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2004 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

37 points · 1st Title

Relegated

KA Akureyri

15 pts

Vikingur Reykjavik · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

9.77 points above expected

37 points · 27.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

5.07 points below expected

17 points · 22.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 10 7 1 37 33 16 +17 27.23 +9.77
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 4 5 31 35 20 +15 27.80 +3.20
3 IA Akranes 18 8 7 3 31 28 19 +9 26.36 +4.64
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 26 20 +6 26.91 +2.09
5 Keflavik IF 18 7 3 8 24 31 33 -2 24.91 -0.91
6 KR Reykjavik 18 5 7 6 22 21 22 -1 25.00 -3.00
7 Grindavik 18 5 7 6 22 24 31 -7 22.67 -0.67
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 19 28 -9 22.07 -5.07
9 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 19 30 -11 20.19 -4.19
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 13 30 -17 19.79 -4.79

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 27.23 +9.77
2 IA Akranes 31 26.36 +4.64
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 27.80 +3.20
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 26.91 +2.09
5 Grindavik 22 22.67 -0.67

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 17 22.07 -5.07
2 KA Akureyri 15 19.79 -4.79
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 16 20.19 -4.19
4 KR Reykjavik 22 25.00 -3.00
5 Keflavik IF 24 24.91 -0.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 23 – Jul 8 1 in 52
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 24
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 31 – Sep 19 1 in 18
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 25 – Aug 9 1 in 11
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 14 – Jul 28 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 5 Jul 14 – Aug 15 1 in 94
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 13 – Sep 12 1 in 33
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 15 – Jun 28 1 in 26
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 16 – Jun 28 1 in 17
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 30 – Sep 12 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 May 28 – Sep 19 1 in 202
2 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 6 – Aug 15 1 in 15
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 May 16 – Jun 23 1 in 14
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 18 1 in 12
5 IA Akranes 6 Aug 8 – Sep 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 10 May 20 – Jul 18 1 in 38
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Jun 29 – Aug 8 1 in 25
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jul 25 – Sep 19 1 in 11
4 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 11 – Aug 21 1 in 10
5 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 15 – Jul 8 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FH Hafnarfjordur 1287 37 +57 13 8.5 +4.5
IA Akranes 1227 31 +35 11 6.8 +4.2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1260 31 +20 9 7.9 +1.1
Fylkir Reykjavik 1209 29 +9 9 7.7 +1.3
Keflavik IF 1175 24 +11 6 6.5 -0.5
Grindavik 1122 22 +9 10 6.3 +3.7
KR Reykjavik 1166 22 -27 4 7.4 -3.4
Fram Reykjavik 1109 17 -48 4 6.4 -2.4
Vikingur Reykjavik 1103 16 -55 1 5.8 -4.8
KA Akureyri 1056 15 -9 4 4.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR KI VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
3.48
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.30
0-2-0
2.90
2-0-0
2.66
1-1-0
3.75
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.82
0-2-0
3.26
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.94
—
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.52
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
3.14
—
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
3.33
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.23
—
0-2-0
2.27
0-1-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
2.35
2-0-0
2.45
0-1-1
2.78
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
3.06
0-2-0
2.57
0-2-0
3.12
—
2-0-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.38
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.73
1-1-0
3.08
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.99
—
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
3.49
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
1.71
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
2.30
—
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
2.73
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
3.05
1-1-0
2.52
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
3.33
—
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
2.89
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
2.74
—
2-0-0
3.04
