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2005 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

48 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 2004.0

Relegated

Throttur Reykjavik

16 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

12.59 points above expected

48 points · 35.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

7.63 points below expected

17 points · 24.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 16 0 2 48 53 11 +42 35.41 +12.59
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 10 2 6 32 29 16 +13 28.66 +3.34
3 IA Akranes 18 10 2 6 32 24 20 +4 26.56 +5.44
4 Keflavik IF 18 7 6 5 27 28 31 -3 24.65 +2.35
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 2 8 26 28 28 0 27.13 -1.13
6 KR Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 22 24 -2 24.48 +0.52
7 Grindavik 18 5 3 10 18 23 41 -18 20.95 -2.95
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 2 11 17 18 30 -12 24.63 -7.63
9 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 2 11 17 19 32 -13 22.35 -5.35
10 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 4 10 16 21 32 -11 22.55 -6.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1515 48 35.41 +12.59 99.3% 13 26 32 36 39 44 54
IA Akranes 1378 32 26.56 +5.44 84.8% 8 17 23 27 31 36 51
Valur Reykjavik 1373 32 28.66 +3.34 74.2% 9 19 25 29 33 38 52
Fylkir Reykjavik 1346 26 27.13 -1.13 45.7% 7 17 23 27 31 37 49
KR Reykjavik 1330 25 24.48 +0.52 57.6% 4 15 21 24 28 34 47
Keflavik IF 1325 27 24.65 +2.35 68.4% 4 15 21 25 29 34 45
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 17 24.63 -7.63 10.9% 4 15 21 25 29 34 46
Throttur Reykjavik 1285 16 22.55 -6.55 15.0% 2 13 19 22 27 32 43
Grindavik 1260 18 20.95 -2.95 33.8% 0 12 17 21 25 30 43
Fram Reykjavik 1255 17 22.35 -5.35 20.6% 5 13 18 22 26 32 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KR KI TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
3.91
2-0-0
4.07
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.56
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.40
 —
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-2
3.16
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.59
2-0-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.24
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.82
1-1-0
3.26
 —
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.14
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-2
2.77
Grindavik
0-0-2
1.65
2-0-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.11
 —
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.44
1-1-0
2.37
0-1-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.34
IA Akranes
1-0-1
1.73
0-1-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
3.43
 —
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.84
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.67
 —
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
2.26
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.83
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.28
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
2.88
 —
0-0-2
2.96
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.38
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.05
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
2.58
0-1-1
3.35
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
2.76
 —
0-2-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.38
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.55
0-0-2
3.02
1-0-1
2.42
1-1-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.65
0-2-0
2.59
 —
1-0-1
2.13
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
3.48
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
2.88
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +9.0
Allowed 0.76 -9.8
Differential 0.94 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%8.33%6.67%5.00%1.11%0.56%26.11%
18.33%4.44%10.00%5.00%—2.78%30.56%
26.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%—0.56%23.89%
35.00%5.00%3.33%1.11%——14.44%
41.11%—————1.11%
5+0.56%2.78%0.56%———3.89%
Total26.11%30.56%23.89%14.44%1.11%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 2.08
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
222.22%—————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+5.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 0.61 +2.33
SD 1.95 0.78 2.03
CV 0.66 1.27 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 1.00 1.48 2.02
CV 0.95 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 0.98 1.29 1.78
