1 1285 1489 12.13% 20.91% 66.96%-1.54 -5.0 3
1997-07-17 Skallagrimur D 1-154.1 1343 1282 53.42% 23.00% 23.59%+0.69 -2.4 11
1997-07-17 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-154.1 1282 1343 23.59% 23.00% 53.42%-0.69 +2.4 6
1997-07-23 Skallagrimur W 1-036.0 1501 1284 67.90% 20.67% 11.43%+1.62 +5.0 15
1997-07-23 @ IF Leiftur L 0-136.0 1284 1501 11.43% 20.67% 67.90%-1.62 -5.0 6
1997-07-30 IF Leiftur W 3-260.0 1614 1506 58.47% 22.46% 19.07%+0.97 +7.3 24
1997-07-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-360.0 1506 1614 19.07% 22.46% 58.47%-0.97 -7.3 15
1997-08-06 IA Akranes L 1-253.0 1427 1546 29.62% 23.39% 46.99%-0.38 -11.2 18
1997-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-153.0 1546 1427 46.99% 23.39% 29.62%+0.38 +11.2 22
1997-08-06 KR Reykjavik L 2-638.8 1279 1569 13.57% 21.34% 65.08%-1.40 -15.0 6
1997-08-06 @ Skallagrimur W 6-238.8 1569 1279 65.08% 21.34% 13.57%+1.40 +15.0 19
1997-08-07 Keflavik IF W 2-046.2 1431 1494 36.99% 23.56% 39.45%-0.05 +28.0 18
1997-08-07 @ Grindavik L 0-246.2 1494 1431 39.45% 23.56% 36.99%+0.05 -28.0 22
1997-08-07 Valur Reykjavik D 1-158.0 1498 1341 63.13% 21.73% 15.14%+1.27 -4.1 16
1997-08-07 @ IF Leiftur D 1-158.0 1341 1498 15.14% 21.73% 63.13%-1.27 +4.1 12
1997-08-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-056.2 1280 1621 10.60% 20.36% 69.04%-1.71 +5.7 4
1997-08-07 @ Stjarnan D 0-056.2 1621 1280 69.04% 20.36% 10.60%+1.71 -5.7 25
1997-08-13 IF Leiftur L 0-151.2 1466 1494 41.96% 23.53% 34.50%+0.16 -15.6 22
1997-08-13 @ Keflavik IF W 1-051.2 1494 1466 34.50% 23.53% 41.96%-0.16 +15.6 19
1997-08-17 IF Leiftur D 1-160.2 1416 1510 32.76% 23.50% 43.74%-0.24 +0.8 19
1997-08-17 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-160.2 1510 1416 43.74% 23.50% 32.76%+0.24 -0.8 20
1997-08-17 Stjarnan W 6-236.7 1557 1286 71.65% 19.54% 8.80%+1.94 +9.8 25
1997-08-17 @ IA Akranes L 2-636.7 1286 1557 8.80% 19.54% 71.65%-1.94 -9.8 4
1997-08-17 Grindavik W 2-151.9 1616 1459 63.03% 21.75% 15.22%+1.26 +6.2 28
1997-08-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-251.9 1459 1616 15.22% 21.75% 63.03%-1.26 -6.2 18
1997-08-17 Skallagrimur L 2-361.5 1451 1264 65.58% 21.23% 13.18%+1.44 -20.7 22
1997-08-17 @ Keflavik IF W 3-261.5 1264 1451 13.18% 21.23% 65.58%-1.44 +20.7 9
1997-08-17 Valur Reykjavik W 6-137.1 1584 1345 69.49% 20.23% 10.28%+1.75 +16.5 22
1997-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-637.1 1345 1584 10.28% 20.23% 69.49%-1.75 -16.5 12
1997-08-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-166.7 1509 1600 33.13% 23.51% 43.36%-0.22 +0.8 21
1997-08-23 @ IF Leiftur D 1-166.7 1600 1509 43.36% 23.51% 33.13%+0.22 -0.8 23
1997-08-23 Fram Reykjavik L 2-350.2 1276 1417 26.88% 23.25% 49.88%-0.52 -9.8 4
1997-08-23 @ Stjarnan W 3-250.2 1417 1276 49.88% 23.25% 26.88%+0.52 +9.8 22
1997-08-24 IA Akranes L 0-444.0 1453 1566 30.21% 23.42% 46.38%-0.35 -43.1 18
1997-08-24 @ Grindavik W 4-044.0 1566 1453 46.38% 23.42% 30.21%+0.35 +43.1 28
1997-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-334.0 1285 1622 10.82% 20.44% 68.74%-1.69 -13.0 9
1997-08-24 @ Skallagrimur W 3-034.0 1622 1285 68.74% 20.44% 10.82%+1.69 +13.0 31
1997-08-24 Keflavik IF W 2-151.4 1329 1430 31.75% 23.47% 44.78%-0.28 +15.5 15
1997-08-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-251.4 1430 1329 44.78% 23.47% 31.75%+0.28 -15.5 22