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.08
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
2.37
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +9.2
Allowed 0.66 -9.9
Differential 0.94 +6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%8.33%5.00%1.67%2.22%0.56%25.56%
18.33%14.44%7.78%2.78%1.67%0.56%35.56%
25.00%7.78%5.56%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.78%
31.67%2.78%3.33%1.11%0.56%—9.44%
42.22%1.67%0.56%0.56%——5.00%
5+0.56%0.56%0.56%———1.67%
Total25.56%35.56%22.78%9.44%5.00%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.75
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+———————
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.89 +0.94
SD 1.25 0.68 1.30
CV 0.68 0.76 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.56 -0.50
SD 1.11 1.62 2.09
CV 1.05 1.04 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
216.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%11.11%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.11 +0.33
SD 0.86 1.08 1.37
CV 0.59 0.97 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
1—22.22%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%—————5.56%
3——16.67%5.56%——22.22%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.33 1.23 1.54
CV 1.00 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
211.11%16.67%16.67%———44.44%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.06 +0.50
SD 1.38 1.06 1.92
CV 0.89 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.11 +0.83
SD 1.39 1.02 1.82
CV 0.72 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
116.67%5.56%22.22%———44.44%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%50.00%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.67 -0.94
SD 0.83 1.33 1.66
CV 1.14 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%5.56%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.22 -0.06
SD 0.92 1.11 1.21
CV 0.79 0.91 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.83 -0.11
SD 1.60 1.38 2.08
CV 0.93 0.75 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.67 -0.61
SD 1.00 1.33 1.54
CV 0.95 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1287 37 27.23 +9.77 97.0% 13 18 24 27 31 36 39
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1260 31 27.80 +3.20 70.0% 16 18 23 27 33 38 41
IA Akranes 1227 31 26.36 +4.64 86.0% 14 17 24 26 29 34 38
Fylkir Reykjavik 1209 29 26.91 +2.09 72.0% 15 18 24 27 30 36 39
Keflavik IF 1175 24 24.91 -0.91 46.0% 12 14 21 25 28 34 40
KR Reykjavik 1166 22 25.00 -3.00 26.0% 13 16 22 25 28 32 40
Grindavik 1122 22 22.67 -0.67 50.0% 6 13 19 22 26 33 41
Fram Reykjavik 1109 17 22.07 -5.07 16.0% 8 14 19 22 25 30 39
Vikingur Reykjavik 1103 16 20.19 -4.19 20.0% 11 13 17 20 23 27 31
KA Akureyri 1056 15 19.79 -4.79 24.0% 9 11 16 20 23 28 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
37.78%28.89%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
136 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.8
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.22 * Some Luck: 4.22 to 6.33 * Lucky: 6.33 to 8.43 * Wild Swing: 8.43 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.84 * Close: 1.84 to 2.76 * Off: 2.76 to 3.68 * Way Off: 3.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.11 * A Surprise: 1.11 to 1.78 * Several Surprises: 1.78 to 2.44 * Many Surprises: 2.44 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.56 points
Some Luck
05.2713
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
02.305
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
16.00%
Fram Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 74.45
1.36
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.18
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.76
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.23
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1790.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur22.00%15.00%14.00%16.00%9.00%5.00%4.00%7.00%5.00%3.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar28.00%15.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%10.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%
IA Akranes12.00%15.00%16.00%16.00%13.00%10.00%9.00%2.00%5.00%2.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik13.00%14.00%16.00%17.00%10.00%8.00%11.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%
Keflavik IF5.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%9.00%12.00%6.00%6.00%
KR Reykjavik6.00%12.00%12.00%8.00%20.00%14.00%9.00%8.00%5.00%6.00%
Grindavik7.00%9.00%7.00%6.00%13.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%
Fram Reykjavik5.00%3.00%8.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%20.00%14.00%15.00%13.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.00%2.00%—7.00%4.00%14.00%13.00%21.00%14.00%24.00%
