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1999 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

45 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1968.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

14 pts

Valur Reykjavik · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

10.38 points above expected

45 points · 34.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

6.62 points below expected

19 points · 25.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 14 3 1 45 43 13 +30 34.62 +10.38
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 11 5 2 38 31 14 +17 33.94 +4.06
3 IF Leiftur 18 6 8 4 26 22 26 -4 26.24 -0.24
4 IA Akranes 18 6 6 6 24 21 21 0 29.39 -5.39
5 Breidablik 18 5 6 7 21 22 24 -2 21.27 -0.27
6 Keflavik IF 18 5 4 9 19 28 34 -6 21.38 -2.38
7 Grindavik 18 5 4 9 19 25 29 -4 21.44 -2.44
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 7 7 19 23 27 -4 25.62 -6.62
9 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 6 8 18 28 38 -10 20.26 -2.26
10 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 5 10 14 21 38 -17 10.52 +3.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 45 34.62 +10.38
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 38 33.94 +4.06
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 14 10.52 +3.48
4 IF Leiftur 26 26.24 -0.24
5 Breidablik 21 21.27 -0.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 19 25.62 -6.62
2 IA Akranes 24 29.39 -5.39
3 Grindavik 19 21.44 -2.44
4 Keflavik IF 19 21.38 -2.38
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 20.26 -2.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 7 Aug 8 – Sep 18 1 in 42
2 Breidablik 2 Aug 31 – Sep 11 1 in 18
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 15 – Aug 21 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 24 – Aug 22 1 in 13
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 15 – Jul 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 26 – Aug 22 1 in 82
2 Breidablik 4 Aug 15 – Aug 27 1 in 33
3 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 22 – Jul 29 1 in 17
4 Grindavik 3 Jun 23 – Jul 15 1 in 13
5 IA Akranes 2 Sep 11 – Sep 18 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 6 Jun 1 – Jul 21 1 in 19
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 20 1 in 16
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 20 – Jun 20 1 in 14
4 KR Reykjavik 13 Jun 24 – Sep 18 1 in 13
5 Breidablik 4 May 27 – Jun 20 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 18 – Jun 12 1 in 26
2 Fram Reykjavik 8 Jul 22 – Sep 11 1 in 25
3 Valur Reykjavik 7 May 20 – Jul 5 1 in 10
4 Breidablik 5 Jun 12 – Jul 21 1 in 8
5 IF Leiftur 4 Jun 12 – Jun 27 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KR Reykjavik 1607 45 +52 15 10.1 +4.9
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1569 38 -12 8 9.9 -1.9
IF Leiftur 1411 26 -3 8 7.5 +0.5
IA Akranes 1455 24 -15 4 8.0 -4.0
Breidablik 1341 21 -6 7 6.0 +1.0
Grindavik 1352 19 +14 8 6.8 +1.2
Fram Reykjavik 1371 19 -25 4 6.4 -2.4
Keflavik IF 1344 19 -9 4 5.4 -1.4
Valur Reykjavik 1319 18 +0 7 4.9 +2.1
Vikingur Reykjavik 1159 14 +1 4 2.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
0-2-0
2.24
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
1.40
0-2-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.45
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
3.96
Fram Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.14
 —
0-1-1
3.17
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
1.67
1-1-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.68
1-0-1
3.15
0-1-1
3.22
2-0-0
4.27
Grindavik
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.22
 —
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.54
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.79
0-2-0
3.98
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.52
 —
0-1-1
2.03
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
3.55
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
4.59
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
4.10
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.07
1-1-0
3.37
 —
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
4.10
0-2-0
4.23
2-0-0
4.92
IF Leiftur
0-2-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
1.97
 —
0-2-0
1.86
1-1-0
3.18
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
4.35
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
4.03
2-0-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.62