1997-09-01 Skallagrimur W 6-031.2 1610 1272 75.60% 18.02% 6.38%+2.34 +14.4 31
1997-09-01 @ IA Akranes L 0-631.2 1272 1610 6.38% 18.02% 75.60%-2.34 -14.4 9
1997-09-01 KR Reykjavik D 1-163.6 1415 1599 22.11% 22.85% 55.04%-0.78 +2.7 23
1997-09-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-163.6 1599 1415 55.04% 22.85% 22.11%+0.78 -2.7 24
1997-09-01 IF Leiftur W 2-048.1 1266 1510 16.85% 22.09% 61.05%-1.13 +40.8 7
1997-09-01 @ Stjarnan L 0-248.1 1510 1266 61.05% 22.09% 16.85%+1.13 -40.9 21
1997-09-02 Grindavik D 2-263.0 1427 1410 47.98% 23.35% 28.68%+0.43 -1.1 23
1997-09-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-263.0 1410 1427 28.68% 23.35% 47.98%-0.43 +1.1 19
1997-09-03 Valur Reykjavik W 3-035.3 1635 1344 72.90% 19.10% 8.00%+2.06 +9.5 34
1997-09-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-335.3 1344 1635 8.00% 19.10% 72.90%-2.06 -9.5 15
1997-09-13 Stjarnan W 2-142.8 1411 1307 58.03% 22.52% 19.45%+0.95 +7.8 22
1997-09-13 @ Grindavik L 1-242.8 1307 1411 19.45% 22.52% 58.03%-0.95 -7.8 7
1997-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-038.2 1469 1417 52.28% 23.09% 24.63%+0.63 +27.9 24
1997-09-13 @ IF Leiftur L 0-338.2 1417 1469 24.63% 23.09% 52.28%-0.63 -27.9 23
1997-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-369.3 1597 1644 39.19% 23.56% 37.25%+0.04 -13.2 24
1997-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-269.3 1644 1597 37.25% 23.56% 39.19%-0.04 +13.2 37
1997-09-13 Fram Reykjavik L 2-445.6 1257 1426 23.84% 23.02% 53.14%-0.68 -14.5 9
1997-09-13 @ Skallagrimur W 4-245.6 1426 1257 53.14% 23.02% 23.84%+0.68 +14.5 26
1997-09-13 IA Akranes W 2-162.5 1334 1624 13.58% 21.34% 65.08%-1.40 +21.7 18
1997-09-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-262.5 1624 1334 65.08% 21.34% 13.58%+1.40 -21.7 31
1997-09-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-036.8 1440 1356 55.92% 22.76% 21.32%+0.83 +17.0 29
1997-09-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-236.8 1356 1440 21.32% 22.76% 55.92%-0.83 -17.0 18
1997-09-21 IF Leiftur L 1-252.6 1419 1497 34.89% 23.54% 41.57%-0.14 -12.7 22
1997-09-21 @ Grindavik W 2-152.6 1497 1419 41.57% 23.54% 34.89%+0.14 +12.7 27
1997-09-21 KR Reykjavik W 4-261.4 1602 1584 48.20% 23.34% 28.46%+0.44 +16.8 34
1997-09-21 @ IA Akranes L 2-461.4 1584 1602 28.46% 23.34% 48.20%-0.44 -16.8 24
1997-09-21 Keflavik IF W 5-141.8 1658 1389 71.48% 19.60% 8.92%+1.93 +11.6 40
1997-09-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-541.8 1389 1658 8.92% 19.60% 71.48%-1.93 -11.6 23
1997-09-21 Skallagrimur L 1-251.5 1299 1243 52.80% 23.05% 24.16%+0.66 -17.8 7
1997-09-21 @ Stjarnan W 2-151.5 1243 1299 24.16% 23.05% 52.80%-0.66 +17.9 12
1997-09-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-164.0 1510 1669 24.76% 23.10% 52.14%-0.63 +30.6 30
1997-09-27 @ IF Leiftur L 1-364.0 1669 1510 52.14% 23.10% 24.76%+0.63 -30.6 40
1997-09-27 IA Akranes D 1-163.1 1378 1619 17.05% 22.13% 60.82%-1.11 +3.7 24
1997-09-27 @ Keflavik IF D 1-163.1 1619 1378 60.82% 22.13% 17.05%+1.11 -3.7 35
1997-09-27 Fram Reykjavik W 4-253.1 1567 1457 58.62% 22.44% 18.94%+0.98 +11.8 27
1997-09-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-453.1 1457 1567 18.94% 22.44% 58.62%-0.98 -11.8 29
1997-09-27 Grindavik W 3-256.9 1261 1406 26.38% 23.21% 50.41%-0.54 +16.2 15
