2003 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

5.33 points above expected

33 points · 27.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

3.44 points below expected

22 points · 25.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 18 10 3 5 33 28 27 +1 27.7 +5.33
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 3 6 30 36 24 +12 25.4 +4.61
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 27 21 +6 26.7 +3.30
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 9 2 7 29 29 24 +5 27.6 +1.36
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 7 3 8 24 25 25 0 25.9 -1.90
6 Grindavik 18 7 2 9 23 24 31 -7 24.5 -1.46
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 7 2 9 23 22 30 -8 23.0 +0.02
8 KA Akureyri 18 6 4 8 22 29 27 +2 25.4 -3.44
9 Throttur Reykjavik 18 7 1 10 22 27 29 -2 25.2 -3.21
10 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 2 10 20 24 33 -9 23.4 -3.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1260 30 25.39 +4.61 80.9% 5 16 21 25 29 35 46
IA Akranes 1236 30 26.70 +3.30 74.9% 6 17 23 27 31 36 49
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1218 24 25.90 -1.90 40.7% 6 17 22 26 30 35 47
KR Reykjavik 1217 33 27.67 +5.33 83.9% 9 18 24 28 32 37 47
Fylkir Reykjavik 1213 29 27.64 +1.36 62.6% 8 18 24 28 32 37 49
KA Akureyri 1198 22 25.44 -3.44 31.1% 3 16 22 25 29 35 45
Throttur Reykjavik 1177 22 25.21 -3.21 32.5% 5 16 21 25 29 35 46
Grindavik 1172 23 24.46 -1.46 44.0% 4 15 20 24 28 34 46
Fram Reykjavik 1171 23 22.98 +0.02 54.2% 3 14 19 23 27 32 48
Valur Reykjavik 1156 20 23.35 -3.35 31.3% 3 14 19 23 27 33 45

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
3.22
0-0-2
2.60
2-0-0
2.93
0-2-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
2.92
Fram Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.44
0-0-2
2.49
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.88
Fylkir Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.17
1-1-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
3.28
1-0-1
3.26
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-2
2.78
1-1-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
3.02
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.14
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.89
0-0-2
2.73
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.18
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.92
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
3.07
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.05
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.77
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
3.12
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
2.93
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.94
1-1-0
3.28
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
2.39
0-0-2
3.02
0-0-2
2.79
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.94
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.54
0-1-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.72

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%3.89%3.33%1.11%1.11%20.00%
16.11%10.00%13.33%5.56%1.11%0.56%36.67%
23.89%13.33%1.11%5.56%0.56%24.44%
33.33%5.56%5.56%14.44%
41.11%1.11%2.22%
5+1.11%0.56%0.56%2.22%
Total20.00%36.67%24.44%14.44%2.22%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.51
Mean allowed1.51
StdDev scored1.22
StdDev allowed1.22
Mean total goals/game3.01
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.186
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
211.11%5.56%16.67%
35.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.78
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.306
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
116.67%5.56%16.67%11.11%50.00%
25.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%22.22%5.56%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored0.81
StdDev allowed1.41
Mean total goals/game2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.086
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%
25.56%16.67%22.22%
311.11%5.56%16.67%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.50
StdDev allowed1.33
Mean total goals/game2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.197
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%22.22%
111.11%16.67%11.11%38.89%
222.22%22.22%
316.67%16.67%
4
5+
Total38.89%50.00%11.11%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.03
StdDev allowed0.67
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.114
