Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 2003
‹ ›

2003 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

33 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 2002.0

Relegated

Valur Reykjavik

20 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 22 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

4.95 points above expected

33 points · 28.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valur Reykjavik

3.80 points below expected

20 points · 23.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 18 10 3 5 33 28 27 +1 28.05 +4.95
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 3 6 30 36 24 +12 25.26 +4.74
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 27 21 +6 26.87 +3.13
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 9 2 7 29 29 24 +5 27.38 +1.62
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 7 3 8 24 25 25 0 26.17 -2.17
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 24 31 -7 25.25 -2.25
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 22 30 -8 23.66 -0.66
8 KA Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 29 27 +2 24.87 -2.87
9 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 18 7 1 10 22 27 29 -2 24.13 -2.13
10 Valur Reykjavik Relegated 18 6 2 10 20 24 33 -9 23.80 -3.80

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1233 30 25.26 +4.74 81.7% 5 16 21 25 29 35 49
IA Akranes 1229 30 26.87 +3.13 73.5% 7 17 23 27 31 36 47
KR Reykjavik 1225 33 28.05 +4.95 82.0% 7 19 24 28 32 37 51
Fylkir Reykjavik 1216 29 27.38 +1.62 63.8% 6 18 23 27 31 37 49
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1215 24 26.17 -2.17 38.8% 6 17 22 26 30 36 47
KA Akureyri 1192 22 24.87 -2.87 34.6% 6 16 21 25 29 34 46
Grindavik 1188 23 25.25 -2.25 38.6% 5 16 21 25 29 35 48
Fram Reykjavik 1178 23 23.66 -0.66 49.5% 5 14 20 24 27 33 45
Throttur Reykjavik 1174 22 24.13 -2.13 39.7% 4 15 20 24 28 34 47
Valur Reykjavik 1168 20 23.80 -3.80 28.4% 4 14 20 24 28 34 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
0-0-2
3.09
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
2.84
0-2-0
2.69
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
2.92
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.58
 —
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.87
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.13
 —
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
3.27
1-0-1
3.20
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.71
 —
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
2.88
1-0-1
3.04
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.12
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.07
 —
0-1-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.72
2-0-0
3.04
2-0-0
3.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.95
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-0-2
3.07
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.05
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.68
2-0-0
2.60
 —
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.00
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.07
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.18
 —
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.27
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.41
0-0-2
2.80
0-0-2
2.64
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.53
 —
1-0-1
2.84
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.76
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.31 +6.4
Allowed 0.51 -8.6
Differential 0.51 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%3.89%3.33%1.11%1.11%20.00%
16.11%10.00%13.33%5.56%1.11%0.56%36.67%
23.89%13.33%1.11%5.56%—0.56%24.44%
33.33%5.56%5.56%———14.44%
41.11%1.11%————2.22%
5+1.11%0.56%0.56%———2.22%
Total20.00%36.67%24.44%14.44%2.22%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.90
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.33 +0.67
SD 1.78 1.19 2.43
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
116.67%5.56%16.67%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 0.81 1.41 1.69
CV 0.66 0.85 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.33 +0.28
SD 1.50 1.33 2.19
CV 0.93 1.00 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
1—11.11%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
2—22.22%————22.22%
3——16.67%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total—38.89%50.00%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.03 0.67 1.29
CV 0.77 0.39 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%22.22%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