CV 0.63 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%—11.11%50.00%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%5.56%27.78%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.28 -1.00
SD 0.89 2.11 2.54
CV 0.70 0.93 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%—16.67%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.11 +0.22
SD 1.08 1.02 1.56
CV 0.81 0.92 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.67 -0.67
SD 1.33 1.19 2.09
CV 1.33 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%—16.67%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.33 -0.11
SD 1.17 1.14 1.84
CV 0.95 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.72 -0.17
SD 1.10 1.18 1.54
CV 0.70 0.68 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.78 -0.61
SD 1.25 1.31 1.79
CV 1.07 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.89 +0.72
SD 1.42 0.76 1.81
CV 0.88 0.85 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 48 35.41 +12.59
2 IA Akranes 32 26.56 +5.44
3 Valur Reykjavik 32 28.66 +3.34
4 Keflavik IF 27 24.65 +2.35
5 KR Reykjavik 25 24.48 +0.52

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 24.63 -7.63
2 Throttur Reykjavik 16 22.55 -6.55
3 Fram Reykjavik 17 22.35 -5.35
4 Grindavik 18 20.95 -2.95
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 26 27.13 -1.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 2,373
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 61
3 IA Akranes 4 Aug 21 – Sep 17 1 in 42
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 35
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 14 – Sep 11 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 17 1 in 57
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 55
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 41
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 28 – Sep 11 1 in 23
5 KR Reykjavik 3 May 26 – Jun 12 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 104
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 15
3 Grindavik 4 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 14
4 IA Akranes 5 Jun 29 – Aug 7 1 in 14
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 31 – Jul 17 1 in 61
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 15 – Sep 17 1 in 35
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 15
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 12
5 Throttur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 11 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur58.64%19.45%9.67%5.12%2.99%1.76%1.17%0.65%0.36%0.19%
Valur Reykjavik12.34%20.18%16.48%13.39%10.49%8.80%6.48%5.67%3.88%2.29%
IA Akranes6.67%13.08%13.98%13.33%12.56%10.91%9.78%8.17%6.78%4.74%
Keflavik IF3.92%7.49%9.98%11.87%12.03%11.68%12.02%11.36%10.64%9.01%
Fylkir Reykjavik7.36%14.03%15.06%13.15%12.31%10.98%9.69%7.42%5.72%4.28%
KR Reykjavik3.58%7.25%9.82%10.99%12.14%11.98%12.42%11.58%11.21%9.03%
Grindavik0.81%2.42%3.65%6.04%7.20%9.42%11.46%14.39%18.67%25.94%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar3.66%7.54%8.90%10.35%11.83%12.59%11.90%12.27%11.41%9.55%
Fram Reykjavik1.52%4.32%5.81%7.33%9.26%11.09%12.13%14.73%15.84%17.97%
Throttur Reykjavik1.50%4.24%6.65%8.43%9.19%10.79%12.95%13.76%15.49%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
45.56%13.33%41.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
92 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.89/gm
Runaway
00.261.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.63 * Some Luck: 4.63 to 6.95 * Lucky: 6.95 to 9.26 * Wild Swing: 9.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.76 * Close: 1.76 to 2.64 * Off: 2.64 to 3.52 * Way Off: 3.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.22 * A Surprise: 1.22 to 1.95 * Several Surprises: 1.95 to 2.67 * Many Surprises: 2.67 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.87 points
Some Luck
05.7914
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.205
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.35%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
10.88%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.56
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.19
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%35%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.059
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.45% 0.55%
Valur Reykjavik 93.83% 6.17%
Fylkir Reykjavik 90.00% 10.00%
IA Akranes 88.48% 11.52%
Keflavik IF 80.35% 19.65%
KR Reykjavik 79.76% 20.24%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 79.04% 20.96%