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%22.22%27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
316.67%5.56%22.22%
4
5+
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%16.67%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.17
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed0.99
Mean total goals/game2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.190
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
111.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%50.00%
211.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%16.67%22.22%5.56%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored1.20
StdDev allowed1.38
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.383
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
111.11%16.67%5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%
311.11%5.56%11.11%27.78%
4
5+
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%100%

KA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.09
StdDev allowed0.99
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.027
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
227.78%27.78%
311.11%5.56%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.20
StdDev allowed1.58
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.434
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%22.22%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%38.89%
25.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%27.78%100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored1.38
StdDev allowed1.04
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.349
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
111.11%5.56%22.22%5.56%44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
3
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.83
StdDev scored0.97
StdDev allowed1.50
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.081
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 33 27.7 +5.33
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 30 25.4 +4.61
3 IA Akranes 30 26.7 +3.30
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 27.6 +1.36
5 Fram Reykjavik 23 23.0 +0.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 22 25.4 -3.44
2 Valur Reykjavik 20 23.4 -3.35
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 25.2 -3.21
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24 25.9 -1.90
5 Grindavik 23 24.5 -1.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 5 Jun 21 – Jul 15 1 in 140
2 IA Akranes 5 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 49
3 KR Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 10 1 in 35
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Aug 31 1 in 19
5 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 29 – Jun 18 1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 50
2 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 48
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 29 – Jun 22 1 in 30
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 25 – Jul 8 1 in 24
5 KA Akureyri 3 Jun 25 – Jul 10 1 in 20

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 9 Jul 5 – Sep 1 1 in 66
2 Grindavik 6 Jun 21 – Jul 24 1 in 33
3 IA Akranes 6 Aug 10 – Sep 20 1 in 19
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 14 – Aug 10 1 in 8
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Aug 16 – Aug 31 1 in 6

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 14
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 14 1 in 11
3 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Aug 11 1 in 11
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Jun 25 – Jul 17 1 in 10
5 Fram Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 19 1 in 10

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KR Reykjavik17.21%14.08%12.28%11.50%9.97%8.76%8.10%6.96%6.52%4.62%
FH Hafnarfjordur9.81%10.72%10.96%10.00%10.47%10.02%10.45%9.98%9.28%8.31%
IA Akranes13.59%12.97%11.52%11.90%10.67%9.50%9.11%8.03%6.72%5.99%
Fylkir Reykjavik17.89%13.77%13.06%10.89%10.29%8.51%7.71%7.38%5.69%4.81%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.98%10.88%10.88%10.73%10.19%11.00%9.76%9.32%9.30%7.96%
Grindavik6.24%7.40%8.18%8.64%9.88%11.05%11.31%11.88%12.19%13.23%
Fram Reykjavik3.93%4.85%6.25%7.42%8.86%9.92%11.11%13.28%15.60%18.78%
KA Akureyri9.01%10.24%10.39%10.91%10.12%10.38%10.55%9.94%9.50%8.96%
Throttur Reykjavik8.20%9.39%9.69%10.09%10.44%10.65%10.29%11.01%10.71%9.53%
Valur Reykjavik4.14%5.70%6.79%7.92%9.11%10.21%11.61%12.22%14.49%17.81%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 89.5% 10.5%