3—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.17 +0.33
SD 1.10 0.99 1.33
CV 0.73 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.38 2.14
CV 0.86 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
311.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.50 +0.11
SD 1.09 0.99 1.45
CV 0.68 0.66 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
2—27.78%————27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.50 +0.06
SD 1.20 1.58 2.36
CV 0.77 1.05 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.61 -0.11
SD 1.38 1.04 2.00
CV 0.92 0.64 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
111.11%5.56%22.22%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.83 -0.50
SD 0.97 1.50 1.86
CV 0.73 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 33 28.05 +4.95
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 30 25.26 +4.74
3 IA Akranes 30 26.87 +3.13
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 27.38 +1.62
5 Fram Reykjavik 23 23.66 -0.66

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 20 23.80 -3.80
2 KA Akureyri 22 24.87 -2.87
3 Grindavik 23 25.25 -2.25
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 26.17 -2.17
5 Throttur Reykjavik 22 24.13 -2.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 5 Jun 21 – Jul 15 1 in 109
2 IA Akranes 5 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 48
3 KR Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 10 1 in 30
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Aug 31 1 in 16
5 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 29 – Jun 18 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 47
2 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 33
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 29 – Jun 22 1 in 29
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 9 – Jul 27 1 in 23
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 25 – Jul 8 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 9 Jul 5 – Sep 1 1 in 66
2 Grindavik 6 Jun 21 – Jul 24 1 in 29
3 IA Akranes 6 Aug 10 – Sep 20 1 in 20
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 14 – Aug 10 1 in 9
5 KA Akureyri 3 Aug 31 – Sep 20 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 14
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 11
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 19 1 in 10
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 10
5 Grindavik 4 Jul 24 – Aug 17 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik18.10%14.50%13.08%10.72%10.41%8.93%7.53%6.83%5.51%4.39%
FH Hafnarfjordur9.45%10.29%10.51%10.72%10.18%10.23%9.42%10.82%9.14%9.24%
IA Akranes14.19%13.06%12.11%11.52%9.85%9.96%8.79%7.60%7.34%5.58%
Fylkir Reykjavik15.65%14.17%12.45%10.89%10.39%8.92%8.70%7.88%6.26%4.69%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar10.75%10.87%10.71%11.26%11.07%10.49%9.72%8.90%8.50%7.73%
Grindavik8.15%8.27%9.74%9.87%10.31%9.96%10.74%10.52%11.20%11.24%
Fram Reykjavik4.66%6.16%6.84%8.42%9.39%10.08%11.71%12.52%13.79%16.43%
KA Akureyri7.94%8.98%9.34%9.65%9.85%10.58%10.77%10.86%11.19%10.84%
Throttur Reykjavik6.03%7.06%8.14%8.89%9.71%10.56%10.93%11.83%12.74%14.11%
Valur Reykjavik5.08%6.64%7.08%8.06%8.84%10.29%11.69%12.24%14.33%15.75%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Clear Edge
51.11%15.56%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.4
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.61 * Some Luck: 4.61 to 6.91 * Lucky: 6.91 to 9.22 * Wild Swing: 9.22 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.26 * Close: 2.26 to 3.38 * Off: 3.38 to 4.51 * Way Off: 4.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.4 * A Surprise: 1.4 to 2.24 * Several Surprises: 2.24 to 3.07 * Many Surprises: 3.07 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.11 points
As Expected
05.7614
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.826
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
82.02%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
28.41%
Valur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.70
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
59%
Even
50%61%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.20
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.29
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.87
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Upset-Prone
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
36%
Very Shaky
0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.28
