2004 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

9.45 points above expected

37 points · 27.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

5.66 points below expected

15 points · 20.66 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 10 7 1 37 33 16 +17 27.6 +9.45
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 4 5 31 35 20 +15 25.6 +5.43
3 IA Akranes 18 8 7 3 31 28 19 +9 25.2 +5.75
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 26 20 +6 25.8 +3.24
5 Keflavik IF 18 7 3 8 24 31 33 -2 24.2 -0.20
6 KR Reykjavik 18 5 7 6 22 21 22 -1 23.7 -1.73
7 Grindavik 18 5 7 6 22 24 31 -7 21.0 +1.00
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 19 28 -9 21.5 -4.54
9 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 4 4 10 16 19 30 -11 21.6 -5.63
10 KA Akureyri 18 4 3 11 15 13 30 -17 20.7 -5.66

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1280 37 27.55 +9.45 97.3% 9 19 24 27 31 36 46
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1251 31 25.57 +5.43 87.0% 7 17 22 25 29 34 44
IA Akranes 1228 31 25.25 +5.75 88.7% 8 17 22 25 29 34 47
Fylkir Reykjavik 1210 29 25.76 +3.24 77.0% 7 18 22 26 29 34 43
Keflavik IF 1188 24 24.20 -0.20 53.4% 6 16 21 24 28 33 45
KR Reykjavik 1177 22 23.73 -1.73 41.3% 6 15 20 24 27 32 44
Grindavik 1135 22 21.00 +1.00 62.5% 5 13 18 21 24 29 42
Vikingur Reykjavik 1134 16 21.63 -5.63 15.5% 6 14 18 21 25 30 42
Fram Reykjavik 1130 17 21.54 -4.54 21.7% 6 14 18 21 25 30 40
KA Akureyri 1095 15 20.66 -5.66 15.2% 6 13 17 21 24 29 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KA KR KI VR
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.30
0-2-0
2.85
2-0-0
2.71
1-1-0
3.61
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
2.80
0-2-0
3.13
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.38
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.02
1-1-0
3.08
0-2-0
2.65
0-0-2
2.58
1-0-1
3.32
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
3.05
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.21
0-2-0
2.19
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.31
2-0-0
2.30
0-1-1
2.56
IA Akranes
0-2-0
2.40
1-0-1
3.02
0-2-0
2.59
0-2-0
3.08
2-0-0
2.44
2-0-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
2.78
1-0-1
3.16
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
2.99
2-0-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
2.80
2-0-0
2.95
0-2-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
3.21
KA Akureyri
0-1-1
1.81
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.44
1-0-1
2.59
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.87
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.42
0-2-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
2.69
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.44
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-2
2.59
2-0-0
2.79
1-1-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.89
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.22
1-1-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.13
1-0-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.54
0-0-2
2.38

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%8.33%5.00%1.67%2.22%0.56%25.56%
18.33%14.44%7.78%2.78%1.67%0.56%35.56%
25.00%7.78%5.56%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.78%
31.67%2.78%3.33%1.11%0.56%9.44%
42.22%1.67%0.56%0.56%5.00%
5+0.56%0.56%0.56%1.67%
Total25.56%35.56%22.78%9.44%5.00%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.38
Mean allowed1.38
StdDev scored1.22
StdDev allowed1.22
Mean total goals/game2.77
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.024
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%
116.67%16.67%33.33%
216.67%16.67%33.33%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%11.11%16.67%
5+
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.83
Mean allowed0.89
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed0.68
Mean total goals/game2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.186
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%44.44%
25.56%5.56%11.11%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed1.56
StdDev scored1.11
StdDev allowed1.62
Mean total goals/game2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.149
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%44.44%
216.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
311.11%11.11%
4
5+
Total27.78%50.00%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored0.86
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.007
