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2006 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

36 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 2005.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

18 pts

Grindavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

6.14 points above expected

30 points · 23.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fylkir Reykjavik

5.58 points below expected

21 points · 26.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 18 10 6 2 36 31 14 +17 34.88 +1.12
2 KR Reykjavik 18 9 3 6 30 23 27 -4 23.86 +6.14
3 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 8 3 29 27 18 +9 27.00 +2.00
4 Keflavik IF 18 6 6 6 24 30 20 +10 25.25 -1.25
5 Breidablik 18 6 5 7 23 27 33 -6 20.16 +2.84
6 IA Akranes 18 6 4 8 22 27 30 -3 26.03 -4.03
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 21 18 +3 17.54 +3.46
8 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 5 6 7 21 22 25 -3 26.58 -5.58
9 Grindavik Relegated 18 4 7 7 19 24 26 -2 21.95 -2.95
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated 18 5 3 10 18 18 39 -21 22.42 -4.42

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 30 23.86 +6.14
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 21 17.54 +3.46
3 Breidablik 23 20.16 +2.84
4 Valur Reykjavik 29 27.00 +2.00
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 34.88 +1.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 21 26.58 -5.58
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 22.42 -4.42
3 IA Akranes 22 26.03 -4.03
4 Grindavik 19 21.95 -2.95
5 Keflavik IF 24 25.25 -1.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 May 25 – Jun 5 1 in 72
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 51
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 20 – Sep 16 1 in 45
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 25 – May 29 1 in 8
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 202
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 13 – Aug 10 1 in 42
3 Breidablik 3 May 25 – Jun 6 1 in 22
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 5 – Jun 12 1 in 13
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 15 – May 21 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 13 Jun 8 – Sep 23 1 in 146
2 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 31 – Sep 23 1 in 29
3 Breidablik 4 Aug 27 – Sep 23 1 in 19
4 Keflavik IF 7 Jun 21 – Aug 20 1 in 16
5 Grindavik 6 May 24 – Jun 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 8 Jul 18 – Sep 23 1 in 52
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Aug 10 – Sep 10 1 in 35
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 15 – Jul 9 1 in 11
4 IA Akranes 5 May 14 – Jun 5 1 in 9
5 Grindavik 5 Aug 20 – Sep 23 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FH Hafnarfjordur 1472 36 -3 6 9.8 -3.8
KR Reykjavik 1321 30 +22 13 6.8 +6.2
Valur Reykjavik 1378 29 +5 9 8.3 +0.7
Keflavik IF 1341 24 -4 5 6.9 -1.9
Breidablik 1260 23 +1 6 5.6 +0.4
IA Akranes 1338 22 +7 9 7.3 +1.7
Vikingur Reykjavik 1227 21 -6 3 4.6 -1.6
Fylkir Reykjavik 1325 21 -13 3 7.5 -4.5
Grindavik 1282 19 -13 2 5.6 -3.6
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1262 18 +3 7 5.6 +1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI IA IV KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
0-2-0
1.39
1-1-0
2.16
0-0-2
2.56
0-1-1
2.16
2-0-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.39
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
3.18
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-2-0
4.15
 —
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.96
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.48
1-1-0
4.39
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.27
0-1-1
1.85
 —
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
2.71
0-1-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.95
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.65
Grindavik
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
2.36
 —
1-0-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.19
0-2-0
3.19
IA Akranes
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
1.85
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.08
 —
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.94
2-0-0
2.67
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
3.56
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-0-2
2.98
0-1-1
1.46
1-1-0
2.27
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.28
 —
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
3.23
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.80
2-0-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.96
 —
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
2.32
2-0-0
3.32
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
2.70
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.85
 —
0-2-0
