2006 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

6.30 points above expected

30 points · 23.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fylkir Reykjavik

5.23 points below expected

21 points · 26.23 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 10 6 2 36 31 14 +17 35.7 +0.29
2 KR Reykjavik 18 9 3 6 30 23 27 -4 23.7 +6.30
3 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 8 3 29 27 18 +9 27.5 +1.46
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 6 6 24 30 20 +10 25.9 -1.89
5 Breidablik 18 6 5 7 23 27 33 -6 20.6 +2.40
6 IA Akranes 18 6 4 8 22 27 30 -3 25.4 -3.44
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 21 18 +3 18.4 +2.56
8 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 22 25 -3 26.2 -5.23
9 Grindavik 18 4 7 7 19 24 26 -2 22.6 -3.61
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 3 10 18 18 39 -21 21.8 -3.81

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1480 36 35.71 +0.29 55.3% 15 27 32 36 39 44 52
Valur Reykjavik 1388 29 27.54 +1.46 64.3% 6 19 24 28 31 36 46
Keflavik IF 1353 24 25.89 -1.89 40.2% 9 17 22 26 29 35 46
IA Akranes 1337 22 25.44 -3.44 29.3% 7 17 22 25 29 34 43
KR Reykjavik 1326 30 23.70 +6.30 89.8% 7 15 20 24 27 32 44
Fylkir Reykjavik 1324 21 26.23 -5.23 18.7% 9 18 23 26 30 35 45
Grindavik 1288 19 22.61 -3.61 27.9% 6 14 19 23 26 31 40
Breidablik 1265 23 20.60 +2.40 71.7% 4 12 17 21 24 29 40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1254 18 21.81 -3.81 26.6% 2 13 18 22 25 31 41
Vikingur Reykjavik 1253 21 18.44 +2.56 73.0% 1 10 15 18 22 27 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV KR KI VR VR
Breidablik
0-2-0
1.36
1-1-0
2.17
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
2.23
2-0-0
2.48
0-0-2
2.46
1-0-1
2.16
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
3.12
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-2-0
4.30
1-1-0
3.72
1-1-0
4.07
2-0-0
3.74
1-1-0
4.26
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
3.70
1-0-1
3.59
1-1-0
4.44
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.32
0-1-1
1.85
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
3.25
0-0-2
3.04
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.57
2-0-0
3.58
Grindavik
2-0-0
2.90
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.23
0-2-0
3.10
IA Akranes
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
3.44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.99
0-1-1
1.39
1-1-0
2.22
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.34
0-0-2
3.10
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.79
2-0-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
3.05
0-1-1
2.49
0-2-0
2.30
2-0-0
3.19
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
1.85
0-1-1
2.78
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
2.86
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.95
0-2-0
2.51
1-1-0
3.57
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.44
1-0-1
1.96
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
3.28
1-1-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.18
0-2-0
3.19
0-2-0
2.97
0-1-1
3.73
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.94
0-2-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.09
2-0-0
2.42
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
1.97
1-1-0
1.82

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.22%4.44%2.22%0.56%2.22%22.22%
17.22%18.89%10.56%1.67%1.67%40.00%
24.44%10.56%4.44%2.78%1.11%0.56%23.89%
32.22%1.67%2.78%1.11%7.78%
40.56%1.67%1.11%3.33%
5+2.22%0.56%2.78%
Total22.22%40.00%23.89%7.78%3.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored1.19
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.049
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%44.44%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
35.56%5.56%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.83
StdDev scored0.99
StdDev allowed1.42
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.063
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%
15.56%22.22%11.11%38.89%
216.67%16.67%5.56%38.89%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total38.89%44.44%16.67%100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.72
Mean allowed0.78
StdDev scored0.96
StdDev allowed0.73
Mean total goals/game2.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.261
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%
