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2000 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

37 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1999.0

Relegated

IF Leiftur

16 pts

Stjarnan · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fylkir Reykjavik

7.89 points above expected

35 points · 27.11 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

4.70 points below expected

17 points · 21.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 11 4 3 37 27 14 +13 33.38 +3.62
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 10 5 3 35 39 16 +23 27.11 +7.89
3 Grindavik 18 8 6 4 30 25 18 +7 23.59 +6.41
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 8 5 5 29 29 17 +12 31.61 -2.61
5 IA Akranes 18 7 5 6 26 21 17 +4 26.82 -0.82
6 Keflavik IF 18 4 7 7 19 21 35 -14 21.36 -2.36
7 Breidablik 18 5 3 10 18 29 35 -6 20.94 -2.94
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 22 33 -11 21.70 -4.70
9 Stjarnan Relegated 18 4 5 9 17 18 31 -13 18.09 -1.09
10 IF Leiftur Relegated 18 3 7 8 16 24 39 -15 19.44 -3.44

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 35 27.11 +7.89
2 Grindavik 30 23.59 +6.41
3 KR Reykjavik 37 33.38 +3.62
4 IA Akranes 26 26.82 -0.82
5 Stjarnan 17 18.09 -1.09

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 17 21.70 -4.70
2 IF Leiftur 16 19.44 -3.44
3 Breidablik 18 20.94 -2.94
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 29 31.61 -2.61
5 Keflavik IF 19 21.36 -2.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 28 – Jun 6 1 in 19
2 Keflavik IF 2 May 18 – May 21 1 in 18
3 IF Leiftur 2 Sep 10 – Sep 16 1 in 12
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 30 – Aug 28 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 3 May 27 – Jun 6 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 5 May 22 – Jun 10 1 in 55
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 30 – Aug 9 1 in 16
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 26 – Jul 20 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Sep 10 – Sep 16 1 in 13
5 Breidablik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 10 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 9 May 19 – Jul 10 1 in 74
2 Stjarnan 6 Aug 3 – Sep 10 1 in 40
3 Grindavik 7 May 16 – Jun 22 1 in 30
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 12 – Jun 29 1 in 9
5 Keflavik IF 3 May 18 – May 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jun 5 – Jul 10 1 in 27
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 10 – Jun 29 1 in 19
3 IF Leiftur 8 May 18 – Jul 16 1 in 16
4 Fram Reykjavik 7 Jul 30 – Sep 16 1 in 15
5 Keflavik IF 7 Jul 30 – Sep 16 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KR Reykjavik 1524 37 +27 13 9.1 +3.9
Fylkir Reykjavik 1455 35 +10 9 8.3 +0.7
Grindavik 1377 30 +21 10 6.1 +3.9
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1465 29 +2 9 8.7 +0.3
IA Akranes 1408 26 +15 8 8.2 -0.2
Keflavik IF 1266 19 -35 3 5.9 -2.9
Breidablik 1311 18 -21 2 5.8 -3.8
Stjarnan 1256 17 +0 6 5.0 +1.0
Fram Reykjavik 1284 17 -31 2 5.8 -3.8
IF Leiftur 1279 16 +20 7 5.1 +1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR FR GRI IA IV IL KR KI STJ
Breidablik —
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.09
1-0-1
1.50
2-0-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
3.13
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.71
 —
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.57
0-2-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.19
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.34
 —
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.12
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.03
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.54
Grindavik
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.24
 —
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
1.93
0-2-0
3.15
0-1-1
1.75
0-2-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.33
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.99
 —
0-1-1
2.03
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.09
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.72
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.98
1-1-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.33
0-0-2
3.51
1-1-0
3.39
 —
1-1-0
4.04
0-1-1
2.45
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
4.19
IF Leiftur
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.45
0-2-0
2.28
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.46
