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2006 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

36 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 2005.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

18 pts

Grindavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

6.11 points above expected

30 points · 23.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fylkir Reykjavik

4.86 points below expected

21 points · 25.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 10 6 2 36 31 14 +17 34.59 +1.41
2 KR Reykjavik 18 9 3 6 30 23 27 -4 23.89 +6.11
3 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 8 3 29 27 18 +9 27.25 +1.75
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 6 6 24 30 20 +10 25.29 -1.29
5 Breidablik 18 6 5 7 23 27 33 -6 20.43 +2.57
6 IA Akranes 18 6 4 8 22 27 30 -3 25.72 -3.72
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 21 18 +3 17.41 +3.59
8 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 22 25 -3 25.86 -4.86
9 Grindavik Relegated 18 4 7 7 19 24 26 -2 22.13 -3.13
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated 18 5 3 10 18 18 39 -21 22.09 -4.09

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1478 36 34.59 +1.41 63.6% 16 26 31 35 38 43 50
Valur Reykjavik 1384 29 27.25 +1.75 67.0% 10 19 24 27 31 36 49
Keflavik IF 1347 24 25.29 -1.29 44.1% 6 17 22 25 29 34 45
IA Akranes 1344 22 25.72 -3.72 26.7% 9 17 22 26 29 34 47
Fylkir Reykjavik 1331 21 25.86 -4.86 20.3% 8 17 22 26 29 34 45
KR Reykjavik 1327 30 23.89 +6.11 89.8% 7 16 20 24 27 32 45
Grindavik 1288 19 22.13 -3.13 30.7% 4 14 19 22 26 30 44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1268 18 22.09 -4.09 24.7% 6 14 19 22 25 31 44
Breidablik 1266 23 20.43 +2.57 72.6% 5 12 17 20 24 29 41
Vikingur Reykjavik 1235 21 17.41 +3.59 80.6% 2 10 14 17 21 26 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
0-2-0
1.39
1-1-0
2.16
0-0-2
2.56
0-1-1
2.16
2-0-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.39
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
2.06
1-0-1
3.17
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-2-0
4.15
 —
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.96
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.48
1-1-0
4.38
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.27
0-1-1
1.85
 —
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
2.71
0-1-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.95
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.63
Grindavik
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
2.36
 —
1-0-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.43
0-1-1
2.19
0-2-0
3.17
IA Akranes
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
1.85
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.08
 —
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.94
2-0-0
2.67
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
3.54
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.98
0-1-1
1.46
1-1-0
2.27
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.28
 —
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
3.21
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.80
2-0-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.96
 —
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
2.32
2-0-0
3.30
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.70
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.85
 —
0-2-0
2.47
1-1-0
3.58
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.39
1-0-1
1.97
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
3.10
0-2-0
2.94
 —
0-1-1
3.76
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
1.21
0-0-2
1.82
0-2-0
2.24
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
2.23
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
1.88
1-1-0
1.71
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.40 +8.7
Allowed 0.38 -4.5
Differential 0.49 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.22%4.44%2.22%0.56%2.22%22.22%
17.22%18.89%10.56%1.67%1.67%—40.00%
24.44%10.56%4.44%2.78%1.11%0.56%23.89%
32.22%1.67%2.78%1.11%——7.78%
40.56%1.67%1.11%———3.33%
5+2.22%—0.56%———2.78%
Total22.22%40.00%23.89%7.78%3.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.78
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.83 -0.33
SD 0.99 1.42 1.78
CV 0.66 0.78 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
216.67%16.67%5.56%———38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.78 +0.94
