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2000 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

37 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1999.0

Relegated

IF Leiftur

16 pts

Stjarnan · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fylkir Reykjavik

8.47 points above expected

35 points · 26.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

4.57 points below expected

17 points · 21.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 11 4 3 37 27 14 +13 33.89 +3.11
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 10 5 3 35 39 16 +23 26.53 +8.47
3 Grindavik 18 8 6 4 30 25 18 +7 23.60 +6.40
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 5 5 29 29 17 +12 32.30 -3.30
5 IA Akranes 18 7 5 6 26 21 17 +4 26.53 -0.53
6 Keflavik IF 18 4 7 7 19 21 35 -14 21.16 -2.16
7 Breidablik 18 5 3 10 18 29 35 -6 20.80 -2.80
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 22 33 -11 21.57 -4.57
9 Stjarnan Relegated 18 4 5 9 17 18 31 -13 17.79 -0.79
10 IF Leiftur Relegated 18 3 7 8 16 24 39 -15 20.40 -4.40

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1529 37 33.89 +3.11 75.2% 15 25 30 34 37 42 52
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1470 29 32.30 -3.30 29.1% 13 24 29 32 36 41 51
Fylkir Reykjavik 1459 35 26.53 +8.47 95.6% 9 18 23 27 30 35 46
IA Akranes 1413 26 26.53 -0.53 50.3% 10 18 23 26 30 35 46
Grindavik 1382 30 23.60 +6.40 90.9% 6 15 20 24 27 32 43
Breidablik 1316 18 20.80 -2.80 33.9% 3 13 17 21 24 30 39
Fram Reykjavik 1288 17 21.57 -4.57 21.9% 4 13 18 21 25 30 43
IF Leiftur 1284 16 20.40 -4.40 22.1% 4 12 17 20 24 29 40
Keflavik IF 1271 19 21.16 -2.16 37.9% 5 13 18 21 25 30 42
Stjarnan 1260 17 17.79 -0.79 49.4% 4 10 14 18 21 26 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI STJ
Breidablik —
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.09
1-0-1
1.50
2-0-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
3.14
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.71
 —
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.57
0-2-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.20
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.34
 —
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.55
Grindavik
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.24
 —
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
1.93
0-2-0
3.15
0-1-1
1.75
0-2-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.34
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
2.99
 —
0-1-1
2.03
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.09
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.73
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.98
1-1-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.33
0-0-2
3.50
1-1-0
3.39
 —
1-1-0
4.03
0-1-1
2.45
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
4.20
IF Leiftur
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.28
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.46
 —
0-1-1
1.34
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.71
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.91
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
4.17
 —
0-0-2
4.03
2-0-0
4.34
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.73
0-2-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.06
0-2-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.07
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
1.46
 —
1-1-0
3.13
Stjarnan
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.92
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
1.73
1-0-1
1.32
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
2.29
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +8.2
Allowed 0.87 -7.6
Differential 0.90 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.56%3.89%1.67%0.56%1.67%28.33%
110.56%8.89%8.33%1.67%1.67%1.67%32.78%
23.89%8.33%6.67%1.67%0.56%1.11%22.22%
31.67%1.67%1.67%3.33%0.56%—8.89%
40.56%1.67%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
5+1.67%1.67%1.11%———4.44%
Total28.33%32.78%22.22%8.89%3.33%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 1.92
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.94 -0.33
SD 1.72 1.55 2.40