KA Akureyri1.00%3.00%6.00%4.00%3.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%25.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fylkir Reykjavik 94.00% 6.00%
IA Akranes 93.00% 7.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur 92.00% 8.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 91.00% 9.00%
KR Reykjavik 89.00% 11.00%
Keflavik IF 88.00% 12.00%
Fram Reykjavik 72.00% 28.00%
Grindavik 70.00% 30.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 62.00% 38.00%
KA Akureyri 49.00% 51.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-141.9 1176 1184 35.73% 30.63% 33.64%+0.05 -9.3 0
2004-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-041.9 1184 1176 33.64% 30.63% 35.73%-0.05 +9.3 3
2004-05-16 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-150.9 1181 1173 37.92% 30.56% 31.52%+0.17 -0.3 1
2004-05-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-150.9 1173 1181 31.52% 30.56% 37.92%-0.17 +0.3 1
2004-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-150.9 1157 1173 34.59% 30.64% 34.77%+0.00 +0.0 1
2004-05-16 @ Grindavik D 1-150.9 1173 1157 34.77% 30.64% 34.59%+0.00 -0.0 1
2004-05-16 Keflavik IF L 1-246.1 1160 1198 31.51% 30.56% 37.92%-0.17 -8.0 0
2004-05-16 @ KA Akureyri W 2-146.1 1198 1160 37.92% 30.56% 31.51%+0.17 +8.0 3
2004-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-035.8 1152 1160 35.62% 30.63% 33.74%+0.05 +24.5 3
2004-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-335.8 1160 1152 33.74% 30.63% 35.62%-0.05 -24.5 0
2004-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.9 1173 1176 36.51% 30.62% 32.87%+0.09 -0.2 2
2004-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-150.9 1176 1173 32.87% 30.62% 36.51%-0.09 +0.2 4
2004-05-20 Grindavik D 0-046.5 1180 1157 40.12% 30.42% 29.46%+0.28 -0.6 2
2004-05-20 @ IA Akranes D 0-046.5 1157 1180 29.46% 30.42% 40.12%-0.28 +0.6 2
2004-05-20 KR Reykjavik W 3-141.4 1207 1166 42.45% 30.18% 27.37%+0.41 +12.5 6
2004-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-341.4 1166 1207 27.37% 30.18% 42.45%-0.41 -12.5 0
2004-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-141.5 1136 1152 34.55% 30.64% 34.81%-0.01 -9.1 0
2004-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.5 1152 1136 34.81% 30.64% 34.55%+0.01 +9.1 3
2004-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-041.7 1174 1193 34.10% 30.64% 35.27%-0.03 +9.2 4
2004-05-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-141.7 1193 1174 35.27% 30.64% 34.10%+0.03 -9.2 3
2004-05-25 IA Akranes L 0-238.6 1176 1180 36.38% 30.62% 33.00%+0.09 -17.8 4
2004-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-038.6 1180 1176 33.00% 30.62% 36.38%-0.09 +17.8 5
2004-05-27 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-237.6 1158 1183 33.32% 30.63% 36.05%-0.07 -16.7 2
2004-05-27 @ Grindavik W 2-037.6 1183 1158 36.05% 30.63% 33.32%+0.07 +16.7 7
2004-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-141.7 1161 1173 35.19% 30.64% 34.17%+0.03 -9.2 3
2004-05-27 @ KA Akureyri W 1-041.7 1173 1161 34.17% 30.64% 35.19%-0.03 +9.2 5
2004-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-145.2 1154 1127 40.68% 30.37% 28.95%+0.31 +7.5 3
2004-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-245.2 1127 1154 28.95% 30.37% 40.68%-0.31 -7.5 0
2004-05-28 Keflavik IF D 1-151.0 1184 1219 31.94% 30.58% 37.47%-0.14 +0.3 4
2004-05-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-151.0 1219 1184 37.47% 30.58% 31.94%+0.14 -0.3 7
2004-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-151.0 1119 1184 28.08% 30.28% 41.64%-0.36 +0.7 1
2004-06-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1184 1119 41.64% 30.28% 28.08%+0.36 -0.7 5
2004-06-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-252.1 1141 1158 34.42% 30.64% 34.94%-0.01 +8.2 5
2004-06-01 @ Grindavik L 2-352.1 1158 1141 34.94% 30.64% 34.42%+0.01 -8.2 4
2004-06-01 KA Akureyri W 2-144.5 1198 1152 43.17% 30.09% 26.73%+0.45 +7.1 8
2004-06-01 @ IA Akranes L 1-244.5 1152 1198 26.73% 30.09% 43.17%-0.45 -7.1 3
2004-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 2-256.7 1182 1161 39.83% 30.44% 29.73%+0.27 -0.4 6
2004-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-256.7 1161 1182 29.73% 30.44% 39.83%-0.27 +0.4 4
2004-06-02 Keflavik IF W 2-038.3 1200 1219 34.15% 30.64% 35.21%-0.03 +17.4 10
2004-06-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-238.3 1219 1200 35.21% 30.64% 34.15%+0.03 -17.4 7
2004-06-07 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1150 1217 27.87% 30.25% 41.88%-0.38 +0.7 5
2004-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1217 1150 41.88% 30.25% 27.87%+0.38 -0.7 11
2004-06-07 Grindavik D 1-150.9 1145 1149 36.27% 30.62% 33.11%+0.08 -0.1 4
2004-06-07 @ KA Akureyri D 1-150.9 1149 1145 33.11% 30.62% 36.27%-0.08 +0.1 6
2004-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.3 1184 1182 37.11% 30.60% 32.29%+0.12 +8.2 8
