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2005 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

48 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

13.51 points above expected

48 points · 34.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

7.03 points below expected

17 points · 24.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 16 0 2 48 53 11 +42 34.5 +13.51
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 10 2 6 32 29 16 +13 28.0 +4.04
3 IA Akranes 18 10 2 6 32 24 20 +4 26.1 +5.87
4 Keflavik IF 18 7 6 5 27 28 31 -3 24.6 +2.36
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 2 8 26 28 28 0 26.7 -0.70
6 KR Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 22 24 -2 24.4 +0.60
7 Grindavik 18 5 3 10 18 23 41 -18 21.0 -2.98
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 2 11 17 18 30 -12 24.0 -7.03
9 Fram Reykjavik 18 5 2 11 17 19 32 -13 22.5 -5.47
10 Throttur Reykjavik 18 4 4 10 16 21 32 -11 22.5 -6.53

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1507 48 34.49 +13.51 99.6% 13 25 31 35 38 43 52
IA Akranes 1375 32 26.13 +5.87 86.7% 5 17 22 26 30 36 46
Valur Reykjavik 1370 32 27.96 +4.04 78.1% 7 18 24 28 32 37 48
Fylkir Reykjavik 1345 26 26.70 -0.70 49.0% 7 17 23 27 31 36 49
KR Reykjavik 1331 25 24.40 +0.60 57.3% 4 15 20 24 28 34 46
Keflavik IF 1328 27 24.64 +2.36 69.2% 6 15 21 25 28 34 44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1302 17 24.03 -7.03 13.1% 4 15 20 24 28 34 44
Throttur Reykjavik 1289 16 22.53 -6.53 14.1% 1 13 19 22 26 32 44
Grindavik 1264 18 20.98 -2.98 34.0% 3 12 17 21 25 31 41
Fram Reykjavik 1262 17 22.47 -5.47 19.5% 4 13 19 22 26 32 42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR GRI IA IV KR KI TR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
3.82
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
3.90
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.50
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.48
 —
0-1-1
2.48
0-0-2
3.14
1-1-0
2.49
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
2.58
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.30
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.85
1-1-0
3.17
 —
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.80
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.14
0-1-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.20
0-0-2
2.75
Grindavik
0-0-2
1.72
2-0-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.13
 —
0-0-2
2.31
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.34
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.37
IA Akranes
1-0-1
1.77
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.34
 —
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-2
2.82
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
3.01
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
3.10
0-0-2
2.62
 —
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.87
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
2.26
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.88
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
2.89
 —
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.41
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.11
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.78
2-0-0
2.74
 —
0-2-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.42
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
2.45
1-1-0
2.99
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
2.63
0-2-0
2.57
 —
1-0-1
2.17
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.28
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.24
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
3.49
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%8.33%6.67%5.00%1.11%0.56%26.11%
18.33%4.44%10.00%5.00%—2.78%30.56%
26.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%—0.56%23.89%
35.00%5.00%3.33%1.11%——14.44%
41.11%—————1.11%
5+0.56%2.78%0.56%———3.89%
Total26.11%30.56%23.89%14.44%1.11%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.47
Mean allowed1.47
StdDev scored1.33
StdDev allowed1.33
Mean total goals/game2.94
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.225
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
222.22%—————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+5.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.94
Mean allowed0.61
StdDev scored1.95
StdDev allowed0.78
Mean total goals/game3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.101
