Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1998
‹ ›

1998 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

38 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1997.0

Relegated

IR Reykjavik

17 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Throttur Reykjavik

8.36 points above expected

18 points · 9.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

5.96 points below expected

20 points · 25.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion 18 12 2 4 38 40 15 +25 34.24 +3.76
2 KR Reykjavik 18 9 6 3 33 25 9 +16 33.99 -0.99
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 27 22 +5 33.47 -3.47
4 Keflavik IF 18 8 4 6 28 19 23 -4 21.79 +6.21
5 IF Leiftur 18 7 4 7 25 21 21 0 30.29 -5.29
6 Fram Reykjavik 18 5 5 8 20 21 23 -2 25.96 -5.96
7 Grindavik 18 5 4 9 19 24 34 -10 23.21 -4.21
8 Valur Reykjavik 18 4 6 8 18 25 33 -8 21.58 -3.58
9 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 6 8 18 27 39 -12 9.64 +8.36
10 IR Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 5 9 17 20 30 -10 15.55 +1.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 18 9.64 +8.36
2 Keflavik IF 28 21.79 +6.21
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 38 34.24 +3.76
4 IR Reykjavik 17 15.55 +1.45
5 KR Reykjavik 33 33.99 -0.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 20 25.96 -5.96
2 IF Leiftur 25 30.29 -5.29
3 Grindavik 19 23.21 -4.21
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 21.58 -3.58
5 IA Akranes 30 33.47 -3.47

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 20 – Sep 12 1 in 54
2 Throttur Reykjavik 1 Jun 1 – Jun 1 1 in 11
3 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 29 – Aug 8 1 in 9
4 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 2 – Jun 9 1 in 9
5 IA Akranes 4 Jun 28 – Jul 18 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 2 – Jun 24 1 in 53
2 IA Akranes 2 Aug 8 – Aug 16 1 in 30
3 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 9 – Jul 18 1 in 19
4 KR Reykjavik 2 Sep 20 – Sep 26 1 in 15
5 Grindavik 3 Jul 19 – Aug 9 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Reykjavik 4 May 18 – Jun 1 1 in 240
2 IR Reykjavik 4 Sep 1 – Sep 26 1 in 26
3 Keflavik IF 5 Aug 16 – Sep 20 1 in 21
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 22 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 8 May 19 – Jul 5 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 8 May 19 – Jul 5 1 in 43
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 14 – Jul 9 1 in 37
3 IA Akranes 4 May 19 – Jun 1 1 in 20
4 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 19 – Jun 13 1 in 14
5 Grindavik 6 Jun 24 – Aug 9 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1640 38 +10 10 9.0 +1.0
KR Reykjavik 1604 33 -4 9 9.7 -0.7
IA Akranes 1591 30 +3 8 9.3 -1.3
Keflavik IF 1437 28 +14 10 6.2 +3.8
IF Leiftur 1533 25 -5 7 8.3 -1.3
Fram Reykjavik 1484 20 -12 4 8.1 -4.1
Grindavik 1422 19 -12 6 5.4 +0.6
Throttur Reykjavik 1206 18 +4 5 2.5 +2.5
Valur Reykjavik 1419 18 -9 4 6.2 -2.2
IR Reykjavik 1321 17 +10 6 4.7 +1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR GRI IA IV IL IR KR KI TR VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
3.14
1-1-0
1.85
0-0-2
1.72
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
3.89
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
3.10
1-1-0
4.56
2-0-0
3.14
Grindavik
1-1-0
2.32
 —
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
1.43
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.72
0-1-1
1.72
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
4.35
0-1-1
2.86
IA Akranes
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.81
 —
1-0-1
2.59
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
4.62
0-1-1
2.77
1-1-0
3.98
1-1-0
5.13
0-1-1
4.03
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2-0-0
3.81
1-0-1
4.15
1-0-1
2.87
 —
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
4.74
2-0-0
2.90
2-0-0
4.02
1-1-0
5.18
1-1-0
4.12
IF Leiftur
1-1-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.51
0-0-2
2.36
1-0-1
2.04
 —
1-1-0
4.31
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
3.43
2-0-0
4.90
1-0-1
3.62
IR Reykjavik
0-1-1
1.65
1-1-0
1.80
0-1-1
1.06
1-0-1
0.96
0-1-1
1.29
 —
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
1.95
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.80
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
4.60
 —
0-1-1
3.91
1-1-0
5.12
1-1-0
3.87
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
1.57
0-0-2
1.54
1-1-0
2.06