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4303161.001.56968
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.022
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 90.10% 9.90%
Fylkir Reykjavik 89.05% 10.95%
IA Akranes 87.08% 12.92%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 83.77% 16.23%
FH Hafnarfjordur 81.62% 18.38%
KA Akureyri 77.97% 22.03%
Grindavik 77.56% 22.44%
Throttur Reykjavik 73.15% 26.85%
Valur Reykjavik 69.92% 30.08%
Fram Reykjavik 69.78% 30.22%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2003-05-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1213 1192 53.4% 16.1% 30.6% +4.5 3
2003-05-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1192 1213 30.6% 16.1% 53.4% -4.5 0
2003-05-18 IA Akranes D 1-1 1196 1216 47.7% 16.4% 35.9% -0.2 1
2003-05-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1216 1196 35.9% 16.4% 47.7% +0.2 1
2003-05-18 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1210 1187 53.6% 16.1% 30.3% -4.0 0
2003-05-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1187 1210 30.3% 16.1% 53.6% +4.0 3
2003-05-18 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1210 1187 53.6% 16.1% 30.3% -4.2 0
2003-05-18 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1187 1210 30.3% 16.1% 53.6% +4.2 3
2003-05-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1178 1230 43.3% 16.5% 40.2% -3.5 0
2003-05-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1230 1178 40.2% 16.5% 43.3% +3.5 3
2003-05-24 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1191 1196 49.9% 16.3% 33.9% -0.4 4
2003-05-24 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1196 1191 33.9% 16.3% 49.9% +0.3 2
2003-05-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1191 1206 48.4% 16.4% 35.2% +7.3 6
2003-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1206 1191 35.2% 16.4% 48.4% -7.3 0
2003-05-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1216 1174 56.0% 15.9% 28.1% +4.2 4
2003-05-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1174 1216 28.1% 15.9% 56.0% -4.2 0
2003-05-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1187 1233 44.1% 16.5% 39.4% -0.1 1
2003-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1233 1187 39.4% 16.5% 44.1% +0.1 4
2003-05-26 Grindavik W 2-0 1218 1206 52.1% 16.2% 31.7% +5.4 6
2003-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1206 1218 31.7% 16.2% 52.1% -5.4 0
2003-05-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1199 1223 47.2% 16.4% 36.4% +3.2 3
2003-05-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1223 1199 36.4% 16.4% 47.2% -3.2 6
2003-05-29 IA Akranes W 1-0 1233 1221 52.2% 16.2% 31.7% +2.9 7
2003-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1221 1233 31.7% 16.2% 52.2% -2.9 4
2003-05-29 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1170 1191 47.7% 16.4% 35.9% +5.2 3
2003-05-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1191 1170 35.9% 16.4% 47.7% -5.2 4
2003-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 4-0 1196 1198 50.2% 16.3% 33.5% +10.8 5
2003-05-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1198 1196 33.5% 16.3% 50.2% -10.8 6
2003-05-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1200 1187 52.3% 16.2% 31.6% +2.6 3
2003-05-30 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1187 1200 31.6% 16.2% 52.3% -2.5 1
2003-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1220 1207 52.2% 16.2% 31.6% +7.8 9
2003-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1207 1220 31.6% 16.2% 52.2% -7.8 5
2003-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1187 1175 52.1% 16.2% 31.7% -4.4 6
2003-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1175 1187 31.7% 16.2% 52.1% +4.4 6
2003-06-03 IA Akranes D 0-0 1184 1218 45.9% 16.4% 37.7% -0.2 2
2003-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1218 1184 37.7% 16.4% 45.9% +0.2 5
2003-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1203 1202 50.6% 16.3% 33.2% -8.1 3
2003-06-03 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1202 1203 33.2% 16.3% 50.6% +8.1 6
2003-06-03 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1185 1236 43.4% 16.5% 40.1% +9.6 7
2003-06-03 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1236 1185 40.1% 16.5% 43.4% -9.6 7
2003-06-16 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1218 1195 53.5% 16.1% 30.4% -0.5 6
2003-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1195 1218 30.4% 16.1% 53.5% +0.5 8
2003-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1226 1183 56.1% 15.9% 28.0% +2.4 10