SD 0.96 0.73 1.35
CV 0.56 0.94 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%——50.00%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.39 -0.17
SD 0.81 0.98 1.10
CV 0.66 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
1—27.78%22.22%———50.00%
2———————
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%50.00%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.44 -0.11
SD 1.46 0.86 1.75
CV 1.09 0.59 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
111.11%11.11%22.22%—5.56%—50.00%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.04 1.03 1.20
CV 0.70 0.62 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—11.11%38.89%
1—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
211.11%16.67%——5.56%5.56%38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%5.56%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.17 -1.17
SD 0.91 1.92 2.23
CV 0.91 0.88 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
122.22%5.56%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%27.78%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 1.02 1.42 2.05
CV 0.80 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—22.22%22.22%———44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%44.44%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.11 +0.56
SD 1.61 0.76 1.82
CV 0.97 0.68 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%27.78%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%50.00%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.25 0.84 1.65
CV 0.83 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—50.00%
15.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
2———————
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%55.56%11.11%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.00 +0.17
SD 1.65 0.97 2.07
CV 1.42 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 30 23.89 +6.11
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 21 17.41 +3.59
3 Breidablik 23 20.43 +2.57
4 Valur Reykjavik 29 27.25 +1.75
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 34.59 +1.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 21 25.86 -4.86
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 22.09 -4.09
3 IA Akranes 22 25.72 -3.72
4 Grindavik 19 22.13 -3.13
5 Keflavik IF 24 25.29 -1.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 May 25 – Jun 5 1 in 70
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 51
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 20 – Sep 16 1 in 45
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 25 – May 29 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 202
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 13 – Aug 10 1 in 41
3 Breidablik 3 May 25 – Jun 6 1 in 22
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 5 – Jun 12 1 in 13
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 15 – May 21 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 13 Jun 8 – Sep 23 1 in 146
2 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 31 – Sep 23 1 in 29
3 Breidablik 4 Aug 27 – Sep 23 1 in 19
4 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 21 – Aug 20 1 in 16
5 Grindavik 6 May 24 – Jun 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 8 Jul 18 – Sep 23 1 in 52
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Aug 10 – Sep 10 1 in 35
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 15 – Jul 9 1 in 11
4 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 9
5 Grindavik 5 Aug 20 – Sep 23 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur65.59%17.72%7.92%3.94%2.32%1.31%0.68%0.30%0.19%0.03%
KR Reykjavik3.28%8.25%11.29%11.83%12.63%12.37%12.66%11.27%9.86%6.56%
Valur Reykjavik10.47%20.13%17.08%14.77%11.13%9.52%6.85%5.19%3.36%1.50%
Keflavik IF5.72%13.27%15.22%13.60%12.88%11.52%10.30%8.15%6.29%3.05%
Breidablik0.77%2.47%4.45%6.04%8.87%10.91%12.97%15.59%18.44%19.49%
IA Akranes5.25%13.64%14.27%14.72%13.45%11.78%9.85%7.87%5.59%3.58%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.11%0.78%1.62%2.85%4.62%6.25%10.04%14.19%21.44%38.10%
Fylkir Reykjavik5.96%14.02%14.68%14.19%13.15%11.21%9.54%8.11%6.08%3.06%
Grindavik1.28%5.28%7.02%9.72%11.00%13.04%13.59%14.44%13.33%11.30%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.57%4.44%6.45%8.34%9.95%12.09%13.52%14.89%15.42%13.33%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
48.89%30.00%21.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