CV 1.07 0.80 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
1—11.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%50.00%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.83 -0.61
SD 1.06 1.42 1.75
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%16.67%11.11%———44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.89 +1.28
SD 1.86 0.90 2.11
CV 0.86 1.01 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.00 +0.39
SD 1.20 1.08 1.42
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%———38.89%
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.94 +0.22
SD 1.20 0.80 1.31
CV 1.03 0.85 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.82 0.80 2.03
CV 1.13 0.85 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%———5.56%38.89%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.17 -0.83
SD 1.50 2.01 2.26
CV 1.12 0.93 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
127.78%16.67%5.56%———50.00%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%38.89%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.78 +0.72
SD 1.04 0.88 1.18
CV 0.70 1.13 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
116.67%11.11%11.11%———38.89%
2——11.11%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%33.33%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.94 -0.78
SD 0.99 1.70 1.77
CV 0.84 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
1—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
3———11.11%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.72 -0.72
SD 1.08 1.41 1.60
CV 1.08 0.82 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 35 26.53 +8.47
2 Grindavik 30 23.60 +6.40
3 KR Reykjavik 37 33.89 +3.11
4 IA Akranes 26 26.53 -0.53
5 Stjarnan 17 17.79 -0.79

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 17 21.57 -4.57
2 IF Leiftur 16 20.40 -4.40
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 29 32.30 -3.30
4 Breidablik 18 20.80 -2.80
5 Keflavik IF 19 21.16 -2.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 28 – Jun 6 1 in 19
2 Keflavik IF 2 May 18 – May 21 1 in 18
3 IF Leiftur 2 Sep 10 – Sep 16 1 in 12
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 30 – Aug 28 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 3 May 27 – Jun 6 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 5 May 22 – Jun 10 1 in 54
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 30 – Aug 9 1 in 16
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 26 – Jul 20 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Sep 10 – Sep 16 1 in 13
5 Breidablik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 10 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 9 May 19 – Jul 10 1 in 74
2 Stjarnan 6 Aug 3 – Sep 10 1 in 40
3 Grindavik 7 May 16 – Jun 22 1 in 30
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 12 – Jun 29 1 in 9
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 18 – May 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jun 5 – Jul 10 1 in 27
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 10 – Jun 29 1 in 19
3 IF Leiftur 8 May 18 – Jul 16 1 in 16
4 Fram Reykjavik 7 Jul 30 – Sep 16 1 in 15
5 Keflavik IF 7 Jul 30 – Sep 16 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik48.35%26.31%12.64%6.13%3.45%1.80%0.74%0.35%0.19%0.04%
Fylkir Reykjavik7.88%14.41%18.82%17.25%13.30%9.91%7.65%5.49%3.57%1.72%
Grindavik2.26%5.94%10.96%14.18%15.55%14.71%12.76%10.39%7.91%5.34%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar32.08%31.22%17.26%9.16%4.82%2.93%1.35%0.71%0.39%0.08%
IA Akranes6.47%12.70%17.64%17.93%14.71%11.75%7.79%5.70%3.64%1.67%
Keflavik IF0.71%2.34%5.33%8.28%10.52%13.12%14.92%15.74%15.47%13.57%
Breidablik0.75%2.20%5.03%7.90%11.18%12.65%14.52%15.88%15.78%14.11%
Fram Reykjavik0.94%2.81%6.13%9.00%12.02%13.35%14.66%14.95%14.24%11.90%
Stjarnan0.12%0.51%1.74%3.50%5.04%7.67%10.67%15.03%21.18%34.54%
IF Leiftur0.44%1.56%4.45%6.67%9.41%12.11%14.94%15.76%17.63%17.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Clear Edge
44.44%28.89%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
170 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