111.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%50.00%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%16.67%100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.22
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored0.81
StdDev allowed0.98
Mean total goals/game2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.256
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
127.78%22.22%50.00%
2
311.11%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%50.00%5.56%100%

Grindavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.44
StdDev scored1.46
StdDev allowed0.86
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.079
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%
111.11%11.11%22.22%5.56%50.00%
211.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
45.56%5.56%
5+
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%5.56%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.04
StdDev allowed1.03
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.329
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
111.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%
211.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
3
4
5+
Total16.67%38.89%5.56%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed2.17
StdDev scored0.91
StdDev allowed1.92
Mean total goals/game3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.135
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
122.22%5.56%27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+
Total33.33%16.67%27.78%16.67%5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.02
StdDev allowed1.42
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.385
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%
122.22%22.22%44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%
4
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%
Total22.22%44.44%33.33%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.67
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.61
StdDev allowed0.76
Mean total goals/game2.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.064
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%
15.56%27.78%5.56%5.56%44.44%
216.67%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%
4
5+5.56%5.56%
Total27.78%50.00%16.67%5.56%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.00
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed0.84
Mean total goals/game2.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.224
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%50.00%
15.56%16.67%5.56%27.78%
2
35.56%5.56%
411.11%11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%
Total27.78%55.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.17
Mean allowed1.00
StdDev scored1.65
StdDev allowed0.97
Mean total goals/game2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.183
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 30 23.7 +6.30
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 21 18.4 +2.56
3 Breidablik 23 20.6 +2.40
4 Valur Reykjavik 29 27.5 +1.46
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 35.7 +0.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 21 26.2 -5.23
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 21.8 -3.81
3 Grindavik 19 22.6 -3.61
4 IA Akranes 22 25.4 -3.44
5 Keflavik IF 24 25.9 -1.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 May 25 – Jun 5 1 in 50
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 20 – Sep 16 1 in 45
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 41
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 25 – May 29 1 in 7
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 144
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 13 – Aug 10 1 in 28
3 Breidablik 3 May 25 – Jun 6 1 in 19
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 5 – Jun 12 1 in 12
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 15 – May 21 1 in 8

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 13 Jun 8 – Sep 23 1 in 215
2 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 31 – Sep 23 1 in 43
3 Breidablik 4 Aug 27 – Sep 23 1 in 29
4 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 21 – Aug 20 1 in 18
5 IA Akranes 6 Aug 10 – Sep 23 1 in 13

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 8 Jul 18 – Sep 23 1 in 71
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Aug 10 – Sep 10 1 in 62
