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2001 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

36 points · 15th Title

Last Title: 1996.0

Relegated

Breidablik

14 pts

Valur Reykjavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

7.67 points above expected

36 points · 28.33 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

6.87 points below expected

14 points · 20.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 11 3 4 36 29 16 +13 28.33 +7.67
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 11 3 4 36 23 15 +8 29.34 +6.66
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 5 4 32 23 16 +7 25.05 +6.95
4 Grindavik 18 9 0 9 27 27 29 -2 25.62 +1.38
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 7 4 7 25 26 23 +3 30.05 -5.05
6 Keflavik IF 18 6 5 7 23 27 30 -3 22.24 +0.76
7 KR Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 22 16 20 -4 28.30 -6.30
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 6 2 10 20 28 28 0 20.09 -0.09
9 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 4 9 19 19 26 -7 23.12 -4.12
10 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 2 12 14 17 32 -15 20.87 -6.87

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 36 28.33 +7.67
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 32 25.05 +6.95
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 36 29.34 +6.66
4 Grindavik 27 25.62 +1.38
5 Keflavik IF 23 22.24 +0.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Breidablik 14 20.87 -6.87
2 KR Reykjavik 22 28.30 -6.30
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 25 30.05 -5.05
4 Valur Reykjavik 19 23.12 -4.12
5 Fram Reykjavik 20 20.09 -0.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 137
2 IA Akranes 6 Jul 15 – Aug 27 1 in 59
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Aug 12 – Sep 16 1 in 47
4 Grindavik 3 May 27 – Jun 20 1 in 13
5 Keflavik IF 2 May 17 – May 20 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 13 – Sep 22 1 in 1,996
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 17 – Jun 18 1 in 50
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 48
4 Breidablik 5 Jul 2 – Aug 2 1 in 44
5 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 26 – Aug 20 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 10 May 27 – Aug 1 1 in 50
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jul 29 – Sep 9 1 in 21
3 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 19
4 IA Akranes 7 Jul 10 – Aug 27 1 in 13
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Aug 12 – Sep 23 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 13 – Sep 22 1 in 90
2 Breidablik 10 May 27 – Aug 2 1 in 63
3 Valur Reykjavik 8 Jul 26 – Sep 22 1 in 29
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 29 – Aug 19 1 in 10
5 Keflavik IF 5 Jul 9 – Aug 12 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1404 36 +44 13 8.4 +4.6
IA Akranes 1397 36 +3 10 8.2 +1.8
FH Hafnarfjordur 1347 32 +20 10 7.6 +2.4
Grindavik 1315 27 +24 9 5.8 +3.2
Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 25 -85 0 7.9 -7.9
Keflavik IF 1266 23 -3 7 6.7 +0.3
KR Reykjavik 1339 22 +34 11 7.9 +3.1
Fram Reykjavik 1306 20 +25 7 6.2 +0.8
Valur Reykjavik 1256 19 -20 2 6.5 -4.5
Breidablik 1222 14 -15 4 5.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR GRI IA IV KR KI VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
2.31
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
2.16
0-2-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.49
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
3.33
 —
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.48
2-0-0
2.41
0-1-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.07
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.40
 —
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.35
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.55
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.69
0-1-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.80
 —
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
3.67
1-1-0
3.54
Grindavik
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.12
 —
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.80
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.85
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.71
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.62
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
3.38
 —
0-2-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.29
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.22
0-2-0
2.80
 —
2-0-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.48
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.52
0-0-2
3.21
2-0-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
2.79
 —
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
3.31
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.02
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
1.97
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
2.38
 —
0-2-0
2.71
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.35
0-0-2
2.15
1-1-0
2.32
0-2-0
2.92
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.23 +7.5
Allowed 0.68 -9.5
Differential 0.87 +8.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%9.44%9.44%2.78%1.11%—30.56%
19.44%4.44%8.33%5.00%——27.22%
29.44%8.33%5.56%2.22%2.22%—27.78%
32.78%5.00%2.22%——0.56%10.56%
41.11%—2.22%———3.33%
5+———0.56%——0.56%
Total30.56%27.22%27.78%10.56%3.33%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.14 1.63
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%5.56%22.22%5.56%——50.00%
2—5.56%—5.56%11.11%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.78 -0.83
SD 0.73 1.31 1.25
CV 0.77 0.74 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%22.22%11.11%———44.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.89 +0.39
SD 0.96 0.90 1.33
CV 0.75 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.78%————27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%50.00%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.10 1.46
CV 0.89 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.28 +0.17
SD 1.50 1.23 2.09
CV 1.04 0.96 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.61 -0.11
SD 1.25 1.20 2.11
CV 0.83 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
222.22%—11.11%———33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.89 +0.72
SD 1.04 1.02 1.53
CV 0.64 1.15 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
127.78%——11.11%——38.89%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total61.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.83 +0.44
SD 0.96 1.29 1.76
CV 0.75 1.55 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
216.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.11 -0.22
SD 0.90 1.18 1.48
CV 1.01 1.06 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%22.22%———33.33%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total—50.00%44.44%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.29 0.97 1.47
CV 0.86 0.58 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%———38.89%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%55.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.44 -0.39
SD 1.21 0.92 1.38
CV 1.15 0.64 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1404 36 29.34 +6.66 90.0% 17 20 25 30 33 39 44
IA Akranes 1397 36 28.33 +7.67 95.0% 16 20 25 29 32 36 41
FH Hafnarfjordur 1347 32 25.05 +6.95 91.0% 12 15 22 26 28 33 36
Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 25 30.05 -5.05 19.0% 16 21 26 30 34 38 41
KR Reykjavik 1339 22 28.30 -6.30 12.0% 15 18 25 28 32 38 44
Grindavik 1315 27 25.62 +1.38 62.0% 13 15 21 26 30 35 41
Fram Reykjavik 1306 20 20.09 -0.09 53.0% 10 11 16 20 24 28 31
Keflavik IF 1266 23 22.24 +0.76 54.0% 10 12 18 22 26 31 36
Valur Reykjavik 1256 19 23.12 -4.12 29.0% 10 12 18 23 27 34 37
Breidablik 1222 14 20.87 -6.87 11.0% 5 10 18 21 24 30 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
48.89%17.78%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.