48%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.09 * Some Luck: 4.09 to 6.14 * Lucky: 6.14 to 8.19 * Wild Swing: 8.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.4 * Close: 1.4 to 2.1 * Off: 2.1 to 2.8 * Way Off: 2.8 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.75 * Several Surprises: 1.75 to 2.41 * Many Surprises: 2.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.32 points
Some Luck
05.1213
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.30
Pinpoint
01.754
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.59%
Fylkir Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
21.94%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.26
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.70
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.127
Well Within Noise
00.1770.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 99.77% 0.23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 99.53% 0.47%
Fylkir Reykjavik 94.71% 5.29%
IA Akranes 94.69% 5.31%
Grindavik 86.75% 13.25%
Fram Reykjavik 73.86% 26.14%
Keflavik IF 70.96% 29.04%
Breidablik 70.11% 29.89%
IF Leiftur 65.34% 34.66%
Stjarnan 44.28% 55.72%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2000-05-16 Grindavik D 0-0 1276 1330 36.6% 30.6% 32.8% -0.2 1
2000-05-16 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1330 1276 32.8% 30.6% 36.6% +0.2 1
2000-05-18 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1342 1497 23.7% 29.4% 46.8% -6.5 0
2000-05-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1497 1342 46.8% 29.4% 23.7% +6.5 3
2000-05-18 IF Leiftur W 1-0 1397 1366 48.1% 29.2% 22.7% +6.3 3
2000-05-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1366 1397 22.7% 29.2% 48.1% -6.3 0
2000-05-18 Breidablik W 1-0 1324 1323 44.3% 29.9% 25.8% +7.0 3
2000-05-18 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1323 1324 25.8% 29.9% 44.3% -7.0 0
2000-05-19 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1476 1340 60.4% 25.0% 14.7% -1.8 1
2000-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1340 1476 14.7% 25.0% 60.4% +1.8 1
2000-05-21 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1330 1335 43.3% 30.0% 26.6% +19.6 4
2000-05-21 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1335 1330 26.6% 30.0% 43.3% -19.6 0
2000-05-21 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1504 1331 64.2% 23.1% 12.7% -12.4 3
2000-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1331 1504 12.7% 23.1% 64.2% +12.4 6
2000-05-22 IA Akranes L 0-1 1316 1404 31.8% 30.6% 37.6% -8.2 0
2000-05-22 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1404 1316 37.6% 30.6% 31.8% +8.2 6
2000-05-22 IF Leiftur D 1-1 1342 1360 41.6% 30.3% 28.1% -0.6 2
2000-05-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1360 1342 28.1% 30.3% 41.6% +0.6 1
2000-05-22 Stjarnan W 2-0 1474 1276 66.8% 21.7% 11.4% +5.8 4
2000-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1276 1474 11.4% 21.7% 66.8% -5.8 1
2000-05-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1412 1491 32.9% 30.6% 36.5% -15.8 6
2000-05-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1491 1412 36.5% 30.6% 32.9% +15.8 6
2000-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1316 1480 22.8% 29.2% 48.0% +1.2 1
2000-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1480 1316 48.0% 29.2% 22.8% -1.2 5
2000-05-28 Breidablik L 2-6 1360 1308 50.8% 28.5% 20.7% -29.2 1
2000-05-28 @ IF Leiftur W 6-2 1308 1360 20.7% 28.5% 50.8% +29.2 3
2000-05-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1270 1341 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% -8.6 1
2000-05-28 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1341 1270 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% +8.6 5
2000-05-29 Grindavik D 2-2 1344 1350 43.3% 30.0% 26.7% -0.6 7
2000-05-29 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1350 1344 26.7% 30.0% 43.3% +0.6 5
2000-05-31 IF Leiftur W 1-0 1507 1331 64.6% 22.9% 12.5% +3.4 9
2000-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1331 1507 12.5% 22.9% 64.6% -3.4 1
2000-06-01 Breidablik W 5-0 1350 1337 45.8% 29.6% 24.6% +29.6 8
2000-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-5 1337 1350 24.6% 29.6% 45.8% -29.6 3
2000-06-01 IA Akranes W 1-0 1350 1396 37.7% 30.6% 31.7% +8.1 8
2000-06-01 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1396 1350 31.7% 30.6% 37.7% -8.1 6