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 15 – Jul 9 1 in 13
4 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 10
5 Grindavik 5 Aug 20 – Sep 23 1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur69.28%16.63%6.91%3.40%1.87%0.98%0.57%0.24%0.07%0.05%
KR Reykjavik2.29%7.74%10.17%11.43%12.07%13.09%12.53%11.84%10.75%8.09%
Valur Reykjavik9.46%20.81%18.24%14.17%10.95%9.38%6.85%4.82%3.54%1.78%
Keflavik IF5.34%14.74%15.41%14.71%13.28%11.16%9.69%7.61%5.09%2.97%
Breidablik0.67%2.51%4.50%6.46%8.78%9.98%13.06%15.31%18.32%20.41%
IA Akranes4.24%11.68%13.54%14.30%13.21%12.24%11.05%8.68%6.90%4.16%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.32%1.33%2.56%3.95%5.69%7.93%10.42%14.58%20.57%32.65%
Fylkir Reykjavik5.83%14.71%14.91%14.38%13.61%10.84%9.58%7.38%5.55%3.21%
Grindavik1.52%5.86%7.75%9.72%11.49%12.71%12.96%13.92%13.01%11.06%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.05%3.99%6.01%7.48%9.05%11.69%13.29%15.62%16.20%15.62%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.9% 0.1%
Valur Reykjavik 94.7% 5.3%
Keflavik IF 91.9% 8.1%
Fylkir Reykjavik 91.2% 8.8%
IA Akranes 88.9% 11.1%
KR Reykjavik 81.2% 18.8%
Grindavik 75.9% 24.1%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 68.2% 31.8%
Breidablik 61.3% 38.7%
Vikingur Reykjavik 46.8% 53.2%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2006-05-14 IA Akranes W 3-2 1290 1361 38.9% 29.8% 31.2% +4.5 3
2006-05-14 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1361 1290 31.2% 29.8% 38.9% -4.5 0
2006-05-14 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1315 1332 47.1% 27.6% 25.3% +3.9 3
2006-05-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1332 1315 25.3% 27.6% 47.1% -3.9 0
2006-05-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1334 1448 32.9% 30.0% 37.1% -14.3 0
2006-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1448 1334 37.1% 30.0% 32.9% +14.3 3
2006-05-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1213 1343 30.8% 29.8% 39.5% -9.4 0
2006-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1343 1213 39.5% 29.8% 30.8% +9.3 3
2006-05-15 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1272 1361 36.5% 30.1% 33.4% +5.0 3
2006-05-15 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1361 1272 33.4% 30.1% 36.5% -5.0 0
2006-05-19 Grindavik W 2-1 1352 1294 58.3% 21.9% 19.8% +3.0 6
2006-05-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1294 1352 19.8% 21.9% 58.3% -3.0 3
2006-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1328 1203 67.9% 15.9% 16.3% +2.2 3
2006-05-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1203 1328 16.3% 15.9% 67.9% -2.2 0
2006-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1277 1319 43.4% 28.9% 27.8% +10.5 6
2006-05-20 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1319 1277 27.8% 28.9% 43.4% -10.5 3
2006-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1357 1320 55.1% 23.7% 21.1% -7.0 0
2006-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1320 1357 21.1% 23.7% 55.1% +7.1 3
2006-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1356 1462 33.9% 30.1% 36.0% -10.0 0
2006-05-21 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1462 1356 36.0% 30.1% 33.9% +10.0 6
2006-05-24 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1291 1330 43.8% 28.7% 27.4% -0.5 4
2006-05-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1330 1291 27.4% 28.7% 43.8% +0.5 4
2006-05-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1327 1355 45.3% 28.3% 26.4% +4.3 6
2006-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1355 1327 26.4% 28.3% 45.3% -4.4 6
2006-05-25 IA Akranes W 2-1 1472 1350 67.6% 16.1% 16.4% +2.2 9
2006-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1350 1472 16.4% 16.1% 67.6% -2.2 0
2006-05-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1309 1346 44.0% 28.7% 27.3% -17.6 3
2006-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1346 1309 27.3% 28.7% 44.0% +17.5 3
2006-05-25 Breidablik W 4-1 1201 1288 36.7% 30.1% 33.2% +12.1 3
2006-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1288 1201 33.2% 30.1% 36.7% -12.1 6
2006-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1351 1474 31.6% 29.9% 38.5% -4.8 6
2006-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1474 1351 38.5% 29.9% 31.6% +4.8 12
2006-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1291 1213 61.2% 20.2% 18.7% -8.0 3
2006-05-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1213 1291 18.7% 20.2% 61.2% +8.0 6