231 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
IA Akranes, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.48 * Some Luck: 4.48 to 6.72 * Lucky: 6.72 to 8.96 * Wild Swing: 8.96 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.73 * Close: 1.73 to 2.59 * Off: 2.59 to 3.45 * Way Off: 3.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.17 * A Surprise: 1.17 to 1.87 * Several Surprises: 1.87 to 2.57 * Many Surprises: 2.57 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.32 points
Some Luck
05.6014
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
02.165
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
Breidablik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 59.01
1.26
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
74%
Even
50%75%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
8%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.23
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%31%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.95
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes15.00%17.00%15.00%17.00%7.00%7.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar21.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%7.00%6.00%13.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur3.00%12.00%11.00%15.00%10.00%13.00%6.00%18.00%2.00%10.00%
Grindavik9.00%7.00%13.00%12.00%13.00%7.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%11.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik24.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%9.00%14.00%3.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%
Keflavik IF2.00%2.00%10.00%7.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%12.00%22.00%13.00%
KR Reykjavik21.00%10.00%10.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Fram Reykjavik—1.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%17.00%26.00%
Valur Reykjavik4.00%6.00%3.00%10.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%16.00%
Breidablik1.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%9.00%17.00%14.00%21.00%19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 97.00% 3.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 95.00% 5.00%
KR Reykjavik 94.00% 6.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 88.00% 12.00%
Grindavik 82.00% 18.00%
Valur Reykjavik 66.00% 34.00%
Keflavik IF 65.00% 35.00%
Breidablik 60.00% 40.00%
Fram Reykjavik 57.00% 43.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2001-05-15 KR Reykjavik W 1-042.0 1356 1378 45.18% 18.81% 36.01%+0.14 +7.1 3
2001-05-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-142.0 1378 1356 36.01% 18.81% 45.18%-0.14 -7.1 0
2001-05-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-264.2 1335 1302 52.49% 18.55% 28.96%+0.38 -0.8 1
2001-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 2-264.2 1302 1335 28.96% 18.55% 52.49%-0.38 +0.8 1
2001-05-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.1 1292 1362 38.31% 18.84% 42.84%-0.07 +8.2 3
2001-05-17 @ Breidablik L 0-143.1 1362 1292 42.84% 18.84% 38.31%+0.07 -8.2 0
2001-05-17 Keflavik IF L 1-251.7 1319 1273 54.16% 18.45% 27.39%+0.44 -9.5 0
2001-05-17 @ Grindavik W 2-151.7 1273 1319 27.39% 18.45% 54.16%-0.44 +9.5 3
2001-05-17 Valur Reykjavik L 2-354.5 1281 1295 46.28% 18.79% 34.93%+0.18 -7.8 0
2001-05-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-254.5 1295 1281 34.93% 18.79% 46.28%-0.18 +7.8 3
2001-05-20 Fram Reykjavik W 1-038.5 1300 1274 51.67% 18.59% 29.74%+0.35 +6.1 6
2001-05-20 @ Breidablik L 0-138.5 1274 1300 29.74% 18.59% 51.67%-0.35 -6.1 0
2001-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-149.2 1283 1363 36.94% 18.83% 44.24%-0.11 +8.0 6
2001-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-249.2 1363 1283 44.24% 18.83% 36.94%+0.11 -8.0 3
2001-05-20 Grindavik W 1-040.0 1303 1310 47.28% 18.76% 33.95%+0.21 +6.8 6
2001-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-140.0 1310 1303 33.95% 18.76% 47.28%-0.21 -6.8 0
2001-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-053.6 1354 1302 54.81% 18.40% 26.79%+0.46 -1.3 1
2001-05-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-053.6 1302 1354 26.79% 18.40% 54.81%-0.46 +1.3 2
2001-05-21 IA Akranes W 2-145.1 1371 1334 52.96% 18.52% 28.52%+0.40 +5.5 3
2001-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-245.1 1334 1371 28.52% 18.52% 52.96%-0.40 -5.5 1
