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2002 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

36 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 2000.0

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

13 pts

Keflavik IF · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

8.54 points above expected

36 points · 27.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

9.82 points below expected

13 points · 22.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 10 6 2 36 32 18 +14 27.46 +8.54
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 10 4 4 34 30 22 +8 27.19 +6.81
3 Grindavik 18 8 5 5 29 32 26 +6 25.87 +3.13
4 KA Akureyri 18 6 7 5 25 18 19 -1 23.38 +1.62
5 IA Akranes 18 6 5 7 23 29 26 +3 24.40 -1.40
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 7 6 22 29 30 -1 22.30 -0.30
7 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 4 8 6 20 25 30 -5 20.85 -0.85
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 5 8 20 23 22 +1 24.61 -4.61
9 Fram Reykjavik 18 5 5 8 20 29 33 -4 22.27 -2.27
10 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 3 4 11 13 22 43 -21 22.82 -9.82

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 36 27.46 +8.54
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 34 27.19 +6.81
3 Grindavik 29 25.87 +3.13
4 KA Akureyri 25 23.38 +1.62
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 22.30 -0.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 13 22.82 -9.82
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 20 24.61 -4.61
3 Fram Reykjavik 20 22.27 -2.27
4 IA Akranes 23 24.40 -1.40
5 Keflavik IF 20 20.85 -0.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 Jul 18 – Aug 19 1 in 61
2 IA Akranes 3 Jun 27 – Jul 11 1 in 34
3 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 2 – Jun 20 1 in 20
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Sep 15 – Sep 21 1 in 14
5 Keflavik IF 2 May 25 – May 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 4 Jul 6 – Aug 1 1 in 61
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Aug 8 – Aug 26 1 in 37
3 IA Akranes 3 May 20 – May 29 1 in 30
4 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 10 – Jun 19 1 in 9
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Jun 1 – Jun 8 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 11 Jun 27 – Sep 21 1 in 39
2 Grindavik 7 Jul 25 – Sep 15 1 in 14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 25 – Jun 9 1 in 7
4 Keflavik IF 4 May 20 – Jun 2 1 in 6
5 KA Akureyri 4 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 2 – Jul 14 1 in 15
2 Thor Akureyri 6 May 25 – Jun 23 1 in 14
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 Jul 14 – Aug 19 1 in 9
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Aug 12 – Sep 15 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 5 May 20 – Jun 8 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KR Reykjavik 1375 36 +31 9 8.4 +0.6
Fylkir Reykjavik 1339 34 -25 7 7.9 -0.9
Grindavik 1318 29 +14 10 7.9 +2.1
KA Akureyri 1255 25 -23 6 6.7 -0.7
IA Akranes 1322 23 +10 8 7.5 +0.5
FH Hafnarfjordur 1274 22 -8 5 6.7 -1.7
Fram Reykjavik 1262 20 +24 7 5.4 +1.6
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 20 +21 7 6.3 +0.7
Keflavik IF 1254 20 +10 5 5.2 -0.2
Thor Akureyri 1169 13 -54 3 5.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR KI TA
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.24
0-2-0
2.87
1-1-0
2.48
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.42
 —
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.11
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.63
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
3.23
 —
1-0-1
2.96
0-0-2
3.07
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
3.00
0-2-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.37
Grindavik
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.38
 —
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
3.22
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.75
0-1-1
3.08
2-0-0
2.28
0-0-2
2.77
 —
1-0-1
2.65
0-2-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.71
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.89
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.69
 —
0-2-0
2.87
1-1-0
2.25
0-0-2
3.06
1-1-0
2.86
KA Akureyri
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.54
0-2-0
2.48
 —
0-0-2
2.41
2-0-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.70
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.11
2-0-0
3.25
0-2-0
2.48
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.10
2-0-0
2.93
 —
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.29
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
2.48
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.50
2-0-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
