Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 2007
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2007 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

38 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

10.01 points above expected

38 points · 27.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

6.84 points below expected

14 points · 20.84 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 18 11 5 2 38 41 20 +21 28.0 +10.01
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 11 4 3 37 42 26 +16 30.8 +6.21
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 34 27 +7 24.4 +5.64
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 23 18 +5 24.1 +4.86
5 Breidablik 18 5 9 4 24 29 20 +9 23.3 +0.68
6 Keflavik IF 18 5 6 7 21 26 32 -6 24.9 -3.86
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 3 7 8 16 25 31 -6 20.4 -4.39
8 KR Reykjavik 18 3 7 8 16 17 30 -13 21.2 -5.22
9 HK Kopavogur 18 4 4 10 16 17 35 -18 19.1 -3.08
10 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 3 5 10 14 15 30 -15 20.8 -6.84

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1439 38 27.99 +10.01 98.1% 9 20 25 28 31 36 45
FH Hafnarfjordur 1430 37 30.79 +6.21 89.8% 12 22 27 31 34 39 52
IA Akranes 1360 30 24.36 +5.64 88.3% 8 16 21 24 28 33 45
Breidablik 1358 24 23.32 +0.68 60.0% 6 15 20 23 27 32 44
Fylkir Reykjavik 1357 29 24.14 +4.86 85.3% 5 16 21 24 28 33 44
Keflavik IF 1308 21 24.86 -3.86 25.4% 9 17 21 25 28 33 43
Fram Reykjavik 1286 16 20.39 -4.39 21.6% 4 13 17 20 24 29 40
KR Reykjavik 1284 16 21.22 -5.22 17.5% 4 13 18 21 25 30 39
Vikingur Reykjavik 1256 14 20.84 -6.84 9.7% 4 13 17 21 24 29 42
HK Kopavogur 1237 16 19.08 -3.08 30.9% 4 11 16 19 22 27 37

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR HK IA KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.22
1-0-1
2.50
0-2-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.35
0-2-0
2.18
0-2-0
2.89
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
3.43
 —
1-1-0
3.76
1-1-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.71
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.92
2-0-0
3.81
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.17
0-1-1
1.71
 —
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
2.60
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.70
0-1-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.09
 —
2-0-0
3.20
1-1-0
2.52
0-2-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.23
2-0-0
2.79
HK Kopavogur
0-1-1
2.06
0-1-1
1.74
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.07
 —
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.07
0-0-2
1.65
0-2-0
2.47
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
3.05
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.09
 —
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.14
2-0-0
3.04
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-2
1.76
1-1-0
2.58
0-2-0
2.18
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.30
 —
0-1-1
2.31
0-0-2
2.10
1-0-1
2.63
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
3.20
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.95
 —
0-1-1
2.28
1-1-0
3.07
Valur Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.05
2-0-0
2.28
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.86
0-1-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.92
 —
2-0-0
3.36
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.40
0-0-2
1.68
2-0-0
2.59
0-0-2
2.42
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.24
1-0-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.96
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%3.89%4.44%1.11%—20.56%
15.56%13.33%9.44%2.78%2.22%1.11%34.44%
23.89%9.44%11.11%1.67%1.11%—27.22%
34.44%2.78%1.67%2.22%0.56%—11.67%
41.11%2.22%1.11%0.56%——5.00%
5+—1.11%————1.11%
Total20.56%34.44%27.22%11.67%5.00%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.49
Mean allowed1.49
StdDev scored1.16
StdDev allowed1.16
Mean total goals/game2.99
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.081
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—27.78%11.11%———38.89%
2——16.67%———16.67%
322.22%—————22.22%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Breidablik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.61
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.20
StdDev allowed0.90
Mean total goals/game2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.043
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

FH Hafnarfjordur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.33
Mean allowed1.44
StdDev scored1.33
StdDev allowed1.25
Mean total goals/game3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.024
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%———16.67%
15.56%16.67%22.22%———44.44%
2——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%55.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.72
StdDev scored0.98
StdDev allowed0.96
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.003
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
122.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%——50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%11.11%——100%