KR Reykjavik 88.9% 11.1%
IA Akranes 87.3% 12.7%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 82.7% 17.3%
FH Hafnarfjordur 82.4% 17.6%
KA Akureyri 81.5% 18.5%
Throttur Reykjavik 79.8% 20.2%
Grindavik 74.6% 25.4%
Valur Reykjavik 67.7% 32.3%
Fram Reykjavik 65.6% 34.4%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2003-05-18 IA Akranes D 1-1 1197 1213 48.5% 17.1% 34.3% -0.5 1
2003-05-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1213 1197 34.3% 17.1% 48.5% +0.5 1
2003-05-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1210 1192 53.1% 16.8% 30.0% +7.8 3
2003-05-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1192 1210 30.0% 16.8% 53.1% -7.8 0
2003-05-18 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1207 1187 53.4% 16.8% 29.8% -7.4 0
2003-05-18 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1187 1207 29.8% 16.8% 53.4% +7.4 3
2003-05-18 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1209 1191 53.2% 16.8% 30.0% -7.0 0
2003-05-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1191 1209 30.0% 16.8% 53.2% +7.0 3
2003-05-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1188 1224 45.9% 17.2% 36.9% -6.5 0
2003-05-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1224 1188 36.9% 17.2% 45.9% +6.4 3
2003-05-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1214 1182 54.9% 16.7% 28.4% +7.4 4
2003-05-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1182 1214 28.4% 16.7% 54.9% -7.4 0
2003-05-24 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1198 1197 50.9% 17.0% 32.1% -0.7 4
2003-05-24 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1197 1198 32.1% 17.0% 50.9% +0.7 2
2003-05-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1194 1202 49.6% 17.1% 33.3% +12.0 6
2003-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1202 1194 33.3% 17.1% 49.6% -12.0 0
2003-05-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1184 1230 44.4% 17.3% 38.3% -0.2 1
2003-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1230 1184 38.3% 17.3% 44.4% +0.2 4
2003-05-26 Grindavik W 2-0 1218 1200 53.1% 16.8% 30.0% +9.0 6
2003-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1200 1218 30.0% 16.8% 53.1% -9.0 0
2003-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 4-0 1197 1206 49.5% 17.1% 33.4% +18.7 5
2003-05-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1206 1197 33.4% 17.1% 49.5% -18.7 6
2003-05-29 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1190 1227 45.7% 17.2% 37.0% +5.7 3
2003-05-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1227 1190 37.0% 17.2% 45.7% -5.7 6
2003-05-29 IA Akranes W 1-0 1230 1221 52.0% 16.9% 31.1% +4.9 7
2003-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1221 1230 31.1% 16.9% 52.0% -4.9 4
2003-05-29 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1174 1197 47.6% 17.2% 35.2% +8.9 3
2003-05-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1197 1174 35.2% 17.2% 47.6% -8.9 4
2003-05-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1191 1184 51.7% 17.0% 31.4% +4.4 3
2003-05-30 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1184 1191 31.4% 17.0% 51.7% -4.4 1
2003-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1221 1216 51.4% 17.0% 31.6% +13.6 9
2003-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1216 1221 31.6% 17.0% 51.4% -13.6 5
2003-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1188 1183 51.3% 17.0% 31.7% -7.5 6
2003-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1183 1188 31.7% 17.0% 51.3% +7.5 6
2003-06-03 IA Akranes D 0-0 1179 1216 45.7% 17.2% 37.0% -0.3 2
2003-06-03 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1216 1179 37.0% 17.2% 45.7% +0.3 5
2003-06-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1195 1196 50.6% 17.0% 32.4% -14.0 3
2003-06-03 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1196 1195 32.4% 17.0% 50.6% +14.0 6
2003-06-03 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1188 1235 44.3% 17.3% 38.5% +16.2 7
2003-06-03 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1235 1188 38.5% 17.3% 44.3% -16.1 7
2003-06-16 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1216 1204 52.3% 16.9% 30.8% -0.7 6
2003-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1204 1216 30.8% 16.9% 52.3% +0.7 8
2003-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1219 1180 55.8% 16.6% 27.6% +4.2 10
2003-06-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1180 1219 27.6% 16.6% 55.8% -4.2 6