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
122.22%5.56%5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%
316.67%5.56%22.22%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.33
StdDev allowed1.23
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.277
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%11.11%16.67%
211.11%16.67%16.67%44.44%
3
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.06
StdDev scored1.38
StdDev allowed1.06
Mean total goals/game2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.224
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
411.11%11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%11.11%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.94
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.39
StdDev allowed1.02
Mean total goals/game3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.119
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%44.44%
116.67%5.56%22.22%44.44%
25.56%5.56%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total22.22%16.67%50.00%5.56%5.56%100%

KA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.72
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored0.83
StdDev allowed1.33
Mean total goals/game2.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.143
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%27.78%
15.56%16.67%11.11%33.33%
216.67%5.56%11.11%33.33%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total27.78%44.44%5.56%22.22%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.17
Mean allowed1.22
StdDev scored0.92
StdDev allowed1.11
Mean total goals/game2.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.305
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.72
Mean allowed1.83
StdDev scored1.60
StdDev allowed1.38
Mean total goals/game3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.031
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%33.33%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%27.78%5.56%100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.00
StdDev allowed1.33
Mean total goals/game2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.148
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 27.6 +9.45
2 IA Akranes 31 25.2 +5.75
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 31 25.6 +5.43
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 25.8 +3.24
5 Grindavik 22 21.0 +1.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 15 20.7 -5.66
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 16 21.6 -5.63
3 Fram Reykjavik 17 21.5 -4.54
4 KR Reykjavik 22 23.7 -1.73
5 Keflavik IF 24 24.2 -0.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 23 – Jul 8 1 in 52
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 May 22 – Jun 2 1 in 36
3 IA Akranes 3 Aug 31 – Sep 19 1 in 25
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 14 – Jul 28 1 in 13
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jul 25 – Aug 9 1 in 13

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 5 Jul 14 – Aug 15 1 in 168
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 13 – Sep 12 1 in 58
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 15 – Jun 28 1 in 41
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 16 – Jun 28 1 in 22
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 Aug 30 – Sep 12 1 in 13

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 May 28 – Sep 19 1 in 99
2 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 6 – Aug 15 1 in 12
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 May 16 – Jun 23 1 in 11
4 IA Akranes 6 Aug 8 – Sep 19 1 in 8
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 18 1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 10 May 20 – Jul 18 1 in 23
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Jun 29 – Aug 8 1 in 14
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jul 25 – Sep 19 1 in 9
4 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 11 – Aug 21 1 in 8
5 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 15 – Jul 8 1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur27.74%17.79%13.85%11.07%8.66%6.99%5.44%4.12%2.87%1.47%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar15.62%14.74%13.44%12.51%10.38%9.18%8.30%6.46%5.70%3.67%
IA Akranes13.32%14.08%12.98%11.99%10.98%10.32%9.13%7.45%5.80%3.95%
Fylkir Reykjavik14.90%14.97%13.30%12.27%11.32%9.92%8.31%6.32%5.56%3.13%
Keflavik IF9.09%10.50%11.12%11.35%11.67%11.33%10.47%10.20%8.11%6.16%
