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2003 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

33 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 2002.0

Relegated

Valur Reykjavik

20 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 22 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

5.48 points above expected

30 points · 24.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valur Reykjavik

3.71 points below expected

20 points · 23.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 10 3 5 33 28 27 +1 28.05 +4.95
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 3 6 30 36 24 +12 24.52 +5.48
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 27 21 +6 26.11 +3.89
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 9 2 7 29 29 24 +5 28.02 +0.98
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 7 3 8 24 25 25 0 25.30 -1.30
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 24 31 -7 24.83 -1.83
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 22 30 -8 24.92 -1.92
8 KA Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 29 27 +2 24.99 -2.99
9 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 18 7 1 10 22 27 29 -2 24.75 -2.75
10 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 6 2 10 20 24 33 -9 23.71 -3.71

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 30 24.52 +5.48
2 KR Reykjavik 33 28.05 +4.95
3 IA Akranes 30 26.11 +3.89
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 28.02 +0.98
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 25.30 -1.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 20 23.71 -3.71
2 KA Akureyri 22 24.99 -2.99
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 24.75 -2.75
4 Fram Reykjavik 23 24.92 -1.92
5 Grindavik 23 24.83 -1.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 5 Jun 21 – Jul 15 1 in 109
2 IA Akranes 5 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 48
3 KR Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 10 1 in 30
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Aug 31 1 in 16
5 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 29 – Jun 18 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 47
2 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 33
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 29 – Jun 22 1 in 29
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 9 – Jul 27 1 in 23
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 25 – Jul 8 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 9 Jul 5 – Sep 1 1 in 66
2 Grindavik 6 Jun 21 – Jul 24 1 in 29
3 IA Akranes 6 Aug 10 – Sep 20 1 in 20
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 14 – Aug 10 1 in 9
5 KA Akureyri 3 Aug 31 – Sep 20 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 14
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 11
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 19 1 in 10
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 10
5 Grindavik 4 Jul 24 – Aug 17 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KR Reykjavik 1214 33 -13 7 7.6 -0.6
IA Akranes 1219 30 +15 13 7.3 +5.7
FH Hafnarfjordur 1223 30 +38 12 6.8 +5.2
Fylkir Reykjavik 1206 29 -26 3 7.8 -4.8
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1204 24 +2 5 6.9 -1.9
Fram Reykjavik 1167 23 +8 12 7.0 +5.0
Grindavik 1177 23 -12 4 7.0 -3.0
KA Akureyri 1181 22 -5 5 7.4 -2.4
Throttur Reykjavik 1164 22 -3 4 6.5 -2.5
Valur Reykjavik 1157 20 -6 5 6.7 -1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
0-0-2
3.09
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
2.84
0-2-0
2.69
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
2.92
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.58
 —
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.87
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.12
 —
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
3.27
1-0-1
3.19
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.71
 —
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.03
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.12
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.07
 —
0-1-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.73
2-0-0
3.04
2-0-0
3.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.95
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-0-2
3.08
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.05
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.68
2-0-0
2.60
 —
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.00
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.07
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.18
 —
2-0-0
3.14
1-1-0
3.26
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.41
0-0-2
2.80
0-0-2
2.64
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.53
 —
1-0-1
2.84
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.76
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.31 +6.4
Allowed 0.51 -8.6