Fylkir Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed1.00
StdDev scored1.18
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game2.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.000
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—16.67%5.56%—38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%—100%

HK Kopavogur — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.94
Mean allowed1.94
StdDev scored0.87
StdDev allowed1.39
Mean total goals/game2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.196
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%16.67%——100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.89
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.23
StdDev allowed0.92
Mean total goals/game3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.052
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%33.33%16.67%5.56%—5.56%66.67%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.94
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored0.73
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.023
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
2—16.67%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%—100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.44
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored0.92
StdDev allowed1.17
Mean total goals/game3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.176
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%11.11%16.67%—5.56%—44.44%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.28
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored1.23
StdDev allowed1.02
Mean total goals/game3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.021
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%—5.56%——38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Vikingur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.83
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored0.79
StdDev allowed1.41
Mean total goals/game2.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.106
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 38 28.0 +10.01
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 30.8 +6.21
3 IA Akranes 30 24.4 +5.64
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 24.1 +4.86
5 Breidablik 24 23.3 +0.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 14 20.8 -6.84
2 KR Reykjavik 16 21.2 -5.22
3 Fram Reykjavik 16 20.4 -4.39
4 Keflavik IF 21 24.9 -3.86
5 HK Kopavogur 16 19.1 -3.08

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 Jul 24 – Aug 16 1 in 56
2 IA Akranes 3 Jun 19 – Jul 4 1 in 48
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 12 – May 29 1 in 40
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 16 1 in 22
5 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 14 – Jun 27 1 in 17

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 5 May 24 – Jun 20 1 in 213
2 Keflavik IF 4 Jul 28 – Aug 26 1 in 115
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jun 13 – Jul 3 1 in 46
4 HK Kopavogur 3 Aug 26 – Sep 16 1 in 19
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Sep 16 – Sep 23 1 in 18