 —
0-1-1
1.34
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.70
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.91
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
4.17
 —
0-0-2
4.04
2-0-0
4.34
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.73
0-2-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.06
0-2-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.07
0-0-2
1.69
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
1.46
 —
1-1-0
3.12
Stjarnan
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
2.11
0-1-1
1.73
1-0-1
1.33
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
2.30
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +8.2
Allowed 0.87 -7.6
Differential 0.90 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.56%3.89%1.67%0.56%1.67%28.33%
110.56%8.89%8.33%1.67%1.67%1.67%32.78%
23.89%8.33%6.67%1.67%0.56%1.11%22.22%
31.67%1.67%1.67%3.33%0.56%—8.89%
40.56%1.67%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
5+1.67%1.67%1.11%———4.44%
Total28.33%32.78%22.22%8.89%3.33%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.42 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 1.92
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.94 -0.33
SD 1.72 1.55 2.40
CV 1.07 0.80 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
1—11.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%50.00%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.83 -0.61
SD 1.06 1.42 1.75
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%16.67%11.11%———44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.89 +1.28
SD 1.86 0.90 2.11
CV 0.86 1.01 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.00 +0.39
SD 1.20 1.08 1.42
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%5.56%———38.89%
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.94 +0.22
SD 1.20 0.80 1.31
CV 1.03 0.85 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.82 0.80 2.03
CV 1.13 0.85 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%———5.56%38.89%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.17 -0.83
SD 1.50 2.01 2.26
CV 1.12 0.93 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
127.78%16.67%5.56%———50.00%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%38.89%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.78 +0.72
SD 1.04 0.88 1.18
CV 0.70 1.13 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
116.67%11.11%11.11%———38.89%
2——11.11%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%33.33%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.94 -0.78
SD 0.99 1.70 1.77
CV 0.84 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
1—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
3———11.11%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.72 -0.72
SD 1.08 1.41 1.60
CV 1.08 0.82 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1524 37 33.38 +3.62 83.0% 23 26 30 33 36 42 50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1465 29 31.61 -2.61 31.0% 19 23 28 32 35 39 44
Fylkir Reykjavik 1455 35 27.11 +7.89 93.0% 17 19 23 26 31 36 38
IA Akranes 1408 26 26.82 -0.82 51.0% 15 19 23 26 29 36 40
Grindavik 1377 30 23.59 +6.41 92.0% 12 14 20 24 27 31 36
Breidablik 1311 18 20.94 -2.94 32.0% 8 12 17 21 25 29 32
Fram Reykjavik 1284 17 21.70 -4.70 22.0% 11 14 18 21 25 30 35
IF Leiftur 1279 16 19.44 -3.44 26.0% 7 12 16 19 23 27 31
Keflavik IF 1266 19 21.36 -2.36 41.0% 11 15 18 21 24 30 36
Stjarnan 1256 17 18.09 -1.09 51.0% 5 10 14 17 21 27 29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Strong Edge
44.44%28.89%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
170 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.01 * Some Luck: 4.01 to 6.01 * Lucky: 6.01 to 8.02 * Wild Swing: 8.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.37 * Close: 1.37 to 2.06 * Off: 2.06 to 2.74 * Way Off: 2.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.04 * A Surprise: 1.04 to 1.66 * Several Surprises: 1.66 to 2.29 * Many Surprises: 2.29 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.16 points
Some Luck
05.0113
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.724
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
22.00%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 96.68
1.47
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.68
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.127
Well Within Noise
00.1810.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik40.00%31.00%16.00%10.00%1.00%—1.00%1.00%——