2003-06-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1183 1226 28.0% 15.9% 56.1% -2.4 6
2003-06-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1180 1228 43.8% 16.5% 39.7% +3.3 9
2003-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1228 1180 39.7% 16.5% 43.8% -3.3 9
2003-06-18 Grindavik W 2-1 1199 1195 51.1% 16.2% 32.7% +2.8 8
2003-06-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1195 1199 32.7% 16.2% 51.1% -2.8 3
2003-06-19 Fram Reykjavik W 5-0 1210 1184 54.0% 16.1% 30.0% +12.0 9
2003-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1184 1210 30.0% 16.1% 54.0% -12.0 2
2003-06-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1192 1183 51.7% 16.2% 32.1% +2.7 6
2003-06-21 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1183 1192 32.1% 16.2% 51.7% -2.7 9
2003-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1222 1202 53.2% 16.1% 30.6% -7.3 9
2003-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1202 1222 30.6% 16.1% 53.2% +7.3 11
2003-06-22 IA Akranes L 1-3 1181 1218 45.4% 16.5% 38.1% -6.4 6
2003-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1218 1181 38.1% 16.5% 45.4% +6.4 9
2003-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1224 1229 49.9% 16.3% 33.8% +2.9 12
2003-06-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1229 1224 33.8% 16.3% 49.9% -2.9 10
2003-06-25 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1209 1172 55.3% 15.9% 28.7% -4.2 11
2003-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1172 1209 28.7% 15.9% 55.3% +4.1 5
2003-06-25 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1224 1227 50.0% 16.3% 33.7% -0.3 10
2003-06-25 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1227 1224 33.7% 16.3% 50.0% +0.3 13
2003-06-25 Grindavik L 1-2 1226 1195 54.6% 16.0% 29.4% -4.3 10
2003-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1195 1226 29.4% 16.0% 54.6% +4.3 9
2003-06-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1195 1174 53.3% 16.1% 30.6% -4.2 8
2003-06-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1174 1195 30.6% 16.1% 53.3% +4.2 9
2003-06-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1180 1215 45.7% 16.4% 37.9% +6.3 12
2003-06-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1215 1180 37.9% 16.4% 45.7% -6.3 9
2003-07-05 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1209 1222 48.8% 16.4% 34.9% -0.3 10
2003-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1222 1209 34.9% 16.4% 48.8% +0.3 11
2003-07-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1205 1187 52.9% 16.1% 30.9% -10.3 11
2003-07-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1187 1205 30.9% 16.1% 52.9% +10.3 15
2003-07-06 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1228 1191 55.3% 15.9% 28.8% +2.6 16
2003-07-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1191 1228 28.8% 15.9% 55.3% -2.6 8
2003-07-06 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1176 1178 50.2% 16.3% 33.5% +2.8 8
2003-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1178 1176 33.5% 16.3% 50.2% -2.8 9
2003-07-07 IA Akranes W 3-2 1199 1224 47.1% 16.4% 36.4% +2.9 12
2003-07-07 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1224 1199 36.4% 16.4% 47.1% -2.9 10
2003-07-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1222 1195 54.1% 16.0% 29.9% +2.6 14
2003-07-08 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1195 1222 29.9% 16.0% 54.1% -2.6 11
2003-07-09 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1197 1179 52.8% 16.1% 31.0% +2.6 18
2003-07-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1179 1197 31.0% 16.1% 52.8% -2.7 8
2003-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1176 1230 42.9% 16.5% 40.6% +3.5 12
2003-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1230 1176 40.6% 16.5% 42.9% -3.5 16
2003-07-10 Grindavik L 1-2 1189 1202 48.7% 16.4% 35.0% -3.9 8
2003-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1202 1189 35.0% 16.4% 48.7% +3.9 15
2003-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1221 1209 52.1% 16.2% 31.7% -12.0 10
2003-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1209 1221 31.7% 16.2% 52.1% +12.0 13
2003-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1224 1200 53.8% 16.1% 30.1% +2.6 17
2003-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1200 1224 30.1% 16.1% 53.8% -2.6 18
2003-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1185 1221 45.5% 16.5% 38.0% +5.5 11
2003-07-13 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1221 1185 38.0% 16.5% 45.5% -5.5 13
2003-07-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1177 1227 43.5% 16.5% 40.0% -3.5 8
