2007 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

38 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1987.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

8.49 points above expected

38 points · 29.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

6.22 points below expected

14 points · 20.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik Champion	18	11	5	2	38	41	20	+21	29.51	+8.49
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	18	11	4	3	37	42	26	+16	31.88	+5.12
3	IA Akranes	18	8	6	4	30	34	27	+7	25.25	+4.75
4	Fylkir Reykjavik	18	8	5	5	29	23	18	+5	25.12	+3.88
5	Breidablik	18	5	9	4	24	29	20	+9	25.01	-1.01
6	Keflavik IF	18	5	6	7	21	26	32	-6	25.38	-4.38
7	Fram Reykjavik	18	3	7	8	16	25	31	-6	19.82	-3.82
8	KR Reykjavik	18	3	7	8	16	17	30	-13	20.14	-4.14
9	HK Kopavogur	18	4	4	10	16	17	35	-18	18.38	-2.38
10	Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated	18	3	5	10	14	15	30	-15	20.22	-6.22

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valur Reykjavik	1490	38	29.51	+8.49	95.7%	11	21	26	30	33	38	50
FH Hafnarfjordur	1449	37	31.88	+5.12	85.6%	12	23	28	32	35	40	51
Breidablik	1395	24	25.01	-1.01	46.3%	8	17	22	25	28	33	46
Fylkir Reykjavik	1379	29	25.12	+3.88	80.3%	8	17	22	25	29	34	45
IA Akranes	1378	30	25.25	+4.75	83.9%	8	17	22	25	29	34	47
Keflavik IF	1278	21	25.38	-4.38	22.9%	9	17	22	25	29	34	45
Fram Reykjavik	1276	16	19.82	-3.82	25.4%	3	12	16	20	23	28	41
KR Reykjavik	1258	16	20.14	-4.14	23.9%	3	12	17	20	23	29	39
Vikingur Reykjavik	1217	14	20.22	-6.22	12.4%	4	12	17	20	24	29	42
HK Kopavogur	1197	16	18.38	-2.38	36.0%	3	11	15	18	22	27	42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRE	FH	FR	FR	HK	IA	KR	KI	VR	VR
Breidablik	—	1-0-1 1.90	0-1-1 3.44	1-0-1 2.61	1-1-0 3.57	1-0-1 2.67	0-2-0 2.94	1-1-0 2.46	0-2-0 2.22	0-2-0 3.10
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-0-1 3.46	—	1-1-0 3.93	1-1-0 3.44	1-1-0 3.80	1-1-0 3.21	2-0-0 3.92	2-0-0 3.12	0-0-2 3.02	2-0-0 4.00
Fram Reykjavik	1-1-0 1.91	0-1-1 1.50	—	1-1-0 1.98	1-0-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.05	0-1-1 2.83	0-1-1 2.14	0-1-1 1.93	0-0-2 2.71
Fylkir Reykjavik	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 1.91	0-1-1 3.36	—	2-0-0 3.47	1-1-0 2.54	0-2-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.16	2-0-0 2.89
HK Kopavogur	0-1-1 1.80	0-1-1 1.59	1-0-1 2.60	0-0-2 1.89	—	1-0-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.00	0-0-2 1.38	0-2-0 2.57
IA Akranes	1-0-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.13	1-1-0 3.29	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.23	—	1-1-0 3.14	1-1-0 2.89	1-1-0 2.00	2-0-0 3.22
KR Reykjavik	0-2-0 2.41	0-0-2 1.50	1-1-0 2.49	0-2-0 1.95	1-0-1 2.87	0-1-1 2.19	—	0-1-1 2.24	0-0-2 1.95	1-0-1 2.62
Keflavik IF	0-1-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.21	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.70	1-0-1 3.34	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 3.11	—	0-1-1 2.20	1-1-0 3.23
Valur Reykjavik	0-2-0 3.11	2-0-0 2.30	1-1-0 3.42	1-0-1 3.20	2-0-0 4.09	0-1-1 3.35	2-0-0 3.40	1-1-0 3.13	—	2-0-0 3.58
Vikingur Reykjavik	0-2-0 2.27	0-0-2 1.43	2-0-0 2.60	0-0-2 2.43	0-2-0 2.75	0-0-2 2.14	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.11	0-0-2 1.79	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.83	+8.5
Allowed	0.47	-10.6
Differential	0.89	+6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	3.89%	4.44%	1.11%	—	20.56%
1	5.56%	13.33%	9.44%	2.78%	2.22%	1.11%	34.44%
2	3.89%	9.44%	11.11%	1.67%	1.11%	—	27.22%
3	4.44%	2.78%	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	—	11.67%
4	1.11%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	5.00%
5+	—	1.11%	—	—	—	—	1.11%
Total	20.56%	34.44%	27.22%	11.67%	5.00%	1.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.49	1.49	+0.00
SD	1.16	1.16	1.70
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	38.89%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.11	+0.50
SD	1.20	0.90	1.47
CV	0.74	0.81	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	1.44	+0.89
SD	1.33	1.25	1.84
CV	0.57	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	—	44.44%
2	—	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	55.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.72	-0.33
SD	0.98	0.96	1.37
CV	0.70	0.56	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	44.44%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.00	+0.28
SD	1.18	1.08	1.60
CV	0.92	1.08	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.94	-1.00
SD	0.87	1.39	1.78
CV	0.92	0.72	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	44.44%	27.78%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.50	+0.39
SD	1.23	0.92	1.58
CV	0.65	0.62	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	66.67%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	33.33%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.67	-0.72
SD	0.73	1.19	1.41
CV	0.77	0.71	—
Max	3	5	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.78	-0.33
SD	0.92	1.17	1.61
CV	0.64	0.66	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	44.44%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.11	+1.17
SD	1.23	1.02	1.58
CV	0.54	0.92	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.67	-0.83
SD	0.79	1.41	1.54
CV	0.94	0.85	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik	38	29.51	+8.49
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	37	31.88	+5.12
3	IA Akranes	30	25.25	+4.75
4	Fylkir Reykjavik	29	25.12	+3.88
5	Breidablik	24	25.01	-1.01