0-2-0
3.57
 —
2-0-0
4.14
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
5.00
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
1.86
0-1-1
1.39
0-1-1
2.21
0-0-2
1.37
 —
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
4.06
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.83
0-2-0
1.30
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.48
0-1-1
2.49
 —
0-1-1
3.96
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
1.51
0-0-2
1.26
0-2-0
1.49
0-1-1
1.02
0-0-2
0.77
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
1.43
1-1-0
1.51
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +11.6
Allowed 0.78 -9.8
Differential 0.95 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.11%5.56%2.78%0.56%0.56%22.22%
16.11%12.22%9.44%3.33%1.67%0.56%33.33%
25.56%9.44%8.89%3.33%0.56%—27.78%
32.78%3.33%3.33%1.11%——10.56%
40.56%1.67%0.56%—1.11%0.56%4.44%
5+0.56%0.56%——0.56%—1.67%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%10.56%4.44%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.61
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.11 0.97 1.41
CV 0.91 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
1—16.67%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
216.67%—11.11%———27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 0.96 1.04 1.35
CV 0.75 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%27.78%5.56%5.56%—55.56%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%44.44%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.61 -0.22
SD 0.92 0.98 1.40
CV 0.66 0.61 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
111.11%11.11%————22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.20 0.86 1.37
CV 1.03 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%16.67%————22.22%
211.11%27.78%5.56%———44.44%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%50.00%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.78 +0.94
SD 1.23 0.81 1.73
CV 0.71 1.04 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
116.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.44 -0.22
SD 1.22 1.54 1.93
CV 0.99 1.07 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%50.00%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.72 +1.67
SD 1.29 0.67 1.41
CV 0.54 0.93 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.89 -0.33
SD 1.15 0.96 1.19
CV 0.74 0.51 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
3———————
4————5.56%5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.11 -0.56
SD 1.15 1.60 1.34
CV 0.74 0.76 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%22.22%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.11 -0.94
SD 1.20 1.23 1.51
CV 1.03 0.58 —
Max 5 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1607 45 34.62 +10.38 99.0% 22 25 31 35 38 44 46
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1569 38 33.94 +4.06 85.0% 20 27 31 34 37 41 44
IA Akranes 1455 24 29.39 -5.39 18.0% 18 22 26 29 32 39 42
IF Leiftur 1411 26 26.24 -0.24 60.0% 15 19 24 26 28 34 38
Fram Reykjavik 1371 19 25.62 -6.62 9.0% 16 18 23 25 29 33 38
Grindavik 1352 19 21.44 -2.44 36.0% 11 14 17 22 24 30 36
Keflavik IF 1344 19 21.38 -2.38 35.0% 9 12 18 21 25 29 34
Breidablik 1341 21 21.27 -0.27 56.0% 11 14 18 21 24 29 37
Valur Reykjavik 1319 18 20.26 -2.26 40.0% 8 13 17 19 24 29 33
Vikingur Reykjavik 1159 14 10.52 +3.48 83.0% 2 4 8 10 13 17 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Strong Edge
43.33%30.00%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 58.45 Elo pts.
214 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
51%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Runaway
00.230.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.78 * Some Luck: 3.78 to 5.67 * Lucky: 5.67 to 7.55 * Wild Swing: 7.55 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.07 * Close: 1.07 to 1.61 * Off: 1.61 to 2.15 * Way Off: 2.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.74 * A Surprise: 0.74 to 1.18 * Several Surprises: 1.18 to 1.63 * Many Surprises: 1.63 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.75 points
Some Luck
04.7212
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.343
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.00%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 128.55
1.81
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%65%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Rare
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Notable Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.00