KR Reykjavik7.73%9.19%10.84%11.37%11.23%11.47%10.82%10.09%9.41%7.85%
Grindavik2.71%4.44%6.16%7.12%8.57%10.09%12.24%14.38%15.40%18.89%
Fram Reykjavik3.14%5.23%6.48%8.38%9.61%10.65%11.76%13.19%15.21%16.35%
Vikingur Reykjavik3.40%5.36%6.94%7.76%9.19%10.65%11.68%13.60%14.99%16.43%
KA Akureyri2.35%3.70%4.89%6.18%8.39%9.40%11.85%14.19%16.95%22.10%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 95.7% 4.3%
Fylkir Reykjavik 91.3% 8.7%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 90.6% 9.4%
IA Akranes 90.2% 9.8%
Keflavik IF 85.7% 14.3%
KR Reykjavik 82.7% 17.3%
Vikingur Reykjavik 68.6% 31.4%
Fram Reykjavik 68.4% 31.6%
Grindavik 65.7% 34.3%
KA Akureyri 61.0% 39.1%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2004-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1182 1209 29.1% 38.4% 32.5% -6.1 0
2004-05-15 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1209 1182 32.5% 38.4% 29.1% +6.1 3
2004-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1158 1181 29.6% 38.5% 31.9% +17.8 3
2004-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1181 1158 31.9% 38.5% 29.6% -17.8 0
2004-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1158 1185 29.2% 38.5% 32.4% +0.1 1
2004-05-16 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1185 1158 32.4% 38.5% 29.2% -0.1 1
2004-05-16 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1194 1182 34.9% 38.0% 27.1% -0.3 1
2004-05-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1182 1194 27.1% 38.0% 34.9% +0.3 1
2004-05-16 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1173 1207 28.2% 38.3% 33.4% -5.7 0
2004-05-16 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1207 1173 33.4% 38.3% 28.2% +5.7 3
2004-05-20 Grindavik D 0-0 1194 1158 38.5% 36.8% 24.7% -0.5 2
2004-05-20 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1158 1194 24.7% 36.8% 38.5% +0.5 2
2004-05-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1185 1176 34.4% 38.1% 27.5% -0.2 2
2004-05-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1176 1185 27.5% 38.1% 34.4% +0.2 4
2004-05-20 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1213 1175 38.8% 36.6% 24.5% +8.8 6
2004-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1175 1213 24.5% 36.6% 38.8% -8.8 0
2004-05-21 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1163 1168 32.3% 38.5% 29.2% -6.6 0
2004-05-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1168 1163 29.2% 38.5% 32.3% +6.6 3
2004-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1182 1215 28.3% 38.3% 33.4% +6.7 4
2004-05-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1215 1182 33.4% 38.3% 28.3% -6.7 3
2004-05-25 IA Akranes L 0-2 1176 1193 30.4% 38.5% 31.0% -11.9 4
2004-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1193 1176 31.0% 38.5% 30.4% +11.9 5
2004-05-27 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1159 1188 28.8% 38.4% 32.8% -11.5 2
2004-05-27 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1188 1159 32.8% 38.4% 28.8% +11.5 7
2004-05-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1174 1185 31.5% 38.5% 30.0% -6.5 3
2004-05-27 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1185 1174 30.0% 38.5% 31.5% +6.5 5
2004-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1167 1157 34.5% 38.1% 27.4% +5.6 3
2004-05-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1157 1167 27.4% 38.1% 34.5% -5.6 0
2004-05-28 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1209 1222 31.1% 38.5% 30.4% -0.0 4
2004-05-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1222 1209 30.4% 38.5% 31.1% +0.0 7
2004-06-01 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1147 1164 30.6% 38.5% 30.9% +5.7 5
2004-06-01 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1164 1147 30.9% 38.5% 30.6% -5.7 4
2004-06-01 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1205 1168 38.8% 36.7% 24.5% +5.1 8
2004-06-01 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1168 1205 24.5% 36.7% 38.8% -5.1 3
2004-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1191 1172 35.9% 37.7% 26.4% -0.2 6
2004-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1172 1191 26.4% 37.7% 35.9% +0.2 4
2004-06-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1151 1208 25.6% 37.3% 37.1% +0.4 1
2004-06-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1208 1151 37.1% 37.3% 25.6% -0.4 5
2004-06-02 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1200 1222 29.8% 38.5% 31.6% +12.2 10
2004-06-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1222 1200 31.6% 38.5% 29.8% -12.2 7
