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2005 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

48 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 2004.0

Relegated

Throttur Reykjavik

16 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

11.84 points above expected

48 points · 36.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

7.62 points below expected

17 points · 24.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 16 0 2 48 53 11 +42 36.16 +11.84
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 10 2 6 32 29 16 +13 29.39 +2.61
3 IA Akranes 18 10 2 6 32 24 20 +4 26.41 +5.59
4 Keflavik IF 18 7 6 5 27 28 31 -3 24.29 +2.71
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 2 8 26 28 28 0 27.75 -1.75
6 KR Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 22 24 -2 23.66 +1.34
7 Grindavik 18 5 3 10 18 23 41 -18 21.79 -3.79
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 2 11 17 18 30 -12 24.62 -7.62
9 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 2 11 17 19 32 -13 21.63 -4.63
10 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 21 32 -11 21.61 -5.61

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 48 36.16 +11.84
2 IA Akranes 32 26.41 +5.59
3 Keflavik IF 27 24.29 +2.71
4 Valur Reykjavik 32 29.39 +2.61
5 KR Reykjavik 25 23.66 +1.34

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 24.62 -7.62
2 Throttur Reykjavik 16 21.61 -5.61
3 Fram Reykjavik 17 21.63 -4.63
4 Grindavik 18 21.79 -3.79
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 26 27.75 -1.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 2,392
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 60
3 IA Akranes 4 Aug 21 – Sep 17 1 in 42
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 35
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 14 – Sep 11 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 17 1 in 57
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 55
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 41
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 28 – Sep 11 1 in 23
5 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 16 – May 27 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 104
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 15
3 Grindavik 4 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 14
4 IA Akranes 5 Jun 29 – Aug 7 1 in 14
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 31 – Jul 17 1 in 61
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 15 – Sep 17 1 in 35
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 12
5 Throttur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 11 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FH Hafnarfjordur 1509 48 +8 9 10.5 -1.5
IA Akranes 1372 32 +24 12 7.3 +4.7
Valur Reykjavik 1367 32 -32 2 8.1 -6.1
Keflavik IF 1319 27 -1 7 7.2 -0.2
Fylkir Reykjavik 1340 26 -9 9 7.3 +1.7
KR Reykjavik 1324 25 +30 12 7.1 +4.9
Grindavik 1254 18 -13 6 6.3 -0.3
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1297 17 +13 7 6.8 +0.2
Fram Reykjavik 1249 17 -22 3 5.6 -2.6
Throttur Reykjavik 1279 16 -13 6 5.8 +0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KR KI TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
3.91
2-0-0
4.07
1-0-1
3.99
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.55
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.40
 —
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
3.17
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.58
2-0-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.24
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.82
1-1-0
3.26
 —
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.14
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-2
2.77
Grindavik
0-0-2
1.65
2-0-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.11
 —
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.44
1-1-0
2.36
0-1-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.33
IA Akranes
1-0-1
1.73
0-1-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
3.43
 —
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.83
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.67
 —
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
2.26
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.83
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.28
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
2.88
 —
0-0-2
2.96
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.38
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.06
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
2.58
0-1-1
3.35
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
2.76
 —
0-2-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.38
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.55
0-0-2
3.02
1-0-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.65
0-2-0
2.59
 —
1-0-1
2.13
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-1
3.48