1997-09-27 @ Skallagrimur L 2-356.9 1406 1261 50.41% 23.21% 26.38%+0.54 -16.2 22
1997-09-27 Stjarnan W 3-033.2 1339 1281 52.98% 23.03% 23.99%+0.67 +27.3 21
1997-09-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-333.2 1281 1339 23.99% 23.03% 52.98%-0.67 -27.3 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1997-08-17 13.18% Skallagrimur 1264 3 @ Keflavik IF 1451 2
2 1997-07-16 13.37% Grindavik 1408 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1592 0
3 1997-09-13 13.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 1334 2 IA Akranes 1624 1
4 1997-05-29 15.08% Fram Reykjavik 1325 1 @ IF Leiftur 1483 0
5 1997-09-01 16.85% @ Stjarnan 1266 2 IF Leiftur 1510 0
6 1997-06-22 20.03% KR Reykjavik 1508 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1605 1
7 1997-05-25 21.12% IF Leiftur 1395 5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1481 0
8 1997-09-21 24.16% Skallagrimur 1243 2 @ Stjarnan 1299 1
9 1997-05-29 24.33% @ Valur Reykjavik 1393 3 KR Reykjavik 1556 1
10 1997-09-27 24.76% @ IF Leiftur 1510 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1669 1
11 1997-09-27 26.38% @ Skallagrimur 1261 3 Grindavik 1406 2
12 1997-05-19 27.17% @ Skallagrimur 1301 3 IF Leiftur 1439 0
13 1997-07-13 29.01% @ Fram Reykjavik 1394 3 Keflavik IF 1518 1
14 1997-07-01 29.83% Fram Reykjavik 1360 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1367 0
15 1997-05-19 30.51% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1485 3 IA Akranes 1596 1
16 1997-07-13 31.24% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1592 3 @ IA Akranes 1588 1
17 1997-08-24 31.75% @ Valur Reykjavik 1329 2 Keflavik IF 1430 1
18 1997-07-07 32.31% Valur Reykjavik 1335 3 @ Stjarnan 1323 1
19 1997-06-18 32.44% Keflavik IF 1536 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1523 1
20 1997-07-02 34.03% @ KR Reykjavik 1527 4 IA Akranes 1611 0
21 1997-08-13 34.50% IF Leiftur 1494 1 @ Keflavik IF 1466 0
22 1997-07-16 35.25% @ IF Leiftur 1485 1 IA Akranes 1561 0
23 1997-05-22 35.27% Keflavik IF 1466 3 @ Stjarnan 1432 1
24 1997-08-07 36.99% @ Grindavik 1431 2 Keflavik IF 1494 0
25 1997-09-13 37.25% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1644 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1597 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-05-25 88.33 IF Leiftur 5 1395 21.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1481 56.14% 22.74%
2 1997-07-02 56.25 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1527 34.03% IA Akranes 0 1611 42.45% 23.53%
3 1997-05-19 49.04 @ Skallagrimur 3 1301 27.17% IF Leiftur 0 1439 49.56% 23.26%
4 1997-08-24 43.08 IA Akranes 4 1566 46.38% @ Grindavik 0 1453 30.21% 23.42%
5 1997-09-01 40.85 @ Stjarnan 2 1266 16.85% IF Leiftur 0 1510 61.05% 22.09%
6 1997-05-25 36.82 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1510 57.88% Stjarnan 0 1407 19.59% 22.54%
7 1997-06-18 36.36 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1569 52.33% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1407 24.58% 23.08%
8 1997-07-06 32.98 @ IA Akranes 3 1555 46.36% Keflavik IF 0 1551 30.22% 23.42%
9 1997-07-01 32.12 Fram Reykjavik 2 1360 29.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1367 46.77% 23.40%
10 1997-05-29 30.83 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1393 24.33% KR Reykjavik 1 1556 52.61% 23.06%