2004-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1208 1191 35.6% 37.8% 26.6% +5.4 8
2004-06-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1191 1208 26.6% 37.8% 35.6% -5.4 6
2004-06-07 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1158 1212 25.9% 37.5% 36.5% +0.4 5
2004-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1212 1158 36.5% 37.5% 25.9% -0.4 11
2004-06-07 Grindavik D 1-1 1163 1153 34.4% 38.1% 27.4% -0.2 4
2004-06-07 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1153 1163 27.4% 38.1% 34.4% +0.2 6
2004-06-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1210 1151 42.2% 35.0% 22.8% +5.0 10
2004-06-07 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1151 1210 22.8% 35.0% 42.2% -5.0 1
2004-06-09 IA Akranes W 1-0 1172 1210 27.8% 38.2% 34.1% +6.8 7
2004-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1210 1172 34.1% 38.2% 27.8% -6.8 8
2004-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1212 1146 43.4% 34.3% 22.3% +4.6 14
2004-06-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1146 1212 22.3% 34.3% 43.4% -4.6 1
2004-06-15 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1185 1215 28.8% 38.4% 32.7% +23.7 9
2004-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1215 1185 32.7% 38.4% 28.8% -23.7 10
2004-06-16 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1158 1162 32.4% 38.5% 29.1% -6.6 5
2004-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1162 1158 29.1% 38.5% 32.4% +6.6 7
2004-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1153 1179 29.3% 38.5% 32.2% +0.1 7
2004-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1179 1153 32.2% 38.5% 29.3% -0.1 8
2004-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1203 1214 31.5% 38.5% 30.0% -0.0 9
2004-06-16 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1214 1203 30.0% 38.5% 31.5% +0.0 9
2004-06-21 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1179 1152 37.2% 37.3% 25.5% +15.3 11
2004-06-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1152 1179 25.5% 37.3% 37.2% -15.3 5
2004-06-23 Grindavik W 4-1 1214 1153 42.5% 34.8% 22.7% +11.6 12
2004-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1153 1214 22.7% 34.8% 42.5% -11.6 7
2004-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1169 1216 26.6% 37.8% 35.5% -10.9 7
2004-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1216 1169 35.5% 37.8% 26.6% +10.9 17
2004-06-23 IA Akranes L 0-2 1191 1203 31.1% 38.5% 30.3% -12.1 10
2004-06-23 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1203 1191 30.3% 38.5% 31.1% +12.1 12
2004-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1142 1209 24.6% 36.7% 38.6% +6.5 4
2004-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1209 1142 38.6% 36.7% 24.6% -6.5 9
2004-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1158 1194 28.0% 38.2% 33.8% +6.0 10
2004-06-27 @ KA Akureyri L 2-3 1194 1158 33.8% 38.2% 28.0% -6.0 11
2004-06-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1137 1225 22.9% 35.0% 42.1% -4.8 5
2004-06-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1225 1137 42.1% 35.0% 22.9% +4.8 15
2004-06-28 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1142 1179 27.9% 38.2% 33.9% +6.0 10
2004-06-28 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1179 1142 33.9% 38.2% 27.9% -6.0 10
2004-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1227 1203 36.8% 37.4% 25.8% -6.7 17
2004-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1203 1227 25.8% 37.4% 36.8% +6.7 12
2004-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1216 1148 43.7% 34.1% 22.2% -14.8 12
2004-06-29 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1148 1216 22.2% 34.1% 43.7% +14.8 7
2004-07-06 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1230 1188 39.5% 36.4% 24.2% -0.5 16
2004-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1188 1230 24.2% 36.4% 39.5% +0.5 12
2004-07-07 IA Akranes D 2-2 1221 1201 36.0% 37.7% 26.3% -0.2 18
2004-07-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1201 1221 26.3% 37.7% 36.0% +0.2 13
2004-07-08 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1173 1132 39.4% 36.4% 24.2% -0.5 11
2004-07-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1132 1173 24.2% 36.4% 39.4% +0.5 6
2004-07-08 Grindavik W 1-0 1163 1148 35.3% 37.9% 26.8% +5.8 10
2004-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1148 1163 26.8% 37.9% 35.3% -5.8 10
2004-07-10 IA Akranes L 0-1 1209 1201 34.2% 38.2% 27.6% -6.8 12