Throttur Reykjavik 67.51% 32.49%
Fram Reykjavik 66.19% 33.81%
Grindavik 55.39% 44.61%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2005-05-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1330 1389 36.9% 14.1% 49.0% -15.7 0
2005-05-16 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1389 1330 49.0% 14.1% 36.9% +15.7 3
2005-05-16 Grindavik W 3-1 1318 1301 47.5% 14.1% 38.4% +9.7 3
2005-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1301 1318 38.4% 14.1% 47.5% -9.7 0
2005-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1300 1376 34.6% 14.1% 51.4% +21.0 3
2005-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1376 1300 51.4% 14.1% 34.6% -21.0 0
2005-05-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1357 1321 50.1% 14.1% 35.8% +5.6 3
2005-05-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1321 1357 35.8% 14.1% 50.1% -5.6 0
2005-05-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1348 1329 47.8% 14.1% 38.1% -6.8 0
2005-05-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1329 1348 38.1% 14.1% 47.8% +6.8 3
2005-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1291 1404 29.9% 14.0% 56.2% -14.2 0
2005-05-22 @ Grindavik W 5-1 1404 1291 56.2% 14.0% 29.9% +14.1 6
2005-05-22 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1336 1321 47.2% 14.1% 38.6% +6.0 6
2005-05-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1321 1336 38.6% 14.1% 47.2% -6.0 3
2005-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1316 1341 41.5% 14.1% 44.4% -6.0 0
2005-05-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1341 1316 44.4% 14.1% 41.5% +6.0 3
2005-05-22 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1355 1315 50.8% 14.1% 35.1% -6.8 0
2005-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1315 1355 35.1% 14.1% 50.8% +6.8 3
2005-05-23 IA Akranes W 2-0 1328 1363 40.1% 14.1% 45.8% +13.0 6
2005-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1363 1328 45.8% 14.1% 40.1% -13.0 3
2005-05-26 Grindavik W 3-2 1350 1277 55.0% 14.0% 31.0% +4.4 6
2005-05-26 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1277 1350 31.0% 14.0% 55.0% -4.4 0
2005-05-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1419 1348 54.7% 14.0% 31.3% +13.6 9
2005-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1348 1419 31.3% 14.0% 54.7% -13.6 0
2005-05-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1321 1342 42.2% 14.1% 43.7% +6.3 6
2005-05-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1342 1321 43.7% 14.1% 42.2% -6.3 6
2005-05-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1347 1341 46.1% 14.1% 39.8% -6.6 3
2005-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1341 1347 39.8% 14.1% 46.1% +6.6 9
2005-05-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1315 1310 45.9% 14.1% 40.0% +16.8 6
2005-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1310 1315 40.0% 14.1% 45.9% -16.8 0
2005-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1336 1432 31.9% 14.0% 54.1% -5.0 6
2005-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1432 1336 54.1% 14.0% 31.9% +5.0 12
2005-05-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1354 1341 47.0% 14.1% 38.8% -19.4 6
2005-05-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1341 1354 38.8% 14.1% 47.0% +19.4 6
2005-05-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1273 1335 36.4% 14.1% 49.5% +7.0 3
2005-05-30 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1335 1273 49.5% 14.1% 36.4% -7.0 0
2005-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1347 1332 47.3% 14.1% 38.6% +16.3 12
2005-05-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1332 1347 38.6% 14.1% 47.3% -16.3 6
2005-05-31 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1293 1328 40.2% 14.1% 45.7% +0.1 1
2005-05-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1328 1293 45.7% 14.1% 40.2% -0.1 7
2005-06-11 IA Akranes D 0-0 1316 1335 42.4% 14.1% 43.5% +0.0 7
2005-06-11 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1335 1316 43.5% 14.1% 42.4% -0.0 7
2005-06-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1437 1293 63.4% 13.6% 23.0% +6.1 15
2005-06-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1293 1437 23.0% 13.6% 63.4% -6.1 1
2005-06-12 Grindavik W 2-1 1360 1280 56.0% 14.0% 30.1% +4.5 9
2005-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1280 1360 30.1% 14.0% 56.0% -4.5 3
2005-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1328 1331 44.7% 14.1% 41.1% +5.9 3