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
2.88
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +9.0
Allowed 0.76 -9.8
Differential 0.94 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%8.33%6.67%5.00%1.11%0.56%26.11%
18.33%4.44%10.00%5.00%—2.78%30.56%
26.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%—0.56%23.89%
35.00%5.00%3.33%1.11%——14.44%
41.11%—————1.11%
5+0.56%2.78%0.56%———3.89%
Total26.11%30.56%23.89%14.44%1.11%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 2.08
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
222.22%—————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+5.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 0.61 +2.33
SD 1.95 0.78 2.03
CV 0.66 1.27 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 1.00 1.48 2.02
CV 0.95 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 0.98 1.29 1.78
CV 0.63 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%—11.11%50.00%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%5.56%27.78%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.28 -1.00
SD 0.89 2.11 2.54
CV 0.70 0.93 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%—16.67%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.11 +0.22
SD 1.08 1.02 1.56
CV 0.81 0.92 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.67 -0.67
SD 1.33 1.19 2.09
CV 1.33 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%—16.67%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.17 1.14 1.84
CV 0.95 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.72 -0.17
SD 1.10 1.18 1.54
CV 0.70 0.68 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.78 -0.61
SD 1.25 1.31 1.79
CV 1.07 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.89 +0.72
SD 1.42 0.76 1.81
CV 0.88 0.85 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1509 48 36.16 +11.84 100.0% 20 26 32 37 40 45 48
IA Akranes 1372 32 26.41 +5.59 89.0% 12 16 22 27 31 35 39
Valur Reykjavik 1367 32 29.39 +2.61 78.0% 16 23 27 29 32 37 41
Fylkir Reykjavik 1340 26 27.75 -1.75 49.0% 13 18 24 27 32 37 43
KR Reykjavik 1324 25 23.66 +1.34 65.0% 12 14 20 23 27 34 36
Keflavik IF 1319 27 24.29 +2.71 73.0% 12 15 21 24 28 35 40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1297 17 24.62 -7.62 10.0% 9 15 21 25 28 33 41
Throttur Reykjavik 1279 16 21.61 -5.61 22.0% 11 13 17 21 26 31 34
Grindavik 1254 18 21.79 -3.79 30.0% 8 12 17 22 26 31 37
Fram Reykjavik 1249 17 21.63 -4.63 24.0% 8 13 18 21 25 31 37

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
45.56%13.33%41.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
92 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
64%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.89/gm
Runaway
00.281.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.51 * Some Luck: 4.51 to 6.76 * Lucky: 6.76 to 9.01 * Wild Swing: 9.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.66 * Close: 1.66 to 2.49 * Off: 2.49 to 3.33 * Way Off: 3.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.18 * A Surprise: 1.18 to 1.89 * Several Surprises: 1.89 to 2.6 * Many Surprises: 2.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.62 points
Some Luck
05.6314
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.085
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
10.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 75.58
1.66
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.19
Very Even
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.97
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%35%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.059
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur64.00%17.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—
Valur Reykjavik9.00%19.00%23.00%23.00%10.00%7.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
IA Akranes6.00%13.00%16.00%13.00%10.00%15.00%4.00%12.00%7.00%4.00%
Keflavik IF3.00%10.00%5.00%9.00%13.00%10.00%17.00%12.00%13.00%8.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik10.00%17.00%13.00%13.00%11.00%19.00%5.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%
KR Reykjavik3.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%12.00%13.00%13.00%12.00%15.00%8.00%
Grindavik—4.00%7.00%6.00%13.00%5.00%17.00%13.00%13.00%22.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar3.00%5.00%9.00%7.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%
Fram Reykjavik1.00%3.00%4.00%10.00%4.00%8.00%13.00%18.00%20.00%19.00%
Throttur Reykjavik1.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%8.00%7.00%8.00%14.00%16.00%27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.00% 1.00%
Valur Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
IA Akranes 89.00% 11.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 79.00% 21.00%
Keflavik IF 79.00% 21.00%
KR Reykjavik 77.00% 23.00%
Grindavik 65.00% 35.00%
Fram Reykjavik 61.00% 39.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 57.00% 43.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-05-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-335.2 1325 1383 36.96% 14.10% 48.94%-0.46 -15.7 0