Differential 0.51 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%3.89%3.33%1.11%1.11%20.00%
16.11%10.00%13.33%5.56%1.11%0.56%36.67%
23.89%13.33%1.11%5.56%—0.56%24.44%
33.33%5.56%5.56%———14.44%
41.11%1.11%————2.22%
5+1.11%0.56%0.56%———2.22%
Total20.00%36.67%24.44%14.44%2.22%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.90
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.33 +0.67
SD 1.78 1.19 2.43
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
116.67%5.56%16.67%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 0.81 1.41 1.69
CV 0.66 0.85 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.33 +0.28
SD 1.50 1.33 2.19
CV 0.93 1.00 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
1—11.11%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
2—22.22%————22.22%
3——16.67%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total—38.89%50.00%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.03 0.67 1.29
CV 0.77 0.39 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
3—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.17 +0.33
SD 1.10 0.99 1.33
CV 0.73 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.38 2.14
CV 0.86 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
311.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.50 +0.11
SD 1.09 0.99 1.45
CV 0.68 0.66 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
2—27.78%————27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.50 +0.06
SD 1.20 1.58 2.36
CV 0.77 1.05 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.61 -0.11
SD 1.38 1.04 2.00
CV 0.92 0.64 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
111.11%5.56%22.22%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.83 -0.50
SD 0.97 1.50 1.86
CV 0.73 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1223 30 24.52 +5.48 85.0% 12 14 20 25 29 33 38
IA Akranes 1219 30 26.11 +3.89 80.0% 7 16 22 26 30 36 41
KR Reykjavik 1214 33 28.05 +4.95 83.0% 13 18 24 28 32 37 41
Fylkir Reykjavik 1206 29 28.02 +0.98 60.0% 14 18 24 28 32 39 43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1204 24 25.30 -1.30 44.0% 13 15 21 26 29 35 40
KA Akureyri 1181 22 24.99 -2.99 35.0% 9 14 21 24 30 36 42
Grindavik 1177 23 24.83 -1.83 40.0% 12 14 20 25 29 35 43
Fram Reykjavik 1167 23 24.92 -1.92 40.0% 12 15 21 25 28 34 43
Throttur Reykjavik 1164 22 24.75 -2.75 36.0% 12 16 20 24 28 34 42
Valur Reykjavik 1157 20 23.71 -3.71 32.0% 13 14 20 24 27 33 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Strong Edge
51.11%15.56%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.9
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.42 * Wild Swing: 9.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.32 * Close: 2.32 to 3.48 * Off: 3.48 to 4.64 * Way Off: 4.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.43 * A Surprise: 1.43 to 2.29 * Several Surprises: 2.29 to 3.15 * Many Surprises: 3.15 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.31 points
As Expected
05.8915
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Pinpoint
02.906
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
85.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
32.00%
Valur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 24.47
0.75
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
59%
Even
50%61%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.20
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.32
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.86
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Very Upset-Prone
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
36%
Very Shaky
0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4270151.001.57299
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.022
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik22.00%14.00%13.00%7.00%13.00%7.00%11.00%1.00%6.00%6.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur10.00%7.00%14.00%9.00%8.00%7.00%10.00%14.00%9.00%12.00%
IA Akranes11.00%10.00%13.00%13.00%12.00%5.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%8.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik13.00%22.00%11.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%11.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar10.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%9.00%14.00%8.00%11.00%11.00%10.00%
Grindavik4.00%11.00%16.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%6.00%9.00%11.00%15.00%
Fram Reykjavik6.00%7.00%10.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%
KA Akureyri14.00%7.00%6.00%7.00%6.00%17.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%7.00%
Throttur Reykjavik5.00%11.00%4.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%15.00%13.00%9.00%
Valur Reykjavik5.00%5.00%3.00%13.00%10.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 92.00% 8.00%
KR Reykjavik 88.00% 12.00%
IA Akranes 83.00% 17.00%
KA Akureyri 81.00% 19.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 79.00% 21.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 79.00% 21.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 78.00% 22.00%