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	14	20.22	-6.22
2	Keflavik IF	21	25.38	-4.38
3	KR Reykjavik	16	20.14	-4.14
4	Fram Reykjavik	16	19.82	-3.82
5	HK Kopavogur	16	18.38	-2.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fylkir Reykjavik	3	Jul 24 – Aug 16	1 in 68
2	IA Akranes	3	Jun 19 – Jul 4	1 in 41
3	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	May 12 – May 29	1 in 31
4	Valur Reykjavik	3	Jun 27 – Jul 16	1 in 17
5	Keflavik IF	3	Jun 14 – Jun 27	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KR Reykjavik	5	May 24 – Jun 20	1 in 113
2	Keflavik IF	4	Jul 28 – Aug 26	1 in 77
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	Jun 13 – Jul 3	1 in 33
4	HK Kopavogur	3	Aug 26 – Sep 16	1 in 13
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	Sep 16 – Sep 23	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	6	Aug 16 – Sep 29	1 in 31
2	IA Akranes	6	Jun 19 – Aug 9	1 in 12
3	KR Reykjavik	4	Jun 28 – Jul 25	1 in 11
4	Breidablik	5	May 20 – Jun 14	1 in 11
5	Keflavik IF	6	May 24 – Jun 27	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Keflavik IF	10	Jul 4 – Sep 29	1 in 76
2	KR Reykjavik	7	May 14 – Jun 20	1 in 13
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	4	Jun 18 – Jul 16	1 in 6
4	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	Aug 16 – Aug 19	1 in 6
5	Fram Reykjavik	6	May 13 – Jun 14	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valur Reykjavik	26.46%	24.96%	15.85%	11.82%	8.26%	5.22%	3.59%	2.18%	1.11%	0.55%
FH Hafnarfjordur	44.44%	22.78%	13.55%	8.23%	4.85%	3.01%	1.71%	0.88%	0.43%	0.12%
IA Akranes	6.96%	11.52%	14.63%	14.23%	14.06%	12.61%	10.17%	7.55%	5.50%	2.77%
Fylkir Reykjavik	6.84%	10.49%	14.35%	14.62%	13.65%	12.93%	10.72%	7.78%	5.53%	3.09%
Breidablik	5.76%	11.26%	13.78%	15.24%	15.18%	12.64%	9.81%	7.50%	5.59%	3.24%
Keflavik IF	6.31%	11.58%	13.80%	14.52%	14.57%	12.31%	10.34%	7.83%	5.69%	3.05%
Fram Reykjavik	0.80%	1.87%	3.63%	6.14%	7.80%	11.49%	13.91%	17.23%	18.28%	18.85%
KR Reykjavik	0.87%	2.36%	4.16%	5.80%	8.12%	11.08%	13.92%	16.50%	18.18%	19.01%
HK Kopavogur	0.44%	1.08%	2.25%	3.49%	5.18%	8.11%	11.50%	15.67%	21.58%	30.70%
Vikingur Reykjavik	1.12%	2.10%	4.00%	5.91%	8.33%	10.60%	14.33%	16.88%	18.11%	18.62%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+7.78%

Slight Edge

37.78%32.22%30.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.