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.31
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.149
Well Within Noise
00.1830.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik51.00%23.00%10.00%10.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%———
IBV Vestmannaeyjar33.00%37.00%21.00%5.00%2.00%—1.00%1.00%——
IF Leiftur3.00%11.00%10.00%16.00%24.00%19.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%
IA Akranes9.00%17.00%26.00%23.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%———
Breidablik2.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%14.00%10.00%19.00%21.00%22.00%1.00%
Keflavik IF—3.00%5.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%14.00%24.00%17.00%2.00%
Grindavik—1.00%8.00%1.00%10.00%26.00%14.00%15.00%22.00%3.00%
Fram Reykjavik2.00%4.00%11.00%25.00%15.00%15.00%18.00%6.00%4.00%—
Valur Reykjavik—1.00%5.00%7.00%8.00%6.00%17.00%27.00%24.00%5.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—————1.00%1.00%1.00%9.00%88.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 100% —
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 100% —
KR Reykjavik 100% —
IF Leiftur 97.00% 3.00%
Fram Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
Keflavik IF 81.00% 19.00%
Breidablik 77.00% 23.00%
Grindavik 75.00% 25.00%
Valur Reykjavik 71.00% 29.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3.00% 97.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1999-05-18 IA Akranes W 1-047.0 1496 1482 44.18% 30.88% 24.94%+0.34 +6.7 3
1999-05-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-147.0 1482 1496 24.94% 30.88% 44.18%-0.34 -6.7 0
1999-05-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-036.9 1336 1357 39.43% 31.56% 29.01%+0.18 +14.2 3
1999-05-20 @ Breidablik L 0-236.9 1357 1336 29.01% 31.56% 39.43%-0.18 -14.2 0
1999-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.1 1359 1406 35.79% 31.79% 32.42%+0.06 -0.2 1
1999-05-20 @ Grindavik D 1-153.1 1406 1359 32.42% 31.79% 35.79%-0.06 +0.2 1
1999-05-20 IF Leiftur W 5-039.2 1521 1442 52.37% 28.66% 18.97%+0.64 +23.3 3
1999-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-539.2 1442 1521 18.97% 28.66% 52.37%-0.64 -23.3 0
1999-05-20 Keflavik IF W 2-151.6 1161 1368 18.04% 28.11% 53.85%-0.70 +11.2 3
1999-05-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-251.6 1368 1161 53.85% 28.11% 18.04%+0.70 -11.2 0
1999-05-24 Keflavik IF W 2-035.2 1406 1357 48.74% 29.81% 21.45%+0.50 +11.1 4
1999-05-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-235.2 1357 1406 21.45% 29.81% 48.74%-0.50 -11.2 0
1999-05-24 Breidablik W 1-040.1 1359 1350 43.49% 31.01% 25.51%+0.31 +6.8 4
1999-05-24 @ Grindavik L 0-140.1 1350 1359 25.51% 31.01% 43.49%-0.31 -6.8 3
1999-05-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-156.2 1475 1172 75.83% 16.31% 7.86%+1.69 -3.4 1
1999-05-24 @ IA Akranes D 1-156.2 1172 1475 7.86% 16.31% 75.83%-1.69 +3.4 4
1999-05-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-052.9 1343 1544 18.50% 28.39% 53.11%-0.67 +1.9 1
1999-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-052.9 1544 1343 53.11% 28.39% 18.50%+0.67 -1.9 4
1999-05-27 Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1343 1417 31.96% 31.77% 36.27%-0.07 +0.2 4
1999-05-27 @ Breidablik D 1-153.0 1417 1343 36.27% 31.77% 31.96%+0.07 -0.2 5
1999-05-27 Grindavik W 2-144.0 1542 1366 63.53% 23.61% 12.86%+1.10 +3.3 7
1999-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.0 1366 1542 12.86% 23.61% 63.53%-1.10 -3.3 4
1999-05-27 IA Akranes W 2-043.4 1346 1472 25.46% 31.00% 43.55%-0.32 +19.0 3
1999-05-27 @ Keflavik IF L 0-243.4 1472 1346 43.55% 31.00% 25.46%+0.32 -19.0 1
1999-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 5-135.6 1503 1345 61.59% 24.62% 13.78%+1.01 +11.2 6
1999-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-535.6 1345 1503 13.78% 24.62% 61.59%-1.01 -11.2 1
1999-05-29 IF Leiftur L 0-328.4 1175 1419 15.57% 26.32% 58.11%-0.87 -11.8 4
1999-05-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-028.4 1419 1175 58.11% 26.32% 15.57%+0.87 +11.8 3
1999-05-31 IA Akranes D 0-051.4 1417 1453 37.28% 31.72% 30.99%+0.10 -0.3 6
1999-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-051.4 1453 1417 30.99% 31.72% 37.28%-0.10 +0.3 2
1999-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-051.6 1344 1545 18.46% 28.37% 53.17%-0.67 +11.7 7
1999-06-01 @ Breidablik L 0-151.6 1545 1344 53.17% 28.37% 18.46%+0.67 -11.7 7