2004-06-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-246.3 1182 1184 32.29% 30.60% 37.11%-0.12 -8.2 6
2004-06-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-037.6 1201 1120 47.88% 29.27% 22.85%+0.71 +6.6 10
2004-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-137.6 1120 1201 22.85% 29.27% 47.88%-0.71 -6.6 1
2004-06-09 IA Akranes W 1-042.7 1162 1205 30.90% 30.53% 38.57%-0.20 +9.8 7
2004-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-142.7 1205 1162 38.57% 30.53% 30.90%+0.20 -9.8 8
2004-06-15 Keflavik IF W 4-036.9 1174 1208 32.06% 30.59% 37.35%-0.14 +34.3 9
2004-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-436.9 1208 1174 37.35% 30.59% 32.06%+0.14 -34.3 10
2004-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-142.2 1216 1113 50.56% 28.63% 20.81%+0.87 +5.8 14
2004-06-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-242.2 1113 1216 20.81% 28.63% 50.56%-0.87 -5.8 1
2004-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-256.7 1195 1192 37.32% 30.59% 32.09%+0.14 -0.2 9
2004-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 2-256.7 1192 1195 32.09% 30.59% 37.32%-0.14 +0.2 9
2004-06-16 KA Akureyri L 0-142.4 1151 1145 37.75% 30.57% 31.68%+0.16 -9.7 5
2004-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-042.4 1145 1151 31.68% 30.57% 37.75%-0.16 +9.7 7
2004-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-046.4 1150 1172 33.72% 30.63% 35.64%-0.05 +0.1 7
2004-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-046.4 1172 1150 35.64% 30.63% 33.72%+0.05 -0.1 8
2004-06-21 Fram Reykjavik W 3-034.2 1172 1141 41.13% 30.33% 28.54%+0.34 +21.7 11
2004-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-334.2 1141 1172 28.54% 30.33% 41.13%-0.34 -21.7 5
2004-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-235.9 1155 1222 27.78% 30.24% 41.98%-0.38 -14.6 7
2004-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 2-035.9 1222 1155 41.98% 30.24% 27.78%+0.38 +14.6 17
2004-06-23 Grindavik W 4-138.8 1192 1150 42.76% 30.15% 27.10%+0.42 +17.6 12
2004-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-438.8 1150 1192 27.10% 30.15% 42.76%-0.42 -17.6 7
2004-06-23 IA Akranes L 0-237.8 1174 1195 33.89% 30.64% 35.47%-0.04 -16.9 10
2004-06-23 @ Keflavik IF W 2-037.8 1195 1174 35.47% 30.64% 33.89%+0.04 +16.9 12
2004-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-255.3 1108 1208 24.04% 29.58% 46.38%-0.62 +10.1 4
2004-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-355.3 1208 1108 46.38% 29.58% 24.04%+0.62 -10.1 9
2004-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-253.6 1140 1193 29.53% 30.43% 40.04%-0.28 +9.0 10
2004-06-27 @ KA Akureyri L 2-353.6 1193 1140 40.04% 30.43% 29.53%+0.28 -9.0 11
2004-06-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.9 1120 1210 25.19% 29.82% 44.99%-0.55 -6.8 5
2004-06-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-143.9 1210 1120 44.99% 29.82% 25.19%+0.55 +6.8 15
2004-06-28 Keflavik IF W 3-252.4 1132 1157 33.36% 30.63% 36.01%-0.07 +8.4 10
2004-06-28 @ Grindavik L 2-352.4 1157 1132 36.01% 30.63% 33.36%+0.07 -8.4 10
2004-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-249.3 1237 1198 42.25% 30.21% 27.54%+0.40 -9.9 17
2004-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-149.3 1198 1237 27.54% 30.21% 42.25%-0.40 +9.9 12
2004-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-241.9 1212 1118 49.44% 28.92% 21.65%+0.80 -22.4 12
2004-06-29 @ IA Akranes W 2-041.9 1118 1212 21.65% 28.92% 49.44%-0.80 +22.4 7
2004-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.1 1216 1184 41.37% 30.30% 28.33%+0.35 -0.6 16
2004-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-151.1 1184 1216 28.33% 30.30% 41.37%-0.35 +0.6 12
2004-07-07 IA Akranes D 2-256.8 1227 1189 42.12% 30.22% 27.65%+0.39 -0.5 18
2004-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-256.8 1189 1227 27.65% 30.22% 42.12%-0.39 +0.5 13
2004-07-08 Fram Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1148 1113 41.85% 30.25% 27.90%+0.37 -0.7 11
2004-07-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-151.0 1113 1148 27.90% 30.25% 41.85%-0.37 +0.7 6
2004-07-08 Grindavik W 1-040.8 1140 1140 36.84% 30.61% 32.55%+0.11 +8.7 10
2004-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-140.8 1140 1140 32.55% 30.61% 36.84%-0.11 -8.7 10
2004-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1185 1226 31.09% 30.54% 38.37%-0.19 +0.3 13
2004-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1226 1185 38.37% 30.54% 31.09%+0.19 -0.3 19
2004-07-10 IA Akranes L 0-143.0 1208 1190 39.47% 30.47% 30.06%+0.25 -10.0 12
2004-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-043.0 1190 1208 30.06% 30.47% 39.47%-0.25 +10.0 16
2004-07-11 KA Akureyri D 2-256.9 1216 1149 45.98% 29.65% 24.37%+0.60 -0.8 17
2004-07-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-256.9 1149 1216 24.37% 29.65% 45.98%-0.60 +0.8 11