148 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.12 goals

Neutral

-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.5

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

26%

Valur Reykjavik, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.07 * Some Luck: 4.07 to 6.11 * Lucky: 6.11 to 8.14 * Wild Swing: 8.14 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.53 * Close: 1.53 to 2.3 * Off: 2.3 to 3.06 * Way Off: 3.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.69 * A Surprise: 0.69 to 1.11 * Several Surprises: 1.11 to 1.52 * Many Surprises: 1.52 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.82 points

Some Luck

05.0913

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

Pinpoint

01.914

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

95.73%

Valur Reykjavik

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

12.38%

Vikingur Reykjavik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

A Surprise

00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.41

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

68%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

84%

Strong Edge

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

67%

Very Frequent

0%62%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Frequent

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.62

Hard to Predict

00.642

Matchup Imbalance

0.29

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.88

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.84

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Solid Favorites

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.

Probability calibration

0.10

Borderline

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.59

Very Underconfident

0.2283971.001.7716

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.197

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1780.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur	99.88%	0.12%
Valur Reykjavik	99.45%	0.55%
IA Akranes	97.23%	2.77%
Keflavik IF	96.95%	3.05%
Fylkir Reykjavik	96.91%	3.09%
Breidablik	96.76%	3.24%
Vikingur Reykjavik	81.38%	18.62%
Fram Reykjavik	81.15%	18.85%
KR Reykjavik	80.99%	19.01%
HK Kopavogur	69.30%	30.70%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2007-05-12	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 2-3	1341	1392	29.6%	34.1%	36.3%	-9.2	0
2007-05-12	@ IA Akranes	W 3-2	1392	1341	36.3%	34.1%	29.6%	+9.2	3
2007-05-13	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1357	1306	43.7%	33.1%	23.1%	-1.3	1
2007-05-13	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1306	1357	23.1%	33.1%	43.7%	+1.3	1
2007-05-13	Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-1	1310	1335	33.2%	34.2%	32.6%	-11.2	0
2007-05-13	@ Breidablik	W 1-0	1335	1310	32.6%	34.2%	33.2%	+11.2	3
2007-05-13	HK Kopavogur	D 0-0	1303	1297	37.6%	34.0%	28.4%	-0.6	1
2007-05-13	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1297	1303	28.4%	34.0%	37.6%	+0.6	1
2007-05-14	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1333	1342	35.5%	34.1%	30.4%	-11.0	0
2007-05-14	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1342	1333	30.4%	34.1%	35.5%	+11.0	3
2007-05-20	Breidablik	D 1-1	1322	1299	40.0%	33.8%	26.3%	-0.8	1
2007-05-20	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1299	1322	26.3%	33.8%	40.0%	+0.8	1
2007-05-20	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1353	1401	30.1%	34.1%	35.8%	-9.9	3
2007-05-20	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1401	1353	35.8%	34.1%	30.1%	+9.9	6
2007-05-20	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1346	1356	35.4%	34.1%	30.5%	-11.0	3
2007-05-20	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	W 2-1	1356	1346	30.5%	34.1%	35.4%	+11.0	4
2007-05-20	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1307	1302	37.4%	34.0%	28.5%	-22.8	1