Fram Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Grindavik 74.00% 26.00%
Valur Reykjavik 69.00% 31.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-05-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-139.0 1202 1181 53.33% 16.09% 30.57%+0.48 +4.5 3
2003-05-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-339.0 1181 1202 30.57% 16.09% 53.33%-0.48 -4.5 0
2003-05-18 IA Akranes D 1-155.2 1185 1206 47.71% 16.40% 35.89%+0.24 -0.2 1
2003-05-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-155.2 1206 1185 35.89% 16.40% 47.71%-0.24 +0.2 1
2003-05-18 KA Akureyri L 2-354.6 1200 1176 53.63% 16.07% 30.30%+0.49 -4.0 0
2003-05-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-254.6 1176 1200 30.30% 16.07% 53.63%-0.49 +4.0 3
2003-05-18 Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.8 1199 1176 53.54% 16.08% 30.38%+0.49 -4.2 0
2003-05-18 @ Grindavik W 2-148.8 1176 1199 30.38% 16.08% 53.54%-0.49 +4.2 3
2003-05-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-245.9 1167 1219 43.32% 16.49% 40.19%+0.06 -3.5 0
2003-05-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-145.9 1219 1167 40.19% 16.49% 43.32%-0.06 +3.5 3
2003-05-24 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-050.8 1180 1185 49.84% 16.31% 33.85%+0.33 -0.3 4
2003-05-24 @ KA Akureyri D 0-050.8 1185 1180 33.85% 16.31% 49.84%-0.33 +0.4 2
2003-05-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-137.9 1181 1196 48.41% 16.37% 35.22%+0.27 +7.3 6
2003-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-437.9 1196 1181 35.22% 16.37% 48.41%-0.27 -7.3 0
2003-05-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-138.2 1206 1164 55.99% 15.87% 28.14%+0.60 +4.2 4
2003-05-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-338.2 1164 1206 28.14% 15.87% 55.99%-0.60 -4.2 0
2003-05-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-155.1 1176 1222 44.11% 16.48% 39.41%+0.09 -0.1 1
2003-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-155.1 1222 1176 39.41% 16.48% 44.11%-0.09 +0.1 4
2003-05-26 Grindavik W 2-033.1 1207 1195 52.08% 16.18% 31.75%+0.42 +5.4 6
2003-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-233.1 1195 1207 31.75% 16.18% 52.08%-0.42 -5.4 0
2003-05-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-038.1 1189 1212 47.25% 16.41% 36.34%+0.22 +3.2 3
2003-05-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-138.1 1212 1189 36.34% 16.41% 47.25%-0.22 -3.2 6
2003-05-29 IA Akranes W 1-036.7 1222 1210 52.15% 16.17% 31.67%+0.43 +2.9 7
2003-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-136.7 1210 1222 31.67% 16.17% 52.15%-0.43 -2.9 4
2003-05-29 KA Akureyri W 3-140.6 1160 1180 47.71% 16.40% 35.89%+0.24 +5.2 3
2003-05-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-340.6 1180 1160 35.89% 16.40% 47.71%-0.24 -5.2 4
2003-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 4-031.5 1185 1188 50.17% 16.29% 33.54%+0.34 +10.8 5
2003-05-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-431.5 1188 1185 33.54% 16.29% 50.17%-0.34 -10.8 6
2003-05-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-248.0 1190 1176 52.27% 16.17% 31.56%+0.43 +2.5 3
2003-05-30 @ Grindavik L 2-348.0 1176 1190 31.56% 16.17% 52.27%-0.43 -2.5 1
2003-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-031.1 1209 1196 52.21% 16.17% 31.62%+0.43 +7.8 9
2003-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-331.1 1196 1209 31.62% 16.17% 52.21%-0.43 -7.8 5
2003-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-142.7 1177 1165 52.13% 16.18% 31.69%+0.43 -4.4 6
2003-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-042.7 1165 1177 31.69% 16.18% 52.13%-0.43 +4.4 6
2003-06-03 IA Akranes D 0-050.8 1174 1207 45.88% 16.45% 37.67%+0.17 -0.2 2
2003-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-050.8 1207 1174 37.67% 16.45% 45.88%-0.17 +0.2 5
2003-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-238.7 1192 1192 50.54% 16.27% 33.19%+0.36 -8.1 3
2003-06-03 @ Grindavik W 2-038.7 1192 1192 33.19% 16.27% 50.54%-0.36 +8.1 6
2003-06-03 KR Reykjavik W 3-033.7 1175 1225 43.45% 16.49% 40.06%+0.07 +9.6 7
2003-06-03 @ KA Akureyri L 0-333.7 1225 1175 40.06% 16.49% 43.45%-0.07 -9.6 7
2003-06-16 KA Akureyri D 1-155.3 1207 1184 53.55% 16.08% 30.37%+0.49 -0.4 6
2003-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-155.3 1184 1207 30.37% 16.08% 53.55%-0.49 +0.5 8
2003-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 2-141.1 1216 1173 56.11% 15.86% 28.03%+0.60 +2.4 10
2003-06-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-241.1 1173 1216 28.03% 15.86% 56.11%-0.60 -2.4 6
2003-06-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-144.8 1169 1217 43.87% 16.49% 39.64%+0.08 +3.3 9
2003-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-244.8 1217 1169 39.64% 16.49% 43.87%-0.08 -3.3 9
2003-06-18 Grindavik W 2-142.6 1188 1184 51.07% 16.24% 32.69%+0.38 +2.8 8
2003-06-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-242.6 1184 1188 32.69% 16.24% 51.07%-0.38 -2.8 3