2005-05-16 @ Keflavik IF W 3-035.2 1383 1325 48.94% 14.10% 36.96%+0.46 +15.7 3
2005-05-16 Grindavik W 3-142.7 1312 1295 47.60% 14.12% 38.28%+0.36 +9.7 3
2005-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-342.7 1295 1312 38.28% 14.12% 47.60%-0.36 -9.7 0
2005-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-039.0 1294 1370 34.55% 14.07% 51.38%-0.66 +21.0 3
2005-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-339.0 1370 1294 51.38% 14.07% 34.55%+0.66 -21.0 0
2005-05-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-039.8 1351 1316 50.10% 14.09% 35.81%+0.55 +5.6 3
2005-05-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-139.8 1316 1351 35.81% 14.09% 50.10%-0.55 -5.6 0
2005-05-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-248.9 1342 1323 47.79% 14.12% 38.10%+0.37 -6.8 0
2005-05-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-148.9 1323 1342 38.10% 14.12% 47.79%-0.37 +6.8 3
2005-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-536.3 1285 1398 29.86% 13.95% 56.19%-1.06 -14.1 0
2005-05-22 @ Grindavik W 5-136.3 1398 1285 56.19% 13.95% 29.86%+1.06 +14.1 6
2005-05-22 Fram Reykjavik W 1-040.5 1330 1315 47.22% 14.12% 38.66%+0.33 +6.0 6
2005-05-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.5 1315 1330 38.66% 14.12% 47.22%-0.33 -6.0 3
2005-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-246.8 1310 1335 41.53% 14.14% 44.33%-0.11 -6.0 0
2005-05-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-146.8 1335 1310 44.33% 14.14% 41.53%+0.11 +6.0 3
2005-05-22 Keflavik IF L 2-355.0 1349 1309 50.76% 14.08% 35.16%+0.61 -6.8 0
2005-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-255.0 1309 1349 35.16% 14.08% 50.76%-0.61 +6.8 3
2005-05-23 IA Akranes W 2-039.7 1322 1357 40.17% 14.13% 45.69%-0.21 +13.0 6
2005-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-239.7 1357 1322 45.69% 14.13% 40.17%+0.21 -13.0 3
2005-05-26 Grindavik W 3-248.7 1344 1271 55.00% 13.98% 31.02%+0.96 +4.4 6
2005-05-26 @ IA Akranes L 2-348.7 1271 1344 31.02% 13.98% 55.00%-0.96 -4.4 0
2005-05-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-034.2 1413 1343 54.64% 13.99% 31.37%+0.93 +13.6 9
2005-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-334.2 1343 1413 31.37% 13.99% 54.64%-0.93 -13.6 0
2005-05-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-147.5 1316 1336 42.22% 14.14% 43.64%-0.05 +6.2 6
2005-05-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-247.5 1336 1316 43.64% 14.14% 42.22%+0.05 -6.2 6
2005-05-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.5 1341 1335 46.03% 14.13% 39.84%+0.24 -6.6 3
2005-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-148.5 1335 1341 39.84% 14.13% 46.03%-0.24 +6.5 9
2005-05-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-035.2 1309 1304 45.88% 14.13% 39.98%+0.23 +16.8 6
2005-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-335.2 1304 1309 39.98% 14.13% 45.88%-0.23 -16.8 0
2005-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-139.9 1330 1426 31.94% 14.01% 54.06%-0.88 -5.0 6
2005-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-039.9 1426 1330 54.06% 14.01% 31.94%+0.88 +5.0 12
2005-05-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-337.9 1348 1335 47.04% 14.12% 38.84%+0.31 -19.4 6
2005-05-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-037.9 1335 1348 38.84% 14.12% 47.04%-0.31 +19.4 6
2005-05-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-148.8 1267 1329 36.39% 14.10% 49.52%-0.51 +7.0 3
2005-05-30 @ Grindavik L 1-248.8 1329 1267 49.52% 14.10% 36.39%+0.51 -7.0 0
2005-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 3-035.2 1342 1326 47.31% 14.12% 38.56%+0.34 +16.3 12
2005-05-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-335.2 1326 1342 38.56% 14.12% 47.31%-0.34 -16.3 6
2005-05-31 Keflavik IF D 2-263.3 1287 1322 40.20% 14.13% 45.67%-0.21 +0.1 1
2005-05-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-263.3 1322 1287 45.67% 14.13% 40.20%+0.21 -0.1 7
2005-06-11 IA Akranes D 0-053.3 1310 1329 42.42% 14.14% 43.44%-0.04 +0.0 7
2005-06-11 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-053.3 1329 1310 43.44% 14.14% 42.42%+0.04 -0.0 7
2005-06-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-139.1 1431 1287 63.35% 13.63% 23.01%+1.73 +6.1 15
2005-06-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-339.1 1287 1431 23.01% 13.63% 63.35%-1.73 -6.1 1
2005-06-12 Grindavik W 2-143.2 1354 1274 55.98% 13.95% 30.07%+1.04 +4.5 9
2005-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-243.2 1274 1354 30.07% 13.95% 55.98%-1.04 -4.5 3
2005-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-146.7 1322 1325 44.75% 14.14% 41.11%+0.14 +5.9 3
2005-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-246.7 1325 1322 41.11% 14.14% 44.75%-0.14 -5.9 6
2005-06-12 Valur Reykjavik L 1-539.3 1322 1358 39.98% 14.13% 45.88%-0.23 -18.3 7
