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2007 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

38 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1987.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

7.99 points above expected

38 points · 30.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

5.52 points below expected

14 points · 19.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 11 5 2 38 41 20 +21 30.01 +7.99
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 11 4 3 37 42 26 +16 31.04 +5.96
3 IA Akranes 18 8 6 4 30 34 27 +7 25.66 +4.34
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 23 18 +5 25.57 +3.43
5 Breidablik 18 5 9 4 24 29 20 +9 24.54 -0.54
6 Keflavik IF 18 5 6 7 21 26 32 -6 25.64 -4.64
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 3 7 8 16 25 31 -6 19.79 -3.79
8 KR Reykjavik 18 3 7 8 16 17 30 -13 20.38 -4.38
9 HK Kopavogur 18 4 4 10 16 17 35 -18 18.77 -2.77
10 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 5 10 14 15 30 -15 19.52 -5.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 38 30.01 +7.99
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 31.04 +5.96
3 IA Akranes 30 25.66 +4.34
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 29 25.57 +3.43
5 Breidablik 24 24.54 -0.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 14 19.52 -5.52
2 Keflavik IF 21 25.64 -4.64
3 KR Reykjavik 16 20.38 -4.38
4 Fram Reykjavik 16 19.79 -3.79
5 HK Kopavogur 16 18.77 -2.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 Jul 24 – Aug 16 1 in 68
2 IA Akranes 3 Jun 19 – Jul 4 1 in 40
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 May 12 – May 29 1 in 31
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 16 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 14 – Jun 27 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 5 May 24 – Jun 20 1 in 114
2 Keflavik IF 4 Jul 28 – Aug 26 1 in 77
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jun 13 – Jul 3 1 in 33
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Sep 16 – Sep 23 1 in 13
5 HK Kopavogur 3 Aug 26 – Sep 16 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 6 Aug 16 – Sep 29 1 in 31
2 IA Akranes 6 Jun 19 – Aug 9 1 in 12
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 28 – Jul 25 1 in 11
4 Breidablik 5 May 20 – Jun 14 1 in 11
5 Keflavik IF 6 May 24 – Jun 27 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 10 Jul 4 – Sep 29 1 in 76
2 KR Reykjavik 7 May 14 – Jun 20 1 in 13
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jun 18 – Jul 16 1 in 6
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 16 – Aug 19 1 in 6
5 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 13 – Jun 14 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valur Reykjavik 1484 38 +56 13 8.9 +4.1
FH Hafnarfjordur 1443 37 -2 9 8.7 +0.3
IA Akranes 1373 30 +16 9 7.4 +1.6
Fylkir Reykjavik 1373 29 +28 8 7.8 +0.2
Breidablik 1389 24 -7 6 8.3 -2.3
Keflavik IF 1272 21 -47 3 6.2 -3.2
Fram Reykjavik 1270 16 +30 7 6.0 +1.0
KR Reykjavik 1252 16 -3 6 5.4 +0.6
HK Kopavogur 1191 16 -43 1 4.4 -3.4
Vikingur Reykjavik 1211 14 -29 2 3.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR HK IA KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
1-0-1
1.90
0-1-1
3.44
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
3.57
1-0-1
2.67
0-2-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.46
0-2-0
2.22
0-2-0
3.10
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
3.47
 —
1-1-0
3.92
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.81
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-2
3.02
2-0-0
4.00
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-1
1.50
 —
1-1-0
1.98
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
2.72
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
1.91
0-1-1
3.36
 —
2-0-0
3.47
1-1-0
2.54
0-2-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.16
2-0-0
2.90
HK Kopavogur
0-1-1
1.80
0-1-1
1.59
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
1.88
 —
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
1.99
0-0-2
1.37
0-2-0
2.57
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.13
1-1-0
3.28
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.24
 —
1-1-0
3.14
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
2.00
2-0-0
3.22
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.50
1-1-0
2.49
0-2-0
1.95
1-0-1
2.87
0-1-1
2.19
 —
0-1-1
2.24
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.63
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.21
1-1-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.35
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.11
 —
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
3.23
Valur Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.11
2-0-0
2.30
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
4.09
0-1-1
3.35