2007-05-20	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1302	1307	28.5%	34.0%	37.4%	+22.8	4
2007-05-21	IA Akranes	W 1-0	1297	1332	31.9%	34.2%	33.9%	+11.3	4
2007-05-21	@ HK Kopavogur	L 0-1	1332	1297	33.9%	34.2%	31.9%	-11.3	0
2007-05-24	Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1320	1284	41.7%	33.5%	24.8%	-0.8	1
2007-05-24	@ IA Akranes	D 2-2	1284	1320	24.8%	33.5%	41.7%	+0.8	2
2007-05-24	Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-1	1325	1335	35.3%	34.1%	30.5%	-11.6	4
2007-05-24	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1335	1325	30.5%	34.1%	35.3%	+11.6	6
2007-05-24	HK Kopavogur	W 4-0	1411	1309	50.0%	31.5%	18.5%	+25.6	9
2007-05-24	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-4	1309	1411	18.5%	31.5%	50.0%	-25.6	4
2007-05-24	Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1300	1344	30.6%	34.1%	35.3%	+0.2	2
2007-05-24	@ Breidablik	D 2-2	1344	1300	35.3%	34.1%	30.6%	-0.2	4
2007-05-24	KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1367	1321	43.0%	33.3%	23.8%	+8.3	7
2007-05-24	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1321	1367	23.8%	33.3%	43.0%	-8.3	1
2007-05-28	HK Kopavogur	W 3-0	1343	1283	44.9%	32.9%	22.2%	+22.9	7
2007-05-28	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-3	1283	1343	22.2%	32.9%	44.9%	-22.9	4
2007-05-28	IA Akranes	D 2-2	1347	1319	40.5%	33.7%	25.8%	-0.7	7
2007-05-28	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	D 2-2	1319	1347	25.8%	33.7%	40.5%	+0.7	2
2007-05-28	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1300	1375	26.5%	33.8%	39.7%	+0.9	3
2007-05-28	@ Breidablik	D 0-0	1375	1300	39.7%	33.8%	26.5%	-0.9	8
2007-05-28	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1313	1313	36.7%	34.1%	29.2%	-11.3	1
2007-05-28	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1313	1313	29.2%	34.1%	36.7%	+11.3	7
2007-05-29	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-2	1285	1436	18.9%	31.7%	49.5%	-13.7	2
2007-05-29	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1436	1285	49.5%	31.7%	18.9%	+13.7	12
2007-06-08	Breidablik	D 1-1	1325	1301	40.0%	33.8%	26.2%	-0.8	8
2007-06-08	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1301	1325	26.2%	33.8%	40.0%	+0.8	4
2007-06-09	Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1374	1366	37.9%	34.0%	28.1%	-0.4	9
2007-06-09	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1366	1374	28.1%	34.0%	37.9%	+0.4	8
2007-06-10	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1260	1271	35.2%	34.1%	30.6%	+10.0	7
2007-06-10	@ HK Kopavogur	L 1-2	1271	1260	30.6%	34.1%	35.2%	-10.0	2
2007-06-10	Fylkir Reykjavik	D 0-0	1450	1346	50.3%	31.4%	18.3%	-2.3	13
2007-06-10	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	1346	1450	18.3%	31.4%	50.3%	+2.3	8
2007-06-10	KR Reykjavik	W 3-1	1320	1302	39.3%	33.8%	26.9%	+15.8	5
2007-06-10	@ IA Akranes	L 1-3	1302	1320	26.9%	33.8%	39.3%	-15.8	1
2007-06-13	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1374	1324	43.5%	33.2%	23.3%	+14.2	12
2007-06-13	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1324	1374	23.3%	33.2%	43.5%	-14.1	8
2007-06-14	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-2	1286	1448	18.0%	31.3%	50.7%	-13.2	1
2007-06-14	@ KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	1448	1286	50.7%	31.3%	18.0%	+13.2	16
2007-06-14	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1367	1261	50.4%	31.4%	18.2%	+6.7	11
2007-06-14	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1261	1367	18.2%	31.4%	50.4%	-6.7	2
2007-06-14	HK Kopavogur	W 1-0	1348	1270	47.1%	32.4%	20.5%	+7.8	11
2007-06-14	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-1	1270	1348	20.5%	32.4%	47.1%	-7.8	7
2007-06-14	IA Akranes	W 3-0	1302	1336	31.9%	34.2%	33.9%	+31.0	7
2007-06-14	@ Breidablik	L 0-3	1336	1302	33.9%	34.2%	31.9%	-31.0	5
2007-06-18	Fylkir Reykjavik	W 3-1	1255	1356	23.5%	33.2%	43.2%	+21.9	5