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 6 Aug 16 – Sep 29 1 in 23
2 IA Akranes 6 Jun 19 – Aug 9 1 in 10
3 Breidablik 5 May 20 – Jun 14 1 in 8
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 28 – Jul 25 1 in 7
5 Valur Reykjavik 7 Aug 8 – Sep 29 1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 10 Jul 4 – Sep 29 1 in 55
2 KR Reykjavik 7 May 14 – Jun 20 1 in 11
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Aug 9 – Sep 29 1 in 6
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 16 – Aug 19 1 in 6
5 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 13 – Jun 14 1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik23.03%22.89%15.75%12.48%8.71%6.27%4.50%3.17%2.00%1.20%
FH Hafnarfjordur44.91%21.74%12.40%7.75%5.15%3.46%2.40%1.27%0.71%0.21%
IA Akranes7.32%10.71%13.23%13.81%12.51%12.07%10.36%8.89%6.71%4.39%
Fylkir Reykjavik6.44%10.83%13.06%12.80%12.87%12.23%10.67%8.99%7.17%4.94%
Breidablik4.71%8.86%11.59%12.15%12.87%12.87%11.47%10.29%8.78%6.41%
Keflavik IF7.77%11.83%13.39%13.62%13.05%11.76%10.27%8.65%5.71%3.95%
Fram Reykjavik1.43%3.31%5.28%7.11%9.07%10.91%12.70%15.10%17.51%17.58%
KR Reykjavik1.97%4.12%6.33%7.77%10.00%11.16%13.43%14.80%15.27%15.15%
HK Kopavogur0.71%1.75%3.33%5.05%6.58%8.23%11.48%14.48%19.57%28.82%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.71%3.96%5.64%7.46%9.19%11.04%12.72%14.36%16.57%17.35%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.8% 0.2%
Valur Reykjavik 98.8% 1.2%
Keflavik IF 96.0% 4.0%
IA Akranes 95.6% 4.4%
Fylkir Reykjavik 95.1% 4.9%
Breidablik 93.6% 6.4%
KR Reykjavik 84.9% 15.2%
Vikingur Reykjavik 82.7% 17.3%
Fram Reykjavik 82.4% 17.6%
HK Kopavogur 71.2% 28.8%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2007-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1337 1392 25.9% 40.5% 33.7% -4.8 0
2007-05-12 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1392 1337 33.7% 40.5% 25.9% +4.8 3
2007-05-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1309 1332 30.0% 41.1% 28.8% -5.9 0
2007-05-13 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1332 1309 28.8% 41.1% 30.0% +5.9 3
2007-05-13 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1358 1308 42.2% 36.0% 21.9% -0.7 1
2007-05-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1308 1358 21.9% 36.0% 42.2% +0.7 1
2007-05-13 HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1308 1296 35.4% 39.8% 24.8% -0.4 1
2007-05-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1296 1308 24.8% 39.8% 35.4% +0.4 1
2007-05-14 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1332 1344 31.6% 41.0% 27.4% -5.8 0
2007-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1344 1332 27.4% 41.0% 31.6% +5.8 3
2007-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1308 1308 33.6% 40.5% 25.9% -11.9 1
2007-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1308 1308 25.9% 40.5% 33.6% +11.9 4
2007-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1338 1358 30.5% 41.1% 28.4% -5.6 3
2007-05-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1358 1338 28.4% 41.1% 30.5% +5.6 4
2007-05-20 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1350 1397 26.9% 40.8% 32.3% -5.2 3
2007-05-20 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1397 1350 32.3% 40.8% 26.9% +5.2 6
2007-05-20 Breidablik D 1-1 1326 1303 37.3% 38.9% 23.8% -0.4 1
2007-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1303 1326 23.8% 38.9% 37.3% +0.4 1
2007-05-21 IA Akranes W 1-0 1296 1332 28.2% 41.1% 30.6% +6.0 4
2007-05-21 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1332 1296 30.6% 41.1% 28.2% -6.0 0
2007-05-24 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1304 1345 27.5% 41.0% 31.5% +0.1 2
2007-05-24 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1345 1304 31.5% 41.0% 27.5% -0.1 4
2007-05-24 HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1402 1302 51.3% 28.8% 19.9% +13.6 9
2007-05-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1302 1402 19.9% 28.8% 51.3% -13.6 4
2007-05-24 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1326 1296 38.4% 38.3% 23.2% -0.4 1
2007-05-24 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1296 1326 23.2% 38.3% 38.4% +0.4 2
2007-05-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1363 1326 39.8% 37.5% 22.7% +4.5 7
2007-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1326 1363 22.7% 37.5% 39.8% -4.5 1
2007-05-24 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1320 1332 31.6% 41.0% 27.5% -6.1 4
2007-05-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1332 1320 27.5% 41.0% 31.6% +6.1 6
2007-05-28 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1304 1368 24.9% 39.9% 35.1% +0.4 3