2004-07-13 Fram Reykjavik D 0-046.5 1149 1113 41.81% 30.26% 27.93%+0.37 -0.8 11
2004-07-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-046.5 1113 1149 27.93% 30.26% 41.81%-0.37 +0.8 7
2004-07-14 Grindavik W 2-034.6 1198 1132 45.93% 29.66% 24.41%+0.60 +13.2 15
2004-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-234.6 1132 1198 24.41% 29.66% 45.93%-0.60 -13.2 10
2004-07-14 KA Akureyri W 1-040.9 1148 1150 36.60% 30.61% 32.79%+0.10 +8.8 14
2004-07-14 @ Keflavik IF L 0-140.9 1150 1148 32.79% 30.61% 36.60%-0.10 -8.8 11
2004-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-243.6 1114 1211 24.43% 29.66% 45.91%-0.60 -6.6 7
2004-07-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-143.6 1211 1114 45.91% 29.66% 24.43%+0.60 +6.6 18
2004-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-151.0 1185 1156 40.91% 30.35% 28.74%+0.32 -0.6 14
2004-07-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.0 1156 1185 28.74% 30.35% 40.91%-0.32 +0.6 15
2004-07-18 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-238.4 1141 1148 35.89% 30.63% 33.48%+0.06 -17.6 11
2004-07-18 @ KA Akureyri W 2-038.4 1148 1141 33.48% 30.63% 35.89%-0.06 +17.6 14
2004-07-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-041.5 1215 1226 35.31% 30.64% 34.05%+0.03 +9.0 20
2004-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-141.5 1226 1215 34.05% 30.64% 35.31%-0.03 -9.0 19
2004-07-19 IA Akranes D 1-151.1 1119 1200 26.18% 30.00% 43.82%-0.48 +0.9 11
2004-07-19 @ Grindavik D 1-151.1 1200 1119 43.82% 30.00% 26.18%+0.48 -0.9 17
2004-07-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-139.4 1157 1224 27.87% 30.25% 41.88%-0.38 -7.8 15
2004-07-25 @ Keflavik IF W 1-039.4 1224 1157 41.88% 30.25% 27.87%+0.38 +7.8 23
2004-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-439.8 1199 1108 49.10% 29.00% 21.91%+0.78 -42.3 17
2004-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 4-039.8 1108 1199 21.91% 29.00% 49.10%-0.78 +42.3 10
2004-07-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-246.9 1166 1185 34.17% 30.64% 35.19%-0.03 -8.5 14
2004-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-146.9 1185 1166 35.19% 30.64% 34.17%+0.03 +8.5 17
2004-07-26 Grindavik D 1-151.4 1217 1119 49.88% 28.80% 21.31%+0.83 -1.5 20
2004-07-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.4 1119 1217 21.31% 28.80% 49.88%-0.83 +1.5 12
2004-07-28 KA Akureyri W 4-031.6 1218 1123 49.50% 28.90% 21.60%+0.81 +22.6 21
2004-07-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-431.6 1123 1218 21.60% 28.90% 49.50%-0.81 -22.6 11
2004-08-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-249.7 1149 1215 27.95% 30.26% 41.79%-0.37 +15.2 18
2004-08-08 @ Keflavik IF L 2-449.7 1215 1149 41.79% 30.26% 27.95%+0.37 -15.2 20
2004-08-08 IA Akranes L 0-535.0 1101 1156 29.24% 30.40% 40.36%-0.29 -35.5 11
2004-08-08 @ KA Akureyri W 5-035.0 1156 1101 40.36% 30.40% 29.24%+0.29 +35.5 20
2004-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-046.6 1193 1240 30.31% 30.49% 39.21%-0.23 +0.5 18
2004-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-046.6 1240 1193 39.21% 30.49% 30.31%+0.23 -0.5 22
2004-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-046.8 1232 1157 46.99% 29.46% 23.55%+0.66 -1.3 24
2004-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-046.8 1157 1232 23.55% 29.46% 46.99%-0.66 +1.3 15
2004-08-09 Grindavik W 2-145.1 1150 1121 40.95% 30.35% 28.70%+0.33 +7.5 13
2004-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-245.1 1121 1150 28.70% 30.35% 40.95%-0.33 -7.5 12
2004-08-13 Keflavik IF L 2-352.5 1158 1165 36.02% 30.63% 33.35%+0.07 -8.4 15
2004-08-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-252.5 1165 1158 33.35% 30.63% 36.02%-0.07 +8.4 21
2004-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.0 1240 1230 38.26% 30.55% 31.19%+0.18 -16.0 22
2004-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-145.0 1230 1240 31.19% 30.55% 38.26%-0.18 +16.0 27
2004-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 1-039.1 1200 1157 42.82% 30.14% 27.05%+0.43 +7.6 23
2004-08-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-139.1 1157 1200 27.05% 30.14% 42.82%-0.43 -7.6 13
2004-08-15 KA Akureyri W 2-035.3 1113 1065 43.53% 30.04% 26.42%+0.47 +14.1 15
2004-08-15 @ Grindavik L 0-235.3 1065 1113 26.42% 30.04% 43.53%-0.47 -14.1 11
2004-08-15 KR Reykjavik D 0-046.5 1192 1194 36.66% 30.61% 32.72%+0.10 -0.2 21
2004-08-15 @ IA Akranes D 0-046.5 1194 1192 32.72% 30.61% 36.66%-0.10 +0.2 19
2004-08-21 Fram Reykjavik D 0-046.6 1051 1150 24.26% 29.63% 46.12%-0.61 +1.2 12
2004-08-21 @ KA Akureyri D 0-046.6 1150 1051 46.12% 29.63% 24.26%+0.61 -1.2 14
2004-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-342.0 1150 1208 28.98% 30.37% 40.64%-0.31 -13.1 15
2004-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-142.0 1208 1150 40.64% 30.37% 28.98%+0.31 +13.1 26