2003-06-18 Grindavik W 2-1 1202 1181 53.5% 16.8% 29.7% +4.4 8
2003-06-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1181 1202 29.7% 16.8% 53.5% -4.4 3
2003-06-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1191 1235 44.7% 17.3% 38.1% +5.5 9
2003-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1235 1191 38.1% 17.3% 44.7% -5.5 9
2003-06-19 Fram Reykjavik W 5-0 1210 1179 54.8% 16.7% 28.5% +20.0 9
2003-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-5 1179 1210 28.5% 16.7% 54.8% -20.0 2
2003-06-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1177 1196 48.1% 17.2% 34.8% +5.1 6
2003-06-21 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1196 1177 34.8% 17.2% 48.1% -5.1 9
2003-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1229 1223 51.6% 17.0% 31.5% +4.7 12
2003-06-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1223 1229 31.5% 17.0% 51.6% -4.7 10
2003-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1230 1207 53.8% 16.8% 29.4% -12.8 9
2003-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1207 1230 29.4% 16.8% 53.8% +12.8 11
2003-06-22 IA Akranes L 1-3 1176 1216 45.2% 17.2% 37.5% -11.0 6
2003-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1216 1176 37.5% 17.2% 45.2% +11.0 9
2003-06-25 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1220 1159 58.4% 16.3% 25.3% -7.6 11
2003-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1159 1220 25.3% 16.3% 58.4% +7.6 5
2003-06-25 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1227 1234 49.8% 17.1% 33.2% -0.6 10
2003-06-25 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1234 1227 33.2% 17.1% 49.8% +0.6 13
2003-06-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1205 1165 56.0% 16.6% 27.5% -7.7 8
2003-06-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1165 1205 27.5% 16.6% 56.0% +7.7 9
2003-06-25 Grindavik L 1-2 1218 1182 55.5% 16.6% 27.9% -7.6 10
2003-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1182 1218 27.9% 16.6% 55.5% +7.6 9
2003-06-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1191 1217 47.2% 17.2% 35.6% +10.4 12
2003-06-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 1217 1191 35.6% 17.2% 47.2% -10.4 9
2003-07-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-4 1212 1202 52.1% 16.9% 31.0% -17.6 11
2003-07-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1202 1212 31.0% 16.9% 52.1% +17.6 15
2003-07-05 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1207 1211 50.2% 17.0% 32.7% -0.7 10
2003-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1211 1207 32.7% 17.0% 50.2% +0.7 11
2003-07-06 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1167 1172 50.0% 17.1% 33.0% +4.9 8
2003-07-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1172 1167 33.0% 17.1% 50.0% -4.9 9
2003-07-06 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1235 1197 55.6% 16.6% 27.8% +4.4 16
2003-07-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1197 1235 27.8% 16.6% 55.6% -4.4 8
2003-07-07 IA Akranes W 3-2 1190 1226 45.7% 17.2% 37.1% +5.1 12
2003-07-07 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1226 1190 37.1% 17.2% 45.7% -5.1 10
2003-07-08 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1211 1194 53.0% 16.9% 30.2% +4.5 14
2003-07-08 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1194 1211 30.2% 16.9% 53.0% -4.5 11
2003-07-09 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1219 1172 56.9% 16.5% 26.6% +4.0 18
2003-07-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1172 1219 26.6% 16.5% 56.9% -4.0 8
2003-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1221 1206 52.7% 16.9% 30.4% -21.1 10
2003-07-10 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1206 1221 30.4% 16.9% 52.7% +21.1 13
2003-07-10 Grindavik L 1-2 1193 1195 50.5% 17.0% 32.5% -7.0 8
2003-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1195 1193 32.5% 17.0% 50.5% +7.0 15
2003-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1168 1239 40.8% 17.3% 41.9% +6.3 12
2003-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1239 1168 41.9% 17.3% 40.8% -6.3 16
2003-07-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1216 1223 49.7% 17.1% 33.2% +4.9 17
2003-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1223 1216 33.2% 17.1% 49.7% -4.9 18
2003-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1186 1227 45.0% 17.2% 37.7% +9.5 11
2003-07-13 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1227 1186 37.7% 17.2% 45.0% -9.5 13