099.11500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.50+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Tight Race
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.08 * Some Luck: 4.08 to 6.12 * Lucky: 6.12 to 8.16 * Wild Swing: 8.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.31 * Off: 2.31 to 3.08 * Way Off: 3.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.03 * A Surprise: 1.03 to 1.64 * Several Surprises: 1.64 to 2.26 * Many Surprises: 2.26 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.57 points
As Expected
05.1013
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.40
Off
01.934
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.81%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
20.34%
Fylkir Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.89
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.49
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.89
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.117
Well Within Noise
00.1660.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.78% 0.22%
Valur Reykjavik 95.14% 4.86%
Fylkir Reykjavik 90.86% 9.14%
IA Akranes 90.83% 9.17%
Keflavik IF 90.66% 9.34%
KR Reykjavik 83.58% 16.42%
Grindavik 75.37% 24.63%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 71.25% 28.75%
Breidablik 62.07% 37.93%
Vikingur Reykjavik 40.46% 59.54%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2006-05-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1334 1454 31.2% 31.7% 37.1% -10.4 0
2006-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1454 1334 37.1% 31.7% 31.2% +10.4 3
2006-05-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1201 1345 28.2% 31.4% 40.5% -6.6 0
2006-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1345 1201 40.5% 31.4% 28.2% +6.6 3
2006-05-14 IA Akranes W 3-2 1288 1364 37.5% 31.7% 30.9% +3.4 3
2006-05-14 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1364 1288 30.9% 31.7% 37.5% -3.4 0
2006-05-14 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1317 1331 46.1% 30.2% 23.8% +2.9 3
2006-05-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1331 1317 23.8% 30.2% 46.1% -2.9 0
2006-05-15 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1271 1364 35.0% 31.8% 33.2% +3.7 3
2006-05-15 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1364 1271 33.2% 31.8% 35.0% -3.7 0
2006-05-19 Grindavik W 2-1 1351 1292 55.6% 26.6% 17.8% +2.2 6
2006-05-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1292 1351 17.8% 26.6% 55.6% -2.2 3
2006-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1328 1194 64.5% 21.9% 13.5% +1.6 3
2006-05-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1194 1328 13.5% 21.9% 64.5% -1.6 0
2006-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-1 1275 1320 41.9% 31.1% 27.0% +7.9 6
2006-05-20 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1320 1275 27.0% 31.1% 41.9% -7.9 3
2006-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1361 1324 52.8% 27.9% 19.4% -5.2 0
2006-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1324 1361 19.4% 27.9% 52.8% +5.2 3
2006-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1360 1464 33.4% 31.8% 34.8% -7.5 0
2006-05-21 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1464 1360 34.8% 31.8% 33.4% +7.5 6
2006-05-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1329 1353 44.6% 30.6% 24.8% +3.2 6
2006-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1353 1329 24.8% 30.6% 44.6% -3.2 6
2006-05-24 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1290 1329 42.5% 31.0% 26.5% -0.3 4
2006-05-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1329 1290 26.5% 31.0% 42.5% +0.4 4
2006-05-25 Breidablik W 4-1 1193 1283 35.3% 31.8% 32.9% +9.1 3
2006-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1283 1193 32.9% 31.8% 35.3% -9.1 6
2006-05-25 IA Akranes W 2-1 1472 1355 62.5% 23.1% 14.4% +1.7 9
2006-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1355 1472 14.4% 23.1% 62.5% -1.7 0
2006-05-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1312 1353 42.3% 31.0% 26.6% -12.9 3
2006-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1353 1312 26.6% 31.0% 42.3% +12.9 3
2006-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1350 1473 30.8% 31.7% 37.6% -3.5 6
2006-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1473 1350 37.6% 31.7% 30.8% +3.5 12
2006-05-28 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1330 1332 47.6% 29.7% 22.7% +8.0 7
2006-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1332 1330 22.7% 29.7% 47.6% -8.0 6
