1948-49 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Drumconda

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Drumconda

9.13 points above expected

29 points · 19.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sligo Rovers

8.22 points below expected

13 points · 21.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Drumconda	18	12	5	1	29	34	23	+11	19.87	+9.13
2	Shelbourne	18	9	5	4	23	39	23	+16	22.15	+0.85
3	Dundalk	18	9	5	4	23	33	24	+9	20.30	+2.70
4	Shamrock Rovers	18	6	8	4	20	33	25	+8	18.48	+1.52
5	Transport	18	5	8	5	18	35	41	-6	15.26	+2.74
6	Limerick	18	6	5	7	17	27	35	-8	16.07	+0.93
7	Waterford	18	7	1	10	15	39	34	+5	17.13	-2.13
8	Sligo Rovers	18	4	5	9	13	31	37	-6	21.22	-8.22
9	Cork Athletic	18	6	1	11	13	33	41	-8	15.98	-2.98
10	Bohemian	18	2	5	11	9	28	49	-21	13.54	-4.54

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Drumconda	29	19.87	+9.13
2	Transport	18	15.26	+2.74
3	Dundalk	23	20.30	+2.70
4	Shamrock Rovers	20	18.48	+1.52
5	Limerick	17	16.07	+0.93

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sligo Rovers	13	21.22	-8.22
2	Bohemian	9	13.54	-4.54
3	Cork Athletic	13	15.98	-2.98
4	Waterford	15	17.13	-2.13
5	Shelbourne	23	22.15	+0.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Waterford	3	Jan 9 – Jan 23	1 in 42
2	Shelbourne	4	Dec 18 – Jan 8	1 in 39
3	Shamrock Rovers	3	Apr 3 – Apr 23	1 in 23
4	Dundalk	4	Jan 23 – Feb 13	1 in 19
5	Drumconda	3	Dec 27 – Jan 9	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sligo Rovers	5	Jan 2 – Jan 30	1 in 1,857
2	Cork Athletic	5	Jan 30 – Mar 6	1 in 76
3	Bohemian	5	Jan 8 – Feb 6	1 in 46
4	Waterford	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 24
5	Shelbourne	2	Apr 21 – Apr 23	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Drumconda	13	Jan 23 – Apr 23	1 in 117
2	Shamrock Rovers	9	Feb 13 – Apr 23	1 in 36
3	Transport	5	Mar 20 – Apr 19	1 in 32
4	Dundalk	9	Dec 19 – Feb 13	1 in 29
5	Limerick	6	Feb 27 – Apr 3	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bohemian	14	Jan 8 – Apr 23	1 in 31
2	Sligo Rovers	6	Mar 13 – Apr 24	1 in 20
3	Shamrock Rovers	6	Dec 19 – Jan 23	1 in 20
4	Transport	6	Feb 6 – Mar 27	1 in 8
5	Shelbourne	3	Apr 21 – Apr 28	1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Drumconda	1420	29	+29	9	6.0	+3.0
Dundalk	1393	23	-26	5	6.1	-1.1
Shelbourne	1428	23	-25	4	6.1	-2.1
Shamrock Rovers	1416	20	+56	8	5.0	+3.0
Transport	1275	18	+34	6	3.5	+2.5
Limerick	1264	17	-32	4	4.9	-0.9
Waterford	1352	15	-8	3	4.8	-1.8
Cork Athletic	1267	13	-25	3	4.2	-1.2
Sligo Rovers	1340	13	-20	3	5.3	-2.3
Bohemian	1191	9	-8	3	3.1	-0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	CA	DRU	DUN	LIM	SR	SHE	SR	TRA	WAT
Bohemian	—	0-1-1 2.22	0-0-2 1.55	0-1-1 1.46	0-0-2 2.26	1-1-0 1.85	0-1-1 1.68	0-0-2 1.57	0-1-1 2.50	1-0-1 2.27
Cork Athletic	1-1-0 3.22	—	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 2.07	1-0-1 2.69	0-0-2 2.26	1-0-1 1.71	1-0-1 2.03	2-0-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.78
Drumconda	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 3.34	—	1-1-0 2.54	1-1-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.87	1-1-0 2.25	2-0-0 2.55	1-1-0 3.58	1-0-1 3.37
Dundalk	1-1-0 4.01	2-0-0 3.38	0-1-1 2.90	—	1-0-1 3.39	1-0-1 3.08	1-1-0 2.22	1-1-0 2.65	0-1-1 3.37	2-0-0 3.21
Limerick	2-0-0 3.18	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 2.10	1-0-1 2.06	—	0-2-0 2.14	0-0-2 1.71	1-1-0 1.82	0-1-1 3.00	1-0-1 2.44
Shamrock Rovers	0-1-1 3.60	2-0-0 3.17	0-1-1 2.57	1-0-1 2.36	0-2-0 3.30	—	1-0-1 2.25	0-2-0 2.37	0-2-0 3.43	2-0-0 3.00
Shelbourne	1-1-0 3.79	1-0-1 3.74	0-1-1 3.19	0-1-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.75	1-0-1 3.18	—	2-0-0 2.54	1-1-0 3.53	1-1-0 3.35
Sligo Rovers	2-0-0 3.89	1-0-1 3.41	0-0-2 2.89	0-1-1 2.79	0-1-1 3.63	0-2-0 3.07	0-0-2 2.89	—	0-1-1 3.65	1-0-1 3.68
Transport	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.71	0-1-1 1.87	1-1-0 2.08	1-1-0 2.43	0-2-0 2.01	0-1-1 1.92	1-1-0 1.80	—	1-0-1 2.23
Waterford	1-0-1 3.18	2-0-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 2.23	1-0-1 3.00	0-0-2 2.43	0-1-1 2.09	1-0-1 1.77	1-0-1 3.21	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.16	+5.9
Allowed	0.78	-5.7
Differential	0.70	+4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	4.44%	3.33%	1.67%	0.56%	1.11%	14.44%
1	4.44%	12.22%	7.22%	3.33%	2.22%	0.56%	30.00%
2	3.33%	7.22%	10.00%	5.56%	0.56%	3.33%	30.00%
3	1.67%	3.33%	5.56%	1.11%	2.78%	—	14.44%
4	0.56%	2.22%	0.56%	2.78%	—	—	6.11%
5+	1.11%	0.56%	3.33%	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	14.44%	30.00%	30.00%	14.44%	6.11%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.84	1.84	+0.00
SD	1.35	1.35	1.87
CV	0.73	0.73	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	—	5.56%	44.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	2.72	-1.17
SD	0.86	1.41	1.69
CV	0.55	0.52	—
Max	3	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.28	-0.44
SD	1.50	1.71	2.15
CV	0.82	0.75	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.28	+0.61
SD	1.18	1.13	1.09
CV	0.63	0.88	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	44.44%	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.33	+0.50
SD	1.29	1.08	1.58
CV	0.71	0.81	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	38.89%	38.89%	5.56%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.94	-0.44
SD	1.34	1.47	1.82
CV	0.89	0.76	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.39	+0.44
SD	1.20	0.92	1.29
CV	0.65	0.66	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	33.33%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	1.28	+0.89
SD	1.72	1.02	1.91
CV	0.80	0.80	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	44.44%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.06	-0.33
SD	1.23	1.16	1.50
CV	0.71	0.57	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	1	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	27.78%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.28	-0.33
SD	1.51	1.49	2.11
CV	0.78	0.65	—
Max	6	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	1.89	+0.28
SD	1.62	1.32	2.52
CV	0.75	0.70	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Shelbourne	1428	23	22.15	+0.85	61.0%	15	16	20	23	24	27	29
Drumconda	1420	29	19.87	+9.13	100.0%	12	15	18	19	22	26	29
Shamrock Rovers	1416	20	18.48	+1.52	72.0%	7	13	16	18	21	25	26
Dundalk	1393	23	20.30	+2.70	84.0%	12	14	18	20	23	27	30
Waterford	1352	15	17.13	-2.13	34.0%	10	11	15	18	19	22	26
Sligo Rovers	1340	13	21.22	-8.22	1.0%	12	16	19	21	24	26	31
Transport	1275	18	15.26	+2.74	87.0%	7	9	14	15	17	20	23
Cork Athletic	1267	13	15.98	-2.98	24.0%	8	10	14	16	18	21	22
Limerick	1264	17	16.07	+0.93	63.0%	9	11	13	17	18	21	23
Bohemian	1191	9	13.54	-4.54	10.0%	7	8	11	13	15	20	23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.67%