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
1.63
 —
0-0-2
4.40
1-1-0
2.73
Throttur Reykjavik
0-1-1
1.09
1-0-1
1.27
0-1-1
0.66
0-1-1
0.62
0-0-2
0.83
1-1-0
1.84
0-1-1
0.66
2-0-0
1.23
 —
0-1-1
1.37
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.34
1-1-0
2.60
1-1-0
1.52
0-1-1
1.45
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
3.55
0-1-1
1.67
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
4.23
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.36 +7.3
Allowed 0.73 -6.9
Differential 0.88 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.89%8.89%5.56%5.56%2.22%—31.11%
18.89%11.11%3.89%3.89%0.56%2.22%30.56%
25.56%3.89%4.44%1.67%2.22%—17.78%
35.56%3.89%1.67%2.22%——13.33%
42.22%0.56%2.22%———5.00%
5+—2.22%————2.22%
Total31.11%30.56%17.78%13.33%5.00%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.99
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%27.78%———55.56%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.28 -0.11
SD 1.50 1.18 1.88
CV 1.29 0.92 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%—44.44%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.89 -0.56
SD 1.68 1.23 2.25
CV 1.26 0.65 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
116.67%27.78%—5.56%——50.00%
2—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.22 +0.28
SD 1.04 1.31 1.96
CV 0.70 1.07 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
1—————5.56%5.56%
227.78%—————27.78%
311.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total50.00%38.89%—5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.83 +1.39
SD 1.63 1.29 2.17
CV 0.73 1.55 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%55.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.04 1.81
CV 1.22 0.89 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 1.18 1.08 1.54
CV 1.06 0.65 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
216.67%—————16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total66.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.50 +0.89
SD 1.24 0.86 1.75
CV 0.90 1.71 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
127.78%11.11%5.56%——5.56%50.00%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.28 -0.22
SD 0.94 1.49 1.86
CV 0.89 1.16 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——16.67%——22.22%
111.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%33.33%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.17 -0.67
SD 1.34 1.54 2.11
CV 0.89 0.71 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%27.78%27.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.83 -0.44
SD 1.14 1.58 1.89
CV 0.82 0.86 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1640 38 34.24 +3.76 77.0% 19 26 31 35 38 42 48
KR Reykjavik 1604 33 33.99 -0.99 43.0% 20 25 30 34 38 42 46
IA Akranes 1591 30 33.47 -3.47 28.0% 23 25 30 33 37 41 46
IF Leiftur 1533 25 30.29 -5.29 18.0% 14 23 26 30 34 37 44
Fram Reykjavik 1484 20 25.96 -5.96 17.0% 14 17 23 26 30 33 44
Keflavik IF 1437 28 21.79 +6.21 92.0% 11 14 18 22 25 29 35
Grindavik 1422 19 23.21 -4.21 24.0% 11 15 20 23 27 31 36
Valur Reykjavik 1419 18 21.58 -3.58 21.0% 11 15 19 21 24 29 38
IR Reykjavik 1321 17 15.55 +1.45 62.0% 5 8 12 15 19 25 28
Throttur Reykjavik 1206 18 9.64 +8.36 100.0% 2 3 7 9 13 17 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.00%
Strong Edge
46.67%26.67%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 70.44 Elo pts.
293 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Comfortable
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.98 * Some Luck: 3.98 to 5.97 * Lucky: 5.97 to 7.95 * Wild Swing: 7.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.96 * Close: 0.96 to 1.44 * Off: 1.44 to 1.92 * Way Off: 1.92 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.80 points
Some Luck
04.9712
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.202.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Throttur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
17.00%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 134.91
1.33
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.13
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.76
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.133
Well Within Noise
00.1820.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IBV Vestmannaeyjar35.00%24.00%16.00%13.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%——
KR Reykjavik32.00%26.00%20.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
IA Akranes23.00%20.00%29.00%16.00%6.00%6.00%————