2.47
1-1-0
3.60
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
3.39
1-0-1
1.97
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
3.10
0-2-0
2.94
 —
0-1-1
3.78
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
1.20
0-0-2
1.81
0-2-0
2.23
1-1-0
1.91
2-0-0
2.21
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-1
1.87
1-1-0
1.70
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.40 +8.7
Allowed 0.38 -4.5
Differential 0.49 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%7.22%4.44%2.22%0.56%2.22%22.22%
17.22%18.89%10.56%1.67%1.67%—40.00%
24.44%10.56%4.44%2.78%1.11%0.56%23.89%
32.22%1.67%2.78%1.11%——7.78%
40.56%1.67%1.11%———3.33%
5+2.22%—0.56%———2.78%
Total22.22%40.00%23.89%7.78%3.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.78
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—44.44%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.83 -0.33
SD 0.99 1.42 1.78
CV 0.66 0.78 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
216.67%16.67%5.56%———38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.78 +0.94
SD 0.96 0.73 1.35
CV 0.56 0.94 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%——50.00%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.39 -0.17
SD 0.81 0.98 1.10
CV 0.66 0.70 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
1—27.78%22.22%———50.00%
2———————
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%50.00%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.44 -0.11
SD 1.46 0.86 1.75
CV 1.09 0.59 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
111.11%11.11%22.22%—5.56%—50.00%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%38.89%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.04 1.03 1.20
CV 0.70 0.62 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—11.11%38.89%
1—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
211.11%16.67%——5.56%5.56%38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%5.56%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.17 -1.17
SD 0.91 1.92 2.23
CV 0.91 0.88 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
122.22%5.56%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%27.78%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.50 -0.22
SD 1.02 1.42 2.05
CV 0.80 0.95 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—22.22%22.22%———44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%44.44%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.11 +0.56
SD 1.61 0.76 1.82
CV 0.97 0.68 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%27.78%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%50.00%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.25 0.84 1.65
CV 0.83 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—50.00%
15.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
2———————
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%55.56%11.11%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.00 +0.17
SD 1.65 0.97 2.07
CV 1.42 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1472 36 34.88 +1.12 54.0% 20 25 32 35 39 42 46
Valur Reykjavik 1378 29 27.00 +2.00 65.0% 14 17 23 27 31 35 38
Keflavik IF 1341 24 25.25 -1.25 43.0% 14 16 22 25 28 33 35
IA Akranes 1338 22 26.03 -4.03 27.0% 16 18 22 27 29 34 37
Fylkir Reykjavik 1325 21 26.58 -5.58 17.0% 13 17 23 27 29 34 38
KR Reykjavik 1321 30 23.86 +6.14 89.0% 14 16 20 24 27 34 38
Grindavik 1282 19 21.95 -2.95 31.0% 9 13 19 22 25 30 34
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1262 18 22.42 -4.42 27.0% 11 14 18 23 27 30 38
Breidablik 1260 23 20.16 +2.84 75.0% 9 13 17 20 23 28 32
Vikingur Reykjavik 1227 21 17.54 +3.46 86.0% 6 10 15 18 20 26 31

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
48.89%30.00%21.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
200 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
099.11600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.49+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
69%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.280.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.03 * Some Luck: 4.03 to 6.05 * Lucky: 6.05 to 8.07 * Wild Swing: 8.07 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.51 * Close: 1.51 to 2.26 * Off: 2.26 to 3.02 * Way Off: 3.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.01 * A Surprise: 1.01 to 1.62 * Several Surprises: 1.62 to 2.22 * Many Surprises: 2.22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.73 points
As Expected
05.0413
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.40
Off
01.884
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
17.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 70.26
1.05
Coin-Flip Parity
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Notable Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.55
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.117