2003-07-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1168 1233 41.7% 17.3% 41.0% -5.9 8
2003-07-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1233 1168 41.0% 17.3% 41.7% +6.0 19
2003-07-15 Grindavik L 1-2 1174 1202 46.9% 17.2% 35.9% -6.6 12
2003-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1202 1174 35.9% 17.2% 46.9% +6.6 18
2003-07-17 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1162 1195 46.1% 17.2% 36.7% -6.1 8
2003-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1195 1162 36.7% 17.2% 46.1% +6.1 14
2003-07-17 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1200 1190 52.1% 16.9% 31.0% -0.8 11
2003-07-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1190 1200 31.0% 16.9% 52.1% +0.8 12
2003-07-24 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1191 1202 49.2% 17.1% 33.7% +4.7 15
2003-07-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1202 1191 33.7% 17.1% 49.2% -4.7 14
2003-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1208 1239 46.6% 17.2% 36.2% -0.3 19
2003-07-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1239 1208 36.2% 17.2% 46.6% +0.3 20
2003-07-24 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1218 1167 57.2% 16.4% 26.3% +4.0 16
2003-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1167 1218 26.3% 16.4% 57.2% -4.0 12
2003-07-24 IA Akranes L 1-3 1218 1199 53.3% 16.8% 29.9% -12.7 18
2003-07-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1199 1218 29.9% 16.8% 53.3% +12.7 14
2003-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1221 1156 59.0% 16.2% 24.8% +6.5 20
2003-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1156 1221 24.8% 16.2% 59.0% -6.5 8
2003-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1163 1195 46.4% 17.2% 36.4% -6.2 12
2003-07-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1195 1163 36.4% 17.2% 46.4% +6.2 18
2003-07-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1239 1222 53.0% 16.9% 30.2% +13.1 23
2003-07-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1222 1239 30.2% 16.9% 53.0% -13.1 16
2003-07-30 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1212 1227 48.6% 17.1% 34.2% -6.4 14
2003-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1227 1212 34.2% 17.1% 48.6% +6.4 23
2003-07-31 Grindavik W 2-0 1149 1208 42.5% 17.3% 40.2% +11.5 11
2003-07-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1208 1149 40.2% 17.3% 42.5% -11.5 19
2003-07-31 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1197 1206 49.5% 17.1% 33.4% +14.3 17
2003-07-31 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1206 1197 33.4% 17.1% 49.5% -14.3 18
2003-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1202 1252 43.8% 17.3% 39.0% -6.2 18
2003-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1252 1202 39.0% 17.3% 43.8% +6.2 26
2003-08-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1205 1161 56.5% 16.5% 27.0% +4.1 17
2003-08-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1161 1205 27.0% 16.5% 56.5% -4.1 11
2003-08-10 Grindavik W 1-0 1209 1196 52.4% 16.9% 30.7% +4.9 19
2003-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1196 1209 30.7% 16.9% 52.4% -4.8 19
2003-08-10 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1234 1211 53.7% 16.8% 29.5% +4.4 26
2003-08-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1211 1234 29.5% 16.8% 53.7% -4.4 17
2003-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1191 1157 55.2% 16.7% 28.1% -8.0 18
2003-08-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1157 1191 28.1% 16.7% 55.2% +8.0 15
2003-08-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1165 1238 40.5% 17.3% 42.2% +0.1 16
2003-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1238 1165 42.2% 17.3% 40.5% -0.1 27
2003-08-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1156 1214 42.8% 17.3% 39.9% +5.7 14
2003-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1214 1156 39.9% 17.3% 42.8% -5.7 19
2003-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1192 1195 50.2% 17.0% 32.7% -12.1 19
2003-08-17 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1195 1192 32.7% 17.0% 50.2% +12.1 21
2003-08-17 IA Akranes L 2-3 1207 1209 50.4% 17.0% 32.6% -6.6 17
2003-08-17 @ KA Akureyri W 3-2 1209 1207 32.6% 17.0% 50.4% +6.6 20
2003-08-18 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-5 1258 1183 60.1% 16.1% 23.8% -25.9 26
2003-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-1 1183 1258 23.8% 16.1% 60.1% +25.9 21
2003-08-23 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1216 1165 57.3% 16.4% 26.3% +8.0 23