2-0-0
3.40
1-1-0
3.13
 —
2-0-0
3.59
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.27
0-0-2
1.43
2-0-0
2.60
0-0-2
2.43
0-2-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
1.78
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +8.5
Allowed 0.47 -10.6
Differential 0.89 +6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%3.89%4.44%1.11%—20.56%
15.56%13.33%9.44%2.78%2.22%1.11%34.44%
23.89%9.44%11.11%1.67%1.11%—27.22%
34.44%2.78%1.67%2.22%0.56%—11.67%
41.11%2.22%1.11%0.56%——5.00%
5+—1.11%————1.11%
Total20.56%34.44%27.22%11.67%5.00%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.70
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
1—27.78%11.11%———38.89%
2——16.67%———16.67%
322.22%—————22.22%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.20 0.90 1.47
CV 0.74 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.44 +0.89
SD 1.33 1.25 1.84
CV 0.57 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%———16.67%
15.56%16.67%22.22%———44.44%
2——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%55.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.72 -0.33
SD 0.98 0.96 1.37
CV 0.70 0.56 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
122.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%——50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.00 +0.28
SD 1.18 1.08 1.60
CV 0.92 1.08 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—16.67%5.56%—38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.94 -1.00
SD 0.87 1.39 1.78
CV 0.92 0.72 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—16.67%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.50 +0.39
SD 1.23 0.92 1.58
CV 0.65 0.62 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%33.33%16.67%5.56%—5.56%66.67%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.67 -0.72
SD 0.73 1.19 1.41
CV 0.77 0.71 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
2—16.67%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.78 -0.33
SD 0.92 1.17 1.61
CV 0.64 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%11.11%16.67%—5.56%—44.44%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.11 +1.17
SD 1.23 1.02 1.58
CV 0.54 0.92 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%—5.56%——38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.67 -0.83
SD 0.79 1.41 1.54
CV 0.94 0.85 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1484 38 30.01 +7.99 94.0% 18 21 27 30 33 39 39
FH Hafnarfjordur 1443 37 31.04 +5.96 90.0% 16 23 28 31 35 39 43
Breidablik 1389 24 24.54 -0.54 56.0% 13 16 21 24 28 32 37
Fylkir Reykjavik 1373 29 25.57 +3.43 80.0% 13 17 22 26 29 32 36
IA Akranes 1373 30 25.66 +4.34 81.0% 12 16 22 26 29 35 38
Keflavik IF 1272 21 25.64 -4.64 22.0% 14 16 22 26 29 34 41
Fram Reykjavik 1270 16 19.79 -3.79 29.0% 5 12 16 20 23 28 31
KR Reykjavik 1252 16 20.38 -4.38 18.0% 8 11 17 20 24 28 35
Vikingur Reykjavik 1211 14 19.52 -5.52 11.0% 7 11 16 19 22 28 34
HK Kopavogur 1191 16 18.77 -2.77 34.0% 5 10 15 18 22 29 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
Slight Edge
37.78%32.22%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
148 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
33%
Valur Reykjavik, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.13 * Some Luck: 4.13 to 6.19 * Lucky: 6.19 to 8.26 * Wild Swing: 8.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.3 * Off: 2.3 to 3.07 * Way Off: 3.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.67 * A Surprise: 0.67 to 1.07 * Several Surprises: 1.07 to 1.47 * Many Surprises: 1.47 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.73 points
Some Luck
05.1613
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.924
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Valur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 99.98
1.69
Strong Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Clear Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.86
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.10
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.59
Very Underconfident
0.233141.001.76686
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.197
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1780.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik33.00%22.00%19.00%8.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%—
FH Hafnarfjordur37.00%21.00%20.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%—1.00%
IA Akranes10.00%11.00%14.00%18.00%7.00%15.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik7.00%8.00%16.00%19.00%18.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%
Breidablik3.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%19.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%6.00%3.00%
Keflavik IF7.00%14.00%13.00%15.00%13.00%13.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%
Fram Reykjavik—3.00%2.00%7.00%12.00%12.00%7.00%12.00%29.00%16.00%