2005-06-12 @ Keflavik IF W 5-139.3 1358 1322 45.88% 14.13% 39.98%+0.23 +18.3 15
2005-06-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-142.5 1376 1437 36.56% 14.10% 49.34%-0.49 -5.7 15
2005-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-042.5 1437 1376 49.34% 14.10% 36.56%+0.49 +5.7 18
2005-06-15 Keflavik IF L 1-248.8 1329 1304 48.70% 14.11% 37.19%+0.44 -6.9 7
2005-06-15 @ IA Akranes W 2-148.8 1304 1329 37.19% 14.11% 48.70%-0.44 +6.9 10
2005-06-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-158.0 1359 1310 51.87% 14.06% 34.07%+0.70 -0.6 10
2005-06-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-158.0 1310 1359 34.07% 14.06% 51.87%-0.70 +0.6 8
2005-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-036.7 1281 1328 38.52% 14.12% 47.35%-0.34 +25.5 4
2005-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-436.7 1328 1281 47.35% 14.12% 38.52%+0.34 -25.5 3
2005-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-052.9 1269 1319 38.11% 14.12% 47.77%-0.37 +0.4 4
2005-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-052.9 1319 1269 47.77% 14.12% 38.11%+0.37 -0.4 7
2005-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-263.8 1310 1358 38.37% 14.12% 47.51%-0.35 +0.2 11
2005-06-23 @ Keflavik IF D 2-263.8 1358 1310 47.51% 14.12% 38.37%+0.35 -0.2 11
2005-06-23 Grindavik L 0-143.6 1311 1270 50.82% 14.08% 35.10%+0.61 -7.6 8
2005-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-043.6 1270 1311 35.10% 14.08% 50.82%-0.61 +7.6 7
2005-06-23 IA Akranes W 2-034.8 1443 1322 60.83% 13.77% 25.40%+1.48 +7.7 21
2005-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-234.8 1322 1443 25.40% 13.77% 60.83%-1.48 -7.7 7
2005-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-251.3 1319 1307 46.79% 14.13% 39.09%+0.29 +5.4 10
2005-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-351.3 1307 1319 39.09% 14.13% 46.79%-0.29 -5.4 4
2005-06-23 Valur Reykjavik W 1-044.2 1303 1371 35.60% 14.09% 50.32%-0.57 +7.5 6
2005-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-144.2 1371 1303 50.32% 14.09% 35.60%+0.57 -7.5 15
2005-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-543.9 1358 1451 32.38% 14.02% 53.60%-0.84 -10.2 11
2005-06-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-243.9 1451 1358 53.60% 14.02% 32.38%+0.84 +10.2 24
2005-06-26 Keflavik IF L 2-352.7 1303 1311 44.06% 14.14% 41.80%+0.09 -6.0 8
2005-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-252.7 1311 1303 41.80% 14.14% 44.06%-0.09 +6.0 14
2005-06-26 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-157.2 1277 1301 41.67% 14.14% 44.19%-0.10 +0.1 8
2005-06-26 @ Grindavik D 1-157.2 1301 1277 44.19% 14.14% 41.67%+0.10 -0.1 5
2005-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-034.4 1363 1324 50.59% 14.08% 35.33%+0.59 +15.1 18
2005-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-334.4 1324 1363 35.33% 14.08% 50.59%-0.59 -15.1 10
2005-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-037.5 1314 1310 45.74% 14.13% 40.12%+0.21 +11.6 10
2005-06-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-237.5 1310 1314 40.12% 14.13% 45.74%-0.21 -11.6 6
2005-06-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-139.1 1461 1297 65.46% 13.50% 21.04%+1.95 +5.6 27
2005-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-339.1 1297 1461 21.04% 13.50% 65.46%-1.95 -5.6 8
2005-06-30 Grindavik D 1-157.3 1317 1277 50.60% 14.08% 35.32%+0.59 -0.5 15
2005-06-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-157.3 1277 1317 35.32% 14.08% 50.60%-0.59 +0.5 9
2005-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-236.3 1301 1378 34.44% 14.06% 51.49%-0.67 -10.2 5
2005-06-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-036.3 1378 1301 51.49% 14.06% 34.44%+0.67 +10.2 21
2005-07-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-334.9 1298 1348 38.16% 14.12% 47.72%-0.37 -16.2 6
2005-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-034.9 1348 1298 47.72% 14.12% 38.16%+0.37 +16.2 14
2005-07-07 IA Akranes L 0-238.4 1309 1326 42.69% 14.14% 43.17%-0.02 -12.3 10
2005-07-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-038.4 1326 1309 43.17% 14.14% 42.69%+0.02 +12.3 13
2005-07-08 Keflavik IF W 2-034.1 1466 1316 64.07% 13.59% 22.34%+1.80 +6.8 30
2005-07-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-234.1 1316 1466 22.34% 13.59% 64.07%-1.80 -6.8 15
2005-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-037.7 1282 1291 43.83% 14.14% 42.03%+0.07 +12.1 9
2005-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-237.7 1291 1282 42.03% 14.14% 43.83%-0.07 -12.1 8
2005-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-342.4 1297 1364 35.70% 14.09% 50.21%-0.56 -9.1 10
2005-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-142.4 1364 1297 50.21% 14.09% 35.70%+0.56 +9.1 17
2005-07-12 IA Akranes D 0-053.2 1291 1338 38.47% 14.12% 47.40%-0.34 +0.3 6
2005-07-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-053.2 1338 1291 47.40% 14.12% 38.47%+0.34 -0.3 14