2001-05-27 Breidablik W 2-145.7 1303 1306 47.78% 18.75% 33.47%+0.22 +6.3 3
2001-05-27 @ Grindavik L 1-245.7 1306 1303 33.47% 18.75% 47.78%-0.22 -6.3 6
2001-05-27 Keflavik IF W 2-033.1 1328 1291 53.10% 18.51% 28.39%+0.40 +11.0 4
2001-05-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-233.1 1291 1328 28.39% 18.51% 53.10%-0.40 -11.0 6
2001-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-038.2 1304 1376 38.04% 18.84% 43.12%-0.08 +15.6 5
2001-05-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-238.2 1376 1304 43.12% 18.84% 38.04%+0.08 -15.6 3
2001-05-27 Valur Reykjavik D 0-053.7 1355 1310 53.97% 18.46% 27.57%+0.43 -1.3 4
2001-05-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-053.7 1310 1355 27.57% 18.46% 53.97%-0.43 +1.3 7
2001-05-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-140.8 1268 1353 36.27% 18.82% 44.92%-0.13 -7.2 0
2001-05-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.8 1353 1268 44.92% 18.82% 36.27%+0.13 +7.2 4
2001-06-09 Grindavik L 1-247.8 1260 1309 41.35% 18.85% 39.80%+0.02 -7.5 0
2001-06-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.8 1309 1260 39.80% 18.85% 41.35%-0.02 +7.5 6
2001-06-09 KR Reykjavik W 1-040.9 1360 1360 48.10% 18.74% 33.16%+0.23 +6.7 7
2001-06-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-140.9 1360 1360 33.16% 18.74% 48.10%-0.23 -6.7 3
2001-06-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-142.0 1280 1319 42.68% 18.84% 38.47%+0.06 +12.3 9
2001-06-10 @ Keflavik IF L 1-342.0 1319 1280 38.47% 18.84% 42.68%-0.06 -12.3 5
2001-06-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-237.2 1300 1354 40.68% 18.85% 40.47%+0.00 -14.9 6
2001-06-10 @ Breidablik W 2-037.2 1354 1300 40.47% 18.85% 40.68%+0.00 +14.9 7
2001-06-11 IA Akranes L 0-238.2 1311 1339 44.34% 18.83% 36.83%+0.11 -15.9 7
2001-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-038.2 1339 1311 36.83% 18.83% 44.34%-0.11 +16.0 7
2001-06-18 Breidablik W 3-138.0 1355 1285 57.02% 18.24% 24.74%+0.54 +8.4 10
2001-06-18 @ IA Akranes L 1-338.0 1285 1355 24.74% 18.24% 57.02%-0.54 -8.4 6
2001-06-18 Fram Reykjavik W 4-240.2 1368 1253 62.00% 17.73% 20.27%+0.74 +6.3 10
2001-06-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-440.2 1253 1368 20.27% 17.73% 62.00%-0.74 -6.3 0
2001-06-18 Keflavik IF W 2-032.4 1354 1292 56.05% 18.31% 25.64%+0.50 +10.0 6
2001-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-232.4 1292 1354 25.64% 18.31% 56.05%-0.50 -10.0 9
2001-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 1-039.2 1307 1295 49.73% 18.68% 31.59%+0.29 +6.4 8
2001-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-139.2 1295 1307 31.59% 18.68% 49.73%-0.29 -6.4 7
2001-06-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-143.2 1317 1367 41.29% 18.85% 39.86%+0.02 +12.7 9
2001-06-20 @ Grindavik L 1-343.2 1367 1317 39.86% 18.85% 41.29%-0.02 -12.7 7
2001-06-21 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-054.6 1364 1375 46.71% 18.78% 34.51%+0.19 -0.6 7
2001-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-054.6 1375 1364 34.51% 18.78% 46.71%-0.19 +0.6 11
2001-06-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-248.5 1277 1313 43.09% 18.84% 38.07%+0.08 -7.8 6
2001-06-24 @ Breidablik W 2-148.5 1313 1277 38.07% 18.84% 43.09%-0.08 +7.8 11
2001-06-24 IA Akranes W 1-044.6 1247 1364 32.03% 18.70% 49.27%-0.27 +9.3 3
2001-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-144.6 1364 1247 49.27% 18.70% 32.03%+0.27 -9.3 10
2001-06-24 Keflavik IF W 1-037.2 1354 1282 57.22% 18.22% 24.56%+0.55 +5.1 10
2001-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-137.2 1282 1354 24.56% 18.22% 57.22%-0.55 -5.1 9
2001-06-25 KR Reykjavik W 4-247.7 1289 1363 37.76% 18.84% 43.40%-0.09 +12.1 10
2001-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-447.7 1363 1289 43.40% 18.84% 37.76%+0.09 -12.1 7
2001-06-27 Fram Reykjavik W 1-037.0 1321 1256 56.45% 18.28% 25.27%+0.52 +5.3 14
2001-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-137.0 1256 1321 25.27% 18.28% 56.45%-0.52 -5.3 3
2001-06-27 Grindavik W 3-140.2 1354 1330 51.44% 18.60% 29.96%+0.34 +10.0 13
2001-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-340.2 1330 1354 29.96% 18.60% 51.44%-0.34 -10.0 9
2001-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-032.9 1375 1359 50.35% 18.65% 31.00%+0.31 +22.5 14