11 1997-09-27 30.59 @ IF Leiftur 3 1510 24.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1669 52.14% 23.10%
12 1997-07-13 28.25 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1394 29.01% Keflavik IF 1 1518 47.62% 23.36%
13 1997-08-07 27.97 @ Grindavik 2 1431 36.99% Keflavik IF 0 1494 39.45% 23.56%
14 1997-09-13 27.88 @ IF Leiftur 3 1469 52.28% Keflavik IF 0 1417 24.63% 23.09%
15 1997-05-19 27.46 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1485 30.51% IA Akranes 1 1596 46.06% 23.43%
16 1997-09-27 27.27 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1339 52.98% Stjarnan 0 1281 23.99% 23.03%
17 1997-07-13 27.09 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1592 31.24% @ IA Akranes 1 1588 45.30% 23.45%
18 1997-07-07 26.54 Valur Reykjavik 3 1335 32.31% @ Stjarnan 1 1323 44.20% 23.49%
19 1997-05-22 25.06 Keflavik IF 3 1466 35.27% @ Stjarnan 1 1432 41.18% 23.55%
20 1997-07-02 24.25 @ IF Leiftur 4 1461 51.29% Grindavik 1 1418 25.56% 23.16%
21 1997-05-29 24.20 IA Akranes 3 1568 56.40% @ Stjarnan 0 1371 20.89% 22.71%
22 1997-05-22 23.11 Valur Reykjavik 2 1458 45.66% @ Skallagrimur 0 1350 30.89% 23.44%
23 1997-07-16 23.09 Grindavik 1 1408 13.37% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1592 65.34% 21.29%
24 1997-05-29 22.38 Fram Reykjavik 1 1325 15.08% @ IF Leiftur 0 1483 63.20% 21.72%
25 1997-05-29 22.07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1547 47.46% @ Grindavik 0 1425 29.17% 23.37%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-09-13 69.3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1644 37.25% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1597 39.19% 23.56%
2 1997-07-02 67.7 @ Keflavik IF 1 1551 40.23% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1591 36.21% 23.56%
3 1997-08-23 66.7 @ IF Leiftur 1 1509 33.13% KR Reykjavik 1 1600 43.36% 23.51%
4 1997-06-22 66.1 KR Reykjavik 2 1508 20.03% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1605 57.37% 22.60%
5 1997-07-16 65.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1619 66.32% Fram Reykjavik 1 1423 12.61% 21.06%
6 1997-09-27 64.0 @ IF Leiftur 3 1510 24.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1669 52.14% 23.10%
7 1997-09-01 63.6 @ Keflavik IF 1 1415 22.11% KR Reykjavik 1 1599 55.04% 22.85%
8 1997-09-27 63.1 @ Keflavik IF 1 1378 17.05% IA Akranes 1 1619 60.82% 22.13%
9 1997-09-02 63.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1427 47.98% Grindavik 2 1410 28.68% 23.35%
10 1997-09-13 62.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1334 13.58% IA Akranes 1 1624 65.08% 21.34%
11 1997-06-18 62.4 @ IF Leiftur 2 1464 60.57% Stjarnan 2 1334 17.26% 22.17%
12 1997-05-22 62.2 @ Grindavik 1 1444 32.57% KR Reykjavik 1 1539 43.94% 23.49%
13 1997-07-06 62.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1392 21.47% KR Reykjavik 1 1583 55.76% 22.78%
14 1997-07-13 62.1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1592 31.24% @ IA Akranes 1 1588 45.30% 23.45%
15 1997-08-17 61.5 Skallagrimur 3 1264 13.18% @ Keflavik IF 2 1451 65.58% 21.23%
16 1997-09-21 61.4 @ IA Akranes 4 1602 48.20% KR Reykjavik 2 1584 28.46% 23.34%
17 1997-06-18 60.5 Keflavik IF 2 1536 32.44% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1523 44.07% 23.49%