1999-06-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-344.2 1363 1514 22.82% 30.30% 46.88%-0.43 -10.2 4
1999-06-01 @ Grindavik W 3-144.2 1514 1363 46.88% 30.30% 22.82%+0.43 +10.2 9
1999-06-01 Keflavik IF W 1-039.4 1431 1365 50.90% 29.16% 19.94%+0.58 +5.5 6
1999-06-01 @ IF Leiftur L 0-139.4 1365 1431 19.94% 29.16% 50.90%-0.58 -5.5 3
1999-06-01 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1333 1164 62.85% 23.97% 13.18%+1.07 -2.5 2
1999-06-01 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.0 1164 1333 13.18% 23.97% 62.85%-1.07 +2.5 5
1999-06-12 IF Leiftur D 0-052.3 1453 1437 44.56% 30.81% 24.63%+0.35 -1.0 3
1999-06-12 @ IA Akranes D 0-052.3 1437 1453 24.63% 30.81% 44.56%-0.35 +1.0 7
1999-06-12 Fram Reykjavik D 1-159.8 1534 1417 56.97% 26.83% 16.20%+0.82 -2.0 8
1999-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-159.8 1417 1534 16.20% 26.83% 56.97%-0.82 +2.0 7
1999-06-12 Valur Reykjavik D 4-464.1 1359 1331 46.09% 30.48% 23.42%+0.41 -0.6 4
1999-06-12 @ Keflavik IF D 4-464.1 1331 1359 23.42% 30.48% 46.09%-0.41 +0.6 3
1999-06-12 Breidablik D 0-054.0 1524 1355 62.74% 24.02% 13.23%+1.06 -2.8 10
1999-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-054.0 1355 1524 13.23% 24.02% 62.74%-1.06 +2.8 8
1999-06-13 Grindavik D 1-151.5 1166 1352 19.67% 29.02% 51.30%-0.60 +1.5 6
1999-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1352 1166 51.30% 29.02% 19.67%+0.60 -1.5 5
1999-06-19 KR Reykjavik W 2-155.3 1532 1521 43.67% 30.98% 25.35%+0.32 +6.4 11
1999-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-255.3 1521 1532 25.35% 30.98% 43.67%-0.32 -6.4 10
1999-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.4 1358 1168 65.05% 22.77% 12.17%+1.16 -2.7 9
1999-06-20 @ Breidablik D 1-153.4 1168 1358 12.17% 22.77% 65.05%-1.16 +2.7 7
1999-06-20 IF Leiftur W 2-040.1 1419 1438 39.69% 31.53% 28.78%+0.18 +14.1 10
1999-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-240.1 1438 1419 28.78% 31.53% 39.69%-0.18 -14.1 7
1999-06-20 Keflavik IF W 2-036.6 1351 1359 41.23% 31.35% 27.42%+0.24 +13.6 8
1999-06-20 @ Grindavik L 0-236.6 1359 1351 27.42% 31.35% 41.23%-0.24 -13.6 4
1999-06-23 Grindavik W 1-039.1 1452 1364 53.54% 28.23% 18.23%+0.68 +5.1 6
1999-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-139.1 1364 1452 18.23% 28.23% 53.54%-0.68 -5.1 8
1999-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-237.1 1170 1538 9.67% 19.27% 71.06%-1.45 -2.3 7
1999-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-137.1 1538 1170 71.06% 19.27% 9.67%+1.45 +2.3 14
1999-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.8 1423 1331 54.04% 28.04% 17.92%+0.70 -2.0 8
1999-06-24 @ IF Leiftur D 0-049.8 1331 1423 17.92% 28.04% 54.04%-0.70 +2.0 4
1999-06-24 Breidablik W 2-146.1 1345 1355 40.88% 31.40% 27.72%+0.22 +6.9 7
1999-06-24 @ Keflavik IF L 1-246.1 1355 1345 27.72% 31.40% 40.88%-0.22 -6.9 9
1999-06-24 Fram Reykjavik W 3-144.8 1515 1433 52.87% 28.48% 18.65%+0.66 +8.5 13
1999-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-344.8 1433 1515 18.65% 28.48% 52.87%-0.66 -8.5 10
1999-06-27 KR Reykjavik D 1-158.2 1421 1523 28.28% 31.47% 40.25%-0.20 +0.5 9
1999-06-27 @ IF Leiftur D 1-158.2 1523 1421 40.25% 31.47% 28.28%+0.20 -0.5 14
1999-07-04 IF Leiftur L 0-143.9 1359 1422 33.50% 31.81% 34.69%-0.02 -8.3 8
1999-07-04 @ Grindavik W 1-043.9 1422 1359 34.69% 31.81% 33.50%+0.02 +8.3 12
1999-07-04 Keflavik IF W 1-037.8 1540 1352 64.81% 22.91% 12.28%+1.15 +3.3 17
1999-07-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-137.8 1352 1540 12.28% 22.91% 64.81%-1.15 -3.3 7
1999-07-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-128.0 1523 1168 80.01% 13.63% 6.36%+1.93 +3.3 17
1999-07-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-428.0 1168 1523 6.36% 13.63% 80.01%-1.93 -3.3 7
1999-07-05 Valur Reykjavik D 2-259.8 1424 1333 53.90% 28.09% 18.01%+0.70 -1.3 11
1999-07-05 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-259.8 1333 1424 18.01% 28.09% 53.90%-0.70 +1.3 5
1999-07-14 Fram Reykjavik L 0-229.9 1165 1423 14.71% 25.55% 59.74%-0.93 -7.7 7
1999-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-029.9 1423 1165 59.74% 25.55% 14.71%+0.93 +7.6 14
1999-07-15 Breidablik D 2-260.1 1430 1349 52.81% 28.50% 18.69%+0.66 -1.2 13
1999-07-15 @ IF Leiftur D 2-260.1 1349 1430 18.69% 28.50% 52.81%-0.66 +1.2 10
1999-07-15 KR Reykjavik L 1-343.2 1349 1526 20.41% 29.38% 50.21%-0.56 -9.2 7
1999-07-15 @ Keflavik IF W 3-143.2 1526 1349 50.21% 29.38% 20.41%+0.56 +9.2 20
1999-07-15 Grindavik W 2-146.1 1335 1351 40.05% 31.49% 28.45%+0.20 +7.0 8