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.00
StdDev allowed1.48
Mean total goals/game2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.310
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.56
StdDev scored0.98
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.211
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%—11.11%50.00%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%5.56%27.78%—16.67%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed2.28
StdDev scored0.89
StdDev allowed2.11
Mean total goals/game3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.324
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%—16.67%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%————27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%38.89%5.56%——100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.08
StdDev allowed1.02
Mean total goals/game2.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.088
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.33
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.373
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%—16.67%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%33.33%16.67%——100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.17
StdDev allowed1.14
Mean total goals/game2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.281
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%—5.56%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.56
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed1.18
Mean total goals/game3.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.081
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.17
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed1.31
Mean total goals/game2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.024
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%22.22%———100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed0.89
StdDev scored1.42
StdDev allowed0.76
Mean total goals/game2.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.316
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 48 34.5 +13.51
2 IA Akranes 32 26.1 +5.87
3 Valur Reykjavik 32 28.0 +4.04
4 Keflavik IF 27 24.6 +2.36
5 KR Reykjavik 25 24.4 +0.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 24.0 -7.03
2 Throttur Reykjavik 16 22.5 -6.53
3 Fram Reykjavik 17 22.5 -5.47
4 Grindavik 18 21.0 -2.98
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 26 26.7 -0.70

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 4,734
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 82
3 IA Akranes 4 Aug 21 – Sep 17 1 in 49
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 37
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 14 – Sep 11 1 in 30

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 17 1 in 74
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 63
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 44
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 28 – Sep 11 1 in 23
5 KR Reykjavik 3 May 26 – Jun 12 1 in 11

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 May 16 – Aug 21 1 in 99
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 12 1 in 14
3 Grindavik 4 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 12
4 IA Akranes 5 Jun 29 – Aug 7 1 in 12
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 25 – Aug 14 1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 31 – Jul 17 1 in 53
2 Valur Reykjavik 5 Aug 15 – Sep 17 1 in 27
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jul 17 – Aug 14 1 in 13
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 16 – May 30 1 in 10
5 Throttur Reykjavik 5 May 16 – Jun 11 1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur56.21%19.20%10.02%5.95%3.48%2.29%1.38%0.81%0.46%0.20%
Valur Reykjavik12.35%18.72%15.42%13.08%10.81%8.94%7.68%5.71%4.37%2.92%
IA Akranes6.84%12.65%14.05%13.10%12.34%10.78%9.65%8.33%6.91%5.35%
Keflavik IF4.15%8.49%10.87%11.29%11.76%12.13%11.78%11.39%9.86%8.28%
Fylkir Reykjavik8.34%13.73%14.25%12.98%11.29%10.66%9.63%8.38%6.42%4.32%
KR Reykjavik3.76%8.29%9.97%11.53%11.98%12.18%11.40%11.23%10.12%9.54%
Grindavik1.08%2.90%4.03%5.88%7.70%9.21%11.60%14.18%18.33%25.09%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar3.47%6.88%8.59%9.99%11.54%11.44%12.62%12.10%12.30%11.07%
Fram Reykjavik1.77%4.47%6.40%7.70%9.88%11.29%12.63%13.52%15.31%17.03%
Throttur Reykjavik2.03%4.67%6.40%8.50%9.22%11.08%11.63%14.35%15.92%16.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.3% 0.7%