2003-06-19 Fram Reykjavik W 5-031.2 1200 1174 53.98% 16.04% 29.98%+0.51 +12.0 9
2003-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-531.2 1174 1200 29.98% 16.04% 53.98%-0.51 -12.0 2
2003-06-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-142.4 1181 1172 51.68% 16.20% 32.12%+0.41 +2.7 6
2003-06-21 @ Grindavik L 1-242.4 1172 1181 32.12% 16.20% 51.68%-0.41 -2.7 9
2003-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.8 1212 1191 53.25% 16.10% 30.65%+0.47 -7.3 9
2003-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-145.8 1191 1212 30.65% 16.10% 53.25%-0.47 +7.3 11
2003-06-22 IA Akranes L 1-343.6 1170 1207 45.42% 16.46% 38.12%+0.15 -6.4 6
2003-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-143.6 1207 1170 38.12% 16.46% 45.42%-0.15 +6.4 9
2003-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-143.1 1214 1218 49.88% 16.30% 33.82%+0.33 +2.9 12
2003-06-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-243.1 1218 1214 33.82% 16.30% 49.88%-0.33 -2.9 10
2003-06-25 Fram Reykjavik L 2-355.0 1198 1162 55.33% 15.93% 28.73%+0.57 -4.2 11
2003-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-255.0 1162 1198 28.73% 15.93% 55.33%-0.57 +4.2 5
2003-06-25 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-155.3 1213 1216 50.07% 16.29% 33.63%+0.34 -0.3 10
2003-06-25 @ IA Akranes D 1-155.3 1216 1213 33.63% 16.29% 50.07%-0.34 +0.3 13
2003-06-25 Grindavik L 1-249.1 1215 1184 54.61% 15.99% 29.40%+0.53 -4.3 10
2003-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-149.1 1184 1215 29.40% 15.99% 54.61%-0.53 +4.3 9
2003-06-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.7 1185 1164 53.27% 16.10% 30.63%+0.48 -4.2 8
2003-06-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-148.7 1164 1185 30.63% 16.10% 53.27%-0.48 +4.2 9
2003-06-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-035.0 1170 1205 45.69% 16.45% 37.86%+0.16 +6.3 12
2003-06-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-235.0 1205 1170 37.86% 16.45% 45.69%-0.16 -6.3 9
2003-07-05 KR Reykjavik D 0-050.8 1198 1211 48.77% 16.35% 34.87%+0.28 -0.3 10
2003-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-050.8 1211 1198 34.87% 16.35% 48.77%-0.28 +0.3 11
2003-07-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-443.2 1194 1176 52.93% 16.12% 30.95%+0.46 -10.3 11
2003-07-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-143.2 1176 1194 30.95% 16.12% 52.93%-0.46 +10.3 15
2003-07-06 KA Akureyri W 1-035.7 1217 1180 55.24% 15.94% 28.82%+0.56 +2.6 16
2003-07-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-135.7 1180 1217 28.82% 15.94% 55.24%-0.56 -2.6 8
2003-07-06 Valur Reykjavik W 2-142.8 1166 1168 50.18% 16.29% 33.53%+0.34 +2.8 8
2003-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-242.8 1168 1166 33.53% 16.29% 50.18%-0.34 -2.8 9
2003-07-07 IA Akranes W 3-249.6 1188 1213 47.12% 16.42% 36.47%+0.22 +2.9 12
2003-07-07 @ Grindavik L 2-349.6 1213 1188 36.47% 16.42% 47.12%-0.22 -2.9 10
2003-07-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-141.7 1211 1184 54.09% 16.04% 29.87%+0.51 +2.6 14
2003-07-08 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-241.7 1184 1211 29.87% 16.04% 54.09%-0.51 -2.6 11
2003-07-09 Fram Reykjavik W 2-142.0 1186 1169 52.87% 16.13% 31.01%+0.46 +2.7 18
2003-07-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-242.0 1169 1186 31.01% 16.13% 52.87%-0.46 -2.6 8
2003-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-039.3 1165 1219 42.95% 16.49% 40.56%+0.05 +3.5 12
2003-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-139.3 1219 1165 40.56% 16.49% 42.95%-0.05 -3.5 16
2003-07-10 Grindavik L 1-247.4 1178 1191 48.67% 16.36% 34.97%+0.28 -3.9 8
2003-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 2-147.4 1191 1178 34.97% 16.36% 48.67%-0.28 +3.9 15
2003-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-337.2 1210 1198 52.11% 16.18% 31.71%+0.43 -12.0 10
2003-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 3-037.2 1198 1210 31.71% 16.18% 52.11%-0.43 +12.0 13
2003-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-141.8 1214 1189 53.78% 16.06% 30.16%+0.50 +2.6 17
2003-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-241.8 1189 1214 30.16% 16.06% 53.78%-0.50 -2.6 18
2003-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-141.3 1174 1210 45.52% 16.46% 38.03%+0.15 +5.5 11
2003-07-13 @ KA Akureyri L 1-341.3 1210 1174 38.03% 16.46% 45.52%-0.15 -5.5 13
2003-07-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-246.0 1166 1216 43.55% 16.49% 39.96%+0.07 -3.6 8
2003-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.0 1216 1166 39.96% 16.49% 43.55%-0.07 +3.5 19
2003-07-15 Grindavik L 1-246.9 1169 1195 46.87% 16.42% 36.71%+0.21 -3.8 12
2003-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-146.9 1195 1169 36.71% 16.42% 46.87%-0.21 +3.8 18
2003-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-050.9 1198 1181 52.70% 16.14% 31.16%+0.45 -0.5 11