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
FH Hafnarfjordur69.00%16.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%———
KR Reykjavik6.00%8.00%4.00%10.00%13.00%15.00%17.00%11.00%12.00%4.00%
Valur Reykjavik12.00%15.00%18.00%16.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%
Keflavik IF2.00%12.00%19.00%20.00%9.00%9.00%14.00%8.00%5.00%2.00%
Breidablik—5.00%4.00%2.00%11.00%15.00%11.00%12.00%17.00%23.00%
IA Akranes3.00%15.00%19.00%13.00%13.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—1.00%—3.00%3.00%6.00%8.00%20.00%19.00%40.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik7.00%14.00%20.00%15.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%7.00%4.00%
Grindavik1.00%7.00%3.00%6.00%17.00%13.00%13.00%18.00%12.00%10.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—7.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%14.00%11.00%10.00%18.00%13.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 100% —
IA Akranes 93.00% 7.00%
Keflavik IF 93.00% 7.00%
Valur Reykjavik 93.00% 7.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 89.00% 11.00%
KR Reykjavik 84.00% 16.00%
Grindavik 78.00% 22.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 69.00% 31.00%
Breidablik 60.00% 40.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2006-05-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-338.7 1328 1448 31.21% 31.71% 37.07%-0.10 -10.4 0
2006-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-038.7 1448 1328 37.07% 31.71% 31.21%+0.10 +10.4 3
2006-05-14 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-236.6 1192 1339 27.86% 31.30% 40.84%-0.24 -6.6 0
2006-05-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-036.6 1339 1192 40.84% 31.30% 27.86%+0.24 +6.6 3
2006-05-14 IA Akranes W 3-252.5 1282 1358 37.46% 31.69% 30.86%+0.12 +3.4 3
2006-05-14 @ Grindavik L 2-352.5 1358 1282 30.86% 31.69% 37.46%-0.12 -3.4 0
2006-05-14 Keflavik IF W 2-144.5 1311 1325 46.05% 30.19% 23.76%+0.43 +2.9 3
2006-05-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.5 1325 1311 23.76% 30.19% 46.05%-0.43 -2.9 0
2006-05-15 Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.8 1265 1358 34.92% 31.81% 33.28%+0.03 +3.7 3
2006-05-15 @ Breidablik L 1-247.8 1358 1265 33.28% 31.81% 34.92%-0.03 -3.7 0
2006-05-19 Grindavik W 2-141.6 1345 1286 55.62% 26.62% 17.76%+0.79 +2.2 6
2006-05-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-241.6 1286 1345 17.76% 26.62% 55.62%-0.79 -2.2 3
2006-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-138.2 1322 1186 64.84% 21.75% 13.41%+1.18 +1.6 3
2006-05-19 @ Keflavik IF L 1-238.2 1186 1322 13.41% 21.75% 64.84%-1.18 -1.5 0
2006-05-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-140.4 1269 1314 41.76% 31.15% 27.09%+0.27 +7.9 6
2006-05-20 @ Breidablik L 1-440.4 1314 1269 27.09% 31.15% 41.76%-0.27 -7.9 3
2006-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-252.9 1355 1318 52.77% 27.87% 19.36%+0.68 -5.2 0
2006-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 2-152.9 1318 1355 19.36% 27.87% 52.77%-0.68 +5.2 3
2006-05-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-241.8 1355 1458 33.43% 31.81% 34.76%-0.02 -7.5 0
2006-05-21 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-041.8 1458 1355 34.76% 31.81% 33.43%+0.02 +7.5 6
2006-05-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-039.5 1323 1347 44.62% 30.55% 24.83%+0.37 +3.2 6
2006-05-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-139.5 1347 1323 24.83% 30.55% 44.62%-0.37 -3.2 6
2006-05-24 Keflavik IF D 1-151.1 1284 1324 42.49% 31.01% 26.50%+0.30 -0.3 4
2006-05-24 @ Grindavik D 1-151.1 1324 1284 26.50% 31.01% 42.49%-0.30 +0.3 4
2006-05-25 Breidablik W 4-141.9 1184 1277 35.04% 31.80% 33.15%+0.03 +9.1 3
2006-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-441.9 1277 1184 33.15% 31.80% 35.04%-0.03 -9.1 6
2006-05-25 IA Akranes W 2-142.4 1466 1349 62.52% 23.07% 14.41%+1.08 +1.7 9
2006-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-242.4 1349 1466 14.41% 23.07% 62.52%-1.08 -1.7 0
2006-05-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-340.1 1306 1347 42.32% 31.05% 26.64%+0.29 -12.9 3
2006-05-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-040.1 1347 1306 26.64% 31.05% 42.32%-0.29 +12.9 3
2006-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-249.8 1344 1468 30.76% 31.68% 37.57%-0.12 -3.5 6
2006-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-149.8 1468 1344 37.57% 31.68% 30.76%+0.12 +3.5 12
2006-05-28 KR Reykjavik W 3-033.8 1324 1326 47.63% 29.73% 22.64%+0.48 +8.0 7
2006-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-333.8 1326 1324 22.64% 29.73% 47.63%-0.48 -8.0 6
2006-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-147.2 1293 1193 60.57% 24.13% 15.29%+0.99 -6.1 3
2006-05-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-047.2 1193 1293 15.29% 24.13% 60.57%-0.99 +6.1 6