Keflavik IF——4.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%25.00%19.00%14.00%2.00%
IF Leiftur5.00%23.00%16.00%23.00%13.00%11.00%6.00%3.00%——
Fram Reykjavik2.00%5.00%9.00%15.00%28.00%18.00%14.00%5.00%4.00%—
Grindavik2.00%1.00%5.00%9.00%18.00%14.00%18.00%21.00%10.00%2.00%
Valur Reykjavik1.00%1.00%1.00%5.00%7.00%23.00%26.00%24.00%10.00%2.00%
Throttur Reykjavik——————1.00%4.00%24.00%71.00%
IR Reykjavik———2.00%4.00%5.00%7.00%21.00%38.00%23.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 100% —
IF Leiftur 100% —
KR Reykjavik 100% —
Fram Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
Grindavik 88.00% 12.00%
Valur Reykjavik 88.00% 12.00%
Keflavik IF 84.00% 16.00%
IR Reykjavik 39.00% 61.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 5.00% 95.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1998-05-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-369.8 1182 1613 8.88% 12.59% 78.53%-1.23 +1.0 1
1998-05-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 3-369.8 1613 1182 78.53% 12.59% 8.88%+1.23 -1.0 1
1998-05-19 IR Reykjavik D 1-157.3 1449 1319 62.97% 21.12% 15.91%+0.68 -1.1 1
1998-05-19 @ Grindavik D 1-157.3 1319 1449 15.91% 21.12% 62.97%-0.68 +1.1 1
1998-05-19 Keflavik IF D 1-166.3 1598 1442 65.97% 19.60% 14.43%+0.77 -1.2 1
1998-05-19 @ IA Akranes D 1-166.3 1442 1598 14.43% 19.60% 65.97%-0.77 +1.2 1
1998-05-19 Fram Reykjavik W 2-044.9 1551 1486 55.09% 24.57% 20.33%+0.46 +4.8 3
1998-05-19 @ IF Leiftur L 0-244.9 1486 1551 20.33% 24.57% 55.09%-0.46 -4.8 0
1998-05-19 Valur Reykjavik D 0-060.8 1581 1432 65.27% 19.96% 14.77%+0.75 -1.3 1
1998-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-060.8 1432 1581 14.77% 19.96% 65.27%-0.75 +1.3 1
1998-05-23 IF Leiftur W 3-156.2 1448 1556 31.42% 28.08% 40.50%-0.13 +7.3 4
1998-05-23 @ Grindavik L 1-356.2 1556 1448 40.50% 28.08% 31.42%+0.13 -7.3 3
1998-05-23 IA Akranes W 3-157.5 1612 1597 48.58% 26.66% 24.77%+0.29 +5.0 4
1998-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-357.5 1597 1612 24.77% 26.66% 48.58%-0.29 -5.0 1
1998-05-23 Keflavik IF L 1-248.6 1321 1444 29.52% 27.83% 42.65%-0.18 -3.3 1
1998-05-23 @ IR Reykjavik W 2-148.6 1444 1321 42.65% 27.83% 29.52%+0.18 +3.3 4
1998-05-23 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-366.8 1433 1183 75.76% 14.19% 10.05%+1.09 -1.0 2
1998-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-366.8 1183 1433 10.05% 14.19% 75.76%-1.09 +1.0 2
1998-05-24 KR Reykjavik L 0-250.5 1481 1580 32.57% 28.18% 39.25%-0.10 -7.2 0
1998-05-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-050.5 1580 1481 39.25% 28.18% 32.57%+0.10 +7.2 4
1998-05-27 Grindavik D 1-166.0 1587 1455 63.24% 20.99% 15.77%+0.69 -1.1 5
1998-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-166.0 1455 1587 15.77% 20.99% 63.24%-0.69 +1.1 5
1998-05-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-165.8 1592 1432 66.41% 19.37% 14.22%+0.78 -1.2 2
1998-05-28 @ IA Akranes D 1-165.8 1432 1592 14.22% 19.37% 66.41%-0.78 +1.2 3
1998-05-28 IR Reykjavik W 1-036.4 1549 1317 73.96% 15.22% 10.82%+1.03 +1.2 6
1998-05-28 @ IF Leiftur L 0-136.4 1317 1549 10.82% 15.22% 73.96%-1.03 -1.2 1
1998-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-345.5 1447 1617 24.34% 26.50% 49.16%-0.34 -8.2 4
1998-05-28 @ Keflavik IF W 3-045.5 1617 1447 49.16% 26.50% 24.34%+0.34 +8.2 7
1998-05-28 Fram Reykjavik D 0-051.6 1184 1474 15.37% 20.58% 64.05%-0.75 +1.3 3
1998-05-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-051.6 1474 1184 64.05% 20.58% 15.37%+0.75 -1.3 1
1998-06-01 IA Akranes D 1-164.6 1473 1591 30.12% 27.92% 41.96%-0.16 +0.3 2
1998-06-01 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-164.6 1591 1473 41.96% 27.92% 30.12%+0.16 -0.3 3
1998-06-01 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-151.8 1456 1186 77.68% 13.08% 9.23%+1.16 -7.2 5
1998-06-01 @ Grindavik W 1-051.8 1186 1456 9.23% 13.08% 77.68%-1.16 +7.2 6
1998-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 0-062.6 1550 1586 41.40% 27.98% 30.61%+0.12 -0.3 7
1998-06-01 @ IF Leiftur D 0-062.6 1586 1550 30.61% 27.98% 41.40%-0.12 +0.3 6
1998-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-056.8 1316 1626 14.26% 19.42% 66.32%-0.81 +6.5 4
1998-06-01 @ IR Reykjavik L 0-156.8 1626 1316 66.32% 19.42% 14.26%+0.81 -6.5 7
1998-06-02 Keflavik IF L 0-150.7 1434 1439 45.76% 27.30% 26.94%+0.22 -4.9 3
1998-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-050.7 1439 1434 26.94% 27.30% 45.76%-0.22 +4.9 7
1998-06-08 IF Leiftur L 1-239.6 1193 1549 11.93% 16.66% 71.41%-0.98 -1.3 6