2000-06-01 Keflavik IF W 5-0 1479 1343 60.4% 25.0% 14.7% +18.2 8
2000-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1343 1479 14.7% 25.0% 60.4% -18.2 7
2000-06-01 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1261 1317 36.4% 30.6% 33.0% -8.5 1
2000-06-01 @ Stjarnan W 2-1 1317 1261 33.0% 30.6% 36.4% +8.5 4
2000-06-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1388 1497 29.0% 30.4% 40.6% +0.6 7
2000-06-05 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1497 1388 40.6% 30.4% 29.0% -0.6 9
2000-06-06 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1307 1511 19.3% 27.9% 52.8% -5.1 3
2000-06-06 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1511 1307 52.8% 27.9% 19.3% +5.1 12
2000-06-06 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1325 1379 36.5% 30.6% 32.8% -8.5 4
2000-06-06 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1379 1325 32.8% 30.6% 36.5% +8.5 11
2000-06-06 Grindavik D 0-0 1328 1358 39.9% 30.4% 29.7% -0.5 2
2000-06-06 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1358 1328 29.7% 30.4% 39.9% +0.5 9
2000-06-06 Stjarnan W 1-0 1325 1253 53.1% 27.8% 19.1% +5.4 10
2000-06-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1253 1325 19.1% 27.8% 53.1% -5.4 1
2000-06-10 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1388 1516 26.8% 30.1% 43.1% +0.8 12
2000-06-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1516 1388 43.1% 30.1% 26.8% -0.8 13
2000-06-10 Breidablik W 3-0 1359 1302 51.3% 28.3% 20.4% +15.6 12
2000-06-10 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1302 1359 20.4% 28.3% 51.3% -15.6 3
2000-06-10 IF Leiftur D 0-0 1497 1327 63.9% 23.3% 12.8% -3.0 10
2000-06-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1327 1497 12.8% 23.3% 63.9% +3.0 3
2000-06-10 IA Akranes L 0-1 1248 1388 25.3% 29.8% 44.9% -6.9 1
2000-06-10 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1388 1248 44.9% 29.8% 25.3% +6.9 10
2000-06-12 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1317 1330 42.2% 30.2% 27.6% -0.8 5
2000-06-12 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1330 1317 27.6% 30.2% 42.2% +0.8 11
2000-06-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1286 1494 19.0% 27.8% 53.2% +22.6 6
2000-06-22 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1494 1286 53.2% 27.8% 19.0% -22.6 10
2000-06-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1395 1316 54.0% 27.5% 18.5% -1.3 11
2000-06-22 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1316 1395 18.5% 27.5% 54.0% +1.3 6
2000-06-22 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1331 1389 36.1% 30.6% 33.3% -0.1 12
2000-06-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1389 1331 33.3% 30.6% 36.1% +0.1 13
2000-06-22 Grindavik D 1-1 1515 1374 60.9% 24.7% 14.4% -2.4 14
2000-06-22 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1374 1515 14.4% 24.7% 60.9% +2.4 13
2000-06-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1471 1513 38.3% 30.5% 31.1% -0.3 11
2000-06-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1513 1471 31.1% 30.5% 38.3% +0.3 15
2000-06-26 IA Akranes L 0-2 1331 1394 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% -16.6 12
2000-06-26 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1394 1331 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% +16.6 14
2000-06-26 Breidablik W 2-1 1241 1309 34.5% 30.6% 34.8% +8.2 4
2000-06-26 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1309 1241 34.8% 30.6% 34.5% -8.2 6
2000-06-27 Grindavik W 2-0 1389 1377 45.6% 29.7% 24.7% +12.7 16
2000-06-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1377 1389 24.7% 29.7% 45.6% -12.7 13
2000-06-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1513 1317 66.5% 21.9% 11.6% -13.4 15
2000-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1317 1513 11.6% 21.9% 66.5% +13.4 9
2000-07-08 Stjarnan W 3-0 1499 1249 71.7% 19.0% 9.3% +6.6 18
2000-07-08 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1249 1499 9.3% 19.0% 71.7% -6.6 4
2000-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1301 1331 40.0% 30.4% 29.6% +7.8 9
2000-07-10 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1331 1301 29.6% 30.4% 40.0% -7.8 9