2007-06-18	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	1356	1255	43.2%	33.2%	23.5%	-22.0	11
2007-06-19	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1305	1388	25.6%	33.7%	40.8%	+12.1	8
2007-06-19	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1388	1305	40.8%	33.7%	25.6%	-12.1	12
2007-06-20	Breidablik	W 2-1	1461	1333	53.1%	30.4%	16.5%	+6.1	19
2007-06-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1333	1461	16.5%	30.4%	53.1%	-6.1	7
2007-06-20	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1310	1373	28.0%	34.0%	38.1%	-9.4	8
2007-06-20	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1373	1310	38.1%	34.0%	28.0%	+9.4	14
2007-06-20	KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	1262	1273	35.3%	34.1%	30.6%	+19.9	10
2007-06-20	@ HK Kopavogur	L 0-2	1273	1262	30.6%	34.1%	35.3%	-19.9	1
2007-06-26	HK Kopavogur	W 3-0	1327	1282	42.8%	33.3%	23.9%	+24.2	10
2007-06-26	@ Breidablik	L 0-3	1282	1327	23.9%	33.3%	42.8%	-24.2	10
2007-06-26	IA Akranes	L 0-3	1300	1317	34.4%	34.2%	31.4%	-31.3	8
2007-06-26	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1317	1300	31.4%	34.2%	34.4%	+31.3	11
2007-06-27	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 4-1	1376	1467	24.7%	33.5%	41.8%	+30.3	15
2007-06-27	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-4	1467	1376	41.8%	33.5%	24.7%	-30.3	19
2007-06-27	Fylkir Reykjavik	W 1-0	1383	1334	43.3%	33.2%	23.4%	+8.7	17
2007-06-27	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1334	1383	23.4%	33.2%	43.3%	-8.7	11
2007-06-28	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1253	1277	33.4%	34.2%	32.4%	+10.4	4
2007-06-28	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	1277	1253	32.4%	34.2%	33.4%	-10.3	5
2007-07-03	Breidablik	W 1-0	1266	1351	25.4%	33.6%	40.9%	+12.9	8
2007-07-03	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	1351	1266	40.9%	33.6%	25.4%	-12.9	10
2007-07-03	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-1	1437	1269	57.5%	28.4%	14.0%	+12.6	22
2007-07-03	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-4	1269	1437	14.0%	28.4%	57.5%	-12.6	8
2007-07-04	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1348	1391	30.7%	34.1%	35.2%	+11.0	14
2007-07-04	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1391	1348	35.2%	34.1%	30.7%	-10.9	17
2007-07-04	KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	1326	1263	45.1%	32.9%	22.0%	-1.6	12
2007-07-04	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	D 0-0	1263	1326	22.0%	32.9%	45.1%	+1.6	5
2007-07-04	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-4	1258	1406	19.1%	31.8%	49.1%	-17.0	10
2007-07-04	@ HK Kopavogur	W 4-1	1406	1258	49.1%	31.8%	19.1%	+17.0	18
2007-07-14	IA Akranes	D 1-1	1449	1359	48.6%	31.9%	19.5%	-1.9	23
2007-07-14	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	1359	1449	19.5%	31.9%	48.6%	+1.9	15
2007-07-15	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1380	1265	51.6%	30.9%	17.4%	-2.2	18
2007-07-15	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1265	1380	17.4%	30.9%	51.6%	+2.2	6
2007-07-16	Breidablik	L 0-3	1324	1338	34.8%	34.2%	31.1%	-31.5	12
2007-07-16	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	W 3-0	1338	1324	31.1%	34.2%	34.8%	+31.5	13
2007-07-16	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1279	1423	19.5%	31.9%	48.6%	-14.1	8
2007-07-16	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1423	1279	48.6%	31.9%	19.5%	+14.1	21
2007-07-16	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1241	1256	34.6%	34.2%	31.2%	-0.1	11
2007-07-16	@ HK Kopavogur	D 2-2	1256	1241	31.2%	34.2%	34.6%	+0.1	9
2007-07-24	Fylkir Reykjavik	L 2-4	1437	1292	55.0%	29.6%	15.4%	-23.6	21
2007-07-24	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 4-2	1292	1437	15.4%	29.6%	55.0%	+23.6	15