2.27
 —
0-2-0
2.75
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
2.10
0-2-0
2.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.34 +8.7
Allowed 0.60 -7.3
Differential 0.83 +6.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%8.33%5.00%2.22%—0.56%20.56%
18.33%18.89%5.00%4.44%2.22%0.56%39.44%
25.00%5.00%5.56%2.78%1.67%1.11%21.11%
32.22%4.44%2.78%1.11%——10.56%
4—2.22%1.67%—1.11%0.56%5.56%
5+0.56%0.56%1.11%—0.56%—2.78%
Total20.56%39.44%21.11%10.56%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.64
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4————5.56%5.56%11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.67 -0.06
SD 1.58 1.33 1.39
CV 0.98 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
2———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.83 -0.22
SD 1.33 1.25 1.48
CV 0.83 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
116.67%16.67%—16.67%——50.00%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.22 +0.44
SD 1.03 1.22 1.58
CV 0.62 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.44 +0.33
SD 1.35 1.25 1.78
CV 0.76 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
216.67%——5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.44 +0.17
SD 1.29 1.20 1.79
CV 0.80 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%————27.78%
1—22.22%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%61.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.18 1.00 1.59
CV 0.92 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
122.22%33.33%5.56%———61.11%
2———————
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.06 -0.06
SD 1.03 0.87 1.39
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
211.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.00 +0.78
SD 1.26 0.91 1.63
CV 0.71 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.67 -0.28
SD 1.09 1.28 1.56
CV 0.79 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
15.56%11.11%—11.11%—5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3———————
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.39 -1.17
SD 1.26 1.61 1.79
CV 1.03 0.68 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1375 36 27.46 +8.54 97.0% 16 19 24 28 31 35 39
Fylkir Reykjavik 1339 34 27.19 +6.81 89.0% 15 19 23 27 31 36 40
IA Akranes 1322 23 24.40 -1.40 38.0% 9 14 21 25 28 31 36
Grindavik 1318 29 25.87 +3.13 76.0% 11 18 23 25 29 33 38
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 20 24.61 -4.61 25.0% 13 16 20 25 28 32 36
FH Hafnarfjordur 1274 22 22.30 -0.30 54.0% 10 14 19 22 26 32 35
Fram Reykjavik 1262 20 22.27 -2.27 41.0% 10 14 19 22 26 31 34
KA Akureyri 1255 25 23.38 +1.62 73.0% 12 16 20 23 26 32 36
Keflavik IF 1254 20 20.85 -0.85 45.0% 8 12 17 21 24 30 36
Thor Akureyri 1169 13 22.82 -9.82 3.0% 11 14 19 23 27 30 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
36.67%31.11%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
KR Reykjavik, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.08 * Some Luck: 4.08 to 6.12 * Lucky: 6.12 to 8.17 * Wild Swing: 8.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.02 * Close: 2.02 to 3.03 * Off: 3.03 to 4.04 * Way Off: 4.04 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.25 * A Surprise: 1.25 to 2 * Several Surprises: 2 to 2.75 * Many Surprises: 2.75 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.07 points
Some Luck
05.1013
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.526
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 57.39
1.31
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Even
50%75%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.662
Matchup Imbalance
0.16
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.01
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
37%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.23
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.151
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik18.00%21.00%21.00%11.00%8.00%5.00%10.00%1.00%4.00%1.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik26.00%17.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%2.00%
Grindavik17.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%16.00%4.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%
KA Akureyri7.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%16.00%10.00%15.00%22.00%9.00%7.00%
IA Akranes7.00%11.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%4.00%10.00%11.00%7.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur4.00%8.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%7.00%13.00%11.00%14.00%16.00%
Keflavik IF3.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%10.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%22.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar7.00%13.00%10.00%21.00%6.00%4.00%16.00%10.00%2.00%11.00%