2004-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1201 1209 27.6% 38.2% 34.2% +6.8 16
2004-07-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1189 1220 28.5% 38.4% 33.1% +0.2 13
2004-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1220 1189 33.1% 38.4% 28.5% -0.2 19
2004-07-11 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1229 1164 43.4% 34.3% 22.3% -0.5 17
2004-07-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1164 1229 22.3% 34.3% 43.4% +0.6 11
2004-07-13 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1169 1132 38.7% 36.7% 24.6% -0.5 11
2004-07-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1132 1169 24.6% 36.7% 38.7% +0.6 7
2004-07-14 Grindavik W 2-0 1202 1142 42.6% 34.8% 22.7% +9.4 15
2004-07-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1142 1202 22.7% 34.8% 42.6% -9.4 10
2004-07-14 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1172 1165 34.1% 38.2% 27.7% +6.0 14
2004-07-14 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1165 1172 27.7% 38.2% 34.1% -6.0 11
2004-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1133 1212 23.6% 35.9% 40.5% -4.9 7
2004-07-18 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1212 1133 40.5% 35.9% 23.6% +4.9 18
2004-07-18 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1159 1168 31.6% 38.5% 29.9% -12.2 11
2004-07-18 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1168 1159 29.9% 38.5% 31.6% +12.2 14
2004-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1189 1178 34.6% 38.1% 27.3% -0.2 14
2004-07-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1178 1189 27.3% 38.1% 34.6% +0.2 15
2004-07-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1229 1220 34.3% 38.1% 27.6% +5.9 20
2004-07-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1220 1229 27.6% 38.1% 34.3% -5.9 19
2004-07-19 IA Akranes D 1-1 1133 1208 23.9% 36.2% 39.9% +0.6 11
2004-07-19 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1208 1133 39.9% 36.2% 23.9% -0.6 17
2004-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 1207 1128 45.7% 32.8% 21.4% -28.9 17
2004-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 4-0 1128 1207 21.4% 32.8% 45.7% +28.8 10
2004-07-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1178 1235 25.7% 37.4% 36.9% -5.6 15
2004-07-25 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1235 1178 36.9% 37.4% 25.7% +5.6 23
2004-07-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1181 1189 31.8% 38.5% 29.7% -6.1 14
2004-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1189 1181 29.7% 38.5% 31.8% +6.1 17
2004-07-26 Grindavik D 1-1 1214 1133 46.1% 32.6% 21.3% -0.9 20
2004-07-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1133 1214 21.3% 32.6% 46.1% +0.9 12
2004-07-28 KA Akureyri W 4-0 1217 1147 44.2% 33.8% 22.0% +17.3 21
2004-07-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1147 1217 22.0% 33.8% 44.2% -17.3 11
2004-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1240 1174 43.5% 34.2% 22.3% -0.8 24
2004-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1174 1240 22.3% 34.2% 43.5% +0.8 15
2004-08-08 IA Akranes L 0-5 1129 1178 26.5% 37.8% 35.8% -25.4 11
2004-08-08 @ KA Akureyri W 5-0 1178 1129 35.8% 37.8% 26.5% +25.4 20
2004-08-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-2 1173 1213 27.4% 38.1% 34.5% +10.0 18
2004-08-08 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 1213 1173 34.5% 38.1% 27.4% -10.0 20
2004-08-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1195 1234 27.6% 38.2% 34.2% +0.2 18
2004-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1234 1195 34.2% 38.2% 27.6% -0.2 22
2004-08-09 Grindavik W 2-1 1157 1134 36.5% 37.5% 26.0% +5.4 13
2004-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1134 1157 26.0% 37.5% 36.5% -5.3 12
2004-08-13 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1175 1183 31.9% 38.5% 29.6% -5.8 15
2004-08-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1183 1175 29.6% 38.5% 31.9% +5.8 21
2004-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1204 1162 39.4% 36.4% 24.2% +5.3 23
2004-08-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1162 1204 24.2% 36.4% 39.4% -5.3 13
2004-08-15 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1129 1104 36.8% 37.4% 25.8% +10.6 15
2004-08-15 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1104 1129 25.8% 37.4% 36.8% -10.6 11
2004-08-15 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1204 1195 34.3% 38.1% 27.6% -0.2 21
2004-08-15 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1195 1204 27.6% 38.1% 34.3% +0.2 19