2006-05-29 Grindavik L 2-356.0 1267 1283 45.79% 30.26% 23.95%+0.42 -4.5 6
2006-05-29 @ Breidablik W 3-256.0 1283 1267 23.95% 30.26% 45.79%-0.42 +4.5 7
2006-05-29 IA Akranes W 2-144.3 1360 1348 49.54% 29.10% 21.36%+0.56 +2.6 6
2006-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-244.3 1348 1360 21.36% 29.10% 49.54%-0.56 -2.6 0
2006-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-146.5 1345 1341 48.53% 29.44% 22.03%+0.52 -5.2 0
2006-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 1-046.5 1341 1345 22.03% 29.44% 48.53%-0.52 +5.2 9
2006-06-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-046.7 1288 1287 48.03% 29.60% 22.37%+0.50 -0.7 8
2006-06-05 @ Grindavik D 0-046.7 1287 1288 22.37% 29.60% 48.03%-0.50 +0.6 4
2006-06-05 Keflavik IF W 2-141.3 1471 1332 65.16% 21.56% 13.27%+1.19 +1.5 15
2006-06-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-241.3 1332 1471 13.27% 21.56% 65.16%-1.19 -1.5 7
2006-06-05 Valur Reykjavik W 3-147.3 1199 1363 25.95% 30.88% 43.18%-0.32 +7.8 9
2006-06-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-347.3 1363 1199 43.18% 30.88% 25.95%+0.32 -7.8 6
2006-06-06 Breidablik W 3-246.8 1318 1263 55.07% 26.87% 18.06%+0.77 +2.1 9
2006-06-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-346.8 1263 1318 18.06% 26.87% 55.07%-0.77 -2.1 6
2006-06-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-141.5 1355 1346 49.11% 29.25% 21.64%+0.54 +4.6 9
2006-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-341.5 1346 1355 21.64% 29.25% 49.11%-0.54 -4.6 9
2006-06-08 Grindavik D 0-045.7 1207 1287 36.84% 31.73% 31.44%+0.10 -0.1 10
2006-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-045.7 1287 1207 31.44% 31.73% 36.84%-0.10 +0.1 9
2006-06-08 IA Akranes L 0-145.9 1330 1340 46.64% 30.02% 23.34%+0.45 -5.0 7
2006-06-08 @ Keflavik IF W 1-045.9 1340 1330 23.34% 30.02% 46.64%-0.45 +5.0 3
2006-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.1 1261 1473 21.24% 29.04% 49.72%-0.56 +0.7 7
2006-06-11 @ Breidablik D 1-153.1 1473 1261 49.72% 29.04% 21.24%+0.56 -0.6 16
2006-06-12 Keflavik IF W 2-143.6 1341 1325 50.04% 28.93% 21.04%+0.57 +2.6 12
2006-06-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-243.6 1325 1341 21.04% 28.93% 50.04%-0.57 -2.6 7
2006-06-12 KR Reykjavik W 2-036.2 1288 1320 43.51% 30.81% 25.69%+0.33 +6.2 7
2006-06-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-236.2 1320 1288 25.69% 30.81% 43.51%-0.33 -6.2 9
2006-06-15 Breidablik W 2-140.6 1345 1262 58.59% 25.17% 16.24%+0.91 +2.0 6
2006-06-15 @ IA Akranes L 1-240.6 1262 1345 16.24% 25.17% 58.59%-0.91 -2.0 7
2006-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-136.4 1472 1294 69.48% 18.99% 11.53%+1.38 +2.2 19
2006-06-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-336.4 1294 1472 11.53% 18.99% 69.48%-1.38 -2.2 7
2006-06-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.2 1287 1359 37.95% 31.65% 30.41%+0.13 -0.2 10
2006-06-15 @ Grindavik D 1-151.2 1359 1287 30.41% 31.65% 37.95%-0.13 +0.2 10
2006-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-033.5 1314 1207 61.43% 23.67% 14.90%+1.03 +1.9 12
2006-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-133.5 1207 1314 14.90% 23.67% 61.43%-1.03 -1.9 10
2006-06-21 Keflavik IF D 0-048.1 1360 1323 52.75% 27.88% 19.37%+0.68 -0.9 11
2006-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-048.1 1323 1360 19.37% 27.88% 52.75%-0.68 +0.9 8
2006-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.6 1205 1474 17.01% 25.94% 57.05%-0.85 +1.1 11
2006-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-048.6 1474 1205 57.05% 25.94% 17.01%+0.85 -1.0 20
2006-06-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-252.6 1260 1344 36.22% 31.76% 32.02%+0.07 +3.5 10
2006-06-22 @ Breidablik L 2-352.6 1344 1260 32.02% 31.76% 36.22%-0.07 -3.4 12
2006-06-22 IA Akranes W 2-146.3 1292 1347 40.32% 31.37% 28.31%+0.22 +3.3 10
2006-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-246.3 1347 1292 28.31% 31.37% 40.32%-0.22 -3.3 6
2006-06-22 KR Reykjavik W 5-035.3 1287 1316 44.01% 30.69% 25.29%+0.35 +14.2 13
2006-06-22 @ Grindavik L 0-535.3 1316 1287 25.29% 30.69% 44.01%-0.35 -14.2 12
2006-06-28 Breidablik W 5-031.7 1324 1263 55.76% 26.55% 17.68%+0.80 +10.1 11
2006-06-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-531.7 1263 1324 17.68% 26.55% 55.76%-0.80 -10.1 10
2006-06-28 Grindavik W 2-030.7 1473 1301 68.80% 19.40% 11.80%+1.35 +2.6 23
2006-06-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-230.7 1301 1473 11.80% 19.40% 68.80%-1.35 -2.6 13
2006-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.4 1340 1295 53.86% 27.41% 18.73%+0.72 -0.8 13
2006-06-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.4 1295 1340 18.73% 27.41% 53.86%-0.72 +0.8 11
2006-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-448.7 1344 1206 64.98% 21.67% 13.35%+1.18 -14.8 6
2006-06-28 @ IA Akranes W 4-148.7 1206 1344 13.35% 21.67% 64.98%-1.18 +14.8 14