Valur Reykjavik 92.7% 7.3%
Fylkir Reykjavik 89.3% 10.7%
IA Akranes 87.7% 12.3%
Keflavik IF 81.9% 18.1%
KR Reykjavik 80.3% 19.7%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 76.6% 23.4%
Throttur Reykjavik 67.9% 32.1%
Fram Reykjavik 67.7% 32.3%
Grindavik 56.6% 43.4%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2005-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1308 1369 34.8% 17.6% 47.6% +19.1 3
2005-05-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1369 1308 47.6% 17.6% 34.8% -19.1 0
2005-05-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1355 1326 47.5% 17.6% 34.9% +5.4 3
2005-05-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1326 1355 34.9% 17.6% 47.5% -5.4 0
2005-05-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1334 1382 36.6% 17.7% 45.6% -15.4 0
2005-05-16 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1382 1334 45.6% 17.7% 36.6% +15.4 3
2005-05-16 Grindavik W 3-1 1315 1305 44.7% 17.7% 37.5% +9.3 3
2005-05-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1305 1315 37.5% 17.7% 44.7% -9.3 0
2005-05-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1346 1332 45.3% 17.7% 36.9% -6.3 0
2005-05-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1332 1346 36.9% 17.7% 45.3% +6.3 3
2005-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1296 1397 29.8% 17.3% 53.0% -13.9 0
2005-05-22 @ Grindavik W 5-1 1397 1296 53.0% 17.3% 29.8% +13.9 6
2005-05-22 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1350 1319 47.6% 17.6% 34.7% -6.2 0
2005-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1319 1350 34.7% 17.6% 47.6% +6.2 3
2005-05-22 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1338 1327 44.9% 17.7% 37.4% +5.7 6
2005-05-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1327 1338 37.4% 17.7% 44.9% -5.7 3
2005-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1320 1340 40.6% 17.8% 41.7% -5.8 0
2005-05-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1340 1320 41.7% 17.8% 40.6% +5.8 3
2005-05-23 IA Akranes W 2-0 1324 1361 38.1% 17.8% 44.1% +12.3 6
2005-05-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1361 1324 44.1% 17.8% 38.1% -12.3 3
2005-05-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1411 1343 52.6% 17.3% 30.1% +12.9 9
2005-05-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1343 1411 30.1% 17.3% 52.6% -12.9 0
2005-05-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1345 1336 44.6% 17.7% 37.7% -6.2 3
2005-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1336 1345 37.7% 17.7% 44.6% +6.2 9
2005-05-26 Grindavik W 3-2 1348 1282 52.5% 17.3% 30.2% +4.2 6
2005-05-26 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1282 1348 30.2% 17.3% 52.5% -4.2 0
2005-05-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1325 1344 40.7% 17.8% 41.5% +5.9 6
2005-05-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1344 1325 41.5% 17.8% 40.7% -5.9 6
2005-05-27 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1321 1315 44.2% 17.8% 38.0% +15.8 6
2005-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1315 1321 38.0% 17.8% 44.2% -15.8 0
2005-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1338 1424 31.6% 17.4% 50.9% -4.9 6
2005-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1424 1338 50.9% 17.4% 31.6% +4.9 12
2005-05-30 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1277 1330 35.9% 17.7% 46.5% +6.4 3
2005-05-30 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1330 1277 46.5% 17.7% 35.9% -6.5 0
2005-05-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1352 1339 45.2% 17.7% 37.1% -18.3 6
2005-05-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1339 1352 37.1% 17.7% 45.2% +18.3 6
2005-05-31 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1299 1331 38.7% 17.8% 43.5% +0.1 1
2005-05-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1331 1299 43.5% 17.8% 38.7% -0.1 7
2005-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1343 1337 44.1% 17.8% 38.1% +15.9 12
2005-05-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1337 1343 38.1% 17.8% 44.1% -15.9 6
2005-06-11 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1429 1299 60.3% 16.4% 23.3% +6.1 15
2005-06-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1299 1429 23.3% 16.4% 60.3% -6.1 1
2005-06-11 IA Akranes D 0-0 1321 1334 41.4% 17.8% 40.8% -0.0 7
2005-06-11 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1334 1321 40.8% 17.8% 41.4% +0.0 7
2005-06-12 Grindavik W 2-1 1357 1284 53.4% 17.2% 29.4% +4.4 9