1998-06-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-139.6 1549 1193 71.41% 16.66% 11.93%+0.98 +1.3 10
1998-06-09 Grindavik W 3-040.0 1590 1449 64.31% 20.45% 15.24%+0.72 +5.0 6
1998-06-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-340.0 1449 1590 15.24% 20.45% 64.31%-0.72 -5.0 5
1998-06-09 Valur Reykjavik W 6-141.0 1619 1429 69.78% 17.56% 12.66%+0.89 +5.3 10
1998-06-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-641.0 1429 1619 12.66% 17.56% 69.78%-0.89 -5.3 3
1998-06-09 Fram Reykjavik W 1-047.5 1444 1473 42.43% 27.86% 29.71%+0.14 +3.6 10
1998-06-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-147.5 1473 1444 29.71% 27.86% 42.43%-0.14 -3.5 2
1998-06-09 IR Reykjavik W 3-031.5 1586 1323 77.06% 13.45% 9.50%+1.14 +2.8 9
1998-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-331.5 1323 1586 9.50% 13.45% 77.06%-1.14 -2.8 4
1998-06-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-249.3 1469 1624 25.89% 27.02% 47.09%-0.29 -6.0 2
1998-06-13 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-049.3 1624 1469 47.09% 27.02% 25.89%+0.29 +6.0 13
1998-06-14 Keflavik IF W 2-150.8 1444 1447 46.07% 27.24% 26.69%+0.23 +3.1 8
1998-06-14 @ Grindavik L 1-250.8 1447 1444 26.69% 27.24% 46.07%-0.23 -3.1 10
1998-06-14 IA Akranes L 0-452.7 1551 1595 40.23% 28.10% 31.67%+0.09 -15.9 10
1998-06-14 @ IF Leiftur W 4-052.7 1595 1551 31.67% 28.10% 40.23%-0.09 +15.9 9
1998-06-14 Valur Reykjavik W 3-256.3 1320 1423 31.98% 28.13% 39.89%-0.11 +4.0 7
1998-06-14 @ IR Reykjavik L 2-356.3 1423 1320 39.89% 28.13% 31.98%+0.11 -4.0 3
1998-06-14 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-161.7 1589 1192 87.15% 7.56% 5.29%+1.60 -1.9 10
1998-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-161.7 1192 1589 5.29% 7.56% 87.15%-1.60 +1.9 7
1998-06-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-169.1 1611 1587 49.73% 26.35% 23.93%+0.32 -0.6 10
1998-06-24 @ IA Akranes D 1-169.1 1587 1611 23.93% 26.35% 49.73%-0.32 +0.6 11
1998-06-24 Grindavik W 2-042.2 1630 1447 68.99% 17.99% 13.02%+0.86 +2.8 16
1998-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-242.2 1447 1630 13.02% 17.99% 68.99%-0.86 -2.8 8
1998-06-24 IF Leiftur W 1-052.4 1444 1535 33.70% 28.25% 38.05%-0.07 +4.3 13
1998-06-24 @ Keflavik IF L 0-152.4 1535 1444 38.05% 28.25% 33.70%+0.07 -4.3 10
1998-06-24 Fram Reykjavik L 1-254.9 1419 1463 40.34% 28.09% 31.57%+0.09 -4.2 3
1998-06-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-154.9 1463 1419 31.57% 28.09% 40.34%-0.09 +4.2 5
1998-06-25 IR Reykjavik W 3-147.4 1193 1324 28.65% 27.68% 43.67%-0.20 +7.7 10
1998-06-25 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-347.4 1324 1193 43.67% 27.68% 28.65%+0.20 -7.7 7
1998-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-057.5 1611 1633 43.38% 27.72% 28.90%+0.16 +3.5 13
1998-06-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-157.5 1633 1611 28.90% 27.72% 43.38%-0.16 -3.5 16
1998-07-05 Valur Reykjavik D 2-263.5 1444 1415 50.43% 26.14% 23.42%+0.34 -0.5 9
1998-07-05 @ Grindavik D 2-263.5 1415 1444 23.42% 26.14% 50.43%-0.34 +0.5 4
1998-07-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-156.6 1530 1630 32.54% 28.18% 39.29%-0.10 +13.1 13
1998-07-05 @ IF Leiftur L 1-556.6 1630 1530 39.29% 28.18% 32.54%+0.10 -13.1 16
1998-07-05 Fram Reykjavik L 0-337.2 1316 1468 26.27% 27.13% 46.60%-0.28 -8.8 7
1998-07-05 @ IR Reykjavik W 3-037.2 1468 1316 46.60% 27.13% 26.27%+0.28 +8.8 8
1998-07-05 Keflavik IF D 0-061.5 1588 1448 64.12% 20.55% 15.33%+0.72 -1.3 12
1998-07-05 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-061.5 1448 1588 15.33% 20.55% 64.12%-0.72 +1.3 14
1998-07-06 IA Akranes L 1-239.4 1201 1614 9.55% 13.52% 76.93%-1.17 -1.0 10
1998-07-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-139.4 1614 1201 76.93% 13.52% 9.55%+1.17 +1.0 16
1998-07-09 IR Reykjavik W 2-141.4 1615 1307 80.86% 11.24% 7.90%+1.29 +0.8 19
1998-07-09 @ IA Akranes L 1-241.4 1307 1615 7.90% 11.24% 80.86%-1.29 -0.8 7
1998-07-09 KR Reykjavik W 3-156.7 1617 1587 50.53% 26.12% 23.36%+0.34 +4.7 19
1998-07-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-356.7 1587 1617 23.36% 26.12% 50.53%-0.34 -4.7 12
1998-07-09 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-549.4 1450 1200 75.72% 14.21% 10.06%+1.09 -21.2 14
1998-07-09 @ Keflavik IF W 5-149.4 1200 1450 10.06% 14.21% 75.72%-1.09 +21.2 13
1998-07-09 IF Leiftur W 1-053.1 1416 1544 28.93% 27.73% 43.34%-0.20 +4.7 7
1998-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-153.1 1544 1416 43.34% 27.73% 28.93%+0.20 -4.7 13