2003-08-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1165 1216 26.3% 16.4% 57.3% -8.0 16
2003-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1200 1162 55.7% 16.6% 27.7% -8.1 17
2003-08-24 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1162 1200 27.7% 16.6% 55.7% +8.1 17
2003-08-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1238 1232 51.5% 17.0% 31.5% +17.8 30
2003-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1232 1238 31.5% 17.0% 51.5% -17.8 26
2003-08-24 Grindavik L 2-3 1209 1179 54.6% 16.7% 28.6% -7.1 21
2003-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1179 1209 28.6% 16.7% 54.6% +7.1 22
2003-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1207 1208 50.7% 17.0% 32.3% +4.8 24
2003-08-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1208 1207 32.3% 17.0% 50.7% -4.8 19
2003-08-30 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1203 1202 50.9% 17.0% 32.1% -0.6 20
2003-08-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1202 1203 32.1% 17.0% 50.9% +0.6 22
2003-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1170 1212 45.0% 17.2% 37.8% +5.8 20
2003-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1212 1170 37.8% 17.2% 45.0% -5.8 24
2003-08-31 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1157 1192 46.0% 17.2% 36.8% -0.2 17
2003-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1192 1157 36.8% 17.2% 46.0% +0.2 18
2003-09-01 IA Akranes L 0-1 1214 1224 49.5% 17.1% 33.5% -7.3 26
2003-09-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1224 1214 33.5% 17.1% 49.5% +7.3 26
2003-09-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1187 1256 41.0% 17.3% 41.7% -10.2 22
2003-09-01 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1256 1187 41.7% 17.3% 41.0% +10.2 33
2003-09-14 Grindavik W 2-1 1231 1176 57.8% 16.4% 25.9% +3.9 29
2003-09-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1176 1231 25.9% 16.4% 57.8% -3.9 22
2003-09-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1192 1207 48.7% 17.1% 34.2% +5.0 21
2003-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1207 1192 34.2% 17.1% 48.7% -5.0 26
2003-09-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1266 1203 58.8% 16.2% 25.0% -16.1 33
2003-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1203 1266 25.0% 16.2% 58.8% +16.1 23
2003-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1203 1206 50.3% 17.0% 32.7% -20.3 22
2003-09-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1206 1203 32.7% 17.0% 50.3% +20.3 27
2003-09-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1157 1176 48.2% 17.2% 34.7% +10.2 20
2003-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1176 1157 34.7% 17.2% 48.2% -10.2 20
2003-09-20 KR Reykjavik W 7-0 1227 1250 47.5% 17.2% 35.3% +33.2 30
2003-09-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-7 1250 1227 35.3% 17.2% 47.5% -33.2 33
2003-09-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1166 1183 48.5% 17.1% 34.4% +5.4 23
2003-09-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1183 1166 34.4% 17.1% 48.5% -5.4 22
2003-09-20 Valur Reykjavik W 6-2 1202 1167 55.3% 16.6% 28.1% +11.3 29
2003-09-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-6 1167 1202 28.1% 16.6% 55.3% -11.3 20
2003-09-20 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1172 1197 47.3% 17.2% 35.5% -0.4 23
2003-09-20 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1197 1172 35.5% 17.2% 47.3% +0.4 22
2003-09-20 IA Akranes D 1-1 1219 1235 48.5% 17.1% 34.4% -0.5 24
2003-09-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1235 1219 34.4% 17.1% 48.5% +0.5 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-08-18 23.81% Throttur Reykjavik 1183 5 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1258 1
2 2003-09-14 24.96% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1203 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1266 0
3 2003-06-25 25.28% Fram Reykjavik 1159 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1220 2
4 2003-06-25 27.46% Valur Reykjavik 1165 2 @ KA Akureyri 1205 1
5 2003-08-24 27.73% Fram Reykjavik 1162 1 @ KA Akureyri 1200 0
6 2003-06-25 27.90% Grindavik 1182 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1218 1
7 2003-08-11 28.15% Valur Reykjavik 1157 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1191 0
8 2003-08-24 28.65% Grindavik 1179 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1209 2
9 2003-06-22 29.40% FH Hafnarfjordur 1207 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1230 1