Fram Reykjavik5.00%3.00%11.00%5.00%7.00%17.00%9.00%6.00%24.00%13.00%
Thor Akureyri6.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%6.00%16.00%8.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 95.00% 5.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 92.00% 8.00%
Grindavik 90.00% 10.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 87.00% 13.00%
KA Akureyri 84.00% 16.00%
IA Akranes 82.00% 18.00%
Thor Akureyri 75.00% 25.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 70.00% 30.00%
Fram Reykjavik 63.00% 37.00%
Keflavik IF 62.00% 38.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.7 1269 1280 34.70% 32.99% 32.31%+0.02 -0.1 1
2002-05-20 @ Keflavik IF D 1-150.7 1280 1269 32.31% 32.99% 34.70%-0.02 +0.1 1
2002-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-336.6 1290 1290 36.34% 32.93% 30.73%+0.08 -28.1 0
2002-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-036.6 1290 1290 30.73% 32.93% 36.34%-0.08 +28.1 3
2002-05-20 Grindavik D 2-256.1 1288 1282 37.14% 32.88% 29.98%+0.10 -0.3 1
2002-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-256.1 1282 1288 29.98% 32.88% 37.14%-0.10 +0.3 1
2002-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-150.8 1268 1304 31.19% 32.95% 35.86%-0.10 +0.2 1
2002-05-20 @ KA Akureyri D 1-150.8 1304 1268 35.86% 32.95% 31.19%+0.10 -0.2 1
2002-05-20 Thor Akureyri L 0-143.5 1303 1298 36.99% 32.89% 30.12%+0.10 -10.4 0
2002-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 1-043.5 1298 1303 30.12% 32.89% 36.99%-0.10 +10.4 3
2002-05-24 IA Akranes W 3-142.6 1287 1293 35.56% 32.96% 31.48%+0.05 +15.2 4
2002-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-342.6 1293 1287 31.48% 32.96% 35.56%-0.05 -15.2 0
2002-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-462.3 1308 1262 42.69% 32.24% 25.06%+0.30 -0.5 4
2002-05-25 @ Thor Akureyri D 4-462.3 1262 1308 25.06% 32.24% 42.69%-0.30 +0.5 1
2002-05-25 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.8 1282 1281 36.50% 32.92% 30.58%+0.08 -0.3 2
2002-05-25 @ Grindavik D 1-150.8 1281 1282 30.58% 32.92% 36.50%-0.08 +0.3 2
2002-05-25 KA Akureyri D 1-151.1 1318 1268 43.14% 32.17% 24.69%+0.31 -1.0 4
2002-05-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.1 1268 1318 24.69% 32.17% 43.14%-0.31 +1.0 2
2002-05-25 Keflavik IF L 1-249.3 1304 1269 41.08% 32.49% 26.43%+0.24 -10.5 1
2002-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-149.3 1269 1304 26.43% 32.49% 41.08%-0.24 +10.5 4
2002-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-247.5 1281 1293 34.56% 32.99% 32.46%+0.02 -9.3 2
2002-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.5 1293 1281 32.46% 32.99% 34.56%-0.02 +9.3 4
2002-05-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-144.1 1280 1317 31.04% 32.94% 36.02%-0.10 +16.6 7
2002-05-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-344.1 1317 1280 36.02% 32.94% 31.04%+0.10 -16.6 4
2002-05-29 Grindavik L 1-343.8 1277 1282 35.69% 32.96% 31.35%+0.05 -16.5 0
2002-05-29 @ IA Akranes W 3-143.8 1282 1277 31.35% 32.96% 35.69%-0.05 +16.5 5
2002-05-29 KR Reykjavik W 1-043.1 1263 1303 30.64% 32.92% 36.44%-0.12 +10.3 4
2002-05-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-143.1 1303 1263 36.44% 32.92% 30.64%+0.12 -10.3 4
2002-05-30 Thor Akureyri W 1-043.1 1269 1308 30.80% 32.93% 36.27%-0.11 +10.2 5
2002-05-30 @ KA Akureyri L 0-143.1 1308 1269 36.27% 32.93% 30.80%+0.11 -10.2 4
2002-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-046.6 1261 1273 34.60% 32.99% 32.41%+0.02 -0.1 1
2002-06-01 @ IA Akranes D 0-046.6 1273 1261 32.41% 32.99% 34.60%-0.02 +0.1 5
2002-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-251.6 1298 1302 35.70% 32.96% 31.34%+0.05 +8.3 8
2002-06-01 @ Grindavik L 2-351.6 1302 1298 31.34% 32.96% 35.70%-0.05 -8.3 4
2002-06-02 KA Akureyri W 2-036.6 1292 1279 38.14% 32.81% 29.05%+0.14 +16.6 7
2002-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-236.6 1279 1292 29.05% 32.81% 38.14%-0.14 -16.6 5
2002-06-02 Keflavik IF D 1-151.0 1298 1296 36.49% 32.92% 30.59%+0.08 -0.3 5
2002-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-151.0 1296 1298 30.59% 32.92% 36.49%-0.08 +0.3 8
2002-06-03 Fram Reykjavik D 3-360.2 1300 1272 40.29% 32.59% 27.12%+0.21 -0.4 5
2002-06-03 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-360.2 1272 1300 27.12% 32.59% 40.29%-0.21 +0.4 3
2002-06-08 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-143.0 1294 1300 35.48% 32.96% 31.55%+0.05 -10.1 4
2002-06-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.0 1300 1294 31.55% 32.96% 35.48%-0.05 +10.1 8
2002-06-08 IA Akranes D 1-150.6 1263 1261 36.56% 32.92% 30.52%+0.08 -0.3 6
2002-06-08 @ KA Akureyri D 1-150.6 1261 1263 30.52% 32.92% 36.56%-0.08 +0.3 2
2002-06-09 Grindavik W 3-252.7 1273 1306 31.52% 32.96% 35.51%-0.09 +9.0 8