2001-06-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-432.9 1359 1375 31.00% 18.65% 50.35%-0.31 -22.5 10
2001-06-28 Breidablik D 1-158.2 1351 1269 58.41% 18.12% 23.48%+0.59 -1.5 8
2001-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-158.2 1269 1351 23.48% 18.12% 58.41%-0.59 +1.5 7
2001-06-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-157.7 1277 1301 44.84% 18.82% 36.35%+0.13 -0.4 10
2001-06-28 @ Keflavik IF D 1-157.7 1301 1277 36.35% 18.82% 44.84%-0.13 +0.3 11
2001-07-01 KR Reykjavik L 0-140.1 1251 1350 34.39% 18.77% 46.84%-0.19 -6.9 3
2001-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.1 1350 1251 46.84% 18.77% 34.39%+0.19 +6.9 11
2001-07-01 Valur Reykjavik W 2-033.3 1336 1301 52.75% 18.53% 28.72%+0.39 +11.1 13
2001-07-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-233.3 1301 1336 28.72% 18.53% 52.75%-0.39 -11.1 11
2001-07-02 IA Akranes W 2-146.1 1398 1364 52.54% 18.54% 28.91%+0.38 +5.6 17
2001-07-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-246.1 1364 1398 28.91% 18.54% 52.54%-0.38 -5.6 13
2001-07-02 Keflavik IF L 2-448.1 1270 1276 47.37% 18.76% 33.88%+0.21 -13.1 7
2001-07-02 @ Breidablik W 4-248.1 1276 1270 33.88% 18.76% 47.37%-0.21 +13.1 13
2001-07-09 Fram Reykjavik D 2-263.6 1289 1244 54.08% 18.45% 27.47%+0.43 -0.9 14
2001-07-09 @ Keflavik IF D 2-263.6 1244 1289 27.47% 18.45% 54.08%-0.43 +0.8 4
2001-07-09 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-054.4 1326 1403 37.40% 18.83% 43.77%-0.10 +0.3 15
2001-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-054.4 1403 1326 43.77% 18.83% 37.40%+0.10 -0.3 18
2001-07-10 Breidablik W 2-032.8 1290 1257 52.52% 18.55% 28.94%+0.38 +11.2 14
2001-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-232.8 1257 1290 28.94% 18.55% 52.52%-0.38 -11.2 7
2001-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-054.1 1359 1348 49.68% 18.68% 31.64%+0.28 -0.8 14
2001-07-10 @ IA Akranes D 0-054.1 1348 1359 31.64% 18.68% 49.68%-0.28 +0.9 14
2001-07-15 Breidablik W 1-035.9 1348 1246 60.61% 17.89% 21.50%+0.68 +4.5 17
2001-07-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-135.9 1246 1348 21.50% 17.89% 60.61%-0.68 -4.5 7
2001-07-15 IA Akranes L 0-143.7 1327 1358 43.88% 18.83% 37.28%+0.10 -8.4 15
2001-07-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-043.7 1358 1327 37.28% 18.83% 43.88%-0.10 +8.4 17
2001-07-16 Fram Reykjavik W 3-248.1 1302 1245 55.45% 18.36% 26.19%+0.48 +4.9 17
2001-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-348.1 1245 1302 26.19% 18.36% 55.45%-0.48 -4.8 4
2001-07-16 Grindavik L 0-237.8 1289 1320 43.90% 18.83% 37.27%+0.10 -15.8 14
2001-07-16 @ Keflavik IF W 2-037.8 1320 1289 37.27% 18.83% 43.90%-0.10 +15.8 12
2001-07-19 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-435.3 1336 1403 38.71% 18.85% 42.44%-0.06 -27.1 12
2001-07-19 @ Grindavik W 4-035.3 1403 1336 42.44% 18.85% 38.71%+0.06 +27.1 21
2001-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-143.4 1318 1353 43.41% 18.84% 37.76%+0.09 -8.3 15
2001-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-043.4 1353 1318 37.76% 18.84% 43.41%-0.09 +8.3 20
2001-07-26 Keflavik IF D 2-265.3 1430 1273 66.09% 17.15% 16.76%+0.92 -1.7 22
2001-07-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-265.3 1273 1430 16.76% 17.15% 66.09%-0.92 +1.7 15
2001-07-26 Valur Reykjavik W 2-034.4 1308 1306 48.46% 18.72% 32.82%+0.24 +12.4 15
2001-07-26 @ Grindavik L 0-234.4 1306 1308 32.82% 18.72% 48.46%-0.24 -12.4 17
2001-07-29 Breidablik W 2-145.0 1240 1242 47.94% 18.74% 33.32%+0.23 +6.3 7
2001-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-245.0 1242 1240 33.32% 18.74% 47.94%-0.23 -6.3 7
2001-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-250.7 1321 1310 49.63% 18.68% 31.69%+0.28 -8.8 15
2001-07-29 @ Grindavik W 2-150.7 1310 1321 31.69% 18.68% 49.63%-0.28 +8.8 18
2001-07-29 KR Reykjavik W 2-035.3 1366 1356 49.50% 18.69% 31.81%+0.28 +12.1 20
2001-07-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-235.3 1356 1366 31.81% 18.69% 49.50%-0.28 -12.1 11
2001-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 1-348.8 1361 1246 61.97% 17.73% 20.30%+0.74 -18.7 20
2001-08-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-148.8 1246 1361 20.30% 17.73% 61.97%-0.74 +18.7 10
2001-08-01 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-340.6 1294 1428 29.86% 18.60% 51.54%-0.35 -9.9 17