2006-05-28 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1330 1331 49.5% 26.6% 23.9% +10.8 7
2006-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1331 1330 23.9% 26.6% 49.5% -10.8 6
2006-05-29 Grindavik L 2-3 1276 1291 47.4% 27.5% 25.1% -6.0 6
2006-05-29 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1291 1276 25.1% 27.5% 47.4% +6.0 7
2006-05-29 IA Akranes W 2-1 1363 1348 51.9% 25.4% 22.6% +3.5 6
2006-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1348 1363 22.6% 25.4% 51.9% -3.5 0
2006-06-05 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1479 1341 69.8% 14.6% 15.6% +2.1 15
2006-06-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1341 1479 15.6% 14.6% 69.8% -2.1 7
2006-06-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1297 1283 51.6% 25.6% 22.8% -1.0 8
2006-06-05 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1283 1297 22.8% 25.6% 51.6% +1.0 4
2006-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1344 1346 49.3% 26.7% 24.0% -6.9 0
2006-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1346 1344 24.0% 26.7% 49.3% +6.9 9
2006-06-05 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1221 1367 29.0% 29.3% 41.7% +10.1 9
2006-06-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1367 1221 41.7% 29.3% 29.0% -10.1 6
2006-06-06 Breidablik W 3-2 1320 1270 57.1% 22.6% 20.3% +2.9 9
2006-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1270 1320 20.3% 22.6% 57.1% -2.9 6
2006-06-08 IA Akranes L 0-1 1339 1337 49.9% 26.4% 23.7% -7.0 7
2006-06-08 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1337 1339 23.7% 26.4% 49.9% +7.0 3
2006-06-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1357 1353 50.1% 26.3% 23.5% +6.3 9
2006-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1353 1357 23.5% 26.3% 50.1% -6.3 9
2006-06-08 Grindavik D 0-0 1231 1296 40.0% 29.7% 30.3% -0.3 10
2006-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1296 1231 30.3% 29.7% 40.0% +0.3 9
2006-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1267 1481 22.6% 25.4% 52.0% +0.9 7
2006-06-11 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1481 1267 52.0% 25.4% 22.6% -0.9 16
2006-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1284 1323 43.8% 28.8% 27.5% +8.5 7
2006-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1323 1284 27.5% 28.8% 43.8% -8.5 9
2006-06-12 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1347 1332 51.8% 25.5% 22.7% +3.5 12
2006-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1332 1347 22.7% 25.5% 51.8% -3.5 7
2006-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1480 1293 76.2% 10.5% 13.3% +2.9 19
2006-06-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1293 1480 13.3% 10.5% 76.2% -2.9 7
2006-06-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1296 1363 39.6% 29.7% 30.6% -0.3 10
2006-06-15 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1363 1296 30.6% 29.7% 39.6% +0.3 10
2006-06-15 Breidablik W 2-1 1344 1268 61.0% 20.3% 18.8% +2.7 6
2006-06-15 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1268 1344 18.8% 20.3% 61.0% -2.7 7
2006-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1315 1231 62.0% 19.6% 18.4% +2.8 12
2006-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1231 1315 18.4% 19.6% 62.0% -2.8 10
2006-06-21 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1363 1329 54.8% 23.9% 21.3% -1.1 11
2006-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1329 1363 21.3% 23.9% 54.8% +1.2 8
2006-06-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1265 1350 37.0% 30.1% 33.0% +4.7 10
2006-06-22 @ Breidablik L 2-3 1350 1265 33.0% 30.1% 37.0% -4.7 12
2006-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 5-0 1296 1317 46.4% 27.9% 25.8% +18.7 13
2006-06-22 @ Grindavik L 0-5 1317 1296 25.8% 27.9% 46.4% -18.7 12
2006-06-22 IA Akranes W 2-1 1290 1347 41.1% 29.5% 29.5% +4.5 10
2006-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1347 1290 29.5% 29.5% 41.1% -4.5 6
2006-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1228 1483 19.9% 22.1% 58.1% +1.3 11
2006-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1483 1228 58.1% 22.1% 19.9% -1.3 20
2006-06-28 Grindavik W 2-0 1482 1315 73.7% 12.1% 14.2% +3.7 23
2006-06-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1315 1482 14.2% 12.1% 73.7% -3.6 13
2006-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1346 1294 57.2% 22.5% 20.2% -1.1 13