1998-07-10 Grindavik D 0-055.6 1476 1444 50.83% 26.03% 23.15%+0.35 -0.7 9
1998-07-10 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-055.6 1444 1476 23.15% 26.03% 50.83%-0.35 +0.7 10
1998-07-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-026.4 1621 1221 87.30% 7.47% 5.23%+1.60 +1.4 22
1998-07-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-326.4 1221 1621 5.23% 7.47% 87.30%-1.60 -1.4 13
1998-07-18 IA Akranes L 0-149.5 1429 1616 22.73% 25.85% 51.42%-0.40 -2.8 14
1998-07-18 @ Keflavik IF W 1-049.5 1616 1429 51.42% 25.85% 22.73%+0.40 +2.8 22
1998-07-19 IF Leiftur D 0-058.4 1476 1539 37.59% 28.26% 34.14%+0.02 -0.1 10
1998-07-19 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-058.4 1539 1476 34.14% 28.26% 37.59%-0.02 +0.1 14
1998-07-19 Grindavik W 4-253.7 1306 1445 27.73% 27.49% 44.78%-0.23 +7.1 10
1998-07-19 @ IR Reykjavik L 2-453.7 1445 1306 44.78% 27.49% 27.73%+0.23 -7.0 10
1998-07-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-343.5 1420 1582 25.22% 26.81% 47.98%-0.31 -8.5 7
1998-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-043.5 1582 1420 47.98% 26.81% 25.22%+0.31 +8.5 15
1998-07-29 Valur Reykjavik L 0-333.4 1220 1412 22.34% 25.66% 51.99%-0.41 -7.6 13
1998-07-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-033.4 1412 1220 51.99% 25.66% 22.34%+0.41 +7.6 10
1998-07-30 Grindavik W 3-254.7 1539 1438 59.58% 22.71% 17.71%+0.59 +1.9 17
1998-07-30 @ IF Leiftur L 2-354.7 1438 1539 17.71% 22.71% 59.58%-0.59 -2.0 10
1998-07-30 IR Reykjavik W 1-037.5 1426 1313 60.91% 22.11% 16.99%+0.62 +2.1 17
1998-07-30 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.5 1313 1426 16.99% 22.11% 60.91%-0.62 -2.1 10
1998-07-30 Fram Reykjavik W 2-044.1 1590 1476 61.23% 21.96% 16.82%+0.63 +3.9 18
1998-07-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-244.1 1476 1590 16.82% 21.96% 61.23%-0.63 -3.9 10
1998-08-08 Keflavik IF W 4-038.0 1623 1428 70.26% 17.30% 12.44%+0.90 +5.1 25
1998-08-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-438.0 1428 1623 12.44% 17.30% 70.26%-0.90 -5.1 17
1998-08-08 IA Akranes W 4-264.3 1419 1619 21.68% 25.33% 52.99%-0.44 +8.0 13
1998-08-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-464.3 1619 1419 52.99% 25.33% 21.68%+0.44 -8.0 22
1998-08-09 KR Reykjavik L 0-444.0 1436 1594 25.53% 26.91% 47.56%-0.30 -11.2 10
1998-08-09 @ Grindavik W 4-044.0 1594 1436 47.56% 26.91% 25.53%+0.30 +11.2 21
1998-08-09 IF Leiftur D 1-158.5 1311 1541 19.29% 23.90% 56.81%-0.54 +0.9 11
1998-08-09 @ IR Reykjavik D 1-158.5 1541 1311 56.81% 23.90% 19.29%+0.54 -0.9 18
1998-08-10 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-238.1 1472 1212 76.63% 13.69% 9.68%+1.12 +1.5 13
1998-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-438.1 1212 1472 9.68% 13.69% 76.63%-1.12 -1.5 13
1998-08-15 IF Leiftur W 1-051.7 1606 1540 55.13% 24.56% 20.31%+0.46 +2.5 24
1998-08-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-151.7 1540 1606 20.31% 24.56% 55.13%-0.46 -2.5 18
1998-08-16 Fram Reykjavik L 0-455.6 1611 1473 63.90% 20.66% 15.44%+0.71 -22.7 22
1998-08-16 @ IA Akranes W 4-055.6 1473 1611 15.44% 20.66% 63.90%-0.71 +22.7 16
1998-08-16 IR Reykjavik W 4-136.1 1628 1312 81.46% 10.89% 7.65%+1.32 +1.8 28
1998-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-436.1 1312 1628 7.65% 10.89% 81.46%-1.32 -1.8 11
1998-08-16 Valur Reykjavik D 2-262.8 1423 1427 45.83% 27.29% 26.88%+0.22 -0.3 18
1998-08-16 @ Keflavik IF D 2-262.8 1427 1423 26.88% 27.29% 45.83%-0.22 +0.3 14
1998-08-16 Grindavik L 1-635.0 1211 1424 20.51% 24.68% 54.81%-0.49 -9.3 13
1998-08-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 6-135.0 1424 1211 54.81% 24.68% 20.51%+0.49 +9.3 13
1998-08-22 IA Akranes L 0-344.6 1434 1588 25.97% 27.04% 46.98%-0.29 -8.7 13
1998-08-22 @ Grindavik W 3-044.6 1588 1434 46.98% 27.04% 25.97%+0.29 +8.7 25
1998-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-060.9 1428 1630 21.47% 25.22% 53.31%-0.45 +0.8 15
1998-08-22 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-060.9 1630 1428 53.31% 25.22% 21.47%+0.45 -0.8 29
1998-08-23 Keflavik IF L 2-364.5 1496 1422 56.14% 24.17% 19.69%+0.49 -5.1 16
1998-08-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-264.5 1422 1496 19.69% 24.17% 56.14%-0.49 +5.1 21
1998-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-133.1 1537 1202 83.02% 9.98% 7.01%+1.38 +1.1 21
1998-08-23 @ IF Leiftur L 1-333.1 1202 1537 7.01% 9.98% 83.02%-1.38 -1.1 13
1998-08-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-140.8 1310 1608 14.91% 20.12% 64.97%-0.77 -1.8 11