Fylkir Reykjavik15.00%14.00%12.00%13.00%21.00%7.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%—
Grindavik2.00%4.00%15.00%13.00%18.00%15.00%13.00%4.00%8.00%8.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar32.00%27.00%19.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%—2.00%——
IA Akranes7.00%13.00%18.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%11.00%5.00%1.00%3.00%
Keflavik IF2.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%25.00%19.00%6.00%
Breidablik—3.00%5.00%12.00%10.00%19.00%9.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%
Fram Reykjavik2.00%4.00%4.00%11.00%8.00%16.00%16.00%12.00%19.00%8.00%
Stjarnan——4.00%3.00%7.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%15.00%35.00%
IF Leiftur—2.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%17.00%20.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 100% —
KR Reykjavik 100% —
Fylkir Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
IA Akranes 96.00% 4.00%
Grindavik 84.00% 16.00%
Keflavik IF 75.00% 25.00%
Fram Reykjavik 73.00% 27.00%
Breidablik 70.00% 30.00%
IF Leiftur 54.00% 46.00%
Stjarnan 50.00% 50.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2000-05-16 Grindavik D 0-047.3 1272 1325 36.78% 30.61% 32.61%+0.06 -0.2 1
2000-05-16 @ Stjarnan D 0-047.3 1325 1272 32.61% 30.61% 36.78%-0.06 +0.2 1
2000-05-18 KR Reykjavik L 0-142.8 1337 1492 23.74% 29.44% 46.81%-0.55 -6.5 0
2000-05-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-042.8 1492 1337 46.81% 29.44% 23.74%+0.55 +6.5 3
2000-05-18 IF Leiftur W 1-040.7 1392 1361 48.12% 29.16% 22.72%+0.55 +6.3 3
2000-05-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-140.7 1361 1392 22.72% 29.16% 48.12%-0.55 -6.3 0
2000-05-18 Breidablik W 1-040.4 1319 1318 44.27% 29.90% 25.83%+0.38 +7.0 3
2000-05-18 @ Keflavik IF L 0-140.4 1318 1319 25.83% 29.90% 44.27%-0.38 -7.0 0
2000-05-19 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-260.8 1471 1336 60.33% 24.98% 14.69%+1.17 -1.8 1
2000-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-260.8 1336 1471 14.69% 24.98% 60.33%-1.17 +1.8 1
2000-05-21 Fram Reykjavik W 3-035.7 1325 1330 43.32% 30.05% 26.63%+0.34 +19.6 4
2000-05-21 @ Grindavik L 0-335.7 1330 1325 26.63% 30.05% 43.32%-0.34 -19.6 0
2000-05-21 Keflavik IF L 2-362.1 1499 1326 64.21% 23.12% 12.68%+1.38 -12.4 3
2000-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-262.1 1326 1499 12.68% 23.12% 64.21%-1.38 +12.4 6
2000-05-22 IA Akranes L 0-143.2 1311 1399 31.77% 30.57% 37.66%-0.15 -8.2 0
2000-05-22 @ Breidablik W 1-043.2 1399 1311 37.66% 30.57% 31.77%+0.15 +8.2 6
2000-05-22 IF Leiftur D 1-152.4 1338 1355 41.70% 30.25% 28.05%+0.27 -0.6 2
2000-05-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.4 1355 1338 28.05% 30.25% 41.70%-0.27 +0.6 1
2000-05-22 Stjarnan W 2-031.8 1470 1272 66.71% 21.80% 11.49%+1.53 +5.9 4
2000-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-231.8 1272 1470 11.49% 21.80% 66.71%-1.53 -5.8 1
2000-05-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-244.6 1407 1486 32.93% 30.62% 36.45%-0.10 -15.8 6
2000-05-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-044.6 1486 1407 36.45% 30.62% 32.93%+0.10 +15.8 6
2000-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-154.2 1311 1475 22.82% 29.19% 47.99%-0.60 +1.2 1
2000-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-154.2 1475 1311 47.99% 29.19% 22.82%+0.60 -1.2 5
2000-05-28 Breidablik L 2-647.6 1355 1302 50.82% 28.48% 20.71%+0.68 -29.2 1
2000-05-28 @ IF Leiftur W 6-247.6 1302 1355 20.71% 28.48% 50.82%-0.68 +29.3 3
2000-05-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-142.9 1266 1337 34.18% 30.64% 35.18%-0.05 -8.6 1
2000-05-28 @ Stjarnan W 1-042.9 1337 1266 35.18% 30.64% 34.18%+0.05 +8.6 5
2000-05-29 Grindavik D 2-257.2 1339 1345 43.26% 30.05% 26.69%+0.33 -0.6 7
2000-05-29 @ Keflavik IF D 2-257.2 1345 1339 26.69% 30.05% 43.26%-0.33 +0.6 5
2000-05-31 IF Leiftur W 1-037.4 1502 1326 64.57% 22.93% 12.50%+1.41 +3.4 9
2000-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-137.4 1326 1502 12.50% 22.93% 64.57%-1.41 -3.4 1
2000-06-01 Breidablik W 5-034.8 1345 1332 45.85% 29.63% 24.52%+0.45 +29.5 8
2000-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-534.8 1332 1345 24.52% 29.63% 45.85%-0.45 -29.5 3
2000-06-01 IA Akranes W 1-043.6 1345 1391 37.71% 30.57% 31.72%+0.10 +8.1 8
2000-06-01 @ Grindavik L 0-143.6 1391 1345 31.72% 30.57% 37.71%-0.10 -8.1 6