2001-08-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-140.6 1428 1294 51.54% 18.60% 29.86%+0.35 +9.9 25
2001-08-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-251.5 1344 1319 51.55% 18.60% 29.86%+0.35 -9.1 11
2001-08-02 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-151.5 1319 1344 29.86% 18.60% 51.55%-0.35 +9.1 21
2001-08-02 Grindavik L 2-445.2 1235 1312 37.41% 18.83% 43.76%-0.10 -10.8 7
2001-08-02 @ Breidablik W 4-245.2 1312 1235 43.76% 18.83% 37.41%+0.10 +10.7 18
2001-08-02 IA Akranes L 0-140.3 1274 1378 33.73% 18.75% 47.52%-0.21 -6.8 15
2001-08-02 @ Keflavik IF W 1-040.3 1378 1274 47.52% 18.75% 33.73%+0.21 +6.8 23
2001-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-239.4 1335 1343 47.19% 18.76% 34.04%+0.20 -16.8 11
2001-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-039.4 1343 1335 34.04% 18.76% 47.19%-0.20 +16.8 23
2001-08-12 Keflavik IF D 2-263.9 1328 1268 55.84% 18.33% 25.83%+0.50 -1.0 22
2001-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-263.9 1268 1328 25.83% 18.33% 55.84%-0.50 +1.0 16
2001-08-13 Breidablik L 0-150.8 1438 1224 70.91% 16.21% 12.88%+1.16 -13.0 25
2001-08-13 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-050.8 1224 1438 12.88% 16.21% 70.91%-1.16 +13.0 10
2001-08-13 Fram Reykjavik L 1-346.9 1323 1265 55.59% 18.35% 26.06%+0.49 -16.9 18
2001-08-13 @ Grindavik W 3-146.9 1265 1323 26.06% 18.35% 55.59%-0.49 +16.9 13
2001-08-13 Valur Reykjavik W 2-031.3 1385 1284 60.48% 17.91% 21.61%+0.67 +8.6 26
2001-08-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-231.3 1284 1385 21.61% 17.91% 60.48%-0.67 -8.6 17
2001-08-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-038.8 1282 1425 28.73% 18.53% 52.74%-0.39 +27.0 16
2001-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-338.8 1425 1282 52.74% 18.53% 28.73%+0.39 -27.0 25
2001-08-19 Grindavik W 3-030.4 1359 1306 55.03% 18.39% 26.58%+0.47 +15.0 26
2001-08-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-330.4 1306 1359 26.58% 18.39% 55.03%-0.47 -15.0 18
2001-08-19 IA Akranes L 2-349.0 1237 1394 27.27% 18.44% 54.29%-0.44 -5.0 10
2001-08-19 @ Breidablik W 3-249.0 1394 1237 54.29% 18.44% 27.27%+0.44 +5.0 29
2001-08-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-142.4 1269 1318 41.24% 18.85% 39.91%+0.02 +12.7 19
2001-08-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-342.4 1318 1269 39.91% 18.85% 41.24%-0.02 -12.7 11
2001-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.9 1275 1327 41.00% 18.85% 40.14%+0.01 -7.5 17
2001-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.9 1327 1275 40.14% 18.85% 41.00%-0.01 +7.5 25
2001-08-22 Grindavik W 2-033.8 1306 1291 50.16% 18.66% 31.18%+0.30 +11.9 14
2001-08-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-233.8 1291 1306 31.18% 18.66% 50.16%-0.30 -11.9 18
2001-08-26 Breidablik W 3-028.0 1334 1232 60.57% 17.90% 21.53%+0.68 +12.4 28
2001-08-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-328.0 1232 1334 21.53% 17.90% 60.57%-0.68 -12.4 10
2001-08-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-235.5 1281 1374 35.17% 18.79% 46.04%-0.17 -13.2 19
2001-08-26 @ Keflavik IF W 2-035.5 1374 1281 46.04% 18.79% 35.17%+0.17 +13.2 29
2001-08-26 Valur Reykjavik D 0-053.0 1318 1268 54.57% 18.42% 27.01%+0.45 -1.3 15
2001-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-053.0 1268 1318 27.01% 18.42% 54.57%-0.45 +1.3 18
2001-08-27 Fram Reykjavik W 1-037.4 1399 1308 59.30% 18.03% 22.67%+0.63 +4.8 32
2001-08-27 @ IA Akranes L 0-137.4 1308 1399 22.67% 18.03% 59.30%-0.63 -4.8 16
2001-08-27 Grindavik L 2-359.8 1399 1279 62.40% 17.68% 19.92%+0.75 -10.3 25
2001-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-259.8 1279 1399 19.92% 17.68% 62.40%-0.75 +10.3 21
2001-09-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-142.6 1388 1388 48.11% 18.74% 33.15%+0.23 +10.9 32
2001-09-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-342.6 1388 1388 33.15% 18.74% 48.11%-0.23 -10.9 25
2001-09-08 IA Akranes W 3-037.5 1289 1404 32.40% 18.71% 48.90%-0.26 +25.2 24
2001-09-08 @ Grindavik L 0-337.5 1404 1289 48.90% 18.71% 32.40%+0.26 -25.2 32
2001-09-08 Keflavik IF D 1-157.5 1269 1268 48.34% 18.73% 32.93%+0.24 -0.6 19
2001-09-08 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-157.5 1268 1269 32.93% 18.73% 48.34%-0.24 +0.7 20
2001-09-08 KR Reykjavik D 0-052.7 1220 1316 34.74% 18.78% 46.48%-0.18 +0.5 11