2005-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1331 1328 41.1% 14.1% 44.7% -5.9 6
2005-06-12 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1327 1364 40.0% 14.1% 45.9% -18.3 7
2005-06-12 @ Keflavik IF W 5-1 1364 1327 45.9% 14.1% 40.0% +18.3 15
2005-06-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1382 1443 36.5% 14.1% 49.4% -5.7 15
2005-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1443 1382 49.4% 14.1% 36.5% +5.7 18
2005-06-15 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1335 1309 48.7% 14.1% 37.1% -6.9 7
2005-06-15 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1309 1335 37.1% 14.1% 48.7% +6.9 10
2005-06-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1365 1316 51.9% 14.1% 34.1% -0.6 10
2005-06-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1316 1365 34.1% 14.1% 51.9% +0.6 8
2005-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1287 1334 38.5% 14.1% 47.4% +25.5 4
2005-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1334 1287 47.4% 14.1% 38.5% -25.5 3
2005-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1275 1325 38.1% 14.1% 47.8% +0.4 4
2005-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1325 1275 47.8% 14.1% 38.1% -0.4 7
2005-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1316 1364 38.3% 14.1% 47.6% +0.2 11
2005-06-23 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1364 1316 47.6% 14.1% 38.3% -0.2 11
2005-06-23 Grindavik L 0-1 1316 1276 50.8% 14.1% 35.1% -7.6 8
2005-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1276 1316 35.1% 14.1% 50.8% +7.6 7
2005-06-23 IA Akranes W 2-0 1449 1328 60.9% 13.8% 25.4% +7.7 21
2005-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1328 1449 25.4% 13.8% 60.9% -7.7 7
2005-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1324 1312 46.8% 14.1% 39.1% +5.4 10
2005-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1312 1324 39.1% 14.1% 46.8% -5.4 4
2005-06-23 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1308 1376 35.6% 14.1% 50.3% +7.5 6
2005-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1376 1308 50.3% 14.1% 35.6% -7.5 15
2005-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-5 1364 1457 32.4% 14.0% 53.6% -10.2 11
2005-06-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-2 1457 1364 53.6% 14.0% 32.4% +10.2 24
2005-06-26 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1309 1316 44.1% 14.1% 41.8% -6.0 8
2005-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1316 1309 41.8% 14.1% 44.1% +6.0 14
2005-06-26 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1283 1307 41.7% 14.1% 44.1% +0.1 8
2005-06-26 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1307 1283 44.1% 14.1% 41.7% -0.1 5
2005-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1369 1330 50.5% 14.1% 35.4% +15.1 18
2005-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1330 1369 35.4% 14.1% 50.5% -15.1 10
2005-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1320 1316 45.8% 14.1% 40.1% +11.6 10
2005-06-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1316 1320 40.1% 14.1% 45.8% -11.6 6
2005-06-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1467 1303 65.5% 13.5% 21.0% +5.6 27
2005-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1303 1467 21.0% 13.5% 65.5% -5.6 8
2005-06-30 Grindavik D 1-1 1322 1283 50.5% 14.1% 35.4% -0.5 15
2005-06-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1283 1322 35.4% 14.1% 50.5% +0.5 9
2005-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1307 1384 34.4% 14.1% 51.5% -10.2 5
2005-06-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1384 1307 51.5% 14.1% 34.4% +10.2 21
2005-07-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1304 1354 38.1% 14.1% 47.8% -16.2 6
2005-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1354 1304 47.8% 14.1% 38.1% +16.1 14
2005-07-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1315 1332 42.7% 14.1% 43.2% -12.3 10
2005-07-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1332 1315 43.2% 14.1% 42.7% +12.3 13
2005-07-08 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1472 1322 64.1% 13.6% 22.3% +6.8 30
2005-07-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1322 1472 22.3% 13.6% 64.1% -6.8 15
2005-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1288 1297 43.8% 14.1% 42.0% +12.1 9
2005-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1297 1288 42.0% 14.1% 43.8% -12.1 8
2005-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1302 1370 35.7% 14.1% 50.2% -9.1 10