18 1997-08-17 60.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1416 32.76% IF Leiftur 1 1510 43.74% 23.50%
19 1997-07-30 60.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1614 58.47% IF Leiftur 2 1506 19.07% 22.46%
20 1997-05-19 59.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1485 30.51% IA Akranes 1 1596 46.06% 23.43%
21 1997-07-16 59.0 Grindavik 1 1408 13.37% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1592 65.34% 21.29%
22 1997-06-03 58.4 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1526 53.75% IF Leiftur 0 1461 23.28% 22.97%
23 1997-05-19 58.0 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1543 59.04% Stjarnan 0 1429 18.58% 22.39%
24 1997-08-07 58.0 @ IF Leiftur 1 1498 63.13% Valur Reykjavik 1 1341 15.14% 21.73%
25 1997-05-22 57.9 @ IA Akranes 0 1569 64.92% IF Leiftur 0 1390 13.70% 21.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-09-01 31.2 @ IA Akranes 6 1610 75.60% Skallagrimur 0 1272 6.38% 18.02%
2 1997-05-25 32.3 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1538 67.50% Skallagrimur 0 1327 11.73% 20.78%
3 1997-09-27 33.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1339 52.98% Stjarnan 0 1281 23.99% 23.03%
4 1997-08-24 34.0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1622 68.74% @ Skallagrimur 0 1285 10.82% 20.44%
5 1997-09-03 35.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1635 72.90% Valur Reykjavik 0 1344 8.00% 19.10%
6 1997-07-23 36.0 @ IF Leiftur 1 1501 67.90% Skallagrimur 0 1284 11.43% 20.67%
7 1997-07-13 36.3 KR Reykjavik 2 1580 64.59% @ Stjarnan 0 1297 13.96% 21.45%
8 1997-08-17 36.7 @ IA Akranes 6 1557 71.65% Stjarnan 2 1286 8.80% 19.54%
9 1997-09-21 36.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1440 55.92% Valur Reykjavik 0 1356 21.32% 22.76%
10 1997-05-25 37.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1510 57.88% Stjarnan 0 1407 19.59% 22.54%
11 1997-08-17 37.1 @ KR Reykjavik 6 1584 69.49% Valur Reykjavik 1 1345 10.28% 20.23%
12 1997-09-13 38.2 @ IF Leiftur 3 1469 52.28% Keflavik IF 0 1417 24.63% 23.09%
13 1997-05-19 38.5 @ Keflavik IF 1 1458 60.06% Fram Reykjavik 0 1334 17.70% 22.24%
14 1997-06-22 38.5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1349 52.70% Skallagrimur 0 1294 24.25% 23.05%
15 1997-05-29 38.8 IA Akranes 3 1568 56.40% @ Stjarnan 0 1371 20.89% 22.71%
16 1997-08-06 38.8 KR Reykjavik 6 1569 65.08% @ Skallagrimur 2 1279 13.57% 21.34%
17 1997-06-29 39.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1586 73.56% Skallagrimur 1 1284 7.59% 18.86%
18 1997-06-18 39.6 IA Akranes 1 1602 66.08% @ Skallagrimur 0 1300 12.80% 21.12%
19 1997-05-29 40.0 Keflavik IF 1 1511 56.93% @ Skallagrimur 0 1308 20.42% 22.65%
20 1997-05-22 40.2 Valur Reykjavik 2 1458 45.66% @ Skallagrimur 0 1350 30.89% 23.44%
21 1997-06-18 40.6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1569 52.33% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1407 24.58% 23.08%
22 1997-06-03 40.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 1519 57.18% Valur Reykjavik 0 1424 20.20% 22.62%
23 1997-06-03 41.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1348 45.93% Stjarnan 0 1346 30.64% 23.43%
24 1997-07-17 41.1 @ Keflavik IF 2 1489 66.96% Stjarnan 1 1285 12.13% 20.91%
25 1997-09-21 41.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1658 71.48% Keflavik IF 1 1389 8.92% 19.60%