2007-05-28 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1368 1304 35.1% 39.9% 24.9% -0.4 8
2007-05-28 IA Akranes D 2-2 1338 1326 35.6% 39.8% 24.7% -0.3 7
2007-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1326 1338 24.7% 39.8% 35.6% +0.3 2
2007-05-28 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1345 1289 43.1% 35.3% 21.6% +12.2 7
2007-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1289 1345 21.6% 35.3% 43.1% -12.2 4
2007-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1321 1313 34.8% 40.1% 25.1% -6.1 1
2007-05-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1313 1321 25.1% 40.1% 34.8% +6.1 7
2007-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1297 1415 21.2% 34.1% 44.7% -8.2 2
2007-05-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1415 1297 44.7% 34.1% 21.2% +8.2 12
2007-06-08 Breidablik D 1-1 1319 1304 36.0% 39.5% 24.4% -0.4 8
2007-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1304 1319 24.4% 39.5% 36.0% +0.4 4
2007-06-09 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1367 1357 35.2% 39.9% 24.9% -0.2 9
2007-06-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1357 1367 24.9% 39.9% 35.2% +0.2 8
2007-06-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1424 1338 48.6% 31.0% 20.3% -1.1 13
2007-06-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1338 1424 20.3% 31.0% 48.6% +1.1 8
2007-06-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1277 1289 31.7% 41.0% 27.4% +5.3 7
2007-06-10 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1289 1277 27.4% 41.0% 31.7% -5.3 2
2007-06-10 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1326 1315 35.2% 39.9% 24.9% +8.5 5
2007-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1315 1326 24.9% 39.9% 35.2% -8.5 1
2007-06-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1367 1319 41.7% 36.3% 22.0% +7.5 12
2007-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1319 1367 22.0% 36.3% 41.7% -7.5 8
2007-06-14 IA Akranes W 3-0 1304 1334 29.0% 41.2% 29.8% +16.1 7
2007-06-14 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1334 1304 29.8% 41.2% 29.0% -16.1 5
2007-06-14 HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1339 1282 43.3% 35.1% 21.5% +4.5 11
2007-06-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1282 1339 21.5% 35.1% 43.3% -4.4 7
2007-06-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1357 1283 46.4% 32.8% 20.8% +4.0 11
2007-06-14 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1283 1357 20.8% 32.8% 46.4% -4.0 2
2007-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1307 1423 21.3% 34.5% 44.1% -8.3 1
2007-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1423 1307 44.1% 34.5% 21.3% +8.3 16
2007-06-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1279 1343 24.9% 39.9% 35.1% +10.6 5
2007-06-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1343 1279 35.1% 39.9% 24.9% -10.5 11
2007-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1318 1375 25.7% 40.4% 33.9% +6.0 8
2007-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1375 1318 33.9% 40.4% 25.7% -6.0 12
2007-06-20 Breidablik W 2-1 1431 1321 53.4% 27.0% 19.6% +3.4 19
2007-06-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1321 1431 19.6% 27.0% 53.4% -3.4 7
2007-06-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1277 1299 30.3% 41.1% 28.6% +10.8 10
2007-06-20 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1299 1277 28.6% 41.1% 30.3% -10.8 1
2007-06-20 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1312 1361 26.5% 40.7% 32.8% -5.1 8
2007-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1361 1312 32.8% 40.7% 26.5% +5.1 14
2007-06-26 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1317 1288 38.3% 38.4% 23.3% +13.4 10
2007-06-26 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1288 1317 23.3% 38.4% 38.3% -13.5 10
2007-06-26 IA Akranes L 0-3 1306 1324 30.8% 41.1% 28.1% -16.4 8
2007-06-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1324 1306 28.1% 41.1% 30.8% +16.4 11
2007-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1366 1333 39.1% 37.9% 23.0% +4.8 17
2007-06-27 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1333 1366 23.0% 37.9% 39.1% -4.8 11
2007-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1369 1434 24.8% 39.8% 35.4% +15.0 15
2007-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1434 1369 35.4% 39.8% 24.8% -15.0 19
2007-06-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1288 1290 33.2% 40.6% 26.2% +5.1 4
2007-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1290 1288 26.2% 40.6% 33.2% -5.1 5