2005-07-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-138.1 1278 1388 30.17% 13.96% 55.87%-1.03 -4.8 9
2005-07-12 @ Grindavik W 1-038.1 1388 1278 55.87% 13.96% 30.17%+1.03 +4.8 24
2005-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-435.4 1279 1287 43.98% 14.14% 41.88%+0.08 -23.9 8
2005-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-035.4 1287 1279 41.88% 14.14% 43.98%-0.08 +23.9 13
2005-07-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-145.8 1373 1292 56.09% 13.95% 29.96%+1.05 -8.3 17
2005-07-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-045.8 1292 1373 29.96% 13.95% 56.09%-1.05 +8.3 9
2005-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-263.3 1309 1294 47.24% 14.12% 38.64%+0.33 -0.2 16
2005-07-18 @ Keflavik IF D 2-263.3 1294 1309 38.64% 14.12% 47.24%-0.33 +0.2 10
2005-07-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-137.2 1295 1473 22.59% 13.61% 63.80%-1.77 -3.7 10
2005-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.2 1473 1295 63.80% 13.61% 22.59%+1.77 +3.7 33
2005-07-24 Keflavik IF L 1-344.9 1311 1309 45.47% 14.14% 40.40%+0.19 -11.2 13
2005-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-144.9 1309 1311 40.40% 14.14% 45.47%-0.19 +11.2 19
2005-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-143.6 1300 1255 51.29% 14.07% 34.64%+0.65 -7.6 9
2005-07-25 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-043.6 1255 1300 34.64% 14.07% 51.29%-0.65 +7.6 11
2005-07-26 IA Akranes L 1-342.0 1273 1338 36.04% 14.09% 49.86%-0.54 -9.2 9
2005-07-26 @ Grindavik W 3-142.0 1338 1273 49.86% 14.09% 36.04%+0.54 +9.2 17
2005-07-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-144.0 1393 1365 49.14% 14.10% 36.76%+0.48 +9.3 27
2005-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-344.0 1365 1393 36.76% 14.10% 49.14%-0.48 -9.3 17
2005-08-07 IA Akranes L 2-354.2 1355 1347 46.31% 14.13% 39.56%+0.26 -6.2 17
2005-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-254.2 1347 1355 39.56% 14.13% 46.31%-0.26 +6.2 20
2005-08-07 KR Reykjavik W 2-033.2 1477 1300 66.76% 13.41% 19.83%+2.09 +6.1 36
2005-08-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-233.2 1300 1477 19.83% 13.41% 66.76%-2.09 -6.1 13
2005-08-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-367.5 1320 1292 49.06% 14.10% 36.84%+0.47 -0.3 20
2005-08-07 @ Keflavik IF D 3-367.5 1292 1320 36.84% 14.10% 49.06%-0.47 +0.3 10
2005-08-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-152.3 1263 1402 26.78% 13.83% 59.39%-1.35 +8.3 14
2005-08-08 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-252.3 1402 1263 59.39% 13.83% 26.78%+1.35 -8.3 27
2005-08-10 Grindavik W 8-030.7 1483 1264 70.63% 13.07% 16.30%+2.55 +18.5 39
2005-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-830.7 1264 1483 16.30% 13.07% 70.63%-2.55 -18.5 9
2005-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 1-247.4 1353 1394 39.31% 14.13% 46.56%-0.28 -5.7 20
2005-08-11 @ IA Akranes W 2-147.4 1394 1353 46.56% 14.13% 39.31%+0.28 +5.7 30
2005-08-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-250.7 1348 1271 55.44% 13.97% 30.59%+1.00 -7.8 20
2005-08-14 @ IA Akranes W 2-150.7 1271 1348 30.59% 13.97% 55.44%-1.00 +7.8 17
2005-08-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-039.5 1245 1349 31.01% 13.98% 55.00%-0.96 +22.3 12
2005-08-14 @ Grindavik L 0-339.5 1349 1245 55.00% 13.98% 31.01%+0.96 -22.3 17
2005-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-040.5 1294 1291 45.58% 14.13% 40.29%+0.20 +6.2 16
2005-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-140.5 1291 1294 40.29% 14.13% 45.58%-0.20 -6.2 10
2005-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-534.9 1292 1502 19.71% 13.40% 66.89%-2.11 -9.6 10
2005-08-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-134.9 1502 1292 66.89% 13.40% 19.71%+2.11 +9.6 42
2005-08-15 Keflavik IF D 0-054.3 1400 1320 55.92% 13.96% 30.13%+1.04 -1.0 31
2005-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-054.3 1320 1400 30.13% 13.96% 55.92%-1.04 +1.0 21
2005-08-18 Grindavik W 5-137.8 1285 1268 47.53% 14.12% 38.35%+0.35 +17.7 13
2005-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-537.8 1268 1285 38.35% 14.12% 47.53%-0.35 -17.7 12
2005-08-21 Grindavik W 3-141.0 1300 1250 52.05% 14.05% 33.89%+0.71 +8.7 19
2005-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-341.0 1250 1300 33.89% 14.05% 52.05%-0.71 -8.7 12
2005-08-21 IA Akranes L 0-141.8 1321 1340 42.44% 14.14% 43.41%-0.04 -6.5 21
2005-08-21 @ Keflavik IF W 1-041.8 1340 1321 43.41% 14.14% 42.44%+0.04 +6.5 23
2005-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-036.6 1302 1283 47.89% 14.12% 38.00%+0.38 +11.1 16
2005-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-236.6 1283 1302 38.00% 14.12% 47.89%-0.38 -11.1 10
2005-08-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-038.9 1511 1399 59.84% 13.81% 26.35%+1.39 +8.0 45
2005-08-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-238.9 1399 1511 26.35% 13.81% 59.84%-1.39 -8.0 31