2005-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1284 1357 29.4% 17.2% 53.4% -4.4 3
2005-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1324 1333 42.1% 17.8% 40.2% +5.7 3
2005-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1333 1324 40.2% 17.8% 42.1% -5.7 6
2005-06-12 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1331 1359 39.4% 17.8% 42.8% -17.8 7
2005-06-12 @ Keflavik IF W 5-1 1359 1331 42.8% 17.8% 39.4% +17.8 15
2005-06-15 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1334 1313 46.3% 17.7% 36.0% -6.4 7
2005-06-15 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1313 1334 36.0% 17.7% 46.3% +6.4 10
2005-06-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1376 1435 35.1% 17.7% 47.2% -5.4 15
2005-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1435 1376 47.2% 17.7% 35.1% +5.4 18
2005-06-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1362 1321 49.0% 17.6% 33.4% -0.5 10
2005-06-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1321 1362 33.4% 17.6% 49.0% +0.5 8
2005-06-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1279 1327 36.6% 17.7% 45.7% +0.3 4
2005-06-16 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1327 1279 45.7% 17.7% 36.6% -0.3 7
2005-06-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-0 1293 1330 38.1% 17.8% 44.2% +23.5 4
2005-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1330 1293 44.2% 17.8% 38.1% -23.5 3
2005-06-23 IA Akranes W 2-0 1440 1328 58.3% 16.7% 25.1% +7.5 21
2005-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1328 1440 25.1% 16.7% 58.3% -7.5 7
2005-06-23 Grindavik L 0-1 1322 1280 49.1% 17.6% 33.3% -7.2 8
2005-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1280 1322 33.3% 17.6% 49.1% +7.2 7
2005-06-23 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1306 1371 34.3% 17.6% 48.0% +7.0 6
2005-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1371 1306 48.0% 17.6% 34.3% -7.0 15
2005-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1320 1361 37.4% 17.7% 44.8% +0.2 11
2005-06-23 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1361 1320 44.8% 17.7% 37.4% -0.2 11
2005-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1327 1316 44.8% 17.7% 37.4% +5.1 10
2005-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1316 1327 37.4% 17.7% 44.8% -5.1 4
2005-06-26 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1314 1320 42.5% 17.8% 39.7% -5.7 8
2005-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1320 1314 39.7% 17.8% 42.5% +5.7 14
2005-06-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-5 1361 1448 31.5% 17.4% 51.0% -9.8 11
2005-06-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-2 1448 1361 51.0% 17.4% 31.5% +9.9 24
2005-06-26 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1287 1311 39.9% 17.8% 42.4% +0.1 8
2005-06-26 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1311 1287 42.4% 17.8% 39.9% -0.1 5
2005-06-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1364 1332 47.8% 17.6% 34.6% +14.6 18
2005-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1332 1364 34.6% 17.6% 47.8% -14.6 10
2005-06-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1320 1313 44.3% 17.8% 38.0% +10.9 10
2005-06-29 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1313 1320 38.0% 17.8% 44.3% -10.9 6
2005-06-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1458 1309 62.5% 16.0% 21.5% +5.6 27
2005-06-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1309 1458 21.5% 16.0% 62.5% -5.6 8
2005-06-30 Grindavik D 1-1 1326 1287 48.7% 17.6% 33.7% -0.5 15
2005-06-30 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1287 1326 33.7% 17.6% 48.7% +0.5 9
2005-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1311 1378 34.0% 17.6% 48.4% -9.9 5
2005-06-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1378 1311 48.4% 17.6% 34.0% +9.9 21
2005-07-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1302 1351 36.4% 17.7% 45.9% -15.3 6
2005-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1351 1302 45.9% 17.7% 36.4% +15.3 14
2005-07-07 IA Akranes L 0-2 1317 1331 41.3% 17.8% 40.9% -11.7 10
2005-07-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1331 1317 40.9% 17.8% 41.3% +11.7 13
2005-07-08 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1463 1325 61.3% 16.2% 22.5% +6.8 30
2005-07-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1325 1463 22.5% 16.2% 61.3% -6.8 15
2005-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1287 1303 41.0% 17.8% 41.2% +11.6 9