1998-08-23 @ IR Reykjavik W 1-040.8 1608 1310 64.97% 20.12% 14.91%+0.77 +1.8 27
1998-09-01 IF Leiftur W 1-051.7 1597 1539 54.20% 24.90% 20.89%+0.44 +2.6 28
1998-09-01 @ IA Akranes L 0-151.7 1539 1597 20.89% 24.90% 54.20%-0.44 -2.6 21
1998-09-01 Fram Reykjavik W 2-045.1 1629 1491 63.96% 20.63% 15.41%+0.71 +3.5 32
1998-09-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-245.1 1491 1629 15.41% 20.63% 63.96%-0.71 -3.5 16
1998-09-01 Grindavik W 3-038.8 1428 1425 46.81% 27.08% 26.11%+0.25 +8.8 24
1998-09-01 @ Keflavik IF L 0-338.8 1425 1428 26.11% 27.08% 46.81%-0.25 -8.8 13
1998-09-01 IR Reykjavik L 1-353.0 1429 1309 61.82% 21.68% 16.51%+0.65 -10.1 15
1998-09-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-153.0 1309 1429 16.51% 21.68% 61.82%-0.65 +10.1 14
1998-09-02 KR Reykjavik L 0-328.8 1200 1610 9.70% 13.72% 76.58%-1.16 -2.9 13
1998-09-02 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-028.8 1610 1200 76.58% 13.72% 9.70%+1.16 +2.9 30
1998-09-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-059.0 1416 1632 20.32% 24.57% 55.12%-0.50 +5.7 16
1998-09-12 @ Grindavik L 0-159.0 1632 1416 55.12% 24.57% 20.32%+0.50 -5.7 32
1998-09-12 Keflavik IF D 1-162.8 1536 1436 59.39% 22.80% 17.81%+0.58 -1.0 22
1998-09-12 @ IF Leiftur D 1-162.8 1436 1536 17.81% 22.80% 59.39%-0.58 +1.0 25
1998-09-12 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1319 1198 61.98% 21.60% 16.42%+0.65 -0.8 15
1998-09-12 @ IR Reykjavik D 2-260.2 1198 1319 16.42% 21.60% 61.98%-0.65 +0.8 14
1998-09-12 IA Akranes W 2-052.2 1613 1599 48.28% 26.73% 24.99%+0.29 +5.8 33
1998-09-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-252.2 1599 1613 24.99% 26.73% 48.28%-0.29 -5.8 28
1998-09-13 Valur Reykjavik W 3-145.4 1487 1418 55.54% 24.40% 20.06%+0.47 +4.1 19
1998-09-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-345.4 1418 1487 20.06% 24.40% 55.54%-0.47 -4.1 15
1998-09-20 IR Reykjavik D 0-054.6 1491 1318 67.92% 18.57% 13.51%+0.83 -1.5 20
1998-09-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-054.6 1318 1491 13.51% 18.57% 67.92%-0.83 +1.5 16
1998-09-20 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-267.3 1594 1198 87.01% 7.64% 5.35%+1.59 -1.4 29
1998-09-20 @ IA Akranes D 2-267.3 1198 1594 5.35% 7.64% 87.01%-1.59 +1.4 15
1998-09-20 IF Leiftur W 2-047.9 1627 1535 58.41% 23.23% 18.36%+0.55 +4.3 35
1998-09-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-247.9 1535 1627 18.36% 23.23% 58.41%-0.55 -4.3 22
1998-09-20 KR Reykjavik W 1-058.3 1437 1618 23.31% 26.10% 50.60%-0.38 +5.3 28
1998-09-20 @ Keflavik IF L 0-158.3 1618 1437 50.60% 26.10% 23.31%+0.38 -5.3 33
1998-09-20 Grindavik W 2-040.9 1414 1422 45.43% 27.37% 27.20%+0.21 +6.2 18
1998-09-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-240.9 1422 1414 27.20% 27.37% 45.43%-0.21 -6.2 16
1998-09-26 Fram Reykjavik W 4-255.1 1416 1490 36.04% 28.29% 35.67%-0.01 +6.0 19
1998-09-26 @ Grindavik L 2-455.1 1490 1416 35.67% 28.29% 36.04%+0.01 -6.0 20
1998-09-26 Valur Reykjavik W 2-148.5 1531 1421 60.65% 22.23% 17.12%+0.62 +2.0 25
1998-09-26 @ IF Leiftur L 1-248.5 1421 1531 17.12% 22.23% 60.65%-0.62 -2.0 18
1998-09-26 IA Akranes D 1-161.0 1319 1592 16.36% 21.55% 62.09%-0.69 +1.1 17
1998-09-26 @ IR Reykjavik D 1-161.0 1592 1319 62.09% 21.55% 16.36%+0.69 -1.1 30
1998-09-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-258.8 1613 1631 44.02% 27.62% 28.36%+0.18 -9.0 33
1998-09-26 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-058.8 1631 1613 28.36% 27.62% 44.02%-0.18 +9.0 38
1998-09-26 Keflavik IF W 1-049.0 1200 1443 18.33% 23.20% 58.47%-0.59 +5.9 18
1998-09-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-149.0 1443 1200 58.47% 23.20% 18.33%+0.59 -5.9 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1998-06-01 9.23% Throttur Reykjavik 1186 1 @ Grindavik 1456 0
2 1998-07-09 10.06% Throttur Reykjavik 1200 5 @ Keflavik IF 1450 1
3 1998-06-01 14.26% @ IR Reykjavik 1316 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1626 0
4 1998-08-16 15.44% Fram Reykjavik 1473 4 @ IA Akranes 1611 0
5 1998-09-01 16.51% IR Reykjavik 1309 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1429 1
6 1998-09-26 18.33% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1200 1 Keflavik IF 1443 0
7 1998-08-23 19.69% Keflavik IF 1422 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1496 2
8 1998-09-12 20.32% @ Grindavik 1416 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1632 0
9 1998-08-08 21.68% @ Valur Reykjavik 1419 4 IA Akranes 1619 2
10 1998-09-20 23.31% @ Keflavik IF 1437 1 KR Reykjavik 1618 0