2005-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-245.5 1279 1327 38.39% 14.12% 47.49%-0.35 -5.6 17
2005-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-145.5 1327 1279 47.49% 14.12% 38.39%+0.35 +5.6 20
2005-08-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-157.2 1346 1519 23.17% 13.64% 63.18%-1.71 +8.8 26
2005-08-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-257.2 1519 1346 63.18% 13.64% 23.17%+1.71 -8.8 45
2005-08-28 Fram Reykjavik W 3-144.3 1241 1274 40.55% 14.14% 45.32%-0.18 +11.2 15
2005-08-28 @ Grindavik L 1-344.3 1274 1241 45.32% 14.14% 40.55%+0.18 -11.2 17
2005-08-28 KR Reykjavik L 0-140.3 1272 1309 39.85% 14.13% 46.01%-0.23 -6.1 10
2005-08-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-040.3 1309 1272 46.01% 14.13% 39.85%+0.23 +6.1 22
2005-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-158.4 1391 1313 55.60% 13.97% 30.43%+1.01 -0.9 32
2005-08-29 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-158.4 1313 1391 30.43% 13.97% 55.60%-1.01 +0.9 17
2005-08-30 Keflavik IF L 0-143.2 1332 1314 47.65% 14.12% 38.23%+0.36 -7.2 20
2005-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-043.2 1314 1332 38.23% 14.12% 47.65%-0.36 +7.2 24
2005-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-143.7 1322 1262 53.26% 14.03% 32.71%+0.81 +4.8 27
2005-09-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-243.7 1262 1322 32.71% 14.03% 53.26%-0.81 -4.8 17
2005-09-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-257.6 1510 1325 67.57% 13.34% 19.08%+2.18 -9.4 45
2005-09-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-157.6 1325 1510 19.08% 13.34% 67.57%-2.18 +9.4 23
2005-09-11 Grindavik W 3-250.6 1266 1253 46.99% 14.13% 38.89%+0.31 +5.4 13
2005-09-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-350.6 1253 1266 38.89% 14.13% 46.99%-0.31 -5.4 15
2005-09-11 IA Akranes L 0-237.7 1314 1355 39.35% 14.13% 46.52%-0.27 -11.4 17
2005-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-037.7 1355 1314 46.52% 14.13% 39.35%+0.27 +11.4 29
2005-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 2-041.7 1315 1390 34.67% 14.07% 51.26%-0.65 +14.4 25
2005-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-241.7 1390 1315 51.26% 14.07% 34.67%+0.65 -14.4 32
2005-09-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-533.2 1258 1501 16.81% 13.12% 70.07%-2.48 -8.3 17
2005-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-133.2 1501 1258 70.07% 13.12% 16.81%+2.48 +8.3 48
2005-09-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-039.7 1335 1303 49.55% 14.10% 36.35%+0.51 +5.7 26
2005-09-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-139.7 1303 1335 36.35% 14.10% 49.55%-0.51 -5.7 17
2005-09-17 Keflavik IF W 2-149.3 1247 1327 34.12% 14.06% 51.83%-0.69 +7.3 18
2005-09-17 @ Grindavik L 1-249.3 1327 1247 51.83% 14.06% 34.12%+0.69 -7.3 27
2005-09-17 KR Reykjavik W 2-145.6 1366 1329 50.30% 14.09% 35.61%+0.57 +5.2 32
2005-09-17 @ IA Akranes L 1-245.6 1329 1366 35.61% 14.09% 50.30%-0.57 -5.2 25
2005-09-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-251.9 1376 1271 58.93% 13.85% 27.22%+1.31 -8.2 32
2005-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-151.9 1271 1376 27.22% 13.85% 58.93%-1.31 +8.2 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-09-11 19.08% Fylkir Reykjavik 1325 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1510 1
2 2005-08-28 23.17% @ IA Akranes 1346 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1519 1
3 2005-08-08 26.78% @ Fram Reykjavik 1263 2 Valur Reykjavik 1402 1
4 2005-09-17 27.22% Throttur Reykjavik 1271 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1376 1
5 2005-07-17 29.96% Throttur Reykjavik 1292 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1373 0
6 2005-08-14 30.59% Fram Reykjavik 1271 2 @ IA Akranes 1348 1
7 2005-08-14 31.01% @ Grindavik 1245 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1349 0
8 2005-09-17 34.12% @ Grindavik 1247 2 Keflavik IF 1327 1
9 2005-05-16 34.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 1294 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1370 0
10 2005-07-25 34.64% Fram Reykjavik 1255 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1300 0
11 2005-09-11 34.67% @ KR Reykjavik 1315 2 Valur Reykjavik 1390 0
12 2005-06-23 35.10% Grindavik 1270 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1311 0
13 2005-05-22 35.16% Keflavik IF 1309 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1349 2
14 2005-06-23 35.60% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 1 Valur Reykjavik 1371 0
15 2005-05-30 36.39% @ Grindavik 1267 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1329 1
16 2005-06-15 37.19% Keflavik IF 1304 2 @ IA Akranes 1329 1
17 2005-05-17 38.10% KR Reykjavik 1323 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1342 1
18 2005-08-30 38.23% Keflavik IF 1314 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1332 0