2001-09-08 @ Breidablik D 0-052.7 1316 1220 46.48% 18.78% 34.74%+0.18 -0.5 16
2001-09-09 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-158.3 1304 1347 42.20% 18.85% 38.95%+0.05 -0.1 17
2001-09-09 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-158.3 1347 1304 38.95% 18.85% 42.20%-0.05 +0.1 29
2001-09-16 Breidablik W 2-143.1 1269 1221 54.39% 18.43% 27.18%+0.45 +5.3 23
2001-09-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-243.1 1221 1269 27.18% 18.43% 54.39%-0.45 -5.3 11
2001-09-16 Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.2 1316 1304 49.81% 18.67% 31.51%+0.29 +6.0 19
2001-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-245.2 1304 1316 31.51% 18.67% 49.81%-0.29 -6.0 17
2001-09-16 Grindavik L 0-240.7 1347 1315 52.43% 18.55% 29.02%+0.38 -18.5 29
2001-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-040.7 1315 1347 29.02% 18.55% 52.43%-0.38 +18.5 27
2001-09-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-245.3 1269 1399 30.43% 18.63% 50.95%-0.33 -5.8 19
2001-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-145.3 1399 1269 50.95% 18.63% 30.43%+0.33 +5.8 35
2001-09-17 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-033.6 1378 1377 48.32% 18.73% 32.95%+0.24 +18.1 35
2001-09-17 @ IA Akranes L 0-333.6 1377 1378 32.95% 18.73% 48.32%-0.24 -18.1 25
2001-09-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-240.9 1359 1329 52.20% 18.56% 29.24%+0.37 -18.4 25
2001-09-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-040.9 1329 1359 29.24% 18.56% 52.20%-0.37 +18.4 32
2001-09-22 Keflavik IF W 5-344.5 1298 1274 51.29% 18.61% 30.10%+0.34 +8.5 20
2001-09-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-544.5 1274 1298 30.10% 18.61% 51.29%-0.34 -8.5 23
2001-09-22 KR Reykjavik L 0-239.8 1333 1322 49.67% 18.68% 31.65%+0.28 -17.6 27
2001-09-22 @ Grindavik W 2-039.8 1322 1333 31.65% 18.68% 49.67%-0.28 +17.6 22
2001-09-22 Valur Reykjavik W 2-146.9 1215 1263 41.56% 18.85% 39.58%+0.03 +7.3 14
2001-09-22 @ Breidablik L 1-246.9 1263 1215 39.58% 18.85% 41.56%-0.03 -7.3 19
2001-09-23 IA Akranes D 2-266.6 1404 1397 49.23% 18.70% 32.07%+0.27 -0.5 36
2001-09-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-266.6 1397 1404 32.07% 18.70% 49.23%-0.27 +0.5 36

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2001-08-13 12.88% Breidablik 1224 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1438 0
2 2001-08-27 19.92% Grindavik 1279 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1399 2
3 2001-08-01 20.30% Fram Reykjavik 1246 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1361 1
4 2001-08-13 26.06% Fram Reykjavik 1265 3 @ Grindavik 1323 1
5 2001-05-17 27.39% Keflavik IF 1273 2 @ Grindavik 1319 1
6 2001-08-19 28.73% @ Fram Reykjavik 1282 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1425 0
7 2001-09-16 29.02% Grindavik 1315 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1347 0
8 2001-09-22 29.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 1329 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1359 0
9 2001-08-02 29.86% FH Hafnarfjordur 1319 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1344 1
10 2001-09-22 31.65% KR Reykjavik 1322 2 @ Grindavik 1333 0
11 2001-07-29 31.69% FH Hafnarfjordur 1310 2 @ Grindavik 1321 1
12 2001-06-24 32.03% @ Fram Reykjavik 1247 1 IA Akranes 1364 0
13 2001-09-08 32.40% @ Grindavik 1289 3 IA Akranes 1404 0
14 2001-07-02 33.88% Keflavik IF 1276 4 @ Breidablik 1270 2
15 2001-08-12 34.04% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1343 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1335 0
16 2001-05-17 34.93% Valur Reykjavik 1295 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1281 2
17 2001-06-11 36.83% IA Akranes 1339 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1311 0
18 2001-05-20 36.94% @ Keflavik IF 1283 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1363 1
19 2001-07-16 37.27% Grindavik 1320 2 @ Keflavik IF 1289 0
20 2001-07-15 37.28% IA Akranes 1358 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1327 0
21 2001-06-25 37.76% @ Valur Reykjavik 1289 4 KR Reykjavik 1363 2
22 2001-07-26 37.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1353 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1318 0
23 2001-05-27 38.04% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1304 2 KR Reykjavik 1376 0