11 1998-06-02 26.94% Keflavik IF 1439 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1434 0
12 1998-07-19 27.73% @ IR Reykjavik 1306 4 Grindavik 1445 2
13 1998-09-26 28.36% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1631 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1613 0
14 1998-06-25 28.65% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1193 3 IR Reykjavik 1324 1
15 1998-07-09 28.93% @ Valur Reykjavik 1416 1 IF Leiftur 1544 0
16 1998-05-23 31.42% @ Grindavik 1448 3 IF Leiftur 1556 1
17 1998-06-24 31.57% Fram Reykjavik 1463 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1419 1
18 1998-06-14 31.67% IA Akranes 1595 4 @ IF Leiftur 1551 0
19 1998-06-14 31.98% @ IR Reykjavik 1320 3 Valur Reykjavik 1423 2
20 1998-07-05 32.54% @ IF Leiftur 1530 5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1630 1
21 1998-06-24 33.70% @ Keflavik IF 1444 1 IF Leiftur 1535 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-08-16 22.66 Fram Reykjavik 4 1473 15.44% @ IA Akranes 0 1611 63.90% 20.66%
2 1998-07-09 21.17 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1200 10.06% @ Keflavik IF 1 1450 75.72% 14.21%
3 1998-06-14 15.94 IA Akranes 4 1595 31.67% @ IF Leiftur 0 1551 40.23% 28.10%
4 1998-07-05 13.06 @ IF Leiftur 5 1530 32.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1630 39.29% 28.18%
5 1998-08-09 11.21 KR Reykjavik 4 1594 47.56% @ Grindavik 0 1436 25.53% 26.91%
6 1998-09-01 10.10 IR Reykjavik 3 1309 16.51% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1429 61.82% 21.68%
7 1998-08-16 9.30 Grindavik 6 1424 54.81% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1211 20.51% 24.68%
8 1998-09-26 9.00 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1631 28.36% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1613 44.02% 27.62%
9 1998-07-05 8.80 Fram Reykjavik 3 1468 46.60% @ IR Reykjavik 0 1316 26.27% 27.13%
10 1998-09-01 8.75 @ Keflavik IF 3 1428 46.81% Grindavik 0 1425 26.11% 27.08%
11 1998-08-22 8.71 IA Akranes 3 1588 46.98% @ Grindavik 0 1434 25.97% 27.04%
12 1998-07-20 8.49 KR Reykjavik 3 1582 47.98% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1420 25.22% 26.81%
13 1998-05-28 8.22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1617 49.16% @ Keflavik IF 0 1447 24.34% 26.50%
14 1998-08-08 8.04 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1419 21.68% IA Akranes 2 1619 52.99% 25.33%
15 1998-06-25 7.74 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1193 28.65% IR Reykjavik 1 1324 43.67% 27.68%
16 1998-07-29 7.60 Valur Reykjavik 3 1412 51.99% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1220 22.34% 25.66%
17 1998-05-23 7.32 @ Grindavik 3 1448 31.42% IF Leiftur 1 1556 40.50% 28.08%
18 1998-06-01 7.21 Throttur Reykjavik 1 1186 9.23% @ Grindavik 0 1456 77.68% 13.08%
19 1998-05-24 7.20 KR Reykjavik 2 1580 39.25% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1481 32.57% 28.18%
20 1998-07-19 7.06 @ IR Reykjavik 4 1306 27.73% Grindavik 2 1445 44.78% 27.49%
21 1998-06-01 6.51 @ IR Reykjavik 1 1316 14.26% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1626 66.32% 19.42%
22 1998-09-20 6.24 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1414 45.43% Grindavik 0 1422 27.20% 27.37%
23 1998-06-13 5.99 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1624 47.09% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1469 25.89% 27.02%
24 1998-09-26 5.96 @ Grindavik 4 1416 36.04% Fram Reykjavik 2 1490 35.67% 28.29%
25 1998-09-26 5.93 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1200 18.33% Keflavik IF 0 1443 58.47% 23.20%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-05-18 69.8 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1182 8.88% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1613 78.53% 12.59%
2 1998-06-24 69.1 @ IA Akranes 1 1611 49.73% KR Reykjavik 1 1587 23.93% 26.35%
3 1998-09-20 67.3 @ IA Akranes 2 1594 87.01% Throttur Reykjavik 2 1198 5.35% 7.64%
4 1998-05-23 66.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1433 75.76% Throttur Reykjavik 3 1183 10.05% 14.19%
5 1998-05-19 66.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1598 65.97% Keflavik IF 1 1442 14.43% 19.60%
6 1998-05-27 66.0 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1587 63.24% Grindavik 1 1455 15.77% 20.99%
7 1998-05-28 65.8 @ IA Akranes 1 1592 66.41% Valur Reykjavik 1 1432 14.22% 19.37%
8 1998-06-01 64.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1473 30.12% IA Akranes 1 1591 41.96% 27.92%