2005-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1370 1302 50.2% 14.1% 35.7% +9.1 17
2005-07-12 IA Akranes D 0-0 1297 1344 38.4% 14.1% 47.4% +0.4 6
2005-07-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1344 1297 47.4% 14.1% 38.4% -0.3 14
2005-07-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1284 1394 30.2% 14.0% 55.8% -4.8 9
2005-07-12 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1394 1284 55.8% 14.0% 30.2% +4.8 24
2005-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1285 1293 44.0% 14.1% 41.9% -23.9 8
2005-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1293 1285 41.9% 14.1% 44.0% +23.9 13
2005-07-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1379 1297 56.1% 14.0% 29.9% -8.3 17
2005-07-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1297 1379 29.9% 14.0% 56.1% +8.3 9
2005-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1315 1300 47.2% 14.1% 38.7% -0.2 16
2005-07-18 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1300 1315 38.7% 14.1% 47.2% +0.2 10
2005-07-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1300 1479 22.6% 13.6% 63.8% -3.7 10
2005-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1479 1300 63.8% 13.6% 22.6% +3.7 33
2005-07-24 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1317 1315 45.5% 14.1% 40.4% -11.2 13
2005-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1315 1317 40.4% 14.1% 45.5% +11.2 19
2005-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1306 1261 51.3% 14.1% 34.7% -7.6 9
2005-07-25 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1261 1306 34.7% 14.1% 51.3% +7.6 11
2005-07-26 IA Akranes L 1-3 1279 1344 36.1% 14.1% 49.9% -9.2 9
2005-07-26 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1344 1279 49.9% 14.1% 36.1% +9.2 17
2005-07-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1399 1371 49.1% 14.1% 36.8% +9.3 27
2005-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1371 1399 36.8% 14.1% 49.1% -9.3 17
2005-08-07 IA Akranes L 2-3 1361 1353 46.3% 14.1% 39.6% -6.2 17
2005-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1353 1361 39.6% 14.1% 46.3% +6.2 20
2005-08-07 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1483 1306 66.8% 13.4% 19.8% +6.1 36
2005-08-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1306 1483 19.8% 13.4% 66.8% -6.1 13
2005-08-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1326 1298 49.1% 14.1% 36.8% -0.3 20
2005-08-07 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1298 1326 36.8% 14.1% 49.1% +0.3 10
2005-08-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1269 1408 26.8% 13.8% 59.4% +8.3 14
2005-08-08 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1408 1269 59.4% 13.8% 26.8% -8.3 27
2005-08-10 Grindavik W 8-0 1489 1270 70.6% 13.1% 16.3% +18.5 39
2005-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-8 1270 1489 16.3% 13.1% 70.6% -18.5 9
2005-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1359 1400 39.4% 14.1% 46.5% -5.7 20
2005-08-11 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1400 1359 46.5% 14.1% 39.4% +5.7 30
2005-08-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1353 1277 55.5% 14.0% 30.6% -7.8 20
2005-08-14 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1277 1353 30.6% 14.0% 55.5% +7.8 17
2005-08-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1251 1355 31.0% 14.0% 55.0% +22.3 12
2005-08-14 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1355 1251 55.0% 14.0% 31.0% -22.3 17
2005-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1300 1297 45.6% 14.1% 40.3% +6.2 16
2005-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1297 1300 40.3% 14.1% 45.6% -6.2 10
2005-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1298 1508 19.7% 13.4% 66.9% -9.6 10
2005-08-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1508 1298 66.9% 13.4% 19.7% +9.6 42
2005-08-15 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1406 1326 55.9% 14.0% 30.1% -1.0 31
2005-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1326 1406 30.1% 14.0% 55.9% +1.0 21
2005-08-18 Grindavik W 5-1 1291 1274 47.5% 14.1% 38.4% +17.7 13
2005-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-5 1274 1291 38.4% 14.1% 47.5% -17.7 12
2005-08-21 Grindavik W 3-1 1306 1256 52.0% 14.1% 33.9% +8.7 19
2005-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1256 1306 33.9% 14.1% 52.0% -8.7 12
2005-08-21 IA Akranes L 0-1 1327 1346 42.4% 14.1% 43.5% -6.5 21
2005-08-21 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1346 1327 43.5% 14.1% 42.4% +6.5 23