2006-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1299 1202 60.3% 24.3% 15.4% -6.1 3
2006-05-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1202 1299 15.4% 24.3% 60.3% +6.1 6
2006-05-29 Grindavik L 2-3 1274 1289 45.9% 30.2% 23.9% -4.5 6
2006-05-29 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1289 1274 23.9% 30.2% 45.9% +4.5 7
2006-05-29 IA Akranes W 2-1 1366 1354 49.5% 29.1% 21.4% +2.6 6
2006-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1354 1366 21.4% 29.1% 49.5% -2.6 0
2006-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1351 1347 48.5% 29.4% 22.0% -5.2 0
2006-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1347 1351 22.0% 29.4% 48.5% +5.2 9
2006-06-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1294 1293 48.0% 29.6% 22.4% -0.7 8
2006-06-05 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1293 1294 22.4% 29.6% 48.0% +0.7 4
2006-06-05 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1477 1338 65.2% 21.6% 13.3% +1.5 15
2006-06-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1338 1477 13.3% 21.6% 65.2% -1.5 7
2006-06-05 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1208 1368 26.2% 30.9% 42.8% +7.7 9
2006-06-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1368 1208 42.8% 30.9% 26.2% -7.7 6
2006-06-06 Breidablik W 3-2 1324 1269 55.0% 26.9% 18.1% +2.1 9
2006-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1269 1324 18.1% 26.9% 55.0% -2.1 6
2006-06-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1361 1352 49.1% 29.3% 21.7% +4.6 9
2006-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1352 1361 21.7% 29.3% 49.1% -4.6 9
2006-06-08 Grindavik D 0-0 1215 1293 37.2% 31.7% 31.1% -0.2 10
2006-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1293 1215 31.1% 31.7% 37.2% +0.1 9
2006-06-08 IA Akranes L 0-1 1336 1346 46.6% 30.0% 23.4% -5.0 7
2006-06-08 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1346 1336 23.4% 30.0% 46.6% +5.1 3
2006-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1267 1479 21.3% 29.1% 49.6% +0.7 7
2006-06-11 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1479 1267 49.6% 29.1% 21.3% -0.6 16
2006-06-12 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1347 1331 50.1% 28.9% 21.0% +2.6 12
2006-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1331 1347 21.0% 28.9% 50.1% -2.6 7
2006-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1293 1326 43.5% 30.8% 25.7% +6.2 7
2006-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1326 1293 25.7% 30.8% 43.5% -6.2 9
2006-06-15 Breidablik W 2-1 1351 1268 58.5% 25.2% 16.3% +2.0 6
2006-06-15 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1268 1351 16.3% 25.2% 58.5% -2.0 7
2006-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1478 1300 69.5% 19.0% 11.5% +2.2 19
2006-06-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1300 1478 11.5% 19.0% 69.5% -2.2 7
2006-06-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1293 1365 38.0% 31.6% 30.4% -0.2 10
2006-06-15 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1365 1293 30.4% 31.6% 38.0% +0.2 10
2006-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1320 1215 61.1% 23.8% 15.0% +1.9 12
2006-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1215 1320 15.0% 23.8% 61.1% -1.9 10
2006-06-21 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1365 1328 52.8% 27.9% 19.4% -0.9 11
2006-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1328 1365 19.4% 27.9% 52.8% +0.9 8
2006-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1213 1480 17.2% 26.1% 56.8% +1.0 11
2006-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1480 1213 56.8% 26.1% 17.2% -1.0 20
2006-06-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1266 1350 36.3% 31.8% 31.9% +3.5 10
2006-06-22 @ Breidablik L 2-3 1350 1266 31.9% 31.8% 36.3% -3.4 12
2006-06-22 IA Akranes W 2-1 1297 1353 40.3% 31.4% 28.3% +3.3 10
2006-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1353 1297 28.3% 31.4% 40.3% -3.3 6
2006-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 5-0 1293 1322 44.0% 30.7% 25.3% +14.2 13
2006-06-22 @ Grindavik L 0-5 1322 1293 25.3% 30.7% 44.0% -14.2 12
2006-06-28 Breidablik W 5-0 1329 1269 55.7% 26.6% 17.7% +10.2 11
2006-06-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-5 1269 1329 17.7% 26.6% 55.7% -10.2 10
2006-06-28 Grindavik W 2-0 1479 1307 68.8% 19.4% 11.8% +2.6 23
2006-06-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1307 1479 11.8% 19.4% 68.8% -2.6 13