2004-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1234 1240 32.1% 38.5% 29.4% -10.7 22
2004-08-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1240 1234 29.4% 38.5% 32.1% +10.7 27
2004-08-21 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1093 1157 25.0% 37.0% 38.0% +0.5 12
2004-08-21 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1157 1093 38.0% 37.0% 25.0% -0.5 14
2004-08-22 IA Akranes D 2-2 1250 1203 40.3% 36.0% 23.7% -0.4 28
2004-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1203 1250 23.7% 36.0% 40.3% +0.4 22
2004-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-5 1189 1223 28.2% 38.3% 33.5% -12.0 21
2004-08-22 @ Keflavik IF W 5-2 1223 1189 33.5% 38.3% 28.2% +12.0 25
2004-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1169 1209 27.6% 38.1% 34.3% -9.7 15
2004-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1209 1169 34.3% 38.1% 27.6% +9.7 26
2004-08-23 Grindavik L 2-3 1195 1139 41.8% 35.2% 23.0% -6.8 19
2004-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1139 1195 23.0% 35.2% 41.8% +6.9 18
2004-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1235 1160 45.1% 33.2% 21.7% +13.0 28
2004-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 1160 1235 21.7% 33.2% 45.1% -13.0 15
2004-08-30 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1219 1094 53.6% 27.1% 19.3% -8.8 26
2004-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1094 1219 19.3% 27.1% 53.6% +8.8 15
2004-08-31 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1156 1189 28.5% 38.4% 33.2% +6.7 17
2004-08-31 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1189 1156 33.2% 38.4% 28.5% -6.7 19
2004-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1146 1250 21.9% 33.5% 44.6% -17.1 18
2004-08-31 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1250 1146 44.6% 33.5% 21.9% +17.1 31
2004-08-31 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1204 1177 37.2% 37.3% 25.5% +5.3 25
2004-08-31 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1177 1204 25.5% 37.3% 37.2% -5.3 21
2004-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1267 1163 50.0% 29.8% 20.2% +9.8 34
2004-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1163 1267 20.2% 29.8% 50.0% -9.8 17
2004-09-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1248 1210 39.0% 36.6% 24.4% +8.8 31
2004-09-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1210 1248 24.4% 36.6% 39.0% -8.8 26
2004-09-12 Grindavik L 3-4 1171 1129 39.6% 36.3% 24.1% -6.5 21
2004-09-12 @ Keflavik IF W 4-3 1129 1171 24.1% 36.3% 39.6% +6.5 21
2004-09-12 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1182 1103 45.7% 32.8% 21.4% +4.4 22
2004-09-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1103 1182 21.4% 32.8% 45.7% -4.4 15
2004-09-12 IA Akranes L 1-4 1147 1209 25.1% 37.0% 37.9% -12.7 15
2004-09-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1209 1147 37.9% 37.0% 25.1% +12.7 28
2004-09-19 Keflavik IF L 1-6 1153 1165 31.3% 38.5% 30.2% -23.5 17
2004-09-19 @ Fram Reykjavik W 6-1 1165 1153 30.2% 38.5% 31.3% +23.5 24
2004-09-19 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1201 1186 35.2% 37.9% 26.9% +9.5 29
2004-09-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1186 1201 26.9% 37.9% 35.2% -9.5 22
2004-09-19 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1136 1134 33.2% 38.4% 28.4% -0.1 22
2004-09-19 @ Grindavik D 3-3 1134 1136 28.4% 38.4% 33.2% +0.1 16
2004-09-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1222 1257 28.1% 38.3% 33.6% +6.3 31
2004-09-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1257 1222 33.6% 38.3% 28.1% -6.3 31
2004-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1098 1277 18.4% 23.9% 57.6% -3.4 15
2004-09-19 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1277 1098 57.6% 23.9% 18.4% +3.4 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-08-30 19.30% KA Akureyri 1094 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1219 0
2 2004-07-25 21.45% Fram Reykjavik 1128 4 @ IA Akranes 1207 0
3 2004-06-29 22.20% Vikingur Reykjavik 1148 2 @ IA Akranes 1216 0
4 2004-08-23 23.00% Grindavik 1139 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1195 2
5 2004-09-12 24.11% Grindavik 1129 4 @ Keflavik IF 1171 3
6 2004-06-23 24.63% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1142 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1209 2
7 2004-06-29 25.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1203 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1227 1