1999-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-246.1 1351 1335 28.45% 31.49% 40.05%-0.20 -7.0 8
1999-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-160.2 1457 1543 30.29% 31.68% 38.04%-0.13 +0.3 7
1999-07-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-160.2 1543 1457 38.04% 31.68% 30.29%+0.13 -0.3 18
1999-07-21 Breidablik W 2-145.9 1342 1350 41.19% 31.36% 27.45%+0.24 +6.8 11
1999-07-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-245.9 1350 1342 27.45% 31.36% 41.19%-0.24 -6.8 10
1999-07-22 Grindavik L 1-350.2 1431 1344 53.38% 28.29% 18.33%+0.68 -19.2 14
1999-07-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-150.2 1344 1431 18.33% 28.29% 53.38%-0.68 +19.2 11
1999-07-22 KR Reykjavik L 0-245.6 1458 1535 31.40% 31.75% 36.85%-0.09 -15.0 7
1999-07-22 @ IA Akranes W 2-045.6 1535 1458 36.85% 31.75% 31.40%+0.09 +15.0 23
1999-07-22 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-242.8 1339 1157 64.20% 23.25% 12.56%+1.13 +3.0 10
1999-07-22 @ Keflavik IF L 2-342.8 1157 1339 12.56% 23.25% 64.20%-1.13 -3.0 7
1999-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-341.3 1429 1543 26.83% 31.26% 41.91%-0.26 -19.4 13
1999-07-24 @ IF Leiftur W 3-041.3 1543 1429 41.91% 31.26% 26.83%+0.26 +19.4 21
1999-07-26 IA Akranes L 1-248.1 1349 1443 29.26% 31.58% 39.16%-0.17 -7.1 11
1999-07-26 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-148.1 1443 1349 39.16% 31.58% 29.26%+0.17 +7.1 10
1999-07-28 IF Leiftur D 1-160.6 1550 1410 59.68% 25.58% 14.75%+0.93 -2.3 24
1999-07-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-160.6 1410 1550 14.75% 25.58% 59.68%-0.93 +2.3 14
1999-07-29 Grindavik W 4-140.3 1343 1363 39.51% 31.55% 28.94%+0.18 +17.4 13
1999-07-29 @ Breidablik L 1-440.3 1363 1343 28.94% 31.55% 39.51%-0.18 -17.3 11
1999-07-29 Fram Reykjavik W 2-149.4 1342 1411 32.61% 31.79% 35.59%-0.05 +8.2 13
1999-07-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-249.4 1411 1342 35.59% 31.79% 32.61%+0.05 -8.2 14
1999-07-29 IA Akranes L 1-238.2 1154 1450 12.73% 23.45% 63.82%-1.11 -3.2 7
1999-07-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-138.2 1450 1154 63.82% 23.45% 12.73%+1.11 +3.2 13
1999-08-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-030.2 1412 1151 72.04% 18.67% 9.29%+1.49 +2.3 17
1999-08-07 @ IF Leiftur L 0-130.2 1151 1412 9.29% 18.67% 72.04%-1.49 -2.3 7
1999-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-246.6 1346 1563 17.36% 27.68% 54.96%-0.74 -4.6 11
1999-08-08 @ Grindavik W 2-146.6 1563 1346 54.96% 27.68% 17.36%+0.74 +4.6 24
1999-08-08 Keflavik IF D 2-260.9 1453 1351 55.27% 27.55% 17.18%+0.75 -1.4 14
1999-08-08 @ IA Akranes D 2-260.9 1351 1453 17.18% 27.55% 55.27%-0.75 +1.4 14
1999-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-246.4 1341 1548 18.07% 28.14% 53.79%-0.69 -4.8 11
1999-08-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-146.4 1548 1341 53.79% 28.14% 18.07%+0.69 +4.8 27
1999-08-10 Breidablik D 2-259.3 1403 1360 47.95% 30.03% 22.03%+0.47 -0.9 15
1999-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-259.3 1360 1403 22.03% 30.03% 47.95%-0.47 +0.9 14
1999-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 1-041.5 1452 1402 48.80% 29.79% 21.41%+0.50 +5.9 17
1999-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-141.5 1402 1452 21.41% 29.79% 48.80%-0.50 -5.9 15
1999-08-15 Breidablik W 2-143.8 1567 1361 66.63% 21.89% 11.49%+1.24 +2.8 27
1999-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-243.8 1361 1567 11.49% 21.89% 66.63%-1.24 -2.9 14
1999-08-15 IF Leiftur D 2-258.8 1352 1414 33.56% 31.81% 34.63%-0.02 +0.0 15
1999-08-15 @ Keflavik IF D 2-258.8 1414 1352 34.63% 31.81% 33.56%+0.02 -0.0 18
1999-08-15 Grindavik W 2-142.5 1553 1341 67.21% 21.55% 11.24%+1.26 +2.8 30
1999-08-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-242.5 1341 1553 11.24% 21.55% 67.21%-1.26 -2.8 11
1999-08-16 Valur Reykjavik W 5-460.2 1148 1337 19.52% 28.95% 51.53%-0.61 +9.9 10
1999-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 4-560.2 1337 1148 51.53% 28.95% 19.52%+0.61 -9.9 11
1999-08-18 IA Akranes L 1-344.7 1358 1458 28.64% 31.52% 39.85%-0.19 -12.2 14
1999-08-18 @ Breidablik W 3-144.7 1458 1358 39.85% 31.52% 28.64%+0.19 +12.2 20
1999-08-21 KR Reykjavik L 0-335.2 1346 1556 17.88% 28.01% 54.10%-0.71 -13.7 14
1999-08-21 @ Breidablik W 3-035.2 1556 1346 54.10% 28.01% 17.88%+0.71 +13.7 33
1999-08-21 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-258.9 1339 1158 63.97% 23.37% 12.66%+1.12 -1.9 12