2006-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1346 1301 53.9% 27.4% 18.7% -0.8 13
2006-06-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1301 1346 18.7% 27.4% 53.9% +0.8 11
2006-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1350 1214 64.7% 21.8% 13.5% -14.8 6
2006-06-28 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 1214 1350 13.5% 21.8% 64.7% +14.8 14
2006-06-29 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1308 1364 40.1% 31.4% 28.5% -0.2 13
2006-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1364 1308 28.5% 31.4% 40.1% +0.2 12
2006-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1482 1307 69.1% 19.2% 11.7% +2.6 26
2006-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1307 1482 11.7% 19.2% 69.1% -2.6 13
2006-07-07 Grindavik W 2-1 1335 1305 51.9% 28.2% 19.9% +2.5 9
2006-07-07 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1305 1335 19.9% 28.2% 51.9% -2.5 13
2006-07-09 Breidablik D 1-1 1365 1259 61.2% 23.8% 15.0% -1.1 13
2006-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1259 1365 15.0% 23.8% 61.2% +1.1 11
2006-07-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1346 1229 62.5% 23.1% 14.4% +1.8 16
2006-07-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1229 1346 14.4% 23.1% 62.5% -1.8 14
2006-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-2 1340 1302 52.9% 27.8% 19.3% +6.4 14
2006-07-13 @ Keflavik IF L 2-6 1302 1340 19.3% 27.8% 52.9% -6.4 11
2006-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1484 1364 63.0% 22.8% 14.2% -5.9 26
2006-07-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1364 1484 14.2% 22.8% 63.0% +5.9 16
2006-07-17 IA Akranes L 2-3 1305 1337 43.5% 30.8% 25.7% -4.3 13
2006-07-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1337 1305 25.7% 30.8% 43.5% +4.3 12
2006-07-18 Breidablik L 0-1 1295 1260 52.5% 28.0% 19.5% -5.5 11
2006-07-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1260 1295 19.5% 28.0% 52.5% +5.5 14
2006-07-18 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1302 1347 41.8% 31.1% 27.1% -0.3 14
2006-07-18 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1347 1302 27.1% 31.1% 41.8% +0.3 17
2006-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1227 1346 31.4% 31.7% 36.9% +0.1 15
2006-07-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1346 1227 36.9% 31.7% 31.4% -0.1 15
2006-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1266 1227 53.0% 27.8% 19.2% +2.5 17
2006-07-27 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1227 1266 19.2% 27.8% 53.0% -2.5 15
2006-07-30 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1342 1478 29.0% 31.5% 39.5% -3.6 12
2006-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1478 1342 39.5% 31.5% 29.0% +3.6 29
2006-07-31 Grindavik W 2-0 1346 1302 53.7% 27.5% 18.8% +4.6 18
2006-07-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1302 1346 18.8% 27.5% 53.7% -4.6 14
2006-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1370 1290 58.1% 25.4% 16.5% +9.3 19
2006-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1290 1370 16.5% 25.4% 58.1% -9.3 11
2006-07-31 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1348 1300 54.1% 27.3% 18.6% -5.3 17
2006-07-31 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1300 1348 18.6% 27.3% 54.1% +5.3 16
2006-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1306 1350 41.8% 31.1% 27.0% -0.2 17
2006-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1350 1306 27.0% 31.1% 41.8% +0.2 19
2006-08-10 Breidablik W 4-2 1297 1268 51.7% 28.3% 20.0% +3.8 17
2006-08-10 @ Grindavik L 2-4 1268 1297 20.0% 28.3% 51.7% -3.8 17
2006-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1482 1342 65.2% 21.5% 13.2% -0.9 30
2006-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1342 1482 13.2% 21.5% 65.2% +0.9 18
2006-08-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1225 1280 40.3% 31.4% 28.3% +15.5 18
2006-08-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-5 1280 1225 28.3% 31.4% 40.3% -15.5 11
2006-08-10 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1338 1379 42.4% 31.0% 26.6% -0.3 13
2006-08-10 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1379 1338 26.6% 31.0% 42.4% +0.3 20
2006-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1351 1481 29.8% 31.6% 38.6% +4.1 22
2006-08-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1481 1351 38.6% 31.6% 29.8% -4.1 30