2002-06-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-352.7 1306 1273 35.51% 32.96% 31.52%+0.09 -9.0 8
2002-06-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-143.5 1272 1297 32.66% 32.99% 34.35%-0.05 +16.1 6
2002-06-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-343.5 1297 1272 34.35% 32.99% 32.66%+0.05 -16.1 5
2002-06-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-142.8 1297 1309 34.54% 32.99% 32.47%+0.02 -9.9 8
2002-06-10 @ Keflavik IF W 1-042.8 1309 1297 32.47% 32.99% 34.54%-0.02 +9.9 10
2002-06-19 Grindavik W 2-036.8 1310 1297 38.03% 32.82% 29.15%+0.13 +16.6 11
2002-06-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-236.8 1297 1310 29.15% 32.82% 38.03%-0.13 -16.6 8
2002-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-150.8 1281 1284 35.91% 32.95% 31.14%+0.06 -0.2 6
2002-06-19 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-150.8 1284 1281 31.14% 32.95% 35.91%-0.06 +0.2 5
2002-06-19 KA Akureyri L 0-143.7 1282 1262 39.03% 32.73% 28.24%+0.17 -10.8 8
2002-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-043.7 1262 1282 28.24% 32.73% 39.03%-0.17 +10.8 9
2002-06-19 Keflavik IF W 5-243.7 1261 1287 32.63% 32.99% 34.38%-0.05 +19.7 5
2002-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 2-543.7 1287 1261 34.38% 32.99% 32.63%+0.05 -19.7 8
2002-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.4 1319 1288 40.58% 32.56% 26.87%+0.22 +8.3 13
2002-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.4 1288 1319 26.87% 32.56% 40.58%-0.22 -8.3 6
2002-06-23 Grindavik L 0-142.7 1273 1281 35.19% 32.97% 31.83%+0.04 -10.0 9
2002-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 1-042.7 1281 1273 31.83% 32.97% 35.19%-0.04 +10.0 11
2002-06-23 KR Reykjavik W 3-036.9 1284 1327 30.27% 32.90% 36.83%-0.13 +28.3 8
2002-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-336.9 1327 1284 36.83% 32.90% 30.27%+0.13 -28.3 13
2002-06-23 Thor Akureyri W 4-244.8 1326 1281 42.55% 32.27% 25.18%+0.29 +11.5 14
2002-06-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-444.8 1281 1326 25.18% 32.27% 42.55%-0.29 -11.5 6
2002-06-24 IA Akranes W 3-251.2 1280 1281 36.14% 32.94% 30.92%+0.07 +8.2 9
2002-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-351.2 1281 1280 30.92% 32.94% 36.14%-0.07 -8.2 5
2002-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-150.6 1267 1271 35.70% 32.96% 31.34%+0.05 -0.2 9
2002-06-26 @ Keflavik IF D 1-150.6 1271 1267 31.34% 32.96% 35.70%-0.05 +0.2 9
2002-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.3 1299 1338 30.76% 32.93% 36.31%-0.11 +0.3 14
2002-06-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.3 1338 1299 36.31% 32.93% 30.76%+0.11 -0.3 15
2002-06-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-141.5 1273 1313 30.66% 32.92% 36.42%-0.12 +23.7 8
2002-06-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-441.5 1313 1273 36.42% 32.92% 30.66%+0.12 -23.7 8
2002-06-27 Thor Akureyri L 2-448.8 1291 1270 39.29% 32.70% 28.01%+0.18 -15.8 11
2002-06-27 @ Grindavik W 4-248.8 1270 1291 28.01% 32.70% 39.29%-0.18 +15.8 9
2002-06-30 Keflavik IF W 4-139.7 1263 1267 35.77% 32.95% 31.27%+0.06 +21.4 12
2002-06-30 @ KA Akureyri L 1-439.7 1267 1263 31.27% 32.95% 35.77%-0.06 -21.4 9
2002-07-06 KR Reykjavik L 0-238.3 1285 1299 34.33% 32.99% 32.67%+0.01 -18.6 9
2002-07-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-038.3 1299 1285 32.67% 32.99% 34.33%-0.01 +18.6 17
2002-07-07 IA Akranes L 1-346.0 1338 1296 42.02% 32.35% 25.63%+0.27 -18.6 15
2002-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-146.0 1296 1338 25.63% 32.35% 42.02%-0.27 +18.6 11
2002-07-08 Grindavik D 2-255.8 1245 1275 32.07% 32.98% 34.95%-0.07 +0.1 10
2002-07-08 @ Keflavik IF D 2-255.8 1275 1245 34.95% 32.98% 32.07%+0.07 -0.1 12
2002-07-09 KA Akureyri L 0-143.2 1288 1284 36.78% 32.90% 30.31%+0.09 -10.3 9
2002-07-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-043.2 1284 1288 30.31% 32.90% 36.78%-0.09 +10.3 15
2002-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-036.3 1289 1271 38.75% 32.76% 28.50%+0.16 +16.3 11
2002-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-236.3 1271 1289 28.50% 32.76% 38.75%-0.16 -16.3 9
2002-07-11 IA Akranes L 0-236.8 1267 1315 29.58% 32.85% 37.57%-0.16 -16.8 9
2002-07-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-036.8 1315 1267 37.57% 32.85% 29.58%+0.16 +16.8 14
2002-07-14 KA Akureyri D 1-151.0 1305 1295 37.75% 32.84% 29.41%+0.12 -0.4 12
2002-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-151.0 1295 1305 29.41% 32.84% 37.75%-0.12 +0.4 16
2002-07-14 Keflavik IF D 1-150.7 1278 1246 40.76% 32.53% 26.71%+0.23 -0.7 10
2002-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.7 1246 1278 26.71% 32.53% 40.76%-0.23 +0.7 11
2002-07-15 KR Reykjavik L 0-141.4 1275 1318 30.29% 32.90% 36.80%-0.13 -9.0 12