2005-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1303 1287 41.2% 17.8% 41.0% -11.7 8
2005-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1306 1367 34.8% 17.6% 47.5% -8.8 10
2005-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1367 1306 47.5% 17.6% 34.8% +8.8 17
2005-07-12 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1288 1388 29.8% 17.3% 52.9% -4.7 9
2005-07-12 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1388 1288 52.9% 17.3% 29.8% +4.7 24
2005-07-12 IA Akranes D 0-0 1301 1343 37.4% 17.7% 44.9% +0.3 6
2005-07-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1343 1301 44.9% 17.7% 37.4% -0.3 14
2005-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1291 1297 42.5% 17.8% 39.7% -22.7 8
2005-07-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1297 1291 39.7% 17.8% 42.5% +22.7 13
2005-07-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1375 1301 53.4% 17.2% 29.3% -7.7 17
2005-07-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1301 1375 29.3% 17.2% 53.4% +7.7 9
2005-07-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1318 1299 46.1% 17.7% 36.2% -0.2 16
2005-07-18 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1299 1318 36.2% 17.7% 46.1% +0.2 10
2005-07-24 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1299 1470 22.3% 16.2% 61.5% -3.6 10
2005-07-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1470 1299 61.5% 16.2% 22.3% +3.6 33
2005-07-24 Keflavik IF L 1-3 1320 1318 43.5% 17.8% 38.7% -10.6 13
2005-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1318 1320 38.7% 17.8% 43.5% +10.6 19
2005-07-25 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1309 1269 49.0% 17.6% 33.5% -7.1 9
2005-07-25 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1269 1309 33.5% 17.6% 49.0% +7.2 11
2005-07-26 IA Akranes L 1-3 1283 1342 35.0% 17.6% 47.4% -8.8 9
2005-07-26 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1342 1283 47.4% 17.6% 35.0% +8.8 17
2005-07-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1393 1368 46.9% 17.7% 35.4% +8.9 27
2005-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1368 1393 35.4% 17.7% 46.9% -8.9 17
2005-08-07 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1474 1309 64.2% 15.7% 20.1% +6.1 36
2005-08-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1309 1474 20.1% 15.7% 64.2% -6.1 13
2005-08-07 IA Akranes L 2-3 1359 1351 44.4% 17.8% 37.9% -5.9 17
2005-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1351 1359 37.9% 17.8% 44.4% +5.9 20
2005-08-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 3-3 1329 1302 47.1% 17.7% 35.3% -0.2 20
2005-08-07 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1302 1329 35.3% 17.7% 47.1% +0.2 10
2005-08-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1276 1402 26.9% 17.0% 56.1% +7.6 14
2005-08-08 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1402 1276 56.1% 17.0% 26.9% -7.6 27
2005-08-10 Grindavik W 8-0 1480 1274 68.5% 14.7% 16.9% +18.6 39
2005-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-8 1274 1480 16.9% 14.7% 68.5% -18.6 9
2005-08-11 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1357 1394 38.0% 17.8% 44.2% -5.5 20
2005-08-11 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1394 1357 44.2% 17.8% 38.0% +5.5 30
2005-08-14 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1255 1353 30.2% 17.3% 52.4% +20.8 12
2005-08-14 @ Grindavik L 0-3 1353 1255 52.4% 17.3% 30.2% -20.8 17
2005-08-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1352 1283 52.7% 17.3% 30.0% -7.2 20
2005-08-14 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1283 1352 30.0% 17.3% 52.7% +7.2 17
2005-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1303 1295 44.4% 17.8% 37.9% +5.8 16
2005-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1295 1303 37.9% 17.8% 44.4% -5.8 10
2005-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1302 1498 20.1% 15.6% 64.3% -9.6 10
2005-08-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1498 1302 64.3% 15.6% 20.1% +9.6 42
2005-08-15 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1400 1328 53.1% 17.3% 29.6% -0.9 31
2005-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1328 1400 29.6% 17.3% 53.1% +0.9 21
2005-08-18 Grindavik W 5-1 1290 1276 45.2% 17.7% 37.0% +16.9 13
2005-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-5 1276 1290 37.0% 17.7% 45.2% -16.9 12
2005-08-21 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1508 1399 57.8% 16.7% 25.4% +7.6 45