No Edge

40.00%26.67%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.

235 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.11 goals

Neutral

-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.7

Wide Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

15%

Drumconda, 4th of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.33/gm

Runaway

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.71 * Some Luck: 2.71 to 4.06 * Lucky: 4.06 to 5.42 * Wild Swing: 5.42 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.51 * Close: 1.51 to 2.27 * Off: 2.27 to 3.02 * Way Off: 3.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.51 points

Lucky

03.398

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.80

01.894

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

100.00%

Drumconda

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

1.00%

Sligo Rovers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 81.83

1.63

Coin-Flip Parity

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

80%

Even

50%82%100%

Close Games

Expected

67%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Occasional

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.29

Very Even

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.74

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.44

Some Carryover

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.80

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.74

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.099

Well Within Noise

00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Drumconda	15.00%	10.00%	13.00%	23.00%	13.00%	13.00%	8.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Shelbourne	32.00%	32.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	5.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Dundalk	18.00%	15.00%	19.00%	11.00%	10.00%	10.00%	9.00%	3.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Shamrock Rovers	7.00%	13.00%	10.00%	15.00%	15.00%	14.00%	10.00%	4.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Transport	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%	5.00%	5.00%	17.00%	26.00%	22.00%	15.00%
Limerick	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	13.00%	6.00%	15.00%	16.00%	13.00%	13.00%	17.00%
Waterford	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	11.00%	17.00%	10.00%	9.00%	17.00%	12.00%	6.00%
Sligo Rovers	22.00%	15.00%	21.00%	11.00%	11.00%	10.00%	3.00%	4.00%	3.00%	—
Cork Athletic	—	2.00%	9.00%	5.00%	10.00%	14.00%	18.00%	19.00%	11.00%	12.00%
Bohemian	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	6.00%	4.00%	7.00%	9.00%	23.00%	45.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Bohemian	100%
Cork Athletic	100%
Drumconda	100%
Dundalk	100%
Limerick	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Shelbourne	100%
Sligo Rovers	100%
Transport	100%
Waterford	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1948-12-12	Dundalk	W 3-2	51.6	1301	1351	33.69%	28.26%	38.05%	-0.11	+9.1	2
1948-12-12	@ Limerick	L 2-3	51.6	1351	1301	38.05%	28.26%	33.69%	+0.11	-9.1	0
1948-12-12	Cork Athletic	W 3-1	38.9	1359	1296	48.77%	27.93%	23.30%	+0.37	+11.6	2
1948-12-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	38.9	1296	1359	23.30%	27.93%	48.77%	-0.37	-11.6	0
1948-12-12	Bohemian	W 4-3	52.6	1296	1294	40.86%	28.27%	30.87%	+0.10	+7.7	2
1948-12-12	@ Transport	L 3-4	52.6	1294	1296	30.87%	28.27%	40.86%	-0.10	-7.7	0
1948-12-12	Sligo Rovers	L 1-2	42.8	1300	1446	22.07%	27.57%	50.36%	-0.52	-6.4	0
1948-12-12	@ Waterford	W 2-1	42.8	1446	1300	50.36%	27.57%	22.07%	+0.52	+6.4	2
1948-12-18	Transport	W 3-1	39.3	1355	1303	47.39%	28.02%	24.59%	+0.32	+12.1	2
1948-12-18	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	39.3	1303	1355	24.59%	28.02%	47.39%	-0.32	-12.1	2