1999-08-21 @ Grindavik D 2-258.9 1158 1339 12.66% 23.37% 63.97%-1.12 +1.9 11
1999-08-21 IA Akranes L 1-446.0 1414 1470 34.51% 31.81% 33.67%+0.01 -19.7 18
1999-08-21 @ IF Leiftur W 4-146.0 1470 1414 33.67% 31.81% 34.51%-0.01 +19.6 23
1999-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-240.8 1396 1570 20.75% 29.52% 49.73%-0.54 -10.8 15
1999-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-040.8 1570 1396 49.73% 29.52% 20.75%+0.54 +10.8 30
1999-08-22 Keflavik IF L 2-354.4 1327 1352 38.81% 31.62% 29.58%+0.16 -8.3 11
1999-08-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-254.4 1352 1327 29.58% 31.62% 38.81%-0.16 +8.3 18
1999-08-25 Valur Reykjavik D 2-266.2 1581 1319 72.15% 18.60% 9.25%+1.50 -2.4 31
1999-08-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-266.2 1319 1581 9.25% 18.60% 72.15%-1.50 +2.4 12
1999-08-27 Breidablik W 1-045.3 1160 1333 20.86% 29.57% 49.57%-0.53 +11.1 14
1999-08-27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-145.3 1333 1160 49.57% 29.57% 20.86%+0.53 -11.1 14
1999-08-28 Grindavik L 2-356.3 1360 1337 45.47% 30.62% 23.91%+0.38 -9.3 18
1999-08-28 @ Keflavik IF W 3-256.3 1337 1360 23.91% 30.62% 45.47%-0.38 +9.3 15
1999-08-29 Valur Reykjavik L 0-151.0 1489 1321 62.71% 24.04% 13.25%+1.06 -13.3 23
1999-08-29 @ IA Akranes W 1-051.0 1321 1489 13.25% 24.04% 62.71%-1.06 +13.3 15
1999-08-29 Fram Reykjavik D 3-363.5 1395 1386 43.52% 31.00% 25.48%+0.32 -0.5 19
1999-08-29 @ IF Leiftur D 3-363.5 1386 1395 25.48% 31.00% 43.52%-0.32 +0.5 16
1999-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-047.7 1569 1578 41.06% 31.38% 27.57%+0.23 +19.8 36
1999-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-347.7 1578 1569 27.57% 31.38% 41.06%-0.23 -19.9 31
1999-08-31 Keflavik IF W 2-146.5 1322 1351 38.21% 31.66% 30.12%+0.14 +7.3 17
1999-08-31 @ Breidablik L 1-246.5 1351 1322 30.12% 31.66% 38.21%-0.14 -7.3 18
1999-09-01 KR Reykjavik L 0-240.0 1386 1589 18.34% 28.30% 53.36%-0.68 -9.6 16
1999-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-040.0 1589 1386 53.36% 28.30% 18.34%+0.68 +9.6 39
1999-09-01 IA Akranes D 2-260.3 1346 1476 25.02% 30.90% 44.08%-0.34 +0.7 16
1999-09-01 @ Grindavik D 2-260.3 1476 1346 44.08% 30.90% 25.02%+0.34 -0.7 24
1999-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-022.6 1559 1171 82.36% 12.10% 5.53%+2.08 +3.3 34
1999-09-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-322.6 1171 1559 5.53% 12.10% 82.36%-2.08 -3.3 14
1999-09-02 IF Leiftur L 2-448.8 1334 1394 33.89% 31.81% 34.30%-0.01 -12.3 15
1999-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-248.8 1394 1334 34.30% 31.81% 33.89%+0.01 +12.3 22
1999-09-11 Breidablik L 2-361.1 1475 1329 60.32% 25.26% 14.42%+0.96 -11.5 24
1999-09-11 @ IA Akranes W 3-261.1 1329 1475 14.42% 25.26% 60.32%-0.96 +11.6 20
1999-09-11 Grindavik W 2-144.1 1406 1347 50.09% 29.41% 20.50%+0.55 +5.4 25
1999-09-11 @ IF Leiftur L 1-244.1 1347 1406 20.50% 29.41% 50.09%-0.55 -5.3 16
1999-09-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-158.0 1344 1562 17.26% 27.60% 55.14%-0.75 +1.9 19
1999-09-11 @ Keflavik IF D 1-158.0 1562 1344 55.14% 27.60% 17.26%+0.75 -1.9 35
1999-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.9 1322 1376 34.66% 31.81% 33.53%+0.02 +7.9 18
1999-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-247.9 1376 1322 33.53% 31.81% 34.66%-0.02 -7.9 16
1999-09-11 KR Reykjavik L 0-425.1 1168 1599 7.54% 15.74% 76.72%-1.74 -6.3 14
1999-09-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-025.1 1599 1168 76.72% 15.74% 7.54%+1.74 +6.3 42
1999-09-18 IF Leiftur D 0-048.6 1340 1412 32.28% 31.78% 35.93%-0.06 +0.2 21
1999-09-18 @ Breidablik D 0-048.6 1412 1340 35.93% 31.78% 32.28%+0.06 -0.2 26
1999-09-18 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-242.2 1369 1162 66.73% 21.83% 11.44%+1.24 +2.7 19
1999-09-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-342.2 1162 1369 11.44% 21.83% 66.73%-1.24 -2.7 14
1999-09-18 Valur Reykjavik W 3-141.0 1341 1330 43.85% 30.94% 25.21%+0.33 +11.0 19
1999-09-18 @ Grindavik L 1-341.0 1330 1341 25.21% 30.94% 43.85%-0.33 -11.0 18
1999-09-18 IA Akranes W 2-041.5 1560 1464 54.54% 27.85% 17.62%+0.72 +9.3 38
1999-09-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-241.5 1464 1560 17.62% 27.85% 54.54%-0.72 -9.3 24
1999-09-18 Keflavik IF W 3-248.2 1605 1346 71.89% 18.76% 9.35%+1.49 +2.1 45
1999-09-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-348.2 1346 1605 9.35% 18.76% 71.89%-1.49 -2.1 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1999-08-29 13.25% Valur Reykjavik 1321 1 @ IA Akranes 1489 0