2006-08-20 Grindavik W 2-1 1265 1301 43.0% 30.9% 26.1% +3.1 14
2006-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1301 1265 26.1% 30.9% 43.0% -3.1 17
2006-08-20 IA Akranes D 3-3 1343 1338 48.7% 29.4% 21.9% -0.4 19
2006-08-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-3 1338 1343 21.9% 29.4% 48.7% +0.4 14
2006-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1265 1305 42.4% 31.0% 26.6% -4.7 17
2006-08-20 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1305 1265 26.6% 31.0% 42.4% +4.7 20
2006-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1379 1241 65.1% 21.6% 13.3% -1.4 21
2006-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1241 1379 13.3% 21.6% 65.1% +1.4 19
2006-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1310 1268 53.4% 27.6% 19.0% +4.7 23
2006-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1268 1310 19.0% 27.6% 53.4% -4.7 14
2006-08-24 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1338 1355 45.7% 30.3% 24.1% +3.1 17
2006-08-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1355 1338 24.1% 30.3% 45.7% -3.1 22
2006-08-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1298 1242 55.2% 26.8% 18.0% -0.9 18
2006-08-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1242 1298 18.0% 26.8% 55.2% +0.9 20
2006-08-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1477 1260 73.5% 16.5% 10.0% -1.5 31
2006-08-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1260 1477 10.0% 16.5% 73.5% +1.5 18
2006-08-27 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1343 1378 43.2% 30.9% 25.9% -4.8 19
2006-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1378 1343 25.9% 30.9% 43.2% +4.8 24
2006-09-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1263 1475 21.2% 29.0% 49.8% +0.7 15
2006-09-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1475 1263 49.8% 29.0% 21.2% -0.7 32
2006-09-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1352 1338 49.7% 29.0% 21.2% -0.7 23
2006-09-10 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1338 1352 21.2% 29.0% 49.7% +0.6 20
2006-09-10 IA Akranes D 2-2 1261 1341 36.9% 31.7% 31.4% -0.1 19
2006-09-10 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1341 1261 31.4% 31.7% 36.9% +0.1 18
2006-09-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1243 1315 38.0% 31.6% 30.4% -4.3 20
2006-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1315 1243 30.4% 31.6% 38.0% +4.3 26
2006-09-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1383 1297 58.9% 25.0% 16.1% +2.0 27
2006-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1297 1383 16.1% 25.0% 58.9% -2.0 18
2006-09-16 Breidablik D 1-1 1339 1261 57.9% 25.5% 16.6% -1.0 21
2006-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1261 1339 16.6% 25.5% 57.9% +1.0 20
2006-09-16 Grindavik W 3-0 1319 1295 51.1% 28.5% 20.4% +7.3 29
2006-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1295 1319 20.4% 28.5% 51.1% -7.3 18
2006-09-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1341 1264 57.8% 25.6% 16.6% +3.1 21
2006-09-16 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 1264 1341 16.6% 25.6% 57.8% -3.1 15
2006-09-16 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1351 1385 43.4% 30.8% 25.8% -0.4 24
2006-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1385 1351 25.8% 30.8% 43.4% +0.4 28
2006-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1475 1238 75.4% 15.3% 9.3% +3.7 35
2006-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1238 1475 9.3% 15.3% 75.4% -3.7 20
2006-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1288 1478 23.1% 29.9% 46.9% +0.5 19
2006-09-23 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1478 1288 46.9% 29.9% 23.1% -0.5 36
2006-09-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1261 1338 37.3% 31.7% 31.0% +7.1 18
2006-09-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1338 1261 31.0% 31.7% 37.3% -7.1 21
2006-09-23 IA Akranes D 1-1 1235 1344 32.6% 31.8% 35.6% +0.1 21
2006-09-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1344 1235 35.6% 31.8% 32.6% -0.1 22
2006-09-23 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1262 1351 35.6% 31.8% 32.6% +3.7 23
2006-09-23 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1351 1262 32.6% 31.8% 35.6% -3.7 24
2006-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1385 1326 55.5% 26.7% 17.8% -0.7 29
2006-09-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1326 1385 17.8% 26.7% 55.5% +0.7 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-06-28 13.47% Vikingur Reykjavik 1214 4 @ IA Akranes 1350 1