2003-07-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-050.9 1181 1198 31.16% 16.14% 52.70%-0.45 +0.5 12
2003-07-17 KA Akureyri L 2-353.0 1162 1179 48.16% 16.38% 35.46%+0.26 -3.7 8
2003-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-253.0 1179 1162 35.46% 16.38% 48.16%-0.26 +3.7 14
2003-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-155.2 1199 1219 47.70% 16.40% 35.90%+0.24 -0.2 19
2003-07-24 @ Grindavik D 1-155.2 1219 1199 35.90% 16.40% 47.70%-0.24 +0.2 20
2003-07-24 IA Akranes L 1-344.6 1186 1198 48.98% 16.35% 34.67%+0.29 -6.8 18
2003-07-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-144.6 1198 1186 34.67% 16.35% 48.98%-0.29 +6.8 14
2003-07-24 KA Akureyri W 3-248.6 1182 1183 50.33% 16.28% 33.39%+0.35 +2.7 15
2003-07-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-348.6 1183 1182 33.39% 16.28% 50.33%-0.35 -2.7 14
2003-07-24 Valur Reykjavik W 2-141.2 1205 1165 55.67% 15.90% 28.43%+0.58 +2.4 16
2003-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-241.2 1165 1205 28.43% 15.90% 55.67%-0.58 -2.5 12
2003-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 3-137.6 1216 1159 57.92% 15.68% 26.40%+0.69 +4.0 20
2003-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-337.6 1159 1216 26.40% 15.68% 57.92%-0.69 -4.0 8
2003-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-352.8 1163 1185 47.48% 16.40% 36.12%+0.23 -3.6 12
2003-07-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-252.8 1185 1163 36.12% 16.40% 47.48%-0.23 +3.6 18
2003-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-031.1 1220 1207 52.18% 16.17% 31.65%+0.43 +7.8 23
2003-07-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-331.1 1207 1220 31.65% 16.17% 52.18%-0.43 -7.8 16
2003-07-30 KR Reykjavik L 2-353.2 1204 1220 48.32% 16.37% 35.31%+0.27 -3.7 14
2003-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-253.2 1220 1204 35.31% 16.37% 48.32%-0.27 +3.7 23
2003-07-31 Grindavik W 2-035.3 1155 1199 44.39% 16.48% 39.13%+0.11 +6.5 11
2003-07-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-235.3 1199 1155 39.13% 16.48% 44.39%-0.11 -6.5 19
2003-07-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-031.5 1180 1180 50.61% 16.27% 33.13%+0.36 +8.1 17
2003-07-31 @ KA Akureyri L 0-331.5 1180 1180 33.13% 16.27% 50.61%-0.36 -8.1 18
2003-08-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-141.2 1201 1161 55.66% 15.90% 28.44%+0.58 +2.4 17
2003-08-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-241.2 1161 1201 28.44% 15.90% 55.66%-0.58 -2.5 11
2003-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-246.5 1188 1227 45.07% 16.47% 38.46%+0.13 -3.7 18
2003-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-146.5 1227 1188 38.46% 16.47% 45.07%-0.13 +3.7 26
2003-08-10 Grindavik W 1-036.8 1199 1192 51.43% 16.22% 32.35%+0.40 +2.9 19
2003-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-136.8 1192 1199 32.35% 16.22% 51.43%-0.40 -2.9 19
2003-08-10 KA Akureyri W 2-141.4 1224 1189 55.14% 15.95% 28.91%+0.56 +2.5 26
2003-08-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-241.4 1189 1224 28.91% 15.95% 55.14%-0.56 -2.5 17
2003-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 0-142.7 1171 1159 52.17% 16.17% 31.66%+0.43 -4.4 18
2003-08-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-042.7 1159 1171 31.66% 16.17% 52.17%-0.43 +4.4 15
2003-08-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-155.1 1163 1226 41.65% 16.50% 41.85%+0.00 +0.0 16
2003-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-155.1 1226 1163 41.85% 16.50% 41.65%+0.00 -0.0 27
2003-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-144.6 1159 1202 44.49% 16.48% 39.04%+0.11 +3.2 14
2003-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-244.6 1202 1159 39.04% 16.48% 44.49%-0.11 -3.2 19
2003-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.2 1189 1185 51.13% 16.24% 32.63%+0.38 -7.1 19
2003-08-17 @ Grindavik W 3-145.2 1185 1189 32.63% 16.24% 51.13%-0.38 +7.1 21
2003-08-17 IA Akranes L 2-353.1 1186 1203 48.17% 16.38% 35.45%+0.26 -3.7 17
2003-08-17 @ KA Akureyri W 3-253.1 1203 1186 35.45% 16.38% 48.17%-0.26 +3.7 20
2003-08-18 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-543.3 1231 1167 58.69% 15.59% 25.72%+0.72 -14.6 26
2003-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-143.3 1167 1231 25.72% 15.59% 58.69%-0.72 +14.6 21
2003-08-23 Valur Reykjavik W 2-031.8 1207 1163 56.16% 15.86% 27.98%+0.60 +4.8 23
2003-08-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-231.8 1163 1207 27.98% 15.86% 56.16%-0.60 -4.8 16
2003-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-143.0 1182 1162 53.21% 16.10% 30.68%+0.47 -4.5 17
2003-08-24 @ KA Akureyri W 1-043.0 1162 1182 30.68% 16.10% 53.21%-0.47 +4.5 17
2003-08-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-031.1 1226 1216 51.84% 16.19% 31.97%+0.41 +10.3 30
2003-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-431.1 1216 1226 31.97% 16.19% 51.84%-0.41 -10.3 26
2003-08-24 Grindavik L 2-353.7 1182 1182 50.42% 16.28% 33.31%+0.35 -3.8 21