2000-06-01 Keflavik IF W 5-032.7 1474 1338 60.38% 24.96% 14.66%+1.17 +18.1 8
2000-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-532.7 1338 1474 14.66% 24.96% 60.38%-1.17 -18.1 7
2000-06-01 Fram Reykjavik L 1-248.1 1258 1312 36.52% 30.61% 32.86%+0.05 -8.5 1
2000-06-01 @ Stjarnan W 2-148.1 1312 1258 32.86% 30.61% 36.52%-0.05 +8.5 4
2000-06-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-052.1 1383 1492 29.00% 30.36% 40.64%-0.28 +0.6 7
2000-06-05 @ IA Akranes D 0-052.1 1492 1383 40.64% 30.36% 29.00%+0.28 -0.6 9
2000-06-06 KR Reykjavik L 1-245.2 1302 1506 19.33% 27.89% 52.77%-0.83 -5.1 3
2000-06-06 @ Breidablik W 2-145.2 1506 1302 52.77% 27.89% 19.33%+0.83 +5.1 12
2000-06-06 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-249.1 1320 1375 36.49% 30.62% 32.90%+0.05 -8.5 4
2000-06-06 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-149.1 1375 1320 32.90% 30.62% 36.49%-0.05 +8.5 11
2000-06-06 Grindavik D 0-048.1 1323 1353 39.87% 30.43% 29.70%+0.19 -0.5 2
2000-06-06 @ IF Leiftur D 0-048.1 1353 1323 29.70% 30.43% 39.87%-0.19 +0.5 9
2000-06-06 Stjarnan W 1-037.3 1320 1249 52.99% 27.82% 19.18%+0.79 +5.4 10
2000-06-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.3 1249 1320 19.18% 27.82% 52.99%-0.79 -5.4 1
2000-06-10 KR Reykjavik D 1-156.8 1383 1511 26.83% 30.08% 43.09%-0.38 +0.8 12
2000-06-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-156.8 1511 1383 43.09% 30.08% 26.83%+0.38 -0.8 13
2000-06-10 Breidablik W 3-033.3 1354 1297 51.28% 28.34% 20.38%+0.70 +15.6 12
2000-06-10 @ Grindavik L 0-333.3 1297 1354 20.38% 28.34% 51.28%-0.70 -15.6 3
2000-06-10 IF Leiftur D 0-052.6 1492 1322 63.90% 23.27% 12.83%+1.37 -3.0 10
2000-06-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-052.6 1322 1492 12.83% 23.27% 63.90%-1.37 +3.0 3
2000-06-10 IA Akranes L 0-140.2 1244 1384 25.42% 29.82% 44.76%-0.46 -6.9 1
2000-06-10 @ Stjarnan W 1-040.2 1384 1244 44.76% 29.82% 25.42%+0.46 +6.9 10
2000-06-12 Keflavik IF D 0-047.8 1312 1325 42.22% 30.19% 27.59%+0.29 -0.8 5
2000-06-12 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-047.8 1325 1312 27.59% 30.19% 42.22%-0.29 +0.8 11
2000-06-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-046.7 1281 1489 19.02% 27.75% 53.23%-0.85 +22.6 6
2000-06-22 @ Breidablik L 0-246.7 1489 1281 53.23% 27.75% 19.02%+0.85 -22.6 10
2000-06-22 Fram Reykjavik D 2-258.2 1390 1311 53.98% 27.50% 18.52%+0.83 -1.3 11
2000-06-22 @ IA Akranes D 2-258.2 1311 1390 18.52% 27.50% 53.98%-0.83 +1.3 6
2000-06-22 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.5 1326 1384 35.99% 30.63% 33.38%+0.03 -0.1 12
2000-06-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.5 1384 1326 33.38% 30.63% 35.99%-0.03 +0.1 13
2000-06-22 Grindavik D 1-158.0 1510 1369 60.87% 24.73% 14.40%+1.20 -2.4 14
2000-06-22 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-158.0 1369 1510 14.40% 24.73% 60.87%-1.20 +2.4 13
2000-06-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-159.5 1466 1508 38.34% 30.54% 31.12%+0.12 -0.3 11
2000-06-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-159.5 1508 1466 31.12% 30.54% 38.34%-0.12 +0.3 15
2000-06-26 IA Akranes L 0-241.2 1326 1389 35.28% 30.64% 34.08%+0.00 -16.6 12
2000-06-26 @ Keflavik IF W 2-041.2 1389 1326 34.08% 30.64% 35.28%+0.00 +16.6 14
2000-06-26 Breidablik W 2-147.4 1237 1304 34.67% 30.64% 34.69%-0.03 +8.2 4
2000-06-26 @ Stjarnan L 1-247.4 1304 1237 34.69% 30.64% 34.67%+0.03 -8.2 6
2000-06-27 Grindavik W 2-038.4 1384 1372 45.69% 29.66% 24.65%+0.44 +12.7 16
2000-06-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-238.4 1372 1384 24.65% 29.66% 45.69%-0.44 -12.7 13
2000-06-29 Fram Reykjavik L 1-257.8 1508 1313 66.51% 21.91% 11.58%+1.52 -13.4 15
2000-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-157.8 1313 1508 11.58% 21.91% 66.51%-1.52 +13.4 9
2000-07-08 Stjarnan W 3-028.3 1495 1245 71.62% 19.03% 9.35%+1.84 +6.6 18
2000-07-08 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-328.3 1245 1495 9.35% 19.03% 71.62%-1.84 -6.6 4
2000-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 1-041.6 1296 1326 39.95% 30.42% 29.63%+0.19 +7.8 9
2000-07-10 @ Breidablik L 0-141.6 1326 1296 29.63% 30.42% 39.95%-0.19 -7.8 9
2000-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-047.9 1359 1466 29.34% 30.40% 40.26%-0.26 +9.7 16
2000-07-10 @ Grindavik L 0-147.9 1466 1359 40.26% 30.40% 29.34%+0.26 -9.7 11
2000-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-148.6 1406 1397 45.18% 29.75% 25.07%+0.42 -10.5 14