KR Reykjavik1.00%4.00%1.00%3.00%10.00%16.00%19.00%14.00%13.00%19.00%
HK Kopavogur2.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%4.00%10.00%12.00%19.00%12.00%33.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik—3.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%6.00%16.00%19.00%26.00%18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 100% —
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.00% 1.00%
IA Akranes 98.00% 2.00%
Breidablik 97.00% 3.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 96.00% 4.00%
Keflavik IF 96.00% 4.00%
Fram Reykjavik 84.00% 16.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 82.00% 18.00%
KR Reykjavik 81.00% 19.00%
HK Kopavogur 67.00% 33.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2007-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-353.5 1335 1386 29.63% 34.09% 36.28%-0.16 -9.2 0
2007-05-12 @ IA Akranes W 3-253.5 1386 1335 36.28% 34.09% 29.63%+0.16 +9.2 3
2007-05-13 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1352 1300 43.73% 33.15% 23.12%+0.53 -1.3 1
2007-05-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1300 1352 23.12% 33.15% 43.73%-0.53 +1.3 1
2007-05-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-142.3 1304 1329 33.20% 34.18% 32.61%+0.01 -11.2 0
2007-05-13 @ Breidablik W 1-042.3 1329 1304 32.61% 34.18% 33.20%-0.01 +11.2 3
2007-05-13 HK Kopavogur D 0-045.5 1296 1290 37.68% 33.99% 28.32%+0.23 -0.6 1
2007-05-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-045.5 1290 1296 28.32% 33.99% 37.68%-0.23 +0.6 1
2007-05-14 Keflavik IF L 1-248.9 1327 1337 35.46% 34.13% 30.41%+0.12 -11.0 0
2007-05-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-148.9 1337 1327 30.41% 34.13% 35.46%-0.12 +11.0 3
2007-05-20 Breidablik D 1-150.1 1316 1293 40.01% 33.75% 26.24%+0.34 -0.8 1
2007-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1293 1316 26.24% 33.75% 40.01%-0.34 +0.8 1
2007-05-20 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-248.3 1348 1395 30.08% 34.11% 35.80%-0.14 -9.9 3
2007-05-20 @ Keflavik IF W 2-148.3 1395 1348 35.80% 34.11% 30.08%+0.14 +9.9 6
2007-05-20 Valur Reykjavik L 1-249.2 1340 1350 35.34% 34.14% 30.52%+0.12 -11.0 3
2007-05-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-149.2 1350 1340 30.52% 34.14% 35.34%-0.12 +11.0 4
2007-05-20 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-239.6 1301 1296 37.54% 34.00% 28.45%+0.22 -22.9 1
2007-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-039.6 1296 1301 28.45% 34.00% 37.54%-0.22 +22.9 4
2007-05-21 IA Akranes W 1-042.4 1290 1326 31.71% 34.17% 34.12%-0.06 +11.4 4
2007-05-21 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-142.4 1326 1290 34.12% 34.17% 31.71%+0.06 -11.4 0
2007-05-24 Fram Reykjavik D 2-256.3 1314 1278 41.68% 33.51% 24.81%+0.43 -0.8 1
2007-05-24 @ IA Akranes D 2-256.3 1278 1314 24.81% 33.51% 41.68%-0.43 +0.8 2
2007-05-24 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-143.0 1319 1329 35.24% 34.14% 30.62%+0.11 -11.6 4
2007-05-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-043.0 1329 1319 30.62% 34.14% 35.24%-0.11 +11.6 6
2007-05-24 HK Kopavogur W 4-032.6 1405 1302 50.19% 31.44% 18.38%+0.88 +25.5 9
2007-05-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-432.6 1302 1405 18.38% 31.44% 50.19%-0.88 -25.5 4
2007-05-24 Keflavik IF D 2-256.4 1294 1338 30.53% 34.14% 35.33%-0.11 +0.2 2
2007-05-24 @ Breidablik D 2-256.4 1338 1294 35.33% 34.14% 30.53%+0.11 -0.2 4
2007-05-24 KR Reykjavik W 2-145.3 1361 1316 42.96% 33.30% 23.74%+0.49 +8.3 7
2007-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-245.3 1316 1361 23.74% 33.30% 42.96%-0.49 -8.3 1
2007-05-28 HK Kopavogur W 3-033.0 1338 1276 45.01% 32.88% 22.11%+0.60 +22.8 7
2007-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-333.0 1276 1338 22.11% 32.88% 45.01%-0.60 -22.8 4
2007-05-28 IA Akranes D 2-256.7 1341 1314 40.51% 33.68% 25.80%+0.37 -0.7 7
2007-05-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-256.7 1314 1341 25.80% 33.68% 40.51%-0.37 +0.7 2
2007-05-28 Valur Reykjavik D 0-046.2 1294 1370 26.49% 33.79% 39.72%-0.33 +0.9 3
2007-05-28 @ Breidablik D 0-046.2 1370 1294 39.72% 33.79% 26.49%+0.33 -0.9 8
2007-05-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-248.8 1307 1307 36.81% 34.06% 29.13%+0.19 -11.3 1
2007-05-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-148.8 1307 1307 29.13% 34.06% 36.81%-0.19 +11.3 7
2007-05-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-234.4 1279 1430 18.88% 31.68% 49.44%-0.84 -13.8 2
2007-05-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-034.4 1430 1279 49.44% 31.68% 18.88%+0.84 +13.8 12
2007-06-08 Breidablik D 1-150.1 1318 1295 39.98% 33.75% 26.26%+0.34 -0.8 8
2007-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-150.1 1295 1318 26.26% 33.75% 39.98%-0.34 +0.8 4
2007-06-09 Keflavik IF D 2-257.5 1369 1360 37.91% 33.97% 28.12%+0.24 -0.4 9