2003-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1227 1177 40.0% 16.5% 43.5% +3.5 19
2003-07-15 Grindavik L 1-2 1179 1206 46.8% 16.4% 36.8% -3.8 12
2003-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1206 1179 36.8% 16.4% 46.8% +3.8 18
2003-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1209 1192 52.7% 16.1% 31.2% -0.5 11
2003-07-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1192 1209 31.2% 16.1% 52.7% +0.5 12
2003-07-17 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1173 1190 48.2% 16.4% 35.5% -3.7 8
2003-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1190 1173 35.5% 16.4% 48.2% +3.7 14
2003-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1210 1230 47.7% 16.4% 35.9% -0.2 19
2003-07-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1230 1210 35.9% 16.4% 47.7% +0.2 20
2003-07-24 IA Akranes L 1-3 1197 1208 49.0% 16.4% 34.7% -6.8 18
2003-07-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1208 1197 34.7% 16.4% 49.0% +6.8 14
2003-07-24 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1193 1194 50.3% 16.3% 33.4% +2.7 15
2003-07-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1194 1193 33.4% 16.3% 50.3% -2.7 14
2003-07-24 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1215 1175 55.7% 15.9% 28.4% +2.4 16
2003-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1175 1215 28.4% 15.9% 55.7% -2.4 12
2003-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1227 1169 57.9% 15.7% 26.4% +4.0 20
2003-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1169 1227 26.4% 15.7% 57.9% -4.0 8
2003-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1173 1195 47.4% 16.4% 36.1% -3.6 12
2003-07-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1195 1173 36.1% 16.4% 47.4% +3.6 18
2003-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1230 1218 52.2% 16.2% 31.6% +7.8 23
2003-07-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1218 1230 31.6% 16.2% 52.2% -7.8 16
2003-07-30 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1215 1231 48.3% 16.4% 35.3% -3.7 14
2003-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1231 1215 35.3% 16.4% 48.3% +3.7 23
2003-07-31 Grindavik W 2-0 1165 1209 44.4% 16.5% 39.1% +6.5 11
2003-07-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1209 1165 39.1% 16.5% 44.4% -6.5 19
2003-07-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1191 1190 50.6% 16.3% 33.1% +8.2 17
2003-07-31 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1190 1191 33.1% 16.3% 50.6% -8.2 18
2003-08-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1211 1172 55.6% 15.9% 28.4% +2.5 17
2003-08-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1172 1211 28.4% 15.9% 55.6% -2.4 11
2003-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1199 1238 45.1% 16.5% 38.5% -3.6 18
2003-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1238 1199 38.5% 16.5% 45.1% +3.6 26
2003-08-10 Grindavik W 1-0 1210 1203 51.4% 16.2% 32.4% +2.9 19
2003-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1203 1210 32.4% 16.2% 51.4% -2.9 19
2003-08-10 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1235 1199 55.1% 16.0% 28.9% +2.5 26
2003-08-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1199 1235 28.9% 16.0% 55.1% -2.5 17
2003-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1182 1169 52.2% 16.2% 31.6% -4.4 18
2003-08-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1169 1182 31.6% 16.2% 52.2% +4.4 15
2003-08-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1174 1237 41.6% 16.5% 41.9% +0.0 16
2003-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1237 1174 41.9% 16.5% 41.6% +0.0 27
2003-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1169 1213 44.5% 16.5% 39.0% +3.2 14
2003-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1213 1169 39.0% 16.5% 44.5% -3.2 19
2003-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1200 1195 51.1% 16.2% 32.6% -7.1 19
2003-08-17 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1195 1200 32.6% 16.2% 51.1% +7.1 21
2003-08-17 IA Akranes L 2-3 1197 1214 48.2% 16.4% 35.4% -3.7 17
2003-08-17 @ KA Akureyri W 3-2 1214 1197 35.4% 16.4% 48.2% +3.7 20
2003-08-18 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-5 1242 1178 58.7% 15.6% 25.7% -14.6 26
2003-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-1 1178 1242 25.7% 15.6% 58.7% +14.6 21
2003-08-23 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1217 1174 56.2% 15.8% 28.0% +4.8 23
2003-08-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1174 1217 28.0% 15.8% 56.2% -4.8 16