9 1998-08-23 64.5 Keflavik IF 3 1422 19.69% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1496 56.14% 24.17%
10 1998-08-08 64.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1419 21.68% IA Akranes 2 1619 52.99% 25.33%
11 1998-07-05 63.5 @ Grindavik 2 1444 50.43% Valur Reykjavik 2 1415 23.42% 26.14%
12 1998-08-16 62.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 1423 45.83% Valur Reykjavik 2 1427 26.88% 27.29%
13 1998-09-12 62.8 @ IF Leiftur 1 1536 59.39% Keflavik IF 1 1436 17.81% 22.80%
14 1998-06-01 62.6 @ IF Leiftur 0 1550 41.40% KR Reykjavik 0 1586 30.61% 27.98%
15 1998-06-14 61.7 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1589 87.15% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1192 5.29% 7.56%
16 1998-07-05 61.5 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1588 64.12% Keflavik IF 0 1448 15.33% 20.55%
17 1998-09-26 61.0 @ IR Reykjavik 1 1319 16.36% IA Akranes 1 1592 62.09% 21.55%
18 1998-08-22 60.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1428 21.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1630 53.31% 25.22%
19 1998-05-19 60.8 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1581 65.27% Valur Reykjavik 0 1432 14.77% 19.96%
20 1998-09-12 60.2 @ IR Reykjavik 2 1319 61.98% Throttur Reykjavik 2 1198 16.42% 21.60%
21 1998-09-12 59.0 @ Grindavik 1 1416 20.32% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1632 55.12% 24.57%
22 1998-09-26 58.8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1631 28.36% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1613 44.02% 27.62%
23 1998-08-09 58.5 @ IR Reykjavik 1 1311 19.29% IF Leiftur 1 1541 56.81% 23.90%
24 1998-07-19 58.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1476 37.59% IF Leiftur 0 1539 34.14% 28.26%
25 1998-09-20 58.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1437 23.31% KR Reykjavik 0 1618 50.60% 26.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1998-07-18 26.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1621 87.30% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1221 5.23% 7.47%
2 1998-09-02 28.8 KR Reykjavik 3 1610 76.58% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1200 9.70% 13.72%
3 1998-06-09 31.5 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1586 77.06% IR Reykjavik 0 1323 9.50% 13.45%
4 1998-08-23 33.1 @ IF Leiftur 3 1537 83.02% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1202 7.01% 9.98%
5 1998-07-29 33.4 Valur Reykjavik 3 1412 51.99% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1220 22.34% 25.66%
6 1998-08-16 35.0 Grindavik 6 1424 54.81% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1211 20.51% 24.68%
7 1998-08-16 36.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1628 81.46% IR Reykjavik 1 1312 7.65% 10.89%
8 1998-05-28 36.4 @ IF Leiftur 1 1549 73.96% IR Reykjavik 0 1317 10.82% 15.22%
9 1998-07-05 37.2 Fram Reykjavik 3 1468 46.60% @ IR Reykjavik 0 1316 26.27% 27.13%
10 1998-07-30 37.5 @ Keflavik IF 1 1426 60.91% IR Reykjavik 0 1313 16.99% 22.11%
11 1998-08-08 38.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1623 70.26% Keflavik IF 0 1428 12.44% 17.30%
12 1998-08-10 38.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1472 76.63% Throttur Reykjavik 2 1212 9.68% 13.69%
13 1998-09-01 38.8 @ Keflavik IF 3 1428 46.81% Grindavik 0 1425 26.11% 27.08%
14 1998-07-06 39.4 IA Akranes 2 1614 76.93% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1201 9.55% 13.52%
15 1998-06-08 39.6 IF Leiftur 2 1549 71.41% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1193 11.93% 16.66%
16 1998-06-09 40.0 @ IA Akranes 3 1590 64.31% Grindavik 0 1449 15.24% 20.45%
17 1998-08-23 40.8 KR Reykjavik 1 1608 64.97% @ IR Reykjavik 0 1310 14.91% 20.12%
18 1998-09-20 40.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1414 45.43% Grindavik 0 1422 27.20% 27.37%
19 1998-06-09 41.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1619 69.78% Valur Reykjavik 1 1429 12.66% 17.56%
20 1998-07-09 41.4 @ IA Akranes 2 1615 80.86% IR Reykjavik 1 1307 7.90% 11.24%
21 1998-06-24 42.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1630 68.99% Grindavik 0 1447 13.02% 17.99%
22 1998-07-20 43.5 KR Reykjavik 3 1582 47.98% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1420 25.22% 26.81%
23 1998-08-09 44.0 KR Reykjavik 4 1594 47.56% @ Grindavik 0 1436 25.53% 26.91%
24 1998-07-30 44.1 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1590 61.23% Fram Reykjavik 0 1476 16.82% 21.96%
25 1998-08-22 44.6 IA Akranes 3 1588 46.98% @ Grindavik 0 1434 25.97% 27.04%