2007-06-09 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-257.5 1360 1369 28.12% 33.97% 37.91%-0.24 +0.4 8
2007-06-10 Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.5 1253 1265 35.05% 34.15% 30.80%+0.10 +10.0 7
2007-06-10 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-246.5 1265 1253 30.80% 34.15% 35.05%-0.10 -10.0 2
2007-06-10 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-048.7 1444 1340 50.26% 31.41% 18.33%+0.89 -2.3 13
2007-06-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-048.7 1340 1444 18.33% 31.41% 50.26%-0.89 +2.3 8
2007-06-10 KR Reykjavik W 3-142.6 1314 1296 39.28% 33.84% 26.88%+0.31 +15.8 5
2007-06-10 @ IA Akranes L 1-342.6 1296 1314 26.88% 33.84% 39.28%-0.31 -15.8 1
2007-06-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-142.0 1368 1317 43.64% 33.17% 23.19%+0.53 +14.1 12
2007-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-342.0 1317 1368 23.19% 33.17% 43.64%-0.53 -14.1 8
2007-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-234.2 1280 1442 18.05% 31.27% 50.68%-0.91 -13.2 1
2007-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-034.2 1442 1280 50.68% 31.27% 18.05%+0.91 +13.2 16
2007-06-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-142.5 1361 1255 50.44% 31.35% 18.21%+0.90 +6.7 11
2007-06-14 @ Keflavik IF L 1-242.5 1255 1361 18.21% 31.35% 50.44%-0.90 -6.7 2
2007-06-14 HK Kopavogur W 1-037.7 1343 1263 47.25% 32.32% 20.43%+0.72 +7.8 11
2007-06-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-137.7 1263 1343 20.43% 32.32% 47.25%-0.72 -7.8 7
2007-06-14 IA Akranes W 3-037.0 1296 1330 31.87% 34.18% 33.96%-0.05 +31.0 7
2007-06-14 @ Breidablik L 0-337.0 1330 1296 33.96% 34.18% 31.87%+0.05 -31.0 5
2007-06-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-147.2 1249 1350 23.55% 33.25% 43.19%-0.50 +21.9 5
2007-06-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-347.2 1350 1249 43.19% 33.25% 23.55%+0.50 -21.9 11
2007-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-150.5 1299 1382 25.58% 33.65% 40.77%-0.38 +12.1 8
2007-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 1-250.5 1382 1299 40.77% 33.65% 25.58%+0.38 -12.1 12
2007-06-20 Breidablik W 2-143.9 1455 1327 53.13% 30.37% 16.51%+1.05 +6.1 19
2007-06-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.9 1327 1455 16.51% 30.37% 53.13%-1.05 -6.1 7
2007-06-20 Keflavik IF L 1-246.6 1303 1368 27.89% 33.95% 38.16%-0.25 -9.3 8
2007-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-146.6 1368 1303 38.16% 33.95% 27.89%+0.25 +9.3 14
2007-06-20 KR Reykjavik W 2-037.2 1256 1267 35.13% 34.14% 30.72%+0.11 +20.0 10
2007-06-20 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-237.2 1267 1256 30.72% 34.14% 35.13%-0.11 -20.0 1
2007-06-26 HK Kopavogur W 3-033.5 1321 1276 42.89% 33.31% 23.80%+0.49 +24.2 10
2007-06-26 @ Breidablik L 0-333.5 1276 1321 23.80% 33.31% 42.89%-0.49 -24.2 10
2007-06-26 IA Akranes L 0-337.0 1294 1311 34.32% 34.17% 31.52%+0.07 -31.2 8
2007-06-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-037.0 1311 1294 31.52% 34.17% 34.32%-0.07 +31.2 11
2007-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-148.1 1370 1461 24.73% 33.50% 41.77%-0.43 +30.3 15
2007-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-448.1 1461 1370 41.77% 33.50% 24.73%+0.43 -30.3 19
2007-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-039.8 1377 1328 43.32% 33.23% 23.45%+0.51 +8.7 17
2007-06-27 @ Keflavik IF L 0-139.8 1328 1377 23.45% 33.23% 43.32%-0.51 -8.7 11
2007-06-28 Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.0 1247 1271 33.40% 34.18% 32.41%+0.02 +10.4 4
2007-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-247.0 1271 1247 32.41% 34.18% 33.40%-0.02 -10.4 5
2007-07-03 Breidablik W 1-044.2 1260 1345 25.45% 33.63% 40.92%-0.39 +12.9 8
2007-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-144.2 1345 1260 40.92% 33.63% 25.45%+0.39 -12.9 10
2007-07-03 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-135.6 1431 1263 57.58% 28.41% 14.01%+1.32 +12.6 22
2007-07-03 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-435.6 1263 1431 14.01% 28.41% 57.58%-1.32 -12.6 8
2007-07-04 Keflavik IF W 2-149.6 1342 1386 30.66% 34.14% 35.20%-0.11 +10.9 14
2007-07-04 @ IA Akranes L 1-249.6 1386 1342 35.20% 34.14% 30.66%+0.11 -10.9 17
2007-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-045.8 1320 1257 45.11% 32.86% 22.03%+0.60 -1.6 12
2007-07-04 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-045.8 1257 1320 22.03% 32.86% 45.11%-0.60 +1.6 5
2007-07-04 Valur Reykjavik L 1-437.7 1251 1401 19.05% 31.76% 49.19%-0.83 -17.0 10
2007-07-04 @ HK Kopavogur W 4-137.7 1401 1251 49.19% 31.76% 19.05%+0.83 +17.0 18
2007-07-14 IA Akranes D 1-153.2 1443 1353 48.58% 31.94% 19.47%+0.79 -1.9 23
2007-07-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-153.2 1353 1443 19.47% 31.94% 48.58%-0.79 +1.9 15