2004-08-22 IA Akranes D 2-257.0 1246 1192 44.37% 29.92% 25.71%+0.51 -0.7 28
2004-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-257.0 1192 1246 25.71% 29.92% 44.37%-0.51 +0.7 22
2004-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-542.5 1173 1224 29.82% 30.45% 39.73%-0.26 -16.4 21
2004-08-22 @ Keflavik IF W 5-242.5 1224 1173 39.73% 30.45% 29.82%+0.26 +16.4 25
2004-08-23 Grindavik L 2-355.1 1194 1127 45.94% 29.66% 24.40%+0.60 -10.0 19
2004-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-255.1 1127 1194 24.40% 29.66% 45.94%-0.60 +10.0 18
2004-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-031.4 1240 1137 50.61% 28.62% 20.78%+0.87 +16.7 28
2004-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-331.4 1137 1240 20.78% 28.62% 50.61%-0.87 -16.7 15
2004-08-30 KA Akureyri L 0-147.2 1221 1052 58.14% 26.08% 15.78%+1.35 -13.5 26
2004-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-047.2 1052 1221 15.78% 26.08% 58.14%-1.35 +13.5 15
2004-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-432.3 1137 1246 23.28% 29.39% 47.33%-0.68 -24.1 18
2004-08-31 @ Grindavik W 4-032.3 1246 1137 47.33% 29.39% 23.28%+0.68 +24.1 31
2004-08-31 Keflavik IF W 2-144.8 1193 1157 41.90% 30.25% 27.86%+0.38 +7.3 25
2004-08-31 @ IA Akranes L 1-244.8 1157 1193 27.86% 30.25% 41.90%-0.38 -7.3 21
2004-08-31 KR Reykjavik W 1-042.4 1149 1184 31.92% 30.58% 37.50%-0.14 +9.6 17
2004-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-142.4 1184 1149 37.50% 30.58% 31.92%+0.14 -9.6 19
2004-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 4-136.3 1270 1158 51.58% 28.35% 20.07%+0.93 +13.7 34
2004-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-436.3 1158 1270 20.07% 28.35% 51.58%-0.93 -13.7 17
2004-09-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-141.2 1257 1207 43.76% 30.01% 26.23%+0.48 +12.1 31
2004-09-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-341.2 1207 1257 26.23% 30.01% 43.76%-0.48 -12.1 26
2004-09-12 Grindavik L 3-456.8 1149 1113 41.88% 30.25% 27.87%+0.38 -9.1 21
2004-09-12 @ Keflavik IF W 4-356.8 1113 1149 27.87% 30.25% 41.88%-0.38 +9.1 21
2004-09-12 IA Akranes L 1-438.5 1120 1200 26.36% 30.03% 43.61%-0.47 -17.2 15
2004-09-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-138.5 1200 1120 43.61% 30.03% 26.36%+0.47 +17.2 28
2004-09-12 KA Akureyri W 2-142.0 1174 1066 51.19% 28.46% 20.35%+0.91 +5.7 22
2004-09-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-242.0 1066 1174 20.35% 28.46% 51.19%-0.91 -5.7 15
2004-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-239.2 1060 1283 14.32% 24.99% 60.69%-1.52 -4.0 15
2004-09-19 @ KA Akureyri W 2-139.2 1283 1060 60.69% 24.99% 14.32%+1.52 +4.0 37
2004-09-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.8 1217 1269 29.68% 30.44% 39.88%-0.27 +9.5 31
2004-09-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-248.8 1269 1217 39.88% 30.44% 29.68%+0.27 -9.5 31
2004-09-19 Keflavik IF L 1-640.3 1145 1140 37.52% 30.58% 31.90%+0.15 -35.2 17
2004-09-19 @ Fram Reykjavik W 6-140.3 1140 1145 31.90% 30.58% 37.52%-0.15 +35.2 24
2004-09-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-142.5 1195 1180 39.06% 30.50% 30.44%+0.23 +13.6 29
2004-09-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-342.5 1180 1195 30.44% 30.50% 39.06%-0.23 -13.6 22
2004-09-19 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-360.5 1122 1103 39.62% 30.46% 29.92%+0.26 -0.3 22
2004-09-19 @ Grindavik D 3-360.5 1103 1122 29.92% 30.46% 39.62%-0.26 +0.3 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-08-30 15.78% KA Akureyri 1052 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1221 0
2 2004-06-29 21.65% Vikingur Reykjavik 1118 2 @ IA Akranes 1212 0
3 2004-07-25 21.91% Fram Reykjavik 1108 4 @ IA Akranes 1199 0
4 2004-06-23 24.04% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1108 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1208 2
5 2004-08-23 24.40% Grindavik 1127 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1194 2
6 2004-06-29 27.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1198 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1237 1
7 2004-09-12 27.87% Grindavik 1113 4 @ Keflavik IF 1149 3
8 2004-08-08 27.95% @ Keflavik IF 1149 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1215 2
9 2004-06-27 29.53% @ KA Akureyri 1140 3 KR Reykjavik 1193 2
10 2004-09-19 29.68% @ IA Akranes 1217 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1269 1
11 2004-07-10 30.06% IA Akranes 1190 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1208 0
12 2004-06-09 30.90% @ KR Reykjavik 1162 1 IA Akranes 1205 0
13 2004-08-15 31.19% FH Hafnarfjordur 1230 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1240 1
14 2004-06-16 31.68% KA Akureyri 1145 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1151 0