2 2006-07-16 14.18% Valur Reykjavik 1364 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1484 1
3 2006-05-28 15.44% Vikingur Reykjavik 1202 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1299 0
4 2006-07-31 18.61% KR Reykjavik 1300 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1348 1
5 2006-05-20 19.36% KR Reykjavik 1324 2 @ IA Akranes 1361 1
6 2006-07-18 19.53% Breidablik 1260 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1295 0
7 2006-06-05 22.04% Fylkir Reykjavik 1347 1 @ IA Akranes 1351 0
8 2006-06-08 23.35% IA Akranes 1346 1 @ Keflavik IF 1336 0
9 2006-05-29 23.89% Grindavik 1289 3 @ Breidablik 1274 2
10 2006-07-17 25.68% IA Akranes 1337 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1305 2
11 2006-08-27 25.94% Valur Reykjavik 1378 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1343 0
12 2006-06-05 26.24% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1208 3 Valur Reykjavik 1368 1
13 2006-08-20 26.60% KR Reykjavik 1305 1 @ Breidablik 1265 0
14 2006-05-25 26.62% Valur Reykjavik 1353 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1312 0
15 2006-08-20 29.84% @ Keflavik IF 1351 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1481 1
16 2006-09-10 30.39% KR Reykjavik 1315 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1243 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-08-10 15.55 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1225 40.33% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1280 28.30% 31.37%
2 2006-06-28 14.78 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1214 13.47% @ IA Akranes 1 1350 64.70% 21.83%
3 2006-06-22 14.22 @ Grindavik 5 1293 44.02% KR Reykjavik 0 1322 25.28% 30.69%
4 2006-05-25 12.86 Valur Reykjavik 3 1353 26.62% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1312 42.34% 31.04%
5 2006-05-14 10.38 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1454 37.08% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1334 31.20% 31.71%
6 2006-06-28 10.16 @ Keflavik IF 5 1329 55.67% Breidablik 0 1269 17.73% 26.59%
7 2006-07-31 9.35 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1370 58.14% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1290 16.46% 25.40%
8 2006-05-25 9.08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1193 35.33% Breidablik 1 1283 32.87% 31.80%
9 2006-05-28 8.04 @ Keflavik IF 3 1330 47.61% KR Reykjavik 0 1332 22.65% 29.73%
10 2006-05-20 7.86 @ Breidablik 4 1275 41.85% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1320 27.02% 31.13%
11 2006-06-05 7.74 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1208 26.24% Valur Reykjavik 1 1368 42.81% 30.95%
12 2006-05-21 7.49 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1464 34.80% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1360 33.40% 31.81%
13 2006-09-16 7.28 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1319 51.11% Grindavik 0 1295 20.36% 28.53%
14 2006-09-23 7.12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1261 37.26% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1338 31.04% 31.70%
15 2006-05-14 6.62 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1345 40.47% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1201 28.18% 31.35%
16 2006-07-13 6.37 @ Keflavik IF 6 1340 52.89% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1302 19.29% 27.82%
17 2006-06-12 6.16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1293 43.51% KR Reykjavik 0 1326 25.69% 30.81%
18 2006-05-28 6.10 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1202 15.44% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1299 60.26% 24.30%
19 2006-07-16 5.93 Valur Reykjavik 2 1364 14.18% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1484 63.04% 22.78%
20 2006-07-18 5.51 Breidablik 1 1260 19.53% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1295 52.48% 27.99%
21 2006-07-31 5.31 KR Reykjavik 2 1300 18.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1348 54.08% 27.31%
22 2006-05-20 5.22 KR Reykjavik 2 1324 19.36% @ IA Akranes 1 1361 52.78% 27.87%
23 2006-06-05 5.20 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1347 22.04% @ IA Akranes 0 1351 48.52% 29.45%
24 2006-06-08 5.05 IA Akranes 1 1346 23.35% @ Keflavik IF 0 1336 46.62% 30.03%
25 2006-08-27 4.77 Valur Reykjavik 1 1378 25.94% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1343 43.18% 30.87%