2007-07-03 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1419 1290 57.0% 23.9% 19.1% +7.8 22
2007-07-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1290 1419 19.1% 23.9% 57.0% -7.8 8
2007-07-03 Breidablik W 1-0 1285 1331 26.9% 40.8% 32.2% +6.2 8
2007-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1331 1285 32.2% 40.8% 26.9% -6.1 10
2007-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1328 1293 39.4% 37.8% 22.9% -0.6 12
2007-07-04 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1293 1328 22.9% 37.8% 39.4% +0.6 5
2007-07-04 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1275 1384 21.7% 35.4% 42.9% -10.4 10
2007-07-04 @ HK Kopavogur W 4-1 1384 1275 42.9% 35.4% 21.7% +10.4 18
2007-07-04 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1341 1371 28.9% 41.2% 29.9% +5.6 14
2007-07-04 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1371 1341 29.9% 41.2% 28.9% -5.6 17
2007-07-14 IA Akranes D 1-1 1427 1346 47.8% 31.7% 20.5% -0.9 23
2007-07-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1346 1427 20.5% 31.7% 47.8% +0.9 15
2007-07-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1366 1293 46.1% 33.1% 20.8% -0.8 18
2007-07-15 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1293 1366 20.8% 33.1% 46.1% +0.8 6
2007-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1291 1394 22.0% 36.2% 41.9% -8.6 8
2007-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1394 1291 41.9% 36.2% 22.0% +8.6 21
2007-07-16 Breidablik L 0-3 1327 1324 34.0% 40.3% 25.7% -17.4 12
2007-07-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1324 1327 25.7% 40.3% 34.0% +17.4 13
2007-07-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1264 1282 30.8% 41.1% 28.1% -0.1 11
2007-07-16 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1282 1264 28.1% 41.1% 30.8% +0.1 9
2007-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1403 1310 50.0% 29.9% 20.1% -11.4 21
2007-07-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-2 1310 1403 20.1% 29.9% 50.0% +11.4 15
2007-07-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1342 1294 41.6% 36.4% 22.1% -0.6 14
2007-07-25 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1294 1342 22.1% 36.4% 41.6% +0.6 7
2007-07-25 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1282 1282 33.5% 40.5% 26.0% +5.1 12
2007-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1282 1282 26.0% 40.5% 33.5% -5.1 8
2007-07-26 HK Kopavogur W 4-1 1347 1264 48.1% 31.4% 20.4% +9.4 18
2007-07-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1264 1347 20.4% 31.4% 48.1% -9.4 11
2007-07-28 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1426 1365 44.1% 34.6% 21.3% +3.9 26
2007-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1365 1426 21.3% 34.6% 44.1% -3.9 18
2007-08-08 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1295 1391 22.4% 37.0% 40.6% -12.9 7
2007-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1391 1295 40.6% 37.0% 22.4% +12.9 24
2007-08-09 IA Akranes L 2-4 1277 1356 23.6% 38.7% 37.7% -7.3 8
2007-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1356 1277 37.7% 38.7% 23.6% +7.3 21
2007-08-09 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1321 1287 39.2% 37.9% 22.9% +4.8 18
2007-08-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1287 1321 22.9% 37.9% 39.2% -4.8 12
2007-08-09 Breidablik L 0-3 1361 1341 36.7% 39.2% 24.1% -18.1 18
2007-08-09 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1341 1361 24.1% 39.2% 36.7% +18.1 17
2007-08-16 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1430 1270 62.9% 18.8% 18.3% -0.9 27
2007-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1270 1430 18.3% 18.8% 62.9% +0.9 9
2007-08-16 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1255 1343 23.0% 37.9% 39.1% +6.5 14
2007-08-16 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1343 1255 39.1% 37.9% 23.0% -6.5 18
2007-08-16 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1364 1326 39.8% 37.5% 22.7% -13.0 21
2007-08-16 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1326 1364 22.7% 37.5% 39.8% +13.0 21
2007-08-16 Breidablik D 2-2 1404 1359 41.1% 36.7% 22.2% -0.5 25
2007-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1359 1404 22.2% 36.7% 41.1% +0.5 18
2007-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1283 1282 33.6% 40.5% 25.9% -6.3 12
2007-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1282 1283 25.9% 40.5% 33.6% +6.3 10
2007-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1261 1429 19.5% 26.5% 54.0% +0.9 15
2007-08-19 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1429 1261 54.0% 26.5% 19.5% -0.9 28