1948-12-19	Waterford	W 3-2	49.2	1287	1294	39.78%	28.28%	31.94%	+0.07	+8.0	2
1948-12-19	@ Bohemian	L 2-3	49.2	1294	1287	31.94%	28.28%	39.78%	-0.07	-8.1	0
1948-12-19	Limerick	W 2-0	37.0	1284	1310	37.09%	28.29%	34.61%	-0.01	+18.0	2
1948-12-19	@ Cork Athletic	L 0-2	37.0	1310	1284	34.61%	28.29%	37.09%	+0.01	-18.0	2
1948-12-19	Drumconda	D 0-0	48.2	1342	1350	39.68%	28.28%	32.04%	+0.07	-0.4	1
1948-12-19	@ Dundalk	D 0-0	48.2	1350	1342	32.04%	28.28%	39.68%	-0.07	+0.4	1
1948-12-19	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	54.1	1452	1371	50.82%	27.76%	21.42%	+0.45	-1.6	3
1948-12-19	@ Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	54.1	1371	1452	21.42%	27.76%	50.82%	-0.45	+1.6	3
1948-12-26	Bohemian	W 3-1	37.2	1451	1295	58.24%	26.78%	14.97%	+0.76	+8.0	5
1948-12-26	@ Sligo Rovers	L 1-3	37.2	1295	1451	14.97%	26.78%	58.24%	-0.76	-8.0	2
1948-12-27	Cork Athletic	W 1-0	38.4	1350	1302	46.91%	28.05%	25.04%	+0.30	+7.5	3
1948-12-27	@ Drumconda	L 0-1	38.4	1302	1350	25.04%	28.05%	46.91%	-0.30	-7.5	2
1948-12-27	Limerick	D 0-0	48.1	1372	1292	50.68%	27.78%	21.55%	+0.44	-1.8	4
1948-12-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 0-0	48.1	1292	1372	21.55%	27.78%	50.68%	-0.44	+1.8	3
1948-12-27	Dundalk	D 3-3	60.3	1291	1342	33.66%	28.26%	38.08%	-0.12	+0.2	3
1948-12-27	@ Transport	D 3-3	60.3	1342	1291	38.08%	28.26%	33.66%	+0.12	-0.1	2
1948-12-27	Shelbourne	L 2-3	49.0	1286	1367	29.48%	28.13%	42.39%	-0.25	-7.6	0
1948-12-27	@ Waterford	W 3-2	49.0	1367	1286	42.39%	28.13%	29.48%	+0.25	+7.6	4
1949-01-01	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	48.0	1287	1371	29.22%	28.12%	42.66%	-0.26	+10.5	4
1949-01-01	@ Bohemian	L 1-2	48.0	1371	1287	42.66%	28.12%	29.22%	+0.26	-10.5	4
1949-01-02	Transport	W 3-0	33.2	1294	1291	41.15%	28.26%	30.59%	+0.11	+23.9	4
1949-01-02	@ Cork Athletic	L 0-3	33.2	1291	1294	30.59%	28.26%	41.15%	-0.11	-23.9	3
1949-01-02	Waterford	W 4-0	30.6	1341	1278	48.74%	27.93%	23.33%	+0.37	+25.4	4
1949-01-02	@ Dundalk	L 0-4	30.6	1278	1341	23.33%	27.93%	48.74%	-0.37	-25.4	0
1949-01-02	Drumconda	L 0-1	40.5	1294	1357	31.86%	28.21%	39.93%	-0.17	-9.0	3
1949-01-02	@ Limerick	W 1-0	40.5	1357	1294	39.93%	28.21%	31.86%	+0.17	+9.0	5
1949-01-02	Sligo Rovers	W 2-1	51.0	1375	1459	29.21%	28.11%	42.68%	-0.26	+10.5	6
1949-01-02	@ Shelbourne	L 1-2	51.0	1459	1375	42.68%	28.11%	29.21%	+0.26	-10.5	5
1949-01-08	Shelbourne	L 0-6	34.8	1297	1385	28.68%	28.09%	43.23%	-0.28	-43.5	4
1949-01-08	@ Bohemian	W 6-0	34.8	1385	1297	43.23%	28.09%	28.68%	+0.28	+43.5	8
1949-01-09	Drumconda	L 2-3	53.0	1360	1366	39.84%	28.28%	31.88%	+0.07	-9.5	4
1949-01-09	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 3-2	53.0	1366	1360	31.88%	28.28%	39.84%	-0.07	+9.5	7
1949-01-09	Dundalk	L 3-4	61.6	1448	1367	50.80%	27.77%	21.43%	+0.45	-11.3	5
1949-01-09	@ Sligo Rovers	W 4-3	61.6	1367	1448	21.43%	27.77%	50.80%	-0.45	+11.3	6
1949-01-09	Limerick	W 6-2	40.6	1267	1285	38.30%	28.29%	33.41%	+0.02	+23.5	5
1949-01-09	@ Transport	L 2-6	40.6	1285	1267	33.41%	28.29%	38.30%	-0.02	-23.5	3
1949-01-09	Cork Athletic	W 1-0	42.4	1253	1318	31.58%	28.21%	40.22%	-0.18	+10.6	2
1949-01-09	@ Waterford	L 0-1	42.4	1318	1253	40.22%	28.21%	31.58%	+0.18	-10.7	4
1949-01-15	Transport	D 2-2	56.0	1351	1291	48.31%	27.96%	23.73%	+0.35	-1.0	5
1949-01-15	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	56.0	1291	1351	23.73%	27.96%	48.31%	-0.35	+1.0	6
1949-01-16	Bohemian	W 3-1	38.5	1308	1254	47.60%	28.01%	24.39%	+0.33	+12.0	6
1949-01-16	@ Cork Athletic	L 1-3	38.5	1254	1308	24.39%	28.01%	47.60%	-0.33	-12.0	4
1949-01-16	Shelbourne	D 1-1	53.5	1378	1429	33.60%	28.26%	38.14%	-0.12	+0.2	7
1949-01-16	@ Dundalk	D 1-1	53.5	1429	1378	38.14%	28.26%	33.60%	+0.12	-0.2	9