10 2003-05-18 29.76% Valur Reykjavik 1187 2 @ Grindavik 1207 1
11 2003-07-24 29.88% IA Akranes 1199 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1218 1
12 2003-05-18 29.99% KA Akureyri 1191 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1209 2
13 2003-07-10 30.44% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1206 3 @ IA Akranes 1221 0
14 2003-07-05 30.98% Throttur Reykjavik 1202 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1212 1
15 2003-06-02 31.74% Throttur Reykjavik 1183 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1188 0
16 2003-06-03 32.36% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1196 2 @ Grindavik 1195 0
17 2003-07-10 32.46% Grindavik 1195 2 @ KA Akureyri 1193 1
18 2003-08-17 32.59% IA Akranes 1209 3 @ KA Akureyri 1207 2
19 2003-09-14 32.71% FH Hafnarfjordur 1206 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1203 0
20 2003-08-17 32.74% FH Hafnarfjordur 1195 3 @ Grindavik 1192 1
21 2003-09-01 33.47% IA Akranes 1224 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1214 0
22 2003-07-30 34.24% KR Reykjavik 1227 3 @ IA Akranes 1212 2
23 2003-07-15 35.86% Grindavik 1202 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1174 1
24 2003-07-28 36.43% FH Hafnarfjordur 1195 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1163 2
25 2003-07-17 36.68% KA Akureyri 1195 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1162 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-20 33.21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 7 1227 47.55% KR Reykjavik 0 1250 35.28%
2 2003-08-18 25.91 Throttur Reykjavik 5 1183 23.81% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1258 60.13%
3 2003-07-10 21.13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1206 30.44% @ IA Akranes 0 1221 52.69%
4 2003-09-14 20.26 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1206 32.71% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1203 50.26%
5 2003-06-19 20.02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1210 54.79% Fram Reykjavik 0 1179 28.52%
6 2003-05-29 18.69 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1197 49.53% Valur Reykjavik 0 1206 33.39%
7 2003-08-24 17.77 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1238 51.52% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1232 31.52%
8 2003-07-05 17.64 Throttur Reykjavik 4 1202 30.98% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1212 52.10%
9 2003-06-03 16.15 @ KA Akureyri 3 1188 44.26% KR Reykjavik 0 1235 38.47%
10 2003-09-14 16.06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1203 24.96% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1266 58.80%
11 2003-07-31 14.31 @ KA Akureyri 3 1197 49.54% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1206 33.38%
12 2003-06-03 14.05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1196 32.36% @ Grindavik 0 1195 50.63%
13 2003-06-01 13.63 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1221 51.44% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1216 31.60%
14 2003-07-29 13.08 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1239 52.98% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1222 30.17%
15 2003-06-22 12.84 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1207 29.40% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1230 53.82%
16 2003-07-24 12.73 IA Akranes 3 1199 29.88% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1218 53.29%
17 2003-08-17 12.08 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1195 32.74% @ Grindavik 1 1192 50.22%
18 2003-05-24 12.04 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1194 49.62% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1202 33.31%
19 2003-07-31 11.54 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1149 42.54% Grindavik 0 1208 40.17%
20 2003-09-20 11.33 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 6 1202 55.28% Valur Reykjavik 2 1167 28.08%
21 2003-06-22 11.04 IA Akranes 3 1216 37.50% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1176 45.25%
22 2003-06-26 10.42 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1191 47.18% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1217 35.63%
23 2003-09-14 10.19 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1157 48.16% Fram Reykjavik 0 1176 34.70%
24 2003-09-01 10.17 KR Reykjavik 3 1256 41.66% @ Grindavik 1 1187 41.05%
25 2003-07-13 9.47 @ KA Akureyri 3 1186 45.03% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1227 37.72%