2006-06-29 Valur Reykjavik D 1-151.4 1302 1359 40.10% 31.41% 28.50%+0.21 -0.2 13
2006-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-151.4 1359 1302 28.50% 31.41% 40.10%-0.21 +0.2 12
2006-07-06 KR Reykjavik W 2-030.7 1476 1301 69.07% 19.24% 11.69%+1.36 +2.6 26
2006-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-230.7 1301 1476 11.69% 19.24% 69.07%-1.36 -2.6 13
2006-07-07 Grindavik W 2-142.7 1329 1299 51.90% 28.22% 19.88%+0.65 +2.5 9
2006-07-07 @ IA Akranes L 1-242.7 1299 1329 19.88% 28.22% 51.90%-0.65 -2.4 13
2006-07-09 Breidablik D 1-153.3 1359 1253 61.31% 23.74% 14.96%+1.02 -1.1 13
2006-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-153.3 1253 1359 14.96% 23.74% 61.31%-1.02 +1.1 11
2006-07-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-033.2 1340 1221 62.80% 22.91% 14.29%+1.09 +1.8 16
2006-07-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-133.2 1221 1340 14.29% 22.91% 62.80%-1.09 -1.8 14
2006-07-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-237.6 1334 1296 52.91% 27.81% 19.28%+0.68 +6.4 14
2006-07-13 @ Keflavik IF L 2-637.6 1296 1334 19.28% 27.81% 52.91%-0.68 -6.4 11
2006-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-257.4 1478 1358 63.02% 22.79% 14.19%+1.10 -5.9 26
2006-07-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-157.4 1358 1478 14.19% 22.79% 63.02%-1.10 +5.9 16
2006-07-17 IA Akranes L 2-356.0 1299 1331 43.52% 30.80% 25.68%+0.33 -4.3 13
2006-07-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-256.0 1331 1299 25.68% 30.80% 43.52%-0.33 +4.3 12
2006-07-18 Breidablik L 0-146.1 1289 1254 52.56% 27.96% 19.48%+0.67 -5.5 11
2006-07-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-046.1 1254 1289 19.48% 27.96% 52.56%-0.67 +5.5 14
2006-07-18 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-151.3 1296 1341 41.75% 31.15% 27.10%+0.27 -0.3 14
2006-07-18 @ Grindavik D 1-151.3 1341 1296 27.10% 31.15% 41.75%-0.27 +0.3 17
2006-07-18 Keflavik IF D 1-150.6 1219 1340 31.07% 31.70% 37.23%-0.11 +0.1 15
2006-07-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1340 1219 37.23% 31.70% 31.07%+0.11 -0.1 15
2006-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-035.8 1259 1219 53.18% 27.70% 19.12%+0.70 +2.5 17
2006-07-27 @ Breidablik L 0-135.8 1219 1259 19.12% 27.70% 53.18%-0.70 -2.5 15
2006-07-30 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-143.3 1336 1472 29.03% 31.48% 39.49%-0.19 -3.6 12
2006-07-30 @ IA Akranes W 1-043.3 1472 1336 39.49% 31.48% 29.03%+0.19 +3.6 29
2006-07-31 Grindavik W 2-033.4 1340 1296 53.68% 27.48% 18.83%+0.71 +4.6 18
2006-07-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-233.4 1296 1340 18.83% 27.48% 53.68%-0.71 -4.6 14
2006-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-031.4 1364 1284 58.16% 25.39% 16.45%+0.89 +9.3 19
2006-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-531.4 1284 1364 16.45% 25.39% 58.16%-0.89 -9.3 11
2006-07-31 KR Reykjavik L 1-252.8 1342 1295 54.07% 27.32% 18.61%+0.73 -5.3 17
2006-07-31 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-152.8 1295 1342 18.61% 27.32% 54.07%-0.73 +5.3 16
2006-08-09 Keflavik IF D 2-257.5 1300 1345 41.81% 31.14% 27.05%+0.27 -0.2 17
2006-08-09 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-257.5 1345 1300 27.05% 31.14% 41.81%-0.27 +0.2 19
2006-08-10 Breidablik W 4-243.5 1291 1262 51.77% 28.27% 19.96%+0.64 +3.8 17
2006-08-10 @ Grindavik L 2-443.5 1262 1291 19.96% 28.27% 51.77%-0.64 -3.8 17
2006-08-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-263.0 1476 1336 65.22% 21.53% 13.25%+1.19 -0.9 30
2006-08-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-263.0 1336 1476 13.25% 21.53% 65.22%-1.19 +0.9 18
2006-08-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-036.0 1217 1274 40.00% 31.42% 28.58%+0.21 +15.7 18
2006-08-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-536.0 1274 1217 28.58% 31.42% 40.00%-0.21 -15.7 11
2006-08-10 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.1 1332 1373 42.32% 31.04% 26.63%+0.29 -0.3 13
2006-08-10 @ IA Akranes D 1-152.1 1373 1332 26.63% 31.04% 42.32%-0.29 +0.4 20
2006-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-152.3 1345 1475 29.86% 31.59% 38.55%-0.16 +4.1 22
2006-08-20 @ Keflavik IF L 1-252.3 1475 1345 38.55% 31.59% 29.86%+0.16 -4.1 30
2006-08-20 Grindavik W 2-144.9 1259 1295 43.00% 30.91% 26.09%+0.31 +3.1 14
2006-08-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-244.9 1295 1259 26.09% 30.91% 43.00%-0.31 -3.1 17
2006-08-20 IA Akranes D 3-362.2 1337 1332 48.68% 29.39% 21.93%+0.52 -0.4 19
2006-08-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-362.2 1332 1337 21.93% 29.39% 48.68%-0.52 +0.4 14
2006-08-20 KR Reykjavik L 0-144.0 1258 1300 42.28% 31.05% 26.67%+0.29 -4.7 17
2006-08-20 @ Breidablik W 1-044.0 1300 1258 26.67% 31.05% 42.28%-0.29 +4.7 20
2006-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-049.3 1373 1232 65.37% 21.44% 13.19%+1.20 -1.4 21