1949-01-16	Waterford	L 1-4	45.4	1376	1263	54.12%	27.41%	18.47%	+0.58	-31.7	7
1949-01-16	@ Drumconda	W 4-1	45.4	1263	1376	18.47%	27.41%	54.12%	-0.58	+31.7	4
1949-01-16	Sligo Rovers	W 3-2	56.5	1261	1437	19.20%	27.19%	53.61%	-0.65	+12.1	5
1949-01-16	@ Limerick	L 2-3	56.5	1437	1261	53.61%	27.19%	19.20%	+0.65	-12.1	5
1949-01-22	Limerick	L 2-3	50.2	1242	1274	36.32%	28.29%	35.39%	-0.04	-8.8	4
1949-01-22	@ Bohemian	W 3-2	50.2	1274	1242	35.39%	28.29%	36.32%	+0.04	+8.8	7
1949-01-23	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	44.3	1378	1350	44.49%	28.16%	27.34%	+0.22	+7.6	9
1949-01-23	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	44.3	1350	1378	27.34%	28.16%	44.49%	-0.22	-7.6	5
1949-01-23	Cork Athletic	L 0-1	48.1	1429	1320	53.75%	27.46%	18.80%	+0.56	-13.6	9
1949-01-23	@ Shelbourne	W 1-0	48.1	1320	1429	18.80%	27.46%	53.75%	-0.56	+13.6	8
1949-01-23	Drumconda	L 0-1	47.6	1425	1344	50.70%	27.77%	21.53%	+0.44	-12.9	5
1949-01-23	@ Sligo Rovers	W 1-0	47.6	1344	1425	21.53%	27.77%	50.70%	-0.44	+12.9	9
1949-01-23	Transport	W 5-0	33.4	1295	1292	41.13%	28.26%	30.61%	+0.11	+38.5	6
1949-01-23	@ Waterford	L 0-5	33.4	1292	1295	30.61%	28.26%	41.13%	-0.11	-38.5	6
1949-01-29	Waterford	W 4-1	38.8	1342	1333	41.87%	28.24%	29.88%	+0.14	+19.8	7
1949-01-29	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	38.8	1333	1342	29.88%	28.24%	41.87%	-0.14	-19.8	6
1949-01-30	Dundalk	L 0-2	37.8	1333	1386	33.36%	28.25%	38.39%	-0.13	-17.5	8
1949-01-30	@ Cork Athletic	W 2-0	37.8	1386	1333	38.39%	28.25%	33.36%	+0.13	+17.5	11
1949-01-30	Bohemian	W 3-2	44.6	1357	1233	55.27%	27.26%	17.47%	+0.63	+5.0	11
1949-01-30	@ Drumconda	L 2-3	44.6	1233	1357	17.47%	27.26%	55.27%	-0.63	-5.0	4
1949-01-30	Shelbourne	L 0-2	34.4	1282	1415	23.46%	27.72%	48.82%	-0.47	-13.4	7
1949-01-30	@ Limerick	W 2-0	34.4	1415	1282	48.82%	27.72%	23.46%	+0.47	+13.4	11
1949-01-30	Sligo Rovers	W 4-3	59.3	1253	1412	20.82%	27.42%	51.77%	-0.58	+11.5	8
1949-01-30	@ Transport	L 3-4	59.3	1412	1253	51.77%	27.42%	20.82%	+0.58	-11.4	5
1949-02-05	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	39.8	1428	1362	49.11%	27.90%	22.99%	+0.38	+7.0	13
1949-02-05	@ Shelbourne	L 0-1	39.8	1362	1428	22.99%	27.90%	49.11%	-0.38	-7.0	7
1949-02-06	Dundalk	L 1-4	34.8	1228	1403	19.22%	27.19%	53.58%	-0.65	-13.9	4
1949-02-06	@ Bohemian	W 4-1	34.8	1403	1228	53.58%	27.19%	19.22%	+0.65	+13.9	13
1949-02-06	Cork Athletic	W 5-2	40.2	1400	1316	51.15%	27.73%	21.11%	+0.46	+13.1	7
1949-02-06	@ Sligo Rovers	L 2-5	40.2	1316	1400	21.11%	27.73%	51.15%	-0.46	-13.1	8
1949-02-06	Drumconda	D 1-1	50.9	1265	1362	27.53%	28.03%	44.44%	-0.32	+0.9	9
1949-02-06	@ Transport	D 1-1	50.9	1362	1265	44.44%	28.03%	27.53%	+0.32	-0.9	12
1949-02-06	Limerick	L 1-2	48.5	1314	1269	46.50%	28.07%	25.43%	+0.29	-11.3	6
1949-02-06	@ Waterford	W 2-1	48.5	1269	1314	25.43%	28.07%	46.50%	-0.29	+11.3	9
1949-02-12	Drumconda	L 3-4	60.9	1435	1361	49.98%	27.84%	22.19%	+0.41	-11.1	13
1949-02-12	@ Shelbourne	W 4-3	60.9	1361	1435	22.19%	27.84%	49.98%	-0.41	+11.1	14
1949-02-13	Transport	D 2-2	55.0	1214	1266	33.48%	28.25%	38.26%	-0.12	+0.2	5
1949-02-13	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	55.0	1266	1214	38.26%	28.25%	33.48%	+0.12	-0.2	10
1949-02-13	Shamrock Rovers	L 3-4	53.9	1303	1355	33.42%	28.25%	38.33%	-0.12	-8.1	8
1949-02-13	@ Cork Athletic	W 4-3	53.9	1355	1303	38.33%	28.25%	33.42%	+0.12	+8.1	9
1949-02-13	Limerick	W 2-1	40.2	1417	1280	56.52%	27.08%	16.41%	+0.68	+5.0	15
1949-02-13	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	40.2	1280	1417	16.41%	27.08%	56.52%	-0.68	-5.0	9
1949-02-13	Waterford	L 0-3	41.3	1413	1302	53.97%	27.43%	18.60%	+0.57	-37.4	7
1949-02-13	@ Sligo Rovers	W 3-0	41.3	1302	1413	18.60%	27.43%	53.97%	-0.57	+37.4	8
1949-02-26	Dundalk	W 1-0	44.5	1372	1422	33.73%	28.26%	38.01%	-0.11	+10.2	16