2005-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1308 1289 47.9% 14.1% 38.0% +11.1 16
2005-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1289 1308 38.0% 14.1% 47.9% -11.1 10
2005-08-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1517 1405 59.9% 13.8% 26.3% +8.0 45
2005-08-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1405 1517 26.3% 13.8% 59.9% -8.0 31
2005-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1285 1333 38.4% 14.1% 47.5% -5.6 17
2005-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1333 1285 47.5% 14.1% 38.4% +5.6 20
2005-08-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1352 1525 23.2% 13.6% 63.2% +8.8 26
2005-08-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1525 1352 63.2% 13.6% 23.2% -8.8 45
2005-08-28 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1247 1279 40.6% 14.1% 45.3% +11.2 15
2005-08-28 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1279 1247 45.3% 14.1% 40.6% -11.2 17
2005-08-28 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1277 1315 39.8% 14.1% 46.0% -6.1 10
2005-08-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1315 1277 46.0% 14.1% 39.8% +6.1 22
2005-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1397 1319 55.6% 14.0% 30.4% -0.9 32
2005-08-29 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1319 1397 30.4% 14.0% 55.6% +0.9 17
2005-08-30 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1338 1320 47.7% 14.1% 38.2% -7.2 20
2005-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1320 1338 38.2% 14.1% 47.7% +7.2 24
2005-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1327 1268 53.2% 14.0% 32.7% +4.9 27
2005-09-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1268 1327 32.7% 14.0% 53.2% -4.9 17
2005-09-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1516 1331 67.6% 13.3% 19.1% -9.4 45
2005-09-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1331 1516 19.1% 13.3% 67.6% +9.4 23
2005-09-11 Grindavik W 3-2 1271 1259 46.9% 14.1% 38.9% +5.4 13
2005-09-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1259 1271 38.9% 14.1% 46.9% -5.4 15
2005-09-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1320 1361 39.3% 14.1% 46.5% -11.4 17
2005-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1361 1320 46.5% 14.1% 39.3% +11.4 29
2005-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1321 1396 34.7% 14.1% 51.2% +14.4 25
2005-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1396 1321 51.2% 14.1% 34.7% -14.4 32
2005-09-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1263 1507 16.8% 13.1% 70.1% -8.2 17
2005-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-1 1507 1263 70.1% 13.1% 16.8% +8.2 48
2005-09-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1340 1309 49.6% 14.1% 36.3% +5.6 26
2005-09-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1309 1340 36.3% 14.1% 49.6% -5.7 17
2005-09-17 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1253 1332 34.2% 14.1% 51.8% +7.3 18
2005-09-17 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1332 1253 51.8% 14.1% 34.2% -7.3 27
2005-09-17 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1372 1335 50.3% 14.1% 35.6% +5.2 32
2005-09-17 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1335 1372 35.6% 14.1% 50.3% -5.2 25
2005-09-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1381 1277 58.9% 13.9% 27.2% -8.2 32
2005-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1277 1381 27.2% 13.9% 58.9% +8.2 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-09-11 19.08% Fylkir Reykjavik 1331 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1516 1
2 2005-08-28 23.17% @ IA Akranes 1352 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1525 1
3 2005-08-08 26.80% @ Fram Reykjavik 1269 2 Valur Reykjavik 1408 1
4 2005-09-17 27.22% Throttur Reykjavik 1277 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1381 1
5 2005-07-17 29.92% Throttur Reykjavik 1297 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1379 0
6 2005-08-14 30.58% Fram Reykjavik 1277 2 @ IA Akranes 1353 1
7 2005-08-14 31.02% @ Grindavik 1251 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1355 0
8 2005-09-17 34.16% @ Grindavik 1253 2 Keflavik IF 1332 1
9 2005-05-16 34.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 1300 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1376 0
10 2005-07-25 34.66% Fram Reykjavik 1261 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1306 0
11 2005-09-11 34.70% @ KR Reykjavik 1321 2 Valur Reykjavik 1396 0