2000-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 1-048.6 1397 1406 25.07% 29.75% 45.18%-0.42 +10.5 19
2000-07-13 IF Leiftur W 3-142.6 1318 1325 43.09% 30.08% 26.83%+0.33 +11.7 12
2000-07-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-342.6 1325 1318 26.83% 30.08% 43.09%-0.33 -11.7 3
2000-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-357.4 1408 1456 37.34% 30.59% 32.08%+0.08 -8.2 19
2000-07-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-257.4 1456 1408 32.08% 30.59% 37.34%-0.08 +8.2 14
2000-07-16 IA Akranes D 2-257.4 1313 1395 32.64% 30.61% 36.76%-0.11 +0.1 4
2000-07-16 @ IF Leiftur D 2-257.4 1395 1313 36.76% 30.61% 32.64%+0.11 -0.1 15
2000-07-17 Keflavik IF W 2-145.2 1304 1310 43.25% 30.06% 26.70%+0.33 +6.8 12
2000-07-17 @ Breidablik L 1-245.2 1310 1304 26.70% 30.06% 43.25%-0.33 -6.8 12
2000-07-17 Stjarnan W 2-032.4 1369 1238 59.77% 25.23% 15.00%+1.14 +8.0 19
2000-07-17 @ Grindavik L 0-232.4 1238 1369 15.00% 25.23% 59.77%-1.14 -8.0 4
2000-07-20 Keflavik IF W 4-245.4 1314 1303 45.46% 29.70% 24.83%+0.43 +9.9 7
2000-07-20 @ IF Leiftur L 2-445.4 1303 1314 24.83% 29.70% 45.46%-0.43 -9.9 12
2000-07-22 IA Akranes W 1-041.8 1464 1395 52.80% 27.88% 19.31%+0.78 +5.4 17
2000-07-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-141.8 1395 1464 19.31% 27.88% 52.80%-0.78 -5.4 15
2000-07-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-741.0 1323 1399 33.44% 30.63% 35.93%-0.08 -36.5 7
2000-07-23 @ IF Leiftur W 7-141.0 1399 1323 35.93% 30.63% 33.44%+0.08 +36.5 22
2000-07-23 KR Reykjavik W 1-050.3 1293 1501 18.95% 27.71% 53.35%-0.86 +12.0 15
2000-07-23 @ Keflavik IF L 0-150.3 1501 1293 53.35% 27.71% 18.95%+0.86 -12.0 18
2000-07-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-046.2 1230 1470 16.65% 26.41% 56.94%-1.04 +23.9 7
2000-07-23 @ Stjarnan L 0-246.2 1470 1230 56.94% 26.41% 16.65%+1.04 -23.9 17
2000-07-24 Grindavik W 3-145.0 1330 1377 37.58% 30.58% 31.84%+0.09 +13.3 15
2000-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-345.0 1377 1330 31.84% 30.58% 37.58%-0.09 -13.3 19
2000-07-25 Breidablik W 3-139.9 1390 1310 53.97% 27.50% 18.53%+0.83 +8.5 18
2000-07-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-339.9 1310 1390 18.53% 27.50% 53.97%-0.83 -8.5 12
2000-07-30 IF Leiftur W 5-034.0 1302 1287 46.01% 29.60% 24.39%+0.46 +29.4 15
2000-07-30 @ Breidablik L 0-534.0 1287 1302 24.39% 29.60% 46.01%-0.46 -29.4 7
2000-07-30 Keflavik IF D 0-048.6 1363 1305 51.50% 28.28% 20.22%+0.71 -1.7 20
2000-07-30 @ Grindavik D 0-048.6 1305 1363 20.22% 28.28% 51.50%-0.71 +1.7 16
2000-07-30 Fram Reykjavik W 6-136.2 1446 1343 56.68% 26.51% 16.80%+0.97 +17.3 20
2000-07-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-636.2 1343 1446 16.80% 26.51% 56.68%-0.97 -17.3 15
2000-07-30 IA Akranes W 1-041.8 1489 1398 55.36% 27.01% 17.63%+0.90 +5.0 21
2000-07-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-141.8 1398 1489 17.63% 27.01% 55.36%-0.90 -5.0 18
2000-07-31 Stjarnan W 5-132.6 1436 1254 65.13% 22.64% 12.23%+1.44 +10.0 25
2000-07-31 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-532.6 1254 1436 12.23% 22.64% 65.13%-1.44 -10.0 7
2000-08-03 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-049.7 1331 1446 28.35% 30.29% 41.36%-0.31 +0.7 16
2000-08-03 @ Breidablik D 0-049.7 1446 1331 41.36% 30.29% 28.35%+0.31 -0.7 26
2000-08-03 Stjarnan L 1-252.4 1326 1244 54.25% 27.40% 18.34%+0.85 -11.5 15
2000-08-03 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-152.4 1244 1326 18.34% 27.40% 54.25%-0.85 +11.5 10
2000-08-03 Grindavik W 2-145.5 1393 1362 48.13% 29.16% 22.71%+0.55 +5.9 21
2000-08-03 @ IA Akranes L 1-245.5 1362 1393 22.71% 29.16% 48.13%-0.55 -5.9 20
2000-08-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-246.1 1307 1463 23.64% 29.42% 46.94%-0.55 -6.1 16
2000-08-03 @ Keflavik IF W 2-146.1 1463 1307 46.94% 29.42% 23.64%+0.55 +6.1 23
2000-08-09 Fram Reykjavik W 1-037.3 1445 1314 59.81% 25.21% 14.98%+1.14 +4.2 29
2000-08-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-137.3 1314 1445 14.98% 25.21% 59.81%-1.14 -4.2 15
2000-08-09 IF Leiftur D 2-257.6 1356 1258 56.18% 26.70% 17.11%+0.95 -1.5 21
2000-08-09 @ Grindavik D 2-257.6 1258 1356 17.11% 26.70% 56.18%-0.95 +1.5 8
2000-08-09 Breidablik W 3-247.0 1494 1332 63.14% 23.65% 13.21%+1.32 +3.3 24
2000-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-347.0 1332 1494 13.21% 23.65% 63.14%-1.32 -3.3 16
2000-08-09 Keflavik IF D 1-151.1 1256 1301 37.89% 30.56% 31.55%+0.10 -0.3 11