1949-02-26	@ Drumconda	L 0-1	44.5	1422	1372	38.01%	28.26%	33.73%	+0.11	-10.2	15
1949-02-27	Cork Athletic	W 5-2	42.8	1275	1295	38.05%	28.29%	33.66%	+0.02	+18.7	11
1949-02-27	@ Limerick	L 2-5	42.8	1295	1275	33.66%	28.29%	38.05%	-0.02	-18.7	8
1949-02-27	Sligo Rovers	D 2-2	57.1	1363	1376	38.92%	28.29%	32.79%	+0.04	-0.2	10
1949-02-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	57.1	1376	1363	32.79%	28.29%	38.92%	-0.04	+0.2	8
1949-02-27	Shelbourne	D 2-2	56.6	1266	1424	20.79%	27.42%	51.79%	-0.58	+1.3	11
1949-02-27	@ Transport	D 2-2	56.6	1424	1266	51.79%	27.42%	20.79%	+0.58	-1.3	14
1949-02-27	Bohemian	W 5-2	37.5	1340	1214	55.40%	27.24%	17.36%	+0.63	+11.1	10
1949-02-27	@ Waterford	L 2-5	37.5	1214	1340	17.36%	27.24%	55.40%	-0.63	-11.1	5
1949-03-06	Sligo Rovers	L 1-2	40.1	1203	1376	19.42%	27.22%	53.35%	-0.64	-5.7	5
1949-03-06	@ Bohemian	W 2-1	40.1	1376	1203	53.35%	27.22%	19.42%	+0.64	+5.7	10
1949-03-06	Drumconda	L 2-4	44.4	1276	1383	26.39%	27.96%	45.65%	-0.36	-11.4	8
1949-03-06	@ Cork Athletic	W 4-2	44.4	1383	1276	45.65%	27.96%	26.39%	+0.36	+11.4	18
1949-03-06	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	51.2	1294	1363	31.17%	28.19%	40.64%	-0.19	+0.5	12
1949-03-06	@ Limerick	D 1-1	51.2	1363	1294	40.64%	28.19%	31.17%	+0.19	-0.5	11
1949-03-12	Bohemian	D 2-2	55.8	1362	1197	59.03%	26.64%	14.34%	+0.80	-2.0	12
1949-03-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	55.8	1197	1362	14.34%	26.64%	59.03%	-0.80	+2.0	6
1949-03-13	Limerick	D 1-1	51.7	1394	1294	52.77%	27.57%	19.66%	+0.52	-1.9	19
1949-03-13	@ Drumconda	D 1-1	51.7	1294	1394	19.66%	27.57%	52.77%	-0.52	+1.9	13
1949-03-13	Shelbourne	L 1-4	42.5	1382	1423	34.98%	28.28%	36.74%	-0.08	-22.2	10
1949-03-13	@ Sligo Rovers	W 4-1	42.5	1423	1382	36.74%	28.28%	34.98%	+0.08	+22.2	16
1949-03-13	Cork Athletic	L 2-6	42.8	1267	1264	41.04%	28.26%	30.70%	+0.11	-27.4	11
1949-03-13	@ Transport	W 6-2	42.8	1264	1267	30.70%	28.26%	41.04%	-0.11	+27.4	10
1949-03-13	Dundalk	L 1-2	46.3	1351	1412	32.18%	28.22%	39.59%	-0.16	-8.5	10
1949-03-13	@ Waterford	W 2-1	46.3	1412	1351	39.59%	28.22%	32.18%	+0.16	+8.5	17
1949-03-19	Bohemian	D 0-0	48.7	1445	1199	65.30%	25.03%	9.66%	+1.15	-3.8	17
1949-03-19	@ Shelbourne	D 0-0	48.7	1199	1445	9.66%	25.03%	65.30%	-1.15	+3.8	7
1949-03-20	Waterford	L 0-2	37.0	1292	1342	33.64%	28.26%	38.10%	-0.12	-17.6	10
1949-03-20	@ Cork Athletic	W 2-0	37.0	1342	1292	38.10%	28.26%	33.64%	+0.12	+17.6	12
1949-03-20	Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	53.0	1421	1360	48.44%	27.95%	23.61%	+0.36	-1.3	18
1949-03-20	@ Dundalk	D 1-1	53.0	1360	1421	23.61%	27.95%	48.44%	-0.36	+1.4	11
1949-03-20	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	52.5	1392	1360	44.90%	28.15%	26.95%	+0.23	-1.0	20
1949-03-20	@ Drumconda	D 1-1	52.5	1360	1392	26.95%	28.15%	44.90%	-0.23	+1.0	13
1949-03-20	Transport	D 1-1	50.4	1296	1240	47.96%	27.98%	24.05%	+0.34	-1.3	14
1949-03-20	@ Limerick	D 1-1	50.4	1240	1296	24.05%	27.98%	47.96%	-0.34	+1.3	12
1949-03-26	Cork Athletic	D 2-2	55.0	1203	1274	30.86%	28.18%	40.96%	-0.20	+0.4	8
1949-03-26	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	55.0	1274	1203	40.96%	28.18%	30.86%	+0.20	-0.4	11
1949-03-27	Limerick	D 1-1	51.2	1361	1295	49.07%	27.91%	23.03%	+0.38	-1.4	12
1949-03-27	@ Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	51.2	1295	1361	23.03%	27.91%	49.07%	-0.38	+1.4	15
1949-03-27	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	50.8	1241	1361	24.82%	27.84%	47.35%	-0.41	+1.2	13
1949-03-27	@ Transport	D 1-1	50.8	1361	1241	47.35%	27.84%	24.82%	+0.41	-1.2	14
1949-04-02	Sligo Rovers	W 2-1	44.5	1391	1360	44.85%	28.15%	27.00%	+0.23	+7.5	22
1949-04-02	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	44.5	1360	1391	27.00%	28.15%	44.85%	-0.23	-7.5	12