2007-07-25	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1257	1265	35.6%	34.1%	30.3%	+9.9	12
2007-07-25	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1265	1257	30.3%	34.1%	35.6%	-9.9	8
2007-07-25	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1369	1267	50.1%	31.5%	18.4%	-2.0	14
2007-07-25	@ Breidablik	D 1-1	1267	1369	18.4%	31.5%	50.1%	+2.0	7
2007-07-26	HK Kopavogur	W 4-1	1361	1241	52.2%	30.7%	17.1%	+15.4	18
2007-07-26	@ IA Akranes	L 1-4	1241	1361	17.1%	30.7%	52.2%	-15.4	11
2007-07-28	Keflavik IF	W 3-2	1447	1378	46.0%	32.6%	21.4%	+7.2	26
2007-07-28	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 2-3	1378	1447	21.4%	32.6%	46.0%	-7.2	18
2007-08-08	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1269	1414	19.4%	31.9%	48.6%	-20.5	7
2007-08-08	@ KR Reykjavik	W 3-0	1414	1269	48.6%	31.9%	19.4%	+20.5	24
2007-08-09	Breidablik	L 0-3	1371	1367	37.3%	34.0%	28.7%	-33.1	18
2007-08-09	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-0	1367	1371	28.7%	34.0%	37.3%	+33.1	17
2007-08-09	IA Akranes	L 2-4	1255	1376	21.5%	32.7%	45.8%	-11.9	8
2007-08-09	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 4-2	1376	1255	45.8%	32.7%	21.5%	+11.9	21
2007-08-09	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1316	1266	43.5%	33.2%	23.3%	+8.7	18
2007-08-09	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-1	1266	1316	23.3%	33.2%	43.5%	-8.7	12
2007-08-16	Breidablik	D 2-2	1434	1400	41.4%	33.6%	25.1%	-0.8	25
2007-08-16	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1400	1434	25.1%	33.6%	41.4%	+0.7	18
2007-08-16	Fram Reykjavik	D 3-3	1455	1243	62.2%	26.0%	11.8%	-2.1	27
2007-08-16	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 3-3	1243	1455	11.8%	26.0%	62.2%	+2.1	9
2007-08-16	Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-2	1388	1325	45.3%	32.8%	21.9%	-26.3	21
2007-08-16	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	1325	1388	21.9%	32.8%	45.3%	+26.3	21
2007-08-16	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1226	1338	22.4%	33.0%	44.6%	+13.0	14
2007-08-16	@ HK Kopavogur	L 1-2	1338	1226	44.6%	33.0%	22.4%	-13.0	18
2007-08-16	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1258	1249	38.0%	34.0%	28.0%	-12.2	12
2007-08-16	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1249	1258	28.0%	34.0%	38.0%	+12.2	10
2007-08-19	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	1239	1453	14.5%	28.8%	56.7%	+2.1	15
2007-08-19	@ HK Kopavogur	D 2-2	1453	1239	56.7%	28.8%	14.5%	-2.1	28
2007-08-26	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1351	1450	23.8%	33.3%	42.9%	-8.3	21
2007-08-26	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	W 2-1	1450	1351	42.9%	33.3%	23.8%	+8.3	31
2007-08-26	HK Kopavogur	W 3-0	1245	1241	37.4%	34.0%	28.6%	+27.6	12
2007-08-26	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	1241	1245	28.6%	34.0%	37.4%	-27.6	15
2007-08-26	IA Akranes	D 1-1	1261	1362	23.6%	33.3%	43.1%	+1.2	11
2007-08-26	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1362	1261	43.1%	33.3%	23.6%	-1.2	22
2007-08-26	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1325	1434	22.8%	33.1%	44.1%	-13.9	18
2007-08-26	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-1	1434	1325	44.1%	33.1%	22.8%	+14.0	28
2007-08-26	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1401	1246	56.2%	29.0%	14.7%	-2.8	19
2007-08-26	@ Breidablik	D 1-1	1246	1401	14.7%	29.0%	56.2%	+2.8	13
2007-08-30	Breidablik	W 2-1	1361	1398	31.4%	34.2%	34.4%	+10.8	25
2007-08-30	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1398	1361	34.4%	34.2%	31.4%	-10.8	19
2007-08-30	Fylkir Reykjavik	L 1-2	1213	1343	20.8%	32.5%	46.8%	-7.5	15
2007-08-30	@ HK Kopavogur	W 2-1	1343	1213	46.8%	32.5%	20.8%	+7.5	24
2007-08-30	Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1273	1311	31.4%	34.2%	34.5%	+0.1	13
2007-08-30	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1311	1273	34.5%	34.2%	31.4%	-0.1	19