2003-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1193 1173 53.2% 16.1% 30.7% -4.5 17
2003-08-24 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1173 1193 30.7% 16.1% 53.2% +4.5 17
2003-08-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1237 1227 51.8% 16.2% 32.0% +10.3 30
2003-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1227 1237 32.0% 16.2% 51.8% -10.3 26
2003-08-24 Grindavik L 2-3 1192 1193 50.4% 16.3% 33.3% -3.8 21
2003-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1193 1192 33.3% 16.3% 50.4% +3.8 22
2003-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1202 1209 49.5% 16.3% 34.2% +2.9 24
2003-08-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1209 1202 34.2% 16.3% 49.5% -2.9 19
2003-08-30 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1207 1188 52.9% 16.1% 31.0% -0.4 20
2003-08-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1188 1207 31.0% 16.1% 52.9% +0.4 22
2003-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1177 1205 46.6% 16.4% 36.9% +3.3 20
2003-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1205 1177 36.9% 16.4% 46.6% -3.3 24
2003-08-31 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1169 1189 47.8% 16.4% 35.8% -0.2 17
2003-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1189 1169 35.8% 16.4% 47.8% +0.2 18
2003-09-01 IA Akranes L 0-1 1217 1222 49.8% 16.3% 33.9% -4.2 26
2003-09-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1222 1217 33.9% 16.3% 49.8% +4.2 26
2003-09-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1197 1248 43.4% 16.5% 40.1% -6.1 22
2003-09-01 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1248 1197 40.1% 16.5% 43.4% +6.1 33
2003-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1189 1202 48.7% 16.4% 34.9% -11.3 22
2003-09-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1202 1189 34.9% 16.4% 48.7% +11.4 27
2003-09-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1169 1180 48.9% 16.4% 34.7% +5.9 20
2003-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1180 1169 34.7% 16.4% 48.9% -5.9 20
2003-09-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1189 1213 47.2% 16.4% 36.4% +3.0 21
2003-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1213 1189 36.4% 16.4% 47.2% -3.0 26
2003-09-14 Grindavik W 2-1 1226 1191 55.2% 15.9% 28.9% +2.5 29
2003-09-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1191 1226 28.9% 15.9% 55.2% -2.5 22
2003-09-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1254 1206 56.7% 15.8% 27.5% -9.0 33
2003-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1206 1254 27.5% 15.8% 56.7% +9.0 23
2003-09-20 IA Akranes D 1-1 1215 1229 48.6% 16.4% 35.0% -0.3 24
2003-09-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1229 1215 35.0% 16.4% 48.6% +0.3 30
2003-09-20 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1188 1192 50.0% 16.3% 33.7% -0.3 23
2003-09-20 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1192 1188 33.7% 16.3% 50.0% +0.3 22
2003-09-20 KR Reykjavik W 7-0 1213 1245 46.2% 16.4% 37.4% +20.1 30
2003-09-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-7 1245 1213 37.4% 16.4% 46.2% -20.0 33
2003-09-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1175 1177 50.1% 16.3% 33.6% +3.0 23
2003-09-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1177 1175 33.6% 16.3% 50.1% -3.0 22
2003-09-20 Valur Reykjavik W 6-2 1210 1175 55.1% 16.0% 28.9% +6.7 29
2003-09-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-6 1175 1210 28.9% 16.0% 55.1% -6.7 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-08-18 25.69% Throttur Reykjavik 1178 5 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1242 1
2 2003-09-14 27.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1206 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1254 0
3 2003-06-25 28.74% Fram Reykjavik 1172 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1209 2
4 2003-06-25 29.40% Grindavik 1195 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1226 1
5 2003-05-18 30.31% KA Akureyri 1187 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1210 2
6 2003-05-18 30.34% Valur Reykjavik 1187 2 @ Grindavik 1210 1
7 2003-06-25 30.59% Valur Reykjavik 1174 2 @ KA Akureyri 1195 1
8 2003-06-22 30.65% FH Hafnarfjordur 1202 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1222 1
9 2003-08-24 30.68% Fram Reykjavik 1173 1 @ KA Akureyri 1193 0
10 2003-07-05 30.94% Throttur Reykjavik 1187 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1205 1