24 2001-06-24 38.07% FH Hafnarfjordur 1313 2 @ Breidablik 1277 1
25 2001-05-17 38.31% @ Breidablik 1292 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1362 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-07-19 27.08 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1403 42.44% @ Grindavik 0 1336 38.71% 18.85%
2 2001-08-19 26.96 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1282 28.73% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1425 52.74% 18.53%
3 2001-09-08 25.21 @ Grindavik 3 1289 32.40% IA Akranes 0 1404 48.90% 18.71%
4 2001-06-27 22.48 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1375 50.35% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1359 31.00% 18.65%
5 2001-08-01 18.66 Fram Reykjavik 3 1246 20.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1361 61.97% 17.73%
6 2001-09-16 18.47 Grindavik 2 1315 29.02% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1347 52.43% 18.55%
7 2001-09-22 18.39 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1329 29.24% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1359 52.20% 18.56%
8 2001-09-17 18.12 @ IA Akranes 3 1378 48.32% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1377 32.95% 18.73%
9 2001-09-22 17.59 KR Reykjavik 2 1322 31.65% @ Grindavik 0 1333 49.67% 18.68%
10 2001-08-13 16.86 Fram Reykjavik 3 1265 26.06% @ Grindavik 1 1323 55.59% 18.35%
11 2001-08-12 16.83 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1343 34.04% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1335 47.19% 18.76%
12 2001-06-11 15.95 IA Akranes 2 1339 36.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1311 44.34% 18.83%
13 2001-07-16 15.82 Grindavik 2 1320 37.27% @ Keflavik IF 0 1289 43.90% 18.83%
14 2001-05-27 15.59 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1304 38.04% KR Reykjavik 0 1376 43.12% 18.84%
15 2001-08-19 15.05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1359 55.03% Grindavik 0 1306 26.58% 18.39%
16 2001-06-10 14.86 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1354 40.47% @ Breidablik 0 1300 40.68% 18.85%
17 2001-08-26 13.18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1374 46.04% @ Keflavik IF 0 1281 35.17% 18.79%
18 2001-07-02 13.08 Keflavik IF 4 1276 33.88% @ Breidablik 2 1270 47.37% 18.76%
19 2001-08-13 12.96 Breidablik 1 1224 12.88% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1438 70.91% 16.21%
20 2001-08-19 12.67 @ Keflavik IF 3 1269 41.24% KR Reykjavik 1 1318 39.91% 18.85%
21 2001-06-20 12.66 @ Grindavik 3 1317 41.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1367 39.86% 18.85%
22 2001-07-26 12.44 @ Grindavik 2 1308 48.46% Valur Reykjavik 0 1306 32.82% 18.72%
23 2001-08-26 12.44 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1334 60.57% Breidablik 0 1232 21.53% 17.90%
24 2001-06-10 12.29 @ Keflavik IF 3 1280 42.68% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1319 38.47% 18.84%
25 2001-06-25 12.14 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1289 37.76% KR Reykjavik 2 1363 43.40% 18.84%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-09-23 66.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1404 49.23% IA Akranes 2 1397 32.07% 18.70%
2 2001-07-26 65.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1430 66.09% Keflavik IF 2 1273 16.76% 17.15%
3 2001-05-17 64.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1335 52.49% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1302 28.96% 18.55%
4 2001-08-12 63.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1328 55.84% Keflavik IF 2 1268 25.83% 18.33%
5 2001-07-09 63.6 @ Keflavik IF 2 1289 54.08% Fram Reykjavik 2 1244 27.47% 18.45%
6 2001-08-27 59.8 Grindavik 3 1279 19.92% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1399 62.40% 17.68%
7 2001-09-09 58.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1304 42.20% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1347 38.95% 18.85%
8 2001-06-28 58.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1351 58.41% Breidablik 1 1269 23.48% 18.12%
9 2001-06-28 57.7 @ Keflavik IF 1 1277 44.84% Valur Reykjavik 1 1301 36.35% 18.82%
10 2001-09-08 57.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1269 48.34% Keflavik IF 1 1268 32.93% 18.73%
11 2001-06-21 54.6 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1364 46.71% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1375 34.51% 18.78%