1949-04-03	Shelbourne	L 2-5	39.7	1274	1441	19.94%	27.30%	52.76%	-0.62	-12.4	11
1949-04-03	@ Cork Athletic	W 5-2	39.7	1441	1274	52.76%	27.30%	19.94%	+0.62	+12.4	19
1949-04-03	Bohemian	W 2-1	40.2	1296	1204	52.05%	27.65%	20.30%	+0.49	+6.0	17
1949-04-03	@ Limerick	L 1-2	40.2	1204	1296	20.30%	27.65%	52.05%	-0.49	-6.0	8
1949-04-03	Dundalk	W 3-0	38.2	1360	1419	32.44%	28.23%	39.33%	-0.15	+28.7	16
1949-04-03	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	38.2	1419	1360	39.33%	28.23%	32.44%	+0.15	-28.7	18
1949-04-03	Waterford	W 2-0	40.6	1242	1360	25.09%	27.86%	47.05%	-0.40	+22.8	15
1949-04-03	@ Transport	L 0-2	40.6	1360	1242	47.05%	27.86%	25.09%	+0.40	-22.8	12
1949-04-10	Drumconda	L 2-3	50.9	1337	1399	32.14%	28.22%	39.64%	-0.16	-8.1	12
1949-04-10	@ Waterford	W 3-2	50.9	1399	1337	39.64%	28.22%	32.14%	+0.16	+8.1	24
1949-04-13	Shelbourne	D 2-2	59.8	1407	1454	34.12%	28.27%	37.61%	-0.10	+0.1	25
1949-04-13	@ Drumconda	D 2-2	59.8	1454	1407	37.61%	28.27%	34.12%	+0.10	-0.1	20
1949-04-16	Drumconda	L 1-3	36.0	1198	1407	16.34%	26.67%	56.99%	-0.79	-8.6	8
1949-04-16	@ Bohemian	W 3-1	36.0	1407	1198	56.99%	26.67%	16.34%	+0.79	+8.6	27
1949-04-17	Cork Athletic	W 2-1	40.0	1391	1261	55.76%	27.19%	17.05%	+0.65	+5.2	20
1949-04-17	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	40.0	1261	1391	17.05%	27.19%	55.76%	-0.65	-5.2	11
1949-04-17	Transport	D 1-1	51.0	1352	1265	51.47%	27.70%	20.83%	+0.47	-1.7	13
1949-04-17	@ Sligo Rovers	D 1-1	51.0	1265	1352	20.83%	27.70%	51.47%	-0.47	+1.7	16
1949-04-17	Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	50.7	1329	1389	32.40%	28.23%	39.37%	-0.15	-8.1	12
1949-04-17	@ Waterford	W 3-2	50.7	1389	1329	39.37%	28.23%	32.40%	+0.15	+8.1	18
1949-04-18	Limerick	W 3-1	37.5	1454	1302	57.83%	26.86%	15.31%	+0.74	+8.1	22
1949-04-18	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	37.5	1302	1454	15.31%	26.86%	57.83%	-0.74	-8.2	17
1949-04-19	Transport	L 1-2	51.7	1396	1267	55.77%	27.19%	17.04%	+0.65	-13.3	20
1949-04-19	@ Dundalk	W 2-1	51.7	1267	1396	17.04%	27.19%	55.77%	-0.65	+13.3	18
1949-04-21	Dundalk	L 0-1	49.3	1462	1382	50.58%	27.79%	21.64%	+0.44	-12.9	22
1949-04-21	@ Shelbourne	W 1-0	49.3	1382	1462	21.64%	27.79%	50.58%	-0.44	+12.9	22
1949-04-23	Bohemian	D 2-2	56.2	1395	1189	62.43%	25.87%	11.70%	+0.98	-2.3	23
1949-04-23	@ Dundalk	D 2-2	56.2	1189	1395	11.70%	25.87%	62.43%	-0.98	+2.3	9
1949-04-23	Transport	W 2-1	40.2	1415	1280	56.39%	27.10%	16.52%	+0.68	+5.0	29
1949-04-23	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	40.2	1280	1415	16.52%	27.10%	56.39%	-0.68	-5.0	18
1949-04-23	Shelbourne	W 2-0	42.0	1397	1449	33.41%	28.25%	38.33%	-0.12	+19.4	20
1949-04-23	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	42.0	1449	1397	38.33%	28.25%	33.41%	+0.12	-19.4	22
1949-04-24	Sligo Rovers	W 3-2	53.0	1256	1351	27.90%	28.05%	44.05%	-0.30	+10.2	13
1949-04-24	@ Cork Athletic	L 2-3	53.0	1351	1256	44.05%	28.05%	27.90%	+0.30	-10.2	13
1949-04-24	Waterford	L 1-5	39.3	1294	1321	37.00%	28.29%	34.70%	-0.02	-29.9	17
1949-04-24	@ Limerick	W 5-1	39.3	1321	1294	34.70%	28.29%	37.00%	+0.02	+29.8	14
1949-04-28	Waterford	D 2-2	58.0	1430	1351	50.50%	27.79%	21.71%	+0.43	-1.2	23
1949-04-28	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	58.0	1351	1430	21.71%	27.79%	50.50%	-0.43	+1.2	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1949-04-19	17.04%	Transport	1267	2	@ Dundalk	1396	1
2	1949-01-16	18.47%	Waterford	1263	4	@ Drumconda	1376	1
3	1949-02-13	18.60%	Waterford	1302	3	@ Sligo Rovers	1413	0
4	1949-01-23	18.80%	Cork Athletic	1320	1	@ Shelbourne	1429	0
5	1949-01-16	19.20%	@ Limerick	1261	3	Sligo Rovers	1437	2
6	1949-01-30	20.82%	@ Transport	1253	4	Sligo Rovers	1412	3
7	1949-01-09	21.43%	Dundalk	1367	4	@ Sligo Rovers	1448	3
8	1949-01-23	21.53%	Drumconda	1344	1	@ Sligo Rovers	1425	0