2007-08-30	KR Reykjavik	W 5-1	1459	1262	60.6%	26.9%	12.5%	+14.3	34
2007-08-30	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-5	1262	1459	12.5%	26.9%	60.6%	-14.3	11
2007-09-02	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-5	1248	1448	15.4%	29.6%	55.0%	-17.9	13
2007-09-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 5-1	1448	1248	55.0%	29.6%	15.4%	+17.9	31
2007-09-16	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 4-3	1388	1473	25.3%	33.6%	41.0%	+11.3	22
2007-09-16	@ Breidablik	L 3-4	1473	1388	41.0%	33.6%	25.3%	-11.3	34
2007-09-16	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1350	1273	47.0%	32.4%	20.6%	-1.7	25
2007-09-16	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	D 1-1	1273	1350	20.6%	32.4%	47.0%	+1.7	14
2007-09-16	HK Kopavogur	W 3-2	1248	1206	42.5%	33.4%	24.1%	+8.0	14
2007-09-16	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1206	1248	24.1%	33.4%	42.5%	-8.0	15
2007-09-16	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1311	1230	47.4%	32.3%	20.3%	-1.9	20
2007-09-16	@ Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1230	1311	20.3%	32.3%	47.4%	+1.9	14
2007-09-17	IA Akranes	D 2-2	1465	1372	49.0%	31.8%	19.2%	-1.4	32
2007-09-17	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1372	1465	19.2%	31.8%	49.0%	+1.4	26
2007-09-23	Breidablik	D 1-1	1198	1399	15.2%	29.5%	55.3%	+2.7	16
2007-09-23	@ HK Kopavogur	D 1-1	1399	1198	55.3%	29.5%	15.2%	-2.7	23
2007-09-23	Keflavik IF	W 4-0	1348	1309	42.1%	33.4%	24.4%	+32.2	28
2007-09-23	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	L 0-4	1309	1348	24.4%	33.4%	42.1%	-32.2	20
2007-09-23	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1275	1256	39.4%	33.8%	26.8%	-0.8	15
2007-09-23	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1256	1275	26.8%	33.8%	39.4%	+0.8	15
2007-09-23	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1462	1464	36.4%	34.1%	29.5%	-22.4	34
2007-09-23	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1464	1462	29.5%	34.1%	36.4%	+22.4	35
2007-09-23	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1373	1232	54.5%	29.8%	15.7%	+6.1	29
2007-09-23	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1232	1373	15.7%	29.8%	54.5%	-6.1	14
2007-09-29	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-3	1226	1439	14.5%	28.9%	56.6%	-9.2	14
2007-09-29	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1439	1226	56.6%	28.9%	14.5%	+9.2	37
2007-09-29	Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1396	1274	52.4%	30.6%	16.9%	-1.7	24
2007-09-29	@ Breidablik	D 2-2	1274	1396	16.9%	30.6%	52.4%	+1.7	16
2007-09-29	Fylkir Reykjavik	D 1-1	1257	1381	21.3%	32.6%	46.1%	+1.6	16
2007-09-29	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1381	1257	46.1%	32.6%	21.3%	-1.6	29
2007-09-29	HK Kopavogur	W 1-0	1486	1200	69.4%	21.7%	8.9%	+3.1	38
2007-09-29	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1200	1486	8.9%	21.7%	69.4%	-3.1	16
2007-09-29	IA Akranes	D 3-3	1277	1379	23.5%	33.2%	43.3%	+0.8	21
2007-09-29	@ Keflavik IF	D 3-3	1379	1277	43.3%	33.2%	23.5%	-0.8	30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2007-07-24	15.39%	Fylkir Reykjavik	1292	4	@ Valur Reykjavik	1437	2
2	2007-08-16	21.89%	Fylkir Reykjavik	1325	2	@ IA Akranes	1388	0
3	2007-08-16	22.43%	@ HK Kopavogur	1226	2	Keflavik IF	1338	1
4	2007-06-18	23.55%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1255	3	Fylkir Reykjavik	1356	1
5	2007-06-27	24.71%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1376	4	FH Hafnarfjordur	1467	1
6	2007-09-16	25.34%	@ Breidablik	1388	4	FH Hafnarfjordur	1473	3
7	2007-07-03	25.43%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1266	1	Breidablik	1351	0
8	2007-06-19	25.59%	@ IA Akranes	1305	2	Valur Reykjavik	1388	1
9	2007-08-16	28.02%	KR Reykjavik	1249	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1258	0