2000-08-09 @ Stjarnan D 1-151.1 1301 1256 31.55% 30.56% 37.89%-0.10 +0.3 17
2000-08-13 Stjarnan D 3-359.8 1259 1256 44.49% 29.87% 25.64%+0.39 -0.6 9
2000-08-13 @ IF Leiftur D 3-359.8 1256 1259 25.64% 29.87% 44.49%-0.39 +0.5 12
2000-08-20 Stjarnan D 0-049.6 1399 1256 61.12% 24.62% 14.26%+1.21 -2.7 22
2000-08-20 @ IA Akranes D 0-049.6 1256 1399 14.26% 24.62% 61.12%-1.21 +2.7 13
2000-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-138.6 1258 1469 18.74% 27.61% 53.66%-0.87 -5.3 9
2000-08-20 @ IF Leiftur W 1-038.6 1469 1258 53.66% 27.61% 18.74%+0.87 +5.3 26
2000-08-20 Fram Reykjavik D 3-360.3 1301 1310 42.77% 30.12% 27.11%+0.31 -0.5 18
2000-08-20 @ Keflavik IF D 3-360.3 1310 1301 27.11% 30.12% 42.77%-0.31 +0.5 16
2000-08-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-150.1 1497 1449 50.20% 28.64% 21.15%+0.65 +5.6 27
2000-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-250.1 1449 1497 21.15% 28.64% 50.20%-0.65 -5.6 29
2000-08-22 Grindavik L 3-457.5 1329 1354 40.55% 30.37% 29.08%+0.22 -8.5 16
2000-08-22 @ Breidablik W 4-357.5 1354 1329 29.08% 30.37% 40.55%-0.22 +8.5 24
2000-08-24 KR Reykjavik D 0-050.6 1253 1503 15.95% 25.94% 58.12%-1.10 +2.4 10
2000-08-24 @ IF Leiftur D 0-050.6 1503 1253 58.12% 25.94% 15.95%+1.10 -2.4 28
2000-08-27 Keflavik IF W 4-030.8 1444 1300 61.18% 24.59% 14.23%+1.21 +14.2 32
2000-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-430.8 1300 1444 14.23% 24.59% 61.18%-1.21 -14.2 18
2000-08-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-144.4 1363 1501 25.65% 29.87% 44.49%-0.44 -6.9 24
2000-08-27 @ Grindavik W 1-044.4 1501 1363 44.49% 29.87% 25.65%+0.44 +6.9 31
2000-08-27 IF Leiftur W 2-144.3 1259 1256 44.46% 29.87% 25.66%+0.39 +6.6 16
2000-08-27 @ Stjarnan L 1-244.3 1256 1259 25.66% 29.87% 44.46%-0.39 -6.5 10
2000-08-28 IA Akranes L 1-442.6 1311 1396 32.10% 30.59% 37.32%-0.14 -19.0 16
2000-08-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-142.6 1396 1311 37.32% 30.59% 32.10%+0.14 +19.0 25
2000-08-28 Breidablik W 4-136.7 1475 1320 62.33% 24.04% 13.62%+1.28 +8.8 29
2000-08-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-436.7 1320 1475 13.62% 24.04% 62.33%-1.28 -8.8 16
2000-09-10 Stjarnan D 3-360.5 1311 1265 49.97% 28.71% 21.32%+0.64 -0.9 17
2000-09-10 @ Breidablik D 3-360.5 1265 1311 21.32% 28.71% 49.97%-0.64 +0.9 17
2000-09-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-152.2 1356 1458 29.90% 30.45% 39.65%-0.23 +9.0 27
2000-09-10 @ Grindavik L 1-252.2 1458 1356 39.65% 30.45% 29.90%+0.23 -9.0 32
2000-09-10 Keflavik IF D 2-258.9 1415 1286 59.63% 25.29% 15.08%+1.13 -1.7 26
2000-09-10 @ IA Akranes D 2-258.9 1286 1415 15.08% 25.29% 59.63%-1.13 +1.7 19
2000-09-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.3 1249 1292 38.17% 30.55% 31.28%+0.12 +7.6 13
2000-09-10 @ IF Leiftur L 1-246.3 1292 1249 31.28% 30.55% 38.17%-0.12 -7.6 16
2000-09-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-047.9 1507 1483 47.19% 29.36% 23.44%+0.51 +6.5 34
2000-09-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-147.9 1483 1507 23.44% 29.36% 47.19%-0.51 -6.5 29
2000-09-16 Breidablik D 1-151.4 1284 1311 40.44% 30.38% 29.18%+0.21 -0.5 17
2000-09-16 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.4 1311 1284 29.18% 30.38% 40.44%-0.21 +0.5 18
2000-09-16 IA Akranes W 2-147.8 1449 1414 48.65% 29.04% 22.32%+0.58 +5.8 35
2000-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-247.8 1414 1449 22.32% 29.04% 48.65%-0.58 -5.8 26
2000-09-16 Grindavik L 1-257.0 1477 1365 57.75% 26.09% 16.16%+1.03 -12.1 29
2000-09-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-157.0 1365 1477 16.16% 26.09% 57.75%-1.03 +12.1 30
2000-09-16 IF Leiftur L 2-548.5 1288 1257 48.10% 29.17% 22.73%+0.55 -22.1 19
2000-09-16 @ Keflavik IF W 5-248.5 1257 1288 22.73% 29.17% 48.10%-0.55 +22.1 16
2000-09-16 KR Reykjavik L 1-437.7 1266 1514 16.08% 26.03% 57.88%-1.09 -10.5 17
2000-09-16 @ Stjarnan W 4-137.7 1514 1266 57.88% 26.03% 16.08%+1.09 +10.5 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-06-29 11.58% Fram Reykjavik 1313 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1508 1
2 2000-05-21 12.68% Keflavik IF 1326 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1499 2
3 2000-09-16 16.16% Grindavik 1365 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1477 1
4 2000-07-23 16.65% @ Stjarnan 1230 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1470 0
5 2000-08-03 18.34% Stjarnan 1244 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1326 1