2005-08-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1399 1508 25.4% 16.7% 57.8% -7.6 31
2005-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1307 1293 45.3% 17.7% 37.0% +10.7 16
2005-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1293 1307 37.0% 17.7% 45.3% -10.7 10
2005-08-21 IA Akranes L 0-1 1329 1345 41.1% 17.8% 41.1% -6.2 21
2005-08-21 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1345 1329 41.1% 17.8% 41.1% +6.2 23
2005-08-21 Grindavik W 3-1 1309 1259 50.2% 17.5% 32.3% +8.2 19
2005-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1259 1309 32.3% 17.5% 50.2% -8.2 12
2005-08-22 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1291 1332 37.5% 17.7% 44.8% -5.4 17
2005-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1332 1291 44.8% 17.7% 37.5% +5.4 20
2005-08-28 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1251 1285 38.5% 17.8% 43.8% +10.6 15
2005-08-28 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1285 1251 43.8% 17.8% 38.5% -10.6 17
2005-08-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1351 1516 22.9% 16.3% 60.8% +8.2 26
2005-08-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1516 1351 60.8% 16.3% 22.9% -8.2 45
2005-08-28 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1282 1317 38.3% 17.8% 43.9% -5.8 10
2005-08-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1317 1282 43.9% 17.8% 38.3% +5.8 22
2005-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1391 1317 53.4% 17.2% 29.3% -0.8 32
2005-08-29 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1317 1391 29.3% 17.2% 53.4% +0.8 17
2005-08-30 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1337 1323 45.4% 17.7% 36.9% -6.7 20
2005-08-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1323 1337 36.9% 17.7% 45.4% +6.7 24
2005-09-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1507 1331 65.5% 15.4% 19.1% -8.8 45
2005-09-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1331 1507 19.1% 15.4% 65.5% +8.8 23
2005-09-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1318 1359 37.5% 17.7% 44.7% -10.8 17
2005-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1359 1318 44.7% 17.7% 37.5% +10.8 29
2005-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1330 1275 50.9% 17.4% 31.6% +4.7 27
2005-09-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1275 1330 31.6% 17.4% 50.9% -4.7 17
2005-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1323 1391 33.9% 17.6% 48.5% +13.4 25
2005-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1391 1323 48.5% 17.6% 33.9% -13.4 32
2005-09-11 Grindavik W 3-2 1276 1262 45.3% 17.7% 36.9% +5.1 13
2005-09-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1262 1276 36.9% 17.7% 45.3% -5.0 15
2005-09-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1270 1499 17.4% 14.9% 67.7% -8.3 17
2005-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-1 1499 1270 67.7% 14.9% 17.4% +8.3 48
2005-09-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1339 1307 47.8% 17.6% 34.5% +5.3 26
2005-09-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1307 1339 34.5% 17.6% 47.8% -5.3 17
2005-09-17 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1257 1334 32.7% 17.5% 49.8% +6.8 18
2005-09-17 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1334 1257 49.8% 17.5% 32.7% -6.9 27
2005-09-17 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1370 1336 48.0% 17.6% 34.4% +5.0 32
2005-09-17 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1336 1370 34.4% 17.6% 48.0% -5.0 25
2005-09-17 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1377 1281 56.2% 16.9% 26.8% -7.6 32
2005-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1281 1377 26.8% 16.9% 56.2% +7.6 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-09-11 19.11% Fylkir Reykjavik 1331 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1507 1
2 2005-08-28 22.92% @ IA Akranes 1351 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1516 1
3 2005-09-17 26.84% Throttur Reykjavik 1281 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1377 1
4 2005-08-08 26.92% @ Fram Reykjavik 1276 2 Valur Reykjavik 1402 1
5 2005-07-17 29.34% Throttur Reykjavik 1301 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1375 0
6 2005-08-14 30.01% Fram Reykjavik 1283 2 @ IA Akranes 1352 1
7 2005-08-14 30.23% @ Grindavik 1255 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1353 0
8 2005-09-17 32.66% @ Grindavik 1257 2 Keflavik IF 1334 1
9 2005-06-23 33.30% Grindavik 1280 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1322 0