10	2007-05-20	28.55%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1302	2	@ Fram Reykjavik	1307	0
11	2007-08-09	28.72%	Breidablik	1367	3	@ Keflavik IF	1371	0
12	2007-05-28	29.22%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1313	2	@ KR Reykjavik	1313	1
13	2007-09-23	29.47%	Valur Reykjavik	1464	2	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1462	0
14	2007-05-14	30.40%	Keflavik IF	1342	2	@ KR Reykjavik	1333	1
15	2007-05-20	30.51%	Valur Reykjavik	1356	2	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	1346	1
16	2007-05-24	30.53%	Fylkir Reykjavik	1335	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1325	0
17	2007-07-04	30.66%	@ IA Akranes	1348	2	Keflavik IF	1391	1
18	2007-07-16	31.06%	Breidablik	1338	3	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	1324	0
19	2007-08-30	31.43%	@ IA Akranes	1361	2	Breidablik	1398	1
20	2007-06-26	31.44%	IA Akranes	1317	3	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1300	0
21	2007-06-14	31.89%	@ Breidablik	1302	3	IA Akranes	1336	0
22	2007-05-21	31.90%	@ HK Kopavogur	1297	1	IA Akranes	1332	0
23	2007-05-13	32.59%	Fylkir Reykjavik	1335	1	@ Breidablik	1310	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2007-08-09	33.07	Breidablik	3	1367	28.72%	@ Keflavik IF	0	1371	37.26%	34.02%
2	2007-09-23	32.18	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	4	1348	42.15%	Keflavik IF	0	1309	24.41%	33.44%
3	2007-07-16	31.54	Breidablik	3	1338	31.06%	@ Fylkir Reykjavik	0	1324	34.78%	34.16%
4	2007-06-26	31.29	IA Akranes	3	1317	31.44%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1300	34.39%	34.17%
5	2007-06-14	31.01	@ Breidablik	3	1302	31.89%	IA Akranes	0	1336	33.93%	34.18%
6	2007-06-27	30.28	@ Valur Reykjavik	4	1376	24.71%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1	1467	41.79%	33.50%
7	2007-08-26	27.62	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1245	37.41%	HK Kopavogur	0	1241	28.58%	34.01%
8	2007-08-16	26.27	Fylkir Reykjavik	2	1325	21.89%	@ IA Akranes	0	1388	45.29%	32.81%
9	2007-05-24	25.60	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	4	1411	50.03%	HK Kopavogur	0	1309	18.48%	31.49%
10	2007-06-26	24.23	@ Breidablik	3	1327	42.78%	HK Kopavogur	0	1282	23.89%	33.33%
11	2007-07-24	23.64	Fylkir Reykjavik	4	1292	15.39%	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1437	55.03%	29.58%
12	2007-05-28	22.91	@ Keflavik IF	3	1343	44.85%	HK Kopavogur	0	1283	22.24%	32.91%
13	2007-05-20	22.85	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	1302	28.55%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1307	37.44%	34.01%
14	2007-09-23	22.42	Valur Reykjavik	2	1464	29.47%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1462	36.45%	34.08%
15	2007-06-18	21.95	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1255	23.55%	Fylkir Reykjavik	1	1356	43.20%	33.25%
16	2007-08-08	20.49	Valur Reykjavik	3	1414	48.64%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	1269	19.43%	31.93%
17	2007-06-20	19.93	@ HK Kopavogur	2	1262	35.28%	KR Reykjavik	0	1273	30.59%	34.14%
18	2007-09-02	17.91	Valur Reykjavik	5	1448	55.03%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1248	15.39%	29.58%
19	2007-07-04	17.04	Valur Reykjavik	4	1406	49.08%	@ HK Kopavogur	1	1258	19.13%	31.79%
20	2007-06-10	15.77	@ IA Akranes	3	1320	39.29%	KR Reykjavik	1	1302	26.88%	33.84%
21	2007-07-26	15.37	@ IA Akranes	4	1361	52.19%	HK Kopavogur	1	1241	17.08%	30.73%
22	2007-08-30	14.31	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	5	1459	60.61%	KR Reykjavik	1	1262	12.51%	26.88%
23	2007-06-13	14.15	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	1374	43.55%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1324	23.26%	33.18%
24	2007-07-16	14.13	Valur Reykjavik	2	1423	48.59%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1279	19.47%	31.94%
25	2007-08-26	13.95	Valur Reykjavik	3	1434	44.11%	@ Keflavik IF	1	1325	22.82%	33.07%