2003-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-253.7 1182 1182 33.31% 16.28% 50.42%-0.35 +3.8 22
2003-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-143.1 1192 1199 49.52% 16.32% 34.16%+0.32 +2.9 24
2003-08-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.1 1199 1192 34.16% 16.32% 49.52%-0.32 -2.9 19
2003-08-30 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-155.2 1196 1178 52.91% 16.12% 30.97%+0.46 -0.4 20
2003-08-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.2 1178 1196 30.97% 16.12% 52.91%-0.46 +0.4 22
2003-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-038.2 1166 1194 46.64% 16.43% 36.93%+0.20 +3.3 20
2003-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-138.2 1194 1166 36.93% 16.43% 46.64%-0.20 -3.3 24
2003-08-31 KA Akureyri D 2-261.4 1158 1178 47.83% 16.39% 35.78%+0.25 -0.2 17
2003-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-261.4 1178 1158 35.78% 16.39% 47.83%-0.25 +0.2 18
2003-09-01 IA Akranes L 0-142.1 1206 1212 49.75% 16.31% 33.94%+0.33 -4.2 26
2003-09-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-042.1 1212 1206 33.94% 16.31% 49.75%-0.33 +4.2 26
2003-09-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-343.0 1186 1237 43.43% 16.49% 40.08%+0.07 -6.1 22
2003-09-01 @ Grindavik W 3-143.0 1237 1186 40.08% 16.49% 43.43%-0.07 +6.1 33
2003-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-336.2 1178 1191 48.73% 16.36% 34.92%+0.28 -11.3 22
2003-09-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-036.2 1191 1178 34.92% 16.36% 48.73%-0.28 +11.3 27
2003-09-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-033.9 1158 1170 48.94% 16.35% 34.71%+0.29 +5.9 20
2003-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-233.9 1170 1158 34.71% 16.35% 48.94%-0.29 -5.8 20
2003-09-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-143.8 1178 1202 47.24% 16.41% 36.35%+0.22 +3.0 21
2003-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 1-243.8 1202 1178 36.35% 16.41% 47.24%-0.22 -3.0 26
2003-09-14 Grindavik W 2-141.4 1216 1180 55.21% 15.94% 28.85%+0.56 +2.5 29
2003-09-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-241.4 1180 1216 28.85% 15.94% 55.21%-0.56 -2.5 22
2003-09-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-240.5 1243 1195 56.65% 15.81% 27.54%+0.63 -8.9 33
2003-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-040.5 1195 1243 27.54% 15.81% 56.65%-0.63 +9.0 23
2003-09-20 IA Akranes D 1-155.2 1204 1218 48.61% 16.36% 35.03%+0.28 -0.3 24
2003-09-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.2 1218 1204 35.03% 16.36% 48.61%-0.28 +0.3 30
2003-09-20 KA Akureyri D 1-155.1 1177 1181 49.99% 16.30% 33.71%+0.34 -0.3 23
2003-09-20 @ Grindavik D 1-155.1 1181 1177 33.71% 16.30% 49.99%-0.34 +0.3 22
2003-09-20 KR Reykjavik W 7-035.4 1203 1234 46.17% 16.44% 37.39%+0.18 +20.1 30
2003-09-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-735.4 1234 1203 37.39% 16.44% 46.17%-0.18 -20.0 33
2003-09-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-037.1 1164 1167 50.09% 16.29% 33.62%+0.34 +3.0 23
2003-09-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-137.1 1167 1164 33.62% 16.29% 50.09%-0.34 -3.0 22
2003-09-20 Valur Reykjavik W 6-236.2 1199 1164 55.05% 15.96% 28.99%+0.55 +6.7 29
2003-09-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-636.2 1164 1199 28.99% 15.96% 55.05%-0.55 -6.7 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-08-18 25.72% Throttur Reykjavik 1167 5 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1231 1
2 2003-09-14 27.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1195 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1243 0
3 2003-06-25 28.73% Fram Reykjavik 1162 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1198 2
4 2003-06-25 29.40% Grindavik 1184 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1215 1
5 2003-05-18 30.30% KA Akureyri 1176 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1200 2
6 2003-05-18 30.38% Valur Reykjavik 1176 2 @ Grindavik 1199 1
7 2003-06-25 30.63% Valur Reykjavik 1164 2 @ KA Akureyri 1185 1
8 2003-06-22 30.65% FH Hafnarfjordur 1191 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1212 1
9 2003-08-24 30.68% Fram Reykjavik 1162 1 @ KA Akureyri 1182 0
10 2003-07-05 30.95% Throttur Reykjavik 1176 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1194 1
11 2003-08-11 31.66% Valur Reykjavik 1159 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1171 0
12 2003-06-02 31.69% Throttur Reykjavik 1165 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1177 0
13 2003-07-10 31.71% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1198 3 @ IA Akranes 1210 0
14 2003-08-17 32.63% FH Hafnarfjordur 1185 3 @ Grindavik 1189 1
15 2003-06-03 33.19% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1192 2 @ Grindavik 1192 0
16 2003-08-24 33.31% Grindavik 1182 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1182 2
17 2003-09-01 33.94% IA Akranes 1212 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1206 0