19 2005-06-16 38.52% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1281 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1328 0
20 2005-05-30 38.84% Fylkir Reykjavik 1335 3 @ IA Akranes 1348 0
21 2005-08-07 39.56% IA Akranes 1347 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1355 2
22 2005-05-26 39.84% Valur Reykjavik 1335 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 1
23 2005-05-23 40.17% @ Valur Reykjavik 1322 2 IA Akranes 1357 0
24 2005-07-24 40.40% Keflavik IF 1309 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1311 1
25 2005-08-28 40.55% @ Grindavik 1241 3 Fram Reykjavik 1274 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-06-16 25.47 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1281 38.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1328 47.35% 14.12%
2 2005-07-17 23.88 KR Reykjavik 4 1287 41.88% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1279 43.98% 14.14%
3 2005-08-14 22.34 @ Grindavik 3 1245 31.01% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1349 55.00% 13.98%
4 2005-05-16 20.98 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1294 34.55% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1370 51.38% 14.07%
5 2005-05-30 19.38 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1335 38.84% @ IA Akranes 0 1348 47.04% 14.12%
6 2005-08-10 18.52 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 8 1483 70.63% Grindavik 0 1264 16.30% 13.07%
7 2005-06-12 18.32 Valur Reykjavik 5 1358 45.88% @ Keflavik IF 1 1322 39.98% 14.13%
8 2005-08-18 17.67 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1285 47.53% Grindavik 1 1268 38.35% 14.12%
9 2005-05-27 16.83 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1309 45.88% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1304 39.98% 14.13%
10 2005-05-31 16.31 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1342 47.31% Fram Reykjavik 0 1326 38.56% 14.12%
11 2005-07-02 16.16 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1348 47.72% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1298 38.16% 14.12%
12 2005-05-16 15.72 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1383 48.94% @ Keflavik IF 0 1325 36.96% 14.10%
13 2005-06-27 15.11 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1363 50.59% KR Reykjavik 0 1324 35.33% 14.08%
14 2005-09-11 14.42 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1315 34.67% Valur Reykjavik 0 1390 51.26% 14.07%
15 2005-05-22 14.15 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1398 56.19% @ Grindavik 1 1285 29.86% 13.95%
16 2005-05-26 13.59 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1413 54.64% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1343 31.37% 13.99%
17 2005-05-23 13.01 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1322 40.17% IA Akranes 0 1357 45.69% 14.13%
18 2005-07-07 12.26 IA Akranes 2 1326 43.17% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1309 42.69% 14.14%
19 2005-07-10 12.10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1282 43.83% Fram Reykjavik 0 1291 42.03% 14.14%
20 2005-06-29 11.62 @ IA Akranes 2 1314 45.74% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1310 40.12% 14.13%
21 2005-09-11 11.43 IA Akranes 2 1355 46.52% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1314 39.35% 14.13%
22 2005-07-24 11.21 Keflavik IF 3 1309 40.40% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1311 45.47% 14.14%
23 2005-08-28 11.19 @ Grindavik 3 1241 40.55% Fram Reykjavik 1 1274 45.32% 14.14%
24 2005-08-21 11.08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1302 47.89% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1283 38.00% 14.12%
25 2005-06-26 10.21 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1451 53.60% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1358 32.38% 14.02%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-08-07 67.5 @ Keflavik IF 3 1320 49.06% Throttur Reykjavik 3 1292 36.84% 14.10%
2 2005-06-23 63.8 @ Keflavik IF 2 1310 38.37% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1358 47.51% 14.12%
3 2005-05-31 63.3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1287 40.20% Keflavik IF 2 1322 45.67% 14.13%
4 2005-07-18 63.3 @ Keflavik IF 2 1309 47.24% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1294 38.64% 14.12%
5 2005-08-29 58.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1391 55.60% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1313 30.43% 13.97%
6 2005-06-16 58.0 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1359 51.87% Fram Reykjavik 1 1310 34.07% 14.06%
7 2005-09-11 57.6 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1325 19.08% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1510 67.57% 13.34%
8 2005-06-30 57.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1317 50.60% Grindavik 1 1277 35.32% 14.08%
9 2005-06-26 57.2 @ Grindavik 1 1277 41.67% Throttur Reykjavik 1 1301 44.19% 14.14%