12 2001-05-17 54.5 Valur Reykjavik 3 1295 34.93% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1281 46.28% 18.79%
13 2001-07-09 54.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1326 37.40% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1403 43.77% 18.83%
14 2001-07-10 54.1 @ IA Akranes 0 1359 49.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1348 31.64% 18.68%
15 2001-05-27 53.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1355 53.97% Valur Reykjavik 0 1310 27.57% 18.46%
16 2001-05-21 53.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1354 54.81% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1302 26.79% 18.40%
17 2001-08-26 53.0 @ KR Reykjavik 0 1318 54.57% Valur Reykjavik 0 1268 27.01% 18.42%
18 2001-09-08 52.7 @ Breidablik 0 1220 34.74% KR Reykjavik 0 1316 46.48% 18.78%
19 2001-05-17 51.7 Keflavik IF 2 1273 27.39% @ Grindavik 1 1319 54.16% 18.45%
20 2001-08-02 51.5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1319 29.86% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1344 51.55% 18.60%
21 2001-08-13 50.8 Breidablik 1 1224 12.88% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1438 70.91% 16.21%
22 2001-07-29 50.7 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1310 31.69% @ Grindavik 1 1321 49.63% 18.68%
23 2001-05-20 49.2 @ Keflavik IF 2 1283 36.94% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1363 44.24% 18.83%
24 2001-08-19 49.0 IA Akranes 3 1394 54.29% @ Breidablik 2 1237 27.27% 18.44%
25 2001-08-01 48.8 Fram Reykjavik 3 1246 20.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1361 61.97% 17.73%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2001-08-26 28.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1334 60.57% Breidablik 0 1232 21.53% 17.90%
2 2001-08-19 30.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1359 55.03% Grindavik 0 1306 26.58% 18.39%
3 2001-08-13 31.3 @ IA Akranes 2 1385 60.48% Valur Reykjavik 0 1284 21.61% 17.91%
4 2001-06-18 32.4 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1354 56.05% Keflavik IF 0 1292 25.64% 18.31%
5 2001-07-10 32.8 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1290 52.52% Breidablik 0 1257 28.94% 18.55%
6 2001-06-27 32.9 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1375 50.35% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1359 31.00% 18.65%
7 2001-05-27 33.1 @ IA Akranes 2 1328 53.10% Keflavik IF 0 1291 28.39% 18.51%
8 2001-07-01 33.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1336 52.75% Valur Reykjavik 0 1301 28.72% 18.53%
9 2001-09-17 33.6 @ IA Akranes 3 1378 48.32% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1377 32.95% 18.73%
10 2001-08-22 33.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1306 50.16% Grindavik 0 1291 31.18% 18.66%
11 2001-07-26 34.4 @ Grindavik 2 1308 48.46% Valur Reykjavik 0 1306 32.82% 18.72%
12 2001-07-19 35.3 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1403 42.44% @ Grindavik 0 1336 38.71% 18.85%
13 2001-07-29 35.3 @ IA Akranes 2 1366 49.50% KR Reykjavik 0 1356 31.81% 18.69%
14 2001-08-26 35.5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1374 46.04% @ Keflavik IF 0 1281 35.17% 18.79%
15 2001-07-15 35.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1348 60.61% Breidablik 0 1246 21.50% 17.89%
16 2001-06-27 37.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1321 56.45% Fram Reykjavik 0 1256 25.27% 18.28%
17 2001-06-10 37.2 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1354 40.47% @ Breidablik 0 1300 40.68% 18.85%
18 2001-06-24 37.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1354 57.22% Keflavik IF 0 1282 24.56% 18.22%
19 2001-08-27 37.4 @ IA Akranes 1 1399 59.30% Fram Reykjavik 0 1308 22.67% 18.03%
20 2001-09-08 37.5 @ Grindavik 3 1289 32.40% IA Akranes 0 1404 48.90% 18.71%
21 2001-07-16 37.8 Grindavik 2 1320 37.27% @ Keflavik IF 0 1289 43.90% 18.83%
22 2001-06-18 38.0 @ IA Akranes 3 1355 57.02% Breidablik 1 1285 24.74% 18.24%
23 2001-05-27 38.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1304 38.04% KR Reykjavik 0 1376 43.12% 18.84%
24 2001-06-11 38.2 IA Akranes 2 1339 36.83% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1311 44.34% 18.83%
25 2001-05-20 38.5 @ Breidablik 1 1300 51.67% Fram Reykjavik 0 1274 29.74% 18.59%