2000-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1364 1471 29.4% 30.4% 40.2% +9.7 16
2000-07-10 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1471 1364 40.2% 30.4% 29.4% -9.6 11
2000-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1410 1401 45.2% 29.7% 25.0% -10.5 14
2000-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1401 1410 25.0% 29.7% 45.2% +10.5 19
2000-07-13 IF Leiftur W 3-1 1323 1330 43.1% 30.1% 26.8% +11.8 12
2000-07-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1330 1323 26.8% 30.1% 43.1% -11.7 3
2000-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1412 1461 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% -8.2 19
2000-07-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1461 1412 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% +8.2 14
2000-07-16 IA Akranes D 2-2 1318 1400 32.6% 30.6% 36.7% +0.1 4
2000-07-16 @ IF Leiftur D 2-2 1400 1318 36.7% 30.6% 32.6% -0.1 15
2000-07-17 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1309 1314 43.2% 30.1% 26.7% +6.8 12
2000-07-17 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1314 1309 26.7% 30.1% 43.2% -6.8 12
2000-07-17 Stjarnan W 2-0 1374 1242 59.9% 25.2% 14.9% +7.9 19
2000-07-17 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1242 1374 14.9% 25.2% 59.9% -7.9 4
2000-07-20 Keflavik IF W 4-2 1319 1308 45.5% 29.7% 24.8% +9.9 7
2000-07-20 @ IF Leiftur L 2-4 1308 1319 24.8% 29.7% 45.5% -9.9 12
2000-07-22 IA Akranes W 1-0 1469 1400 52.8% 27.9% 19.3% +5.4 17
2000-07-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1400 1469 19.3% 27.9% 52.8% -5.4 15
2000-07-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-7 1328 1404 33.5% 30.6% 35.9% -36.6 7
2000-07-23 @ IF Leiftur W 7-1 1404 1328 35.9% 30.6% 33.5% +36.6 22
2000-07-23 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1298 1506 18.9% 27.7% 53.3% +12.0 15
2000-07-23 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1506 1298 53.3% 27.7% 18.9% -12.0 18
2000-07-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1234 1475 16.6% 26.4% 57.0% +23.9 7
2000-07-23 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1475 1234 57.0% 26.4% 16.6% -23.9 17
2000-07-24 Grindavik W 3-1 1335 1382 37.6% 30.6% 31.9% +13.3 15
2000-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1382 1335 31.9% 30.6% 37.6% -13.3 19
2000-07-25 Breidablik W 3-1 1394 1315 53.9% 27.5% 18.5% +8.5 18
2000-07-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1315 1394 18.5% 27.5% 53.9% -8.5 12
2000-07-30 IF Leiftur W 5-0 1307 1292 46.0% 29.6% 24.4% +29.4 15
2000-07-30 @ Breidablik L 0-5 1292 1307 24.4% 29.6% 46.0% -29.4 7
2000-07-30 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1368 1310 51.5% 28.3% 20.2% -1.7 20
2000-07-30 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1310 1368 20.2% 28.3% 51.5% +1.7 16
2000-07-30 Fram Reykjavik W 6-1 1451 1348 56.7% 26.5% 16.8% +17.3 20
2000-07-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-6 1348 1451 16.8% 26.5% 56.7% -17.3 15
2000-07-30 IA Akranes W 1-0 1494 1403 55.4% 27.0% 17.6% +5.0 21
2000-07-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1403 1494 17.6% 27.0% 55.4% -5.0 18
2000-07-31 Stjarnan W 5-1 1440 1258 65.2% 22.6% 12.2% +10.0 25
2000-07-31 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-5 1258 1440 12.2% 22.6% 65.2% -10.0 7
2000-08-03 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1336 1450 28.4% 30.3% 41.3% +0.7 16
2000-08-03 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1450 1336 41.3% 30.3% 28.4% -0.7 26
2000-08-03 Stjarnan L 1-2 1331 1248 54.4% 27.4% 18.3% -11.5 15
2000-08-03 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1248 1331 18.3% 27.4% 54.4% +11.5 10
2000-08-03 Grindavik W 2-1 1398 1367 48.1% 29.2% 22.7% +5.9 21
2000-08-03 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1367 1398 22.7% 29.2% 48.1% -5.9 20
2000-08-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1312 1468 23.7% 29.4% 46.9% -6.1 16
2000-08-03 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1468 1312 46.9% 29.4% 23.7% +6.1 23
2000-08-09 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1450 1319 59.8% 25.2% 15.0% +4.2 29
2000-08-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1319 1450 15.0% 25.2% 59.8% -4.2 15