2007-08-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1360 1276 48.2% 31.3% 20.4% -0.9 19
2007-08-26 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1276 1360 20.4% 31.3% 48.2% +0.9 13
2007-08-26 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1271 1262 34.9% 40.0% 25.1% +14.4 12
2007-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1262 1271 25.1% 40.0% 34.9% -14.4 15
2007-08-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1339 1428 22.9% 37.8% 39.3% -4.5 21
2007-08-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1428 1339 39.3% 37.8% 22.9% +4.5 31
2007-08-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1336 1404 24.6% 39.7% 35.7% -8.4 18
2007-08-26 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1404 1336 35.7% 39.7% 24.6% +8.4 28
2007-08-26 IA Akranes D 1-1 1288 1351 25.1% 40.1% 34.8% +0.3 11
2007-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1351 1288 34.8% 40.1% 25.1% -0.3 22
2007-08-30 KR Reykjavik W 5-1 1433 1289 59.9% 21.4% 18.7% +9.5 34
2007-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1289 1433 18.7% 21.4% 59.9% -9.5 11
2007-08-30 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1285 1328 27.3% 40.9% 31.7% +0.1 13
2007-08-30 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1328 1285 31.7% 40.9% 27.3% -0.1 19
2007-08-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1248 1335 23.0% 38.0% 39.0% -4.6 15
2007-08-30 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1335 1248 39.0% 38.0% 23.0% +4.6 24
2007-08-30 Breidablik W 2-1 1350 1359 32.2% 40.8% 27.0% +5.2 25
2007-08-30 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1359 1350 27.0% 40.8% 32.2% -5.2 19
2007-09-02 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1277 1412 20.5% 31.7% 47.7% -12.2 13
2007-09-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-1 1412 1277 47.7% 31.7% 20.5% +12.2 31
2007-09-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-3 1354 1442 22.9% 37.8% 39.3% +6.0 22
2007-09-16 @ Breidablik L 3-4 1442 1354 39.3% 37.8% 22.9% -6.0 34
2007-09-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1339 1285 42.8% 35.5% 21.7% -0.7 25
2007-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1285 1339 21.7% 35.5% 42.8% +0.7 14
2007-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1328 1265 44.4% 34.4% 21.3% -0.9 20
2007-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1265 1328 21.3% 34.4% 44.4% +0.9 14
2007-09-16 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1279 1243 39.5% 37.7% 22.8% +4.3 14
2007-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1243 1279 22.8% 37.7% 39.5% -4.3 15
2007-09-17 IA Akranes D 2-2 1424 1356 45.5% 33.5% 21.0% -0.6 32
2007-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1356 1424 21.0% 33.5% 45.5% +0.6 26
2007-09-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1436 1424 35.5% 39.8% 24.7% -12.3 34
2007-09-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1424 1436 24.7% 39.8% 35.5% +12.3 35
2007-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1286 1284 33.9% 40.4% 25.7% -0.3 15
2007-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1284 1286 25.7% 40.4% 33.9% +0.3 15
2007-09-23 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1339 1327 35.4% 39.8% 24.8% +18.6 28
2007-09-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-4 1327 1339 24.8% 39.8% 35.4% -18.6 20
2007-09-23 Breidablik D 1-1 1239 1360 21.1% 33.9% 45.0% +0.8 16
2007-09-23 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1360 1239 45.0% 33.9% 21.1% -0.8 23
2007-09-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1356 1266 49.5% 30.3% 20.2% +3.9 29
2007-09-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1266 1356 20.2% 30.3% 49.5% -3.9 14
2007-09-29 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1359 1286 46.3% 32.9% 20.8% -0.6 24
2007-09-29 @ Breidablik D 2-2 1286 1359 20.8% 32.9% 46.3% +0.6 16
2007-09-29 IA Akranes D 3-3 1308 1360 26.2% 40.6% 33.1% +0.1 21
2007-09-29 @ Keflavik IF D 3-3 1360 1308 33.1% 40.6% 26.2% -0.1 30
2007-09-29 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1284 1357 24.1% 39.2% 36.7% +0.4 16
2007-09-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1357 1284 36.7% 39.2% 24.1% -0.4 29
2007-09-29 HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1436 1240 69.4% 13.5% 17.1% +2.5 38
2007-09-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1240 1436 17.1% 13.5% 69.4% -2.5 16
2007-09-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1262 1424 19.7% 27.4% 52.9% -6.0 14
2007-09-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1424 1262 52.9% 27.4% 19.7% +6.0 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-07-24 20.12% Fylkir Reykjavik 1310 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1403 2