2007-07-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-151.1 1375 1259 51.64% 30.93% 17.43%+0.97 -2.2 18
2007-07-15 @ Keflavik IF D 1-151.1 1259 1375 17.43% 30.93% 51.64%-0.97 +2.2 6
2007-07-16 Breidablik L 0-337.5 1318 1332 34.81% 34.16% 31.04%+0.09 -31.5 12
2007-07-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-037.5 1332 1318 31.04% 34.16% 34.81%-0.09 +31.5 13
2007-07-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-234.4 1273 1418 19.47% 31.94% 48.59%-0.79 -14.1 8
2007-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-034.4 1418 1273 48.59% 31.94% 19.47%+0.79 +14.1 21
2007-07-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-255.6 1234 1250 34.54% 34.16% 31.30%+0.08 -0.1 11
2007-07-16 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-255.6 1250 1234 31.30% 34.16% 34.54%-0.08 +0.1 9
2007-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-455.2 1432 1287 55.03% 29.58% 15.39%+1.16 -23.6 21
2007-07-24 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-255.2 1287 1432 15.39% 29.58% 55.03%-1.16 +23.6 15
2007-07-25 Fram Reykjavik W 2-146.4 1250 1259 35.50% 34.13% 30.37%+0.12 +9.9 12
2007-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-246.4 1259 1250 30.37% 34.13% 35.50%-0.12 -9.9 8
2007-07-25 KR Reykjavik D 1-150.9 1363 1261 50.05% 31.48% 18.47%+0.87 -2.0 14
2007-07-25 @ Breidablik D 1-150.9 1261 1363 18.47% 31.48% 50.05%-0.87 +2.0 7
2007-07-26 HK Kopavogur W 4-136.3 1355 1234 52.28% 30.69% 17.03%+1.00 +15.3 18
2007-07-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-436.3 1234 1355 17.03% 30.69% 52.28%-1.00 -15.3 11
2007-07-28 Keflavik IF W 3-252.4 1442 1372 45.99% 32.65% 21.36%+0.65 +7.2 26
2007-07-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-352.4 1372 1442 21.36% 32.65% 45.99%-0.65 -7.2 18
2007-08-08 Valur Reykjavik L 0-332.4 1263 1408 19.43% 31.93% 48.64%-0.80 -20.5 7
2007-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-032.4 1408 1263 48.64% 31.93% 19.43%+0.80 +20.5 24
2007-08-09 Breidablik L 0-339.1 1365 1361 37.28% 34.02% 28.70%+0.21 -33.1 18
2007-08-09 @ Keflavik IF W 3-039.1 1361 1365 28.70% 34.02% 37.28%-0.21 +33.1 17
2007-08-09 IA Akranes L 2-445.1 1249 1371 21.55% 32.71% 45.74%-0.64 -11.9 8
2007-08-09 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-245.1 1371 1249 45.74% 32.71% 21.55%+0.64 +11.9 21
2007-08-09 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-038.6 1310 1260 43.53% 33.19% 23.28%+0.52 +8.7 18
2007-08-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-138.6 1260 1310 23.28% 33.19% 43.53%-0.52 -8.7 12
2007-08-16 Breidablik D 2-259.5 1428 1394 41.41% 33.56% 25.03%+0.41 -0.7 25
2007-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-259.5 1394 1428 25.03% 33.56% 41.41%-0.41 +0.7 18
2007-08-16 Fram Reykjavik D 3-363.7 1449 1237 62.15% 26.04% 11.81%+1.61 -2.1 27
2007-08-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-363.7 1237 1449 11.81% 26.04% 62.15%-1.61 +2.1 9
2007-08-16 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-242.5 1382 1319 45.29% 32.82% 21.90%+0.61 -26.3 21
2007-08-16 @ IA Akranes W 2-042.5 1319 1382 21.90% 32.82% 45.29%-0.61 +26.3 21
2007-08-16 Keflavik IF W 2-150.5 1219 1332 22.36% 32.95% 44.69%-0.58 +13.0 14
2007-08-16 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-250.5 1332 1219 44.69% 32.95% 22.36%+0.58 -13.0 18
2007-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-142.9 1251 1243 37.96% 33.97% 28.07%+0.24 -12.2 12
2007-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-042.9 1243 1251 28.07% 33.97% 37.96%-0.24 +12.2 10
2007-08-19 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-258.4 1232 1447 14.45% 28.81% 56.75%-1.27 +2.1 15
2007-08-19 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-258.4 1447 1232 56.75% 28.81% 14.45%+1.27 -2.1 28
2007-08-26 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.1 1345 1445 23.78% 33.31% 42.91%-0.49 -8.3 21
2007-08-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-147.1 1445 1345 42.91% 33.31% 23.78%+0.49 +8.3 31
2007-08-26 HK Kopavogur W 3-034.6 1239 1234 37.51% 34.01% 28.49%+0.22 +27.6 12
2007-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-334.6 1234 1239 28.49% 34.01% 37.51%-0.22 -27.6 15
2007-08-26 IA Akranes D 1-150.3 1255 1356 23.60% 33.26% 43.13%-0.50 +1.2 11
2007-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.3 1356 1255 43.13% 33.26% 23.60%+0.50 -1.2 22
2007-08-26 Valur Reykjavik L 1-342.7 1319 1428 22.82% 33.07% 44.11%-0.55 -13.9 18
2007-08-26 @ Keflavik IF W 3-142.7 1428 1319 44.11% 33.07% 22.82%+0.55 +13.9 28
2007-08-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-151.7 1395 1239 56.24% 29.04% 14.72%+1.24 -2.8 19
2007-08-26 @ Breidablik D 1-151.7 1239 1395 14.72% 29.04% 56.24%-1.24 +2.8 13
2007-08-30 Breidablik W 2-149.7 1355 1392 31.44% 34.17% 34.39%-0.07 +10.8 25
2007-08-30 @ IA Akranes L 1-249.7 1392 1355 34.39% 34.17% 31.44%+0.07 -10.8 19