2002-07-15 @ Grindavik W 1-041.4 1318 1275 36.80% 32.90% 30.29%+0.13 +9.0 20
2002-07-18 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-143.7 1319 1255 45.02% 31.80% 23.18%+0.38 +7.0 18
2002-07-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-243.7 1255 1319 23.18% 31.80% 45.02%-0.38 -7.0 9
2002-07-25 Grindavik L 0-336.8 1277 1266 37.84% 32.83% 29.33%+0.13 -28.9 10
2002-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-036.8 1266 1277 29.33% 32.83% 37.84%-0.13 +28.9 15
2002-07-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.7 1246 1305 28.25% 32.73% 39.02%-0.21 +10.8 14
2002-07-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-143.7 1305 1246 39.02% 32.73% 28.25%+0.21 -10.8 12
2002-07-26 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-237.8 1295 1326 31.90% 32.98% 35.12%-0.07 -17.7 16
2002-07-26 @ KA Akureyri W 2-037.8 1326 1295 35.12% 32.98% 31.90%+0.07 +17.7 21
2002-07-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-248.9 1332 1327 36.99% 32.89% 30.12%+0.10 -9.8 14
2002-07-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-148.9 1327 1332 30.12% 32.89% 36.99%-0.10 +9.8 23
2002-07-28 Thor Akureyri W 5-242.5 1248 1250 36.02% 32.94% 31.04%+0.06 +18.4 12
2002-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-542.5 1250 1248 31.04% 32.94% 36.02%-0.06 -18.4 9
2002-07-31 Fram Reykjavik L 0-144.6 1294 1248 42.63% 32.25% 25.11%+0.30 -11.5 12
2002-07-31 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-044.6 1248 1294 25.11% 32.25% 42.63%-0.30 +11.5 13
2002-08-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-256.6 1336 1266 45.79% 31.62% 22.58%+0.41 -0.9 24
2002-08-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-256.6 1266 1336 22.58% 31.62% 45.79%-0.41 +0.9 13
2002-08-01 IA Akranes W 2-147.8 1295 1322 32.43% 32.99% 34.59%-0.06 +9.3 18
2002-08-01 @ Grindavik L 1-247.8 1322 1295 34.59% 32.99% 32.43%+0.06 -9.3 14
2002-08-01 KA Akureyri L 0-140.9 1232 1278 29.86% 32.87% 37.27%-0.15 -9.0 9
2002-08-01 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-040.9 1278 1232 37.27% 32.87% 29.86%+0.15 +9.0 19
2002-08-01 Keflavik IF W 2-033.8 1344 1257 47.93% 31.09% 20.99%+0.49 +12.9 24
2002-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-233.8 1257 1344 20.99% 31.09% 47.93%-0.49 -12.9 14
2002-08-08 Fram Reykjavik W 3-141.8 1267 1260 37.40% 32.87% 29.73%+0.11 +14.6 16
2002-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-341.8 1260 1267 29.73% 32.87% 37.40%-0.11 -14.6 13
2002-08-10 Grindavik D 0-046.8 1282 1304 33.20% 33.00% 33.80%-0.03 +0.0 13
2002-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-046.8 1304 1282 33.80% 33.00% 33.20%+0.03 -0.0 19
2002-08-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-348.5 1245 1357 22.32% 31.55% 46.13%-0.46 -6.4 13
2002-08-11 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-248.5 1357 1245 46.13% 31.55% 22.32%+0.46 +6.4 27
2002-08-11 KR Reykjavik L 1-246.3 1287 1336 29.46% 32.85% 37.69%-0.16 -8.4 19
2002-08-11 @ KA Akureyri W 2-146.3 1336 1287 37.69% 32.85% 29.46%+0.16 +8.4 27
2002-08-11 Thor Akureyri D 2-255.7 1244 1223 39.31% 32.70% 27.99%+0.18 -0.4 15
2002-08-11 @ Keflavik IF D 2-255.7 1223 1244 27.99% 32.70% 39.31%-0.18 +0.4 10
2002-08-12 IA Akranes D 1-150.9 1282 1313 31.94% 32.98% 35.08%-0.07 +0.2 17
2002-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-150.9 1313 1282 35.08% 32.98% 31.94%+0.07 -0.1 15
2002-08-17 KA Akureyri D 1-151.1 1312 1278 41.05% 32.49% 26.46%+0.24 -0.8 16
2002-08-17 @ IA Akranes D 1-151.1 1278 1312 26.46% 32.49% 41.05%-0.24 +0.8 20
2002-08-18 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-145.5 1304 1282 39.36% 32.70% 27.94%+0.18 +8.1 22
2002-08-18 @ Grindavik L 1-245.5 1282 1304 27.94% 32.70% 39.36%-0.18 -8.1 17
2002-08-18 Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.6 1223 1238 34.09% 32.99% 32.92%+0.00 +9.0 13
2002-08-18 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-246.6 1238 1223 32.92% 32.99% 34.09%+0.00 -9.0 13
2002-08-18 Keflavik IF D 2-256.8 1344 1244 49.60% 30.60% 19.81%+0.56 -1.2 28
2002-08-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-256.8 1244 1344 19.81% 30.60% 49.60%-0.56 +1.2 16
2002-08-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-038.7 1363 1283 47.14% 31.30% 21.57%+0.46 +7.0 30
2002-08-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-138.7 1283 1363 21.57% 31.30% 47.14%-0.46 -7.0 13
2002-08-24 Thor Akureyri W 3-140.3 1276 1232 42.30% 32.31% 25.39%+0.28 +13.0 16
2002-08-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-340.3 1232 1276 25.39% 32.31% 42.30%-0.28 -13.0 13
2002-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-150.7 1279 1274 36.98% 32.89% 30.13%+0.10 -0.4 21
2002-08-25 @ KA Akureyri D 1-150.7 1274 1279 30.13% 32.89% 36.98%-0.10 +0.4 18
2002-08-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-145.7 1312 1370 28.33% 32.74% 38.93%-0.20 +17.6 25