15 2004-09-19 31.90% Keflavik IF 1140 6 @ Fram Reykjavik 1145 1
16 2004-08-31 31.92% @ Fram Reykjavik 1149 1 KR Reykjavik 1184 0
17 2004-06-15 32.06% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1174 4 Keflavik IF 1208 0
18 2004-05-25 33.00% IA Akranes 1180 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1176 0
19 2004-08-13 33.35% Keflavik IF 1165 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1158 2
20 2004-06-28 33.36% @ Grindavik 1132 3 Keflavik IF 1157 2
21 2004-07-18 33.48% Vikingur Reykjavik 1148 2 @ KA Akureyri 1141 0
22 2004-05-15 33.64% FH Hafnarfjordur 1184 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1176 0
23 2004-05-22 34.10% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1174 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1193 0
24 2004-06-02 34.15% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1200 2 Keflavik IF 1219 0
25 2004-05-27 34.17% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1173 1 @ KA Akureyri 1161 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-07-25 42.30 Fram Reykjavik 4 1108 21.91% @ IA Akranes 0 1199 49.10% 29.00%
2 2004-08-08 35.55 IA Akranes 5 1156 40.36% @ KA Akureyri 0 1101 29.24% 30.40%
3 2004-09-19 35.18 Keflavik IF 6 1140 31.90% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1145 37.52% 30.58%
4 2004-06-15 34.35 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1174 32.06% Keflavik IF 0 1208 37.35% 30.59%
5 2004-05-16 24.49 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1152 35.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1160 33.74% 30.63%
6 2004-08-31 24.10 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1246 47.33% @ Grindavik 0 1137 23.28% 29.39%
7 2004-07-28 22.62 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1218 49.50% KA Akureyri 0 1123 21.60% 28.90%
8 2004-06-29 22.42 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1118 21.65% @ IA Akranes 0 1212 49.44% 28.92%
9 2004-06-21 21.69 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1172 41.13% Fram Reykjavik 0 1141 28.54% 30.33%
10 2004-05-25 17.76 IA Akranes 2 1180 33.00% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1176 36.38% 30.62%
11 2004-07-18 17.60 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1148 33.48% @ KA Akureyri 0 1141 35.89% 30.63%
12 2004-06-23 17.58 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1192 42.76% Grindavik 1 1150 27.10% 30.15%
13 2004-06-02 17.36 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1200 34.15% Keflavik IF 0 1219 35.21% 30.64%
14 2004-09-12 17.21 IA Akranes 4 1200 43.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1120 26.36% 30.03%
15 2004-06-23 16.91 IA Akranes 2 1195 35.47% @ Keflavik IF 0 1174 33.89% 30.64%
16 2004-08-29 16.74 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1240 50.61% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1137 20.78% 28.62%
17 2004-05-27 16.71 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1183 36.05% @ Grindavik 0 1158 33.32% 30.63%
18 2004-08-22 16.36 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1224 39.73% @ Keflavik IF 2 1173 29.82% 30.45%
19 2004-08-15 15.95 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1230 31.19% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1240 38.26% 30.55%
20 2004-08-08 15.24 @ Keflavik IF 4 1149 27.95% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1215 41.79% 30.26%
21 2004-06-23 14.63 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1222 41.98% @ KA Akureyri 0 1155 27.78% 30.24%
22 2004-08-15 14.07 @ Grindavik 2 1113 43.53% KA Akureyri 0 1065 26.42% 30.04%
23 2004-09-12 13.68 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1270 51.58% Fram Reykjavik 1 1158 20.07% 28.35%
24 2004-09-19 13.57 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1195 39.06% KR Reykjavik 1 1180 30.44% 30.50%
25 2004-08-30 13.53 KA Akureyri 1 1052 15.78% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1221 58.14% 26.08%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-09-19 60.5 @ Grindavik 3 1122 39.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1103 29.92% 30.46%
2 2004-08-22 57.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1246 44.37% IA Akranes 2 1192 25.71% 29.92%
3 2004-07-11 56.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1216 45.98% KA Akureyri 2 1149 24.37% 29.65%
4 2004-07-07 56.8 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1227 42.12% IA Akranes 2 1189 27.65% 30.22%
5 2004-09-12 56.8 Grindavik 4 1113 27.87% @ Keflavik IF 3 1149 41.88% 30.25%
6 2004-06-01 56.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1182 39.83% KR Reykjavik 2 1161 29.73% 30.44%
7 2004-06-16 56.7 @ IA Akranes 2 1195 37.32% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1192 32.09% 30.59%
8 2004-06-23 55.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1108 24.04% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1208 46.38% 29.58%