6 2000-07-23 18.95% @ Keflavik IF 1293 1 KR Reykjavik 1501 0
7 2000-06-22 19.02% @ Breidablik 1281 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1489 0
8 2000-05-28 20.71% Breidablik 1302 6 @ IF Leiftur 1355 2
9 2000-09-16 22.73% IF Leiftur 1257 5 @ Keflavik IF 1288 2
10 2000-07-10 25.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 1397 1 @ IA Akranes 1406 0
11 2000-08-22 29.08% Grindavik 1354 4 @ Breidablik 1329 3
12 2000-07-10 29.34% @ Grindavik 1359 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1466 0
13 2000-09-10 29.90% @ Grindavik 1356 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1458 1
14 2000-07-16 32.08% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1456 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1408 2
15 2000-06-01 32.86% Fram Reykjavik 1312 2 @ Stjarnan 1258 1
16 2000-06-06 32.90% Fylkir Reykjavik 1375 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1320 1
17 2000-06-26 34.08% IA Akranes 1389 2 @ Keflavik IF 1326 0
18 2000-06-26 34.67% @ Stjarnan 1237 2 Breidablik 1304 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-07-23 36.54 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 1399 35.93% @ IF Leiftur 1 1323 33.44% 30.63%
2 2000-06-01 29.51 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 1345 45.85% Breidablik 0 1332 24.52% 29.63%
3 2000-07-30 29.38 @ Breidablik 5 1302 46.01% IF Leiftur 0 1287 24.39% 29.60%
4 2000-05-28 29.26 Breidablik 6 1302 20.71% @ IF Leiftur 2 1355 50.82% 28.48%
5 2000-07-23 23.87 @ Stjarnan 2 1230 16.65% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1470 56.94% 26.41%
6 2000-06-22 22.62 @ Breidablik 2 1281 19.02% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1489 53.23% 27.75%
7 2000-09-16 22.14 IF Leiftur 5 1257 22.73% @ Keflavik IF 2 1288 48.10% 29.17%
8 2000-05-21 19.58 @ Grindavik 3 1325 43.32% Fram Reykjavik 0 1330 26.63% 30.05%
9 2000-08-28 18.98 IA Akranes 4 1396 37.32% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1311 32.10% 30.59%
10 2000-06-01 18.13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1474 60.38% Keflavik IF 0 1338 14.66% 24.96%
11 2000-07-30 17.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1446 56.68% Fram Reykjavik 1 1343 16.80% 26.51%
12 2000-06-26 16.56 IA Akranes 2 1389 34.08% @ Keflavik IF 0 1326 35.28% 30.64%
13 2000-05-27 15.78 KR Reykjavik 2 1486 36.45% @ IA Akranes 0 1407 32.93% 30.62%
14 2000-06-10 15.64 @ Grindavik 3 1354 51.28% Breidablik 0 1297 20.38% 28.34%
15 2000-08-27 14.23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1444 61.18% Keflavik IF 0 1300 14.23% 24.59%
16 2000-06-29 13.41 Fram Reykjavik 2 1313 11.58% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1508 66.51% 21.91%
17 2000-07-24 13.35 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1330 37.58% Grindavik 1 1377 31.84% 30.58%
18 2000-06-27 12.68 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1384 45.69% Grindavik 0 1372 24.65% 29.66%
19 2000-05-21 12.40 Keflavik IF 3 1326 12.68% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1499 64.21% 23.12%
20 2000-09-16 12.06 Grindavik 2 1365 16.16% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1477 57.75% 26.09%
21 2000-07-23 12.02 @ Keflavik IF 1 1293 18.95% KR Reykjavik 0 1501 53.35% 27.71%
22 2000-07-13 11.74 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1318 43.09% IF Leiftur 1 1325 26.83% 30.08%
23 2000-08-03 11.49 Stjarnan 2 1244 18.34% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1326 54.25% 27.40%
24 2000-07-10 10.54 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1397 25.07% @ IA Akranes 0 1406 45.18% 29.75%
25 2000-09-16 10.47 KR Reykjavik 4 1514 57.88% @ Stjarnan 1 1266 16.08% 26.03%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-05-21 62.1 Keflavik IF 3 1326 12.68% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1499 64.21% 23.12%
2 2000-05-19 60.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1471 60.33% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1336 14.69% 24.98%
3 2000-09-10 60.5 @ Breidablik 3 1311 49.97% Stjarnan 3 1265 21.32% 28.71%
4 2000-08-20 60.3 @ Keflavik IF 3 1301 42.77% Fram Reykjavik 3 1310 27.11% 30.12%
5 2000-08-13 59.8 @ IF Leiftur 3 1259 44.49% Stjarnan 3 1256 25.64% 29.87%
6 2000-06-25 59.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1466 38.34% KR Reykjavik 1 1508 31.12% 30.54%
7 2000-09-10 58.9 @ IA Akranes 2 1415 59.63% Keflavik IF 2 1286 15.08% 25.29%