11 2003-08-11 31.64% Valur Reykjavik 1169 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1182 0
12 2003-07-10 31.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1209 3 @ IA Akranes 1221 0
13 2003-06-02 31.71% Throttur Reykjavik 1175 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1187 0
14 2003-08-17 32.62% FH Hafnarfjordur 1195 3 @ Grindavik 1200 1
15 2003-06-03 33.17% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1202 2 @ Grindavik 1203 0
16 2003-08-24 33.33% Grindavik 1193 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1192 2
17 2003-09-01 33.92% IA Akranes 1222 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1217 0
18 2003-07-24 34.68% IA Akranes 1208 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1197 1
19 2003-09-14 34.93% FH Hafnarfjordur 1202 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1189 0
20 2003-07-10 34.97% Grindavik 1202 2 @ KA Akureyri 1189 1
21 2003-07-30 35.32% KR Reykjavik 1231 3 @ IA Akranes 1215 2
22 2003-08-17 35.44% IA Akranes 1214 3 @ KA Akureyri 1197 2
23 2003-07-17 35.46% KA Akureyri 1190 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1173 2
24 2003-07-28 36.15% FH Hafnarfjordur 1195 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1173 2
25 2003-07-15 36.75% Grindavik 1206 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1179 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-20 20.06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 7 1213 46.16% KR Reykjavik 0 1245 37.40% 16.44%
2 2003-08-18 14.61 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1178 25.69% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1242 58.72% 15.59%
3 2003-07-10 12.05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1209 31.70% @ IA Akranes 0 1221 52.12% 16.18%
4 2003-06-19 12.02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1210 53.97% Fram Reykjavik 0 1184 29.99% 16.05%
5 2003-09-14 11.35 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1202 34.93% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1189 48.72% 16.36%
6 2003-05-29 10.76 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1196 50.21% Valur Reykjavik 0 1198 33.50% 16.29%
7 2003-08-24 10.32 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1237 51.83% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1227 31.98% 16.19%
8 2003-07-05 10.30 Throttur Reykjavik 4 1187 30.94% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1205 52.94% 16.12%
9 2003-06-03 9.61 @ KA Akureyri 3 1185 43.44% KR Reykjavik 0 1236 40.07% 16.49%
10 2003-09-14 8.95 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1206 27.52% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1254 56.67% 15.81%
11 2003-07-31 8.15 @ KA Akureyri 3 1191 50.63% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1190 33.11% 16.26%
12 2003-06-03 8.07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1202 33.17% @ Grindavik 0 1203 50.56% 16.27%
13 2003-06-01 7.82 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1220 52.23% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1207 31.60% 16.17%
14 2003-07-29 7.82 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1230 52.21% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1218 31.62% 16.17%
15 2003-06-22 7.33 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1202 30.65% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1222 53.25% 16.10%
16 2003-05-24 7.26 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1191 48.38% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1206 35.25% 16.37%
17 2003-08-17 7.06 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1195 32.62% @ Grindavik 1 1200 51.15% 16.24%
18 2003-07-24 6.80 IA Akranes 3 1208 34.68% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1197 48.97% 16.35%
19 2003-09-20 6.68 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1210 55.10% Valur Reykjavik 2 1175 28.95% 15.95%
20 2003-07-31 6.48 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1165 44.38% Grindavik 0 1209 39.14% 16.48%
21 2003-06-22 6.36 IA Akranes 3 1218 38.15% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1181 45.39% 16.46%
22 2003-06-26 6.31 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1180 45.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1215 37.87% 16.45%
23 2003-09-01 6.13 KR Reykjavik 3 1248 40.08% @ Grindavik 1 1197 43.43% 16.49%
24 2003-09-14 5.86 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1169 48.91% Fram Reykjavik 0 1180 34.74% 16.35%
25 2003-07-13 5.48 @ KA Akureyri 3 1185 45.53% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1221 38.01% 16.46%