9 2004-08-23 55.1 Grindavik 3 1127 24.40% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1194 45.94% 29.66%
10 2004-06-27 53.6 @ KA Akureyri 3 1140 29.53% KR Reykjavik 2 1193 40.04% 30.43%
11 2004-08-13 52.5 Keflavik IF 3 1165 33.35% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1158 36.02% 30.63%
12 2004-06-28 52.4 @ Grindavik 3 1132 33.36% Keflavik IF 2 1157 36.01% 30.63%
13 2004-06-01 52.1 @ Grindavik 3 1141 34.42% Fram Reykjavik 2 1158 34.94% 30.64%
14 2004-07-26 51.4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1217 49.88% Grindavik 1 1119 21.31% 28.80%
15 2004-07-06 51.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1216 41.37% KR Reykjavik 1 1184 28.33% 30.30%
16 2004-07-19 51.1 @ Grindavik 1 1119 26.18% IA Akranes 1 1200 43.82% 30.00%
17 2004-05-28 51.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1184 31.94% Keflavik IF 1 1219 37.47% 30.58%
18 2004-06-01 51.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1119 28.08% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1184 41.64% 30.28%
19 2004-06-07 51.0 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1150 27.87% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1217 41.88% 30.25%
20 2004-07-08 51.0 @ Keflavik IF 1 1148 41.85% Fram Reykjavik 1 1113 27.90% 30.25%
21 2004-07-10 51.0 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1185 31.09% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1226 38.37% 30.54%
22 2004-07-18 51.0 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1185 40.91% Keflavik IF 1 1156 28.74% 30.35%
23 2004-05-16 50.9 @ IA Akranes 1 1181 37.92% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1173 31.52% 30.56%
24 2004-05-16 50.9 @ Grindavik 1 1157 34.59% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1173 34.77% 30.64%
25 2004-05-20 50.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1173 36.51% Fram Reykjavik 1 1176 32.87% 30.62%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-08-29 31.4 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1240 50.61% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1137 20.78% 28.62%
2 2004-07-28 31.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1218 49.50% KA Akureyri 0 1123 21.60% 28.90%
3 2004-08-31 32.3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1246 47.33% @ Grindavik 0 1137 23.28% 29.39%
4 2004-06-21 34.2 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1172 41.13% Fram Reykjavik 0 1141 28.54% 30.33%
5 2004-07-14 34.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1198 45.93% Grindavik 0 1132 24.41% 29.66%
6 2004-08-08 35.0 IA Akranes 5 1156 40.36% @ KA Akureyri 0 1101 29.24% 30.40%
7 2004-08-15 35.3 @ Grindavik 2 1113 43.53% KA Akureyri 0 1065 26.42% 30.04%
8 2004-05-16 35.8 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1152 35.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1160 33.74% 30.63%
9 2004-06-23 35.9 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1222 41.98% @ KA Akureyri 0 1155 27.78% 30.24%
10 2004-09-12 36.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1270 51.58% Fram Reykjavik 1 1158 20.07% 28.35%
11 2004-06-15 36.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1174 32.06% Keflavik IF 0 1208 37.35% 30.59%
12 2004-05-27 37.6 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1183 36.05% @ Grindavik 0 1158 33.32% 30.63%
13 2004-06-07 37.6 @ Keflavik IF 1 1201 47.88% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1120 22.85% 29.27%
14 2004-06-23 37.8 IA Akranes 2 1195 35.47% @ Keflavik IF 0 1174 33.89% 30.64%
15 2004-06-02 38.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1200 34.15% Keflavik IF 0 1219 35.21% 30.64%
16 2004-07-18 38.4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1148 33.48% @ KA Akureyri 0 1141 35.89% 30.63%
17 2004-09-12 38.5 IA Akranes 4 1200 43.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1120 26.36% 30.03%
18 2004-05-25 38.6 IA Akranes 2 1180 33.00% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1176 36.38% 30.62%
19 2004-06-23 38.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1192 42.76% Grindavik 1 1150 27.10% 30.15%
20 2004-08-15 39.1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1200 42.82% Fram Reykjavik 0 1157 27.05% 30.14%
21 2004-09-19 39.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1283 60.69% @ KA Akureyri 1 1060 14.32% 24.99%
22 2004-07-25 39.4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1224 41.88% @ Keflavik IF 0 1157 27.87% 30.25%
23 2004-07-25 39.8 Fram Reykjavik 4 1108 21.91% @ IA Akranes 0 1199 49.10% 29.00%
24 2004-09-19 40.3 Keflavik IF 6 1140 31.90% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1145 37.52% 30.58%
25 2004-07-08 40.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1140 36.84% Grindavik 0 1140 32.55% 30.61%