2000-08-09 IF Leiftur D 2-2 1361 1262 56.2% 26.7% 17.1% -1.5 21
2000-08-09 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1262 1361 17.1% 26.7% 56.2% +1.5 8
2000-08-09 Breidablik W 3-2 1499 1337 63.1% 23.6% 13.2% +3.3 24
2000-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1337 1499 13.2% 23.6% 63.1% -3.3 16
2000-08-09 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1260 1305 37.8% 30.6% 31.7% -0.3 11
2000-08-09 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1305 1260 31.7% 30.6% 37.8% +0.3 17
2000-08-13 Stjarnan D 3-3 1264 1260 44.6% 29.8% 25.5% -0.6 9
2000-08-13 @ IF Leiftur D 3-3 1260 1264 25.5% 29.8% 44.6% +0.6 12
2000-08-20 Stjarnan D 0-0 1404 1260 61.2% 24.6% 14.2% -2.7 22
2000-08-20 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1260 1404 14.2% 24.6% 61.2% +2.7 13
2000-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1263 1474 18.8% 27.6% 53.6% -5.3 9
2000-08-20 @ IF Leiftur W 1-0 1474 1263 53.6% 27.6% 18.8% +5.3 26
2000-08-20 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1306 1315 42.8% 30.1% 27.1% -0.5 18
2000-08-20 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1315 1306 27.1% 30.1% 42.8% +0.5 16
2000-08-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1502 1454 50.2% 28.6% 21.1% +5.6 27
2000-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1454 1502 21.1% 28.6% 50.2% -5.6 29
2000-08-22 Grindavik L 3-4 1334 1359 40.6% 30.4% 29.1% -8.5 16
2000-08-22 @ Breidablik W 4-3 1359 1334 29.1% 30.4% 40.6% +8.5 24
2000-08-24 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1258 1508 16.0% 25.9% 58.1% +2.4 10
2000-08-24 @ IF Leiftur D 0-0 1508 1258 58.1% 25.9% 16.0% -2.4 28
2000-08-27 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1448 1305 61.1% 24.6% 14.2% +14.3 32
2000-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 1305 1448 14.2% 24.6% 61.1% -14.3 18
2000-08-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1368 1505 25.7% 29.9% 44.5% -6.9 24
2000-08-27 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1505 1368 44.5% 29.9% 25.7% +6.9 31
2000-08-27 IF Leiftur W 2-1 1263 1260 44.4% 29.9% 25.8% +6.6 16
2000-08-27 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1260 1263 25.8% 29.9% 44.4% -6.6 10
2000-08-28 IA Akranes L 1-4 1316 1401 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% -19.0 16
2000-08-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1401 1316 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% +19.0 25
2000-08-28 Breidablik W 4-1 1479 1325 62.3% 24.1% 13.6% +8.8 29
2000-08-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 1325 1479 13.6% 24.1% 62.3% -8.8 16
2000-09-10 Stjarnan D 3-3 1316 1269 50.1% 28.7% 21.2% -0.9 17
2000-09-10 @ Breidablik D 3-3 1269 1316 21.2% 28.7% 50.1% +0.9 17
2000-09-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1361 1463 29.9% 30.4% 39.6% +9.0 27
2000-09-10 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1463 1361 39.6% 30.4% 29.9% -9.0 32
2000-09-10 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1420 1291 59.6% 25.3% 15.1% -1.7 26
2000-09-10 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1291 1420 15.1% 25.3% 59.6% +1.7 19
2000-09-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1254 1297 38.2% 30.6% 31.3% +7.6 13
2000-09-10 @ IF Leiftur L 1-2 1297 1254 31.3% 30.6% 38.2% -7.6 16
2000-09-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1512 1488 47.2% 29.4% 23.4% +6.5 34
2000-09-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1488 1512 23.4% 29.4% 47.2% -6.4 29
2000-09-16 Breidablik D 1-1 1289 1316 40.4% 30.4% 29.2% -0.5 17
2000-09-16 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1316 1289 29.2% 30.4% 40.4% +0.5 18
2000-09-16 IA Akranes W 2-1 1454 1418 48.6% 29.0% 22.3% +5.8 35
2000-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1418 1454 22.3% 29.0% 48.6% -5.8 26
2000-09-16 Grindavik L 1-2 1482 1370 57.7% 26.1% 16.2% -12.1 29
2000-09-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1370 1482 16.2% 26.1% 57.7% +12.1 30
2000-09-16 IF Leiftur L 2-5 1293 1262 48.1% 29.2% 22.7% -22.1 19
2000-09-16 @ Keflavik IF W 5-2 1262 1293 22.7% 29.2% 48.1% +22.1 16
2000-09-16 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1270 1519 16.0% 26.0% 58.0% -10.4 17