2 1999-09-11 14.42% Breidablik 1329 3 @ IA Akranes 1475 2
3 1999-05-20 18.04% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1161 2 Keflavik IF 1368 1
4 1999-07-22 18.33% Grindavik 1344 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1431 1
5 1999-06-01 18.46% @ Breidablik 1344 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1545 0
6 1999-08-16 19.52% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1148 5 Valur Reykjavik 1337 4
7 1999-08-27 20.86% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1160 1 Breidablik 1333 0
8 1999-08-28 23.91% Grindavik 1337 3 @ Keflavik IF 1360 2
9 1999-05-27 25.46% @ Keflavik IF 1346 2 IA Akranes 1472 0
10 1999-08-22 29.58% Keflavik IF 1352 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1327 2
11 1999-07-29 32.61% @ Keflavik IF 1342 2 Fram Reykjavik 1411 1
12 1999-08-21 33.67% IA Akranes 1470 4 @ IF Leiftur 1414 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-05-20 23.29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1521 52.37% IF Leiftur 0 1442 18.97% 28.66%
2 1999-08-29 19.85 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1569 41.06% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1578 27.57% 31.38%
3 1999-08-21 19.65 IA Akranes 4 1470 33.67% @ IF Leiftur 1 1414 34.51% 31.81%
4 1999-07-24 19.45 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1543 41.91% @ IF Leiftur 0 1429 26.83% 31.26%
5 1999-07-22 19.22 Grindavik 3 1344 18.33% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1431 53.38% 28.29%
6 1999-05-27 18.97 @ Keflavik IF 2 1346 25.46% IA Akranes 0 1472 43.55% 31.00%
7 1999-07-29 17.36 @ Breidablik 4 1343 39.51% Grindavik 1 1363 28.94% 31.55%
8 1999-07-22 15.03 KR Reykjavik 2 1535 36.85% @ IA Akranes 0 1458 31.40% 31.75%
9 1999-05-20 14.20 @ Breidablik 2 1336 39.43% Valur Reykjavik 0 1357 29.01% 31.56%
10 1999-06-20 14.11 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1419 39.69% IF Leiftur 0 1438 28.78% 31.53%
11 1999-08-21 13.66 KR Reykjavik 3 1556 54.10% @ Breidablik 0 1346 17.88% 28.01%
12 1999-06-20 13.61 @ Grindavik 2 1351 41.23% Keflavik IF 0 1359 27.42% 31.35%
13 1999-08-29 13.28 Valur Reykjavik 1 1321 13.25% @ IA Akranes 0 1489 62.71% 24.04%
14 1999-09-02 12.27 IF Leiftur 4 1394 34.30% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1334 33.89% 31.81%
15 1999-08-18 12.18 IA Akranes 3 1458 39.85% @ Breidablik 1 1358 28.64% 31.52%
16 1999-05-29 11.84 IF Leiftur 3 1419 58.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1175 15.57% 26.32%
17 1999-06-01 11.73 @ Breidablik 1 1344 18.46% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1545 53.17% 28.37%
18 1999-09-11 11.55 Breidablik 3 1329 14.42% @ IA Akranes 2 1475 60.32% 25.26%
19 1999-05-27 11.23 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1503 61.59% Valur Reykjavik 1 1345 13.78% 24.62%
20 1999-05-20 11.17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1161 18.04% Keflavik IF 1 1368 53.85% 28.11%
21 1999-05-24 11.15 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1406 48.74% Keflavik IF 0 1357 21.45% 29.81%
22 1999-08-27 11.11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1160 20.86% Breidablik 0 1333 49.57% 29.57%
23 1999-09-18 11.05 @ Grindavik 3 1341 43.85% Valur Reykjavik 1 1330 25.21% 30.94%
24 1999-08-22 10.82 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1570 49.73% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1396 20.75% 29.52%
25 1999-06-01 10.18 KR Reykjavik 3 1514 46.88% @ Grindavik 1 1363 22.82% 30.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-08-25 66.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1581 72.15% Valur Reykjavik 2 1319 9.25% 18.60%
2 1999-06-12 64.1 @ Keflavik IF 4 1359 46.09% Valur Reykjavik 4 1331 23.42% 30.48%
3 1999-08-29 63.5 @ IF Leiftur 3 1395 43.52% Fram Reykjavik 3 1386 25.48% 31.00%
4 1999-09-11 61.1 Breidablik 3 1329 14.42% @ IA Akranes 2 1475 60.32% 25.26%
5 1999-08-08 60.9 @ IA Akranes 2 1453 55.27% Keflavik IF 2 1351 17.18% 27.55%
6 1999-07-28 60.6 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1550 59.68% IF Leiftur 1 1410 14.75% 25.58%
7 1999-09-01 60.3 @ Grindavik 2 1346 25.02% IA Akranes 2 1476 44.08% 30.90%
8 1999-07-16 60.2 @ IA Akranes 1 1457 30.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1543 38.04% 31.68%
9 1999-08-16 60.2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1148 19.52% Valur Reykjavik 4 1337 51.53% 28.95%