2006-06-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1294 1346 20.2% 22.5% 57.2% +1.1 11
2006-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1342 1229 66.2% 16.9% 16.8% -19.4 6
2006-06-28 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 1229 1342 16.8% 16.9% 66.2% +19.4 14
2006-06-28 Breidablik W 5-0 1330 1270 58.5% 21.8% 19.7% +13.7 11
2006-06-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-5 1270 1330 19.7% 21.8% 58.5% -13.7 10
2006-06-29 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1299 1362 40.1% 29.6% 30.2% -0.3 13
2006-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1362 1299 30.2% 29.6% 40.1% +0.3 12
2006-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1486 1298 76.2% 10.5% 13.3% +3.3 26
2006-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1298 1486 13.3% 10.5% 76.2% -3.3 13
2006-07-07 Grindavik W 2-1 1323 1311 51.4% 25.7% 22.9% +3.5 9
2006-07-07 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1311 1323 22.9% 25.7% 51.4% -3.5 13
2006-07-09 Breidablik D 1-1 1362 1256 65.3% 17.5% 17.2% -1.5 13
2006-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1256 1362 17.2% 17.5% 65.3% +1.5 11
2006-07-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1344 1249 63.7% 18.5% 17.7% +2.7 16
2006-07-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1249 1344 17.7% 18.5% 63.7% -2.7 14
2006-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-2 1343 1295 56.8% 22.8% 20.4% +8.3 14
2006-07-13 @ Keflavik IF L 2-6 1295 1343 20.4% 22.8% 56.8% -8.3 11
2006-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1489 1361 68.4% 15.6% 16.1% -8.1 26
2006-07-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1361 1489 16.1% 15.6% 68.4% +8.1 16
2006-07-17 IA Akranes L 2-3 1295 1326 44.9% 28.4% 26.7% -5.8 13
2006-07-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1326 1295 26.7% 28.4% 44.9% +5.8 12
2006-07-18 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1307 1347 43.7% 28.8% 27.6% -0.5 14
2006-07-18 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1347 1307 27.6% 28.8% 43.7% +0.5 17
2006-07-18 Breidablik L 0-1 1287 1258 54.0% 24.4% 21.6% -7.4 11
2006-07-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1258 1287 21.6% 24.4% 54.0% +7.4 14
2006-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1246 1352 34.0% 30.1% 35.9% +0.0 15
2006-07-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1352 1246 35.9% 30.1% 34.0% -0.1 15
2006-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1265 1246 52.4% 25.2% 22.4% +3.7 17
2006-07-27 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1246 1265 22.4% 25.2% 52.4% -3.7 15
2006-07-30 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1332 1481 28.6% 29.2% 42.2% -4.7 12
2006-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1481 1332 42.2% 29.2% 28.6% +4.7 29
2006-07-31 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1348 1289 58.3% 21.9% 19.8% -7.3 17
2006-07-31 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1289 1348 19.8% 21.9% 58.3% +7.3 16
2006-07-31 Grindavik W 2-0 1352 1307 56.3% 23.1% 20.6% +6.2 18
2006-07-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1307 1352 20.6% 23.1% 56.3% -6.2 14
2006-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1369 1280 62.8% 19.1% 18.1% +12.1 19
2006-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1280 1369 18.1% 19.1% 62.8% -12.1 11
2006-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1297 1358 40.5% 29.6% 30.0% -0.2 17
2006-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1358 1297 30.0% 29.6% 40.5% +0.2 19
2006-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1485 1340 70.7% 14.0% 15.2% -1.3 30
2006-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1340 1485 15.2% 14.0% 70.7% +1.3 18
2006-08-10 Breidablik W 4-2 1301 1269 54.4% 24.2% 21.5% +5.1 17
2006-08-10 @ Grindavik L 2-4 1269 1301 21.5% 24.2% 54.4% -5.1 17
2006-08-10 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1328 1381 41.6% 29.3% 29.1% -0.4 13
2006-08-10 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1381 1328 29.1% 29.3% 41.6% +0.4 20
2006-08-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1243 1268 45.8% 28.1% 26.1% +19.0 18
2006-08-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-5 1268 1243 26.1% 28.1% 45.8% -19.0 11
2006-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1263 1296 44.7% 28.5% 26.9% -6.5 17