2006-08-20 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-049.3 1232 1373 13.19% 21.44% 65.37%-1.20 +1.4 19
2006-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-033.0 1304 1262 53.46% 27.58% 18.96%+0.71 +4.7 23
2006-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-233.0 1262 1304 18.96% 27.58% 53.46%-0.71 -4.7 14
2006-08-24 Keflavik IF W 1-039.3 1332 1349 45.64% 30.30% 24.06%+0.41 +3.1 17
2006-08-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-139.3 1349 1332 24.06% 30.30% 45.64%-0.41 -3.1 22
2006-08-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-152.0 1292 1234 55.45% 26.70% 17.86%+0.78 -0.9 18
2006-08-24 @ Grindavik D 1-152.0 1234 1292 17.86% 26.70% 55.45%-0.78 +0.9 20
2006-08-27 Breidablik D 1-156.7 1471 1253 73.55% 16.49% 9.96%+1.58 -1.5 31
2006-08-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-156.7 1253 1471 9.96% 16.49% 73.55%-1.58 +1.5 18
2006-08-27 Valur Reykjavik L 0-145.6 1337 1372 43.16% 30.88% 25.96%+0.32 -4.8 19
2006-08-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-045.6 1372 1337 25.96% 30.88% 43.16%-0.32 +4.8 24
2006-09-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.0 1257 1469 21.20% 29.02% 49.78%-0.56 +0.7 15
2006-09-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.0 1469 1257 49.78% 29.02% 21.20%+0.56 -0.7 32
2006-09-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.3 1346 1332 49.75% 29.03% 21.23%+0.56 -0.7 23
2006-09-10 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.3 1332 1346 21.23% 29.03% 49.75%-0.56 +0.6 20
2006-09-10 IA Akranes D 2-256.9 1255 1335 36.82% 31.73% 31.45%+0.09 -0.1 19
2006-09-10 @ Breidablik D 2-256.9 1335 1255 31.45% 31.73% 36.82%-0.09 +0.1 18
2006-09-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-142.8 1235 1309 37.66% 31.67% 30.67%+0.12 -4.3 20
2006-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-042.8 1309 1235 30.67% 31.67% 37.66%-0.12 +4.3 26
2006-09-11 Grindavik W 2-141.0 1377 1291 58.87% 25.03% 16.10%+0.92 +2.0 27
2006-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-241.0 1291 1377 16.10% 25.03% 58.87%-0.92 -1.9 18
2006-09-16 Breidablik D 1-152.6 1333 1255 57.91% 25.51% 16.58%+0.88 -1.0 21
2006-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-152.6 1255 1333 16.58% 25.51% 57.91%-0.88 +1.0 20
2006-09-16 Grindavik W 3-032.3 1313 1289 51.12% 28.53% 20.36%+0.62 +7.3 29
2006-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-332.3 1289 1313 20.36% 28.53% 51.12%-0.62 -7.3 18
2006-09-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-241.9 1335 1258 57.83% 25.55% 16.62%+0.88 +3.1 21
2006-09-16 @ IA Akranes L 2-441.9 1258 1335 16.62% 25.55% 57.83%-0.88 -3.1 15
2006-09-16 Valur Reykjavik D 1-152.4 1345 1379 43.38% 30.83% 25.79%+0.33 -0.4 24
2006-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 1-152.4 1379 1345 25.79% 30.83% 43.38%-0.33 +0.4 28
2006-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-026.0 1469 1230 75.59% 15.22% 9.19%+1.68 +3.6 35
2006-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-426.0 1230 1469 9.19% 15.22% 75.59%-1.68 -3.6 20
2006-09-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.2 1282 1472 23.14% 29.94% 46.91%-0.46 +0.5 19
2006-09-23 @ Grindavik D 1-153.2 1472 1282 46.91% 29.94% 23.14%+0.46 -0.5 36
2006-09-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-037.9 1255 1332 37.25% 31.70% 31.04%+0.11 +7.1 18
2006-09-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-237.9 1332 1255 31.04% 31.70% 37.25%-0.11 -7.1 21
2006-09-23 IA Akranes D 1-150.6 1227 1338 32.34% 31.78% 35.88%-0.06 +0.1 21
2006-09-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1338 1227 35.88% 31.78% 32.34%+0.06 -0.1 22
2006-09-23 Keflavik IF W 2-147.4 1256 1345 35.55% 31.79% 32.66%+0.05 +3.7 23
2006-09-23 @ Breidablik L 1-247.4 1345 1256 32.66% 31.79% 35.55%-0.05 -3.7 24
2006-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 2-259.4 1379 1321 55.51% 26.67% 17.82%+0.79 -0.7 29
2006-09-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-259.4 1321 1379 17.82% 26.67% 55.51%-0.79 +0.7 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2006-06-28 13.35% Vikingur Reykjavik 1206 4 @ IA Akranes 1344 1
2 2006-07-16 14.19% Valur Reykjavik 1358 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1478 1
3 2006-05-28 15.29% Vikingur Reykjavik 1193 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1293 0
4 2006-07-31 18.61% KR Reykjavik 1295 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1342 1
5 2006-05-20 19.36% KR Reykjavik 1318 2 @ IA Akranes 1355 1
6 2006-07-18 19.48% Breidablik 1254 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1289 0
7 2006-06-05 22.03% Fylkir Reykjavik 1341 1 @ IA Akranes 1345 0
8 2006-06-08 23.34% IA Akranes 1340 1 @ Keflavik IF 1330 0
9 2006-05-29 23.95% Grindavik 1283 3 @ Breidablik 1267 2