2007-08-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-243.1 1206 1337 20.70% 32.43% 46.87%-0.70 -7.4 15
2007-08-30 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-143.1 1337 1206 46.87% 32.43% 20.70%+0.70 +7.4 24
2007-08-30 Keflavik IF D 2-255.9 1267 1305 31.34% 34.16% 34.49%-0.07 +0.1 13
2007-08-30 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-255.9 1305 1267 34.49% 34.16% 31.34%+0.07 -0.1 19
2007-08-30 KR Reykjavik W 5-133.9 1453 1256 60.61% 26.88% 12.52%+1.51 +14.3 34
2007-08-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-533.9 1256 1453 12.52% 26.88% 60.61%-1.51 -14.3 11
2007-09-02 Valur Reykjavik L 1-535.2 1242 1442 15.37% 29.56% 55.07%-1.17 -17.9 13
2007-09-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-135.2 1442 1242 55.07% 29.56% 15.37%+1.17 +17.9 31
2007-09-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-362.3 1382 1467 25.33% 33.61% 41.06%-0.40 +11.3 22
2007-09-16 @ Breidablik L 3-462.3 1467 1382 41.06% 33.61% 25.33%+0.40 -11.3 34
2007-09-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-150.5 1344 1267 46.99% 32.39% 20.62%+0.70 -1.7 25
2007-09-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-150.5 1267 1344 20.62% 32.39% 46.99%-0.70 +1.7 14
2007-09-16 HK Kopavogur W 3-249.7 1242 1199 42.60% 33.36% 24.04%+0.47 +8.0 14
2007-09-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-349.7 1199 1242 24.04% 33.36% 42.60%-0.47 -8.0 15
2007-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-045.7 1305 1224 47.46% 32.27% 20.28%+0.73 -1.9 20
2007-09-16 @ Keflavik IF D 0-045.7 1224 1305 20.28% 32.27% 47.46%-0.73 +1.9 14
2007-09-17 IA Akranes D 2-260.1 1460 1366 49.04% 31.80% 19.15%+0.82 -1.4 32
2007-09-17 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-260.1 1366 1460 19.15% 31.80% 49.04%-0.82 +1.4 26
2007-09-23 Breidablik D 1-151.2 1191 1393 15.22% 29.45% 55.33%-1.18 +2.7 16
2007-09-23 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-151.2 1393 1191 55.33% 29.45% 15.22%+1.18 -2.7 23
2007-09-23 Keflavik IF W 4-034.3 1343 1303 42.15% 33.44% 24.41%+0.45 +32.2 28
2007-09-23 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-434.3 1303 1343 24.41% 33.44% 42.15%-0.45 -32.2 20
2007-09-23 KR Reykjavik D 1-149.6 1269 1250 39.37% 33.83% 26.80%+0.31 -0.8 15
2007-09-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-149.6 1250 1269 26.80% 33.83% 39.37%-0.31 +0.8 15
2007-09-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-245.2 1456 1458 36.44% 34.08% 29.48%+0.17 -22.4 34
2007-09-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-045.2 1458 1456 29.48% 34.08% 36.44%-0.17 +22.4 35
2007-09-23 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-035.4 1367 1226 54.59% 29.77% 15.65%+1.14 +6.1 29
2007-09-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-135.4 1226 1367 15.65% 29.77% 54.59%-1.14 -6.1 14
2007-09-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-337.8 1220 1433 14.52% 28.87% 56.61%-1.26 -9.2 14
2007-09-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-137.8 1433 1220 56.61% 28.87% 14.52%+1.26 +9.2 37
2007-09-29 Fram Reykjavik D 2-257.6 1390 1268 52.43% 30.64% 16.94%+1.01 -1.7 24
2007-09-29 @ Breidablik D 2-257.6 1268 1390 16.94% 30.64% 52.43%-1.01 +1.7 16
2007-09-29 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1251 1375 21.29% 32.63% 46.09%-0.66 +1.5 16
2007-09-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-150.6 1375 1251 46.09% 32.63% 21.29%+0.66 -1.5 29
2007-09-29 HK Kopavogur W 1-031.6 1481 1194 69.49% 21.65% 8.86%+2.12 +3.1 38
2007-09-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-131.6 1194 1481 8.86% 21.65% 69.49%-2.12 -3.1 16
2007-09-29 IA Akranes D 3-361.1 1271 1373 23.46% 33.23% 43.30%-0.51 +0.8 21
2007-09-29 @ Keflavik IF D 3-361.1 1373 1271 43.30% 33.23% 23.46%+0.51 -0.8 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-07-24 15.39% Fylkir Reykjavik 1287 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1432 2
2 2007-08-16 21.90% Fylkir Reykjavik 1319 2 @ IA Akranes 1382 0
3 2007-08-16 22.36% @ HK Kopavogur 1219 2 Keflavik IF 1332 1
4 2007-06-18 23.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 1249 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1350 1
5 2007-06-27 24.73% @ Valur Reykjavik 1370 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1461 1
6 2007-09-16 25.33% @ Breidablik 1382 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1467 3
7 2007-07-03 25.45% @ Fram Reykjavik 1260 1 Breidablik 1345 0
8 2007-06-19 25.58% @ IA Akranes 1299 2 Valur Reykjavik 1382 1
9 2007-08-16 28.07% KR Reykjavik 1243 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1251 0
10 2007-05-20 28.45% Vikingur Reykjavik 1296 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1301 0
11 2007-08-09 28.70% Breidablik 1361 3 @ Keflavik IF 1365 0
12 2007-05-28 29.13% Vikingur Reykjavik 1307 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1307 1