10 2005-08-28 57.2 @ IA Akranes 2 1346 23.17% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1519 63.18% 13.64%
11 2005-05-22 55.0 Keflavik IF 3 1309 35.16% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1349 50.76% 14.08%
12 2005-08-15 54.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1400 55.92% Keflavik IF 0 1320 30.13% 13.96%
13 2005-08-07 54.2 IA Akranes 3 1347 39.56% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1355 46.31% 14.13%
14 2005-06-11 53.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1310 42.42% IA Akranes 0 1329 43.44% 14.14%
15 2005-07-12 53.2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1291 38.47% IA Akranes 0 1338 47.40% 14.12%
16 2005-06-16 52.9 @ Grindavik 0 1269 38.11% KR Reykjavik 0 1319 47.77% 14.12%
17 2005-06-26 52.7 Keflavik IF 3 1311 41.80% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1303 44.06% 14.14%
18 2005-08-08 52.3 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1263 26.78% Valur Reykjavik 1 1402 59.39% 13.83%
19 2005-09-17 51.9 Throttur Reykjavik 2 1271 27.22% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1376 58.93% 13.85%
20 2005-06-23 51.3 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1319 46.79% Throttur Reykjavik 2 1307 39.09% 14.13%
21 2005-08-14 50.7 Fram Reykjavik 2 1271 30.59% @ IA Akranes 1 1348 55.44% 13.97%
22 2005-09-11 50.6 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1266 46.99% Grindavik 2 1253 38.89% 14.13%
23 2005-09-17 49.3 @ Grindavik 2 1247 34.12% Keflavik IF 1 1327 51.83% 14.06%
24 2005-05-17 48.9 KR Reykjavik 2 1323 38.10% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1342 47.79% 14.12%
25 2005-05-30 48.8 @ Grindavik 2 1267 36.39% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1329 49.52% 14.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-08-10 30.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 8 1483 70.63% Grindavik 0 1264 16.30% 13.07%
2 2005-08-07 33.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1477 66.76% KR Reykjavik 0 1300 19.83% 13.41%
3 2005-09-17 33.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1501 70.07% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1258 16.81% 13.12%
4 2005-07-08 34.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1466 64.07% Keflavik IF 0 1316 22.34% 13.59%
5 2005-05-26 34.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1413 54.64% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1343 31.37% 13.99%
6 2005-06-27 34.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1363 50.59% KR Reykjavik 0 1324 35.33% 14.08%
7 2005-06-23 34.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1443 60.83% IA Akranes 0 1322 25.40% 13.77%
8 2005-07-02 34.9 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1348 47.72% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1298 38.16% 14.12%
9 2005-08-15 34.9 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1502 66.89% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1292 19.71% 13.40%
10 2005-05-16 35.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1383 48.94% @ Keflavik IF 0 1325 36.96% 14.10%
11 2005-05-27 35.2 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1309 45.88% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1304 39.98% 14.13%
12 2005-05-31 35.2 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1342 47.31% Fram Reykjavik 0 1326 38.56% 14.12%
13 2005-07-17 35.4 KR Reykjavik 4 1287 41.88% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1279 43.98% 14.14%
14 2005-05-22 36.3 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1398 56.19% @ Grindavik 1 1285 29.86% 13.95%
15 2005-06-30 36.3 Valur Reykjavik 2 1378 51.49% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1301 34.44% 14.06%
16 2005-08-21 36.6 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1302 47.89% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1283 38.00% 14.12%
17 2005-06-16 36.7 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1281 38.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1328 47.35% 14.12%
18 2005-07-24 37.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1473 63.80% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1295 22.59% 13.61%
19 2005-06-29 37.5 @ IA Akranes 2 1314 45.74% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1310 40.12% 14.13%
20 2005-07-10 37.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1282 43.83% Fram Reykjavik 0 1291 42.03% 14.14%
21 2005-09-11 37.7 IA Akranes 2 1355 46.52% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1314 39.35% 14.13%
22 2005-08-18 37.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1285 47.53% Grindavik 1 1268 38.35% 14.12%
23 2005-05-30 37.9 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1335 38.84% @ IA Akranes 0 1348 47.04% 14.12%
24 2005-07-12 38.1 Valur Reykjavik 1 1388 55.87% @ Grindavik 0 1278 30.17% 13.96%
25 2005-07-07 38.4 IA Akranes 2 1326 43.17% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1309 42.69% 14.14%