2002-08-25 @ Grindavik L 1-345.7 1370 1312 38.93% 32.74% 28.33%+0.20 -17.6 30
2002-08-25 IA Akranes L 0-235.9 1245 1312 27.25% 32.61% 40.14%-0.25 -15.8 16
2002-08-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-035.9 1312 1245 40.14% 32.61% 27.25%+0.25 +15.8 19
2002-08-26 KR Reykjavik L 2-443.4 1229 1343 22.18% 31.50% 46.32%-0.47 -10.4 13
2002-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-243.4 1343 1229 46.32% 31.50% 22.18%+0.47 +10.4 31
2002-08-31 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.5 1327 1219 50.60% 30.28% 19.12%+0.59 -1.8 20
2002-08-31 @ IA Akranes D 1-151.5 1219 1327 19.12% 30.28% 50.60%-0.59 +1.8 14
2002-09-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-137.7 1219 1352 20.31% 30.82% 48.87%-0.57 -6.6 13
2002-09-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-037.7 1352 1219 48.87% 30.82% 20.31%+0.57 +6.6 33
2002-09-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-151.7 1353 1289 45.08% 31.78% 23.13%+0.38 -1.2 32
2002-09-02 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1289 1353 23.13% 31.78% 45.08%-0.38 +1.2 17
2002-09-02 KA Akureyri D 0-047.2 1330 1279 43.32% 32.13% 24.55%+0.32 -1.1 26
2002-09-02 @ Grindavik D 0-047.2 1279 1330 24.55% 32.13% 43.32%-0.32 +1.1 22
2002-09-02 Keflavik IF D 0-046.7 1274 1229 42.54% 32.27% 25.19%+0.29 -1.0 19
2002-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-046.7 1229 1274 25.19% 32.27% 42.54%-0.29 +1.0 17
2002-09-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 5-457.4 1221 1273 29.00% 32.81% 38.19%-0.18 +9.1 17
2002-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 4-557.4 1273 1221 38.19% 32.81% 29.00%+0.18 -9.1 19
2002-09-15 Grindavik L 1-535.5 1212 1329 21.90% 31.41% 46.70%-0.48 -21.1 13
2002-09-15 @ Thor Akureyri W 5-135.5 1329 1212 46.70% 31.41% 21.90%+0.48 +21.1 29
2002-09-15 IA Akranes W 4-141.6 1290 1326 31.20% 32.95% 35.85%-0.10 +23.4 20
2002-09-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-441.6 1326 1290 35.85% 32.95% 31.20%+0.10 -23.4 20
2002-09-15 KA Akureyri L 2-350.5 1230 1280 29.40% 32.84% 37.76%-0.16 -7.9 17
2002-09-15 @ Keflavik IF W 3-250.5 1280 1230 37.76% 32.84% 29.40%+0.16 +7.9 25
2002-09-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-152.1 1359 1352 37.31% 32.87% 29.82%+0.11 -0.4 34
2002-09-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.1 1352 1359 29.82% 32.87% 37.31%-0.11 +0.4 33
2002-09-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-338.3 1288 1230 44.19% 31.97% 23.85%+0.35 -32.4 25
2002-09-21 @ KA Akureyri W 3-038.3 1230 1288 23.85% 31.97% 44.19%-0.35 +32.3 20
2002-09-21 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-040.2 1302 1359 28.51% 32.76% 38.74%-0.20 +20.2 23
2002-09-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-240.2 1359 1302 38.74% 32.76% 28.51%+0.20 -20.2 34
2002-09-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.4 1264 1313 29.48% 32.85% 37.68%-0.16 +9.9 22
2002-09-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-248.4 1313 1264 37.68% 32.85% 29.48%+0.16 -9.9 20
2002-09-21 Keflavik IF L 1-445.3 1350 1222 52.88% 29.47% 17.65%+0.69 -31.3 29
2002-09-21 @ Grindavik W 4-145.3 1222 1350 17.65% 29.47% 52.88%-0.69 +31.3 20
2002-09-21 Thor Akureyri W 5-029.5 1352 1191 56.75% 27.87% 15.38%+0.85 +22.3 36
2002-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-529.5 1191 1352 15.38% 27.87% 56.75%-0.85 -22.4 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2002-09-21 17.65% Keflavik IF 1222 4 @ Grindavik 1350 1
2 2002-09-21 23.85% Fram Reykjavik 1230 3 @ KA Akureyri 1288 0
3 2002-07-31 25.11% Fram Reykjavik 1248 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1294 0
4 2002-07-07 25.63% IA Akranes 1296 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1338 1
5 2002-05-25 26.43% Keflavik IF 1269 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1304 1
6 2002-06-27 28.01% Thor Akureyri 1270 4 @ Grindavik 1291 2
7 2002-06-19 28.24% KA Akureyri 1262 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1282 0
8 2002-07-25 28.25% @ Keflavik IF 1246 1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1305 0
9 2002-08-25 28.33% @ Grindavik 1312 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1370 1
10 2002-09-21 28.51% @ IA Akranes 1302 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1359 0
11 2002-09-15 29.00% @ Fram Reykjavik 1221 5 FH Hafnarfjordur 1273 4
12 2002-07-25 29.33% Grindavik 1266 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1277 0
13 2002-09-21 29.48% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1264 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1313 1
14 2002-05-20 30.12% Thor Akureyri 1298 1 @ IA Akranes 1303 0
15 2002-07-27 30.12% KR Reykjavik 1327 2 @ IA Akranes 1332 1