18 2003-07-24 34.67% IA Akranes 1198 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1186 1
19 2003-09-14 34.92% FH Hafnarfjordur 1191 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1178 0
20 2003-07-10 34.97% Grindavik 1191 2 @ KA Akureyri 1178 1
21 2003-07-30 35.31% KR Reykjavik 1220 3 @ IA Akranes 1204 2
22 2003-08-17 35.45% IA Akranes 1203 3 @ KA Akureyri 1186 2
23 2003-07-17 35.46% KA Akureyri 1179 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1162 2
24 2003-07-28 36.12% FH Hafnarfjordur 1185 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1163 2
25 2003-07-15 36.71% Grindavik 1195 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1169 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-20 20.06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 7 1203 46.17% KR Reykjavik 0 1234 37.39% 16.44%
2 2003-08-18 14.60 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1167 25.72% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1231 58.69% 15.59%
3 2003-07-10 12.05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1198 31.71% @ IA Akranes 0 1210 52.11% 16.18%
4 2003-06-19 12.01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1200 53.98% Fram Reykjavik 0 1174 29.98% 16.04%
5 2003-09-14 11.35 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1191 34.92% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1178 48.73% 16.36%
6 2003-05-29 10.77 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1185 50.17% Valur Reykjavik 0 1188 33.54% 16.29%
7 2003-08-24 10.32 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1226 51.84% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1216 31.97% 16.19%
8 2003-07-05 10.30 Throttur Reykjavik 4 1176 30.95% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1194 52.93% 16.12%
9 2003-06-03 9.61 @ KA Akureyri 3 1175 43.45% KR Reykjavik 0 1225 40.06% 16.49%
10 2003-09-14 8.95 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1195 27.54% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1243 56.65% 15.81%
11 2003-07-31 8.15 @ KA Akureyri 3 1180 50.61% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1180 33.13% 16.27%
12 2003-06-03 8.07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1192 33.19% @ Grindavik 0 1192 50.54% 16.27%
13 2003-06-01 7.83 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1209 52.21% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1196 31.62% 16.17%
14 2003-07-29 7.83 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1220 52.18% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1207 31.65% 16.17%
15 2003-06-22 7.32 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1191 30.65% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1212 53.25% 16.10%
16 2003-05-24 7.26 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1181 48.41% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1196 35.22% 16.37%
17 2003-08-17 7.07 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1185 32.63% @ Grindavik 1 1189 51.13% 16.24%
18 2003-07-24 6.80 IA Akranes 3 1198 34.67% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1186 48.98% 16.35%
19 2003-09-20 6.69 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1199 55.05% Valur Reykjavik 2 1164 28.99% 15.96%
20 2003-07-31 6.49 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1155 44.39% Grindavik 0 1199 39.13% 16.48%
21 2003-06-22 6.37 IA Akranes 3 1207 38.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1170 45.42% 16.46%
22 2003-06-26 6.31 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1170 45.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1205 37.86% 16.45%
23 2003-09-01 6.13 KR Reykjavik 3 1237 40.08% @ Grindavik 1 1186 43.43% 16.49%
24 2003-09-14 5.85 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1158 48.94% Fram Reykjavik 0 1170 34.71% 16.35%
25 2003-07-13 5.48 @ KA Akureyri 3 1174 45.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1210 38.03% 16.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-08-31 61.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1158 47.83% KA Akureyri 2 1178 35.78% 16.39%
2 2003-06-16 55.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1207 53.55% KA Akureyri 1 1184 30.37% 16.08%
3 2003-06-25 55.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1213 50.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1216 33.63% 16.29%
4 2003-05-18 55.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1185 47.71% IA Akranes 1 1206 35.89% 16.40%
5 2003-07-24 55.2 @ Grindavik 1 1199 47.70% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1219 35.90% 16.40%
6 2003-08-30 55.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1196 52.91% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1178 30.97% 16.12%
7 2003-09-20 55.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1204 48.61% IA Akranes 1 1218 35.03% 16.36%
8 2003-05-25 55.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1176 44.11% KR Reykjavik 1 1222 39.41% 16.48%