2006-08-20 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1296 1263 26.9% 28.5% 44.7% +6.5 20
2006-08-20 IA Akranes D 3-3 1341 1327 51.7% 25.6% 22.7% -0.5 19
2006-08-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1327 1341 22.7% 25.6% 51.7% +0.5 14
2006-08-20 Grindavik W 2-1 1249 1306 41.1% 29.4% 29.5% +4.5 14
2006-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1306 1249 29.5% 29.4% 41.1% -4.5 17
2006-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1358 1484 31.3% 29.8% 38.9% +5.5 22
2006-08-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1484 1358 38.9% 29.8% 31.3% -5.5 30
2006-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1382 1262 67.2% 16.3% 16.5% -1.8 21
2006-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1262 1382 16.5% 16.3% 67.2% +1.8 19
2006-08-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1301 1263 55.2% 23.7% 21.1% -1.1 18
2006-08-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1263 1301 21.1% 23.7% 55.2% +1.0 20
2006-08-24 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1328 1364 44.2% 28.6% 27.1% +4.5 17
2006-08-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1364 1328 27.1% 28.6% 44.2% -4.5 22
2006-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1303 1253 57.0% 22.7% 20.3% +6.1 23
2006-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1253 1303 20.3% 22.7% 57.0% -6.1 14
2006-08-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1479 1257 80.2% 8.1% 11.7% -2.0 31
2006-08-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1257 1479 11.7% 8.1% 80.2% +2.0 18
2006-08-27 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1341 1380 43.8% 28.8% 27.5% -6.4 19
2006-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1380 1341 27.5% 28.8% 43.8% +6.4 24
2006-09-10 IA Akranes D 2-2 1259 1332 38.7% 29.9% 31.4% -0.1 19
2006-09-10 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1332 1259 31.4% 29.9% 38.7% +0.2 18
2006-09-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1247 1477 21.5% 24.2% 54.3% +1.0 15
2006-09-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1477 1247 54.3% 24.2% 21.5% -1.0 32
2006-09-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1359 1335 53.3% 24.8% 22.0% -1.0 23
2006-09-10 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1335 1359 22.0% 24.8% 53.3% +1.0 20
2006-09-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1264 1309 42.9% 29.0% 28.1% -6.3 20
2006-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1309 1264 28.1% 29.0% 42.9% +6.3 26
2006-09-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1386 1300 62.4% 19.4% 18.2% +2.6 27
2006-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1300 1386 18.2% 19.4% 62.4% -2.6 18
2006-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1476 1258 79.8% 8.3% 11.9% +5.4 35
2006-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1258 1476 11.9% 8.3% 79.8% -5.4 20
2006-09-16 Breidablik D 1-1 1336 1259 61.0% 20.3% 18.7% -1.3 21
2006-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1259 1336 18.7% 20.3% 61.0% +1.3 20
2006-09-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1332 1248 62.1% 19.6% 18.3% +4.1 21
2006-09-16 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 1248 1332 18.3% 19.6% 62.1% -4.1 15
2006-09-16 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1358 1389 45.0% 28.4% 26.6% -0.5 24
2006-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1389 1358 26.6% 28.4% 45.0% +0.5 28
2006-09-16 Grindavik W 3-0 1315 1298 52.2% 25.3% 22.5% +10.1 29
2006-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1298 1315 22.5% 25.3% 52.2% -10.1 18
2006-09-23 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1260 1358 35.2% 30.1% 34.7% +5.1 23
2006-09-23 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1358 1260 34.7% 30.1% 35.2% -5.1 24
2006-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1287 1481 24.2% 26.9% 48.9% +0.7 19
2006-09-23 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1481 1287 48.9% 26.9% 24.2% -0.8 36
2006-09-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1244 1334 36.2% 30.1% 33.7% +10.0 18
2006-09-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1334 1244 33.7% 30.1% 36.2% -10.0 21
2006-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1389 1325 59.1% 21.4% 19.5% -0.9 29
2006-09-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1325 1389 19.5% 21.4% 59.1% +0.9 30