16 2002-06-23 30.27% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1284 3 KR Reykjavik 1327 0
17 2002-07-09 30.31% KA Akureyri 1284 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1288 0
18 2002-05-29 30.64% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1263 1 KR Reykjavik 1303 0
19 2002-06-27 30.66% @ IA Akranes 1273 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1313 1
20 2002-05-20 30.73% Fylkir Reykjavik 1290 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1290 0
21 2002-05-30 30.80% @ KA Akureyri 1269 1 Thor Akureyri 1308 0
22 2002-05-29 31.04% @ Keflavik IF 1280 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1317 1
23 2002-09-15 31.20% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1290 4 IA Akranes 1326 1
24 2002-05-29 31.35% Grindavik 1282 3 @ IA Akranes 1277 1
25 2002-06-09 31.52% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1273 3 Grindavik 1306 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-21 32.36 Fram Reykjavik 3 1230 23.85% @ KA Akureyri 0 1288 44.19% 31.97%
2 2002-09-21 31.33 Keflavik IF 4 1222 17.65% @ Grindavik 1 1350 52.88% 29.47%
3 2002-07-25 28.87 Grindavik 3 1266 29.33% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1277 37.84% 32.83%
4 2002-06-23 28.33 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1284 30.27% KR Reykjavik 0 1327 36.83% 32.90%
5 2002-05-20 28.06 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1290 30.73% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1290 36.34% 32.93%
6 2002-06-27 23.70 @ IA Akranes 4 1273 30.66% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1313 36.42% 32.92%
7 2002-09-15 23.44 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1290 31.20% IA Akranes 1 1326 35.85% 32.95%
8 2002-09-21 22.35 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1352 56.75% Thor Akureyri 0 1191 15.38% 27.87%
9 2002-06-30 21.37 @ KA Akureyri 4 1263 35.77% Keflavik IF 1 1267 31.27% 32.95%
10 2002-09-15 21.06 Grindavik 5 1329 46.70% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1212 21.90% 31.41%
11 2002-09-21 20.21 @ IA Akranes 2 1302 28.51% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1359 38.74% 32.76%
12 2002-06-19 19.73 @ IA Akranes 5 1261 32.63% Keflavik IF 2 1287 34.38% 32.99%
13 2002-07-06 18.59 KR Reykjavik 2 1299 32.67% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1285 34.33% 32.99%
14 2002-07-07 18.58 IA Akranes 3 1296 25.63% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1338 42.02% 32.35%
15 2002-07-28 18.41 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1248 36.02% Thor Akureyri 2 1250 31.04% 32.94%
16 2002-07-26 17.69 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1326 35.12% @ KA Akureyri 0 1295 31.90% 32.98%
17 2002-08-25 17.57 @ Grindavik 3 1312 28.33% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1370 38.93% 32.74%
18 2002-07-11 16.78 IA Akranes 2 1315 37.57% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1267 29.58% 32.85%
19 2002-05-29 16.63 @ Keflavik IF 3 1280 31.04% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1317 36.02% 32.94%
20 2002-06-19 16.61 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1310 38.03% Grindavik 0 1297 29.15% 32.82%
21 2002-06-02 16.56 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1292 38.14% KA Akureyri 0 1279 29.05% 32.81%
22 2002-05-29 16.53 Grindavik 3 1282 31.35% @ IA Akranes 1 1277 35.69% 32.96%
23 2002-07-10 16.34 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1289 38.75% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1271 28.50% 32.76%
24 2002-06-09 16.10 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1272 32.66% Thor Akureyri 1 1297 34.35% 32.99%
25 2002-06-27 15.82 Thor Akureyri 4 1270 28.01% @ Grindavik 2 1291 39.29% 32.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-05-25 62.3 @ Thor Akureyri 4 1308 42.69% FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1262 25.06% 32.24%
2 2002-06-03 60.2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1300 40.29% Fram Reykjavik 3 1272 27.12% 32.59%
3 2002-09-15 57.4 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1221 29.00% FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1273 38.19% 32.81%
4 2002-08-18 56.8 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1344 49.60% Keflavik IF 2 1244 19.81% 30.60%
5 2002-08-01 56.6 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1336 45.79% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1266 22.58% 31.62%
6 2002-05-20 56.1 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1288 37.14% Grindavik 2 1282 29.98% 32.88%
7 2002-07-08 55.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 1245 32.07% Grindavik 2 1275 34.95% 32.98%
8 2002-08-11 55.7 @ Keflavik IF 2 1244 39.31% Thor Akureyri 2 1223 27.99% 32.70%
9 2002-06-09 52.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1273 31.52% Grindavik 2 1306 35.51% 32.96%