9 2003-08-14 55.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1163 41.65% KR Reykjavik 1 1226 41.85% 16.50%
10 2003-09-20 55.1 @ Grindavik 1 1177 49.99% KA Akureyri 1 1181 33.71% 16.30%
11 2003-06-25 55.0 Fram Reykjavik 3 1162 28.73% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1198 55.33% 15.93%
12 2003-05-18 54.6 KA Akureyri 3 1176 30.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1200 53.63% 16.07%
13 2003-08-24 53.7 Grindavik 3 1182 33.31% @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1182 50.42% 16.28%
14 2003-07-30 53.2 KR Reykjavik 3 1220 35.31% @ IA Akranes 2 1204 48.32% 16.37%
15 2003-08-17 53.1 IA Akranes 3 1203 35.45% @ KA Akureyri 2 1186 48.17% 16.38%
16 2003-07-17 53.0 KA Akureyri 3 1179 35.46% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1162 48.16% 16.38%
17 2003-07-28 52.8 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1185 36.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1163 47.48% 16.40%
18 2003-07-17 50.9 @ IA Akranes 0 1198 52.70% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1181 31.16% 16.14%
19 2003-05-24 50.8 @ KA Akureyri 0 1180 49.84% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1185 33.85% 16.31%
20 2003-06-03 50.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1174 45.88% IA Akranes 0 1207 37.67% 16.45%
21 2003-07-05 50.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1198 48.77% KR Reykjavik 0 1211 34.87% 16.35%
22 2003-07-07 49.6 @ Grindavik 3 1188 47.12% IA Akranes 2 1213 36.47% 16.42%
23 2003-06-25 49.1 Grindavik 2 1184 29.40% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1215 54.61% 15.99%
24 2003-05-18 48.8 Valur Reykjavik 2 1176 30.38% @ Grindavik 1 1199 53.54% 16.08%
25 2003-06-25 48.7 Valur Reykjavik 2 1164 30.63% @ KA Akureyri 1 1185 53.27% 16.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-06-01 31.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1209 52.21% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1196 31.62% 16.17%
2 2003-07-29 31.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1220 52.18% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1207 31.65% 16.17%
3 2003-08-24 31.1 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1226 51.84% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1216 31.97% 16.19%
4 2003-06-19 31.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1200 53.98% Fram Reykjavik 0 1174 29.98% 16.04%
5 2003-05-29 31.5 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1185 50.17% Valur Reykjavik 0 1188 33.54% 16.29%
6 2003-07-31 31.5 @ KA Akureyri 3 1180 50.61% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1180 33.13% 16.27%
7 2003-08-23 31.8 @ IA Akranes 2 1207 56.16% Valur Reykjavik 0 1163 27.98% 15.86%
8 2003-05-26 33.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1207 52.08% Grindavik 0 1195 31.75% 16.18%
9 2003-06-03 33.7 @ KA Akureyri 3 1175 43.45% KR Reykjavik 0 1225 40.06% 16.49%
10 2003-09-14 33.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1158 48.94% Fram Reykjavik 0 1170 34.71% 16.35%
11 2003-06-26 35.0 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1170 45.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1205 37.86% 16.45%
12 2003-07-31 35.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1155 44.39% Grindavik 0 1199 39.13% 16.48%
13 2003-09-20 35.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 7 1203 46.17% KR Reykjavik 0 1234 37.39% 16.44%
14 2003-07-06 35.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1217 55.24% KA Akureyri 0 1180 28.82% 15.94%
15 2003-09-14 36.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1191 34.92% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1178 48.73% 16.36%
16 2003-09-20 36.2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1199 55.05% Valur Reykjavik 2 1164 28.99% 15.96%
17 2003-05-29 36.7 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1222 52.15% IA Akranes 0 1210 31.67% 16.17%
18 2003-08-10 36.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1199 51.43% Grindavik 0 1192 32.35% 16.22%
19 2003-09-20 37.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1164 50.09% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1167 33.62% 16.29%
20 2003-07-10 37.2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1198 31.71% @ IA Akranes 0 1210 52.11% 16.18%
21 2003-07-27 37.6 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1216 57.92% Fram Reykjavik 1 1159 26.40% 15.68%
22 2003-05-24 37.9 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1181 48.41% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1196 35.22% 16.37%
23 2003-05-29 38.1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1189 47.25% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1212 36.34% 16.41%
24 2003-05-24 38.2 @ IA Akranes 3 1206 55.99% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1164 28.14% 15.87%
25 2003-08-31 38.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1166 46.64% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1194 36.93% 16.43%