12 2005-06-23 35.13% Grindavik 1276 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1316 0
13 2005-05-22 35.14% Keflavik IF 1315 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1355 2
14 2005-06-23 35.63% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1308 1 Valur Reykjavik 1376 0
15 2005-05-30 36.42% @ Grindavik 1273 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1335 1
16 2005-06-15 37.15% Keflavik IF 1309 2 @ IA Akranes 1335 1
17 2005-05-17 38.08% KR Reykjavik 1329 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1348 1
18 2005-08-30 38.19% Keflavik IF 1320 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1338 0
19 2005-06-16 38.50% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1287 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1334 0
20 2005-05-30 38.84% Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 3 @ IA Akranes 1354 0
21 2005-08-07 39.55% IA Akranes 1353 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1361 2
22 2005-05-26 39.78% Valur Reykjavik 1341 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1347 1
23 2005-05-23 40.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 1328 2 IA Akranes 1363 0
24 2005-07-24 40.36% Keflavik IF 1315 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1317 1
25 2005-08-28 40.57% @ Grindavik 1247 3 Fram Reykjavik 1279 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-06-16 25.48 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1287 38.50% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1334 47.38% 14.12%
2 2005-07-17 23.87 KR Reykjavik 4 1293 41.88% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1285 43.97% 14.14%
3 2005-08-14 22.34 @ Grindavik 3 1251 31.02% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1355 54.99% 13.98%
4 2005-05-16 20.98 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1300 34.56% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1376 51.37% 14.07%
5 2005-05-30 19.38 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1341 38.84% @ IA Akranes 0 1354 47.03% 14.12%
6 2005-08-10 18.51 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 8 1489 70.63% Grindavik 0 1270 16.30% 13.07%
7 2005-06-12 18.32 Valur Reykjavik 5 1364 45.88% @ Keflavik IF 1 1327 39.99% 14.13%
8 2005-08-18 17.68 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1291 47.50% Grindavik 1 1274 38.38% 14.12%
9 2005-05-27 16.82 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1315 45.92% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1310 39.95% 14.13%
10 2005-05-31 16.32 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1347 47.28% Fram Reykjavik 0 1332 38.60% 14.12%
11 2005-07-02 16.15 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1354 47.75% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1304 38.13% 14.12%
12 2005-05-16 15.69 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1389 49.01% @ Keflavik IF 0 1330 36.88% 14.10%
13 2005-06-27 15.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1369 50.55% KR Reykjavik 0 1330 35.37% 14.08%
14 2005-09-11 14.41 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1321 34.70% Valur Reykjavik 0 1396 51.23% 14.07%
15 2005-05-22 14.15 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1404 56.19% @ Grindavik 1 1291 29.86% 13.95%
16 2005-05-26 13.57 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1419 54.68% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1348 31.33% 13.99%
17 2005-05-23 13.02 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1328 40.12% IA Akranes 0 1363 45.75% 14.13%
18 2005-07-07 12.26 IA Akranes 2 1332 43.18% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1315 42.68% 14.14%
19 2005-07-10 12.10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1288 43.83% Fram Reykjavik 0 1297 42.03% 14.14%
20 2005-06-29 11.62 @ IA Akranes 2 1320 45.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1316 40.11% 14.13%
21 2005-09-11 11.42 IA Akranes 2 1361 46.54% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1320 39.34% 14.13%
22 2005-07-24 11.22 Keflavik IF 3 1315 40.36% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1317 45.50% 14.14%
23 2005-08-28 11.18 @ Grindavik 3 1247 40.57% Fram Reykjavik 1 1279 45.29% 14.14%
24 2005-08-21 11.08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1308 47.91% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1289 37.97% 14.12%
25 2005-06-26 10.20 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1457 53.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1364 32.37% 14.02%