10 2005-07-25 33.46% Fram Reykjavik 1269 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1309 0
11 2005-09-11 33.92% @ KR Reykjavik 1323 2 Valur Reykjavik 1391 0
12 2005-06-23 34.34% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1306 1 Valur Reykjavik 1371 0
13 2005-05-22 34.73% Keflavik IF 1319 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1350 2
14 2005-05-16 34.79% @ Fram Reykjavik 1308 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1369 0
15 2005-05-30 35.86% @ Grindavik 1277 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1330 1
16 2005-06-15 36.04% Keflavik IF 1313 2 @ IA Akranes 1334 1
17 2005-08-30 36.93% Keflavik IF 1323 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1337 0
18 2005-05-17 36.94% KR Reykjavik 1332 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1346 1
19 2005-05-30 37.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 1339 3 @ IA Akranes 1352 0
20 2005-05-26 37.67% Valur Reykjavik 1336 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1345 1
21 2005-08-07 37.88% IA Akranes 1351 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1359 2
22 2005-06-16 38.06% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1293 4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1330 0
23 2005-05-23 38.15% @ Valur Reykjavik 1324 2 IA Akranes 1361 0
24 2005-08-28 38.47% @ Grindavik 1251 3 Fram Reykjavik 1285 1
25 2005-07-24 38.69% Keflavik IF 1318 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1320 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-06-16 23.46 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1293 38.06% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1330 44.19%
2 2005-07-17 22.72 KR Reykjavik 4 1297 39.69% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1291 42.54%
3 2005-08-14 20.82 @ Grindavik 3 1255 30.23% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1353 52.45%
4 2005-05-16 19.12 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1308 34.79% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1369 47.57%
5 2005-08-10 18.59 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 8 1480 68.48% Grindavik 0 1274 16.86%
6 2005-05-30 18.30 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1339 37.07% @ IA Akranes 0 1352 45.20%
7 2005-06-12 17.76 Valur Reykjavik 5 1359 42.84% @ Keflavik IF 1 1331 39.38%
8 2005-08-18 16.88 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 5 1290 45.22% Grindavik 1 1276 37.05%
9 2005-05-31 15.87 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1343 44.14% Fram Reykjavik 0 1337 38.10%
10 2005-05-27 15.84 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1321 44.24% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1315 38.01%
11 2005-05-16 15.37 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1382 45.63% @ Keflavik IF 0 1334 36.65%
12 2005-07-02 15.29 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1351 45.85% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1302 36.44%
13 2005-06-27 14.62 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1364 47.80% KR Reykjavik 0 1332 34.57%
14 2005-05-22 13.94 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1397 52.98% @ Grindavik 1 1296 29.75%
15 2005-09-11 13.38 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1323 33.92% Valur Reykjavik 0 1391 48.48%
16 2005-05-26 12.94 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1411 52.58% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1343 30.11%
17 2005-05-23 12.34 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1324 38.15% IA Akranes 0 1361 44.10%
18 2005-07-07 11.70 IA Akranes 2 1331 40.86% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1317 41.35%
19 2005-07-10 11.65 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1287 41.05% Fram Reykjavik 0 1303 41.16%
20 2005-06-29 10.90 @ IA Akranes 2 1320 44.29% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1313 37.96%
21 2005-09-11 10.79 IA Akranes 2 1359 44.73% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1318 37.53%
22 2005-08-21 10.66 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1307 45.30% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1293 36.97%
23 2005-08-28 10.61 @ Grindavik 3 1251 38.47% Fram Reykjavik 1 1285 43.77%
24 2005-07-24 10.58 Keflavik IF 3 1318 38.69% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1320 43.54%
25 2005-06-30 9.91 Valur Reykjavik 2 1378 48.44% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1311 33.96%