8 2004-08-08 27.42% @ Keflavik IF 1173 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1213 2
9 2004-07-10 27.60% IA Akranes 1201 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1209 0
10 2004-06-09 27.75% @ KR Reykjavik 1172 1 IA Akranes 1210 0
11 2004-06-28 27.87% @ Grindavik 1142 3 Keflavik IF 1179 2
12 2004-06-27 27.96% @ KA Akureyri 1158 3 KR Reykjavik 1194 2
13 2004-09-19 28.11% @ IA Akranes 1222 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1257 1
14 2004-05-22 28.31% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1182 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1215 0
15 2004-08-31 28.46% @ Fram Reykjavik 1156 1 KR Reykjavik 1189 0
16 2004-06-15 28.85% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1185 4 Keflavik IF 1215 0
17 2004-06-16 29.14% KA Akureyri 1162 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1158 0
18 2004-05-21 29.21% KA Akureyri 1168 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1163 0
19 2004-08-15 29.37% FH Hafnarfjordur 1240 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1234 1
20 2004-08-13 29.61% Keflavik IF 1183 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1175 2
21 2004-05-16 29.62% @ Fram Reykjavik 1158 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1181 0
22 2004-07-25 29.70% KR Reykjavik 1189 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1181 1
23 2004-06-02 29.84% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1200 2 Keflavik IF 1222 0
24 2004-07-18 29.91% Vikingur Reykjavik 1168 2 @ KA Akureyri 1159 0
25 2004-05-27 30.01% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1185 1 @ KA Akureyri 1174 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-07-25 28.85 Fram Reykjavik 4 1128 21.45% @ IA Akranes 0 1207 45.74%
2 2004-08-08 25.37 IA Akranes 5 1178 35.77% @ KA Akureyri 0 1129 26.46%
3 2004-06-15 23.69 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1185 28.85% Keflavik IF 0 1215 32.74%
4 2004-09-19 23.51 Keflavik IF 6 1165 30.19% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1153 31.28%
5 2004-05-16 17.84 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1158 29.62% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1181 31.88%
6 2004-07-28 17.28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1217 44.21% KA Akureyri 0 1147 22.01%
7 2004-08-31 17.13 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1250 44.61% @ Grindavik 0 1146 21.85%
8 2004-06-21 15.31 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1179 37.17% Fram Reykjavik 0 1152 25.52%
9 2004-06-29 14.81 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1148 22.20% @ IA Akranes 0 1216 43.70%
10 2004-08-29 12.99 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1235 45.07% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1160 21.69%
11 2004-09-12 12.73 IA Akranes 4 1209 37.85% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1147 25.10%
12 2004-06-02 12.23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1200 29.84% Keflavik IF 0 1222 31.64%
13 2004-07-18 12.21 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1168 29.91% @ KA Akureyri 0 1159 31.57%
14 2004-06-23 12.11 IA Akranes 2 1203 30.31% @ Keflavik IF 0 1191 31.15%
15 2004-08-22 12.04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1223 33.54% @ Keflavik IF 2 1189 28.17%
16 2004-05-25 11.94 IA Akranes 2 1193 31.02% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1176 30.44%
17 2004-06-23 11.56 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1214 42.53% Grindavik 1 1153 22.69%
18 2004-05-27 11.52 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1188 32.81% @ Grindavik 0 1159 28.79%
19 2004-06-23 10.91 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1216 35.52% @ KA Akureyri 0 1169 26.64%
20 2004-08-15 10.70 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1240 29.37% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1234 32.15%
21 2004-08-15 10.62 @ Grindavik 2 1129 36.81% KA Akureyri 0 1104 25.76%
22 2004-08-08 9.98 @ Keflavik IF 4 1173 27.42% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1213 34.47%
23 2004-09-12 9.84 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1267 49.98% Fram Reykjavik 1 1163 20.18%
24 2004-08-22 9.69 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1209 34.27% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1169 27.58%
25 2004-09-19 9.51 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1201 35.22% KR Reykjavik 1 1186 26.86%