10 1999-07-15 60.1 @ IF Leiftur 2 1430 52.81% Breidablik 2 1349 18.69% 28.50%
11 1999-06-12 59.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1534 56.97% Fram Reykjavik 1 1417 16.20% 26.83%
12 1999-07-05 59.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1424 53.90% Valur Reykjavik 2 1333 18.01% 28.09%
13 1999-08-10 59.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1403 47.95% Breidablik 2 1360 22.03% 30.03%
14 1999-08-21 58.9 @ Grindavik 2 1339 63.97% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1158 12.66% 23.37%
15 1999-08-15 58.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 1352 33.56% IF Leiftur 2 1414 34.63% 31.81%
16 1999-06-27 58.2 @ IF Leiftur 1 1421 28.28% KR Reykjavik 1 1523 40.25% 31.47%
17 1999-09-11 58.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1344 17.26% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1562 55.14% 27.60%
18 1999-08-28 56.3 Grindavik 3 1337 23.91% @ Keflavik IF 2 1360 45.47% 30.62%
19 1999-05-24 56.2 @ IA Akranes 1 1475 75.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1172 7.86% 16.31%
20 1999-06-19 55.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1532 43.67% KR Reykjavik 1 1521 25.35% 30.98%
21 1999-08-22 54.4 Keflavik IF 3 1352 29.58% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1327 38.81% 31.62%
22 1999-06-12 54.0 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1524 62.74% Breidablik 0 1355 13.23% 24.02%
23 1999-06-20 53.4 @ Breidablik 1 1358 65.05% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1168 12.17% 22.77%
24 1999-05-20 53.1 @ Grindavik 1 1359 35.79% Fram Reykjavik 1 1406 32.42% 31.79%
25 1999-05-27 53.0 @ Breidablik 1 1343 31.96% Fram Reykjavik 1 1417 36.27% 31.77%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1999-09-01 22.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1559 82.36% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1171 5.53% 12.10%
2 1999-09-11 25.1 KR Reykjavik 4 1599 76.72% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1168 7.54% 15.74%
3 1999-07-04 28.0 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1523 80.01% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1168 6.36% 13.63%
4 1999-05-29 28.4 IF Leiftur 3 1419 58.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1175 15.57% 26.32%
5 1999-07-14 29.9 Fram Reykjavik 2 1423 59.74% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1165 14.71% 25.55%
6 1999-08-07 30.2 @ IF Leiftur 1 1412 72.04% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1151 9.29% 18.67%
7 1999-05-24 35.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1406 48.74% Keflavik IF 0 1357 21.45% 29.81%
8 1999-08-21 35.2 KR Reykjavik 3 1556 54.10% @ Breidablik 0 1346 17.88% 28.01%
9 1999-05-27 35.6 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1503 61.59% Valur Reykjavik 1 1345 13.78% 24.62%
10 1999-06-20 36.6 @ Grindavik 2 1351 41.23% Keflavik IF 0 1359 27.42% 31.35%
11 1999-05-20 36.9 @ Breidablik 2 1336 39.43% Valur Reykjavik 0 1357 29.01% 31.56%
12 1999-06-23 37.1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1538 71.06% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1170 9.67% 19.27%
13 1999-07-04 37.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1540 64.81% Keflavik IF 0 1352 12.28% 22.91%
14 1999-07-29 38.2 IA Akranes 2 1450 63.82% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1154 12.73% 23.45%
15 1999-06-23 39.1 @ IA Akranes 1 1452 53.54% Grindavik 0 1364 18.23% 28.23%
16 1999-05-20 39.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1521 52.37% IF Leiftur 0 1442 18.97% 28.66%
17 1999-06-01 39.4 @ IF Leiftur 1 1431 50.90% Keflavik IF 0 1365 19.94% 29.16%
18 1999-09-01 40.0 KR Reykjavik 2 1589 53.36% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1386 18.34% 28.30%
19 1999-05-24 40.1 @ Grindavik 1 1359 43.49% Breidablik 0 1350 25.51% 31.01%
20 1999-06-20 40.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1419 39.69% IF Leiftur 0 1438 28.78% 31.53%
21 1999-07-29 40.3 @ Breidablik 4 1343 39.51% Grindavik 1 1363 28.94% 31.55%
22 1999-08-22 40.8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1570 49.73% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1396 20.75% 29.52%
23 1999-09-18 41.0 @ Grindavik 3 1341 43.85% Valur Reykjavik 1 1330 25.21% 30.94%
24 1999-07-24 41.3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1543 41.91% @ IF Leiftur 0 1429 26.83% 31.26%
25 1999-08-15 41.5 @ IA Akranes 1 1452 48.80% Fram Reykjavik 0 1402 21.41% 29.79%