13 2007-09-23 29.48% Valur Reykjavik 1458 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1456 0
14 2007-05-14 30.41% Keflavik IF 1337 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1327 1
15 2007-05-20 30.52% Valur Reykjavik 1350 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1340 1
16 2007-05-24 30.62% Fylkir Reykjavik 1329 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1319 0
17 2007-07-04 30.66% @ IA Akranes 1342 2 Keflavik IF 1386 1
18 2007-07-16 31.04% Breidablik 1332 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1318 0
19 2007-08-30 31.44% @ IA Akranes 1355 2 Breidablik 1392 1
20 2007-06-26 31.52% IA Akranes 1311 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1294 0
21 2007-05-21 31.71% @ HK Kopavogur 1290 1 IA Akranes 1326 0
22 2007-06-14 31.87% @ Breidablik 1296 3 IA Akranes 1330 0
23 2007-05-13 32.61% Fylkir Reykjavik 1329 1 @ Breidablik 1304 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-08-09 33.08 Breidablik 3 1361 28.70% @ Keflavik IF 0 1365 37.28% 34.02%
2 2007-09-23 32.18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1343 42.15% Keflavik IF 0 1303 24.41% 33.44%
3 2007-07-16 31.55 Breidablik 3 1332 31.04% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1318 34.81% 34.16%
4 2007-06-26 31.25 IA Akranes 3 1311 31.52% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1294 34.32% 34.17%
5 2007-06-14 31.03 @ Breidablik 3 1296 31.87% IA Akranes 0 1330 33.96% 34.18%
6 2007-06-27 30.28 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1370 24.73% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1461 41.77% 33.50%
7 2007-08-26 27.56 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1239 37.51% HK Kopavogur 0 1234 28.49% 34.01%
8 2007-08-16 26.26 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1319 21.90% @ IA Akranes 0 1382 45.29% 32.82%
9 2007-05-24 25.46 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1405 50.19% HK Kopavogur 0 1302 18.38% 31.44%
10 2007-06-26 24.16 @ Breidablik 3 1321 42.89% HK Kopavogur 0 1276 23.80% 33.31%
11 2007-07-24 23.64 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1287 15.39% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1432 55.03% 29.58%
12 2007-05-20 22.88 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1296 28.45% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1301 37.54% 34.00%
13 2007-05-28 22.81 @ Keflavik IF 3 1338 45.01% HK Kopavogur 0 1276 22.11% 32.88%
14 2007-09-23 22.42 Valur Reykjavik 2 1458 29.48% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1456 36.44% 34.08%
15 2007-06-18 21.94 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1249 23.55% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1350 43.19% 33.25%
16 2007-08-08 20.48 Valur Reykjavik 3 1408 48.64% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1263 19.43% 31.93%
17 2007-06-20 19.98 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1256 35.13% KR Reykjavik 0 1267 30.72% 34.14%
18 2007-09-02 17.88 Valur Reykjavik 5 1442 55.07% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1242 15.37% 29.56%
19 2007-07-04 16.98 Valur Reykjavik 4 1401 49.19% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1251 19.05% 31.76%
20 2007-06-10 15.77 @ IA Akranes 3 1314 39.28% KR Reykjavik 1 1296 26.88% 33.84%
21 2007-07-26 15.32 @ IA Akranes 4 1355 52.28% HK Kopavogur 1 1234 17.03% 30.69%
22 2007-08-30 14.31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1453 60.61% KR Reykjavik 1 1256 12.52% 26.88%
23 2007-07-16 14.13 Valur Reykjavik 2 1418 48.59% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1273 19.47% 31.94%
24 2007-06-13 14.12 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1368 43.64% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1317 23.19% 33.17%
25 2007-08-26 13.95 Valur Reykjavik 3 1428 44.11% @ Keflavik IF 1 1319 22.82% 33.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-08-16 63.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1449 62.15% Fram Reykjavik 3 1237 11.81% 26.04%
2 2007-09-16 62.3 @ Breidablik 4 1382 25.33% FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1467 41.06% 33.61%
3 2007-09-29 61.1 @ Keflavik IF 3 1271 23.46% IA Akranes 3 1373 43.30% 33.23%
4 2007-09-17 60.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1460 49.04% IA Akranes 2 1366 19.15% 31.80%
5 2007-08-16 59.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1428 41.41% Breidablik 2 1394 25.03% 33.56%
6 2007-08-19 58.4 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1232 14.45% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1447 56.75% 28.81%
7 2007-09-29 57.6 @ Breidablik 2 1390 52.43% Fram Reykjavik 2 1268 16.94% 30.64%
8 2007-06-09 57.5 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1369 37.91% Keflavik IF 2 1360 28.12% 33.97%