10 2002-09-15 52.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1359 37.31% KR Reykjavik 1 1352 29.82% 32.87%
11 2002-09-02 51.7 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1353 45.08% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1289 23.13% 31.78%
12 2002-06-01 51.6 @ Grindavik 3 1298 35.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1302 31.34% 32.96%
13 2002-08-31 51.5 @ IA Akranes 1 1327 50.60% Fram Reykjavik 1 1219 19.12% 30.28%
14 2002-06-27 51.3 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1299 30.76% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1338 36.31% 32.93%
15 2002-06-24 51.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1280 36.14% IA Akranes 2 1281 30.92% 32.94%
16 2002-05-25 51.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1318 43.14% KA Akureyri 1 1268 24.69% 32.17%
17 2002-08-17 51.1 @ IA Akranes 1 1312 41.05% KA Akureyri 1 1278 26.46% 32.49%
18 2002-06-02 51.0 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1298 36.49% Keflavik IF 1 1296 30.59% 32.92%
19 2002-07-14 51.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1305 37.75% KA Akureyri 1 1295 29.41% 32.84%
20 2002-08-12 50.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1282 31.94% IA Akranes 1 1313 35.08% 32.98%
21 2002-05-20 50.8 @ KA Akureyri 1 1268 31.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1304 35.86% 32.95%
22 2002-05-25 50.8 @ Grindavik 1 1282 36.50% Fram Reykjavik 1 1281 30.58% 32.92%
23 2002-06-19 50.8 @ Thor Akureyri 1 1281 35.91% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1284 31.14% 32.95%
24 2002-05-20 50.7 @ Keflavik IF 1 1269 34.70% Fram Reykjavik 1 1280 32.31% 32.99%
25 2002-07-14 50.7 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1278 40.76% Keflavik IF 1 1246 26.71% 32.53%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-21 29.5 @ KR Reykjavik 5 1352 56.75% Thor Akureyri 0 1191 15.38% 27.87%
2 2002-08-01 33.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1344 47.93% Keflavik IF 0 1257 20.99% 31.09%
3 2002-09-15 35.5 Grindavik 5 1329 46.70% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1212 21.90% 31.41%
4 2002-08-25 35.9 IA Akranes 2 1312 40.14% @ Keflavik IF 0 1245 27.25% 32.61%
5 2002-07-10 36.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1289 38.75% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1271 28.50% 32.76%
6 2002-05-20 36.6 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1290 30.73% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1290 36.34% 32.93%
7 2002-06-02 36.6 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1292 38.14% KA Akureyri 0 1279 29.05% 32.81%
8 2002-06-19 36.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1310 38.03% Grindavik 0 1297 29.15% 32.82%
9 2002-07-11 36.8 IA Akranes 2 1315 37.57% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1267 29.58% 32.85%
10 2002-07-25 36.8 Grindavik 3 1266 29.33% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1277 37.84% 32.83%
11 2002-06-23 36.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1284 30.27% KR Reykjavik 0 1327 36.83% 32.90%
12 2002-09-02 37.7 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1352 48.87% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1219 20.31% 30.82%
13 2002-07-26 37.8 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1326 35.12% @ KA Akureyri 0 1295 31.90% 32.98%
14 2002-07-06 38.3 KR Reykjavik 2 1299 32.67% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1285 34.33% 32.99%
15 2002-09-21 38.3 Fram Reykjavik 3 1230 23.85% @ KA Akureyri 0 1288 44.19% 31.97%
16 2002-08-19 38.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1363 47.14% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1283 21.57% 31.30%
17 2002-06-30 39.7 @ KA Akureyri 4 1263 35.77% Keflavik IF 1 1267 31.27% 32.95%
18 2002-09-21 40.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1302 28.51% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1359 38.74% 32.76%
19 2002-08-24 40.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1276 42.30% Thor Akureyri 1 1232 25.39% 32.31%
20 2002-06-20 40.4 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1319 40.58% Fram Reykjavik 0 1288 26.87% 32.56%
21 2002-08-01 40.9 KA Akureyri 1 1278 37.27% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1232 29.86% 32.87%
22 2002-07-15 41.4 KR Reykjavik 1 1318 36.80% @ Grindavik 0 1275 30.29% 32.90%
23 2002-06-27 41.5 @ IA Akranes 4 1273 30.66% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1313 36.42% 32.92%
24 2002-09-15 41.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1290 31.20% IA Akranes 1 1326 35.85% 32.95%
25 2002-08-08 41.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1267 37.40% Fram Reykjavik 1 1260 29.73% 32.87%