10 2006-07-17 25.68% IA Akranes 1331 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1299 2
11 2006-06-05 25.95% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1199 3 Valur Reykjavik 1363 1
12 2006-08-27 25.96% Valur Reykjavik 1372 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1337 0
13 2006-05-25 26.64% Valur Reykjavik 1347 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1306 0
14 2006-08-20 26.67% KR Reykjavik 1300 1 @ Breidablik 1258 0
15 2006-08-20 29.86% @ Keflavik IF 1345 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1475 1
16 2006-09-10 30.67% KR Reykjavik 1309 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1235 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-08-10 15.66 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1217 40.00% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1274 28.58% 31.42%
2 2006-06-28 14.82 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1206 13.35% @ IA Akranes 1 1344 64.98% 21.67%
3 2006-06-22 14.23 @ Grindavik 5 1287 44.01% KR Reykjavik 0 1316 25.29% 30.69%
4 2006-05-25 12.86 Valur Reykjavik 3 1347 26.64% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1306 42.32% 31.05%
5 2006-05-14 10.38 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1448 37.07% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1328 31.21% 31.71%
6 2006-06-28 10.13 @ Keflavik IF 5 1324 55.76% Breidablik 0 1263 17.68% 26.55%
7 2006-07-31 9.34 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1364 58.16% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1284 16.45% 25.39%
8 2006-05-25 9.13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1184 35.04% Breidablik 1 1277 33.15% 31.80%
9 2006-05-28 8.04 @ Keflavik IF 3 1324 47.63% KR Reykjavik 0 1326 22.64% 29.73%
10 2006-05-20 7.87 @ Breidablik 4 1269 41.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1314 27.09% 31.15%
11 2006-06-05 7.78 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1199 25.95% Valur Reykjavik 1 1363 43.18% 30.88%
12 2006-05-21 7.50 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1458 34.76% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1355 33.43% 31.81%
13 2006-09-16 7.28 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1313 51.12% Grindavik 0 1289 20.36% 28.53%
14 2006-09-23 7.11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1255 37.25% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1332 31.04% 31.70%
15 2006-05-14 6.57 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1339 40.84% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1192 27.86% 31.30%
16 2006-07-13 6.37 @ Keflavik IF 6 1334 52.91% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1296 19.28% 27.81%
17 2006-06-12 6.16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1288 43.51% KR Reykjavik 0 1320 25.69% 30.81%
18 2006-05-28 6.11 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1193 15.29% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1293 60.57% 24.13%
19 2006-07-16 5.93 Valur Reykjavik 2 1358 14.19% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1478 63.02% 22.79%
20 2006-07-18 5.52 Breidablik 1 1254 19.48% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1289 52.56% 27.96%
21 2006-07-31 5.31 KR Reykjavik 2 1295 18.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1342 54.07% 27.32%
22 2006-05-20 5.22 KR Reykjavik 2 1318 19.36% @ IA Akranes 1 1355 52.77% 27.87%
23 2006-06-05 5.20 Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1341 22.03% @ IA Akranes 0 1345 48.53% 29.44%
24 2006-06-08 5.04 IA Akranes 1 1340 23.34% @ Keflavik IF 0 1330 46.64% 30.02%
25 2006-08-27 4.77 Valur Reykjavik 1 1372 25.96% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1337 43.16% 30.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-08-10 63.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1476 65.22% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1336 13.25% 21.53%
2 2006-08-20 62.2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1337 48.68% IA Akranes 3 1332 21.93% 29.39%
3 2006-09-23 59.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1379 55.51% KR Reykjavik 2 1321 17.82% 26.67%
4 2006-08-09 57.5 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1300 41.81% Keflavik IF 2 1345 27.05% 31.14%
5 2006-07-16 57.4 Valur Reykjavik 2 1358 14.19% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1478 63.02% 22.79%
6 2006-09-10 56.9 @ Breidablik 2 1255 36.82% IA Akranes 2 1335 31.45% 31.73%
7 2006-08-27 56.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1471 73.55% Breidablik 1 1253 9.96% 16.49%
8 2006-05-29 56.0 Grindavik 3 1283 23.95% @ Breidablik 2 1267 45.79% 30.26%
9 2006-07-17 56.0 IA Akranes 3 1331 25.68% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1299 43.52% 30.80%
10 2006-07-09 53.3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1359 61.31% Breidablik 1 1253 14.96% 23.74%