9 2007-05-28 56.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1341 40.51% IA Akranes 2 1314 25.80% 33.68%
10 2007-05-24 56.4 @ Breidablik 2 1294 30.53% Keflavik IF 2 1338 35.33% 34.14%
11 2007-05-24 56.3 @ IA Akranes 2 1314 41.68% Fram Reykjavik 2 1278 24.81% 33.51%
12 2007-08-30 55.9 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1267 31.34% Keflavik IF 2 1305 34.49% 34.16%
13 2007-07-16 55.6 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1234 34.54% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1250 31.30% 34.16%
14 2007-07-24 55.2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1287 15.39% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1432 55.03% 29.58%
15 2007-05-12 53.5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1386 36.28% @ IA Akranes 2 1335 29.63% 34.09%
16 2007-07-14 53.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1443 48.58% IA Akranes 1 1353 19.47% 31.94%
17 2007-07-28 52.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1442 45.99% Keflavik IF 2 1372 21.36% 32.65%
18 2007-08-26 51.7 @ Breidablik 1 1395 56.24% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1239 14.72% 29.04%
19 2007-09-23 51.2 @ HK Kopavogur 1 1191 15.22% Breidablik 1 1393 55.33% 29.45%
20 2007-07-15 51.1 @ Keflavik IF 1 1375 51.64% KR Reykjavik 1 1259 17.43% 30.93%
21 2007-07-25 50.9 @ Breidablik 1 1363 50.05% KR Reykjavik 1 1261 18.47% 31.48%
22 2007-05-13 50.6 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1352 43.73% Fram Reykjavik 1 1300 23.12% 33.15%
23 2007-09-29 50.6 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1251 21.29% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1375 46.09% 32.63%
24 2007-06-19 50.5 @ IA Akranes 2 1299 25.58% Valur Reykjavik 1 1382 40.77% 33.65%
25 2007-08-16 50.5 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1219 22.36% Keflavik IF 1 1332 44.69% 32.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-09-29 31.6 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1481 69.49% HK Kopavogur 0 1194 8.86% 21.65%
2 2007-08-08 32.4 Valur Reykjavik 3 1408 48.64% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1263 19.43% 31.93%
3 2007-05-24 32.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1405 50.19% HK Kopavogur 0 1302 18.38% 31.44%
4 2007-05-28 33.0 @ Keflavik IF 3 1338 45.01% HK Kopavogur 0 1276 22.11% 32.88%
5 2007-06-26 33.5 @ Breidablik 3 1321 42.89% HK Kopavogur 0 1276 23.80% 33.31%
6 2007-08-30 33.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1453 60.61% KR Reykjavik 1 1256 12.52% 26.88%
7 2007-06-14 34.2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1442 50.68% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1280 18.05% 31.27%
8 2007-09-23 34.3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1343 42.15% Keflavik IF 0 1303 24.41% 33.44%
9 2007-05-29 34.4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1430 49.44% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1279 18.88% 31.68%
10 2007-07-16 34.4 Valur Reykjavik 2 1418 48.59% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1273 19.47% 31.94%
11 2007-08-26 34.6 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1239 37.51% HK Kopavogur 0 1234 28.49% 34.01%
12 2007-09-02 35.2 Valur Reykjavik 5 1442 55.07% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1242 15.37% 29.56%
13 2007-09-23 35.4 @ IA Akranes 1 1367 54.59% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1226 15.65% 29.77%
14 2007-07-03 35.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1431 57.58% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1263 14.01% 28.41%
15 2007-07-26 36.3 @ IA Akranes 4 1355 52.28% HK Kopavogur 1 1234 17.03% 30.69%
16 2007-06-14 37.0 @ Breidablik 3 1296 31.87% IA Akranes 0 1330 33.96% 34.18%
17 2007-06-26 37.0 IA Akranes 3 1311 31.52% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1294 34.32% 34.17%
18 2007-06-20 37.2 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1256 35.13% KR Reykjavik 0 1267 30.72% 34.14%
19 2007-07-16 37.5 Breidablik 3 1332 31.04% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1318 34.81% 34.16%
20 2007-06-14 37.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1343 47.25% HK Kopavogur 0 1263 20.43% 32.32%
21 2007-07-04 37.7 Valur Reykjavik 4 1401 49.19% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1251 19.05% 31.76%
22 2007-09-29 37.8 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1433 56.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1220 14.52% 28.87%
23 2007-08-09 38.6 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1310 43.53% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1260 23.28% 33.19%
24 2007-08-09 39.1 Breidablik 3 1361 28.70% @ Keflavik IF 0 1365 37.28% 34.02%
25 2007-05-20 39.6 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1296 28.45% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1301 37.54% 34.00%