2000-09-16 @ Stjarnan W 4-1 1519 1270 58.0% 26.0% 16.0% +10.4 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-06-29 11.58% Fram Reykjavik 1317 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1513 1
2 2000-05-21 12.68% Keflavik IF 1331 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1504 2
3 2000-09-16 16.17% Grindavik 1370 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1482 1
4 2000-07-23 16.59% @ Stjarnan 1234 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1475 0
5 2000-08-03 18.28% Stjarnan 1248 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1331 1
6 2000-07-23 18.95% @ Keflavik IF 1298 1 KR Reykjavik 1506 0
7 2000-06-22 19.04% @ Breidablik 1286 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1494 0
8 2000-05-28 20.72% Breidablik 1308 6 @ IF Leiftur 1360 2
9 2000-09-16 22.73% IF Leiftur 1262 5 @ Keflavik IF 1293 2
10 2000-07-10 25.03% Fylkir Reykjavik 1401 1 @ IA Akranes 1410 0
11 2000-08-22 29.07% Grindavik 1359 4 @ Breidablik 1334 3
12 2000-07-10 29.36% @ Grindavik 1364 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1471 0
13 2000-09-10 29.94% @ Grindavik 1361 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1463 1
14 2000-07-16 32.12% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1461 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1412 2
15 2000-06-06 32.83% Fylkir Reykjavik 1379 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1325 1
16 2000-06-01 33.02% Fram Reykjavik 1317 2 @ Stjarnan 1261 1
17 2000-06-26 34.06% IA Akranes 1394 2 @ Keflavik IF 1331 0
18 2000-06-26 34.50% @ Stjarnan 1241 2 Breidablik 1309 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-07-23 36.60 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 1404 35.87% @ IF Leiftur 1 1328 33.50% 30.63%
2 2000-06-01 29.59 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 1350 45.75% Breidablik 0 1337 24.60% 29.65%
3 2000-07-30 29.37 @ Breidablik 5 1307 46.02% IF Leiftur 0 1292 24.38% 29.60%
4 2000-05-28 29.25 Breidablik 6 1308 20.72% @ IF Leiftur 2 1360 50.80% 28.48%
5 2000-07-23 23.90 @ Stjarnan 2 1234 16.59% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1475 57.04% 26.37%
6 2000-06-22 22.62 @ Breidablik 2 1286 19.04% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1494 53.21% 27.75%
7 2000-09-16 22.14 IF Leiftur 5 1262 22.73% @ Keflavik IF 2 1293 48.11% 29.16%
8 2000-05-21 19.57 @ Grindavik 3 1330 43.33% Fram Reykjavik 0 1335 26.63% 30.04%
9 2000-08-28 18.98 IA Akranes 4 1401 37.31% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1316 32.10% 30.59%
10 2000-06-01 18.15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1479 60.35% Keflavik IF 0 1343 14.68% 24.97%
11 2000-07-30 17.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1451 56.67% Fram Reykjavik 1 1348 16.81% 26.52%
12 2000-06-26 16.57 IA Akranes 2 1394 34.06% @ Keflavik IF 0 1331 35.30% 30.64%
13 2000-05-27 15.78 KR Reykjavik 2 1491 36.46% @ IA Akranes 0 1412 32.92% 30.62%
14 2000-06-10 15.63 @ Grindavik 3 1359 51.27% Breidablik 0 1302 20.38% 28.35%
15 2000-08-27 14.26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1448 61.13% Keflavik IF 0 1305 14.25% 24.61%
16 2000-06-29 13.41 Fram Reykjavik 2 1317 11.58% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1513 66.51% 21.91%
17 2000-07-24 13.34 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1335 37.58% Grindavik 1 1382 31.85% 30.58%
18 2000-06-27 12.69 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1389 45.62% Grindavik 0 1377 24.71% 29.67%
19 2000-05-21 12.40 Keflavik IF 3 1331 12.68% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1504 64.20% 23.12%
20 2000-09-16 12.07 Grindavik 2 1370 16.17% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1482 57.74% 26.09%
21 2000-07-23 12.02 @ Keflavik IF 1 1298 18.95% KR Reykjavik 0 1506 53.34% 27.71%
22 2000-07-13 11.75 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1323 43.08% IF Leiftur 1 1330 26.84% 30.08%
23 2000-08-03 11.50 Stjarnan 2 1248 18.28% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1331 54.35% 27.37%
24 2000-07-10 10.55 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1401 25.03% @ IA Akranes 0 1410 45.23% 29.74%
25 2000-09-16 10.44 KR Reykjavik 4 1519 57.97% @ Stjarnan 1 1270 16.03% 26.00%