11 2006-09-23 53.2 @ Grindavik 1 1282 23.14% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1472 46.91% 29.94%
12 2006-06-11 53.1 @ Breidablik 1 1261 21.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1473 49.72% 29.04%
13 2006-09-10 53.0 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1257 21.20% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1469 49.78% 29.02%
14 2006-05-20 52.9 KR Reykjavik 2 1318 19.36% @ IA Akranes 1 1355 52.77% 27.87%
15 2006-07-31 52.8 KR Reykjavik 2 1295 18.61% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1342 54.07% 27.32%
16 2006-06-22 52.6 @ Breidablik 3 1260 36.22% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1344 32.02% 31.76%
17 2006-09-16 52.6 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1333 57.91% Breidablik 1 1255 16.58% 25.51%
18 2006-05-14 52.5 @ Grindavik 3 1282 37.46% IA Akranes 2 1358 30.86% 31.69%
19 2006-06-28 52.4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1340 53.86% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1295 18.73% 27.41%
20 2006-09-16 52.4 @ Keflavik IF 1 1345 43.38% Valur Reykjavik 1 1379 25.79% 30.83%
21 2006-08-20 52.3 @ Keflavik IF 2 1345 29.86% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1475 38.55% 31.59%
22 2006-09-10 52.3 @ Keflavik IF 1 1346 49.75% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1332 21.23% 29.03%
23 2006-08-10 52.1 @ IA Akranes 1 1332 42.32% Valur Reykjavik 1 1373 26.63% 31.04%
24 2006-08-24 52.0 @ Grindavik 1 1292 55.45% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1234 17.86% 26.70%
25 2006-06-29 51.4 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1302 40.10% Valur Reykjavik 1 1359 28.50% 31.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-09-16 26.0 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1469 75.59% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1230 9.19% 15.22%
2 2006-06-28 30.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1473 68.80% Grindavik 0 1301 11.80% 19.40%
3 2006-07-06 30.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1476 69.07% KR Reykjavik 0 1301 11.69% 19.24%
4 2006-07-31 31.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1364 58.16% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1284 16.45% 25.39%
5 2006-06-28 31.7 @ Keflavik IF 5 1324 55.76% Breidablik 0 1263 17.68% 26.55%
6 2006-09-16 32.3 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1313 51.12% Grindavik 0 1289 20.36% 28.53%
7 2006-08-24 33.0 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1304 53.46% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1262 18.96% 27.58%
8 2006-07-10 33.2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1340 62.80% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1221 14.29% 22.91%
9 2006-07-31 33.4 @ Keflavik IF 2 1340 53.68% Grindavik 0 1296 18.83% 27.48%
10 2006-06-15 33.5 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1314 61.43% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1207 14.90% 23.67%
11 2006-05-28 33.8 @ Keflavik IF 3 1324 47.63% KR Reykjavik 0 1326 22.64% 29.73%
12 2006-06-22 35.3 @ Grindavik 5 1287 44.01% KR Reykjavik 0 1316 25.29% 30.69%
13 2006-07-27 35.8 @ Breidablik 1 1259 53.18% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1219 19.12% 27.70%
14 2006-08-10 36.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1217 40.00% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1274 28.58% 31.42%
15 2006-06-12 36.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1288 43.51% KR Reykjavik 0 1320 25.69% 30.81%
16 2006-06-15 36.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1472 69.48% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1294 11.53% 18.99%
17 2006-05-14 36.6 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1339 40.84% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1192 27.86% 31.30%
18 2006-07-13 37.6 @ Keflavik IF 6 1334 52.91% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1296 19.28% 27.81%
19 2006-09-23 37.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1255 37.25% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1332 31.04% 31.70%
20 2006-05-19 38.2 @ Keflavik IF 2 1322 64.84% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1186 13.41% 21.75%
21 2006-05-14 38.7 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1448 37.07% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1328 31.21% 31.71%
22 2006-08-24 39.3 @ IA Akranes 1 1332 45.64% Keflavik IF 0 1349 24.06% 30.30%
23 2006-05-24 39.5 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1323 44.62% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1347 24.83% 30.55%
24 2006-05-25 40.1 Valur Reykjavik 3 1347 26.64% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1306 42.32% 31.05%
25 2006-05-20 40.4 @ Breidablik 4 1269 41.76% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1314 27.09% 31.15%