2006-09-23 IA Akranes D 1-1 1253 1337 37.1% 30.0% 32.8% -0.1 21
2006-09-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1337 1253 32.8% 30.0% 37.1% +0.1 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-07-16 16.09% Valur Reykjavik 1361 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1489 1
2 2006-06-28 16.83% Vikingur Reykjavik 1229 4 @ IA Akranes 1342 1
3 2006-05-28 18.67% Vikingur Reykjavik 1213 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1291 0
4 2006-07-31 19.80% KR Reykjavik 1289 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1348 1
5 2006-05-20 21.11% KR Reykjavik 1320 2 @ IA Akranes 1357 1
6 2006-07-18 21.63% Breidablik 1258 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1287 0
7 2006-06-08 23.70% IA Akranes 1337 1 @ Keflavik IF 1339 0
8 2006-06-05 24.02% Fylkir Reykjavik 1346 1 @ IA Akranes 1344 0
9 2006-05-29 25.13% Grindavik 1291 3 @ Breidablik 1276 2
10 2006-07-17 26.70% IA Akranes 1326 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1295 2
11 2006-08-20 26.85% KR Reykjavik 1296 1 @ Breidablik 1263 0
12 2006-05-25 27.27% Valur Reykjavik 1346 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1309 0
13 2006-08-27 27.46% Valur Reykjavik 1380 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 0
14 2006-09-10 28.07% KR Reykjavik 1309 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1264 0
15 2006-06-05 28.96% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1221 3 Valur Reykjavik 1367 1
16 2006-08-20 31.29% @ Keflavik IF 1358 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1484 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-06-28 19.42 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1229 16.83% @ IA Akranes 1 1342 66.24%
2 2006-08-10 18.96 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1243 45.84% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1268 26.08%
3 2006-06-22 18.74 @ Grindavik 5 1296 46.35% KR Reykjavik 0 1317 25.75%
4 2006-05-25 17.55 Valur Reykjavik 3 1346 27.27% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1309 44.05%
5 2006-05-14 14.28 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1448 37.08% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1334 32.88%
6 2006-06-28 13.73 @ Keflavik IF 5 1330 58.53% Breidablik 0 1270 19.69%
7 2006-07-31 12.14 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1369 62.84% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1280 18.05%
8 2006-05-25 12.13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1201 36.70% Breidablik 1 1288 33.22%
9 2006-05-28 10.79 @ Keflavik IF 3 1330 49.48% KR Reykjavik 0 1331 23.91%
10 2006-05-20 10.51 @ Breidablik 4 1277 43.35% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1319 27.76%
11 2006-09-16 10.08 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1315 52.24% Grindavik 0 1298 22.48%
12 2006-06-05 10.07 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1221 28.96% Valur Reykjavik 1 1367 41.73%
13 2006-05-21 10.05 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1462 35.97% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1356 33.92%
14 2006-09-23 10.00 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1244 36.22% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1334 33.68%
15 2006-05-14 9.35 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1343 39.47% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1213 30.77%
16 2006-06-12 8.51 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1284 43.76% KR Reykjavik 0 1323 27.48%
17 2006-07-13 8.26 @ Keflavik IF 6 1343 56.75% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1295 20.42%
18 2006-07-16 8.08 Valur Reykjavik 2 1361 16.09% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1489 68.36%
19 2006-05-28 8.00 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1213 18.67% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1291 61.18%
20 2006-07-18 7.38 Breidablik 1 1258 21.63% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1287 54.02%
21 2006-07-31 7.31 KR Reykjavik 2 1289 19.80% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1348 58.27%
22 2006-05-20 7.05 KR Reykjavik 2 1320 21.11% @ IA Akranes 1 1357 55.15%
23 2006-06-08 6.99 IA Akranes 1 1337 23.70% @ Keflavik IF 0 1339 49.86%
24 2006-06-05 6.93 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1346 24.02% @ IA Akranes 0 1344 49.28%
25 2006-08-20 6.47 KR Reykjavik 1 1296 26.85% @ Breidablik 0 1263 44.67%