8 2000-06-22 58.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1390 53.98% Fram Reykjavik 2 1311 18.52% 27.50%
9 2000-06-22 58.0 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1510 60.87% Grindavik 1 1369 14.40% 24.73%
10 2000-06-29 57.8 Fram Reykjavik 2 1313 11.58% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1508 66.51% 21.91%
11 2000-08-09 57.6 @ Grindavik 2 1356 56.18% IF Leiftur 2 1258 17.11% 26.70%
12 2000-08-22 57.5 Grindavik 4 1354 29.08% @ Breidablik 3 1329 40.55% 30.37%
13 2000-07-16 57.4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1456 32.08% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1408 37.34% 30.59%
14 2000-07-16 57.4 @ IF Leiftur 2 1313 32.64% IA Akranes 2 1395 36.76% 30.61%
15 2000-05-29 57.2 @ Keflavik IF 2 1339 43.26% Grindavik 2 1345 26.69% 30.05%
16 2000-09-16 57.0 Grindavik 2 1365 16.16% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1477 57.75% 26.09%
17 2000-06-10 56.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1383 26.83% KR Reykjavik 1 1511 43.09% 30.08%
18 2000-05-28 54.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1311 22.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1475 47.99% 29.19%
19 2000-06-10 52.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1492 63.90% IF Leiftur 0 1322 12.83% 23.27%
20 2000-06-22 52.5 @ Keflavik IF 1 1326 35.99% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1384 33.38% 30.63%
21 2000-05-22 52.4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1338 41.70% IF Leiftur 1 1355 28.05% 30.25%
22 2000-08-03 52.4 Stjarnan 2 1244 18.34% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1326 54.25% 27.40%
23 2000-09-10 52.2 @ Grindavik 2 1356 29.90% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1458 39.65% 30.45%
24 2000-06-05 52.1 @ IA Akranes 0 1383 29.00% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1492 40.64% 30.36%
25 2000-09-16 51.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1284 40.44% Breidablik 1 1311 29.18% 30.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-07-08 28.3 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1495 71.62% Stjarnan 0 1245 9.35% 19.03%
2 2000-08-27 30.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1444 61.18% Keflavik IF 0 1300 14.23% 24.59%
3 2000-05-22 31.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1470 66.71% Stjarnan 0 1272 11.49% 21.80%
4 2000-07-17 32.4 @ Grindavik 2 1369 59.77% Stjarnan 0 1238 15.00% 25.23%
5 2000-07-31 32.6 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 1436 65.13% Stjarnan 1 1254 12.23% 22.64%
6 2000-06-01 32.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1474 60.38% Keflavik IF 0 1338 14.66% 24.96%
7 2000-06-10 33.3 @ Grindavik 3 1354 51.28% Breidablik 0 1297 20.38% 28.34%
8 2000-07-30 34.0 @ Breidablik 5 1302 46.01% IF Leiftur 0 1287 24.39% 29.60%
9 2000-06-01 34.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 5 1345 45.85% Breidablik 0 1332 24.52% 29.63%
10 2000-05-21 35.7 @ Grindavik 3 1325 43.32% Fram Reykjavik 0 1330 26.63% 30.05%
11 2000-07-30 36.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 1446 56.68% Fram Reykjavik 1 1343 16.80% 26.51%
12 2000-08-28 36.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1475 62.33% Breidablik 1 1320 13.62% 24.04%
13 2000-06-06 37.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1320 52.99% Stjarnan 0 1249 19.18% 27.82%
14 2000-08-09 37.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1445 59.81% Fram Reykjavik 0 1314 14.98% 25.21%
15 2000-05-31 37.4 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1502 64.57% IF Leiftur 0 1326 12.50% 22.93%
16 2000-09-16 37.7 KR Reykjavik 4 1514 57.88% @ Stjarnan 1 1266 16.08% 26.03%
17 2000-06-27 38.4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1384 45.69% Grindavik 0 1372 24.65% 29.66%
18 2000-08-20 38.6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1469 53.66% @ IF Leiftur 0 1258 18.74% 27.61%
19 2000-07-25 39.9 @ IA Akranes 3 1390 53.97% Breidablik 1 1310 18.53% 27.50%
20 2000-06-10 40.2 IA Akranes 1 1384 44.76% @ Stjarnan 0 1244 25.42% 29.82%
21 2000-05-18 40.4 @ Keflavik IF 1 1319 44.27% Breidablik 0 1318 25.83% 29.90%
22 2000-05-18 40.7 @ IA Akranes 1 1392 48.12% IF Leiftur 0 1361 22.72% 29.16%
23 2000-07-23 41.0 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 1399 35.93% @ IF Leiftur 1 1323 33.44% 30.63%
24 2000-06-26 41.2 IA Akranes 2 1389 34.08% @ Keflavik IF 0 1326 35.28% 30.64%
25 2000-07-10 41.6 @ Breidablik 1 1296 39.95% Fram Reykjavik 0 1326 29.63% 30.42%