2 2007-08-16 22.69% Fylkir Reykjavik 1326 2 @ IA Akranes 1364 0
3 2007-09-16 22.90% @ Breidablik 1354 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1442 3
4 2007-08-16 22.97% @ HK Kopavogur 1255 2 Keflavik IF 1343 1
5 2007-08-09 24.06% Breidablik 1341 3 @ Keflavik IF 1361 0
6 2007-09-23 24.70% Valur Reykjavik 1424 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1436 0
7 2007-06-27 24.81% @ Valur Reykjavik 1369 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1434 1
8 2007-06-18 24.94% @ Fram Reykjavik 1279 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1343 1
9 2007-05-28 25.14% Vikingur Reykjavik 1313 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1321 1
10 2007-07-16 25.65% Breidablik 1324 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1327 0
11 2007-06-19 25.73% @ IA Akranes 1318 2 Valur Reykjavik 1375 1
12 2007-05-20 25.91% Vikingur Reykjavik 1308 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1308 0
13 2007-08-16 25.94% KR Reykjavik 1282 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1283 0
14 2007-07-03 26.94% @ Fram Reykjavik 1285 1 Breidablik 1331 0
15 2007-05-14 27.41% Keflavik IF 1344 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1332 1
16 2007-05-24 27.47% Fylkir Reykjavik 1332 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1320 0
17 2007-06-26 28.13% IA Akranes 1324 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1306 0
18 2007-05-21 28.25% @ HK Kopavogur 1296 1 IA Akranes 1332 0
19 2007-05-20 28.41% Valur Reykjavik 1358 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1338 1
20 2007-05-13 28.81% Fylkir Reykjavik 1332 1 @ Breidablik 1309 0
21 2007-07-04 28.93% @ IA Akranes 1341 2 Keflavik IF 1371 1
22 2007-06-14 29.01% @ Breidablik 1304 3 IA Akranes 1334 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-09-23 18.57 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1339 35.43% Keflavik IF 0 1327 24.77%
2 2007-08-09 18.14 Breidablik 3 1341 24.06% @ Keflavik IF 0 1361 36.73%
3 2007-07-16 17.38 Breidablik 3 1324 25.65% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1327 34.01%
4 2007-06-26 16.43 IA Akranes 3 1324 28.13% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1306 30.78%
5 2007-06-14 16.13 @ Breidablik 3 1304 29.01% IA Akranes 0 1334 29.83%
6 2007-06-27 14.98 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1369 24.81% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1434 35.35%
7 2007-08-26 14.37 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1271 34.89% HK Kopavogur 0 1262 25.09%
8 2007-05-24 13.61 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1402 51.28% HK Kopavogur 0 1302 19.91%
9 2007-06-26 13.45 @ Breidablik 3 1317 38.30% HK Kopavogur 0 1288 23.31%
10 2007-08-16 13.04 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1326 22.69% @ IA Akranes 0 1364 39.79%
11 2007-08-08 12.85 Valur Reykjavik 3 1391 40.63% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1295 22.38%
12 2007-09-23 12.27 Valur Reykjavik 2 1424 24.70% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1436 35.55%
13 2007-05-28 12.25 @ Keflavik IF 3 1345 43.10% HK Kopavogur 0 1289 21.60%
14 2007-09-02 12.18 Valur Reykjavik 5 1412 47.74% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1277 20.52%
15 2007-05-20 11.90 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1308 25.91% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1308 33.61%
16 2007-07-24 11.36 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1310 20.12% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1403 49.98%
17 2007-06-20 10.83 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1277 30.27% KR Reykjavik 0 1299 28.59%
18 2007-06-18 10.56 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1279 24.94% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1343 35.13%
19 2007-07-04 10.38 Valur Reykjavik 4 1384 42.89% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1275 21.66%
20 2007-08-30 9.47 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1433 59.89% KR Reykjavik 1 1289 18.71%
21 2007-07-26 9.36 @ IA Akranes 4 1347 48.10% HK Kopavogur 1 1264 20.45%
22 2007-07-16 8.64 Valur Reykjavik 2 1394 41.85% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1291 21.97%
23 2007-06-10 8.52 @ IA Akranes 3 1326 35.20% KR Reykjavik 1 1315 24.90%
24 2007-08-26 8.43 Valur Reykjavik 3 1404 35.68% @ Keflavik IF 1 1336 24.63%
25 2007-06-14 8.27 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1423 44.13% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1307 21.32%