9	1949-04-21	21.64%	Dundalk	1382	1	@ Shelbourne	1462	0
10	1949-02-12	22.19%	Drumconda	1361	4	@ Shelbourne	1435	3
11	1949-04-03	25.09%	@ Transport	1242	2	Waterford	1360	0
12	1949-02-06	25.43%	Limerick	1269	2	@ Waterford	1314	1
13	1949-04-24	27.90%	@ Cork Athletic	1256	3	Sligo Rovers	1351	2
14	1949-01-02	29.21%	@ Shelbourne	1375	2	Sligo Rovers	1459	1
15	1949-01-01	29.22%	@ Bohemian	1287	2	Shamrock Rovers	1371	1
16	1949-03-13	30.70%	Cork Athletic	1264	6	@ Transport	1267	2
17	1949-01-09	31.58%	@ Waterford	1253	1	Cork Athletic	1318	0
18	1949-01-09	31.88%	Drumconda	1366	3	@ Shamrock Rovers	1360	2
19	1949-04-03	32.44%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1360	3	Dundalk	1419	0
20	1949-04-23	33.41%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1397	2	Shelbourne	1449	0
21	1948-12-12	33.69%	@ Limerick	1301	3	Dundalk	1351	2
22	1949-02-26	33.73%	@ Drumconda	1372	1	Dundalk	1422	0
23	1949-04-24	34.70%	Waterford	1321	5	@ Limerick	1294	1
24	1949-01-22	35.39%	Limerick	1274	3	@ Bohemian	1242	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1949-01-08	43.47	Shelbourne	6	1385	43.23%	@ Bohemian	0	1297	28.68%	28.09%
2	1949-01-23	38.47	@ Waterford	5	1295	41.13%	Transport	0	1292	30.61%	28.26%
3	1949-02-13	37.44	Waterford	3	1302	18.60%	@ Sligo Rovers	0	1413	53.97%	27.43%
4	1949-01-16	31.65	Waterford	4	1263	18.47%	@ Drumconda	1	1376	54.12%	27.41%
5	1949-04-24	29.86	Waterford	5	1321	34.70%	@ Limerick	1	1294	37.00%	28.29%
6	1949-04-03	28.68	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1360	32.44%	Dundalk	0	1419	39.33%	28.23%
7	1949-03-13	27.40	Cork Athletic	6	1264	30.70%	@ Transport	2	1267	41.04%	28.26%
8	1949-01-02	25.38	@ Dundalk	4	1341	48.74%	Waterford	0	1278	23.33%	27.93%
9	1949-01-02	23.89	@ Cork Athletic	3	1294	41.15%	Transport	0	1291	30.59%	28.26%
10	1949-01-09	23.53	@ Transport	6	1267	38.30%	Limerick	2	1285	33.41%	28.29%
11	1949-04-03	22.79	@ Transport	2	1242	25.09%	Waterford	0	1360	47.05%	27.86%
12	1949-03-13	22.20	Shelbourne	4	1423	36.74%	@ Sligo Rovers	1	1382	34.98%	28.28%
13	1949-01-29	19.79	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1342	41.87%	Waterford	1	1333	29.88%	28.24%
14	1949-04-23	19.37	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1397	33.41%	Shelbourne	0	1449	38.33%	28.25%
15	1949-02-27	18.70	@ Limerick	5	1275	38.05%	Cork Athletic	2	1295	33.66%	28.29%
16	1948-12-19	17.99	@ Cork Athletic	2	1284	37.09%	Limerick	0	1310	34.61%	28.29%
17	1949-03-20	17.62	Waterford	2	1342	38.10%	@ Cork Athletic	0	1292	33.64%	28.26%
18	1949-01-30	17.51	Dundalk	2	1386	38.39%	@ Cork Athletic	0	1333	33.36%	28.25%
19	1949-02-06	13.93	Dundalk	4	1403	53.58%	@ Bohemian	1	1228	19.22%	27.19%
20	1949-01-23	13.62	Cork Athletic	1	1320	18.80%	@ Shelbourne	0	1429	53.75%	27.46%
21	1949-01-30	13.39	Shelbourne	2	1415	48.82%	@ Limerick	0	1282	23.46%	27.72%
22	1949-04-19	13.29	Transport	2	1267	17.04%	@ Dundalk	1	1396	55.77%	27.19%
23	1949-02-06	13.10	@ Sligo Rovers	5	1400	51.15%	Cork Athletic	2	1316	21.11%	27.73%
24	1949-01-23	12.92	Drumconda	1	1344	21.53%	@ Sligo Rovers	0	1425	50.70%	27.77%
25	1949-04-21	12.89	Dundalk	1	1382	21.64%	@ Shelbourne	0	1462	50.58%	27.79%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1949-01-09	61.6	Dundalk	4	1367	21.43%	@ Sligo Rovers	3	1448	50.80%	27.77%
2	1949-02-12	60.9	Drumconda	4	1361	22.19%	@ Shelbourne	3	1435	49.98%	27.84%
3	1948-12-27	60.3	@ Transport	3	1291	33.66%	Dundalk	3	1342	38.08%	28.26%
4	1949-04-13	59.8	@ Drumconda	2	1407	34.12%	Shelbourne	2	1454	37.61%	28.27%
5	1949-01-30	59.3	@ Transport	4	1253	20.82%	Sligo Rovers	3	1412	51.77%	27.42%
6	1949-04-28	58.0	@ Shelbourne	2	1430	50.50%	Waterford	2	1351	21.71%	27.79%
7	1949-02-27	57.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1363	38.92%	Sligo Rovers	2	1376	32.79%	28.29%
8	1949-02-27	56.6	@ Transport	2	1266	20.79%	Shelbourne	2	1424	51.79%	27.42%
9	1949-01-16	56.5	@ Limerick	3	1261	19.20%	Sligo Rovers	2	1437	53.61%	27.19%
10	1949-04-23	56.2	@ Dundalk	2	1395	62.43%	Bohemian	2	1189	11.70%	25.87%
11	1949-01-15	56.0	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1351	48.31%	Transport	2	1291	23.73%	27.96%
12	1949-03-12	55.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1362	59.03%	Bohemian	2	1197	14.34%	26.64%
13	1949-02-13	55.0	@ Bohemian	2	1214	33.48%	Transport	2	1266	38.26%	28.25%
14	1949-03-26	55.0	@ Bohemian	2	1203	30.86%	Cork Athletic	2	1274	40.96%	28.18%
15	1948-12-19	54.1	@ Sligo Rovers	1	1452	50.82%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1371	21.42%	27.76%
16	1949-02-13	53.9	Shamrock Rovers	4	1355	38.33%	@ Cork Athletic	3	1303	33.42%	28.25%
17	1949-01-16	53.5	@ Dundalk	1	1378	33.60%	Shelbourne	1	1429	38.14%	28.26%
18	1949-01-09	53.0	Drumconda	3	1366	31.88%	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1360	39.84%	28.28%
19	1949-03-20	53.0	@ Dundalk	1	1421	48.44%	Sligo Rovers	1	1360	23.61%	27.95%
20	1949-04-24	53.0	@ Cork Athletic	3	1256	27.90%	Sligo Rovers	2	1351	44.05%	28.05%
21	1948-12-12	52.6	@ Transport	4	1296	40.86%	Bohemian	3	1294	30.87%	28.27%
22	1949-03-20	52.5	@ Drumconda	1	1392	44.90%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1360	26.95%	28.15%
23	1949-03-13	51.7	@ Drumconda	1	1394	52.77%	Limerick	1	1294	19.66%	27.57%
24	1949-04-19	51.7	Transport	2	1267	17.04%	@ Dundalk	1	1396	55.77%	27.19%
25	1948-12-12	51.6	@ Limerick	3	1301	33.69%	Dundalk	2	1351	38.05%	28.26%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1949-01-02	30.6	@ Dundalk	4	1341	48.74%	Waterford	0	1278	23.33%	27.93%
2	1949-01-02	33.2	@ Cork Athletic	3	1294	41.15%	Transport	0	1291	30.59%	28.26%
3	1949-01-23	33.4	@ Waterford	5	1295	41.13%	Transport	0	1292	30.61%	28.26%
4	1949-01-30	34.4	Shelbourne	2	1415	48.82%	@ Limerick	0	1282	23.46%	27.72%
5	1949-01-08	34.8	Shelbourne	6	1385	43.23%	@ Bohemian	0	1297	28.68%	28.09%
6	1949-02-06	34.8	Dundalk	4	1403	53.58%	@ Bohemian	1	1228	19.22%	27.19%
7	1949-04-16	36.0	Drumconda	3	1407	56.99%	@ Bohemian	1	1198	16.34%	26.67%
8	1948-12-19	37.0	@ Cork Athletic	2	1284	37.09%	Limerick	0	1310	34.61%	28.29%
9	1949-03-20	37.0	Waterford	2	1342	38.10%	@ Cork Athletic	0	1292	33.64%	28.26%
10	1948-12-26	37.2	@ Sligo Rovers	3	1451	58.24%	Bohemian	1	1295	14.97%	26.78%
11	1949-02-27	37.5	@ Waterford	5	1340	55.40%	Bohemian	2	1214	17.36%	27.24%
12	1949-04-18	37.5	@ Shelbourne	3	1454	57.83%	Limerick	1	1302	15.31%	26.86%
13	1949-01-30	37.8	Dundalk	2	1386	38.39%	@ Cork Athletic	0	1333	33.36%	28.25%
14	1949-04-03	38.2	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1360	32.44%	Dundalk	0	1419	39.33%	28.23%
15	1948-12-27	38.4	@ Drumconda	1	1350	46.91%	Cork Athletic	0	1302	25.04%	28.05%
16	1949-01-16	38.5	@ Cork Athletic	3	1308	47.60%	Bohemian	1	1254	24.39%	28.01%
17	1949-01-29	38.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1342	41.87%	Waterford	1	1333	29.88%	28.24%
18	1948-12-12	38.9	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1359	48.77%	Cork Athletic	1	1296	23.30%	27.93%
19	1948-12-18	39.3	@ Shelbourne	3	1355	47.39%	Transport	1	1303	24.59%	28.02%
20	1949-04-24	39.3	Waterford	5	1321	34.70%	@ Limerick	1	1294	37.00%	28.29%
21	1949-04-03	39.7	Shelbourne	5	1441	52.76%	@ Cork Athletic	2	1274	19.94%	27.30%
22	1949-02-05	39.8	@ Shelbourne	1	1428	49.11%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1362	22.99%	27.90%
23	1949-04-17	40.0	@ Dundalk	2	1391	55.76%	Cork Athletic	1	1261	17.05%	27.19%
24	1949-03-06	40.1	Sligo Rovers	2	1376	53.35%	@ Bohemian	1	1203	19.42%	27.22%
25	1949-02-06	40.2	@ Sligo Rovers	5	1400	51.15%	Cork Athletic	2	1316	21.11%	27.73%